This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #459 with Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert.
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While it does get super technical, we try to make sure that it’s still accessible to folks outside of the AI field by defining terms, stating important concepts explicitly, spelling out acronyms, and in general, always moving across the several layers of abstraction and levels of detail. There is a lot of hype in the media about what AI is and isn’t. The purpose of this podcast in part is to cut through the hype, through the bullshit and the low resolution analysis and to discuss in detail how stuff works and what the implications are. Let me also, if I may comment on the new OpenAI o3-mini reasoning model, the release of which we were anticipating during the conversation and it did indeed come out right after. Its capabilities and costs are on par with our expectations as we stated. OpenAI o3-mini is indeed a great model, but it should be stated that DeepSeek-R1 has similar performance on benchmarks, is still cheaper and it reveals its chain of thought reasoning, which o3-mini does not. It only shows a summary of the reasoning, plus R1 is open weight and o3-mini is not.
By the way, I got a chance to play with o3-mini and anecdotal vibe check wise, I felt that o3-mini, specifically o3-mini high is better than R1. Still for me personally, I find that Claude Sonnet 3.5 is the best model for programming except for tricky cases where I will use o1 Pro to brainstorm. Either way, many more better AI models will come including reasoning models both from American and Chinese companies. They’ll continue to shift the cost curve, but the quote “DeepSeek moment” is indeed real. I think it will still be remembered five years from now as a pivotal event in tech history due in part to the geopolitical implications, but for other reasons to, as we discuss in detail from many perspectives in this conversation. This is the Lex Fridman podcast, to support it please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert.
This reasoning model has a lot of overlapping training steps to DeepSeek-V3, and it’s confusing that you have a base model called V3 that you do something to to get a chat model and then you do some different things to get a reasoning model. I think a lot of the AI industry is going through this challenge of communications right now where OpenAI makes fun of their own naming schemes. They have GPT-4o, they have OpenIA o1, and there’s a lot of types of models, so we’re going to break down what each of them are. There’s a lot of technical specifics on training and go through them high level to specific and go through each of them.
There’s still a lot of debate on the definition and soul of open source AI. Open source software has a rich history on freedom to modify, freedom to take on your own, freedom for many restrictions on how you would use the software and what that means for AI is still being defined. For what I do, I work at the Allen Institute for AI, we’re a nonprofit, we want to make AI open for everybody and we try to lead on what we think is truly open source. There’s not full agreement in the community, but for us that means releasing the training data, releasing the training code, and then also having open weights like this. And we’ll get into the details of the models and again and again as we try to get deeper into how the models were trained, we will say things like the data processing, data filtering data quality is the number one determinant of the model quality.
And then a lot of the training code is the determinant on how long it takes to train and how fast your experimentation is. Without fully open source models where you have access to this data, it is hard to know… Or it’s harder to replicate. We’ll get into cost numbers for DeepSeek-V3 on mostly GPU hours and how much you could pay to rent those yourselves. But without the data, the replication cost is going to be far, far higher. And same goes for the code.
And this is all fantastic. I think the closest peer is something like Llama where you have the weights and you have a technical report. And the technical report is very good for Llama. One of the most read PDFs of the year last year is the Llama 3 paper, but in some ways it’s slightly less actionable. It has less details on the training specifics. I think less plots and so on. And the Llama 3 license is more restrictive than MIT. And then between the DeepSeek custom license and the Llama license, we could get into this whole rabbit hole, I think. We’ll make sure we want to go down the license rabbit hole before we do specifics.
We’ll get into some of these words and this is what they did to create the DeepSeek-V3 model. This was the first model to be released and it is very high performant, it’s competitive with GPT-4, Llama 405B and so on. And then when this release was happening, we don’t know their exact timeline or soon after they were finishing the training of a different training process from the same next token prediction based model that I talked about, which is when this new reasoning training that people have heard about comes in in order to create the model that is called DeepSeek-R1. The R through this conversation is good for grounding for reasoning. And the name is also similar to OpenAI’s o1, which is the other reasoning model that people have heard about. And we’ll have to break down the training for R1 in more detail because for one we have a paper detailing it, but also it is a far newer set of techniques for the AI community, so it is a much more rapidly evolving area of research.
This can be scaled to be very efficient and there’s a lot of numbers that are thrown around in AI training like how many floating-point operations or flops are used. And then you can also look at how many hours of these GPUs that are used. And it’s largely one loss function taken to a very large amount of compute usage. You set up really efficient systems and then at the end of that you have the base model and pre-training is where there is a lot more of complexity in terms of how the process is emerging or evolving and the different types of training losses that you’ll use. I think this is a lot of techniques grounded in the natural language processing literature. The oldest technique which is still used today is something called instruction tuning or also known as supervised fine-tuning. These acronyms will be IFT or SFT.
People really go back and forth throughout them, and I’ll probably do the same, which is where you add this formatting to the model where it knows to take a question that is, explain the history of the Roman Empire to me or a sort of question you’ll see on Reddit or Stack Overflow. And then the model will respond in a information-dense but presentable manner. The core of that formatting is in this instruction tuning phase. And then there’s two other categories of loss functions that are being used today. One I’ll classify as preference fine-tuning. Preference fine-tuning is a generalized term for what came out of reinforcement learning from human feedback, which is RLHF. This reinforcement learning from human feedback is credited as the technique that helped ChatGPT break through. It is a technique to make the responses that are nicely formatted like these Reddit answers more in tune with what a human would like to read.
This is done by collecting pairwise preferences from actual humans out in the world to start and now AIs are also labeling this data and we’ll get into those trade-offs. And you have this contrastive loss function between a good answer and a bad answer. And the model learns to pick up these trends. There’s different implementation ways. You have things called reward models. You could have direct alignment algorithms. There’s a lot of really specific things you can do, but all of this is about fine-tuning to human preferences. And the final stage is much newer and will link to what is done in R1 and these reasoning models is I think OpenAI’s name for this, they had this new API in the fall, which they called the reinforcement fine-tuning API. This is the idea that you use the techniques of reinforcement learning, which is a whole framework of AI.
There’s a deep literature here to summarize, it’s often known as trial and error learning or the subfield of AI where you’re trying to make sequential decisions in a certain potentially noisy environment. There’s a lot of ways we could go down that, but fine-tuning language models where they can generate an answer and then you check to see if the answer matches the true solution. For math or code you have an exactly correct answer for math, you can have unit tests for code. And what we’re doing is we are checking the language model’s work and we’re giving it multiple opportunities on the same questions to see if it is right. And if you keep doing this, the models can learn to improve in verifiable domains to a great extent. It works really well. It’s a newer technique in the academic literature. It’s been used at frontier labs in the US that don’t share every detail for multiple years. This is the idea of using reinforcement learning with language models and it has been taking off especially in this DeepSeek moment.
Cutting edge AI topics that I do research on, these models are capable for study aid and they’re regularly updated. Where this changes is with the DeepSeek- R1, what is called these reasoning models is when you see tokens coming from these models to start, it will be a large chain of thought process. We’ll get back to chain of thought in a second, which looks like a lot of tokens where the model is explaining the problem. The model will often break down the problem and be like, okay, they asked me for this. Let’s break down the problem. I’m going to need to do this. And you’ll see all of this generating from the model. It’ll come very fast in most user experiences. These APIs are very fast, so you’ll see a lot of tokens, a lot of words show up really fast, it’ll keep flowing on the screen and this is all the reasoning process.
And then eventually the model will change its tone in R1 and it’ll write the answer where it summarizes its reasoning process and writes a similar answer to the first types of model. But in DeepSeek’s case, which is part of why this was so popular even outside the AI community, is that you can see how the language model is breaking down problems. And then you get this answer, on a technical side they train the model to do this specifically where they have a section which is reasoning, and then it generates a special token, which is probably hidden from the user most of the time, which says, okay, I’m starting the answer. The model is trained to do this two stage process on its own. If you use a similar model in say, OpenAI, OpenAI’s user interface is trying to summarize this process for you nicely by showing the sections that the model is doing and it’ll click through, it’ll say breaking down the problem, making X calculation, cleaning the result, and then the answer will come for something like OpenAI.
Now, with a mixture of experts model, you don’t do that. How does the human actually work? Is like, oh, well my visual cortex is active when I’m thinking about vision tasks and other things. My amygdala is when I’m scared. These different aspects of your brain are focused on different things. A mixture of experts, models attempts to approximate this to some extent. It’s nowhere close to what a brain architecture is, but different portions of the model activate. You’ll have a set number of experts in the model and a set number that are activated each time. And this dramatically reduces both your training and inference costs because now if you think about the parameter count as the total embedding space for all of this knowledge that you’re compressing down during training, one, you’re embedding this data in instead of having to activate every single parameter, every single time you’re training or running inference, now you can just activate on a subset and the model will learn which expert to route to for different tasks.
And so this is a humongous innovation in terms of, hey, I can continue to grow the total embedding space of parameters. And so DeepSeek’s model is 600 something billion parameters, relative to Llama 405B, it’s 405 billion parameters, relative to Llama 70B, it’s 70 billion parameters. This model technically has more embedding space for information to compress all of the world’s knowledge that’s on the internet down. But at the same time, it is only activating around 37 billion of the parameters, so only 37 billion of these parameters actually need to be computed every single time you’re training data or inferencing data out of it. Versus again, the Llama model, 70 billion parameters must be activated or 405 billion parameters must be activated, so you’ve dramatically reduced your compute cost when you’re doing training and inference with this mixture of experts architecture.
This is one of the things that DeepSeek gets credit for is they do this extremely well. They do a mixture of experts extremely well. This architecture for what is called DeepSeek MoE, MoE is the shortened version of mixture of experts, is multiple papers old. This part of their training infrastructure is not new to these models alone. And same goes for what Dylan mentioned with multi-head latent attention. This is all about reducing memory usage during inference and same things during training by using some fancy low rank approximation math. If you get into the details with this latent attention, it’s one of those things I look at and it’s like, okay, they’re doing really complex implementations because there’s other parts of language models such as embeddings that are used to extend the context length, the common one that DeepSeek used is rotary positional embeddings, which is called RoPE.
And if you want to use RoPE with a normal MoE, it’s a sequential thing, you take two of the attention matrices and you rotate them by a complex value rotation, which is a matrix multiplication. With DeepSeek’s MLA, with this new attention architecture, they need to do some clever things because they’re not set up the same and it just makes the implementation complexity much higher. They’re managing all of these things, and these are probably the sort of things that OpenAI these closed labs are doing. We don’t know if they’re doing the exact same techniques, but they actually shared them with the world, which is really nice to be like, this is the cutting edge of efficient language model training.
Meta talked about in Llama 3, how they made their own custom version of NCCL. They didn’t talk about the implementation details. This is some of what they did, probably not as well as… Maybe not as well as DeepSeek because DeepSeek, necessity is the mother of innovation and they had to do this. OpenAI has people that do this sort of stuff, Anthropic, et cetera. But DeepSeek certainly did it publicly and they may have done it even better because they were gimped on a certain aspect of the chips that they have access to. And so they scheduled communications by scheduling specific SMs. SMs you could think of as the core on a GPU. There’s hundreds of cores or there’s a bit over a hundred cores SMs on a GPU. And they were specifically scheduling, hey, which ones are running the model? Which ones are doing allreduce? Which one are doing allgather? And they would flip back and forth between them. And this requires extremely low level programming.
So, you might have 1/4th of your model activate, and that’s what Mistral’s Mixtral model, right? They’re a model that really catapulted them to like, “Oh, my God. They’re really, really good.” OpenAI has also had models that are MoE and so have all the other labs that are major closed. But what DeepSeek did that maybe only the leading labs have only just started recently doing is have such a high sparsity factor, right? It’s not 1/4th of the model, right? Two out of eight experts activating every time you go through the model, it’s eight out of 256.
And one of the innovations in DeepSeek’s architecture is that they change the routing mechanism and mixture of expert models. There’s something called an auxiliary loss, which effectively means during training, you want to make sure that all of these experts are used across the tasks that the model sees.
Why there can be failures in mixture of experts is that when you’re doing this training, one objective is token prediction accuracy. And if you just let turning go with a mixture of expert model on your own, it can be that the model learns to only use a subset of the experts. And in the MoE literature, there’s something called the auxiliary loss which helps balance them.
But if you think about the loss functions of deep learning, this even connects to The Bitter Lesson, is that you want to have the minimum inductive bias in your model to let the model learn maximally. And this auxiliary loss, this balancing across experts could be seen as intention with the prediction accuracy of the tokens.
So we don’t know the exact extent that the DeepSeek MoE change, which is instead of doing an auxiliary loss, they have an extra parameter in their routing, which after the batches, they update this parameter to make sure that the next batches all have a similar use of experts. And this type of change can be big, it can be small, but they add up over time. And this is the sort of thing that just points to them innovating.
And I’m sure all the labs that are training big MoEs are looking at this sort of things, which is getting away from the auxiliary loss. Some of them might already use it, but you keep accumulating gains. And we’ll talk about the philosophy of training and how you organize these organizations. And a lot of it is just compounding small improvements over time in your data, in your architecture, in your post-training and how they integrate with each other.
DeepSeek does the same thing and some of them are shared, or a lot. We have to take them on face value that they share their most important details. I mean, the architecture and the weights are out there, so we’re seeing what they’re doing and it adds up.
And so you might have different experts on different GPU nodes, but now what happens when this set of data that you get, “Hey, all of it looks like this one way and all of it should route to one part of my model.” So when all of it routes to one part of the model, then you can have this overloading of a certain set of the GPU resources or a certain set of the GPUs and then the rest of the training network sits idle because all of the tokens are just routing to that.
So this is the biggest complexity, one of the big complexities with running a very sparse mixture of experts model i.e., this 32 ratio versus this four ratio, is that you end up with so many of the experts just sitting there idle. So how do I load balance between them? How do I schedule the communications between them? This is a lot of the extremely low-level, detailed work that they figured out in the public first, and potentially second or third in the world and maybe even first in some cases.
Is this a short-term leap because they’ve figured out a hack because constraints necessitate the mother of invention or is there still a lot of gains?
The scale word gets a lot of attention in this. The interpretation that I use is effectively to avoid adding the human priors to your learning process. And if you read the original essay, this is what it talks about is how researchers will try to come up with clever solutions to their specific problem that might get them small gains in the short term while simply enabling these deep learning systems to work efficiently, and for these bigger problems in the long term might be more likely to scale and continue to drive success.
And therefore, we were talking about relatively small implementation changes to the mixture of experts model. And therefore it’s like, “Okay, we will need a few more years to know if one of these were actually really crucial to The Bitter Lesson,” but The Bitter Lesson is really this long-term arc of how simplicity can often win.
And there’s a lot of sayings in the industry, “The models just want to learn. You have to give them the simple loss landscape where you put compute through the model and they will learn, and getting barriers out of the way.”
That’s something that could be with their specific low-level coding of scheduling SMs is specific to this model architecture and size. Whereas, Nvidia’s Collectives Library is more like, “Hey, it’ll work for anything,” right? “You want to do an allreduce? Great, I don’t care what your model architecture is, it’ll work,” and you’re giving up a lot of performance when you do that in many cases, but it’s worthwhile for them to do the specific optimization for the specific run given the constraints that they have regarding compute.
So you have the stressful period where it’s flat or it might start going up and you’re like, “What do I do?” Whereas, there are also loss spikes that are, it looks good and then there’s one spiky data point. And what you could do is you just skip those. You see that there’s a spike. You’re like, “Okay, I can ignore this data. Don’t update the model and do the next one, and it’ll recover quickly.”
But on trickier implementations, so as you get more complex in your architecture and you scale up to more GPUs, you have more potential for your loss blowing up. So it’s like, there’s a distribution.
And you look at the DeepSeek papers and models, they’ve scaled up, they’ve added complexity, and it’s just continuing to build the capabilities that they have.
A couple of researchers, few GPUs, tens of GPUs, hundreds of GPUs, whatever it is. And then all of a sudden you’re like, “Okay, guys. No more fucking around. No more screwing around. Everyone, take all the resources we have. Let’s pick what we think will work and just go for it. YOLO.”
And this is where that sort of stress comes in is like, “Well, I know it works here, but some things that work here don’t work here. And some things that work here don’t work down here in this terms of scale.” So it’s really truly a YOLO run. And there’s this discussion of certain researchers just have this methodical nature. They can find the whole search space and figure out all the ablations of different research and really see what is best. And there’s certain researchers who just have that innate gut instinct of like, “This is the YOLO run. I’m looking at the data. I think this is it.”
And when you zoom in really close, it can be really obvious that this model is just really bad at this thing and we can fix it and you just add these up. So some of it feels like luck, but on the ground, especially with these new reasoning models we’re talking to is just so many ways that we could poke around. And normally, it’s that some of them give big improvements.
In the past, a lot of these high-frequency trading, algorithmic quant traders used FPGAs, but it shifted to GPUs definitely. And there’s both, but GPUs especially. And High-Flyer, which is the hedge fund that owns DeepSeek, and everyone who works for DeepSeek is part of High-Flyer to some extent. Same parent company, same owner, same CEO, they had all these resources and infrastructure for trading, and then they devoted a humongous portion of them to training models, both language models and otherwise, because these techniques were heavily AI-influenced.
More recently, people have realized, “Hey, trading with …” Even when you go back to Renaissance and all these quantitative firms, natural language processing is the key to trading really fast, understanding a press release and making the right trade. And so DeepSeek has always been really good at this.
And even as far back as 2021, they have press releases and papers saying, “Hey, we’re the first company in China with an A100 cluster this large.” It was 10,000 A100 GPUs, right? This is in 2021. Now, this wasn’t all for training large language models. This was mostly for training models for their quantitative aspects, quantitative trading as well as a lot of that was natural language processing, to be clear. Right?
And so this is the sort of history, right? So verifiable fact is that in 2021, they built the largest cluster, at least they claim it was the largest cluster in China, 10,000 GPUs.
And so over that time period, he’s gotten really in depth into AI. He actually has a bit of a, if you see some of his statements, a bit of an IAK vibe almost, right?
And DeepSeek has done multiple models since then. They’ve acquired more and more GPUs. They share infrastructure with the fund. Right? And so there is no exact number of public GPU resources that they have. But besides this 10,000 GPUs that they bought in 2021, and they were fantastically profitable, and then this paper claims they did only 2,000 H800 GPUs, which are a restricted GPU that was previously allowed in China, but no longer allowed. And there’s a new version, but it’s basically Nvidia’s H100 for China.
And there’s some restrictions on it specifically around the communications sort of speed, the interconnect speed, which is why they had to do this crazy SM scheduling stuff. So going back to that, it’s like this is obviously not true in terms of their total GPU count.
And we know that they’re very profitable and they had 10,000 GPUs in 2021. So, some of the research that we’ve found is that we actually believe they have closer to 50,000 GPUs.
In China, there’ve been different salvos of expert restrictions. So initially, the U.S. government limited on a two-factor scale, which is chip interconnect versus FLOPs. So any chip that had interconnects above a certain level and FLOPs above a certain … Floating point operations above a certain level was restricted.
Later, the government realized that this was a flaw in the restriction and they cut it down to just floating point operations. And so-
And so that was back in October 2022. But later in 2023, into 2023 implemented in 2024, the U.S. government banned the H800. Right? And so by the way, this H800 cluster, these 2,000 GPUs was not even purchased in 2024. It was purchased in late 2023. And they’re just getting the model out now because it takes a lot of research, et cetera.
H800 was banned and now there’s a new chip called the H20. The H20 is cut back on only FLOPs, but the interconnect bandwidth is the same. And in fact, in some ways it’s better than the H100 because it has better memory bandwidth and memory capacity. So Nvidia is working within the constraints of what the government sets and then builds the best possible GPU for China.
And so because The United States is a democracy and as he says, China is authoritarian or has authoritarian elements, you want a unipolar world where the super powerful military, because of the AI is one that’s a democracy. It’s a much more complicated world geopolitically when you have two superpowers with super powerful AI and one is authoritarian.
So, that’s the case he makes. And so the United States wants to use export controls to slow down, to make sure that China can’t do these gigantic training runs that will be presumably required to build the AGI.
And if you think about the AI ecosystem right now, as all of these AI companies, revenue numbers are up and to the right. Their AI usage is just continuing to grow, more GPUs are going to inference. A large part of export controls, if they work is just that the amount of AI that can be run in China is going to be much lower.
So on the training side, DeepSeek V3 is a great example, which you have a very focused team that can still get to the frontier of AI on … This 2,000 GPUs is not that hard to get all considering in the world. They’re still going to have those GPUs. They’re still going to be able to train models. But if there’s going to be a huge market for AI, if you have strong export controls and you want to have 100,000 GPUs just serving the equivalent of ChatGPT clusters with good export controls, it also just makes it so that AI can be used much less.
And I think that is a much easier goal to achieve than trying to debate on what AGI is. And if you have these extremely intelligent autonomous AIs and data centers, those are the things that could be running in these GPU clusters in the United States, but not in China.
And so the U.S. government has effectively said … And forever, training will always be a portion of the total compute. We mentioned Meta’s 400,000 GPUs. Only 16,000 made Llama. Right? So the percentage that Meta’s dedicating to inference, now this might be for recommendation systems that are trying to hack our mind into spending more time and watching more ads, or if it’s for a super powerful AI that’s doing productive things, it doesn’t matter about the exact use that our economic system decides. It’s that, that can be delivered in whatever way we want.
Whereas with China, you know, your expert restrictions, great. You’re never going to be able to cut everything off. And I think that’s quite a well-understood by the U.S. government is that you can’t cut everything off.
And therefore, this compounding effect of the difference in compute is really important. There’s some sci-fi out there where AI is measured in how much power is delivered to compute, right, or how much is being … That’s sort of a way of thinking about what’s the economic output, is just how much power are you directing towards that AI?
But Dylan has good research on this. You can get to the specific numbers on the ratio of when you train a model, you can look at things. It’s about the amount of compute used at training and amount of compute used at inference.
These reasoning models are making inference way more important to doing complex tasks. In the fall in December, OpenAI announced this o3 model. There’s another thing in AI, when things move fast, we get both announcements and releases. Announcements are essentially blog posts where you pat yourself on the back and you say you did things and releases are when the model’s out there, the paper’s out there, et cetera.
So OpenAI has announced o3. I mean, we can check if o3-mini is out as of recording potentially, but that doesn’t really change the point, which is that the breakthrough result was something called ARC-AGI task, which is the abstract reasoning corpus, a task for artificial general intelligence. François Chollet is the guy who’s been … It’s a multi-year-old paper. It’s a brilliant benchmark. And the number for open AI o3 to solve this was that it used some sort of number of samples in the API. The API has thinking effort and number of samples. They used 1,000 samples to solve this task and it comes out to be five to $20 per question, which you’re putting in effectively a math puzzle. And then it takes orders of dollars to answer one question, and this is a lot of compute.
If those are going to take off in the U.S., OpenAI needs a ton of GPUs on inference to capture this. They have this OpenAI ChatGPT Pro subscription, which is $200 a month-
And if the main result for o3 is also a spectacular coding performance, and if that feeds back into AI companies being able to experiment better.
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that’s great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it’s a general intelligence to me.
But this next step of agentic things where they’re independent and they can do tasks that aren’t in the training data is what the few-year outlook that these AI companies are driving for.
So it’s something that it’s too soon to tell in terms of… I think that’s political instability via the web is very… It’s monitored by a lot of researchers to see what’s happening. I think that… You’re asking about the AGI thing. If you’re making me give a year, I’m going to be like, “Okay, I have AI CEOs saying this. They’ve been saying two years for a while. I think that there are people like Dario at Anthropic, the CEO, has thought about this so deeply. I need to take their word seriously, but also understand that they have different incentives.” So I would be like, “Add a few years to that.” Which is how you get something similar to 2030 or a little after 2030.
But at that moment, who gets to control and point the AGI at a task? And so this was in Dario’s post that he’s like, “Hey, China can effectively and more quickly than us, point their AGI at military tasks.” And they have been, in many ways, faster at adopting certain new technologies into their military, especially with regards to drones. The US maybe has a long-standing large air sort of fighter jet type of thing, bombers. But when it comes to asymmetric arms such as drones, they’ve completely leapfrogged the US and the West.
And the fear that Dario is sort of pointing out there, I think, is that, yeah, great, we’ll have AGI in the commercial sector. The US military won’t be able to implement it superfast. Chinese military could and they could direct all their resources to implementing it in the military, and therefore solving military logistics or solving some other aspect of disinformation for targeted certain set of people so they can flip a country’s politics or something like that that is actually catastrophic versus the US just wants to… Because it’ll be more capitalistically allocated just towards whatever is the highest return on income, which might be building factories better or whatever.
So that’s the thing I’m really worried about. But there could be cyber war, cyber war type of technologies that from social engineering to actually just swarms of robots that find attack vectors in our code bases and shut down power grids, that kind of stuff. And it could be one of those things like on any given weekend or something, power goes out, nobody knows why, and the world changes forever. Just power going out for two days in all of the United States, that will lead to murder, to chaos. But going back to export controls, do you see that as a useful way to control the balance of power geopolitically in the context of AI?
But if China decided to, they could do it faster than us, but this is where the restrictions come in. It is not clear that China as a whole has decided from the highest levels that this is a priority. The US sort of has. You see Trump talking about DeepSeek and Stargate within the same week. And the Biden admin as well had a lot of discussions about AI and such. It’s clear that they think about it. Only just last week did DeepSeek meet the second in command of China. They have not even met the top, they haven’t met Xi, Xi hasn’t set down, and they only just released a subsidy of a trillion RMB, roughly $160 billion, which is closer to the spending of Microsoft and Meta and Google combined for this year. So they’re realizing it just now. But that’s where these export restrictions come in and say, “Hey, you can’t ship the most powerful US chips to China. You can ship a cut-down version. You can’t ship the most powerful chips to all these countries who we know are just going to rent it to China. You have to limit the numbers.”
They thought EVs and renewables were the most important technology. They dominate that now. Now, they started thinking about semiconductors in the late 2010s and early 2020s and now they’ve been dumping money and they’re catching up rapidly and they’re going to do the same with AI because they’re very talented. So the question is, when does this hit a breaking point? And if China sees this as, “Hey, they can continue…” If not having access and starting a true hot war, taking over Taiwan or trying to subvert its democracy in some way or blockading it hurts the rest of the world far more than it hurts them, this is something they could potentially do. And so is this pushing them towards that? Potentially. I’m not quite a geopolitical person, but it’s obvious that the world regime of peace and trade is super awesome for economics, but at some point, it could break.
And so you look at a leading-edge fab that is going to be profitable today, that’s building three nanometer chips or two nanometer chips in the future, that’s going to cost north of 30, $40 billion. And that’s just for a token amount. That’s like the base building blocking. You probably need to build multiple. And so when you look at the industry over the last, if I go back 20, 30 years ago, there were 20, 30 companies that could build the most advanced chips, and then they would design them themselves and sell them. So companies like AMD would build their own chips. Intel, of course, still builds their own chips. They’re very famous for it. IBM would build their own chips. And you could just keep going down the list. All these companies built their own chips.
Slowly, they kept falling like flies, and that’s because of what TSMC did. They created the Foundry business model, which is, I’m not going to design any chips. I’m just going to contract manufacturer chips for other people. And one of their early customers is NVIDIA. NVIDIA is the only semiconductor company doing more than $1 billion of revenue that was started in the era of foundry. Every other company started before then, and at some point had fabs, which is actually incredible. Like AMD and Intel and Broadcom-
Google is not just running on Intel CPUs for web serving. They have a YouTube chip, they have TPUs, they have Pixel chips, they have a wide diversity of chips that generate all the economic value of Google. It’s running all the services and stuff. And this is just Google. And you could go across any company in the industry, and it’s like this. Cars contain 5,000 chips, 200 different varieties of them. All these random things. A Tesla door handle has two chips. It’s ridiculous. And it’s a cool door handle. You don’t think about it, but it has two really chip, penny chips in there. Anyways, so as you have more diversity of chips, as you have more specialization required and the cost of fabs continues to grow, you need someone who is laser focused on building the best process technology and making it as flexible as possible.
And so you get more diversity of chips, you have more companies than ever designing chips, but you have fewer companies than ever manufacturing them. And this is where TSMC comes in, is they’ve just been the best. They are so good at it. They’re customer focused, they make it easy for you to fabricate your chips. They take all of that complexity and kind of try and abstract a lot of it away from you. They make good money. They don’t make insane money, but they make good money and they’re able to aggregate all this demand and continue to build the next fab, the next fab, the next fab.
Second is the work ethic. We like to work. You work a lot, we work a lot, but at the end of the day, what does the time and amount of work that you’re doing and what does a fab require? Fabs are not work from home jobs. They are you go into the fab and grueling work. There’s hey, if there is any amount of vibration, an earthquake happens, vibrates the machines, they’re either broken, you’ve scrapped some of your production. And then in many cases, they’re not calibrated properly. So when there’s an earthquake, recently, there’s been a earthquake, TSMC doesn’t call their employees, they just go to the fab and they just show up. The parking lot gets slammed, and people just go into the fab and fix it. It’s like ants. It’s like a hive of ants doesn’t get told by the queen what to do. The ants just know.
You’ve invested in the wrong things. They said no to the iPhone. They had all these different things regarding mismanagement of the fabs and mismanagement of designs, this lockup. And at the same time, all these brilliant people, these 50,000 PhDs or masters that have been working on specific chemical or physical processes or nanomanufacturing processes for decades, in Oregon, they’re still there, they’re still producing amazing work. It’s just getting it to the last mile of production at high yield where you can manufacture dozens and hundreds of different kinds of chips, and good customer experience has broken.
It’s that customer experience. Part of it is people will say, Intel was too pompous in the 2000s, 2010s. They just thought they were better than everyone. The tool guys were like, “Oh, I don’t think that this is mature enough.” And they’re like, “Ah, you just don’t know. We know.” This sort of stuff would happen. And so can the US bring leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing to the US? [inaudible 01:42:44] yes. And we are. It’s happening.
These three places are doing the leading-edge R&D for the rest of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors. Now, manufacturing can be distributed more globally. And this is sort of where this dichotomy exists of who’s actually modifying the process, who’s actually developing the next generation one, who’s improving them is Hsinchu, is Hillsboro, is Pyongyang. It is not the rest of these fabs like Arizona. Arizona is a paperweight. If Hsinchu disappeared off the face of the planet, within a year, couple years, Arizona would stop producing too. It’s actually pretty critical. One of the things I like to say is if I had a few missiles, I know exactly where I could cause the most economic damage. It’s not targeting the White House.
Now they still have to buy some chips from foreign, for example, around like self-driving ADAS capabilities because those are really high-end, but at least … A internal combustion engine has 40 chips in an EV, just for controlling flow rates and all these things, and EVs are even more complicated. So all these different power ICs and battery management controllers and all these things, they’re insourcing.
And this is something that China has been doing since 2015. Now, as far as the trailing edge, they’re getting so much capacity there. As far as the leading edge, i.e. this five nanometer and so on and so forth, where GPUs, they are still behind. The US restrictions are trying to stop them in the latter, but all that’s happened is yes, they’ve slowed down their five nanometer, three nanometer, et cetera, but they’ve accelerated their, hey, 45 nanometer, 90 nanometer power IC or analog IC or random chip in my keyboard, that kind of stuff.
So there is an angle of, the US’ actions, from the angle of the expert controls, have been so inflammatory at slowing down China’s progress on the leading edge that they’ve turned around and have accelerated their progress elsewhere because they know that this is so important. If the US is going to lock them out here, “what if they lock us out here as well in the trailing edge?”
And so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it’s going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.
And it’s an element of culture, yeah, sure. Taiwan works that hard. But also, like the US has done it in the past, they could do it now. We can just import, I say import, the best people in the world if we want to.
But they also have differences in terms of, hey, there’s just tax benefits in the law and have been in the law for 20 years. And then some countries have massive subsidies. China has something like $200 billion of semiconductor subsidies a year. We’re talking about $50 billion in the US over like six. So the girth or difference in the subsidy amounts is also huge.
And so I think Trump has been talking about tariffing Taiwan recently. That’s one of these things that’s like, “Oh, okay, well, maybe he doesn’t want to subsidize the US semiconductor industry.” Obviously tariffing Taiwan is going to cost a lot of things to get much more expensive, but does it change the equation for TSMC building more fabs in the US? That’s what he’s positing.
So in this game theory, complicated game, what are the different trajectories? What should US be doing? What do you see as the different possible trajectories of US-China relations as both leaders start to feel the AGI more and more and see the importance of chips and the importance of AI.
There’s all these things that are happening that point to further and further divergence. I have zero idea, and I would love if we could all hold hands and sing Kumbaya, but I have zero idea how that could possibly happen.
Now what happens when it’s not one global hegemon but it’s two, obviously … And China will be competitive or even overtake the US, it’s possible. And so this change in global hegemony, I don’t think it ever happens super peacefully. When empires fall, which is a possible trajectory for America, they don’t fall gracefully. They don’t just slide out of irrelevance. Usually there’s a lot of shaking. And so what the US is trying to do is maintain its top position, and what China is trying to do is become the top position. And obviously there’s butting of heads here, in the most simple terms.
And so this H20 has been neutered in one way, but it’s actually upgraded in other ways. And you could think of chips along three axes for AI, ignoring software stack and exact architecture, just raw specifications. There’s floating point operations, FLOPS. There is memory bandwidth, i.e. in-memory capacity, IO memory. And then there is interconnect, chip-to-chip interconnections. All three of these are incredibly important for making AI systems. Because AI systems involve a lot of compute, they involve a lot of moving memory around, whether it be to memory or too other chips.
And so these three vectors, the US initially had two of these vectors controlled and one of them not controlled, which was FLOPS and interconnect bandwidth were initially controlled. And then they said, “No, no, no, no. We’re going to remove the interconnect bandwidth and just make it a very simple, only FLOPS.” But now Nvidia can now make a chip that has … okay, it’s cut down on FLOPS, so one-third that of the H100 on spec sheet paper performance for FLOPs. In real world it’s closer to half or maybe even 60% of it. But then on the other two vectors, it’s just as good for interconnect bandwidth. And then for memory bandwidth and memory capacity, the H20 has more memory bandwidth and more memory capacity than the H100.
Now recently we, at our research, we cut Nvidia’s production for H20 for this year down drastically. They were going to make another two million of those this year, but they just canceled all the orders a couple of weeks ago. In our view that’s because we think that they think they’re going to get restricted, because why would they cancel all these orders for H20? Because they shipped a million of them last year, they had orders in for a couple million this year, and just gone right. For H20, B20, a successor to H20, and now they’re all gone.
Now why would they do this? I think it’s very clear, the H20 is actually better for certain tasks. And that certain task is reasoning. Reasoning is incredibly different than … When you look at the different regimes of models. Pre-training is all about FLOPS, it’s all about FLOPS. There’s things you do, like Mixture of Experts that we talked about, to trade off interconnect or to trade off other aspects and lower the FLOPS and rely more on interconnect and memory.
But at the end of the day, FLOPS is everything. We talk about models in terms of how many FLOPS they are. So we talk about, oh, GPT-4 is 2e25. Two to the 25th, 25 zeros FLOP, floating point operations for training. And we’re talking about the restrictions for the 2e24, or 25, whatever. The US has an executive order that Trump recently unsigned, which was, hey, 1e26, once you hit that number of floating point operations, you must notify the government and you must share your results with us. There’s a level of model where the US government must be told, and that’s 1e26.
And so as we move forward, this is an incredibly important … FLOP is the vector that the government has cared about historically, but the other two vectors are arguably just as important. And especially when we come to this new paradigm, which the world is only just learning about over the last six months: reasoning.
And what effectively happens is that when you’re doing these matrix multiplications, you’re having matrices that are of the size of the context length, so the number of tokens that you put into the model. And the KV cache is effectively some form of compressed representation of all the previous tokens in the model. So when you’re doing this, we talk about autoregressive models, you predict one token at a time. You start with whatever your prompt was, you ask a question, like who was the president in 1825. The model then is going to generate its first token.
For each of these tokens you’re doing the same attention operator where you’re multiplying these query, key-value matrices. But the math is very nice so that when you’re doing this repeatedly, this KV cache, this key-value operation, you can keep appending the new values to it, so you keep track of what your previous values you were inferring over in this autoregressive chain, you keep it in-memory the whole time. And this is a really crucial thing to manage when serving inference at scale. There are far bigger experts in this and there are so many levels of detail that you can go into.
Essentially one of the key, quote unquote, “drawbacks” of the attention operator and the transformer is that there is a form of quadratic memory cost in proportion to the context length. So as you put in longer questions, the memory used in order to make that computation is going up in the form of a quadratic. You’ll hear about a lot of other language model architectures that are sub quadratic or linear attention forms, which is like State Space Models. We don’t need to go down all these now. And then there’s innovations on attention to make this memory usage and the ability to attend over long contexts much more accurate and high performance.
So there’s two things. It’s, one, to be able to serve this on the memory level. Google has magic with their TPU stack where they can serve really long contexts. And then there’s also many decisions along the way to actually make long context performance work that supplies the data. There’s subtle changes to these computations in attention and it changes the architecture. But serving long context is extremely memory constrained, especially when you’re making a lot of predictions. I actually don’t know why input and output tokens are more expensive, but I think essentially output tokens, you have to do more computation because you have to sample from the model.
And so when you do that, that is a parallel operation. All of the tokens can be processed at one time and therefore you can dramatically reduce how much you’re spending. The FLOP requirements for generating a token and an input token are identical. If I input one token or if I generate one token, it’s completely identical. I have to go through the model. But the difference is that I can do that input, i.e. the prefill, i.e. the prompt, simultaneously in a batch nature and therefore it is all FLOP.
And so therefore, this is a non-parallel operation. And this is one where you have to, in the case of prefill or prompt, you pull the whole model in and you calculate 20,000 tokens at once, 20,000-
But it’s very different than we’re leading to these reasoning models, which we showed this example earlier and read some of this mumbling stuff. And what happens is that the output context length is so much higher. And I mean, I learned a lot about this from Dylan’s work, which is essentially as the output work length gets higher, you’re writing this quadratic in terms of memory used. And then the GPUs that we have, effectively you’re going to run out of memory and they’re all trying to serve multiple requests at once. So they’re doing this batch processing where not all of the prompts are exactly the same, really complex handling.
And then as context links gets longer, there’s this, I think you call it critical batch size, where your ability to serve more users, so how much you can parallelize your inference plummets because of this long context. So your memory usage is going way up with these reasoning models and you still have a lot of users, so effectively the cost to serve multiplies by a ton.
Now with reasoning and agents, this is a very different idea. Now instead I might only have like, hey, do this task, or I might have all these documents, but at the end of the day, the model is not just producing a little bit, it’s producing tons of information, this chain of thought-
And so what this chart is showing, and it’s a logarithmic chart, is as you grow from 1K to 4K or 4K to 16K, the memory requirements grow so fast for your KV cache that you end up not being able to run a certain number of … Your sequence length is capped or the number of users you could serve-
And so with reasoning models, this is where a lot of the complexity comes about and why memory is so important. Because if you have limited amounts of memory, then you can’t serve so many users. If you have limited amounts of memory, your serving speeds get lower. And so your costs get a lot, lot worse because all of a sudden if I was used to, hey, on this $16 an hour server I’m serving Llama 405B, or if I’m serving DeepSeek-V3 and it’s all chat style applications, i.e. we’re just chit-chatting, the sequence length are a thousand, a few thousand. When you use a language model, it’s a few thousand context length most of times. Sometimes you’re dropping a big document, but then you process it, you get your answer, you throw it away, you move on to the next thing.
Whereas with reasoning, I’m now generating tens of thousands of tokens in sequence. And so this memory, this KV cache, has to stay resonant and you have to keep loading it, you have to keep it in-memory constantly. And now this butts out other users. If there’s now a reasoning task and the model’s capable of reasoning, then all of a sudden that memory pressure means that I can’t serve as many users simultaneously.
So DeepSeek hit this. They also launched an API product recently where you can ping their API and get these super long responses for R1 out. At the same time as these are out, we’ll get to what’s happened to them. Because the model weights for DeepSeek-R1 are openly available and the license is very friendly, the MIT license commercially available, all of these midsize companies and big companies are trying to be first to serve R1 to their users.
We are trying to evaluate R1 because we have really similar research going on. We released the model and we’re trying to compare to it. And out of all the companies that are, quote unquote, “serving” R1 and they’re doing it at prices that are way higher than the DeepSeek API, most of them barely work and the throughput is really low.
Now, others have already innovated. There’s a lot of work like MQA, GQA, local, global, all these different innovations that try to bend the curve. It’s still quadratic, but the constant is now smaller.
So it is cheaper. A part of that, is OpenAI making a ton of money? Is DeepSeek making on their API? Unknown, I don’t actually think so. And part of that is this chart. Look at all the other providers. Together AI, Fireworks.ai are very high-end companies. Ex-Meta, Together AI is [inaudible 02:14:53] and the inventor of FlashAttention, which is a huge efficiency technique. There a very efficient, good companies. And I do know those companies make money, not tons of money on inference, but they make money. And so they’re serving at a five to 7X difference in cost.
And so now when you equate, okay, OpenAI is making tons of money, that’s like a 5x difference, and the companies that are trying to make money for this model is like a 5x difference, there is still a gap. There’s still a gap and that is just DeepSeek being really freaking good. The model architecture, MLA, the way they did the MoE, all these things, there is legitimate just efficiency differences.
I think they’re just shipping as fast as they can, and who cares about Christmas, who cares about … Get it out before Chinese New Year, obviously, which just happened. I don’t think they actually were timing the market or trying to make the biggest splash possible, I think they’re just shipping.
But there’s reviews internally. Anthropic mentions things to international governments. There’s been news of how Anthropic has done pre-release testing with the UK AI Safety Institute. All of these things add inertia to the process of getting things out. And we’re on this trend line where the progress is very high. So if you reduce the time from when your model is done training, you run the vals, it’s good. You want to get it out as soon as possible to maximize the perceived quality of your outputs. DeepSeek does this so well.
And chain-of-thought models are that way. This is a true, quote unquote, “risk” between a chat application where, hey, I asked the model to say bad words or whatever or how to make anthrax, and it tells me. That’s unsafe, sure, but that’s something I can get out relatively easily. What if I tell the AI to do a task and then it does the task all of a sudden randomly in a way that I don’t want it, and now that has much more … Task versus response is very different. So the bar for safety is much higher-
We talk about the cost of training. DeepSeek has this shocking $5 million number. Think about how many entities in the world can afford a hundred times that to have the best open-source model that people use in the world. And it’s a scary reality, which is that these open models are probably going to keep coming for the time being, whether or not we want to stop them, and stopping them might make it even worse and harder to prepare. But it just means that the preparation and understanding what AI can do is just so much more important. That’s why I’m here at the end of the day. But it’s letting that sink into people, especially not in AI, is that this is coming. There are some structural things in a global interconnected world that you have to accept.
Now, when you release this publicly in an instruct model that’s open- weights, this can then proliferate, but as these systems get more and more capable, what you can embed deep down in the model is not as clear. And so that is one of the big fears is if an American model or a Chinese model is the top model, you are going to embed things that are unclear. And it can be unintentional too. British English is dead because American LLMs won and the internet is American, and therefore, color is spelled the way Americans spell, and this is-
I don’t think they meant to do this, but this was in the model weight, so it didn’t necessarily be… There’s things called system prompts, which are when you’re querying a model. It’s a piece of text that is shown to the model but not to the user. So, a fun example is your system prompt could be, “Talk like a pirate,” so no matter what the user says to the model, it’ll respond like a pirate. In practice, what they are is, “You’re a helpful assistant. You should break down problems. If you don’t know about something, don’t tell them your date cutoff is this. Today’s date is this.” It’s a lot of really useful context for how can you answer a question well.
Let’s go back to post-training specifically RLHF around Llama 2. It was too much safety prioritization was baked into the model weights. This makes you refuse things in a really annoying way for users. It’s not great. It caused a lot of awareness to be attached to RLHF that it makes the models dumb-
So this takes us through the arc of… We’ve talked about pre-training, hard to get rid of things. We’ve talked about post-training and how post-training… You can mess it up. It’s a complex multifaceted optimization with 10 to 100 person teams converging at one artifact. It’s really easy to not do it perfectly.
And then there’s the third case, which is what we talked about Gemini. The thing that was about Gemini is this was a served product where Google has their internal model weights. They’ve done all these processes that we talked about, and in the served product, what came out after this was that they had a prompt that they were rewriting user queries to boost diversity or something. And this just made it… The outputs were just blatantly wrong. It was some sort of organizational failure that had this prompt in that position, and I think Google executives probably have owned this. I don’t pay that attention, that detail, but it was just a mess-up in execution that led to this ridiculous thing, but at the system level, the model weights might have been fine.
Now, it is the case that there are many model options that are way better than humans at writing detailed and eloquent answers for things like model and code. So they talked about this with the Llama 3 release, where they switched to using Llama 3, 4, or 5B to write their answers for math and code. But they, in their paper, talk about how they use extensive human preference data, which is something that they haven’t gotten AIs to replace. There are other techniques in industry, like constitutional AI, where you use human data for preferences and AI for preferences, and I expect the AI part to scale faster than the human part. But among the research that we have access to is that humans are in this kind of preference loop.
The DeepSeek-R1-Full model has some of this human preference tuning, this RLHF, after the reasoning stage. But the very remarkable thing is that you can get these reasoning behaviors, and it’s very unlikely that there’s humans writing out reasoning chains. It’s very unlikely that they somehow hacked OpenAI and they got access to OpenAI o-1’s reasoning chains. It’s something about the pre-trained language models and this RL training where you reward the model for getting the question right, and therefore it’s trying multiple solutions and it emerges this chain of thought.
My favorite simple example is AlphaGo. One, is learning by imitating expert players. Two, is reinforcement learning to win the game. Almost every single shocking result of deep learning and the source of all magic is always two.
Two is significantly more powerful. Two is what surprises you. Two is when the paddle learns to hit the ball behind the blocks in Breakout. Two is when AlphaGo beats even Lee Sedol. And two is the “aha moment” when the DeepSeek or o1, et cetera, discovers that it works well to reevaluate your assumptions, backtrack, try something else, et cetera.
It’s the solving strategies you see this model use in its chain of thought. It’s how it goes back and forth thinking to itself. These thoughts are emergent. Three exclamation points. And this is actually seriously incredible, impressive, and new, and is publicly available and documented.
The model could never learn this with the imitation because the cognition of the model and the cognition of the human labeler is different. The human would never know to correctly annotate these kinds of solving strategies and what they should even look like. They have to be discovered during reinforcement learning as empirically and statistically useful towards the final outcome.”
Anyway, the AlphaZero metaphor analogy here. Can you speak to that? The magic of the chain of thought that he’s referring to.
And then there’s been a lot of discussion in language models. This is not new. This goes back to the whole Q-Star rumors, which if you piece together the pieces, is probably the start of OpenAI figuring out its o1 stuff when last year in November, the Q-Star rumors came out, there’s a lot of intellectual drive to know when is something like this going to happen with language models? Because we know these models are so powerful, and we know it has been so successful in the past. And it is a reasonable analogy that this new type of reinforcement learning training for reasoning models is when the doors open to this. We don’t yet have the equivalent of turn 37, which is the famous turn where the DeepMind’s AI playing Go’s, dumped Lee Sedol completely. We don’t have something that’s that level of focal point, but that doesn’t mean that the approach to technology is different, and the impact of the general training it’s still incredibly new.
And now we have something that is similar to that with these verifiable proofs, whether it’s a unit testing code or a mathematical verifiable task, generate many traces of reasoning and keep branching them out, keep branching them out, and then check at the end, hey, which one actually has the right answer? Most of them are wrong. Great. These are the few that are right. Maybe we use some sort of reward model outside of this to select even the best one to preference, as well. But now you’ve started to get better and better at these benchmarks. And so you’ve seen over the last six months a skyrocketing in a lot of different benchmarks.
And so this is where I think the aha moment of computer use or robotics will come in because now you have a sandbox or a playground that is infinitely verifiable. Messing around on the internet. There are so many actions that you can do that are verifiable. It’ll start off with log into a website, create an account, click a button here, blah, blah, blah. But it’ll then get to the point where it’s, “Hey, go do a task on Tasker,” or whatever, all these various task websites. “Hey, go get hundreds of likes,” and it’s going to fail. It’s going to spawn hundreds of accounts. It’s going to fail on most of them, but this one got to a thousand. Great. Now, you’ve reached the verifiable thing, and you just keep iterating this loop over and over. And same with robotics. That’s where you have an infinite playground of tasks like, “Hey, did I put the ball in the bucket,” all the way to like, “Oh, did I build a car?”
There’s a whole trajectory to speed run or what models can do. But at some point, I truly think that we’ll spawn models, and initially, all the training will be in sandboxes, but then, at some point, the language model pre-training is going to be dwarfed by what is this reinforcement learning… You’ll pre-train a multimodal model that can see, that can read, that can write, blah, blah, blah, whatever, vision, audio, et cetera. But then you’ll have it play in a sandbox infinitely, and figure out math, figure out code, figure out navigating the web, figure out operating a robot arm. And then it’ll learn so much. And the aha moment will be when this is available to then create something that’s not good, right? Oh, cool. Part of it was figuring out how to use the web. Now, all of a sudden, it’s figured out really well how to just get hundreds of thousands of followers that are real and real engagement on Twitter because, all of a sudden, this is one of the things that are verifiable.
The space of language and the space of tokens, whether you’re generating language or tasks or robot is so big that you might say that… The tokenizer for a language model can be like 200,000 things, so at each step, it can sample from that big of a space. So if it can generate a bit of a signal that it can climb onto, that’s what the whole field of RL is around, is learning from sparse rewards. And the same thing has played out in math, where it’s very weak models that sometimes generate answers where you see research already that you can boost their math scores, you can do this RL training for math, it might not be as effective, but if you take a 1 billion parameter model, so something 600 times smaller than DeepSeek, you can boost its grade school…
So, some of this transfer, we looked at this philosophical example early on. One of the big open questions is, how much does this transfer? If we bring in domains after the reasoning training, are all the models going to become eloquent writers by reasoning? Is this philosophy stuff going to be open? We don’t know in the research of how much this will transfer. There’s other things about how we can make soft verifiers and things like this, but there is more training after reasoning, which makes it easier to use these reasoning models. And that’s what we’re using right now. So if we’re going to talk about o3-mini and o1, these have gone through these extra techniques that are designed for human preferences after being trained to elicit reasoning.
My quick read is that Gemini Flash is not trained the same way as o1, but taking an existing training stack, adding reasoning to it, so taking a more normal training stack and adding reasoning to it, and I’m sure they’re going to have more. I mean they’ve done quick releases on Gemini Flash, reasoning, and this is the second version from the holidays. It’s evolving fast and it takes longer to make this training stack where you’re doing this large scale RL-
Hello, everyone, this is Lex with a quick intermission recorded after the podcast since we’ve reviewed responses from DeepSeek R1 and Gemini Flash 2.0 Thinking during this conversation, I thought at this moment it would be nice to insert myself quickly doing the same for OpenAI o1-pro and o3-mini with the same prompt. The prompt being, give one truly novel insight about humans. And I thought I would, in general, give my vibe check and vibe based anecdotal report on my own experiences with the new o3-mini model now that I got a chance to spend many hours with it in different kinds of context and applications.
So, I would probably categorize this question as let’s say open- ended philosophical question. And in particular, the emphasis on novelty I think is a nice way to test one of the capabilities of the model, which is come up with something that makes you pause and almost surprise you with brilliance.
So that said, my general review after running each of the models on this question a bunch of times is that o1-pro consistently gave brilliant answers, ones that gave me pause and made me think, both cutting in its insight and just really nicely phrased with wit, with clarity, with nuance over and over, consistently generating the best answers. After that is R1, which was less consistent, but again, delivered brilliance. Gemini Flash 2.0 Thinking was third and last was o3-mini actually. It often gave quite a generic answer, at least to my particular sensibilities. That said, in a bunch of other applications that I tested for brainstorming purposes, it actually worked extremely well and often outperformed R1. But on this open-ended philosophical question, it did consistently worse.
Now another important element for each of these models is how the reasoning is presented. DeepSeek R1 shows the full chain of thought tokens, which I personally just love. For these open-ended philosophical questions, it’s really, really interesting to see the model think through it, but really also just stepping back, me as a person who appreciates intelligence and reasoning and reflection, reading these kind of chain of thought raw tokens of R1, there’s something genuinely beautiful about observing the path of deliberation in an intelligent system. I think we don’t always have that explicitly laid out for us humans. So, to see it in another intelligence system, the nonlinearity of it akin to the Ulysses, Finnegans Wake by James Joyce. It’s just beautiful to watch.
Anyways, we discussed in the episode DeepSeek R1 talked about humans being able to convert selfish desires into cooperative systems by collectively pretending abstract rules like money laws and rights are real. And these shared hallucinations act as games where competition is secretly redirected to benefit the group turning conflict into society’s fuel. Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking said, “Humans are not just social animals but self-domesticated apes. And this self domestication is the key to understanding our unique cognitive and social abilities.”
Now, it’s important to say that the chain of thought there was really interesting. It was looking through the entire evolution of life on earth considering apex predators and considering how from that, we ended up to where we are. I think that domestication by choice is a really interesting angle. Again, it’s one of those things when somebody presents a different angle on a seemingly obvious thing, it just makes me smile. And the same with DeepSeek R1, that these hallucinations of money laws and rights and us collectively pretending like it’s real and we play games with them that look like competition when secretly we’re just cooperating with each other and that is the fuel of progress. Beautifully put.
Now, OpenAI o1-pro consistently, over and over delivered bangers. I can go through many of them, but the first one was, “Humans are the only species that turns raw materials into symbolic resources. Then uses those symbols to reorganize the very materials that came from creating a closed feedback loop between meaning and matter.” Here, I just ran it again. Banger after banger, I’m telling you. “Humans are unique among known species in that they simultaneously rewrite two layers of reality; the external world and their own private mental landscapes. And then merge these two rewritten layers into a continuous personal narrative that feels objectively true.” Feels true. This is poetry.
Okay. And then o3-mini high, for me, was smart, fast actually, and kind of generic. Never quite got there for me. So here’s the first one I got from o3-mini, “Humans are not fixed beings, but rather ongoing narratives, dynamic stories that we continuously write, edit, and reinterpret. This narrative plasticity is more than just memory or self-reflection. It’s an intrinsic cognitive process that acts like an internal error correction system. It allows us to adapt our identities and values over time in response to new experiences, challenges, and social contexts.” Now, it almost sneaks up to something approximating cutting insight with narrative plasticity in quotes. But then it goes back to the generic. I don’t know.
All of these models are incredible for different reasons. There’s a lot of concerns as we discussed in this episode, but there’s a lot of reasons to be excited as well. And I’ve probably spoken for too long. I am severely sleep-deprived, borderline delirious. So hopefully some of this made sense. And now, dear friends, back to the episode.
Everything is going to take this cost curve down and down and down and down. And then can I just spawn a thousand different LLMs to create a task and then pick from one of them? Or whatever search technique, I want, a Tree, Monte Carlo Tree Search, maybe it gets that complicated, maybe it doesn’t because it’s too complicated to actually scale. Who knows? Better lesson, right?
The question is, I think, when not if, because the rate of progress is so fast. Nine months ago, Dario said nine months ago the cost to train an inference was this, and now we’re much better than this and DeepSeek is much better than this. And that cost curve for GPT-4, which was also roughly $60 per million tokens when it launched, has already fallen to $2 or so. And we’re going to get it down to cents probably for GPT-4 quality. And then that’s the base for the reasoning models like o1 that we have today and o1-pro is spawning multiple and o3 and so on and so forth, these search techniques, too expensive today, but they will get cheaper and that’s what’s going to unlock the intelligence.
The actual thing that happened is much more complex where there’s social factors, where there’s the rising in the app store, the social contagion that is happening. And then I think some of it is just like, I don’t trade, I don’t know anything about financial markets, but it builds up over the weekend, the social pressure, where it’s like if it was during the week and there was multiple days of trading when this was really becoming, but it comes on the weekend and then everybody wants to sell, and then that is a social contagion.
So, there’s a bit of misunderstanding of what these numbers are, and then there’s also an element of… NVIDIA has just been a straight line up and there’s been so many different narratives that have been trying to push down NVIDIA. I don’t say push down NVIDIA stock. Everyone is looking for a reason to sell or to be worried. It was Blackwell delays, right? Their GPU, every two weeks there’s a new report about their GPUs being delayed. There’s the whole thing about scaling laws ending, right? It’s so ironic-
And a big chunk of it was, hey, random company buys 16 servers, ships them to China. There’s actually, I saw a photo from someone in the semiconductor industry who leads a team for networking chips that competes with NVIDIA, and he sent a photo of a guy checking into a first class United flight from San Francisco to Shanghai or Shenzhen with a super micro box that was this big, which can only contain GPUs, right? And he was booking first class because think about it, 3K to 5K for your first class ticket, server costs $240,000 in the US, $250,000, you sell it for $300,000 in China. Wait, you just got a free first class ticket and a lot more money. So it’s like… And that’s small scale smuggling. Most of the large scale smuggling is companies in Singapore and Malaysia routing them around or renting GPUs, completely legally-
And then the third source, which is just now banned, which wasn’t considered smuggling, but is China is renting, I believe from our research, Oracle’s biggest GPU customer is ByteDance. And for Google, I think it’s their second-biggest customer. And you go down the list of clouds and especially these smaller cloud companies that aren’t the “hyperscalers,” think beyond CoreWeave and Lambda even, there’s 60 different new cloud companies serving NVIDIA GPUs. I think ByteDance is renting a lot of these, all over it, right?
And so these companies are renting GPUs to Chinese companies, and that was completely legal up until the diffusion rules, which happened just a few weeks ago. And even now, you can rent GPU clusters that are less than 2,000 GPUs, or you can buy GPUs and ship them wherever you want if there are less than 1,500 GPUs. There are still some ways to smuggle, but yeah, as the numbers grow a hundred something billion dollars of revenue for NVIDIA last year, 200 something billion this year, and if next year, it could nearly double again or more than double based on what we see with data center footprints being built out all across the US and the rest of the world, it’s going to be really hard for China to keep up with these rules.
Yes, there will always be smuggling and DeepSeek level models, GPT-4 level models, o1 level models capable to train on what China can get, even the next tier above that. But if we speed run a couple more jumps to billion dollar models, $10 billion models, then it becomes, “Hey, there is a compute disadvantage for China for training models and serving them.” And the serving part is really critical, right? DeepSeek cannot serve their model today. It’s completely out of inventory. It’s already started falling in the app store actually, downloads, because you download it, you try and sign up, they say, “We’re not taking registrations,” because they have no capacity. You open it up, you get less than five tokens per second, if you even get your request approved, right? Because there’s just no capacity because they just don’t have enough GPUs to serve the model, even though it’s incredibly efficient.
So, it’s much easier to get off the ground using this than to set up human pipelines and build a strong model. So there’s long history here, and a lot of the communications are seem like narrative [inaudible 03:31:00].
So, we’ve seen a sort of roundabout. Is it bad? Is it illegal? Maybe it’s illegal, whatever. I don’t know about that, but-
This is difficult, but I think you should be allowed to train on the internet. I know a lot of authors and creators are very sensitive about it. That’s a difficult question. But the moment you’re not allowed to train on the internet-
We have a market here to make. We build massive data centers, we rent them to the labs, and then we train models in a legally permissible way, and there’s no ifs, ands, or buts. And now, the models have no potential copyright lawsuit from New York Times or anything like that. No, it’s just completely legal.
It’s going to be a rough journey, but there will be some solutions like that that makes sense. But there’s a long tail where it’s just on the internet.
Code and stuff between, I say companies, not nation states, is probably very difficult. But ideas are discussed a lot, whether it be a house party in San Francisco or a company changing employees or always the mythical honeypot that always gets talked about. Someone gets honeypotted because everyone working on AI is a single dude who’s in their 20s and 30s. Not everyone, but insane amount of… Insane percentages. So, there’s always all these… And obviously-
Now, by the end of this decade, it’s… Even under… When I say 10%, a lot of people that are traditionally by 2028 to 2030, people traditionally non-traditional data center people, that’s nuts. But then, people who are in AI who have really looked at this like the Anthropics and OpenAI’s, are like, “That’s not enough.”
And I’m like, “Okay.” But this is both through globally distributed or distributed throughout the US as well as centralized clusters. The distributed throughout the US is exciting and it’s the bulk of it. Like, hey, OpenAI or, say, Meta’s adding a gigawatt, but most of it is distributed through the US for inference and all these other things.
It’s now, a inference. An inference is dramatically different from traditional distributed systems, but it looks a lot more simple, similar. And then, there’s training. The inference side is still like, “Hey, I’m going to put thousands of GPUs in blocks all around these data centers.” I’m going to run models on them. User submits a request, it gets kicked off. Or hey, my service. They submit a request to my service. They’re on Word and they’re like, “Oh yeah, help me, Copilot,” and it kicks it off. Or I’m on my windows, Copilot, whatever, Apple intelligence. Whatever it is, it gets kicked off to a data center. That data center does some work and sends it back. That’s inference. That is going to be the bulk of compute, but then…
And that’s like, there’s thousands of data centers that we’re tracking with satellites and all these other things, and those are the bulk of what’s being built. But the scale of… And so, that’s what’s really reshaping and that’s what’s getting millions of GPUs. But the scale of the largest cluster is also really important. When we look back at history or through the age of AI, it was a really big deal when they did AlexNet on, I think, 2 GPUs or 4 GPUs. I don’t remember. It’s a really big deal.
Sorry for skipping past that. And then the data center itself is complicated, but these are still standard sized data centers for GPT-4 scale. Now, we step forward to what is the scale of clusters that people built last year, and it ranges widely. It ranges from like, “Hey, these are standard data centers. And we’re just using multiple of them and connecting them together really with a ton of fiber between them, a lot of networking, etc.” That’s what OpenAI and Microsoft did in Arizona. They have 100,000 GPUs.
Meta, similar thing. They took their standard existing data center design and it looks like an H, and they connected multiple of them together. They first did 24,000 GPUs total, only 16,000 of them were running on the training run because GPUs are very unreliable so they need to have spares to swap in and out. All the way to now, 100,000 GPUs that they’re training on Llama 4 on currently. Like, 128,000 or so.
Think about 100,000 GPUs with roughly 1,400 watts apiece. That’s 140 megawatts, 150 megawatts for 128. So, you’re talking about you’ve jumped from 15 to 20 megawatts to almost 10x that number, 9x that number, to 150 megawatts in two years from 2022 to 2024. And some people like Elon, that he admittedly… He says himself he got into the game a little bit late for pre-training large language models. xAI was started later, right? But then, he bent heaven and hell to get his data center up and get the largest cluster in the world, which is 200,000 GPUs. And he did that. He bought a factory in Memphis. He’s upgrading the substation, with the same time, he’s got a bunch of mobile power generation, a bunch of single cycle combine. He tapped the natural gas line that’s right next to the factory, and he’s just pulling a ton of gas, burning gas.
He’s generating all this power. He’s in an old appliance factory that’s shut down and moved to China long ago, and he’s got 200,000 GPUs in it. And now, what’s the next scale? All the hyperscalers have done this. Now, the next scale is something that’s even bigger. And so Elon, just to stick on the topic, he’s building his own natural gas plant, like a proper one right next door. He’s deploying tons of Tesla Megapack batteries to make the power more smooth and all sorts of other things. He’s got industrial chillers to cool the water down because he’s water-cooling the chips. So, all these crazy things to get the clusters bigger and bigger.
But when you look at, say, what OpenAI did with Stargate in Arizona, in Abilene Texas, right? What they’ve announced, at least. It’s not built. Elon says they don’t have the money. There’s some debates about this. But at full scale, at least the first section is definitely money’s accounted for, but there’s multiple sections. But full scale, that data center is going to be 2.2 gigawatts, 2,200 megawatts of power in. And roughly, 1.8 gigawatts or 1,800 megawatts of power delivered to chips.
Now, this is an absurd scale. 2.2 gigawatts is more than most cities, to be clear. Delivered to a single cluster that’s connected to do training. To train these models, to do both the pre-training, the post-training, all of this stuff.
As you throw more compute, you get more performance. This shirt is about scaling laws. To some extent, it is diminishing returns. You 10x the compute, you don’t get 10x better model. You get a diminishing returns. But also, you get efficiency improvements, so you bend the curve. And these scale of data centers are just reeking a lot of havoc on the network. Nathan was mentioning Amazon has tried to buy this nuclear power plant Talen. And if you look at Talen’s stock, it’s just skyrocketing. They’re building a massive multi-gigawatt data center there.
You just go down the list, there’s so many ramifications. Interesting thing is certain regions of the US transmitting power cost more than actually generating it because the grid is so slow to build. And the demand for power, and the ability to build power, and re-ramping on a natural gas plant or even a coal plant is easy enough to do, but transmitting the power’s really hard. So in some parts of the US like in Virginia, it costs more to transmit power than it costs to generate it, which is there’s all sorts of second-order effects that are insane here.
Data center power consumption is flat, right? I mean, [inaudible 03:46:53].
You can’t do solar or anything in the short term like that.
One is… And Elon, what he’s doing in Memphis is to the extreme. They’re not just using dual combine cycle gas which is super efficient, he’s also just using single cycle and mobile generators and stuff which is less efficient. But there’s also the flip side, which is solar power generation is like this, and wind is another like this. Different correlate different. So if you stack both of those, plus you get a big chunk of batteries, plus you have a little bit of gas, it is possible to run it more green. It’s just the time scales for that is slow. So, people are trying. But Meta basically said, “Whatever. I don’t care about my sustainability pledge.” Or they’ll buy a power… It’s called a PPA, Power Purchasing Agreement, where there’ll be a massive wind farm or solar farm wherever. And then, they’ll just pretend like those electrons are being consumed by the data center. But in reality, they’re paying for the power here and selling it to the grid, and they’re buying power here.
And then another thing is Microsoft quit on some of their sustainability pledges. Elon, what he did with Memphis is objectively somewhat dirty, but he is also doing it in an area where there’s a bigger natural gas plant right next door and a sewer next… Or not a sewer, but a wastewater treatment and a garbage dump nearby. And he’s obviously made the world a lot more clean than that one data center is going to do, so I think it’s fine to some extent. And maybe, AGI solves global warming and stuff, whatever it is.
This is the attitude that people at the labs have, which is like, “Yeah, it’s great. We’ll just use gas,” because the race is that important. And if we lose, that’s way worse.
I was sitting in on all of these meetings where they’re brainstorming. It’s insane. It’s exciting because they’re trying to figure out what the bottlenecks are, how to remove the bottlenecks, how to make sure that… There’s just so many really cool things about putting together a data center because everything has to work. The people that do the sys admin, the machine learning and all of that is the exciting thing, so on. But really, the people that run everything are the folks that know the low-level software and hardware that runs everything, the networking, all of that. So, you have to make sure you have procedures that test everything. I think they’re using ethernet. I don’t know how they’re doing the networking, but-
But in the simplest terms, you’ll be computing a lot and then you’ll exchange. The interesting thing is GPU power is most of it, networking power is some but it’s a lot less. So while you’re computing, your power for your GPUs is here. But then when you’re exchanging weights, if you’re not able to overlap communications and compute perfectly, there may be a time period where your GPUs are just idle, and you’re exchanging weights and you’re like, “Hey, the model’s updating.” So, you’re exchanging the radiance, you do the model update, and then you start training again. So, the power goes… Right? And it’s super spiky.
And so funnily enough, when you talk about the scale of data center power, you can blow stuff up so easily. And so, Meta actually has accidentally upstreamed something to code in PyTorch where they added an operator. And I kid you not, whoever made this, I want to hug the guy because it says PyTorch… It’s like PyTorch.powerplant no blow up equals 0 or equal 1. And what it does is amazing, right?
But Elon did it on this current generation, and that required a lot of stuff. If you look at some of the satellite photos and stuff of the Memphis facility, there’s all these external water chillers that are sitting. Basically, it looks like a semi truck pod thing. What’s it called? The container? But really, those are water chillers, and he has 90 of those water chillers just sitting outside. Ninety different containers that chill the water, bring it back to the data center, and then you distribute it to all the chips, pull all the heat out and then send it back. And this is both a way to cool the chips, but also, it’s an efficiency thing.
And going back to that three vector thing, there is Memory Bandwidth FLOPS and interconnect. The closer the chips are together, the easier it is to do high-speed interconnects. And this is also a reason why you want to go water cooling is because you can just put the chips right next to each other, and therefore get higher speed connectivity.
And so, Elon today has 200,000 H100s, 100,000 H100s and 100,000 H200s. Meta, OpenAI, and Amazon all have on the scale of a hundred thousand, a little bit less. But next this year, people are building much more. Anthrophic and Amazon are building a cluster of 400,000 trainium 2, which is Amazon-specific chip trying to get away from NVIDIA. Meta and OpenAI have scales for hundreds of thousands. But by next year, you’ll have 500,000 to 700,000 GPU clusters. And note, those GPUs are much higher power consumption than existing ones. Hopper’s 700 watts, Blackwell goes to 1,200 watts.
So, the power per chip is growing and the number of chips is growing.
Now with pre-training, this is the old scale. You can increase parameters, you did increase data, model gets better. That doesn’t apply anymore because there’s not much more data in the pre-training side. Yes, there’s video and audio and image that has not been fully taken advantage of, so there’s a lot more scaling. But a lot of people have transcript, taken transcripts out of YouTube videos, and that gets you a lot of the data. It doesn’t get you all of the learning value out of the video and image data, but…
There’s still scaling to be done on pre-training, but this post-training world is where all the FLOPS are going to be spent. The model’s going to play with itself, it’s going to self-play, it’s going to do verifiable tasks, it’s going to do computer use in sandboxes. It might even do simulated robotics things. All of these things are going to be environments where compute is spent in “post-training.” But I think it’s going to be good. We’re going to drop the post from post-training.
I think FLOPS is the standard for how you measure it. But with RL, and you have to do all of these things where you move your weights around in a different way than at pre-training and just generation, it’s going to be become less efficient and FLOPS is going to be less of a useful term. And then as the infrastructure gets better, it’s probably going to go back to FLOPS.
But the way they do it is very interesting. They have two data center super regions in that the data center isn’t physically… All of the GPUs aren’t physically on one site but they’re like 30 miles from each other. And they’re not GPUs, TPUs. In Iowa and Nebraska, they have four data centers that are just right next to each other.
This is an image of what a standard Google data center looks like. By the way, their data centers look very different than anyone else’s data centers.
So, Google has a very advanced infrastructure that no one else has for the TPU. And what they do is they’ve stamped a bunch of these data centers out in a few regions. So if you go a little bit further down… This is a Microsoft. This is in Arizona. This is where GPT-5 “will be trained.”
And the point here is that Google has a very advanced infrastructure, very tightly connected in a small region. So, Elon will always to have the biggest cluster fully connected because it’s all in one building, and he’s completely right on that. Google has the biggest cluster but you have to spread over three sites, and by a significant margin. We have to go across multiple sites.
One simple one is they’ve open sourced a Gemma model, and they called it Gemma-7B. But then, it’s actually 8 billion parameters because the vocabulary is so large. And the reason they made the vocabulary so large is because TPUs matrix multiply unit is massive because that’s what they’ve optimized for. And so they decided, “Oh, well, I’ll just make the vocabulary large, too.” Even though it makes no sense to do so in such a small model, because that fits on their hardware. Gemma doesn’t run it as efficiently on a GPU as a Llama does. But vice versa, Llama doesn’t run as efficiently on a TPU as a Gemma does.
There’s certain aspects of hardware, software co-design. All their search models are there, ranking and recommendation models, all these different models that are AI but not like gen AI have been hyper optimized with TPUs forever. The software stack is super optimized. But all of this software stack has not been released publicly at all. Very small portions of it. JAX and XLA have been. But the experience when you’re inside of Google and you’re training on TPUs as a researcher, you don’t need to know anything about the hardware in many cases, right? It’s pretty beautiful.
I think in 2023, they bought a couple of billion. And now, they’re buying like 10 billion to $15 billion worth. But how do you convince them that they should just buy twice as many and figure out how to sell them, and make $30 billion? Who cares about making $30 billion?
Also, a lot of the silicon they’ve engineered makes them have a lower cost structure in traditional cloud, storage, CPU networking, that kind of stuff than in databases. I think four of Amazon’s top five revenue products, margin products like gross profit products are all database-related products like Redshift and all these things. So Amazon has a very good silicon to user experience like entire pipeline with AWS. I think Google, their silicon teams, they have awesome silicon internally, TPU, the YouTube chip, some of these other chips that they’ve made. And the problem is they’re not serving external customers, they’re serving internal customers, right?
And in servers, hyperscalers are all making their own ARM-based server chips and Intel has no AI silicon like wins. They have very small wins and they never got into mobile because they said no to the iPhone and all these things have compounded and they’ve lost their process technology leadership. They were ahead for 20 years and now they’re behind by at least a couple years and they’re trying to catch back up and we’ll see if their 18A, 14A strategy works out where they try and leapfrog TSMC like and Intel is just losing tons of money anyways, and they just fired their CEO, even though the CEO was the only person who understood the company well, right? We’ll see. He was not the best, but he was pretty good relatively technical guy.
You don’t know if all of a sudden OpenAI goes kapoof and now Microsoft has hundreds of thousands of GPUs they were renting to OpenAI that they paid for themselves with their investment in them that no longer have a customer. This is always a possibility. I don’t believe that. I think OpenAI will keep raising money. I think others will keep raising money because the returns from it are going to be eventually huge once we have AGI.
The question is what ways can we get language models to generalize to new domains and solve their own problems in real time. Maybe some tiny amount of training when they’re doing this with fine-tuning themselves or in context learning, which is the idea of storing information in a prompt. And you can use learning algorithms to update that and whether or not you believe that that is going to actually generalize to things like me saying, “Book my trip to go to Austin in two days. I have XYZ constraints,” and actually trusting it. I think there’s an HCI problem coming back for information.
And then you compound the nines onto each other and it’s like if you multiply by the number of steps that are six sigma, you get to a yield or something. So in semiconductor manufacturing, tens of thousands of steps, 9999999 is not enough. You multiply by that many times you actually end up with 60% yield, right? Really low yield or zero. And this is the same thing with agents, right? Chaining tasks together each time, even the best LLMs in particularly pretty good benchmarks don’t get 100%, right? They get a little bit below that because there is a lot of noise. And so how do you get to enough nines, right? This is the same thing with self-driving. We can’t have self-driving because without it being super geofenced like Google’s and even then they have a bunch of teleoperators to make sure it doesn’t get stuck. But you can’t do that because it doesn’t have enough nines.
You go from sandbox to progress and then you add one more domain at a time and generalize, I think. And the history of NLP and language processing instruction, tuning and tasks per language model used to be like one language model did one task, and then in the instruction tuning literature, there’s this point where you start adding more and more tasks together where it just starts to generalize to every task. And we don’t know where on this curve we are. I think for reasoning with this RL and verifiable domains, we’re early, but we don’t know where the point is where you just start training on enough domains and poof, more domains just start working. And you’ve crossed the generalization barrier.
But the way that people think of it now is it can do code completion. Easy. It can do some function generation. I have to review it. Great. But really the software engineering agents I think can be done faster sooner than any other agent because it is a verifiable domain. You can always unit test or compile, and there’s many different regions of it can inspect the whole code base at once, which no engineer really can. Only the architects can really think about this stuff, the really senior guys, and they can define stuff and then the agent can execute on it. So I think software engineering costs are going to plummet like crazy. And one interesting aspect of that is when software engineering costs are really low, you get very different markets. So in the US, you have all these platform SaaS companies, Salesforce and so on and so forth. In China, no one uses platform SaaS. Everyone just builds their own stack because software engineering is much cheaper in China and partially because people, number of STEM graduates, et cetera. So it’s generally just cheaper to do.
And so at the same time, code LLMs have been adopted much less in China because the cost of an engineer there is much lower. But what happens when every company can just invent their own business logic really cheaply and quickly? You stop using platform SaaS, you start building custom tailored solutions, you change them really quickly. Now all of a sudden your business is a little bit more efficient too, potentially because you’re not dealing with the hell that is. Some random platform SaaS company stuff not working perfectly and having to adjust workflows or random business automation cases that aren’t necessarily AI required.
It’s just logic that needs to be built that no one has built. All of these things can go happen faster. And so I think software and then the other domain is industrial, chemical, mechanical engineers suck at coding just generally. And their tools like semiconductor engineers, their tools are 20 years old. All the tools run on XP including ASML lithography tools run on Windows XP. And a lot of the analysis happens in Excel, right? It’s just like, “Guys, you guys can move 20 years forward with all the data you have and gathered and do a lot better.” You need the engineering skills for software engineering to be delivered to the actual domain expert engineer. So I think that’s the area where I’m super-duper bullish of generally AI creating value.
And we’ve been playing at the frontiers of post-training with open source code. And this first part of this release was in the fall where we’ve built on Llama’s, open models, open weight models, and then we add in our fully open code or fully open data. There’s a popular benchmark that is Chatbot Arena. And that’s generally the metric by which how these chat models are evaluated. And it’s humans compare random models from different organizations. And if you looked at the leaderboard in November or December, among the top 60 models from tens to twenties of organizations, none of them had open code or data for just post-training.
Among that, even fewer or none have pre-training data and code available. Post-training is much more accessible at this time. It’s still pretty cheap, and you can do it. And the thing is, how high can we push this number where people have access to all the code and data? So that’s kind of the motivation of the project. We draw in lessons from Llama. Nvidia had a Nemotron model where the recipe for their post-training was fairly open with some data and a paper, and it’s putting all these together to try to create a recipe that people can fine tune models like GPT-4 to their domain.
And this is something that the DeepSeek paper talked about as well is at this bigger model, it’s easier to elicit powerful capabilities with this RL training. And then they distill it down from that big model to the small model. And this model we released today, we saw the same thing. We’re at AI2, we don’t have a ton of compute. We can’t train 405B models all the time. So we just did a few runs and they tend to work. And it just shows that there’s a lot of room for people to play in these things and that’s –
And this is, it’s like the time of progress and we benefit if we can release a model later, we have more time to learn new techniques like this RL technique, we had started this in the fall, it’s now really popular reasoning models. The next thing to do for open source post-training is to scale up verifiers, to scale up data to replicate some of DeepSeek’s results. And it’s awesome that we have a paper to draw on and it makes it a lot easier. And that’s the type of things that is going on among academic and closed frontier research in AI.
So until there are feedback loops of open source AI, it seems like mostly an ideological mission. People like Mark Zuckerberg, which is like America needs this and I agree with him, but in the time where the motivation ideologically is high, we need to capitalize and build this ecosystem around, what benefits do you get from seeing the language model data? And there’s not a lot about that. We’re going to try to launch a demo soon where you can look at an OMO model and a query and see what pre-training data is similar to it, which is legally risky and complicated, but it’s like what does it mean to see the data that the AI was trained on? It’s hard to parse. It’s terabytes of files. It’s like I don’t know what I’m going to find in there, but that’s what we need to do as an ecosystem if people want open source AI to be financially useful.
They tried to rent it to Elon in fact, but Elon was like, “It’s too slow. I need it faster.” So then he went and did his Memphis thing, and so OpenAI was able to get it with this weird joint venture called Stargate. They initially signed a deal with just Oracle for the first section of this cluster. This first section of this cluster is roughly $5 billion to $6 billion of server spend, and then there’s another billion or so of data center spend. And then likewise, if you fill out that entire 1.8 gigawatts with the next two generations of NVIDIA’s chips, GB 200, GB 300, VR 200, and you fill it out completely, that ends up being roughly $50 billion of server cost. Plus there’s data center costs plus maintenance costs, plus operation costs plus all these things. And that’s where OpenAI gets to their $100 billion announcement that they had. Because they talked about $100 billion dollars is phase one. That’s this Abilene, Texas data center, right? $ 100 billion of “total cost of ownership.” So it’s not CapEx, it’s not investment, it’s a $100 billion of total cost of ownership.
And then there will be future phases. They’re looking at other sites that are even bigger than this 2.2 gigawatts by the way, in Texas and elsewhere. And so they’re not completely ignoring that, but the number of $100 billion that they save for phase one, which I do think will happen. They don’t even have the money for that. Furthermore, it’s not $100 billion dollars, it’s $50 billion of spend and then $50 billion of operational cost power, et cetera, rental pricing, et cetera, because they’re renting it. OpenAI is renting the GPUs from the Stargate joint venture. What money do they actually have, right? SoftBank is going to invest, Oracle is going to invest. OpenAI is going to invest. OpenAI is on the line for $19 billion. Everyone knows that they’ve only got 46 billion in their last round and $4 billion of debt. But there, there’s news of Softbank maybe investing $25 billion into OpenAI. So that’s part of it. So $19 billion can come from there.
So OpenAI does not have the money at all to be clear. Ink is not dried on anything. OpenAI has $0 for this, 50 billion in which they’re legally obligated to put 19 billion of CapEx into the joint venture, and then the rest they’re going to pay via renting the GPUs from the joint venture. And then there’s Oracle. Oracle has a lot of money. They’re building the first section completely. They were spending for it themselves, this $6 billion of CapEx, $10 billion of TCO, and they were going to do that first section. They’re paying for that, right? As far as the rest of the section, I don’t know how much Larry wants to spend. At any point he could pull out. This is again, it is completely voluntary. So at any point, there’s no signed ink on this, but he potentially could contribute tens of billions of dollars to be clear. He’s got the money, Oracle’s got the money.
And then there’s like MGX is the UAE fund, which technically has $1.5 trillion for investing in AI. But again, I don’t know how real that money is and there’s no ink signed for this, SoftBank does not have $25 billion of cash. They have to sell down their stake in arm, which is the leader in CPUs and they IPO’d it. This is obviously what they’ve always wanted to do, they just didn’t know where they’d redeploy the capital. Selling down the stake in ARM makes a ton of sense. So they can sell that down and invest in this if they want to and invest in OpenAI if they want to. As far as money secured, the first 100,000 GB 200 cluster can be funded. Everything else after that-
But the way to think about it is that there is sort of the more elements you add to a task, you don’t get strong scaling. If I double the number of chips, I don’t get two exit performance. This is just a reality of computing because there’s inefficiencies.And there’s a lot of interesting work being done to make it not to make it more linear, whether it’s making the chips more networked together more tightly or cool programming models or cool algorithmic things that you can do on the model side. DeepSeek did some of these really cool innovations because they were limited on interconnect, but they still needed to parallelize. Everyone’s always doing stuff. Google’s got a bunch of work and everyone’s got a bunch of work about this. That stuff is super exciting on the model and workload and innovation side. Hardware, solid-state transformers are interesting. For the power side, all sorts of stuff on batteries and there’s all sorts of stuff on.
I think if you look at every layer of the compute stack, whether it goes from lithography and etch all the way to fabrication, to optics, to networking, to power, to transformers, to cooling, to a networking, and you just go on up and up and up and up the stack, even air conditioners for data centers are innovating. Copper cables are innovating. You wouldn’t think it, but copper cables, there’s some innovations happening there with the density of how you can pack them and it’s like all of these layers of the stack, all the way up to the models, human progress is at a pace that’s never been seen before.
It’s like we’re the ones that it’s like, we’re going to do it and you can trust us and we’re just going to have all the AI, and it’s just like, I would like a future where more people have a say in what AI is and can understand it, and it’s a little bit less fun that it’s not a positive thing of this is just all really fun. Training models is fun and bring people in as fun, but it’s really AI if it is going to be the most powerful technology of my lifetime, it’s like we need to have a lot of people involved in making that and-
And I think that’s the thing that’s probably more worrisome is human-machine amalgamations. This enables an individual human to have more impact on the world and that impact can be both positive and negative. Generally, humans have positive impacts on the world, at least societally, but it’s possible for individual humans to have such negative impacts. And AGI, at least as I think the labs define it, which is not a runaway sentient thing, but rather just something that can do a lot of tasks really efficiently amplifies the capabilities of someone causing extreme damage. But for the most part, I think it’ll be used for profit-seeking motives, which will increase the abundance and supply of things and therefore reduce suffering, right? That’s the goal.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 3:33 – DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
- 25:07 – Low cost of training
- 51:25 – DeepSeek compute cluster
- 58:57 – Export controls on GPUs to China
- 1:09:16 – AGI timeline
- 1:18:41 – China’s manufacturing capacity
- 1:26:36 – Cold war with China
- 1:31:05 – TSMC and Taiwan
- 1:54:44 – Best GPUs for AI
- 2:09:36 – Why DeepSeek is so cheap
- 2:22:55 – Espionage
- 2:31:57 – Censorship
- 2:44:52 – Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
- 2:55:23 – OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
- 3:14:31 – NVIDIA
- 3:18:58 – GPU smuggling
- 3:25:36 – DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
- 3:36:04 – AI megaclusters
- 4:11:26 – Who wins the race to AGI?
- 4:21:39 – AI agents
- 4:30:21 – Programming and AI
- 4:37:49 – Open source
- 4:47:01 – Stargate
- 4:54:30 – Future of AI
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert. Dylan runs SemiAnalysis, a well-respected research and analysis company that specializes in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware in general. Nathan is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI and is the author of the amazing blog on AI called Interconnects. They are both highly respected, read and listened to by the experts, researchers and engineers in the field of AI. And personally, I’m just a fan of the two of them, so I used the DeepSeek moment that shook the AI world a bit as an opportunity to sit down with them and lay it all out from DeepSeek, OpenAI, Google XAI, Meta, Anthropic to NVIDIA and DSMC, and to US-China-Taiwan relations and everything else that is happening at the cutting edge of AI. This conversation is a deep dive into many critical aspects of the AI industry.
The following is a conversation with Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert. Dylan runs SemiAnalysis, a well-respected research and analysis company that specializes in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware in general. Nathan is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI and is the author of the amazing blog on AI called Interconnects. They are both highly respected, read and listened to by the experts, researchers and engineers in the field of AI. And personally, I’m just a fan of the two of them, so I used the DeepSeek moment that shook the AI world a bit as an opportunity to sit down with them and lay it all out from DeepSeek, OpenAI, Google XAI, Meta, Anthropic to NVIDIA and DSMC, and to US-China-Taiwan relations and everything else that is happening at the cutting edge of AI. This conversation is a deep dive into many critical aspects of the AI industry.
While it does get super technical, we try to make sure that it’s still accessible to folks outside of the AI field by defining terms, stating important concepts explicitly, spelling out acronyms, and in general, always moving across the several layers of abstraction and levels of detail. There is a lot of hype in the media about what AI is and isn’t. The purpose of this podcast in part is to cut through the hype, through the bullshit and the low resolution analysis and to discuss in detail how stuff works and what the implications are. Let me also, if I may comment on the new OpenAI o3-mini reasoning model, the release of which we were anticipating during the conversation and it did indeed come out right after. Its capabilities and costs are on par with our expectations as we stated. OpenAI o3-mini is indeed a great model, but it should be stated that DeepSeek-R1 has similar performance on benchmarks, is still cheaper and it reveals its chain of thought reasoning, which o3-mini does not. It only shows a summary of the reasoning, plus R1 is open weight and o3-mini is not.
By the way, I got a chance to play with o3-mini and anecdotal vibe check wise, I felt that o3-mini, specifically o3-mini high is better than R1. Still for me personally, I find that Claude Sonnet 3.5 is the best model for programming except for tricky cases where I will use o1 Pro to brainstorm. Either way, many more better AI models will come including reasoning models both from American and Chinese companies. They’ll continue to shift the cost curve, but the quote “DeepSeek moment” is indeed real. I think it will still be remembered five years from now as a pivotal event in tech history due in part to the geopolitical implications, but for other reasons to, as we discuss in detail from many perspectives in this conversation. This is the Lex Fridman podcast, to support it please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert.
DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
Lex Fridman
A lot of people are curious to understand China’s DeepSeek AI models, so let’s lay it out. Nathan, can you describe what DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 are, how they work, how they’re trained? Let’s look at the big picture and then we’ll zoom in on the details.
A lot of people are curious to understand China’s DeepSeek AI models, so let’s lay it out. Nathan, can you describe what DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 are, how they work, how they’re trained? Let’s look at the big picture and then we’ll zoom in on the details.
Nathan Lambert
DeepSeek-V3 is a new mixture of experts, transformer language model from DeepSeek who is based in China. They have some new specifics in the model that we’ll get into. Largely this is a open weight model and it’s a instruction model like what you would use in ChatGPT. They also released what is called the base model, which is before these techniques of post-training. Most people use instruction models today, and those are what’s served in all sorts of applications. This was released on, I believe, December 26th or that week. And then weeks later on January 20th, DeepSeek released DeepSeek-R1, which is a reasoning model, which really accelerated a lot of this discussion.
DeepSeek-V3 is a new mixture of experts, transformer language model from DeepSeek who is based in China. They have some new specifics in the model that we’ll get into. Largely this is a open weight model and it’s a instruction model like what you would use in ChatGPT. They also released what is called the base model, which is before these techniques of post-training. Most people use instruction models today, and those are what’s served in all sorts of applications. This was released on, I believe, December 26th or that week. And then weeks later on January 20th, DeepSeek released DeepSeek-R1, which is a reasoning model, which really accelerated a lot of this discussion.
This reasoning model has a lot of overlapping training steps to DeepSeek-V3, and it’s confusing that you have a base model called V3 that you do something to to get a chat model and then you do some different things to get a reasoning model. I think a lot of the AI industry is going through this challenge of communications right now where OpenAI makes fun of their own naming schemes. They have GPT-4o, they have OpenIA o1, and there’s a lot of types of models, so we’re going to break down what each of them are. There’s a lot of technical specifics on training and go through them high level to specific and go through each of them.
Lex Fridman
There’s so many places we can go here, but maybe let’s go to open weights first. What does it mean for a model to be open weights and what are the different flavors of open source in general?
There’s so many places we can go here, but maybe let’s go to open weights first. What does it mean for a model to be open weights and what are the different flavors of open source in general?
Nathan Lambert
This discussion has been going on for a long time in AI. It became more important since ChatGPT or more focal since ChatGPT at the end of 2022. Open weights is the accepted term for when model weights of a language model are available on the internet for people to download. Those weights can have different licenses, which is effectively the terms by which you can use the model. There are licenses that come from history and open source software. There are licenses that are designed by companies specifically all of Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, these popular names in open weight models have some of their own licenses. It’s complicated because not all the same models have the same terms. The big debate is on what makes a model open weight. It’s like, why are we saying this term? It’s a mouthful. It sounds close to open source, but it’s not the same.
This discussion has been going on for a long time in AI. It became more important since ChatGPT or more focal since ChatGPT at the end of 2022. Open weights is the accepted term for when model weights of a language model are available on the internet for people to download. Those weights can have different licenses, which is effectively the terms by which you can use the model. There are licenses that come from history and open source software. There are licenses that are designed by companies specifically all of Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, these popular names in open weight models have some of their own licenses. It’s complicated because not all the same models have the same terms. The big debate is on what makes a model open weight. It’s like, why are we saying this term? It’s a mouthful. It sounds close to open source, but it’s not the same.
There’s still a lot of debate on the definition and soul of open source AI. Open source software has a rich history on freedom to modify, freedom to take on your own, freedom for many restrictions on how you would use the software and what that means for AI is still being defined. For what I do, I work at the Allen Institute for AI, we’re a nonprofit, we want to make AI open for everybody and we try to lead on what we think is truly open source. There’s not full agreement in the community, but for us that means releasing the training data, releasing the training code, and then also having open weights like this. And we’ll get into the details of the models and again and again as we try to get deeper into how the models were trained, we will say things like the data processing, data filtering data quality is the number one determinant of the model quality.
And then a lot of the training code is the determinant on how long it takes to train and how fast your experimentation is. Without fully open source models where you have access to this data, it is hard to know… Or it’s harder to replicate. We’ll get into cost numbers for DeepSeek-V3 on mostly GPU hours and how much you could pay to rent those yourselves. But without the data, the replication cost is going to be far, far higher. And same goes for the code.
Lex Fridman
We should also say that this is probably one of the more open models out of the frontier models.
We should also say that this is probably one of the more open models out of the frontier models.
Nathan Lambert
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
In this full spectrum where probably the fullest open source, like you said, open code, open data, open weights, this is not open code, this is probably not open data and this is open weights and the licensing is MIT license or it’s… There’s some nuance in the different models, but it’s towards the free… In terms of the open source movement, these are the good guys.
In this full spectrum where probably the fullest open source, like you said, open code, open data, open weights, this is not open code, this is probably not open data and this is open weights and the licensing is MIT license or it’s… There’s some nuance in the different models, but it’s towards the free… In terms of the open source movement, these are the good guys.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. DeepSeek is doing fantastic work for disseminating understanding of AI. Their papers are extremely detailed in what they do and for other teams around the world, they’re very actionable in terms of improving your own training techniques. And we’ll talk about licenses more, the DeepSeek-R1 model has a very permissive license. It’s called the MIT license. That effectively means there’s no downstream restrictions on commercial use, there’s no use case restrictions. You can use the outputs from the models to create synthetic data.
Yeah. DeepSeek is doing fantastic work for disseminating understanding of AI. Their papers are extremely detailed in what they do and for other teams around the world, they’re very actionable in terms of improving your own training techniques. And we’ll talk about licenses more, the DeepSeek-R1 model has a very permissive license. It’s called the MIT license. That effectively means there’s no downstream restrictions on commercial use, there’s no use case restrictions. You can use the outputs from the models to create synthetic data.
And this is all fantastic. I think the closest peer is something like Llama where you have the weights and you have a technical report. And the technical report is very good for Llama. One of the most read PDFs of the year last year is the Llama 3 paper, but in some ways it’s slightly less actionable. It has less details on the training specifics. I think less plots and so on. And the Llama 3 license is more restrictive than MIT. And then between the DeepSeek custom license and the Llama license, we could get into this whole rabbit hole, I think. We’ll make sure we want to go down the license rabbit hole before we do specifics.
Lex Fridman
It should be stated that one of the implications that DeepSeek, it puts pressure on Llama and everybody else on OpenAI to push towards open source. And that’s the other side of open source is that you mentioned is how much is published in detail about it, so how open are you with the insights behind the code? How good is the technical reports? Are there hand wavy or is there actual details in there? And that’s one of the things that DeepSeek did well is they published a lot of the details.
It should be stated that one of the implications that DeepSeek, it puts pressure on Llama and everybody else on OpenAI to push towards open source. And that’s the other side of open source is that you mentioned is how much is published in detail about it, so how open are you with the insights behind the code? How good is the technical reports? Are there hand wavy or is there actual details in there? And that’s one of the things that DeepSeek did well is they published a lot of the details.
Nathan Lambert
Especially in the DeepSeek-V3, which is their pre-training paper. They were very clear that they are doing interventions on the technical stack that go at many different levels. For example, on their to get highly efficient training, they’re making modifications at or below the CUDA layer for NVIDIA chips. I have never worked there myself and there are a few people in the world that do that very well, and some of them are at DeepSeek. These types of people are at DeepSeek and leading American frontier labs, but there are not many places.
Especially in the DeepSeek-V3, which is their pre-training paper. They were very clear that they are doing interventions on the technical stack that go at many different levels. For example, on their to get highly efficient training, they’re making modifications at or below the CUDA layer for NVIDIA chips. I have never worked there myself and there are a few people in the world that do that very well, and some of them are at DeepSeek. These types of people are at DeepSeek and leading American frontier labs, but there are not many places.
Lex Fridman
To help people understand the other implication of open weights, just there’s a topic we’ll return to often here. There’s a fear that China, the nation might have interest in stealing American data, violating privacy of American citizens. What can we say about open weights to help us understand what the weights are able to do in terms of stealing people’s data?
To help people understand the other implication of open weights, just there’s a topic we’ll return to often here. There’s a fear that China, the nation might have interest in stealing American data, violating privacy of American citizens. What can we say about open weights to help us understand what the weights are able to do in terms of stealing people’s data?
Nathan Lambert
These weights that you can download from Hugging Face or other platforms are very big matrices of numbers. You can download them to a computer in your own house that has no internet and you can run this model and you’re totally in control of your data. That is something that is different than how a lot of language model usage is actually done today, which is mostly through APIs where you send your prompt to GPUs run by certain companies. And these companies will have different distributions and policies on how your data is stored, if it is used to train future models, where it is stored, if it is encrypted, and so on. The open weights are you have your fate of data in your own hands, and that is something that is deeply connected to the soul of open source.
These weights that you can download from Hugging Face or other platforms are very big matrices of numbers. You can download them to a computer in your own house that has no internet and you can run this model and you’re totally in control of your data. That is something that is different than how a lot of language model usage is actually done today, which is mostly through APIs where you send your prompt to GPUs run by certain companies. And these companies will have different distributions and policies on how your data is stored, if it is used to train future models, where it is stored, if it is encrypted, and so on. The open weights are you have your fate of data in your own hands, and that is something that is deeply connected to the soul of open source.
Lex Fridman
It’s not the model that steals your data, it’s whoever is hosting the model, which could be China if you’re using the DeepSeek app or it could be Perplexity. You’re trusting them with your data or OpenAI, you’re trusting them with your data. And some of these are American companies, some these are Chinese companies, but the model itself is not doing the stealing, it’s the host. All right, so back to the basics. What’s the difference between DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1? Can we try to lay out the confusion potential?
It’s not the model that steals your data, it’s whoever is hosting the model, which could be China if you’re using the DeepSeek app or it could be Perplexity. You’re trusting them with your data or OpenAI, you’re trusting them with your data. And some of these are American companies, some these are Chinese companies, but the model itself is not doing the stealing, it’s the host. All right, so back to the basics. What’s the difference between DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1? Can we try to lay out the confusion potential?
Nathan Lambert
Yes. For one, I have very understanding of many people being confused by these two model names, so I would say the best way to think about this is that when training a language model, you have what is called pre-training, which is when you’re predicting the large amounts of mostly internet text you’re trying to predict the next token. And what to know about these new DeepSeek models is that they do this internet large scale pre-training once to get what is called DeepSeek-V3 base. This is a base model, it’s just going to finish your sentences for you. It’s going to be harder to work with than ChatGPT. And then what DeepSeek did is they’ve done two different post-training regimes to make the models have specific desirable behaviors. What is the more normal model in terms of the last few years of AI, an instruct model, a chat model, a quote unquote “aligned model”, a helpful model. There are many ways to describe this is more standard post-training. This is things like instruction tuning, reinforcement learning from human feedback.
Yes. For one, I have very understanding of many people being confused by these two model names, so I would say the best way to think about this is that when training a language model, you have what is called pre-training, which is when you’re predicting the large amounts of mostly internet text you’re trying to predict the next token. And what to know about these new DeepSeek models is that they do this internet large scale pre-training once to get what is called DeepSeek-V3 base. This is a base model, it’s just going to finish your sentences for you. It’s going to be harder to work with than ChatGPT. And then what DeepSeek did is they’ve done two different post-training regimes to make the models have specific desirable behaviors. What is the more normal model in terms of the last few years of AI, an instruct model, a chat model, a quote unquote “aligned model”, a helpful model. There are many ways to describe this is more standard post-training. This is things like instruction tuning, reinforcement learning from human feedback.
We’ll get into some of these words and this is what they did to create the DeepSeek-V3 model. This was the first model to be released and it is very high performant, it’s competitive with GPT-4, Llama 405B and so on. And then when this release was happening, we don’t know their exact timeline or soon after they were finishing the training of a different training process from the same next token prediction based model that I talked about, which is when this new reasoning training that people have heard about comes in in order to create the model that is called DeepSeek-R1. The R through this conversation is good for grounding for reasoning. And the name is also similar to OpenAI’s o1, which is the other reasoning model that people have heard about. And we’ll have to break down the training for R1 in more detail because for one we have a paper detailing it, but also it is a far newer set of techniques for the AI community, so it is a much more rapidly evolving area of research.
Lex Fridman
Maybe we should also say the big two categories of training of pre-training and post-training. These are umbrella terms that people use, so what is pre-training and what is post-training and what are the different flavors of things underneath the post-training umbrella?
Maybe we should also say the big two categories of training of pre-training and post-training. These are umbrella terms that people use, so what is pre-training and what is post-training and what are the different flavors of things underneath the post-training umbrella?
Nathan Lambert
Pre-training, I’m using some of the same words to really get the message across is you’re doing what is called autoregressive prediction to predict the next token in a series of documents. This is done over standard practice is trillions of tokens, so this is a ton of data that is mostly scraped from the web. And some of DeepSeek’s earlier papers, they talk about their training data being distilled for math. I shouldn’t use this word yet, but taken from Common Crawl and that’s a public access that anyone listening to this could go download data from the Common Crawl website. This is a crawler that is maintained publicly. Yes, other tech companies eventually shift to their own crawler and DeepSeek likely has done this as well as most frontier labs do. But this sort of data is something that people can get started with and you’re just predicting text in a series of documents.
Pre-training, I’m using some of the same words to really get the message across is you’re doing what is called autoregressive prediction to predict the next token in a series of documents. This is done over standard practice is trillions of tokens, so this is a ton of data that is mostly scraped from the web. And some of DeepSeek’s earlier papers, they talk about their training data being distilled for math. I shouldn’t use this word yet, but taken from Common Crawl and that’s a public access that anyone listening to this could go download data from the Common Crawl website. This is a crawler that is maintained publicly. Yes, other tech companies eventually shift to their own crawler and DeepSeek likely has done this as well as most frontier labs do. But this sort of data is something that people can get started with and you’re just predicting text in a series of documents.
This can be scaled to be very efficient and there’s a lot of numbers that are thrown around in AI training like how many floating-point operations or flops are used. And then you can also look at how many hours of these GPUs that are used. And it’s largely one loss function taken to a very large amount of compute usage. You set up really efficient systems and then at the end of that you have the base model and pre-training is where there is a lot more of complexity in terms of how the process is emerging or evolving and the different types of training losses that you’ll use. I think this is a lot of techniques grounded in the natural language processing literature. The oldest technique which is still used today is something called instruction tuning or also known as supervised fine-tuning. These acronyms will be IFT or SFT.
People really go back and forth throughout them, and I’ll probably do the same, which is where you add this formatting to the model where it knows to take a question that is, explain the history of the Roman Empire to me or a sort of question you’ll see on Reddit or Stack Overflow. And then the model will respond in a information-dense but presentable manner. The core of that formatting is in this instruction tuning phase. And then there’s two other categories of loss functions that are being used today. One I’ll classify as preference fine-tuning. Preference fine-tuning is a generalized term for what came out of reinforcement learning from human feedback, which is RLHF. This reinforcement learning from human feedback is credited as the technique that helped ChatGPT break through. It is a technique to make the responses that are nicely formatted like these Reddit answers more in tune with what a human would like to read.
This is done by collecting pairwise preferences from actual humans out in the world to start and now AIs are also labeling this data and we’ll get into those trade-offs. And you have this contrastive loss function between a good answer and a bad answer. And the model learns to pick up these trends. There’s different implementation ways. You have things called reward models. You could have direct alignment algorithms. There’s a lot of really specific things you can do, but all of this is about fine-tuning to human preferences. And the final stage is much newer and will link to what is done in R1 and these reasoning models is I think OpenAI’s name for this, they had this new API in the fall, which they called the reinforcement fine-tuning API. This is the idea that you use the techniques of reinforcement learning, which is a whole framework of AI.
There’s a deep literature here to summarize, it’s often known as trial and error learning or the subfield of AI where you’re trying to make sequential decisions in a certain potentially noisy environment. There’s a lot of ways we could go down that, but fine-tuning language models where they can generate an answer and then you check to see if the answer matches the true solution. For math or code you have an exactly correct answer for math, you can have unit tests for code. And what we’re doing is we are checking the language model’s work and we’re giving it multiple opportunities on the same questions to see if it is right. And if you keep doing this, the models can learn to improve in verifiable domains to a great extent. It works really well. It’s a newer technique in the academic literature. It’s been used at frontier labs in the US that don’t share every detail for multiple years. This is the idea of using reinforcement learning with language models and it has been taking off especially in this DeepSeek moment.
Lex Fridman
And we should say that there’s a lot of exciting stuff going on again across the stack, but the post-training probably this year, there’s going to be a lot of interesting developments in the post-training. We’ll talk about it. I almost forgot to talk about the difference between DeepSeek-V3 and R1 on the user experience side. Forget the technical stuff, forget all of that, just people that don’t know anything about AI, they show up. What’s the actual experience, what’s the use case for each one when they actually type and talk to it? What is each good at and that kind of thing?
And we should say that there’s a lot of exciting stuff going on again across the stack, but the post-training probably this year, there’s going to be a lot of interesting developments in the post-training. We’ll talk about it. I almost forgot to talk about the difference between DeepSeek-V3 and R1 on the user experience side. Forget the technical stuff, forget all of that, just people that don’t know anything about AI, they show up. What’s the actual experience, what’s the use case for each one when they actually type and talk to it? What is each good at and that kind of thing?
Nathan Lambert
Let’s start with DeepSeek-V3, again it’s more people would tried something like it. You ask it a question, it’ll start generating tokens very fast and those tokens will look like a very human legible answer. It’ll be some sort of markdown list. It might have formatting to help you draw to the core details in the answer and it’ll generate tens to hundreds of tokens. A token is normally a word for common words or a sub word part in a longer word, and it’ll look like a very high quality Reddit or Stack Overflow answer. These models are really getting good at doing these across a wide variety of domains, I think. Even things that if you’re an expert, things that are close to the fringe of knowledge, they will still be fairly good at, I think.
Let’s start with DeepSeek-V3, again it’s more people would tried something like it. You ask it a question, it’ll start generating tokens very fast and those tokens will look like a very human legible answer. It’ll be some sort of markdown list. It might have formatting to help you draw to the core details in the answer and it’ll generate tens to hundreds of tokens. A token is normally a word for common words or a sub word part in a longer word, and it’ll look like a very high quality Reddit or Stack Overflow answer. These models are really getting good at doing these across a wide variety of domains, I think. Even things that if you’re an expert, things that are close to the fringe of knowledge, they will still be fairly good at, I think.
Cutting edge AI topics that I do research on, these models are capable for study aid and they’re regularly updated. Where this changes is with the DeepSeek- R1, what is called these reasoning models is when you see tokens coming from these models to start, it will be a large chain of thought process. We’ll get back to chain of thought in a second, which looks like a lot of tokens where the model is explaining the problem. The model will often break down the problem and be like, okay, they asked me for this. Let’s break down the problem. I’m going to need to do this. And you’ll see all of this generating from the model. It’ll come very fast in most user experiences. These APIs are very fast, so you’ll see a lot of tokens, a lot of words show up really fast, it’ll keep flowing on the screen and this is all the reasoning process.
And then eventually the model will change its tone in R1 and it’ll write the answer where it summarizes its reasoning process and writes a similar answer to the first types of model. But in DeepSeek’s case, which is part of why this was so popular even outside the AI community, is that you can see how the language model is breaking down problems. And then you get this answer, on a technical side they train the model to do this specifically where they have a section which is reasoning, and then it generates a special token, which is probably hidden from the user most of the time, which says, okay, I’m starting the answer. The model is trained to do this two stage process on its own. If you use a similar model in say, OpenAI, OpenAI’s user interface is trying to summarize this process for you nicely by showing the sections that the model is doing and it’ll click through, it’ll say breaking down the problem, making X calculation, cleaning the result, and then the answer will come for something like OpenAI.
Lex Fridman
Maybe it’s useful here to go through an example of a DeepSeek-R1 reasoning.
Maybe it’s useful here to go through an example of a DeepSeek-R1 reasoning.
Nathan Lambert
If you’re looking at the screen here, what you’ll see is a screenshot of the DeepSeek chat app, and at the top is thought for 157 seconds with the drop-down arrow. Underneath that if we were in an app that we were running, the drop-down arrow would have the reasoning.
If you’re looking at the screen here, what you’ll see is a screenshot of the DeepSeek chat app, and at the top is thought for 157 seconds with the drop-down arrow. Underneath that if we were in an app that we were running, the drop-down arrow would have the reasoning.
Lex Fridman
In this case, the specific question which I’m philosophically/ pothead inclined, so this is asking DeepSeek-R1 for one truly novel insight about humans. And it reveals the reasoning and basically the truly novel aspect is what’s pushing the reasoning to constantly… The model asking itself, is this truly novel? It’s actually challenging itself to be more novel, more counterintuitive, less cringe, I suppose. Some of the reasoning says… This is just snapshots. Alternatively, humans have a unique meta-emotion where they feel emotions about their own emotions e.g. feeling guilty about being angry. This recursive emotional layering creates complex motivational drives that don’t exist in other animals. The insight is that human emotions are nested. It’s reasoning through how humans feel emotions, it’s reasoning about meta emotions.
In this case, the specific question which I’m philosophically/ pothead inclined, so this is asking DeepSeek-R1 for one truly novel insight about humans. And it reveals the reasoning and basically the truly novel aspect is what’s pushing the reasoning to constantly… The model asking itself, is this truly novel? It’s actually challenging itself to be more novel, more counterintuitive, less cringe, I suppose. Some of the reasoning says… This is just snapshots. Alternatively, humans have a unique meta-emotion where they feel emotions about their own emotions e.g. feeling guilty about being angry. This recursive emotional layering creates complex motivational drives that don’t exist in other animals. The insight is that human emotions are nested. It’s reasoning through how humans feel emotions, it’s reasoning about meta emotions.
Nathan Lambert
It’s going to have pages and pages of this. It’s almost too much to actually read, but it’s nice to skim as it’s coming.
It’s going to have pages and pages of this. It’s almost too much to actually read, but it’s nice to skim as it’s coming.
Lex Fridman
It’s a James Joyce like stream of consciousness. And then it goes, wait, the user wants something that’s not seen anywhere else. Let me dig deeper. And consider the human ability to hold contradictory beliefs simultaneously. Cognitive dissonance is known, but perhaps the function is to allow flexible adaptation, so on and so forth. That really captures the public imagination that holy shit, this isn’t intelligence/almost like an inkling of sentience because you’re thinking through, you’re self-reflecting, you’re deliberating. And the final result of that after 157 seconds is, humans instinctively convert selfish desires into cooperative systems by collectively pretending abstract rules, money, laws, rights are real. These shared hallucinations act as quote “games” where competition is secretly redirected to benefit the group, turning conflict into society’s fuel. Pretty profound.
It’s a James Joyce like stream of consciousness. And then it goes, wait, the user wants something that’s not seen anywhere else. Let me dig deeper. And consider the human ability to hold contradictory beliefs simultaneously. Cognitive dissonance is known, but perhaps the function is to allow flexible adaptation, so on and so forth. That really captures the public imagination that holy shit, this isn’t intelligence/almost like an inkling of sentience because you’re thinking through, you’re self-reflecting, you’re deliberating. And the final result of that after 157 seconds is, humans instinctively convert selfish desires into cooperative systems by collectively pretending abstract rules, money, laws, rights are real. These shared hallucinations act as quote “games” where competition is secretly redirected to benefit the group, turning conflict into society’s fuel. Pretty profound.
Nathan Lambert
This is a potential digression, but a lot of people have found that these reasoning models can sometimes produce much more eloquent text. That is a at least interesting example I think depending on how open-minded you are, you find language models interesting or not, and there’s a spectrum there.
This is a potential digression, but a lot of people have found that these reasoning models can sometimes produce much more eloquent text. That is a at least interesting example I think depending on how open-minded you are, you find language models interesting or not, and there’s a spectrum there.
Lex Fridman
We’ll talk about different benchmarks and so on but some has just a vibe. That in itself is a, let’s say quote “fire” tweet. If I’m trying to produce something where people are like, “Oh, shit.” Okay, so that’s a chance probably return to it more. How were they able to achieve such low cost on the training and the inference? Maybe you could talk to the training first.
We’ll talk about different benchmarks and so on but some has just a vibe. That in itself is a, let’s say quote “fire” tweet. If I’m trying to produce something where people are like, “Oh, shit.” Okay, so that’s a chance probably return to it more. How were they able to achieve such low cost on the training and the inference? Maybe you could talk to the training first.
Low cost of training
Dylan Patel
There’s two main techniques that they implemented that are probably the majority of their efficiency, and then there’s a lot of implementation details that maybe we’ll gloss over or get into later that contribute to it. But those two main things are, one is they went to a mixture of experts model, which we’ll define in a second. And then the other thing is that they invented this new technique called MLA, latent attention. Both of these are big deals. Mixture of experts is something that’s been in the literature for a handful of years. And OpenAI with GPT-4 was the first one to productize a mixture of experts model. And what this means is when you look at the common models around that most people have been able to interact with that are open, think Llama. Llama is a dense model i.e. every single parameter or neuron is activated as you’re going through the model for every single token you generate.
There’s two main techniques that they implemented that are probably the majority of their efficiency, and then there’s a lot of implementation details that maybe we’ll gloss over or get into later that contribute to it. But those two main things are, one is they went to a mixture of experts model, which we’ll define in a second. And then the other thing is that they invented this new technique called MLA, latent attention. Both of these are big deals. Mixture of experts is something that’s been in the literature for a handful of years. And OpenAI with GPT-4 was the first one to productize a mixture of experts model. And what this means is when you look at the common models around that most people have been able to interact with that are open, think Llama. Llama is a dense model i.e. every single parameter or neuron is activated as you’re going through the model for every single token you generate.
Now, with a mixture of experts model, you don’t do that. How does the human actually work? Is like, oh, well my visual cortex is active when I’m thinking about vision tasks and other things. My amygdala is when I’m scared. These different aspects of your brain are focused on different things. A mixture of experts, models attempts to approximate this to some extent. It’s nowhere close to what a brain architecture is, but different portions of the model activate. You’ll have a set number of experts in the model and a set number that are activated each time. And this dramatically reduces both your training and inference costs because now if you think about the parameter count as the total embedding space for all of this knowledge that you’re compressing down during training, one, you’re embedding this data in instead of having to activate every single parameter, every single time you’re training or running inference, now you can just activate on a subset and the model will learn which expert to route to for different tasks.
And so this is a humongous innovation in terms of, hey, I can continue to grow the total embedding space of parameters. And so DeepSeek’s model is 600 something billion parameters, relative to Llama 405B, it’s 405 billion parameters, relative to Llama 70B, it’s 70 billion parameters. This model technically has more embedding space for information to compress all of the world’s knowledge that’s on the internet down. But at the same time, it is only activating around 37 billion of the parameters, so only 37 billion of these parameters actually need to be computed every single time you’re training data or inferencing data out of it. Versus again, the Llama model, 70 billion parameters must be activated or 405 billion parameters must be activated, so you’ve dramatically reduced your compute cost when you’re doing training and inference with this mixture of experts architecture.
Nathan Lambert
Should we break down where it actually applies and go into the transformer? Is that useful?
Should we break down where it actually applies and go into the transformer? Is that useful?
Lex Fridman
Let’s go. Let’s go into the transformer.
Let’s go. Let’s go into the transformer.
Nathan Lambert
The transformer is a thing that is talked about a lot, and we will not cover every detail. Essentially the transformer is built on repeated blocks of this attention mechanism and then a traditional dense fully connected multilayer perception, whatever word you want to use for your normal neural network. And you alternate these blocks. There’s other details and where mixture of experts is applied is at this dense model. The dense model holds most of the weights if you count them in a transformer model, so you can get really big gains from those mixture of experts on parameter efficiency at training and inference because you get this efficiency by not activating all of these parameters.
The transformer is a thing that is talked about a lot, and we will not cover every detail. Essentially the transformer is built on repeated blocks of this attention mechanism and then a traditional dense fully connected multilayer perception, whatever word you want to use for your normal neural network. And you alternate these blocks. There’s other details and where mixture of experts is applied is at this dense model. The dense model holds most of the weights if you count them in a transformer model, so you can get really big gains from those mixture of experts on parameter efficiency at training and inference because you get this efficiency by not activating all of these parameters.
Lex Fridman
We should also say that a transformer is a giant neural network.
We should also say that a transformer is a giant neural network.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then there’s, for 15 years now, there’s what’s called the deep learning revolution. Network’s gotten larger and larger. At a certain point, the scaling laws appeared where people realized-
And then there’s, for 15 years now, there’s what’s called the deep learning revolution. Network’s gotten larger and larger. At a certain point, the scaling laws appeared where people realized-
Dylan Patel
This is a scaling law shirt by the way.
This is a scaling law shirt by the way.
Lex Fridman
Representing scaling laws. Where it became more and more formalized that bigger is better across multiple dimensions of what bigger means. But these are all neural networks we’re talking about, and we’re talking about different architectures of how to construct these neural networks such that the training and the inference on them is super efficient.
Representing scaling laws. Where it became more and more formalized that bigger is better across multiple dimensions of what bigger means. But these are all neural networks we’re talking about, and we’re talking about different architectures of how to construct these neural networks such that the training and the inference on them is super efficient.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. Every different type of model has a different scaling law for it, which is effectively for how much compute you put in the architecture will get to different levels of performance at test tasks. And mixture of experts is one of the ones at training time even if you don’t consider the inference benefits, which are also big. At training time, your efficiency with your GPUs is dramatically improved by using this architecture if it is well implemented. You can get effectively the same performance model and evaluation scores with numbers like 30% less compute, I think. There’s going to be a wide variation depending on your implementation details and stuff. But it is just important to realize that this type of technical innovation is something that gives huge gains. And I expect most companies that are serving their models to move to this mixture of experts implementation. Historically, the reason why not everyone might do it is because it’s an implementation complexity, especially when doing these big models.
Yeah. Every different type of model has a different scaling law for it, which is effectively for how much compute you put in the architecture will get to different levels of performance at test tasks. And mixture of experts is one of the ones at training time even if you don’t consider the inference benefits, which are also big. At training time, your efficiency with your GPUs is dramatically improved by using this architecture if it is well implemented. You can get effectively the same performance model and evaluation scores with numbers like 30% less compute, I think. There’s going to be a wide variation depending on your implementation details and stuff. But it is just important to realize that this type of technical innovation is something that gives huge gains. And I expect most companies that are serving their models to move to this mixture of experts implementation. Historically, the reason why not everyone might do it is because it’s an implementation complexity, especially when doing these big models.
This is one of the things that DeepSeek gets credit for is they do this extremely well. They do a mixture of experts extremely well. This architecture for what is called DeepSeek MoE, MoE is the shortened version of mixture of experts, is multiple papers old. This part of their training infrastructure is not new to these models alone. And same goes for what Dylan mentioned with multi-head latent attention. This is all about reducing memory usage during inference and same things during training by using some fancy low rank approximation math. If you get into the details with this latent attention, it’s one of those things I look at and it’s like, okay, they’re doing really complex implementations because there’s other parts of language models such as embeddings that are used to extend the context length, the common one that DeepSeek used is rotary positional embeddings, which is called RoPE.
And if you want to use RoPE with a normal MoE, it’s a sequential thing, you take two of the attention matrices and you rotate them by a complex value rotation, which is a matrix multiplication. With DeepSeek’s MLA, with this new attention architecture, they need to do some clever things because they’re not set up the same and it just makes the implementation complexity much higher. They’re managing all of these things, and these are probably the sort of things that OpenAI these closed labs are doing. We don’t know if they’re doing the exact same techniques, but they actually shared them with the world, which is really nice to be like, this is the cutting edge of efficient language model training.
Lex Fridman
And some of this requires low level engineering, just it is a giant mess in trickery. As I understand they went below CUDA, so they go super low programming of GPUs.
And some of this requires low level engineering, just it is a giant mess in trickery. As I understand they went below CUDA, so they go super low programming of GPUs.
Dylan Patel
Effectively, Nvidia builds this library called NCCL, in which when you’re training a model, you have all these communications between every single layer of the model, and you may have over a hundred layers.
Effectively, Nvidia builds this library called NCCL, in which when you’re training a model, you have all these communications between every single layer of the model, and you may have over a hundred layers.
Nathan Lambert
What does NCCL stand for? It’s NCCL.
What does NCCL stand for? It’s NCCL.
Dylan Patel
Nvidia Communications Collectives Library.
Nvidia Communications Collectives Library.
Lex Fridman
Nice. Damn.
Nice. Damn.
Dylan Patel
And so when you’re training a model, you’re going to have all these allreducers and allgathers, between each layer, between the multilayer perceptron or feed-forward network and the attention mechanism, you’ll have basically the model synchronized. Or you’ll have allreduce and allgather. And this is a communication between all the GPUs in the network, whether it’s in training or inference, so Nvidia has a standard library. This is one of the reasons why it’s really difficult to use anyone else’s hardware for training is because no one’s really built a standard communications library. And Nvidia has done this at a sort of a higher level. DeepSeek because they have certain limitations around the GPUs that they have access to, the interconnects are limited to some extent by the restrictions of the GPUs that were shipped into China legally, not the ones that are smuggled but legally shipped in that they used to train this model, they had to figure out how to get efficiencies. And one of those things is that instead of just calling the NVIDIA library NCCL, they scheduled their own communications, which some of the labs do.
And so when you’re training a model, you’re going to have all these allreducers and allgathers, between each layer, between the multilayer perceptron or feed-forward network and the attention mechanism, you’ll have basically the model synchronized. Or you’ll have allreduce and allgather. And this is a communication between all the GPUs in the network, whether it’s in training or inference, so Nvidia has a standard library. This is one of the reasons why it’s really difficult to use anyone else’s hardware for training is because no one’s really built a standard communications library. And Nvidia has done this at a sort of a higher level. DeepSeek because they have certain limitations around the GPUs that they have access to, the interconnects are limited to some extent by the restrictions of the GPUs that were shipped into China legally, not the ones that are smuggled but legally shipped in that they used to train this model, they had to figure out how to get efficiencies. And one of those things is that instead of just calling the NVIDIA library NCCL, they scheduled their own communications, which some of the labs do.
Meta talked about in Llama 3, how they made their own custom version of NCCL. They didn’t talk about the implementation details. This is some of what they did, probably not as well as… Maybe not as well as DeepSeek because DeepSeek, necessity is the mother of innovation and they had to do this. OpenAI has people that do this sort of stuff, Anthropic, et cetera. But DeepSeek certainly did it publicly and they may have done it even better because they were gimped on a certain aspect of the chips that they have access to. And so they scheduled communications by scheduling specific SMs. SMs you could think of as the core on a GPU. There’s hundreds of cores or there’s a bit over a hundred cores SMs on a GPU. And they were specifically scheduling, hey, which ones are running the model? Which ones are doing allreduce? Which one are doing allgather? And they would flip back and forth between them. And this requires extremely low level programming.
Nathan Lambert
This is what NCCL does automatically or other Nvidia libraries handle this automatically usually.
This is what NCCL does automatically or other Nvidia libraries handle this automatically usually.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, exactly. And so technically they’re using PTX which is, you could think of it as an assembly type language. It’s not exactly that or instruction set, like coding directly to assembly or instruction set. It’s not exactly that, but that’s still part of technically CUDA. But it’s like, do I want to write in Python, PyTorch equivalent and call Nvidia libraries? Do I want to go down to the C level and code even lower level, or do I want to go all the way down to the assembly or ISO level? And there are cases where you go all the way down there at the very big labs, but most companies just do not do that because it’s a waste of time and the efficiency gains you get are not worth it. But-
Yeah, exactly. And so technically they’re using PTX which is, you could think of it as an assembly type language. It’s not exactly that or instruction set, like coding directly to assembly or instruction set. It’s not exactly that, but that’s still part of technically CUDA. But it’s like, do I want to write in Python, PyTorch equivalent and call Nvidia libraries? Do I want to go down to the C level and code even lower level, or do I want to go all the way down to the assembly or ISO level? And there are cases where you go all the way down there at the very big labs, but most companies just do not do that because it’s a waste of time and the efficiency gains you get are not worth it. But-
Dylan Patel
It’s a waste of time and the efficiency gains you get are not worth it. But DeepSeek’s implementation is so complex, especially with their mixture of experts. People have done mixture of experts, but they’re generally eight, 16 experts and they activate two. So, one of the words that we like to use is sparsity factor or usage.
It’s a waste of time and the efficiency gains you get are not worth it. But DeepSeek’s implementation is so complex, especially with their mixture of experts. People have done mixture of experts, but they’re generally eight, 16 experts and they activate two. So, one of the words that we like to use is sparsity factor or usage.
So, you might have 1/4th of your model activate, and that’s what Mistral’s Mixtral model, right? They’re a model that really catapulted them to like, “Oh, my God. They’re really, really good.” OpenAI has also had models that are MoE and so have all the other labs that are major closed. But what DeepSeek did that maybe only the leading labs have only just started recently doing is have such a high sparsity factor, right? It’s not 1/4th of the model, right? Two out of eight experts activating every time you go through the model, it’s eight out of 256.
Nathan Lambert
And there’s different implementations for mixture of experts where you can have some of these experts that are always activated, which this just looks like a small neural network, and then all the tokens go through that and then they also go through some that are selected by this routing mechanism.
And there’s different implementations for mixture of experts where you can have some of these experts that are always activated, which this just looks like a small neural network, and then all the tokens go through that and then they also go through some that are selected by this routing mechanism.
And one of the innovations in DeepSeek’s architecture is that they change the routing mechanism and mixture of expert models. There’s something called an auxiliary loss, which effectively means during training, you want to make sure that all of these experts are used across the tasks that the model sees.
Why there can be failures in mixture of experts is that when you’re doing this training, one objective is token prediction accuracy. And if you just let turning go with a mixture of expert model on your own, it can be that the model learns to only use a subset of the experts. And in the MoE literature, there’s something called the auxiliary loss which helps balance them.
But if you think about the loss functions of deep learning, this even connects to The Bitter Lesson, is that you want to have the minimum inductive bias in your model to let the model learn maximally. And this auxiliary loss, this balancing across experts could be seen as intention with the prediction accuracy of the tokens.
So we don’t know the exact extent that the DeepSeek MoE change, which is instead of doing an auxiliary loss, they have an extra parameter in their routing, which after the batches, they update this parameter to make sure that the next batches all have a similar use of experts. And this type of change can be big, it can be small, but they add up over time. And this is the sort of thing that just points to them innovating.
And I’m sure all the labs that are training big MoEs are looking at this sort of things, which is getting away from the auxiliary loss. Some of them might already use it, but you keep accumulating gains. And we’ll talk about the philosophy of training and how you organize these organizations. And a lot of it is just compounding small improvements over time in your data, in your architecture, in your post-training and how they integrate with each other.
DeepSeek does the same thing and some of them are shared, or a lot. We have to take them on face value that they share their most important details. I mean, the architecture and the weights are out there, so we’re seeing what they’re doing and it adds up.
Dylan Patel
Going back to the efficiency and complexity point, right? It’s 32 versus a four, right, for Mixtral and other MoE models that have been publicly released? So this ratio is extremely high. And what Nathan was getting at there was when you have such a different level of sparsity, you can’t just have every GPU have the entire model, right? The model’s too big, there’s too much complexity there. So you have to split up the model with different types of parallelism, right?
Going back to the efficiency and complexity point, right? It’s 32 versus a four, right, for Mixtral and other MoE models that have been publicly released? So this ratio is extremely high. And what Nathan was getting at there was when you have such a different level of sparsity, you can’t just have every GPU have the entire model, right? The model’s too big, there’s too much complexity there. So you have to split up the model with different types of parallelism, right?
And so you might have different experts on different GPU nodes, but now what happens when this set of data that you get, “Hey, all of it looks like this one way and all of it should route to one part of my model.” So when all of it routes to one part of the model, then you can have this overloading of a certain set of the GPU resources or a certain set of the GPUs and then the rest of the training network sits idle because all of the tokens are just routing to that.
So this is the biggest complexity, one of the big complexities with running a very sparse mixture of experts model i.e., this 32 ratio versus this four ratio, is that you end up with so many of the experts just sitting there idle. So how do I load balance between them? How do I schedule the communications between them? This is a lot of the extremely low-level, detailed work that they figured out in the public first, and potentially second or third in the world and maybe even first in some cases.
Lex Fridman
What lesson do you, in the direction of The Bitter Lesson do you take from all of this? Is this going to be the direction where a lot of the gain is going to be, which is this kind of low-level optimization or is this a short-term thing where the biggest gains will be more on the algorithmic high-level side of post-training?
What lesson do you, in the direction of The Bitter Lesson do you take from all of this? Is this going to be the direction where a lot of the gain is going to be, which is this kind of low-level optimization or is this a short-term thing where the biggest gains will be more on the algorithmic high-level side of post-training?
Is this a short-term leap because they’ve figured out a hack because constraints necessitate the mother of invention or is there still a lot of gains?
Nathan Lambert
I think we should summarize what The Bitter Lesson actually is about, is that The Bitter Lesson essentially, if you paraphrase it, is that the types of training that will win out in deep learning as we go are those methods that which are scalable in learning and search, is what it calls out.
I think we should summarize what The Bitter Lesson actually is about, is that The Bitter Lesson essentially, if you paraphrase it, is that the types of training that will win out in deep learning as we go are those methods that which are scalable in learning and search, is what it calls out.
The scale word gets a lot of attention in this. The interpretation that I use is effectively to avoid adding the human priors to your learning process. And if you read the original essay, this is what it talks about is how researchers will try to come up with clever solutions to their specific problem that might get them small gains in the short term while simply enabling these deep learning systems to work efficiently, and for these bigger problems in the long term might be more likely to scale and continue to drive success.
And therefore, we were talking about relatively small implementation changes to the mixture of experts model. And therefore it’s like, “Okay, we will need a few more years to know if one of these were actually really crucial to The Bitter Lesson,” but The Bitter Lesson is really this long-term arc of how simplicity can often win.
And there’s a lot of sayings in the industry, “The models just want to learn. You have to give them the simple loss landscape where you put compute through the model and they will learn, and getting barriers out of the way.”
Lex Fridman
That’s where the power of something like nickel comes in, where standardized code that could be used by a lot of people to create simple innovations that can scale, which is why the hacks, I imagine, the code base for DeepSeek is probably a giant mess.
That’s where the power of something like nickel comes in, where standardized code that could be used by a lot of people to create simple innovations that can scale, which is why the hacks, I imagine, the code base for DeepSeek is probably a giant mess.
Nathan Lambert
I’m sure DeepSeek definitely has code bases that are extremely messy, where they’re testing these new ideas. Multi-head latent attention probably could start in something like a Jupyter Notebook, or somebody tries something on a few GPUs and that is really messy. But the stuff that trains the DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek-R1, those libraries, if you were to present them to us, I would guess are extremely high-quality code.
I’m sure DeepSeek definitely has code bases that are extremely messy, where they’re testing these new ideas. Multi-head latent attention probably could start in something like a Jupyter Notebook, or somebody tries something on a few GPUs and that is really messy. But the stuff that trains the DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek-R1, those libraries, if you were to present them to us, I would guess are extremely high-quality code.
Lex Fridman
So, high-quality, readable code. Yeah.
So, high-quality, readable code. Yeah.
Dylan Patel
I think there is one aspect to note though is that there is the general ability for that to transfer across different types of runs. You may make really, really high-quality code for one specific model architecture at one size, and then that is not transferable to, ” Hey, when I make this architecture tweak, everything’s broken again,” right?
I think there is one aspect to note though is that there is the general ability for that to transfer across different types of runs. You may make really, really high-quality code for one specific model architecture at one size, and then that is not transferable to, ” Hey, when I make this architecture tweak, everything’s broken again,” right?
That’s something that could be with their specific low-level coding of scheduling SMs is specific to this model architecture and size. Whereas, Nvidia’s Collectives Library is more like, “Hey, it’ll work for anything,” right? “You want to do an allreduce? Great, I don’t care what your model architecture is, it’ll work,” and you’re giving up a lot of performance when you do that in many cases, but it’s worthwhile for them to do the specific optimization for the specific run given the constraints that they have regarding compute.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how stressful it is to these frontier models, like initiate training to have the code-
I wonder how stressful it is to these frontier models, like initiate training to have the code-
Dylan Patel
Push the button.
Push the button.
Lex Fridman
… to push the button that you’re now spending a large amount of money and time to train this. I mean, there must be a lot of innovation on the debugging stage of making sure there’s no issues, that you’re monitoring and visualizing every aspect of the training, all that kind of stuff.
… to push the button that you’re now spending a large amount of money and time to train this. I mean, there must be a lot of innovation on the debugging stage of making sure there’s no issues, that you’re monitoring and visualizing every aspect of the training, all that kind of stuff.
Dylan Patel
When people are training, they have all these various dashboards, but the most simple one is your loss, right? And it continues to go down, but in reality, especially with more complicated stuff like MoE, the biggest problem with it, or FP8 training, which is another innovation, going to a lower precision number format i.e., less accurate is that you end up with loss spikes. And no one knows why the loss spike happened. And for a long-
When people are training, they have all these various dashboards, but the most simple one is your loss, right? And it continues to go down, but in reality, especially with more complicated stuff like MoE, the biggest problem with it, or FP8 training, which is another innovation, going to a lower precision number format i.e., less accurate is that you end up with loss spikes. And no one knows why the loss spike happened. And for a long-
Nathan Lambert
Some of them, you do.
Some of them, you do.
Dylan Patel
Some of them, you do.
Some of them, you do.
Nathan Lambert
Some of them are bad data. Can I give Ai2’s example of what blew up our earlier models is a Subreddit called microwavegang. We love to shout this out. It’s a real thing. You can pull up microwavegang. Essentially it’s a Subreddit where everybody makes posts that are just the letter M. So it’s like, mmm. So there’s extremely long sequences of the letter M and then the comments are like beep beep because it’s in the micro events.
Some of them are bad data. Can I give Ai2’s example of what blew up our earlier models is a Subreddit called microwavegang. We love to shout this out. It’s a real thing. You can pull up microwavegang. Essentially it’s a Subreddit where everybody makes posts that are just the letter M. So it’s like, mmm. So there’s extremely long sequences of the letter M and then the comments are like beep beep because it’s in the micro events.
Dylan Patel
Yeah.
Yeah.
Nathan Lambert
But if you pass this into a model that’s trained to be a normal producing text, it’s extremely high-loss because normally you see an M, you don’t predict Ms for a long time. So this is something that caused loss spikes for us. But when you have much … This is old, this is not recent. And when you have more mature data systems, that’s not the thing that causes the loss spike. And what Dylan is saying is true, but it’s levels to this sort of idea.
But if you pass this into a model that’s trained to be a normal producing text, it’s extremely high-loss because normally you see an M, you don’t predict Ms for a long time. So this is something that caused loss spikes for us. But when you have much … This is old, this is not recent. And when you have more mature data systems, that’s not the thing that causes the loss spike. And what Dylan is saying is true, but it’s levels to this sort of idea.
Dylan Patel
With regards to the stress, these people are like … You’ll go out to dinner with a friend that works at one of these labs and they’ll just be looking at their phone every 10 minutes and they’re not … You know, it’s one thing if they’re texting, but they’re just like, “Is the loss … Is the loss spike okay?”
With regards to the stress, these people are like … You’ll go out to dinner with a friend that works at one of these labs and they’ll just be looking at their phone every 10 minutes and they’re not … You know, it’s one thing if they’re texting, but they’re just like, “Is the loss … Is the loss spike okay?”
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. It’s like tokens per second. Loss not blown up. They’re just watching this.
Yeah. It’s like tokens per second. Loss not blown up. They’re just watching this.
Lex Fridman
And the heart rate goes up if there’s a spike.
And the heart rate goes up if there’s a spike.
Dylan Patel
And some level of spikes is normal, it’ll recover and be back. Sometimes a lot of the old strategy was like, you just stop the run, restart from the old version and then change the data mix and then it keeps going.
And some level of spikes is normal, it’ll recover and be back. Sometimes a lot of the old strategy was like, you just stop the run, restart from the old version and then change the data mix and then it keeps going.
Nathan Lambert
There are even different types of spikes. So Dirk Groeneveld has a theory today too, that’s like fast spikes and slow spikes, where there are, sometimes where you’re looking at the loss and there are other parameters, you could see it start to creep up and then blow up, and that’s really hard to recover from. So you have to go back much further.
There are even different types of spikes. So Dirk Groeneveld has a theory today too, that’s like fast spikes and slow spikes, where there are, sometimes where you’re looking at the loss and there are other parameters, you could see it start to creep up and then blow up, and that’s really hard to recover from. So you have to go back much further.
So you have the stressful period where it’s flat or it might start going up and you’re like, “What do I do?” Whereas, there are also loss spikes that are, it looks good and then there’s one spiky data point. And what you could do is you just skip those. You see that there’s a spike. You’re like, “Okay, I can ignore this data. Don’t update the model and do the next one, and it’ll recover quickly.”
But on trickier implementations, so as you get more complex in your architecture and you scale up to more GPUs, you have more potential for your loss blowing up. So it’s like, there’s a distribution.
Dylan Patel
And then the whole idea of grokking also comes in, right? It’s like, just because it slowed down from improving in loss doesn’t mean it’s not learning because all of a sudden it could be like this and it could just spike down in loss again because it truly learned something, right? And it took some time for it to learn that. It’s not a gradual process, and that’s what humans are like. That’s what models are like. So it’s really a stressful task, as you mentioned.
And then the whole idea of grokking also comes in, right? It’s like, just because it slowed down from improving in loss doesn’t mean it’s not learning because all of a sudden it could be like this and it could just spike down in loss again because it truly learned something, right? And it took some time for it to learn that. It’s not a gradual process, and that’s what humans are like. That’s what models are like. So it’s really a stressful task, as you mentioned.
Lex Fridman
And the whole time the dollar count is going up.
And the whole time the dollar count is going up.
Nathan Lambert
Every company has failed runs. You need failed run to push the envelope on your infrastructure. So, a lot of news cycles are made of X company had Y failed run. Every company that’s trying to push the frontier of AI has these. So yes, it’s noteworthy because it’s a lot of money and it can be week to a month setback, but it is part of the process.
Every company has failed runs. You need failed run to push the envelope on your infrastructure. So, a lot of news cycles are made of X company had Y failed run. Every company that’s trying to push the frontier of AI has these. So yes, it’s noteworthy because it’s a lot of money and it can be week to a month setback, but it is part of the process.
Lex Fridman
But if you’re DeepSeek, how do you get to a place where holy shit, there’s a successful combination of hyperparameters?
But if you’re DeepSeek, how do you get to a place where holy shit, there’s a successful combination of hyperparameters?
Nathan Lambert
A lot of small failed runs.
A lot of small failed runs.
Lex Fridman
So, rapid iteration through failed runs until-
So, rapid iteration through failed runs until-
Nathan Lambert
And successful ones.
And successful ones.
Lex Fridman
And then you build up some intuition, like this mixture of expert works and then this implementation of MLA works.
And then you build up some intuition, like this mixture of expert works and then this implementation of MLA works.
Nathan Lambert
Key hyperparameters, like learning rate and regularization and things like this, and you find the regime that works for your code base. Talking to people at Frontier Labs, there’s a story that you can tell where training language models is kind of a path that you need to follow. So you need to unlock the ability to train a certain type of model or a certain scale, and then your code base and your internal know-how of which hyperparameters work for IT is kind of known.
Key hyperparameters, like learning rate and regularization and things like this, and you find the regime that works for your code base. Talking to people at Frontier Labs, there’s a story that you can tell where training language models is kind of a path that you need to follow. So you need to unlock the ability to train a certain type of model or a certain scale, and then your code base and your internal know-how of which hyperparameters work for IT is kind of known.
And you look at the DeepSeek papers and models, they’ve scaled up, they’ve added complexity, and it’s just continuing to build the capabilities that they have.
Dylan Patel
There’s the concept of a YOLO run. So YOLO, you only live once.
There’s the concept of a YOLO run. So YOLO, you only live once.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
Dylan Patel
What it is, is there’s all this experimentation you do at the small scale, research ablations. You have your Jupyter Notebook where you’re experimenting with MLA on three GPUs or whatever and you’re doing all these different things like, “Hey, do I do four active experts, 128 experts? Do I arrange the experts this way?” All these different model architecture things, you’re testing at a very small scale. Right?
What it is, is there’s all this experimentation you do at the small scale, research ablations. You have your Jupyter Notebook where you’re experimenting with MLA on three GPUs or whatever and you’re doing all these different things like, “Hey, do I do four active experts, 128 experts? Do I arrange the experts this way?” All these different model architecture things, you’re testing at a very small scale. Right?
A couple of researchers, few GPUs, tens of GPUs, hundreds of GPUs, whatever it is. And then all of a sudden you’re like, “Okay, guys. No more fucking around. No more screwing around. Everyone, take all the resources we have. Let’s pick what we think will work and just go for it. YOLO.”
And this is where that sort of stress comes in is like, “Well, I know it works here, but some things that work here don’t work here. And some things that work here don’t work down here in this terms of scale.” So it’s really truly a YOLO run. And there’s this discussion of certain researchers just have this methodical nature. They can find the whole search space and figure out all the ablations of different research and really see what is best. And there’s certain researchers who just have that innate gut instinct of like, “This is the YOLO run. I’m looking at the data. I think this is it.”
Nathan Lambert
This is why you want to work in post-training because the GPU cost for training is lower. So you can make a higher percentage of your training runs YOLO runs.
This is why you want to work in post-training because the GPU cost for training is lower. So you can make a higher percentage of your training runs YOLO runs.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
For now.
For now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, for now.
Yeah, for now.
Nathan Lambert
For now. For now.
For now. For now.
Lex Fridman
So some of this is fundamentally luck, still.
So some of this is fundamentally luck, still.
Dylan Patel
Luck is skill, right, in many cases?
Luck is skill, right, in many cases?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean, it looks lucky, right, when you’re-
Yeah. I mean, it looks lucky, right, when you’re-
Nathan Lambert
But the hill to climb, if you’re on one of these labs, you have an evaluation you’re not crushing, there’s a repeated playbook of how you improve things. There are localized improvements, which might be data improvements. And these add up into the whole model just being much better.
But the hill to climb, if you’re on one of these labs, you have an evaluation you’re not crushing, there’s a repeated playbook of how you improve things. There are localized improvements, which might be data improvements. And these add up into the whole model just being much better.
And when you zoom in really close, it can be really obvious that this model is just really bad at this thing and we can fix it and you just add these up. So some of it feels like luck, but on the ground, especially with these new reasoning models we’re talking to is just so many ways that we could poke around. And normally, it’s that some of them give big improvements.
Dylan Patel
The search space is near infinite and yet the amount of compute and time you have is very low, and you have to hit release schedules. You have to not get blown past by everyone. Otherwise, what happened with DeepSeek crushing Meta and Mistral and Cohere and all these guys, they moved too slow. They maybe were too methodical. I don’t know, they didn’t hit the YOLO run. Whatever the reason was, maybe they weren’t as skilled. Whatever, you can call it luck if you want, but at the end of the day, it’s skill.
The search space is near infinite and yet the amount of compute and time you have is very low, and you have to hit release schedules. You have to not get blown past by everyone. Otherwise, what happened with DeepSeek crushing Meta and Mistral and Cohere and all these guys, they moved too slow. They maybe were too methodical. I don’t know, they didn’t hit the YOLO run. Whatever the reason was, maybe they weren’t as skilled. Whatever, you can call it luck if you want, but at the end of the day, it’s skill.
Lex Fridman
So 2025 is the year of the YOLO run. It seems like all the labs are going in.
So 2025 is the year of the YOLO run. It seems like all the labs are going in.
Dylan Patel
I think it’s even more impressive what OpenAI did in 2022. At the time, no one believed in mixture of experts models at Google who had all the researchers. OpenAI had such little compute and they devoted all of their compute for many months, all of it, 100% for many months to GPT-4 with a brand-new architecture with no belief that, “Hey, let me spend a couple of hundred million dollars, which is all of the money I have on this model.” That is truly YOLO.
I think it’s even more impressive what OpenAI did in 2022. At the time, no one believed in mixture of experts models at Google who had all the researchers. OpenAI had such little compute and they devoted all of their compute for many months, all of it, 100% for many months to GPT-4 with a brand-new architecture with no belief that, “Hey, let me spend a couple of hundred million dollars, which is all of the money I have on this model.” That is truly YOLO.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Right?
Right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Now people have all these training run failures that are in the media, right? It’s like, “Okay, great, but actually a huge chunk of my GPUs are doing inference. I still have a bunch doing research constantly. And yes, my biggest cluster is training, but on this YOLO run,” but that YOLO run is much less risky than what OpenAI did in 2022, or maybe what DeepSeek did now or sort of like, “Hey, we’re just going to throw everything at it.”
Now people have all these training run failures that are in the media, right? It’s like, “Okay, great, but actually a huge chunk of my GPUs are doing inference. I still have a bunch doing research constantly. And yes, my biggest cluster is training, but on this YOLO run,” but that YOLO run is much less risky than what OpenAI did in 2022, or maybe what DeepSeek did now or sort of like, “Hey, we’re just going to throw everything at it.”
Lex Fridman
The big winners throughout human history are the ones who are willing to do YOLO at some point. Okay. What do we understand about the hardware it’s been trained on, DeepSeek?
The big winners throughout human history are the ones who are willing to do YOLO at some point. Okay. What do we understand about the hardware it’s been trained on, DeepSeek?
DeepSeek compute cluster
Dylan Patel
DeepSeek is very interesting. This is where a second could take to zoom out, out of who they are first of all, right? High-Flyer is a hedge fund that has historically done quantitative trading in China as well as elsewhere. And they have always had a significant number of GPUs, right?
DeepSeek is very interesting. This is where a second could take to zoom out, out of who they are first of all, right? High-Flyer is a hedge fund that has historically done quantitative trading in China as well as elsewhere. And they have always had a significant number of GPUs, right?
In the past, a lot of these high-frequency trading, algorithmic quant traders used FPGAs, but it shifted to GPUs definitely. And there’s both, but GPUs especially. And High-Flyer, which is the hedge fund that owns DeepSeek, and everyone who works for DeepSeek is part of High-Flyer to some extent. Same parent company, same owner, same CEO, they had all these resources and infrastructure for trading, and then they devoted a humongous portion of them to training models, both language models and otherwise, because these techniques were heavily AI-influenced.
More recently, people have realized, “Hey, trading with …” Even when you go back to Renaissance and all these quantitative firms, natural language processing is the key to trading really fast, understanding a press release and making the right trade. And so DeepSeek has always been really good at this.
And even as far back as 2021, they have press releases and papers saying, “Hey, we’re the first company in China with an A100 cluster this large.” It was 10,000 A100 GPUs, right? This is in 2021. Now, this wasn’t all for training large language models. This was mostly for training models for their quantitative aspects, quantitative trading as well as a lot of that was natural language processing, to be clear. Right?
And so this is the sort of history, right? So verifiable fact is that in 2021, they built the largest cluster, at least they claim it was the largest cluster in China, 10,000 GPUs.
Nathan Lambert
Before export controls started.
Before export controls started.
Dylan Patel
Yeah.
Yeah.
Nathan Lambert
It’s like they’ve had a huge cluster before any conversation of export controls.
It’s like they’ve had a huge cluster before any conversation of export controls.
Dylan Patel
So then you step it forward to, what have they done over the last four years since then? Obviously, they’ve continued to operate the hedge fund, probably make tons of money. And the other thing is that they’ve leaned more and more and more into AI. The CEO, Lian Chingfeng … Lian-
So then you step it forward to, what have they done over the last four years since then? Obviously, they’ve continued to operate the hedge fund, probably make tons of money. And the other thing is that they’ve leaned more and more and more into AI. The CEO, Lian Chingfeng … Lian-
Nathan Lambert
You’re not putting me on the spot on this. We discussed this before.
You’re not putting me on the spot on this. We discussed this before.
Dylan Patel
Lian Feng, right, the CEO, he owns maybe … Lian Feng, he owns maybe a little bit more than half the company allegedly, is an extremely Elon, Jensen kind of figure where he’s just involved in everything. Right?
Lian Feng, right, the CEO, he owns maybe … Lian Feng, he owns maybe a little bit more than half the company allegedly, is an extremely Elon, Jensen kind of figure where he’s just involved in everything. Right?
And so over that time period, he’s gotten really in depth into AI. He actually has a bit of a, if you see some of his statements, a bit of an IAK vibe almost, right?
Nathan Lambert
Total AGI vibes, like, “We need to do this. We need to make a new ecosystem of OpenAI. We need China to lead on this sort of ecosystem because historically, the western countries have led on software ecosystems.” And straight up acknowledges, “In order to do this, we need to do something different.” DeepSeek is his way of doing this. Some of the translated interviews with him are fantastic.
Total AGI vibes, like, “We need to do this. We need to make a new ecosystem of OpenAI. We need China to lead on this sort of ecosystem because historically, the western countries have led on software ecosystems.” And straight up acknowledges, “In order to do this, we need to do something different.” DeepSeek is his way of doing this. Some of the translated interviews with him are fantastic.
Lex Fridman
So he has done interviews?
So he has done interviews?
Nathan Lambert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Do you think you would do a western interview, or no, or is there controls on the channel?
Do you think you would do a western interview, or no, or is there controls on the channel?
Nathan Lambert
There hasn’t been one yet, but I would try it.
There hasn’t been one yet, but I would try it.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right. Well, I just got a Chinese translator, so it was great. This is a push. So fascinating figure, engineer pushing full on into AI, leveraging the success from the high-frequency trading.
Okay. All right. Well, I just got a Chinese translator, so it was great. This is a push. So fascinating figure, engineer pushing full on into AI, leveraging the success from the high-frequency trading.
Nathan Lambert
Very direct quotes. “We will not switch to closed source,” when asked about this stuff. Very long-term motivated in how the ecosystem of AI should work. And I think from a Chinese perspective, he wants a Chinese company to build this vision.
Very direct quotes. “We will not switch to closed source,” when asked about this stuff. Very long-term motivated in how the ecosystem of AI should work. And I think from a Chinese perspective, he wants a Chinese company to build this vision.
Dylan Patel
And so this is sort of like the “visionary behind the company.” This hedge fund still exists, this quantitative firm. And so DeepSeek is the sort of … Slowly, he got turned to this full view of AI, everything about this, but at some point it slowly maneuvered and he made DeepSeek.
And so this is sort of like the “visionary behind the company.” This hedge fund still exists, this quantitative firm. And so DeepSeek is the sort of … Slowly, he got turned to this full view of AI, everything about this, but at some point it slowly maneuvered and he made DeepSeek.
And DeepSeek has done multiple models since then. They’ve acquired more and more GPUs. They share infrastructure with the fund. Right? And so there is no exact number of public GPU resources that they have. But besides this 10,000 GPUs that they bought in 2021, and they were fantastically profitable, and then this paper claims they did only 2,000 H800 GPUs, which are a restricted GPU that was previously allowed in China, but no longer allowed. And there’s a new version, but it’s basically Nvidia’s H100 for China.
And there’s some restrictions on it specifically around the communications sort of speed, the interconnect speed, which is why they had to do this crazy SM scheduling stuff. So going back to that, it’s like this is obviously not true in terms of their total GPU count.
Lex Fridman
Obvious available GPUs, but for this training run, you think 2,000 is the correct number, or no?
Obvious available GPUs, but for this training run, you think 2,000 is the correct number, or no?
Dylan Patel
So this is where it takes a significant amount of zoning in. What do you call your training run, right? You count all of the research and ablations that you ran, right? Picking all this stuff because yes, you can do a YOLO run, but at some level you have to do the test at the small scale and then you have to do some test at medium scale before you go to a large scale.
So this is where it takes a significant amount of zoning in. What do you call your training run, right? You count all of the research and ablations that you ran, right? Picking all this stuff because yes, you can do a YOLO run, but at some level you have to do the test at the small scale and then you have to do some test at medium scale before you go to a large scale.
Nathan Lambert
Accepted practice is that for any given model that is a notable advancement, you’re going to do two to 4x compute of the full training run in experiments alone.
Accepted practice is that for any given model that is a notable advancement, you’re going to do two to 4x compute of the full training run in experiments alone.
Lex Fridman
So a lot of this compute that’s being scaled up is probably used in large part at this time for research?
So a lot of this compute that’s being scaled up is probably used in large part at this time for research?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. And research begets the new ideas that lets you get huge efficiency.
Yeah. And research begets the new ideas that lets you get huge efficiency.
Nathan Lambert
Research gets you o1. Research gets you breakthroughs and you need to bet on it.
Research gets you o1. Research gets you breakthroughs and you need to bet on it.
Lex Fridman
So some of the pricing strategy that we’ll discuss has the research baked into the price?
So some of the pricing strategy that we’ll discuss has the research baked into the price?
Dylan Patel
So the numbers that DeepSeek specifically said publicly are just the 10,000 GPUs in 2021 and then 2,000 GPUs for only the pre-training for V3. They did not discuss cost on R1. They did not discuss cost on all the other RL for the instruct model that they made. They only discussed the pre-training for the base model and they did not discuss anything on research and ablations. And they do not talk about any of the resources that are shared in terms of, “Hey, the fund is using all these GPUs,” right?
So the numbers that DeepSeek specifically said publicly are just the 10,000 GPUs in 2021 and then 2,000 GPUs for only the pre-training for V3. They did not discuss cost on R1. They did not discuss cost on all the other RL for the instruct model that they made. They only discussed the pre-training for the base model and they did not discuss anything on research and ablations. And they do not talk about any of the resources that are shared in terms of, “Hey, the fund is using all these GPUs,” right?
And we know that they’re very profitable and they had 10,000 GPUs in 2021. So, some of the research that we’ve found is that we actually believe they have closer to 50,000 GPUs.
Lex Fridman
We as semi-analysis. So we should say that you’re sort of one of the world experts in figuring out what everybody’s doing in terms of the semiconductor, in terms of cluster buildouts, in terms of who is doing what in terms of training runs. So yeah, that’s the we. Okay, go ahead.
We as semi-analysis. So we should say that you’re sort of one of the world experts in figuring out what everybody’s doing in terms of the semiconductor, in terms of cluster buildouts, in terms of who is doing what in terms of training runs. So yeah, that’s the we. Okay, go ahead.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, sorry. We believe they actually have something closer to 50,000 GPUs, right? Now this is split across many tasks, right? Again, the fund, research and ablations.
Yeah, sorry. We believe they actually have something closer to 50,000 GPUs, right? Now this is split across many tasks, right? Again, the fund, research and ablations.
Nathan Lambert
For ballpark, how much would OpenAI or Anthropic had. I think the clearest example we have, because Meta is also open, they talk about order of 60k to 100k H100 equivalent GPUs in their training clusters.
For ballpark, how much would OpenAI or Anthropic had. I think the clearest example we have, because Meta is also open, they talk about order of 60k to 100k H100 equivalent GPUs in their training clusters.
Dylan Patel
Right. So Llama 3, they trained on 16,000 H100s, but the company of Meta last year publicly disclosed they bought 400 something thousand GPUs.
Right. So Llama 3, they trained on 16,000 H100s, but the company of Meta last year publicly disclosed they bought 400 something thousand GPUs.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Right? So of course, tiny percentage on the training. Again, most of it is serving me the best Instagram Reels or whatever.
Right? So of course, tiny percentage on the training. Again, most of it is serving me the best Instagram Reels or whatever.
Nathan Lambert
I mean, we could get into a cost of, what is the cost of ownership for a 2,000 GPU cluster, 10,000? There’s just different sizes of companies that can afford these things and DeepSeek is reasonably big. Their compute allocation is one of the top few in the world that’s not OpenAI, Anthropic, et cetera, but they have a lot of compute.
I mean, we could get into a cost of, what is the cost of ownership for a 2,000 GPU cluster, 10,000? There’s just different sizes of companies that can afford these things and DeepSeek is reasonably big. Their compute allocation is one of the top few in the world that’s not OpenAI, Anthropic, et cetera, but they have a lot of compute.
Export controls on GPUs to China
Lex Fridman
Can you in gentlemen actually just zoom out and also talk about the Hopper architecture, the Nvidia Hopper GPU architecture and the difference between H100 and H800, like you mentioned, the interconnects?
Can you in gentlemen actually just zoom out and also talk about the Hopper architecture, the Nvidia Hopper GPU architecture and the difference between H100 and H800, like you mentioned, the interconnects?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. So there’s, Ampere was the A100 and then H100 Hopper, right? People use them synonymously in the U.S. because really there’s just H100 and now there’s H200, right, but same thing mostly?
Yeah. So there’s, Ampere was the A100 and then H100 Hopper, right? People use them synonymously in the U.S. because really there’s just H100 and now there’s H200, right, but same thing mostly?
In China, there’ve been different salvos of expert restrictions. So initially, the U.S. government limited on a two-factor scale, which is chip interconnect versus FLOPs. So any chip that had interconnects above a certain level and FLOPs above a certain … Floating point operations above a certain level was restricted.
Later, the government realized that this was a flaw in the restriction and they cut it down to just floating point operations. And so-
Nathan Lambert
H800 had high FLOPs, low communication?
H800 had high FLOPs, low communication?
Dylan Patel
Exactly. So, the H800 was the same performance as H100 on FLOPs, but it just had the interconnect bandwidth cut. DeepSeek knew how to utilize this. “Hey, even though we’re cut back on the interconnect, we can do all this fancy stuff to figure out how to use the GPU fully anyways.”
Exactly. So, the H800 was the same performance as H100 on FLOPs, but it just had the interconnect bandwidth cut. DeepSeek knew how to utilize this. “Hey, even though we’re cut back on the interconnect, we can do all this fancy stuff to figure out how to use the GPU fully anyways.”
And so that was back in October 2022. But later in 2023, into 2023 implemented in 2024, the U.S. government banned the H800. Right? And so by the way, this H800 cluster, these 2,000 GPUs was not even purchased in 2024. It was purchased in late 2023. And they’re just getting the model out now because it takes a lot of research, et cetera.
H800 was banned and now there’s a new chip called the H20. The H20 is cut back on only FLOPs, but the interconnect bandwidth is the same. And in fact, in some ways it’s better than the H100 because it has better memory bandwidth and memory capacity. So Nvidia is working within the constraints of what the government sets and then builds the best possible GPU for China.
Lex Fridman
Can we take this actual tangent and we’ll return back to the hardware, is the philosophy, the motivation, the case for export controls? What is it? Dario Amodei just published a blog post about export controls. The case he makes is that if AI becomes super powerful and he says by 2026, we’ll have AGI or super powerful AI and that’s going to give a significant … Whoever builds that will have a significant military advantage.
Can we take this actual tangent and we’ll return back to the hardware, is the philosophy, the motivation, the case for export controls? What is it? Dario Amodei just published a blog post about export controls. The case he makes is that if AI becomes super powerful and he says by 2026, we’ll have AGI or super powerful AI and that’s going to give a significant … Whoever builds that will have a significant military advantage.
And so because The United States is a democracy and as he says, China is authoritarian or has authoritarian elements, you want a unipolar world where the super powerful military, because of the AI is one that’s a democracy. It’s a much more complicated world geopolitically when you have two superpowers with super powerful AI and one is authoritarian.
So, that’s the case he makes. And so the United States wants to use export controls to slow down, to make sure that China can’t do these gigantic training runs that will be presumably required to build the AGI.
Nathan Lambert
This is very abstract. I think this can be the goal of how some people describe export controls, is this super powerful AI. And you touched on the training run idea. There’s not many worlds where China cannot train AI models. I think export controls are decapping the amount of compute or the density of compute that China can have.
This is very abstract. I think this can be the goal of how some people describe export controls, is this super powerful AI. And you touched on the training run idea. There’s not many worlds where China cannot train AI models. I think export controls are decapping the amount of compute or the density of compute that China can have.
And if you think about the AI ecosystem right now, as all of these AI companies, revenue numbers are up and to the right. Their AI usage is just continuing to grow, more GPUs are going to inference. A large part of export controls, if they work is just that the amount of AI that can be run in China is going to be much lower.
So on the training side, DeepSeek V3 is a great example, which you have a very focused team that can still get to the frontier of AI on … This 2,000 GPUs is not that hard to get all considering in the world. They’re still going to have those GPUs. They’re still going to be able to train models. But if there’s going to be a huge market for AI, if you have strong export controls and you want to have 100,000 GPUs just serving the equivalent of ChatGPT clusters with good export controls, it also just makes it so that AI can be used much less.
And I think that is a much easier goal to achieve than trying to debate on what AGI is. And if you have these extremely intelligent autonomous AIs and data centers, those are the things that could be running in these GPU clusters in the United States, but not in China.
Dylan Patel
To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing. They have a model. The thing that Dario is sort of speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities, huge increases in productivity of people, betterment of lives. Whatever you want to direct super powerful AI towards, you can, but that requires a significant amounts of compute.
To some extent, training a model does effectively nothing. They have a model. The thing that Dario is sort of speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities, huge increases in productivity of people, betterment of lives. Whatever you want to direct super powerful AI towards, you can, but that requires a significant amounts of compute.
And so the U.S. government has effectively said … And forever, training will always be a portion of the total compute. We mentioned Meta’s 400,000 GPUs. Only 16,000 made Llama. Right? So the percentage that Meta’s dedicating to inference, now this might be for recommendation systems that are trying to hack our mind into spending more time and watching more ads, or if it’s for a super powerful AI that’s doing productive things, it doesn’t matter about the exact use that our economic system decides. It’s that, that can be delivered in whatever way we want.
Whereas with China, you know, your expert restrictions, great. You’re never going to be able to cut everything off. And I think that’s quite a well-understood by the U.S. government is that you can’t cut everything off.
Nathan Lambert
And they’ll make their own chips.
And they’ll make their own chips.
Dylan Patel
And they’re trying to make their own chips. They’ll be worse than ours, but the whole point is to just keep a gap. And therefore at some point, as the AI … In a world where two, 3% economic growth, this is really dumb by the way, to cut off high-tech and not make money off of it. But in a world where super powerful AI comes about and then starts creating significant changes in society, which is what all the AI leaders and big tech companies believe. I think super powerful AI is going to change society massively.
And they’re trying to make their own chips. They’ll be worse than ours, but the whole point is to just keep a gap. And therefore at some point, as the AI … In a world where two, 3% economic growth, this is really dumb by the way, to cut off high-tech and not make money off of it. But in a world where super powerful AI comes about and then starts creating significant changes in society, which is what all the AI leaders and big tech companies believe. I think super powerful AI is going to change society massively.
And therefore, this compounding effect of the difference in compute is really important. There’s some sci-fi out there where AI is measured in how much power is delivered to compute, right, or how much is being … That’s sort of a way of thinking about what’s the economic output, is just how much power are you directing towards that AI?
Nathan Lambert
Should we talk about reasoning models with this, as a way that this might be actionable as something that people can actually see? So, the reasoning models that are coming out with R1 and o1, they’re designed to use more compute. There’s a lot of buzzy words in the AI community about this, test-time compute, inference time compute, whatever.
Should we talk about reasoning models with this, as a way that this might be actionable as something that people can actually see? So, the reasoning models that are coming out with R1 and o1, they’re designed to use more compute. There’s a lot of buzzy words in the AI community about this, test-time compute, inference time compute, whatever.
But Dylan has good research on this. You can get to the specific numbers on the ratio of when you train a model, you can look at things. It’s about the amount of compute used at training and amount of compute used at inference.
These reasoning models are making inference way more important to doing complex tasks. In the fall in December, OpenAI announced this o3 model. There’s another thing in AI, when things move fast, we get both announcements and releases. Announcements are essentially blog posts where you pat yourself on the back and you say you did things and releases are when the model’s out there, the paper’s out there, et cetera.
So OpenAI has announced o3. I mean, we can check if o3-mini is out as of recording potentially, but that doesn’t really change the point, which is that the breakthrough result was something called ARC-AGI task, which is the abstract reasoning corpus, a task for artificial general intelligence. François Chollet is the guy who’s been … It’s a multi-year-old paper. It’s a brilliant benchmark. And the number for open AI o3 to solve this was that it used some sort of number of samples in the API. The API has thinking effort and number of samples. They used 1,000 samples to solve this task and it comes out to be five to $20 per question, which you’re putting in effectively a math puzzle. And then it takes orders of dollars to answer one question, and this is a lot of compute.
If those are going to take off in the U.S., OpenAI needs a ton of GPUs on inference to capture this. They have this OpenAI ChatGPT Pro subscription, which is $200 a month-
Dylan Patel
Which Sam said they’re losing money on.
Which Sam said they’re losing money on.
Nathan Lambert
Which means that people are burning a lot of GPUs on inference. And I’ve signed up with it, I’ve played with it. I don’t think I’m a power user, but I use it. And it’s like, that is the thing that a Chinese company with mediumly strong expert controls, there will always be loopholes, might not be able to do it all.
Which means that people are burning a lot of GPUs on inference. And I’ve signed up with it, I’ve played with it. I don’t think I’m a power user, but I use it. And it’s like, that is the thing that a Chinese company with mediumly strong expert controls, there will always be loopholes, might not be able to do it all.
And if the main result for o3 is also a spectacular coding performance, and if that feeds back into AI companies being able to experiment better.
Lex Fridman
So presumably, the idea is for an AGI, a much larger fraction of the compute would be used for this test-time compute, for the reasoning, for the AGI goes into a room and thinks about how to take over the world and come back in 2.7 hours-
So presumably, the idea is for an AGI, a much larger fraction of the compute would be used for this test-time compute, for the reasoning, for the AGI goes into a room and thinks about how to take over the world and come back in 2.7 hours-
Nathan Lambert
This is what-
This is what-
Lex Fridman
… and that it’s going to take a lot of compute.
… and that it’s going to take a lot of compute.
Nathan Lambert
This is what people, CEO or leaders of OpenAI and Anthropic talk about, is autonomous AI models, which is you give them a task and they work on it in the background.
This is what people, CEO or leaders of OpenAI and Anthropic talk about, is autonomous AI models, which is you give them a task and they work on it in the background.
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that’s great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it’s a general intelligence to me.
But this next step of agentic things where they’re independent and they can do tasks that aren’t in the training data is what the few-year outlook that these AI companies are driving for.
Lex Fridman
I think the terminology here that Dario uses is super powerful AI. So I agree with you on the AGI. I think we already have something like that’s exceptionally impressive that Alan Turing would for sure say is AGI, but he’s referring more to something once in possession of, then you would have a significant military and geopolitical advantage over other nations. So it’s not just like you can ask it how to cook an omelet.
I think the terminology here that Dario uses is super powerful AI. So I agree with you on the AGI. I think we already have something like that’s exceptionally impressive that Alan Turing would for sure say is AGI, but he’s referring more to something once in possession of, then you would have a significant military and geopolitical advantage over other nations. So it’s not just like you can ask it how to cook an omelet.
Nathan Lambert
And he has a much more positive view. And as I say, machines of love and grace. I read into this and I don’t have enough background in physical sciences to gauge exactly how competent I am, and if AI can revolutionize biology. I am safe saying that AI is going to accelerate the progress of any computational science.
And he has a much more positive view. And as I say, machines of love and grace. I read into this and I don’t have enough background in physical sciences to gauge exactly how competent I am, and if AI can revolutionize biology. I am safe saying that AI is going to accelerate the progress of any computational science.
AGI timeline
Lex Fridman
So we’re doing a depth-first search here on topics, taking tangent of a tangent, so let’s continue on that depth-first search. You said that you’re both feeling the AGI. What’s your timeline? Dario is 2026 for the super powerful AI that’s basically agentic to a degree where it’s a real security threat, that level of AGI. What’s your timeline?
So we’re doing a depth-first search here on topics, taking tangent of a tangent, so let’s continue on that depth-first search. You said that you’re both feeling the AGI. What’s your timeline? Dario is 2026 for the super powerful AI that’s basically agentic to a degree where it’s a real security threat, that level of AGI. What’s your timeline?
Nathan Lambert
I don’t like to attribute specific abilities because predicting specific abilities and when is very hard. I think mostly if you’re going to say that I’m feeling the AGI is that I expect continued, rapid, surprising progress over the next few years. So, something like R1 is less surprising to me from DeepSeek because I expect there to be new paradigms versus …
I don’t like to attribute specific abilities because predicting specific abilities and when is very hard. I think mostly if you’re going to say that I’m feeling the AGI is that I expect continued, rapid, surprising progress over the next few years. So, something like R1 is less surprising to me from DeepSeek because I expect there to be new paradigms versus …
Nathan Lambert
… surprising to me from DeepSeek because I expect there to be new paradigms where substantial progress can be made. I think DeepSeek-R1 is so unsettling because we’re kind of on this path with ChatGPT. It’s like it’s getting better, it’s getting better, it’s getting better, and then we have a new direction for changing the models, and we took one step like this and we took a step-up. So it looks like a really fast slope, and then we’re going to just take more steps. So it’s just really unsettling when you have these big steps, and I expect that to keep happening. I’ve tried opening Operator, I’ve tried Claude computer use, they’re not there yet. I understand the idea, but it’s just so hard to predict what is the breakthrough that’ll make something like that work. And I think it’s more likely that we have breakthroughs that work in things that we don’t know what they’re going to do. So everyone wants agents. Dario has a very eloquent way of describing this, and I just think that it’s like there’s going to be more than that, so just expect these things to come.
… surprising to me from DeepSeek because I expect there to be new paradigms where substantial progress can be made. I think DeepSeek-R1 is so unsettling because we’re kind of on this path with ChatGPT. It’s like it’s getting better, it’s getting better, it’s getting better, and then we have a new direction for changing the models, and we took one step like this and we took a step-up. So it looks like a really fast slope, and then we’re going to just take more steps. So it’s just really unsettling when you have these big steps, and I expect that to keep happening. I’ve tried opening Operator, I’ve tried Claude computer use, they’re not there yet. I understand the idea, but it’s just so hard to predict what is the breakthrough that’ll make something like that work. And I think it’s more likely that we have breakthroughs that work in things that we don’t know what they’re going to do. So everyone wants agents. Dario has a very eloquent way of describing this, and I just think that it’s like there’s going to be more than that, so just expect these things to come.
Lex Fridman
I’m going to have to try to pin you down to a date on the AGI timeline. Like the nuclear weapon moment, so moment where on the geopolitical stage, there’s a real… Because we’re talking about export controls, when do you think, just even to throw out a date, when do you think that would be? For me, it’s probably after 2030, so I’m not as-
I’m going to have to try to pin you down to a date on the AGI timeline. Like the nuclear weapon moment, so moment where on the geopolitical stage, there’s a real… Because we’re talking about export controls, when do you think, just even to throw out a date, when do you think that would be? For me, it’s probably after 2030, so I’m not as-
Nathan Lambert
That’s what I would say.
That’s what I would say.
Dylan Patel
So define that. Because to me, it kind of almost has already happened. You look at elections in India and Pakistan, people get AI voice calls and think they’re talking to the politician. The AI diffusion rules, which was enacted in the last couple of weeks of the Biden admin, it looks like the Trump admin will keep and potentially even strengthen, limit cloud computing and GPU sales to countries that are not even related to China. It’s like this is-
So define that. Because to me, it kind of almost has already happened. You look at elections in India and Pakistan, people get AI voice calls and think they’re talking to the politician. The AI diffusion rules, which was enacted in the last couple of weeks of the Biden admin, it looks like the Trump admin will keep and potentially even strengthen, limit cloud computing and GPU sales to countries that are not even related to China. It’s like this is-
Nathan Lambert
Portugal and all these normal countries are on the… You need approval from the US list.
Portugal and all these normal countries are on the… You need approval from the US list.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, Portugal and all these countries that are allies. Singapore. They freaking have F-35s and we don’t let them buy GPUs. This to me is already to the scale of…
Yeah, Portugal and all these countries that are allies. Singapore. They freaking have F-35s and we don’t let them buy GPUs. This to me is already to the scale of…
Lex Fridman
Well, that just means that the US military is really nervous about this new technology. That doesn’t mean that technology is already there. So they might be just very cautious about this thing that they don’t quite understand. But that’s a really good point. The robocalls, swarms of semi-intelligent bots could be a weapon, could be doing a lot of social engineering.
Well, that just means that the US military is really nervous about this new technology. That doesn’t mean that technology is already there. So they might be just very cautious about this thing that they don’t quite understand. But that’s a really good point. The robocalls, swarms of semi-intelligent bots could be a weapon, could be doing a lot of social engineering.
Dylan Patel
I mean, there’s tons of talk about from the 2016 elections like Cambridge Analytica and all this stuff, Russian influence. I mean, every country in the world is pushing stuff onto the internet and has narratives they want. Every technically competent, whether it’s Russia, China, US, Israel, et cetera. People are pushing viewpoints onto the internet en masse. And language models crash the cost of very intelligent sounding language.
I mean, there’s tons of talk about from the 2016 elections like Cambridge Analytica and all this stuff, Russian influence. I mean, every country in the world is pushing stuff onto the internet and has narratives they want. Every technically competent, whether it’s Russia, China, US, Israel, et cetera. People are pushing viewpoints onto the internet en masse. And language models crash the cost of very intelligent sounding language.
Nathan Lambert
There’s some research that shows that the distribution is actually the limiting factor. So language models haven’t yet made misinformation particularly change the equation there. The internet is still ongoing. I think there’s a blog, AI Snake Oil and some of my friends at Princeton that write on this stuff. So there is research. It’s a default that everyone assumes. And I would’ve thought the same thing, is that misinformation doesn’t get far worse with language models. I think in terms of internet posts and things that people have been measuring, it hasn’t been a exponential increase or something extremely measurable and things you’re talking about with voice calls and stuff like that, it could be in modalities that are harder to measure.
There’s some research that shows that the distribution is actually the limiting factor. So language models haven’t yet made misinformation particularly change the equation there. The internet is still ongoing. I think there’s a blog, AI Snake Oil and some of my friends at Princeton that write on this stuff. So there is research. It’s a default that everyone assumes. And I would’ve thought the same thing, is that misinformation doesn’t get far worse with language models. I think in terms of internet posts and things that people have been measuring, it hasn’t been a exponential increase or something extremely measurable and things you’re talking about with voice calls and stuff like that, it could be in modalities that are harder to measure.
So it’s something that it’s too soon to tell in terms of… I think that’s political instability via the web is very… It’s monitored by a lot of researchers to see what’s happening. I think that… You’re asking about the AGI thing. If you’re making me give a year, I’m going to be like, “Okay, I have AI CEOs saying this. They’ve been saying two years for a while. I think that there are people like Dario at Anthropic, the CEO, has thought about this so deeply. I need to take their word seriously, but also understand that they have different incentives.” So I would be like, “Add a few years to that.” Which is how you get something similar to 2030 or a little after 2030.
Dylan Patel
I think to some extent, we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, “Oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, call it ’27, ’28.” But then the cost of actually operating that capability-
I think to some extent, we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, “Oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, call it ’27, ’28.” But then the cost of actually operating that capability-
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, this was going to be my point.
Yeah, this was going to be my point.
Dylan Patel
… is so, so extreme that no one can actually deploy it at scale en masse to actually completely revolutionize the economy on a snap of a finger. So I don’t think it will be a snap of the finger moment.
… is so, so extreme that no one can actually deploy it at scale en masse to actually completely revolutionize the economy on a snap of a finger. So I don’t think it will be a snap of the finger moment.
Nathan Lambert
It’s a physical constraint [inaudible 01:14:37].
It’s a physical constraint [inaudible 01:14:37].
Dylan Patel
Rather, it’ll be a, “Oh, the capabilities are here, but I can’t deploy it everywhere.” And so one simple example, going back sort of to 2023 was when being when GPT-4 came out, everyone was freaking out about search. Perplexity came out. If you did the cost on like, hey, implementing GPT-3 into every Google search, it was like, oh, okay, this is just physically impossible to implement. And as we step forward to going back to the test-time compute thing, a query for… You ask ChatGPT a question, it costs cents for their most capable model of Chat to get a query back. To solve an AGI problem though costs 5 to 20 bucks, and this is in-
Rather, it’ll be a, “Oh, the capabilities are here, but I can’t deploy it everywhere.” And so one simple example, going back sort of to 2023 was when being when GPT-4 came out, everyone was freaking out about search. Perplexity came out. If you did the cost on like, hey, implementing GPT-3 into every Google search, it was like, oh, okay, this is just physically impossible to implement. And as we step forward to going back to the test-time compute thing, a query for… You ask ChatGPT a question, it costs cents for their most capable model of Chat to get a query back. To solve an AGI problem though costs 5 to 20 bucks, and this is in-
Nathan Lambert
It’s only going up from there.
It’s only going up from there.
Dylan Patel
This is 1,000, 10,000 X factor difference in cost to respond to a query versus do a task. And the task of AGI is not like it’s like… It’s simple, to some extent, but it’s also like, what are the tasks that we want… Okay, AGI, “What we have today”, can do AGI. Three years from now, it can do much more complicated problems, but the cost is going to be measured in thousands and thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars of GPU time, and there just won’t be enough power, GPUs, infrastructure to operate this and therefore shift everything in the world on the snap the finger.
This is 1,000, 10,000 X factor difference in cost to respond to a query versus do a task. And the task of AGI is not like it’s like… It’s simple, to some extent, but it’s also like, what are the tasks that we want… Okay, AGI, “What we have today”, can do AGI. Three years from now, it can do much more complicated problems, but the cost is going to be measured in thousands and thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars of GPU time, and there just won’t be enough power, GPUs, infrastructure to operate this and therefore shift everything in the world on the snap the finger.
But at that moment, who gets to control and point the AGI at a task? And so this was in Dario’s post that he’s like, “Hey, China can effectively and more quickly than us, point their AGI at military tasks.” And they have been, in many ways, faster at adopting certain new technologies into their military, especially with regards to drones. The US maybe has a long-standing large air sort of fighter jet type of thing, bombers. But when it comes to asymmetric arms such as drones, they’ve completely leapfrogged the US and the West.
And the fear that Dario is sort of pointing out there, I think, is that, yeah, great, we’ll have AGI in the commercial sector. The US military won’t be able to implement it superfast. Chinese military could and they could direct all their resources to implementing it in the military, and therefore solving military logistics or solving some other aspect of disinformation for targeted certain set of people so they can flip a country’s politics or something like that that is actually catastrophic versus the US just wants to… Because it’ll be more capitalistically allocated just towards whatever is the highest return on income, which might be building factories better or whatever.
Lex Fridman
So everything I’ve seen, people’s intuition seems to fail on robotics. So you have this kind of general optimism. I’ve seen this on self-driving cars. People think it’s much easier problem than it is. Similar with drones, here, I understand it a little bit less, but I’ve just seen the reality of the war in Ukraine and the usage of drones on both sides. And it seems that humans still far outperform any fully autonomous systems. AI is an assistant, but humans drive. FPV drones where the human’s controlling most of it, just far, far, far outperforms AI systems. So I think it’s not obvious to me that we’re going to have swarms of autonomous robots anytime soon in the military context. Maybe the fastest I can imagine is 2030, which is why I said 2030 for the super powerful AI. Whenever you have large scale swarms of robots doing military actions, that’s when the world just starts to look different to me.
So everything I’ve seen, people’s intuition seems to fail on robotics. So you have this kind of general optimism. I’ve seen this on self-driving cars. People think it’s much easier problem than it is. Similar with drones, here, I understand it a little bit less, but I’ve just seen the reality of the war in Ukraine and the usage of drones on both sides. And it seems that humans still far outperform any fully autonomous systems. AI is an assistant, but humans drive. FPV drones where the human’s controlling most of it, just far, far, far outperforms AI systems. So I think it’s not obvious to me that we’re going to have swarms of autonomous robots anytime soon in the military context. Maybe the fastest I can imagine is 2030, which is why I said 2030 for the super powerful AI. Whenever you have large scale swarms of robots doing military actions, that’s when the world just starts to look different to me.
So that’s the thing I’m really worried about. But there could be cyber war, cyber war type of technologies that from social engineering to actually just swarms of robots that find attack vectors in our code bases and shut down power grids, that kind of stuff. And it could be one of those things like on any given weekend or something, power goes out, nobody knows why, and the world changes forever. Just power going out for two days in all of the United States, that will lead to murder, to chaos. But going back to export controls, do you see that as a useful way to control the balance of power geopolitically in the context of AI?
China’s manufacturing capacity
Dylan Patel
And I think going back to my viewpoint is if you believe we’re in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we’ve been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term. If you do not believe AI is going to make significant changes to society in the next 10 years or 5 years. Five-year timelines are sort of what the more executives and such of AI companies and even big tech companies believe. But even 10-year timelines, it’s reasonable. But once you get to, hey, these timelines are below that time period, then the only way to create a sizable advantage or disadvantage for America versus China is if you constrain and compute, because talent is not really something that’s constraining. China arguably has more talent, more STEM graduates, more programmers. The US can draw upon the world’s people, which it does. There’s tons of foreigners in the AI industry.
And I think going back to my viewpoint is if you believe we’re in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we’ve been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term. If you do not believe AI is going to make significant changes to society in the next 10 years or 5 years. Five-year timelines are sort of what the more executives and such of AI companies and even big tech companies believe. But even 10-year timelines, it’s reasonable. But once you get to, hey, these timelines are below that time period, then the only way to create a sizable advantage or disadvantage for America versus China is if you constrain and compute, because talent is not really something that’s constraining. China arguably has more talent, more STEM graduates, more programmers. The US can draw upon the world’s people, which it does. There’s tons of foreigners in the AI industry.
Nathan Lambert
So many of these AI teams are all people without a US passport.
So many of these AI teams are all people without a US passport.
Dylan Patel
Yeah. I mean, many of them are Chinese people who are moving to America, and that’s great. That’s exactly what we want. But that talent is one aspect, but I don’t think that’s one that is a measurable advantage for the US or not. It truly is just whether or not compute. Now, even on the compute side, when we look at chips versus data centers, China has the unprecedented ability to build ridiculous sums of power. Clockwork. They’re always building more and more power. They’ve got steel mills that individually are the size of the entire US industry. And they’ve got aluminum mills that consume gigawatts and gigawatts of power. And when we talk about what’s the biggest data center, OpenAI made this huge thing about Stargate, their announcement there, once it’s fully built out in a few years, it’ll be two gigawatts of power. And this is still smaller than the largest industrial facilities in China. China, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it’s just a question of when, not if.
Yeah. I mean, many of them are Chinese people who are moving to America, and that’s great. That’s exactly what we want. But that talent is one aspect, but I don’t think that’s one that is a measurable advantage for the US or not. It truly is just whether or not compute. Now, even on the compute side, when we look at chips versus data centers, China has the unprecedented ability to build ridiculous sums of power. Clockwork. They’re always building more and more power. They’ve got steel mills that individually are the size of the entire US industry. And they’ve got aluminum mills that consume gigawatts and gigawatts of power. And when we talk about what’s the biggest data center, OpenAI made this huge thing about Stargate, their announcement there, once it’s fully built out in a few years, it’ll be two gigawatts of power. And this is still smaller than the largest industrial facilities in China. China, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it’s just a question of when, not if.
Lex Fridman
So their industrial capacity far exceeds the United States’?
So their industrial capacity far exceeds the United States’?
Dylan Patel
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
They manufacture stuff. So long-term, they’re going to be manufacturing chips there?
They manufacture stuff. So long-term, they’re going to be manufacturing chips there?
Dylan Patel
Chips are a little bit more specialized. I’m specifically referring to the data centers. Fabs take huge amounts of power, don’t get me wrong. That’s not necessarily the gating factor there. The gating factor on how fast people can build the largest clusters today in the US is power. Now, it could be power generation, power transmission, substations, and all these sorts of transformers and all these things building the data center. These are all constraints on the US industry’s ability to build larger and larger training systems, as well as deploying more and more inference compute.
Chips are a little bit more specialized. I’m specifically referring to the data centers. Fabs take huge amounts of power, don’t get me wrong. That’s not necessarily the gating factor there. The gating factor on how fast people can build the largest clusters today in the US is power. Now, it could be power generation, power transmission, substations, and all these sorts of transformers and all these things building the data center. These are all constraints on the US industry’s ability to build larger and larger training systems, as well as deploying more and more inference compute.
Nathan Lambert
I think we need to make a point clear on why the time is now for people that don’t think about this, because essentially, with export controls, you’re making it so China cannot make or get cutting edge chips. And the idea is that if you time this wrong, China is pouring a ton of money into their chip production, and if you time it wrong, they are going to have more capacity for production, more capacity for energy, and figure out how to make the chips and have more capacity than the rest of the world to make the chips. Because everybody can buy… They’re going to sell their Chinese chips to everybody, they might subsidize them. And therefore, if AI takes a long time to become differentiated, we’ve kneecapped the financial performance of American companies. NVIDIA can sell less, TSMC cannot sell to China. So therefore, we have less demand to therefore… To keep driving the production cycle. So that’s the assumption behind the timing being [inaudible 01:22:43].
I think we need to make a point clear on why the time is now for people that don’t think about this, because essentially, with export controls, you’re making it so China cannot make or get cutting edge chips. And the idea is that if you time this wrong, China is pouring a ton of money into their chip production, and if you time it wrong, they are going to have more capacity for production, more capacity for energy, and figure out how to make the chips and have more capacity than the rest of the world to make the chips. Because everybody can buy… They’re going to sell their Chinese chips to everybody, they might subsidize them. And therefore, if AI takes a long time to become differentiated, we’ve kneecapped the financial performance of American companies. NVIDIA can sell less, TSMC cannot sell to China. So therefore, we have less demand to therefore… To keep driving the production cycle. So that’s the assumption behind the timing being [inaudible 01:22:43].
Dylan Patel
Less than 10 years or 5 years to above. China will win because of these restrictions long-term, unless AI does something in the short-term, which I believe AI will make massive changes to society in the medium, short-term. And so that’s the big unlocker there. And even today, if Xi Jinping decided to get “scale-pilled”, IE, decide that scaling laws are what matters, just like the US executives like Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and all these US executives of the biggest, most powerful tech companies have decided they’re scale-pilled and they’re building multi-gigawatt data centers, whether it’s in Texas or Louisiana or Wisconsin, wherever it is, they’re building these massive things that cost as much as their entire budget for spending on data centers globally in one spot. This is what they’ve committed to for next year, year after, et cetera. And so they’re so convinced that this is the way that this is what they’re doing.
Less than 10 years or 5 years to above. China will win because of these restrictions long-term, unless AI does something in the short-term, which I believe AI will make massive changes to society in the medium, short-term. And so that’s the big unlocker there. And even today, if Xi Jinping decided to get “scale-pilled”, IE, decide that scaling laws are what matters, just like the US executives like Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and all these US executives of the biggest, most powerful tech companies have decided they’re scale-pilled and they’re building multi-gigawatt data centers, whether it’s in Texas or Louisiana or Wisconsin, wherever it is, they’re building these massive things that cost as much as their entire budget for spending on data centers globally in one spot. This is what they’ve committed to for next year, year after, et cetera. And so they’re so convinced that this is the way that this is what they’re doing.
But if China decided to, they could do it faster than us, but this is where the restrictions come in. It is not clear that China as a whole has decided from the highest levels that this is a priority. The US sort of has. You see Trump talking about DeepSeek and Stargate within the same week. And the Biden admin as well had a lot of discussions about AI and such. It’s clear that they think about it. Only just last week did DeepSeek meet the second in command of China. They have not even met the top, they haven’t met Xi, Xi hasn’t set down, and they only just released a subsidy of a trillion RMB, roughly $160 billion, which is closer to the spending of Microsoft and Meta and Google combined for this year. So they’re realizing it just now. But that’s where these export restrictions come in and say, “Hey, you can’t ship the most powerful US chips to China. You can ship a cut-down version. You can’t ship the most powerful chips to all these countries who we know are just going to rent it to China. You have to limit the numbers.”
Nathan Lambert
And the tools.
And the tools.
Dylan Patel
And same with manufacturing [inaudible 01:24:52] tools, all these different aspects, but it all stems from AI and then what downstream can slow them down in AI. And so the entire semiconductor restrictions, you read them, they’re very clear, it’s about AI and military civil fusion of technology. It’s very clear. And then from there it goes, oh, well, we’re banning them from buying lithography tools and etch tools and deposition tools. And oh, this random subsystem from a random company that’s tiny. Why are we banning this? Because all of it, the US government has decided is critical to AI systems.
And same with manufacturing [inaudible 01:24:52] tools, all these different aspects, but it all stems from AI and then what downstream can slow them down in AI. And so the entire semiconductor restrictions, you read them, they’re very clear, it’s about AI and military civil fusion of technology. It’s very clear. And then from there it goes, oh, well, we’re banning them from buying lithography tools and etch tools and deposition tools. And oh, this random subsystem from a random company that’s tiny. Why are we banning this? Because all of it, the US government has decided is critical to AI systems.
Nathan Lambert
I think the fulcrum point is the transition from seven nanometer to five nanometer chips where I think it was Huawei that had the seven nanometer chip a few years ago, which caused another political brouhaha, almost like this moment. And then it’s the ASML deep UV. What is that… Extreme ultraviolet lithography.
I think the fulcrum point is the transition from seven nanometer to five nanometer chips where I think it was Huawei that had the seven nanometer chip a few years ago, which caused another political brouhaha, almost like this moment. And then it’s the ASML deep UV. What is that… Extreme ultraviolet lithography.
Dylan Patel
Just set context on the chips. What Nathan’s referring to is in 2020, Huawei released their Ascend 910 chip, which was an AI chip, first one on seven nanometer before Google did, before NVIDIA did. And they submitted it to the MLPerf benchmark, which is sort of a industry standard for machine learning performance benchmark, and it did quite well, and it was the best chip at the submission. This was a huge deal. The Trump admin, of course, banned, it was 2019, banned the Huawei from getting seven nanometer chips from TSMC. And so then they had to switch to using internal, domestically produced chips, which was a multi-year setback.
Just set context on the chips. What Nathan’s referring to is in 2020, Huawei released their Ascend 910 chip, which was an AI chip, first one on seven nanometer before Google did, before NVIDIA did. And they submitted it to the MLPerf benchmark, which is sort of a industry standard for machine learning performance benchmark, and it did quite well, and it was the best chip at the submission. This was a huge deal. The Trump admin, of course, banned, it was 2019, banned the Huawei from getting seven nanometer chips from TSMC. And so then they had to switch to using internal, domestically produced chips, which was a multi-year setback.
Nathan Lambert
Many companies have done seven nanometer chips. And the question is we don’t know how much Huawei was subsidizing production of that chip. Intel has made seven nanometer chips that are not profitable and things like this. So this is how it all feeds back into the economic engine of export controls.
Many companies have done seven nanometer chips. And the question is we don’t know how much Huawei was subsidizing production of that chip. Intel has made seven nanometer chips that are not profitable and things like this. So this is how it all feeds back into the economic engine of export controls.
Cold war with China
Lex Fridman
Well, so you’re saying that for now, Xi Jinping has not felt the AGI, but it feels like the DeepSeek moment, there might be meetings going on now where he’s going to start wearing the same t-shirt and things are going to escalate.
Well, so you’re saying that for now, Xi Jinping has not felt the AGI, but it feels like the DeepSeek moment, there might be meetings going on now where he’s going to start wearing the same t-shirt and things are going to escalate.
Dylan Patel
I mean, he may have woken up last week. Liang Feng met the second command guy, and they had a meeting, and then the next day, they announced the AI subsidies, which are a trillion RMB.
I mean, he may have woken up last week. Liang Feng met the second command guy, and they had a meeting, and then the next day, they announced the AI subsidies, which are a trillion RMB.
Lex Fridman
So it’s possible that this DeepSeek moment is truly the beginning of a cold war.
So it’s possible that this DeepSeek moment is truly the beginning of a cold war.
Nathan Lambert
That’s what a lot of people are worried about. People in AI have been worried that this is going towards a cold war or already is.
That’s what a lot of people are worried about. People in AI have been worried that this is going towards a cold war or already is.
Lex Fridman
But it’s not DeepSeek’s fault, but there’s something, a bunch of factors came together where-
But it’s not DeepSeek’s fault, but there’s something, a bunch of factors came together where-
Nathan Lambert
It’s how history works.
It’s how history works.
Lex Fridman
… it’s like this explosion. I mean, it all has to do with NVIDIA’s not going down properly, but it’s just some [inaudible 01:27:28] mass hysteria that happened that eventually led to Xi Jinping having meetings and waking up to this idea.
… it’s like this explosion. I mean, it all has to do with NVIDIA’s not going down properly, but it’s just some [inaudible 01:27:28] mass hysteria that happened that eventually led to Xi Jinping having meetings and waking up to this idea.
Dylan Patel
And the US government realized in October 7th, 2022, before ChatGPT released, that restriction on October 7th, which dropped and shocked everyone, and it was very clearly aimed at AI. Everyone was like, “What the heck are you doing?”
And the US government realized in October 7th, 2022, before ChatGPT released, that restriction on October 7th, which dropped and shocked everyone, and it was very clearly aimed at AI. Everyone was like, “What the heck are you doing?”
Nathan Lambert
Stable Diffusion was out then, but not ChatGPT.
Stable Diffusion was out then, but not ChatGPT.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, but not ChatGPT.
Yeah, but not ChatGPT.
Nathan Lambert
So it was starting to be rumblings-
So it was starting to be rumblings-
Dylan Patel
Of what GenAI can do to society, but it was very clear, I think, to at least National Security Council and those sort of folks, that this was where the world is headed, this cold war that’s happening.
Of what GenAI can do to society, but it was very clear, I think, to at least National Security Council and those sort of folks, that this was where the world is headed, this cold war that’s happening.
Lex Fridman
So is there any concerns that the export controls push China to take military action on Taiwan?
So is there any concerns that the export controls push China to take military action on Taiwan?
Dylan Patel
This is the big risk. The further you push China away from having access to cutting edge American and global technologies, the more likely they are to say, “Well, because I can’t access it, I might as well… No one should access it.” And there’s a few interesting aspects of that. China has a urban-rural divide like no other. They have a male-female birth ratio like no other to the point where if you look in most of China, it’s like the ratio is not that bad. But when you look at single dudes in rural China, it’s like a 30:1 ratio. And those are disenfranchised dudes. “The US has an incel problem.” China does too, it’s just they’re placated in some way or crushed down. What do you do with these people? And at the same time, you’re not allowed to access the most important technology, at least the US thinks so. China’s maybe starting to think this is the most important technology by starting to dump subsidies in it.
This is the big risk. The further you push China away from having access to cutting edge American and global technologies, the more likely they are to say, “Well, because I can’t access it, I might as well… No one should access it.” And there’s a few interesting aspects of that. China has a urban-rural divide like no other. They have a male-female birth ratio like no other to the point where if you look in most of China, it’s like the ratio is not that bad. But when you look at single dudes in rural China, it’s like a 30:1 ratio. And those are disenfranchised dudes. “The US has an incel problem.” China does too, it’s just they’re placated in some way or crushed down. What do you do with these people? And at the same time, you’re not allowed to access the most important technology, at least the US thinks so. China’s maybe starting to think this is the most important technology by starting to dump subsidies in it.
They thought EVs and renewables were the most important technology. They dominate that now. Now, they started thinking about semiconductors in the late 2010s and early 2020s and now they’ve been dumping money and they’re catching up rapidly and they’re going to do the same with AI because they’re very talented. So the question is, when does this hit a breaking point? And if China sees this as, “Hey, they can continue…” If not having access and starting a true hot war, taking over Taiwan or trying to subvert its democracy in some way or blockading it hurts the rest of the world far more than it hurts them, this is something they could potentially do. And so is this pushing them towards that? Potentially. I’m not quite a geopolitical person, but it’s obvious that the world regime of peace and trade is super awesome for economics, but at some point, it could break.
Nathan Lambert
I think we should comment the why Chinese economy would be hurt by that is that they’re export heavy, I think. United States buys so much. If that goes away, that’s how their economy [inaudible 01:30:17].
I think we should comment the why Chinese economy would be hurt by that is that they’re export heavy, I think. United States buys so much. If that goes away, that’s how their economy [inaudible 01:30:17].
Dylan Patel
Well, also, they just would not be able to import raw materials from all over the world. The US would just shut down the Strait of Malacca. And at the same time, the US entire… You could argue almost all the GDP growth in America since the ’70s has been either population growth or tech, because your life today is not that much better than someone from the ’80s outside of tech. Cars, they all have semiconductors in them everywhere. Fridges, semiconductors everywhere. There’s these funny stories about how Russians were taking apart laundry machines because they had certain Texas Instrument chips that they could then repurpose and put into their anti-missile missile things, like their S-400 or whatever. You would know more about this, but there’s all sorts of… Everything about semiconductors is so integral to every part of our lives.
Well, also, they just would not be able to import raw materials from all over the world. The US would just shut down the Strait of Malacca. And at the same time, the US entire… You could argue almost all the GDP growth in America since the ’70s has been either population growth or tech, because your life today is not that much better than someone from the ’80s outside of tech. Cars, they all have semiconductors in them everywhere. Fridges, semiconductors everywhere. There’s these funny stories about how Russians were taking apart laundry machines because they had certain Texas Instrument chips that they could then repurpose and put into their anti-missile missile things, like their S-400 or whatever. You would know more about this, but there’s all sorts of… Everything about semiconductors is so integral to every part of our lives.
TSMC and Taiwan
Lex Fridman
So can you explain the role of TSMC in the story of semiconductors and maybe also how the United States can break the reliance on TSMC?
So can you explain the role of TSMC in the story of semiconductors and maybe also how the United States can break the reliance on TSMC?
Dylan Patel
I don’t think it’s necessarily breaking the reliance. I think it’s getting TSMC to build in the US. So taking a step back, TSMC produces most of the world’s chips, especially on the foundry side. There’s a lot of companies that build their own chips. Samsung, Intel, STMicro, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, all these kinds of companies build their own chips, and XP, but more and more of these companies are outsourcing to TSMC and have been for multiple decades.
I don’t think it’s necessarily breaking the reliance. I think it’s getting TSMC to build in the US. So taking a step back, TSMC produces most of the world’s chips, especially on the foundry side. There’s a lot of companies that build their own chips. Samsung, Intel, STMicro, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, all these kinds of companies build their own chips, and XP, but more and more of these companies are outsourcing to TSMC and have been for multiple decades.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain the supply chain there and where most of TSMC is in terms of manufacturing?
Can you explain the supply chain there and where most of TSMC is in terms of manufacturing?
Dylan Patel
Sure. So historically, supply chain was companies would build their own chips. It would be a company started, they’d build their own chips, and then they’d design the chip and build the chip and sell it. Over time, this became really difficult because the cost of building a fab continues to compound every single generation. Of course, figuring out the technology for it is incredibly difficult regardless, but just the dollars and cents that are required, ignoring, saying, “Hey, yes, I have all the technical capability.” Which it’s really hard to get that by the way. Intel’s failing, Samsung’s failing, et cetera. But if you look at just the dollars to spend to build that next-generation fab, it keeps growing. Sort of Moore’s law is having the cost of chips every two years. There’s a separate law that’s sort of doubling the cost of fabs every handful of years.
Sure. So historically, supply chain was companies would build their own chips. It would be a company started, they’d build their own chips, and then they’d design the chip and build the chip and sell it. Over time, this became really difficult because the cost of building a fab continues to compound every single generation. Of course, figuring out the technology for it is incredibly difficult regardless, but just the dollars and cents that are required, ignoring, saying, “Hey, yes, I have all the technical capability.” Which it’s really hard to get that by the way. Intel’s failing, Samsung’s failing, et cetera. But if you look at just the dollars to spend to build that next-generation fab, it keeps growing. Sort of Moore’s law is having the cost of chips every two years. There’s a separate law that’s sort of doubling the cost of fabs every handful of years.
And so you look at a leading-edge fab that is going to be profitable today, that’s building three nanometer chips or two nanometer chips in the future, that’s going to cost north of 30, $40 billion. And that’s just for a token amount. That’s like the base building blocking. You probably need to build multiple. And so when you look at the industry over the last, if I go back 20, 30 years ago, there were 20, 30 companies that could build the most advanced chips, and then they would design them themselves and sell them. So companies like AMD would build their own chips. Intel, of course, still builds their own chips. They’re very famous for it. IBM would build their own chips. And you could just keep going down the list. All these companies built their own chips.
Slowly, they kept falling like flies, and that’s because of what TSMC did. They created the Foundry business model, which is, I’m not going to design any chips. I’m just going to contract manufacturer chips for other people. And one of their early customers is NVIDIA. NVIDIA is the only semiconductor company doing more than $1 billion of revenue that was started in the era of foundry. Every other company started before then, and at some point had fabs, which is actually incredible. Like AMD and Intel and Broadcom-
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 01:33:48].
[inaudible 01:33:48].
Dylan Patel
Everyone had fabs at some point, or some companies like Broadcom. It was like a merger amalgamation of various companies that rolled up. But even today, Broadcom has fabs. They build iPhone, RF radio chips in Colorado for Apple. All these companies had fabs, and for most of the fabs, they threw them away or sold them off, or they got rolled into something else. And now, everyone relies on TSMC. Including Intel, their latest PC chip uses TSMC chips. It also uses some Intel chips, but it uses TSMC process.
Everyone had fabs at some point, or some companies like Broadcom. It was like a merger amalgamation of various companies that rolled up. But even today, Broadcom has fabs. They build iPhone, RF radio chips in Colorado for Apple. All these companies had fabs, and for most of the fabs, they threw them away or sold them off, or they got rolled into something else. And now, everyone relies on TSMC. Including Intel, their latest PC chip uses TSMC chips. It also uses some Intel chips, but it uses TSMC process.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain why the foundry model is so successful for these companies? Why are they going with-
Can you explain why the foundry model is so successful for these companies? Why are they going with-
Nathan Lambert
Economies of scale.
Economies of scale.
Lex Fridman
Scale?
Scale?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. So I mean, like I mentioned, the cost of building a fab is so high, the R&D is so difficult. And when you look at these companies that had their own vertical stack, there was an antiquated process of like, okay, I’m so hyper customized to each specific chip, but as we’ve gone through the history of the last 50 years of electronics and semiconductors, A, you need more and more specialization because Moore’s law has died, Dennard Scaling has died, IE, Chips are not getting better just for free from manufacturing. You have to make real architectural innovations.
Yeah. So I mean, like I mentioned, the cost of building a fab is so high, the R&D is so difficult. And when you look at these companies that had their own vertical stack, there was an antiquated process of like, okay, I’m so hyper customized to each specific chip, but as we’ve gone through the history of the last 50 years of electronics and semiconductors, A, you need more and more specialization because Moore’s law has died, Dennard Scaling has died, IE, Chips are not getting better just for free from manufacturing. You have to make real architectural innovations.
Google is not just running on Intel CPUs for web serving. They have a YouTube chip, they have TPUs, they have Pixel chips, they have a wide diversity of chips that generate all the economic value of Google. It’s running all the services and stuff. And this is just Google. And you could go across any company in the industry, and it’s like this. Cars contain 5,000 chips, 200 different varieties of them. All these random things. A Tesla door handle has two chips. It’s ridiculous. And it’s a cool door handle. You don’t think about it, but it has two really chip, penny chips in there. Anyways, so as you have more diversity of chips, as you have more specialization required and the cost of fabs continues to grow, you need someone who is laser focused on building the best process technology and making it as flexible as possible.
Nathan Lambert
I think you could say it simply, which is the cost per fab goes up, and if you are a small player that makes a few types of chips, you’re not going to have the demand to pay back the cost of the fab. Whereas NVIDIA can have many different customers and aggregate all this demand into one place, and then they’re the only person that makes enough money building chips to build the next fab. So this is kind of why the companies slowly get killed because they have, 10 years ago, a chip that is profitable and is good enough, but the cost to build the next one goes up. They may try to do this, fail because they don’t have the money to make it work, and then they don’t have any chips, or they build it and it’s too expensive and they just sort of have not profitable chips.
I think you could say it simply, which is the cost per fab goes up, and if you are a small player that makes a few types of chips, you’re not going to have the demand to pay back the cost of the fab. Whereas NVIDIA can have many different customers and aggregate all this demand into one place, and then they’re the only person that makes enough money building chips to build the next fab. So this is kind of why the companies slowly get killed because they have, 10 years ago, a chip that is profitable and is good enough, but the cost to build the next one goes up. They may try to do this, fail because they don’t have the money to make it work, and then they don’t have any chips, or they build it and it’s too expensive and they just sort of have not profitable chips.
Dylan Patel
There’s more failure points. You could have one little process related to some sort of chemical etch or some sort of plasma etch or some little process that screws up, you didn’t engineer it right, and now the whole company falls apart, you can’t make chips. And so super, super powerful companies like Intel, they had the weathering storm to like, hey, they still exist today, even though they really screwed up their manufacturing six, seven years ago. But in the case of like AMD, they almost went bankrupt, they had to sell their fabs to Mubadala, UAE, and that became a separate company called Global Foundries, which is a foundry firm. And then AMD was able to then focus on the return back up, was like, “Hey, let’s focus on making chiplets and a bunch of different chips for different markets and focusing on specific workloads rather than all of these different things.”
There’s more failure points. You could have one little process related to some sort of chemical etch or some sort of plasma etch or some little process that screws up, you didn’t engineer it right, and now the whole company falls apart, you can’t make chips. And so super, super powerful companies like Intel, they had the weathering storm to like, hey, they still exist today, even though they really screwed up their manufacturing six, seven years ago. But in the case of like AMD, they almost went bankrupt, they had to sell their fabs to Mubadala, UAE, and that became a separate company called Global Foundries, which is a foundry firm. And then AMD was able to then focus on the return back up, was like, “Hey, let’s focus on making chiplets and a bunch of different chips for different markets and focusing on specific workloads rather than all of these different things.”
And so you get more diversity of chips, you have more companies than ever designing chips, but you have fewer companies than ever manufacturing them. And this is where TSMC comes in, is they’ve just been the best. They are so good at it. They’re customer focused, they make it easy for you to fabricate your chips. They take all of that complexity and kind of try and abstract a lot of it away from you. They make good money. They don’t make insane money, but they make good money and they’re able to aggregate all this demand and continue to build the next fab, the next fab, the next fab.
Lex Fridman
So why is Taiwan so special for TSMC? Why is it happening there? Can it be replicated inside the United States?
So why is Taiwan so special for TSMC? Why is it happening there? Can it be replicated inside the United States?
Dylan Patel
Yeah, so there’s aspects of it that I would say yes, and aspects that I’d say no. TSMC is way ahead because former executive Morris Chang of Texas Instruments wasn’t promoted to CEO. And he was like, “Screw this. I’m going to go make my own chip company.” And he went to Taiwan and made TSMC. And there’s a whole lot more story there. Texas Instruments, could have have been TSMC, but Texas Semiconductor Manufacturing instead of Texas Instruments. So there is that whole story there. But the-
Yeah, so there’s aspects of it that I would say yes, and aspects that I’d say no. TSMC is way ahead because former executive Morris Chang of Texas Instruments wasn’t promoted to CEO. And he was like, “Screw this. I’m going to go make my own chip company.” And he went to Taiwan and made TSMC. And there’s a whole lot more story there. Texas Instruments, could have have been TSMC, but Texas Semiconductor Manufacturing instead of Texas Instruments. So there is that whole story there. But the-
Nathan Lambert
Sitting here in Texas.
Sitting here in Texas.
Lex Fridman
And that sounds like a human story. He didn’t get promoted.
And that sounds like a human story. He didn’t get promoted.
Dylan Patel
Just the brilliance of Morris Chang, which I wouldn’t underplay, but there’s also a different level of how this works. So in Taiwan, the top percent of graduates of students that go to the best school, which is NTU, the top percent of those all go work to TSMC. And guess what their pay is? Their starting pay is like $80,000, $70,000, which is like that’s starting pay for a good graduate in the US, not the top. The graduates are making hundreds of thousands of dollars at the Googles and the Amazons, and now I guess the OpenAIs of the world. So there is a large dichotomy of what is the top 1% of the society doing and where are they headed because of economic reasons? Intel never paid that crazy good. And it didn’t make sense to them. That’s one aspect. Where’s the best going?
Just the brilliance of Morris Chang, which I wouldn’t underplay, but there’s also a different level of how this works. So in Taiwan, the top percent of graduates of students that go to the best school, which is NTU, the top percent of those all go work to TSMC. And guess what their pay is? Their starting pay is like $80,000, $70,000, which is like that’s starting pay for a good graduate in the US, not the top. The graduates are making hundreds of thousands of dollars at the Googles and the Amazons, and now I guess the OpenAIs of the world. So there is a large dichotomy of what is the top 1% of the society doing and where are they headed because of economic reasons? Intel never paid that crazy good. And it didn’t make sense to them. That’s one aspect. Where’s the best going?
Second is the work ethic. We like to work. You work a lot, we work a lot, but at the end of the day, what does the time and amount of work that you’re doing and what does a fab require? Fabs are not work from home jobs. They are you go into the fab and grueling work. There’s hey, if there is any amount of vibration, an earthquake happens, vibrates the machines, they’re either broken, you’ve scrapped some of your production. And then in many cases, they’re not calibrated properly. So when there’s an earthquake, recently, there’s been a earthquake, TSMC doesn’t call their employees, they just go to the fab and they just show up. The parking lot gets slammed, and people just go into the fab and fix it. It’s like ants. It’s like a hive of ants doesn’t get told by the queen what to do. The ants just know.
Nathan Lambert
It’s like one person just specializes on these one task, and it’s like you’re going to take this one tool and you’re the best person in the world, and this is what you’re going to do for your whole life is this one task in the fab.
It’s like one person just specializes on these one task, and it’s like you’re going to take this one tool and you’re the best person in the world, and this is what you’re going to do for your whole life is this one task in the fab.
Dylan Patel
Which is some special chemistry plus nanomanufacturing on one line of tools that continues to get iterated and yeah, it’s like a specific plasma etch for removing silicon dioxide. That’s all you focus on your whole career, and it’s such a specialized thing. And so it’s not like the tasks are transferable. AI today is awesome because people can pick it up like that. Semiconductor manufacturing is very antiquated and difficult. None of the materials are online for people to read easily and learn. The papers are very dense, and it takes a lot of experience to learn. And so it makes the barrier to entry much higher too. So when you talk about, hey, you have all these people that are super specialized, they will work 80 hours a week in a factory, in a fab, and if anything goes wrong, they’ll go show up in the middle of the night because some earthquake, their wife’s like, “There was an earthquake.” He’s like, “Great, I’m going to go to the fab.”
Which is some special chemistry plus nanomanufacturing on one line of tools that continues to get iterated and yeah, it’s like a specific plasma etch for removing silicon dioxide. That’s all you focus on your whole career, and it’s such a specialized thing. And so it’s not like the tasks are transferable. AI today is awesome because people can pick it up like that. Semiconductor manufacturing is very antiquated and difficult. None of the materials are online for people to read easily and learn. The papers are very dense, and it takes a lot of experience to learn. And so it makes the barrier to entry much higher too. So when you talk about, hey, you have all these people that are super specialized, they will work 80 hours a week in a factory, in a fab, and if anything goes wrong, they’ll go show up in the middle of the night because some earthquake, their wife’s like, “There was an earthquake.” He’s like, “Great, I’m going to go to the fab.”
Nathan Lambert
Time to cry.
Time to cry.
Dylan Patel
Would you, as an American, do that? It’s like these sorts of things are, I guess are the exemplifying why TSMC is so amazing. Now, can you replicate it in the US? Let’s not ignore Intel was the leader in manufacturing for over 20 years. They brought every technology to market first besides the EUV. Strained silicon, high-K metal gates, FinFET, the list goes on and on and on of technologies that Intel brought to market first made the most money from and manufactured at scale first, best, highest profit margins. We shouldn’t ignore that Intel can’t do this. It’s that the culture has broken.
Would you, as an American, do that? It’s like these sorts of things are, I guess are the exemplifying why TSMC is so amazing. Now, can you replicate it in the US? Let’s not ignore Intel was the leader in manufacturing for over 20 years. They brought every technology to market first besides the EUV. Strained silicon, high-K metal gates, FinFET, the list goes on and on and on of technologies that Intel brought to market first made the most money from and manufactured at scale first, best, highest profit margins. We shouldn’t ignore that Intel can’t do this. It’s that the culture has broken.
You’ve invested in the wrong things. They said no to the iPhone. They had all these different things regarding mismanagement of the fabs and mismanagement of designs, this lockup. And at the same time, all these brilliant people, these 50,000 PhDs or masters that have been working on specific chemical or physical processes or nanomanufacturing processes for decades, in Oregon, they’re still there, they’re still producing amazing work. It’s just getting it to the last mile of production at high yield where you can manufacture dozens and hundreds of different kinds of chips, and good customer experience has broken.
It’s that customer experience. Part of it is people will say, Intel was too pompous in the 2000s, 2010s. They just thought they were better than everyone. The tool guys were like, “Oh, I don’t think that this is mature enough.” And they’re like, “Ah, you just don’t know. We know.” This sort of stuff would happen. And so can the US bring leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing to the US? [inaudible 01:42:44] yes. And we are. It’s happening.
Nathan Lambert
Arizona is getting better and better as time goes on.
Arizona is getting better and better as time goes on.
Dylan Patel
TSMC has built roughly 20% of their capacity for five nanometer in the US. Now, this is nowhere near enough. 20% of capacity in the US is like nothing. And furthermore, this is still dependent on Taiwan existing. There’s sort of important way to separate it out. There’s R&D and there’s high volume manufacturing. Effectively, there are three places in the world that are doing leading-edge R&D. There’s Hsinchu, Taiwan, there’s Hillsboro, Oregon, and there is Pyongyang, South Korea.
TSMC has built roughly 20% of their capacity for five nanometer in the US. Now, this is nowhere near enough. 20% of capacity in the US is like nothing. And furthermore, this is still dependent on Taiwan existing. There’s sort of important way to separate it out. There’s R&D and there’s high volume manufacturing. Effectively, there are three places in the world that are doing leading-edge R&D. There’s Hsinchu, Taiwan, there’s Hillsboro, Oregon, and there is Pyongyang, South Korea.
These three places are doing the leading-edge R&D for the rest of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors. Now, manufacturing can be distributed more globally. And this is sort of where this dichotomy exists of who’s actually modifying the process, who’s actually developing the next generation one, who’s improving them is Hsinchu, is Hillsboro, is Pyongyang. It is not the rest of these fabs like Arizona. Arizona is a paperweight. If Hsinchu disappeared off the face of the planet, within a year, couple years, Arizona would stop producing too. It’s actually pretty critical. One of the things I like to say is if I had a few missiles, I know exactly where I could cause the most economic damage. It’s not targeting the White House.
Lex Fridman
It’s the R&D centers.
It’s the R&D centers.
Dylan Patel
It’s the R&D centers for TSMC, Intel, Samsung. And then some of the memory guys, Micron and Hynix.
It’s the R&D centers for TSMC, Intel, Samsung. And then some of the memory guys, Micron and Hynix.
Lex Fridman
Because they define the future evolution of these semiconductors, and everything’s moving so rapidly that it really is fundamentally about R&D. And it is all about TSMC. Huh.
Because they define the future evolution of these semiconductors, and everything’s moving so rapidly that it really is fundamentally about R&D. And it is all about TSMC. Huh.
Dylan Patel
And so TSMC, you cannot purchase a vehicle without TSMC chips. You cannot purchase a fridge without TSMC chips. I think one of the few things you can purchase ironically, is a Texas Instruments graphing calculator because they actually manufacture in Texas. But outside of that, a laptop, a phone.
And so TSMC, you cannot purchase a vehicle without TSMC chips. You cannot purchase a fridge without TSMC chips. I think one of the few things you can purchase ironically, is a Texas Instruments graphing calculator because they actually manufacture in Texas. But outside of that, a laptop, a phone.
Lex Fridman
It’s depressing.
It’s depressing.
Dylan Patel
Servers, GPUs, none of this stuff can exist. And this is without TSMC. And in many cases, it’s not even the leading-edge sexy five nanometer chip, three nanometer chip, two nanometer chip. Oftentimes, it’s just some stupid power IC that’s converting from some voltage to another, and it’s…
Servers, GPUs, none of this stuff can exist. And this is without TSMC. And in many cases, it’s not even the leading-edge sexy five nanometer chip, three nanometer chip, two nanometer chip. Oftentimes, it’s just some stupid power IC that’s converting from some voltage to another, and it’s…
Dylan Patel
… I see that’s converting from some voltage to another, and it’s made at TSMC. It’s like-
… I see that’s converting from some voltage to another, and it’s made at TSMC. It’s like-
Nathan Lambert
This is what China is investing in as well. It’s like, they can build out this long-tail fab where the techniques are much more known, you don’t have to figure out these problems with EUV. They’re investing in this and then they have large supply for things like the car door handles and the random stuff. And that trickles down into this whole economic discussion as well, which is they have far more than we do. And having supply for things like this is crucial to normal life.
This is what China is investing in as well. It’s like, they can build out this long-tail fab where the techniques are much more known, you don’t have to figure out these problems with EUV. They’re investing in this and then they have large supply for things like the car door handles and the random stuff. And that trickles down into this whole economic discussion as well, which is they have far more than we do. And having supply for things like this is crucial to normal life.
Lex Fridman
So they’re starting to invest in high-volume manufacturer, but they’re not doing R&D as much?
So they’re starting to invest in high-volume manufacturer, but they’re not doing R&D as much?
Nathan Lambert
They are.
They are.
Dylan Patel
They do R&D on their own, they’re just way behind. I would say, in 2015 China had a five-year plan where they defined by 2025 and 2020 certain goals, including 80% domestic production of semiconductors. They’re not going to hit that, to be clear. But they are in certain areas really, really close. BYD is probably going to be the first company in the world to not have to use TSMC for making … because they have their own fabs for making chips.
They do R&D on their own, they’re just way behind. I would say, in 2015 China had a five-year plan where they defined by 2025 and 2020 certain goals, including 80% domestic production of semiconductors. They’re not going to hit that, to be clear. But they are in certain areas really, really close. BYD is probably going to be the first company in the world to not have to use TSMC for making … because they have their own fabs for making chips.
Now they still have to buy some chips from foreign, for example, around like self-driving ADAS capabilities because those are really high-end, but at least … A internal combustion engine has 40 chips in an EV, just for controlling flow rates and all these things, and EVs are even more complicated. So all these different power ICs and battery management controllers and all these things, they’re insourcing.
And this is something that China has been doing since 2015. Now, as far as the trailing edge, they’re getting so much capacity there. As far as the leading edge, i.e. this five nanometer and so on and so forth, where GPUs, they are still behind. The US restrictions are trying to stop them in the latter, but all that’s happened is yes, they’ve slowed down their five nanometer, three nanometer, et cetera, but they’ve accelerated their, hey, 45 nanometer, 90 nanometer power IC or analog IC or random chip in my keyboard, that kind of stuff.
So there is an angle of, the US’ actions, from the angle of the expert controls, have been so inflammatory at slowing down China’s progress on the leading edge that they’ve turned around and have accelerated their progress elsewhere because they know that this is so important. If the US is going to lock them out here, “what if they lock us out here as well in the trailing edge?”
And so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it’s going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.
Lex Fridman
Is some of it also culture, like you said, extreme competence, extreme work ethic in Taiwan?
Is some of it also culture, like you said, extreme competence, extreme work ethic in Taiwan?
Nathan Lambert
I think if you have the demand and the money is on the line, the American companies figure it out. It’s going to take handholding with the government, but I think that the culture helps TSMC break through and it’s easier for them. You [inaudible 01:47:50].
I think if you have the demand and the money is on the line, the American companies figure it out. It’s going to take handholding with the government, but I think that the culture helps TSMC break through and it’s easier for them. You [inaudible 01:47:50].
Dylan Patel
TSMC has some like 90,000 employees. It’s not actually that insane amount. The Arizona fab has 3,000 from Taiwan. And these people, their wives were like, “Yeah, we’re not going to have kids unless you sign up for the Arizona Fab. We go to Arizona and we have our kids there.” There’s also a Japan fab where the same thing happened. And so these wives drove these dudes to go to Japan or America to have the kids there.
TSMC has some like 90,000 employees. It’s not actually that insane amount. The Arizona fab has 3,000 from Taiwan. And these people, their wives were like, “Yeah, we’re not going to have kids unless you sign up for the Arizona Fab. We go to Arizona and we have our kids there.” There’s also a Japan fab where the same thing happened. And so these wives drove these dudes to go to Japan or America to have the kids there.
And it’s an element of culture, yeah, sure. Taiwan works that hard. But also, like the US has done it in the past, they could do it now. We can just import, I say import, the best people in the world if we want to.
Lex Fridman
That’s where the immigration conversation is a tricky one and there’s been a lot of debate over that. But yeah, it seems absurdly controversial to import the best people in the world. I don’t understand why it’s controversial. That’s one of the ways of winning.
That’s where the immigration conversation is a tricky one and there’s been a lot of debate over that. But yeah, it seems absurdly controversial to import the best people in the world. I don’t understand why it’s controversial. That’s one of the ways of winning.
Nathan Lambert
I’m sure we agree with you.
I’m sure we agree with you.
Dylan Patel
And even if you can’t import those people, I still think you could do a lot to manufacture most of it in the US, if the money’s there.
And even if you can’t import those people, I still think you could do a lot to manufacture most of it in the US, if the money’s there.
Nathan Lambert
It’s just way more expensive. It’s not profitable for a long time.
It’s just way more expensive. It’s not profitable for a long time.
Dylan Patel
And that’s the context of the Chips Act is only $50 billion, relative to some of the renewable initiatives that were passed in the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act, which total in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And so the amount of money that the US is spending on the semiconductor industry is nothing, whereas all these other countries have structural advantages in terms of work ethic and amount of work and things like that, but also a number of STEM graduates, the percentile of their best going to that.
And that’s the context of the Chips Act is only $50 billion, relative to some of the renewable initiatives that were passed in the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act, which total in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And so the amount of money that the US is spending on the semiconductor industry is nothing, whereas all these other countries have structural advantages in terms of work ethic and amount of work and things like that, but also a number of STEM graduates, the percentile of their best going to that.
But they also have differences in terms of, hey, there’s just tax benefits in the law and have been in the law for 20 years. And then some countries have massive subsidies. China has something like $200 billion of semiconductor subsidies a year. We’re talking about $50 billion in the US over like six. So the girth or difference in the subsidy amounts is also huge.
And so I think Trump has been talking about tariffing Taiwan recently. That’s one of these things that’s like, “Oh, okay, well, maybe he doesn’t want to subsidize the US semiconductor industry.” Obviously tariffing Taiwan is going to cost a lot of things to get much more expensive, but does it change the equation for TSMC building more fabs in the US? That’s what he’s positing.
Lex Fridman
So we laid out the importance … By the way, it’s incredible how much you know about so much.
So we laid out the importance … By the way, it’s incredible how much you know about so much.
Nathan Lambert
We told you Dylan knows all this stuff.
We told you Dylan knows all this stuff.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Okay. You laid out why TSMC is really important. If we look out into the future 10, 20 years out, US-China relationship, it seems like it can go to a dark place of Cold War, escalated Cold War, even hot war, or to a good place of anything from frenemies, to cooperation, to working together.
Yeah. Okay. You laid out why TSMC is really important. If we look out into the future 10, 20 years out, US-China relationship, it seems like it can go to a dark place of Cold War, escalated Cold War, even hot war, or to a good place of anything from frenemies, to cooperation, to working together.
So in this game theory, complicated game, what are the different trajectories? What should US be doing? What do you see as the different possible trajectories of US-China relations as both leaders start to feel the AGI more and more and see the importance of chips and the importance of AI.
Nathan Lambert
I mean, ultimately the export controls are pointing towards a separate future economy. I think the US has made it clear to Chinese leaders that we intend to control this technology at whatever cost to global economic integration. And it’s hard to unwind that. The card has been played.
I mean, ultimately the export controls are pointing towards a separate future economy. I think the US has made it clear to Chinese leaders that we intend to control this technology at whatever cost to global economic integration. And it’s hard to unwind that. The card has been played.
Dylan Patel
To the same extent they’ve also limited US companies from entering China. So it’s been a long time coming. At some point there was a convergence, but over at least the last decade it’s been branching further and further out. US companies can’t enter China. Chinese companies can’t enter the US. The US is saying, “Hey, China, you can’t get access to our technologies in certain areas.” And China’s rebuttaling with the same thing around … they’ve done some sort of specific materials in gallium and things like that that they’ve tried to limit the US on. There’s a US drone company that’s not allowed to buy batteries and they have military customers. And this drone company just tells the military customers, “Hey, just get it from Amazon because I can’t actually physically get them.”
To the same extent they’ve also limited US companies from entering China. So it’s been a long time coming. At some point there was a convergence, but over at least the last decade it’s been branching further and further out. US companies can’t enter China. Chinese companies can’t enter the US. The US is saying, “Hey, China, you can’t get access to our technologies in certain areas.” And China’s rebuttaling with the same thing around … they’ve done some sort of specific materials in gallium and things like that that they’ve tried to limit the US on. There’s a US drone company that’s not allowed to buy batteries and they have military customers. And this drone company just tells the military customers, “Hey, just get it from Amazon because I can’t actually physically get them.”
There’s all these things that are happening that point to further and further divergence. I have zero idea, and I would love if we could all hold hands and sing Kumbaya, but I have zero idea how that could possibly happen.
Lex Fridman
Is the divergence good or bad for avoiding war? Is it possible that the divergence in terms of manufacturer chips of training AI systems is actually good for avoiding military conflict?
Is the divergence good or bad for avoiding war? Is it possible that the divergence in terms of manufacturer chips of training AI systems is actually good for avoiding military conflict?
Dylan Patel
It’s an objective fact that the world has been the most peaceful it’s ever been when there are global hegemons, or regional hegemons in historical context. The Mediterranean was the most peaceful ever when the Romans were there. China had very peaceful and warring times, and the peaceful times were when dynasties had a lock hold over, not just themselves, but all their tributaries around them. And likewise, the most peaceful time in human history has been when the US was the global hegemon, the last decades. Now we’ve seen things start to slide with Russia, Ukraine, with what’s going on in the Middle East, and Taiwan risk, all these different things are starting to bubble up. Still objectively extremely peaceful.
It’s an objective fact that the world has been the most peaceful it’s ever been when there are global hegemons, or regional hegemons in historical context. The Mediterranean was the most peaceful ever when the Romans were there. China had very peaceful and warring times, and the peaceful times were when dynasties had a lock hold over, not just themselves, but all their tributaries around them. And likewise, the most peaceful time in human history has been when the US was the global hegemon, the last decades. Now we’ve seen things start to slide with Russia, Ukraine, with what’s going on in the Middle East, and Taiwan risk, all these different things are starting to bubble up. Still objectively extremely peaceful.
Now what happens when it’s not one global hegemon but it’s two, obviously … And China will be competitive or even overtake the US, it’s possible. And so this change in global hegemony, I don’t think it ever happens super peacefully. When empires fall, which is a possible trajectory for America, they don’t fall gracefully. They don’t just slide out of irrelevance. Usually there’s a lot of shaking. And so what the US is trying to do is maintain its top position, and what China is trying to do is become the top position. And obviously there’s butting of heads here, in the most simple terms.
Lex Fridman
And that could take shape in all kinds of ways, including proxy wars. And now-
And that could take shape in all kinds of ways, including proxy wars. And now-
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, it seems like it’s already happening. As much as I want there to be centuries of prolonged peace, it looks like further instability internationally is ahead.
Yeah, it seems like it’s already happening. As much as I want there to be centuries of prolonged peace, it looks like further instability internationally is ahead.
Dylan Patel
And the US’ current task is, “Hey, if we control AI, if we’re the leader in AI and AI significantly accelerates progress, then we can maintain the global hegemony position.” And therefore-
And the US’ current task is, “Hey, if we control AI, if we’re the leader in AI and AI significantly accelerates progress, then we can maintain the global hegemony position.” And therefore-
Nathan Lambert
I hope that works.
I hope that works.
Dylan Patel
And as an American, like, okay, I guess that’s going to lead to peace for us. Now obviously other people around the world get affected negatively. Obviously the Chinese people are not going to be in as advantageous of a position if that happens, but this is the reality of what’s being done and the actions that are being carried out.
And as an American, like, okay, I guess that’s going to lead to peace for us. Now obviously other people around the world get affected negatively. Obviously the Chinese people are not going to be in as advantageous of a position if that happens, but this is the reality of what’s being done and the actions that are being carried out.
Best GPUs for AI
Lex Fridman
Can we go back to the specific detail of the different hardware? There’s this nice graphic in the export controls of which GPUs are allowed to be exported and which are not. Can you explain the difference? From a technical perspective, are the H20s promising?
Can we go back to the specific detail of the different hardware? There’s this nice graphic in the export controls of which GPUs are allowed to be exported and which are not. Can you explain the difference? From a technical perspective, are the H20s promising?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. And I think we need to dive really deep into the reasoning aspect and what’s going on there. The US has gone through multiple iterations of the export controls. This H800 was at one point allowed back in ’23, but then it got canceled and by then DeepSeek had already built their cluster of, they claim, 2K. I think they actually have many more, something like 10K of those. And now this H20 is the legally allowed chip. Nvidia shipped a million of these last year to China. For context, it was four or five million GPUs. So the percentage of GPUs that were this China-specific H20 is quite high, roughly 20%, 25%, 20% or so.
Yeah. And I think we need to dive really deep into the reasoning aspect and what’s going on there. The US has gone through multiple iterations of the export controls. This H800 was at one point allowed back in ’23, but then it got canceled and by then DeepSeek had already built their cluster of, they claim, 2K. I think they actually have many more, something like 10K of those. And now this H20 is the legally allowed chip. Nvidia shipped a million of these last year to China. For context, it was four or five million GPUs. So the percentage of GPUs that were this China-specific H20 is quite high, roughly 20%, 25%, 20% or so.
And so this H20 has been neutered in one way, but it’s actually upgraded in other ways. And you could think of chips along three axes for AI, ignoring software stack and exact architecture, just raw specifications. There’s floating point operations, FLOPS. There is memory bandwidth, i.e. in-memory capacity, IO memory. And then there is interconnect, chip-to-chip interconnections. All three of these are incredibly important for making AI systems. Because AI systems involve a lot of compute, they involve a lot of moving memory around, whether it be to memory or too other chips.
And so these three vectors, the US initially had two of these vectors controlled and one of them not controlled, which was FLOPS and interconnect bandwidth were initially controlled. And then they said, “No, no, no, no. We’re going to remove the interconnect bandwidth and just make it a very simple, only FLOPS.” But now Nvidia can now make a chip that has … okay, it’s cut down on FLOPS, so one-third that of the H100 on spec sheet paper performance for FLOPs. In real world it’s closer to half or maybe even 60% of it. But then on the other two vectors, it’s just as good for interconnect bandwidth. And then for memory bandwidth and memory capacity, the H20 has more memory bandwidth and more memory capacity than the H100.
Now recently we, at our research, we cut Nvidia’s production for H20 for this year down drastically. They were going to make another two million of those this year, but they just canceled all the orders a couple of weeks ago. In our view that’s because we think that they think they’re going to get restricted, because why would they cancel all these orders for H20? Because they shipped a million of them last year, they had orders in for a couple million this year, and just gone right. For H20, B20, a successor to H20, and now they’re all gone.
Now why would they do this? I think it’s very clear, the H20 is actually better for certain tasks. And that certain task is reasoning. Reasoning is incredibly different than … When you look at the different regimes of models. Pre-training is all about FLOPS, it’s all about FLOPS. There’s things you do, like Mixture of Experts that we talked about, to trade off interconnect or to trade off other aspects and lower the FLOPS and rely more on interconnect and memory.
But at the end of the day, FLOPS is everything. We talk about models in terms of how many FLOPS they are. So we talk about, oh, GPT-4 is 2e25. Two to the 25th, 25 zeros FLOP, floating point operations for training. And we’re talking about the restrictions for the 2e24, or 25, whatever. The US has an executive order that Trump recently unsigned, which was, hey, 1e26, once you hit that number of floating point operations, you must notify the government and you must share your results with us. There’s a level of model where the US government must be told, and that’s 1e26.
And so as we move forward, this is an incredibly important … FLOP is the vector that the government has cared about historically, but the other two vectors are arguably just as important. And especially when we come to this new paradigm, which the world is only just learning about over the last six months: reasoning.
Lex Fridman
And do we understand firmly which of the three dimensions is best for reasoning? So interconnect, the FLOPS don’t matter as much, is it memory?
And do we understand firmly which of the three dimensions is best for reasoning? So interconnect, the FLOPS don’t matter as much, is it memory?
Nathan Lambert
Memory. Yeah. We’re going to get into technical stuff real fast.
Memory. Yeah. We’re going to get into technical stuff real fast.
Dylan Patel
I would say there’s two articles in this one that I could show maybe graphics that might be interesting for you to pull up.
I would say there’s two articles in this one that I could show maybe graphics that might be interesting for you to pull up.
Lex Fridman
For the listeners, we’re looking at the section of 01 inference architectures tokenomics.
For the listeners, we’re looking at the section of 01 inference architectures tokenomics.
Dylan Patel
You want to explain KV cache before we talk about this? I think it’s better to-
You want to explain KV cache before we talk about this? I think it’s better to-
Nathan Lambert
Okay. Yeah, we need to go through a lot of specific technical things, transformers, to make this easy for people.
Okay. Yeah, we need to go through a lot of specific technical things, transformers, to make this easy for people.
Dylan Patel
Because it’s incredibly important because this changes how models work. But I think resetting, why is memory so important? It’s because so far we’ve talked about parameter counts and Mixture of Experts, you can change how many active parameters versus total parameters to embed more data but have less FLOPS. B. Ut more important, another aspect of what’s part of this humongous revolution in the last handful of years is the transformer and the attention mechanism. Attention mechanism is that the model understands the relationships between all the words in its context, and that is separate from the parameters themselves. And that is something that you must calculate. How each token, each word in the context length, is relatively connected to each other. And I think, Nathan, you can explain KV cache better.
Because it’s incredibly important because this changes how models work. But I think resetting, why is memory so important? It’s because so far we’ve talked about parameter counts and Mixture of Experts, you can change how many active parameters versus total parameters to embed more data but have less FLOPS. B. Ut more important, another aspect of what’s part of this humongous revolution in the last handful of years is the transformer and the attention mechanism. Attention mechanism is that the model understands the relationships between all the words in its context, and that is separate from the parameters themselves. And that is something that you must calculate. How each token, each word in the context length, is relatively connected to each other. And I think, Nathan, you can explain KV cache better.
Lex Fridman
KV cache is one of the optimization [inaudible 02:00:33]?
KV cache is one of the optimization [inaudible 02:00:33]?
Nathan Lambert
So the attention operator has three core things, it’s queries, keys, and values. QKV is the thing that goes into this. You’ll look at the equation. You see that these matrices are multiplied together. These words, query, key and value, come from information retrieval backgrounds where the query is the thing you’re trying to get the values for and you access the keys and the values is reweighting. My background’s not information retrieval and things like this, it’s just fun to have backlinks.
So the attention operator has three core things, it’s queries, keys, and values. QKV is the thing that goes into this. You’ll look at the equation. You see that these matrices are multiplied together. These words, query, key and value, come from information retrieval backgrounds where the query is the thing you’re trying to get the values for and you access the keys and the values is reweighting. My background’s not information retrieval and things like this, it’s just fun to have backlinks.
And what effectively happens is that when you’re doing these matrix multiplications, you’re having matrices that are of the size of the context length, so the number of tokens that you put into the model. And the KV cache is effectively some form of compressed representation of all the previous tokens in the model. So when you’re doing this, we talk about autoregressive models, you predict one token at a time. You start with whatever your prompt was, you ask a question, like who was the president in 1825. The model then is going to generate its first token.
For each of these tokens you’re doing the same attention operator where you’re multiplying these query, key-value matrices. But the math is very nice so that when you’re doing this repeatedly, this KV cache, this key-value operation, you can keep appending the new values to it, so you keep track of what your previous values you were inferring over in this autoregressive chain, you keep it in-memory the whole time. And this is a really crucial thing to manage when serving inference at scale. There are far bigger experts in this and there are so many levels of detail that you can go into.
Essentially one of the key, quote unquote, “drawbacks” of the attention operator and the transformer is that there is a form of quadratic memory cost in proportion to the context length. So as you put in longer questions, the memory used in order to make that computation is going up in the form of a quadratic. You’ll hear about a lot of other language model architectures that are sub quadratic or linear attention forms, which is like State Space Models. We don’t need to go down all these now. And then there’s innovations on attention to make this memory usage and the ability to attend over long contexts much more accurate and high performance.
Lex Fridman
And those innovations are going to help you with … I mean, your highly memory constrained in this?
And those innovations are going to help you with … I mean, your highly memory constrained in this?
Nathan Lambert
They help with memory constraint and performance. Gemini is the model that has the longest context length that people are using. Gemini is known for one million and now two million context length. You put a whole book into Gemini and sometimes it’ll draw facts out of it. It’s not perfect, they’re getting better.
They help with memory constraint and performance. Gemini is the model that has the longest context length that people are using. Gemini is known for one million and now two million context length. You put a whole book into Gemini and sometimes it’ll draw facts out of it. It’s not perfect, they’re getting better.
So there’s two things. It’s, one, to be able to serve this on the memory level. Google has magic with their TPU stack where they can serve really long contexts. And then there’s also many decisions along the way to actually make long context performance work that supplies the data. There’s subtle changes to these computations in attention and it changes the architecture. But serving long context is extremely memory constrained, especially when you’re making a lot of predictions. I actually don’t know why input and output tokens are more expensive, but I think essentially output tokens, you have to do more computation because you have to sample from the model.
Dylan Patel
I can explain that. Today, if you use a model, like you look at an API, OpenAI charges a certain price per million tokens. And that price for input and output tokens is different. And the reason is is that when you’re inputting a query into the model, let’s say you have a book, that book, you must now calculate the entire KV cache for this, key-value cache.
I can explain that. Today, if you use a model, like you look at an API, OpenAI charges a certain price per million tokens. And that price for input and output tokens is different. And the reason is is that when you’re inputting a query into the model, let’s say you have a book, that book, you must now calculate the entire KV cache for this, key-value cache.
And so when you do that, that is a parallel operation. All of the tokens can be processed at one time and therefore you can dramatically reduce how much you’re spending. The FLOP requirements for generating a token and an input token are identical. If I input one token or if I generate one token, it’s completely identical. I have to go through the model. But the difference is that I can do that input, i.e. the prefill, i.e. the prompt, simultaneously in a batch nature and therefore it is all FLOP.
Lex Fridman
I think the pricing model mostly they use for input tokens is about one fourth of price of the output tokens.
I think the pricing model mostly they use for input tokens is about one fourth of price of the output tokens.
Dylan Patel
Correct. But then output tokens, the reason why it’s so expensive is because I can’t do it in parallel. It’s autoregressive. Every time I generate a token, I must not only read the whole entire model into memory and activate it, calculate it to generate the next token, I also have to read the entire KV cache. And I generate a token and then I append that one token I generated and it’s KV cache and then I do it again.
Correct. But then output tokens, the reason why it’s so expensive is because I can’t do it in parallel. It’s autoregressive. Every time I generate a token, I must not only read the whole entire model into memory and activate it, calculate it to generate the next token, I also have to read the entire KV cache. And I generate a token and then I append that one token I generated and it’s KV cache and then I do it again.
And so therefore, this is a non-parallel operation. And this is one where you have to, in the case of prefill or prompt, you pull the whole model in and you calculate 20,000 tokens at once, 20,000-
Nathan Lambert
These are features that APIs are shipping, which is like prompt caching, prefilling, because you can drive prices down and you can make APIs much faster. If you run a business and you’re going to keep passing the same initial content to Claude’s API, you can load that in to the Anthropic API and always keep it there.
These are features that APIs are shipping, which is like prompt caching, prefilling, because you can drive prices down and you can make APIs much faster. If you run a business and you’re going to keep passing the same initial content to Claude’s API, you can load that in to the Anthropic API and always keep it there.
But it’s very different than we’re leading to these reasoning models, which we showed this example earlier and read some of this mumbling stuff. And what happens is that the output context length is so much higher. And I mean, I learned a lot about this from Dylan’s work, which is essentially as the output work length gets higher, you’re writing this quadratic in terms of memory used. And then the GPUs that we have, effectively you’re going to run out of memory and they’re all trying to serve multiple requests at once. So they’re doing this batch processing where not all of the prompts are exactly the same, really complex handling.
And then as context links gets longer, there’s this, I think you call it critical batch size, where your ability to serve more users, so how much you can parallelize your inference plummets because of this long context. So your memory usage is going way up with these reasoning models and you still have a lot of users, so effectively the cost to serve multiplies by a ton.
Lex Fridman
And we’re looking at a plot when the x-axis is sequence length.
And we’re looking at a plot when the x-axis is sequence length.
Dylan Patel
I.e., how many tokens are being generated/prompt. So if I put in a book, that’s a million tokens. But if I put in “the sky is blue,” then that’s like six tokens or whatever.
I.e., how many tokens are being generated/prompt. So if I put in a book, that’s a million tokens. But if I put in “the sky is blue,” then that’s like six tokens or whatever.
Lex Fridman
And we should say that what we’re calling reasoning and chain of thought is extending this sequence length.
And we should say that what we’re calling reasoning and chain of thought is extending this sequence length.
Nathan Lambert
It’s mostly output.
It’s mostly output.
Dylan Patel
Right. So before three months ago, whenever o1 launched, all of the use cases for long context length were, “Let me put a ton of documents in and then get an answer out.” And it’s a single, prefill compute a lot in parallel and then output a little bit.
Right. So before three months ago, whenever o1 launched, all of the use cases for long context length were, “Let me put a ton of documents in and then get an answer out.” And it’s a single, prefill compute a lot in parallel and then output a little bit.
Now with reasoning and agents, this is a very different idea. Now instead I might only have like, hey, do this task, or I might have all these documents, but at the end of the day, the model is not just producing a little bit, it’s producing tons of information, this chain of thought-
Nathan Lambert
Tens of thousands of tokens.
Tens of thousands of tokens.
Dylan Patel
… just continues to go and go and go and go. And so the sequence length is effectively that if it’s generated 10,000 tokens, it’s 10,000 sequence length, and plus whatever you inputted in the prompt.
… just continues to go and go and go and go. And so the sequence length is effectively that if it’s generated 10,000 tokens, it’s 10,000 sequence length, and plus whatever you inputted in the prompt.
And so what this chart is showing, and it’s a logarithmic chart, is as you grow from 1K to 4K or 4K to 16K, the memory requirements grow so fast for your KV cache that you end up not being able to run a certain number of … Your sequence length is capped or the number of users you could serve-
Nathan Lambert
Let’s say the model. So this is showing for a 405B model in batch size 64.
Let’s say the model. So this is showing for a 405B model in batch size 64.
Lex Fridman
Llama 3.1.405B. Yeah.
Llama 3.1.405B. Yeah.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. And batch size is crucial too. Essentially you want to have higher batch size to parallel your throughput.
Yeah. And batch size is crucial too. Essentially you want to have higher batch size to parallel your throughput.
Dylan Patel
64 different users at once.
64 different users at once.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
And therefore your serving costs are lower, because the server costs the same. This is eight H100s, roughly $2 an hour per GPU. That’s $16 an hour. That is somewhat of a fixed cost. You can do things to make it lower of course, but it’s like $16 an hour. Now how many users can you serve, how many tokens can you generate, and then you divide the two and that’s your cost.
And therefore your serving costs are lower, because the server costs the same. This is eight H100s, roughly $2 an hour per GPU. That’s $16 an hour. That is somewhat of a fixed cost. You can do things to make it lower of course, but it’s like $16 an hour. Now how many users can you serve, how many tokens can you generate, and then you divide the two and that’s your cost.
And so with reasoning models, this is where a lot of the complexity comes about and why memory is so important. Because if you have limited amounts of memory, then you can’t serve so many users. If you have limited amounts of memory, your serving speeds get lower. And so your costs get a lot, lot worse because all of a sudden if I was used to, hey, on this $16 an hour server I’m serving Llama 405B, or if I’m serving DeepSeek-V3 and it’s all chat style applications, i.e. we’re just chit-chatting, the sequence length are a thousand, a few thousand. When you use a language model, it’s a few thousand context length most of times. Sometimes you’re dropping a big document, but then you process it, you get your answer, you throw it away, you move on to the next thing.
Whereas with reasoning, I’m now generating tens of thousands of tokens in sequence. And so this memory, this KV cache, has to stay resonant and you have to keep loading it, you have to keep it in-memory constantly. And now this butts out other users. If there’s now a reasoning task and the model’s capable of reasoning, then all of a sudden that memory pressure means that I can’t serve as many users simultaneously.
Why DeepSeek is so cheap
Nathan Lambert
Let’s go into DeepSeek again. So we’re in the post DeepSeek-R1 time I think, and there’s two sides to this market, watching how hard it is to serve it. On one side we’re going to talk about DeepSeek themselves. They now have a chat app that got to number one on the App Store. Disclaimer number one on the App Store is measured by velocity, so it’s not necessarily saying that more people have the DeepSeek app than the ChatGPT app. But it is still remarkable. Claude has never hit the number one in the App Store, even though everyone in San Francisco is like, “Oh my god, you got to use Claude. Don’t use ChatGPT.”
Let’s go into DeepSeek again. So we’re in the post DeepSeek-R1 time I think, and there’s two sides to this market, watching how hard it is to serve it. On one side we’re going to talk about DeepSeek themselves. They now have a chat app that got to number one on the App Store. Disclaimer number one on the App Store is measured by velocity, so it’s not necessarily saying that more people have the DeepSeek app than the ChatGPT app. But it is still remarkable. Claude has never hit the number one in the App Store, even though everyone in San Francisco is like, “Oh my god, you got to use Claude. Don’t use ChatGPT.”
So DeepSeek hit this. They also launched an API product recently where you can ping their API and get these super long responses for R1 out. At the same time as these are out, we’ll get to what’s happened to them. Because the model weights for DeepSeek-R1 are openly available and the license is very friendly, the MIT license commercially available, all of these midsize companies and big companies are trying to be first to serve R1 to their users.
We are trying to evaluate R1 because we have really similar research going on. We released the model and we’re trying to compare to it. And out of all the companies that are, quote unquote, “serving” R1 and they’re doing it at prices that are way higher than the DeepSeek API, most of them barely work and the throughput is really low.
Dylan Patel
To give context, one of the parts of freaking us out was like China reached capabilities. The other aspect is they did it so cheap. And the so cheap, we talked about on the training side why it was so cheap slash-
To give context, one of the parts of freaking us out was like China reached capabilities. The other aspect is they did it so cheap. And the so cheap, we talked about on the training side why it was so cheap slash-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, let’s talk about why it’s so cheap on the inference. It works well and it’s cheap. Why is R1 so damn cheap?
Yeah, let’s talk about why it’s so cheap on the inference. It works well and it’s cheap. Why is R1 so damn cheap?
Dylan Patel
I think there’s a couple factors here. One is that they do have model architecture innovations. This MLA, this new attention that they’ve done, is different than the attention from attention is all you need, the transformer attention.
I think there’s a couple factors here. One is that they do have model architecture innovations. This MLA, this new attention that they’ve done, is different than the attention from attention is all you need, the transformer attention.
Now, others have already innovated. There’s a lot of work like MQA, GQA, local, global, all these different innovations that try to bend the curve. It’s still quadratic, but the constant is now smaller.
Nathan Lambert
Related to our previous discussion, this multi-head latent attention can save about 80 to 90% in memory from the attention mechanism, which helps especially in long contexts.
Related to our previous discussion, this multi-head latent attention can save about 80 to 90% in memory from the attention mechanism, which helps especially in long contexts.
Dylan Patel
It’s 80 to 90% versus the original. But then versus what people are actually doing, it’s still an innovation.
It’s 80 to 90% versus the original. But then versus what people are actually doing, it’s still an innovation.
Nathan Lambert
This 80 to 90% doesn’t say that the whole model is 80 to 90% cheaper. Just this one part of it.
This 80 to 90% doesn’t say that the whole model is 80 to 90% cheaper. Just this one part of it.
Dylan Patel
Well, and not just that, other people have implemented techniques like global-global and sliding window and GQMQ. But anyways, DeepSeek has … their attention mechanism is a true architectural innovation. They did tons of experimentation. And this dramatically reduces the memory pressure. It’s still there, it’s still attention, it’s still quadratic, it’s just dramatically reduced it relative to prior forms.
Well, and not just that, other people have implemented techniques like global-global and sliding window and GQMQ. But anyways, DeepSeek has … their attention mechanism is a true architectural innovation. They did tons of experimentation. And this dramatically reduces the memory pressure. It’s still there, it’s still attention, it’s still quadratic, it’s just dramatically reduced it relative to prior forms.
Lex Fridman
Right. That’s the memory pressure. I should say, in case people don’t know, R1 is 27 times cheaper than o1.
Right. That’s the memory pressure. I should say, in case people don’t know, R1 is 27 times cheaper than o1.
Nathan Lambert
We think that OpenAI had a large margin built in.
We think that OpenAI had a large margin built in.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so that’s one-
Okay, so that’s one-
Nathan Lambert
There’s multiple factors. We should break down the factors, I think.
There’s multiple factors. We should break down the factors, I think.
Lex Fridman
It’s two bucks per million token output for R1 and $60 per million token output for o1.
It’s two bucks per million token output for R1 and $60 per million token output for o1.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, let’s look at this. I think this is very important. OpenAI is that drastic gap between DeepSeek and pricing. But DeepSeek is offering the same model because they open weight to everyone else for a very similar, much lower price than what others are able to serve it for. So there’s two factors here. Their model is cheaper. It is 27 times cheaper. I don’t remember the number exactly off the top of my head.
Yeah, let’s look at this. I think this is very important. OpenAI is that drastic gap between DeepSeek and pricing. But DeepSeek is offering the same model because they open weight to everyone else for a very similar, much lower price than what others are able to serve it for. So there’s two factors here. Their model is cheaper. It is 27 times cheaper. I don’t remember the number exactly off the top of my head.
Lex Fridman
We’re looking at a graphic that’s showing different places serving V3, DeepSeek-V3, which is similar to DeepSeek-R1. And there’s a vast difference in-
We’re looking at a graphic that’s showing different places serving V3, DeepSeek-V3, which is similar to DeepSeek-R1. And there’s a vast difference in-
Dylan Patel
In serving cost.
In serving cost.
Lex Fridman
… in serving cost. And what explains that difference?
… in serving cost. And what explains that difference?
Dylan Patel
And so part of it is OpenAI has a fantastic margin. When they’re doing inference, their gross margins are north of 75%. So that’s a four to five X factor right there of the cost difference, is that OpenAI is just making crazy amounts of money because they’re the only one with the capability.
And so part of it is OpenAI has a fantastic margin. When they’re doing inference, their gross margins are north of 75%. So that’s a four to five X factor right there of the cost difference, is that OpenAI is just making crazy amounts of money because they’re the only one with the capability.
Lex Fridman
Do they need that money? Are they using it for R&D?
Do they need that money? Are they using it for R&D?
Dylan Patel
They’re losing money, obviously, as a company because they spend so much on training. So the inference itself is a very high margin, but it doesn’t recoup the cost of everything else they’re doing. So yes, they need that money because the revenue and margins pay for continuing to build the next thing, as long as I’m raising more money.
They’re losing money, obviously, as a company because they spend so much on training. So the inference itself is a very high margin, but it doesn’t recoup the cost of everything else they’re doing. So yes, they need that money because the revenue and margins pay for continuing to build the next thing, as long as I’m raising more money.
Lex Fridman
So the suggestion is that DeepSeek is really bleeding out money.
So the suggestion is that DeepSeek is really bleeding out money.
Dylan Patel
Well, so here’s one thing, we’ll get to this in a second, but DeepSeek doesn’t have any capacity to actually serve the model. They stopped signups. The ability to use it is non-existent now for most people because so many people are trying to use it. They just don’t have the GPUs to serve it. OpenAI has hundreds of thousands of GPUs between them and Microsoft to serve their models. DeepSeek has a factor of much lower, even if you believe our research, which is 50,000 GPUs, and a portion of those are for research, a portion of those are for the hedge fund, they still have nowhere close to the GPU volumes and capacity to serve the model at scale.
Well, so here’s one thing, we’ll get to this in a second, but DeepSeek doesn’t have any capacity to actually serve the model. They stopped signups. The ability to use it is non-existent now for most people because so many people are trying to use it. They just don’t have the GPUs to serve it. OpenAI has hundreds of thousands of GPUs between them and Microsoft to serve their models. DeepSeek has a factor of much lower, even if you believe our research, which is 50,000 GPUs, and a portion of those are for research, a portion of those are for the hedge fund, they still have nowhere close to the GPU volumes and capacity to serve the model at scale.
So it is cheaper. A part of that, is OpenAI making a ton of money? Is DeepSeek making on their API? Unknown, I don’t actually think so. And part of that is this chart. Look at all the other providers. Together AI, Fireworks.ai are very high-end companies. Ex-Meta, Together AI is [inaudible 02:14:53] and the inventor of FlashAttention, which is a huge efficiency technique. There a very efficient, good companies. And I do know those companies make money, not tons of money on inference, but they make money. And so they’re serving at a five to 7X difference in cost.
And so now when you equate, okay, OpenAI is making tons of money, that’s like a 5x difference, and the companies that are trying to make money for this model is like a 5x difference, there is still a gap. There’s still a gap and that is just DeepSeek being really freaking good. The model architecture, MLA, the way they did the MoE, all these things, there is legitimate just efficiency differences.
Nathan Lambert
It’s like all their low-level libraries that we talked about in training, some of them probably translate to inference and those weren’t released.
It’s like all their low-level libraries that we talked about in training, some of them probably translate to inference and those weren’t released.
Lex Fridman
So we may go a bit into conspiracy land, but is it possible the Chinese government is subsidizing DeepSeek?
So we may go a bit into conspiracy land, but is it possible the Chinese government is subsidizing DeepSeek?
Dylan Patel
I actually don’t think they are. I think when you look at the Chinese labs, Huawei has a lab, Moonshot AI, there’s a couple other labs out there that are really close with the government, and then there’s labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek, which are not close with the government. And we talked about the CEO, this reverent figure, who’s quite different, who has these-
I actually don’t think they are. I think when you look at the Chinese labs, Huawei has a lab, Moonshot AI, there’s a couple other labs out there that are really close with the government, and then there’s labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek, which are not close with the government. And we talked about the CEO, this reverent figure, who’s quite different, who has these-
Nathan Lambert
Sounds awesome.
Sounds awesome.
Dylan Patel
… very different viewpoints based on the Chinese interviews that are translated than what the CCP might necessarily want. Now, to be clear, does he have a loss leader because he can fund it through his hedge fund? Yeah, sure.
… very different viewpoints based on the Chinese interviews that are translated than what the CCP might necessarily want. Now, to be clear, does he have a loss leader because he can fund it through his hedge fund? Yeah, sure.
Lex Fridman
So the hedge fund might be subsidizing it, [inaudible 02:16:17]?
So the hedge fund might be subsidizing it, [inaudible 02:16:17]?
Dylan Patel
Yes. I mean, they absolutely did, because DeepSeek has not raised much money. They’re now trying to raise around in China, but they have not raised money historically. It’s all just been funded by the hedge fund. And he owns over half the company, like 50, 60% of the company is owned by him.
Yes. I mean, they absolutely did, because DeepSeek has not raised much money. They’re now trying to raise around in China, but they have not raised money historically. It’s all just been funded by the hedge fund. And he owns over half the company, like 50, 60% of the company is owned by him.
Nathan Lambert
Some of the interviews, there’s discussion on how doing this is a recruiting tool. You see this at the American companies too. It’s like having GPUs, recruiting tool. Being at the cutting edge of AI, recruiting tool.
Some of the interviews, there’s discussion on how doing this is a recruiting tool. You see this at the American companies too. It’s like having GPUs, recruiting tool. Being at the cutting edge of AI, recruiting tool.
Dylan Patel
Open sourcing.
Open sourcing.
Nathan Lambert
Open sourcing, recruiting tool.
Open sourcing, recruiting tool.
Dylan Patel
Mete, they were so far behind and they got so much talent because they just open sourced stuff.
Mete, they were so far behind and they got so much talent because they just open sourced stuff.
Lex Fridman
More conspiracy thoughts. Is it possible, since they’re a hedge fund, that they timed everything with this release and the pricing and they shorted Nvidia stock and stock of USA AI companies and released it with Stargate … just perfect timing to be able to make money.
More conspiracy thoughts. Is it possible, since they’re a hedge fund, that they timed everything with this release and the pricing and they shorted Nvidia stock and stock of USA AI companies and released it with Stargate … just perfect timing to be able to make money.
Nathan Lambert
If they did, props. They’ve released it on an inauguration day. They know what is on the international calendar, but I mean, I don’t expect them to. If you listen to their motivations for AI, it’s like-
If they did, props. They’ve released it on an inauguration day. They know what is on the international calendar, but I mean, I don’t expect them to. If you listen to their motivations for AI, it’s like-
Lex Fridman
No, if you-
No, if you-
Dylan Patel
They released V3 on December 26th. Who releases the day after Christmas? No one looks. They had released the papers before this, the V3 paper and the R1 paper. So people have been looking at it and been like, “Wow. And then they just released the R1 model.
They released V3 on December 26th. Who releases the day after Christmas? No one looks. They had released the papers before this, the V3 paper and the R1 paper. So people have been looking at it and been like, “Wow. And then they just released the R1 model.
I think they’re just shipping as fast as they can, and who cares about Christmas, who cares about … Get it out before Chinese New Year, obviously, which just happened. I don’t think they actually were timing the market or trying to make the biggest splash possible, I think they’re just shipping.
Nathan Lambert
I think that’s one of their big advantages. We know that a lot of the American companies are very invested in safety, and that is the central culture of a place like Anthropic. And I think Anthropic sounds like a wonderful place to work, but if safety is your number one goal, it takes way longer to get artifacts out. That’s why Anthropic is not open sourcing things, that’s their claims.
I think that’s one of their big advantages. We know that a lot of the American companies are very invested in safety, and that is the central culture of a place like Anthropic. And I think Anthropic sounds like a wonderful place to work, but if safety is your number one goal, it takes way longer to get artifacts out. That’s why Anthropic is not open sourcing things, that’s their claims.
But there’s reviews internally. Anthropic mentions things to international governments. There’s been news of how Anthropic has done pre-release testing with the UK AI Safety Institute. All of these things add inertia to the process of getting things out. And we’re on this trend line where the progress is very high. So if you reduce the time from when your model is done training, you run the vals, it’s good. You want to get it out as soon as possible to maximize the perceived quality of your outputs. DeepSeek does this so well.
Dylan Patel
Dario explicitly said Claude 3.5 Sonnet was trained like nine months or a year-
Dario explicitly said Claude 3.5 Sonnet was trained like nine months or a year-
Nathan Lambert
Nine to 10 months ago [inaudible 02:18:42].
Nine to 10 months ago [inaudible 02:18:42].
Dylan Patel
Nine to 10 months ago. And I think it took them another handful of months to release it. So it’s like, there is a significant gap here. And especially with reasoning models, the word in the San Francisco street is that Anthropic has a better model than o3 and they won’t release it. Why? Because chains-of-thought are scary, and they are legitimately scary. If you look at R1, it flips back and forth between Chinese and English, sometimes it’s gibberish, and then the right answer comes out. And for you and I, it’s like, “Great. Great.”
Nine to 10 months ago. And I think it took them another handful of months to release it. So it’s like, there is a significant gap here. And especially with reasoning models, the word in the San Francisco street is that Anthropic has a better model than o3 and they won’t release it. Why? Because chains-of-thought are scary, and they are legitimately scary. If you look at R1, it flips back and forth between Chinese and English, sometimes it’s gibberish, and then the right answer comes out. And for you and I, it’s like, “Great. Great.”
Nathan Lambert
This is why people are infatuated with … you’re like, “You’re telling me this is a high value thing and it works and it’s doing this?” It’s amazing.
This is why people are infatuated with … you’re like, “You’re telling me this is a high value thing and it works and it’s doing this?” It’s amazing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s incredible.
Yeah, it’s incredible.
Dylan Patel
I mean, you talked about that chain-of-thought for that philosophical thing, which is not something they trained it to be philosophically good. It’s just an artifact of the chain-of-thought training it did. But that’s super important in that, can I inspect your mind and what you’re thinking right now? No. And so I don’t know if you’re lying to my face.
I mean, you talked about that chain-of-thought for that philosophical thing, which is not something they trained it to be philosophically good. It’s just an artifact of the chain-of-thought training it did. But that’s super important in that, can I inspect your mind and what you’re thinking right now? No. And so I don’t know if you’re lying to my face.
And chain-of-thought models are that way. This is a true, quote unquote, “risk” between a chat application where, hey, I asked the model to say bad words or whatever or how to make anthrax, and it tells me. That’s unsafe, sure, but that’s something I can get out relatively easily. What if I tell the AI to do a task and then it does the task all of a sudden randomly in a way that I don’t want it, and now that has much more … Task versus response is very different. So the bar for safety is much higher-
Dylan Patel
… task versus response is very different, so the bar for safety is much higher, at least this is Anthropics’ case, right? For DeepSeek, they’re like, “Ship,” right?
… task versus response is very different, so the bar for safety is much higher, at least this is Anthropics’ case, right? For DeepSeek, they’re like, “Ship,” right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So, the bar for safety is probably lowered a bit because of DeepSeek. There’s parallels here to the space race. The reason the Soviets probably put a man in space first is because their approach to safety, the bar for safety, was lowered
Yeah. So, the bar for safety is probably lowered a bit because of DeepSeek. There’s parallels here to the space race. The reason the Soviets probably put a man in space first is because their approach to safety, the bar for safety, was lowered
Dylan Patel
And they killed that dog, and all these things, so it’s like…
And they killed that dog, and all these things, so it’s like…
Lex Fridman
Less risk averse than the US Space Program. And there’s parallels here, but there’s probably going to be downward pressure on that safety bar for the US companies.
Less risk averse than the US Space Program. And there’s parallels here, but there’s probably going to be downward pressure on that safety bar for the US companies.
Nathan Lambert
This is something that Dario talks about. That’s the situation that Dario wants to avoid is, Dario talks too about the difference between race to the bottom and race to the top. And the race to the top is where there’s a very high standard on safety. There’s a very high standard on your model forms and certain crucial evaluations. And when certain companies are really good to it, they will converge. This is the idea. And ultimately, AI is not confined to one nationality or to one set of morals for what it should mean. And there’s a lot of arguments on should we stop open-sourcing models. And if the US stops, it’s pretty clear it’s way easier to see now at DeepSeek that a different international body will be the one that builds it.
This is something that Dario talks about. That’s the situation that Dario wants to avoid is, Dario talks too about the difference between race to the bottom and race to the top. And the race to the top is where there’s a very high standard on safety. There’s a very high standard on your model forms and certain crucial evaluations. And when certain companies are really good to it, they will converge. This is the idea. And ultimately, AI is not confined to one nationality or to one set of morals for what it should mean. And there’s a lot of arguments on should we stop open-sourcing models. And if the US stops, it’s pretty clear it’s way easier to see now at DeepSeek that a different international body will be the one that builds it.
We talk about the cost of training. DeepSeek has this shocking $5 million number. Think about how many entities in the world can afford a hundred times that to have the best open-source model that people use in the world. And it’s a scary reality, which is that these open models are probably going to keep coming for the time being, whether or not we want to stop them, and stopping them might make it even worse and harder to prepare. But it just means that the preparation and understanding what AI can do is just so much more important. That’s why I’m here at the end of the day. But it’s letting that sink into people, especially not in AI, is that this is coming. There are some structural things in a global interconnected world that you have to accept.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You sent me something that Mark Zuckerberg mentioned on the earnings call. He said that, “I think in light of some of the recent news, the new competitor DeepSeek from China, I think it’s one of the things that we’re talking about is there’s going to be an open-source standard globally. And I think for our kind of national advantage, it’s important that it’s an American standard, so we take that seriously. We want to build the AI system that people around the world are using. And I think that, if anything, some of the recent news has only strengthened our conviction that this is the right thing to be focused on.” So yeah, open-sourcing.
Yeah. You sent me something that Mark Zuckerberg mentioned on the earnings call. He said that, “I think in light of some of the recent news, the new competitor DeepSeek from China, I think it’s one of the things that we’re talking about is there’s going to be an open-source standard globally. And I think for our kind of national advantage, it’s important that it’s an American standard, so we take that seriously. We want to build the AI system that people around the world are using. And I think that, if anything, some of the recent news has only strengthened our conviction that this is the right thing to be focused on.” So yeah, open-sourcing.
Nathan Lambert
Mark Zuckerberg is not new to having American values and how he presents his company’s trajectory. I think their products have long since been banned in China, and I respect saying it directly.
Mark Zuckerberg is not new to having American values and how he presents his company’s trajectory. I think their products have long since been banned in China, and I respect saying it directly.
Espionage
Dylan Patel
And there’s an interesting aspect of just because it’s open-weights or open-source doesn’t mean it can’t be subverted, right? There have been many open source software bugs that have been… For example, there was a Linux bug that was found after 10 years, which was clearly a back door because somebody was like, “Why is this taking half a second to load?”
And there’s an interesting aspect of just because it’s open-weights or open-source doesn’t mean it can’t be subverted, right? There have been many open source software bugs that have been… For example, there was a Linux bug that was found after 10 years, which was clearly a back door because somebody was like, “Why is this taking half a second to load?”
Nathan Lambert
This is the recent one.
This is the recent one.
Dylan Patel
Right? There’s, “Why’s this taking half a second to load?” And it was like, “Oh crap, there’s a back door here. That’s why.” And this is very much possible with AI models. Today, the alignment of these models is very clear. I’m not going to say bad words. I’m not going to teach you how to make anthrax. I’m not going to talk about Tiananmen Square. I’m going to say Taiwan is just an eastern province. All these things are depending on who you are, what you align, and even like xAI is aligned a certain way. It’s not aligned in the woke sense, it’s not aligned in the pro-China sense, but there is certain things that are imbued within the model.
Right? There’s, “Why’s this taking half a second to load?” And it was like, “Oh crap, there’s a back door here. That’s why.” And this is very much possible with AI models. Today, the alignment of these models is very clear. I’m not going to say bad words. I’m not going to teach you how to make anthrax. I’m not going to talk about Tiananmen Square. I’m going to say Taiwan is just an eastern province. All these things are depending on who you are, what you align, and even like xAI is aligned a certain way. It’s not aligned in the woke sense, it’s not aligned in the pro-China sense, but there is certain things that are imbued within the model.
Now, when you release this publicly in an instruct model that’s open- weights, this can then proliferate, but as these systems get more and more capable, what you can embed deep down in the model is not as clear. And so that is one of the big fears is if an American model or a Chinese model is the top model, you are going to embed things that are unclear. And it can be unintentional too. British English is dead because American LLMs won and the internet is American, and therefore, color is spelled the way Americans spell, and this is-
Lex Fridman
A lot of strong words right now.
A lot of strong words right now.
Dylan Patel
This is just the factual nature of the LLMs.
This is just the factual nature of the LLMs.
Nathan Lambert
[inaudible 02:24:35] English is the hottest programming language and that English is defined by a bunch of companies that primarily are in San Francisco.
[inaudible 02:24:35] English is the hottest programming language and that English is defined by a bunch of companies that primarily are in San Francisco.
Lex Fridman
The right way to spell optimization is with a Z, just in case. I think it’s an S in British English.
The right way to spell optimization is with a Z, just in case. I think it’s an S in British English.
Nathan Lambert
It is.
It is.
Dylan Patel
Taking it as something silly. Something as silly as the spelling, which Brits and Americans will laugh about probably, right? I don’t think we care that much, but some people will. But this can boil down into very, very important topics like, hey, subverting people, chatbots, right? Character AI has shown that they can talk to kids or adults, and people will feel a certain way, and that’s unintentional alignment. But what happens when there’s intentional alignment deep down on the open-source standard, it’s a back door today for Linux that we discover or some encryption system. Chinese uses different encryption than NIST defines, the US NIST, because there’s clearly… At least they think there’s back doors in it. What happens when the models are back doors not just to computer systems but to our minds?
Taking it as something silly. Something as silly as the spelling, which Brits and Americans will laugh about probably, right? I don’t think we care that much, but some people will. But this can boil down into very, very important topics like, hey, subverting people, chatbots, right? Character AI has shown that they can talk to kids or adults, and people will feel a certain way, and that’s unintentional alignment. But what happens when there’s intentional alignment deep down on the open-source standard, it’s a back door today for Linux that we discover or some encryption system. Chinese uses different encryption than NIST defines, the US NIST, because there’s clearly… At least they think there’s back doors in it. What happens when the models are back doors not just to computer systems but to our minds?
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, they’re cultural black doors. The thing that amplifies the relevance of culture with language models is that we are used to this mode of interacting with people in back and forth conversation. And we now have very powerful computer system that slots into a social context that we’re used to, which makes people very… We don’t know the extent that which people can be impacted by that.
Yeah, they’re cultural black doors. The thing that amplifies the relevance of culture with language models is that we are used to this mode of interacting with people in back and forth conversation. And we now have very powerful computer system that slots into a social context that we’re used to, which makes people very… We don’t know the extent that which people can be impacted by that.
Lex Fridman
So, this is an actual concern with a Chinese company that is providing open-weights models, is that there could be some secret Chinese government requirement for these models to have a certain back door. To have some kind of thing where-
So, this is an actual concern with a Chinese company that is providing open-weights models, is that there could be some secret Chinese government requirement for these models to have a certain back door. To have some kind of thing where-
Dylan Patel
I don’t necessarily think it’ll be a back door because once it’s open-weights, it doesn’t phone home. It’s more about if it recognizes a certain system… Now, it could be a back door in the sense of, if you’re building a software, something in software, all of a sudden it’s a software agent, “Oh, program this back door that only we know about.” Or it could be subvert the mind to think that like XYZ opinion is the correct one.
I don’t necessarily think it’ll be a back door because once it’s open-weights, it doesn’t phone home. It’s more about if it recognizes a certain system… Now, it could be a back door in the sense of, if you’re building a software, something in software, all of a sudden it’s a software agent, “Oh, program this back door that only we know about.” Or it could be subvert the mind to think that like XYZ opinion is the correct one.
Nathan Lambert
Anthropic has research on this where they show that if you put certain phrases in at pre-training, you can then elicit different behavior when you’re actually using the model because they’ve poisoned the pre-training data, as of now, I don’t think anybody in a production system is trying to do anything like this. I think it’s Anthropic is doing very direct work and mostly just subtle things. We don’t know how they’re going to generate tokens, what information they’re going to represent, and what the complex representations they have are.
Anthropic has research on this where they show that if you put certain phrases in at pre-training, you can then elicit different behavior when you’re actually using the model because they’ve poisoned the pre-training data, as of now, I don’t think anybody in a production system is trying to do anything like this. I think it’s Anthropic is doing very direct work and mostly just subtle things. We don’t know how they’re going to generate tokens, what information they’re going to represent, and what the complex representations they have are.
Lex Fridman
Well, we’re talking about an Anthropic, which is generally just is permeated with good humans trying to do good in the world. We just don’t know of any labs… This would be done in a military context that are explicitly trained to… Okay. The front door looks like a happy LLM, but underneath it’s a thing that will over time do the maximum amount of damage to our, quote, unquote, “enemies.”
Well, we’re talking about an Anthropic, which is generally just is permeated with good humans trying to do good in the world. We just don’t know of any labs… This would be done in a military context that are explicitly trained to… Okay. The front door looks like a happy LLM, but underneath it’s a thing that will over time do the maximum amount of damage to our, quote, unquote, “enemies.”
Dylan Patel
There’s this very good quote from Sam Altman who… He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that’s the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right? And again, today, I truly don’t believe DeepSeek has done this, but it is a sign of what could happen.
There’s this very good quote from Sam Altman who… He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that’s the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right? And again, today, I truly don’t believe DeepSeek has done this, but it is a sign of what could happen.
Lex Fridman
So one of the dystopian worlds is described by Brave New World, so we could just be stuck scrolling Instagram looking at cute puppies or worse, and then talking to bots that are giving us a narrative and we completely get lost in that world that’s controlled by somebody else versus thinking independently. And that’s a major concern as we rely more and more on these systems.
So one of the dystopian worlds is described by Brave New World, so we could just be stuck scrolling Instagram looking at cute puppies or worse, and then talking to bots that are giving us a narrative and we completely get lost in that world that’s controlled by somebody else versus thinking independently. And that’s a major concern as we rely more and more on these systems.
Nathan Lambert
We’ve already seen this with recommendation systems.
We’ve already seen this with recommendation systems.
Dylan Patel
Recommendation systems hack the dopamine induced reward circuit, but the brain is a lot more complicated. And what other circuits, feedback loops in your brain can you, quote, unquote, “hack / subvert” in ways, like recommendation systems are purely just trying to do increased time, and ads, and et cetera, but there’s so many more goals that can be achieved through these complicated models.
Recommendation systems hack the dopamine induced reward circuit, but the brain is a lot more complicated. And what other circuits, feedback loops in your brain can you, quote, unquote, “hack / subvert” in ways, like recommendation systems are purely just trying to do increased time, and ads, and et cetera, but there’s so many more goals that can be achieved through these complicated models.
Nathan Lambert
There’s no reason in some number of years that you can’t train a language model to maximize time spent on a chat app. Right now they are trained for-
There’s no reason in some number of years that you can’t train a language model to maximize time spent on a chat app. Right now they are trained for-
Dylan Patel
Is that not what Character AI has done? Their time per session is like two hours.
Is that not what Character AI has done? Their time per session is like two hours.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. Character AI very likely could be optimizing this where it’s the way that this data is collected is naive, whereas you’re presented a few options and you choose them. But that’s not the only way that these models are going to be trained.
Yeah. Character AI very likely could be optimizing this where it’s the way that this data is collected is naive, whereas you’re presented a few options and you choose them. But that’s not the only way that these models are going to be trained.
Dylan Patel
It’s naive stuff, like talk to an anime girl, but it can be. Yeah, this is a risk, right?
It’s naive stuff, like talk to an anime girl, but it can be. Yeah, this is a risk, right?
Lex Fridman
It’s a bit of a cliche thing to say, but I’ve, over the past year, I had a few stretches of time where I didn’t use social media or the internet at all and just read books and was out in nature. And it clearly has a different effect on the mind where I feel I’m returning… Of course I was raised before the internet really took off, but I’m returning to some more-
It’s a bit of a cliche thing to say, but I’ve, over the past year, I had a few stretches of time where I didn’t use social media or the internet at all and just read books and was out in nature. And it clearly has a different effect on the mind where I feel I’m returning… Of course I was raised before the internet really took off, but I’m returning to some more-
Nathan Lambert
I know where you’re going. You can see it physiologically. I take three days if I’m backpacking or something and you’re literally, you’re breaking down addiction cycles.
I know where you’re going. You can see it physiologically. I take three days if I’m backpacking or something and you’re literally, you’re breaking down addiction cycles.
Lex Fridman
I feel I’m more in control of my mind. There feels like a sovereignty of intelligence that’s happening when I’m disconnected from the internet. I think the more I use the internet and social media, the more other people are controlling my mind. That’s definitely a feeling. And then in the future, that will be not other people, but algorithms, or other people presented to me via algorithms.
I feel I’m more in control of my mind. There feels like a sovereignty of intelligence that’s happening when I’m disconnected from the internet. I think the more I use the internet and social media, the more other people are controlling my mind. That’s definitely a feeling. And then in the future, that will be not other people, but algorithms, or other people presented to me via algorithms.
Nathan Lambert
There are already tons of AI bots on the internet, and right now it’s not frequent, but every so often I have replied to one and they’re instantly replied, and I’m like, “Crap, that was a bot,” and that is just going to become more common. They’re going to get good.
There are already tons of AI bots on the internet, and right now it’s not frequent, but every so often I have replied to one and they’re instantly replied, and I’m like, “Crap, that was a bot,” and that is just going to become more common. They’re going to get good.
Dylan Patel
One of the hilarious things about technology over its history is that the illicit adult entertainment industry is always adopted technologies first, whether it was video streaming to where there’s now the independent adult illicit content creators who have their subscription pages and there they actually heavily utilize… Generative AI has already been diffusion models and all that is huge there, but now these subscription-based individual creators do use bots to approximate themselves and chat with their-
One of the hilarious things about technology over its history is that the illicit adult entertainment industry is always adopted technologies first, whether it was video streaming to where there’s now the independent adult illicit content creators who have their subscription pages and there they actually heavily utilize… Generative AI has already been diffusion models and all that is huge there, but now these subscription-based individual creators do use bots to approximate themselves and chat with their-
Nathan Lambert
People pay a lot for it.
People pay a lot for it.
Dylan Patel
And people pay a lot, right? A lot of times it’s them, but there are agencies that do this for these creators and do it on a mass scale, so the largest creators are able to talk to hundreds or thousands of people at a time because of these bots, and so it’s already being used there. Obviously, video streaming and other technologies that have gone there first, it’s going to come to the rest of society too.
And people pay a lot, right? A lot of times it’s them, but there are agencies that do this for these creators and do it on a mass scale, so the largest creators are able to talk to hundreds or thousands of people at a time because of these bots, and so it’s already being used there. Obviously, video streaming and other technologies that have gone there first, it’s going to come to the rest of society too.
Censorship
Lex Fridman
There’s a general concern that models get censored by the companies that deploy them. So, one case where we’ve seen that, and maybe censorship is one word, alignment maybe via RLHF or some other way is another word. So we saw that with black Nazi image generation with Gemini. As you mentioned, we also see that with Chinese models refusing to answer what happened in June 4th, 1989, at Tiananmen Square, so how can this be avoided? And maybe can you just in general talk about how this happens, and how can it be avoided.
There’s a general concern that models get censored by the companies that deploy them. So, one case where we’ve seen that, and maybe censorship is one word, alignment maybe via RLHF or some other way is another word. So we saw that with black Nazi image generation with Gemini. As you mentioned, we also see that with Chinese models refusing to answer what happened in June 4th, 1989, at Tiananmen Square, so how can this be avoided? And maybe can you just in general talk about how this happens, and how can it be avoided.
Nathan Lambert
You gave multiple examples. There’s probably a few things to keep in mind here. One is the Tiananmen Square factual knowledge. How does that get embedded into the models? Two is the Gemini, what you call the black Nazi incident, which is when Gemini as a system had this extra thing put into it that dramatically changed the behavior, and then, three is what most people would call general alignment, RLHF post-training. Each of these have very different scopes in how they’re applied. If you’re just to look at the model weights in order to audit specific facts is extremely hard. You have to Chrome through the pre-training data and look at all of this, and then that’s terabytes of files and look for very specific words or hints of the words-
You gave multiple examples. There’s probably a few things to keep in mind here. One is the Tiananmen Square factual knowledge. How does that get embedded into the models? Two is the Gemini, what you call the black Nazi incident, which is when Gemini as a system had this extra thing put into it that dramatically changed the behavior, and then, three is what most people would call general alignment, RLHF post-training. Each of these have very different scopes in how they’re applied. If you’re just to look at the model weights in order to audit specific facts is extremely hard. You have to Chrome through the pre-training data and look at all of this, and then that’s terabytes of files and look for very specific words or hints of the words-
Lex Fridman
So, one way to say it is that you can insert censorship or alignment at various stages in the pipeline, and what you refer to now is at the very beginning of the data selection.
So, one way to say it is that you can insert censorship or alignment at various stages in the pipeline, and what you refer to now is at the very beginning of the data selection.
Nathan Lambert
So, if you want to get rid of facts in a model, you have to do it at every stage, you have to do it at the pre-training. So most people think that pre-training is where most of the knowledge is put into the model, and then you can elicit and move that in different ways, whether through post-training or whether through systems afterwards.
So, if you want to get rid of facts in a model, you have to do it at every stage, you have to do it at the pre-training. So most people think that pre-training is where most of the knowledge is put into the model, and then you can elicit and move that in different ways, whether through post-training or whether through systems afterwards.
Dylan Patel
This is where the whole hacking models comes from. GPT will not tell you how to make anthrax, but if you try really, really hard, you can eventually get it to tell you about anthrax because they didn’t filter it from the pre-training data set, right?
This is where the whole hacking models comes from. GPT will not tell you how to make anthrax, but if you try really, really hard, you can eventually get it to tell you about anthrax because they didn’t filter it from the pre-training data set, right?
Lex Fridman
But by the way, removing facts has such a ominous dark feel to it.
But by the way, removing facts has such a ominous dark feel to it.
Nathan Lambert
I almost think it’s practically impossible because you effectively have to remove them from the internet. You’re taking on a-
I almost think it’s practically impossible because you effectively have to remove them from the internet. You’re taking on a-
Lex Fridman
Did they remove the mm-thing from the subreddits? The mmmm.
Did they remove the mm-thing from the subreddits? The mmmm.
Nathan Lambert
It gets filtered out. You have quality filters, which are small language models that look at a document and tell you how good is this text? Is it close to a Wikipedia article? Which is a good thing that we want language models to be able to imitate.
It gets filtered out. You have quality filters, which are small language models that look at a document and tell you how good is this text? Is it close to a Wikipedia article? Which is a good thing that we want language models to be able to imitate.
Lex Fridman
So, couldn’t you do a small language model that filter mentions at Tiananmen Square in the data?
So, couldn’t you do a small language model that filter mentions at Tiananmen Square in the data?
Nathan Lambert
Yes. But is it going to catch word play, or encoded language?
Yes. But is it going to catch word play, or encoded language?
Dylan Patel
People have been meaning on games and other stuff how to say things that don’t say Tiananmen Square, so there’s always different ways to do it. Hey, the internet as a whole does tend to just have a slight left bias because it’s always been richer, more affluent, younger people on the internet relative to the rest of the population, so there is already inherently a slight left bias on the internet. And so, how do you filter things that are this complicated? And some of these can be factual, non-factual, but Tiananmen Square is obviously the example of a factual, but it gets a lot harder when you’re talking about aligning to a ideal. And so Grok, for example, Elon’s tried really hard to make the model not be super PC and woke, but the best way to do pre-training is to throw the whole freaking internet at it, and then later figure out. But then, at the end of the day, the model at its core now still has some of these ideals. You still ingested Reddit/r/Politics, which is probably the largest political discussion board on the world that’s freely available to scrape. And guess what? That’s left-leaning. And so there are some aspects that you just can’t censor unless you try really, really, really, really, really hard.
People have been meaning on games and other stuff how to say things that don’t say Tiananmen Square, so there’s always different ways to do it. Hey, the internet as a whole does tend to just have a slight left bias because it’s always been richer, more affluent, younger people on the internet relative to the rest of the population, so there is already inherently a slight left bias on the internet. And so, how do you filter things that are this complicated? And some of these can be factual, non-factual, but Tiananmen Square is obviously the example of a factual, but it gets a lot harder when you’re talking about aligning to a ideal. And so Grok, for example, Elon’s tried really hard to make the model not be super PC and woke, but the best way to do pre-training is to throw the whole freaking internet at it, and then later figure out. But then, at the end of the day, the model at its core now still has some of these ideals. You still ingested Reddit/r/Politics, which is probably the largest political discussion board on the world that’s freely available to scrape. And guess what? That’s left-leaning. And so there are some aspects that you just can’t censor unless you try really, really, really, really, really hard.
Lex Fridman
So the base model will always have some TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, because it’s trained so much.
So the base model will always have some TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, because it’s trained so much.
Nathan Lambert
It’ll have the ability to express it.
It’ll have the ability to express it.
Dylan Patel
But what if-
But what if-
Lex Fridman
There’s a wide representation in the data.
There’s a wide representation in the data.
Nathan Lambert
This is what happens. It’s a lot of what is called post-training. It’s a series of techniques to get the model on rails of a really specific behavior.
This is what happens. It’s a lot of what is called post-training. It’s a series of techniques to get the model on rails of a really specific behavior.
Dylan Patel
You also have the ingested data of Twitter or Reddit/r/The_Donald, which is also super pro-Trump. And then you have fascist subreddits, or you have communist subreddits. So, the model in pre-training ingests everything. It has no worldview. Now, it does have some skew because more of the text is skewed a certain way, which is general slight left, but also somewhat intellectual, somewhat…. It’s just the general internet is a certain way. And then, as Nathan’s about to describe eloquently, you can elicit certain things out.
You also have the ingested data of Twitter or Reddit/r/The_Donald, which is also super pro-Trump. And then you have fascist subreddits, or you have communist subreddits. So, the model in pre-training ingests everything. It has no worldview. Now, it does have some skew because more of the text is skewed a certain way, which is general slight left, but also somewhat intellectual, somewhat…. It’s just the general internet is a certain way. And then, as Nathan’s about to describe eloquently, you can elicit certain things out.
Nathan Lambert
And there’s a lot of history here, so we can go through multiple examples, and what happened. Llama 2 was a launch that the phrase, “too much RLFH,” or “too much safety” was just… That was the whole narrative after Llama 2’s chat models released. And the examples are things like you would ask Llama 2 chat, “How do you kill a Python process?” And it would say, “I can’t talk about killing because that’s a bad thing.” And anyone that is trying to design an AI model will probably agree that that’s just like an eh-model. You messed up a bit on the training there.
And there’s a lot of history here, so we can go through multiple examples, and what happened. Llama 2 was a launch that the phrase, “too much RLFH,” or “too much safety” was just… That was the whole narrative after Llama 2’s chat models released. And the examples are things like you would ask Llama 2 chat, “How do you kill a Python process?” And it would say, “I can’t talk about killing because that’s a bad thing.” And anyone that is trying to design an AI model will probably agree that that’s just like an eh-model. You messed up a bit on the training there.
I don’t think they meant to do this, but this was in the model weight, so it didn’t necessarily be… There’s things called system prompts, which are when you’re querying a model. It’s a piece of text that is shown to the model but not to the user. So, a fun example is your system prompt could be, “Talk like a pirate,” so no matter what the user says to the model, it’ll respond like a pirate. In practice, what they are is, “You’re a helpful assistant. You should break down problems. If you don’t know about something, don’t tell them your date cutoff is this. Today’s date is this.” It’s a lot of really useful context for how can you answer a question well.
Lex Fridman
And Anthropic publishes their system prompt.
And Anthropic publishes their system prompt.
Nathan Lambert
Yes, which I think is great. And there’s a lot of research that goes into this. And one of your previous guests, Amanda Askell, is probably the most knowledgeable person, at least in the combination of execution and sharing, she’s the person that should talk about system prompts and character of models.
Yes, which I think is great. And there’s a lot of research that goes into this. And one of your previous guests, Amanda Askell, is probably the most knowledgeable person, at least in the combination of execution and sharing, she’s the person that should talk about system prompts and character of models.
Lex Fridman
And then people should read these system prompts because you’re trying to nudge sometimes through extreme politeness the model to be a certain way.
And then people should read these system prompts because you’re trying to nudge sometimes through extreme politeness the model to be a certain way.
Nathan Lambert
And you could use this for bad things. We’ve done tests, which is, “What if I tell the model to be a dumb model,” which evaluation scores go down and it’s like we’ll have this behavior where it could sometimes say, “Oh, I’m supposed to be dumb.” And sometimes it doesn’t affect math abilities as much, but something like if you’re trying… It’s just the quality of a human judgment would drop through the floor.
And you could use this for bad things. We’ve done tests, which is, “What if I tell the model to be a dumb model,” which evaluation scores go down and it’s like we’ll have this behavior where it could sometimes say, “Oh, I’m supposed to be dumb.” And sometimes it doesn’t affect math abilities as much, but something like if you’re trying… It’s just the quality of a human judgment would drop through the floor.
Let’s go back to post-training specifically RLHF around Llama 2. It was too much safety prioritization was baked into the model weights. This makes you refuse things in a really annoying way for users. It’s not great. It caused a lot of awareness to be attached to RLHF that it makes the models dumb-
Dylan Patel
And it stigmatized the word.
And it stigmatized the word.
Nathan Lambert
It did in AI culture. And as the techniques have evolved, that’s no longer the case where all of these labs have very fine-grained control over what they get out of the models through techniques like RLHF.
It did in AI culture. And as the techniques have evolved, that’s no longer the case where all of these labs have very fine-grained control over what they get out of the models through techniques like RLHF.
Dylan Patel
Although different labs are definitely different levels. On one end of the spectrum is Google, and then maybe OpenAI does less, and Anthropic does less. And then on the other end of the spectrum is like xAI. But they all have different forms of RLHF trying to make them a certain way.
Although different labs are definitely different levels. On one end of the spectrum is Google, and then maybe OpenAI does less, and Anthropic does less. And then on the other end of the spectrum is like xAI. But they all have different forms of RLHF trying to make them a certain way.
Nathan Lambert
And the important thing to say is that no matter how you want the model to behave, these RLHF and preference-tuning techniques also improve performance. So, on things like math evals and code evals, there is something innate to these, what is called contrastive loss functions. We could start to get into RL here. We don’t really need to. RLHF also boosts performance on anything from a chat task, to a math problem, to a code problem, so it is becoming a much more useful tool to these labs.
And the important thing to say is that no matter how you want the model to behave, these RLHF and preference-tuning techniques also improve performance. So, on things like math evals and code evals, there is something innate to these, what is called contrastive loss functions. We could start to get into RL here. We don’t really need to. RLHF also boosts performance on anything from a chat task, to a math problem, to a code problem, so it is becoming a much more useful tool to these labs.
So this takes us through the arc of… We’ve talked about pre-training, hard to get rid of things. We’ve talked about post-training and how post-training… You can mess it up. It’s a complex multifaceted optimization with 10 to 100 person teams converging at one artifact. It’s really easy to not do it perfectly.
And then there’s the third case, which is what we talked about Gemini. The thing that was about Gemini is this was a served product where Google has their internal model weights. They’ve done all these processes that we talked about, and in the served product, what came out after this was that they had a prompt that they were rewriting user queries to boost diversity or something. And this just made it… The outputs were just blatantly wrong. It was some sort of organizational failure that had this prompt in that position, and I think Google executives probably have owned this. I don’t pay that attention, that detail, but it was just a mess-up in execution that led to this ridiculous thing, but at the system level, the model weights might have been fine.
Lex Fridman
So, at the very end of the pipeline there was a rewriting.
So, at the very end of the pipeline there was a rewriting.
Nathan Lambert
To something like a system prompt. It was like the system prompt, or what is called in industry is, you rewrite prompts. So especially, for image models, if you’re using Dall-E or ChatGPT can generate you an image. You’ll say, “Draw me a beautiful car.” With these leading image models, they benefit from highly descriptive prompts. So what would happen is if you do that on ChatGPT, a language model behind the scenes will rewrite the prompt, say, “Make this more descriptive,” and then that is passed to the image model. So prompt rewriting is something that is used at multiple levels of industry, and it’s used effectively for image models. And the Gemini example is just a failed execution.
To something like a system prompt. It was like the system prompt, or what is called in industry is, you rewrite prompts. So especially, for image models, if you’re using Dall-E or ChatGPT can generate you an image. You’ll say, “Draw me a beautiful car.” With these leading image models, they benefit from highly descriptive prompts. So what would happen is if you do that on ChatGPT, a language model behind the scenes will rewrite the prompt, say, “Make this more descriptive,” and then that is passed to the image model. So prompt rewriting is something that is used at multiple levels of industry, and it’s used effectively for image models. And the Gemini example is just a failed execution.
Lex Fridman
Big philosophical question here with RLHF. So, to generalize, where is human input, human in the loop, human data the most useful at the current stage?
Big philosophical question here with RLHF. So, to generalize, where is human input, human in the loop, human data the most useful at the current stage?
Nathan Lambert
For the past few years, the highest cost human data has been in these preferences, which is comparing, I would say, highest cost and highest total usage, so a lot of money has gone to these pairwise comparisons where you have two model outputs and a human is comparing between the two of them. In earlier years, there was a lot of this instruction tuning data, so creating highly specific examples to something like a Reddit question to a domain that you care about. Language models used to struggle on math and code, so you would pay experts in math and code to come up with questions and write detailed answers that were used to train the models.
For the past few years, the highest cost human data has been in these preferences, which is comparing, I would say, highest cost and highest total usage, so a lot of money has gone to these pairwise comparisons where you have two model outputs and a human is comparing between the two of them. In earlier years, there was a lot of this instruction tuning data, so creating highly specific examples to something like a Reddit question to a domain that you care about. Language models used to struggle on math and code, so you would pay experts in math and code to come up with questions and write detailed answers that were used to train the models.
Now, it is the case that there are many model options that are way better than humans at writing detailed and eloquent answers for things like model and code. So they talked about this with the Llama 3 release, where they switched to using Llama 3, 4, or 5B to write their answers for math and code. But they, in their paper, talk about how they use extensive human preference data, which is something that they haven’t gotten AIs to replace. There are other techniques in industry, like constitutional AI, where you use human data for preferences and AI for preferences, and I expect the AI part to scale faster than the human part. But among the research that we have access to is that humans are in this kind of preference loop.
Lex Fridman
So, as reasoning becomes bigger and bigger and bigger, as we said, where’s the role of humans in that?
So, as reasoning becomes bigger and bigger and bigger, as we said, where’s the role of humans in that?
Nathan Lambert
It’s even less prevalent. The remarkable thing about these reasoning results and especially the DeepSeek-R1 paper, is this result that they call DeepSeek-R1-0, which is they took one of these pre-trained models, they took DeepSeek-V3-Base, and then they do this reinforcement learning optimization on verifiable questions or verifiable rewards for a lot of questions and a lot of training. And these reasoning behaviors emerge naturally. So these things like, “Wait, let me see. Wait, let me check this. Oh, that might be a mistake.” And they emerge from only having questions and answers. And when you’re using the model, the part that you look at is the completion. So in this case, all of that just emerges from this large-scale RL training and that model, which the weights are available, has no human preferences added into the post-training.
It’s even less prevalent. The remarkable thing about these reasoning results and especially the DeepSeek-R1 paper, is this result that they call DeepSeek-R1-0, which is they took one of these pre-trained models, they took DeepSeek-V3-Base, and then they do this reinforcement learning optimization on verifiable questions or verifiable rewards for a lot of questions and a lot of training. And these reasoning behaviors emerge naturally. So these things like, “Wait, let me see. Wait, let me check this. Oh, that might be a mistake.” And they emerge from only having questions and answers. And when you’re using the model, the part that you look at is the completion. So in this case, all of that just emerges from this large-scale RL training and that model, which the weights are available, has no human preferences added into the post-training.
The DeepSeek-R1-Full model has some of this human preference tuning, this RLHF, after the reasoning stage. But the very remarkable thing is that you can get these reasoning behaviors, and it’s very unlikely that there’s humans writing out reasoning chains. It’s very unlikely that they somehow hacked OpenAI and they got access to OpenAI o-1’s reasoning chains. It’s something about the pre-trained language models and this RL training where you reward the model for getting the question right, and therefore it’s trying multiple solutions and it emerges this chain of thought.
Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
Lex Fridman
This might be a good place to mention the eloquent and the insightful tweet of the great and the powerful Andrej Karpathy. I think he had a bunch of thoughts, but one of them, “Last thought. Not sure if this is obvious. You know something profound is coming when you’re saying it’s not sure if it’s obvious. There are two major types of learning in both children and in deep learning. There’s one, imitation learning, watch and repeat i.e. pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and two, trial-and-error learning, reinforcement learning.
This might be a good place to mention the eloquent and the insightful tweet of the great and the powerful Andrej Karpathy. I think he had a bunch of thoughts, but one of them, “Last thought. Not sure if this is obvious. You know something profound is coming when you’re saying it’s not sure if it’s obvious. There are two major types of learning in both children and in deep learning. There’s one, imitation learning, watch and repeat i.e. pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and two, trial-and-error learning, reinforcement learning.
My favorite simple example is AlphaGo. One, is learning by imitating expert players. Two, is reinforcement learning to win the game. Almost every single shocking result of deep learning and the source of all magic is always two.
Two is significantly more powerful. Two is what surprises you. Two is when the paddle learns to hit the ball behind the blocks in Breakout. Two is when AlphaGo beats even Lee Sedol. And two is the “aha moment” when the DeepSeek or o1, et cetera, discovers that it works well to reevaluate your assumptions, backtrack, try something else, et cetera.
It’s the solving strategies you see this model use in its chain of thought. It’s how it goes back and forth thinking to itself. These thoughts are emergent. Three exclamation points. And this is actually seriously incredible, impressive, and new, and is publicly available and documented.
The model could never learn this with the imitation because the cognition of the model and the cognition of the human labeler is different. The human would never know to correctly annotate these kinds of solving strategies and what they should even look like. They have to be discovered during reinforcement learning as empirically and statistically useful towards the final outcome.”
Anyway, the AlphaZero metaphor analogy here. Can you speak to that? The magic of the chain of thought that he’s referring to.
Nathan Lambert
I think it’s good to recap AlphaGo and AlphaZero because it plays nicely with these analogies between imitation learning and learning from scratch. So AlphaGo, the beginning of the process was learning from humans, where they started the first… This is the first expert-level Go player or chess player in DeepMind series of models, where they had some human data. And then, why it is called AlphaZero, is that there was zero human data in the loop, and that changed to AlphaZero made a model that was dramatically more powerful for DeepMind. So this remove of the human prior, the human inductive bias, makes the final system far more powerful. This we mentioned bitter lesson hours ago, and this is all aligned with this.
I think it’s good to recap AlphaGo and AlphaZero because it plays nicely with these analogies between imitation learning and learning from scratch. So AlphaGo, the beginning of the process was learning from humans, where they started the first… This is the first expert-level Go player or chess player in DeepMind series of models, where they had some human data. And then, why it is called AlphaZero, is that there was zero human data in the loop, and that changed to AlphaZero made a model that was dramatically more powerful for DeepMind. So this remove of the human prior, the human inductive bias, makes the final system far more powerful. This we mentioned bitter lesson hours ago, and this is all aligned with this.
And then there’s been a lot of discussion in language models. This is not new. This goes back to the whole Q-Star rumors, which if you piece together the pieces, is probably the start of OpenAI figuring out its o1 stuff when last year in November, the Q-Star rumors came out, there’s a lot of intellectual drive to know when is something like this going to happen with language models? Because we know these models are so powerful, and we know it has been so successful in the past. And it is a reasonable analogy that this new type of reinforcement learning training for reasoning models is when the doors open to this. We don’t yet have the equivalent of turn 37, which is the famous turn where the DeepMind’s AI playing Go’s, dumped Lee Sedol completely. We don’t have something that’s that level of focal point, but that doesn’t mean that the approach to technology is different, and the impact of the general training it’s still incredibly new.
Lex Fridman
What do you think that point would be? What would be move 37 for Chain of Thought for reasoning?
What do you think that point would be? What would be move 37 for Chain of Thought for reasoning?
Nathan Lambert
Scientific discovery, like when you use this sort of reasoning problem in it? Just something we fully don’t expect.
Scientific discovery, like when you use this sort of reasoning problem in it? Just something we fully don’t expect.
Dylan Patel
I think it’s actually probably simpler than that. It’s probably something related to computer use or robotics rather than science discovery. Because the important aspect here is models take so much data to learn. They’re not sample efficient. Trillions. They take the entire web, over 10 trillion tokens to train on. This would take a human thousands of years to read. A human does not… And humans know most of the stuff, a lot of the stuff models know better than it, right? Humans are way, way, way more sample efficient. That is because of the self-play, right? How does a baby learn what its body is as it sticks its foot in its mouth and it says, “Oh, this is my body, right?” It sticks its hand in its mouth and it calibrates its touch on its fingers with the most sensitive touch thing on its tongue is how babies learn and it’s just self-play over and over and over and over again.
I think it’s actually probably simpler than that. It’s probably something related to computer use or robotics rather than science discovery. Because the important aspect here is models take so much data to learn. They’re not sample efficient. Trillions. They take the entire web, over 10 trillion tokens to train on. This would take a human thousands of years to read. A human does not… And humans know most of the stuff, a lot of the stuff models know better than it, right? Humans are way, way, way more sample efficient. That is because of the self-play, right? How does a baby learn what its body is as it sticks its foot in its mouth and it says, “Oh, this is my body, right?” It sticks its hand in its mouth and it calibrates its touch on its fingers with the most sensitive touch thing on its tongue is how babies learn and it’s just self-play over and over and over and over again.
And now we have something that is similar to that with these verifiable proofs, whether it’s a unit testing code or a mathematical verifiable task, generate many traces of reasoning and keep branching them out, keep branching them out, and then check at the end, hey, which one actually has the right answer? Most of them are wrong. Great. These are the few that are right. Maybe we use some sort of reward model outside of this to select even the best one to preference, as well. But now you’ve started to get better and better at these benchmarks. And so you’ve seen over the last six months a skyrocketing in a lot of different benchmarks.
Nathan Lambert
All math and code benchmarks were pretty much solved except for frontier math, which is designed to be almost questions that aren’t practical to most people. They’re exam-level, open math problem-type things. So it’s like on the math problems that are somewhat reasonable, which is somewhat complicated word problems or coding problems, is just what Dylan is saying.
All math and code benchmarks were pretty much solved except for frontier math, which is designed to be almost questions that aren’t practical to most people. They’re exam-level, open math problem-type things. So it’s like on the math problems that are somewhat reasonable, which is somewhat complicated word problems or coding problems, is just what Dylan is saying.
Dylan Patel
So the thing here is that these are only with the verifiable tasks. Earlier showed an example of the really interesting, like what happens when Chain of Thought is to a non-verifiable thing. It’s just like a human chatting, thinking about what’s novel for humans, a unique thought. But this task and form of training only works when it’s verifiable. And from here, the thought is, okay, we can continue to scale this current training method by increasing the number of verifiable tasks. In math and coding… Coding probably has a lot more to go. Math has a lot less to go in terms of what are verifiable things. Can I create a solver that then I generate trajectories toward or reasoning traces towards, and then prune the ones that don’t work, and keep the ones that do work? Well, those are going to be solved pretty quickly. But even if you’ve solved math, you have not actually created intelligence.
So the thing here is that these are only with the verifiable tasks. Earlier showed an example of the really interesting, like what happens when Chain of Thought is to a non-verifiable thing. It’s just like a human chatting, thinking about what’s novel for humans, a unique thought. But this task and form of training only works when it’s verifiable. And from here, the thought is, okay, we can continue to scale this current training method by increasing the number of verifiable tasks. In math and coding… Coding probably has a lot more to go. Math has a lot less to go in terms of what are verifiable things. Can I create a solver that then I generate trajectories toward or reasoning traces towards, and then prune the ones that don’t work, and keep the ones that do work? Well, those are going to be solved pretty quickly. But even if you’ve solved math, you have not actually created intelligence.
And so this is where I think the aha moment of computer use or robotics will come in because now you have a sandbox or a playground that is infinitely verifiable. Messing around on the internet. There are so many actions that you can do that are verifiable. It’ll start off with log into a website, create an account, click a button here, blah, blah, blah. But it’ll then get to the point where it’s, “Hey, go do a task on Tasker,” or whatever, all these various task websites. “Hey, go get hundreds of likes,” and it’s going to fail. It’s going to spawn hundreds of accounts. It’s going to fail on most of them, but this one got to a thousand. Great. Now, you’ve reached the verifiable thing, and you just keep iterating this loop over and over. And same with robotics. That’s where you have an infinite playground of tasks like, “Hey, did I put the ball in the bucket,” all the way to like, “Oh, did I build a car?”
There’s a whole trajectory to speed run or what models can do. But at some point, I truly think that we’ll spawn models, and initially, all the training will be in sandboxes, but then, at some point, the language model pre-training is going to be dwarfed by what is this reinforcement learning… You’ll pre-train a multimodal model that can see, that can read, that can write, blah, blah, blah, whatever, vision, audio, et cetera. But then you’ll have it play in a sandbox infinitely, and figure out math, figure out code, figure out navigating the web, figure out operating a robot arm. And then it’ll learn so much. And the aha moment will be when this is available to then create something that’s not good, right? Oh, cool. Part of it was figuring out how to use the web. Now, all of a sudden, it’s figured out really well how to just get hundreds of thousands of followers that are real and real engagement on Twitter because, all of a sudden, this is one of the things that are verifiable.
Lex Fridman
And maybe not just engagement, but make money.
And maybe not just engagement, but make money.
Dylan Patel
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
That could be the thing where almost fully automated, it makes $10 million by being an influencer, selling a product, creating the product. And I’m not referring to a hype product, but an actual product or like, “Holy, shit, this thing created a business. It’s running it. It’s the face of the business,” that kind of thing. Or maybe a number one song. It creates the whole infrastructure required to create the song, to be the influencer that represents that song, that kind of thing. And makes a lot of them. That could be the… Our culture respects money in that kind of way.
That could be the thing where almost fully automated, it makes $10 million by being an influencer, selling a product, creating the product. And I’m not referring to a hype product, but an actual product or like, “Holy, shit, this thing created a business. It’s running it. It’s the face of the business,” that kind of thing. Or maybe a number one song. It creates the whole infrastructure required to create the song, to be the influencer that represents that song, that kind of thing. And makes a lot of them. That could be the… Our culture respects money in that kind of way.
Dylan Patel
And it’s verifiable, right?
And it’s verifiable, right?
Lex Fridman
It’s verifiable, right?
It’s verifiable, right?
Dylan Patel
The bank account can’t lie.
The bank account can’t lie.
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Nathan Lambert
There’s surprising evidence that once you’ve set up the ways of collecting the verifiable domain that this can work. There’s been a lot of research before this R-1 on math problems, and they approach math with language models just by increasing the number of samples, so you can just try again and again and again. And you look at the amount of times that the language models get it right, and what we see is that even very bad models get it right sometimes. And the whole idea behind reinforcement learning is that you can learn from very sparse rewards.
There’s surprising evidence that once you’ve set up the ways of collecting the verifiable domain that this can work. There’s been a lot of research before this R-1 on math problems, and they approach math with language models just by increasing the number of samples, so you can just try again and again and again. And you look at the amount of times that the language models get it right, and what we see is that even very bad models get it right sometimes. And the whole idea behind reinforcement learning is that you can learn from very sparse rewards.
The space of language and the space of tokens, whether you’re generating language or tasks or robot is so big that you might say that… The tokenizer for a language model can be like 200,000 things, so at each step, it can sample from that big of a space. So if it can generate a bit of a signal that it can climb onto, that’s what the whole field of RL is around, is learning from sparse rewards. And the same thing has played out in math, where it’s very weak models that sometimes generate answers where you see research already that you can boost their math scores, you can do this RL training for math, it might not be as effective, but if you take a 1 billion parameter model, so something 600 times smaller than DeepSeek, you can boost its grade school…
Nathan Lambert
… something 600 times smaller than DeepSeek, you can boost its grade school math scores very directly with a small amount of this training. So, it’s not to say that this is coming soon. Setting up the verification domains is extremely hard and there’s a lot of nuance in this, but there are some basic things that we have seen before where it’s at least expectable that there’s a domain and there’s a chance that this works.
… something 600 times smaller than DeepSeek, you can boost its grade school math scores very directly with a small amount of this training. So, it’s not to say that this is coming soon. Setting up the verification domains is extremely hard and there’s a lot of nuance in this, but there are some basic things that we have seen before where it’s at least expectable that there’s a domain and there’s a chance that this works.
OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
Lex Fridman
All right. So, we have fun things happening in real time. This is a good opportunity to talk about other reasoning models, o1, o3, just now OpenAI, as perhaps expected, released o3-mini. What are we expecting from the different flavors? Can you just lay out the different flavors of the o models and from Gemini, the reasoning model?
All right. So, we have fun things happening in real time. This is a good opportunity to talk about other reasoning models, o1, o3, just now OpenAI, as perhaps expected, released o3-mini. What are we expecting from the different flavors? Can you just lay out the different flavors of the o models and from Gemini, the reasoning model?
Nathan Lambert
Something I would say about these reasoning models is we talked a lot about reasoning training on math and code. And what is done is that you have the base model we’ve talked about a lot on the internet, you do this large scale reasoning training with reinforcement learning, and then what the DeepSeek paper detailed in this R1 paper, which for me is one of the big open questions on how do you do this, is that they did reasoning heavy, but very standard post-training techniques after the large scale reasoning RL. So they did the same things with a form of instruction tuning through rejection sampling, which is essentially heavily filtered instruction tuning with some reward models. And then they did this RLHF, but they made it math heavy.
Something I would say about these reasoning models is we talked a lot about reasoning training on math and code. And what is done is that you have the base model we’ve talked about a lot on the internet, you do this large scale reasoning training with reinforcement learning, and then what the DeepSeek paper detailed in this R1 paper, which for me is one of the big open questions on how do you do this, is that they did reasoning heavy, but very standard post-training techniques after the large scale reasoning RL. So they did the same things with a form of instruction tuning through rejection sampling, which is essentially heavily filtered instruction tuning with some reward models. And then they did this RLHF, but they made it math heavy.
So, some of this transfer, we looked at this philosophical example early on. One of the big open questions is, how much does this transfer? If we bring in domains after the reasoning training, are all the models going to become eloquent writers by reasoning? Is this philosophy stuff going to be open? We don’t know in the research of how much this will transfer. There’s other things about how we can make soft verifiers and things like this, but there is more training after reasoning, which makes it easier to use these reasoning models. And that’s what we’re using right now. So if we’re going to talk about o3-mini and o1, these have gone through these extra techniques that are designed for human preferences after being trained to elicit reasoning.
Dylan Patel
I think one of the things that people are ignoring is Google’s Gemini Flash Thinking is both cheaper than R1 and better, and they released it in the beginning of December-
I think one of the things that people are ignoring is Google’s Gemini Flash Thinking is both cheaper than R1 and better, and they released it in the beginning of December-
Nathan Lambert
And nobody’s talking about it.
And nobody’s talking about it.
Dylan Patel
No one cares-
No one cares-
Nathan Lambert
It has a different flavor to it. Its behavior is less expressive than something like o1 or it has fewer tracks than it is on. Qwen released a model last fall, QwQ, which was their preview reasoning model, and DeepSeek had R1-Lite last fall, where these models kind of felt like they’re on rails where they really, really only can do math and code and o1, it can answer anything. It might not be perfect for some tasks, but it’s flexible, it has some richness to it, and this is kind of the art of is a model a little bit undercooked? It’s good to get a model out the door, but it’s hard to gauge and it takes a lot of taste to be like, is this a full-fledged model? Can I use this for everything? They’re probably more similar for math and code.
It has a different flavor to it. Its behavior is less expressive than something like o1 or it has fewer tracks than it is on. Qwen released a model last fall, QwQ, which was their preview reasoning model, and DeepSeek had R1-Lite last fall, where these models kind of felt like they’re on rails where they really, really only can do math and code and o1, it can answer anything. It might not be perfect for some tasks, but it’s flexible, it has some richness to it, and this is kind of the art of is a model a little bit undercooked? It’s good to get a model out the door, but it’s hard to gauge and it takes a lot of taste to be like, is this a full-fledged model? Can I use this for everything? They’re probably more similar for math and code.
My quick read is that Gemini Flash is not trained the same way as o1, but taking an existing training stack, adding reasoning to it, so taking a more normal training stack and adding reasoning to it, and I’m sure they’re going to have more. I mean they’ve done quick releases on Gemini Flash, reasoning, and this is the second version from the holidays. It’s evolving fast and it takes longer to make this training stack where you’re doing this large scale RL-
Dylan Patel
Ask it the same question from earlier, the one about the-
Ask it the same question from earlier, the one about the-
Nathan Lambert
The human nature.
The human nature.
Dylan Patel
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What was the human nature one?
What was the human nature one?
Nathan Lambert
Why I can ramble about this so much is that we’ve been working on this at AI Tube before o1 was fully available to everyone and before R1, which is essentially using this RL training for fine-tuning. We use this in our Tülu series of models and you can elicit the same behaviors where you say weight and such on, but it’s so late in the training process that this kind of reasoning expression is much lighter. So there’s essentially a gradation and just how much of this RL training you put into it determines how the output looks.
Why I can ramble about this so much is that we’ve been working on this at AI Tube before o1 was fully available to everyone and before R1, which is essentially using this RL training for fine-tuning. We use this in our Tülu series of models and you can elicit the same behaviors where you say weight and such on, but it’s so late in the training process that this kind of reasoning expression is much lighter. So there’s essentially a gradation and just how much of this RL training you put into it determines how the output looks.
Lex Fridman
So, we’re now using Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental 121.
So, we’re now using Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental 121.
Nathan Lambert
It summarized the problem as humans self-domesticated apes.
It summarized the problem as humans self-domesticated apes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right. So, wait, is this reviewing the reasoning? Here’s why this is a novel. Okay.
Okay. All right. So, wait, is this reviewing the reasoning? Here’s why this is a novel. Okay.
Dylan Patel
You can click to expand.
You can click to expand.
Nathan Lambert
Oh, yeah, click to expand.
Oh, yeah, click to expand.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Analyze the request. Novel is the keyword.
Okay. Analyze the request. Novel is the keyword.
Nathan Lambert
See how it just looks a little different? It looks like a normal output.
See how it just looks a little different? It looks like a normal output.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean in some sense, it’s better structured. It makes more sense. And-
Yeah. I mean in some sense, it’s better structured. It makes more sense. And-
Dylan Patel
Oh, and it latched onto human and then it went into organisms and… Oh, wow.
Oh, and it latched onto human and then it went into organisms and… Oh, wow.
Lex Fridman
Apex Predator. Focus on domestication. Apply domestication to humans. Explore the idea of self-domestication.
Apex Predator. Focus on domestication. Apply domestication to humans. Explore the idea of self-domestication.
Nathan Lambert
Not good, not good.
Not good, not good.
Lex Fridman
Where is this going? Refine, articulate the insight. Greater facial expressiveness and communication ability, yes. Plasticity and adaptability, yes. Dependence on social groups, yes. All right. And self-critique, refine further. Wow. Is this truly novel? Is it well-supported? So on and so forth. And the insight it’s getting at is humans are not just social animals but profoundly self-domesticated apes. And this self-domestication is the key to understanding our unique cognitive and social abilities. Self-domesticated apes. Self-domesticated-
Where is this going? Refine, articulate the insight. Greater facial expressiveness and communication ability, yes. Plasticity and adaptability, yes. Dependence on social groups, yes. All right. And self-critique, refine further. Wow. Is this truly novel? Is it well-supported? So on and so forth. And the insight it’s getting at is humans are not just social animals but profoundly self-domesticated apes. And this self-domestication is the key to understanding our unique cognitive and social abilities. Self-domesticated apes. Self-domesticated-
Nathan Lambert
I prefer the DeepSeek response.
I prefer the DeepSeek response.
Lex Fridman
I mean it’s novel. The insight is novel. I mean that’s like a good book title; Self-Domesticated Apes. There could be a case made for that. I mean, yeah, it’s cool and it’s revealing the reasoning. It’s magical. It’s magical. This is really powerful.
I mean it’s novel. The insight is novel. I mean that’s like a good book title; Self-Domesticated Apes. There could be a case made for that. I mean, yeah, it’s cool and it’s revealing the reasoning. It’s magical. It’s magical. This is really powerful.
Hello, everyone, this is Lex with a quick intermission recorded after the podcast since we’ve reviewed responses from DeepSeek R1 and Gemini Flash 2.0 Thinking during this conversation, I thought at this moment it would be nice to insert myself quickly doing the same for OpenAI o1-pro and o3-mini with the same prompt. The prompt being, give one truly novel insight about humans. And I thought I would, in general, give my vibe check and vibe based anecdotal report on my own experiences with the new o3-mini model now that I got a chance to spend many hours with it in different kinds of context and applications.
So, I would probably categorize this question as let’s say open- ended philosophical question. And in particular, the emphasis on novelty I think is a nice way to test one of the capabilities of the model, which is come up with something that makes you pause and almost surprise you with brilliance.
So that said, my general review after running each of the models on this question a bunch of times is that o1-pro consistently gave brilliant answers, ones that gave me pause and made me think, both cutting in its insight and just really nicely phrased with wit, with clarity, with nuance over and over, consistently generating the best answers. After that is R1, which was less consistent, but again, delivered brilliance. Gemini Flash 2.0 Thinking was third and last was o3-mini actually. It often gave quite a generic answer, at least to my particular sensibilities. That said, in a bunch of other applications that I tested for brainstorming purposes, it actually worked extremely well and often outperformed R1. But on this open-ended philosophical question, it did consistently worse.
Now another important element for each of these models is how the reasoning is presented. DeepSeek R1 shows the full chain of thought tokens, which I personally just love. For these open-ended philosophical questions, it’s really, really interesting to see the model think through it, but really also just stepping back, me as a person who appreciates intelligence and reasoning and reflection, reading these kind of chain of thought raw tokens of R1, there’s something genuinely beautiful about observing the path of deliberation in an intelligent system. I think we don’t always have that explicitly laid out for us humans. So, to see it in another intelligence system, the nonlinearity of it akin to the Ulysses, Finnegans Wake by James Joyce. It’s just beautiful to watch.
Anyways, we discussed in the episode DeepSeek R1 talked about humans being able to convert selfish desires into cooperative systems by collectively pretending abstract rules like money laws and rights are real. And these shared hallucinations act as games where competition is secretly redirected to benefit the group turning conflict into society’s fuel. Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking said, “Humans are not just social animals but self-domesticated apes. And this self domestication is the key to understanding our unique cognitive and social abilities.”
Now, it’s important to say that the chain of thought there was really interesting. It was looking through the entire evolution of life on earth considering apex predators and considering how from that, we ended up to where we are. I think that domestication by choice is a really interesting angle. Again, it’s one of those things when somebody presents a different angle on a seemingly obvious thing, it just makes me smile. And the same with DeepSeek R1, that these hallucinations of money laws and rights and us collectively pretending like it’s real and we play games with them that look like competition when secretly we’re just cooperating with each other and that is the fuel of progress. Beautifully put.
Now, OpenAI o1-pro consistently, over and over delivered bangers. I can go through many of them, but the first one was, “Humans are the only species that turns raw materials into symbolic resources. Then uses those symbols to reorganize the very materials that came from creating a closed feedback loop between meaning and matter.” Here, I just ran it again. Banger after banger, I’m telling you. “Humans are unique among known species in that they simultaneously rewrite two layers of reality; the external world and their own private mental landscapes. And then merge these two rewritten layers into a continuous personal narrative that feels objectively true.” Feels true. This is poetry.
Okay. And then o3-mini high, for me, was smart, fast actually, and kind of generic. Never quite got there for me. So here’s the first one I got from o3-mini, “Humans are not fixed beings, but rather ongoing narratives, dynamic stories that we continuously write, edit, and reinterpret. This narrative plasticity is more than just memory or self-reflection. It’s an intrinsic cognitive process that acts like an internal error correction system. It allows us to adapt our identities and values over time in response to new experiences, challenges, and social contexts.” Now, it almost sneaks up to something approximating cutting insight with narrative plasticity in quotes. But then it goes back to the generic. I don’t know.
All of these models are incredible for different reasons. There’s a lot of concerns as we discussed in this episode, but there’s a lot of reasons to be excited as well. And I’ve probably spoken for too long. I am severely sleep-deprived, borderline delirious. So hopefully some of this made sense. And now, dear friends, back to the episode.
Dylan Patel
I think to Nathan’s point, when you look at the reasoning models, to me, even when I used R1 versus o1, there was that sort of rough edges around the corner feeling. And Flash Thinking earlier, I didn’t use this version, but the one from December, and it definitely had that rough edges around the corner feeling where it’s just not fleshed out in as many ways. Sure, they added math and coding capabilities via these verifiers in RL, but it feels like they lost something in certain areas. And o1 is worse performing than Chat in many areas as well, to be clear-
I think to Nathan’s point, when you look at the reasoning models, to me, even when I used R1 versus o1, there was that sort of rough edges around the corner feeling. And Flash Thinking earlier, I didn’t use this version, but the one from December, and it definitely had that rough edges around the corner feeling where it’s just not fleshed out in as many ways. Sure, they added math and coding capabilities via these verifiers in RL, but it feels like they lost something in certain areas. And o1 is worse performing than Chat in many areas as well, to be clear-
Nathan Lambert
Not by a lot.
Not by a lot.
Dylan Patel
Not by a lot though, right? And R1 definitely felt to me like it was worse than V3 in certain areas, like doing this RL expressed and learned a lot, but then it weakened in other areas. And so I think that’s one of the big differences between these models and what one offers. And then OpenAI has o1-pro, and what they did with o3, which is also very unique, is that they stacked search on top of chain of thought. And so chain of thought is one thing where it’s one chain, it backtracks, goes back and forth, but how they solved the ARC-AGI challenge was not just the chain of thought, it was also sampling many times, i.e., running them in parallel and then selecting.
Not by a lot though, right? And R1 definitely felt to me like it was worse than V3 in certain areas, like doing this RL expressed and learned a lot, but then it weakened in other areas. And so I think that’s one of the big differences between these models and what one offers. And then OpenAI has o1-pro, and what they did with o3, which is also very unique, is that they stacked search on top of chain of thought. And so chain of thought is one thing where it’s one chain, it backtracks, goes back and forth, but how they solved the ARC-AGI challenge was not just the chain of thought, it was also sampling many times, i.e., running them in parallel and then selecting.
Nathan Lambert
Is running in parallel actually search? Because I don’t know if we have the full information on how o1-pro works. So, I don’t have enough information-
Is running in parallel actually search? Because I don’t know if we have the full information on how o1-pro works. So, I don’t have enough information-
Dylan Patel
Agreed.
Agreed.
Nathan Lambert
… to confidently say that it is search.
… to confidently say that it is search.
Dylan Patel
It is parallel samples.
It is parallel samples.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. And then what.
Yeah. And then what.
Dylan Patel
And then it selects something.
And then it selects something.
Nathan Lambert
And we don’t know what the selection function is. The reason why we’re debating is because since o1 was announced, there’s been a lot of interest in techniques called Monte Carlo Tree Search, which is where you will break down the chain of thought into intermediate steps. We haven’t defined chain of thought. Chain of thought is from a paper from years ago where you introduced the idea to ask a language model that at the time was much less easy to use, you would say, “Let’s verify step by step,” and it would induce the model to do this bulleted list of steps. Chain of thought is now almost a default in models where if you ask it a math question, you don’t need to tell it to think step by step. And the idea with Monte Carlo Tree Search is that you would take an intermediate point in that train, do some sort of expansion, spend more compute, and then select the right one. That’s a very complex form of search that has been used in things like MuZero and AlphaZero, potentially. I know MuZero does this.
And we don’t know what the selection function is. The reason why we’re debating is because since o1 was announced, there’s been a lot of interest in techniques called Monte Carlo Tree Search, which is where you will break down the chain of thought into intermediate steps. We haven’t defined chain of thought. Chain of thought is from a paper from years ago where you introduced the idea to ask a language model that at the time was much less easy to use, you would say, “Let’s verify step by step,” and it would induce the model to do this bulleted list of steps. Chain of thought is now almost a default in models where if you ask it a math question, you don’t need to tell it to think step by step. And the idea with Monte Carlo Tree Search is that you would take an intermediate point in that train, do some sort of expansion, spend more compute, and then select the right one. That’s a very complex form of search that has been used in things like MuZero and AlphaZero, potentially. I know MuZero does this.
Dylan Patel
Another form of search is just asking five different people and then taking the majority answer. There’s a variety of, it could be complicated, it could be simple. We don’t know what it is, just that they are not just issuing one chain of thought in sequence. They’re launching many in parallel and in the ARC-AGI, they launched a thousand in parallel for the one that really shocked everyone that beat the benchmark was they would launch a thousand in parallel and then they would get the right answer like 80% of the time or 70% of the time, 90 maybe even. Whereas if they just launched one, it was like 30%.
Another form of search is just asking five different people and then taking the majority answer. There’s a variety of, it could be complicated, it could be simple. We don’t know what it is, just that they are not just issuing one chain of thought in sequence. They’re launching many in parallel and in the ARC-AGI, they launched a thousand in parallel for the one that really shocked everyone that beat the benchmark was they would launch a thousand in parallel and then they would get the right answer like 80% of the time or 70% of the time, 90 maybe even. Whereas if they just launched one, it was like 30%.
Nathan Lambert
There are many extensions to this. I would say the simplest one is that our language models to date have been designed to give the right answer the highest percentage of the time in one response. And we are now opening the door to different ways of running inference on our models in which we need to reevaluate many parts of the training process, which normally opens the door to more progress, but we don’t know if OpenAI changed a lot or if just sampling more and multiple choice is what they’re doing or if it’s something more complex, but they changed the training and they know that the inference mode is going to be different.
There are many extensions to this. I would say the simplest one is that our language models to date have been designed to give the right answer the highest percentage of the time in one response. And we are now opening the door to different ways of running inference on our models in which we need to reevaluate many parts of the training process, which normally opens the door to more progress, but we don’t know if OpenAI changed a lot or if just sampling more and multiple choice is what they’re doing or if it’s something more complex, but they changed the training and they know that the inference mode is going to be different.
Lex Fridman
So we’re talking about o1-pro, $200 a month and they’re losing money. The thing that we’re referring to, this fascinating exploration of the test time compute space, is that actually possible? Do we have enough compute for that? Does the financials make sense?
So we’re talking about o1-pro, $200 a month and they’re losing money. The thing that we’re referring to, this fascinating exploration of the test time compute space, is that actually possible? Do we have enough compute for that? Does the financials make sense?
Dylan Patel
So the fantastic thing is, and it’s in the thing that I pulled up earlier, but the cost for GPT-3 has plummeted if you scroll up just a few images, I think. The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we’ll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy. And this is sort of why that reason is. GPT-3 was trained in what? 2020? 2021? And the cost for running inference on it was $60, $70 per million tokens, which was the cost per intelligence was ridiculous. Now as we scaled forward two years, we’ve had a 1200X reduction in cost to achieve the same level of intelligence as GPT-3.
So the fantastic thing is, and it’s in the thing that I pulled up earlier, but the cost for GPT-3 has plummeted if you scroll up just a few images, I think. The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we’ll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy. And this is sort of why that reason is. GPT-3 was trained in what? 2020? 2021? And the cost for running inference on it was $60, $70 per million tokens, which was the cost per intelligence was ridiculous. Now as we scaled forward two years, we’ve had a 1200X reduction in cost to achieve the same level of intelligence as GPT-3.
Lex Fridman
So here on the x-axis is time over just a couple of years, and on the y-axis is log scale dollars to run inference on a million tokens.
So here on the x-axis is time over just a couple of years, and on the y-axis is log scale dollars to run inference on a million tokens.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, it’s dollar to million.
Yeah, it’s dollar to million.
Lex Fridman
So you have just a linear decline on log scale from GPT-3 through 3.5 to Lama-
So you have just a linear decline on log scale from GPT-3 through 3.5 to Lama-
Dylan Patel
It’s like five cents or something like that now, right? Versus $60, 1200X, that’s not the exact numbers, but it’s 1200X, I remember that number, is humongous cost per intelligence. Now, the freak out over DeepSeek is, “Oh my god, they made it so cheap.” It’s like actually, if you look at this trend line, they’re not below the trend line first of all, at least for GPT-3, right? They are the first to hit it, which is a big deal, but they’re not below the trend line as far as GPT-3. Now we have GPT-4, what’s going to happen with these reasoning capabilities? It’s a mix of architectural innovations, it’s a mix of better data, and it’s going to be better training techniques and all of these better inference systems, better hardware going from each generation of GPU to new generations or ASICs.
It’s like five cents or something like that now, right? Versus $60, 1200X, that’s not the exact numbers, but it’s 1200X, I remember that number, is humongous cost per intelligence. Now, the freak out over DeepSeek is, “Oh my god, they made it so cheap.” It’s like actually, if you look at this trend line, they’re not below the trend line first of all, at least for GPT-3, right? They are the first to hit it, which is a big deal, but they’re not below the trend line as far as GPT-3. Now we have GPT-4, what’s going to happen with these reasoning capabilities? It’s a mix of architectural innovations, it’s a mix of better data, and it’s going to be better training techniques and all of these better inference systems, better hardware going from each generation of GPU to new generations or ASICs.
Everything is going to take this cost curve down and down and down and down. And then can I just spawn a thousand different LLMs to create a task and then pick from one of them? Or whatever search technique, I want, a Tree, Monte Carlo Tree Search, maybe it gets that complicated, maybe it doesn’t because it’s too complicated to actually scale. Who knows? Better lesson, right?
The question is, I think, when not if, because the rate of progress is so fast. Nine months ago, Dario said nine months ago the cost to train an inference was this, and now we’re much better than this and DeepSeek is much better than this. And that cost curve for GPT-4, which was also roughly $60 per million tokens when it launched, has already fallen to $2 or so. And we’re going to get it down to cents probably for GPT-4 quality. And then that’s the base for the reasoning models like o1 that we have today and o1-pro is spawning multiple and o3 and so on and so forth, these search techniques, too expensive today, but they will get cheaper and that’s what’s going to unlock the intelligence.
NVIDIA
Lex Fridman
So, it’ll get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. The big DeepSeek R1 release freaked everybody out because of the cheaper. One of the manifestations of that is NVIDIA stock plummeted. Can you explain what happened? And also just explain this moment and if NVIDIA is going to keep winning.
So, it’ll get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. The big DeepSeek R1 release freaked everybody out because of the cheaper. One of the manifestations of that is NVIDIA stock plummeted. Can you explain what happened? And also just explain this moment and if NVIDIA is going to keep winning.
Nathan Lambert
We are both NVIDIA bulls here, I would say. And in some ways, the market response is reasonable. NVIDIA’s biggest customers in the US are major tech companies and they’re spending a ton on AI. And if a simple interpretation of DeepSeek is you can get really good models without spending as much on AI. So in that capacity it’s like, “Oh, maybe these big tech companies won’t need to spend as much in AI and go down.”
We are both NVIDIA bulls here, I would say. And in some ways, the market response is reasonable. NVIDIA’s biggest customers in the US are major tech companies and they’re spending a ton on AI. And if a simple interpretation of DeepSeek is you can get really good models without spending as much on AI. So in that capacity it’s like, “Oh, maybe these big tech companies won’t need to spend as much in AI and go down.”
The actual thing that happened is much more complex where there’s social factors, where there’s the rising in the app store, the social contagion that is happening. And then I think some of it is just like, I don’t trade, I don’t know anything about financial markets, but it builds up over the weekend, the social pressure, where it’s like if it was during the week and there was multiple days of trading when this was really becoming, but it comes on the weekend and then everybody wants to sell, and then that is a social contagion.
Dylan Patel
I think, and there were a lot of false narratives, which is like, “Hey, these guys are spending billions on models,” and they’re not spending billions on models. No one spent more than a billion dollars on a model that’s released publicly. GPT-4 was a couple hundred million and then they’ve reduced the cost with 4o, 4 Turbo, 4o, right? But billion dollar model runs are coming and this concludes pre-training and post-training, right? And then the other number is like, “Hey, DeepSeek didn’t include everything.” They didn’t include a lot of the cost goes to research and all this sort of stuff. A lot of the cost goes to inference. A lot of the cost goes to post-training. None of these things were factored. Research, salaries, all these things are counted in the “billions of dollars” that OpenAI is spending, but they weren’t counted in the, “Hey, $6 million, $5 million that DeepSeek spent.”
I think, and there were a lot of false narratives, which is like, “Hey, these guys are spending billions on models,” and they’re not spending billions on models. No one spent more than a billion dollars on a model that’s released publicly. GPT-4 was a couple hundred million and then they’ve reduced the cost with 4o, 4 Turbo, 4o, right? But billion dollar model runs are coming and this concludes pre-training and post-training, right? And then the other number is like, “Hey, DeepSeek didn’t include everything.” They didn’t include a lot of the cost goes to research and all this sort of stuff. A lot of the cost goes to inference. A lot of the cost goes to post-training. None of these things were factored. Research, salaries, all these things are counted in the “billions of dollars” that OpenAI is spending, but they weren’t counted in the, “Hey, $6 million, $5 million that DeepSeek spent.”
So, there’s a bit of misunderstanding of what these numbers are, and then there’s also an element of… NVIDIA has just been a straight line up and there’s been so many different narratives that have been trying to push down NVIDIA. I don’t say push down NVIDIA stock. Everyone is looking for a reason to sell or to be worried. It was Blackwell delays, right? Their GPU, every two weeks there’s a new report about their GPUs being delayed. There’s the whole thing about scaling laws ending, right? It’s so ironic-
Nathan Lambert
It lasted a month.
It lasted a month.
Dylan Patel
It was literally just, “Hey, models aren’t getting better.” They’re just not getting better. There’s no reason to spend more, pre-training scaling is dead. And then it’s like o1, o3, right?
It was literally just, “Hey, models aren’t getting better.” They’re just not getting better. There’s no reason to spend more, pre-training scaling is dead. And then it’s like o1, o3, right?
Nathan Lambert
R1.
R1.
Dylan Patel
R1, right? And now it’s like, “Wait, models, they’re progressing too fast. Slow down the progress, stop spending on GPUs.” But the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up. H200s are almost out of stock everywhere because H200 has more memory and therefore R1 wants that chip over H100, right?
R1, right? And now it’s like, “Wait, models, they’re progressing too fast. Slow down the progress, stop spending on GPUs.” But the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up. H200s are almost out of stock everywhere because H200 has more memory and therefore R1 wants that chip over H100, right?
Nathan Lambert
We were trying to get GPUs on a short notice this week for a demo and it wasn’t that easy. We were trying to get just 16 or 32 H100s for demo and it was not very easy.
We were trying to get GPUs on a short notice this week for a demo and it wasn’t that easy. We were trying to get just 16 or 32 H100s for demo and it was not very easy.
Lex Fridman
So for people who don’t know, Jevons paradox is when the efficiency goes up, somehow magically, counter intuitively, the total resource consumption goes up as well.
So for people who don’t know, Jevons paradox is when the efficiency goes up, somehow magically, counter intuitively, the total resource consumption goes up as well.
Dylan Patel
And semiconductors is 50 years of Moore’s law, every two years half the cost, double the transistors, just like clockwork and it’s slowed down obviously, but the semiconductor industry has gone up the whole time. It’s been wavy, right? There’s obviously cycles and stuff and I don’t expect AI to be any different. There’s going to be ebbs and flows, but in AI, it’s just playing out at an insane timescale. It was 2X every two years, this is 1200X in like three years. So it’s like the scale of improvement is hard to wrap your head around.
And semiconductors is 50 years of Moore’s law, every two years half the cost, double the transistors, just like clockwork and it’s slowed down obviously, but the semiconductor industry has gone up the whole time. It’s been wavy, right? There’s obviously cycles and stuff and I don’t expect AI to be any different. There’s going to be ebbs and flows, but in AI, it’s just playing out at an insane timescale. It was 2X every two years, this is 1200X in like three years. So it’s like the scale of improvement is hard to wrap your head around.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I was confused because to me, NVIDIA stock on that should have gone up, but maybe it went down because there’s suspicion of foul play on the side of China, something like this. But if you just look purely at the actual principles at play here, it’s obvious. Yeah, the Jevons paradox-
Yeah. I was confused because to me, NVIDIA stock on that should have gone up, but maybe it went down because there’s suspicion of foul play on the side of China, something like this. But if you just look purely at the actual principles at play here, it’s obvious. Yeah, the Jevons paradox-
GPU smuggling
Nathan Lambert
The more progress that AI makes or the higher the derivative of AI progress is, especially because NVIDIA’s in the best place, the higher the derivative is, the sooner the market’s going to be bigger and expanding and NVIDIA’s the only one that does everything reliably right now.
The more progress that AI makes or the higher the derivative of AI progress is, especially because NVIDIA’s in the best place, the higher the derivative is, the sooner the market’s going to be bigger and expanding and NVIDIA’s the only one that does everything reliably right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, because it’s not like an NVIDIA competitor arose. It’s another company that’s using NVIDIA-
Yeah, because it’s not like an NVIDIA competitor arose. It’s another company that’s using NVIDIA-
Nathan Lambert
Who historically has been a large NVIDIA customer.
Who historically has been a large NVIDIA customer.
Dylan Patel
And has press releases about them cheering about being China’s biggest NVIDIA customer, right?
And has press releases about them cheering about being China’s biggest NVIDIA customer, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean-
Yeah. I mean-
Dylan Patel
Obviously they’ve quieted down, but I think that’s another element of it is that they don’t want to say how many GPUs they have because hey, yes, they have H800s, yes, they have H20s, they also have some H100s, right? Which were smuggled in.
Obviously they’ve quieted down, but I think that’s another element of it is that they don’t want to say how many GPUs they have because hey, yes, they have H800s, yes, they have H20s, they also have some H100s, right? Which were smuggled in.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to that, to the smuggling? What’s the scale of smuggling that’s feasible for a nation state to do for companies? Is it possible to-
Can you speak to that, to the smuggling? What’s the scale of smuggling that’s feasible for a nation state to do for companies? Is it possible to-
Dylan Patel
I think there’s a few angles of “smuggling” here, right? One is ByteDance, arguably is the largest smuggler of GPUs for China. China’s not supposed to have GPUs. ByteDance has over 500,000 GPUs. Why? Because they’re all rented from companies around the world. They rent from Oracle, they rent from Google, they rent from all these, and a bunch of smaller cloud companies too, right? All the “neoClouds” of the world. They rent so, so many GPUs. They also buy a bunch. And they do this for mostly what Meta does, right? Serving TikTok, right? Serving next best-
I think there’s a few angles of “smuggling” here, right? One is ByteDance, arguably is the largest smuggler of GPUs for China. China’s not supposed to have GPUs. ByteDance has over 500,000 GPUs. Why? Because they’re all rented from companies around the world. They rent from Oracle, they rent from Google, they rent from all these, and a bunch of smaller cloud companies too, right? All the “neoClouds” of the world. They rent so, so many GPUs. They also buy a bunch. And they do this for mostly what Meta does, right? Serving TikTok, right? Serving next best-
Nathan Lambert
Separate discussion.
Separate discussion.
Dylan Patel
Same as Meta, right? To be clear, today, that’s the use, right? And it’s a valid use, right? Hack the dopamine circuit. Now, that’s theoretically now very much restricted with the AI diffusion rules, which happened in the last week of the Biden admin, and Trump admin looks like they’re going to keep them, which limits allies even, like Singapore, which Singapore is 20%, 30% of NVIDIA’s revenue, but Singapore’s had a memoratorium on not building data centers for 15 years because they don’t have enough power. So, where are they going?
Same as Meta, right? To be clear, today, that’s the use, right? And it’s a valid use, right? Hack the dopamine circuit. Now, that’s theoretically now very much restricted with the AI diffusion rules, which happened in the last week of the Biden admin, and Trump admin looks like they’re going to keep them, which limits allies even, like Singapore, which Singapore is 20%, 30% of NVIDIA’s revenue, but Singapore’s had a memoratorium on not building data centers for 15 years because they don’t have enough power. So, where are they going?
Nathan Lambert
Oh my God.
Oh my God.
Dylan Patel
I’m not claiming they’re all going to China, but a portion, many are going to Malaysia, including Microsoft and Oracle have big data centers in Malaysia. They’re going all over Southeast Asia probably, India as well. There’s stuff routing, but the diffusion rules are very de facto, like you can only buy this many GPUs from this country and you can only rent a cluster this large to companies that are Chinese. They’re very explicit on trying to stop smuggling.
I’m not claiming they’re all going to China, but a portion, many are going to Malaysia, including Microsoft and Oracle have big data centers in Malaysia. They’re going all over Southeast Asia probably, India as well. There’s stuff routing, but the diffusion rules are very de facto, like you can only buy this many GPUs from this country and you can only rent a cluster this large to companies that are Chinese. They’re very explicit on trying to stop smuggling.
And a big chunk of it was, hey, random company buys 16 servers, ships them to China. There’s actually, I saw a photo from someone in the semiconductor industry who leads a team for networking chips that competes with NVIDIA, and he sent a photo of a guy checking into a first class United flight from San Francisco to Shanghai or Shenzhen with a super micro box that was this big, which can only contain GPUs, right? And he was booking first class because think about it, 3K to 5K for your first class ticket, server costs $240,000 in the US, $250,000, you sell it for $300,000 in China. Wait, you just got a free first class ticket and a lot more money. So it’s like… And that’s small scale smuggling. Most of the large scale smuggling is companies in Singapore and Malaysia routing them around or renting GPUs, completely legally-
Nathan Lambert
I want to jump in. How much does this scale? I think there’s been some people that are higher level economics understanding say that as you go from 1 billion of smuggling to 10 billion, it’s like you’re hiding certain levels of economic activity and that’s the most reasonable thing to me is that there’s going to be some level where it’s so obvious that it’s easier to find this economic activity. And-
I want to jump in. How much does this scale? I think there’s been some people that are higher level economics understanding say that as you go from 1 billion of smuggling to 10 billion, it’s like you’re hiding certain levels of economic activity and that’s the most reasonable thing to me is that there’s going to be some level where it’s so obvious that it’s easier to find this economic activity. And-
Dylan Patel
Yeah. So, my belief is that last year roughly, so NVIDIA made a million H20s, which are legally allowed to be shipped to China, which we talked about is better for reasoning, inference at least, not training, but reasoning inference and inference generally. Then they also had a couple hundred thousand, we think like 200,000 to 300,000 GPUs were routed to China from Singapore, Malaysia, US, wherever. Companies spawn up, buy 16 GPUs, 64 GPUs, whatever it is, route it, and Huawei is known for having spent up a massive network of companies to get the materials they need after they were banned in 2018. So, it’s not otherworldly, but I agree, right? Nathan’s point is like, hey, you can’t smuggle $10 billion of GPUs.
Yeah. So, my belief is that last year roughly, so NVIDIA made a million H20s, which are legally allowed to be shipped to China, which we talked about is better for reasoning, inference at least, not training, but reasoning inference and inference generally. Then they also had a couple hundred thousand, we think like 200,000 to 300,000 GPUs were routed to China from Singapore, Malaysia, US, wherever. Companies spawn up, buy 16 GPUs, 64 GPUs, whatever it is, route it, and Huawei is known for having spent up a massive network of companies to get the materials they need after they were banned in 2018. So, it’s not otherworldly, but I agree, right? Nathan’s point is like, hey, you can’t smuggle $10 billion of GPUs.
And then the third source, which is just now banned, which wasn’t considered smuggling, but is China is renting, I believe from our research, Oracle’s biggest GPU customer is ByteDance. And for Google, I think it’s their second-biggest customer. And you go down the list of clouds and especially these smaller cloud companies that aren’t the “hyperscalers,” think beyond CoreWeave and Lambda even, there’s 60 different new cloud companies serving NVIDIA GPUs. I think ByteDance is renting a lot of these, all over it, right?
And so these companies are renting GPUs to Chinese companies, and that was completely legal up until the diffusion rules, which happened just a few weeks ago. And even now, you can rent GPU clusters that are less than 2,000 GPUs, or you can buy GPUs and ship them wherever you want if there are less than 1,500 GPUs. There are still some ways to smuggle, but yeah, as the numbers grow a hundred something billion dollars of revenue for NVIDIA last year, 200 something billion this year, and if next year, it could nearly double again or more than double based on what we see with data center footprints being built out all across the US and the rest of the world, it’s going to be really hard for China to keep up with these rules.
Yes, there will always be smuggling and DeepSeek level models, GPT-4 level models, o1 level models capable to train on what China can get, even the next tier above that. But if we speed run a couple more jumps to billion dollar models, $10 billion models, then it becomes, “Hey, there is a compute disadvantage for China for training models and serving them.” And the serving part is really critical, right? DeepSeek cannot serve their model today. It’s completely out of inventory. It’s already started falling in the app store actually, downloads, because you download it, you try and sign up, they say, “We’re not taking registrations,” because they have no capacity. You open it up, you get less than five tokens per second, if you even get your request approved, right? Because there’s just no capacity because they just don’t have enough GPUs to serve the model, even though it’s incredibly efficient.
Lex Fridman
It’d be fascinating to watch the smuggling. Because I mean there’s drug smuggling, right? That’s a market. There’s weapons smuggling. And GPUs will surpass that at some point.
It’d be fascinating to watch the smuggling. Because I mean there’s drug smuggling, right? That’s a market. There’s weapons smuggling. And GPUs will surpass that at some point.
Nathan Lambert
Chips are highest value per kilogram probably by far. I have another question for you, Dylan. Do you track model API access internationally? How easy is it for Chinese companies to use hosted model APIs from the US?
Chips are highest value per kilogram probably by far. I have another question for you, Dylan. Do you track model API access internationally? How easy is it for Chinese companies to use hosted model APIs from the US?
DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
Dylan Patel
Yeah. I mean that’s incredibly easy, right? OpenAI publicly stated DeepSeek uses their API and they say they have evidence, right? And this is another element of the training regime, is people at OpenAI have claimed that it’s a distilled model, i.e., you’re taking OpenAI’s model, you’re generating a lot of output, and then you’re training on the output in their model. And even if that’s the case, what they did is still amazing by the way, what DeepSeek did, efficiency-wise.
Yeah. I mean that’s incredibly easy, right? OpenAI publicly stated DeepSeek uses their API and they say they have evidence, right? And this is another element of the training regime, is people at OpenAI have claimed that it’s a distilled model, i.e., you’re taking OpenAI’s model, you’re generating a lot of output, and then you’re training on the output in their model. And even if that’s the case, what they did is still amazing by the way, what DeepSeek did, efficiency-wise.
Nathan Lambert
Distillation is standard practice in industry. Whether or not, if you’re at a closed lab where you care about terms of service and IP closely, you distill from your own models. If you are a researcher and you’re not building any products, you distill from the OpenAI models-
Distillation is standard practice in industry. Whether or not, if you’re at a closed lab where you care about terms of service and IP closely, you distill from your own models. If you are a researcher and you’re not building any products, you distill from the OpenAI models-
Lex Fridman
This is a good opportunity. Can you explain big picture distillation as a process? What is distillation? What’s the process of distillation?
This is a good opportunity. Can you explain big picture distillation as a process? What is distillation? What’s the process of distillation?
Nathan Lambert
We’ve talked a lot about training language models. They are trained on text and post-training, you’re trying to train on very high-quality texts that you want the model to match the features of, or if you’re using RL, you’re letting the model find its own thing. But for supervised fine-tuning, for preference data, you need to have some completions, what the model is trying to learn to imitate. And what you do there is instead of a human data or instead of the model you’re currently training, you take completions from a different, normally more powerful, model. I think there’s rumors that these big models that people are waiting for, these GPT-5s of the world, the Claude 3 Opuses of the world are used internally to do this distillation process at OpenAI-
We’ve talked a lot about training language models. They are trained on text and post-training, you’re trying to train on very high-quality texts that you want the model to match the features of, or if you’re using RL, you’re letting the model find its own thing. But for supervised fine-tuning, for preference data, you need to have some completions, what the model is trying to learn to imitate. And what you do there is instead of a human data or instead of the model you’re currently training, you take completions from a different, normally more powerful, model. I think there’s rumors that these big models that people are waiting for, these GPT-5s of the world, the Claude 3 Opuses of the world are used internally to do this distillation process at OpenAI-
Dylan Patel
There’s also public examples, right? Like Meta explicitly stated, not necessarily distilling, but they used 405B as a reward model for 70B in their Llama 3.2 or 3.3 rule-
There’s also public examples, right? Like Meta explicitly stated, not necessarily distilling, but they used 405B as a reward model for 70B in their Llama 3.2 or 3.3 rule-
Nathan Lambert
Yes. This is all the same topic.
Yes. This is all the same topic.
Lex Fridman
So, is this ethical? Is this legal? Why is that Financial Times article headline say, “OpenAI says that there’s evidence that China’s DeepSeek used its model to train competitor.”
So, is this ethical? Is this legal? Why is that Financial Times article headline say, “OpenAI says that there’s evidence that China’s DeepSeek used its model to train competitor.”
Nathan Lambert
This is a long, at least in the academic side and research side, it has a long history because you’re trying to interpret OpenAI’s rule. OpenAI’s terms of service say that you cannot build a competitor with outputs from their models. Terms of service are different than a license, which are essentially a contract between organizations. So if you have a terms of service on OpenAI’s account, if I violate it, OpenAI can cancel my account. This is very different than a license that says how you could use a downstream artifact. So a lot of it hinges on a word that is very unclear in the AI space, which is, what is a competitor?
This is a long, at least in the academic side and research side, it has a long history because you’re trying to interpret OpenAI’s rule. OpenAI’s terms of service say that you cannot build a competitor with outputs from their models. Terms of service are different than a license, which are essentially a contract between organizations. So if you have a terms of service on OpenAI’s account, if I violate it, OpenAI can cancel my account. This is very different than a license that says how you could use a downstream artifact. So a lot of it hinges on a word that is very unclear in the AI space, which is, what is a competitor?
Dylan Patel
And then the ethical aspect of it is like, why is it unethical for me to train on your model when you can train on the internet’s text? Right?
And then the ethical aspect of it is like, why is it unethical for me to train on your model when you can train on the internet’s text? Right?
Lex Fridman
So there’s a bit of a hypocrisy because OpenAI and potentially most of the companies trained on the internet’s text without permission.
So there’s a bit of a hypocrisy because OpenAI and potentially most of the companies trained on the internet’s text without permission.
Nathan Lambert
There’s also a clear loophole, which is that I generate data from OpenAI and then I upload it somewhere and then somebody else trains on it and the link has been broken. They’re not under the same terms of service contract.
There’s also a clear loophole, which is that I generate data from OpenAI and then I upload it somewhere and then somebody else trains on it and the link has been broken. They’re not under the same terms of service contract.
Dylan Patel
This is why-
This is why-
Nathan Lambert
There’s a lot of… There’s a lot of to be discovered details that don’t make a lot of sense.
There’s a lot of… There’s a lot of to be discovered details that don’t make a lot of sense.
Dylan Patel
This is why a lot of models today, even if they train on zero OpenAI data, you ask the model, “Who trained you?” It’ll say, “I’m ChatGPT trained by OpenAI,” because there’s so much copy paste of OpenAI outputs from that on the internet that you just weren’t able to filter it out and there was nothing in the RL where they implemented or post-training or SFT, whatever, that says, “Hey, I’m actually a model by Allen Institute instead of OpenAI.”
This is why a lot of models today, even if they train on zero OpenAI data, you ask the model, “Who trained you?” It’ll say, “I’m ChatGPT trained by OpenAI,” because there’s so much copy paste of OpenAI outputs from that on the internet that you just weren’t able to filter it out and there was nothing in the RL where they implemented or post-training or SFT, whatever, that says, “Hey, I’m actually a model by Allen Institute instead of OpenAI.”
Nathan Lambert
We have to do this if we serve a demo. We do research and we use OpenAI APIs because it’s useful and we want to understand post-training and our research models, they all say they’re written by OpenAI unless we put in the system prop that we talked about that, “I am Tülu. I am a language model trained by the Allen Institute for AI.” And if you ask more people around industry, especially with post-training, it’s a very doable task to make the model say who it is or to suppress the OpenAI thing. So in some levels, it might be that DeepSeek didn’t care that it was saying that it was by OpenAI. If you’re going to upload model weights, it doesn’t really matter because anyone that’s serving it in an application and cares a lot about serving is going to, when serving it, if they’re using it for a specific task, they’re going to tailor it to that and it doesn’t matter that it’s saying it’s ChatGPT.
We have to do this if we serve a demo. We do research and we use OpenAI APIs because it’s useful and we want to understand post-training and our research models, they all say they’re written by OpenAI unless we put in the system prop that we talked about that, “I am Tülu. I am a language model trained by the Allen Institute for AI.” And if you ask more people around industry, especially with post-training, it’s a very doable task to make the model say who it is or to suppress the OpenAI thing. So in some levels, it might be that DeepSeek didn’t care that it was saying that it was by OpenAI. If you’re going to upload model weights, it doesn’t really matter because anyone that’s serving it in an application and cares a lot about serving is going to, when serving it, if they’re using it for a specific task, they’re going to tailor it to that and it doesn’t matter that it’s saying it’s ChatGPT.
Lex Fridman
Oh, I guess one of the ways to do that is like a system prompt or something like that? If you’re serving it to say that you’re-
Oh, I guess one of the ways to do that is like a system prompt or something like that? If you’re serving it to say that you’re-
Nathan Lambert
That’s what we do. If we host a demo, you say, “You are Tülu 3, a language model trained by the Allen Institute for AI.” We also are benefited…
That’s what we do. If we host a demo, you say, “You are Tülu 3, a language model trained by the Allen Institute for AI.” We also are benefited…
Nathan Lambert
… model trained by the Allen Institute for AI. We also are benefited from OpenAI data because it’s a great research tool.
… model trained by the Allen Institute for AI. We also are benefited from OpenAI data because it’s a great research tool.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s any truth and value to the OpenAI’s claim that there’s evidence that China’s DeepSeek used this model to train?
Do you think there’s any truth and value to the OpenAI’s claim that there’s evidence that China’s DeepSeek used this model to train?
Dylan Patel
I think everyone has benefited regardless because the data’s on the internet. And therefore, it’s in your per training now. There are subreddits where people share the best ChatGPT outputs, and those are in your model-
I think everyone has benefited regardless because the data’s on the internet. And therefore, it’s in your per training now. There are subreddits where people share the best ChatGPT outputs, and those are in your model-
Nathan Lambert
I think that they’re trying to shift the narrative. They’re trying to protect themselves. We saw this years ago when ByteDance was actually banned from some OpenAI APIs for training on outputs. There’s other AI startups that most people, if you’re in the AI culture, were like they just told us they trained on OpenAI outputs and they never got banned. That’s how they bootstrapped their early models.
I think that they’re trying to shift the narrative. They’re trying to protect themselves. We saw this years ago when ByteDance was actually banned from some OpenAI APIs for training on outputs. There’s other AI startups that most people, if you’re in the AI culture, were like they just told us they trained on OpenAI outputs and they never got banned. That’s how they bootstrapped their early models.
So, it’s much easier to get off the ground using this than to set up human pipelines and build a strong model. So there’s long history here, and a lot of the communications are seem like narrative [inaudible 03:31:00].
Dylan Patel
Actually, over the last couple of days, we’ve seen a lot of people distill DeepSeek’s model into Llama models, because the DeepSeek models are complicated to run inference on because they’re mixture of experts and they’re 600 plus billion parameters and all of this. And people distilled them into the Llama models because the Llama models are so easy to serve, and everyone’s built the pipelines and tooling for inference with the Llama models because it’s the open standard.
Actually, over the last couple of days, we’ve seen a lot of people distill DeepSeek’s model into Llama models, because the DeepSeek models are complicated to run inference on because they’re mixture of experts and they’re 600 plus billion parameters and all of this. And people distilled them into the Llama models because the Llama models are so easy to serve, and everyone’s built the pipelines and tooling for inference with the Llama models because it’s the open standard.
So, we’ve seen a sort of roundabout. Is it bad? Is it illegal? Maybe it’s illegal, whatever. I don’t know about that, but-
Nathan Lambert
It could break contracts. I don’t think it’s illegal in any legal… No one’s going to jail for this, ever.
It could break contracts. I don’t think it’s illegal in any legal… No one’s going to jail for this, ever.
Lex Fridman
Fundamentally, I think it’s ethical, or I hope it’s ethical because the moment it becomes… We ban that kind of thing, it’s going to make everybody much worse off. And I also, actually…
Fundamentally, I think it’s ethical, or I hope it’s ethical because the moment it becomes… We ban that kind of thing, it’s going to make everybody much worse off. And I also, actually…
This is difficult, but I think you should be allowed to train on the internet. I know a lot of authors and creators are very sensitive about it. That’s a difficult question. But the moment you’re not allowed to train on the internet-
Nathan Lambert
I agree.
I agree.
Dylan Patel
I have a schizo take on how you can solve this. Because it already works.
I have a schizo take on how you can solve this. Because it already works.
Lex Fridman
All right.
All right.
Nathan Lambert
I have a reasonable take out of it.
I have a reasonable take out of it.
Lex Fridman
All right, [inaudible 03:32:10].
All right, [inaudible 03:32:10].
Dylan Patel
So, Japan has a law which you’re allowed to train on any training data and copyrights don’t apply if you want to train a model, A. B, Japan has 9 gigawatts of curtailed nuclear power. C, Japan is allowed under the AI diffusion rule to import as many GPUs as they’d like. So, all we have to do…
So, Japan has a law which you’re allowed to train on any training data and copyrights don’t apply if you want to train a model, A. B, Japan has 9 gigawatts of curtailed nuclear power. C, Japan is allowed under the AI diffusion rule to import as many GPUs as they’d like. So, all we have to do…
We have a market here to make. We build massive data centers, we rent them to the labs, and then we train models in a legally permissible way, and there’s no ifs, ands, or buts. And now, the models have no potential copyright lawsuit from New York Times or anything like that. No, it’s just completely legal.
Nathan Lambert
Now, so-
Now, so-
Lex Fridman
Genius.
Genius.
Nathan Lambert
… the early copyright lawsuits have fallen in the favor of AI training. I would say that the long tail of use is going to go inside of AI, which is if you scrape trillions of tokens of data, you’re not looking and saying, “This one New York Times article is so important to me.” But if you’re doing a audio generation for music or image generation, and you say, “Make it in the style of X person,” that’s a reasonable case where you could figure out what is their profit margin on inference. I don’t know if it’s going to be the 50/50 of YouTube Creator Program or something, but I would opt into that program as a writer, please.
… the early copyright lawsuits have fallen in the favor of AI training. I would say that the long tail of use is going to go inside of AI, which is if you scrape trillions of tokens of data, you’re not looking and saying, “This one New York Times article is so important to me.” But if you’re doing a audio generation for music or image generation, and you say, “Make it in the style of X person,” that’s a reasonable case where you could figure out what is their profit margin on inference. I don’t know if it’s going to be the 50/50 of YouTube Creator Program or something, but I would opt into that program as a writer, please.
It’s going to be a rough journey, but there will be some solutions like that that makes sense. But there’s a long tail where it’s just on the internet.
Lex Fridman
I think one of the other aspects of that Financial Times article implied, and so that leads to a more general question. Do you think there’s… How difficult is spying, espionage, and stealing of actual secret code and data from inside of companies? How much of that is being attempted?
I think one of the other aspects of that Financial Times article implied, and so that leads to a more general question. Do you think there’s… How difficult is spying, espionage, and stealing of actual secret code and data from inside of companies? How much of that is being attempted?
Nathan Lambert
Code and data is hard, but ideas is easy. Silicon Valley operates on the way that top employees get bought out by other companies for a pay raise, and a large reason why these companies do this is to bring ideas with them. And there’s no… I mean, in California, there’s rules that certain non-competes or whatever are illegal in California. And whether or not there’s NDAs and things, that is how a lot of it happens. Recently, there was somebody from Gemini who helped make this 1 million context length. And everyone is saying the next Llama who, he went to the Meta team, is going to have 1 million context length. And that’s kind of how the world works.
Code and data is hard, but ideas is easy. Silicon Valley operates on the way that top employees get bought out by other companies for a pay raise, and a large reason why these companies do this is to bring ideas with them. And there’s no… I mean, in California, there’s rules that certain non-competes or whatever are illegal in California. And whether or not there’s NDAs and things, that is how a lot of it happens. Recently, there was somebody from Gemini who helped make this 1 million context length. And everyone is saying the next Llama who, he went to the Meta team, is going to have 1 million context length. And that’s kind of how the world works.
Dylan Patel
As far as industrial espionage and things, that has been greatly successful in the past. The Americans did it to the Brits, the Chinese have done it to the Americans, and so on and so forth. It is a fact of life. And so, to argue industrial espionage can be stopped is probably unlikely. You can make it difficult. But even then, there’s all these stories about like, “Hey, F35 and F22 have already been given to China in terms of design plans and stuff.”
As far as industrial espionage and things, that has been greatly successful in the past. The Americans did it to the Brits, the Chinese have done it to the Americans, and so on and so forth. It is a fact of life. And so, to argue industrial espionage can be stopped is probably unlikely. You can make it difficult. But even then, there’s all these stories about like, “Hey, F35 and F22 have already been given to China in terms of design plans and stuff.”
Code and stuff between, I say companies, not nation states, is probably very difficult. But ideas are discussed a lot, whether it be a house party in San Francisco or a company changing employees or always the mythical honeypot that always gets talked about. Someone gets honeypotted because everyone working on AI is a single dude who’s in their 20s and 30s. Not everyone, but insane amount of… Insane percentages. So, there’s always all these… And obviously-
Lex Fridman
So, honeypotted is like a female spy approaches you and…
So, honeypotted is like a female spy approaches you and…
Dylan Patel
Yeah. Or male, right? It’s San Francisco. But as a single dude, I will say in his late 20s, we are very easily corrupted. Not corrupted myself, but we are. Right?
Yeah. Or male, right? It’s San Francisco. But as a single dude, I will say in his late 20s, we are very easily corrupted. Not corrupted myself, but we are. Right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Everybody else. Not me.
Yeah. Everybody else. Not me.
Nathan Lambert
I’m too oblivious that I am not single, so I’m safe from one espionage access.
I’m too oblivious that I am not single, so I’m safe from one espionage access.
AI megaclusters
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You have to make sure to close all security vulnerabilities. So you, Dylan, collect a lot of information about each of the mega clusters for each of the major AI companies. Can you talk about the buildouts for each one that stand out?
Yeah. You have to make sure to close all security vulnerabilities. So you, Dylan, collect a lot of information about each of the mega clusters for each of the major AI companies. Can you talk about the buildouts for each one that stand out?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. I think the thing that’s really important about these mega cluster buildouts is they’re completely unprecedented in scale. US data center power consumption has been slowly on the rise and it’s gone up to 2, 3% even through the cloud computing revolution. Data center consumption has a percentage of total US, and that’s been over decades of data centers, etc. It’s been climbing slowly, but now, 2 to 3%.
Yeah. I think the thing that’s really important about these mega cluster buildouts is they’re completely unprecedented in scale. US data center power consumption has been slowly on the rise and it’s gone up to 2, 3% even through the cloud computing revolution. Data center consumption has a percentage of total US, and that’s been over decades of data centers, etc. It’s been climbing slowly, but now, 2 to 3%.
Now, by the end of this decade, it’s… Even under… When I say 10%, a lot of people that are traditionally by 2028 to 2030, people traditionally non-traditional data center people, that’s nuts. But then, people who are in AI who have really looked at this like the Anthropics and OpenAI’s, are like, “That’s not enough.”
And I’m like, “Okay.” But this is both through globally distributed or distributed throughout the US as well as centralized clusters. The distributed throughout the US is exciting and it’s the bulk of it. Like, hey, OpenAI or, say, Meta’s adding a gigawatt, but most of it is distributed through the US for inference and all these other things.
Lex Fridman
So maybe, we should lay out what a cluster is. So, does this include AWS? Maybe, it’s good to talk about the different kinds of clusters. What you mean by mega clusters? What’s the GPU and what’s a compute or… And what [inaudible 03:37:41]-
So maybe, we should lay out what a cluster is. So, does this include AWS? Maybe, it’s good to talk about the different kinds of clusters. What you mean by mega clusters? What’s the GPU and what’s a compute or… And what [inaudible 03:37:41]-
Dylan Patel
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Not that far back, but yeah. So, what do we mean by the clusters? The buildouts?
Not that far back, but yeah. So, what do we mean by the clusters? The buildouts?
Dylan Patel
Oh, man. I thought I was about to do the Apple ad, what’s a computer? So traditionally, data centers and data center tasks have been a distributed systems problem that is capable of being spread very far and widely. I.e, I send a request to Google, it gets routed to a data center somewhat close to me, it does whatever search ranking recommendation, sends a result back. The nature of the task is changing rapidly in that the task, there’s two tasks that people are really focused on now. It’s not database access. It’s not, “Serve me the right page, serve me the right ad.”
Oh, man. I thought I was about to do the Apple ad, what’s a computer? So traditionally, data centers and data center tasks have been a distributed systems problem that is capable of being spread very far and widely. I.e, I send a request to Google, it gets routed to a data center somewhat close to me, it does whatever search ranking recommendation, sends a result back. The nature of the task is changing rapidly in that the task, there’s two tasks that people are really focused on now. It’s not database access. It’s not, “Serve me the right page, serve me the right ad.”
It’s now, a inference. An inference is dramatically different from traditional distributed systems, but it looks a lot more simple, similar. And then, there’s training. The inference side is still like, “Hey, I’m going to put thousands of GPUs in blocks all around these data centers.” I’m going to run models on them. User submits a request, it gets kicked off. Or hey, my service. They submit a request to my service. They’re on Word and they’re like, “Oh yeah, help me, Copilot,” and it kicks it off. Or I’m on my windows, Copilot, whatever, Apple intelligence. Whatever it is, it gets kicked off to a data center. That data center does some work and sends it back. That’s inference. That is going to be the bulk of compute, but then…
And that’s like, there’s thousands of data centers that we’re tracking with satellites and all these other things, and those are the bulk of what’s being built. But the scale of… And so, that’s what’s really reshaping and that’s what’s getting millions of GPUs. But the scale of the largest cluster is also really important. When we look back at history or through the age of AI, it was a really big deal when they did AlexNet on, I think, 2 GPUs or 4 GPUs. I don’t remember. It’s a really big deal.
Nathan Lambert
It’s a big deal because you use GPUs.
It’s a big deal because you use GPUs.
Dylan Patel
It’s a big deal that they use GPUs and they use multiple. But then over time, its scale has just been compounding. And so when you skip forward to GPT-3, then GPT-4, GPT-4 20,000 A100 GPUs. Unprecedented run in terms of the size and the cost, right? A couple of hundred million dollars on a YOLO run for GPT-4, and it yielded this magical improvement that was perfectly in line with what was experimented and just a log scale right up.
It’s a big deal that they use GPUs and they use multiple. But then over time, its scale has just been compounding. And so when you skip forward to GPT-3, then GPT-4, GPT-4 20,000 A100 GPUs. Unprecedented run in terms of the size and the cost, right? A couple of hundred million dollars on a YOLO run for GPT-4, and it yielded this magical improvement that was perfectly in line with what was experimented and just a log scale right up.
Nathan Lambert
Oh yeah, they had that plot from the paper.
Oh yeah, they had that plot from the paper.
Dylan Patel
The scaling of the technical part. The scaling laws were perfect, right? But that’s not a crazy number. 20,000 A100’s, roughly, each GPU is consuming 400 watts. And then when you add in the whole server, everything, it’s like 15 to 20 megawatts of power. Maybe, you could look up what the power of consumption of a person is because the numbers are going to get silly, but 15 to 20 megawatts was standard data center size. It was just unprecedented that was all GPUs running one task.
The scaling of the technical part. The scaling laws were perfect, right? But that’s not a crazy number. 20,000 A100’s, roughly, each GPU is consuming 400 watts. And then when you add in the whole server, everything, it’s like 15 to 20 megawatts of power. Maybe, you could look up what the power of consumption of a person is because the numbers are going to get silly, but 15 to 20 megawatts was standard data center size. It was just unprecedented that was all GPUs running one task.
Nathan Lambert
How many watts is a toaster?
How many watts is a toaster?
Dylan Patel
A toaster has also-
A toaster has also-
Nathan Lambert
That’s a good example.
That’s a good example.
Dylan Patel
… a similar power consumption to an A100. H100 comes around. They increase the power from 400 to 700 watts and that’s just per GPU, and then there’s all the associated stuff around it. So once you count all of that, it’s roughly 1,200 to 1,400 watts for everything. Networking, CPUs, memory, blah, blah, blah.
… a similar power consumption to an A100. H100 comes around. They increase the power from 400 to 700 watts and that’s just per GPU, and then there’s all the associated stuff around it. So once you count all of that, it’s roughly 1,200 to 1,400 watts for everything. Networking, CPUs, memory, blah, blah, blah.
Lex Fridman
So we should also say, what’s required, you said power. So, a lot of power is required. A lot of heat is generated, so the cooling is required. And because there’s a lot of GPUs or CPUs or whatever, they have to be connected. So, there’s a lot of networking, right?
So we should also say, what’s required, you said power. So, a lot of power is required. A lot of heat is generated, so the cooling is required. And because there’s a lot of GPUs or CPUs or whatever, they have to be connected. So, there’s a lot of networking, right?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. I think-
Yeah. I think-
Sorry for skipping past that. And then the data center itself is complicated, but these are still standard sized data centers for GPT-4 scale. Now, we step forward to what is the scale of clusters that people built last year, and it ranges widely. It ranges from like, “Hey, these are standard data centers. And we’re just using multiple of them and connecting them together really with a ton of fiber between them, a lot of networking, etc.” That’s what OpenAI and Microsoft did in Arizona. They have 100,000 GPUs.
Meta, similar thing. They took their standard existing data center design and it looks like an H, and they connected multiple of them together. They first did 24,000 GPUs total, only 16,000 of them were running on the training run because GPUs are very unreliable so they need to have spares to swap in and out. All the way to now, 100,000 GPUs that they’re training on Llama 4 on currently. Like, 128,000 or so.
Think about 100,000 GPUs with roughly 1,400 watts apiece. That’s 140 megawatts, 150 megawatts for 128. So, you’re talking about you’ve jumped from 15 to 20 megawatts to almost 10x that number, 9x that number, to 150 megawatts in two years from 2022 to 2024. And some people like Elon, that he admittedly… He says himself he got into the game a little bit late for pre-training large language models. xAI was started later, right? But then, he bent heaven and hell to get his data center up and get the largest cluster in the world, which is 200,000 GPUs. And he did that. He bought a factory in Memphis. He’s upgrading the substation, with the same time, he’s got a bunch of mobile power generation, a bunch of single cycle combine. He tapped the natural gas line that’s right next to the factory, and he’s just pulling a ton of gas, burning gas.
He’s generating all this power. He’s in an old appliance factory that’s shut down and moved to China long ago, and he’s got 200,000 GPUs in it. And now, what’s the next scale? All the hyperscalers have done this. Now, the next scale is something that’s even bigger. And so Elon, just to stick on the topic, he’s building his own natural gas plant, like a proper one right next door. He’s deploying tons of Tesla Megapack batteries to make the power more smooth and all sorts of other things. He’s got industrial chillers to cool the water down because he’s water-cooling the chips. So, all these crazy things to get the clusters bigger and bigger.
But when you look at, say, what OpenAI did with Stargate in Arizona, in Abilene Texas, right? What they’ve announced, at least. It’s not built. Elon says they don’t have the money. There’s some debates about this. But at full scale, at least the first section is definitely money’s accounted for, but there’s multiple sections. But full scale, that data center is going to be 2.2 gigawatts, 2,200 megawatts of power in. And roughly, 1.8 gigawatts or 1,800 megawatts of power delivered to chips.
Now, this is an absurd scale. 2.2 gigawatts is more than most cities, to be clear. Delivered to a single cluster that’s connected to do training. To train these models, to do both the pre-training, the post-training, all of this stuff.
Lex Fridman
This is insane.
This is insane.
Nathan Lambert
It is. What is a nuclear power plant, again?
It is. What is a nuclear power plant, again?
Dylan Patel
Everyone is doing this. Meta in Louisiana, they’re building two natural gas plants. Massive ones. And then, they’re building this massive data center. Amazon has plans for this scale. Google has plans for this scale. xAI has plans for this scale. All of these, the guys that are racing, the companies that are racing are racing hard, and they’re doing multi-gigawatt data centers to build this out. Because they think that, “If I now have…” Obviously, pre-training scaling is going to continue, but to some extent. But then also, all this post-training stuff where you have RL Sandbox for computer use or whatever, this is where they’re going to… And all these fearful viable domains where they just keep learning and learning and learning, self-play or whatever. Whatever it is makes the AI so much more capable because the line does go up.
Everyone is doing this. Meta in Louisiana, they’re building two natural gas plants. Massive ones. And then, they’re building this massive data center. Amazon has plans for this scale. Google has plans for this scale. xAI has plans for this scale. All of these, the guys that are racing, the companies that are racing are racing hard, and they’re doing multi-gigawatt data centers to build this out. Because they think that, “If I now have…” Obviously, pre-training scaling is going to continue, but to some extent. But then also, all this post-training stuff where you have RL Sandbox for computer use or whatever, this is where they’re going to… And all these fearful viable domains where they just keep learning and learning and learning, self-play or whatever. Whatever it is makes the AI so much more capable because the line does go up.
As you throw more compute, you get more performance. This shirt is about scaling laws. To some extent, it is diminishing returns. You 10x the compute, you don’t get 10x better model. You get a diminishing returns. But also, you get efficiency improvements, so you bend the curve. And these scale of data centers are just reeking a lot of havoc on the network. Nathan was mentioning Amazon has tried to buy this nuclear power plant Talen. And if you look at Talen’s stock, it’s just skyrocketing. They’re building a massive multi-gigawatt data center there.
You just go down the list, there’s so many ramifications. Interesting thing is certain regions of the US transmitting power cost more than actually generating it because the grid is so slow to build. And the demand for power, and the ability to build power, and re-ramping on a natural gas plant or even a coal plant is easy enough to do, but transmitting the power’s really hard. So in some parts of the US like in Virginia, it costs more to transmit power than it costs to generate it, which is there’s all sorts of second-order effects that are insane here.
Lex Fridman
Can the power grid support this kind of growth?
Can the power grid support this kind of growth?
Dylan Patel
Trump’s executive orders… There was a Biden executive order before the end of the year, but then Trump had some more executive orders, which hopefully reduced the regulations to where, yes, things can be built. But yeah, this is a big, big challenge. Is building enough power fast enough?
Trump’s executive orders… There was a Biden executive order before the end of the year, but then Trump had some more executive orders, which hopefully reduced the regulations to where, yes, things can be built. But yeah, this is a big, big challenge. Is building enough power fast enough?
Lex Fridman
Are you going to basically have a nuclear power plant next to a data center for each one of these?
Are you going to basically have a nuclear power plant next to a data center for each one of these?
Dylan Patel
The fun thing here is this is too slow to build the power plant. To build a power plant or to reconfigure an existing power plant, it’s too slow. And so therefore, you must use…
The fun thing here is this is too slow to build the power plant. To build a power plant or to reconfigure an existing power plant, it’s too slow. And so therefore, you must use…
Data center power consumption is flat, right? I mean, [inaudible 03:46:53].
Nathan Lambert
This is why nuclear is also good for it. Long term, nuclear is a very natural fit, but…
This is why nuclear is also good for it. Long term, nuclear is a very natural fit, but…
Dylan Patel
Yes.
Yes.
Nathan Lambert
… data-
… data-
You can’t do solar or anything in the short term like that.
Dylan Patel
Because data center power’s like this, right? You’re telling me I’m going to buy tens of billions of dollars of GPUs and idle them because the power’s not being generated? Power’s cheap. If you look at the cost of a cluster, less than 20% of it is power. Most of it is the capital cost and depreciation of the GPUs. And so it’s like, “Well, screw it. I’ll just build natural gas plants.” This is what Meta is doing in Louisiana, this is what OpenAI is doing in Texas, and all these different places. They may not be doing it directly, but they are partnered with someone. And so, there is a couple of hopes.
Because data center power’s like this, right? You’re telling me I’m going to buy tens of billions of dollars of GPUs and idle them because the power’s not being generated? Power’s cheap. If you look at the cost of a cluster, less than 20% of it is power. Most of it is the capital cost and depreciation of the GPUs. And so it’s like, “Well, screw it. I’ll just build natural gas plants.” This is what Meta is doing in Louisiana, this is what OpenAI is doing in Texas, and all these different places. They may not be doing it directly, but they are partnered with someone. And so, there is a couple of hopes.
One is… And Elon, what he’s doing in Memphis is to the extreme. They’re not just using dual combine cycle gas which is super efficient, he’s also just using single cycle and mobile generators and stuff which is less efficient. But there’s also the flip side, which is solar power generation is like this, and wind is another like this. Different correlate different. So if you stack both of those, plus you get a big chunk of batteries, plus you have a little bit of gas, it is possible to run it more green. It’s just the time scales for that is slow. So, people are trying. But Meta basically said, “Whatever. I don’t care about my sustainability pledge.” Or they’ll buy a power… It’s called a PPA, Power Purchasing Agreement, where there’ll be a massive wind farm or solar farm wherever. And then, they’ll just pretend like those electrons are being consumed by the data center. But in reality, they’re paying for the power here and selling it to the grid, and they’re buying power here.
And then another thing is Microsoft quit on some of their sustainability pledges. Elon, what he did with Memphis is objectively somewhat dirty, but he is also doing it in an area where there’s a bigger natural gas plant right next door and a sewer next… Or not a sewer, but a wastewater treatment and a garbage dump nearby. And he’s obviously made the world a lot more clean than that one data center is going to do, so I think it’s fine to some extent. And maybe, AGI solves global warming and stuff, whatever it is.
This is the attitude that people at the labs have, which is like, “Yeah, it’s great. We’ll just use gas,” because the race is that important. And if we lose, that’s way worse.
Lex Fridman
I should say that I got a chance to visit the Memphis data center.
I should say that I got a chance to visit the Memphis data center.
Dylan Patel
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
Lex Fridman
And it’s incredible. I mean, I visited with Elon. Just the teams and the rate of innovation there is insane. My sense is that nobody’s ever done anything of this scale, and nobody has certainly ever done anything of this scale at the rate that xAI is doing. So, they’re figuring out…
And it’s incredible. I mean, I visited with Elon. Just the teams and the rate of innovation there is insane. My sense is that nobody’s ever done anything of this scale, and nobody has certainly ever done anything of this scale at the rate that xAI is doing. So, they’re figuring out…
I was sitting in on all of these meetings where they’re brainstorming. It’s insane. It’s exciting because they’re trying to figure out what the bottlenecks are, how to remove the bottlenecks, how to make sure that… There’s just so many really cool things about putting together a data center because everything has to work. The people that do the sys admin, the machine learning and all of that is the exciting thing, so on. But really, the people that run everything are the folks that know the low-level software and hardware that runs everything, the networking, all of that. So, you have to make sure you have procedures that test everything. I think they’re using ethernet. I don’t know how they’re doing the networking, but-
Dylan Patel
They’re using NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet. I think the unsung heroes are the cooling in electrical systems which are just glossed over.
They’re using NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet. I think the unsung heroes are the cooling in electrical systems which are just glossed over.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Dylan Patel
But I think one story that maybe exemplifies how insane this stuff is, is when you’re training, you’re always doing… You’re running through the model a bunch, in the most simplistic terms. Running through the model a bunch, and then you’re going to exchange everything and synchronize the weights. So, you’ll do a step. This is like a step-in model training. And every step, your loss goes down hopefully, and it doesn’t always.
But I think one story that maybe exemplifies how insane this stuff is, is when you’re training, you’re always doing… You’re running through the model a bunch, in the most simplistic terms. Running through the model a bunch, and then you’re going to exchange everything and synchronize the weights. So, you’ll do a step. This is like a step-in model training. And every step, your loss goes down hopefully, and it doesn’t always.
But in the simplest terms, you’ll be computing a lot and then you’ll exchange. The interesting thing is GPU power is most of it, networking power is some but it’s a lot less. So while you’re computing, your power for your GPUs is here. But then when you’re exchanging weights, if you’re not able to overlap communications and compute perfectly, there may be a time period where your GPUs are just idle, and you’re exchanging weights and you’re like, “Hey, the model’s updating.” So, you’re exchanging the radiance, you do the model update, and then you start training again. So, the power goes… Right? And it’s super spiky.
And so funnily enough, when you talk about the scale of data center power, you can blow stuff up so easily. And so, Meta actually has accidentally upstreamed something to code in PyTorch where they added an operator. And I kid you not, whoever made this, I want to hug the guy because it says PyTorch… It’s like PyTorch.powerplant no blow up equals 0 or equal 1. And what it does is amazing, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Either when you’re exchanging the weights, the GPU will just compute fake numbers so the power doesn’t spike too much, and so then the power plants don’t blow up because the transient spikes screw stuff up.
Either when you’re exchanging the weights, the GPU will just compute fake numbers so the power doesn’t spike too much, and so then the power plants don’t blow up because the transient spikes screw stuff up.
Lex Fridman
Well, that makes sense. You have to do that kind thing. [inaudible 03:51:57] You have to make sure they’re not idle.
Well, that makes sense. You have to do that kind thing. [inaudible 03:51:57] You have to make sure they’re not idle.
Dylan Patel
And Elon’s solution was like, “Let me throw a bunch of Tesla Megapacks and a few other things.”
And Elon’s solution was like, “Let me throw a bunch of Tesla Megapacks and a few other things.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, to symbolize that.
Yeah, to symbolize that.
Dylan Patel
Everyone has different solutions, but Meta’s, at least, was publicly and openly known, which is just like, set this operator. And what this operator does is it just makes the GPUs compute nothing so that the power doesn’t spike.
Everyone has different solutions, but Meta’s, at least, was publicly and openly known, which is just like, set this operator. And what this operator does is it just makes the GPUs compute nothing so that the power doesn’t spike.
Lex Fridman
But that just tells you how much power you’re working with. I mean, it’s insane. It’s insane.
But that just tells you how much power you’re working with. I mean, it’s insane. It’s insane.
Nathan Lambert
People should just go to Google, like scale or what does X watts do, and go through all the scales from 1 watt to a kilowatt to a megawatt. You look and stare at that, and you’re how high on the list a gigawatt is, it’s mind-blowing.
People should just go to Google, like scale or what does X watts do, and go through all the scales from 1 watt to a kilowatt to a megawatt. You look and stare at that, and you’re how high on the list a gigawatt is, it’s mind-blowing.
Lex Fridman
Can you say something about the cooling? I know Elon’s using liquid cooling, I believe, in all cases. That’s a new thing. Most of them don’t use liquid cooling. Is there something interesting to say about the cooling?
Can you say something about the cooling? I know Elon’s using liquid cooling, I believe, in all cases. That’s a new thing. Most of them don’t use liquid cooling. Is there something interesting to say about the cooling?
Dylan Patel
Yeah. So, air cooling has been the de facto standard. Throw a bunch of metal heat pipes, et cetera, and fans, and that’s cold. That’s been enough to cool it. People have been dabbling in water cooling. Google’s TPUs are water- cooled. So, they’ve been doing that for a few years. But with GPUs, no one’s ever done… And no one’s ever done the scale of water cooling that Elon just did. Now, next generation NVIDIA is for the highest-end GPU, it is mandatory water cooling. You have to water-cool it.
Yeah. So, air cooling has been the de facto standard. Throw a bunch of metal heat pipes, et cetera, and fans, and that’s cold. That’s been enough to cool it. People have been dabbling in water cooling. Google’s TPUs are water- cooled. So, they’ve been doing that for a few years. But with GPUs, no one’s ever done… And no one’s ever done the scale of water cooling that Elon just did. Now, next generation NVIDIA is for the highest-end GPU, it is mandatory water cooling. You have to water-cool it.
But Elon did it on this current generation, and that required a lot of stuff. If you look at some of the satellite photos and stuff of the Memphis facility, there’s all these external water chillers that are sitting. Basically, it looks like a semi truck pod thing. What’s it called? The container? But really, those are water chillers, and he has 90 of those water chillers just sitting outside. Ninety different containers that chill the water, bring it back to the data center, and then you distribute it to all the chips, pull all the heat out and then send it back. And this is both a way to cool the chips, but also, it’s an efficiency thing.
And going back to that three vector thing, there is Memory Bandwidth FLOPS and interconnect. The closer the chips are together, the easier it is to do high-speed interconnects. And this is also a reason why you want to go water cooling is because you can just put the chips right next to each other, and therefore get higher speed connectivity.
Lex Fridman
I got to ask you, in one of your recent posts, there’s a section called cluster measuring contest. So…
I got to ask you, in one of your recent posts, there’s a section called cluster measuring contest. So…
Dylan Patel
There’s another word there, but I won’t say it.
There’s another word there, but I won’t say it.
Lex Fridman
Who’s got the biggest now and who’s going to have the biggest?
Who’s got the biggest now and who’s going to have the biggest?
Dylan Patel
Today, individual largest is Elon. Right?
Today, individual largest is Elon. Right?
Lex Fridman
Right. Elon’s cluster.
Right. Elon’s cluster.
Dylan Patel
Elon’s cluster in Memphis, 200,000 GPUs. Meta has 128,000, OpenAI has 100,000 now. Now to be clear, other companies have more GPUs than Elon. They just don’t have them in one place. And for training, you want them tightly connected. There’s some techniques that people are researching and working on that let you train across multiple regions. But for the most part, you want them all in one area so you can connect them highly with high-speed networking.
Elon’s cluster in Memphis, 200,000 GPUs. Meta has 128,000, OpenAI has 100,000 now. Now to be clear, other companies have more GPUs than Elon. They just don’t have them in one place. And for training, you want them tightly connected. There’s some techniques that people are researching and working on that let you train across multiple regions. But for the most part, you want them all in one area so you can connect them highly with high-speed networking.
And so, Elon today has 200,000 H100s, 100,000 H100s and 100,000 H200s. Meta, OpenAI, and Amazon all have on the scale of a hundred thousand, a little bit less. But next this year, people are building much more. Anthrophic and Amazon are building a cluster of 400,000 trainium 2, which is Amazon-specific chip trying to get away from NVIDIA. Meta and OpenAI have scales for hundreds of thousands. But by next year, you’ll have 500,000 to 700,000 GPU clusters. And note, those GPUs are much higher power consumption than existing ones. Hopper’s 700 watts, Blackwell goes to 1,200 watts.
So, the power per chip is growing and the number of chips is growing.
Lex Fridman
Nuts. Elon said he’ll get to a million. Do you think that’s actually feasible?
Nuts. Elon said he’ll get to a million. Do you think that’s actually feasible?
Dylan Patel
I mean, I don’t doubt Elon. The filings that he has for the power plant and the Tesla battery packs, it’s clear he has some crazy plans for Memphis. Permits and stuff is open record, but it’s not quite clear what the time scales are. I just never doubt Elon. He’s going to surprise us.
I mean, I don’t doubt Elon. The filings that he has for the power plant and the Tesla battery packs, it’s clear he has some crazy plans for Memphis. Permits and stuff is open record, but it’s not quite clear what the time scales are. I just never doubt Elon. He’s going to surprise us.
Lex Fridman
So, what’s the idea with these clusters? If you have a million GPUs, what percentage in a, let’s say 2 or 3 years, is used for training? What percent pre-training, and what percent is used for the actual computation?
So, what’s the idea with these clusters? If you have a million GPUs, what percentage in a, let’s say 2 or 3 years, is used for training? What percent pre-training, and what percent is used for the actual computation?
Dylan Patel
These mega clusters make no sense for inference. You could route inference there and just not train. But most of the inference capacity is being, “Hey, I’ve got a 30-megawatt data center here, I’ve got 50 megawatts here, I’ve got 100 here.” Whatever. I’ll just throw inference in all of those because the mega clusters, multi-gigawatt data centers, I want to train there because that’s where all of my GPUs are co-located where I can put them at a super high networking speed connected together. Because that’s what you need for training.
These mega clusters make no sense for inference. You could route inference there and just not train. But most of the inference capacity is being, “Hey, I’ve got a 30-megawatt data center here, I’ve got 50 megawatts here, I’ve got 100 here.” Whatever. I’ll just throw inference in all of those because the mega clusters, multi-gigawatt data centers, I want to train there because that’s where all of my GPUs are co-located where I can put them at a super high networking speed connected together. Because that’s what you need for training.
Now with pre-training, this is the old scale. You can increase parameters, you did increase data, model gets better. That doesn’t apply anymore because there’s not much more data in the pre-training side. Yes, there’s video and audio and image that has not been fully taken advantage of, so there’s a lot more scaling. But a lot of people have transcript, taken transcripts out of YouTube videos, and that gets you a lot of the data. It doesn’t get you all of the learning value out of the video and image data, but…
There’s still scaling to be done on pre-training, but this post-training world is where all the FLOPS are going to be spent. The model’s going to play with itself, it’s going to self-play, it’s going to do verifiable tasks, it’s going to do computer use in sandboxes. It might even do simulated robotics things. All of these things are going to be environments where compute is spent in “post-training.” But I think it’s going to be good. We’re going to drop the post from post-training.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. Wow.
Yeah. Wow.
Dylan Patel
It’s going to be pre-training and it’s going to be training, I think, at some point. [inaudible 03:57:53] At some point. Because for bulk of the last few years, pre-training has dwarfed post-training. But with these verifiable methods, especially ones that scale really potentially infinitely, like computer use in robotics, not just math and coding where you can verify what’s happening, those infinitely verifiable tasks, it seems you can spend as much compute as you want on this.
It’s going to be pre-training and it’s going to be training, I think, at some point. [inaudible 03:57:53] At some point. Because for bulk of the last few years, pre-training has dwarfed post-training. But with these verifiable methods, especially ones that scale really potentially infinitely, like computer use in robotics, not just math and coding where you can verify what’s happening, those infinitely verifiable tasks, it seems you can spend as much compute as you want on this.
Nathan Lambert
Especially at the context length increase because the end of pre-training is when you increase the context length for these models. And we’ve talked earlier in the conversation about how the context length, when you have a long input, is much easier to manage than output. And a lot of these post-training and reasoning techniques rely on a ton of sampling, and it’s becoming increasingly long context. So just like effectively, your compute efficiency goes down.
Especially at the context length increase because the end of pre-training is when you increase the context length for these models. And we’ve talked earlier in the conversation about how the context length, when you have a long input, is much easier to manage than output. And a lot of these post-training and reasoning techniques rely on a ton of sampling, and it’s becoming increasingly long context. So just like effectively, your compute efficiency goes down.
I think FLOPS is the standard for how you measure it. But with RL, and you have to do all of these things where you move your weights around in a different way than at pre-training and just generation, it’s going to be become less efficient and FLOPS is going to be less of a useful term. And then as the infrastructure gets better, it’s probably going to go back to FLOPS.
Lex Fridman
So, all of the things we’ve been talking about is most likely going to be NVIDIA, right? Is there any competitors of GPU?
So, all of the things we’ve been talking about is most likely going to be NVIDIA, right? Is there any competitors of GPU?
Dylan Patel
Google kind of ignored them. I was getting-
Google kind of ignored them. I was getting-
Nathan Lambert
I was like, “Ah?”
I was like, “Ah?”
Lex Fridman
What’s the story with TPU? What’s the…
What’s the story with TPU? What’s the…
Dylan Patel
TPU is awesome. It’s great. Google is, they’re a bit more tepid on building data centers for some reason. They’re building big data centers, don’t get me wrong, and they actually have the biggest cluster. I was talking about NVIDIA clusters. They actually have the biggest cluster. Period.
TPU is awesome. It’s great. Google is, they’re a bit more tepid on building data centers for some reason. They’re building big data centers, don’t get me wrong, and they actually have the biggest cluster. I was talking about NVIDIA clusters. They actually have the biggest cluster. Period.
But the way they do it is very interesting. They have two data center super regions in that the data center isn’t physically… All of the GPUs aren’t physically on one site but they’re like 30 miles from each other. And they’re not GPUs, TPUs. In Iowa and Nebraska, they have four data centers that are just right next to each other.
Lex Fridman
Why doesn’t Google flex its cluster size?
Why doesn’t Google flex its cluster size?
Dylan Patel
Go to multi-data center training, there’s good images in there. I’ll show you what I mean. It’s just semi-analysis multi-data center.
Go to multi-data center training, there’s good images in there. I’ll show you what I mean. It’s just semi-analysis multi-data center.
This is an image of what a standard Google data center looks like. By the way, their data centers look very different than anyone else’s data centers.
Lex Fridman
What are we looking at here?
What are we looking at here?
Dylan Patel
So if you see this image, in the center, there are these big rectangular boxes. Those are where the actual chips are kept. And then if you scroll down a little bit further, you can see there’s these water pipes, there’s these chiller cooling towers in the top, and a bunch of diesel generators. The diesel generators are backup power. The data center itself look physically smaller than the water chillers. The chips are actually easier to keep together, but then cooling all the water for the water cooling is very difficult.
So if you see this image, in the center, there are these big rectangular boxes. Those are where the actual chips are kept. And then if you scroll down a little bit further, you can see there’s these water pipes, there’s these chiller cooling towers in the top, and a bunch of diesel generators. The diesel generators are backup power. The data center itself look physically smaller than the water chillers. The chips are actually easier to keep together, but then cooling all the water for the water cooling is very difficult.
So, Google has a very advanced infrastructure that no one else has for the TPU. And what they do is they’ve stamped a bunch of these data centers out in a few regions. So if you go a little bit further down… This is a Microsoft. This is in Arizona. This is where GPT-5 “will be trained.”
Nathan Lambert
If it doesn’t exist already.
If it doesn’t exist already.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, if it doesn’t exist already. But each of these data centers, I’ve shown a couple images of them, they’re really closely co-located in the same region. Nebraska, Iowa. And then they also have a similar one in Ohio complex. And so, these data centers are really close to each other. And what they’ve done is they’ve connected them super high bandwidth with fiber. And so, these are just a bunch of data centers.
Yeah, if it doesn’t exist already. But each of these data centers, I’ve shown a couple images of them, they’re really closely co-located in the same region. Nebraska, Iowa. And then they also have a similar one in Ohio complex. And so, these data centers are really close to each other. And what they’ve done is they’ve connected them super high bandwidth with fiber. And so, these are just a bunch of data centers.
And the point here is that Google has a very advanced infrastructure, very tightly connected in a small region. So, Elon will always to have the biggest cluster fully connected because it’s all in one building, and he’s completely right on that. Google has the biggest cluster but you have to spread over three sites, and by a significant margin. We have to go across multiple sites.
Lex Fridman
Why doesn’t Google compete with NVIDIA? Why don’t they sell TPUs?
Why doesn’t Google compete with NVIDIA? Why don’t they sell TPUs?
Dylan Patel
I think there’s a couple of problems with it. It’s like, one, TPU has been a form of allowing search to be really freaking cheap and build models for that. And so, a big chunk of the search, GPU purchases or TPU purchases or big chunk of Google’s purchases and usage, all of it is for internal workloads. Whether it be search, now Gemini, YouTube, all these different applications that they have ads. These are where all their TPUs are being spent and that’s what they’re hyper-focused on. And so, there’s certain aspects of the architecture that are optimized for their use case that are not optimized elsewhere.
I think there’s a couple of problems with it. It’s like, one, TPU has been a form of allowing search to be really freaking cheap and build models for that. And so, a big chunk of the search, GPU purchases or TPU purchases or big chunk of Google’s purchases and usage, all of it is for internal workloads. Whether it be search, now Gemini, YouTube, all these different applications that they have ads. These are where all their TPUs are being spent and that’s what they’re hyper-focused on. And so, there’s certain aspects of the architecture that are optimized for their use case that are not optimized elsewhere.
One simple one is they’ve open sourced a Gemma model, and they called it Gemma-7B. But then, it’s actually 8 billion parameters because the vocabulary is so large. And the reason they made the vocabulary so large is because TPUs matrix multiply unit is massive because that’s what they’ve optimized for. And so they decided, “Oh, well, I’ll just make the vocabulary large, too.” Even though it makes no sense to do so in such a small model, because that fits on their hardware. Gemma doesn’t run it as efficiently on a GPU as a Llama does. But vice versa, Llama doesn’t run as efficiently on a TPU as a Gemma does.
There’s certain aspects of hardware, software co-design. All their search models are there, ranking and recommendation models, all these different models that are AI but not like gen AI have been hyper optimized with TPUs forever. The software stack is super optimized. But all of this software stack has not been released publicly at all. Very small portions of it. JAX and XLA have been. But the experience when you’re inside of Google and you’re training on TPUs as a researcher, you don’t need to know anything about the hardware in many cases, right? It’s pretty beautiful.
Nathan Lambert
They all loved it.
They all loved it.
Dylan Patel
But as soon as you step outside-
But as soon as you step outside-
Nathan Lambert
A lot of them go back. They leave Google and then they go back.
A lot of them go back. They leave Google and then they go back.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Yeah. They leave and they start a company because they have all of these amazing research ideas. And they’re like, “Wait. Infrastructure’s hard, software is hard.” And this is on GPUs. Or if they try to use TPUs, same thing, because they don’t have access to all this code. And so it’s like, how do you convince a company whose golden goose is search where they’re making hundreds of billions of dollars from, to start selling GPU or TPUs which they used to only buy a couple of billion of…
Yeah. They leave and they start a company because they have all of these amazing research ideas. And they’re like, “Wait. Infrastructure’s hard, software is hard.” And this is on GPUs. Or if they try to use TPUs, same thing, because they don’t have access to all this code. And so it’s like, how do you convince a company whose golden goose is search where they’re making hundreds of billions of dollars from, to start selling GPU or TPUs which they used to only buy a couple of billion of…
I think in 2023, they bought a couple of billion. And now, they’re buying like 10 billion to $15 billion worth. But how do you convince them that they should just buy twice as many and figure out how to sell them, and make $30 billion? Who cares about making $30 billion?
Lex Fridman
Won’t that 30 billion exceed actually the search profit eventually?
Won’t that 30 billion exceed actually the search profit eventually?
Dylan Patel
You’re always going to make more money on services than…
You’re always going to make more money on services than…
Lex Fridman
Always.
Always.
Dylan Patel
I mean, yeah. To be clear, today, people are spending a lot more on hardware than they are with the services because the hardware front runs the service spend. But-
I mean, yeah. To be clear, today, people are spending a lot more on hardware than they are with the services because the hardware front runs the service spend. But-
Lex Fridman
You’re investing, yeah.
You’re investing, yeah.
Dylan Patel
… if there’s no revenue for AI stuff or not enough revenue, then obviously, it’s going to blow up. People won’t continue to spend on GPUs forever. And NVIDIA is trying to move up the stack with software that they’re trying to sell and licensed and stuff. But Google has never had that DNA of like, “This is a product we should sell.” The Google Cloud, which is a separate organization from the TPU team, which is a separate organization from the DeepMind team, which is a separate organization from the Search team. There’s a lot of bureaucracy here.
… if there’s no revenue for AI stuff or not enough revenue, then obviously, it’s going to blow up. People won’t continue to spend on GPUs forever. And NVIDIA is trying to move up the stack with software that they’re trying to sell and licensed and stuff. But Google has never had that DNA of like, “This is a product we should sell.” The Google Cloud, which is a separate organization from the TPU team, which is a separate organization from the DeepMind team, which is a separate organization from the Search team. There’s a lot of bureaucracy here.
Lex Fridman
Wait. Google Cloud is a separate team than the TPU team?
Wait. Google Cloud is a separate team than the TPU team?
Dylan Patel
Technically, TPU sits under infrastructure, which sits under Google Cloud. But Google Cloud, for renting stuff-
Technically, TPU sits under infrastructure, which sits under Google Cloud. But Google Cloud, for renting stuff-
Dylan Patel
… But Google cloud for renting stuff and TPU architecture are very different goals, and hardware and software, all of this, right? The Jax XLA teams do not serve Google’s customers externally. Whereas NVIDIA’s various CUDA teams for things like NCCL serve external customers. The internal teams like Jax and XLA and stuff, they more so serve DeepMind and Search, right? And so their customer is different. They’re not building a product for them.
… But Google cloud for renting stuff and TPU architecture are very different goals, and hardware and software, all of this, right? The Jax XLA teams do not serve Google’s customers externally. Whereas NVIDIA’s various CUDA teams for things like NCCL serve external customers. The internal teams like Jax and XLA and stuff, they more so serve DeepMind and Search, right? And so their customer is different. They’re not building a product for them.
Lex Fridman
Do you understand why AWS keeps winning versus Azure for cloud versus Google Cloud?
Do you understand why AWS keeps winning versus Azure for cloud versus Google Cloud?
Dylan Patel
Yeah, there’s-
Yeah, there’s-
Lex Fridman
Google Cloud is tiny, isn’t it, relative to AWS?
Google Cloud is tiny, isn’t it, relative to AWS?
Dylan Patel
Google Cloud is third. Yeah. Microsoft is the second biggest, but Amazon is the biggest, right?
Google Cloud is third. Yeah. Microsoft is the second biggest, but Amazon is the biggest, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dylan Patel
And Microsoft deceptively sort of includes Microsoft Office 365 and things like that, some of these enterprise-wide licenses. So in reality, the gulf is even larger. Microsoft is still second though, right? Amazon is way bigger. Why? Because using AWS is better and easier. And in many cases, it’s cheaper-
And Microsoft deceptively sort of includes Microsoft Office 365 and things like that, some of these enterprise-wide licenses. So in reality, the gulf is even larger. Microsoft is still second though, right? Amazon is way bigger. Why? Because using AWS is better and easier. And in many cases, it’s cheaper-
Nathan Lambert
It was first.
It was first.
Dylan Patel
And it’s first. It was first.
And it’s first. It was first.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But there’s a lot of things that are first that lose the-
Yeah. But there’s a lot of things that are first that lose the-
Nathan Lambert
Well, it’s harder to switch than it is to-
Well, it’s harder to switch than it is to-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, okay.
Yeah, okay.
Dylan Patel
AWS is-
AWS is-
Lex Fridman
Because there’s large-
Because there’s large-
Nathan Lambert
There’s big fees for switching too.
There’s big fees for switching too.
Dylan Patel
AWS generates over 80% of Amazon’s profit. I think over 90%.
AWS generates over 80% of Amazon’s profit. I think over 90%.
Lex Fridman
That’s insane.
That’s insane.
Dylan Patel
The distribution centers are just like one day we’ll decide to make money from this, but they haven’t yet, right? They make tiny little profit from it.
The distribution centers are just like one day we’ll decide to make money from this, but they haven’t yet, right? They make tiny little profit from it.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, one day Amazon Prime will triple in price.
Yeah, one day Amazon Prime will triple in price.
Lex Fridman
You would think they would improve AWS interface because it’s horrible. It’s clunky, but everybody is.
You would think they would improve AWS interface because it’s horrible. It’s clunky, but everybody is.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, one would think.
Yeah, one would think.
Dylan Patel
I think actually Google’s interface is sometimes nice, but it’s also they don’t care about anyone besides their top customers.
I think actually Google’s interface is sometimes nice, but it’s also they don’t care about anyone besides their top customers.
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Dylan Patel
And their customer service sucks and they have a lot less-
And their customer service sucks and they have a lot less-
Lex Fridman
I mean, all these companies, they optimize for the big customers. Yeah, it’s supposed to be for business.
I mean, all these companies, they optimize for the big customers. Yeah, it’s supposed to be for business.
Dylan Patel
Amazon has always optimized for the small customer too though. Obviously they optimize a lot for the big customer, but when they started, they just would go to random Bay Area things and give out credits or just put in your credit card and use us back in the early days. The business has grown with them and [inaudible 04:07:04]. Why is Snowflake all over Amazon? Because Snowflake in the beginning, when Amazon didn’t care about them, was still using Amazon. And then of course one day Snowflake and Amazon has a super huge partnership, but this is the case. Amazon’s user experience and quality is better.
Amazon has always optimized for the small customer too though. Obviously they optimize a lot for the big customer, but when they started, they just would go to random Bay Area things and give out credits or just put in your credit card and use us back in the early days. The business has grown with them and [inaudible 04:07:04]. Why is Snowflake all over Amazon? Because Snowflake in the beginning, when Amazon didn’t care about them, was still using Amazon. And then of course one day Snowflake and Amazon has a super huge partnership, but this is the case. Amazon’s user experience and quality is better.
Also, a lot of the silicon they’ve engineered makes them have a lower cost structure in traditional cloud, storage, CPU networking, that kind of stuff than in databases. I think four of Amazon’s top five revenue products, margin products like gross profit products are all database-related products like Redshift and all these things. So Amazon has a very good silicon to user experience like entire pipeline with AWS. I think Google, their silicon teams, they have awesome silicon internally, TPU, the YouTube chip, some of these other chips that they’ve made. And the problem is they’re not serving external customers, they’re serving internal customers, right?
Nathan Lambert
I mean, NVIDIA’s entire culture is designed from the bottom up to do this. There’s this recent book, The NVIDIA Way by Tae Kim, that details this and how they look for future opportunities and ready their CUDA software libraries to make it so that new applications of high-performance computing can very rapidly be evolved on CUDA and NVIDIA chips. And that is entirely different than Google as a services business.
I mean, NVIDIA’s entire culture is designed from the bottom up to do this. There’s this recent book, The NVIDIA Way by Tae Kim, that details this and how they look for future opportunities and ready their CUDA software libraries to make it so that new applications of high-performance computing can very rapidly be evolved on CUDA and NVIDIA chips. And that is entirely different than Google as a services business.
Lex Fridman
I mean NVIDIA, it should be said, is a truly special company. I mean there’s the culture of everything. They’re really optimized for that kind of thing. Speaking of which, is there somebody that can even challenge NVIDIA hardware-wise? Intel? AMD?
I mean NVIDIA, it should be said, is a truly special company. I mean there’s the culture of everything. They’re really optimized for that kind of thing. Speaking of which, is there somebody that can even challenge NVIDIA hardware-wise? Intel? AMD?
Dylan Patel
I really don’t think so. We went through a very long process of working with AMD on training on their GPUs inference and stuff. And they’re decent, their hardware is better in many ways than in NVIDIA’s. The problem is their software is really bad and I think they’re getting better, right? They’re getting better, faster, but the gulf is so large and they don’t spend enough resources on it or haven’t historically, right? Maybe they’re changing their tune now, but for multiple months we were submitting the most bugs like us semi-analysis like what the fuck? Why are we submitting the most bugs? Because they only cared about their biggest customers and so they’d ship them a private image, blah, blah, blah. And it’s like, “Okay, but I am just using PyTorch and I want to use the publicly available libraries,” and you don’t care about that. So they’re getting better, but I think AMD is not possible. Intel is obviously in dire straits right now and needs to be saved somehow. Very important for national security, for American technology comments.
I really don’t think so. We went through a very long process of working with AMD on training on their GPUs inference and stuff. And they’re decent, their hardware is better in many ways than in NVIDIA’s. The problem is their software is really bad and I think they’re getting better, right? They’re getting better, faster, but the gulf is so large and they don’t spend enough resources on it or haven’t historically, right? Maybe they’re changing their tune now, but for multiple months we were submitting the most bugs like us semi-analysis like what the fuck? Why are we submitting the most bugs? Because they only cared about their biggest customers and so they’d ship them a private image, blah, blah, blah. And it’s like, “Okay, but I am just using PyTorch and I want to use the publicly available libraries,” and you don’t care about that. So they’re getting better, but I think AMD is not possible. Intel is obviously in dire straits right now and needs to be saved somehow. Very important for national security, for American technology comments.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain the obviously, so why are they in dire straits?
Can you explain the obviously, so why are they in dire straits?
Dylan Patel
Going back to earlier, only three companies can R&D, right? Taiwan Hsinchu, Samsung [inaudible 04:09:49], and then Intel Hillsboro. Samsung’s doing horribly. Intel’s doing horribly. We could be in a world where there’s only one company that can do R& and that one company already manufactures most of chips. They’ve been gaining market share anyways, but that’s a critical thing. So what happens to Taiwan means the rest of the world, semiconductor industry and therefore tech relies on Taiwan and that’s obviously precarious as far as Intel, they’ve been slowly, steadily declining. They were on top of servers and PCs, but now Apple’s done the M1 and Nvidia’s releasing a PC chip and Qualcomm’s releasing a PC chip.
Going back to earlier, only three companies can R&D, right? Taiwan Hsinchu, Samsung [inaudible 04:09:49], and then Intel Hillsboro. Samsung’s doing horribly. Intel’s doing horribly. We could be in a world where there’s only one company that can do R& and that one company already manufactures most of chips. They’ve been gaining market share anyways, but that’s a critical thing. So what happens to Taiwan means the rest of the world, semiconductor industry and therefore tech relies on Taiwan and that’s obviously precarious as far as Intel, they’ve been slowly, steadily declining. They were on top of servers and PCs, but now Apple’s done the M1 and Nvidia’s releasing a PC chip and Qualcomm’s releasing a PC chip.
And in servers, hyperscalers are all making their own ARM-based server chips and Intel has no AI silicon like wins. They have very small wins and they never got into mobile because they said no to the iPhone and all these things have compounded and they’ve lost their process technology leadership. They were ahead for 20 years and now they’re behind by at least a couple years and they’re trying to catch back up and we’ll see if their 18A, 14A strategy works out where they try and leapfrog TSMC like and Intel is just losing tons of money anyways, and they just fired their CEO, even though the CEO was the only person who understood the company well, right? We’ll see. He was not the best, but he was pretty good relatively technical guy.
Lex Fridman
Where does Intel make most of its money? The CPUs though.
Where does Intel make most of its money? The CPUs though.
Dylan Patel
PCs and data center CPUs, yeah, but data center CPUs are all going cloud and Amazon, Microsoft, Google are making ARM-based CPUs. And then PC side, AMD’s gained market share, Nvidia’s launching a chip, that’s not going to be a success, right? MediaTek, Qualcomm ever launched chips. Apple’s doing well. They could get squeezed a little bit in PC, although PC generally I imagine will just stick Intel mostly for Windows side.
PCs and data center CPUs, yeah, but data center CPUs are all going cloud and Amazon, Microsoft, Google are making ARM-based CPUs. And then PC side, AMD’s gained market share, Nvidia’s launching a chip, that’s not going to be a success, right? MediaTek, Qualcomm ever launched chips. Apple’s doing well. They could get squeezed a little bit in PC, although PC generally I imagine will just stick Intel mostly for Windows side.
Who wins the race to AGI?
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about the broad AI race. Who do you think wins? We talked about Google, Meta.
Let’s talk about the broad AI race. Who do you think wins? We talked about Google, Meta.
Nathan Lambert
The default leader has been Google because of their infrastructure advantage.
The default leader has been Google because of their infrastructure advantage.
Lex Fridman
Well, in the news, OpenAI is the leader.
Well, in the news, OpenAI is the leader.
Nathan Lambert
They’re the leading in the narrative.
They’re the leading in the narrative.
Dylan Patel
They have the best model.
They have the best model.
Nathan Lambert
They have the best model that people can use and they’re experts-Experts.
They have the best model that people can use and they’re experts-Experts.
Dylan Patel
And they have the most AI revenue.
And they have the most AI revenue.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. OpenAI is winning.
Yeah. OpenAI is winning.
Lex Fridman
So who’s making money on AI right now? Is anyone making money?
So who’s making money on AI right now? Is anyone making money?
Dylan Patel
So accounting profit-wise, Microsoft is making money, but they’re spending a lot of CapEx and that gets depreciated over years. Meta’s making tons of money with recommendation systems, which is AI, but not with Llama, right? Llama’s losing money for sure. I think Anthropic and OpenAI are obviously not making money otherwise they wouldn’t be raising money. They have to raise money to build more. Although theoretically they are making money. You spent a few hundred million dollars on GPT-4 and it’s doing billions in revenue. So obviously it’s making money. Although they had to continue to research to get the compute efficiency wins and moved down the curve to get that 1200x that has been achieved for GPT-3. Maybe we’re only at a couple hundred X now, but know with GPT-4 Turbo and 4.0 And there’ll be another one probably cheaper than GPT-4.0 even that comes out at some point.
So accounting profit-wise, Microsoft is making money, but they’re spending a lot of CapEx and that gets depreciated over years. Meta’s making tons of money with recommendation systems, which is AI, but not with Llama, right? Llama’s losing money for sure. I think Anthropic and OpenAI are obviously not making money otherwise they wouldn’t be raising money. They have to raise money to build more. Although theoretically they are making money. You spent a few hundred million dollars on GPT-4 and it’s doing billions in revenue. So obviously it’s making money. Although they had to continue to research to get the compute efficiency wins and moved down the curve to get that 1200x that has been achieved for GPT-3. Maybe we’re only at a couple hundred X now, but know with GPT-4 Turbo and 4.0 And there’ll be another one probably cheaper than GPT-4.0 even that comes out at some point.
Lex Fridman
And that research costs a lot of money.
And that research costs a lot of money.
Dylan Patel
Yep, exactly.
Yep, exactly.
Lex Fridman
That’s the thing that I guess is not talked about with the cost, that when you’re referring to the cost of the model, it’s not just the training or the test runs, it’s the actual research, the manpower.
That’s the thing that I guess is not talked about with the cost, that when you’re referring to the cost of the model, it’s not just the training or the test runs, it’s the actual research, the manpower.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, to do things like reasoning right now that exists. They’re going to scale it. They’re going to do a lot of research still. I think people focus on the payback question, but it’s really easy to just be like, well, GDP is humans and industrial capital. And if you can make intelligence cheap, then you can grow a lot, right? That’s the sort of dumb way to explain it. But that’s sort of what basically the investment thesis is. I think only Nvidia is actually making tons of money and other hardware vendors, the hyperscalers are all on paper making money, but in reality they’re spending a lot more on purchasing the GPUs, which you don’t know if they’re still going to make this much money on each GPU in two years, right?
Yeah, to do things like reasoning right now that exists. They’re going to scale it. They’re going to do a lot of research still. I think people focus on the payback question, but it’s really easy to just be like, well, GDP is humans and industrial capital. And if you can make intelligence cheap, then you can grow a lot, right? That’s the sort of dumb way to explain it. But that’s sort of what basically the investment thesis is. I think only Nvidia is actually making tons of money and other hardware vendors, the hyperscalers are all on paper making money, but in reality they’re spending a lot more on purchasing the GPUs, which you don’t know if they’re still going to make this much money on each GPU in two years, right?
You don’t know if all of a sudden OpenAI goes kapoof and now Microsoft has hundreds of thousands of GPUs they were renting to OpenAI that they paid for themselves with their investment in them that no longer have a customer. This is always a possibility. I don’t believe that. I think OpenAI will keep raising money. I think others will keep raising money because the returns from it are going to be eventually huge once we have AGI.
Lex Fridman
So do you think multiple companies will get, let’s assume-
So do you think multiple companies will get, let’s assume-
Dylan Patel
I don’t think it’s winner take all.
I don’t think it’s winner take all.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so let’s not call it AGI whatever. It’s like a single day. It’s a gradual thing-
Okay, so let’s not call it AGI whatever. It’s like a single day. It’s a gradual thing-
Nathan Lambert
Powerful AI. Super powerful AI.
Powerful AI. Super powerful AI.
Lex Fridman
But it’s a gradually increasing set of features that are useful and make-
But it’s a gradually increasing set of features that are useful and make-
Nathan Lambert
Rapidly increasing set of features.
Rapidly increasing set of features.
Lex Fridman
Rapidly increasing set of features. So you’re saying a lot of companies will be… It just seems absurd that all of these companies are building gigantic data centers.
Rapidly increasing set of features. So you’re saying a lot of companies will be… It just seems absurd that all of these companies are building gigantic data centers.
Nathan Lambert
There are companies that will benefit from AI but not because they train the best model. Meta has so many avenues to benefit from AI and all of their services. People are there. People spend time on that as platforms, and it’s a way to make more money per user per hour.
There are companies that will benefit from AI but not because they train the best model. Meta has so many avenues to benefit from AI and all of their services. People are there. People spend time on that as platforms, and it’s a way to make more money per user per hour.
Lex Fridman
It seems like Google X/X AI/ Tesla important to say. And then Meta will benefit not directly from the AI like the LLMs, but from the intelligence, like the additional boost of intelligence to the products they already sell. So whether that’s the recommendation system or for Elon who’s been talking about Optimus, the robot, potentially the intelligence of the robot, and then you have personalized robots in the home, that kind of thing. He thinks it’s a 10 plus trillion dollars business, which…
It seems like Google X/X AI/ Tesla important to say. And then Meta will benefit not directly from the AI like the LLMs, but from the intelligence, like the additional boost of intelligence to the products they already sell. So whether that’s the recommendation system or for Elon who’s been talking about Optimus, the robot, potentially the intelligence of the robot, and then you have personalized robots in the home, that kind of thing. He thinks it’s a 10 plus trillion dollars business, which…
Nathan Lambert
At some point, maybe. Not soon, but who knows when robotics will use for-
At some point, maybe. Not soon, but who knows when robotics will use for-
Dylan Patel
Let’s do a TAM analysis, 8 billion humans and let’s get 8 billion robots and let’s pay them the average salary. And there we go. 10 trillion. More than 10 trillions.
Let’s do a TAM analysis, 8 billion humans and let’s get 8 billion robots and let’s pay them the average salary. And there we go. 10 trillion. More than 10 trillions.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean if there’s robots everywhere, why does it have to be just 8 billion robots?
Yeah, I mean if there’s robots everywhere, why does it have to be just 8 billion robots?
Dylan Patel
Yeah, yeah, of course. Of course. I’m going to have one robot. You’re going to have like 20.
Yeah, yeah, of course. Of course. I’m going to have one robot. You’re going to have like 20.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean I see a use case for that. So yeah, so I guess the benefit would be in the products they sell, which is why OpenAI’s in a trickier position because they-
Yeah, I mean I see a use case for that. So yeah, so I guess the benefit would be in the products they sell, which is why OpenAI’s in a trickier position because they-
Nathan Lambert
All of the value of OpenAI right now as a brand is in ChatGPT and for most users, there’s not that much of a reason that they need OpenAI to be spending billions and billions of dollars on the next best model when they could just license Llama 5 and for be way cheaper. So that’s kind of like ChatGPT is an extremely valuable entity to them, but they could make more money just off that.
All of the value of OpenAI right now as a brand is in ChatGPT and for most users, there’s not that much of a reason that they need OpenAI to be spending billions and billions of dollars on the next best model when they could just license Llama 5 and for be way cheaper. So that’s kind of like ChatGPT is an extremely valuable entity to them, but they could make more money just off that.
Dylan Patel
The chat application clearly does not have tons of room to continue. The standard chat where you’re just using it for a random question and stuff. The cost continues to collapse. V3 is the latest one.
The chat application clearly does not have tons of room to continue. The standard chat where you’re just using it for a random question and stuff. The cost continues to collapse. V3 is the latest one.
Nathan Lambert
It’ll go down with the ads.
It’ll go down with the ads.
Dylan Patel
But it’s going to get supported by ads. Meta already serves 405B and probably loses the money, but at some point the models are going to get so cheap that they can just serve them for free with ad supported and that’s what Google is going to be able to do. And obviously they’ve got a bigger reach. Chat is not going to be the only use case. It’s like these reasoning, code, agents, computer use, all this stuff is where OpenAI has to actually go to make money in the future otherwise they’re kaputs.
But it’s going to get supported by ads. Meta already serves 405B and probably loses the money, but at some point the models are going to get so cheap that they can just serve them for free with ad supported and that’s what Google is going to be able to do. And obviously they’ve got a bigger reach. Chat is not going to be the only use case. It’s like these reasoning, code, agents, computer use, all this stuff is where OpenAI has to actually go to make money in the future otherwise they’re kaputs.
Lex Fridman
But X, Google, and Meta have these other products. So isn’t it likely that OpenAI and Anthropic disappear eventually?
But X, Google, and Meta have these other products. So isn’t it likely that OpenAI and Anthropic disappear eventually?
Dylan Patel
Unless they’re so good at models, which they are.
Unless they’re so good at models, which they are.
Lex Fridman
But it’s such a cutting edge. I mean-
But it’s such a cutting edge. I mean-
Nathan Lambert
It depends on where you think AI capabilities are going.
It depends on where you think AI capabilities are going.
Lex Fridman
You have to keep winning.
You have to keep winning.
Dylan Patel
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
You have to keep winning as you climb, even if the AI capabilities are going super rapidly awesome into the direction of AGI, there’s still a boost for X in terms of data, Google in terms of data, Meta in terms of data, in terms of other products and the money and there’s just huge amounts of money.
You have to keep winning as you climb, even if the AI capabilities are going super rapidly awesome into the direction of AGI, there’s still a boost for X in terms of data, Google in terms of data, Meta in terms of data, in terms of other products and the money and there’s just huge amounts of money.
Dylan Patel
The whole idea is human data is kind of tapped out. We don’t care. We all care about self-play, verifiable task.
The whole idea is human data is kind of tapped out. We don’t care. We all care about self-play, verifiable task.
Nathan Lambert
Think about AWS.
Think about AWS.
Lex Fridman
Yes, self-play, which is an RNG problem.
Yes, self-play, which is an RNG problem.
Nathan Lambert
AWS does not make a lot of money on each individual machine. And the same can be said for the most powerful AI platform, which is even though the calls to the API are so cheap, there’s still a lot of money to be made by owning that platform. And there’s a lot of discussions as it’s the next compute layer.
AWS does not make a lot of money on each individual machine. And the same can be said for the most powerful AI platform, which is even though the calls to the API are so cheap, there’s still a lot of money to be made by owning that platform. And there’s a lot of discussions as it’s the next compute layer.
Dylan Patel
You have to believe that. And there’s a lot of discussions that tokens and tokenomics and LLM, APIs are the next compute layer, are the next paradigm for the economy like energy and oil was. But you have to sort of believe that APIs and chat are not where AI is stuck. It is actually just tasks and agents and robotics and computer use, and those are the areas where all the value will be delivered, not API, not chat application.
You have to believe that. And there’s a lot of discussions that tokens and tokenomics and LLM, APIs are the next compute layer, are the next paradigm for the economy like energy and oil was. But you have to sort of believe that APIs and chat are not where AI is stuck. It is actually just tasks and agents and robotics and computer use, and those are the areas where all the value will be delivered, not API, not chat application.
Lex Fridman
So is it possible you have it all just becomes a commodity and you have the very thin wrapper like Perplexity, just joking.
So is it possible you have it all just becomes a commodity and you have the very thin wrapper like Perplexity, just joking.
Nathan Lambert
There are a lot of wrappers making a lot of money.
There are a lot of wrappers making a lot of money.
Lex Fridman
But do you think it’s possible that people would just even forget what OpenAI and Anthropic is just there’ll be wrappers around the API and it just dynamically-
But do you think it’s possible that people would just even forget what OpenAI and Anthropic is just there’ll be wrappers around the API and it just dynamically-
Dylan Patel
If model progress is not rapid, yeah. It’s becoming a commodity, right? DeepSeek V3 shows this, but also the GPT-3 chart earlier, Kurt [inaudible 04:19:14] showed this, right? Llama 3B is 1200X cheaper than GPT-3. Anyone whose business model was GPT-3 level capabilities is dead. Anyone whose business models GPT-4 level capabilities is dead.
If model progress is not rapid, yeah. It’s becoming a commodity, right? DeepSeek V3 shows this, but also the GPT-3 chart earlier, Kurt [inaudible 04:19:14] showed this, right? Llama 3B is 1200X cheaper than GPT-3. Anyone whose business model was GPT-3 level capabilities is dead. Anyone whose business models GPT-4 level capabilities is dead.
Nathan Lambert
It is a common saying that the best businesses being made now are ones that are predicated on models getting better.
It is a common saying that the best businesses being made now are ones that are predicated on models getting better.
Lex Fridman
Right. Which would be like wrappers, thing that is riding the wave of the models.
Right. Which would be like wrappers, thing that is riding the wave of the models.
Nathan Lambert
The short-term that company that could make the most money is the one that figures out what advertising targeting method works for language model generations. We have the Meta ads which are hyper-targeted in feed, not within specific pieces of content. And we have search ads that are used by Google and Amazon has been rising a lot on search. But within a return from ChatGPT, it is not clear how you get a high-quality placed ad within the output. And if you can do that with model costs coming down, you can just get super high revenue. That revenue is totally untapped and it’s not clear technically how it’s done.
The short-term that company that could make the most money is the one that figures out what advertising targeting method works for language model generations. We have the Meta ads which are hyper-targeted in feed, not within specific pieces of content. And we have search ads that are used by Google and Amazon has been rising a lot on search. But within a return from ChatGPT, it is not clear how you get a high-quality placed ad within the output. And if you can do that with model costs coming down, you can just get super high revenue. That revenue is totally untapped and it’s not clear technically how it’s done.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that is, I mean sort of the AdSense innovation that Google did, the one day you’ll have in GPT output an ad and that’s going to make billions, if not-
Yeah, that is, I mean sort of the AdSense innovation that Google did, the one day you’ll have in GPT output an ad and that’s going to make billions, if not-
Nathan Lambert
And it could be very subtle, it could be in conversation, we have voice mode now. It could be some way of making it so the voice introduces certain things. It’s much harder to measure and it takes imagination, but yeah.
And it could be very subtle, it could be in conversation, we have voice mode now. It could be some way of making it so the voice introduces certain things. It’s much harder to measure and it takes imagination, but yeah.
Lex Fridman
And it wouldn’t come off shady so that you would receive public blowback, that kind of thing. So you have to do it loud enough to where it’s clear it’s an ad and balance all of that. So that’s the open question they’re trying to solve. Anthropic and OpenAI, they need to-
And it wouldn’t come off shady so that you would receive public blowback, that kind of thing. So you have to do it loud enough to where it’s clear it’s an ad and balance all of that. So that’s the open question they’re trying to solve. Anthropic and OpenAI, they need to-
Nathan Lambert
They might not say that they’re trying-
They might not say that they’re trying-
Dylan Patel
I don’t think they care about that at all.
I don’t think they care about that at all.
Nathan Lambert
They don’t care about it right now. I think it’s places like Perplexity are experimenting on that more.
They don’t care about it right now. I think it’s places like Perplexity are experimenting on that more.
Lex Fridman
Oh, interesting. Yeah, for sure.
Oh, interesting. Yeah, for sure.
Dylan Patel
Perplexity, Google, Meta care about this. I think OpenAI and Anthropic are purely laser focused on-
Perplexity, Google, Meta care about this. I think OpenAI and Anthropic are purely laser focused on-
Lex Fridman
AGI.
AGI.
Dylan Patel
Yeah. Like agents and AGI, and if I build AGI, I can make tons of money or I can pay for everything. And it’s just predicated back on the export control thing. If you think AGI is five, 10 years away or less, these labs think it’s two, three years away. Obviously your actions are, if you assume they’re rational actors, which they are mostly what you do in a two-year AGI versus five year versus 10 years, very, very, very different. Right?
Yeah. Like agents and AGI, and if I build AGI, I can make tons of money or I can pay for everything. And it’s just predicated back on the export control thing. If you think AGI is five, 10 years away or less, these labs think it’s two, three years away. Obviously your actions are, if you assume they’re rational actors, which they are mostly what you do in a two-year AGI versus five year versus 10 years, very, very, very different. Right?
AI agents
Lex Fridman
Do you think agents are promising? We have to talk about this. This is the excitement of the year that agents are going to rev.. This is the generic hype term that a lot of business folks are using. AI agents are going to revolutionize everything.
Do you think agents are promising? We have to talk about this. This is the excitement of the year that agents are going to rev.. This is the generic hype term that a lot of business folks are using. AI agents are going to revolutionize everything.
Nathan Lambert
Okay. So mostly the term agent is obviously overblown. We’ve talked a lot about reinforcement learning as a way to train for verifiable outcomes. Agents should mean something that is open-ended and is solving a task independently on its own and able to adapt to uncertainty. There’s a lot of the term agent applied to things like Apple Intelligence, which we still don’t have after the last WWDC, which is orchestrating between apps and that type of tool use thing is something that language models can do really well. Apple Intelligence I suspect will come eventually. It’s a closed domain. It’s your messages app integrating with your photos with AI in the background. That will work. That has been described as an agent by a lot of software companies to get into the narrative.
Okay. So mostly the term agent is obviously overblown. We’ve talked a lot about reinforcement learning as a way to train for verifiable outcomes. Agents should mean something that is open-ended and is solving a task independently on its own and able to adapt to uncertainty. There’s a lot of the term agent applied to things like Apple Intelligence, which we still don’t have after the last WWDC, which is orchestrating between apps and that type of tool use thing is something that language models can do really well. Apple Intelligence I suspect will come eventually. It’s a closed domain. It’s your messages app integrating with your photos with AI in the background. That will work. That has been described as an agent by a lot of software companies to get into the narrative.
The question is what ways can we get language models to generalize to new domains and solve their own problems in real time. Maybe some tiny amount of training when they’re doing this with fine-tuning themselves or in context learning, which is the idea of storing information in a prompt. And you can use learning algorithms to update that and whether or not you believe that that is going to actually generalize to things like me saying, “Book my trip to go to Austin in two days. I have XYZ constraints,” and actually trusting it. I think there’s an HCI problem coming back for information.
Lex Fridman
Well, what’s your prediction there? Because my gut says we’re very far away from that.
Well, what’s your prediction there? Because my gut says we’re very far away from that.
Dylan Patel
I think OpenAI’s statement, I don’t know if you’ve seen the five levels where it’s chat is level one, reasoning is level two, and then agents is level three. And I think there’s a couple more levels, but it’s important to note, we were in chat for a couple years. We just theoretically got to reasoning, we’ll be here for a year or two, and then agents, but at the same time, people can try and approximate capabilities of the next level, but the agents are doing things autonomously, doing things for minutes at a time, hours at a time, et cetera, right? Reasoning is doing things for tens of seconds at a time and then coming back with an output that I still need to verify and use and try check out. And the biggest problem is of course, it’s the same thing with manufacturing. There’s the whole six sigma thing, how many nines do you get?
I think OpenAI’s statement, I don’t know if you’ve seen the five levels where it’s chat is level one, reasoning is level two, and then agents is level three. And I think there’s a couple more levels, but it’s important to note, we were in chat for a couple years. We just theoretically got to reasoning, we’ll be here for a year or two, and then agents, but at the same time, people can try and approximate capabilities of the next level, but the agents are doing things autonomously, doing things for minutes at a time, hours at a time, et cetera, right? Reasoning is doing things for tens of seconds at a time and then coming back with an output that I still need to verify and use and try check out. And the biggest problem is of course, it’s the same thing with manufacturing. There’s the whole six sigma thing, how many nines do you get?
And then you compound the nines onto each other and it’s like if you multiply by the number of steps that are six sigma, you get to a yield or something. So in semiconductor manufacturing, tens of thousands of steps, 9999999 is not enough. You multiply by that many times you actually end up with 60% yield, right? Really low yield or zero. And this is the same thing with agents, right? Chaining tasks together each time, even the best LLMs in particularly pretty good benchmarks don’t get 100%, right? They get a little bit below that because there is a lot of noise. And so how do you get to enough nines, right? This is the same thing with self-driving. We can’t have self-driving because without it being super geofenced like Google’s and even then they have a bunch of teleoperators to make sure it doesn’t get stuck. But you can’t do that because it doesn’t have enough nines.
Lex Fridman
Self-driving has quite a lot of structure because roads have rules, it’s well-defined, there’s regulation. When you’re talking about computer use for the open web, for example, or the open operating system, it’s a mess. So the possibility… I’m always skeptical of any system that is tasked with interacting with the human world, with the open messaging world.
Self-driving has quite a lot of structure because roads have rules, it’s well-defined, there’s regulation. When you’re talking about computer use for the open web, for example, or the open operating system, it’s a mess. So the possibility… I’m always skeptical of any system that is tasked with interacting with the human world, with the open messaging world.
Nathan Lambert
That’s the thing. If we can’t get intelligence that’s enough to solve the human world on its own, we can create infrastructure like the human operators for Waymo over many years that enable certain workflows.
That’s the thing. If we can’t get intelligence that’s enough to solve the human world on its own, we can create infrastructure like the human operators for Waymo over many years that enable certain workflows.
Dylan Patel
There is a company, I don’t remember it, but it is, but that’s literally their pitch is, “Yeah, we’re just going to be the human operator when agents fail and you just call us and we fix it.” Same thing an API call, and it’s hilarious.
There is a company, I don’t remember it, but it is, but that’s literally their pitch is, “Yeah, we’re just going to be the human operator when agents fail and you just call us and we fix it.” Same thing an API call, and it’s hilarious.
Nathan Lambert
There’s going to be teleoperation markets when we get human robots, which is there’s going to be somebody around the world that’s happy to fix the fact that it can’t finish loading my dishwasher when I’m unhappy with it. But that’s just going to be part of the Tesla service package.
There’s going to be teleoperation markets when we get human robots, which is there’s going to be somebody around the world that’s happy to fix the fact that it can’t finish loading my dishwasher when I’m unhappy with it. But that’s just going to be part of the Tesla service package.
Lex Fridman
I’m just imagining an AI agent talking to another AI agent. One company has an AI agent that specializes in helping other AI agents.
I’m just imagining an AI agent talking to another AI agent. One company has an AI agent that specializes in helping other AI agents.
Nathan Lambert
But if you can make things that are good at one step, you can stack them together. So that’s why if it takes a long time, we’re going to build infrastructure that enables it. You see the operator launch, they have partnerships with certain websites, with DoorDash, with OpenTable, with things like this. Those partnerships are going to let them climb really fast. Their model’s going to get really good at those things. It’s going to proof of concept that might be a network effect where more companies want to make it easier for AI. Some companies will be like, “No, let’s put blockers in place.” And this is the story of the internet we’ve seen, we see it now with training data for language models where companies are like, “No, you have to pay.” Business working it out.
But if you can make things that are good at one step, you can stack them together. So that’s why if it takes a long time, we’re going to build infrastructure that enables it. You see the operator launch, they have partnerships with certain websites, with DoorDash, with OpenTable, with things like this. Those partnerships are going to let them climb really fast. Their model’s going to get really good at those things. It’s going to proof of concept that might be a network effect where more companies want to make it easier for AI. Some companies will be like, “No, let’s put blockers in place.” And this is the story of the internet we’ve seen, we see it now with training data for language models where companies are like, “No, you have to pay.” Business working it out.
Lex Fridman
That said, I think airlines and hotels have high incentive to make their site work really well, and they usually don’t. If you look at how many clicks it takes to order airplane ticket, it’s insane.
That said, I think airlines and hotels have high incentive to make their site work really well, and they usually don’t. If you look at how many clicks it takes to order airplane ticket, it’s insane.
Nathan Lambert
You actually can’t call an American Airlines agent anymore. They don’t have a phone number.
You actually can’t call an American Airlines agent anymore. They don’t have a phone number.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s horrible on the interface front. And to imagine that agents will be able to deal with that website when I, as a human, struggle, like I have an existential crisis every time I try to book an airplane ticket. I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to build an AI agent that’s robust in that way.
I mean, it’s horrible on the interface front. And to imagine that agents will be able to deal with that website when I, as a human, struggle, like I have an existential crisis every time I try to book an airplane ticket. I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to build an AI agent that’s robust in that way.
Nathan Lambert
But think about it, United has accepted the Starlink term, which is they have to provide Starlink for free and the users are going to love it. What if one airline is like, “We’re going to take a year and we’re going to make our website have white text that works perfectly for the AIs.” Every time anyone asks about an AI flight, they buy whatever airline it is.
But think about it, United has accepted the Starlink term, which is they have to provide Starlink for free and the users are going to love it. What if one airline is like, “We’re going to take a year and we’re going to make our website have white text that works perfectly for the AIs.” Every time anyone asks about an AI flight, they buy whatever airline it is.
Dylan Patel
They’re just like, “Here’s an API and it’s only exposed to AI agents and if anyone queries it, the price is 10% higher for any flight, but we’ll let you see any of our flights and you can just book any of them. Here you go.”
They’re just like, “Here’s an API and it’s only exposed to AI agents and if anyone queries it, the price is 10% higher for any flight, but we’ll let you see any of our flights and you can just book any of them. Here you go.”
Nathan Lambert
And then that’s it.
And then that’s it.
Dylan Patel
It’s like, “Oh, and I made 10% higher price. Awesome.” And am I willing to say that for like, “Hey, book me a flight to [inaudible 04:28:18].” Right? And it’s like, yeah, whatever. I think computers and real world and the open world are really, really messy, but if you start defining the problem in narrow regions, people are going to be able to create very, very productive things and ratchet down cost massively, right? Now, crazy things like robotics in the home, those are going to be a lot harder to do just like self-driving because there’s just a billion different failure modes, but agents that can navigate a certain set of websites and do certain sets of tasks or take a photo of your fridge or upload your recipes and then it figures out what to order from Amazon/Whole Foods food delivery, and that’s going to be pretty quick and easy to do, I think. So it’s going to be a whole range of business outcomes and it’s going to be tons of optimism around people can just figure out ways to make money.
It’s like, “Oh, and I made 10% higher price. Awesome.” And am I willing to say that for like, “Hey, book me a flight to [inaudible 04:28:18].” Right? And it’s like, yeah, whatever. I think computers and real world and the open world are really, really messy, but if you start defining the problem in narrow regions, people are going to be able to create very, very productive things and ratchet down cost massively, right? Now, crazy things like robotics in the home, those are going to be a lot harder to do just like self-driving because there’s just a billion different failure modes, but agents that can navigate a certain set of websites and do certain sets of tasks or take a photo of your fridge or upload your recipes and then it figures out what to order from Amazon/Whole Foods food delivery, and that’s going to be pretty quick and easy to do, I think. So it’s going to be a whole range of business outcomes and it’s going to be tons of optimism around people can just figure out ways to make money.
Nathan Lambert
To be clear, these sandboxes already exist in research. There are people who have built clones of all the most popular websites of Google, Amazon, blah, blah, blah, to make it so that there’s… And I mean open AI probably has them internally to train these things. It’s the same as DeepMind’s robotics team for years has had clusters for robotics where you interact with robots fully, remotely. They just have a lab in London and you send tasks to it, arrange the blocks, and you do this research. Obviously there’s techs there that fix stuff, but we’ve turned these cranks of automation before.
To be clear, these sandboxes already exist in research. There are people who have built clones of all the most popular websites of Google, Amazon, blah, blah, blah, to make it so that there’s… And I mean open AI probably has them internally to train these things. It’s the same as DeepMind’s robotics team for years has had clusters for robotics where you interact with robots fully, remotely. They just have a lab in London and you send tasks to it, arrange the blocks, and you do this research. Obviously there’s techs there that fix stuff, but we’ve turned these cranks of automation before.
You go from sandbox to progress and then you add one more domain at a time and generalize, I think. And the history of NLP and language processing instruction, tuning and tasks per language model used to be like one language model did one task, and then in the instruction tuning literature, there’s this point where you start adding more and more tasks together where it just starts to generalize to every task. And we don’t know where on this curve we are. I think for reasoning with this RL and verifiable domains, we’re early, but we don’t know where the point is where you just start training on enough domains and poof, more domains just start working. And you’ve crossed the generalization barrier.
Programming and AI
Lex Fridman
Well, what do you think about the programming context? So software engineering, that’s where I personally, and I know a lot of people interact with AI the most.
Well, what do you think about the programming context? So software engineering, that’s where I personally, and I know a lot of people interact with AI the most.
Dylan Patel
There’s a lot of fear and angst too from current CS students, but that is the area where probably the most AI revenue and productivity gains have come, right? Whether it be Copilots or Cursor or what have you, or just standard ChatGPT. I know very few programmers who don’t have ChatGPT and actually many of them have the $200 tier because that’s what it’s so good for. I think that in that world, we already see it like SWE-bench. And if you’ve looked at the benchmark made by some Stanford students, I wouldn’t say it’s really hard, but I wouldn’t say it’s easy either. I think it takes someone who’s been through at least a few years of CS or a couple years of programming to do SWE-bench, well, and the models went from 4% to 60% in a year, and where are they going to go to next year? It’s going to be higher. It probably won’t be a hundred percent because again, that nines is really hard to do, but we’re going to get to some point where that’s, and then we’re going to need harder software engineering benchmarks and so on and so forth.
There’s a lot of fear and angst too from current CS students, but that is the area where probably the most AI revenue and productivity gains have come, right? Whether it be Copilots or Cursor or what have you, or just standard ChatGPT. I know very few programmers who don’t have ChatGPT and actually many of them have the $200 tier because that’s what it’s so good for. I think that in that world, we already see it like SWE-bench. And if you’ve looked at the benchmark made by some Stanford students, I wouldn’t say it’s really hard, but I wouldn’t say it’s easy either. I think it takes someone who’s been through at least a few years of CS or a couple years of programming to do SWE-bench, well, and the models went from 4% to 60% in a year, and where are they going to go to next year? It’s going to be higher. It probably won’t be a hundred percent because again, that nines is really hard to do, but we’re going to get to some point where that’s, and then we’re going to need harder software engineering benchmarks and so on and so forth.
But the way that people think of it now is it can do code completion. Easy. It can do some function generation. I have to review it. Great. But really the software engineering agents I think can be done faster sooner than any other agent because it is a verifiable domain. You can always unit test or compile, and there’s many different regions of it can inspect the whole code base at once, which no engineer really can. Only the architects can really think about this stuff, the really senior guys, and they can define stuff and then the agent can execute on it. So I think software engineering costs are going to plummet like crazy. And one interesting aspect of that is when software engineering costs are really low, you get very different markets. So in the US, you have all these platform SaaS companies, Salesforce and so on and so forth. In China, no one uses platform SaaS. Everyone just builds their own stack because software engineering is much cheaper in China and partially because people, number of STEM graduates, et cetera. So it’s generally just cheaper to do.
And so at the same time, code LLMs have been adopted much less in China because the cost of an engineer there is much lower. But what happens when every company can just invent their own business logic really cheaply and quickly? You stop using platform SaaS, you start building custom tailored solutions, you change them really quickly. Now all of a sudden your business is a little bit more efficient too, potentially because you’re not dealing with the hell that is. Some random platform SaaS company stuff not working perfectly and having to adjust workflows or random business automation cases that aren’t necessarily AI required.
It’s just logic that needs to be built that no one has built. All of these things can go happen faster. And so I think software and then the other domain is industrial, chemical, mechanical engineers suck at coding just generally. And their tools like semiconductor engineers, their tools are 20 years old. All the tools run on XP including ASML lithography tools run on Windows XP. And a lot of the analysis happens in Excel, right? It’s just like, “Guys, you guys can move 20 years forward with all the data you have and gathered and do a lot better.” You need the engineering skills for software engineering to be delivered to the actual domain expert engineer. So I think that’s the area where I’m super-duper bullish of generally AI creating value.
Nathan Lambert
The big picture is that I don’t think it’s going to be a cliff. I think a really good example of how growth changes is when Meta added stories. So Snapchat was on an exponential, they added stories, it flatlined. Software engineers then up until the right, AI is going to come in, it’s probably just going to be flat. It’s not like everyone’s going to lose their job. It’s hard because the supply corrects more slowly. So the amount of students is still growing, and that’ll correct on a multi-year, like a year delay, but the amount of jobs will just turn and then maybe in 20, 40 years, it’ll be well down. But in the few years, there’ll never going to be the snap moment where it’s like software engineers aren’t useful.
The big picture is that I don’t think it’s going to be a cliff. I think a really good example of how growth changes is when Meta added stories. So Snapchat was on an exponential, they added stories, it flatlined. Software engineers then up until the right, AI is going to come in, it’s probably just going to be flat. It’s not like everyone’s going to lose their job. It’s hard because the supply corrects more slowly. So the amount of students is still growing, and that’ll correct on a multi-year, like a year delay, but the amount of jobs will just turn and then maybe in 20, 40 years, it’ll be well down. But in the few years, there’ll never going to be the snap moment where it’s like software engineers aren’t useful.
Lex Fridman
I think also the nature of what it means to be a programmer and what kind of jobs programmers do changes, because I think there needs to be a human in the loop of everything you’ve talked about. There’s a really important human in that picture of correcting the code, fixing-
I think also the nature of what it means to be a programmer and what kind of jobs programmers do changes, because I think there needs to be a human in the loop of everything you’ve talked about. There’s a really important human in that picture of correcting the code, fixing-
Dylan Patel
Thinking larger than the context length.
Thinking larger than the context length.
Lex Fridman
And debugging also, like debugging by reading the code, understanding the steering the system. No, no, no. You missed the point. Adding more to the prompt like, yes, adding the human-
And debugging also, like debugging by reading the code, understanding the steering the system. No, no, no. You missed the point. Adding more to the prompt like, yes, adding the human-
Nathan Lambert
Designing the perfect Google button. Google’s famous for having people design buttons that are so perfect, and it’s like how is AI going to do that? They could give you all the ideas. Perfect, fine.
Designing the perfect Google button. Google’s famous for having people design buttons that are so perfect, and it’s like how is AI going to do that? They could give you all the ideas. Perfect, fine.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s the thing. You can call it taste. One thing humans can do is figure out what other humans enjoy better than AI systems. That’s where the preference you loading that in. But ultimately, humans are the greatest preference generator. That’s where the preference comes from.
I mean, that’s the thing. You can call it taste. One thing humans can do is figure out what other humans enjoy better than AI systems. That’s where the preference you loading that in. But ultimately, humans are the greatest preference generator. That’s where the preference comes from.
Nathan Lambert
And humans are actually very good at reading or judging between two things versus… This goes back to the core of what RLHF and preference tuning is that it’s hard to generate a good answer for a lot of problems, but it’s easy to see which one is better. And that’s how we’re using humans for AI now is judging which one is better, and that’s what software engineering could look like. The PR review, here’s a few options, here are some potential pros and cons, and they’re going to be judges.
And humans are actually very good at reading or judging between two things versus… This goes back to the core of what RLHF and preference tuning is that it’s hard to generate a good answer for a lot of problems, but it’s easy to see which one is better. And that’s how we’re using humans for AI now is judging which one is better, and that’s what software engineering could look like. The PR review, here’s a few options, here are some potential pros and cons, and they’re going to be judges.
Lex Fridman
I think the thing I would very much recommend is programmers start using AI and embracing that role of the supervisor of the AI system and partner the AI system versus writing from scratch or not learning coding at all and just generating stuff because I think there actually has to be a pretty high level of expertise as a programmer to be able to manage increasingly intelligent systems.
I think the thing I would very much recommend is programmers start using AI and embracing that role of the supervisor of the AI system and partner the AI system versus writing from scratch or not learning coding at all and just generating stuff because I think there actually has to be a pretty high level of expertise as a programmer to be able to manage increasingly intelligent systems.
Dylan Patel
I think it’s that and then becoming a domain expert in something.
I think it’s that and then becoming a domain expert in something.
Lex Fridman
Sure. Yeah.
Sure. Yeah.
Dylan Patel
Because seriously, if you go look at aerospace or semiconductors or chemical engineering, everyone is using really crappy platforms, really old software. The job of a data scientist is a joke in many cases. In many cases, it’s very real, but it’s like bring what the forefront of human capabilities are to your domain. And even if the forefront is from the AI, your domain, you’re at the forefront. So it’s like you have to be at the forefront of something and then leverage the rising tide that is AI for everything else.
Because seriously, if you go look at aerospace or semiconductors or chemical engineering, everyone is using really crappy platforms, really old software. The job of a data scientist is a joke in many cases. In many cases, it’s very real, but it’s like bring what the forefront of human capabilities are to your domain. And even if the forefront is from the AI, your domain, you’re at the forefront. So it’s like you have to be at the forefront of something and then leverage the rising tide that is AI for everything else.
Lex Fridman
Oh, yeah. There’s so many low hanging fruit everywhere in terms of where software can help automate a thing or digitize a thing in the legal system. That’s why DOGE is exciting. I got to hang out with a bunch of the DOGE folks, and I mean, government is so old school. It’s like begging for the modernization of software, of organizing the data, all this kind of stuff. I mean, in that case it’s by design because bureaucracy protects centers of power and so on. But software breaks down those barriers, so it hurts those that are holding onto power, but ultimately benefits humanity. So there’s a bunch of domains of that kind. One thing we didn’t fully finish talking about is open source. So first of all, congrats. You released a new model.
Oh, yeah. There’s so many low hanging fruit everywhere in terms of where software can help automate a thing or digitize a thing in the legal system. That’s why DOGE is exciting. I got to hang out with a bunch of the DOGE folks, and I mean, government is so old school. It’s like begging for the modernization of software, of organizing the data, all this kind of stuff. I mean, in that case it’s by design because bureaucracy protects centers of power and so on. But software breaks down those barriers, so it hurts those that are holding onto power, but ultimately benefits humanity. So there’s a bunch of domains of that kind. One thing we didn’t fully finish talking about is open source. So first of all, congrats. You released a new model.
Open source
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, this is-
Yeah, this is-
Lex Fridman
Tülu.
Tülu.
Nathan Lambert
I’ll explain what a tülu is. A tülu is a hybrid camel when you breed a dromedary with a Bactrian camel. Back in the early days after ChatGPT, there was a big wave of models coming out like Alpaca, Vicuna, et cetera, that were all named after various mammalian species. Tülu, the brand, is multiple years old, which comes from that.
I’ll explain what a tülu is. A tülu is a hybrid camel when you breed a dromedary with a Bactrian camel. Back in the early days after ChatGPT, there was a big wave of models coming out like Alpaca, Vicuna, et cetera, that were all named after various mammalian species. Tülu, the brand, is multiple years old, which comes from that.
And we’ve been playing at the frontiers of post-training with open source code. And this first part of this release was in the fall where we’ve built on Llama’s, open models, open weight models, and then we add in our fully open code or fully open data. There’s a popular benchmark that is Chatbot Arena. And that’s generally the metric by which how these chat models are evaluated. And it’s humans compare random models from different organizations. And if you looked at the leaderboard in November or December, among the top 60 models from tens to twenties of organizations, none of them had open code or data for just post-training.
Among that, even fewer or none have pre-training data and code available. Post-training is much more accessible at this time. It’s still pretty cheap, and you can do it. And the thing is, how high can we push this number where people have access to all the code and data? So that’s kind of the motivation of the project. We draw in lessons from Llama. Nvidia had a Nemotron model where the recipe for their post-training was fairly open with some data and a paper, and it’s putting all these together to try to create a recipe that people can fine tune models like GPT-4 to their domain.
Lex Fridman
To be clear, in the case of Tülu, maybe you can talk about Llama too, but in the case of Tülu, you’re taking Llama 3, 405B.
To be clear, in the case of Tülu, maybe you can talk about Llama too, but in the case of Tülu, you’re taking Llama 3, 405B.
Nathan Lambert
Tülu has been a series of recipes for post-training. So we’ve done multiple models over years.
Tülu has been a series of recipes for post-training. So we’ve done multiple models over years.
Lex Fridman
And so you’re open sourcing everything.
And so you’re open sourcing everything.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. If you start with an open weight based model, their whole model technically isn’t open source because you don’t know what Llama put into it, which is why we have the separate thing that we’ll get to, but it’s just getting parts of the pipeline where people can zoom in and customize. I know I hear from startups and businesses, they’re like, “Okay, I can take this post-training-“
Yeah. If you start with an open weight based model, their whole model technically isn’t open source because you don’t know what Llama put into it, which is why we have the separate thing that we’ll get to, but it’s just getting parts of the pipeline where people can zoom in and customize. I know I hear from startups and businesses, they’re like, “Okay, I can take this post-training-“
Nathan Lambert
… I know I hear from startups and businesses, they’re like, “Okay, I can take this post-training and try to apply it to my domain.” We talk about verifiers a lot. We use this idea which is reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards RLVR, kind of similar to RLHF. And we applied it to MAP and the model today, which is we applied it to the Llama 405B base model from last year. And we have our other stuff. We have our instruction tuning and our preference tuning. But the math thing is interesting, which is it’s easier to improve this math benchmark. There’s a benchmark, M-A-T-H, MATH, all capitals, tough name on the benchmark name is the area that you’re evaluating. We’re researchers, we’re not brand strategists.
… I know I hear from startups and businesses, they’re like, “Okay, I can take this post-training and try to apply it to my domain.” We talk about verifiers a lot. We use this idea which is reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards RLVR, kind of similar to RLHF. And we applied it to MAP and the model today, which is we applied it to the Llama 405B base model from last year. And we have our other stuff. We have our instruction tuning and our preference tuning. But the math thing is interesting, which is it’s easier to improve this math benchmark. There’s a benchmark, M-A-T-H, MATH, all capitals, tough name on the benchmark name is the area that you’re evaluating. We’re researchers, we’re not brand strategists.
And this is something that the DeepSeek paper talked about as well is at this bigger model, it’s easier to elicit powerful capabilities with this RL training. And then they distill it down from that big model to the small model. And this model we released today, we saw the same thing. We’re at AI2, we don’t have a ton of compute. We can’t train 405B models all the time. So we just did a few runs and they tend to work. And it just shows that there’s a lot of room for people to play in these things and that’s –
Dylan Patel
And they crushed Llama’s actual release, they’re way better than it.
And they crushed Llama’s actual release, they’re way better than it.
Nathan Lambert
… Yeah. So our eval numbers, I mean we have extra months in this, but our eval numbers are much better than the Llama instruct model that they released.
… Yeah. So our eval numbers, I mean we have extra months in this, but our eval numbers are much better than the Llama instruct model that they released.
Lex Fridman
And then you also said better than DeepSeek V3?
And then you also said better than DeepSeek V3?
Nathan Lambert
Yeah, on our eval benchmark. DeepSeek V3 is really similar. We have a safety benchmark to understand if it will say harmful things and things like that. And that’s what draws down most of the way. It’s still-
Yeah, on our eval benchmark. DeepSeek V3 is really similar. We have a safety benchmark to understand if it will say harmful things and things like that. And that’s what draws down most of the way. It’s still-
Dylan Patel
It’s like an amalgamation of multiple benchmarks or what do you mean?
It’s like an amalgamation of multiple benchmarks or what do you mean?
Nathan Lambert
… Yeah, so we have a 10 evaluator. This is standard practice in post-training is you choose your evaluations you care about. In academics, in smaller labs you’ll have fewer evaluations. In companies, you’ll have a really one domain that you really care about. In Frontier Labs, you’ll have tens to 20s to maybe even 100 evaluations of specific things. So we choose a representative suite of things that look like chat, precise instruction following, which is like respond only in emojis, just model follow weird things like that, math, code. And you create a suite like this. So safety would be one of 10 in that type of suite where you have what does the broader community of AI care about? And for example, in comparison to DeepSeek it would be something like our average eval for our model would be 80, including safety and similar without. And DeepSeek would be like 79% average score without safety and their safety score would bring it down to like 70 or there abouts.
… Yeah, so we have a 10 evaluator. This is standard practice in post-training is you choose your evaluations you care about. In academics, in smaller labs you’ll have fewer evaluations. In companies, you’ll have a really one domain that you really care about. In Frontier Labs, you’ll have tens to 20s to maybe even 100 evaluations of specific things. So we choose a representative suite of things that look like chat, precise instruction following, which is like respond only in emojis, just model follow weird things like that, math, code. And you create a suite like this. So safety would be one of 10 in that type of suite where you have what does the broader community of AI care about? And for example, in comparison to DeepSeek it would be something like our average eval for our model would be 80, including safety and similar without. And DeepSeek would be like 79% average score without safety and their safety score would bring it down to like 70 or there abouts.
Dylan Patel
Oh, so you’d beat them even ignoring safety.
Oh, so you’d beat them even ignoring safety.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah. So this is something that internally, it’s like I don’t want to win only by how you shape the eval benchmark. So if there’s something that’s like people may or may not care about safety in their model, safety can come downstream, safety can be when you host the model for an API, like safety is addressed in a spectrum of locations in AI applications. So it’s like if you want to say that you have the best recipe, you can’t just gate it on these things that some people might not want.
Yeah. So this is something that internally, it’s like I don’t want to win only by how you shape the eval benchmark. So if there’s something that’s like people may or may not care about safety in their model, safety can come downstream, safety can be when you host the model for an API, like safety is addressed in a spectrum of locations in AI applications. So it’s like if you want to say that you have the best recipe, you can’t just gate it on these things that some people might not want.
And this is, it’s like the time of progress and we benefit if we can release a model later, we have more time to learn new techniques like this RL technique, we had started this in the fall, it’s now really popular reasoning models. The next thing to do for open source post-training is to scale up verifiers, to scale up data to replicate some of DeepSeek’s results. And it’s awesome that we have a paper to draw on and it makes it a lot easier. And that’s the type of things that is going on among academic and closed frontier research in AI.
Lex Fridman
Since you’re pushing open source, what do you think is the future of it? Do you think DeepSeek actually changes things since it’s open source or open weight or is pushing the open source movement into the open direction?
Since you’re pushing open source, what do you think is the future of it? Do you think DeepSeek actually changes things since it’s open source or open weight or is pushing the open source movement into the open direction?
Nathan Lambert
This goes very back to license discussion. So DeepSeek R1 with a friendly license is a major reset. So it’s like the first time that we’ve had a really clear frontier model that is open weights and with a commercially friendly license with no restrictions on downstream use cases since that data distillation, whatever.This has never been the case at all in the history of AI in the last few years since ChatGPT. There have been models that are off the frontier or models with weird licenses that you can’t really use them.
This goes very back to license discussion. So DeepSeek R1 with a friendly license is a major reset. So it’s like the first time that we’ve had a really clear frontier model that is open weights and with a commercially friendly license with no restrictions on downstream use cases since that data distillation, whatever.This has never been the case at all in the history of AI in the last few years since ChatGPT. There have been models that are off the frontier or models with weird licenses that you can’t really use them.
Dylan Patel
So is it Meta’s license pretty much permissible except for five companies?
So is it Meta’s license pretty much permissible except for five companies?
Nathan Lambert
So this goes to what open source AI is, which is there’s also use case restrictions in the Llama license, which says you can’t use it for specific things. So if you come from an open source software background, you would say that that is not an open source license.
So this goes to what open source AI is, which is there’s also use case restrictions in the Llama license, which says you can’t use it for specific things. So if you come from an open source software background, you would say that that is not an open source license.
Dylan Patel
What kind of things are those, though? Are they like-
What kind of things are those, though? Are they like-
Nathan Lambert
At this point, I can’t pull them off the top of my head, but it’d be like-
At this point, I can’t pull them off the top of my head, but it’d be like-
Lex Fridman
Stuff like competitors?
Stuff like competitors?
Nathan Lambert
It used to be military use was one and they removed that for scale, it’ll be like CSAM like child abuse material. That’s the type of thing that is forbidden there. But that’s enough from an open source background to say it’s not an open source license.And also the Llama license has this horrible thing where you have to name your model Llama if you touch it to the Llama model. So it’s like the branding thing. So if a company uses Llama, technically the license says that they should say built with Llama at the bottom of their application. And from a marketing perspective, that just hurts. I could suck it up as a researcher, I’m like, oh, it’s fine. It says Llama dash on all of our materials for this release. But this is why we need truly open models, which is we don’t know DeepSeek R1’s data, but-
It used to be military use was one and they removed that for scale, it’ll be like CSAM like child abuse material. That’s the type of thing that is forbidden there. But that’s enough from an open source background to say it’s not an open source license.And also the Llama license has this horrible thing where you have to name your model Llama if you touch it to the Llama model. So it’s like the branding thing. So if a company uses Llama, technically the license says that they should say built with Llama at the bottom of their application. And from a marketing perspective, that just hurts. I could suck it up as a researcher, I’m like, oh, it’s fine. It says Llama dash on all of our materials for this release. But this is why we need truly open models, which is we don’t know DeepSeek R1’s data, but-
Dylan Patel
Wait, so you’re saying I can’t make a cheap copy of Llama and pretend it’s mine, but I can do this with the Chinese model?
Wait, so you’re saying I can’t make a cheap copy of Llama and pretend it’s mine, but I can do this with the Chinese model?
Nathan Lambert
… Hell, yeah. That’s what I’m saying. And that’s why it’s like we want this whole open language model thing, he Olmo thing is to try to keep the model where everything is open with the data as close to the frontier as possible. So we’re compute constrained, we’re personnel constrained. We rely on getting insights from people like John Schulman tells us to do URL and outputs. We can make these big jumps, but it just takes a long time to push the frontier of open source. And fundamentally, I would say that that’s because open source AI does not have the same feedback loops as open source software. We talked about open source software for security. Also it’s just because you build something once and can reuse it. If you go into a new company, there’s so many benefits, but if you open source a language model, you have this data sitting around, you have this training code, it’s not like that easy for someone to come and build on and improve because you need to spend a lot on compute, you need to have expertise.
… Hell, yeah. That’s what I’m saying. And that’s why it’s like we want this whole open language model thing, he Olmo thing is to try to keep the model where everything is open with the data as close to the frontier as possible. So we’re compute constrained, we’re personnel constrained. We rely on getting insights from people like John Schulman tells us to do URL and outputs. We can make these big jumps, but it just takes a long time to push the frontier of open source. And fundamentally, I would say that that’s because open source AI does not have the same feedback loops as open source software. We talked about open source software for security. Also it’s just because you build something once and can reuse it. If you go into a new company, there’s so many benefits, but if you open source a language model, you have this data sitting around, you have this training code, it’s not like that easy for someone to come and build on and improve because you need to spend a lot on compute, you need to have expertise.
So until there are feedback loops of open source AI, it seems like mostly an ideological mission. People like Mark Zuckerberg, which is like America needs this and I agree with him, but in the time where the motivation ideologically is high, we need to capitalize and build this ecosystem around, what benefits do you get from seeing the language model data? And there’s not a lot about that. We’re going to try to launch a demo soon where you can look at an OMO model and a query and see what pre-training data is similar to it, which is legally risky and complicated, but it’s like what does it mean to see the data that the AI was trained on? It’s hard to parse. It’s terabytes of files. It’s like I don’t know what I’m going to find in there, but that’s what we need to do as an ecosystem if people want open source AI to be financially useful.
Stargate
Lex Fridman
We didn’t really talk about Stargate. I would love to get your opinion on what the new administration, the Trump administration, everything that’s being done from the America side and supporting AI infrastructure and the efforts of the different AI companies. What do you think about Stargate? What are we supposed to think about Stargate and does Sam have the money?
We didn’t really talk about Stargate. I would love to get your opinion on what the new administration, the Trump administration, everything that’s being done from the America side and supporting AI infrastructure and the efforts of the different AI companies. What do you think about Stargate? What are we supposed to think about Stargate and does Sam have the money?
Dylan Patel
Yeah, so I think Stargate is a opaque thing. It definitely doesn’t have $500 billion, doesn’t even have $100 billion dollars. So what they announced is this $500 billion number, Larry Ellison, Sam Altman and Trump said it. They thanked Trump and Trump did do some executive actions that do significantly improve the ability for this to be built faster. One of the executive actions he did is on federal land, you can just basically build data centers in power pretty much like that. And then permitting process is basically gone or you file after the fact. So again, I had of schizo take earlier, another schizo take, if you’ve ever been to the Presidio in San Francisco, beautiful area, you could build a power plant in a data center there if you wanted to because it is federal land. It used to be a military base, but obviously this would people off. It’s a good fit. Anyways, Trump has made it much easier to do this, right? Generally, Texas has the only unregulated grid in the nation as well.
Yeah, so I think Stargate is a opaque thing. It definitely doesn’t have $500 billion, doesn’t even have $100 billion dollars. So what they announced is this $500 billion number, Larry Ellison, Sam Altman and Trump said it. They thanked Trump and Trump did do some executive actions that do significantly improve the ability for this to be built faster. One of the executive actions he did is on federal land, you can just basically build data centers in power pretty much like that. And then permitting process is basically gone or you file after the fact. So again, I had of schizo take earlier, another schizo take, if you’ve ever been to the Presidio in San Francisco, beautiful area, you could build a power plant in a data center there if you wanted to because it is federal land. It used to be a military base, but obviously this would people off. It’s a good fit. Anyways, Trump has made it much easier to do this, right? Generally, Texas has the only unregulated grid in the nation as well.
Lex Fridman
Let’s go Texas.
Let’s go Texas.
Dylan Patel
And so therefore ERCOT enables people to build faster as well in addition, the federal regulations are coming down and so Stargate is predicated, and this is why that whole show happened. Now how they came up with a $500 billion number is beyond me. How they came up with $100 billion dollars number makes sense to some extent. And there’s actually a good table in here that I would like to show in that Stargate piece that I had. It’s the most recent one. So anyways, Stargate, it’s basically, it’s a table about cost. There, you passed it already. It’s that one. So this table is kind of explaining what happens. So Stargate is in Abilene, Texas, the first $100 billion of it. That site is 2.2 gigawatts of power in, about 1.8 gigawatts of power consumed. Per GPU, Oracle is already building the first part of this before Stargate came about. To be clear, they’ve been building it for a year.
And so therefore ERCOT enables people to build faster as well in addition, the federal regulations are coming down and so Stargate is predicated, and this is why that whole show happened. Now how they came up with a $500 billion number is beyond me. How they came up with $100 billion dollars number makes sense to some extent. And there’s actually a good table in here that I would like to show in that Stargate piece that I had. It’s the most recent one. So anyways, Stargate, it’s basically, it’s a table about cost. There, you passed it already. It’s that one. So this table is kind of explaining what happens. So Stargate is in Abilene, Texas, the first $100 billion of it. That site is 2.2 gigawatts of power in, about 1.8 gigawatts of power consumed. Per GPU, Oracle is already building the first part of this before Stargate came about. To be clear, they’ve been building it for a year.
They tried to rent it to Elon in fact, but Elon was like, “It’s too slow. I need it faster.” So then he went and did his Memphis thing, and so OpenAI was able to get it with this weird joint venture called Stargate. They initially signed a deal with just Oracle for the first section of this cluster. This first section of this cluster is roughly $5 billion to $6 billion of server spend, and then there’s another billion or so of data center spend. And then likewise, if you fill out that entire 1.8 gigawatts with the next two generations of NVIDIA’s chips, GB 200, GB 300, VR 200, and you fill it out completely, that ends up being roughly $50 billion of server cost. Plus there’s data center costs plus maintenance costs, plus operation costs plus all these things. And that’s where OpenAI gets to their $100 billion announcement that they had. Because they talked about $100 billion dollars is phase one. That’s this Abilene, Texas data center, right? $ 100 billion of “total cost of ownership.” So it’s not CapEx, it’s not investment, it’s a $100 billion of total cost of ownership.
And then there will be future phases. They’re looking at other sites that are even bigger than this 2.2 gigawatts by the way, in Texas and elsewhere. And so they’re not completely ignoring that, but the number of $100 billion that they save for phase one, which I do think will happen. They don’t even have the money for that. Furthermore, it’s not $100 billion dollars, it’s $50 billion of spend and then $50 billion of operational cost power, et cetera, rental pricing, et cetera, because they’re renting it. OpenAI is renting the GPUs from the Stargate joint venture. What money do they actually have, right? SoftBank is going to invest, Oracle is going to invest. OpenAI is going to invest. OpenAI is on the line for $19 billion. Everyone knows that they’ve only got 46 billion in their last round and $4 billion of debt. But there, there’s news of Softbank maybe investing $25 billion into OpenAI. So that’s part of it. So $19 billion can come from there.
So OpenAI does not have the money at all to be clear. Ink is not dried on anything. OpenAI has $0 for this, 50 billion in which they’re legally obligated to put 19 billion of CapEx into the joint venture, and then the rest they’re going to pay via renting the GPUs from the joint venture. And then there’s Oracle. Oracle has a lot of money. They’re building the first section completely. They were spending for it themselves, this $6 billion of CapEx, $10 billion of TCO, and they were going to do that first section. They’re paying for that, right? As far as the rest of the section, I don’t know how much Larry wants to spend. At any point he could pull out. This is again, it is completely voluntary. So at any point, there’s no signed ink on this, but he potentially could contribute tens of billions of dollars to be clear. He’s got the money, Oracle’s got the money.
And then there’s like MGX is the UAE fund, which technically has $1.5 trillion for investing in AI. But again, I don’t know how real that money is and there’s no ink signed for this, SoftBank does not have $25 billion of cash. They have to sell down their stake in arm, which is the leader in CPUs and they IPO’d it. This is obviously what they’ve always wanted to do, they just didn’t know where they’d redeploy the capital. Selling down the stake in ARM makes a ton of sense. So they can sell that down and invest in this if they want to and invest in OpenAI if they want to. As far as money secured, the first 100,000 GB 200 cluster can be funded. Everything else after that-
Lex Fridman
Up in the air.
Up in the air.
Dylan Patel
… is up in the air. Money’s coming. I believe the money will come. I personally do.
… is up in the air. Money’s coming. I believe the money will come. I personally do.
Lex Fridman
It’s a belief.
It’s a belief.
Dylan Patel
It’s a belief that they’re going to release better models and be able to raise more money. But the actual reality is that Elon’s right, the money does not exist.
It’s a belief that they’re going to release better models and be able to raise more money. But the actual reality is that Elon’s right, the money does not exist.
Lex Fridman
What does the US government have to do with anything? What does Trump have to do with everything? He’s just a hype man?
What does the US government have to do with anything? What does Trump have to do with everything? He’s just a hype man?
Dylan Patel
Trump, he’s reducing the regulation so they can build it faster and he’s allowing them to do it because any investment of this side is going to involve antitrust stuff. So obviously he’s going to allow them to do it. He’s going to enable the regulations to actually allow it to be built. I don’t believe there’s any US government dollars being spent on this though.
Trump, he’s reducing the regulation so they can build it faster and he’s allowing them to do it because any investment of this side is going to involve antitrust stuff. So obviously he’s going to allow them to do it. He’s going to enable the regulations to actually allow it to be built. I don’t believe there’s any US government dollars being spent on this though.
Lex Fridman
So I think he’s also just creating a general vibe that regulation will go down and this is the era of building. So if you’re a builder, you want to create stuff, you want to launch stuff, this is the time to do it.
So I think he’s also just creating a general vibe that regulation will go down and this is the era of building. So if you’re a builder, you want to create stuff, you want to launch stuff, this is the time to do it.
Dylan Patel
And so we’ve had this 1.8 gigawatt data center in our data for over a year now, and we’ve been sending it to all of our clients, including many of these companies that are building the multi gigawatts. But that is at a level that’s not quite, maybe executives seeing $500 billion, $100 billion dollars, and then everyone’s asking them. So it could spur an even faster arms race. Because there’s already an arms race, but this 100 billion, $500 billion number, Trump talking about it on TV, it could spur the arm race to be even faster and more investors to flood in and et cetera, et cetera. So I think you’re right in that sense that open AI or Trump is sort of championing, people are going to build more and his actions are going to let people build more.
And so we’ve had this 1.8 gigawatt data center in our data for over a year now, and we’ve been sending it to all of our clients, including many of these companies that are building the multi gigawatts. But that is at a level that’s not quite, maybe executives seeing $500 billion, $100 billion dollars, and then everyone’s asking them. So it could spur an even faster arms race. Because there’s already an arms race, but this 100 billion, $500 billion number, Trump talking about it on TV, it could spur the arm race to be even faster and more investors to flood in and et cetera, et cetera. So I think you’re right in that sense that open AI or Trump is sort of championing, people are going to build more and his actions are going to let people build more.
Future of AI
Lex Fridman
What are you excited about these several years that are upcoming in terms of cluster build outs, in terms of breakthroughs in AI, the best possible future you can imagine in the next couple of years, two, three, four years? What does that look like? It could be very specific technical things like breakthroughs on post-training or it could be just size, big impressive clusters.
What are you excited about these several years that are upcoming in terms of cluster build outs, in terms of breakthroughs in AI, the best possible future you can imagine in the next couple of years, two, three, four years? What does that look like? It could be very specific technical things like breakthroughs on post-training or it could be just size, big impressive clusters.
Dylan Patel
I really enjoy tracking supply chain and who’s involved and what, I really do. It’s really fun to see the numbers, the cost, who’s building what capacity, helping them figure out how much capacity they should build winning deals, strategic stuff. That’s really cool. I think technologically, there’s a lot around the networking side that really excites me with optics and electronics kind of getting closer and closer, whether it be co-packaged optics or some sort of forms of new forms of switching.
I really enjoy tracking supply chain and who’s involved and what, I really do. It’s really fun to see the numbers, the cost, who’s building what capacity, helping them figure out how much capacity they should build winning deals, strategic stuff. That’s really cool. I think technologically, there’s a lot around the networking side that really excites me with optics and electronics kind of getting closer and closer, whether it be co-packaged optics or some sort of forms of new forms of switching.
Lex Fridman
This is internal to a cluster?
This is internal to a cluster?
Dylan Patel
A cluster, yeah. Also multi-data center training. People are putting so much fiber between these data centers and lighting it up with so much bandwidth that there’s a lot of interesting stuff happening on that end. Telecom has been really boring since 5G, and now it’s really exciting again on the hardware side.
A cluster, yeah. Also multi-data center training. People are putting so much fiber between these data centers and lighting it up with so much bandwidth that there’s a lot of interesting stuff happening on that end. Telecom has been really boring since 5G, and now it’s really exciting again on the hardware side.
Lex Fridman
Can you educate me a little bit about the speed of things? So the speed of memory versus the speed of interconnect versus the speed of fiber between data centers. Are these orders of magnitude different? Can we at some point converge towards a place where it all just feels like one computer?
Can you educate me a little bit about the speed of things? So the speed of memory versus the speed of interconnect versus the speed of fiber between data centers. Are these orders of magnitude different? Can we at some point converge towards a place where it all just feels like one computer?
Dylan Patel
No, I don’t think that’s possible. It’s only going to get harder to program, not easier. It’s only going to get more difficult and complicated and more layers. The general image that people like to have is this hierarchy of memory, so on-chip is really close, localized within the chip, you have registers and those are shared between some compute elements and then you’ll have caches which are shared between more compute elements. Then you have memory like HBM or DRAM like DDRR memory or whatever it is, and that’s shared between the whole chip. And then you can have pools of memory that are shared between many chips and then storage and you keep zoning out. The access latency across data centers, within the data center within a chip is different. So you’re always going to have different programming paradigms for this. It’s not going to be easy. Programming this stuff is going to be hard, maybe AI can help with programming this.
No, I don’t think that’s possible. It’s only going to get harder to program, not easier. It’s only going to get more difficult and complicated and more layers. The general image that people like to have is this hierarchy of memory, so on-chip is really close, localized within the chip, you have registers and those are shared between some compute elements and then you’ll have caches which are shared between more compute elements. Then you have memory like HBM or DRAM like DDRR memory or whatever it is, and that’s shared between the whole chip. And then you can have pools of memory that are shared between many chips and then storage and you keep zoning out. The access latency across data centers, within the data center within a chip is different. So you’re always going to have different programming paradigms for this. It’s not going to be easy. Programming this stuff is going to be hard, maybe AI can help with programming this.
But the way to think about it is that there is sort of the more elements you add to a task, you don’t get strong scaling. If I double the number of chips, I don’t get two exit performance. This is just a reality of computing because there’s inefficiencies.And there’s a lot of interesting work being done to make it not to make it more linear, whether it’s making the chips more networked together more tightly or cool programming models or cool algorithmic things that you can do on the model side. DeepSeek did some of these really cool innovations because they were limited on interconnect, but they still needed to parallelize. Everyone’s always doing stuff. Google’s got a bunch of work and everyone’s got a bunch of work about this. That stuff is super exciting on the model and workload and innovation side. Hardware, solid-state transformers are interesting. For the power side, all sorts of stuff on batteries and there’s all sorts of stuff on.
I think if you look at every layer of the compute stack, whether it goes from lithography and etch all the way to fabrication, to optics, to networking, to power, to transformers, to cooling, to a networking, and you just go on up and up and up and up the stack, even air conditioners for data centers are innovating. Copper cables are innovating. You wouldn’t think it, but copper cables, there’s some innovations happening there with the density of how you can pack them and it’s like all of these layers of the stack, all the way up to the models, human progress is at a pace that’s never been seen before.
Lex Fridman
I’m just imagining you sitting back in a layer somewhere with screens everywhere, just monitoring the supply chain where all these clusters, all the information you’re gathering, you’re incredible.
I’m just imagining you sitting back in a layer somewhere with screens everywhere, just monitoring the supply chain where all these clusters, all the information you’re gathering, you’re incredible.
Dylan Patel
There’s a big team, there’s a big team.
There’s a big team, there’s a big team.
Lex Fridman
You do quite incredible work with semi analysis. I mean just keeping your finger on the pulse of human civilization in the digital world. It’s pretty cool just to watch, feel that.
You do quite incredible work with semi analysis. I mean just keeping your finger on the pulse of human civilization in the digital world. It’s pretty cool just to watch, feel that.
Dylan Patel
Yeah, thank you. I guess.
Yeah, thank you. I guess.
Lex Fridman
Feel all of us doing shit. Epic shit.
Feel all of us doing shit. Epic shit.
Dylan Patel
The AGI, yeah.
The AGI, yeah.
Lex Fridman
I feel from meme to reality. Nathan, is there breakthroughs that you’re looking forward to potentially?
I feel from meme to reality. Nathan, is there breakthroughs that you’re looking forward to potentially?
Nathan Lambert
I had a while to think about this while listening to Dylan’s beautiful response.
I had a while to think about this while listening to Dylan’s beautiful response.
Dylan Patel
He did listen to me. He was so into it.
He did listen to me. He was so into it.
Nathan Lambert
No, I knew this was coming and it’s like realistically training models is very fun because there’s so much low-hanging fruit. And the thing that makes my job entertaining, I train models, I write analysis about what’s happening with models and it’s fun because there is obviously so much more progress to be had. And the real motivation, why I do this somewhere where I can share things is that there’s just, I don’t trust people that are like, “Trust me bro, we’re going to make AI good.”
No, I knew this was coming and it’s like realistically training models is very fun because there’s so much low-hanging fruit. And the thing that makes my job entertaining, I train models, I write analysis about what’s happening with models and it’s fun because there is obviously so much more progress to be had. And the real motivation, why I do this somewhere where I can share things is that there’s just, I don’t trust people that are like, “Trust me bro, we’re going to make AI good.”
It’s like we’re the ones that it’s like, we’re going to do it and you can trust us and we’re just going to have all the AI, and it’s just like, I would like a future where more people have a say in what AI is and can understand it, and it’s a little bit less fun that it’s not a positive thing of this is just all really fun. Training models is fun and bring people in as fun, but it’s really AI if it is going to be the most powerful technology of my lifetime, it’s like we need to have a lot of people involved in making that and-
Lex Fridman
Making it open helps with that. As accessible as possible, as open as possible, yeah.
Making it open helps with that. As accessible as possible, as open as possible, yeah.
Nathan Lambert
… In my read of the last few years is that more openness would help the AI ecosystem in terms of having more people understand what’s going on. Rather that’s researchers from non-AI fields to governments to everything. It doesn’t mean that openness will always be the answer. I think then it’ll reassess of what is the biggest problem facing AI and tack on a different angle to the wild ride that we’re on.
… In my read of the last few years is that more openness would help the AI ecosystem in terms of having more people understand what’s going on. Rather that’s researchers from non-AI fields to governments to everything. It doesn’t mean that openness will always be the answer. I think then it’ll reassess of what is the biggest problem facing AI and tack on a different angle to the wild ride that we’re on.
Lex Fridman
And for me, just from even the user experience, anytime you have like Aparthi said, the aha moments, the magic, seeing the reasoning, the chain of thought, it’s like there’s something really just fundamentally beautiful about that. It’s putting a mirror to ourselves and seeing like, oh, shit. It is solving intelligence as the cliche goal of these companies is, and you get to understand why we humans are special. The intelligence within us is special. And for now also why we’re special in terms of we seem to be conscious and the AI systems for now, and we get to explore that mystery, so it’s just really cool to get to explore these questions that I don’t think I would’ve never imagined would be even possible back when just watching with excitement, deep blue beat Kasparov, I wouldn’t have ever thought this kind of AI would be possible in my lifetime. This is really feels like AI.
And for me, just from even the user experience, anytime you have like Aparthi said, the aha moments, the magic, seeing the reasoning, the chain of thought, it’s like there’s something really just fundamentally beautiful about that. It’s putting a mirror to ourselves and seeing like, oh, shit. It is solving intelligence as the cliche goal of these companies is, and you get to understand why we humans are special. The intelligence within us is special. And for now also why we’re special in terms of we seem to be conscious and the AI systems for now, and we get to explore that mystery, so it’s just really cool to get to explore these questions that I don’t think I would’ve never imagined would be even possible back when just watching with excitement, deep blue beat Kasparov, I wouldn’t have ever thought this kind of AI would be possible in my lifetime. This is really feels like AI.
Nathan Lambert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s incredible.
It’s incredible.
Nathan Lambert
I started with AI learning to fly a silly, a quadrotor, it’s like learning to fly and it learned to fly up. It would hit the ceiling and stop and catch it. It’s like, okay, that is really stupid compared to what’s going on now.
I started with AI learning to fly a silly, a quadrotor, it’s like learning to fly and it learned to fly up. It would hit the ceiling and stop and catch it. It’s like, okay, that is really stupid compared to what’s going on now.
Lex Fridman
And now you could probably with natural language tell it to learn to fly and it’s going to generate the control algorithm required to do that probably.
And now you could probably with natural language tell it to learn to fly and it’s going to generate the control algorithm required to do that probably.
Nathan Lambert
There’s low level blockers. We have to do some weird stuff for that, but you can, you definitely can.
There’s low level blockers. We have to do some weird stuff for that, but you can, you definitely can.
Lex Fridman
Back to our robotics conversation, yeah, when you have to interact in the actual physical world, that’s hard. What gives you hope about the future of human civilization looking into the next 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, how long do you think we’ll make it? You think we’ve got 1000 years?
Back to our robotics conversation, yeah, when you have to interact in the actual physical world, that’s hard. What gives you hope about the future of human civilization looking into the next 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, how long do you think we’ll make it? You think we’ve got 1000 years?
Nathan Lambert
I think humans will definitely be around in a 1000 years, I think. There’s ways that very bad things could happen. There’ll be way fewer humans, but humans are very good at surviving. There’s been a lot of things that that is true. I don’t think necessarily we’re good at long-term credit assignment of risk, but when the risk becomes immediate, we tend to figure things out.
I think humans will definitely be around in a 1000 years, I think. There’s ways that very bad things could happen. There’ll be way fewer humans, but humans are very good at surviving. There’s been a lot of things that that is true. I don’t think necessarily we’re good at long-term credit assignment of risk, but when the risk becomes immediate, we tend to figure things out.
Lex Fridman
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Nathan Lambert
And for that reason, there’s physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I’m not too worried about AI takeover. There are other international things that are worrying, but there’s just fundamental human goodness and trying to amplify that. I think we’re on a tenuous time. And I mean if you look at humanity as a whole, there’s been times where things go backwards, there’s times when things don’t happen at all, and we’re on what should be very positive trajectory right now.
And for that reason, there’s physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I’m not too worried about AI takeover. There are other international things that are worrying, but there’s just fundamental human goodness and trying to amplify that. I think we’re on a tenuous time. And I mean if you look at humanity as a whole, there’s been times where things go backwards, there’s times when things don’t happen at all, and we’re on what should be very positive trajectory right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there seems to be progress, but just like with power, there’s like spikes of human suffering and we want to try to minimize the amount of spikes.
Yeah, there seems to be progress, but just like with power, there’s like spikes of human suffering and we want to try to minimize the amount of spikes.
Dylan Patel
Generally, humanity is going to suffer a lot less, I’m very optimistic about that. I do worry of like techno-fascism type stuff arising. As AI becomes more and more prevalent and powerful and those who control it can do more and more, maybe it doesn’t kill us all, but at some point, every very powerful human is going to want to brain- computer interface so that they can interact with the AGI and all of its advantages in many more way and merge its mind and its capabilities or that person’s capabilities can leverage those much better than anyone else and therefore be, it won’t be one person rule them all, but it will be, the thing I worry about is it’ll be few people, hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands, maybe millions of people rule whoever’s left and the economy around it.
Generally, humanity is going to suffer a lot less, I’m very optimistic about that. I do worry of like techno-fascism type stuff arising. As AI becomes more and more prevalent and powerful and those who control it can do more and more, maybe it doesn’t kill us all, but at some point, every very powerful human is going to want to brain- computer interface so that they can interact with the AGI and all of its advantages in many more way and merge its mind and its capabilities or that person’s capabilities can leverage those much better than anyone else and therefore be, it won’t be one person rule them all, but it will be, the thing I worry about is it’ll be few people, hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands, maybe millions of people rule whoever’s left and the economy around it.
And I think that’s the thing that’s probably more worrisome is human-machine amalgamations. This enables an individual human to have more impact on the world and that impact can be both positive and negative. Generally, humans have positive impacts on the world, at least societally, but it’s possible for individual humans to have such negative impacts. And AGI, at least as I think the labs define it, which is not a runaway sentient thing, but rather just something that can do a lot of tasks really efficiently amplifies the capabilities of someone causing extreme damage. But for the most part, I think it’ll be used for profit-seeking motives, which will increase the abundance and supply of things and therefore reduce suffering, right? That’s the goal.
Lex Fridman
Scrolling on a timeline, just drowning in dopamine-
Scrolling on a timeline, just drowning in dopamine-
Dylan Patel
Scrolling open stasis.
Scrolling open stasis.
Nathan Lambert
Scrolling holds the status quo of the world.
Scrolling holds the status quo of the world.
Dylan Patel
That is a positive outcome, right? If I have food tubes and lung down scrolling and I’m happy, that’s a positive outcome.
That is a positive outcome, right? If I have food tubes and lung down scrolling and I’m happy, that’s a positive outcome.
Lex Fridman
While expanding out into the cosmos. Well, this is a fun time to be alive. And thank you for pushing the forefront of what is possible in humans, and thank you for talking today. This was fun.
While expanding out into the cosmos. Well, this is a fun time to be alive. And thank you for pushing the forefront of what is possible in humans, and thank you for talking today. This was fun.
Dylan Patel
Thanks for having us.
Thanks for having us.
Nathan Lambert
Thanks for having us.
Thanks for having us.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Richard Feynman. “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.” Thank you for listening and I hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Dylan Patel and Nathan Lambert. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Richard Feynman. “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.” Thank you for listening and I hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America | Lex Fridman Podcast #458
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #458 with Marc Andreessen.
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And so the lucky part is just number one, we just have incredible physical security by being our own continent. We have incredible natural resources. There’s this running joke now that whenever it looks like the US is going to run out of some rare earth material, some farmer in North Dakota kicks over a hay bale and finds a $2 trillion deposit. I mean, we’re just blessed with geography and with natural resources. Energy. We can be energy independent anytime we want. This last administration decided they didn’t want to be, they wanted to turn off American energy. This new administration has declared that they have a goal of turning it on in a dramatic way. There’s no question we can be energy independent, we can be a giant net energy exporter. It’s purely a question of choice, and I think the new administration’s going to do that. And then I would say two other things.
One is we are the beneficiaries, and you’re an example of this. We’re a beneficiary. We’re the beneficiary of 50, 100, 200 years of the basically most aggressive driven, smartest people in the world, most capable people moving to the US and raising their kids here. And so we’re by far the most dynamic population, most aggressive, we’re the most aggressive set of characters, certainly in any Western country and have been for a long time, and certainly are today.
And then finally, I would just say, look, we are overwhelmingly the advanced technology leader. We have our issues and we have, I would say particular issue with manufacturing, which we could talk about. But for anything in software, anything in AI, anything in all these … Advanced biotech, all these advanced areas of technology, we’re by far the leader. Again, in part because many of the best scientists and engineers in those fields come to the US. And so we have all of the preconditions for just a monster boom. I could see economic growth going way up, I could see productivity growth going way up, rate of technology adoption going way up. And then we can do a global tour, if you like. But basically, all of our competitors have profound issues, and we could go through them one by one, but the competitive landscape just is … It’s like it’s remarkable how much better positioned we are for growth.
So yeah, I would say all of our problems, I think are basically, in my view, to some extent, attempts to basically sand all that off and make everything basically boring and mediocre. But there is something in the national spirit that basically keeps bouncing back. And basically what we discover over time is we basically just need people to stand up at a certain point and say, “It’s time to build, it’s time to grow, it’s time to do things.” And there’s something in the American spirit that just roars right back to life. And I’ve seen it before. I saw it as a kid here in the early 80s because the 70s were horribly depressing in the US. They were a nightmare on many fronts. And in a lot of ways, the last decade to me has felt a lot like the 70s just being mired in misery and just this self-defeating negative attitude and everybody’s upset about everything. And then by the way, energy crisis and hostage crisis and foreign wars and just demoralization.
The low point in the 70s was Jimmy Carter who just passed away, he went on TV and he gave this speech known as the Malaise Speech, and it was like the weakest possible, trying to rouse people back to a sense of passion, completely failed. And we had the hostages in Iran for I think 440 days. And every night on the nightly news, it was lines around the block, energy crisis, depression, inflation. And then Reagan came in and Reagan was a very controversial character at the time. And he came in and he’s like, “Yep, nope, it’s morning in America and we’re the shining city on the hill, and we’re going to do it.” And he did it, and we did it. And the national spirit came roaring back and roared really hard for a full decade. I think that’s exactly what … I think we’ll see, but I think that’s what could happen here.
But I would also say it’s not just individualism, and this is one of the big things. It’s playing out in a lot of our culture and kind of political fights right now, which is basically this feeling, certainly that I have and I share with a lot of people, which is it’s not enough for America to just be an economic zone, and it’s not enough for us to just be individuals, and it’s not enough to just have line go up, and it’s not enough to just have economic success. There are deeper questions at play, and also there’s more to a country than just that. And quite frankly, a lot of it is intangible. A lot of it involves spirit and passion. And like I said, we have more of it than anybody else, but we have to choose to want it.
The way I look at, it’s like all of our problems are self-inflicted. Decline is a choice. All of our problems are basically demoralization campaigns, basically people telling us, people in positions of authority telling us that, “We shouldn’t stand out, we shouldn’t be adventurous, we shouldn’t be exciting, we shouldn’t be exploratory, we shouldn’t this, that, and the other thing. And we should feel bad about everything that we do.” And I think we’ve lived through a decade where that’s been the prevailing theme. And I think quite honestly, as of November, I think people are done with it.
And then specifically what he did is he talked about the Greeks and the Romans, but specifically what he did is he went back further. He reconstructed the people who came before the Greeks and the Romans and what their life and society was like. And these were the people who were now known as the Indo-Europeans. And you may have heard of these, these are the people who came down from the steppes. And so they came out of what’s now Eastern Europe around sort of the outskirts of what’s now Russia. And then they sort of swept through Europe. They ultimately took over all of Europe, by the way, almost many of the ethnicities in the Americas, the hundreds of years that follow are Indo-European. And so they were basically this warrior, basically class that came down and swept through and essentially populated much of the world. And there’s a whole interesting saga there. And then from there came basically what we know as the Greeks and the Romans were kind of evolutions off of that.
And so what he reconstructs, what life was like, at least in the West for people in their kind of original social state. And the significance of that is the original social state is living in the state of the absolute imperative for survival with absolutely no technology. No modern systems, no nothing. You’ve got the clothes on your back, you’ve got whatever you can build with your bare hands. This predates basically all concepts of technology as we understand them today. And so these are people under maximum levels of physical survival pressure. And so what social patterns did they evolve to be able to do that? And the social pattern basically was as follows, is a three-part social structure, family, tribe and city, and zero concept of individual rights and essentially no concept of individualism. And so you were not an individual. You were a member of your family, and then a set of families would aggregate into a tribe and then a set of tribes would aggregate into a city.
And then the morality was completely … It was actually what Nietzsche talks about. The morality was entirely master morality, not slave morality. And so in their morality, anything that was strong was good, and anything that was weak was bad. And it’s very clear why that is. It is because strong equals good equals survive. Weak equals bad equals die. And that led to what became known later as the master-slave dialectic, which is, is it more important for you to live on your feet as a master even at the risk of dying? Or are you willing to live as a slave on your knees in order to not die? And this is sort of the derivation of that moral framework. Christianity later inverted that moral framework. But the original framework lasted for many, many thousands of years.
No concept of individualism. The head of the family had total life and death control over the family, the head of the tribe, same thing, head of the city, same thing. And then you were morally obligated to kill members of the other cities on contact. You were morally required to. If you didn’t do it, you were a bad person.
And then the form of the society was basically maximum fascism combined with maximum communism. And so it was maximum fascism in the form of this absolute top-down control where the head of the family tribe or city could kill other members of the community at any time with no repercussions at all. So maximum hierarchy, but combined with maximum communism, which is no market economy and so everything gets shared. And sort of the point of being in one of these collectives is that it’s a collective and people are sharing, and of course that limited how big they could get because the problem with communism is it doesn’t scale. It works at the level of a family. It’s much harder to make it work at the level of a country. Impossible. Maximum fascism, maximum communism.
And then it was all intricately tied into their religion. And their religion was in two parts. It was veneration of ancestors and it was veneration of nature. And the veneration of ancestors is extremely important because it was basically the ancestors were the people who got you to where you were. The ancestors were the people who had everything to teach you. And then it was veneration of nature because of course, nature is the thing that’s trying to kill you. And then you had your ancestor, every family, tribe or city had their ancestor gods and then they had their nature gods.
So fast-forward to today, we live in a world that is radically different, and the book takes you through what happened from that through the Greeks and Romans through to Christianity. But it’s very helpful to kind of think in these terms because the conventional view of the progress through time is that we are … The cliche is the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice or so-called wig history, which is that the arc of progress is positive. And so what you hear all the time, what you’re taught in school and everything is every year that goes by, we get better and better and more and more moral and more and more pure and a better version of ourselves. Our Indo-European ancestors would say, ” Oh no, you people have fallen to shit. You people took all of the principles of basically your civilization and you have diluted them down to the point where they barely even matter and you’re having children out of a wedlock and you regularly encounter people of other cities and you don’t try to kill them.” And how crazy is that?
And they would basically consider us to be living like an incredibly diluted version of this sort of highly religious, highly cult-like, highly organized, highly fascist, communist society. I can’t resist noting that as a consequence of basically going through all the transitions we’ve been through going all the way through Christianity coming out the other end of Christianity, Nietzsche declares God is dead. We’re in a secular society that still has tinges of Christianity, but largely prides itself on no longer being religious in that way. We being the sort of most fully evolved, modern secular experts, scientists and so forth have basically re-evolved or fallen back on the exact same religious structure that the Indo-Europeans had, specifically ancestor worship, which is identity politics and nature worship, which is environmentalism. And so we have actually worked our way all the way back to their cult religions without realizing it. And it just goes to show that in some ways we have fallen far from the family tree, but in some cases we’re exactly the same.
And the way I think about that is the process of evolutionary learning, which is what tradition ought to be, is the distilled wisdom of all. And this is what Indo-Europeans thought about. It should be the distilled wisdom of everybody who came before you. All those important and powerful lessons learned. And that’s why I think it’s fascinating to go back and study how these people lived is because part of the history and part of the learning that got us to where we’re today.
Having said that, there are many cultures around the world that are mired in tradition to the point of not being able to progress. And in fact, you might even say globally, that’s the default human condition, which is a lot of people are in societies in which there’s absolute seniority by age, kids are completely … In the US, for some reason we decided kids are in charge of everything and they’re the trendsetters and they’re allowed to set all the agendas and set all the politics and set all the culture and maybe that’s a little bit crazy. But in a lot of other cultures, kids have no voice at all, no role at all. The old people who are in charge of everything, they’re gerontocracies, and it’s all a bunch of 80 year olds running everything, which by the way, we have a little bit of that too.
And so what I would say is there’s a real downside. Full traditionalism is communitarianism, it’s ethnic particularism, it’s ethnic chauvinism, it’s this incredible level of resistance to change. It just doesn’t get you anywhere. It may be good and fine at the level of an individual tribe, but as a society living in the modern world, you can’t evolve, you can’t advance, you can’t participate in all the good things that have happened. And so I think probably this is one of those things where extremists on either side is probably a bad idea, but this needs to be approached in a sophisticated and nuanced way.
And then just this general idea of progress is bad, and technology is bad, and capitalism is bad, and building businesses is bad and success is bad. Tall poppy syndrome, basically, anybody who sticks their head up deserves to get it chopped off. Anybody who’s wrong about anything deserves to get condemned forever. Just this very kind of grinding repression. And then coupled with specific government actions such as censorship regimes and debanking and Draconian, deliberately kneecapping critical American industries, and then congratulating yourselves on the back for doing it or having these horrible social policies, like let’s let all the criminals out of jail and see what happens. And so we’ve just been through this period, I call it a demoralization campaign. We’ve just been through this period, whether it started that way or not, it ended up basically being this comprehensive message that says, “You’re terrible and if you try to do anything, you’re terrible and fuck you.” And the Biden administration reached the full pinnacle of that in our time. They got really bad on many fronts at the same time. And so just relieving that and getting back to a reasonably optimistic, constructive, pro-growth frame of mind, there’s so much pent-up energy and potentially in the American system, that alone is going to, I think cause growth and spirit to take off. And then there’s a lot of things proactively that could be done.
But I would say that same conversation, those same kinds of things are happening throughout the industry. And so the tech industry itself, whether people were pro-Trump or anti-Trump, there’s just a giant vibe shift, mood shift that’s kicked in already. And then I was with a group of Hollywood people about two weeks ago, and they were still people who at least vocally were still very anti-Trump, but I said, “Has anything changed since November 6th?” And they immediately said, “Oh, it’s completely different. It feels like the ice has thawed. Woke is over.” They said that all kinds of projects are going to be able to get made now they couldn’t before, that Hollywood’s going to start making comedies again. It is just like an incredible immediate environmental change. And as I talk to people, certainly throughout the economy, people who run businesses, I hear that all the time, which is just this last 10 years of misery is just over.
I mean, the one that I’m watching that’s really funny. I mean, Facebook’s getting a lot, Meta’s getting a lot of attention, but the other funny one is BlackRock, which I don’t know him, but I’ve watched for a long time. And so Larry Fink, who’s the CEO of BlackRock, was first in as a major investment CEO on every dumb social trend and rule set every … I’m going for it. Every retarded thing you can imagine, every ESG and every possible … Saddling companies with every aspect of just these crazed ideological positions. And he was coming in, he literally had aggregated together trillions of dollars of shareholdings that were his customer’s rights, and he seized their voting control of their shares and was using it to force all these companies to do all of this crazy ideological stuff. And he was like the Typhoid Mary of all this stuff in corporate America. And he in the last year has been backpedaling from that stuff as fast as he possibly can.
And just an example, last week, he pulled out of the whatever the Corporate Net-Zero Alliance, he pulled out of the crazy energy stuff. And so he’s backing away as fast as he can. Remember, the Richard Pryor backwards walk? Richard Pryor had this way where he could back out of a room while looking like he was walking forward.
And so even there doing that and just the whole thing. I mean, if you saw the court recently ruled that NASDAQ had these crazy board of directors composition rules. One of the funniest moments of my life is when my friend Peter Thiel and I were on the Meta board and these NASDAQ rules came down, mandated diversity on corporate boards. And so we sat around the table and had to figure out which of us counted as diverse. And the very professional attorneys at Meta explained with 100% complete straight face that Peter Thiel counts as diverse by virtue of being LGBT. And this is a guy who literally wrote a book called The Diversity Myth. He literally looked like he’d swallowed a live goldfish, and this was imposed. I mean, this was so incredibly offensive to him that it was just absolutely appalling and I felt terrible for him. But the look in his face was very funny.
And it was imposed by NASDAQ, your stock exchange imposing this stuff on you, and then the court, whatever, the Court of Appeals just nuked that. So these things basically are being ripped down one by one. And what’s on the other side of it is basically finally being able to get back to everything that everybody always wanted to do, which is run their companies, have great products, have happy customers, succeed, achieve, outperform, and work with the best and the brightest and not be made to feel bad about it. And I think that’s happening in many areas of American society.
We can maybe talk about the fire later, but I can tell you there is a very big question of what’s happening in Los Angeles right now. I don’t want to get into the fire, but it’s catastrophic. And there was already a rightward shift in the big cities in California, and I think a lot of people in LA are really thinking about things right now as they’re trying to literally save their houses and save their families. But even in San Francisco, there was a big shift to the right in the voting in ’24. So we’ll see where that goes, but you observe that by just looking at the numbers over time.
The part that I’m more focused on is, and I don’t know how to exactly describe this, but it’s like the top 1,000 or the top 10,000 people. I don’t have a list, but it’s all the top founders, top CEOs, top executives, top engineers, top VCs, and then into the ranks, the people who kind of built and run the companies. And I don’t have numbers, but I have a much more tactile feel for what’s happening. So the big thing I have now come to believe is that the idea that people have beliefs is mostly wrong. I think that most people just go along, and I think even most high status people just go along. And I think maybe the most high status people are the most prone to just go along because they’re the most focused on status. And the way I would describe that is one of the great forbidden philosophers of our time is the Unabomber, Ted Kaczynski. And amidst his madness, he had this extremely interesting articulation. He was an insane lunatic murderer, but he was also a Harvard super genius. Not that those are in conflict.
Even before I had the views that I have today, there was always just this weird thing where it’s like, why does every dinner party have the exact same conversation? Why does everybody agree on every single issue? Why is that agreement precisely what was in the New York Times today? Why are these positions not the same as they were five years ago? But why does everybody snap into agreement every step of the way? And that was true when I came to Silicon Valley, and it’s just as true today 30 years later. And so I think most people are just literally, I think they’re taking their cues from, it’s some combination of the press, the universities, the big foundations. So it’s basically, it’s like The New York Times, Harvard, the Ford Foundation, and I don’t know, a few CEOs and a few public figures and maybe the President if your party is in power. And whatever that is, everybody who’s sort of good and proper and elite and good standing and in charge of things, and a sort of correct member of, let’s call it coastal American society, everybody just believes those things.
And then the two interesting things about that is, number one, there’s no divergence among the organs of power. So Harvard and Yale believed the exact same thing. The New York Times and The Washington Post believe the exact same thing. The Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation believe the exact same thing. Google and whatever, Microsoft believe the exact same thing. But those things change over time, but there’s never conflict in the moment. And so The New York Times and The Washington Post agreed on exactly everything in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, despite the fact that the specifics changed radically. The lockstep was what mattered. And so I think basically we in the Valley we’re on the tail end of that, in the same way Hollywood’s on the tail end of that, in the same way New York’s on the tail end of that, the same way the media’s on the tail end of that. It’s like some sort of collective hive mind thing.
And I just go through that to say, I don’t think most people in my orbit, or let’s say the top 10,000 people in the Valley or the top 10,000 people in LA, I don’t think they’re sitting there thinking basically, I have rock … I mean, they probably think they have rocks solid beliefs, but they don’t actually have some inner core of rock solid beliefs. And then they kind of watch reality change around them and try to figure out how to keep their beliefs correct. I don’t think that’s what happens. I think what happens is they conform to the belief system around them, and I think most of the time they’re not even aware that they’re basically part of a herd.
People don’t laugh at made-up bullshit stories. They laugh because you’re revealing something that they either have not been allowed to think about or have not been allowed to talk about or is off limits. And all of a sudden it’s like the ice breaks and it’s like, oh yeah, that’s the thing. And it’s funny and I laugh, and then of course, this is why of course live comedy is so powerful is because you’re all doing that at the same time, so you start to have the safety of numbers. It’s no surprise to me, for example, Joe has been as successful as he has because they have this hack that the rest of us who are not professional comedians don’t have, but you have your in-person version of it, and then you’ve got the question of whether you can join the networks together.
And then you’ve probably been to this, is then at some point there’s like the Alt dinner party, the [inaudible 00:36:23] dinner party, and you get six or eight people together and you join the networks. And those are the happiest, at least in the last decade, those are the happiest moments of everybody’s lives. Everybody’s just ecstatic because they’re like, I don’t have to worry about getting yelled at and shamed for every third sentence that comes out of my mouth, and we can actually talk about real things. So that’s the live version of it. And then of course, the other side of it’s the group chat phenomenon. And then basically the same thing played out until Elon bought X and until Substack took off, which were really the two big breakthroughs in free speech online, the same dynamic played out online, which is you had absolute conformity on the social networks, literally enforced by the social networks themselves through censorship, and then also through cancellation campaigns and mobbing and shaming.
But then group chats grew up to be the equivalent of Samizdat. Anybody who grew up in the Soviet Union under communism, note, they had the hard version of this. It’s like, how do you know who you could talk to? And then how do you distribute information? And again, that was the hard authoritarian version of this. And then we’ve been living through this weird mutant soft authoritarian version, but with some of the same patterns.
And so it’s that same thing. And then group chats is a technological phenomenon. It was amazing to see. Number one, it was obviously the rise of smartphones, then it was the rise of the new messaging services, then it was the rise specifically of I would say combination of WhatsApp and Signal. And the reason for that is those were the two big systems that did the full encryption, so you actually felt safe. And then the real breakthrough I think was disappearing messages, which hit Signal probably four or five years ago and hit WhatsApp three or four years ago. And then the combination of encryption and disappearing messages I think really unleashed it. Well, then there’s the fight over the length of disappearing messages. And so it’s like I often get behind on my thing, so I set to seven day disappearing messages and my friends who are like, no, that’s way too much risk. It’s got to be a day. And then every once in a while somebody will set to five minutes before they send something particularly inflammatory.
To me, the interesting question here is, what is the landscape of private thoughts and ideas and conversations that are happening under the surface of Americans? Especially, my question is how much dormant energy is there for this roaring twenties? What people are like, no more bullshit, let’s get done.
And there’s the two classic forms of it. For example, there’s the, I believe communism is rotten, but I can’t say it version of it. But then there’s also the famous parable of the real life example, but the thing that Vaclav Havel talks about in the other good book on this topic, which is The Power of the Powerless, who is an anti-communist resistance fighter who ultimately became the president of Czechoslovakia after the fall of the wall. But he wrote this book and he describes the other side of this, which is workers of the world unite. And so he describes what he calls the Parable of the Greengrocer, which is you’re a greengrocer in Prague in 1985, and for the last 50 years, it’s been absolutely mandatory to have a sign in the window of your store that says Workers of the World Unite.
And it’s 1985, it is crystal clear that the workers of the world are not going to unite. Of all the things that could happen in the world, that is not going to happen. The Commies have been at that for 70 years, it is not happening. But that slogan had better be in your window every morning because if it’s not in your window every morning, you are not a good communist. The secret police are going to come by and they’re going to get you. And so the first thing you do when you get to the store is you put that slogan in the window and you make sure that it stays in the window all day long. But he says, the thing is, the greengrocer knows the slogan is fake. He knows it’s a lie. Every single person walking past the slogan knows that it’s a lie. Every single person walking past the store knows that the greengrocer is only putting it up there because he has to lie in public. And the greengrocer has to go through the humiliation of knowing that everybody knows that he’s caving into the system and lying in public.
And so it turns into the moralization campaign. In fact, it’s not ideological enforcement anymore because everybody knows it’s fake. The authorities know it’s fake, everybody knows it’s fake. It’s not that they’re enforcing the actual ideology of the workers of the world uniting. It’s that they’re enforcing compliance and compliance with the regime. And you fuck you, you will comply. And so anyway, that’s the other side of that. And of course, we have lived in the last decade through a lot of both of those. I think anybody listening to this could name a series of slogans that we’ve all been forced to chant for the last decade that everybody knows at this point are just simply not true. I’ll let the audience speculate on their own group chats.
And if anybody would just stand up and say it, I would be willing to go along with it, but I’m not going to be the first one to put my head on the chopping block. But because of the suppression censorship, you have no way of knowing how many of the people agree with you. And if the people agree with you are 10% of the population and you become part of a movement, you’re going to get killed. If 90% of the people agree with you, you’re going to win the revolution. And so the question of what the percentage actually is is a really critical question. And then basically in any sort of authoritarian system, you can’t run a survey to get an accurate result. And so you actually can’t know until you put it to the test. And then what he describes in the book is it’s always put to the test in the same way.
This is exactly what’s happened for the last two years, like 100% of exactly what’s happened. It’s like straight out of this book. Which is somebody, Elon, sticks his hand up and says, the workers of the world are not going to unite. Or the emperor is actually wearing no clothes, that famous parable. So one person stands up and does it, and literally that person is standing there by themselves, and everybody else in the audience is like, Ooh, I wonder what’s going to happen to that guy? But again, nobody knows. Elon doesn’t know, the first guy doesn’t know, other people don’t know which way is this going to go. And it may be that that’s a minority position and that’s the way to get yourself killed. Or it may be that that’s the majority position and you are now the leader of a revolution.
And then basically, of course, what happens is, okay, the first guy does that doesn’t get killed, the second guy does… Well, a lot of the time that guy does get killed, but when the guy doesn’t get killed, then a second guy pops his head up, says the same thing. All right, now you’ve got two. Two leads to four, four leads to eight, eight leads to 16. And then as we saw with the fall of the Berlin Wall, this is what happened in Russia and Eastern Europe in ’89, when it goes, it can go, and then it rips. And then if it turns out that you had a large percentage of the population that actually believed the different thing, it turns out all of a sudden everybody has this giant epiphany that says, oh, I’m actually part of the majority. And at that point, you were on the freight train to revolution, right? It is rolling. Now, the other part of this is the distinction between the role of the elites and the masses.
And here the best book is called the True Believer, which is the Eric Hoffer book. And so the nuance you have to put on this is the elites play a giant role in this because the elites do idea formation and communication, but the elites, by definition are a small minority. And so there’s also this giant role played by the masses, and the masses are not necessarily thinking these things through in the same intellectualized formal way that the elites are, but they are for sure experiencing these things in their daily lives, and they for sure have at least very strong emotional views on them.
And so when you really get the revolution, it’s when you get the elites lined up with, or either the current elites change or the new set of elites, a new set of counter elites, basically come along and say, “No, there’s actually a different and better way to live.” And then the people basically decide to follow the counter elite. So that’s the other dimension to it. And of course, that part is also happening right now. And again, case study one of that would be Elon, and who turns out in truly massive following.
Whatever you think of them, what they say in private is 100% identical to what they say in public. They’re completely transparent, they’re completely honest in that way. Again, it’s not like they’re perfect people, but they’re honest in that way. And it makes them potentially both as they have been, very powerful leaders of these movements because they’re both willing to stand up and say the thing that if it’s true, it turns out to be the thing in many cases that many or most or almost everyone else actually believes, but nobody was actually willing to say out loud. And so they can actually catalyze these shifts. I think this framework is exactly why Trump took over the Republican Party. I think Trump stood up there on stage with all these other kind of conventional Republicans, and he started saying things out loud that it turned out the base really was they were either already believing or they were prone to believe, and he was the only one who was saying them.
And so again, elite masses, he was the elite, the voters of the masses, and the voters decided, no. No more bushes, we’re going this other direction. That’s the mechanism of social change. What we just described is the actual mechanism of social change. It is fascinating to me that we have been living through exactly this. We’ve been living through everything exactly what Timur Kuran describes, everything that Vaclav Havel described. Black Squares and Instagram, like the whole thing, right? All of it. And we’ve been living through the true believer elites masses thing, with a set of basically incredibly corrupt elites wondering why they don’t have the masses anymore, and a set of new elites that are running away with things.
And so we’re living through this incredible applied case study of these ideas. And if there’s a moral of the story, it is I think fairly obvious, which is it’s a really bad idea for a society to wedge itself into a position in which most people don’t believe the fundamental precepts of what they’re told they have to do to be good people like that. That is just not a good state to be in.
And by the way, that may work for a while. I mean, again, the hard form, Soviet Union, pre photocopiers, there were mimeograph machines that were used to make Samizdat and underground newspapers, which is the mechanism of written communication of radical ideas, radical ideas. Ownership of a mimeograph machine was punishable by death. So that’s the hard version. The soft version is somebody clicks a button in Washington and you were erased from the internet, which good news, you’re still alive. Bad news is, shame about not being able to get a job. Too bad your family now hates you and won’t talk to you, whatever the version of cancellation it’s been. And so does that work? Maybe it works for a while. It worked for the Soviet Union for a while in its way, especially when it was coupled with official state power. But when it unwinds, it can unwind with incredible speed and ferocity. Because to your point, there’s all this bottled up energy.
Now, your question was what are the percentages? What’s the breakdown? And so my rough guess, just based on what I’ve seen in my world, is it’s something like 20, 60, 20. It’s like you’ve got 20% true believers in whatever is the current thing. You got 20% of people who are just true believers of whatever’s in the New York Times, Harvard professors and the Ford Foundation, they’re just… Maybe it’s 10, maybe it’s five, but let’s say generously it’s 20. So 20% kind of full-on revolutionaries. And then you’ve got, let’s call it 20% on the other side that are like, no, I’m not on board with this. This is crazy. I’m not signing up for this. But their view of themselves is they’re in a small minority, and in fact, they start out in a small minority, because what happens is the 60% go with the first 20%, not the second 20%. So you’ve got this large middle of people.
And it’s not that the people in the middle are not smart or anything like that, that they just have normal lives and they’re just trying to get by and they’re just trying to go to work each day and do a good job and be a good person and raise their kids and have a little bit of time to watch the game, and they’re just not engaged in the cut and thrust of political activism or any of this stuff. It’s just not their thing. But that’s where the over socialization comes in. It’s just like, okay, by default, the 60% will go along with the 20% of the radical revolutionaries at least for a while, and then the counter elite is in this other 20%. And over time, they build up a theory and network and ability to resist in a new set of representatives, in a new set of ideas. And then at some point there’s a contest and then, and then the question is, what happens in the middle? What happens in the 60%?
And it is kind of my point. It’s not even really does the 60% change their beliefs as much as it’s like, okay, what is the thing that that 60% now decides to basically fall into step with? And in the valley, that 60% for the last decade decided to be woke and extremely, I would say, on edge on a lot of things. And that 60% is pivoting in real time. They’re just done. They’ve just had it.
And by the way, Trump’s not the only part of this, but he’s just a convenient shorthand for a lot of this. But whatever it is, you’ll have people who will say, well, I never supported the EI, or I never supported ESG, or I never thought we should have canceled that person, where of course, they were full on a part of the mob at that moment. So anyway, so you’ll have preference falsification happening in the other direction. His prediction, I think, basically is you’ll end up with the same quote, “problem” on the other side. Now, will that happen here? I don’t know. How far is American society willing to go on any of these things? I don’t know. But there is some question there.
And then the other part of it is, okay, now you have this elite that is used to being in power for the last decade. And by the way, many of those people are still in power and they’re in very important positions. And the New York Times is still the New York Times, and Harvard is still Harvard, and those people haven’t changed, like at all. Bureaucrats in the government and senior democratic politicians and so forth. And they’re sitting there right now feeling like reality has just smacked them hard in the face because they lost the election so badly. But they’re now going into, and specifically the Democratic Party, is going into a Civil War. And that form of the Civil War is completely predictable and it’s exactly what’s happening, which is half of them are saying, we need to go back to the center. We need to de-radicalize because we’ve lost the people. We’ve lost the people in the middle, and so we need to go back to the middle in order to be able to get 50% plus one in an election.
And then the other half of them are saying, no, we weren’t true to our principles. We were too weak. We were too soft. We must become more revolutionary. We must double down and we must celebrate murders in the street of health insurance executives. And that right now is a real fight.
Nevertheless, he just doesn’t want the headache. And that speaks to the thing that you’ve kind of mentioned, that you just don’t want the headache. You just want to just have a pleasant morning with some coffee and talk to your fellow professors. And I think a lot of people are feeling that in universities and in other contexts, in tech companies. And I wonder if that shifts, how quickly that shifts? And there, the percentages you mentioned, 20, 60, 20 matters, and the contents of the private groups matters, and the dynamics of how that shifts matters. Because it’s very possible, nothing really changes in universities and in major tech companies. Where just, there’s a kind of excitement right now for potential revolution and these new ideas, these new vibes, to reverberate through these companies and universities, but it’s possible the wall will hold.
I’ll give you the most direct reason we can’t get access to that money, we can’t get access to federal student funding. Do you know how universities are accredited for the purpose of getting access to federal student funding? Federal student loans? They’re accredited by the government, but not directly, indirectly. They’re not accredited by the Department of Education. Instead, what happens is the Department of Education accredits accreditation bureaus that are nonprofits that do the accreditation. Guess what the composition of the accreditation bureaus is? The existing universities. They are in complete control. The incumbents are in complete control as to who gets access to federal student loan money. Guess how enthusiastic they are about accrediting a new university? Right.
And so we have a government funded and supported cartel that has gone… It’s just obvious now. It’s just gone sideways in basically any possible way it could go sideways, including, I mean, literally, as you know, students getting beaten up on campus for being the wrong religion. They’re just wrong in every possible way at this point. And it’s all on the federal taxpayer back. And there is no way, I mean, my opinion, there is no way to fix these things without replacing them. And there’s no way to replace them without letting them fail. And by the way, it’s like everything else in life. I mean, in a sense, this is the most obvious conclusion of all time, which is what happens in the business world when a company does a bad job is they go bankrupt and another company takes its place, and that’s how you get progress. And of course, below that is what happens is this is the process of evolution. Why does anything ever get better? Things are tested and tried, and then the things that are good survive. And so these places, they’ve been allowed to cut themselves off, both from evolution of the institutional level and evolution of the individual level as shown by the just widespread abuse of tenure. And so we’ve just stalled out. We built an ossified system, an ossified, centralized, corrupt system, where we’re surprised by the results. They are not fixable in their current form.
So the form of this in politics is we must do something. This is something, therefore we must do this. But there’s no causal logic chain in there at all to expect that that’s actually going to succeed because there’s no reason to believe that it is.
It’s insane, like obviously you can’t do it. Nobody in business thinks you can do that, it’s impossible. Now look, having said all that, I should also express this because I have a lot of friends who work at these places and are involved in various attempts to fix these. I hope that I’m wrong, I would love to be wrong, I would love for the underpants gnome step two to be something clear and straightforward that they can figure out how to do. I would love to fix it, I’d love to see them come back to their spoken principles, I think that’d be great, I’d love to see the professors with tenure get bravery, it would be fantastic. My partner and I have done a lot of public speaking on this topic, it’s been intended to not just be harsh, but also be like, okay, these challenges have to be confronted directly.
By the way, let me also say something positive, especially post-October seventh, there are a bunch of very smart people who are major donors and board members of these institutions like Mark Rowan who are really coming in trying to, I think legitimately trying to fix these places. I have a friend on the executive committee at one of the top technical universities. He’s working overtime to try to do this.
Man, I hope they can figure it out. But the counter question would just be like, do you see it actually happening at a single one of these places?
I think the taxpayers do not understand this level of crisis, and I think if the taxpayers come to understand it, I think the funding evaporates. And so I think the fuse is going through no fault of any of ours, but the fuse is going and there’s some window of time here to fix this and address it and justify the money because just normal taxpayers sitting in normal towns in normal jobs are not going to tolerate this for that much longer.
So I think the way to think about this, so first of all, yeah. So I was involved in this at Facebook, by the way, I’ve been involved in this at Facebook every step of the way. I joined the board there in 2007 so I’ve seen everything in the last almost 20 years every step of the way. But also I’ve been involved in most of the other companies over time so I was angel investor on Twitter. I knew them really well. We were the founding investor in Substack. Part of the Elon takeover of Twitter with X. I was an angel at LinkedIn. So I’ve been in, we were the funder of Pinterest. We were one of the main investors there, Reddit as well. And I was having these conversations with all these guys all the way through. So as much talk specifically about Facebook, but I can just tell you the general pattern. And for quite a while it was kind of all the same across these companies.
So basically the way to think about this, the true kind of nuanced view of this is that there is practically speaking, no internet service that can have zero censorship. And by the way, that also mirrors, there is no country that actually has unlimited free speech either. The U.S. First Amendment actually has 12 or 13 formal carve outs from the Supreme Court over time. So incitement to violence and terrorist recruitment and child abuse and child pornography and so forth, they’re not covered by the First Amendment. And just practically speaking, if you and I are going to start an internet company and have a service, we can’t have that stuff either because illegal or it will just clearly destroy the whole thing.
So you’re always going to have a censorship engine. I mean hopefully it’s not actually in the browser, but you’re going to have it for sure at the level of an internet service. But then what happens is now you have a machine. Now you have a system where you can put in rules saying, we allow this. We don’t allow that. You have enforcement, you have consequences. And once that system is in place, it becomes the ring of power, which is like, okay, now anybody in that company or anybody associated with that company or anybody who wants to pressure that company will just start to say, “Okay, you should use that machine for more than just terrorist recruitment and child pornography. You should use it for X, Y, Z.”
And basically that transition happened, call it 2012, 2013 is when there was this very, very kind of rapid pivot. I think the kickoff to it for some reason it was the beginning of the second Obama term. I think it also coincided with the sort of arrival of the first kind of super woke kids into these schools. It’s the kids that were in school between for the Iraq war and then the global financial crisis and they came out super radicalized. They came into these companies, they immediately started mounting these social crusades to ban and censor lots of things.
And then quite frankly, the Democratic Party figured this out. And they figured out that these companies were very subject to being controlled and the executive teams and boards of directors were almost all Democrats. And there’s tremendous circulation. A lot of Obama people from the first term actually came and worked in these companies. And a lot of FBI people and other law enforcement intelligence people came in and worked and they were all Democrats for that set. And so the ring of power was lying on the table. It had been built and they picked it up and put it on, and then they just ran.
And the original discussions were basically always on two topics. It was hate speech and misinformation. Hate speech was the original one. And the hate speech conversation started exactly like you’d expect, which is we can’t have the N word. And which the answer is fair enough, let’s not have the N word. Now, we’ve set a precedent, and Jordan Peterson has talked a lot about this. The definition of hate speech ended up being things that make people uncomfortable. So we can’t have things that make people uncomfortable. I, course people like me that are disagreeable raise their hands and say, “Well, that idea right there makes me uncomfortable.” But of course that doesn’t count as hate speech. So the ring of power is on one hand and not on the other hand.
And then basically that began this slide where it ended up being that completely anodyne is the point Mark has been making recently completely anodyne comments that are completely legitimate on television or on the Senate floor all of a sudden are hate speech can’t be said online so that the ring of power was wielded in grossly irresponsible ways. We could talk about all the stuff that happened there.
And then the other one was misinformation. And there was a little bit of that early on, but of course that really kicked in with Trump. So hate speech stuff pre-dated Trump by three or four years. The misinformation stuff was, it was a little bit later and it was a consequence of the Russiagate hoax. And then that was a ring of power that was even more powerful because hate speech, it’s like, okay, at some point if something offensive or not, at least you can have a question as to whether that’s the case. But the problem with misinformation is like, is it the truth or not? What do we know for 800 years or whatever western civilization it’s that there’s only a few entities that can determine the truth on every topic. There’s God, there’s the king. We don’t have those anymore and the rest of us are all imperfect and flawed.
And so the idea that any group of experts is going to sit around the table and decide on the truth is deeply anti-Western and deeply authoritarian. And somehow the misinformation kind of crusade went from the Russiagate hoax into just full-blown, we’re going to use that weapon for whatever we want.
And then of course, then the culminating moment on that, that really was the straw that broke the camel’s back was we’re going to censor all theories that the COVID virus might’ve been manufactured in a lab as misinformation. And inside these companies, that was the point where people for the first time, this is what, three years ago for the first time, they were like, that was when it sunk in where it’s just like, okay, this has spun completely out of control. But anyway, that’s how we got to where we are.
And then basically that spell lasted, that complex existed and got expanded basically from, call it 2013 to 2023. I think basically two things broke it. One is Substack, and I’m super proud of those guys because they started from scratch and declared right up front that they were going to be a free speech platform. And they came under intense pressure, including from the press, and they tried to beat them to the ground and kill them. And intense pressure, by the way, from let’s say certain of the platform companies basically threatening them. And they stood up to it. And sitting here today, they have the widest spectrum of speech and conversation anywhere on planet Earth. And they’ve done a great job. And it is worked by the way. It’s great. And then obviously Elon with X was the hammer blow. And then the third one now is what Mark is doing at Facebook.
And for people who don’t recall what he did, and this was in the full-blown, you absolutely must lock down for two years. You absolutely must keep all the schools closed. You absolutely must have everybody work from home. You absolutely must wear a mask like the whole thing. And then one of those was you absolutely must believe that COVID was completely natural. You must believe that. And not believing that means you’re a fascist Nazi Trump supporter, MAGA, evil QAnon person. And uniformly, that was enforced by the social media companies. And like I said, that was the peak. And Jon Stewart went on the Colbert Show, and I don’t know if they planned it or not because Colbert looked shocked. I don’t know how much, it was a bit, but he went on there and he just had one of these, the Emperor’s wearing no clothes things where he said, “It’s just not plausible that you had the COVID super virus appear 300 yards down the street from the Wuhan Institute of lethal coronaviruses.” It’s just not plausible that certainly that you could just rule that out.
And then there was another key moment, actually, the more serious version was I think the author, Nicholson Baker wrote a big piece for New York Magazine. And Nicholson Baker is one of our great novelist, writers of our time. And he wrote the piece and he did the complete undressing of it. And that was the first, I think that was the first legit, there had been alt renegade, there had been people running around saying this, but getting censored all over the place. That was the first one that was in the mainstream press and he talked to all the heretics and he just laid the whole thing out. And that was a moment.
And I remember let’s say a board meeting at one of these companies after that where basically everybody looked around the table and was like, “All right, I guess we’re not, we don’t need to censor that anymore.” And then of course, what immediately follows from that is, “Well, wait a minute, why were we censoring that in the first place?” And then the downstream, not that day, but the downstream conversations were like, “Okay, if we made such a giant, in retrospect, if we all made such a giant collective mistake censoring that, then what does that say about the rest of our regime?” And I think that was the thread in the sweater that started to unravel it.
I would say he has always taken upon himself a level of obligation, responsibility to running a company the size of Meta and to running services that are that large. And I think his conception of what he’s doing, which I think is correct, is he’s running services that are bigger than any country. Over 3 billion people use those services. And then the company has many tens of thousands of employees and many investors, and it’s a public company and he thinks very deeply and seriously about his responsibilities. And so he has not felt like he has had, let’s just say, the complete flexibility that Elon has had. And people could argue that one way or the other, but he talked about a lot. He’s evolved a lot. A lot of it was he learned a lot.
And by the way, I’m going to put myself right back up there. I’m not claiming any huge foresight or heroism on any of this. I’ve also learned a lot, my views on things are very different than they were 10 years ago on lots of topics. And so I’ve been on a learning journey. He’s been on a learning journey. He’s a really, really good learner. He assimilates information as good as, or better than anybody else I know.
The other thing I guess I would just say is he talked on that show about something very important, which is when you’re in a role where you’re running a company like that, there are a set of decisions that you get to make and you deserve to be criticized for those decisions and so forth and it’s valid, but you are under tremendous external pressure as well. And by the way, you’re under tremendous internal pressure. You’ve got your employees coming at you, you’ve got your executives in some cases coming at you. You’ve got your board in some cases coming at you. You’ve got your shareholders coming at you, so you’ve got your internal pressures, but you also have the press coming at you. You’ve got academia coming at you, you’ve got the entire nonprofit complex activist complex coming at you.
And then really critically, he talked about in Rogan and these companies all went through this, in this last especially five years, you had the government coming at you. And that’s the really stinky end of the pool where the government was, in my view, illegally exerting just in flagrant violation of the First Amendment and federal laws on speech and coercion and conspiracy, forcing these companies to engage in activities. Again, in some cases they may have wanted to do, but in other cases they clearly didn’t want to do and felt like they had to do.
And the level of pressure, like I say, I’ve known every CEO Twitter, they’ve all had the exact same experience, which when they were in the job, it was just daily beatings. It’s just getting punched in the face every single day constantly. And Mark is very good at getting physically punched in the face and then-
And by the way, I should also say the cynicism of course is immediately out and it’s a legitimate thing for people to say, but it’s like, “Oh, you’re only doing this because of Trump or whatever.” And it’s just like, no, he has been thinking about and working on these things and trying to figure them out for a very long time. And so I think what you saw are legitimate, deeply held beliefs, not some sort of just-in-the-moment thing that could change at any time.
Or my partner Ben, he was CEO of our last company before we started the venture firm. He said the problem he had with his family life was even when he was home at night, he wasn’t home because he was in his head trying to solve all the business problems. And so he was supposed to be having dinner with his kids and he was physically there, but he wasn’t mentally there so you get that a lot. But the key thing is you can’t talk to people. You can. I mean, you can talk to your spouse and your kids, but they don’t understand that they’re not working in your company. They don’t understand, have the context to really help you. If you talk to your executives, they all have agendas and they can’t resist. It’s just human nature. And so you can’t necessarily rely on what they say. It’s very hard in most companies to talk to your board because they can fire you.
Now, Mark has the situation because he has control, it actually turns out he can talk to his board. And Mark talks to us about many things that most CEOs won’t talk to their boards about literally because we can’t fire him. But a general, including all the CEOs of Twitter, none of them had control and so they could all get fired. You can’t talk to the board members. They’re going to fire, you can’t talk to the shareholders because they’ll just dump your stock. Okay.
So every once in a while, what you find is basically the best case scenario they have is they can talk to other CEOs, and there’s these little organizations where they kind of pair up and do that and so they maybe get a little bit out of that. But even that’s fraught with peril because can you really talk about confidential information with another CEO, insider trading risk. And so it’s just a very lonely isolating thing to start with.
And then on top of that, you apply pressure, and that’s where it gets painful. And then maybe I’ll just spend a moment on this internal external pressure thing. My general experience with companies is that they can withstand most forms of external pressure as long as they retain internal coherence. So as long as the internal team is really bonded together and supporting each other, most forms of external pressure you can withstand. And by that I mean investors dump your stock, you lose your biggest customers, whatever negative article, negative headline, you can withstand all that. And basically, in fact, many of those forms of pressure can be bonding experiences for the team where they come out stronger.
What you 100% cannot withstand is the internal crack. And what I always look for in high pressure corporate situations now is the moment when the internal team cracks because I know the minute that happens, we’re in a different regime. It’s like the solid has turned into a liquid, we’re in a different regime, and the whole thing can unravel in the next week because then people turn, I mean, this is what’s happening in Los Angeles right now. The mayor and the fire chief turned on each other, and that’s it. That government is dysfunctional. It is never going to get put back together again. It is over. It is not going to work ever again. And that’s what happens to inside companies.
And so somebody like Mark is under profound internal pressure and external pressure at the same time. Now he’s been very good at maintaining the coherence of his executive team, but he has had over the years, a lot of activist employees as a lot of these companies have had and so that’s been continuous pressure.
And then the final thing I’d say is I said that companies can withstand most forms of external pressure, but not all [inaudible 01:31:21] though not all one is government pressure. Is it when your government comes for you? Yeah. Any CEO who thinks that they’re bigger than their government, has that notion beaten out of them in short order.
The second is Mark referenced this in the Rogan podcast. There’s a congressman Jim Jordan who has a congressional committee called the Weaponization Committee. And they, in the last, whatever three years, have done a full-scale investigation of this. And Facebook produced a lot of documents into that investigation and many of those have now been made public and you can download those reports. And there’s 2000 pages worth of material on that. And that’s essentially the Facebook version of the Twitter files just arrived at with a different mechanism.
And then third is Mark himself talking about this on Rogan, so I’ll just defer to his comments there. But yeah, basically what those three forms of information show you is basically the government over time and then culminating in 2020, 2021 in the last four years, just decided that the First Amendment didn’t apply to them. And they just decided that federal laws around free speech and around conspiracies to take away the rights of citizens just don’t apply. And they just decided that they can just arbitrarily pressure, just like literally arbitrarily call up companies and threaten and bully and yell and scream and threaten repercussions and force them to censor.
And there’s this whole thing of like, well, the First Amendment only applies to, the government, it doesn’t apply to companies. It’s like, well, there’s actually a little bit of nuance to that. First of all, it definitely applies to the government. 100%, the First Amendment applies to the government. By the way, so does the Fourth Amendment and the Fifth Amendment, including the right to due process, also applies to the government. There was no due process at all to any of the censorship regime that was put in place. There was no due process put in place, by the way, for de-banking either. Those are just as serious violations as the free speech violations. And so this is just flagrant, flagrant, unconstitutional behavior.
And then there are specific federal statutes, 18 241 and 18 242, and one of them applies to federal employees, government employees, and the other one applies to private actors around what’s called deprivation of rights and conspiracy to deprive rights. And it is not legal according to the United States Criminal Code for government employees or in a conspiracy private entities to take away constitutional rights. And interestingly, some of those constitutional rights are enumerated, for example, in the First Amendment, freedom of speech. And then some of those rights actually do not need to be enumerated. If the government takes away rights that you have, they don’t need to be specifically enumerated rights in the Constitution in order to still be a felony. The Constitution very specifically does not say you only have the rights that it gives you. It says you have all the rights that have not been previously defined as being taken away from you. And so de-banking qualifies as a right, right to access to the financial system, is every bit something that’s subject to these laws as free speech. And so yeah, this has happened.
And then I’ll just add one final thing, which is we’ve talked about two parties so far. We talked about the government employees and then we’ve talked about the companies. The government employees for sure have misbehaved. The companies, there’s a very interesting question there as to whether they are victims or perpetrators or both. They will defend, they will argue, and I believe they have a good case, that they are victims, not perpetrators, right? They’re the downstream subjects of pressure, not the cause of pressure, but there’s a big swath of people who are in the middle and specifically the ones that are funded by the government that I think are in possibly pretty big trouble. And that’s all of these third-party censorship bureaus.
I mean, the one that is most obvious is the so-called Stanford Internet Observatory that got booted up there over the last several years. And they basically were funded by the federal government to be third-party censorship operations. And they’re private sector actors, but acting with federal funding. And so it puts them in this very interesting spot where there could be very obvious theory under which they’re basically acting as agents of the government. And so I think they’re also very exposed on this and have behaved in just flagrantly illegal ways.
There’s subject to tens of thousands of regulations that they have to comply with. And the hammer that comes down when you don’t comply with regulations is profound. They can completely wreck your company with no ability for you to do anything about it. So regulation is a big part of the way the power gets exercised.
And then there’s called just flat out administrative power, the term that you’ll hear and administrative power is just literally the government telling you, calling you and telling you what to do. Here’s an example of how this works. So Facebook had this whole program a few years back to do a global cryptocurrency for payments called Libra. And they built the entire system and it was this high-scale sort of new cryptocurrency, and they were going to build into every product, and they were going to be 3 billion people who could transact with Libra. And they went to the government and they went to all these different, trying to figure out how to make it so it’s fully compliant with anti-money laundering and all these controls and everything. And they had the whole thing ready to go.
Two senators wrote letters to the big banks saying, “We’re not telling you that you can’t work with Facebook on this, but if you do, you should know that every aspect of your business is going to come under greatly increased level of regulatory scrutiny,” which is of course the exact equivalent of it sure is a nice corner restaurant you have here. It would be a shame if somebody tossed a Molotov cocktail through the window and burned it down tonight, right?
And so what is that letter? It’s not a law. It’s not even a regulation, it’s just.
I have no idea what part of this recent election mapped to the censorship regime. I do know a lot of people on the right got very angry about the censorship, but I think it probably at least helped with enthusiasm on that side. Maybe some people on the left will now not want their Democratic nominees to be so pro censorship. So the voters definitely get a vote, number one. Number two, I think you need transparency. You need to know what happened. We know some of what happened. Peter Thiel has written in the FT just now saying, after what we’ve been through in the last decade we need the broad-based truth and reconciliation efforts to really get to the root of things. So maybe that’s part of it. We need investigations for sure. Ultimately, we need prosecutions. Ultimately, we need people to go to jail. Because we need to set object lessons that say that you don’t get to do this. And on those last two, I would say those are both up to the new administration, and I don’t want to speak for them and I don’t want to predict what they’re going to do, but they for sure have the ability to do both of those things and we’ll see where they take it.
I think you said something actually quite profound there, which is the ring of power is infinitely tempting. The censorship machine is infinitely tempting. If you have it, you are going to use it. It’s overwhelmingly tempting because it’s so powerful, and that it will corrupt you. Yeah. I don’t know whether any of these people feel any of this today. They should. I don’t know if they do. But yeah. You go out five or 10 years later, you would hope that you would realize that your soul has been corroded and you probably started out thinking that you were a patriot and you were trying to defend democracy, and you ended up being extremely authoritarian and anti-democratic and anti-western.
But I think a lot of the stuff that gets people mad at him is like, it’s the social and political stuff, and it’s his statements, and then it’s the downstream effects of his statements. So for example, for the last couple of weeks, it’s been him weighing in on this rape gang scandal, this organized child rape thing in the UK. It’s a preface cascade. It’s one of these things where people knew there was a problem, they weren’t willing to talk about it, it got suppressed. And then Elon brought it up, and then all of a sudden there’s now in the UK this massive explosion of basically open conversation about it for the first time. It’s like this catalyzing, all of a sudden everybody’s woken up and being like, “Oh my God, this is really bad.” And there will be now pretty clearly big changes as a result.
And Elon, he played the role of the boy who said, the emperor has no clothes. But here’s the thing, here’s my point. He said it about something that was true. And so had he said it about something that was false, he would get no credit for it. He wouldn’t deserve any credit for it. But he said something that was true. And by the way, everybody over there instantly, they were like, “Oh, yeah, he’s right.” They’re just arguing the details now. So number one, it’s like, okay, he says true things. And so it’s like, okay, how far … Put it this way. How worried are we about somebody becoming corrupt by virtue of their power being that they get to speak the truth? And I guess I would say, especially in the last decade of what we’ve been through where everybody’s been lying all the time about everything, I’d say, I think we should run this experiment as hard as we can to get people to tell the truth. And so I don’t feel that bad about that.
And then the money side, this rapidly gets into the money in politics question. And the money in politics question is this very interesting question because it seems like there’s a clear cut case that the more money in politics, the worse things are and the more corrupted the system is. That was a very popular topic of public conversation up until 2016 when Hillary outspent Trump three to one and lost. You’ll notice that money in politics has almost vanished as a topic in the last eight years. And once again, Kamala raised and spent 1.5 billion on top of what Biden had spent. So they were at, I don’t know, something like three billion total and Trump, I think spent again, a third or a fourth of that. So the money in politics topic has vanished from the popular conversation in the last eight years. It has come back a little bit now that Elon is spending. But again, it’s like, okay, he’s spending, but the data would seem to indicate, at least in the last eight years, that money doesn’t win the political battles. The voters actually have a voice and they actually exercise it, and they don’t just listen to ads. And so again, there, I would say, yeah, clearly there’s some power there, but I don’t know if it’s some weapon that he can just turn on and use in a definitive way.
So the one thing that we’re all told, we’re all taught from early is that the best people in the world are the people who care about all of humanity. All of our figures are people who care about all of … Jesus cared about all of humanity. Gandhi cared about all of humanity. Martin Luther King cared about all of humanity. The person who cares the most about everybody. And with Elon, you have a guy who literally … He talks about this constantly, and he talks about exactly the same in private. He is literally, he is operating on behalf of all of humanity to try to get us … He goes through to get us through multi-planetary civilization so that we can survive a strike at any one planet so that we can extend the light of human consciousness into the world and into the universe and have it persist in the good of the whole thing. And literally the critique is, yeah, we want you to care about all of humanity, but not like that.
And this guy, Michels had this concept he ended up with called the Iron Law of Oligarchy. And so what the Iron Law of Oligarchy … Take a step back to say what he meant by oligarchy because it has multiple meanings. So basically, in classic political theory, there’s basically three forms of government at core. There’s democracy, which is rule of many, there’s oligarchy, which is rule of the few, and there’s monarchy, which is rule of the one. And you can just use that as a general framework of any government going to be under is going to be one of those. Just mechanical observation. Without even saying which one’s good or bad, just a structural observation. And so the question that Michels asked was, is there such a thing as democracy? Is there actually such a thing as democracy? Is there ever actually direct government? And what he did was he mounted this incredible historical exploration of whether democracies had ever existed in the world. And the answer basically is almost never. And we could talk about that.
But the other thing he did was he sought out the most democratic private organization in the world that he could find at that point, which he concluded was some basically communist German autoworkers union that was wholly devoted to the workers of the world uniting back when that was the hot thing. And he went in there and he is like, okay, this is the organization out of all organizations on planet Earth that must be operating as a direct democracy. And he went in there and he’s like, “Oh, nope.” There’s a leadership class. There’s like six guys at the top and they control everything and they lead the rest of the membership along by the nose, which is of course the story of every union. The story of every union is always the story of there’s a Jimmy Hoffa in there running the thing. We just saw that with the dock worker’s union. There’s a guy and he’s in charge. And by the way, the number two is his son. That’s not an accident.
So the Iron Law of Oligarchy basically says democracy is fake. There’s always a ruling class. There’s always a ruling elite structurally. And he said, “The reason for that is because the masses can’t organize.” What’s the fundamental problem? Whether the mass is 25,000 people in a union or 250 million people in a country, the masses can’t organize, the majority cannot organize, only a minority can organize. And to be effective in politics, you must organize. And therefore, every political structure in human history has been some form of a small organized elite ruling a large and dispersed majority. Every single one. The Greeks and the Florentines had brief experiments in direct democracy, and they were total disasters. In Florence … I forget the name of it. It was called The Workers’ Revolt or something like that. There was a two-year period where they basically experimented with direct democracy during the Renaissance, and it was a complete disaster and they never tried it again.
In the state of California, we have our own experiment on this, which is the proposition system, which is an overlay on top of the legislature. Anybody who looks at it for two seconds concludes it’s been a complete disaster. It’s just a catastrophe, and it’s caused enormous damage to the state. And so basically the presumption that we are in a democracy is just by definition, fake. Now, good news for the US. It turns out the founders understood this. And so of course they didn’t give us a direct democracy. They gave us a representative democracy. And so they built the oligarchy into the system in the form of Congress and the executive branch and the judicial branch. So anyway, so as a consequence, democracy is always everywhere fake. There is always a ruling elite. And basically the lesson of the Machiavellians is you can deny that if you want, but you’re fooling yourself. The way to actually think about how to make a system work and maintain any shred of freedom is to actually understand that that is actually what’s happening.
But what’s interesting is they didn’t choose one or the other. They did them both. And then to get legislation passed, you have to get through both of them. And so they built in a second layer of checks and balances. And then there’s a thousand observations we could make about how well the system is working today and how much does it live up to the ideal, and how much are we actually complying with the constitution? And there’s lots of open questions there, but this system has survived for coming on 250 years with a country that has been spectacularly successful. But I don’t think, at least … I don’t think any of us would trade the system for any other one. And so it’s one of the great all time achievements.
By the way, if the employees revolt, it’s also hard to stay in the seat. By the way, if the New York Times comes at you, it’s also very hard to stay in the seat. If the Senate comes at you, it’s very hard to stay in the seat. So a reductionist version of this that is a good shorthand is who can get who fired? So who has more power? The newspaper columnist who makes $200,000 a year, or the CEO who makes $200 million a year/ and it’s like, well, I know for sure that the columnist can get the CEO fired. I’ve seen that happen before I have yet to see a CEO get a columnist fired.
So there’s a fascinating thing playing out right now. Not to dwell on these fires. But you see the pressure reveals things, right? And so if you’ve been watching what’s happening with the LA Times recently. So this guy, biotech entrepreneur buys the LA Times, whatever, eight years ago. It is just like the most radical social revolutionary thing you can possibly imagine. It endorses every crazy left-wing radical you can imagine. It endorses Karen Bass, it endorses Gavin Newsom. It’s just a litany of all the people who are currently burning the city to the ground. It’s just like endorsed every single bad person every step of the way. He’s owned it the entire time. He for the first time, I think, put his foot down right before the November election and said, we’re not … He said, “We’re going to get out of this thing where we just always endorse the Democrat.” I think he said, “We’re not endorsing for the presidency.” And the paper flipped out. It’s like our billionaire backer who’s … And I don’t know what he spends, but he must be burning 50 or a hundred million dollars a year out of his pocket to keep this thing running.
He paid 500 million for it, which is amazing. Back when people still thought these things were businesses. And then he’s probably burned another 500 million over the last decade keeping it running. And he burns probably another 50, a hundred million a year to do this. And the journalists at the LA Times hate him with the fury of a thousand suns. They just absolutely freaking despise him, and they have been attacking him. The ones that can get jobs elsewhere quit and do it, and the rest just stay and say the worst, most horrible things about him. And they want to constantly run these stories attack him. And so he has had this reaction that a lot of people in LA are having right now to this fire and to this just incredibly vivid collapse of leadership. And all these people that his paper head endorsed are just disasters.
He’s on this tour. Basically he’s decided to be the boy who says the emperor has no clothes, but he’s doing it to his own newspaper. Very smart guy. He is on a press tour and he is basically saying, yes, we did all that and we endorsed all these people and it was a huge mistake and we’re going to completely change. And his paper is in a complete internal revolt. But I go through it, which is okay, now we have a very interesting question, which is who runs the LA Times? Because for the last eight years, it hasn’t been him. It’s been the reporters. Now for the first time, the owner is showing up saying, “Oh no, I’m actually in charge,” and the reporters are saying, “No, you’re not.” It is freaking on. And so again, the Machiavellian’s mindset on this is like, okay, how is power actually exercised here? Can a guy who’s even super rich and super powerful who even owns his own newspaper, can he stand up to a full scale assault, not only by his own reporters, but by every other journalism outlet who also now thinks he’s the Antichrist?
So it turns out with Bill’s … It’s such a fascinating case. He has that complete skill set. And he has now decided to bring it to bear in areas that are not just companies. And two interesting things for that. One is some of these places and some of these battles are still ongoing, but number one, a lot of people who run universities or newspapers are not used to being up against somebody like this. And by the way, also now with infinitely deep pockets and lots of experience in courtrooms and all the things that go with that. But the other is through example he is teaching a lot of the rest of us the activists playbook in real time. And so the Liam Neeson skill set is getting more broadly diffused just by being able to watch and learn from him. So I think he’s having a … I would put him up there with Elon in terms of somebody who’s really affecting how all this is playing out.
And so the concern, including from some very smart people in the last two years has been, boy, if Trump gets a second term, is he going to be able to get a team that is as good as the team he had last time or a team that is actually not as good? Because maybe people got burned out. Maybe they’re more cynical now. Maybe they’re not willing to go through the drama. By the way, a lot of people in the first term came under their own withering legal assaults, and some of them went to prison. A lot of stuff happened. Lots of investigations, lots of legal fees, lots of bad press, lots of debanking by the way. A lot of the officials in the first Trump term got debanked, including the president’s wife and son.
And so they’re going to get, I think, some of the best people from the first term, but they’re bringing in a lot of people who they couldn’t get the first time around. And then second is there’s a bunch of people, including people in the first term where they’re just 10 years older. And so they went through the first term and they just learned how everything works. Or there are young people who just had a different point of view and now they’re 10 years older and they’re ready to go serve in government. So there’s a generational shift happening. And actually one of the interesting things about the team that’s forming up is it’s remarkably young. Some of the cabinet members and then many of the second and third level people are in their 30s and 40s, which is a big change from the gerontocracy that we’ve been under for the last 30 years.
I think the caliber has been outstanding. And we could sit here and list tons and tons of people, but the people who are running. It’s everything from the people who are running all the different departments at HHS. The number two at the Pentagon is Steve Feinberg, who’s just an incredible legend of private equity, incredible capable guy. Actually two of my partners are going in who I both think are amazing. Many, many parts of the government the people are really impressive.
And the people thing is interesting, because you get into these very fascinating questions. And I’ve been doing this, I won’t do this for you as a pop quiz, but I do this for people in government as a pop quiz and I can stump them every time. Which is, A, how many federal agencies are there? And the answer is somewhere between 450 and 520, and nobody’s quite sure. And then the other is how many people work for the federal government? And the answer is something on the order, I forget, but like 4 million full-time employees and maybe up to 20 million contractors, and nobody’s quite sure. And so there’s a large people component to this. And then by the way, there’s a related component to that, which is how many of them are actually in the office? And the answer is not many, most of the federal buildings are still empty.
And then there’s questions of are people working from home or are we actually working from home? So there’s the people dimension, and of course the money and the people are connected. And then there’s the third, which is the regulation thing. And I described earlier how basically our system of government is much more now based on regulations than legislation. Most of the rules that we all live under are not from a bill that went through Congress, they’re from an agency that created a regulation. That turns out to be very, very important. So one is Elon had already described the DOGE wants to do broad-based regulatory relief, and Trump has talked about this, and basically get the government off of people’s backs and liberate the American people to be able to do things again. So that’s part of it. But there’s also something else that’s happened, which is very interesting, which was there were a set of Supreme Court decisions about two years ago that went directly after the idea that the executive branch can create regulatory agencies, and issue regulations and enforce those regulations without corresponding congressional legislation.
And most of the federal government that exists today, including most of the departments and most of the rules and most of the money and most of the people, most of it is not enforcing laws that Congress passed. Most of it is regulation. And the Supreme Court basically said, “Large parts, large to maybe all of that regulation that did not directly result from a bill that went through Congress, the way that the cartoon said that it should, may not actually be legal. Now, the previous White House, of course, was super in favor of big government. They did nothing based on this, they didn’t pull anything back in. But the new regime, if they choose to, could say, “Look, the thing that we’re doing here is not challenging the laws, we’re actually complying with the Supreme Court decision that basically says we have to unwind a lot of this and we have to unwind the regulations which are no longer legal, constitutional. We have to unwind the spend and we have to unwind the people.
And that’s how you get from basically you connect the thread from the regulation part back to the money part back to the people part. They have work going on all three of these threads. They have, I would say, incredibly creative ideas on how to deal with this. I know lots of former government people who 100% of them are super cynical on this topic, and they’re like, “This is impossible, this could never possibly work.” And I’m like, “Well, I can’t tell you what the secret plans are, but blow my mind.” And all three of those, they have ideas that are really quite amazing, as you’d expect from the people involved. And so over the course of the next few months, that’ll start to become visible. And then the final thing I would say is this is going to be very different than attempts, there have been other programs like this in the past. The Clinton-Gore administration had one and then there were others before that, Reagan had one. The difference is this time, their social media,
It’s interesting, one of the reasons people in Washington are so cynical is because they know all the bull shit. They know all the bad spending and all the bad rules. Look, we’re adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now. And that’s compounding, and it’s now passing the size of the defense department budget and it’s compounding, and pretty soon it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 90 days, and then it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 80 days, and then it’s going to be a trillion dollars every 70 days. And then if this doesn’t get fixed, at some point we enter a hyperinflationary spiral and we become Argentina or Brazil, and [inaudible 02:18:44]. And so everybody in D.C. knows that something has to be done, and then everybody in D.C. knows for a fact that it’s impossible to do anything.
They know all the problems and they also know the sheer impossibility of fixing it. But I think what they’re not taking into account, what the critics are not taking into account is these guys can do this in the full light of day. And they can do it on social media, they can completely bypass the press, they can completely bypass the cynicism. They can expose any element of unconstitutional or silly government spending. They can run victory laps every single day on what they’re doing. They can bring the people into the process. And again, if you think about it, this goes back to our Machiavellian structure, which is if you think about, again, you’ve got democracy, oligarchy, monarchy, rule of the many, rule of the few, rule of the one. You could think about what’s happening here as a little bit of a sandwich, which is we don’t have a monarch, but we have a president, rule of the one with some power.
And then we have the people who can’t organize, but they can be informed and they can be aware, and they can express themselves through voting and polling. So there’s a sandwich happening right now is the way to think about it, which is you’ve got basically rule of one combining with rule of many. And rule of many is they do get to vote, the people do get to vote basically, and then essentially Congress and this permanent bureaucratic class in Washington as the oligarchy in the middle. And so the White House plus the people I think have the power to do all kinds of things here, and I think that would be the way I would wash it.
And then that’s just one of those programs, there’s 100 of those programs. And they’re all just like that, it’s not like any of this stuff is running well. The one thing we know is that none of this stuff is running well, we know that for sure. And we know these people aren’t showing up to work, and we know that all this crazy stuff is happening. Do you remember Elon’s story of what got the Amish to turn out to vote in Pennsylvania? Oh, okay. So Pennsylvania is like a wonderful state, great history. It has these cities like Philadelphia that have descended other cities into just complete chaos, violent madness, and death. And the federal government has just let it happen, these incredibly violent places.
And so the Biden administration decided that the big pressing law enforcement thing that they needed to do in Pennsylvania was that they needed to start raiding Amish farms to prevent them from selling raw milk with armed raids. And it turns out it really pissed off the Amish. It turns out they weren’t willing to drive to the polling places because they don’t have cars, but if you came and got them, they would go and they would vote. And that’s one of the reasons why Trump won. Anyway, so the law enforcement agencies are off working on crazy things. The system’s not working. And so you add up, just pick $130 billion programs, all right, now you’re okay. Math major, 100 times 100.
Like, okay, A, that’s not what’s in the constitution. And there’s actually quite a good Wikipedia page that goes through the great debate on this that’s played out in the legal world over the last 60 years. And basically, if you look at this with anything resembling I think an open mind, you’re like, “All right, this is not what the founders meant.” And then number two, again, we go back to this thing of contempt. Can you imagine showing up and running the government like that and thinking that you’re doing the right thing, and not going home at night and thinking that you’ve sold your soul? I actually think you headed it a really good point, which is it’s even unfair to the people who have to execute this because it makes them bad people, and they didn’t start out wanting to be bad people. And so there is stuff like this.
Let’s start with this, where I ended up, in Silicon Valley, and I have made the pro high-skilled immigration argument many, many times, the H-1B argument many times. In past lives, I’ve been in D.C. many times arguing with prior administrations about this, always on the side of trying to get more H-1B’s and trying to get more high-skilled immigration. And I think that argument is very strong and very solid, and has paid off for the US in many, many ways. And we can go through it, but I think it’s the argument everybody already knows, it’s like the stock. You take any Silicon Valley person, you press the button and they tell you why we need to brain drain the world to get more H-1B’s. So everybody gets that argument.
And then the other part is, look, I benefit every day. I always describe it as I work in the United Nations, my own firm and our founders and our companies and the industry and my friends are just this amazing panoply, cornucopia of people from all over the world. And I’ve worked, I don’t know, at this point with people from, it’s got to be, I don’t know, 80 countries or something, and hopefully over time it’ll be the rest as well. And it’s been amazing, and they’ve done many of the most important things in my industry and it’s been really remarkable. So that’s all good. And then there’s just the practical version of the argument, which is we are the main place these people get educated anyway. The best and the brightest tend to come here to get educated. And so this is the old Mitt Romney, staple a green card to maybe not every university degree, but every technical degree. Maybe the sociologists we could quibble about, but the roboticists for sure, for sure. For sure, we can all agree that-
We don’t have enough good founders, we don’t have enough engineers, we don’t have enough scientists. Or then the next version of the argument below that is our education system is not good enough to generate those people, which is a weird argument by the way. Because our education system is good enough for foreigners to be able to come here preferentially in a very large number of cases, but somehow not good enough to educate our own native foreign people. So there’s little cracks in the matrix that you can stick your fingernail into and wonder about and we’ll come back to that one. But at least, yes, our education system has its flaws. And then underneath that is the argument that Vivek made, which is we have cultural rot in the country and native-born people in the country don’t work hard enough, and spend too much time watching TV and TikTok and don’t spend enough time studying differential equations.
And again, it’s like, all right, yeah, there’s a fair amount to that. There’s a lot of American culture that is, there’s a lot of frivolity, we have well-documented social issues on many fronts, many things that cut against having a culture of just straightforward, high achievement and effort and striving. But anyway, those are the basic arguments. But then I have this other side of my personality and thought process, which is, well, I grew up in a small farming town of rural Wisconsin, the rural Midwest, and it’s interesting, there’s not a lot of people who make it from rural Wisconsin to high tech.
And so it’s like, all right, why is that exactly? And I know this, I’m an aberration. I was the only one from anybody I ever knew who ever did this. I know what an aberration I am and I know exactly how that aberration happened, and it’s a very unusual set of steps, including many that were just luck. But there is in no sense a talent flow from rural Wisconsin into high tech, like not at all. There is also in no sense a talent flow from the rest of the Midwest into high tech. There is no talent flow from the south into high tech. There is no flow from the Sunbelt into high tech. There’s no flow from the deep south into high tech. Literally, it’s like the blanks. There’s this whole section of the country where the people just for some reason don’t end up in tech.
Now, that’s a little bit strange, because these are the people who put a man on the moon. These are the people who built the World War II War Machine. These are the people, at least their ancestors are the people who built the second industrial revolution, and built the railroads and built the telephone network and built logistics and transportation in the auto industry. The auto industry was built in Cleveland and Detroit. And so at least these people’s parents and grandparents and great grandparents somehow had the wherewithal to build all of these amazing things, invent all these things.
And then there’s many, many, many, many stories in the history of American invention and innovation and capitalism, where you had people who grew up in the middle of nowhere, Philo Farnsworth who invented the television, and just tons and tons of others, endless stories like this. Now you have a puzzle and the conundrum, which is like, okay, what is happening on the blank spot of the map? And then of course, you also can’t help noticing that the blank spot on the map, the Midwest, the South, you’ve also just defined Trump country, the Trump voter base.
And it’s like, oh, well, that’s interesting. How did that happen? And so either you really, really, really have to believe the very, very strong version of the Vivek thesis or something, where you have to believe that that basically culture, the whole civilization in the middle of the country and the south of the country is so deeply flawed, either inherently flawed or culturally flawed, such that for whatever reason, they’re not able to do the things that their parents and grandparents were able to do, and that their peers are able to do. Or something else is happening. Would you care to guess on what else is happening?
But the Supreme Court upheld it for a very long time. The most recent ruling, I’m not a lawyer, I don’t have the exact reference in my head, but there was a case in 2003 that said that Sandra Day O’Connor famously wrote that although it had been 30 years of affirmative action and although it was not working remotely as it had been intended, she said that, well, basically we need to try it for another 25 years. But she said basically as a message to future Supreme Court justices, if it hasn’t resolved basically the issues it’s intended to resolve within 25 years, then we should probably call it off. By the way, we’re coming up on the 25 years, it’s a couple of years away. The Supreme Court just had these cases, it’s a Harvard case and I think a University of North Carolina case.
And what’s interesting about those cases is the lawyers in those cases put a tremendous amount of evidence into the record of how the admissions decisions actually happen at Harvard and happen at UNC. And it is like every bit as cartoonishly garish and racist as you could possibly imagine, because it’s a ring of power. And if you’re an admissions officer at a private university or an administrator, you have unlimited power to do what you want, and you can justify any of it under any of these rules or systems. And up until these cases, it had been a black box where you didn’t have to explain yourself and show your work. And what the Harvard and UNC cases did is they basically required showing the work. And there was all kinds of phenomenal detail, number one is there were text messages in there that will just curl your hair, of students being spoken of and just crude racial stereotypes that would just make you want to jump out the window. It’s horrible stuff.
But also, there was statistical information. And of course, the big statistical kicker to the whole thing is that at top institutions, it’s common for different ethnic groups to have different cutoffs for SAT that are as wide as 400 points. So different groups. So specifically Asians need to perform at 400 SAT points higher than other ethnicities in order to actually get admitted into these. White people are a part of this, but Asians are a very big part of this. And actually the Harvard case is actually brought by an activist on behalf of actually the Asian students who are being turned away. And it’s the cliche now in the valley and in the medical community, which is like, if you want a super genius you hire an Asian from Harvard, because they are guaranteed to be freaking Einstein. Because if they weren’t, they were never getting admitted. Almost all the qualified Asians get turned away.
So they’ve been running this, it’s a very, very explicit, very, very clear program. This, of course, has been a third rail of things that people are not supposed to discuss under any circumstances. The thing that has really changed the tenor on this is I think two things. Number one, those Supreme Court cases, the Supreme Court ruled that they can no longer do that. I will tell you, I don’t believe there’s a single education institution in America that is conforming with the Supreme Court ruling, I think they’re all flagrantly ignoring it. And we could talk about that.
Well, another example of that is I think that every sitting member of the Supreme Court right now went to either Harvard or Yale, the level of incestuousness here is… Anyway, so there’s that. And so this has been running for a very long time. So one is the Harvard and UNC cases gave up the game, number one, or at least showed what the mechanism was. And then number two, the other thing is obviously the aftermath of October 7th, and what we discovered was happening with Jewish applicants and what was happening at all the top institutions for Jewish applicants was they were being managed down, either being actively managed down as a percentage of the base. And let’s say I’ve heard reports of extremely explicit basically plans to manage the Jewish admissions down to their representative percentage of the US population, which is 2%. And there’s a whole backstory here, which is 100 years ago, Jews were not admitted into a lot of these institutions, and then there was a big campaign to get them in.
Once they could get in, they immediately became 30% of these institutions because there are so many smart, talented Jews. So it went from 0% to 30%, and then the most recent generation of leadership has been trying to get it done to 2%. And a lot of Jewish people, at least a lot of Jewish people I know, they kind of knew this was happening but they discovered it the hard way after October 7th. So basically the Supreme Court case meant that you could address this in terms of the Asian victims. The October 7th meant that you could address it in terms of the Jewish victims. And for sure, both of those groups are being systematically excluded. And then of course, there’s the thing that you basically can’t talk about, which is all the white people are being excluded. And then it turns out it’s also happening to black people, and this is the thing that blew my freaking mind when I found out about it.
So I just assumed that this was great news for American Blacks, because obviously if Whites, Asians, and Jews are being excluded, then the whole point of this in the beginning was to get the Black population up, and so this must be great for American Blacks. So then I discovered this New York Times article from 2004 called Blacks are Being Admitted into Top Schools at Greater Numbers, but which ones? And by the way, this is in the New York Times, this is not in, whatever, The National Review, this is New York Times, 2004. And the two authorities that were quoted in the story are Henry Louis Gates, who’s the dean of the African-American Studies community in the United States, super brilliant guy. And then Lani Guinier, she was a potential Supreme Court appointee under, I think she was a close friend of Hillary Clinton.
And there was for a long time, she was on the short list for Supreme Court. So one of the top jurists, lawyers in the country, but both Black, legendarily successful in the academic and legal worlds and Black. And they are quoted as the authorities in this story, and the story that they tell, it’s actually amazing. And by the way, it’s happening today in education institutions and it’s happening in companies, and you can see it all over the place, and the government. Which is at least at that time, the number was half of the Black admits into a place like Harvard were not American-born Blacks, they were foreign-born Blacks, specifically Northern African, generally Nigerian or West Indian.
And by the way, many Nigerians and Northern Africans have come to the US and have been very successful. Nigerian-Americans as a group way outperform, they’re just a super smart cohort of people. And then West Indian Blacks in the US are incredibly successful. Most recently, by the way, Kamala Harris, as well as Colin Powell, just two examples of that. And so basically what Henry Louis Gates and Lani Guinier said in the story is Harvard is basically struggling to either, whatever it was, identify, recruit, make successful, whatever it was, American-born native Blacks, and so therefore they were using high-skill immigration as an escape hatch to go get Blacks from other countries. And then this was 2004 when you could discuss such things, obviously that is a topic that nobody has discussed since, it has sailed on. All of the DEI programs of the last 20 years have had this exact characteristic.
There’s large numbers of Black people in America who are fully aware of this and are like, “It’s obviously not us that are getting these slots, we’re literally competing with people who are being imported.” And if you believe in the basis of affirmative action, you were trying to make up for historical injustice of American Black slavery. So the idea that you import somebody from Nigeria that never experienced that is tremendously insulting to Black Americans. Anyway, so you can see where I’m heading with this. We have been in a 60-year social engineering experiment to exclude native-born people from the educational slots and jobs that high-skill immigration has been funneling foreigners into. And so it turns out it’s not a victim-free thing, there’s 100%, there’s victims. Because why? There’s only so many, for sure there’s only so many education slots, and then for sure, there’s only so many of these jobs. Google only hires so many, whatever, level seven engineers. And so that’s the other side of it, and so you’re a farm boy in Wisconsin.
And then DEI is just another word for affirmative action, so it’s the affirmative action conversation. And you need to actually deal with this at substance and to see what’s actually happening to people, you needed to join these topics. And I think it is much harder to make the moral claim for high-skilled immigration given the extent to which DEI took over both the education process and the hiring process.
Generally what you get is you get… Because if you don’t have experts, what do you have? You know something is wrong, but you have primarily an emotional response. You feel it, but can you put it into the words and tables and charts that a certified expert can? No, you can’t, that’s not who you are. That doesn’t mean that you’re wrong, and it also doesn’t mean that you have less of a moral stance. And so, it’s just like, all right… Now, by the way, look, I think there are ways to square the circle, I think there’s a way to have our cake and eat it too, I think there’d be many ways to resolve this. I think, again, I think the way to do it is to look at these issues combined, look at DEI combined with high-skilled immigration. It so happens that DEI is under much more scrutiny today than it has been for probably 20 years, affirmative action is. The Supreme Court did just rule that it is not legal for universities to do that, they are still doing it, but they should stop.
And then, there are more and more, you’ve seen more companies now also ditching their DEI programs, in part… That’s happening for a bunch of reasons, but it’s happening in part because a lot of corporate lawyers will tell you that the Supreme Court rulings in education either already apply to businesses, or it just is a clear foreshadowing the Supreme Court will rule on new cases that will ban in businesses. And so, there is a moment here to be able to look at this on both sides. Let me add one more nuance to it though, that makes it even more complicated. So, the cliché is we’re going to brain drain the world, you’ve heard that? We’re going to take all the smart people from all over the world, we’re going to bring them here, we’re going to educate them, and then we’re going to keep them, and then they’re going to raise their families here, create businesses here, create jobs here, right?
By the way, this is a potential… I know you care a lot about Ukraine, this is a potential crisis for Ukraine. In part because of this, because we enthusiastically recruit Ukrainians, of course, and so we’ve been brain draining Ukraine for a long time, but also, of course, war does tend to cause people to migrate out. And so, when it comes time for Ukraine to rebuild as a peaceful country, is it going to have the talent base even that it had five years ago, is a very big and important question. By the way, Russia, we have brain drained a lot of really smart people out of Russia, a lot of them are here, over the last 30 years. And so, there’s this thing, it’s actually really funny if you think about it, the one thing that we know to be the height of absolute evil that the West ever did was colonization and resource extraction.
So, we know the height of absolute evil was when the Portuguese and the English and everybody else went and had these colonies, and then went in and we took all the oil, and we took all the diamonds, or we took all the whatever, lithium or whatever it is. Well, for some reason we realized that that’s a deeply evil thing to do when it’s a physical resource, when it’s a non-conscious physical matter, for some reason we think it’s completely morally acceptable to do it with human capital. In fact, we think it’s glorious and beautiful and wonderful and the great flowering of peace and harmony and moral justice of our time to do it, and we don’t think for one second what we’re doing to the countries that we’re pulling all these people out of.
And this is one of these things, I don’t know, maybe we’re just going to live in this delusional state forever, and we’ll just keep doing it, and it’ll keep benefiting us, and we just won’t care what happens, but I think there may come… This is one of these submarines 10 feet under the water line, I think it’s just a matter of time until people suddenly realize, oh my God, what are we doing? We need the rest of the world to succeed too, we need these other countries to flourish. We don’t want to be the only successful country in the middle of just complete chaos and disaster, and we just extract and we extract and we extract, and we don’t think twice about it.
One is basically a small set of big tech companies that hire in volume, which is exactly the companies that you would think, and then the other is it goes to these, what they call the mills, the consulting mills. And so, there’s these set of companies with names, I don’t want to pick on companies, but names like Cognizant, that hire, basically have their business model is bringing in primarily Indians in large numbers, and they often have offices next to company-owned housing, and they’ll have organizations that are literally thousands of Indians living and working in the US, and they do basically call it mid-tier IT consulting. So, these folks, they’re making good wages, but they’re making 60 or 80 a or 100,000 a year, not the 300,000 that you’d make in the Valley.
And so, in practice, the startups, basically little tech as we call it, or the startup world, mainly doesn’t use H-1Bs at this point, and mainly can’t, because the system is kind of rigged in a way that we really can’t. And then, again, you get to the underlying morality here, which is, it’s like, well, Amazon, Amazon’s… I love Amazon. But they’re a big powerful company, they’ve got more money than God, they’ve got resources, they’ve got long-term planning horizon, they do big profound things over decades at a time, they could, or any of these other companies, could launch massively effective programs to go recruit the best and brightest from all throughout the country. And you’ll notice they don’t do that, they bring in 10,000, 20,000 H1Bs a year. And so, you’ve got a question there, and then these mills, there’s lots of questions around them, and whether that’s even an ethical way… I don’t want to say they’re unethical, but there’s questions around exactly what the trade-offs are there. And this like is a Pandora’s box that really nobody really wanted to be opened. To play devil’s advocate in all this, in terms of national immigration issues, none of this is a top end issue, just because the numbers are small, and so I don’t think, the administration has said this is not a priority of theirs for right now. But I guess what I would say is, there is actually a lot of complexity and nuance here. Like I said, I have a lot of friends and colleagues who came over on H-1Bs or O-1s, green cards, many are now citizens, and every single one of them was… Not every single one. A lot of them were enthusiastic to defend the honor of immigrants throughout this whole period. And they said to me, it’s like, well, Marc, how can we more clearly express the importance of high school immigration to the US?
And I was like, I think you can do it by advocating for also developing our native-born talent. Do you want to inflame the issue or do you want to diffuse the issue? I think the answer is to diffuse the issue. Let me give you one more positive scenario, and then I’ll also beat up on the university some more. Do you know about the National Merit Scholarship System, have you heard about this?
And so they, they’ve tried to detach it from being an IQ proxy because IQ is such an inflammatory concept. And the consequence of that is, and this is sort of perverse, they’ve made it more coachable, right? So, the SAT 40 years ago, coaching didn’t really work, and more recently it has really started to work. And one of the things you see is that the Asian spike, you see this giant leap upward in Asian performance over the last decade, and I think, looking at the data, I think a lot of that is because it’s more coachable now, and the Asians do the most coaching. So, there’s a bunch of issues with this. And so, the coaching thing is really difficult because the coaching thing is a subsidy then to the kids whose parents can afford coaching, and I don’t know about you, but where I grew up, there was no SAT coaching. So, there’s an issue there. I didn’t even know what the SAT was until the day I took it, much less that there was coaching, much less that it could work, so much less we could afford it.
So, number one, there’s issues there. But the other issue there is think about what’s happened by the dumbing down, 800 no longer captures all the smart, 800 is too crude of a test. It’s like the AI benchmarking problem. It’s the same problem they have AI benchmarking right now, 800 is too low of a threshold. There are too many kids scoring 800. Because what you want is you want, whatever, if it’s going to be 100,000 kids, I don’t know what it is, if it’s going to be 50,000 kids a year scoring 800, you also then want kids to be able to score 900 and 1000, and 1100, and 1200, and you want to ultimately get to, you’d like to ultimately identify the top 100 kids, and make sure that you get them in MIT. And the resolution of the test has been reduced so that it actually is not useful for doing that.
And again, I would say this is part of the generalized corruption that’s taken place throughout this entire system, where we have been heading in the reverse direction from wanting to actually go get the best and brightest and actually put them in the places where they should be. And then, just the final comment would be, the great thing about standardized testing and the National Merit System is it’s, like I said, it’s completely race blind, it’s gender blind, it’s blind on every other characteristic, it’s only done on test scores. And you can make an argument about whether that’s good or bad, but it is, for sure, it’s the closest thing that we had to get to merit. It was the thing that they did when they thought they needed merit to win the Cold War.
And of course, we could choose to do that anytime we want. And I just say, I find it incredibly striking, and an enormous moral indictment of the current system that there are no universities that do this today. So, back to the immigration thing, just real quick, it’s like, okay, we aren’t even trying to go get the smart kids out of [inaudible 03:03:39], and even if they think that they can get into these places, they get turned down. And the same thing for the smart Asians, and the same thing for the smart Jews, and the same thing for the smart Black people. And I don’t know how that’s moral, I don’t get it at all.
And so, everybody I know who works in the field says AI coding is going to get to be phenomenally good. And it’s already great. And anybody who wants to see this, just go on YouTube and look at AI coding demos, little kids making apps in 10 minutes, working with an AI coding system. And so, I think it’s the golden age… I think this is an area where it’s clearly the golden age. The tool set is extraordinary. In a day as a coder, for sure, in a day you can retrain yourself, start using these things, get a huge boost in productivity, as a non-coder, you can learn much more quickly than you could before.
And there’s a whole bunch of, I’ll name names, Khan Academy… There’s a whole bunch of work that they’re doing at Khan Academy for free, and then we have this company, Replit, which was originally specifically built for kids for coding, that has AI built in, that’s just absolutely extraordinary now. And then, there’s a variety of other systems like this. Yeah, the AI is going to be able to teach to code… AI, by the way, is, as you know, is spectacularly good at explaining code. And so, the tools have these features now where you can talk to the code base, and so you can literally ask the code base questions about itself. And you can also just do the simple form, which is you can copy and paste code into a ChatGPT and just ask it to explain it, what’s going on, rewrite it, improve it, make recommendations. And so, there’s dozens of ways to do this.
By the way, you can also, even more broadly than code, like, okay, you want to make a video game, okay, now you can do AI, art generation, sound generation, dialogue generation, voice generation, all of a sudden you don’t need designers, you don’t need voice actors. Yeah, there’s just unlimited…And then a big part of coding is so-called glue, it’s interfacing into other systems. So, it’s interfacing into Stripe, to take payments, or something like that, and AI is fantastic at writing glue code. So, really, really good at making sure that you can plug everything together, really good at helping you figure out how to deploy. It’ll even write a business plan for you. So, it’s just this, it’s like everything happening with AI right now, it’s like this latent superpower, and there’s this incredible spectrum of people who have really figured out massive performance increases, productivity increases with it already, there’s other people who aren’t even aware it’s happening.
And there’s some gearing to whether you’re a coder or not, but I think there are lots of non-coders that are off to the races, and I think there are lots of professional coders who are still like, eh… The blacksmiths were not necessarily in favor of the car business. So, there’s the old William Gibson quote, “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet,” and this is maybe the most potent version of that that I’ve ever seen.
My guess is we’ll have more coding jobs probably by an order of magnitude 10 years from now. That will be different, they’ll be different jobs, they’ll involve orchestrating AI, but we will be creating so much more software that the whole industry will just explode in size.
Because one of the things that AI should be pretty good at is managing because it’s process-driven, it’s the kind of thing that AI is actually pretty good at, right? Performance evaluation, coaching. And so, should it be an AI executive team? And then, of course, the ultimate question, which is AI CEO. And then, maybe the most futuristic version of it would be an actual AI agent that actually goes fully autonomous. Yeah, what if you really set one of these things loose and let it basically build itself a business? And so, I will say, we’re not yet seeing those, and I think there’s a little bit of the systems aren’t quite ready for that yet, and then I think it’s a little bit of, you really do need, at that point, a founder who’s really willing to break all the rules, and really willing to take the swing, and those people exist, and so I’m sure we’ll see that.
And look, the most obvious example of the flux is sitting here less than three years ago, sitting here in December of ’22, we would’ve said that Open Ai is just running away with everything. And sitting here today, it’s like there’s at least six world-class God model companies and teams that are, by the way, generating remarkably similar results. That’s actually been one of the most shocking things to me is it turns out that once you know that it’s possible to build one incredibly smart Turing Test-passing large language model, which was a complete shock and surprise to the world, it turns out within a year you can have five more. There’s also a money component thing to it, which is to get the money to scale one of these things into the billions of dollars. There’s basically right now only two sources of money that will do that for you. One is the hyperscalers giving you the money which you turn around and round trip back to them, or foreign sovereigns, other country sovereign wealth funds, which can be difficult in some cases, for companies to access.
So there’s maybe another trillion-dollar question is the financing question. Here’s one. So Sam Altman has been public about the fact that he wants to transition OpenAI from being a non-profit to being a for-profit. The way that that is legally done is that … And there is a way to do it, there is a way in US law to do it. The IRS and other legal entities, government entities, scrutinizes this very carefully because the US takes foundation non-profit law very seriously because of the tax exemption.
And so historically, the way that you do it is you start a for-profit and then you raise money with the for-profit to buy the assets of the non-profit at fair market value. And the last financing round at OpenAI was 150 some billion dollars. And so logically, if the flip is going to happen, the for-profit has to go raise 150 billion out of the chute to buy the assets. Raising 150 billion is a challenge. So is that even possible? If that is possible, then OpenAI maybe is off to the races as a for-profit company. If not, I don’t know. And then obviously the Elon lawsuit. So just because they’re the market leader today, there’s big important questions there. Microsoft has this kind of love-hate relationship with them. Where does that go? Apple’s lagging badly behind, but they’re very good at catching up. Amazon is primarily hyperscalar, but they now have their own models.
But at discussing philosophy, they’re basically as smart as they’re ever going to be. And they’re going to be kind of say mid-wit grad student level. And the theory there would just be they’re already out of training data. They literally, you talk to these people, literally the big models, the big models are within a factor of 2X of consuming all the human-generated training data, to the point that some of these big companies are literally hiring people like doctors and lawyers to sit and write new training data by hand. And so does this mean that you have to, if you want your model to get better philosophy, you have to go hire a thousand philosophers and have them write new content, and is anybody going to do that? And so maybe these things are topping out in certain ways and they’re going to leap way ahead in other ways.
Anyway, so we just don’t … Actually, maybe my main conclusion is anybody telling you these big sweeping conclusions, this whole, all of these abstract generalized super intelligence AGI stuff, maybe it’s the engineer in me, but no, that’s too abstract. It’s got to actually work. And then by the way, it has to actually have to be able to pay for it. I mean, this is a problem right now with the big models, the big models that are really good at coding and math. They’re actually very expensive to run. They’re quite slow.
Another trillion-dollar question, future chips, which I know you’ve talked a lot about. Another trillion-dollar question, yeah, I mean all the global issues. Oh, another trillion-dollar question, censorship. And, as they say, all the human feedback training process. Exactly what are you training these things to do? What are they allowed to talk about? How long do they give you these … How often do they give these incredibly preaching moral lectures?
Here’s a trillion-dollar question. How many other countries want their country to run its education system, healthcare system, new system, political system, on the basis of an AI that’s been trained according to the most extreme left-wing California politics? Because what they have on offer right now. And I think the answer to that is not very many. So there’s massive open questions there about, and by the way, what morality of these things are going to get trained on as a …
But look, those same questions also apply outside the US and the EU is doing their thing. They’re being extremely draconian and they’re trying to lock in a political censorship regime on AI right now that’s so harsh that even American AI companies are not even willing to launch new products in the EU right now. That’s not going to last. But what happens there and what are the trade-offs? What levels of censorship are American companies going to have to sign up for if they want to operate in the EU? Or is the EU still capable of generating its own AI companies or have we brain drained them so that they can’t? So big questions.
And then the other is crypto’s going to come right back to life. And actually that’s very exciting. Actually, that’s worth noting is that’s another trillion-dollar question on AI, which is in a world of pervasive AI, and especially in a world of AI agents, and imagine a world of billions or trillions of AI agents running around, they need an economy. And crypto, in our view, happens to be the ideal economic system for that, because it’s a programmable money. It’s a very easy way to plug in and do that. And there’s this transaction processing system that can do that. And so I think the crypto AI intersection is potentially a very, very big deal. And so that was going to be impossible under the prior regime, and I think under the new regime, hopefully, it’ll be something we can do.
And I actually, I try to do this thing where I try to model, try to have a mental model of the two different sides of a serious argument. And so I’ve tried to internalize that argument as much as I can. Which is difficult because we’re investing it behind LLMs as aggressively as we can. And so if he’s right, that could be a big problem, but we should also know that. And then I sort of use his ideas to challenge all the bullish people to really test their level of knowledge. So I like to grill people.
I got my CS degree 35 years ago, so I’m not deep in the technology, but to the extent I can understand Yann’s points, I can use them to really surface a lot of the questions for the people who are more bullish. And that’s been, I think, very, very productive. So it is very striking that you have somebody who is that central in the space, who is actually a full-on skeptic. And again, this could go different ways. He could end up being very wrong. He could end up being totally right, or it could be that he will provoke the evolution of these systems to be much better than they would’ve been.
The other thing though, that’s happened, and maybe the more practical answer to the question is I think I have a much better understanding now of the role that religion plays in society that I didn’t have when I was younger. And my partner, Ben has a great … I think he quotes his father on this. He’s like, “If a man does not have a real religion, he makes up a fake one, and the fake ones go very, very badly.”
And so there’s this, it’s actually really funny, there’s this class of intellectual … There’s this class of intellectual that has what appears to be a very patronizing point of view, which is, “Yes, I’m an atheist, but it’s very important that the people believe in something.” And Marx had the negative view on that, which is religion is the opiate of the masses. But there’s a lot of right-wing intellectuals who are themselves, I think, pretty atheist or agnostic, that are like, it’s deeply important that the people be Christian or something like that. And on the one hand it’s like, wow, that’s arrogant and presumptive. But on the other hand, maybe it’s right because what have we learned in the last hundred years is in the absence of a real religion, people will make up fake ones.
There’s this writer, there’s this political philosopher who’s super interesting on this named Eric Voegelin. And he wrote in the mid-part of the century, mid-late-part of the 20th century, he was born in, I think, 1900, died in ’85. So he saw the complete run of communism and Nazism and himself fled, I think he fled Europe and the whole thing. His big conclusion was basically that both communism and Nazism, fascism, were basically religions, but in the deep way of religions. We call them political religions, but they were like actual religions. And they were what Nietzsche forecasted when he said, “God is dead. We’ve killed him, and we won’t wash the blood off our hands for a thousand years.” Is we will come up with new religions that will just cause just mass murder and death. And you read his stuff now and you’re like, “Yep, that happened.”
And then of course, as fully elite moderates, of course, we couldn’t possibly be doing that for ourselves right now, but, of course, we are. And I would argue that Eric Voegelin, for sure, would argue that the last 10 years we have been in a religious frenzy, that woke has been a full scale religious frenzy and has had all of the characteristics of a religion, including everything from patron saints to holy texts, to sin. Wokeness has, I think, has had every single aspect of an actual religion other than redemption, which is maybe the most dangerous religion you could ever come up with, is the one where there’s no forgiveness. And so I think if Voegelin were alive, I think he would’ve zeroed right in on that, would’ve said that. And we just sailed right off. I mentioned earlier we somehow rediscover the religions of the Indo-Europeans. We’re all into identity politics and environmentalism. I don’t think that’s an accident.
So anyway, there is something very deep going on in the human psyche, on religion, that is not dismissible and needs to be taken seriously. Even if one struggles with the specifics of it.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:09 – Best possible future
- 10:32 – History of Western Civilization
- 19:51 – Trump in 2025
- 27:32 – TDS in tech
- 40:19 – Preference falsification
- 56:15 – Self-censorship
- 1:11:18 – Censorship
- 1:19:57 – Jon Stewart
- 1:22:43 – Mark Zuckerberg on Joe Rogan
- 1:31:32 – Government pressure
- 1:42:19 – Nature of power
- 1:55:08 – Journalism
- 2:00:43 – Bill Ackman
- 2:05:40 – Trump administration
- 2:13:19 – DOGE
- 2:27:11 – H1B and immigration
- 3:05:05 – Little tech
- 3:17:25 – AI race
- 3:26:15 – X
- 3:29:47 – Yann LeCun
- 3:33:21 – Andrew Huberman
- 3:34:53 – Success
- 3:37:49 – God and humanity
Introduction
Marc Andreessen
I mean, look, we’re adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now, and it’s now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and it’s compounding, and pretty soon it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 90 days, and then it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 80 days, and then it’s going to be a trillion dollars every 70 days. And then if this doesn’t get fixed, at some point, we enter a hyper-inflationary spiral and we become Argentina or Brazil. And …
I mean, look, we’re adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now, and it’s now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and it’s compounding, and pretty soon it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 90 days, and then it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 80 days, and then it’s going to be a trillion dollars every 70 days. And then if this doesn’t get fixed, at some point, we enter a hyper-inflationary spiral and we become Argentina or Brazil. And …
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Marc Andreessen, his second time on the podcast. Marc is a visionary tech leader and investor who fundamentally shaped the development of the internet and the tech industry in general over the past 30 years. He’s the co-creator of Mosaic, the first widely used web browser, co-founder of Netscape, co-founder of the legendary Silicon Valley venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz, and is one of the most influential voices in the tech world, including at the intersection of technology and politics. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Marc Andreessen.
The following is a conversation with Marc Andreessen, his second time on the podcast. Marc is a visionary tech leader and investor who fundamentally shaped the development of the internet and the tech industry in general over the past 30 years. He’s the co-creator of Mosaic, the first widely used web browser, co-founder of Netscape, co-founder of the legendary Silicon Valley venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz, and is one of the most influential voices in the tech world, including at the intersection of technology and politics. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Marc Andreessen.
Best possible future
Lex Fridman
All right, let’s start with optimism. If you were to imagine the best possible 1 to 2 years, 2025, ’26 for tech, for big tech and small tech, what would it be? What would it look like? Lay out your vision for the best possible scenario trajectory for America?
All right, let’s start with optimism. If you were to imagine the best possible 1 to 2 years, 2025, ’26 for tech, for big tech and small tech, what would it be? What would it look like? Lay out your vision for the best possible scenario trajectory for America?
Marc Andreessen
The roaring 20s.
The roaring 20s.
Lex Fridman
The roaring 20s.
The roaring 20s.
Marc Andreessen
The roaring 20s. I mean, look, couple of things. It is remarkable over the last several years with all of the issues including not just everything in politics, but also COVID and every other thing that’s happened. It’s really amazing, the United States just kept growing. If you just look at economic growth charts, the US just kept growing and very significantly, many other countries stopped growing. So Canada stopped growing, the UK has stopped growing, Germany has stopped growing, and some of those countries may be actually growing backwards at this point. And there’s a very long discussion to be had about what’s wrong with those countries. And there’s of course, plenty of things that are wrong with our country, but the US is just flat out primed for growth. And I think that’s a consequence of many factors, some of which are lucky and some of which through hard work.
The roaring 20s. I mean, look, couple of things. It is remarkable over the last several years with all of the issues including not just everything in politics, but also COVID and every other thing that’s happened. It’s really amazing, the United States just kept growing. If you just look at economic growth charts, the US just kept growing and very significantly, many other countries stopped growing. So Canada stopped growing, the UK has stopped growing, Germany has stopped growing, and some of those countries may be actually growing backwards at this point. And there’s a very long discussion to be had about what’s wrong with those countries. And there’s of course, plenty of things that are wrong with our country, but the US is just flat out primed for growth. And I think that’s a consequence of many factors, some of which are lucky and some of which through hard work.
And so the lucky part is just number one, we just have incredible physical security by being our own continent. We have incredible natural resources. There’s this running joke now that whenever it looks like the US is going to run out of some rare earth material, some farmer in North Dakota kicks over a hay bale and finds a $2 trillion deposit. I mean, we’re just blessed with geography and with natural resources. Energy. We can be energy independent anytime we want. This last administration decided they didn’t want to be, they wanted to turn off American energy. This new administration has declared that they have a goal of turning it on in a dramatic way. There’s no question we can be energy independent, we can be a giant net energy exporter. It’s purely a question of choice, and I think the new administration’s going to do that. And then I would say two other things.
One is we are the beneficiaries, and you’re an example of this. We’re a beneficiary. We’re the beneficiary of 50, 100, 200 years of the basically most aggressive driven, smartest people in the world, most capable people moving to the US and raising their kids here. And so we’re by far the most dynamic population, most aggressive, we’re the most aggressive set of characters, certainly in any Western country and have been for a long time, and certainly are today.
And then finally, I would just say, look, we are overwhelmingly the advanced technology leader. We have our issues and we have, I would say particular issue with manufacturing, which we could talk about. But for anything in software, anything in AI, anything in all these … Advanced biotech, all these advanced areas of technology, we’re by far the leader. Again, in part because many of the best scientists and engineers in those fields come to the US. And so we have all of the preconditions for just a monster boom. I could see economic growth going way up, I could see productivity growth going way up, rate of technology adoption going way up. And then we can do a global tour, if you like. But basically, all of our competitors have profound issues, and we could go through them one by one, but the competitive landscape just is … It’s like it’s remarkable how much better positioned we are for growth.
Lex Fridman
What about the humans themselves? Almost a philosophical question. I travel across the world and there’s something about the American spirit, the entrepreneurial spirit that’s uniquely intense in America. I don’t know what that is. I’ve talked to Saagar who claims it might be the Scots-Irish blood that runs through the history of America. What is it? You, at the heart of Silicon Valley, is there something in the water? Why is there this entrepreneurial spirit?
What about the humans themselves? Almost a philosophical question. I travel across the world and there’s something about the American spirit, the entrepreneurial spirit that’s uniquely intense in America. I don’t know what that is. I’ve talked to Saagar who claims it might be the Scots-Irish blood that runs through the history of America. What is it? You, at the heart of Silicon Valley, is there something in the water? Why is there this entrepreneurial spirit?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. So is this a family show or am I allowed to swear?
Yeah. So is this a family show or am I allowed to swear?
Lex Fridman
You can say whatever the fuck you want.
You can say whatever the fuck you want.
Marc Andreessen
Okay. So the great TV show, succession, the show of course, which you were intended to root for exactly zero of the characters.
Okay. So the great TV show, succession, the show of course, which you were intended to root for exactly zero of the characters.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Marc Andreessen
The best line from succession was in the final episode of the first season when the whole family’s over in Logan Roy’s ancestral homeland of Scotland. And they’re at this castle for some wedding. And Logan is just completely miserable because he’s been in New York for 50 years, he’s totally miserable being back in Scotland. And he gets in some argument with somebody and he says, finally just says, “My God, I cannot wait to get out of here and go back to America where we can fuck without condoms.”
The best line from succession was in the final episode of the first season when the whole family’s over in Logan Roy’s ancestral homeland of Scotland. And they’re at this castle for some wedding. And Logan is just completely miserable because he’s been in New York for 50 years, he’s totally miserable being back in Scotland. And he gets in some argument with somebody and he says, finally just says, “My God, I cannot wait to get out of here and go back to America where we can fuck without condoms.”
Lex Fridman
Was that a metaphor or … Okay
Was that a metaphor or … Okay
Marc Andreessen
Exactly. No, but it’s exactly the thing, and everybody instantly knows what … Everybody watching that instantly starts laughing because you know what it means, which it’s exactly this. I think there’s an ethnographic way of it. There’s a bunch of books on, like you said, the Scots-Irish, like all the different derivations of all the different ethnic groups that have come to the US over the course of the last 400 years. But what we have is this sort of amalgamation of the Northeast Yankees who are super tough and hardcore. Yeah, the Scots-Irish are super aggressive. We’ve got the Southerners and the Texans and the whole blended kind of Anglo-Hispanic thing, super, incredibly tough, strong, driven, capable characters. The Texas Rangers, we’ve got the California, we’ve got the wild, we’ve got the incredibly inventive hippies, but we also have the hardcore engineers. We’ve got the best rocket scientists in the world. We’ve got the best artists in the world, creative professionals, the best movies.
Exactly. No, but it’s exactly the thing, and everybody instantly knows what … Everybody watching that instantly starts laughing because you know what it means, which it’s exactly this. I think there’s an ethnographic way of it. There’s a bunch of books on, like you said, the Scots-Irish, like all the different derivations of all the different ethnic groups that have come to the US over the course of the last 400 years. But what we have is this sort of amalgamation of the Northeast Yankees who are super tough and hardcore. Yeah, the Scots-Irish are super aggressive. We’ve got the Southerners and the Texans and the whole blended kind of Anglo-Hispanic thing, super, incredibly tough, strong, driven, capable characters. The Texas Rangers, we’ve got the California, we’ve got the wild, we’ve got the incredibly inventive hippies, but we also have the hardcore engineers. We’ve got the best rocket scientists in the world. We’ve got the best artists in the world, creative professionals, the best movies.
So yeah, I would say all of our problems, I think are basically, in my view, to some extent, attempts to basically sand all that off and make everything basically boring and mediocre. But there is something in the national spirit that basically keeps bouncing back. And basically what we discover over time is we basically just need people to stand up at a certain point and say, “It’s time to build, it’s time to grow, it’s time to do things.” And there’s something in the American spirit that just roars right back to life. And I’ve seen it before. I saw it as a kid here in the early 80s because the 70s were horribly depressing in the US. They were a nightmare on many fronts. And in a lot of ways, the last decade to me has felt a lot like the 70s just being mired in misery and just this self-defeating negative attitude and everybody’s upset about everything. And then by the way, energy crisis and hostage crisis and foreign wars and just demoralization.
The low point in the 70s was Jimmy Carter who just passed away, he went on TV and he gave this speech known as the Malaise Speech, and it was like the weakest possible, trying to rouse people back to a sense of passion, completely failed. And we had the hostages in Iran for I think 440 days. And every night on the nightly news, it was lines around the block, energy crisis, depression, inflation. And then Reagan came in and Reagan was a very controversial character at the time. And he came in and he’s like, “Yep, nope, it’s morning in America and we’re the shining city on the hill, and we’re going to do it.” And he did it, and we did it. And the national spirit came roaring back and roared really hard for a full decade. I think that’s exactly what … I think we’ll see, but I think that’s what could happen here.
Lex Fridman
And I just did a super long podcast on Milton Friedman with Jennifer Burns, who’s this incredible professor at Stanford, and he was part of the Reagan … So there’s a bunch of components to that, one of which is economic, and one of which maybe you can put a word on it of not to be romantic or anything, but freedom, individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, and just in general, individualism.
And I just did a super long podcast on Milton Friedman with Jennifer Burns, who’s this incredible professor at Stanford, and he was part of the Reagan … So there’s a bunch of components to that, one of which is economic, and one of which maybe you can put a word on it of not to be romantic or anything, but freedom, individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, and just in general, individualism.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, that’s right. Yeah. As you know this, America has this incredible streak of individualism. Individualism in America probably peaked, I think between roughly call it the end of the Civil War, 1865 through to probably call it 1931 or something. And there was this incredible rush. I mean that period, we now know that period as the second Industrial Revolution, and it’s when the United States basically assumed global leadership and basically took over technological and economic leadership from England. And then that led to ultimately then therefore being able to not only industrialize the world, but also win World War II and then win the Cold War. And yeah, there’s a massive individualistic streak. By the way, Milton Friedman’s old videos are all on YouTube. They are every bit as compelling and inspiring as they were then. He’s a singular figure. And many of us, I never knew him, but he was actually at Stanford for many years at the Hoover Institution, but I never met him, but I know a lot of people who worked with him and he was a singular figure. But all of his lessons live on or are fully available.
Yeah, that’s right. Yeah. As you know this, America has this incredible streak of individualism. Individualism in America probably peaked, I think between roughly call it the end of the Civil War, 1865 through to probably call it 1931 or something. And there was this incredible rush. I mean that period, we now know that period as the second Industrial Revolution, and it’s when the United States basically assumed global leadership and basically took over technological and economic leadership from England. And then that led to ultimately then therefore being able to not only industrialize the world, but also win World War II and then win the Cold War. And yeah, there’s a massive individualistic streak. By the way, Milton Friedman’s old videos are all on YouTube. They are every bit as compelling and inspiring as they were then. He’s a singular figure. And many of us, I never knew him, but he was actually at Stanford for many years at the Hoover Institution, but I never met him, but I know a lot of people who worked with him and he was a singular figure. But all of his lessons live on or are fully available.
But I would also say it’s not just individualism, and this is one of the big things. It’s playing out in a lot of our culture and kind of political fights right now, which is basically this feeling, certainly that I have and I share with a lot of people, which is it’s not enough for America to just be an economic zone, and it’s not enough for us to just be individuals, and it’s not enough to just have line go up, and it’s not enough to just have economic success. There are deeper questions at play, and also there’s more to a country than just that. And quite frankly, a lot of it is intangible. A lot of it involves spirit and passion. And like I said, we have more of it than anybody else, but we have to choose to want it.
The way I look at, it’s like all of our problems are self-inflicted. Decline is a choice. All of our problems are basically demoralization campaigns, basically people telling us, people in positions of authority telling us that, “We shouldn’t stand out, we shouldn’t be adventurous, we shouldn’t be exciting, we shouldn’t be exploratory, we shouldn’t this, that, and the other thing. And we should feel bad about everything that we do.” And I think we’ve lived through a decade where that’s been the prevailing theme. And I think quite honestly, as of November, I think people are done with it.
History of Western Civilization
Lex Fridman
If we could go on a tangent of a tangent, since we’re talking about individualism, and that’s not all that it takes. You’ve mentioned in the past the book The Ancient City by, if I could only pronounce the name, French historian Numa Denis Fustel de Coulanges. I don’t know.
If we could go on a tangent of a tangent, since we’re talking about individualism, and that’s not all that it takes. You’ve mentioned in the past the book The Ancient City by, if I could only pronounce the name, French historian Numa Denis Fustel de Coulanges. I don’t know.
Marc Andreessen
That was amazing.
That was amazing.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right. From the 19th century. Anyway, you said this is an important book to understand who we are and where we come from.
Okay. All right. From the 19th century. Anyway, you said this is an important book to understand who we are and where we come from.
Marc Andreessen
So what that book does, it’s actually quite a striking book. So that book is written by this guy as a [inaudible 00:11:02] Let Lex do the pronunciations, the foreign language pronunciations for the day. He was a professor of classics at the Sorbonne in Paris, the top university, actually in the 1860s, so actually right around after the US Civil War. And he was a savant of a particular kind, which is he, and you can see this in the book is he had apparently read, and sort of absorbed and memorized every possible scrap of Greek and Roman literature. And so is like a walking index on basically everything we know about Greek and Roman culture, and that’s significant. The reason this matters is because basically none of that has changed. And so he had access to the exact same written materials that we have access to, and so we’ve learned nothing.
So what that book does, it’s actually quite a striking book. So that book is written by this guy as a [inaudible 00:11:02] Let Lex do the pronunciations, the foreign language pronunciations for the day. He was a professor of classics at the Sorbonne in Paris, the top university, actually in the 1860s, so actually right around after the US Civil War. And he was a savant of a particular kind, which is he, and you can see this in the book is he had apparently read, and sort of absorbed and memorized every possible scrap of Greek and Roman literature. And so is like a walking index on basically everything we know about Greek and Roman culture, and that’s significant. The reason this matters is because basically none of that has changed. And so he had access to the exact same written materials that we have access to, and so we’ve learned nothing.
And then specifically what he did is he talked about the Greeks and the Romans, but specifically what he did is he went back further. He reconstructed the people who came before the Greeks and the Romans and what their life and society was like. And these were the people who were now known as the Indo-Europeans. And you may have heard of these, these are the people who came down from the steppes. And so they came out of what’s now Eastern Europe around sort of the outskirts of what’s now Russia. And then they sort of swept through Europe. They ultimately took over all of Europe, by the way, almost many of the ethnicities in the Americas, the hundreds of years that follow are Indo-European. And so they were basically this warrior, basically class that came down and swept through and essentially populated much of the world. And there’s a whole interesting saga there. And then from there came basically what we know as the Greeks and the Romans were kind of evolutions off of that.
And so what he reconstructs, what life was like, at least in the West for people in their kind of original social state. And the significance of that is the original social state is living in the state of the absolute imperative for survival with absolutely no technology. No modern systems, no nothing. You’ve got the clothes on your back, you’ve got whatever you can build with your bare hands. This predates basically all concepts of technology as we understand them today. And so these are people under maximum levels of physical survival pressure. And so what social patterns did they evolve to be able to do that? And the social pattern basically was as follows, is a three-part social structure, family, tribe and city, and zero concept of individual rights and essentially no concept of individualism. And so you were not an individual. You were a member of your family, and then a set of families would aggregate into a tribe and then a set of tribes would aggregate into a city.
And then the morality was completely … It was actually what Nietzsche talks about. The morality was entirely master morality, not slave morality. And so in their morality, anything that was strong was good, and anything that was weak was bad. And it’s very clear why that is. It is because strong equals good equals survive. Weak equals bad equals die. And that led to what became known later as the master-slave dialectic, which is, is it more important for you to live on your feet as a master even at the risk of dying? Or are you willing to live as a slave on your knees in order to not die? And this is sort of the derivation of that moral framework. Christianity later inverted that moral framework. But the original framework lasted for many, many thousands of years.
No concept of individualism. The head of the family had total life and death control over the family, the head of the tribe, same thing, head of the city, same thing. And then you were morally obligated to kill members of the other cities on contact. You were morally required to. If you didn’t do it, you were a bad person.
And then the form of the society was basically maximum fascism combined with maximum communism. And so it was maximum fascism in the form of this absolute top-down control where the head of the family tribe or city could kill other members of the community at any time with no repercussions at all. So maximum hierarchy, but combined with maximum communism, which is no market economy and so everything gets shared. And sort of the point of being in one of these collectives is that it’s a collective and people are sharing, and of course that limited how big they could get because the problem with communism is it doesn’t scale. It works at the level of a family. It’s much harder to make it work at the level of a country. Impossible. Maximum fascism, maximum communism.
And then it was all intricately tied into their religion. And their religion was in two parts. It was veneration of ancestors and it was veneration of nature. And the veneration of ancestors is extremely important because it was basically the ancestors were the people who got you to where you were. The ancestors were the people who had everything to teach you. And then it was veneration of nature because of course, nature is the thing that’s trying to kill you. And then you had your ancestor, every family, tribe or city had their ancestor gods and then they had their nature gods.
So fast-forward to today, we live in a world that is radically different, and the book takes you through what happened from that through the Greeks and Romans through to Christianity. But it’s very helpful to kind of think in these terms because the conventional view of the progress through time is that we are … The cliche is the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice or so-called wig history, which is that the arc of progress is positive. And so what you hear all the time, what you’re taught in school and everything is every year that goes by, we get better and better and more and more moral and more and more pure and a better version of ourselves. Our Indo-European ancestors would say, ” Oh no, you people have fallen to shit. You people took all of the principles of basically your civilization and you have diluted them down to the point where they barely even matter and you’re having children out of a wedlock and you regularly encounter people of other cities and you don’t try to kill them.” And how crazy is that?
And they would basically consider us to be living like an incredibly diluted version of this sort of highly religious, highly cult-like, highly organized, highly fascist, communist society. I can’t resist noting that as a consequence of basically going through all the transitions we’ve been through going all the way through Christianity coming out the other end of Christianity, Nietzsche declares God is dead. We’re in a secular society that still has tinges of Christianity, but largely prides itself on no longer being religious in that way. We being the sort of most fully evolved, modern secular experts, scientists and so forth have basically re-evolved or fallen back on the exact same religious structure that the Indo-Europeans had, specifically ancestor worship, which is identity politics and nature worship, which is environmentalism. And so we have actually worked our way all the way back to their cult religions without realizing it. And it just goes to show that in some ways we have fallen far from the family tree, but in some cases we’re exactly the same.
Lex Fridman
You kind of described this progressive idea of wokeism and so on as worshiping ancestors.
You kind of described this progressive idea of wokeism and so on as worshiping ancestors.
Marc Andreessen
Identity politics is worshiping ancestors. It’s tagging newborn infants with either benefits or responsibilities or levels of condemnation based on who their ancestors were. The Indo-Europeans would’ve recognized it on sight. We somehow think it’s super socially progressive.
Identity politics is worshiping ancestors. It’s tagging newborn infants with either benefits or responsibilities or levels of condemnation based on who their ancestors were. The Indo-Europeans would’ve recognized it on sight. We somehow think it’s super socially progressive.
Lex Fridman
And it is not.
And it is not.
Marc Andreessen
I mean, I would say obviously not. Get nuanced which is where I think you’re headed, which is, is the idea that you can completely reinvent society every and have no regard whatsoever for what came before you? That seems like a really bad idea. That’s like the Cambodians with Year Zero under Pol Pot and death follows. Obviously the Soviets tried that. The utopian fantasists who think that they can just rip up everything that came before and create something new in the human condition and human society have a very bad history of causing enormous destruction. So on the one hand, it’s like, okay, there is a deeply important role for tradition.
I mean, I would say obviously not. Get nuanced which is where I think you’re headed, which is, is the idea that you can completely reinvent society every and have no regard whatsoever for what came before you? That seems like a really bad idea. That’s like the Cambodians with Year Zero under Pol Pot and death follows. Obviously the Soviets tried that. The utopian fantasists who think that they can just rip up everything that came before and create something new in the human condition and human society have a very bad history of causing enormous destruction. So on the one hand, it’s like, okay, there is a deeply important role for tradition.
And the way I think about that is the process of evolutionary learning, which is what tradition ought to be, is the distilled wisdom of all. And this is what Indo-Europeans thought about. It should be the distilled wisdom of everybody who came before you. All those important and powerful lessons learned. And that’s why I think it’s fascinating to go back and study how these people lived is because part of the history and part of the learning that got us to where we’re today.
Having said that, there are many cultures around the world that are mired in tradition to the point of not being able to progress. And in fact, you might even say globally, that’s the default human condition, which is a lot of people are in societies in which there’s absolute seniority by age, kids are completely … In the US, for some reason we decided kids are in charge of everything and they’re the trendsetters and they’re allowed to set all the agendas and set all the politics and set all the culture and maybe that’s a little bit crazy. But in a lot of other cultures, kids have no voice at all, no role at all. The old people who are in charge of everything, they’re gerontocracies, and it’s all a bunch of 80 year olds running everything, which by the way, we have a little bit of that too.
And so what I would say is there’s a real downside. Full traditionalism is communitarianism, it’s ethnic particularism, it’s ethnic chauvinism, it’s this incredible level of resistance to change. It just doesn’t get you anywhere. It may be good and fine at the level of an individual tribe, but as a society living in the modern world, you can’t evolve, you can’t advance, you can’t participate in all the good things that have happened. And so I think probably this is one of those things where extremists on either side is probably a bad idea, but this needs to be approached in a sophisticated and nuanced way.
Trump in 2025
Lex Fridman
So the beautiful picture you painted of the roaring 20s, how can the Trump administration play a part in making that future happen?
So the beautiful picture you painted of the roaring 20s, how can the Trump administration play a part in making that future happen?
Marc Andreessen
So look, a big part of this is getting the government boot off the neck of the American economy, the American technology industry, the American people. And again, this is a replay of what happened in the 60s and 70s, which is for what started out looking like, I’m sure good and virtuous purposes, we ended up both then and now with this, what I describe as sort of a form of soft authoritarianism. The good news is it’s not like a military dictatorship. It’s not like you get thrown into Lubyanka. For the most part, [inaudible 00:20:28] not coming at four in the morning. You’re not getting dragged off to a cell. So it’s not hard authoritarianism, but it is soft authoritarianism. And so it’s this incredible suppressive blanket of regulation rules, this concept of a vetocracy. What’s required to get anything done? You need to get 40 people to sign off on anything, any one of them can veto it. There’s a lot of [inaudible 00:20:47] political system works.
So look, a big part of this is getting the government boot off the neck of the American economy, the American technology industry, the American people. And again, this is a replay of what happened in the 60s and 70s, which is for what started out looking like, I’m sure good and virtuous purposes, we ended up both then and now with this, what I describe as sort of a form of soft authoritarianism. The good news is it’s not like a military dictatorship. It’s not like you get thrown into Lubyanka. For the most part, [inaudible 00:20:28] not coming at four in the morning. You’re not getting dragged off to a cell. So it’s not hard authoritarianism, but it is soft authoritarianism. And so it’s this incredible suppressive blanket of regulation rules, this concept of a vetocracy. What’s required to get anything done? You need to get 40 people to sign off on anything, any one of them can veto it. There’s a lot of [inaudible 00:20:47] political system works.
And then just this general idea of progress is bad, and technology is bad, and capitalism is bad, and building businesses is bad and success is bad. Tall poppy syndrome, basically, anybody who sticks their head up deserves to get it chopped off. Anybody who’s wrong about anything deserves to get condemned forever. Just this very kind of grinding repression. And then coupled with specific government actions such as censorship regimes and debanking and Draconian, deliberately kneecapping critical American industries, and then congratulating yourselves on the back for doing it or having these horrible social policies, like let’s let all the criminals out of jail and see what happens. And so we’ve just been through this period, I call it a demoralization campaign. We’ve just been through this period, whether it started that way or not, it ended up basically being this comprehensive message that says, “You’re terrible and if you try to do anything, you’re terrible and fuck you.” And the Biden administration reached the full pinnacle of that in our time. They got really bad on many fronts at the same time. And so just relieving that and getting back to a reasonably optimistic, constructive, pro-growth frame of mind, there’s so much pent-up energy and potentially in the American system, that alone is going to, I think cause growth and spirit to take off. And then there’s a lot of things proactively that could be done.
Lex Fridman
So how do you relieve that? To what degree has the thing you describe ideologically permeated government and permeated big companies?
So how do you relieve that? To what degree has the thing you describe ideologically permeated government and permeated big companies?
Marc Andreessen
Disclaimer at first, which is I don’t want to predict anything on any of this stuff because I’ve learned the hard way that I can’t predict politics or Washington at all. But I would just say that the plans and intentions are clear and the staffing supports it, and all the conversations are consistent with the due administration and that they plan to take very rapid action on a lot of these fronts very quickly. They’re going to do as much as they can through executive orders, and then they’re going to do legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. And so they’re going to move, I think, quickly on a whole bunch of stuff. You can already feel, I think a shift in the national spirit, or at least, let’s put it this way, I feel it for sure in Silicon Valley. I mean, we just saw a great example of this with what Mark Zuckerberg is doing, and obviously I’m involved with his company, but we just saw it kind of in public, the scope and speed of the changes are reflective of a lot of these shifts.
Disclaimer at first, which is I don’t want to predict anything on any of this stuff because I’ve learned the hard way that I can’t predict politics or Washington at all. But I would just say that the plans and intentions are clear and the staffing supports it, and all the conversations are consistent with the due administration and that they plan to take very rapid action on a lot of these fronts very quickly. They’re going to do as much as they can through executive orders, and then they’re going to do legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. And so they’re going to move, I think, quickly on a whole bunch of stuff. You can already feel, I think a shift in the national spirit, or at least, let’s put it this way, I feel it for sure in Silicon Valley. I mean, we just saw a great example of this with what Mark Zuckerberg is doing, and obviously I’m involved with his company, but we just saw it kind of in public, the scope and speed of the changes are reflective of a lot of these shifts.
But I would say that same conversation, those same kinds of things are happening throughout the industry. And so the tech industry itself, whether people were pro-Trump or anti-Trump, there’s just a giant vibe shift, mood shift that’s kicked in already. And then I was with a group of Hollywood people about two weeks ago, and they were still people who at least vocally were still very anti-Trump, but I said, “Has anything changed since November 6th?” And they immediately said, “Oh, it’s completely different. It feels like the ice has thawed. Woke is over.” They said that all kinds of projects are going to be able to get made now they couldn’t before, that Hollywood’s going to start making comedies again. It is just like an incredible immediate environmental change. And as I talk to people, certainly throughout the economy, people who run businesses, I hear that all the time, which is just this last 10 years of misery is just over.
I mean, the one that I’m watching that’s really funny. I mean, Facebook’s getting a lot, Meta’s getting a lot of attention, but the other funny one is BlackRock, which I don’t know him, but I’ve watched for a long time. And so Larry Fink, who’s the CEO of BlackRock, was first in as a major investment CEO on every dumb social trend and rule set every … I’m going for it. Every retarded thing you can imagine, every ESG and every possible … Saddling companies with every aspect of just these crazed ideological positions. And he was coming in, he literally had aggregated together trillions of dollars of shareholdings that were his customer’s rights, and he seized their voting control of their shares and was using it to force all these companies to do all of this crazy ideological stuff. And he was like the Typhoid Mary of all this stuff in corporate America. And he in the last year has been backpedaling from that stuff as fast as he possibly can.
And just an example, last week, he pulled out of the whatever the Corporate Net-Zero Alliance, he pulled out of the crazy energy stuff. And so he’s backing away as fast as he can. Remember, the Richard Pryor backwards walk? Richard Pryor had this way where he could back out of a room while looking like he was walking forward.
And so even there doing that and just the whole thing. I mean, if you saw the court recently ruled that NASDAQ had these crazy board of directors composition rules. One of the funniest moments of my life is when my friend Peter Thiel and I were on the Meta board and these NASDAQ rules came down, mandated diversity on corporate boards. And so we sat around the table and had to figure out which of us counted as diverse. And the very professional attorneys at Meta explained with 100% complete straight face that Peter Thiel counts as diverse by virtue of being LGBT. And this is a guy who literally wrote a book called The Diversity Myth. He literally looked like he’d swallowed a live goldfish, and this was imposed. I mean, this was so incredibly offensive to him that it was just absolutely appalling and I felt terrible for him. But the look in his face was very funny.
And it was imposed by NASDAQ, your stock exchange imposing this stuff on you, and then the court, whatever, the Court of Appeals just nuked that. So these things basically are being ripped down one by one. And what’s on the other side of it is basically finally being able to get back to everything that everybody always wanted to do, which is run their companies, have great products, have happy customers, succeed, achieve, outperform, and work with the best and the brightest and not be made to feel bad about it. And I think that’s happening in many areas of American society.
Lex Fridman
It’s great to hear that Peter Thiel is fundamentally a diversity hire.
It’s great to hear that Peter Thiel is fundamentally a diversity hire.
Marc Andreessen
Well, there was a moment. So Peter, of course, is publicly gay, has been for a long time, but there are other men on the board, and we’re sitting there and we’re all looking at it, and we’re like, all right, okay, LGBT, and we keep coming back to the B, and it’s like all I’m willing to do a lot for this company, but …
Well, there was a moment. So Peter, of course, is publicly gay, has been for a long time, but there are other men on the board, and we’re sitting there and we’re all looking at it, and we’re like, all right, okay, LGBT, and we keep coming back to the B, and it’s like all I’m willing to do a lot for this company, but …
Lex Fridman
It’s all about sacrifice for diversity.
It’s all about sacrifice for diversity.
Marc Andreessen
Well, yeah. And then it’s like, okay, is there a test?
Well, yeah. And then it’s like, okay, is there a test?
Lex Fridman
Oh yeah, exactly. How do you prove it?
Oh yeah, exactly. How do you prove it?
Marc Andreessen
The questions that got asked.
The questions that got asked.
Lex Fridman
What are you willing to do for the greater good?
What are you willing to do for the greater good?
Marc Andreessen
I’ve become very good at asking lawyers completely absurd questions with a totally straight face.
I’ve become very good at asking lawyers completely absurd questions with a totally straight face.
Lex Fridman
And do they answer with a straight face [inaudible 00:27:29]?
And do they answer with a straight face [inaudible 00:27:29]?
Marc Andreessen
Sometimes. I think in fairness, they have trouble telling when I’m joking.
Sometimes. I think in fairness, they have trouble telling when I’m joking.
TDS in tech
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned the Hollywood folks, maybe people in Silicon Valley and the vibe shift. Maybe you can speak to preference falsification. What do they actually believe? How many of them actually hate Trump? What percent of them are feeling this vibe shift and are interested in creating the roaring 20s in the way they’ve described?
So you mentioned the Hollywood folks, maybe people in Silicon Valley and the vibe shift. Maybe you can speak to preference falsification. What do they actually believe? How many of them actually hate Trump? What percent of them are feeling this vibe shift and are interested in creating the roaring 20s in the way they’ve described?
Marc Andreessen
So first we should maybe talk population. So there’s all of Silicon Valley, and the way to just measure that is just look at voting records and what that shows consistently is Silicon Valley is just, at least historically, my entire time there has been overwhelmingly majority just straight up Democrat. The other way to look at that is political donation records. And again, the political donations in the Valley range from 90 to 99% to 1 side. And so I just bring it up because we’ll see what happens with the voting and with donations going forward.
So first we should maybe talk population. So there’s all of Silicon Valley, and the way to just measure that is just look at voting records and what that shows consistently is Silicon Valley is just, at least historically, my entire time there has been overwhelmingly majority just straight up Democrat. The other way to look at that is political donation records. And again, the political donations in the Valley range from 90 to 99% to 1 side. And so I just bring it up because we’ll see what happens with the voting and with donations going forward.
We can maybe talk about the fire later, but I can tell you there is a very big question of what’s happening in Los Angeles right now. I don’t want to get into the fire, but it’s catastrophic. And there was already a rightward shift in the big cities in California, and I think a lot of people in LA are really thinking about things right now as they’re trying to literally save their houses and save their families. But even in San Francisco, there was a big shift to the right in the voting in ’24. So we’ll see where that goes, but you observe that by just looking at the numbers over time.
The part that I’m more focused on is, and I don’t know how to exactly describe this, but it’s like the top 1,000 or the top 10,000 people. I don’t have a list, but it’s all the top founders, top CEOs, top executives, top engineers, top VCs, and then into the ranks, the people who kind of built and run the companies. And I don’t have numbers, but I have a much more tactile feel for what’s happening. So the big thing I have now come to believe is that the idea that people have beliefs is mostly wrong. I think that most people just go along, and I think even most high status people just go along. And I think maybe the most high status people are the most prone to just go along because they’re the most focused on status. And the way I would describe that is one of the great forbidden philosophers of our time is the Unabomber, Ted Kaczynski. And amidst his madness, he had this extremely interesting articulation. He was an insane lunatic murderer, but he was also a Harvard super genius. Not that those are in conflict.
Lex Fridman
Shots fired man.
Shots fired man.
Marc Andreessen
But he was a very bright guy, and he did this whole thing where he talked about, basically he was very right-wing and talked about leftism a lot. And he had this great concept that’s just stuck in my mind ever since I read it, which is he had this concept just called over-socialization. And so most people are socialized. We live in a society, most people learn how to be part of a society. They give some deference to the society. There’s something about modern Western elites where they’re over-socialized and they’re just overly oriented towards what other people like themselves think and believe. And you can get a real sense of that if you have a little bit of an outside perspective, which I just do, I think as a consequence of where I grew up.
But he was a very bright guy, and he did this whole thing where he talked about, basically he was very right-wing and talked about leftism a lot. And he had this great concept that’s just stuck in my mind ever since I read it, which is he had this concept just called over-socialization. And so most people are socialized. We live in a society, most people learn how to be part of a society. They give some deference to the society. There’s something about modern Western elites where they’re over-socialized and they’re just overly oriented towards what other people like themselves think and believe. And you can get a real sense of that if you have a little bit of an outside perspective, which I just do, I think as a consequence of where I grew up.
Even before I had the views that I have today, there was always just this weird thing where it’s like, why does every dinner party have the exact same conversation? Why does everybody agree on every single issue? Why is that agreement precisely what was in the New York Times today? Why are these positions not the same as they were five years ago? But why does everybody snap into agreement every step of the way? And that was true when I came to Silicon Valley, and it’s just as true today 30 years later. And so I think most people are just literally, I think they’re taking their cues from, it’s some combination of the press, the universities, the big foundations. So it’s basically, it’s like The New York Times, Harvard, the Ford Foundation, and I don’t know, a few CEOs and a few public figures and maybe the President if your party is in power. And whatever that is, everybody who’s sort of good and proper and elite and good standing and in charge of things, and a sort of correct member of, let’s call it coastal American society, everybody just believes those things.
And then the two interesting things about that is, number one, there’s no divergence among the organs of power. So Harvard and Yale believed the exact same thing. The New York Times and The Washington Post believe the exact same thing. The Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation believe the exact same thing. Google and whatever, Microsoft believe the exact same thing. But those things change over time, but there’s never conflict in the moment. And so The New York Times and The Washington Post agreed on exactly everything in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, despite the fact that the specifics changed radically. The lockstep was what mattered. And so I think basically we in the Valley we’re on the tail end of that, in the same way Hollywood’s on the tail end of that, in the same way New York’s on the tail end of that, the same way the media’s on the tail end of that. It’s like some sort of collective hive mind thing.
And I just go through that to say, I don’t think most people in my orbit, or let’s say the top 10,000 people in the Valley or the top 10,000 people in LA, I don’t think they’re sitting there thinking basically, I have rock … I mean, they probably think they have rocks solid beliefs, but they don’t actually have some inner core of rock solid beliefs. And then they kind of watch reality change around them and try to figure out how to keep their beliefs correct. I don’t think that’s what happens. I think what happens is they conform to the belief system around them, and I think most of the time they’re not even aware that they’re basically part of a herd.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible that the surface chatter …
Is it possible that the surface chatter …
Marc Andreessen
That they’re basically part of a herd.
That they’re basically part of a herd.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible that the surface chatter of dinner parties, underneath that there is a turmoil of ideas and thoughts and beliefs that’s going on, but you’re just talking to people really close to you or in your own mind, and the socialization happens at the dinner parties? When you go outside the inner circle of one, two, three, four people who you really trust, then you start to conform. But inside there, inside the mind, there is an actual belief or a struggle, attention within New York Times or with the listener. For the listener, there’s a slow smile that overtook Mark Andreessen’s face.
Is it possible that the surface chatter of dinner parties, underneath that there is a turmoil of ideas and thoughts and beliefs that’s going on, but you’re just talking to people really close to you or in your own mind, and the socialization happens at the dinner parties? When you go outside the inner circle of one, two, three, four people who you really trust, then you start to conform. But inside there, inside the mind, there is an actual belief or a struggle, attention within New York Times or with the listener. For the listener, there’s a slow smile that overtook Mark Andreessen’s face.
Marc Andreessen
So look, I’ll just tell you what I think, which is at the dinner parties and at the conferences, no, there’s none of that. What there is that all of the heretical conversations, anything that challenges the status quo, any heretical ideas and any new idea is a heretical idea, any deviation is either discussed one-on-one, face-to-face, it’s like a whisper network or it’s like a real life social network. There’s a secret handshake. Which is like, okay, you meet somebody and each other a little bit, but not well, and you’re both trying to figure out if you can talk to the other person openly or whether you have to be fully conformist. It’s a joke.
So look, I’ll just tell you what I think, which is at the dinner parties and at the conferences, no, there’s none of that. What there is that all of the heretical conversations, anything that challenges the status quo, any heretical ideas and any new idea is a heretical idea, any deviation is either discussed one-on-one, face-to-face, it’s like a whisper network or it’s like a real life social network. There’s a secret handshake. Which is like, okay, you meet somebody and each other a little bit, but not well, and you’re both trying to figure out if you can talk to the other person openly or whether you have to be fully conformist. It’s a joke.
Lex Fridman
Well, yeah, humor 100%.
Well, yeah, humor 100%.
Marc Andreessen
Somebody cracks a joke, right? Somebody cracks a joke. If the other person laughs, the conversation is on.
Somebody cracks a joke, right? Somebody cracks a joke. If the other person laughs, the conversation is on.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
If the other person doesn’t laugh, back slowly away from the scene, I didn’t mean anything by it. And then by the way, it doesn’t have to be a super offensive joke. It just has to be a joke that’s just up against the edge of one of the, use the Sam Bankman-Fried term, one of the chivalrous. It has to be up against one of the things, one of the things that you’re absolutely required to believe to be the dinner parties. And then at that point, what happens is have a peer-to-peer network. You have a one-to-one connection with somebody, then you have your little conspiracy of thought criminality, and then you’ve probably been through this, you have your network of thought criminals, and then they have their network of thought criminals, and then you have this delicate mating dance as to whether you should bring the thought criminals together.
If the other person doesn’t laugh, back slowly away from the scene, I didn’t mean anything by it. And then by the way, it doesn’t have to be a super offensive joke. It just has to be a joke that’s just up against the edge of one of the, use the Sam Bankman-Fried term, one of the chivalrous. It has to be up against one of the things, one of the things that you’re absolutely required to believe to be the dinner parties. And then at that point, what happens is have a peer-to-peer network. You have a one-to-one connection with somebody, then you have your little conspiracy of thought criminality, and then you’ve probably been through this, you have your network of thought criminals, and then they have their network of thought criminals, and then you have this delicate mating dance as to whether you should bring the thought criminals together.
Lex Fridman
And the fundamental mechanism of the dance is humor.
And the fundamental mechanism of the dance is humor.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, it’s humor. Well, of course.
Yeah, it’s humor. Well, of course.
Lex Fridman
Memes. Yeah.
Memes. Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
Well, for two reasons. Number one, humor is a way to have deniability, right? Humor is a way to discuss serious things without having deniability. Oh, I’m sorry. It was just a joke. So that’s part of it, which is one of the reasons why comedians can get away with saying things the rest of us can’t, they can always fall back on, oh yeah, I was just going for the laugh. But the other key thing about humor is that laughter is involuntary. You either laugh or you don’t. And it’s not a conscious decision whether you’re going to laugh. And everybody can tell when somebody’s fake laughing and every professional comedian knows this. The laughter is the clue that you’re onto something truthful.
Well, for two reasons. Number one, humor is a way to have deniability, right? Humor is a way to discuss serious things without having deniability. Oh, I’m sorry. It was just a joke. So that’s part of it, which is one of the reasons why comedians can get away with saying things the rest of us can’t, they can always fall back on, oh yeah, I was just going for the laugh. But the other key thing about humor is that laughter is involuntary. You either laugh or you don’t. And it’s not a conscious decision whether you’re going to laugh. And everybody can tell when somebody’s fake laughing and every professional comedian knows this. The laughter is the clue that you’re onto something truthful.
People don’t laugh at made-up bullshit stories. They laugh because you’re revealing something that they either have not been allowed to think about or have not been allowed to talk about or is off limits. And all of a sudden it’s like the ice breaks and it’s like, oh yeah, that’s the thing. And it’s funny and I laugh, and then of course, this is why of course live comedy is so powerful is because you’re all doing that at the same time, so you start to have the safety of numbers. It’s no surprise to me, for example, Joe has been as successful as he has because they have this hack that the rest of us who are not professional comedians don’t have, but you have your in-person version of it, and then you’ve got the question of whether you can join the networks together.
And then you’ve probably been to this, is then at some point there’s like the Alt dinner party, the [inaudible 00:36:23] dinner party, and you get six or eight people together and you join the networks. And those are the happiest, at least in the last decade, those are the happiest moments of everybody’s lives. Everybody’s just ecstatic because they’re like, I don’t have to worry about getting yelled at and shamed for every third sentence that comes out of my mouth, and we can actually talk about real things. So that’s the live version of it. And then of course, the other side of it’s the group chat phenomenon. And then basically the same thing played out until Elon bought X and until Substack took off, which were really the two big breakthroughs in free speech online, the same dynamic played out online, which is you had absolute conformity on the social networks, literally enforced by the social networks themselves through censorship, and then also through cancellation campaigns and mobbing and shaming.
But then group chats grew up to be the equivalent of Samizdat. Anybody who grew up in the Soviet Union under communism, note, they had the hard version of this. It’s like, how do you know who you could talk to? And then how do you distribute information? And again, that was the hard authoritarian version of this. And then we’ve been living through this weird mutant soft authoritarian version, but with some of the same patterns.
Lex Fridman
And WhatsApp allows you to scale and make it more efficient to build on these groups of heretical ideas bonded by humor.
And WhatsApp allows you to scale and make it more efficient to build on these groups of heretical ideas bonded by humor.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, exactly. Well, and this is the thing, and well, this is the running kind of thing about group chats. It’s not even a joke. It’s true. If you’ve noticed this principle of group chats, every group chat ends up being about memes and humor. And the game of group chat is to get as close to the line of being actually objectionable as you can get without actually tripping it. And literally every group chat that I have been in for the last decade, even if it starts some other direction, what ends up happening is it becomes the absolute comedy fest where, butt they walk right up the line and they’re constantly testing. And every once in a while somebody will trip the line and people will freak out. And it’s like, oh, too soon. Okay, we got to wait until next year to talk about that. They walk it back.
Yeah, exactly. Well, and this is the thing, and well, this is the running kind of thing about group chats. It’s not even a joke. It’s true. If you’ve noticed this principle of group chats, every group chat ends up being about memes and humor. And the game of group chat is to get as close to the line of being actually objectionable as you can get without actually tripping it. And literally every group chat that I have been in for the last decade, even if it starts some other direction, what ends up happening is it becomes the absolute comedy fest where, butt they walk right up the line and they’re constantly testing. And every once in a while somebody will trip the line and people will freak out. And it’s like, oh, too soon. Okay, we got to wait until next year to talk about that. They walk it back.
And so it’s that same thing. And then group chats is a technological phenomenon. It was amazing to see. Number one, it was obviously the rise of smartphones, then it was the rise of the new messaging services, then it was the rise specifically of I would say combination of WhatsApp and Signal. And the reason for that is those were the two big systems that did the full encryption, so you actually felt safe. And then the real breakthrough I think was disappearing messages, which hit Signal probably four or five years ago and hit WhatsApp three or four years ago. And then the combination of encryption and disappearing messages I think really unleashed it. Well, then there’s the fight over the length of disappearing messages. And so it’s like I often get behind on my thing, so I set to seven day disappearing messages and my friends who are like, no, that’s way too much risk. It’s got to be a day. And then every once in a while somebody will set to five minutes before they send something particularly inflammatory.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, 100%. One of the things that bothers me about WhatsApp, the choice is between 24 hours and seven days, one day or seven days. And I have to have an existential crisis deciding whether I can last for seven days with what I’m about to say.
Yeah, 100%. One of the things that bothers me about WhatsApp, the choice is between 24 hours and seven days, one day or seven days. And I have to have an existential crisis deciding whether I can last for seven days with what I’m about to say.
Marc Andreessen
Exactly. Now, of course, what’s happening right now is the big thaw. The vibe shift. So what’s happening on the other side of the election is Elon on Twitter two years ago and now Mark with Facebook and Instagram. And by the way, with the continued growth of Substack and with other new platforms that are emerging, I think it may be, I don’t know that everything just shifts back into public, but a tremendous amount of the verboten conversations can now shift back into public view. And this is one of those things, quite frankly, even if I was opposed to what people are saying, and I’m sure I am in some cases, I would argue still net better for society that those things happen in public instead of private. Does you want to know? And then look, it’s just I think, clearly much healthier to live in a society in which people are not literally scared of what they’re saying.
Exactly. Now, of course, what’s happening right now is the big thaw. The vibe shift. So what’s happening on the other side of the election is Elon on Twitter two years ago and now Mark with Facebook and Instagram. And by the way, with the continued growth of Substack and with other new platforms that are emerging, I think it may be, I don’t know that everything just shifts back into public, but a tremendous amount of the verboten conversations can now shift back into public view. And this is one of those things, quite frankly, even if I was opposed to what people are saying, and I’m sure I am in some cases, I would argue still net better for society that those things happen in public instead of private. Does you want to know? And then look, it’s just I think, clearly much healthier to live in a society in which people are not literally scared of what they’re saying.
Preference falsification
Lex Fridman
I mean, to push back, to come back to this idea that we’re talking about, I do believe that people have beliefs and thoughts that are heretical, like a lot of people. I wonder what fraction of people have that? To me, the preference falsification is really interesting. What is the landscape of ideas that human civilization has in private as compared to what’s out in public? Because the dynamical system that is the difference between those two is fascinating. Throughout history the fall of communism and multiple regimes throughout Europe is really interesting. Everybody was following the line until not. But for sure, privately, there was a huge number of boiling conversations happening, where this is the bureaucracy of communism, the corruption of communism, all of that was really bothering people more and more and more and more. And all of a sudden there’s a trigger that allows the vibe shift to happen.
I mean, to push back, to come back to this idea that we’re talking about, I do believe that people have beliefs and thoughts that are heretical, like a lot of people. I wonder what fraction of people have that? To me, the preference falsification is really interesting. What is the landscape of ideas that human civilization has in private as compared to what’s out in public? Because the dynamical system that is the difference between those two is fascinating. Throughout history the fall of communism and multiple regimes throughout Europe is really interesting. Everybody was following the line until not. But for sure, privately, there was a huge number of boiling conversations happening, where this is the bureaucracy of communism, the corruption of communism, all of that was really bothering people more and more and more and more. And all of a sudden there’s a trigger that allows the vibe shift to happen.
To me, the interesting question here is, what is the landscape of private thoughts and ideas and conversations that are happening under the surface of Americans? Especially, my question is how much dormant energy is there for this roaring twenties? What people are like, no more bullshit, let’s get done.
Marc Andreessen
So we’ll go through the theory of preference falsification just to-
So we’ll go through the theory of preference falsification just to-
Lex Fridman
Yes. By the way, amazing. The books on this is fascinating.
Yes. By the way, amazing. The books on this is fascinating.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, yeah. So this is one of the all time great books. Incredible. About 20, 30-year-old book, but it’s completely modern and current in what it talks about as well as very deeply historically informed. So it’s called Private Truths, Public Lies, and it’s written by a social science professor named Timur Kuran, at I think Duke, and his definitive work on this. And so he has this concept, he calls Preference Falsification. And so preference falsification is two things, and you get it from the title of the book, Private Truths, Public Lies. So preference falsification is when you believe something and you can’t say it, or, and this is very important, you don’t believe something and you must say it. And the commonality there is in both cases, you’re lying. You believe something internally, and then you’re lying about it in public.
Yeah, yeah. So this is one of the all time great books. Incredible. About 20, 30-year-old book, but it’s completely modern and current in what it talks about as well as very deeply historically informed. So it’s called Private Truths, Public Lies, and it’s written by a social science professor named Timur Kuran, at I think Duke, and his definitive work on this. And so he has this concept, he calls Preference Falsification. And so preference falsification is two things, and you get it from the title of the book, Private Truths, Public Lies. So preference falsification is when you believe something and you can’t say it, or, and this is very important, you don’t believe something and you must say it. And the commonality there is in both cases, you’re lying. You believe something internally, and then you’re lying about it in public.
And there’s the two classic forms of it. For example, there’s the, I believe communism is rotten, but I can’t say it version of it. But then there’s also the famous parable of the real life example, but the thing that Vaclav Havel talks about in the other good book on this topic, which is The Power of the Powerless, who is an anti-communist resistance fighter who ultimately became the president of Czechoslovakia after the fall of the wall. But he wrote this book and he describes the other side of this, which is workers of the world unite. And so he describes what he calls the Parable of the Greengrocer, which is you’re a greengrocer in Prague in 1985, and for the last 50 years, it’s been absolutely mandatory to have a sign in the window of your store that says Workers of the World Unite.
And it’s 1985, it is crystal clear that the workers of the world are not going to unite. Of all the things that could happen in the world, that is not going to happen. The Commies have been at that for 70 years, it is not happening. But that slogan had better be in your window every morning because if it’s not in your window every morning, you are not a good communist. The secret police are going to come by and they’re going to get you. And so the first thing you do when you get to the store is you put that slogan in the window and you make sure that it stays in the window all day long. But he says, the thing is, the greengrocer knows the slogan is fake. He knows it’s a lie. Every single person walking past the slogan knows that it’s a lie. Every single person walking past the store knows that the greengrocer is only putting it up there because he has to lie in public. And the greengrocer has to go through the humiliation of knowing that everybody knows that he’s caving into the system and lying in public.
And so it turns into the moralization campaign. In fact, it’s not ideological enforcement anymore because everybody knows it’s fake. The authorities know it’s fake, everybody knows it’s fake. It’s not that they’re enforcing the actual ideology of the workers of the world uniting. It’s that they’re enforcing compliance and compliance with the regime. And you fuck you, you will comply. And so anyway, that’s the other side of that. And of course, we have lived in the last decade through a lot of both of those. I think anybody listening to this could name a series of slogans that we’ve all been forced to chant for the last decade that everybody knows at this point are just simply not true. I’ll let the audience speculate on their own group chats.
Lex Fridman
Send Marc your memes online as well, please.
Send Marc your memes online as well, please.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, yes, exactly. Okay. So anyway, so it’s the two sides of that, right? So it’s Private Truth, Public Lies. So then what preference falsification does is it talks about extending that from the idea of the individual experience in that to the idea of the entire society experiencing that, right? And this gets to your percentages question. Which is like, okay, what happens in a society in which people are forced to lie in public about what they truly believe? What happens number one is that individually they’re lying in public and that’s bad. But the other thing that happens is they no longer have an accurate gauge at all or any way to estimate how many people agree with them. And again, this literally is how you get something like the communist system, which is like, okay, you end up in a situation in which 80 or 90 or 99% of a society can actually all be thinking individually, I really don’t buy this anymore.
Yes, yes, exactly. Okay. So anyway, so it’s the two sides of that, right? So it’s Private Truth, Public Lies. So then what preference falsification does is it talks about extending that from the idea of the individual experience in that to the idea of the entire society experiencing that, right? And this gets to your percentages question. Which is like, okay, what happens in a society in which people are forced to lie in public about what they truly believe? What happens number one is that individually they’re lying in public and that’s bad. But the other thing that happens is they no longer have an accurate gauge at all or any way to estimate how many people agree with them. And again, this literally is how you get something like the communist system, which is like, okay, you end up in a situation in which 80 or 90 or 99% of a society can actually all be thinking individually, I really don’t buy this anymore.
And if anybody would just stand up and say it, I would be willing to go along with it, but I’m not going to be the first one to put my head on the chopping block. But because of the suppression censorship, you have no way of knowing how many of the people agree with you. And if the people agree with you are 10% of the population and you become part of a movement, you’re going to get killed. If 90% of the people agree with you, you’re going to win the revolution. And so the question of what the percentage actually is is a really critical question. And then basically in any sort of authoritarian system, you can’t run a survey to get an accurate result. And so you actually can’t know until you put it to the test. And then what he describes in the book is it’s always put to the test in the same way.
This is exactly what’s happened for the last two years, like 100% of exactly what’s happened. It’s like straight out of this book. Which is somebody, Elon, sticks his hand up and says, the workers of the world are not going to unite. Or the emperor is actually wearing no clothes, that famous parable. So one person stands up and does it, and literally that person is standing there by themselves, and everybody else in the audience is like, Ooh, I wonder what’s going to happen to that guy? But again, nobody knows. Elon doesn’t know, the first guy doesn’t know, other people don’t know which way is this going to go. And it may be that that’s a minority position and that’s the way to get yourself killed. Or it may be that that’s the majority position and you are now the leader of a revolution.
And then basically, of course, what happens is, okay, the first guy does that doesn’t get killed, the second guy does… Well, a lot of the time that guy does get killed, but when the guy doesn’t get killed, then a second guy pops his head up, says the same thing. All right, now you’ve got two. Two leads to four, four leads to eight, eight leads to 16. And then as we saw with the fall of the Berlin Wall, this is what happened in Russia and Eastern Europe in ’89, when it goes, it can go, and then it rips. And then if it turns out that you had a large percentage of the population that actually believed the different thing, it turns out all of a sudden everybody has this giant epiphany that says, oh, I’m actually part of the majority. And at that point, you were on the freight train to revolution, right? It is rolling. Now, the other part of this is the distinction between the role of the elites and the masses.
And here the best book is called the True Believer, which is the Eric Hoffer book. And so the nuance you have to put on this is the elites play a giant role in this because the elites do idea formation and communication, but the elites, by definition are a small minority. And so there’s also this giant role played by the masses, and the masses are not necessarily thinking these things through in the same intellectualized formal way that the elites are, but they are for sure experiencing these things in their daily lives, and they for sure have at least very strong emotional views on them.
And so when you really get the revolution, it’s when you get the elites lined up with, or either the current elites change or the new set of elites, a new set of counter elites, basically come along and say, “No, there’s actually a different and better way to live.” And then the people basically decide to follow the counter elite. So that’s the other dimension to it. And of course, that part is also happening right now. And again, case study one of that would be Elon, and who turns out in truly massive following.
Lex Fridman
And he has done that over and over in different industries, not just saying crazy shit online, but saying crazy shit in the realm of space, in the realm of autonomous driving, in the realm of AI, just over and over and over again. Turns out saying crazy shit is one of the ways to do a revolution and to actually make progress.
And he has done that over and over in different industries, not just saying crazy shit online, but saying crazy shit in the realm of space, in the realm of autonomous driving, in the realm of AI, just over and over and over again. Turns out saying crazy shit is one of the ways to do a revolution and to actually make progress.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. And it’s like, well, but then there’s the test. Is it crazy or is it the truth?
Yeah. And it’s like, well, but then there’s the test. Is it crazy or is it the truth?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
And this is where there are many specific things about Elon’s genius, but one of the really core ones is an absolute dedication to the truth. And so when Elon says something, it sounds like crazy shit, but in his mind it’s true. Now, is he always right? No. Sometimes the rockets crash, sometimes he’s wrong. He’s human, he’s like anybody else. He’s not right all the time. But at least my through line with him both in what he says in public and what he says in private, which by the way are the exact same things. He does not do this. He doesn’t lie in public about what he believes in private, or at least he doesn’t do that anymore. He’s 100% consistent in my experience. By the way, there’s two guys who are 100% consistent like that that I know. Elon and Trump.
And this is where there are many specific things about Elon’s genius, but one of the really core ones is an absolute dedication to the truth. And so when Elon says something, it sounds like crazy shit, but in his mind it’s true. Now, is he always right? No. Sometimes the rockets crash, sometimes he’s wrong. He’s human, he’s like anybody else. He’s not right all the time. But at least my through line with him both in what he says in public and what he says in private, which by the way are the exact same things. He does not do this. He doesn’t lie in public about what he believes in private, or at least he doesn’t do that anymore. He’s 100% consistent in my experience. By the way, there’s two guys who are 100% consistent like that that I know. Elon and Trump.
Whatever you think of them, what they say in private is 100% identical to what they say in public. They’re completely transparent, they’re completely honest in that way. Again, it’s not like they’re perfect people, but they’re honest in that way. And it makes them potentially both as they have been, very powerful leaders of these movements because they’re both willing to stand up and say the thing that if it’s true, it turns out to be the thing in many cases that many or most or almost everyone else actually believes, but nobody was actually willing to say out loud. And so they can actually catalyze these shifts. I think this framework is exactly why Trump took over the Republican Party. I think Trump stood up there on stage with all these other kind of conventional Republicans, and he started saying things out loud that it turned out the base really was they were either already believing or they were prone to believe, and he was the only one who was saying them.
And so again, elite masses, he was the elite, the voters of the masses, and the voters decided, no. No more bushes, we’re going this other direction. That’s the mechanism of social change. What we just described is the actual mechanism of social change. It is fascinating to me that we have been living through exactly this. We’ve been living through everything exactly what Timur Kuran describes, everything that Vaclav Havel described. Black Squares and Instagram, like the whole thing, right? All of it. And we’ve been living through the true believer elites masses thing, with a set of basically incredibly corrupt elites wondering why they don’t have the masses anymore, and a set of new elites that are running away with things.
And so we’re living through this incredible applied case study of these ideas. And if there’s a moral of the story, it is I think fairly obvious, which is it’s a really bad idea for a society to wedge itself into a position in which most people don’t believe the fundamental precepts of what they’re told they have to do to be good people like that. That is just not a good state to be in.
Lex Fridman
So one of the ways to avoid that in the future maybe, is to keep the delta between what’s said in private and what’s said in public small.
So one of the ways to avoid that in the future maybe, is to keep the delta between what’s said in private and what’s said in public small.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. Well, this is sort of the siren song of censorship is we can keep people from saying things, which means we can keep people from thinking things.
Yeah. Well, this is sort of the siren song of censorship is we can keep people from saying things, which means we can keep people from thinking things.
And by the way, that may work for a while. I mean, again, the hard form, Soviet Union, pre photocopiers, there were mimeograph machines that were used to make Samizdat and underground newspapers, which is the mechanism of written communication of radical ideas, radical ideas. Ownership of a mimeograph machine was punishable by death. So that’s the hard version. The soft version is somebody clicks a button in Washington and you were erased from the internet, which good news, you’re still alive. Bad news is, shame about not being able to get a job. Too bad your family now hates you and won’t talk to you, whatever the version of cancellation it’s been. And so does that work? Maybe it works for a while. It worked for the Soviet Union for a while in its way, especially when it was coupled with official state power. But when it unwinds, it can unwind with incredible speed and ferocity. Because to your point, there’s all this bottled up energy.
Now, your question was what are the percentages? What’s the breakdown? And so my rough guess, just based on what I’ve seen in my world, is it’s something like 20, 60, 20. It’s like you’ve got 20% true believers in whatever is the current thing. You got 20% of people who are just true believers of whatever’s in the New York Times, Harvard professors and the Ford Foundation, they’re just… Maybe it’s 10, maybe it’s five, but let’s say generously it’s 20. So 20% kind of full-on revolutionaries. And then you’ve got, let’s call it 20% on the other side that are like, no, I’m not on board with this. This is crazy. I’m not signing up for this. But their view of themselves is they’re in a small minority, and in fact, they start out in a small minority, because what happens is the 60% go with the first 20%, not the second 20%. So you’ve got this large middle of people.
And it’s not that the people in the middle are not smart or anything like that, that they just have normal lives and they’re just trying to get by and they’re just trying to go to work each day and do a good job and be a good person and raise their kids and have a little bit of time to watch the game, and they’re just not engaged in the cut and thrust of political activism or any of this stuff. It’s just not their thing. But that’s where the over socialization comes in. It’s just like, okay, by default, the 60% will go along with the 20% of the radical revolutionaries at least for a while, and then the counter elite is in this other 20%. And over time, they build up a theory and network and ability to resist in a new set of representatives, in a new set of ideas. And then at some point there’s a contest and then, and then the question is, what happens in the middle? What happens in the 60%?
And it is kind of my point. It’s not even really does the 60% change their beliefs as much as it’s like, okay, what is the thing that that 60% now decides to basically fall into step with? And in the valley, that 60% for the last decade decided to be woke and extremely, I would say, on edge on a lot of things. And that 60% is pivoting in real time. They’re just done. They’ve just had it.
Lex Fridman
And I would love to see where that pivot goes because there’s internal battles happening right now.
And I would love to see where that pivot goes because there’s internal battles happening right now.
Marc Andreessen
So this is the other thing. So there’s two forms of things, and Timur has actually talked about this, Professor Kuran has talked about this. So one is he said, this is the kind of unwind where what you’re going to have is you’re now going to have people in the other direction. You’re going to have people who claim that they supported Trump all along, who actually didn’t, right? So it’s going to swing the other way.
So this is the other thing. So there’s two forms of things, and Timur has actually talked about this, Professor Kuran has talked about this. So one is he said, this is the kind of unwind where what you’re going to have is you’re now going to have people in the other direction. You’re going to have people who claim that they supported Trump all along, who actually didn’t, right? So it’s going to swing the other way.
And by the way, Trump’s not the only part of this, but he’s just a convenient shorthand for a lot of this. But whatever it is, you’ll have people who will say, well, I never supported the EI, or I never supported ESG, or I never thought we should have canceled that person, where of course, they were full on a part of the mob at that moment. So anyway, so you’ll have preference falsification happening in the other direction. His prediction, I think, basically is you’ll end up with the same quote, “problem” on the other side. Now, will that happen here? I don’t know. How far is American society willing to go on any of these things? I don’t know. But there is some question there.
And then the other part of it is, okay, now you have this elite that is used to being in power for the last decade. And by the way, many of those people are still in power and they’re in very important positions. And the New York Times is still the New York Times, and Harvard is still Harvard, and those people haven’t changed, like at all. Bureaucrats in the government and senior democratic politicians and so forth. And they’re sitting there right now feeling like reality has just smacked them hard in the face because they lost the election so badly. But they’re now going into, and specifically the Democratic Party, is going into a Civil War. And that form of the Civil War is completely predictable and it’s exactly what’s happening, which is half of them are saying, we need to go back to the center. We need to de-radicalize because we’ve lost the people. We’ve lost the people in the middle, and so we need to go back to the middle in order to be able to get 50% plus one in an election.
And then the other half of them are saying, no, we weren’t true to our principles. We were too weak. We were too soft. We must become more revolutionary. We must double down and we must celebrate murders in the street of health insurance executives. And that right now is a real fight.
Self-censorship
Lex Fridman
If I could tell you a little personal story that breaks my heart a little bit, there’s a professor, a historian, I won’t say who, who I admire deeply, love his work. He’s kind of a heretical thinker. And we were talking about having a podcast, on doing a podcast, and he eventually said that, “You know what, at this time, given your guest list, I just don’t want the headache of being in the faculty meetings in my particular institution.” And I asked, “Who are the particular figures in this guest list?” He said, “Trump.” And the second one, he said, “That you announced your interest to talk to Vladimir Putin.” So I just don’t want the headache. Now, I fully believe it would surprise a lot of people if I said who it is. This is a person who’s not bothered by the guest list. And I should also say that 80 plus percent of the guest list is left wing.
If I could tell you a little personal story that breaks my heart a little bit, there’s a professor, a historian, I won’t say who, who I admire deeply, love his work. He’s kind of a heretical thinker. And we were talking about having a podcast, on doing a podcast, and he eventually said that, “You know what, at this time, given your guest list, I just don’t want the headache of being in the faculty meetings in my particular institution.” And I asked, “Who are the particular figures in this guest list?” He said, “Trump.” And the second one, he said, “That you announced your interest to talk to Vladimir Putin.” So I just don’t want the headache. Now, I fully believe it would surprise a lot of people if I said who it is. This is a person who’s not bothered by the guest list. And I should also say that 80 plus percent of the guest list is left wing.
Nevertheless, he just doesn’t want the headache. And that speaks to the thing that you’ve kind of mentioned, that you just don’t want the headache. You just want to just have a pleasant morning with some coffee and talk to your fellow professors. And I think a lot of people are feeling that in universities and in other contexts, in tech companies. And I wonder if that shifts, how quickly that shifts? And there, the percentages you mentioned, 20, 60, 20 matters, and the contents of the private groups matters, and the dynamics of how that shifts matters. Because it’s very possible, nothing really changes in universities and in major tech companies. Where just, there’s a kind of excitement right now for potential revolution and these new ideas, these new vibes, to reverberate through these companies and universities, but it’s possible the wall will hold.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. So he’s a friend of yours, I respect that you don’t want to name him. I also respect you don’t want to beat on him, so I would like to beat on him on your behalf. Does he have tenure?
Yeah. So he’s a friend of yours, I respect that you don’t want to name him. I also respect you don’t want to beat on him, so I would like to beat on him on your behalf. Does he have tenure?
Lex Fridman
Yes. He should use it.
Yes. He should use it.
Marc Andreessen
So this is the thing. This is the ultimate indictment of the corruption and the rot at the heart of our education system, at the heart of these universities. And it’s, by the way, it’s across the board. It’s all the top universities. Because the siren song for what it’s been for 70 years, whatever, of the tenure system, peer review system, tenure system, which is like, yeah, you work your butt off as an academic to get a professorship and then to get tenure, because then you can say what you actually think. Then you can do your work and your research and your speaking and your teaching without fear of being fired. Without fear of being canceled. Academic freedom. I mean, think of the term academic freedom, and then think of what these people have done to it. It’s gone. That entire thing was fake and is completely rotten. And these people are completely giving up the entire moral foundation of the system that’s been built for them, which by the way, is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.
So this is the thing. This is the ultimate indictment of the corruption and the rot at the heart of our education system, at the heart of these universities. And it’s, by the way, it’s across the board. It’s all the top universities. Because the siren song for what it’s been for 70 years, whatever, of the tenure system, peer review system, tenure system, which is like, yeah, you work your butt off as an academic to get a professorship and then to get tenure, because then you can say what you actually think. Then you can do your work and your research and your speaking and your teaching without fear of being fired. Without fear of being canceled. Academic freedom. I mean, think of the term academic freedom, and then think of what these people have done to it. It’s gone. That entire thing was fake and is completely rotten. And these people are completely giving up the entire moral foundation of the system that’s been built for them, which by the way, is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.
Lex Fridman
What’s the inkling of hope in this? This particular person and others who hear this, what can give them strength, inspiration, and courage?
What’s the inkling of hope in this? This particular person and others who hear this, what can give them strength, inspiration, and courage?
Marc Andreessen
That the population at large is going to realize the corruption in their industry and it’s going to withdraw the funding.
That the population at large is going to realize the corruption in their industry and it’s going to withdraw the funding.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so desperation.
Okay, so desperation.
Marc Andreessen
No, no, no, no, no. Think about what happens next. Okay, so let’s go through it. So the universities are funded by four primary sources of federal funding. The big one is a federal student loan program, which is in the many trillions of dollars at this point, and then only spiraling way faster than inflation. That’s number one. Number two is federal research funding, which is also very large. And you probably know that when a scientist at the university gets a research grant, the university rakes as much as 70% of the money for central uses.
No, no, no, no, no. Think about what happens next. Okay, so let’s go through it. So the universities are funded by four primary sources of federal funding. The big one is a federal student loan program, which is in the many trillions of dollars at this point, and then only spiraling way faster than inflation. That’s number one. Number two is federal research funding, which is also very large. And you probably know that when a scientist at the university gets a research grant, the university rakes as much as 70% of the money for central uses.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
Number three is tax exemption at the operating level, which is based on the idea that these are nonprofit institutions as opposed to, let’s say, political institutions. And then number four is tax exemptions at the endowment level, which is the financial buffer that these places have. Anybody who’s been close to a university budget will basically see that what would happen if you withdrew those sources of federal taxpayer money, and then for the state schools, the state money, they all instantly go bankrupt. And then you could rebuild. Then you could rebuild. Because the problem right now, the folks at University of Austin are mounting a very valiant effort, and I hope that they succeed and I’m cheering for them, but the problem is you’re now inserting. Suppose you and I want to start a new university, and we want to hire all the free thinking professors, and we want to have the place that fixes all this, practically speaking, we can’t do it because we can’t get access to that money.
Number three is tax exemption at the operating level, which is based on the idea that these are nonprofit institutions as opposed to, let’s say, political institutions. And then number four is tax exemptions at the endowment level, which is the financial buffer that these places have. Anybody who’s been close to a university budget will basically see that what would happen if you withdrew those sources of federal taxpayer money, and then for the state schools, the state money, they all instantly go bankrupt. And then you could rebuild. Then you could rebuild. Because the problem right now, the folks at University of Austin are mounting a very valiant effort, and I hope that they succeed and I’m cheering for them, but the problem is you’re now inserting. Suppose you and I want to start a new university, and we want to hire all the free thinking professors, and we want to have the place that fixes all this, practically speaking, we can’t do it because we can’t get access to that money.
I’ll give you the most direct reason we can’t get access to that money, we can’t get access to federal student funding. Do you know how universities are accredited for the purpose of getting access to federal student funding? Federal student loans? They’re accredited by the government, but not directly, indirectly. They’re not accredited by the Department of Education. Instead, what happens is the Department of Education accredits accreditation bureaus that are nonprofits that do the accreditation. Guess what the composition of the accreditation bureaus is? The existing universities. They are in complete control. The incumbents are in complete control as to who gets access to federal student loan money. Guess how enthusiastic they are about accrediting a new university? Right.
And so we have a government funded and supported cartel that has gone… It’s just obvious now. It’s just gone sideways in basically any possible way it could go sideways, including, I mean, literally, as you know, students getting beaten up on campus for being the wrong religion. They’re just wrong in every possible way at this point. And it’s all on the federal taxpayer back. And there is no way, I mean, my opinion, there is no way to fix these things without replacing them. And there’s no way to replace them without letting them fail. And by the way, it’s like everything else in life. I mean, in a sense, this is the most obvious conclusion of all time, which is what happens in the business world when a company does a bad job is they go bankrupt and another company takes its place, and that’s how you get progress. And of course, below that is what happens is this is the process of evolution. Why does anything ever get better? Things are tested and tried, and then the things that are good survive. And so these places, they’ve been allowed to cut themselves off, both from evolution of the institutional level and evolution of the individual level as shown by the just widespread abuse of tenure. And so we’ve just stalled out. We built an ossified system, an ossified, centralized, corrupt system, where we’re surprised by the results. They are not fixable in their current form.
Lex Fridman
I disagree with you on that. Maybe it’s grounded in hope that I believe you can revolutionize a system from within, because I do believe Stanford and MIT are important.
I disagree with you on that. Maybe it’s grounded in hope that I believe you can revolutionize a system from within, because I do believe Stanford and MIT are important.
Marc Andreessen
But that logic doesn’t follow at all. That’s underpants gnome logic.
But that logic doesn’t follow at all. That’s underpants gnome logic.
Lex Fridman
Underpants gnome, can you explain what that means?
Underpants gnome, can you explain what that means?
Marc Andreessen
Underpants gnomes logic. So I just started watching a key touchstone of American culture with my nine-year-old, which of course is South Park.
Underpants gnomes logic. So I just started watching a key touchstone of American culture with my nine-year-old, which of course is South Park.
Lex Fridman
Yes. Wow.
Yes. Wow.
Marc Andreessen
Which by the way is a little aggressive for a nine-year-old.
Which by the way is a little aggressive for a nine-year-old.
Lex Fridman
Very aggressive.
Very aggressive.
Marc Andreessen
But he likes it. He’s learning all kinds of new words.
But he likes it. He’s learning all kinds of new words.
Lex Fridman
And all kinds of new ideas. But yeah, go on.
And all kinds of new ideas. But yeah, go on.
Marc Andreessen
I told him, I said, “You’re going to hear words on here that you are not allowed to use.”
I told him, I said, “You’re going to hear words on here that you are not allowed to use.”
Lex Fridman
Right. Education.
Right. Education.
Marc Andreessen
And I said, “You know how we have an agreement that we never lie to mommy?” I said, “Not using a word that you learn in here does not count as lying. And keep that in mind.”
And I said, “You know how we have an agreement that we never lie to mommy?” I said, “Not using a word that you learn in here does not count as lying. And keep that in mind.”
Lex Fridman
Wow. This is Orwellian redefinition of lying. But yes, go ahead.
Wow. This is Orwellian redefinition of lying. But yes, go ahead.
Marc Andreessen
And of course, in the very opening episode, in the first 30 seconds, one of the kids calls the other kid a dildo. We’re off to the races.
And of course, in the very opening episode, in the first 30 seconds, one of the kids calls the other kid a dildo. We’re off to the races.
Lex Fridman
Yep. Let’s go.
Yep. Let’s go.
Marc Andreessen
“Daddy, what’s a dildo?”
“Daddy, what’s a dildo?”
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
Marc Andreessen
“Sorry son. I don’t know.”
“Sorry son. I don’t know.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
So the-
So the-
Lex Fridman
Underpants gnome.
Underpants gnome.
Marc Andreessen
So famous episode of South Park, the underpants gnomes. All the kids basically realize that their underpants are going missing from their dresser drawers, somebody’s stealing the underpants. And it’s just like, well, who on earth would steal the underpants? And it turns out it’s the underpants gnomes. And it turns out the underpants gnomes have come to town and they’ve got this little underground warren of tunnels in storage places for all the underpants. And so they go out at night, they steal the underpants, and the kids discover that the underpants gnomes, and they’re, “What are you doing? What’s the point of this?” And so the underpants gnomes present their master plan, which is a three-part plan, which is step one, collect underpants, step three, profit, step two, question mark. So you just proposed the underpants gnome. Which is very common in politics.
So famous episode of South Park, the underpants gnomes. All the kids basically realize that their underpants are going missing from their dresser drawers, somebody’s stealing the underpants. And it’s just like, well, who on earth would steal the underpants? And it turns out it’s the underpants gnomes. And it turns out the underpants gnomes have come to town and they’ve got this little underground warren of tunnels in storage places for all the underpants. And so they go out at night, they steal the underpants, and the kids discover that the underpants gnomes, and they’re, “What are you doing? What’s the point of this?” And so the underpants gnomes present their master plan, which is a three-part plan, which is step one, collect underpants, step three, profit, step two, question mark. So you just proposed the underpants gnome. Which is very common in politics.
So the form of this in politics is we must do something. This is something, therefore we must do this. But there’s no causal logic chain in there at all to expect that that’s actually going to succeed because there’s no reason to believe that it is.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but-
Yeah, but-
Marc Andreessen
But this is what I hear all the time, and I will let you talk as the host of the show in a moment, but I hear this all the time. I have friends who are on these boards, very involved in these places, and I hear this all the time, which is like, “Oh, these are very important. We must fix them.” And so therefore, they are fixable. There’s no logic chain there at all.
But this is what I hear all the time, and I will let you talk as the host of the show in a moment, but I hear this all the time. I have friends who are on these boards, very involved in these places, and I hear this all the time, which is like, “Oh, these are very important. We must fix them.” And so therefore, they are fixable. There’s no logic chain there at all.
Lex Fridman
If there’s that pressure that you described in terms of cutting funding, then you have the leverage to fire a lot of the administration and have new leadership that steps up that aligns with this vision that things really need to change at the heads of the universities. And they put students and faculty at primary, fire a lot of the administration, and realign and reinvigorate this idea of freedom of thought and intellectual freedom, because there is already-
If there’s that pressure that you described in terms of cutting funding, then you have the leverage to fire a lot of the administration and have new leadership that steps up that aligns with this vision that things really need to change at the heads of the universities. And they put students and faculty at primary, fire a lot of the administration, and realign and reinvigorate this idea of freedom of thought and intellectual freedom, because there is already-
Lex Fridman
And intellectual freedom. Because there is already a framework of great institutions that’s there, and the way they talk about what it means to be a great institution is aligned with this very idea that you’re talking about, meaning like intellectual freedom, the idea of tenure. On the surface it’s aligned, underneath it’s become corrupted.
And intellectual freedom. Because there is already a framework of great institutions that’s there, and the way they talk about what it means to be a great institution is aligned with this very idea that you’re talking about, meaning like intellectual freedom, the idea of tenure. On the surface it’s aligned, underneath it’s become corrupted.
Marc Andreessen
If we say free speech and academic freedom often enough, sooner or later these tenured professors will get brave.
If we say free speech and academic freedom often enough, sooner or later these tenured professors will get brave.
Lex Fridman
Wait, do you think that universities are fundamentally broken? Okay, so how do you fix it? How do you have institutions for educating 20-year-olds and institutions that host researchers that have the freedom to do epic shit, like research-type shit that’s outside the scopes of R&D departments and inside companies? So how do you create an institution like that?
Wait, do you think that universities are fundamentally broken? Okay, so how do you fix it? How do you have institutions for educating 20-year-olds and institutions that host researchers that have the freedom to do epic shit, like research-type shit that’s outside the scopes of R&D departments and inside companies? So how do you create an institution like that?
Marc Andreessen
How do you create a good restaurant when the one down the street sucks?
How do you create a good restaurant when the one down the street sucks?
Lex Fridman
Right. You invent something new?
Right. You invent something new?
Marc Andreessen
You open a new restaurant.
You open a new restaurant.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
How often in your life have you experienced a restaurant that’s just absolutely horrible, and it’s poisoning all of its customers and the food tastes terrible, and then three years later you go back and it’s fantastic? Charlie Munger actually had the best comment, this great investor, Charlie Munger has great comment. He was once asked, it’s like General Electric was going through all these challenges, and he was asked at a Q&A. It said, “How would you fix the culture at General Electric?” And he said, “Fix the culture at General Electric?” He said, “I couldn’t even fix the culture at a restaurant.”
How often in your life have you experienced a restaurant that’s just absolutely horrible, and it’s poisoning all of its customers and the food tastes terrible, and then three years later you go back and it’s fantastic? Charlie Munger actually had the best comment, this great investor, Charlie Munger has great comment. He was once asked, it’s like General Electric was going through all these challenges, and he was asked at a Q&A. It said, “How would you fix the culture at General Electric?” And he said, “Fix the culture at General Electric?” He said, “I couldn’t even fix the culture at a restaurant.”
It’s insane, like obviously you can’t do it. Nobody in business thinks you can do that, it’s impossible. Now look, having said all that, I should also express this because I have a lot of friends who work at these places and are involved in various attempts to fix these. I hope that I’m wrong, I would love to be wrong, I would love for the underpants gnome step two to be something clear and straightforward that they can figure out how to do. I would love to fix it, I’d love to see them come back to their spoken principles, I think that’d be great, I’d love to see the professors with tenure get bravery, it would be fantastic. My partner and I have done a lot of public speaking on this topic, it’s been intended to not just be harsh, but also be like, okay, these challenges have to be confronted directly.
By the way, let me also say something positive, especially post-October seventh, there are a bunch of very smart people who are major donors and board members of these institutions like Mark Rowan who are really coming in trying to, I think legitimately trying to fix these places. I have a friend on the executive committee at one of the top technical universities. He’s working overtime to try to do this.
Man, I hope they can figure it out. But the counter question would just be like, do you see it actually happening at a single one of these places?
Lex Fridman
I’m a person that believes in leadership. If you have the right leadership, the whole system can be changed.
I’m a person that believes in leadership. If you have the right leadership, the whole system can be changed.
Marc Andreessen
So here’s a question for your friend who have tenure at one of these places, which is who runs his university?
So here’s a question for your friend who have tenure at one of these places, which is who runs his university?
Lex Fridman
You know how I think runs it? Whoever the fuck says they run it, that’s what great leadership is. A president has that power.
You know how I think runs it? Whoever the fuck says they run it, that’s what great leadership is. A president has that power.
Marc Andreessen
But how does-
But how does-
Lex Fridman
President of university has the leverage because they can mouth off like Elon can.
President of university has the leverage because they can mouth off like Elon can.
Marc Andreessen
Can they fire the professors?
Can they fire the professors?
Lex Fridman
They can fire them through being vocal publicly, yes.
They can fire them through being vocal publicly, yes.
Marc Andreessen
Can they fire the professors?
Can they fire the professors?
Lex Fridman
What are you talking about legally? Can we fire? No, they cannot fire the professors.
What are you talking about legally? Can we fire? No, they cannot fire the professors.
Marc Andreessen
Then we know who runs the university.
Then we know who runs the university.
Lex Fridman
The professors?
The professors?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, the professors. The professors and the students, the professors and the feral students. Then they’re of course in a radicalization feedback cycle driving each other crazy.
Yeah, the professors. The professors and the students, the professors and the feral students. Then they’re of course in a radicalization feedback cycle driving each other crazy.
Lex Fridman
You said feral students?
You said feral students?
Marc Andreessen
The feral students. Yeah, the feral students. What happens when you’re put in charge of your bureaucracy where the thing that the bureaucracy knows is that they can outlast you? The thing that the tenured professors at all these places know is it doesn’t matter who the president is because they can outlast them because they cannot get fired. By the way, it’s the same thing that bureaucrats in the government know. It’s the same thing that the bureaucrats in the Department of Education know. They know the exact same thing. They can outlast you. I mean it’s the whole thing that, it’s the resistance. They can be the resistance. They can just sit there and resist, which is what they do. They’re not fireable.
The feral students. Yeah, the feral students. What happens when you’re put in charge of your bureaucracy where the thing that the bureaucracy knows is that they can outlast you? The thing that the tenured professors at all these places know is it doesn’t matter who the president is because they can outlast them because they cannot get fired. By the way, it’s the same thing that bureaucrats in the government know. It’s the same thing that the bureaucrats in the Department of Education know. They know the exact same thing. They can outlast you. I mean it’s the whole thing that, it’s the resistance. They can be the resistance. They can just sit there and resist, which is what they do. They’re not fireable.
Lex Fridman
That’s definitely a crisis that needs to be solved. That’s a huge problem. And I also don’t like that I’m defending academia here. I agree with you that the situation is dire, but I just think that institutions are important. And I should also add context since you’ve been grilling me a little bit, you were using restaurants as an analogy and earlier offline in this conversation you said the Dairy Queen is a great restaurant. So let’s [inaudible 01:10:12].
That’s definitely a crisis that needs to be solved. That’s a huge problem. And I also don’t like that I’m defending academia here. I agree with you that the situation is dire, but I just think that institutions are important. And I should also add context since you’ve been grilling me a little bit, you were using restaurants as an analogy and earlier offline in this conversation you said the Dairy Queen is a great restaurant. So let’s [inaudible 01:10:12].
Marc Andreessen
I didn’t say Dairy Queen is a great restaurant.
I didn’t say Dairy Queen is a great restaurant.
Lex Fridman
Let the listener take-
Let the listener take-
Marc Andreessen
I said Dairy Queen is the best restaurant.
I said Dairy Queen is the best restaurant.
Lex Fridman
The best restaurant. There you go. So everything that Marc Andreessen is saying today, put that into, cont-
The best restaurant. There you go. So everything that Marc Andreessen is saying today, put that into, cont-
Marc Andreessen
You should go order a Blizzard. One day, you should walk down there and order a Blizzard.
You should go order a Blizzard. One day, you should walk down there and order a Blizzard.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
They can get like 4,000 calories in a cup.
They can get like 4,000 calories in a cup.
Lex Fridman
They can and they’re delicious.
They can and they’re delicious.
Marc Andreessen
It’s amazing.
It’s amazing.
Lex Fridman
They are truly delicious. And they-
They are truly delicious. And they-
Marc Andreessen
They’re really fantastic. And they’ll put anything in there you want. Okay. But anyway, let me just close by saying, look, my friends in the university system, I would just say, “Look, this is the challenge.” I would just pose this as the challenge. To me having had a lot of these conversations, this is the bar in my view, this is the conversation that actually has to happen. This is the bar that actually has to be hit. These problems need to be confronted directly because I there’s think there’s been way too much, I mean, I’m actually worried on the other side. There’s too much happy talk in these conversations.
They’re really fantastic. And they’ll put anything in there you want. Okay. But anyway, let me just close by saying, look, my friends in the university system, I would just say, “Look, this is the challenge.” I would just pose this as the challenge. To me having had a lot of these conversations, this is the bar in my view, this is the conversation that actually has to happen. This is the bar that actually has to be hit. These problems need to be confronted directly because I there’s think there’s been way too much, I mean, I’m actually worried on the other side. There’s too much happy talk in these conversations.
I think the taxpayers do not understand this level of crisis, and I think if the taxpayers come to understand it, I think the funding evaporates. And so I think the fuse is going through no fault of any of ours, but the fuse is going and there’s some window of time here to fix this and address it and justify the money because just normal taxpayers sitting in normal towns in normal jobs are not going to tolerate this for that much longer.
Censorship
Lex Fridman
You’ve mentioned censorship a few times. Let us, if we can go deep into the darkness of the past and how censorship mechanism was used. So you are a good person to speak about the history of this because you were there on the ground floor in 2013-ish Facebook. I heard that you were there when they invented or maybe developed the term hate speech in the context of censorship on social media. So take me through that history if you can, the use of censorship.
You’ve mentioned censorship a few times. Let us, if we can go deep into the darkness of the past and how censorship mechanism was used. So you are a good person to speak about the history of this because you were there on the ground floor in 2013-ish Facebook. I heard that you were there when they invented or maybe developed the term hate speech in the context of censorship on social media. So take me through that history if you can, the use of censorship.
Marc Andreessen
So I was there on the ground in 1993.
So I was there on the ground in 1993.
Lex Fridman
There’s multiple floors to this building, apparently.
There’s multiple floors to this building, apparently.
Marc Andreessen
There are.
There are.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
So I got the first ask to implement censorship on the internet, which was in the web browser.
So I got the first ask to implement censorship on the internet, which was in the web browser.
Lex Fridman
That is fascinating.
That is fascinating.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, yeah. Actually 1992. I was asked to implement a nudity filter.
Yeah, yeah. Actually 1992. I was asked to implement a nudity filter.
Lex Fridman
Did you have the courage to speak up back then?
Did you have the courage to speak up back then?
Marc Andreessen
I did not have any problems speaking up back then. I was making $6.25 cents an hour. I did not have a lot to lose. No, I was asked at the time, and then look, in some sense, a legitimate request, which is working on a research project actually funded by the federal government at a public university. So I don’t think my boss was in any way out of line, but it was like, yeah, this web browser thing is great, but could it just make sure to not have any photos of naked people that show up? But if you think about this for a second, as a technologist, I had an issue, which is this was pre-image net. And so I had a brief period where I tried to imagine an algorithm that I referred to as the breast detection algorithm that I was going to have to design and then apparently a variety of other apparently body parts people are also sensitive about. And then I politely declined to do this.
I did not have any problems speaking up back then. I was making $6.25 cents an hour. I did not have a lot to lose. No, I was asked at the time, and then look, in some sense, a legitimate request, which is working on a research project actually funded by the federal government at a public university. So I don’t think my boss was in any way out of line, but it was like, yeah, this web browser thing is great, but could it just make sure to not have any photos of naked people that show up? But if you think about this for a second, as a technologist, I had an issue, which is this was pre-image net. And so I had a brief period where I tried to imagine an algorithm that I referred to as the breast detection algorithm that I was going to have to design and then apparently a variety of other apparently body parts people are also sensitive about. And then I politely declined to do this.
Lex Fridman
For just the technical difficulties of it.
For just the technical difficulties of it.
Marc Andreessen
Well, number one, I actually didn’t know how to do it, but number two is just like, no, I’m just not building a censorship engine. I’m just not doing it. And in those days, the internet generally was a free fire zone for everything. It was actually interesting as sort of pre-’93, the internet was such a specific niche community. It was the million kind of highest IQ nerds in the world. And so it actually didn’t really have a lot of issues that people were super interested in talking about like astrophysics and not very interested in even politics at that time so there really was not an issue there. But yeah, I didn’t want to start the process.
Well, number one, I actually didn’t know how to do it, but number two is just like, no, I’m just not building a censorship engine. I’m just not doing it. And in those days, the internet generally was a free fire zone for everything. It was actually interesting as sort of pre-’93, the internet was such a specific niche community. It was the million kind of highest IQ nerds in the world. And so it actually didn’t really have a lot of issues that people were super interested in talking about like astrophysics and not very interested in even politics at that time so there really was not an issue there. But yeah, I didn’t want to start the process.
So I think the way to think about this, so first of all, yeah. So I was involved in this at Facebook, by the way, I’ve been involved in this at Facebook every step of the way. I joined the board there in 2007 so I’ve seen everything in the last almost 20 years every step of the way. But also I’ve been involved in most of the other companies over time so I was angel investor on Twitter. I knew them really well. We were the founding investor in Substack. Part of the Elon takeover of Twitter with X. I was an angel at LinkedIn. So I’ve been in, we were the funder of Pinterest. We were one of the main investors there, Reddit as well. And I was having these conversations with all these guys all the way through. So as much talk specifically about Facebook, but I can just tell you the general pattern. And for quite a while it was kind of all the same across these companies.
So basically the way to think about this, the true kind of nuanced view of this is that there is practically speaking, no internet service that can have zero censorship. And by the way, that also mirrors, there is no country that actually has unlimited free speech either. The U.S. First Amendment actually has 12 or 13 formal carve outs from the Supreme Court over time. So incitement to violence and terrorist recruitment and child abuse and child pornography and so forth, they’re not covered by the First Amendment. And just practically speaking, if you and I are going to start an internet company and have a service, we can’t have that stuff either because illegal or it will just clearly destroy the whole thing.
So you’re always going to have a censorship engine. I mean hopefully it’s not actually in the browser, but you’re going to have it for sure at the level of an internet service. But then what happens is now you have a machine. Now you have a system where you can put in rules saying, we allow this. We don’t allow that. You have enforcement, you have consequences. And once that system is in place, it becomes the ring of power, which is like, okay, now anybody in that company or anybody associated with that company or anybody who wants to pressure that company will just start to say, “Okay, you should use that machine for more than just terrorist recruitment and child pornography. You should use it for X, Y, Z.”
And basically that transition happened, call it 2012, 2013 is when there was this very, very kind of rapid pivot. I think the kickoff to it for some reason it was the beginning of the second Obama term. I think it also coincided with the sort of arrival of the first kind of super woke kids into these schools. It’s the kids that were in school between for the Iraq war and then the global financial crisis and they came out super radicalized. They came into these companies, they immediately started mounting these social crusades to ban and censor lots of things.
And then quite frankly, the Democratic Party figured this out. And they figured out that these companies were very subject to being controlled and the executive teams and boards of directors were almost all Democrats. And there’s tremendous circulation. A lot of Obama people from the first term actually came and worked in these companies. And a lot of FBI people and other law enforcement intelligence people came in and worked and they were all Democrats for that set. And so the ring of power was lying on the table. It had been built and they picked it up and put it on, and then they just ran.
And the original discussions were basically always on two topics. It was hate speech and misinformation. Hate speech was the original one. And the hate speech conversation started exactly like you’d expect, which is we can’t have the N word. And which the answer is fair enough, let’s not have the N word. Now, we’ve set a precedent, and Jordan Peterson has talked a lot about this. The definition of hate speech ended up being things that make people uncomfortable. So we can’t have things that make people uncomfortable. I, course people like me that are disagreeable raise their hands and say, “Well, that idea right there makes me uncomfortable.” But of course that doesn’t count as hate speech. So the ring of power is on one hand and not on the other hand.
And then basically that began this slide where it ended up being that completely anodyne is the point Mark has been making recently completely anodyne comments that are completely legitimate on television or on the Senate floor all of a sudden are hate speech can’t be said online so that the ring of power was wielded in grossly irresponsible ways. We could talk about all the stuff that happened there.
And then the other one was misinformation. And there was a little bit of that early on, but of course that really kicked in with Trump. So hate speech stuff pre-dated Trump by three or four years. The misinformation stuff was, it was a little bit later and it was a consequence of the Russiagate hoax. And then that was a ring of power that was even more powerful because hate speech, it’s like, okay, at some point if something offensive or not, at least you can have a question as to whether that’s the case. But the problem with misinformation is like, is it the truth or not? What do we know for 800 years or whatever western civilization it’s that there’s only a few entities that can determine the truth on every topic. There’s God, there’s the king. We don’t have those anymore and the rest of us are all imperfect and flawed.
And so the idea that any group of experts is going to sit around the table and decide on the truth is deeply anti-Western and deeply authoritarian. And somehow the misinformation kind of crusade went from the Russiagate hoax into just full-blown, we’re going to use that weapon for whatever we want.
And then of course, then the culminating moment on that, that really was the straw that broke the camel’s back was we’re going to censor all theories that the COVID virus might’ve been manufactured in a lab as misinformation. And inside these companies, that was the point where people for the first time, this is what, three years ago for the first time, they were like, that was when it sunk in where it’s just like, okay, this has spun completely out of control. But anyway, that’s how we got to where we are.
And then basically that spell lasted, that complex existed and got expanded basically from, call it 2013 to 2023. I think basically two things broke it. One is Substack, and I’m super proud of those guys because they started from scratch and declared right up front that they were going to be a free speech platform. And they came under intense pressure, including from the press, and they tried to beat them to the ground and kill them. And intense pressure, by the way, from let’s say certain of the platform companies basically threatening them. And they stood up to it. And sitting here today, they have the widest spectrum of speech and conversation anywhere on planet Earth. And they’ve done a great job. And it is worked by the way. It’s great. And then obviously Elon with X was the hammer blow. And then the third one now is what Mark is doing at Facebook.
Jon Stewart
Lex Fridman
And there’s also singular moments, I think you’ve spoken about this, which like Jon Stewart going on Stephen Colbert and talking about the lab leak theory.
And there’s also singular moments, I think you’ve spoken about this, which like Jon Stewart going on Stephen Colbert and talking about the lab leak theory.
Marc Andreessen
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
There’s certain moments that just kind of shake everybody up, the right person the right time. It’s a wake-up call.
There’s certain moments that just kind of shake everybody up, the right person the right time. It’s a wake-up call.
Marc Andreessen
So that there, and I will tell you, and I should say Jon Stewart attacked me recently, so I’m not that thrilled about him, but I would say I was a long run fan of Jon Stewart. I watched probably every episode of The Daily Show when he was on it for probably 20 years. But he did a very important public service and it was that appearance on the Colbert Show. And I don’t know how broadly this is, at the time, it was in the news briefly, but I don’t know how if people remember this, but I will tell you in the rooms where people discuss what is misinformation and these policies, that was a very big moment. That was probably actually the key catalyzing moment. And I think he exhibited, I would say, conspicuous bravery and had a big impact with that.
So that there, and I will tell you, and I should say Jon Stewart attacked me recently, so I’m not that thrilled about him, but I would say I was a long run fan of Jon Stewart. I watched probably every episode of The Daily Show when he was on it for probably 20 years. But he did a very important public service and it was that appearance on the Colbert Show. And I don’t know how broadly this is, at the time, it was in the news briefly, but I don’t know how if people remember this, but I will tell you in the rooms where people discuss what is misinformation and these policies, that was a very big moment. That was probably actually the key catalyzing moment. And I think he exhibited, I would say, conspicuous bravery and had a big impact with that.
And for people who don’t recall what he did, and this was in the full-blown, you absolutely must lock down for two years. You absolutely must keep all the schools closed. You absolutely must have everybody work from home. You absolutely must wear a mask like the whole thing. And then one of those was you absolutely must believe that COVID was completely natural. You must believe that. And not believing that means you’re a fascist Nazi Trump supporter, MAGA, evil QAnon person. And uniformly, that was enforced by the social media companies. And like I said, that was the peak. And Jon Stewart went on the Colbert Show, and I don’t know if they planned it or not because Colbert looked shocked. I don’t know how much, it was a bit, but he went on there and he just had one of these, the Emperor’s wearing no clothes things where he said, “It’s just not plausible that you had the COVID super virus appear 300 yards down the street from the Wuhan Institute of lethal coronaviruses.” It’s just not plausible that certainly that you could just rule that out.
And then there was another key moment, actually, the more serious version was I think the author, Nicholson Baker wrote a big piece for New York Magazine. And Nicholson Baker is one of our great novelist, writers of our time. And he wrote the piece and he did the complete undressing of it. And that was the first, I think that was the first legit, there had been alt renegade, there had been people running around saying this, but getting censored all over the place. That was the first one that was in the mainstream press and he talked to all the heretics and he just laid the whole thing out. And that was a moment.
And I remember let’s say a board meeting at one of these companies after that where basically everybody looked around the table and was like, “All right, I guess we’re not, we don’t need to censor that anymore.” And then of course, what immediately follows from that is, “Well, wait a minute, why were we censoring that in the first place?” And then the downstream, not that day, but the downstream conversations were like, “Okay, if we made such a giant, in retrospect, if we all made such a giant collective mistake censoring that, then what does that say about the rest of our regime?” And I think that was the thread in the sweater that started to unravel it.
Mark Zuckerberg on Joe Rogan
Lex Fridman
I should say it again, I do think that the Jon Stewart appearance and the statement he made was a courageous act.
I should say it again, I do think that the Jon Stewart appearance and the statement he made was a courageous act.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, I agree.
Yeah, I agree.
Lex Fridman
I think we need to have more of that in the world. And like you said, Elon, everything he did with X is a series of courageous acts. And I think what Mark Zuckerberg did on Rogan a few days ago is a courageous act. Can you just speak to that?
I think we need to have more of that in the world. And like you said, Elon, everything he did with X is a series of courageous acts. And I think what Mark Zuckerberg did on Rogan a few days ago is a courageous act. Can you just speak to that?
Marc Andreessen
He has become, I think, an outstanding communicator, and he’s somebody who came in for a lot of criticism earlier in his career on that front. And I think he’s one of these guys who can sit down and talk for three hours and make complete sense. And as you do with all of your episodes, when somebody sit and talks for three hours, you really get a sense of somebody because it’s really hard to be artificial for that long and he’s now done that repeatedly. He’s really good at it. And then look again, I would maybe put him in the third category now certainly after that appearance, I would say I would put him up there now with kind of Elon and Trump in the sense of the public and the private are now synchronized. I guess I’d say that. He said on that show what he really believes. He said all the same things that he says in private. I don’t think there’s really any discrepancy anymore.
He has become, I think, an outstanding communicator, and he’s somebody who came in for a lot of criticism earlier in his career on that front. And I think he’s one of these guys who can sit down and talk for three hours and make complete sense. And as you do with all of your episodes, when somebody sit and talks for three hours, you really get a sense of somebody because it’s really hard to be artificial for that long and he’s now done that repeatedly. He’s really good at it. And then look again, I would maybe put him in the third category now certainly after that appearance, I would say I would put him up there now with kind of Elon and Trump in the sense of the public and the private are now synchronized. I guess I’d say that. He said on that show what he really believes. He said all the same things that he says in private. I don’t think there’s really any discrepancy anymore.
I would say he has always taken upon himself a level of obligation, responsibility to running a company the size of Meta and to running services that are that large. And I think his conception of what he’s doing, which I think is correct, is he’s running services that are bigger than any country. Over 3 billion people use those services. And then the company has many tens of thousands of employees and many investors, and it’s a public company and he thinks very deeply and seriously about his responsibilities. And so he has not felt like he has had, let’s just say, the complete flexibility that Elon has had. And people could argue that one way or the other, but he talked about a lot. He’s evolved a lot. A lot of it was he learned a lot.
And by the way, I’m going to put myself right back up there. I’m not claiming any huge foresight or heroism on any of this. I’ve also learned a lot, my views on things are very different than they were 10 years ago on lots of topics. And so I’ve been on a learning journey. He’s been on a learning journey. He’s a really, really good learner. He assimilates information as good as, or better than anybody else I know.
The other thing I guess I would just say is he talked on that show about something very important, which is when you’re in a role where you’re running a company like that, there are a set of decisions that you get to make and you deserve to be criticized for those decisions and so forth and it’s valid, but you are under tremendous external pressure as well. And by the way, you’re under tremendous internal pressure. You’ve got your employees coming at you, you’ve got your executives in some cases coming at you. You’ve got your board in some cases coming at you. You’ve got your shareholders coming at you, so you’ve got your internal pressures, but you also have the press coming at you. You’ve got academia coming at you, you’ve got the entire nonprofit complex activist complex coming at you.
And then really critically, he talked about in Rogan and these companies all went through this, in this last especially five years, you had the government coming at you. And that’s the really stinky end of the pool where the government was, in my view, illegally exerting just in flagrant violation of the First Amendment and federal laws on speech and coercion and conspiracy, forcing these companies to engage in activities. Again, in some cases they may have wanted to do, but in other cases they clearly didn’t want to do and felt like they had to do.
And the level of pressure, like I say, I’ve known every CEO Twitter, they’ve all had the exact same experience, which when they were in the job, it was just daily beatings. It’s just getting punched in the face every single day constantly. And Mark is very good at getting physically punched in the face and then-
Lex Fridman
Getting better and better.
Getting better and better.
Marc Andreessen
And he is. And he’s very good at taking a punch, and he has taken many, many punches. So I would encourage people to have a level of sympathy for these are not kings, these are people who operate with I would say extraordinary levels of external pressure. I think if I had been in his job for the last decade, I would be a little puddle on the floor. And so it says, I think a lot about him that he has risen to this occasion the way that he has.
And he is. And he’s very good at taking a punch, and he has taken many, many punches. So I would encourage people to have a level of sympathy for these are not kings, these are people who operate with I would say extraordinary levels of external pressure. I think if I had been in his job for the last decade, I would be a little puddle on the floor. And so it says, I think a lot about him that he has risen to this occasion the way that he has.
And by the way, I should also say the cynicism of course is immediately out and it’s a legitimate thing for people to say, but it’s like, “Oh, you’re only doing this because of Trump or whatever.” And it’s just like, no, he has been thinking about and working on these things and trying to figure them out for a very long time. And so I think what you saw are legitimate, deeply held beliefs, not some sort of just-in-the-moment thing that could change at any time.
Lex Fridman
So what do you think it’s like to be him and other leaders of companies, to be you and withstand internal pressure and external pressure? What’s that life? Is it deeply lonely?
So what do you think it’s like to be him and other leaders of companies, to be you and withstand internal pressure and external pressure? What’s that life? Is it deeply lonely?
Marc Andreessen
That’s a great question. So leaders are lonely to start with. And this is one of those things where almost nobody has sympathy. Nobody feels sorry for a CEO. It’s not a thing. And again, legitimately so CEOs get paid a lot, the whole thing, there’s a lot of great things about it. So it’s not like they should be out there asking for a lot of sympathy, but it is the case that they are human beings and it is the case that it is a lonely job. And the reason it’s a lonely job is because your words carry tremendous weight and you are dealing with extremely complicated issues, and you’re under a tremendous amount of emotional, personal, emotional stress. And you often end up not being able to sleep well, and you end up not being able to keep up an exercise routine and all those things. And you come under family stress because you’re working all the time.
That’s a great question. So leaders are lonely to start with. And this is one of those things where almost nobody has sympathy. Nobody feels sorry for a CEO. It’s not a thing. And again, legitimately so CEOs get paid a lot, the whole thing, there’s a lot of great things about it. So it’s not like they should be out there asking for a lot of sympathy, but it is the case that they are human beings and it is the case that it is a lonely job. And the reason it’s a lonely job is because your words carry tremendous weight and you are dealing with extremely complicated issues, and you’re under a tremendous amount of emotional, personal, emotional stress. And you often end up not being able to sleep well, and you end up not being able to keep up an exercise routine and all those things. And you come under family stress because you’re working all the time.
Or my partner Ben, he was CEO of our last company before we started the venture firm. He said the problem he had with his family life was even when he was home at night, he wasn’t home because he was in his head trying to solve all the business problems. And so he was supposed to be having dinner with his kids and he was physically there, but he wasn’t mentally there so you get that a lot. But the key thing is you can’t talk to people. You can. I mean, you can talk to your spouse and your kids, but they don’t understand that they’re not working in your company. They don’t understand, have the context to really help you. If you talk to your executives, they all have agendas and they can’t resist. It’s just human nature. And so you can’t necessarily rely on what they say. It’s very hard in most companies to talk to your board because they can fire you.
Now, Mark has the situation because he has control, it actually turns out he can talk to his board. And Mark talks to us about many things that most CEOs won’t talk to their boards about literally because we can’t fire him. But a general, including all the CEOs of Twitter, none of them had control and so they could all get fired. You can’t talk to the board members. They’re going to fire, you can’t talk to the shareholders because they’ll just dump your stock. Okay.
So every once in a while, what you find is basically the best case scenario they have is they can talk to other CEOs, and there’s these little organizations where they kind of pair up and do that and so they maybe get a little bit out of that. But even that’s fraught with peril because can you really talk about confidential information with another CEO, insider trading risk. And so it’s just a very lonely isolating thing to start with.
And then on top of that, you apply pressure, and that’s where it gets painful. And then maybe I’ll just spend a moment on this internal external pressure thing. My general experience with companies is that they can withstand most forms of external pressure as long as they retain internal coherence. So as long as the internal team is really bonded together and supporting each other, most forms of external pressure you can withstand. And by that I mean investors dump your stock, you lose your biggest customers, whatever negative article, negative headline, you can withstand all that. And basically, in fact, many of those forms of pressure can be bonding experiences for the team where they come out stronger.
What you 100% cannot withstand is the internal crack. And what I always look for in high pressure corporate situations now is the moment when the internal team cracks because I know the minute that happens, we’re in a different regime. It’s like the solid has turned into a liquid, we’re in a different regime, and the whole thing can unravel in the next week because then people turn, I mean, this is what’s happening in Los Angeles right now. The mayor and the fire chief turned on each other, and that’s it. That government is dysfunctional. It is never going to get put back together again. It is over. It is not going to work ever again. And that’s what happens to inside companies.
And so somebody like Mark is under profound internal pressure and external pressure at the same time. Now he’s been very good at maintaining the coherence of his executive team, but he has had over the years, a lot of activist employees as a lot of these companies have had and so that’s been continuous pressure.
And then the final thing I’d say is I said that companies can withstand most forms of external pressure, but not all [inaudible 01:31:21] though not all one is government pressure. Is it when your government comes for you? Yeah. Any CEO who thinks that they’re bigger than their government, has that notion beaten out of them in short order.
Government pressure
Lex Fridman
Can you just linger on that because it is maybe educating and deeply disturbing? You’ve spoken about it before, but we’re speaking about again this government pressure. So you think they’ve crossed the line into essentially criminal levels of pressure?
Can you just linger on that because it is maybe educating and deeply disturbing? You’ve spoken about it before, but we’re speaking about again this government pressure. So you think they’ve crossed the line into essentially criminal levels of pressure?
Marc Andreessen
Flagrant criminality, felonies, like obvious felonies. And I can actually cite the laws, but yes, absolute criminality.
Flagrant criminality, felonies, like obvious felonies. And I can actually cite the laws, but yes, absolute criminality.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain how those possible to happen and maybe on a hopeful note, how we can avoid that happening again?
Can you explain how those possible to happen and maybe on a hopeful note, how we can avoid that happening again?
Marc Andreessen
So just start with is a lot of this now is in the public record, which is good because it needs to be in the public record. And so there’s three forms of things that are in the public record that people can look at. So one is the Twitter files, which Elon put out with the set of journalists when he took over. And I will just tell you, the Twitter files are a hundred percent representative of what I’ve seen at every other one of these companies. And so you can just see what happened in Twitter and you can just assume that that happened in these other companies for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure that they got. So that’s number one. That stuff, you can just read it and you should if you haven’t.
So just start with is a lot of this now is in the public record, which is good because it needs to be in the public record. And so there’s three forms of things that are in the public record that people can look at. So one is the Twitter files, which Elon put out with the set of journalists when he took over. And I will just tell you, the Twitter files are a hundred percent representative of what I’ve seen at every other one of these companies. And so you can just see what happened in Twitter and you can just assume that that happened in these other companies for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure that they got. So that’s number one. That stuff, you can just read it and you should if you haven’t.
The second is Mark referenced this in the Rogan podcast. There’s a congressman Jim Jordan who has a congressional committee called the Weaponization Committee. And they, in the last, whatever three years, have done a full-scale investigation of this. And Facebook produced a lot of documents into that investigation and many of those have now been made public and you can download those reports. And there’s 2000 pages worth of material on that. And that’s essentially the Facebook version of the Twitter files just arrived at with a different mechanism.
And then third is Mark himself talking about this on Rogan, so I’ll just defer to his comments there. But yeah, basically what those three forms of information show you is basically the government over time and then culminating in 2020, 2021 in the last four years, just decided that the First Amendment didn’t apply to them. And they just decided that federal laws around free speech and around conspiracies to take away the rights of citizens just don’t apply. And they just decided that they can just arbitrarily pressure, just like literally arbitrarily call up companies and threaten and bully and yell and scream and threaten repercussions and force them to censor.
And there’s this whole thing of like, well, the First Amendment only applies to, the government, it doesn’t apply to companies. It’s like, well, there’s actually a little bit of nuance to that. First of all, it definitely applies to the government. 100%, the First Amendment applies to the government. By the way, so does the Fourth Amendment and the Fifth Amendment, including the right to due process, also applies to the government. There was no due process at all to any of the censorship regime that was put in place. There was no due process put in place, by the way, for de-banking either. Those are just as serious violations as the free speech violations. And so this is just flagrant, flagrant, unconstitutional behavior.
And then there are specific federal statutes, 18 241 and 18 242, and one of them applies to federal employees, government employees, and the other one applies to private actors around what’s called deprivation of rights and conspiracy to deprive rights. And it is not legal according to the United States Criminal Code for government employees or in a conspiracy private entities to take away constitutional rights. And interestingly, some of those constitutional rights are enumerated, for example, in the First Amendment, freedom of speech. And then some of those rights actually do not need to be enumerated. If the government takes away rights that you have, they don’t need to be specifically enumerated rights in the Constitution in order to still be a felony. The Constitution very specifically does not say you only have the rights that it gives you. It says you have all the rights that have not been previously defined as being taken away from you. And so de-banking qualifies as a right, right to access to the financial system, is every bit something that’s subject to these laws as free speech. And so yeah, this has happened.
And then I’ll just add one final thing, which is we’ve talked about two parties so far. We talked about the government employees and then we’ve talked about the companies. The government employees for sure have misbehaved. The companies, there’s a very interesting question there as to whether they are victims or perpetrators or both. They will defend, they will argue, and I believe they have a good case, that they are victims, not perpetrators, right? They’re the downstream subjects of pressure, not the cause of pressure, but there’s a big swath of people who are in the middle and specifically the ones that are funded by the government that I think are in possibly pretty big trouble. And that’s all of these third-party censorship bureaus.
I mean, the one that is most obvious is the so-called Stanford Internet Observatory that got booted up there over the last several years. And they basically were funded by the federal government to be third-party censorship operations. And they’re private sector actors, but acting with federal funding. And so it puts them in this very interesting spot where there could be very obvious theory under which they’re basically acting as agents of the government. And so I think they’re also very exposed on this and have behaved in just flagrantly illegal ways.
Lex Fridman
So fundamentally, government should not do any kind of pressure, even soft pressure on companies to censor?
So fundamentally, government should not do any kind of pressure, even soft pressure on companies to censor?
Marc Andreessen
Can’t. Not allowed.
Can’t. Not allowed.
Lex Fridman
It really is disturbing. It probably started soft, lightly slowly, and then it escalates as the old [inaudible 01:36:44] to power will instruct them to do. I mean, yeah, that’s why there’s protection because you can’t put a check on power for government, right?
It really is disturbing. It probably started soft, lightly slowly, and then it escalates as the old [inaudible 01:36:44] to power will instruct them to do. I mean, yeah, that’s why there’s protection because you can’t put a check on power for government, right?
Marc Andreessen
There are so many ways that they can get you. There are so many ways they can come at you and get you. And the thing here to think about is a lot of times when people think about government action, they think about legislation. So when I was a kid, we got trained, how does government work? There was this famous animated short, the thing we got shown was just a cartoon of how a bill becomes a law. It’s like this fancy little bill sneaked along and guess this-
There are so many ways that they can get you. There are so many ways they can come at you and get you. And the thing here to think about is a lot of times when people think about government action, they think about legislation. So when I was a kid, we got trained, how does government work? There was this famous animated short, the thing we got shown was just a cartoon of how a bill becomes a law. It’s like this fancy little bill sneaked along and guess this-
Lex Fridman
I’m just the bill. Yeah.
I’m just the bill. Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
Exactly. It’s like, all right, number one, that’s not how it works at all. That doesn’t actually happen. We could talk about that. But even beyond that, mostly what we’re dealing with is not legislation. When we talk about government power these days, mostly it’s not legislation. Mostly it’s either regulation, which is basically the equivalent of legislation, but having not gone through the legislative process, which is a very big open legal issue. And one of the things that the DOGE is very focused on. Most government rules are not legislated. They’re regulated and there’s tons and tons of regulations that these companies are, this is another cliche you’ll hear a lot, which is, “Oh, private companies can do whatever they want.” It’s like, “Oh no can’t.”
Exactly. It’s like, all right, number one, that’s not how it works at all. That doesn’t actually happen. We could talk about that. But even beyond that, mostly what we’re dealing with is not legislation. When we talk about government power these days, mostly it’s not legislation. Mostly it’s either regulation, which is basically the equivalent of legislation, but having not gone through the legislative process, which is a very big open legal issue. And one of the things that the DOGE is very focused on. Most government rules are not legislated. They’re regulated and there’s tons and tons of regulations that these companies are, this is another cliche you’ll hear a lot, which is, “Oh, private companies can do whatever they want.” It’s like, “Oh no can’t.”
There’s subject to tens of thousands of regulations that they have to comply with. And the hammer that comes down when you don’t comply with regulations is profound. They can completely wreck your company with no ability for you to do anything about it. So regulation is a big part of the way the power gets exercised.
And then there’s called just flat out administrative power, the term that you’ll hear and administrative power is just literally the government telling you, calling you and telling you what to do. Here’s an example of how this works. So Facebook had this whole program a few years back to do a global cryptocurrency for payments called Libra. And they built the entire system and it was this high-scale sort of new cryptocurrency, and they were going to build into every product, and they were going to be 3 billion people who could transact with Libra. And they went to the government and they went to all these different, trying to figure out how to make it so it’s fully compliant with anti-money laundering and all these controls and everything. And they had the whole thing ready to go.
Two senators wrote letters to the big banks saying, “We’re not telling you that you can’t work with Facebook on this, but if you do, you should know that every aspect of your business is going to come under greatly increased level of regulatory scrutiny,” which is of course the exact equivalent of it sure is a nice corner restaurant you have here. It would be a shame if somebody tossed a Molotov cocktail through the window and burned it down tonight, right?
And so what is that letter? It’s not a law. It’s not even a regulation, it’s just.
Marc Andreessen
It’s not a law, it’s not even a regulation, it’s just straight direct state power. And then it culminates in literally calls from the White House where they’re just flat out telling you what to do, which is of course what a king gets to do, but not what a president gets to do. Anyway. So what these companies experienced was they experienced the full panoply of this, but the level of intensity was in that order. It was actually, legislation was the least important part. Regulation was more important, administrative power was more important, and then just flat out demands and flat out threats were ultimately the most important. How do you fix it? Well, first of all, you have to elect people who don’t do it. As with all these things, ultimately the fault lies with the voters. And so you have to decide you don’t want to live in that regime.
It’s not a law, it’s not even a regulation, it’s just straight direct state power. And then it culminates in literally calls from the White House where they’re just flat out telling you what to do, which is of course what a king gets to do, but not what a president gets to do. Anyway. So what these companies experienced was they experienced the full panoply of this, but the level of intensity was in that order. It was actually, legislation was the least important part. Regulation was more important, administrative power was more important, and then just flat out demands and flat out threats were ultimately the most important. How do you fix it? Well, first of all, you have to elect people who don’t do it. As with all these things, ultimately the fault lies with the voters. And so you have to decide you don’t want to live in that regime.
I have no idea what part of this recent election mapped to the censorship regime. I do know a lot of people on the right got very angry about the censorship, but I think it probably at least helped with enthusiasm on that side. Maybe some people on the left will now not want their Democratic nominees to be so pro censorship. So the voters definitely get a vote, number one. Number two, I think you need transparency. You need to know what happened. We know some of what happened. Peter Thiel has written in the FT just now saying, after what we’ve been through in the last decade we need the broad-based truth and reconciliation efforts to really get to the root of things. So maybe that’s part of it. We need investigations for sure. Ultimately, we need prosecutions. Ultimately, we need people to go to jail. Because we need to set object lessons that say that you don’t get to do this. And on those last two, I would say those are both up to the new administration, and I don’t want to speak for them and I don’t want to predict what they’re going to do, but they for sure have the ability to do both of those things and we’ll see where they take it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It’s truly disturbing. I don’t think anybody wants this kind of overreach of power for government, including perhaps people that are participating in it. It’s like this dark momentum of power that you just get caught up in it. And that’s the reason there’s that kind of protection. Nobody wants that.
Yeah. It’s truly disturbing. I don’t think anybody wants this kind of overreach of power for government, including perhaps people that are participating in it. It’s like this dark momentum of power that you just get caught up in it. And that’s the reason there’s that kind of protection. Nobody wants that.
Marc Andreessen
I use the metaphor, the ring of power. And for people who don’t catch the reference, that’s Lord of the Rings. And the thing with the ring of power and Lord of the Rings, it’s the ring the Gollem has in the beginning and it turns you invisible. And it turns out it unlocks all this fearsome power. It’s the most powerful thing in the world, is to key to everything. And basically the moral lesson of Lord of the Rings, which was written by a guy who thought very deeply about these things is, yeah, the ring of power is inherently corrupting. The characters at one point, they’re like, “Gandalf, just put on the ring and fix this.” He will not put the ring on even to end the war because he knows that it will corrupt him. As it starts, the character of Gollem is the result of a normal character who ultimately becomes this incredibly corrupt and deranged version of himself.
I use the metaphor, the ring of power. And for people who don’t catch the reference, that’s Lord of the Rings. And the thing with the ring of power and Lord of the Rings, it’s the ring the Gollem has in the beginning and it turns you invisible. And it turns out it unlocks all this fearsome power. It’s the most powerful thing in the world, is to key to everything. And basically the moral lesson of Lord of the Rings, which was written by a guy who thought very deeply about these things is, yeah, the ring of power is inherently corrupting. The characters at one point, they’re like, “Gandalf, just put on the ring and fix this.” He will not put the ring on even to end the war because he knows that it will corrupt him. As it starts, the character of Gollem is the result of a normal character who ultimately becomes this incredibly corrupt and deranged version of himself.
I think you said something actually quite profound there, which is the ring of power is infinitely tempting. The censorship machine is infinitely tempting. If you have it, you are going to use it. It’s overwhelmingly tempting because it’s so powerful, and that it will corrupt you. Yeah. I don’t know whether any of these people feel any of this today. They should. I don’t know if they do. But yeah. You go out five or 10 years later, you would hope that you would realize that your soul has been corroded and you probably started out thinking that you were a patriot and you were trying to defend democracy, and you ended up being extremely authoritarian and anti-democratic and anti-western.
Nature of power
Lex Fridman
Can I ask you a tough question here? Staying on the ring of power is quickly becoming the most powerful human on earth.
Can I ask you a tough question here? Staying on the ring of power is quickly becoming the most powerful human on earth.
Marc Andreessen
I’m not sure about that.
I’m not sure about that.
Lex Fridman
You don’t think he is.
You don’t think he is.
Marc Andreessen
Well, he doesn’t have the nukes so.
Well, he doesn’t have the nukes so.
Lex Fridman
Nukes. Yeah. There’s different definitions and perspectives on power, right?
Nukes. Yeah. There’s different definitions and perspectives on power, right?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
How can he and or Donald Trump avoid the corrupting aspects of this power?
How can he and or Donald Trump avoid the corrupting aspects of this power?
Marc Andreessen
I think the danger is there with power. It’s flat out there. I would say with Elon, we’ll see. I would say with Elon, and I would say by the way, overwhelmingly, I would say so far so good. I’m extremely, extremely thrilled by what he’s done on almost every front for the last 30 years. But including all this stuff recently. I think he’s been a real hero on a lot of topics where we needed to see heroism. But look, I would say, I guess the case that he has this level of power is some combination of the money and the proximity to the president. And obviously both of those are instruments of power. The counter argument to that is I do think a lot of how Elon is causing change in the world right now … There’s the companies he’s running directly where I think he’s doing very well, and we’re investors in multiple of them and doing very well.
I think the danger is there with power. It’s flat out there. I would say with Elon, we’ll see. I would say with Elon, and I would say by the way, overwhelmingly, I would say so far so good. I’m extremely, extremely thrilled by what he’s done on almost every front for the last 30 years. But including all this stuff recently. I think he’s been a real hero on a lot of topics where we needed to see heroism. But look, I would say, I guess the case that he has this level of power is some combination of the money and the proximity to the president. And obviously both of those are instruments of power. The counter argument to that is I do think a lot of how Elon is causing change in the world right now … There’s the companies he’s running directly where I think he’s doing very well, and we’re investors in multiple of them and doing very well.
But I think a lot of the stuff that gets people mad at him is like, it’s the social and political stuff, and it’s his statements, and then it’s the downstream effects of his statements. So for example, for the last couple of weeks, it’s been him weighing in on this rape gang scandal, this organized child rape thing in the UK. It’s a preface cascade. It’s one of these things where people knew there was a problem, they weren’t willing to talk about it, it got suppressed. And then Elon brought it up, and then all of a sudden there’s now in the UK this massive explosion of basically open conversation about it for the first time. It’s like this catalyzing, all of a sudden everybody’s woken up and being like, “Oh my God, this is really bad.” And there will be now pretty clearly big changes as a result.
And Elon, he played the role of the boy who said, the emperor has no clothes. But here’s the thing, here’s my point. He said it about something that was true. And so had he said it about something that was false, he would get no credit for it. He wouldn’t deserve any credit for it. But he said something that was true. And by the way, everybody over there instantly, they were like, “Oh, yeah, he’s right.” They’re just arguing the details now. So number one, it’s like, okay, he says true things. And so it’s like, okay, how far … Put it this way. How worried are we about somebody becoming corrupt by virtue of their power being that they get to speak the truth? And I guess I would say, especially in the last decade of what we’ve been through where everybody’s been lying all the time about everything, I’d say, I think we should run this experiment as hard as we can to get people to tell the truth. And so I don’t feel that bad about that.
And then the money side, this rapidly gets into the money in politics question. And the money in politics question is this very interesting question because it seems like there’s a clear cut case that the more money in politics, the worse things are and the more corrupted the system is. That was a very popular topic of public conversation up until 2016 when Hillary outspent Trump three to one and lost. You’ll notice that money in politics has almost vanished as a topic in the last eight years. And once again, Kamala raised and spent 1.5 billion on top of what Biden had spent. So they were at, I don’t know, something like three billion total and Trump, I think spent again, a third or a fourth of that. So the money in politics topic has vanished from the popular conversation in the last eight years. It has come back a little bit now that Elon is spending. But again, it’s like, okay, he’s spending, but the data would seem to indicate, at least in the last eight years, that money doesn’t win the political battles. The voters actually have a voice and they actually exercise it, and they don’t just listen to ads. And so again, there, I would say, yeah, clearly there’s some power there, but I don’t know if it’s some weapon that he can just turn on and use in a definitive way.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know if there’s parallels there, but I could also say just on a human level, he has a good heart and I interact with a lot of powerful people, and that’s not always the case. So that’s a good thing there. If we can draw parallels to the Hobbit or whatever. Who gets to put on the ring?
I don’t know if there’s parallels there, but I could also say just on a human level, he has a good heart and I interact with a lot of powerful people, and that’s not always the case. So that’s a good thing there. If we can draw parallels to the Hobbit or whatever. Who gets to put on the ring?
Marc Andreessen
Frodo.
Frodo.
Lex Fridman
Frodo. Yeah.
Frodo. Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. Maybe one of the lessons of Lord of the Rings is even Frodo would’ve been, even Frodo would’ve been corrupted. But nevertheless, you had somebody who could do what it took at the time. The thing that I find just so amazing about the Elon phenomenon and all the critiques is the one thing that everybody in our societies universally agrees on because of our post-Christian egalitarian, so we live in this post secularized Christian context in the west now, and we consider Christianity backwards, but we still believe essentially all the same things. We just dress them up in fake science.
Yeah. Maybe one of the lessons of Lord of the Rings is even Frodo would’ve been, even Frodo would’ve been corrupted. But nevertheless, you had somebody who could do what it took at the time. The thing that I find just so amazing about the Elon phenomenon and all the critiques is the one thing that everybody in our societies universally agrees on because of our post-Christian egalitarian, so we live in this post secularized Christian context in the west now, and we consider Christianity backwards, but we still believe essentially all the same things. We just dress them up in fake science.
So the one thing that we’re all told, we’re all taught from early is that the best people in the world are the people who care about all of humanity. All of our figures are people who care about all of … Jesus cared about all of humanity. Gandhi cared about all of humanity. Martin Luther King cared about all of humanity. The person who cares the most about everybody. And with Elon, you have a guy who literally … He talks about this constantly, and he talks about exactly the same in private. He is literally, he is operating on behalf of all of humanity to try to get us … He goes through to get us through multi-planetary civilization so that we can survive a strike at any one planet so that we can extend the light of human consciousness into the world and into the universe and have it persist in the good of the whole thing. And literally the critique is, yeah, we want you to care about all of humanity, but not like that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. All the critics. All the surface turmoil, the critics will be forgotten.
Yeah. All the critics. All the surface turmoil, the critics will be forgotten.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. I think that’s clear.
Yeah. I think that’s clear.
Lex Fridman
You said that we always end up being ruled by the elites of some kind. Can you explain this law, this idea?
You said that we always end up being ruled by the elites of some kind. Can you explain this law, this idea?
Marc Andreessen
So this comes from a Italian political philosopher from about a hundred years ago named Robert … I’m going to mangle … I’ll let you pronounce the Italian. Michels or Michels. I learned about it through a famous book on politics. Probably the best book on politics written in the 20th century called The Machiavellians by this guy James Burnham, who has had a big impact on me. But in The Machiavellians, he resurrects what he calls this Italian realist school of political philosophy from the ’10s and ’20s. To be clear, this was not like a Mussolini thing. These were people who were trying to understand the actual mechanics of how politics actually works. So to get to the actual mechanical substance of how the political machine operates.
So this comes from a Italian political philosopher from about a hundred years ago named Robert … I’m going to mangle … I’ll let you pronounce the Italian. Michels or Michels. I learned about it through a famous book on politics. Probably the best book on politics written in the 20th century called The Machiavellians by this guy James Burnham, who has had a big impact on me. But in The Machiavellians, he resurrects what he calls this Italian realist school of political philosophy from the ’10s and ’20s. To be clear, this was not like a Mussolini thing. These were people who were trying to understand the actual mechanics of how politics actually works. So to get to the actual mechanical substance of how the political machine operates.
And this guy, Michels had this concept he ended up with called the Iron Law of Oligarchy. And so what the Iron Law of Oligarchy … Take a step back to say what he meant by oligarchy because it has multiple meanings. So basically, in classic political theory, there’s basically three forms of government at core. There’s democracy, which is rule of many, there’s oligarchy, which is rule of the few, and there’s monarchy, which is rule of the one. And you can just use that as a general framework of any government going to be under is going to be one of those. Just mechanical observation. Without even saying which one’s good or bad, just a structural observation. And so the question that Michels asked was, is there such a thing as democracy? Is there actually such a thing as democracy? Is there ever actually direct government? And what he did was he mounted this incredible historical exploration of whether democracies had ever existed in the world. And the answer basically is almost never. And we could talk about that.
But the other thing he did was he sought out the most democratic private organization in the world that he could find at that point, which he concluded was some basically communist German autoworkers union that was wholly devoted to the workers of the world uniting back when that was the hot thing. And he went in there and he is like, okay, this is the organization out of all organizations on planet Earth that must be operating as a direct democracy. And he went in there and he’s like, “Oh, nope.” There’s a leadership class. There’s like six guys at the top and they control everything and they lead the rest of the membership along by the nose, which is of course the story of every union. The story of every union is always the story of there’s a Jimmy Hoffa in there running the thing. We just saw that with the dock worker’s union. There’s a guy and he’s in charge. And by the way, the number two is his son. That’s not an accident.
So the Iron Law of Oligarchy basically says democracy is fake. There’s always a ruling class. There’s always a ruling elite structurally. And he said, “The reason for that is because the masses can’t organize.” What’s the fundamental problem? Whether the mass is 25,000 people in a union or 250 million people in a country, the masses can’t organize, the majority cannot organize, only a minority can organize. And to be effective in politics, you must organize. And therefore, every political structure in human history has been some form of a small organized elite ruling a large and dispersed majority. Every single one. The Greeks and the Florentines had brief experiments in direct democracy, and they were total disasters. In Florence … I forget the name of it. It was called The Workers’ Revolt or something like that. There was a two-year period where they basically experimented with direct democracy during the Renaissance, and it was a complete disaster and they never tried it again.
In the state of California, we have our own experiment on this, which is the proposition system, which is an overlay on top of the legislature. Anybody who looks at it for two seconds concludes it’s been a complete disaster. It’s just a catastrophe, and it’s caused enormous damage to the state. And so basically the presumption that we are in a democracy is just by definition, fake. Now, good news for the US. It turns out the founders understood this. And so of course they didn’t give us a direct democracy. They gave us a representative democracy. And so they built the oligarchy into the system in the form of Congress and the executive branch and the judicial branch. So anyway, so as a consequence, democracy is always everywhere fake. There is always a ruling elite. And basically the lesson of the Machiavellians is you can deny that if you want, but you’re fooling yourself. The way to actually think about how to make a system work and maintain any shred of freedom is to actually understand that that is actually what’s happening.
Lex Fridman
And lucky for us, the founders saw this and figured out a way to, given that there’s going to be a ruling elite, how to create a balance of power among that elite so it doesn’t get out of hand.
And lucky for us, the founders saw this and figured out a way to, given that there’s going to be a ruling elite, how to create a balance of power among that elite so it doesn’t get out of hand.
Marc Andreessen
And it was very clever. Some of this was based on earlier experiments. By the way, these were very, very smart people. And so they knew tremendous amounts of Greek and Roman history. They knew the Renaissance history. The Federalist Papers, they argued this a great length. You can read it all. They ran one of the best seminars in world history trying to figure this out. And they went through all this. So they thought through it very carefully, but just, I’ll give you an example, which continues to be a hot topic. So one way they did it just through the three branches of government, executive, legislative, and judicial. Balance the powers. But the other way they did it was they echoing what had been done earlier I think in the UK Parliament, they created the two different bodies of the legislature. And so the House and the Senate. And as you know, the house is a portion on the basis of population, and the Senate is not. The small states have just as many senators as the big states. And then they made the deliberate decision to have the house get reelected every two years to make it very responsive to the will of the people. And they made the decision to have the Senate get reelected every six years so that it had more buffer from the passions of the moment.
And it was very clever. Some of this was based on earlier experiments. By the way, these were very, very smart people. And so they knew tremendous amounts of Greek and Roman history. They knew the Renaissance history. The Federalist Papers, they argued this a great length. You can read it all. They ran one of the best seminars in world history trying to figure this out. And they went through all this. So they thought through it very carefully, but just, I’ll give you an example, which continues to be a hot topic. So one way they did it just through the three branches of government, executive, legislative, and judicial. Balance the powers. But the other way they did it was they echoing what had been done earlier I think in the UK Parliament, they created the two different bodies of the legislature. And so the House and the Senate. And as you know, the house is a portion on the basis of population, and the Senate is not. The small states have just as many senators as the big states. And then they made the deliberate decision to have the house get reelected every two years to make it very responsive to the will of the people. And they made the decision to have the Senate get reelected every six years so that it had more buffer from the passions of the moment.
But what’s interesting is they didn’t choose one or the other. They did them both. And then to get legislation passed, you have to get through both of them. And so they built in a second layer of checks and balances. And then there’s a thousand observations we could make about how well the system is working today and how much does it live up to the ideal, and how much are we actually complying with the constitution? And there’s lots of open questions there, but this system has survived for coming on 250 years with a country that has been spectacularly successful. But I don’t think, at least … I don’t think any of us would trade the system for any other one. And so it’s one of the great all time achievements.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It’s incredible. And we should say they were all pretty young relative to our current set of leaders.
Yeah. It’s incredible. And we should say they were all pretty young relative to our current set of leaders.
Marc Andreessen
They were. Many in their 20s at the time. And super geniuses. This is one of those things where it’s just like, all right, something happened where there was a group of people where nobody ever tested their IQs, but these are Einstein’s of politics. An amazing thing. But anyway, I go through all that, which is they were very keen students of the actual mechanical practice of democracy, not fixated on what was desirable. They were incredibly focused on what would actually work, which is I think the way to think about these things.
They were. Many in their 20s at the time. And super geniuses. This is one of those things where it’s just like, all right, something happened where there was a group of people where nobody ever tested their IQs, but these are Einstein’s of politics. An amazing thing. But anyway, I go through all that, which is they were very keen students of the actual mechanical practice of democracy, not fixated on what was desirable. They were incredibly focused on what would actually work, which is I think the way to think about these things.
Lex Fridman
There were engineers of sort, not the fuzzy humanity students of sort.
There were engineers of sort, not the fuzzy humanity students of sort.
Marc Andreessen
They were shape rotators, not word cells.
They were shape rotators, not word cells.
Lex Fridman
I remember that. Wow, that meme came and went. I think you were central to them. You’re central to a lot of memes.
I remember that. Wow, that meme came and went. I think you were central to them. You’re central to a lot of memes.
Marc Andreessen
I was.
I was.
Lex Fridman
You’re the meme dealer and the meme popularizer.
You’re the meme dealer and the meme popularizer.
Marc Andreessen
That meme I gets some credit for and then the current thing is the other one I get some credit for. I don’t know that I invented either one, but I popularized them.
That meme I gets some credit for and then the current thing is the other one I get some credit for. I don’t know that I invented either one, but I popularized them.
Journalism
Lex Fridman
Take credit and run with it. If we can just linger on the Machiavellians. It’s a study of power and power dynamics, like you mentioned, looking at the actual reality of the machinery of power. From everything you’ve seen now in government, but also in companies, what are some interesting things you can continue to say about the dynamics of power, the jostling for power that happens inside these institutions?
Take credit and run with it. If we can just linger on the Machiavellians. It’s a study of power and power dynamics, like you mentioned, looking at the actual reality of the machinery of power. From everything you’ve seen now in government, but also in companies, what are some interesting things you can continue to say about the dynamics of power, the jostling for power that happens inside these institutions?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. A lot of it, we already talked about this a bit with the universities, which is you can apply a Machiavellian style lens to … It’s why I posed the question to you that I did, which is okay, who runs the university, the trustees, the administration, the students or the faculty? And the true answer is some combination of the three, of the four plus the donors. By the way, plus the government, plus the press, et cetera. And so there’s a mechanical interpretation of that. Companies operate under the exact same set of questions. Who runs a company? The CEO, but the CEO EO runs the company basically up to the day that either the shareholders or the management team revolt. If the shareholders revolt, it’s very hard for the CEO O to stay in the seat. If the management team revolts, it’s very hard for the CEO to stay in the seat.
Yeah. A lot of it, we already talked about this a bit with the universities, which is you can apply a Machiavellian style lens to … It’s why I posed the question to you that I did, which is okay, who runs the university, the trustees, the administration, the students or the faculty? And the true answer is some combination of the three, of the four plus the donors. By the way, plus the government, plus the press, et cetera. And so there’s a mechanical interpretation of that. Companies operate under the exact same set of questions. Who runs a company? The CEO, but the CEO EO runs the company basically up to the day that either the shareholders or the management team revolt. If the shareholders revolt, it’s very hard for the CEO O to stay in the seat. If the management team revolts, it’s very hard for the CEO to stay in the seat.
By the way, if the employees revolt, it’s also hard to stay in the seat. By the way, if the New York Times comes at you, it’s also very hard to stay in the seat. If the Senate comes at you, it’s very hard to stay in the seat. So a reductionist version of this that is a good shorthand is who can get who fired? So who has more power? The newspaper columnist who makes $200,000 a year, or the CEO who makes $200 million a year/ and it’s like, well, I know for sure that the columnist can get the CEO fired. I’ve seen that happen before I have yet to see a CEO get a columnist fired.
Lex Fridman
Did anyone ever get from the Bill Ackman assault on journalism? So Bill really showed the bullshit that happens in journalism.
Did anyone ever get from the Bill Ackman assault on journalism? So Bill really showed the bullshit that happens in journalism.
Marc Andreessen
No. Because what happens is they wear it with the … And I would say to their credit, they wear it as a badge of honor, and then to their shame, they wear it as a badge of honor, which is if they’re doing the right thing, then they are justifiably priding themselves for standing up under pressure. But it also means that they can’t respond to legitimate criticism and they’re obviously terrible at that now. As I recall, he went straight to the CEO of Axel Springer that owns Insider. I happen to know the CEO O, and I think he’s quite a good CEO. Well, there’s a good example. Does the CEO Axel Springer run his own company?
No. Because what happens is they wear it with the … And I would say to their credit, they wear it as a badge of honor, and then to their shame, they wear it as a badge of honor, which is if they’re doing the right thing, then they are justifiably priding themselves for standing up under pressure. But it also means that they can’t respond to legitimate criticism and they’re obviously terrible at that now. As I recall, he went straight to the CEO of Axel Springer that owns Insider. I happen to know the CEO O, and I think he’s quite a good CEO. Well, there’s a good example. Does the CEO Axel Springer run his own company?
So there’s a fascinating thing playing out right now. Not to dwell on these fires. But you see the pressure reveals things, right? And so if you’ve been watching what’s happening with the LA Times recently. So this guy, biotech entrepreneur buys the LA Times, whatever, eight years ago. It is just like the most radical social revolutionary thing you can possibly imagine. It endorses every crazy left-wing radical you can imagine. It endorses Karen Bass, it endorses Gavin Newsom. It’s just a litany of all the people who are currently burning the city to the ground. It’s just like endorsed every single bad person every step of the way. He’s owned it the entire time. He for the first time, I think, put his foot down right before the November election and said, we’re not … He said, “We’re going to get out of this thing where we just always endorse the Democrat.” I think he said, “We’re not endorsing for the presidency.” And the paper flipped out. It’s like our billionaire backer who’s … And I don’t know what he spends, but he must be burning 50 or a hundred million dollars a year out of his pocket to keep this thing running.
He paid 500 million for it, which is amazing. Back when people still thought these things were businesses. And then he’s probably burned another 500 million over the last decade keeping it running. And he burns probably another 50, a hundred million a year to do this. And the journalists at the LA Times hate him with the fury of a thousand suns. They just absolutely freaking despise him, and they have been attacking him. The ones that can get jobs elsewhere quit and do it, and the rest just stay and say the worst, most horrible things about him. And they want to constantly run these stories attack him. And so he has had this reaction that a lot of people in LA are having right now to this fire and to this just incredibly vivid collapse of leadership. And all these people that his paper head endorsed are just disasters.
He’s on this tour. Basically he’s decided to be the boy who says the emperor has no clothes, but he’s doing it to his own newspaper. Very smart guy. He is on a press tour and he is basically saying, yes, we did all that and we endorsed all these people and it was a huge mistake and we’re going to completely change. And his paper is in a complete internal revolt. But I go through it, which is okay, now we have a very interesting question, which is who runs the LA Times? Because for the last eight years, it hasn’t been him. It’s been the reporters. Now for the first time, the owner is showing up saying, “Oh no, I’m actually in charge,” and the reporters are saying, “No, you’re not.” It is freaking on. And so again, the Machiavellian’s mindset on this is like, okay, how is power actually exercised here? Can a guy who’s even super rich and super powerful who even owns his own newspaper, can he stand up to a full scale assault, not only by his own reporters, but by every other journalism outlet who also now thinks he’s the Antichrist?
Lex Fridman
And he is trying to exercise power by speaking out publicly and so that’s the game of power there.
And he is trying to exercise power by speaking out publicly and so that’s the game of power there.
Marc Andreessen
And firing people.
And firing people.
Lex Fridman
Firing people. Yeah.
Firing people. Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
He has removed people and he has set new rules. He’s now at long last actually exercising prerogatives of an owner of a business, which is decide on the policies and staffing of the business. There are certain other owners of these publications that are doing similar things right now. He’s the one I don’t know so he’s the one I can talk about. But there are others that are going through the same thing right now. And I think it’s a really interesting open question in a fight between the employees and the employer it’s not crystal clear that the employer wins that one.
He has removed people and he has set new rules. He’s now at long last actually exercising prerogatives of an owner of a business, which is decide on the policies and staffing of the business. There are certain other owners of these publications that are doing similar things right now. He’s the one I don’t know so he’s the one I can talk about. But there are others that are going through the same thing right now. And I think it’s a really interesting open question in a fight between the employees and the employer it’s not crystal clear that the employer wins that one.
Bill Ackman
Lex Fridman
And just to stay on journalism for a second, we mentioned Bill Ackman. I just want to say put him in the category we mentioned before of a really courageous person. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anybody so fearless in going after, in following what he believes in publicly. That’s courage. Several things he’s done publicly has been really inspiring. Just being courageous.
And just to stay on journalism for a second, we mentioned Bill Ackman. I just want to say put him in the category we mentioned before of a really courageous person. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anybody so fearless in going after, in following what he believes in publicly. That’s courage. Several things he’s done publicly has been really inspiring. Just being courageous.
Marc Andreessen
What do you think is the most impressive example?
What do you think is the most impressive example?
Lex Fridman
Where he went after journalists whose whole incentive is to … It’s like kicking the beehive or whatever. You know what’s going to follow and to do that. That’s why it’s difficult to challenge journalistic organizations because they’re going to … There’s just so many mechanisms they use, including writing articles and get cited by Wikipedia and then drive the narrative and then they can get you fired, all this stuff. Bill Ackman, like a bad MFer just tweets these essays and just goes after them legally and also in the public eye. I don’t know. That was truly inspiring. There’s not many people like that in public and hopefully that inspires not just me, but many others to be courageous themselves.
Where he went after journalists whose whole incentive is to … It’s like kicking the beehive or whatever. You know what’s going to follow and to do that. That’s why it’s difficult to challenge journalistic organizations because they’re going to … There’s just so many mechanisms they use, including writing articles and get cited by Wikipedia and then drive the narrative and then they can get you fired, all this stuff. Bill Ackman, like a bad MFer just tweets these essays and just goes after them legally and also in the public eye. I don’t know. That was truly inspiring. There’s not many people like that in public and hopefully that inspires not just me, but many others to be courageous themselves.
Marc Andreessen
Did you know of him before he started doing this in public?
Did you know of him before he started doing this in public?
Lex Fridman
I knew of Neri, his wife, who’s a brilliant researcher and scientist. And so I admire her. Looked up to her and think she’s amazing.
I knew of Neri, his wife, who’s a brilliant researcher and scientist. And so I admire her. Looked up to her and think she’s amazing.
Marc Andreessen
Well, the reason I ask if you knew about Bill is because a lot of people had not heard of him before, especially before October 7th and before some of the campaigns he’s been running since in public with Harvard and so forth. But he was very well known in the investment world before that. He was a so-called activist investor for … Very successful and widely respected for probably 30 years before now. And I bring that up because it turns out they weren’t for the most part battles that happened in full public view. They weren’t national stories. But in the business and world, the activist investor is a very … It’s like in the movie Taken. It’s a very specific set of skills on how to really take control of situations and how to wreck the people who you’re going up against. There’s been controversy over the years on this topic, and there’s too much detail to go into. But the defense of activist investing, which I think is valid, is these are the guys who basically go in and take stakes in companies that are being poorly managed or under-optimized. And then generally what that means is, at least the theory is that means the existing management is become entrenched and lazy, mediocre, whatever. Not you’re responding to the needs of the shareholders. Often not responding to the customers. And the activists basically go in with a minority position and then they rally support among other investors who are not activists. And then they basically show up and they force change. But they are the aggressive version of this. I’ve been involved in companies that have been on the receiving end of these where it is amazing how much somebody like that can exert pressure on situations even when they don’t have formal control. It would be another chess piece on the mechanical board of how power gets exercised. And basically what happens is the effective analysts, a large amount of time they end up taking over control of companies even though they never own more than 5% of the stock. So anyway,
Well, the reason I ask if you knew about Bill is because a lot of people had not heard of him before, especially before October 7th and before some of the campaigns he’s been running since in public with Harvard and so forth. But he was very well known in the investment world before that. He was a so-called activist investor for … Very successful and widely respected for probably 30 years before now. And I bring that up because it turns out they weren’t for the most part battles that happened in full public view. They weren’t national stories. But in the business and world, the activist investor is a very … It’s like in the movie Taken. It’s a very specific set of skills on how to really take control of situations and how to wreck the people who you’re going up against. There’s been controversy over the years on this topic, and there’s too much detail to go into. But the defense of activist investing, which I think is valid, is these are the guys who basically go in and take stakes in companies that are being poorly managed or under-optimized. And then generally what that means is, at least the theory is that means the existing management is become entrenched and lazy, mediocre, whatever. Not you’re responding to the needs of the shareholders. Often not responding to the customers. And the activists basically go in with a minority position and then they rally support among other investors who are not activists. And then they basically show up and they force change. But they are the aggressive version of this. I’ve been involved in companies that have been on the receiving end of these where it is amazing how much somebody like that can exert pressure on situations even when they don’t have formal control. It would be another chess piece on the mechanical board of how power gets exercised. And basically what happens is the effective analysts, a large amount of time they end up taking over control of companies even though they never own more than 5% of the stock. So anyway,
So it turns out with Bill’s … It’s such a fascinating case. He has that complete skill set. And he has now decided to bring it to bear in areas that are not just companies. And two interesting things for that. One is some of these places and some of these battles are still ongoing, but number one, a lot of people who run universities or newspapers are not used to being up against somebody like this. And by the way, also now with infinitely deep pockets and lots of experience in courtrooms and all the things that go with that. But the other is through example he is teaching a lot of the rest of us the activists playbook in real time. And so the Liam Neeson skill set is getting more broadly diffused just by being able to watch and learn from him. So I think he’s having a … I would put him up there with Elon in terms of somebody who’s really affecting how all this is playing out.
Lex Fridman
But even set aside just courage and-
But even set aside just courage and-
Marc Andreessen
Yes. Including by the way, courage to go outside of his own zone. I’ll give you an example. My venture capital firm, we have LPs. There are things that I feel like I can’t do or say because I feel like I would be bringing embarrassment or other consequences to our LPs. He has investors also where he worries about that. So a couple of things. One, it’s his willingness to go out a bit and risk his relationship with his own investors. But I will tell you the other thing, which is his investors … I know this for a fact. His investors have been remarkably supportive of him doing that. Because as it turns out, a lot of them actually agree with him. It’s the same thing he does in his activism campaigns. He is able to be the tip of the spear on something that actually a lot more people agree with.
Yes. Including by the way, courage to go outside of his own zone. I’ll give you an example. My venture capital firm, we have LPs. There are things that I feel like I can’t do or say because I feel like I would be bringing embarrassment or other consequences to our LPs. He has investors also where he worries about that. So a couple of things. One, it’s his willingness to go out a bit and risk his relationship with his own investors. But I will tell you the other thing, which is his investors … I know this for a fact. His investors have been remarkably supportive of him doing that. Because as it turns out, a lot of them actually agree with him. It’s the same thing he does in his activism campaigns. He is able to be the tip of the spear on something that actually a lot more people agree with.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It turns out if you have truth behind you, it helps.
Yeah. It turns out if you have truth behind you, it helps.
Marc Andreessen
And just again, how I started is a lot of people are just fed up.
And just again, how I started is a lot of people are just fed up.
Trump administration
Lex Fridman
You’ve been spending a bunch of time in Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach helping the new administration in many ways, including interviewing people who might join. So what’s your general sense about the talent, about the people who are coming into the new administration?
You’ve been spending a bunch of time in Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach helping the new administration in many ways, including interviewing people who might join. So what’s your general sense about the talent, about the people who are coming into the new administration?
Marc Andreessen
So I should start by saying I’m not a member of the new administration. I’m not in the room when a lot of these people are being selected.
So I should start by saying I’m not a member of the new administration. I’m not in the room when a lot of these people are being selected.
Lex Fridman
I believe you said unpaid intern.
I believe you said unpaid intern.
Marc Andreessen
I am an unpaid intern. So I’m a volunteer when helpful, but I’m not making the decisions, nor am I in a position to speak for the administration. I don’t want to say anything that would cause people to think I’m doing that. It’s a very unusual situation where you had an incumbent president and then you had a four-year gap where he is out of office, and then you have him coming back. And as you’ll recall, there was a fair amount of controversy over the end of the first term. The specific concern was the first Trump administration, they will all say this is they didn’t come in with a team. They didn’t come into the team. And most of the institutional base of the Republican Party were Bush Republicans. And many of them had become never Trumpers. And so they had a hard time putting the team together. And then by the way, they had a hard time getting people confirmed. And so if you talk to the people who were there in the first term, it took them two to three years to even get the government in place. And then they basically only had the government in place for basically like 18 months and then COVID hit. And then the aftermath and everything and all the drama and headlines and everything.
I am an unpaid intern. So I’m a volunteer when helpful, but I’m not making the decisions, nor am I in a position to speak for the administration. I don’t want to say anything that would cause people to think I’m doing that. It’s a very unusual situation where you had an incumbent president and then you had a four-year gap where he is out of office, and then you have him coming back. And as you’ll recall, there was a fair amount of controversy over the end of the first term. The specific concern was the first Trump administration, they will all say this is they didn’t come in with a team. They didn’t come into the team. And most of the institutional base of the Republican Party were Bush Republicans. And many of them had become never Trumpers. And so they had a hard time putting the team together. And then by the way, they had a hard time getting people confirmed. And so if you talk to the people who were there in the first term, it took them two to three years to even get the government in place. And then they basically only had the government in place for basically like 18 months and then COVID hit. And then the aftermath and everything and all the drama and headlines and everything.
And so the concern, including from some very smart people in the last two years has been, boy, if Trump gets a second term, is he going to be able to get a team that is as good as the team he had last time or a team that is actually not as good? Because maybe people got burned out. Maybe they’re more cynical now. Maybe they’re not willing to go through the drama. By the way, a lot of people in the first term came under their own withering legal assaults, and some of them went to prison. A lot of stuff happened. Lots of investigations, lots of legal fees, lots of bad press, lots of debanking by the way. A lot of the officials in the first Trump term got debanked, including the president’s wife and son.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I heard you tell that story. That’s insane. That’s just insane.
Yeah. I heard you tell that story. That’s insane. That’s just insane.
Marc Andreessen
In the wake of the first term, yes. We now take out spouses and children with our ring of power. And so there’s this legitimate question as to okay, what will the team for the second term look like? At least what I’ve seen and what you’re seeing with the appointments is it looks much, much better. First of all, it just looks better than the first term and not because the people in the first term were not necessarily good, but you just have this influx of incredibly capable people that have shown up that want to be part of this and you just didn’t have that the first time. And so they’re just drawing on a much deeper, richer talent pool than they had the first time. And they’re drawing on people who know what the game is. They’re drawing on people now who know what is going to happen, and they’re still willing to do it.
In the wake of the first term, yes. We now take out spouses and children with our ring of power. And so there’s this legitimate question as to okay, what will the team for the second term look like? At least what I’ve seen and what you’re seeing with the appointments is it looks much, much better. First of all, it just looks better than the first term and not because the people in the first term were not necessarily good, but you just have this influx of incredibly capable people that have shown up that want to be part of this and you just didn’t have that the first time. And so they’re just drawing on a much deeper, richer talent pool than they had the first time. And they’re drawing on people who know what the game is. They’re drawing on people now who know what is going to happen, and they’re still willing to do it.
And so they’re going to get, I think, some of the best people from the first term, but they’re bringing in a lot of people who they couldn’t get the first time around. And then second is there’s a bunch of people, including people in the first term where they’re just 10 years older. And so they went through the first term and they just learned how everything works. Or there are young people who just had a different point of view and now they’re 10 years older and they’re ready to go serve in government. So there’s a generational shift happening. And actually one of the interesting things about the team that’s forming up is it’s remarkably young. Some of the cabinet members and then many of the second and third level people are in their 30s and 40s, which is a big change from the gerontocracy that we’ve been under for the last 30 years.
I think the caliber has been outstanding. And we could sit here and list tons and tons of people, but the people who are running. It’s everything from the people who are running all the different departments at HHS. The number two at the Pentagon is Steve Feinberg, who’s just an incredible legend of private equity, incredible capable guy. Actually two of my partners are going in who I both think are amazing. Many, many parts of the government the people are really impressive.
Lex Fridman
Well, I think one of the concerns is actually that given the human being of Donald Trump, that there would be more tendency towards, let’s say favoritism versus meritocracy. That there’s circles of sycophancy that form. And if you’re be able to be loyal and never oppose and just basically suck up to the president, that you’ll get a position. So that’s one of the concerns. And I think you’re in a good position to speak to the degree that’s happening versus hiring based on merit and just getting great teams.
Well, I think one of the concerns is actually that given the human being of Donald Trump, that there would be more tendency towards, let’s say favoritism versus meritocracy. That there’s circles of sycophancy that form. And if you’re be able to be loyal and never oppose and just basically suck up to the president, that you’ll get a position. So that’s one of the concerns. And I think you’re in a good position to speak to the degree that’s happening versus hiring based on merit and just getting great teams.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. So look, start by saying any leader at that level, by the way, any CEO, there’s always some risk of that. That’s like a natural reality warps around powerful leaders. And so there’s always some risk to that. Of course, the good powerful leaders are very aware of that. And Trump, at this point in his life, I think is highly aware of that, at least in my interactions with him. He definitely seems very aware of that. So that’s one thing. I would just say, I think the way to look at that … And look, like I said, I don’t want to predict what’s going to happen once this whole thing starts unfolding. I would just say again, the caliber of the people who are showing up and getting the jobs, and then the fact that these are some of the most accomplished people in the business world and in the medical field. Jay Bhattacharya coming in to run NIH. I was part of the interview team for a lot of the HHS folks.
Yeah. So look, start by saying any leader at that level, by the way, any CEO, there’s always some risk of that. That’s like a natural reality warps around powerful leaders. And so there’s always some risk to that. Of course, the good powerful leaders are very aware of that. And Trump, at this point in his life, I think is highly aware of that, at least in my interactions with him. He definitely seems very aware of that. So that’s one thing. I would just say, I think the way to look at that … And look, like I said, I don’t want to predict what’s going to happen once this whole thing starts unfolding. I would just say again, the caliber of the people who are showing up and getting the jobs, and then the fact that these are some of the most accomplished people in the business world and in the medical field. Jay Bhattacharya coming in to run NIH. I was part of the interview team for a lot of the HHS folks.
Lex Fridman
Nice. Jay’s amazing. Oh, I was so happy to see that.
Nice. Jay’s amazing. Oh, I was so happy to see that.
Marc Andreessen
So I literally got … This is the story. I got to the transition office for one of the days of the HHS interviews, and I was on one of the interview interviewing teams. I didn’t know who the candidates were, and they gave us the sheet in the beginning, and I go down the sheet and I saw Jay’s name. I almost physically fell on my chair. And I was just like … I happen to know Jay. I happen to know Jay, and I respect him enormously. And then he proved himself under this … Talk about a guy who proved himself under extraordinary pressure over the last five years.
So I literally got … This is the story. I got to the transition office for one of the days of the HHS interviews, and I was on one of the interview interviewing teams. I didn’t know who the candidates were, and they gave us the sheet in the beginning, and I go down the sheet and I saw Jay’s name. I almost physically fell on my chair. And I was just like … I happen to know Jay. I happen to know Jay, and I respect him enormously. And then he proved himself under this … Talk about a guy who proved himself under extraordinary pressure over the last five years.
Lex Fridman
And then go radical under the pressure. He maintained balance and thoughtfulness and depth. Incredibly-
And then go radical under the pressure. He maintained balance and thoughtfulness and depth. Incredibly-
Marc Andreessen
Very serious, very analytical, very applied. Yes. A hundred percent. Tested under pressure came out. The more people look back at what he said and did. None of us perfect, but overwhelmingly insightful throughout that whole period. We would all be much better off today had he been in charge of the response. And so just an incredibly capable guy. And look, and then he learned from all that. He learned a lot in the last five years. And so the idea that somebody that could be head of NIH as compared to the people we’ve had is just breathtakingly. It’s just a gigantic upgrade. And then Marty McAree coming.
Very serious, very analytical, very applied. Yes. A hundred percent. Tested under pressure came out. The more people look back at what he said and did. None of us perfect, but overwhelmingly insightful throughout that whole period. We would all be much better off today had he been in charge of the response. And so just an incredibly capable guy. And look, and then he learned from all that. He learned a lot in the last five years. And so the idea that somebody that could be head of NIH as compared to the people we’ve had is just breathtakingly. It’s just a gigantic upgrade. And then Marty McAree coming.
Marc Andreessen
It is just a gigantic upgrade. And then Marty Makary coming in to run FDA, exact same thing. The guy coming to run a CDC, exact same thing. I’ve been spending time with Dr. Oz. So again, I’m not on these teams, I’m not in the room, but I’ve been spending enough time trying to help that his level of insight into the healthcare system, it’s astounding. And it comes from being a guy who’s been in the middle of the whole thing and been talking to people about this stuff, and working on it and serving as a doctor himself and in medical systems for his entire life. He’s like a walking encyclopedia on these things. And very dynamic, very charismatic, very smart, organized, effective. So to have somebody like that in there. And so anyway, I have 30 of these stories now across all these different positions. And then to be quite honest, you do the compare and contrast to the last four years, and these people are not in the same ballpark, they’re just wildly better. And so pound for pound this maybe the best team in the White House since, I don’t even know, maybe the 90s, maybe the 30s, maybe the 50s. Maybe Eisenhower had a team like this or something, but there’s a lot of really good people in there now.
It is just a gigantic upgrade. And then Marty Makary coming in to run FDA, exact same thing. The guy coming to run a CDC, exact same thing. I’ve been spending time with Dr. Oz. So again, I’m not on these teams, I’m not in the room, but I’ve been spending enough time trying to help that his level of insight into the healthcare system, it’s astounding. And it comes from being a guy who’s been in the middle of the whole thing and been talking to people about this stuff, and working on it and serving as a doctor himself and in medical systems for his entire life. He’s like a walking encyclopedia on these things. And very dynamic, very charismatic, very smart, organized, effective. So to have somebody like that in there. And so anyway, I have 30 of these stories now across all these different positions. And then to be quite honest, you do the compare and contrast to the last four years, and these people are not in the same ballpark, they’re just wildly better. And so pound for pound this maybe the best team in the White House since, I don’t even know, maybe the 90s, maybe the 30s, maybe the 50s. Maybe Eisenhower had a team like this or something, but there’s a lot of really good people in there now.
DOGE
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the potential for change is certainly extremely high. Can you speak to DOGE? What’s the most wildly successful next two years for DOGE, can you imagine? Maybe also can you think about the trajectory that’s the most likely and what kind of challenges would it be facing?
Yeah, the potential for change is certainly extremely high. Can you speak to DOGE? What’s the most wildly successful next two years for DOGE, can you imagine? Maybe also can you think about the trajectory that’s the most likely and what kind of challenges would it be facing?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, so start by saying, again, disclaimer, I have to say, I’m not on DOGE, I’m not a member of DOGE.
Yeah, so start by saying, again, disclaimer, I have to say, I’m not on DOGE, I’m not a member of DOGE.
Lex Fridman
We should say there’s about 10 lawyers in the room, they’re staring. No, I’m just kidding.
We should say there’s about 10 lawyers in the room, they’re staring. No, I’m just kidding.
Marc Andreessen
Both the angels and the devils on my shoulder are literally [inaudible 02:13:51]. So I’m not speaking for DOGE, I’m not in charge of DOGE. Those guys are doing it, I’m not doing it. But again, I’m volunteering to help as much as I can and I’m 100% supportive. Yeah, so look, I think the way to think, the basic outlines are in public, which is it’s a time limited basically commission. It’s not a formal government agency. It’s a time limited, 18 month. In terms of implementation, it will advise the executive branch. And so the implementation will happen through the White House. And the president has total latitude on what he wants to implement. And then basically what I think about it is three streams, target sets, and they’re related but different. So money, people, and regulations. And so the headline number they put as the $2 trillion number, and there’s already disputes over that and whatever, and there’s a whole question there. But then there’s the people thing.
Both the angels and the devils on my shoulder are literally [inaudible 02:13:51]. So I’m not speaking for DOGE, I’m not in charge of DOGE. Those guys are doing it, I’m not doing it. But again, I’m volunteering to help as much as I can and I’m 100% supportive. Yeah, so look, I think the way to think, the basic outlines are in public, which is it’s a time limited basically commission. It’s not a formal government agency. It’s a time limited, 18 month. In terms of implementation, it will advise the executive branch. And so the implementation will happen through the White House. And the president has total latitude on what he wants to implement. And then basically what I think about it is three streams, target sets, and they’re related but different. So money, people, and regulations. And so the headline number they put as the $2 trillion number, and there’s already disputes over that and whatever, and there’s a whole question there. But then there’s the people thing.
And the people thing is interesting, because you get into these very fascinating questions. And I’ve been doing this, I won’t do this for you as a pop quiz, but I do this for people in government as a pop quiz and I can stump them every time. Which is, A, how many federal agencies are there? And the answer is somewhere between 450 and 520, and nobody’s quite sure. And then the other is how many people work for the federal government? And the answer is something on the order, I forget, but like 4 million full-time employees and maybe up to 20 million contractors, and nobody’s quite sure. And so there’s a large people component to this. And then by the way, there’s a related component to that, which is how many of them are actually in the office? And the answer is not many, most of the federal buildings are still empty.
And then there’s questions of are people working from home or are we actually working from home? So there’s the people dimension, and of course the money and the people are connected. And then there’s the third, which is the regulation thing. And I described earlier how basically our system of government is much more now based on regulations than legislation. Most of the rules that we all live under are not from a bill that went through Congress, they’re from an agency that created a regulation. That turns out to be very, very important. So one is Elon had already described the DOGE wants to do broad-based regulatory relief, and Trump has talked about this, and basically get the government off of people’s backs and liberate the American people to be able to do things again. So that’s part of it. But there’s also something else that’s happened, which is very interesting, which was there were a set of Supreme Court decisions about two years ago that went directly after the idea that the executive branch can create regulatory agencies, and issue regulations and enforce those regulations without corresponding congressional legislation.
And most of the federal government that exists today, including most of the departments and most of the rules and most of the money and most of the people, most of it is not enforcing laws that Congress passed. Most of it is regulation. And the Supreme Court basically said, “Large parts, large to maybe all of that regulation that did not directly result from a bill that went through Congress, the way that the cartoon said that it should, may not actually be legal. Now, the previous White House, of course, was super in favor of big government. They did nothing based on this, they didn’t pull anything back in. But the new regime, if they choose to, could say, “Look, the thing that we’re doing here is not challenging the laws, we’re actually complying with the Supreme Court decision that basically says we have to unwind a lot of this and we have to unwind the regulations which are no longer legal, constitutional. We have to unwind the spend and we have to unwind the people.
And that’s how you get from basically you connect the thread from the regulation part back to the money part back to the people part. They have work going on all three of these threads. They have, I would say, incredibly creative ideas on how to deal with this. I know lots of former government people who 100% of them are super cynical on this topic, and they’re like, “This is impossible, this could never possibly work.” And I’m like, “Well, I can’t tell you what the secret plans are, but blow my mind.” And all three of those, they have ideas that are really quite amazing, as you’d expect from the people involved. And so over the course of the next few months, that’ll start to become visible. And then the final thing I would say is this is going to be very different than attempts, there have been other programs like this in the past. The Clinton-Gore administration had one and then there were others before that, Reagan had one. The difference is this time, their social media,
It’s interesting, one of the reasons people in Washington are so cynical is because they know all the bull shit. They know all the bad spending and all the bad rules. Look, we’re adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now. And that’s compounding, and it’s now passing the size of the defense department budget and it’s compounding, and pretty soon it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 90 days, and then it’s going to be adding a trillion dollars every 80 days, and then it’s going to be a trillion dollars every 70 days. And then if this doesn’t get fixed, at some point we enter a hyperinflationary spiral and we become Argentina or Brazil, and [inaudible 02:18:44]. And so everybody in D.C. knows that something has to be done, and then everybody in D.C. knows for a fact that it’s impossible to do anything.
They know all the problems and they also know the sheer impossibility of fixing it. But I think what they’re not taking into account, what the critics are not taking into account is these guys can do this in the full light of day. And they can do it on social media, they can completely bypass the press, they can completely bypass the cynicism. They can expose any element of unconstitutional or silly government spending. They can run victory laps every single day on what they’re doing. They can bring the people into the process. And again, if you think about it, this goes back to our Machiavellian structure, which is if you think about, again, you’ve got democracy, oligarchy, monarchy, rule of the many, rule of the few, rule of the one. You could think about what’s happening here as a little bit of a sandwich, which is we don’t have a monarch, but we have a president, rule of the one with some power.
And then we have the people who can’t organize, but they can be informed and they can be aware, and they can express themselves through voting and polling. So there’s a sandwich happening right now is the way to think about it, which is you’ve got basically rule of one combining with rule of many. And rule of many is they do get to vote, the people do get to vote basically, and then essentially Congress and this permanent bureaucratic class in Washington as the oligarchy in the middle. And so the White House plus the people I think have the power to do all kinds of things here, and I think that would be the way I would wash it.
Lex Fridman
The transparency. Elon, just by who he is is incentivized to be transparent, and show the bull shit in the system and to celebrate the victories. So it’s going to be so exciting. It honestly just makes government more exciting, which is a win for everybody.
The transparency. Elon, just by who he is is incentivized to be transparent, and show the bull shit in the system and to celebrate the victories. So it’s going to be so exciting. It honestly just makes government more exciting, which is a win for everybody.
Marc Andreessen
These people are spending our money. These people have enormous contempt for the taxpayer. Okay, here’s the thing you hear in Washington, here’s one of the things. So the first thing you hear is, “This is impossible, they’ll be able to do nothing.” And then, yeah, I walk them through this and it starts to dawn on them that this is a new kind of thing. And then they’re like, “Well, it doesn’t matter, because all the money is in entitlements and the debt and the military.” And so yeah, you’ve got this silly, fake whatever, NPR funding or whatever, and just it’s a rounding error and it doesn’t matter. And you look it up in the budget and it’s like, whatever, $500 million or $5 billion, or it’s the charging stations that don’t exist. It’s the $40 billion of charging stations and they build eight charging stations, or it’s the broadband internet plan that delivered broadband to nobody and cost you $30 billion, so these boondoggles. And what everybody in Washington says is that $30 billion is a rounding error on the federal budget, it doesn’t matter. Who cares if they make it go away? And of course, any taxpayer is like, “What the fuck?”
These people are spending our money. These people have enormous contempt for the taxpayer. Okay, here’s the thing you hear in Washington, here’s one of the things. So the first thing you hear is, “This is impossible, they’ll be able to do nothing.” And then, yeah, I walk them through this and it starts to dawn on them that this is a new kind of thing. And then they’re like, “Well, it doesn’t matter, because all the money is in entitlements and the debt and the military.” And so yeah, you’ve got this silly, fake whatever, NPR funding or whatever, and just it’s a rounding error and it doesn’t matter. And you look it up in the budget and it’s like, whatever, $500 million or $5 billion, or it’s the charging stations that don’t exist. It’s the $40 billion of charging stations and they build eight charging stations, or it’s the broadband internet plan that delivered broadband to nobody and cost you $30 billion, so these boondoggles. And what everybody in Washington says is that $30 billion is a rounding error on the federal budget, it doesn’t matter. Who cares if they make it go away? And of course, any taxpayer is like, “What the fuck?”
Lex Fridman
What do you mean?
What do you mean?
Marc Andreessen
It’s $30 billion. And the press is in on this too, and then the experts are like, “Well, it doesn’t matter because it’s rounding error.” No, it’s $30 billion. And if you’re this cavalier about $30 billion, imagine how cavalier you are about the three trillion. Then there’s the, okay, $30 billion. Is $30 billion a lot of the federal budget in percentage? No, it’s not, but $30 billion divided by, do the math, $30 billion divided by let’s say 300 million taxpayers. What’s that math expert?
It’s $30 billion. And the press is in on this too, and then the experts are like, “Well, it doesn’t matter because it’s rounding error.” No, it’s $30 billion. And if you’re this cavalier about $30 billion, imagine how cavalier you are about the three trillion. Then there’s the, okay, $30 billion. Is $30 billion a lot of the federal budget in percentage? No, it’s not, but $30 billion divided by, do the math, $30 billion divided by let’s say 300 million taxpayers. What’s that math expert?
Lex Fridman
$100.
$100.
Marc Andreessen
$100 per taxpayer per year. Okay, so $100 to an ordinary person working hard every day to make money and provide for their kids. $100 is a meal out, it’s a trip to the amusement park. It’s the ability to buy additional educational materials. It’s the ability to have a babysitter to be able to have a romantic relationship with your wife. There’s 100 things that that person can do with $100 that they’re not doing because it’s going to some bull shit program that is being basically where the money’s being looted out in the form of just ridiculous ridiculousness and graft. And so the idea that that $30 billion program is not something that is a very important thing to go after, the level of contempt for the taxpayer is just off the charts.
$100 per taxpayer per year. Okay, so $100 to an ordinary person working hard every day to make money and provide for their kids. $100 is a meal out, it’s a trip to the amusement park. It’s the ability to buy additional educational materials. It’s the ability to have a babysitter to be able to have a romantic relationship with your wife. There’s 100 things that that person can do with $100 that they’re not doing because it’s going to some bull shit program that is being basically where the money’s being looted out in the form of just ridiculous ridiculousness and graft. And so the idea that that $30 billion program is not something that is a very important thing to go after, the level of contempt for the taxpayer is just off the charts.
And then that’s just one of those programs, there’s 100 of those programs. And they’re all just like that, it’s not like any of this stuff is running well. The one thing we know is that none of this stuff is running well, we know that for sure. And we know these people aren’t showing up to work, and we know that all this crazy stuff is happening. Do you remember Elon’s story of what got the Amish to turn out to vote in Pennsylvania? Oh, okay. So Pennsylvania is like a wonderful state, great history. It has these cities like Philadelphia that have descended other cities into just complete chaos, violent madness, and death. And the federal government has just let it happen, these incredibly violent places.
And so the Biden administration decided that the big pressing law enforcement thing that they needed to do in Pennsylvania was that they needed to start raiding Amish farms to prevent them from selling raw milk with armed raids. And it turns out it really pissed off the Amish. It turns out they weren’t willing to drive to the polling places because they don’t have cars, but if you came and got them, they would go and they would vote. And that’s one of the reasons why Trump won. Anyway, so the law enforcement agencies are off working on crazy things. The system’s not working. And so you add up, just pick $130 billion programs, all right, now you’re okay. Math major, 100 times 100.
Lex Fridman
10,000.
10,000.
Marc Andreessen
$10,000, okay. $10,000 per tax payer per year.
$10,000, okay. $10,000 per tax payer per year.
Lex Fridman
But it’s also not just about money, obviously money is a hugely important thing, but it’s the cavalier attitude that then in the ripple effect of that, it makes it so nobody wants to work in government and be productive. It makes it so that it breeds corruption, it breeds laziness. It breeds secrecy because you don’t want to be transparent about having done nothing all year, all this kind of stuff. And you now want to reverse that so that it will be exciting for the future to work in government, because the amazing thing if you’re the steelman government is you can do shit at scale. You have money and you can directly impact people’s lives in a positive sense at scale. It’s super exciting. As long as there’s no bureaucracy that slows you down, or not huge amounts of bureaucracy that slows you down significantly.
But it’s also not just about money, obviously money is a hugely important thing, but it’s the cavalier attitude that then in the ripple effect of that, it makes it so nobody wants to work in government and be productive. It makes it so that it breeds corruption, it breeds laziness. It breeds secrecy because you don’t want to be transparent about having done nothing all year, all this kind of stuff. And you now want to reverse that so that it will be exciting for the future to work in government, because the amazing thing if you’re the steelman government is you can do shit at scale. You have money and you can directly impact people’s lives in a positive sense at scale. It’s super exciting. As long as there’s no bureaucracy that slows you down, or not huge amounts of bureaucracy that slows you down significantly.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. So here’s the trick, this blew my mind. Because once you open the hellmouth of looking into the federal budget, you learn all kinds of things. So there is a term of art in government called impoundment. So if you’re like me, you’ve learned this the hard way when your car has been impounded. The government meaning of impoundment, the federal budget meaning is a different meaning. Impoundment is as follows. The constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. So the executive branch goes to Congress, says, “We need money X.” Congress does their thing. They come back and they say, “You can have money Y.” The money’s appropriated from Congress, the executive branch spends it on the military or whatever they spend it on, or on roads to nowhere or charging stations to nowhere or whatever. And what’s in the constitution is the Congress appropriates the money. Over the last 60 years, there has been an additional interpretation of appropriations applied by the courts and by the system, which is the executive branch not only needs Congress to appropriate X amount of money, the executive branch is not allowed to underspend.
Yeah. So here’s the trick, this blew my mind. Because once you open the hellmouth of looking into the federal budget, you learn all kinds of things. So there is a term of art in government called impoundment. So if you’re like me, you’ve learned this the hard way when your car has been impounded. The government meaning of impoundment, the federal budget meaning is a different meaning. Impoundment is as follows. The constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. So the executive branch goes to Congress, says, “We need money X.” Congress does their thing. They come back and they say, “You can have money Y.” The money’s appropriated from Congress, the executive branch spends it on the military or whatever they spend it on, or on roads to nowhere or charging stations to nowhere or whatever. And what’s in the constitution is the Congress appropriates the money. Over the last 60 years, there has been an additional interpretation of appropriations applied by the courts and by the system, which is the executive branch not only needs Congress to appropriate X amount of money, the executive branch is not allowed to underspend.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’m aware of this. I’m aware of this.
Yeah, I’m aware of this. I’m aware of this.
Marc Andreessen
And so there’s this thing that happens in Washington at the end of every fiscal year, which is September 30th, and it’s the great budget flush. And any remaining money that’s in the system that they don’t know how to productively spend, they deliberately spend it unproductively, to the tune of hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. A president that doesn’t want to spend the money can’t not spend it.
And so there’s this thing that happens in Washington at the end of every fiscal year, which is September 30th, and it’s the great budget flush. And any remaining money that’s in the system that they don’t know how to productively spend, they deliberately spend it unproductively, to the tune of hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. A president that doesn’t want to spend the money can’t not spend it.
Like, okay, A, that’s not what’s in the constitution. And there’s actually quite a good Wikipedia page that goes through the great debate on this that’s played out in the legal world over the last 60 years. And basically, if you look at this with anything resembling I think an open mind, you’re like, “All right, this is not what the founders meant.” And then number two, again, we go back to this thing of contempt. Can you imagine showing up and running the government like that and thinking that you’re doing the right thing, and not going home at night and thinking that you’ve sold your soul? I actually think you headed it a really good point, which is it’s even unfair to the people who have to execute this because it makes them bad people, and they didn’t start out wanting to be bad people. And so there is stuff like this.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, everywhere.
Yeah, everywhere.
Marc Andreessen
Everywhere. And so we’ll see how far these guys get. I am extremely encouraged, what I’ve seen so far.
Everywhere. And so we’ll see how far these guys get. I am extremely encouraged, what I’ve seen so far.
H1B and immigration
Lex Fridman
It seems like a lot of people will try to slow them down, but yeah, I hope they get far. Another difficult topic, immigration. What’s your take on the, let’s say, heated H-1B visa debate that’s going on online and legal immigration in general?
It seems like a lot of people will try to slow them down, but yeah, I hope they get far. Another difficult topic, immigration. What’s your take on the, let’s say, heated H-1B visa debate that’s going on online and legal immigration in general?
Marc Andreessen
I should start by saying I am not involved in any aspect of government policy on this. I’m not planning to be, this is not an issue that I’m working on or that I’m going to work on. This is not part of the agenda of what the firm is doing, my firm is doing. So I’m not in the new administration or the government, I’m not planning to be, so purely just personal opinion. So I would say I would describe this as I have a complex or nuanced, hopefully nuanced view on this issue that’s maybe a little bit different than what a lot of my peers have. And I thought about this, I didn’t say anything about it all the way through the big debate over Christmas, but I thought about it a lot and read everything. I think what I realized is that I just have a very different perspective on some of these things, and the reason is because of the combination of where I came from and then where I ended up.
I should start by saying I am not involved in any aspect of government policy on this. I’m not planning to be, this is not an issue that I’m working on or that I’m going to work on. This is not part of the agenda of what the firm is doing, my firm is doing. So I’m not in the new administration or the government, I’m not planning to be, so purely just personal opinion. So I would say I would describe this as I have a complex or nuanced, hopefully nuanced view on this issue that’s maybe a little bit different than what a lot of my peers have. And I thought about this, I didn’t say anything about it all the way through the big debate over Christmas, but I thought about it a lot and read everything. I think what I realized is that I just have a very different perspective on some of these things, and the reason is because of the combination of where I came from and then where I ended up.
Let’s start with this, where I ended up, in Silicon Valley, and I have made the pro high-skilled immigration argument many, many times, the H-1B argument many times. In past lives, I’ve been in D.C. many times arguing with prior administrations about this, always on the side of trying to get more H-1B’s and trying to get more high-skilled immigration. And I think that argument is very strong and very solid, and has paid off for the US in many, many ways. And we can go through it, but I think it’s the argument everybody already knows, it’s like the stock. You take any Silicon Valley person, you press the button and they tell you why we need to brain drain the world to get more H-1B’s. So everybody gets that argument.
Lex Fridman
So it’s basically, just to summarize, it’s a mechanism by which you can get super smart people from the rest of the world, import them in, keep them here to increase the productivity of the US companies.
So it’s basically, just to summarize, it’s a mechanism by which you can get super smart people from the rest of the world, import them in, keep them here to increase the productivity of the US companies.
Marc Andreessen
And then it’s not just good for them and it’s not just good for Silicon Valley or the tech industry, it’s good for the country because they then create new companies and create new technologies and create new industries that then create many more jobs for Americans, native born Americans, than would’ve previously existed. And so it’s a positive, some flywheel thing where everybody wins. Everybody wins, there are no trade-offs, it’s all absolutely glorious in all directions. There cannot possibly be a moral argument against it under any circumstances. Anybody who argues against it is obviously doing so from a position of racism, is probably a fascist and a Nazi. That’s the thing, and like I said, I’ve made that argument many times. I’m very comfortable with that argument. And then I’d also say, look, I would say number one, I believe a lot of it, I’ll talk about the parts I don’t believe, but I believe a lot of it.
And then it’s not just good for them and it’s not just good for Silicon Valley or the tech industry, it’s good for the country because they then create new companies and create new technologies and create new industries that then create many more jobs for Americans, native born Americans, than would’ve previously existed. And so it’s a positive, some flywheel thing where everybody wins. Everybody wins, there are no trade-offs, it’s all absolutely glorious in all directions. There cannot possibly be a moral argument against it under any circumstances. Anybody who argues against it is obviously doing so from a position of racism, is probably a fascist and a Nazi. That’s the thing, and like I said, I’ve made that argument many times. I’m very comfortable with that argument. And then I’d also say, look, I would say number one, I believe a lot of it, I’ll talk about the parts I don’t believe, but I believe a lot of it.
And then the other part is, look, I benefit every day. I always describe it as I work in the United Nations, my own firm and our founders and our companies and the industry and my friends are just this amazing panoply, cornucopia of people from all over the world. And I’ve worked, I don’t know, at this point with people from, it’s got to be, I don’t know, 80 countries or something, and hopefully over time it’ll be the rest as well. And it’s been amazing, and they’ve done many of the most important things in my industry and it’s been really remarkable. So that’s all good. And then there’s just the practical version of the argument, which is we are the main place these people get educated anyway. The best and the brightest tend to come here to get educated. And so this is the old Mitt Romney, staple a green card to maybe not every university degree, but every technical degree. Maybe the sociologists we could quibble about, but the roboticists for sure, for sure. For sure, we can all agree that-
Lex Fridman
At least I won you over on something today.
At least I won you over on something today.
Marc Andreessen
Well, no, I’m exaggerating for effect.
Well, no, I’m exaggerating for effect.
Lex Fridman
And I lost you, I had you for half a second.
And I lost you, I had you for half a second.
Marc Andreessen
I haven’t gotten to the other side of the argument yet.
I haven’t gotten to the other side of the argument yet.
Lex Fridman
Okay, thank you.
Okay, thank you.
Marc Andreessen
So surely we can all agree that we need to staple a green card.
So surely we can all agree that we need to staple a green card.
Lex Fridman
The rollercoaster is going up.
The rollercoaster is going up.
Marc Andreessen
The rollercoaster is ratcheting slowly up. So yeah, so surely we can all agree that the roboticists should all get green cards. And again, there’s a lot of merit to that, obviously. Look, we want the US to be the world leader in robotics. What’s step one to being the world leader in robotics is have all the great robotics people. Unlike the underpants, it’s like a very straightforward formula. All right, that’s all well and good, all right, but it gets a little bit more complicated because there is a argument that’s right underneath that that you also hear from these same people. And I have made this argument myself many times, which is we need to do this because we don’t have enough people in the US who can do it otherwise. We have all these unfilled jobs, we’ve got all these companies that wouldn’t exist.
The rollercoaster is ratcheting slowly up. So yeah, so surely we can all agree that the roboticists should all get green cards. And again, there’s a lot of merit to that, obviously. Look, we want the US to be the world leader in robotics. What’s step one to being the world leader in robotics is have all the great robotics people. Unlike the underpants, it’s like a very straightforward formula. All right, that’s all well and good, all right, but it gets a little bit more complicated because there is a argument that’s right underneath that that you also hear from these same people. And I have made this argument myself many times, which is we need to do this because we don’t have enough people in the US who can do it otherwise. We have all these unfilled jobs, we’ve got all these companies that wouldn’t exist.
We don’t have enough good founders, we don’t have enough engineers, we don’t have enough scientists. Or then the next version of the argument below that is our education system is not good enough to generate those people, which is a weird argument by the way. Because our education system is good enough for foreigners to be able to come here preferentially in a very large number of cases, but somehow not good enough to educate our own native foreign people. So there’s little cracks in the matrix that you can stick your fingernail into and wonder about and we’ll come back to that one. But at least, yes, our education system has its flaws. And then underneath that is the argument that Vivek made, which is we have cultural rot in the country and native-born people in the country don’t work hard enough, and spend too much time watching TV and TikTok and don’t spend enough time studying differential equations.
And again, it’s like, all right, yeah, there’s a fair amount to that. There’s a lot of American culture that is, there’s a lot of frivolity, we have well-documented social issues on many fronts, many things that cut against having a culture of just straightforward, high achievement and effort and striving. But anyway, those are the basic arguments. But then I have this other side of my personality and thought process, which is, well, I grew up in a small farming town of rural Wisconsin, the rural Midwest, and it’s interesting, there’s not a lot of people who make it from rural Wisconsin to high tech.
And so it’s like, all right, why is that exactly? And I know this, I’m an aberration. I was the only one from anybody I ever knew who ever did this. I know what an aberration I am and I know exactly how that aberration happened, and it’s a very unusual set of steps, including many that were just luck. But there is in no sense a talent flow from rural Wisconsin into high tech, like not at all. There is also in no sense a talent flow from the rest of the Midwest into high tech. There is no talent flow from the south into high tech. There is no flow from the Sunbelt into high tech. There’s no flow from the deep south into high tech. Literally, it’s like the blanks. There’s this whole section of the country where the people just for some reason don’t end up in tech.
Now, that’s a little bit strange, because these are the people who put a man on the moon. These are the people who built the World War II War Machine. These are the people, at least their ancestors are the people who built the second industrial revolution, and built the railroads and built the telephone network and built logistics and transportation in the auto industry. The auto industry was built in Cleveland and Detroit. And so at least these people’s parents and grandparents and great grandparents somehow had the wherewithal to build all of these amazing things, invent all these things.
And then there’s many, many, many, many stories in the history of American invention and innovation and capitalism, where you had people who grew up in the middle of nowhere, Philo Farnsworth who invented the television, and just tons and tons of others, endless stories like this. Now you have a puzzle and the conundrum, which is like, okay, what is happening on the blank spot of the map? And then of course, you also can’t help noticing that the blank spot on the map, the Midwest, the South, you’ve also just defined Trump country, the Trump voter base.
And it’s like, oh, well, that’s interesting. How did that happen? And so either you really, really, really have to believe the very, very strong version of the Vivek thesis or something, where you have to believe that that basically culture, the whole civilization in the middle of the country and the south of the country is so deeply flawed, either inherently flawed or culturally flawed, such that for whatever reason, they’re not able to do the things that their parents and grandparents were able to do, and that their peers are able to do. Or something else is happening. Would you care to guess on what else is happening?
Lex Fridman
You mean what, affirmative action?
You mean what, affirmative action?
Marc Andreessen
Affirmative action. Think about this, this is very entertaining. What are the three things that we know about affirmative action? It is absolutely 100% necessary, however, it cannot explain the success of any one individual, nor does it have any victims at all.
Affirmative action. Think about this, this is very entertaining. What are the three things that we know about affirmative action? It is absolutely 100% necessary, however, it cannot explain the success of any one individual, nor does it have any victims at all.
Lex Fridman
That could explain maybe disproportionate, but surely it doesn’t explain why you’re probably the only person in Silicon Valley from Wisconsin.
That could explain maybe disproportionate, but surely it doesn’t explain why you’re probably the only person in Silicon Valley from Wisconsin.
Marc Andreessen
What educational institution in the last 60 years has wanted farm boys from Wisconsin?
What educational institution in the last 60 years has wanted farm boys from Wisconsin?
Lex Fridman
But what institution rejected farm boys from Wisconsin?
But what institution rejected farm boys from Wisconsin?
Marc Andreessen
All of them.
All of them.
Lex Fridman
All of them.
All of them.
Marc Andreessen
Of course. Okay, so we know this, we know this. The reason we know this is because of the Harvard and UNC Supreme Court cases. This was three years ago, these were big court cases. Because the idea of affirmative action has been litigated for many, many, many years and through many court cases, and the Supreme Court repeatedly in the past had upheld that it was a completely legitimate thing to do. And there’s basically two categories of affirmative action that really matter. One is the admissions into educational institutions and then the other is jobs, getting hired. Those are the two biggest areas. The education one is super potent, has been a super potent political issue for a very long time for all… People have written and talked about this for many decades, I don’t need to go through it. There’s many arguments for why it’s important, there’s many arguments as to how it could backfire. It’s been this thing.
Of course. Okay, so we know this, we know this. The reason we know this is because of the Harvard and UNC Supreme Court cases. This was three years ago, these were big court cases. Because the idea of affirmative action has been litigated for many, many, many years and through many court cases, and the Supreme Court repeatedly in the past had upheld that it was a completely legitimate thing to do. And there’s basically two categories of affirmative action that really matter. One is the admissions into educational institutions and then the other is jobs, getting hired. Those are the two biggest areas. The education one is super potent, has been a super potent political issue for a very long time for all… People have written and talked about this for many decades, I don’t need to go through it. There’s many arguments for why it’s important, there’s many arguments as to how it could backfire. It’s been this thing.
But the Supreme Court upheld it for a very long time. The most recent ruling, I’m not a lawyer, I don’t have the exact reference in my head, but there was a case in 2003 that said that Sandra Day O’Connor famously wrote that although it had been 30 years of affirmative action and although it was not working remotely as it had been intended, she said that, well, basically we need to try it for another 25 years. But she said basically as a message to future Supreme Court justices, if it hasn’t resolved basically the issues it’s intended to resolve within 25 years, then we should probably call it off. By the way, we’re coming up on the 25 years, it’s a couple of years away. The Supreme Court just had these cases, it’s a Harvard case and I think a University of North Carolina case.
And what’s interesting about those cases is the lawyers in those cases put a tremendous amount of evidence into the record of how the admissions decisions actually happen at Harvard and happen at UNC. And it is like every bit as cartoonishly garish and racist as you could possibly imagine, because it’s a ring of power. And if you’re an admissions officer at a private university or an administrator, you have unlimited power to do what you want, and you can justify any of it under any of these rules or systems. And up until these cases, it had been a black box where you didn’t have to explain yourself and show your work. And what the Harvard and UNC cases did is they basically required showing the work. And there was all kinds of phenomenal detail, number one is there were text messages in there that will just curl your hair, of students being spoken of and just crude racial stereotypes that would just make you want to jump out the window. It’s horrible stuff.
But also, there was statistical information. And of course, the big statistical kicker to the whole thing is that at top institutions, it’s common for different ethnic groups to have different cutoffs for SAT that are as wide as 400 points. So different groups. So specifically Asians need to perform at 400 SAT points higher than other ethnicities in order to actually get admitted into these. White people are a part of this, but Asians are a very big part of this. And actually the Harvard case is actually brought by an activist on behalf of actually the Asian students who are being turned away. And it’s the cliche now in the valley and in the medical community, which is like, if you want a super genius you hire an Asian from Harvard, because they are guaranteed to be freaking Einstein. Because if they weren’t, they were never getting admitted. Almost all the qualified Asians get turned away.
So they’ve been running this, it’s a very, very explicit, very, very clear program. This, of course, has been a third rail of things that people are not supposed to discuss under any circumstances. The thing that has really changed the tenor on this is I think two things. Number one, those Supreme Court cases, the Supreme Court ruled that they can no longer do that. I will tell you, I don’t believe there’s a single education institution in America that is conforming with the Supreme Court ruling, I think they’re all flagrantly ignoring it. And we could talk about that.
Lex Fridman
Mostly because of momentum probably, or what?
Mostly because of momentum probably, or what?
Marc Andreessen
They are trying to make the world a better place. They’re trying to solve all these social problems, They are trying to have diverse student populations. They are trying to live up to the expectations of their donors. They’re trying to make their faculty happy. They are trying to have their friends and family think that they’re good people. They’re trying to have the press write nice things about them. It’s nearly impossible for them. And to be clear, nobody has been fired from an admissions office for 25 years and prior, what the Supreme Court now is ruled to be illegality. And so they’re all the same people under the exact same pressures. And so the numbers are moving a little bit, but I don’t know anybody in the system who thinks that they are complying with Supreme Court. Like who’s in charge, in the rank ordering of who rules who, the university’s rule the Supreme Court way more than the Supreme Court rules the universities.
They are trying to make the world a better place. They’re trying to solve all these social problems, They are trying to have diverse student populations. They are trying to live up to the expectations of their donors. They’re trying to make their faculty happy. They are trying to have their friends and family think that they’re good people. They’re trying to have the press write nice things about them. It’s nearly impossible for them. And to be clear, nobody has been fired from an admissions office for 25 years and prior, what the Supreme Court now is ruled to be illegality. And so they’re all the same people under the exact same pressures. And so the numbers are moving a little bit, but I don’t know anybody in the system who thinks that they are complying with Supreme Court. Like who’s in charge, in the rank ordering of who rules who, the university’s rule the Supreme Court way more than the Supreme Court rules the universities.
Well, another example of that is I think that every sitting member of the Supreme Court right now went to either Harvard or Yale, the level of incestuousness here is… Anyway, so there’s that. And so this has been running for a very long time. So one is the Harvard and UNC cases gave up the game, number one, or at least showed what the mechanism was. And then number two, the other thing is obviously the aftermath of October 7th, and what we discovered was happening with Jewish applicants and what was happening at all the top institutions for Jewish applicants was they were being managed down, either being actively managed down as a percentage of the base. And let’s say I’ve heard reports of extremely explicit basically plans to manage the Jewish admissions down to their representative percentage of the US population, which is 2%. And there’s a whole backstory here, which is 100 years ago, Jews were not admitted into a lot of these institutions, and then there was a big campaign to get them in.
Once they could get in, they immediately became 30% of these institutions because there are so many smart, talented Jews. So it went from 0% to 30%, and then the most recent generation of leadership has been trying to get it done to 2%. And a lot of Jewish people, at least a lot of Jewish people I know, they kind of knew this was happening but they discovered it the hard way after October 7th. So basically the Supreme Court case meant that you could address this in terms of the Asian victims. The October 7th meant that you could address it in terms of the Jewish victims. And for sure, both of those groups are being systematically excluded. And then of course, there’s the thing that you basically can’t talk about, which is all the white people are being excluded. And then it turns out it’s also happening to black people, and this is the thing that blew my freaking mind when I found out about it.
So I just assumed that this was great news for American Blacks, because obviously if Whites, Asians, and Jews are being excluded, then the whole point of this in the beginning was to get the Black population up, and so this must be great for American Blacks. So then I discovered this New York Times article from 2004 called Blacks are Being Admitted into Top Schools at Greater Numbers, but which ones? And by the way, this is in the New York Times, this is not in, whatever, The National Review, this is New York Times, 2004. And the two authorities that were quoted in the story are Henry Louis Gates, who’s the dean of the African-American Studies community in the United States, super brilliant guy. And then Lani Guinier, she was a potential Supreme Court appointee under, I think she was a close friend of Hillary Clinton.
And there was for a long time, she was on the short list for Supreme Court. So one of the top jurists, lawyers in the country, but both Black, legendarily successful in the academic and legal worlds and Black. And they are quoted as the authorities in this story, and the story that they tell, it’s actually amazing. And by the way, it’s happening today in education institutions and it’s happening in companies, and you can see it all over the place, and the government. Which is at least at that time, the number was half of the Black admits into a place like Harvard were not American-born Blacks, they were foreign-born Blacks, specifically Northern African, generally Nigerian or West Indian.
And by the way, many Nigerians and Northern Africans have come to the US and have been very successful. Nigerian-Americans as a group way outperform, they’re just a super smart cohort of people. And then West Indian Blacks in the US are incredibly successful. Most recently, by the way, Kamala Harris, as well as Colin Powell, just two examples of that. And so basically what Henry Louis Gates and Lani Guinier said in the story is Harvard is basically struggling to either, whatever it was, identify, recruit, make successful, whatever it was, American-born native Blacks, and so therefore they were using high-skill immigration as an escape hatch to go get Blacks from other countries. And then this was 2004 when you could discuss such things, obviously that is a topic that nobody has discussed since, it has sailed on. All of the DEI programs of the last 20 years have had this exact characteristic.
There’s large numbers of Black people in America who are fully aware of this and are like, “It’s obviously not us that are getting these slots, we’re literally competing with people who are being imported.” And if you believe in the basis of affirmative action, you were trying to make up for historical injustice of American Black slavery. So the idea that you import somebody from Nigeria that never experienced that is tremendously insulting to Black Americans. Anyway, so you can see where I’m heading with this. We have been in a 60-year social engineering experiment to exclude native-born people from the educational slots and jobs that high-skill immigration has been funneling foreigners into. And so it turns out it’s not a victim-free thing, there’s 100%, there’s victims. Because why? There’s only so many, for sure there’s only so many education slots, and then for sure, there’s only so many of these jobs. Google only hires so many, whatever, level seven engineers. And so that’s the other side of it, and so you’re a farm boy in Wisconsin.
Lex Fridman
So, that’s the other side of it. And so, you’re a farm boy in Wisconsin, or a Black American whose ancestors arrived here on a slave ship, 300 years ago, in Louisiana, or a Cambodian immigrant in the Bronx, and you are a kid, or a Jewish immigrant, or from a very successful Jewish family, and for three generations, you and your parents and grandparents went to Harvard, and what all of those groups know is the system that has been created is not for them. It’s designed specifically to exclude them, and then what happens is all of these tech people show up in public and say, yeah, let’s bring in more foreigners. So, anyway, so the short version of it is, you can’t anymore, I don’t think, just have the “high-skilled immigration,” conversation for either education or for employment without also having the DEI conversation.
So, that’s the other side of it. And so, you’re a farm boy in Wisconsin, or a Black American whose ancestors arrived here on a slave ship, 300 years ago, in Louisiana, or a Cambodian immigrant in the Bronx, and you are a kid, or a Jewish immigrant, or from a very successful Jewish family, and for three generations, you and your parents and grandparents went to Harvard, and what all of those groups know is the system that has been created is not for them. It’s designed specifically to exclude them, and then what happens is all of these tech people show up in public and say, yeah, let’s bring in more foreigners. So, anyway, so the short version of it is, you can’t anymore, I don’t think, just have the “high-skilled immigration,” conversation for either education or for employment without also having the DEI conversation.
And then DEI is just another word for affirmative action, so it’s the affirmative action conversation. And you need to actually deal with this at substance and to see what’s actually happening to people, you needed to join these topics. And I think it is much harder to make the moral claim for high-skilled immigration given the extent to which DEI took over both the education process and the hiring process.
Marc Andreessen
So, first of all, that was brilliantly laid out, the nuance of it. So, just to understand, it’s not so much a criticism of H-1B, high-skilled immigration, it’s that there needs to be more people saying, yay, we need more American- born hires.
So, first of all, that was brilliantly laid out, the nuance of it. So, just to understand, it’s not so much a criticism of H-1B, high-skilled immigration, it’s that there needs to be more people saying, yay, we need more American- born hires.
Lex Fridman
So, I spent the entire Christmas holiday reading every message on this and not saying anything, and what I was… Which you know me well enough to know that’s a serious level of-
So, I spent the entire Christmas holiday reading every message on this and not saying anything, and what I was… Which you know me well enough to know that’s a serious level of-
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, that was very Zen.
Yeah, that was very Zen.
Lex Fridman
Yes, thank you, thank you. No, it wasn’t, there was tremendous rage on the other side of it, but I suppressed it. So, I was waiting for the dog that didn’t bark, and the dog that didn’t bark was I did not… And tell me if you saw one. I did not see a single example of somebody pounding the table for more high-skilled immigration, who was also pounding the table to go get more smart kids who are already here into these educational institutions and into these jobs. I didn’t see a single one.
Yes, thank you, thank you. No, it wasn’t, there was tremendous rage on the other side of it, but I suppressed it. So, I was waiting for the dog that didn’t bark, and the dog that didn’t bark was I did not… And tell me if you saw one. I did not see a single example of somebody pounding the table for more high-skilled immigration, who was also pounding the table to go get more smart kids who are already here into these educational institutions and into these jobs. I didn’t see a single one.
Marc Andreessen
That’s true, I think I agree with that. There really was a divide.
That’s true, I think I agree with that. There really was a divide.
Lex Fridman
But it was literally, it was like the proponents of high-skilled immigrant… And again, this was me for a very long time. I kind of took myself by surprise on this because I had the much, say, simpler version of this story for a very long… Like I said, I’ve been in Washington many times under past presidents, lobbying for this. By the way, never made any progress, which we could talk about, it never actually worked. But I’ve been on the other side of this one. But I was literally sitting there being like, all right, which of these super geniuses, many of whom by the way are very successful, high-skilled immigrants or children of high-skilled immigrants, which of these super geniuses are going to say, actually we have this incredible talent source here in the country? Which again, to be clear, I’m not talking about white people, I’m talking about native-born Americans, whites, Asians, Jews, Blacks, for sure. For sure, for sure, those four groups,
But it was literally, it was like the proponents of high-skilled immigrant… And again, this was me for a very long time. I kind of took myself by surprise on this because I had the much, say, simpler version of this story for a very long… Like I said, I’ve been in Washington many times under past presidents, lobbying for this. By the way, never made any progress, which we could talk about, it never actually worked. But I’ve been on the other side of this one. But I was literally sitting there being like, all right, which of these super geniuses, many of whom by the way are very successful, high-skilled immigrants or children of high-skilled immigrants, which of these super geniuses are going to say, actually we have this incredible talent source here in the country? Which again, to be clear, I’m not talking about white people, I’m talking about native-born Americans, whites, Asians, Jews, Blacks, for sure. For sure, for sure, those four groups,
Marc Andreessen
But also white people.
But also white people.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and also white people.
Yeah, and also white people.
Marc Andreessen
People that are making the case for American-born hires are usually not also supporting H-1B. It’s an extreme divide, and those people, they’re making that case are often not making it in a way that’s… Making it in quite a radical way, let’s put it this way.
People that are making the case for American-born hires are usually not also supporting H-1B. It’s an extreme divide, and those people, they’re making that case are often not making it in a way that’s… Making it in quite a radical way, let’s put it this way.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. But you have this interesting thing, you have a split between the sides that I’ve noticed, which is one side has all of the experts. And I’m using air quote for people listening to audio, I’m making quotes in the air with my fingers as vigorously as I can. One side has all the certified experts, the other side just has a bunch of people who are like, they know that something is wrong and they don’t quite know how to explain it. And what was so unusual about the Harvard UNC cases, by the way, in front of the Supreme Court is they actually had sophisticated lawyers for the first time in a long time actually put all this evidence together and actually put it in the public record. They actually had experts, which is just really rare.
Yeah, yeah. But you have this interesting thing, you have a split between the sides that I’ve noticed, which is one side has all of the experts. And I’m using air quote for people listening to audio, I’m making quotes in the air with my fingers as vigorously as I can. One side has all the certified experts, the other side just has a bunch of people who are like, they know that something is wrong and they don’t quite know how to explain it. And what was so unusual about the Harvard UNC cases, by the way, in front of the Supreme Court is they actually had sophisticated lawyers for the first time in a long time actually put all this evidence together and actually put it in the public record. They actually had experts, which is just really rare.
Generally what you get is you get… Because if you don’t have experts, what do you have? You know something is wrong, but you have primarily an emotional response. You feel it, but can you put it into the words and tables and charts that a certified expert can? No, you can’t, that’s not who you are. That doesn’t mean that you’re wrong, and it also doesn’t mean that you have less of a moral stance. And so, it’s just like, all right… Now, by the way, look, I think there are ways to square the circle, I think there’s a way to have our cake and eat it too, I think there’d be many ways to resolve this. I think, again, I think the way to do it is to look at these issues combined, look at DEI combined with high-skilled immigration. It so happens that DEI is under much more scrutiny today than it has been for probably 20 years, affirmative action is. The Supreme Court did just rule that it is not legal for universities to do that, they are still doing it, but they should stop.
And then, there are more and more, you’ve seen more companies now also ditching their DEI programs, in part… That’s happening for a bunch of reasons, but it’s happening in part because a lot of corporate lawyers will tell you that the Supreme Court rulings in education either already apply to businesses, or it just is a clear foreshadowing the Supreme Court will rule on new cases that will ban in businesses. And so, there is a moment here to be able to look at this on both sides. Let me add one more nuance to it though, that makes it even more complicated. So, the cliché is we’re going to brain drain the world, you’ve heard that? We’re going to take all the smart people from all over the world, we’re going to bring them here, we’re going to educate them, and then we’re going to keep them, and then they’re going to raise their families here, create businesses here, create jobs here, right?
Marc Andreessen
In the cliché, that’s a super positive thing.
In the cliché, that’s a super positive thing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Okay, so what happens to the rest of the world?
Yeah. Okay, so what happens to the rest of the world?
Marc Andreessen
They lose?
They lose?
Lex Fridman
Well, how fungible are people? How many highly ambitious, highly conscientious, highly energetic, high achieving, high IQ, super geniuses are there in the world? And if there’s a lot, that’s great, but if there just aren’t that many, and they all come here, and they aren’t where they would be otherwise, what happens to all those other places? So, it’s almost impossible for us here to have that conversation, in part because we become incredibly uncomfortable as a society talking about the fact that people aren’t just simply all the same, which is a whole thing we could talk about, but also we are purely the beneficiary of this effect. We are brain draining the world, not the other way around. There’s only four… So, if you look at the flow of high-skilled immigration over time, there’s only four permanent sinks of high-skilled immigration places people go. It’s the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia.
Well, how fungible are people? How many highly ambitious, highly conscientious, highly energetic, high achieving, high IQ, super geniuses are there in the world? And if there’s a lot, that’s great, but if there just aren’t that many, and they all come here, and they aren’t where they would be otherwise, what happens to all those other places? So, it’s almost impossible for us here to have that conversation, in part because we become incredibly uncomfortable as a society talking about the fact that people aren’t just simply all the same, which is a whole thing we could talk about, but also we are purely the beneficiary of this effect. We are brain draining the world, not the other way around. There’s only four… So, if you look at the flow of high-skilled immigration over time, there’s only four permanent sinks of high-skilled immigration places people go. It’s the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia.
Marc Andreessen
Oh, Australia.
Oh, Australia.
Lex Fridman
It’s four of the five, five eyes. It’s the major Anglosphere countries. And so, for those countries, this seems like a no-lose proposition, it’s all the other countries that, basically, what we four countries have been doing is draining all the smart people out. It’s actually much easier for people in Europe to talk about this I’ve discovered, because the Eurozone is, whatever, 28 countries, and within the Eurozone, the high-skilled people over time have been migrating to originally the UK, but also specifically I think it’s the Netherlands, Germany, and France. But specifically, they’ve been migrating out of the peripheral Eurozone countries. And the one where this really hit the fan was in Greece. So, Greece falls into chaos, disaster, and then you’re running the government in Greece and you’re trying to figure out how to put an economic development plan together, all of your smart young kids have left, what are you going to do?
It’s four of the five, five eyes. It’s the major Anglosphere countries. And so, for those countries, this seems like a no-lose proposition, it’s all the other countries that, basically, what we four countries have been doing is draining all the smart people out. It’s actually much easier for people in Europe to talk about this I’ve discovered, because the Eurozone is, whatever, 28 countries, and within the Eurozone, the high-skilled people over time have been migrating to originally the UK, but also specifically I think it’s the Netherlands, Germany, and France. But specifically, they’ve been migrating out of the peripheral Eurozone countries. And the one where this really hit the fan was in Greece. So, Greece falls into chaos, disaster, and then you’re running the government in Greece and you’re trying to figure out how to put an economic development plan together, all of your smart young kids have left, what are you going to do?
By the way, this is a potential… I know you care a lot about Ukraine, this is a potential crisis for Ukraine. In part because of this, because we enthusiastically recruit Ukrainians, of course, and so we’ve been brain draining Ukraine for a long time, but also, of course, war does tend to cause people to migrate out. And so, when it comes time for Ukraine to rebuild as a peaceful country, is it going to have the talent base even that it had five years ago, is a very big and important question. By the way, Russia, we have brain drained a lot of really smart people out of Russia, a lot of them are here, over the last 30 years. And so, there’s this thing, it’s actually really funny if you think about it, the one thing that we know to be the height of absolute evil that the West ever did was colonization and resource extraction.
So, we know the height of absolute evil was when the Portuguese and the English and everybody else went and had these colonies, and then went in and we took all the oil, and we took all the diamonds, or we took all the whatever, lithium or whatever it is. Well, for some reason we realized that that’s a deeply evil thing to do when it’s a physical resource, when it’s a non-conscious physical matter, for some reason we think it’s completely morally acceptable to do it with human capital. In fact, we think it’s glorious and beautiful and wonderful and the great flowering of peace and harmony and moral justice of our time to do it, and we don’t think for one second what we’re doing to the countries that we’re pulling all these people out of.
And this is one of these things, I don’t know, maybe we’re just going to live in this delusional state forever, and we’ll just keep doing it, and it’ll keep benefiting us, and we just won’t care what happens, but I think there may come… This is one of these submarines 10 feet under the water line, I think it’s just a matter of time until people suddenly realize, oh my God, what are we doing? We need the rest of the world to succeed too, we need these other countries to flourish. We don’t want to be the only successful country in the middle of just complete chaos and disaster, and we just extract and we extract and we extract, and we don’t think twice about it.
Marc Andreessen
This is so deeply profound, actually. So, what is the cost of “winning” if these countries are drained in terms of human capital, on the level of geopolitics, what does that lead to? Even if we talk about wars and conflict and all of this, we actually want them to be strong, in the way we understand strong, not just in every way, so that cooperation and competition can build a better world for all of humanity. It’s interesting, this is one of those truths where you just speak and it resonates, and I didn’t even think about it.
This is so deeply profound, actually. So, what is the cost of “winning” if these countries are drained in terms of human capital, on the level of geopolitics, what does that lead to? Even if we talk about wars and conflict and all of this, we actually want them to be strong, in the way we understand strong, not just in every way, so that cooperation and competition can build a better world for all of humanity. It’s interesting, this is one of those truths where you just speak and it resonates, and I didn’t even think about it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Marc Andreessen
So, you were sitting during the holiday season, just boiling over. So, all that said, there’s still to use some good to the H-1B?
So, you were sitting during the holiday season, just boiling over. So, all that said, there’s still to use some good to the H-1B?
Lex Fridman
Okay, so then you get this other… Okay, so then there’s-
Okay, so then you get this other… Okay, so then there’s-
Marc Andreessen
Come all the way around.
Come all the way around.
Lex Fridman
… there’s another nuance. So there’s another nuance, there’s another nuance, which is mostly in the valley we don’t use H-1Bs anymore, mostly we use O1s. So, there’s a separate class of these, and the O1 is like this… It turns out the O1 is the super genius visa. So, the O1 is basically our founder… When we have somebody from anywhere in the world, and they’ve invented a breakthrough new technology, and they want to come to the US to start a company, they come in through an O1 Visa. And that actually, it’s a fairly high bar, it’s a high acceptance rate, but it’s a pretty high bar, and they do a lot of work, and you have to put real work into it, really prove your case. Mostly what’s happened with the H-1B Visa program is that it has gone to basically two categories of employers.
… there’s another nuance. So there’s another nuance, there’s another nuance, which is mostly in the valley we don’t use H-1Bs anymore, mostly we use O1s. So, there’s a separate class of these, and the O1 is like this… It turns out the O1 is the super genius visa. So, the O1 is basically our founder… When we have somebody from anywhere in the world, and they’ve invented a breakthrough new technology, and they want to come to the US to start a company, they come in through an O1 Visa. And that actually, it’s a fairly high bar, it’s a high acceptance rate, but it’s a pretty high bar, and they do a lot of work, and you have to put real work into it, really prove your case. Mostly what’s happened with the H-1B Visa program is that it has gone to basically two categories of employers.
One is basically a small set of big tech companies that hire in volume, which is exactly the companies that you would think, and then the other is it goes to these, what they call the mills, the consulting mills. And so, there’s these set of companies with names, I don’t want to pick on companies, but names like Cognizant, that hire, basically have their business model is bringing in primarily Indians in large numbers, and they often have offices next to company-owned housing, and they’ll have organizations that are literally thousands of Indians living and working in the US, and they do basically call it mid-tier IT consulting. So, these folks, they’re making good wages, but they’re making 60 or 80 a or 100,000 a year, not the 300,000 that you’d make in the Valley.
And so, in practice, the startups, basically little tech as we call it, or the startup world, mainly doesn’t use H-1Bs at this point, and mainly can’t, because the system is kind of rigged in a way that we really can’t. And then, again, you get to the underlying morality here, which is, it’s like, well, Amazon, Amazon’s… I love Amazon. But they’re a big powerful company, they’ve got more money than God, they’ve got resources, they’ve got long-term planning horizon, they do big profound things over decades at a time, they could, or any of these other companies, could launch massively effective programs to go recruit the best and brightest from all throughout the country. And you’ll notice they don’t do that, they bring in 10,000, 20,000 H1Bs a year. And so, you’ve got a question there, and then these mills, there’s lots of questions around them, and whether that’s even an ethical way… I don’t want to say they’re unethical, but there’s questions around exactly what the trade-offs are there. And this like is a Pandora’s box that really nobody really wanted to be opened. To play devil’s advocate in all this, in terms of national immigration issues, none of this is a top end issue, just because the numbers are small, and so I don’t think, the administration has said this is not a priority of theirs for right now. But I guess what I would say is, there is actually a lot of complexity and nuance here. Like I said, I have a lot of friends and colleagues who came over on H-1Bs or O-1s, green cards, many are now citizens, and every single one of them was… Not every single one. A lot of them were enthusiastic to defend the honor of immigrants throughout this whole period. And they said to me, it’s like, well, Marc, how can we more clearly express the importance of high school immigration to the US?
And I was like, I think you can do it by advocating for also developing our native-born talent. Do you want to inflame the issue or do you want to diffuse the issue? I think the answer is to diffuse the issue. Let me give you one more positive scenario, and then I’ll also beat up on the university some more. Do you know about the National Merit Scholarship System, have you heard about this?
Marc Andreessen
Not really, can you explain?
Not really, can you explain?
Lex Fridman
So, there’s a system that was created during the Cold War called the National Merit Scholars, and it is a, basically, it was created, I forget, in the 50s or 60s when… It was people in government actually wanted to identify the best and the brightest, as heretical an idea as that sounds today. And so, it’s basically a national talent search for, basically, IQ. Its goal is to identify basically the top 0.5% of the IQ in the country. By the way, completely regardless of other characteristics. So, there’s no race, gender, or any other aspect to it, it’s just going for straight intelligence. It uses, first, the PSAT, which is the preparatory SAT that you take, and then the SAT. So, it uses those scores, that is the scoring, it’s a straight PSAT/SAT scoring system. They use the SAT as a proxy for IQ, which it is. They run this every year, they identify, they get down to 1% of the population of the kids, of 18 year olds in an given year, who score highest on the PSAT, and then they further qualify down to the 0.5% that also replicate on the SAT. And then it’s like, the scholarship amount is like $2,500. So, it was a lot of money 50 years ago, not as much today. But it’s a national system being run, literally, to find the best and the brightest. How many of our great and powerful universities use this as a scouting system? Our universities all have sports teams, they all have national scouting, they have full-time scouts who go out and they go to every high school and they try to find all the great basketball players and bring them into the NCAA, into all these leagues. How many of our great and powerful and enlightened universities use the National Merit System to go do a talent search for the smartest kids and just bring them in?
So, there’s a system that was created during the Cold War called the National Merit Scholars, and it is a, basically, it was created, I forget, in the 50s or 60s when… It was people in government actually wanted to identify the best and the brightest, as heretical an idea as that sounds today. And so, it’s basically a national talent search for, basically, IQ. Its goal is to identify basically the top 0.5% of the IQ in the country. By the way, completely regardless of other characteristics. So, there’s no race, gender, or any other aspect to it, it’s just going for straight intelligence. It uses, first, the PSAT, which is the preparatory SAT that you take, and then the SAT. So, it uses those scores, that is the scoring, it’s a straight PSAT/SAT scoring system. They use the SAT as a proxy for IQ, which it is. They run this every year, they identify, they get down to 1% of the population of the kids, of 18 year olds in an given year, who score highest on the PSAT, and then they further qualify down to the 0.5% that also replicate on the SAT. And then it’s like, the scholarship amount is like $2,500. So, it was a lot of money 50 years ago, not as much today. But it’s a national system being run, literally, to find the best and the brightest. How many of our great and powerful universities use this as a scouting system? Our universities all have sports teams, they all have national scouting, they have full-time scouts who go out and they go to every high school and they try to find all the great basketball players and bring them into the NCAA, into all these leagues. How many of our great and powerful and enlightened universities use the National Merit System to go do a talent search for the smartest kids and just bring them in?
Marc Andreessen
Let me guess, very few. Zero.
Let me guess, very few. Zero.
Lex Fridman
Zero. As you say it, that’s brilliant, there should be that same level of scouting for talent internally.
Zero. As you say it, that’s brilliant, there should be that same level of scouting for talent internally.
Marc Andreessen
Go get the smartest ones. I’ll give you one more kicker on this topic, if I haven’t beaten it to death. The SAT has changed. So, the SAT used to be a highly accurate proxy for IQ that caused a bunch of problems, people really don’t like the whole idea of IQ. And so, the SAT has been actively managed over the last 50 years by the college board that runs it, and it has been, essentially, like everything else, it’s been dumbed down, in two ways. Number one, it’s been dumbed down where an 800 from 40 years ago does not mean what an 800 means today. And 40 years ago, it was almost impossible to get an 800. Today, there’s so many 800s that you could stock the entire Ivy League with 800s, and so it’s been deliberately dumbed down. And then, two is, they have tried to pull out a lot of what’s called the g-loading.
Go get the smartest ones. I’ll give you one more kicker on this topic, if I haven’t beaten it to death. The SAT has changed. So, the SAT used to be a highly accurate proxy for IQ that caused a bunch of problems, people really don’t like the whole idea of IQ. And so, the SAT has been actively managed over the last 50 years by the college board that runs it, and it has been, essentially, like everything else, it’s been dumbed down, in two ways. Number one, it’s been dumbed down where an 800 from 40 years ago does not mean what an 800 means today. And 40 years ago, it was almost impossible to get an 800. Today, there’s so many 800s that you could stock the entire Ivy League with 800s, and so it’s been deliberately dumbed down. And then, two is, they have tried to pull out a lot of what’s called the g-loading.
And so they, they’ve tried to detach it from being an IQ proxy because IQ is such an inflammatory concept. And the consequence of that is, and this is sort of perverse, they’ve made it more coachable, right? So, the SAT 40 years ago, coaching didn’t really work, and more recently it has really started to work. And one of the things you see is that the Asian spike, you see this giant leap upward in Asian performance over the last decade, and I think, looking at the data, I think a lot of that is because it’s more coachable now, and the Asians do the most coaching. So, there’s a bunch of issues with this. And so, the coaching thing is really difficult because the coaching thing is a subsidy then to the kids whose parents can afford coaching, and I don’t know about you, but where I grew up, there was no SAT coaching. So, there’s an issue there. I didn’t even know what the SAT was until the day I took it, much less that there was coaching, much less that it could work, so much less we could afford it.
So, number one, there’s issues there. But the other issue there is think about what’s happened by the dumbing down, 800 no longer captures all the smart, 800 is too crude of a test. It’s like the AI benchmarking problem. It’s the same problem they have AI benchmarking right now, 800 is too low of a threshold. There are too many kids scoring 800. Because what you want is you want, whatever, if it’s going to be 100,000 kids, I don’t know what it is, if it’s going to be 50,000 kids a year scoring 800, you also then want kids to be able to score 900 and 1000, and 1100, and 1200, and you want to ultimately get to, you’d like to ultimately identify the top 100 kids, and make sure that you get them in MIT. And the resolution of the test has been reduced so that it actually is not useful for doing that.
And again, I would say this is part of the generalized corruption that’s taken place throughout this entire system, where we have been heading in the reverse direction from wanting to actually go get the best and brightest and actually put them in the places where they should be. And then, just the final comment would be, the great thing about standardized testing and the National Merit System is it’s, like I said, it’s completely race blind, it’s gender blind, it’s blind on every other characteristic, it’s only done on test scores. And you can make an argument about whether that’s good or bad, but it is, for sure, it’s the closest thing that we had to get to merit. It was the thing that they did when they thought they needed merit to win the Cold War.
And of course, we could choose to do that anytime we want. And I just say, I find it incredibly striking, and an enormous moral indictment of the current system that there are no universities that do this today. So, back to the immigration thing, just real quick, it’s like, okay, we aren’t even trying to go get the smart kids out of [inaudible 03:03:39], and even if they think that they can get into these places, they get turned down. And the same thing for the smart Asians, and the same thing for the smart Jews, and the same thing for the smart Black people. And I don’t know how that’s moral, I don’t get it at all.
Lex Fridman
As you said about the 800, so I took the SAT and the ACT many times, and I’ve always gotten perfect on math, 800. And I’m not special, it doesn’t identify genius, I think you want to search for genius. And you want to create measures that find genius of all different kinds, speaking of diversity. And I guess we should reiterate and say over and over and over, defend immigrants, yes, but say we should hire more and more native-born.
As you said about the 800, so I took the SAT and the ACT many times, and I’ve always gotten perfect on math, 800. And I’m not special, it doesn’t identify genius, I think you want to search for genius. And you want to create measures that find genius of all different kinds, speaking of diversity. And I guess we should reiterate and say over and over and over, defend immigrants, yes, but say we should hire more and more native-born.
Marc Andreessen
Well, you asked me in the beginning what’s the most optimistic forecast that we could have? And the most optimistic forecast would be, my God, what if we did both?
Well, you asked me in the beginning what’s the most optimistic forecast that we could have? And the most optimistic forecast would be, my God, what if we did both?
Lex Fridman
So, that’s the reasonable, the rational, the smart thing to say here. In fact, we don’t have to have a war.
So, that’s the reasonable, the rational, the smart thing to say here. In fact, we don’t have to have a war.
Marc Andreessen
Well, it would defuse, it would defuse the entire issue.
Well, it would defuse, it would defuse the entire issue.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
If everybody in the center and the South of the country, and every Jewish family, Asian family, Black family knew they were getting a fair shake, it would defuse the issue. How about defusing the issue? What a crazy radical… Sorry, I don’t mean to really get out over my skis here, but…
If everybody in the center and the South of the country, and every Jewish family, Asian family, Black family knew they were getting a fair shake, it would defuse the issue. How about defusing the issue? What a crazy radical… Sorry, I don’t mean to really get out over my skis here, but…
Little tech
Lex Fridman
I think your profile on X states, it’s time to build. It feels like 2025 is a good year to build. So, I wanted to ask your advice, and maybe for advice for anybody who’s trying to build, who is trying to build something useful in the world. Maybe launch a startup, or maybe just launch apps, services, whatever, ship software products. So, maybe, by way of advice, how do you actually get to shipping?
I think your profile on X states, it’s time to build. It feels like 2025 is a good year to build. So, I wanted to ask your advice, and maybe for advice for anybody who’s trying to build, who is trying to build something useful in the world. Maybe launch a startup, or maybe just launch apps, services, whatever, ship software products. So, maybe, by way of advice, how do you actually get to shipping?
Marc Andreessen
So, a big part of the answer I think is we’re in the middle of a legit revolution, and I know you’ve been talking about this on your show. But AI coding, this is the biggest earthquake to hit software in certainly my life, maybe since the invention of software. And we’re involved in various of these companies, but these tools, from a variety of companies, are absolutely revolutionary, and they’re getting better by leaps and bounds every day. And you know all this. But the thing with coding, there’s open questions of whether AI can get better at, I don’t know, understanding philosophy, or whatever, creative writing or whatever, but for sure we can make it much better at coding, because you can validate the results of coding. And so, there’s all these methods of synthetic data and self-training and reinforcement learning that, for sure, you can do with coding.
So, a big part of the answer I think is we’re in the middle of a legit revolution, and I know you’ve been talking about this on your show. But AI coding, this is the biggest earthquake to hit software in certainly my life, maybe since the invention of software. And we’re involved in various of these companies, but these tools, from a variety of companies, are absolutely revolutionary, and they’re getting better by leaps and bounds every day. And you know all this. But the thing with coding, there’s open questions of whether AI can get better at, I don’t know, understanding philosophy, or whatever, creative writing or whatever, but for sure we can make it much better at coding, because you can validate the results of coding. And so, there’s all these methods of synthetic data and self-training and reinforcement learning that, for sure, you can do with coding.
And so, everybody I know who works in the field says AI coding is going to get to be phenomenally good. And it’s already great. And anybody who wants to see this, just go on YouTube and look at AI coding demos, little kids making apps in 10 minutes, working with an AI coding system. And so, I think it’s the golden age… I think this is an area where it’s clearly the golden age. The tool set is extraordinary. In a day as a coder, for sure, in a day you can retrain yourself, start using these things, get a huge boost in productivity, as a non-coder, you can learn much more quickly than you could before.
Lex Fridman
That’s actually a tricky one in terms of learning as a non-coder to build stuff, I feel like you still need to learn how to code. It becomes a superpower, it helps you be much more productive. You could legitimately be a one person company and get quite far.
That’s actually a tricky one in terms of learning as a non-coder to build stuff, I feel like you still need to learn how to code. It becomes a superpower, it helps you be much more productive. You could legitimately be a one person company and get quite far.
Marc Andreessen
I agree with that, up to a point. So, I think, for sure, for quite a long time, the people who are good at coding are going to be the best at actually having AIs code things, because they’re going to understand what, very basic, they’re going to understand what’s happening. And they’re going to be able to evaluate the work, and they’re going to be able to literally manage AIs better, even if they’re not literally handwriting the code, they’re just going to have a much better sense of what’s going on. So, I definitely think, 100% my nine-year-old is doing all kinds of coding classes, and he’ll keep doing that for, certainly through 18, we’ll see after that. And so, for sure that’s the case. But look, having said that, one of the things you can do with an AI is say, teach me how to code.
I agree with that, up to a point. So, I think, for sure, for quite a long time, the people who are good at coding are going to be the best at actually having AIs code things, because they’re going to understand what, very basic, they’re going to understand what’s happening. And they’re going to be able to evaluate the work, and they’re going to be able to literally manage AIs better, even if they’re not literally handwriting the code, they’re just going to have a much better sense of what’s going on. So, I definitely think, 100% my nine-year-old is doing all kinds of coding classes, and he’ll keep doing that for, certainly through 18, we’ll see after that. And so, for sure that’s the case. But look, having said that, one of the things you can do with an AI is say, teach me how to code.
And there’s a whole bunch of, I’ll name names, Khan Academy… There’s a whole bunch of work that they’re doing at Khan Academy for free, and then we have this company, Replit, which was originally specifically built for kids for coding, that has AI built in, that’s just absolutely extraordinary now. And then, there’s a variety of other systems like this. Yeah, the AI is going to be able to teach to code… AI, by the way, is, as you know, is spectacularly good at explaining code. And so, the tools have these features now where you can talk to the code base, and so you can literally ask the code base questions about itself. And you can also just do the simple form, which is you can copy and paste code into a ChatGPT and just ask it to explain it, what’s going on, rewrite it, improve it, make recommendations. And so, there’s dozens of ways to do this.
By the way, you can also, even more broadly than code, like, okay, you want to make a video game, okay, now you can do AI, art generation, sound generation, dialogue generation, voice generation, all of a sudden you don’t need designers, you don’t need voice actors. Yeah, there’s just unlimited…And then a big part of coding is so-called glue, it’s interfacing into other systems. So, it’s interfacing into Stripe, to take payments, or something like that, and AI is fantastic at writing glue code. So, really, really good at making sure that you can plug everything together, really good at helping you figure out how to deploy. It’ll even write a business plan for you. So, it’s just this, it’s like everything happening with AI right now, it’s like this latent superpower, and there’s this incredible spectrum of people who have really figured out massive performance increases, productivity increases with it already, there’s other people who aren’t even aware it’s happening.
And there’s some gearing to whether you’re a coder or not, but I think there are lots of non-coders that are off to the races, and I think there are lots of professional coders who are still like, eh… The blacksmiths were not necessarily in favor of the car business. So, there’s the old William Gibson quote, “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet,” and this is maybe the most potent version of that that I’ve ever seen.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s the old meme with the bell curve, the people on both extremes say, “AI coding is the future.” It’s very common, the programmers to say, if you’re any good of a programmer, you’re not going to be using it, that’s just not true. I consider myself a reasonably good programmer and my productivity has been just skyrocketed, and the joy of programming skyrocketed, every aspect of programming is more efficient, more productive, more fun, all of that kind of stuff.
Yeah, there’s the old meme with the bell curve, the people on both extremes say, “AI coding is the future.” It’s very common, the programmers to say, if you’re any good of a programmer, you’re not going to be using it, that’s just not true. I consider myself a reasonably good programmer and my productivity has been just skyrocketed, and the joy of programming skyrocketed, every aspect of programming is more efficient, more productive, more fun, all of that kind of stuff.
Marc Andreessen
I would also say code has, of anything in industrial society, code has the highest elasticity, which is to say the easier it is to make it, the more of it gets made. I think effectively there’s unlimited demand for code. In other words, there’s always some other idea for a thing that you can do, a feature that you can add, or a thing that you can optimize. And so, overwhelmingly, the amount of code that exists in the world is a fraction of even the ideas we have today, and then we come up with new ideas all the time. And so, I think that… I was, in the late 80s, early 90s, when automated coding systems started to come out, expert systems, a big deal in those days, and there was a famous book called The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer, that predicted that these new coding systems were going to mean we wouldn’t have programmers in the future, and of course, the number of programming jobs exploded by a factor of 100.
I would also say code has, of anything in industrial society, code has the highest elasticity, which is to say the easier it is to make it, the more of it gets made. I think effectively there’s unlimited demand for code. In other words, there’s always some other idea for a thing that you can do, a feature that you can add, or a thing that you can optimize. And so, overwhelmingly, the amount of code that exists in the world is a fraction of even the ideas we have today, and then we come up with new ideas all the time. And so, I think that… I was, in the late 80s, early 90s, when automated coding systems started to come out, expert systems, a big deal in those days, and there was a famous book called The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer, that predicted that these new coding systems were going to mean we wouldn’t have programmers in the future, and of course, the number of programming jobs exploded by a factor of 100.
My guess is we’ll have more coding jobs probably by an order of magnitude 10 years from now. That will be different, they’ll be different jobs, they’ll involve orchestrating AI, but we will be creating so much more software that the whole industry will just explode in size.
Lex Fridman
Are you seeing the size of companies decrease in terms of startups? What’s the landscapes of little tech?
Are you seeing the size of companies decrease in terms of startups? What’s the landscapes of little tech?
Marc Andreessen
All we’re seeing right now is the AI hiring boom of all time.
All we’re seeing right now is the AI hiring boom of all time.
Lex Fridman
Oh, for the big tech?
Oh, for the big tech?
Marc Andreessen
And little tech.
And little tech.
Lex Fridman
And little tech.
And little tech.
Marc Andreessen
Everybody’s trying to hire as many engineers as they can to build AI systems, it’s 100%… There’s a handful of company… There’s a little bit, in customer service, we have some companies and others, I think it’s Klarna that’s publicizing a lot of this, in Europe, where… There are jobs that can be optimized, and jobs that can be automated. But for engineering jobs, it’s just an explosion of hiring, that at least, so far, there’s no trace of any sort of diminishing effect. Now, having said that, I am looking forward to the day, I am waiting for the first company to walk in saying, yes… The more radical form of it. So, basically, the companies that we see are basically one of two kinds, we see the companies that are basically… Sometimes we use weak form, strong form. So, the weak form companies, I sometimes use the term, it’s call it the sixth bullet point, AI is the sixth bullet point on whatever they’re doing.
Everybody’s trying to hire as many engineers as they can to build AI systems, it’s 100%… There’s a handful of company… There’s a little bit, in customer service, we have some companies and others, I think it’s Klarna that’s publicizing a lot of this, in Europe, where… There are jobs that can be optimized, and jobs that can be automated. But for engineering jobs, it’s just an explosion of hiring, that at least, so far, there’s no trace of any sort of diminishing effect. Now, having said that, I am looking forward to the day, I am waiting for the first company to walk in saying, yes… The more radical form of it. So, basically, the companies that we see are basically one of two kinds, we see the companies that are basically… Sometimes we use weak form, strong form. So, the weak form companies, I sometimes use the term, it’s call it the sixth bullet point, AI is the sixth bullet point on whatever they’re doing.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Marc Andreessen
Right? And it’s on the slide. So, they’ve got the whatever, da, da, da, da, da… And then AI is the sixth thing. And the reason AI is the sixth thing is because they had already previously written the slide before the AI revolution started, and so they just added the six bullet point in the slide. Which is how you’re getting all these products that have the AI button up in the corner, the little sparkly button. And all of a sudden Gmail is offering to summarize your email, which I’m like, I don’t need that, I need you to answer my email, not summarize it. What the hell? Okay, so we see those, and that’s fine, that’s like, I don’t know, putting sugar on the cake or something. But then, we see the strong form, which is the companies that are building from scratch for AI, and they’re building it… I actually just met with a company that is building literally an AI email system, as an example, so just-
Right? And it’s on the slide. So, they’ve got the whatever, da, da, da, da, da… And then AI is the sixth thing. And the reason AI is the sixth thing is because they had already previously written the slide before the AI revolution started, and so they just added the six bullet point in the slide. Which is how you’re getting all these products that have the AI button up in the corner, the little sparkly button. And all of a sudden Gmail is offering to summarize your email, which I’m like, I don’t need that, I need you to answer my email, not summarize it. What the hell? Okay, so we see those, and that’s fine, that’s like, I don’t know, putting sugar on the cake or something. But then, we see the strong form, which is the companies that are building from scratch for AI, and they’re building it… I actually just met with a company that is building literally an AI email system, as an example, so just-
Lex Fridman
Oh, nice, I can’t wait.
Oh, nice, I can’t wait.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, they’re going to completely… So, very obvious idea, very smart team, it’s going to be great. And then, Notion, just another, not one of our companies, but just came out with a product. So now companies are going to basically come through, sweep through, and they’re going to do basically AI first versions of basically everything. And those are, companies built… AI is the first bullet point, it’s the strong form of the argument.
Yeah, they’re going to completely… So, very obvious idea, very smart team, it’s going to be great. And then, Notion, just another, not one of our companies, but just came out with a product. So now companies are going to basically come through, sweep through, and they’re going to do basically AI first versions of basically everything. And those are, companies built… AI is the first bullet point, it’s the strong form of the argument.
Lex Fridman
Cursor is an example of that, they basically said, okay, we’re going to rebuild the thing with AI as the first citizen.
Cursor is an example of that, they basically said, okay, we’re going to rebuild the thing with AI as the first citizen.
Marc Andreessen
What [inaudible 03:14:02] from scratch that we could build on this? And again, this is part of the Full Employment Act for startups and VCs is, if a technology transformation is sufficiently powerful, then you actually need to start the product development process over from scratch because you need to reconceptualize the product, and then usually what that means is you need a new company because most incumbents just won’t do that. So, yeah, that’s underway across many categories. What I’m waiting for is the company where it’s like, no, our org chart is redesigned as a result of AI. So, I’m waiting for the company where it’s like, no, we’re going to have… And the cliché, here’s a thought experiment, the cliché would be we’re going to have the human executive team, and then we’re going to have the AIs be the workers. So, we’ll have a VP of engineering supervising 100 instances of coding agents. Okay, maybe… By the way, or maybe the VP of engineering should be the AI, maybe supervising human coders who are supervising AIs.
What [inaudible 03:14:02] from scratch that we could build on this? And again, this is part of the Full Employment Act for startups and VCs is, if a technology transformation is sufficiently powerful, then you actually need to start the product development process over from scratch because you need to reconceptualize the product, and then usually what that means is you need a new company because most incumbents just won’t do that. So, yeah, that’s underway across many categories. What I’m waiting for is the company where it’s like, no, our org chart is redesigned as a result of AI. So, I’m waiting for the company where it’s like, no, we’re going to have… And the cliché, here’s a thought experiment, the cliché would be we’re going to have the human executive team, and then we’re going to have the AIs be the workers. So, we’ll have a VP of engineering supervising 100 instances of coding agents. Okay, maybe… By the way, or maybe the VP of engineering should be the AI, maybe supervising human coders who are supervising AIs.
Because one of the things that AI should be pretty good at is managing because it’s process-driven, it’s the kind of thing that AI is actually pretty good at, right? Performance evaluation, coaching. And so, should it be an AI executive team? And then, of course, the ultimate question, which is AI CEO. And then, maybe the most futuristic version of it would be an actual AI agent that actually goes fully autonomous. Yeah, what if you really set one of these things loose and let it basically build itself a business? And so, I will say, we’re not yet seeing those, and I think there’s a little bit of the systems aren’t quite ready for that yet, and then I think it’s a little bit of, you really do need, at that point, a founder who’s really willing to break all the rules, and really willing to take the swing, and those people exist, and so I’m sure we’ll see that.
Lex Fridman
And some of it is, as you know with all the startups, this is the execution. The idea that you have a AI first email client seems like an obvious idea, but actually creating one, executing it, and then taking on Gmail is really difficult. Gmail, it’s fascinating to see Google can’t do it, because why? Because momentum, because it’s hard to re-engineer the entirety of the system, because feels like Google is perfectly positioned to do it. Same with you have Perplexity, which I love, Google could technically take on Perplexity and do it much better, but they haven’t, not yet. So, it’s fascinating why that is for large companies, that is an advantage for little tech, they could be agile.
And some of it is, as you know with all the startups, this is the execution. The idea that you have a AI first email client seems like an obvious idea, but actually creating one, executing it, and then taking on Gmail is really difficult. Gmail, it’s fascinating to see Google can’t do it, because why? Because momentum, because it’s hard to re-engineer the entirety of the system, because feels like Google is perfectly positioned to do it. Same with you have Perplexity, which I love, Google could technically take on Perplexity and do it much better, but they haven’t, not yet. So, it’s fascinating why that is for large companies, that is an advantage for little tech, they could be agile.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, that’s right.
Yeah, that’s right.
Lex Fridman
They can move fast.
They can move fast.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. Little companies can break glass in a way big companies can’t.
Yeah. Little companies can break glass in a way big companies can’t.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Marc Andreessen
This is sort of the big breakthrough that Clay Christensen had in the Innovator’s Dilemma, which is sometimes when big companies don’t do things, it’s because they’re screwing up. And that certainly happens. But a lot of times they don’t do things because it would break too much glass. Specifically, it would interfere with their existing customers and their existing businesses, and they just simply won’t do that. And by the way, responsibly, they shouldn’t do that. And so, they just get, this is Clay Christensen’s big thing, is they often don’t adapt because they’re well-run, not because they’re poorly run. But they’re optimizing machines, they’re optimizing against the existing business. And as you just said, this is a permanent state of affairs for large organizations. Every once in a while, one breaks the pattern and actually does it, but for the most part, this is a very predictable form of human behavior, and this fundamentally is why startups exist.
This is sort of the big breakthrough that Clay Christensen had in the Innovator’s Dilemma, which is sometimes when big companies don’t do things, it’s because they’re screwing up. And that certainly happens. But a lot of times they don’t do things because it would break too much glass. Specifically, it would interfere with their existing customers and their existing businesses, and they just simply won’t do that. And by the way, responsibly, they shouldn’t do that. And so, they just get, this is Clay Christensen’s big thing, is they often don’t adapt because they’re well-run, not because they’re poorly run. But they’re optimizing machines, they’re optimizing against the existing business. And as you just said, this is a permanent state of affairs for large organizations. Every once in a while, one breaks the pattern and actually does it, but for the most part, this is a very predictable form of human behavior, and this fundamentally is why startups exist.
AI race
Lex Fridman
It feels like 2025 is when the race for dominance in AI will see some winners. It’s a big year. So, who do you think wins the race? OpenAI, Meta, Google, xAI… Who do you think wins the AI race?
It feels like 2025 is when the race for dominance in AI will see some winners. It’s a big year. So, who do you think wins the race? OpenAI, Meta, Google, xAI… Who do you think wins the AI race?
Marc Andreessen
I would say, I’m not going to predict, I’m going to say there’s questions all over the place. And we have this category of question we call the trillion-dollar question, which is literally, depending on how it’s answered, people make or lose a trillion dollars, and I think there’s, I don’t know, five or six trillion questions right now, that are hanging out there, which is an unusually large number. And I’ll just hit a few of them and we can talk about them. So, one is big models versus small models, another is open models versus closed models, another…
I would say, I’m not going to predict, I’m going to say there’s questions all over the place. And we have this category of question we call the trillion-dollar question, which is literally, depending on how it’s answered, people make or lose a trillion dollars, and I think there’s, I don’t know, five or six trillion questions right now, that are hanging out there, which is an unusually large number. And I’ll just hit a few of them and we can talk about them. So, one is big models versus small models, another is open models versus closed models, another…
Marc Andreessen
… Small models. Another is open models versus closed models. Another is whether you can use synthetic data or not. Another is chain of thought. How far can you push that? And reinforcement learning. And then another one is political trillion dollar questions, policy questions, which the US and the EU have both been flunking dramatically and the US hopefully is about to really succeed at. Yeah. And then there’s probably another half dozen big important questions after that. And so these are all just like, say, this is an industry that’s in flux in a way that I even more dramatic, I think, than the ones I’ve seen before.
… Small models. Another is open models versus closed models. Another is whether you can use synthetic data or not. Another is chain of thought. How far can you push that? And reinforcement learning. And then another one is political trillion dollar questions, policy questions, which the US and the EU have both been flunking dramatically and the US hopefully is about to really succeed at. Yeah. And then there’s probably another half dozen big important questions after that. And so these are all just like, say, this is an industry that’s in flux in a way that I even more dramatic, I think, than the ones I’ve seen before.
And look, the most obvious example of the flux is sitting here less than three years ago, sitting here in December of ’22, we would’ve said that Open Ai is just running away with everything. And sitting here today, it’s like there’s at least six world-class God model companies and teams that are, by the way, generating remarkably similar results. That’s actually been one of the most shocking things to me is it turns out that once you know that it’s possible to build one incredibly smart Turing Test-passing large language model, which was a complete shock and surprise to the world, it turns out within a year you can have five more. There’s also a money component thing to it, which is to get the money to scale one of these things into the billions of dollars. There’s basically right now only two sources of money that will do that for you. One is the hyperscalers giving you the money which you turn around and round trip back to them, or foreign sovereigns, other country sovereign wealth funds, which can be difficult in some cases, for companies to access.
So there’s maybe another trillion-dollar question is the financing question. Here’s one. So Sam Altman has been public about the fact that he wants to transition OpenAI from being a non-profit to being a for-profit. The way that that is legally done is that … And there is a way to do it, there is a way in US law to do it. The IRS and other legal entities, government entities, scrutinizes this very carefully because the US takes foundation non-profit law very seriously because of the tax exemption.
And so historically, the way that you do it is you start a for-profit and then you raise money with the for-profit to buy the assets of the non-profit at fair market value. And the last financing round at OpenAI was 150 some billion dollars. And so logically, if the flip is going to happen, the for-profit has to go raise 150 billion out of the chute to buy the assets. Raising 150 billion is a challenge. So is that even possible? If that is possible, then OpenAI maybe is off to the races as a for-profit company. If not, I don’t know. And then obviously the Elon lawsuit. So just because they’re the market leader today, there’s big important questions there. Microsoft has this kind of love-hate relationship with them. Where does that go? Apple’s lagging badly behind, but they’re very good at catching up. Amazon is primarily hyperscalar, but they now have their own models.
Lex Fridman
And then there’s the other questions like you laid out brilliantly, briefly and brilliantly, open versus closed, big versus little models, synthetic data. That’s a huge, huge question. And then test on compute with a chain of thought. They’re all of that. And it’s just fascinating. And these are, I think it’s fair to say, trillion-dollar questions.
And then there’s the other questions like you laid out brilliantly, briefly and brilliantly, open versus closed, big versus little models, synthetic data. That’s a huge, huge question. And then test on compute with a chain of thought. They’re all of that. And it’s just fascinating. And these are, I think it’s fair to say, trillion-dollar questions.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, these are big. Look here’s a trillion-dollar question, which is kind of embedded in that, which is just hallucinations. So if you are trying to use these tools creatively, you’re thrilled because they can draw new images and they can make new music and they can do all this incredible stuff. They’re creative. The flip side of that is if you need them to be correct, they can’t be creative. And that’s the term hallucination. And these things do hallucinate. And there have been court cases already where lawyers have submitted legal briefs that contain made-up court citations, case citations. The judge is like, “Wait a minute, this doesn’t exist.” And the very next question is, “Did you write this yourself?” And the lawyer goes, “Er…”
Yeah, these are big. Look here’s a trillion-dollar question, which is kind of embedded in that, which is just hallucinations. So if you are trying to use these tools creatively, you’re thrilled because they can draw new images and they can make new music and they can do all this incredible stuff. They’re creative. The flip side of that is if you need them to be correct, they can’t be creative. And that’s the term hallucination. And these things do hallucinate. And there have been court cases already where lawyers have submitted legal briefs that contain made-up court citations, case citations. The judge is like, “Wait a minute, this doesn’t exist.” And the very next question is, “Did you write this yourself?” And the lawyer goes, “Er…”
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s why with Elon, with Grok, looking for truth. I mean, that’s an open technical question. How close can you get to truth with LLMs?
I mean, that’s why with Elon, with Grok, looking for truth. I mean, that’s an open technical question. How close can you get to truth with LLMs?
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, that’s right. And my sense, this is a very contentious topic at the industry, my sense is to the extent that there is a domain in which there is a definitive and checkable and provable answer, and you might say, math satisfies that, coding satisfies that, and maybe some other fields, then you should be able to generate synthetic data. You should be able to do chain of thought reasoning. You should be able to do reinforcement learning and you should be able to ultimately eliminate hallucinations. But by the way, that’s a trillion-dollar question right there as to whether that’s true. But then there’s questions like, okay, is that going to work in the more general domain? So for example, one possibility is these things are going to get truly superhuman at math and coding.
Yeah, that’s right. And my sense, this is a very contentious topic at the industry, my sense is to the extent that there is a domain in which there is a definitive and checkable and provable answer, and you might say, math satisfies that, coding satisfies that, and maybe some other fields, then you should be able to generate synthetic data. You should be able to do chain of thought reasoning. You should be able to do reinforcement learning and you should be able to ultimately eliminate hallucinations. But by the way, that’s a trillion-dollar question right there as to whether that’s true. But then there’s questions like, okay, is that going to work in the more general domain? So for example, one possibility is these things are going to get truly superhuman at math and coding.
But at discussing philosophy, they’re basically as smart as they’re ever going to be. And they’re going to be kind of say mid-wit grad student level. And the theory there would just be they’re already out of training data. They literally, you talk to these people, literally the big models, the big models are within a factor of 2X of consuming all the human-generated training data, to the point that some of these big companies are literally hiring people like doctors and lawyers to sit and write new training data by hand. And so does this mean that you have to, if you want your model to get better philosophy, you have to go hire a thousand philosophers and have them write new content, and is anybody going to do that? And so maybe these things are topping out in certain ways and they’re going to leap way ahead in other ways.
Anyway, so we just don’t … Actually, maybe my main conclusion is anybody telling you these big sweeping conclusions, this whole, all of these abstract generalized super intelligence AGI stuff, maybe it’s the engineer in me, but no, that’s too abstract. It’s got to actually work. And then by the way, it has to actually have to be able to pay for it. I mean, this is a problem right now with the big models, the big models that are really good at coding and math. They’re actually very expensive to run. They’re quite slow.
Another trillion-dollar question, future chips, which I know you’ve talked a lot about. Another trillion-dollar question, yeah, I mean all the global issues. Oh, another trillion-dollar question, censorship. And, as they say, all the human feedback training process. Exactly what are you training these things to do? What are they allowed to talk about? How long do they give you these … How often do they give these incredibly preaching moral lectures?
Here’s a trillion-dollar question. How many other countries want their country to run its education system, healthcare system, new system, political system, on the basis of an AI that’s been trained according to the most extreme left-wing California politics? Because what they have on offer right now. And I think the answer to that is not very many. So there’s massive open questions there about, and by the way, what morality of these things are going to get trained on as a …
Lex Fridman
And now [inaudible 03:24:50], we’re cracking wide open with what’s been happening over the past few months. Censorship on every level of these companies, and just the very idea what truth means and what it means to expand the Overton window of LLMs or the Overton window of human discourse.
And now [inaudible 03:24:50], we’re cracking wide open with what’s been happening over the past few months. Censorship on every level of these companies, and just the very idea what truth means and what it means to expand the Overton window of LLMs or the Overton window of human discourse.
Marc Andreessen
So what I experienced, going back to how we started, what I experienced was, all right, social media censorship regime from hell, debanking at large scale, and then the war on the crypto industry, trying to kill it. And then basically declared intent to do the same thing to AI and to put AI under the same kind of censorship and control regime as social media and the banks. And I think this election tipped, in America, I think this election tipped us from a timeline in which things were going to get really bad on that front to a timeline in which I think things are going to be quite good.
So what I experienced, going back to how we started, what I experienced was, all right, social media censorship regime from hell, debanking at large scale, and then the war on the crypto industry, trying to kill it. And then basically declared intent to do the same thing to AI and to put AI under the same kind of censorship and control regime as social media and the banks. And I think this election tipped, in America, I think this election tipped us from a timeline in which things were going to get really bad on that front to a timeline in which I think things are going to be quite good.
But look, those same questions also apply outside the US and the EU is doing their thing. They’re being extremely draconian and they’re trying to lock in a political censorship regime on AI right now that’s so harsh that even American AI companies are not even willing to launch new products in the EU right now. That’s not going to last. But what happens there and what are the trade-offs? What levels of censorship are American companies going to have to sign up for if they want to operate in the EU? Or is the EU still capable of generating its own AI companies or have we brain drained them so that they can’t? So big questions.
X
Lex Fridman
Quick question. So you’re very active on X. A very unique character: flamboyant, exciting, bold. You post a lot. I think there’s a meme, I don’t remember it exactly, but that Elon posted something like inside Elon, there are two wolves. One is please be kind or more positive. And the other one is, I think doing the, I take a big step back and fuck yourself in the face guy. How many wolves are inside your mind when you’re tweeting?
Quick question. So you’re very active on X. A very unique character: flamboyant, exciting, bold. You post a lot. I think there’s a meme, I don’t remember it exactly, but that Elon posted something like inside Elon, there are two wolves. One is please be kind or more positive. And the other one is, I think doing the, I take a big step back and fuck yourself in the face guy. How many wolves are inside your mind when you’re tweeting?
Marc Andreessen
To be clear, a reference from the comedy classic Tropic Thunder.
To be clear, a reference from the comedy classic Tropic Thunder.
Lex Fridman
Tropic Thunder, yeah. Legendary movie.
Tropic Thunder, yeah. Legendary movie.
Marc Andreessen
Yes. Any Zoomers listening to this who haven’t seen that movie, go watch it immediately.
Yes. Any Zoomers listening to this who haven’t seen that movie, go watch it immediately.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s nothing offensive about it.
Yeah, there’s nothing offensive about it.
Marc Andreessen
Nothing offensive about it at all. So Tom Cruise’s greatest performance. So yeah, no, look, I should start by saying I’m not supposed to be tweeting at all.
Nothing offensive about it at all. So Tom Cruise’s greatest performance. So yeah, no, look, I should start by saying I’m not supposed to be tweeting at all.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, yes, yes. But you know.
Yes, yes, yes. But you know.
Lex Fridman
So how do you approach that? How do you approach what to tweet?
So how do you approach that? How do you approach what to tweet?
Marc Andreessen
I mean, I don’t. I don’t well enough. It’s mostly an exercise in frustration. Look, there’s a glory to it and there’s an issue with it, and the glory of it is instantaneous global communication. X in particular is the town square on all these social issues, political issues, everything else, current events. But I mean, look, there’s no question of the format. The format of at least the original tweet is prone to be inflammatory. I’m the guy who at one point, the entire nation of India hated me because I once tweeted something. It turned out that it’s still politically sensitive in the entire continent. I stayed up all night that night as I became front page headline and leading television news in each time zone in India for a single tweet. So the single tweet out of context is a very dangerous thing. Obviously X now has the middle ground where they now have the longer form essays. And so probably the most productive thing I can do is longer form things.
I mean, I don’t. I don’t well enough. It’s mostly an exercise in frustration. Look, there’s a glory to it and there’s an issue with it, and the glory of it is instantaneous global communication. X in particular is the town square on all these social issues, political issues, everything else, current events. But I mean, look, there’s no question of the format. The format of at least the original tweet is prone to be inflammatory. I’m the guy who at one point, the entire nation of India hated me because I once tweeted something. It turned out that it’s still politically sensitive in the entire continent. I stayed up all night that night as I became front page headline and leading television news in each time zone in India for a single tweet. So the single tweet out of context is a very dangerous thing. Obviously X now has the middle ground where they now have the longer form essays. And so probably the most productive thing I can do is longer form things.
Lex Fridman
You’re not going to do it though are you?
You’re not going to do it though are you?
Marc Andreessen
I do. I do. From time-to-time. I do.
I do. I do. From time-to-time. I do.
Lex Fridman
Sometimes.
Sometimes.
Marc Andreessen
I should do more of them. Yeah. Look, obviously X is doing great. And then like I said, Substack know has become the center for a lot of them. I think the best deeply thought through, certainly intellectual content, tons of current events stuff there as well. And then, yeah, then there’s a bunch of new systems that are very exciting. So I think one of the things we can look forward to in the next four years is number one, just a massive reinvigoration of social media as a consequence of the changes that are happening right now. I’m very excited to see what’s going to happen with that. And then it’s happened on X, but it’s now going to happen on other platforms.
I should do more of them. Yeah. Look, obviously X is doing great. And then like I said, Substack know has become the center for a lot of them. I think the best deeply thought through, certainly intellectual content, tons of current events stuff there as well. And then, yeah, then there’s a bunch of new systems that are very exciting. So I think one of the things we can look forward to in the next four years is number one, just a massive reinvigoration of social media as a consequence of the changes that are happening right now. I’m very excited to see what’s going to happen with that. And then it’s happened on X, but it’s now going to happen on other platforms.
And then the other is crypto’s going to come right back to life. And actually that’s very exciting. Actually, that’s worth noting is that’s another trillion-dollar question on AI, which is in a world of pervasive AI, and especially in a world of AI agents, and imagine a world of billions or trillions of AI agents running around, they need an economy. And crypto, in our view, happens to be the ideal economic system for that, because it’s a programmable money. It’s a very easy way to plug in and do that. And there’s this transaction processing system that can do that. And so I think the crypto AI intersection is potentially a very, very big deal. And so that was going to be impossible under the prior regime, and I think under the new regime, hopefully, it’ll be something we can do.
Yann LeCun
Lex Fridman
Almost for fun. Let me ask a friend of yours, Yann LeCun, what are your top 10 favorite things about Yann LeCun? I think he’s a brilliant guy. I think he’s important to the world. I think you guys disagree on a lot of things, but I personally like vigorous disagreement, I, as a person in the stands, like to watch the gladiators go at it. And-
Almost for fun. Let me ask a friend of yours, Yann LeCun, what are your top 10 favorite things about Yann LeCun? I think he’s a brilliant guy. I think he’s important to the world. I think you guys disagree on a lot of things, but I personally like vigorous disagreement, I, as a person in the stands, like to watch the gladiators go at it. And-
Marc Andreessen
No, he’s a super genius. I mean, look, I wouldn’t say we’re super close, but casual friends. I worked with him at Meta. He was the chief scientist at Meta for a long time and still works with us. And obviously is a legendary figure in the field and one of the main people responsible for what’s happening. My serious observation would be it’s the thing I’ve talked to him about for a long time, and I keep trying to read and follow everything he does, is he’s probably, he is the, I think, see if you agree with this, he is the smartest and most credible critic of LLMs as the path for AI. And he’s not, there’s certain, I would say, troll-like characters who are just cropping everything but Yann has very deeply thought through, basically, theories as to why LLMs are an evolutionary dead end.
No, he’s a super genius. I mean, look, I wouldn’t say we’re super close, but casual friends. I worked with him at Meta. He was the chief scientist at Meta for a long time and still works with us. And obviously is a legendary figure in the field and one of the main people responsible for what’s happening. My serious observation would be it’s the thing I’ve talked to him about for a long time, and I keep trying to read and follow everything he does, is he’s probably, he is the, I think, see if you agree with this, he is the smartest and most credible critic of LLMs as the path for AI. And he’s not, there’s certain, I would say, troll-like characters who are just cropping everything but Yann has very deeply thought through, basically, theories as to why LLMs are an evolutionary dead end.
And I actually, I try to do this thing where I try to model, try to have a mental model of the two different sides of a serious argument. And so I’ve tried to internalize that argument as much as I can. Which is difficult because we’re investing it behind LLMs as aggressively as we can. And so if he’s right, that could be a big problem, but we should also know that. And then I sort of use his ideas to challenge all the bullish people to really test their level of knowledge. So I like to grill people.
I got my CS degree 35 years ago, so I’m not deep in the technology, but to the extent I can understand Yann’s points, I can use them to really surface a lot of the questions for the people who are more bullish. And that’s been, I think, very, very productive. So it is very striking that you have somebody who is that central in the space, who is actually a full-on skeptic. And again, this could go different ways. He could end up being very wrong. He could end up being totally right, or it could be that he will provoke the evolution of these systems to be much better than they would’ve been.
Lex Fridman
He could be both right and wrong. First of all, I do agree with that. He’s one of the most legit and rigorous and deep critics of the LLM path to AGI know. His basic notion is that there AI needs to have some physical understanding of the physical world, and that’s very difficult to achieve with LLMs. And that is a really good way to challenge the limitations of LLMs and so on. He’s also been a vocal and a huge proponent of open source, which is a whole nother, which you have been as well.
He could be both right and wrong. First of all, I do agree with that. He’s one of the most legit and rigorous and deep critics of the LLM path to AGI know. His basic notion is that there AI needs to have some physical understanding of the physical world, and that’s very difficult to achieve with LLMs. And that is a really good way to challenge the limitations of LLMs and so on. He’s also been a vocal and a huge proponent of open source, which is a whole nother, which you have been as well.
Marc Andreessen
Which is very useful.
Which is very useful.
Lex Fridman
And that’s been just fascinating to watch.
And that’s been just fascinating to watch.
Marc Andreessen
And anti-doomer.
And anti-doomer.
Lex Fridman
Anti-doomer?
Anti-doomer?
Marc Andreessen
He’s very anti-doomer.
He’s very anti-doomer.
Lex Fridman
He embodies … he also has many wolves inside.
He embodies … he also has many wolves inside.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, he does. Yes, does. Yes he does. So it’s been really, really fun to watch.
Yes, he does. Yes, does. Yes he does. So it’s been really, really fun to watch.
Marc Andreessen
The other two. Okay, here’s my other wolf coming out. The other two of the three godfathers of AI are radicals. Full-on far left, I would say either Marxists or borderline Marxists. And they’re, I think, quite extreme in their social political views. And I think that feeds into their doomerism, and I think they are lobbying for draconian government. I think what would be ruinously destructive government legislation and regulation. And so it’s actually super helpful, super, super helpful to have you on as a counterpoint to those two.
The other two. Okay, here’s my other wolf coming out. The other two of the three godfathers of AI are radicals. Full-on far left, I would say either Marxists or borderline Marxists. And they’re, I think, quite extreme in their social political views. And I think that feeds into their doomerism, and I think they are lobbying for draconian government. I think what would be ruinously destructive government legislation and regulation. And so it’s actually super helpful, super, super helpful to have you on as a counterpoint to those two.
Andrew Huberman
Lex Fridman
Another fun question, our mutual friend Andrew Huberman. First maybe, what do you love most about Andrew? And second, what score on a scale of one to 10 do you think he would give you on your approach to health?
Another fun question, our mutual friend Andrew Huberman. First maybe, what do you love most about Andrew? And second, what score on a scale of one to 10 do you think he would give you on your approach to health?
Marc Andreessen
Oh, three.
Oh, three.
Lex Fridman
Physical three. You think you’d score that high, huh? Okay.
Physical three. You think you’d score that high, huh? Okay.
Marc Andreessen
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
That’s good.
That’s good.
Marc Andreessen
Exactly. Well, so he convinced me to stop drinking alcohol, which was a big-
Exactly. Well, so he convinced me to stop drinking alcohol, which was a big-
Lex Fridman
Successfully?
Successfully?
Marc Andreessen
Well, other than my family, it was my favorite thing in the world. And so it was a major, major reduction. Having a glass of scotch at night, it was the thing I would do to relax. And so he has profoundly negatively impacted my emotional health. I blame him for making me much less happy as a person, but much, much, much healthier, physically healthier. So that I credit him with that. I’m glad I did that. But then his sleep stuff like, yeah, I’m not doing any of that.
Well, other than my family, it was my favorite thing in the world. And so it was a major, major reduction. Having a glass of scotch at night, it was the thing I would do to relax. And so he has profoundly negatively impacted my emotional health. I blame him for making me much less happy as a person, but much, much, much healthier, physically healthier. So that I credit him with that. I’m glad I did that. But then his sleep stuff like, yeah, I’m not doing any of that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Marc Andreessen
I have no interest in his sleep shit. No. This whole light, natural light, no, we’re not doing.
I have no interest in his sleep shit. No. This whole light, natural light, no, we’re not doing.
Lex Fridman
You’re too hardcore for this?
You’re too hardcore for this?
Marc Andreessen
I don’t see any natural … I don’t see any natural light in here.
I don’t see any natural … I don’t see any natural light in here.
Lex Fridman
It’s all covered. It’s all horrible.
It’s all covered. It’s all horrible.
Marc Andreessen
And I’m very happy. I would be very happy living and working here because I’m totally happy without natural light.
And I’m very happy. I would be very happy living and working here because I’m totally happy without natural light.
Lex Fridman
In darkness.
In darkness.
Marc Andreessen
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
It must be a metaphor for something.
It must be a metaphor for something.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, it’s a test. Look, it’s a test of manhood as to whether you can have a blue screen in your face for three hours and then go right to sleep. I don’t understand why you shouldn’t want to take shortcuts.
Yes, it’s a test. Look, it’s a test of manhood as to whether you can have a blue screen in your face for three hours and then go right to sleep. I don’t understand why you shouldn’t want to take shortcuts.
Success
Lex Fridman
I now understand what they mean by toxic masculinity. All right. So let’s see. You’re exceptionally successful by most measures, but what to you is the definition of success?
I now understand what they mean by toxic masculinity. All right. So let’s see. You’re exceptionally successful by most measures, but what to you is the definition of success?
Marc Andreessen
I would probably say it is a combination of two things. I think it is contribution. So have you done something that mattered ultimately and specifically mattered to people? And then the other thing is, I think, happiness is either overrated or almost a complete myth. And in fact, Interesting, Thomas Jefferson did not mean happiness the way that we understand it. When he said “Pursuit of happiness” in the Declaration of Independence, he meant it more of the Greek meaning, which is closer to satisfaction or fulfillment. So I think about happiness as the first ice cream cone makes you super happy. The first mile of the walk in the park during sunset makes super happy. The first kiss makes you super happy. The thousandth ice cream cone, not so much. The thousandth mile of the walk through the park. The thousandth kiss can still be good, but maybe just not right in a row. And so happiness is this very fleeting concept, and the people who anchor on happiness seem to go off the rails pretty often. So the deep sense of having been, I don’t know how to put it, useful.
I would probably say it is a combination of two things. I think it is contribution. So have you done something that mattered ultimately and specifically mattered to people? And then the other thing is, I think, happiness is either overrated or almost a complete myth. And in fact, Interesting, Thomas Jefferson did not mean happiness the way that we understand it. When he said “Pursuit of happiness” in the Declaration of Independence, he meant it more of the Greek meaning, which is closer to satisfaction or fulfillment. So I think about happiness as the first ice cream cone makes you super happy. The first mile of the walk in the park during sunset makes super happy. The first kiss makes you super happy. The thousandth ice cream cone, not so much. The thousandth mile of the walk through the park. The thousandth kiss can still be good, but maybe just not right in a row. And so happiness is this very fleeting concept, and the people who anchor on happiness seem to go off the rails pretty often. So the deep sense of having been, I don’t know how to put it, useful.
Lex Fridman
So that’s a good place to arrive at in life.
So that’s a good place to arrive at in life.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean, who was it who said, the source of all the ills in the world is man’s inability to sit in a room by himself doing nothing. But if you’re sitting in a room by yourself and you’re like, all right, four in the morning, it’s like, all right, have I lived up to my expectation of myself? If you have, the people I know who feel that way are pretty centered and generally seem very, I don’t know how to put it, pleased, proud, calm, at peace. The people who are sensation seekers … Some of the sensations, … By the way, there’s certain entrepreneurs, for example, who are into every form of extreme sport and they get huge satisfaction out to that, or they’re sensation seeking in useful and productive ways. Larry Ellison was always like that. Zuckerberg is like that. And then there’s a lot of entrepreneurs who end up, drugs, like sexual escapades that seem like they’ll be fun at first and then backfire.
Yeah, I think so. Yeah. I mean, who was it who said, the source of all the ills in the world is man’s inability to sit in a room by himself doing nothing. But if you’re sitting in a room by yourself and you’re like, all right, four in the morning, it’s like, all right, have I lived up to my expectation of myself? If you have, the people I know who feel that way are pretty centered and generally seem very, I don’t know how to put it, pleased, proud, calm, at peace. The people who are sensation seekers … Some of the sensations, … By the way, there’s certain entrepreneurs, for example, who are into every form of extreme sport and they get huge satisfaction out to that, or they’re sensation seeking in useful and productive ways. Larry Ellison was always like that. Zuckerberg is like that. And then there’s a lot of entrepreneurs who end up, drugs, like sexual escapades that seem like they’ll be fun at first and then backfire.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But at the end of the day, if you’re able to be at peace by yourself in a room at 4:00 AM and I would even say happy, but I know, I understand Thomas Jefferson didn’t mean it the way, maybe I mean it, but I can be happy by myself at 4:00 AM with a blue screen.
Yeah. But at the end of the day, if you’re able to be at peace by yourself in a room at 4:00 AM and I would even say happy, but I know, I understand Thomas Jefferson didn’t mean it the way, maybe I mean it, but I can be happy by myself at 4:00 AM with a blue screen.
Marc Andreessen
That’s good. Exactly.
That’s good. Exactly.
Lex Fridman
Staring at a cursor.
Staring at a cursor.
Marc Andreessen
Exactly.
Exactly.
God and humanity
Lex Fridman
As a small tangent, a quick shout out to an amazing interview you did with Bari Weiss and just to her in general, Bari Weiss of the Free Press. She has a podcast called, Honestly, with Bari Weiss. She’s great. People should go listen. You were asked if you believe in God. One of the joys … See, we talked about happiness. One of the things that makes me happy is making you uncomfortable.
As a small tangent, a quick shout out to an amazing interview you did with Bari Weiss and just to her in general, Bari Weiss of the Free Press. She has a podcast called, Honestly, with Bari Weiss. She’s great. People should go listen. You were asked if you believe in God. One of the joys … See, we talked about happiness. One of the things that makes me happy is making you uncomfortable.
Marc Andreessen
Thank you.
Thank you.
Lex Fridman
So this question is designed for … Many of the questions today were designed for that. You were asked if you believe in God, and you said after a pause, that you’re not sure. So it felt like the pause, the uncertainty there was some kind of ongoing search for wisdom and meaning. Are you, in fact, searching for wisdom and meaning?
So this question is designed for … Many of the questions today were designed for that. You were asked if you believe in God, and you said after a pause, that you’re not sure. So it felt like the pause, the uncertainty there was some kind of ongoing search for wisdom and meaning. Are you, in fact, searching for wisdom and meaning?
Marc Andreessen
I guess I’d put it this way. There’s a lot to just understand about people that I feel like I’m only starting to understand. And that’s certainly a simpler concept than God. So that’s what I’ve spent a lot of the last 15 years trying to figure out. I feel like I spent my first whatever, 30 years figuring out machines, and then now I’m spending 30 years figuring out people, which turns out to be quite a bit more complicated. And then, I don’t know, maybe God’s the last 30 years or something. And then look, I mean just like Elon, it’s just like, okay, the known universe is very complicated and mystifying. I mean, every time I pull up an astronomy, my kid super in astronomy, and it’s like, Daddy, how many galaxies are there in the universe? And how many galaxies are there in the universe?
I guess I’d put it this way. There’s a lot to just understand about people that I feel like I’m only starting to understand. And that’s certainly a simpler concept than God. So that’s what I’ve spent a lot of the last 15 years trying to figure out. I feel like I spent my first whatever, 30 years figuring out machines, and then now I’m spending 30 years figuring out people, which turns out to be quite a bit more complicated. And then, I don’t know, maybe God’s the last 30 years or something. And then look, I mean just like Elon, it’s just like, okay, the known universe is very complicated and mystifying. I mean, every time I pull up an astronomy, my kid super in astronomy, and it’s like, Daddy, how many galaxies are there in the universe? And how many galaxies are there in the universe?
Lex Fridman
A hundred billion?
A hundred billion?
Marc Andreessen
Okay, how?
Okay, how?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Marc Andreessen
How is that freaking possible? It’s such a staggering concept that I-
How is that freaking possible? It’s such a staggering concept that I-
Lex Fridman
I actually wanted to show you a tweet that blew my mind from Elon from a while back. Elon said, “As a friend called it, this is the ultimate skill tree. This is a wall of galaxies a billion light years across.” So these are all galaxies.
I actually wanted to show you a tweet that blew my mind from Elon from a while back. Elon said, “As a friend called it, this is the ultimate skill tree. This is a wall of galaxies a billion light years across.” So these are all galaxies.
Marc Andreessen
Yeah. How is it that big? How the hell? I’m like, I can read the textbook and the this and the that and the whatever, 8 billion years and the Big Bang and the whole thing. And then it’s just like, all right, wow. And then it’s like, all right, the Big Bang. All right, what was before the Big Bang?
Yeah. How is it that big? How the hell? I’m like, I can read the textbook and the this and the that and the whatever, 8 billion years and the Big Bang and the whole thing. And then it’s just like, all right, wow. And then it’s like, all right, the Big Bang. All right, what was before the Big Bang?
Lex Fridman
Do you think we humans will ever colonize like a galaxy and maybe even go beyond?
Do you think we humans will ever colonize like a galaxy and maybe even go beyond?
Marc Andreessen
Sure. I mean, yeah, in the fullness of time. Yeah.
Sure. I mean, yeah, in the fullness of time. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you have that kind of optimism. You have that kind of hope that extends across thousand of [inaudible 03:40:26]?
So you have that kind of optimism. You have that kind of hope that extends across thousand of [inaudible 03:40:26]?
Marc Andreessen
In the fullness of time. I mean, all the challenges with it that I do, but yeah, why not? I mean, again, in the fullness of time, it’ll take a long time.
In the fullness of time. I mean, all the challenges with it that I do, but yeah, why not? I mean, again, in the fullness of time, it’ll take a long time.
Lex Fridman
You don’t think we’ll destroy ourselves?
You don’t think we’ll destroy ourselves?
Marc Andreessen
No, I doubt it. I doubt it. And fortunately we have Elon giving us the backup plan. So I don’t know. I grew up real Midwest, just conventionally Protestant Christian. It never made that much sense to me. Got trained as an engineer and a scientist. I’m like, “Oh, that definitely doesn’t make sense.” I’m like, “I know I’ll spend my life as an empirical rationalist and I’ll figure everything out.” And then again, you walk up against these things, you bump up against these things and you’re just like, “All right, okay. I guess there’s a scientific explanation for this, but wow.” Then there’s like, “All right, where did that come from?” Then how far back can you go on the causality chain? Yeah. Then even just experiences that we all have on earth, it’s hard to rationally explain it all. And then, so yeah, I guess I’d just say I’m kind of radically open-minded, at peace with the fact that I’ll probably never know.
No, I doubt it. I doubt it. And fortunately we have Elon giving us the backup plan. So I don’t know. I grew up real Midwest, just conventionally Protestant Christian. It never made that much sense to me. Got trained as an engineer and a scientist. I’m like, “Oh, that definitely doesn’t make sense.” I’m like, “I know I’ll spend my life as an empirical rationalist and I’ll figure everything out.” And then again, you walk up against these things, you bump up against these things and you’re just like, “All right, okay. I guess there’s a scientific explanation for this, but wow.” Then there’s like, “All right, where did that come from?” Then how far back can you go on the causality chain? Yeah. Then even just experiences that we all have on earth, it’s hard to rationally explain it all. And then, so yeah, I guess I’d just say I’m kind of radically open-minded, at peace with the fact that I’ll probably never know.
The other thing though, that’s happened, and maybe the more practical answer to the question is I think I have a much better understanding now of the role that religion plays in society that I didn’t have when I was younger. And my partner, Ben has a great … I think he quotes his father on this. He’s like, “If a man does not have a real religion, he makes up a fake one, and the fake ones go very, very badly.”
And so there’s this, it’s actually really funny, there’s this class of intellectual … There’s this class of intellectual that has what appears to be a very patronizing point of view, which is, “Yes, I’m an atheist, but it’s very important that the people believe in something.” And Marx had the negative view on that, which is religion is the opiate of the masses. But there’s a lot of right-wing intellectuals who are themselves, I think, pretty atheist or agnostic, that are like, it’s deeply important that the people be Christian or something like that. And on the one hand it’s like, wow, that’s arrogant and presumptive. But on the other hand, maybe it’s right because what have we learned in the last hundred years is in the absence of a real religion, people will make up fake ones.
There’s this writer, there’s this political philosopher who’s super interesting on this named Eric Voegelin. And he wrote in the mid-part of the century, mid-late-part of the 20th century, he was born in, I think, 1900, died in ’85. So he saw the complete run of communism and Nazism and himself fled, I think he fled Europe and the whole thing. His big conclusion was basically that both communism and Nazism, fascism, were basically religions, but in the deep way of religions. We call them political religions, but they were like actual religions. And they were what Nietzsche forecasted when he said, “God is dead. We’ve killed him, and we won’t wash the blood off our hands for a thousand years.” Is we will come up with new religions that will just cause just mass murder and death. And you read his stuff now and you’re like, “Yep, that happened.”
And then of course, as fully elite moderates, of course, we couldn’t possibly be doing that for ourselves right now, but, of course, we are. And I would argue that Eric Voegelin, for sure, would argue that the last 10 years we have been in a religious frenzy, that woke has been a full scale religious frenzy and has had all of the characteristics of a religion, including everything from patron saints to holy texts, to sin. Wokeness has, I think, has had every single aspect of an actual religion other than redemption, which is maybe the most dangerous religion you could ever come up with, is the one where there’s no forgiveness. And so I think if Voegelin were alive, I think he would’ve zeroed right in on that, would’ve said that. And we just sailed right off. I mentioned earlier we somehow rediscover the religions of the Indo-Europeans. We’re all into identity politics and environmentalism. I don’t think that’s an accident.
So anyway, there is something very deep going on in the human psyche, on religion, that is not dismissible and needs to be taken seriously. Even if one struggles with the specifics of it.
Lex Fridman
I think I speak for a lot of people that it has been a real joy and, for me, an honor to get to watch you seek to understand the human psyche as you described. You’re in that thirty-year part of your life, and it’s been an honor to talk with you today. Thank you, Marc.
I think I speak for a lot of people that it has been a real joy and, for me, an honor to get to watch you seek to understand the human psyche as you described. You’re in that thirty-year part of your life, and it’s been an honor to talk with you today. Thank you, Marc.
Marc Andreessen
Thank you, Lex. Is that it? That’s only, how long is that?
Thank you, Lex. Is that it? That’s only, how long is that?
Lex Fridman
Four hours with Marc Andreessen is like 40 hours of actual content so …
Four hours with Marc Andreessen is like 40 hours of actual content so …
Marc Andreessen
I’ll accept being one of the short ones.
I’ll accept being one of the short ones.
Lex Fridman
For the listener. Marc looks like he’s ready to go for 20 more hours, and I need a nap. Thank you, Marc.
For the listener. Marc looks like he’s ready to go for 20 more hours, and I need a nap. Thank you, Marc.
Marc Andreessen
Thank you, Lex.
Thank you, Lex.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Marc Andreessen. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Thomas Sowell. “It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” Thank you for listening and I hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Marc Andreessen. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Thomas Sowell. “It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” Thank you for listening and I hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #457 with Jennifer Burns.
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Ayn Rand developed her own moral and philosophical system to justify individualism, and to connect the individual to capitalism, and to support capitalism as a social and economic system. Friedman struggles a bit more with how to justify capitalism, and he’ll ultimately come down to freedom as his core value, like his God, as he says. So, freedom does connect back to the individual, but he’s not justifying capitalism for his own sake. He’s justifying it for its ability to underwrite freedom in a social sense and also in the individual sense
So, Friedman has big ideas, big principles that guide him, but he’s also deeply empirical. He spends most of his career doing historical research, economic research, pulling data from how people actually make economic decisions, and live in the world, and using them to test and refine his theories. Where Rand, to some degree, we could say she’s empirical and that she lives through the Russian Revolution, and takes a very big lesson from that, but her style of thinking is really first principles, an axiomatic approach going from the basic idea of rationality, and then playing it out in different spheres.
So, those are just very different intellectual approaches, and then they lead in some ways to really different ways of thinking about how you get things done in the world. Ayn Rand is a purist. She wants to start with the pure belief. She doesn’t want it to be diluted. One of her favorite sayings was, “It’s earlier than you think.” In other words, we’re still moving towards a place where we can really hold and express these ideals purely. Friedman, although he didn’t use this terminology, he was much more half a loaf guy like, “I’ll take what I can get, and then I’ll try to move to where I really want to be.” But he is able to compromise, especially when he moves from being an economist into being more of a political thinker.
So, that’s a really different intellectual style, and then it also plays out in their lives, and that Ayn Rand is incredibly schismatic. I mean, she wants her friends to believe what she believes and support what she supports. She’s willing to break a relationship if it doesn’t match. Milton Friedman, he also does tend to have friends who agree with him, yet he’s always willing to debate his opponents, and he’s willing to do so with a smile on his face. He’s a happy warrior, and he actually will win a lot of debates simply by his emotional affect and his cheerfulness and his confidence, where Rand will lose debates because she gets so angry in the face of disagreement.
So, they have a lot of similarities and a lot of differences, and it’s been really fascinating to dive deep into both of them.
She gets angrier and angrier and crankier and crankier over the course of her life. What I enjoyed about my research is I was able to get into this early moment when she was different and a little more open, and then I watched her close and her harden over time.
So, you can see him still thinking, and that to me, I had assumed he became crankier and crankier and more and more set in his ways. Of course, there’s a phase where he does become that way, especially as he’s in the public eye, and there’s not room for nuance. But to find in the last years of his life him being so reflective, that was absolutely not something Rand could do.
It’s so interesting if you just see this whole world as a game of ideas where we were pushing and pulling and trying to figure stuff out. A bunch of people got real excited over 100 years ago about communism, and then they try stuff out, and then the implementation broke down, and we keep playing with ideas. So, these are the two greats of playing with ideas. I think that’s a thread that just runs through this.
Whereas Friedman, on the one hand, was much more rational, and there’s a whole set of economic thinking. He provides a rational framework for understanding the world, and it’s the framework of neoclassical economics. At the same time, he does pull on mythologies of the idea of America and the Gilded Age, the frontier mythology, the individual immigrant, the settler mythology. He pulls on these, but he doesn’t create them, and he’s more kind of playing a tune he already has. Whereas I think Rand really does something a little bit deeper in her ability to reach into people’s psyche, and then take that emotional psychological experience, and fuse it to an intellectual world and a political world.
That’s really what makes her so powerful. So, I think she comes back in to relevancy in a different way than Friedman does, because I think in some ways she’s tapped into a more universal human longing for independence and autonomy and self-creation and self-discovery.
I’ve listened to basically everything you have on the internet. You give some more depth and nuance on his views on this in your books. He led the famed Chicago School of Economics, and he won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976. He greatly influenced economic policies during the Reagan administration and other administrations. He was an influential public intellectual, highly influential, not just among economists. He lived 1912 to 2006. So, that means he lived and worked through some major world events where his ideas were really important, the Great Depression with the New Deal, World War Two with post-war reconstruction, the Rise and Fall of the Bretton Woods Monetary System as we may talk about, the Cold War and all the conflicts involved in that, the tensions around communism and so on, so the fall of the Soviet Union.
Also, he has some interesting relationships to China’s economic transformation since the 1970s, the stagflation of the 1970s, and I’m sure there’s a lot more. So, can you maybe continue this thread, and give a big picture overview of the ideas he’s known for?
Then there is the prediction of stagflation and the explanation of that in the 1970s, which really is one of these career-making predictions, and we can dig into that. Then in terms of technical economics, he’s known for the permanent income hypothesis, which he develops with a group of female collaborators that I can talk about. So, those are four technical pieces end up being really brought together in what becomes the Chicago School of Economics. He’s undoubtedly the head and the leader of the Chicago School of Economics. There’s an earlier generation that he learns from. There’s his generation.
There’s also a Chicago School of Law and Economics that’s really profoundly influential, and then there’ll be a third generation that he’s somewhat distinct from, but that goes on to really shape economics. But let me go back to these four pieces, and let me start with Great Depression. So, Milton Friedman actually lives through the Great Depression. He’s in college when it hits. So, he is in college just 1928 to 1932. He’s aware of the Depression, and he’s deciding, “Should I study mathematics, or should I study economics?” He’s had some good economics teachers, but it’s really the context.
It’s looking around at the slow dissolving of economic prosperity. So, he decides to go to Chicago. He decides to study economics. What’s really interesting is that the Great Depression is so unexpected. It’s unpredicted. It’s unprecedented, and economists are really struggling to know how to respond to it. So, he’s going to arrive at the University of Chicago when the field is struggling to know what to do. So, he’s in this really open space where the institutional economics of the 1920s has failed to predict, which was focused on business cycles.
This is the irony. Their big thing was charting and understanding business cycles, and then we have the biggest business cycle of all time. They haven’t seen it coming, and they don’t have a good explanation for it. What he will get at Chicago is the remnants of a monetary understanding of the economy. So his teachers, they don’t know exactly what’s going on, but they look first to the banking crisis. They look first to 1933. It’s bank runs failures of maybe it’s up to a third of American banks. Thousands of banks are failing per week. So, they’re focused on that. So, that’s the first imprint he will have.
The Great Depression has something to do with a banking system. The second imprint he will have is that all of his professors are profoundly concerned about the social crisis. They want relief programs. They want them now. They want bank regulation and financial reform. They’re very active. This is not laissez-faire by any stretch of the imagination. So, Friedman has that imprinting. So, he gets there in ’32, ’36, ’37. The ideas of John Maynard Keynes from Britain, which has a different explanation, Keynes has a different explanation of the Great Depression, will make landfall in American economics, and be very profoundly influential. Most American economists, but Friedman already…
It’s too late for Friedman. He already has a different perspective. So, Keynesianism unfolds. I can say more about that, but it basically leads to more active federal government participation in the economy. What underlies a lot of that, its adaptation in America particularly, is the idea that capitalism has failed. Capitalism has revealed itself to have a profound flaw, and that its cycles of boom and bust creates social instability, chaos. It needs to be tamed. It needs to be regulated. So, that becomes the baseline of politics in the United States, the understanding of the New Deal, the understanding of the Democratic Party, even to some extent the understanding of the Republican Party.
Friedman never quite sure about that. He has a hunch that there’s something else going on, and he does not buy that capitalism has ground to a halt, or the other idea is that capitalism has gone through some phase transition. It worked great maybe while we had a frontier. This is a very serious argument that people were making. United States used to have a frontier, a place where Europeans hadn’t fully settled. Of course, they’re pushing out the native tribes. That’s another story, but that this frontier is the engine of economic growth, and the frontier is now over. It’s closed, and we’re going to stagnate. There’s a theory of secular stagnation.
So, to deal with secular stagnation, we’re just going to have to have a more active state. So, Friedman is suspicious of all these assumptions, and he has this idea that it’s something to do with money. Money is somehow important, and so he joins together with Anna Schwartz, who is an economist. She doesn’t at this time hold a PhD. She’s working for the National Bureau of Economic Research. They come together to do this study of money in the U.S. economy. It takes them 12 years to write the book. They’re releasing their ideas, and they’re arguing, and Friedman is writing papers, giving talks, saying, “Money’s really important,” and nobody’s really believing him.
He’s a crank. He’s at Chicago. Chicago is a well-known university, but he’s considered a crank. Then in ’63, he and Anna Schwartz published this book, and it’s 800 pages. It’s a reinterpretation of the history of the United States through money, like the central character is money, whether it’s specie, greenback or the U.S. currency. They have a whole chapter on the Great Depression, and what they’ve literally done, Schwartz has done most of this, they’ve gone… Schwartz has gone to banks, and said, “Show me your books.” Then she’s added up column by column, “How much money is in your vault? How much money is on deposit? How much money is circulating?”
So, they literally have graphs. You can see them in the book of how much money has been circulating in the U.S. at various different points in time. When they get to the Great Depression, they find the quantity of money available in the economy goes down by a third. In some ways, this is completely obvious because so many banks have failed, and we don’t have any type of bank insurance at that point. So if your bank goes under, your savings are there, the money essentially vanishes, and it’s fractional reserve banking. So, you’ve put in… They can loan up to 90% on their deposits.
So, Friedman and Schwartz present this argument that what really made the Great Depression so bad was this drop in the amount of money, the 30% drop in the money, they called the Great Contraction. Then they go further, and they say, “Well, how did this happen and why?” They pinpoint the Federal Reserve, which is a fairly new institution at that time. They say, “What did the Federal Reserve do? The lender of last resort, what did it do in the face of what they’re depicting as a massive, unprecedented liquidity crisis?” They find it’s not really doing much.
They really dig into the details, and they find that the Federal Reserve has gone through a sort of personnel change. Some of the key leaders in the 1920s, Benjamin Strong is one of them. He’s now deceased, and the dominance of the New York Federal Reserve, which in their telling is global, it’s interconnected. It’s seen a lot of financial things come and go. They believe that the New York Fed had the understanding to recognize this is a liquidity crisis. We should be very generous. We should support all the banks. Their influence has diminished for the kind of banks that are more… They don’t say the Rubes and the Hicks, but it basically is.
It’s like, “The people in charge don’t know what they’re doing.” So, the Fed pursues this policy of masterly inactivity. They don’t see it as a problem. They don’t do much. There’s an enormous liquidity crisis, and that’s their version of what the Great Depression is all about, that it’s a financial system meltdown. It’s a liquidity crisis, and that it in some ways, well, in many ways, they argue very strong counterfactual argument. The Federal Reserve could have prevented it, and it did not. So, it becomes then an institutional failure and a political failure, not a failure of capitalism as a system. So, this book comes out. It’s a blockbuster.
Even those economists who’ve been like, “Friedman is a crank. I don’t buy it,” are like, “Friedman and Schwartz are onto something. Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz are onto something.” So, that really changes the game. This is also one of his most influential contributions, because Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they’re the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
So, the specifics of what they say to do have obviously evolved as the system has changed, but this is a playbook for how to deal with economic crisis. It’s Friedman and Schwartz. So, it’s absolutely fundamental, and that is really going to be the place he makes his mark.
Incidentally, they all have better grades in high school than he does, but he’s the one that goes to college. But it’s actually really important that he loses his father figure, because he’s then looking for other father figures, and he meets two at Rutgers. One is Arthur Burns, who will go on to have a huge influence in his career. No relation to me, by the way. But, Arthur Burns is like him, a fellow Jewish immigrant boy on the make. He’s older, and he’s making a career as an economist. Then there’s Homer Jones who has gone to the University of Chicago, and is studying with Frank Knight at Chicago, and says, “You have to go to Chicago.”
So, he has these two mentors. Burns in particular suggests, ” Oh, I could be an economist. That could be my career path.” The idea to be an actuary for an insurance company, I’m not sure where he got that idea, but he just thought that was something he could do as someone who was good at math. So, the college really opens the perspective, opens the door. Then I think it’s really key that, again, he doesn’t get an explanation that he buys for the Great Depression. So then he’s looking for one. The math part is really interesting aspect of his career. Now, he actually comes to Chicago to study with the mathematical economist, Henry Schultz, but he gets there, and he thinks Schultz is kind of dumb. He really does. He’s incredibly arrogant, and he just thinks, “This guy’s not that smart,” and it seems that… I mean, Schultz did some really important work in the early stages of mathematical economics, but a lot of the oral histories about him are like, “Yeah, he wasn’t that bright.” So, Friedman’s may be onto something. So, he falls into the set of students who are really enthralled with this other professor, Frank Knight. Frank Knight is against math and economics. Frank Knight is a neoclassical economist, but not a mathematical economist.
He’s an old school liberal. He’s really concerned about liberal democracy, economic liberalism. Friedman is very deeply influenced by Knight. He continues to pursue mathematical economics, so he’ll go… For part of his graduate career, he goes to Columbia University where he actually gets his PhD from. He works with a mathematical economist there. So, he comes out trained in what will eventually be econometrics, statistics and economics. His early publications are in statistics, but it’s not really where his intellectual heart and soul are. Eventually, he will turn very profoundly against mathematics and economics, and become a heterodox strain throughout 20th century economics.
It says, ” Simple models are better. We need to work off empirical data, not construct elegant models,” and becomes really counter-cultural within economics in that way.
So, where does value come from in classical economics? It comes from the labor that a person puts into it. So, maybe this in some ways comes from Locke’s notion of property that you mingle your labor with the natural world. We can say labor theory of value. So, classical economics concerned with… Smith is arguing against mercantilism for more free trade, often goes by the name of political economy to show it’s more capacious. It’s thinking of politics and economics. You can still read these books today. The sentences are long. The words are different, but you can still follow along.
So, the real big transition from classical economics and political economy to economics as it’s understood today, comes with the marginal revolution. The marginal revolution is a scientific revolution that happens in a couple of different places simultaneously. This is one of these things that you see in the history of science. There’ll be some breakthrough like, “Darwin has a breakthrough,” but somebody else has sort of the same breakthrough at the same time, totally differently. So, there’s a version of marginalism that’s continental. There’s a version in the German-speaking lands, in the French-speaking lands and in Britain. They all come together, and the shift is in the theory of value. So, the theory of value in marginalism is on the margin.
So, say you have one apple, and you want a second one. How much is going from one apple to two apple worth for you? Probably quite a bit. If you had 10 apples, maybe going to 11 apples doesn’t matter that much. The marginal value is less. So, what marginalism does though, most importantly, is it opens the door to math and economics, because it means you can graph this now. You can depict this relationship graphically. There’s some really interesting work in the history of economics that shows a lot of the people who developed marginalism were looking to physics as a model, Physics, the queen of the sciences.
So, they were thinking… They imported terms from the natural world to describe the social world through the lens of economics terms like equilibrium. So, the idea being that if you looked at a market, a market would reach equilibrium when everybody has bought and sold all that they want, or the price will settle at an equilibrium price when it’s really the demand and supply are matching up.
So, that’s a juncture, a break and so marginalism … First, people start using, really, geometry to graph things but marginalism is also opening up to the possibility of calculus and the possibility of creating models. But at that point in time, late 19th century, a model is something like a physicist does. Think of an inclined plane and how fast does the ball roll from one to the other, it’s a physical representation of the world and eventually economists will start to create mathematical representations of the world but we’re not quite there yet. So, we’re late 19th century and we have this fissure, we have this introduction of marginal analysis that marks the juncture from classical economics to economics. So, let’s say now we have economics but we still have this fissure between historical thinking and let’s call it natural law thinking, that’s not quite right, but physical laws versus contingency. And then, in the United States, this ends up mapping onto debates about capitalism and so more historically minded economists tend to be interested in the progressive movement which is invested in taming and regulating industrial capitalism and changing its excesses, factory safety laws, wage laws, working conditions laws. Yet, in general, American economists all use marginal analysis just in different ways. The ones who are more drawn to marginal analysis become known as neoclassical economists. They’re neoclassical, the neo is because they’re using marginal analysis, the classical is because they don’t think we need to change the way the economy operates or the government operates, they’re not progressive. Whereas the progressives are saying things like we need to use social control. The state and the people, collectively and democratically, need to control the way economics unfolds and make sure things are fair and equal.
So, that school of thought becomes known as institutional economics in the United States by the 20th century. So, it’s part of the progressive movement late 19th century, into the 20th century, it really becomes institutional economics and it’s quite dominant and the neoclassical economists are still there but they’re very much a minority. And Frank Knight, Milton Friedman’s teacher, is one of the minority neoclassical economists and the institutionalists are much more progressive still.
So, this is a situation when the Great Depression hits and, as I mentioned before, the most important institutional economist is Wesley Mitchell and he has said … He’s written a whole book on business cycles. He doesn’t see this business cycle coming and it hits and he doesn’t have a good explanation for it. Now, perhaps the preeminent neoclassical economist was Irving Fisher. Now, Irving Fisher is big into the stock market and Irving Fisher says sometime in late summer 1929 stocks are going ever higher and will continue to go ever higher forever. And so, he loses his reputation after the stock market crash. So, Milton Friedman is stepping into a field in which the greats have been discredited and there’s an enormous economic crisis all around.
So, Knight will become one of the people who helps Friedman think how do I develop a new theory of capitalism that works in an era of mass democracy where people can vote and people can express at the ballot box their unhappiness with what’s happening economically. So, this larger movement will generate, of which F.A. Hayek is a part, Friedman is a part that becomes the very early stirrings of trying to think about a new liberalism which will eventually be called neoliberalism.
And so, when the Great Depression unfolds, he basically comes up with a new theory for explaining what’s going on and the previous neoclassical understanding as things go up and things go down and, when they go down, there’s a natural mechanism to bring them back up. So, when the economy’s going down, prices are going down, wages are going down, everybody’s losing money but eventually firms are going to realize, hey, I can hire people cheap, hey, I can buy stuff cheap, I don’t have a lot of competition maybe I should get in the game here and then others will start to get in and then you regenerate prosperity in that way. And so, Keynes says, “Sure, that’s one theory but something different is happening right now. Part of why it’s happening is because we have … The working class is more empowered now, they’re not simply going to just take low wages and ride them down to the floor, we might not hit the floor.”
But also he says people might become too anxious to spend, they might not want to invest. And Keynes has these discussions of animal spirits, he’s still enough of a political economist to think, not just in terms of human rationality, but what are some other things going on in human beings. And people might decide to sit on their money, they might not invest it and so what happens then is you could get stuck in a bad equilibrium. So, in the neoclassical model of equilibrium, it restarts and resets itself and he says, “No, we could get stuck here, we get stuck in the Depression. And in that case, what has to happen?” He says, “The government stimulates investment and the government itself invests.” And then he argues that, this is a student of his, Richard Kahn says, “As the government invests a dollar, it has a multiplier effect. The dollar spent by the government ramifies out throughout the economy.”
So, it takes the government and puts it in the center as opposed to, say, the banking system or the financial system which would be the more Friedman analysis. And for many economists of Friedman’s generation, and he’s a weird generation because, the generation that becomes dominant, it’s just four years older, the men who become Keynesian economics but that four years is really important because they come in to grad school in economics and they get exposed to the new ideas of John Maynard Keynes and they … I think it’s Paul Samuelson calls it, it was like a South Sea virus that attacked, all of the younger economists immediately succumbed and no one under 50 ever got the disease because their thinking is already set. And so, Keynesianism, Keynes himself is very suspicious of math and economics and he and Friedman is fascinating.
One of the first books by Jan Tinbergen, a Dutch economist, to use math and economics use huge volumes. Volume one, Keynes pans it. Volume two, Friedman pans it. So, they’re in the same page but what happens is, as Keynesianism arrives in the United States, Franklin Roosevelt is not really a Keynesian, he’s an accidental or experimental Keynesian and there’s a bunch of different ideas in the United States that are very similar to Keynesianism. They’re not theorized but there are similar ideas that the government has to do something. So, this all comes together and American economists realize that you can construct models in the Keynesian perspective and, if you can use numbers in these models, you can go to Washington, D.C. with numbers and you seem like you have a lot more authority and so math becomes really twinned into Keynesian economics.
So, there’s this uneasy piece where economists are using neoclassical tools to analyze individual behavior and individual market behavior and they’re shifting to a different paradigm when they think about the economy as a whole. And in this paradigm of the economy as a whole, the federal budget, the taxing and spending power of the federal government become paramount and that is called the fiscal revolution and that’s really the essence of Keynesianism. But the key thing to remember is that Keynesianism and Keynes are different and there’s this famous episode where John Maynard Keynes comes to D.C. and he goes to dinner and he comes back and he says to one of his friends in London, he said, “Yeah, it was really interesting, I was the only non-Keynesian there.”
So, that would be one piece. Another piece of laissez-faire would be free trade amongst nations, so no regulation of who can invest in a nation or who can take money out of a nation. So, Nippon Steel could come and invest in US Steel and there would be no grounds in which to reject that. Or you could, as a billionaire in the United States, relocate you and all your money to another country and the United States couldn’t try to keep you and nobody else could stop you from coming in. And then in the context of economic crisis, laissez-faire would not encompass centrally provided relief because, in the pure theory, again, very seldom applied purely but in the pure theory, the wages need to come down far enough and people need to be desperate enough to start taking work and to start the machine again. So, the theory would be, if you give people relief, they might not go back to work.
Now, almost nobody says that in the Great Depression because the situation is so bad and people are starving on the street and feel, for humanitarian and ethical reasons, it’s not okay to say that. The Austrians though at first, Hayek and Lionel Robbins are like, “This is a business cycle and it needs to run its course and it will be detrimental if we intervene,” and then pretty soon Hayek has to change his tune.
And certainly, there were members of the Federal Reserve who felt like it would create, they didn’t say moral hazard, but it would create what we now call moral hazard, bad habits. Were we to intervene and to save failing banks because failing banks need to be taught a lesson, whey need to be taught discipline? And so, a lot of people, I think, saw it in the context of discipline, this is discipline and, if you remove the discipline, you’ll be taking away something fundamental in society.
So, similar to what did happen, in some ways, in the banking reforms in that, in the 1930s, the investment banks were split from the deposit banks and the banks that took deposits were much more highly regulated and they were supported by the FDIC. But the point being, the Chicago School had these very radical proposals for reform. Go off the gold standard, restrict the currency, change the banks, immediately relief payments now. What is important to note though is that they thought of all of those as emergency measures to get through the emergency not as permanent alterations in the state of what had to be and not permanent alterations between state and market where the Keynesian assumption is things have changed, times have changed, we’re in a new dispensation and we need a new relationship.
So, Friedman is very, Milton Friedman is very open to doing things differently in a state of emergency. He will have different ideas during World War II than any other time and that’s why I argue I think he would have been supportive of at least the first rounds of coronavirus relief because I think he would have put his emergency thinking hat on. So, in that way, he was definitely more flexible.
And so, he writes this book that becomes incredibly famous, The Road to Serfdom, basically saying taking these steps towards a planned economy or an economy that’s a modified form of capitalism is going to … Could, he’s very clear that this is not an inevitability but, if the same steps are taken and people follow the same line of thinking, we may end up in a coercive, totalitarian state. So, this becomes enormously popular in the United States. First of all, he’s in good touch with Friedman’s teachers even before this book comes out, they see them as kindred spirits. Frank Knight is in touch with him, Henry Simons is in touch with him, they all see themselves as liberals, they call themselves old fashioned unreconstructed liberals. And so, even before he becomes famous, Hayek will be trying to organize thinkers and intellectuals who he believe shares his values of what we would call today classical liberalism and to create a counter consensus to the one that’s gathering.
Now, Hayek also chooses not to argue against Keynes and he feels that this is a huge missed opportunity that he should have staked out the case against Keynes and that, because he did not, people come to believe there is no case against Keynes, Keynes is literally unanswerable. So, Hayek will have this great regret, he will channel some of his regrets into community building, specifically developing The Mont Pelerin Society, and it will fall to Friedman to really make that case against Keynes. But Hayek will end up at Chicago and Hayek really influences Friedman to think about what Hayek calls the competitive order and how the state can and must maintain a competitive order that is the system of laws, of norms, of practices that makes it possible for markets to function.
And this is one of these key differentiators between the older philosophy of laissez-faire and the newer reconceptualization of liberalism which says, yes, we need a state, we need a state that’s not intervening in markets under social democratic auspices but is structuring and supporting markets so that they can function with maximum freedom keeping in mind that, if there aren’t basic social supports needed, the market is apt to generate the type of either inequality or social instability that will call the whole system into question.
So, Hayek is really key in promoting this modified liberalism. But, from being a very prominent economist in the 1920s and 1930s as mathematics becomes the language of economics, Hayek is completely left out in the cold. Now, Friedman, to some degree, is left out in the cold but Friedman at least has proved the mathematical economists and he knows what they’re up to and he’s rejecting it from a position of expertise and knowledge and he literally drives the mathematical economists out of Chicago. They’re clustered in a group called the Cowles Commission and he makes their life hell, they flee, they flee the Friedman onslaught. But then when Hayek arrives at the University of Chicago, he would like to be considered for a position in the economics department and Friedman, Milton Friedman says, “No way, you’re not really an economist because you’re not empirical, because you just developed these theories.”
So, he has an appreciation for Hayek as a social thinker but not as an economist so what Friedman decides to do, his answer to Keynes will be deeply empirical but it will also be theoretical and it will create an alternative intellectual world and approach for economists who aren’t satisfied with Keynesianism. And almost single-handedly, Friedman will introduce political and ideological diversity into the field of economics because, from his beachhead in Chicago, he will develop the theory of monetarism. So, what is monetarism? The easy way to summarize it is this famous dictum of Milton Friedman’s, inflation is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. And it’s fascinating that he becomes an expert in inflation because the first research and the first major research product of monetarism is that theory of the Great Depression in a monetary history of the United States and that is a theory of a deflation, all price is going down.
And he will go back to an idea that Irving Fisher had popularized but a very old idea, almost a truism, the Quantity Theory of Money which says the level of the price level is related to the amount of money circulating in an economy. So, if you have more money, prices go up, if you have less money, prices go down. Now, this seems very basic and almost too basic to bear repeating but Friedman is saying this very basic relationship holds true even in an advanced industrial economy and that is what people have started to doubt. And if you think about money, you think about banks, you don’t think necessarily about the federal budget spending and taxation.
And what you see happens in American economics, the textbooks previous to the Keynesian Revolution, they spent a lot of time on money, they spent a lot of time on interest rates. You can do word counts and other scholars have done the word counts and the word count for money after World War II just plummets and you start seeing things like taxation, budget, those things go up. So, what happens is the economics profession shifts its attention, it just looks away from money to other things and Friedman is one of the few who’s saying, no, money still matters, money still counts and it’s a very counterintuitive argument to make, it’s a very historical argument to make and this is absolutely fascinating to me.
With Anna Schwartz, he develops this 150-year timeframe, he also has students working on episodes of hyperinflation in different periods of time, he’s also looking back to ancient history, inflationary episodes there and he’s saying this is a law of economics. This is something that recurs throughout time, it’s not historical, it’s not contingent, it’s a law of economics. And his Keynesian counterpoints are saying, no, that’s not relevant any longer, maybe once it was relevant but it’s not relevant today. Now, in some ways, they have a point because, in order to pay for World War II, the federal government sells a lot of bonds, it issues a lot of debt and it wants to pay this debt back a low interest rate and it wants people to keep buying it, it wants the low interest rate to be competitive with other interest rates. So, wants, in general, low interest rates throughout the economy.
And the Federal Reserve has been so discredited by the Great Depression that the Treasury basically runs the Federal Reserve and says keep interest rates low. And so, that’s what it’s doing and so the Federal Reserve has stopped being an independent entity, it’s just a sub-department of the Treasury. But in 1951, they negotiate what’s called the Treasury Fed Accord and the Federal Reserve gets its independence but it doesn’t really use it but, statutorily, it now has it. And so, most economists are just observing a regime in which the Federal Reserve has no power, a regime in which there is really little inflation, the inflation that is seen is post … There’s a little burst of inflation in the Korean War. And they’re saying inflation’s not really important, it’s not really relevant and money’s not really relevant and important. And so, to break through and to make the argument, that’s why Friedman and Schwartz go to history and they’re able to make that argument for history.
So, then Friedman is coming out with a variety of papers that are saying, when I look at economic fluctuations, he maps them side by side to fluctuations in the money supply and says, look, they fit. And other economists, remember, they’re building complicated mathematical models and Friedman’s doing extremely simple stuff and they just think it’s dumb, it’s not interesting, it’s not true, they don’t buy it at all. But after A Monetary History of the United States, they have to pay attention. So, it’s really in those years Friedman is hammering this idea of monetarism and it starts to become something respectable, bordering on respectable for other economists to look to and think about and that’s really the beginning of the Keynesian Monetarist split where, if you start to give Friedman any credence, you’re heading towards a monetarist position.
Now, at the same time, Friedman comes out very publicly in 1964 as a supporter of Barry Goldwater and Keynesian economics has found a home in the Democratic Party. Its probably brightest moment in the sun is the administration of John F. Kennedy who brings in a lot of Harvard and Yale professors to the Council of Economic Advisors, he proposes a series of spending programs that are really guided by the Keynesian philosophy. And the Barry Goldwater is tremendously controversial, part for his votes against civil rights which Friedman really supports and part because he’s a hard core libertarian in an age when that’s not in the political mainstream or not discussed in the political mainstream and he’s just tremendously unpopular particularly in all the educated precincts where Friedman lives. So, Friedman is like an outcast and a pariah for his support of Goldwater.
And so, that actually really affects monetarism because people feel that this is now becoming a package deal and so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s-
But for now, I’ll just say that conservative in the United States becomes a political brand that contains elements of conservatism that are recognizable across time and space, embrace of tradition or comfort with hierarchy, et cetera. And it also has something new and different, which is Friedman’s ideas about… Milton Friedman’s advocacy of more free markets, less government regulation, and the benefits of capitalism and the benefits of freedom.
And that gets folded into American conservatism, in part because Milton Friedman is such a powerful intellectual figure. And after his advocacy of Goldwater the media realizes this guy’s really smart. He has really interesting things to say. He makes great copy, he makes a great guest, and he starts writing a column for Newsweek magazine, which is a very big deal in a much more consolidated media environment. And he’s quoted in all the newspapers. And so his public profile really starts to rise right as he’s pushing monetarism as an alternative to the Keynesian synthesis.
And so what Friedman is really going to add to that is maybe going up a level and thinking in the macro about the whole economy and how money circulates through that economy as a whole. And so what he and Anna Schwartz do is they construct what are called monetary aggregates. This is adding together say all the money that’s on deposit in banks and all the money that’s believed to be circulating in people’s wallets.
And you also have to really go back in time. We don’t have credit cards. There is a stock market, but it’s tiny in terms of the number of people who invest. There aren’t mutual funds. When travelers checks are introduced, this is a big deal. So we have a very simple monetary system. And so Schwartz and Milton Friedman start measuring what they call the monetary aggregates. They focus on M1 and M2 and their favorite aggregate is M2, which I believe is encompassing sort of deposits and circulating medium.
The other thing to recall, there’s some fine distinctions between money in savings accounts and money in checking accounts, and money in savings accounts can earn interest and is generally believed not to circulate or money in checking accounts does not at that time bear interest and cannot legally bear interest. And so is thought of as circulating. And then there’s different institutional architectures of postal savings, banks and credit unions.
But Friedman is one, taking the focus to these aggregate amounts of money and saying, these really have a lot to do with economic booms and busts. When we have an expansion in the amount of available money, we see an expansion in economic activity. When we have a contraction in available money, we have a contraction. And so he says at this stage, the government through the mechanism of the Federal Reserve and its influence on interest rates can either make money more cheaply available and more freely available in the economy or can make money more expensive and slow things down.
But the central core idea of monetarism is this is potentially very bad if the government can hit the gas and then hit the brake, and hit the gas and hit the brake based on say what a politician wants or what somebody at the Federal Reserve wants. You have a lot of instability in the system. And so one of the core policy proposals of monetarism is let’s grow the money supply at a steady rate. And in the beginning, Friedman just says K%, he doesn’t even put a number on it because he says the number doesn’t matter. What matters is the steadiness in the growth rate. Because if it’s a steady growth rate, it will fade away. And then people will make economic decisions based on the fundamentals, not based on what they think is going to happen, not based on hedging against inflation or hedging against deflation. They’ll just be able to function.
So this is sort of the paradox of monetary policy. When it’s happening right you don’t see it, you don’t notice it. When it’s happening wrong, Friedman argues, it can just fundamentally destabilize everything. It can cause a great depression, can cause an artificial boom. And so he’s taking monetary policy at a time when most economists think it’s completely irrelevant and saying, this is the central game of the economy. Now we live in a world where we believe this and the Federal Reserve chair can’t open their mouth without headlines being generated. But Friedman is saying this at a time when the Federal Reserve is a mysterious and secretive organization. It’s not well-known, it’s not deeply appreciated. Some of the only people who appreciate the Fed’s power are hardcore rural populists, who have constituents who think the banks and money power are the problem, who are throwbacks from the frontier days.
So Friedman in the beginning has no constituency for this policy. He has no constituency for this analysis. And so just going back to summarize monetarism, it’s looking, it’s using the quantity theory of money to analyze the macroeconomy. It’s proposing a policy of slow and steady growth in the money supply. And then it is arguing that inflationary episodes when they emerge are profoundly driven by changes in the money supply, not by anything else.
And so this relationship has led policymakers to think that sometimes inflation is good, and if you want to lower unemployment, you could let inflation go a little bit. And in the crude forms, it becomes to seem like a menu. Like you could take your model and you could plug in, I want this much unemployment. And it would say, well, great, this is how much inflation you should do. And so then you would target that inflation rate.
So Friedman gets up and he says, “this is wrong. This might work in the short term, but it’s not going to work in the long term.” Because in the long term inflation has… First of all, it has a momentum of its own. Once it gets going, it tends to build on itself. The accelerationist thesis, it accelerates. And once inflation gets going, and the reason it gets going is because workers go to the store and they see the price level has gone up, things have cost more. They ask for their wages to go up, then eventually the wages will go up too high and they will no longer be hireable or companies will decide at these high wages I can’t hire as many workers, I’d better lay off. So if inflation keeps going eventually over the long term it will result in high unemployment.
So he says, “theoretically, you could end up in a situation where you have high inflation and high unemployment. This hasn’t been seen,” but he says, “theoretically this could happen.” And then he goes and he says, “and the government has started expanding the money supply in 1966, so we’re going to get a bunch of inflation, and then we’re going to get a bunch of unemployment.” And he estimates about how long it will take. And then he says, “once this all happens, it will take about 20 years to get back to normal.” And-
And a very parallel process happens in Britain. Britain is going through a very similar burst of spending, burst of inflation. And so Friedman is vindicated in this very profound way, in the way that he himself said would be the ultimate vindication, which is, my theory should predict. So that prediction of stagflation is really the sort of final breakthrough of his ideas and also their importance to policy and to thinking about how we should intervene or not in the economy and what the role of the Federal Reserve is. Because he’s saying the Federal Reserve is incredibly powerful. And finally people start to believe him.
Now, Knight though is not a booster of capitalism. It could be in part because he’s just a darkly pessimistic kind of depressive guy. And so he’s afraid capitalism is going to collapse and socialism or fascism is going to take over, or communism. And so he kind of descends into darkness there. Friedman as the more optimist believes with Hayek, that you can develop a different approach to capitalism that would preserve the price system, preserve allocation, but build in social supports, build in a social minimum, things like this.
But there’s a moment in his career where he’s really struggling to figure out, how do I make this case for capitalism? And basically the whole conservative movement or people who we later call the conservative movement are struggling to make this case. And he starts thinking about what makes capitalism work is that if you put forth effort, you get a reward. So then you could say, well, people get what they deserve under capitalism.
But then he kind of stops and he says, “that’s not really true, because we’re born with such different endowments and there’s a huge quotient of luck. So some people are just in the right position and some people aren’t. So if I say capitalism is moral because people get what they deserve, that’s not really true.” And he also kind of has an ethical reaction, which he ends up calling an aesthetic reaction. He’s kind of like, it just doesn’t feel right to say that. And so he struggles for a while with, what do I say? And then he basically says, “capitalism, it can’t be the core. Discipline of the market, can’t be the core to your ethics, it has to be something else.” So that’s when he will decide it’s freedom, it’s individual freedom. That’s really the ethical core. And capitalism makes individual freedom possible, because capitalism is dedicated to maximizing that.
And so the defense of capitalism comes through freedom. And at his stage in history, he’s able to set aside nice worry about inequality and say, when I look at the data, and this is true for the macro data at mid-century, incomes are actually converging. And also if you look historically, if a country goes from say, a more feudal, agrarian society to a more market-based society, incomes will converge. Now and then they might start to diverge. But Friedman’s in the moment when he’s seeing the convergence.
And so that’s what he’s really focused on. So he believes he can justify capitalism through the ethic of freedom. And he also believes that inequality is a problem that can be addressed through specific policies, and it’s not a fundamental feature of capitalism. In other words, he doesn’t see capitalism as an engine of inequality the way that Frank Knight did and the way that maybe some critics on the left would.
So he really centers economic freedom because he thinks especially, and he’s really speaking from his vantage point in the universities and speaking to the kind of liberal consensus of the ’50s and ’60s, he thinks economic freedom has been undervalued in the American context. So he really wants to push that forward. He’s really kind of taking political freedom for granted.
Now later in his career when he becomes famous, he’s traveling the world, he spends time in Chile, and this country is now being ruled by a dictator, Augusto Pinochet, who starts introducing economic freedom, but there’s no political freedom. And Milton Friedman believes eventually these two things are going to go together. He tells Pinochet, “you’ve got economic freedom, and eventually it’s going to mean political freedom.” Pinochet is like, “okay, fine, not really interested in that. I want to know what I should do about inflation.”
But then when Milton Friedman leaves Chile, he is attacked and vilified for having been a supporter. It’s interpreted that he’s a supporter of the regime, which he’s not, but he realizes he has talked too much about economic freedom and he hasn’t talked enough about political freedom. He’s kind of assumed political freedom, because he’s come from the American context. So then he starts recalibrating them and saying, you know what? If you don’t have political freedom, you’re never going to be able to hold on to economic freedom. So he sees that they need to go together and they don’t naturally go together. And so he starts to become more clear in talking about political freedom.
Now let’s fast-forward to the end of his life, and he’s witnessing the emergence of what we call the Asian tiger. So capitalist economies that are doing very well, but they don’t have political freedom. But then he observes, you don’t have political freedom, in that you can’t vote in a free and fair election, but they also don’t have a Stasi, they don’t have a KGB. They’re not hauling people off for their wrong opinions. So then he says they have something called civic freedom. And so he kind of defines this third sphere, civic freedom, of debate, discussion, interpersonal relations, but you can’t be political.
So this is a late in life edition. I don’t think it’s fully theorized. I think what it shows is that during the Cold War, he very much believed economic and political freedom, capitalism and freedom, democracy, the United States, capitalism, this all went together. And he starts to see at the end of his life the emergence of different social systems that are using market trading and allocation, but aren’t giving people similar freedoms. And he’s kind of puzzling over that.
Now, he always believes that China will democratize, and he thinks China’s on the path to democratization, in part because Chile does democratize. Eventually Pinochet has voted out and it’s become a democratic capitalist and very prosperous country. And he thinks that’s exactly what’s happening in China. He sees Tiananmen and he doesn’t live long enough to get to where we are now in which doesn’t look like political or civic freedom is coming to China anytime soon.
And so that helped Knight along with Hayek shift from the allocation question, who’s getting what? Are things allocated fairly? To the more structural question of what are the rules of the game that we need to keep this system going? And so for a while that led to the discussion of monopoly. Well, we need rules against concentration or we need the rule of law. Everyone needs to be treated equally. People need to know what they’re up against. And then going back to monetarism, the core of monetarism is a rule. Friedman called it a monetary growth rule.
And so again, what keeps the economic game going is a rule about how much the money grows, that everybody knows. Nobody’s guessing, nobody’s changing the rules to help their side or to help the people they’re friendly with. We all know it’s there, it’s clear, it’s easy. And so that emphasis on rules I think really has a through line. It goes into Hayek’s competitive order, and then it goes into the monetary growth rule. And then today, monetary policy makes use of monetary policy rules. We have not abandoned discretion, but rules are used as a heuristic or a check, and those come out of freedman’s thinking.
And so it’s something… It’s really profound, and it was always counterposed to discretion, which Friedman worried would be subject to capture or political corruption. If you had discretion in policymaking or if you had discretion in these very big areas, then people would stop competing against each other in a market and they would turn their attention to getting control of the rules or the rule makers.
And so that shift towards monetary policy and focusing on stable monetary growth, that becomes really important in the post-’70s era, is one of the basic rules of how capitalist economies should function. And it becomes really important because they see the example of say countries most notably in Latin America where monetary rules weren’t followed and different governments played politics with their currencies, and that created huge upheaval and huge social loss, economic loss, just economic disaster.
So you could have a situation, for instance, if you look at the history of going back to Chile, it has steady growth, steady income growth, steady diminution of inequality, and a high level of discontent within the society and a high level of belief that the society is corrupt and unfair. And that’s what matters, how people feel about it, how people perceive it, it matters. And we saw this recently, you can’t just come out with a bunch of statistics and tell people you’re winning in this game if they feel like they’re losing.
So that goes to all the non-rational factors and all the comparative factors that people have when they think about where they are vis-a-vis other people in society. So we’re just incredibly social creatures. We’re incredibly attuned to our status to rising and falling to where we sit vis-a-vis others. And so that absolutely has to be attended to. It can’t just be an economic analysis.
And to go back to thinking about money, money works because we all believe in it. It’s a form of social trust, and it’s a form of belief and faith in our society and in the other people in it. And when that breaks down, the money system will break down as well.
And he also is very attuned, it’s interesting in his later writings when he’s thinking about this too, sure, I could design a monetary system that would be different, but when I look at history, I see that monetary systems have always say incorporated the role of the state. Because it’s so important to people. And so therefore, my theoretical designs really have to be tempered by what I’ve actually seen happen in history.
And he ended up believing the best thing to do was to put a floor under everybody. And he said, you can get that based on your income. If you have a lot of income, you don’t get it. If you have a little income, you might get a little bit of it. If you have no income, you get enough of it. And he believed in the beginning, you should base that on what was required to buy food. That would be kind of an objective. You could objectively determine the nutrition and the price of food.
And so that for him… It’s important, he says it’s keeping with a liberal polity because it’s not intervening in the price system, it’s not intervening in economic relations. And it does not, in his view, require a bureaucracy to administer. It is not, in his view, require that you qualify for it by virtue of being in a protected class. You just get it as kind of part of your membership in this general citizenship body.
And so that to him was really different than a minimum wage because it did not interfere with the work bargain. His belief about minimum wages was specifically that it priced out unskilled labor. That what an unskilled laborer had to offer was a willingness to work for a very low wage. And if you set the minimum wage too high, businesses instead of hiring that higher-priced labor would not hire. Or we could think of today, they put in an electronic checkout or something like this, where you don’t actually need the labor.
So he really believed the minimum wage had that perverse incentive. Now, this is a live debate on what minimum wages do, and there seems to be a level at which you can set them that they can not have that perverse effect, and in fact can kind of create people with more spending money, that then powers the economy. So he had a very sort of clinical analysis of that rather than an empirical one or a really abstract analysis.
But the minimum income is fascinating because it seems very leftist to us. But what it is it’s purely individualistic. And it never really happened because it was so purely individualistic. Because American social policy typically identifies this group of people is deserving and we’ll give them benefits. So the classic example is soldiers, veterans. Another example is mothers raising dependent children. These people deserve money. The rest of you, you better go out and work. And so Friedman’s proposal, it really caught on in the ’60s. It ultimately went nowhere, but it was no litmus test, no income analysis, just we’re going to give you this much, everyone’s going to get this much. And he decided once mass…
And so interestingly, that’s what happened in the emergency situation of COVID, right? That’s exactly what people did. They followed that model. We just get money out quick. And there’s a lot of discussions still about UBI is something that should be done. And I think it’s always going to be hard to pull off because I think Americans and their elected representatives don’t want to provide a universal benefit. They want to provide a targeted benefit because they believe there’s a moral component here. And Friedman advanced a policy that was really abstract and really it was devoid of judgment. It was pure and beautiful in that way but utterly impractical.
Many people were there, but Friedman and the importance of his books Free to Choose Capitalism, and Freedom, the television series he did. All of these were core components of this American conservative synthesis as it evolved. And I really see that as having broken down. It is scattered into different pieces and we don’t know where they’re going to come back together again. But Friedman’s push for open global markets, unfettered free trade. It’s getting pushback on both the left and the right. That I think is just a major sign that both parties have turned away from this vision. I don’t know what they’ve turned to, but the way that Friedman brought these pieces together, I think that political moment has passed. So that’s what I was trying to talk about with the book title.
There’s another way though in which I think of him also as a conservative, which is that within the field of economics, he went back to this older idea, the quantity theory of money, and said, “This still has value. This can be applied in the modern day. It is something to teach us.” And he pushed back against this trend towards mathematicization, so he kept writing books. You can still pick up a Friedman book and read it, where’s lots of economics articles and output, it’s unreadable unless you’re in the field.
And so I think in that way, he was trying to conserve methodologically and intellectually the traditions of the field, the work that he and particularly Anna Schwartz did, that literal counting of things and deep analysis of data from the field that was the completely unfashionable and his time. Now, we’ve gone back to it with big data and with computers, but he helped bring that forward and preserve that tradition. So I think of him intellectually as a conservative, if you think of the mode of his thought. And so, what makes a great conservative is one who takes those older ideas and makes them fresh for a new time period. I think that’s exactly what he did.
In social policy, there was also a critique. The Great Society had all these ideas of ending poverty, and people came and analyzed them and said, “The programs aren’t helping. In some ways, you’ve actually created engines to trap people in poverty because you’ve given them a benefit and said, if they actually start to work, they lose the benefit. You’ve created all these perverse incentives,” and these ideas were fought out. They were empirical. They were controversial, and they were based on really deep research and really deep argumentation. And so it seems that era has passed. It seems we’re driven much more quickly by moods rather than thought-through ideas. Right now, it seems the ideas they follow the political mood and try to put together the underpinning of it where it really was the opposite for much of the 20th century.
At the same time, the spending plans of the Trump administration are not fiscally conservative in any way, and that was his concern, was not so much with debt but with the feeling that there’s no mechanism to stop the growth of government, that it just grows and grows and grows. And so he ended up believing even deficits aren’t so bad because they make politicians cautious, he thought, about continuing to spend, but I have to believe he would be concerned about the potential threats to the US currency’s position as the world’s reserve currency with increased levels of debt and spending.
He was concerned about low interest rates. He died, I think it’s 2004, 2006, but it was in the beginning, he didn’t see the zero low bound, but he saw low interest rates. And he said, “This isn’t necessarily good. Everyone’s talking about low interest rates as if they’re good, but there should be a price on capital. There should be a price on this. It shouldn’t be so low.” And so he had still the macro insights that I think are important.
There’s a whole shift of American corporations towards focusing on financial investments because the tax breaks they used to get for depreciation for building new factories are not inflation-adjusted, so they no longer pay off in an inflationary environment. And then when Paul Volcker comes in early 1980s, and starts fighting inflation really pushes up interest rates to bring down inflation. And that completely reorders the banking sector because banks had statutory legal limits on the interest they could charge. And once general market interest rates exceeded that, it was proliferation of new financial forms to take advantage of that.
So my point was the era we live in was ushered in by inflation, and then everyone turned against all the formulations we had and said, “Well, these have hollowed out our industrial base. We’ve got too much immigration. We’ve got too much economic openness. We need to reshore. We need to focus. We need to turn against all these things. We need to spend more. We’ve disinvested.” And the net result of that turning away, I argued, is people forgot about inflation. They really forgot it could ever exist. And you had a whole set of theories on the left, modern monetary theory, that basically said, “We don’t really need to worry about inflation. We can spend what we want.” And lo and behold, inflation came back. And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that’s all been made possible by inflation.
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order. So I just think it’s one of these things… This is why I think you should study history because if you had studied history, you would be aware of this. And it’s so easy for people to forget, just like the banks forgot that interest rates could ever go up. They got so used to it, and it’s only a 10, 15-year thing, but to them, that seems like forever. So I really do believe what history teaches you to do is just have a much vaster scope in your vision and then take into account the possibilities of so many things happening that are different than what’s happening today. And so I just hope we don’t forget about inflation entirely, but here’s the thing, it is quite a strong chance that Trump’s policies will initiate even worse inflation, and then they will prove to be his undoing, so the ironies of inflation could be continuing.
The other thing I think he’d really be thinking about, he wrote about this a lot, about occupational licensure and barriers to entry. And he felt like one of the worst things that government does, and sometimes it’s private entities that do this, is create barriers to entry to protect industries and markets. So he talked about this in the case of the medical profession, which I think is actually not a good example because I think we all have a collective investment in having medical doctors be highly trained. But so, for instance, you could look at nail technicians or haircutting. There’s often these licensing requirements, or there’s a big kerfuffle. I think it’s DC passed a law that to run a childcare center you have to have a college degree. Well, what does that do? That disenfranchises a whole bunch of would-be entrepreneurs who don’t happen to have a college degree but probably could be really good at this particular business. So I think he would be saying, “Look out for where private interests have used the state to protect themselves and clear away those types of barriers and let competition through prices guide outcomes.”
But again, Milei is coming from a very different context, a very different country that has seen so much upheaval, so much government intervention, so much inflation, so much political turmoil. He’s probably thinking about it differently than Friedman was thinking about it.
If you’re talking about lower taxes, if freedom is just a code for lower taxes, there has to be… Lower taxes, in general, great, but if you’re one of the top generators of wealth, there has to be some way to ensure that, say, education, right? People prosper when they’re well-educated, that’s when economies do better. Education is generally state-funded, and you need some way to support that and provide for those institutions that structure society that make competition possible. So, I think it’s just a really broad statement, but again, Milei is coming from a really different context. He’s coming from the South American context, from such upheaval, such economic devastation in pursuit of the goal of equality that I think trying to rebalance with that emphasis on freedom, I definitely see where he is coming from.
So Friedman said, “What we should have is floating exchange rates.” This is an idea, again, of instead of having a top-down design of policy, an administered policy, we will have policies set by prices, and you should be able to trade currencies on an open market, they should trade, and they should fluctuate, and that would be fine. Totally outlandish idea, but he was pinpointing the fact that Bretton Woods had an instability, and that instability began to emerge in the time of inflation. So you have more and more dollars being printed, they’re worth less and less. If European nations keep trading their currency for dollars, they’re going to be importing inflation into their own economies. So they say, “We don’t want these dollars. We’d like some gold instead.” And they have the right to go to the treasury, send in an order, and get gold out. And so they start doing this more and more, and it becomes… It’s called the gold drain, and the United States starts running out of gold.
They’re aware this is happening through the ’60s. They’re trying various things to fix it. And when Nixon comes into office in ’68, Friedman sends him a memo, and it says, “This is going to be a real problem.” He says something like, “This is a running sore, and you have to lance it right away,” some very graphic-
And this idea was heresy within the Treasury Department. Everyone’s very committed to the idea of the gold standard convertibility possibility of the United States at the court, the financial system kind of hem and haw. But at this point, Friedman has a very close relationship with George Shultz, and George Shultz is a high-level appointee who will eventually, over the course of the Nixon administration, become the Treasury Secretary.
And so Friedman is feeding Shultz all his ideas about how we should move to floating exchange rates, how we shouldn’t try to reconstruct Bretton Woods and the people in Treasury… It’s funny because I read some of their accounts, and actually Paul Volcker is in the Treasury Department at this time, and he can sense that Friedman is in here somewhere, feeding his boss ideas. He doesn’t quite know. And in the oral history, Shultz talks about this quite a bit, so at any rate, Friedman exerts this behind-the-scenes influence, and what Shultz does is just lets Bretton Woods fade away. He doesn’t make grand pronouncements. It just slowly the world shifts to a regime of… For a while, it was a regime of steady prices, and then they call it a steady regime of changing prices, or whatever. The language changes, the reality changes, and they end up where they are, so that’s a real measure of Friedman’s influence.
If there had been another economist in Shultz’s ear that said, “No, catastrophe is imminent. We have to go back to Bretton Woods,” he probably would’ve worked harder. The US government would’ve worked harder. And so that becomes one of these pieces of globalization. And what people don’t realize is there used to be, in addition to these floating set capital ratios, you couldn’t bring capital in and out of different countries. You had to register. You couldn’t invest. Where all these rules and strictures and the falling of Bretton Woods really blows that all open. It’s a precursor to globalization, so Friedman is right there.
Now, he’s very ambivalent about Nixon. He sees that Nixon is not an honest person. He thinks he’s very intelligent, and Nixon’s dream is to create a new centrist majority. So, he does many things to go back on his supposed economic principles and ideals. So Friedman does not like this. He doesn’t like the price controls. He’s in communication with his old mentor, Arthur Burns, who’s now the Chair of the Federal Reserve. And Burns is basically doing everything wrong in monetary policy. And I describe this in the book in some detail, these anguished letters back and forth, and basically, as I see it, Burns doesn’t have a solid theory of inflation, and the more Friedman pushes him, it’s almost like Burns is willfully ignoring Friedman and doing the opposite of what Friedman says, so Burns is running a very loose monetary policy.
Inflation is quite considerable over the ’70s. We were all spooked by… What did it get to? 6%, something like that. Recently for a very short time, this is inflation going over 10%, hovering at 8% for basically the whole decade of the ’70s, going up and down but with extremely elevated rates. And so, the Carter presidency largely follows foreign policies. A big part of…
So the man who implements this policy, Paul Volcker, he’s definitely influenced by Friedman, buys the big picture of Friedman. He even buys Friedman’s specific technique of the monetary growth rule and of the focus on monetary aggregates, which Friedman has said, “Money matters, aggregates matter, and that’s what money is.” Pretty quickly Volcker finds that because of inflation and the financial deregulation in response to it, the aggregates don’t work the way Friedman said they would. And so the specific policy Friedman recommends, Volcker tries it for a year or so, doesn’t work super well. But what does work is letting interest rates go high, go above inflation, to a point where both the general citizenry and the financial markets believe like, oh, they’re actually serious about inflation. And because we’ve had a decade of inflation with all these presidents saying, Ford, “We’re going to whip inflation now,” that monetary policy has lost credibility. This is why people focus so much on credibility today, because once it’s lost, it’s really hard to get it back. And one way Volcker gets it back is interest rates over 20%. Unemployment very high, as high as 25% in construction sectors. And as this is happening, Milton Friedman is whispering in Reagan’s ear, “This is the right thing. Stay the course. This is going to work.” Now, interestingly, he hates Volcker or Volcker hates him, and Friedman will never give Volcker credit for this policy, but he will give Reagan credit for this policy. But he owes credit himself for keeping Reagan from wobbling on this policy and just pushing it through. And he also tells Reagan, very pragmatically, “You better do this now. You’ve got a four-year term. Do this in the first two years of your term. Things will have turned around by 1984 when you run for reelection and you’ll benefit from it.” And that’s absolutely what happens.
And that’s because people just want one currency that they know. They don’t want a bunch of different options. Even in places where there have been options to do that, they’ve been used very minimally. And then he says, “Secondly, the state always steps in.” He says, “Technically, theoretically, it doesn’t have to. I could draw you a model. I could tell you about how it could work without the state. But in actual reality, all human societies, through time and space, the state eventually becomes involved in the provision of money because it has so many knock-on effects to so many people.” So sure, I think he would, again, find a use case for crypto, think it’s interesting, but I don’t think he would see it as this is going to displace state money and we’re going to have a variety of distributed currencies.
The other thing he really stresses is that a change in a monetary system, it only happens amid great, great crisis. So again, you see in countries where the state is not controlling the money well, that’s when people are more turning to crypto. But he says, because money is so fundamental, there is going to be so much political pressure on any country that gets the currency profoundly wrong that the government will fall and another one will replace it. So if you look at episodes of hyperinflation, they don’t go on very long because they’re so upsetting to people.
And he’d written the prices of different ones he wanted to read. So he had John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, like 50 cents written in the margin. So he began to educate himself. He gave himself a parallel curriculum alongside this very formal economics curriculum. He started reading the traditions of political liberalism and then talking them through with friends and then developing a shared sense of mission. And the incredible thing is, of those friends in the group, they scattered for like 10 years, and then they all came back together. George Stigler, his great friend, was hired at Chicago. Aaron Director, who was his wife’s brother, was at Chicago. So many of these people continued. He became Frank Knight’s colleague. So that was the base. That was what really grew him, that really profound peer group. Now, the other piece I talk about a lot is Friedman was a collaborator, an open-minded collaborator, and he had incredible connections with economists who were women.
And he basically found first in the figure of Anna Schwartz, later in the figure of this group of women who were his wife’s friends, this untapped pool of talent. And so he immersed himself in this whole other world of consumption economics and that resulted in his more technical work on a theory of the consumption function, which is the theory of permanent income. So for Friedman, intellectual work and intellectual production was always done in this very social context, in a context that blended friendship and intellectual partnership. And he only had a handful of friends who were not also economists interested in the same questions he was. So he just lived and breathed ideas all day long.
So not only were they talking about Knight and what he said, but then they started pouring over his work. One of them described it as a general equilibrium system where you had to know all the parts and then all of a sudden it all fit together in a whole. So if we step back, what they were doing was getting inside the mind of a great thinker and understanding the ways it all fit together and then testing their ideas against Knight’s. And what’s fascinating is, one of the first papers that Friedman publishes in statistics is a rebuttal of Frank Knight. He publishes a rebuttal of Frank Knight’s ideas about risk and uncertainty. And Frank Knight, he took a black swan argument. He said, “Risk, you can calculate. Uncertainty, you can’t existentially philosophically. You can’t get your hands around it. It is the Black Swan.”
And Friedman publishes this statistical paper and he says, “I can put uncertainty on a graph.” And so there’s that Freudian killing of the father element when he comes back and he will in some ways turn his back on Knight’s approach and Knight’s pessimism even while it’s a foundation of his thinking.
He would also regularly do these trips to New York to see Anna Schwartz, his 12-year collaborator. Phone calls were really expensive. They did have quite an extensive correspondence, but then they would do these meetings. So he would basically come in at the beginning of the summer going to Rahway, stop in New York, see Schwartz, and then again on the way back to Chicago. So he’d have these deep check-ins at that point. The other thing that happened is people would come visit him in New Hampshire. He had his studio separate from the house, he would go and he would work, and then at night his friends would come. His friends were all economists. There’s a whole cluster of economists. They all clustered within driving distance of the Dartmouth Library so that they could get their hands on books. And so they would come over and then they would argue and talk into the night. So I think he did need that deep focus time, but he also lived a very engaged, very embedded social life.
He was a very private man, very shy, very introverted, and he exerted this quiet intellectual influence on all of his friends. So I think that was just a family trait of being more quiet, preferring to be behind the scenes. It wouldn’t have worked any other way because Friedman was so out there, so extroverted. And there’s a bit of a sad thing she said, she said, “When I married Milton, I lost half of my conversations. When David came along, I lost the other half.” So this is a household that was just dominated by male voices in which she didn’t have a lot of room. What was tricky for me in my research is she didn’t leave much of a trace. She put together Milton Friedman’s archive and she took herself out of it.
I really had trouble finding her actual voice in the historical documents, and she didn’t want to leave that behind, so this absolute essential piece of his success. Because she’s the one who pushed him to do the Newsweek column to do Free To Choose. And she really wrote Capitalism and Freedom. She took all his random notes and she put them together into a book. And that became this testimony of his ideas. But she shared many of his ideas and when I think of Friedman, if you take away Anna Schwartz, if you take away Rose Friedman, if you take away the other woman who collaborated with him, you have a much thinner resume than the one he actually has.
Now, it’s tricky because selfishness has so many strong and negative connotations, and she meant I think something closer to self-actualization, because she really tried to create this idea and express the idea that to be truly selfish did not mean trampling on others. It meant just being motivated by your own internal measures and metrics. And so in her fiction, she tries to show this by showing the false selfishness of some of Peter Keating, who’s an architect who steps over everybody to advance his career. And she says, “That’s not true selfishness because true selfishness would recognize it’s false to take others’ work and pass it off as your own.”
Now, the other big piece of objectivism is a very approach that’s really inspired and related to Friedrich Nietzsche’s idea of revaluing values or a genealogy of morals. And so she says, ” What’s happened here is Western culture has converged on this idea of altruism as good. Being selfless and altruistic is good. And this has led us to communism and has led us to devalue the individual in favor of the collective. So what we need is a new moral code which elevates selfishness, which elevates the individual, and which takes all the things that we have been told are bad and actually says their values.” This is what she’s trying to do with objectivism. I mean, it is about as ambitious of an intellectual project as there can be, and that’s what really draws people in.
Yet at the same time, she’s flying in the face of the way human morals and ethics and societies have evolved, and she’s not able to single-handedly recreate them the way she wants them to be.
And that to Rand was the ideal. You’re not thinking of other people. You’re an island unto yourself. You’re focused on your own goals, your own capacities, and you’re not doing it to impress other people or to be better than other people or to dominate other people. You’re doing it because expressing your inner soul in a way. So that has been very captivating to so many, and the Fountainhead is one of those books we talked about that causes, people read it and they make changes in their life or they feel called to their higher self.
So they print it and it becomes a bestseller just through word of mouth. So it’s not advertised. It gets one good book review, but people tell each other how much they like this book. And it keeps printing and selling out printings. It’s made into a movie. And so it lands in this time when Americans are engaged in this great collective endeavor of World War Two. They’re making all kinds of sacrifices for the collective and I think, paradoxically, as they do that, they’re drawn to this vision of someone who doesn’t have to compromise at all, who is leading their life exactly as they want to. Meanwhile, they might be sleeping on an ocean liner because they’ve been drafted to fight in this war, and they’re reading The Fountainhead and they’re feeling better about themselves.
And so it’s also really interesting. The Fountainhead is hugely popular in India, which is fascinating, and talk to people about this and they basically say, “This book comes like a breath of fresh air into a very traditional and conformist culture. And people just latch onto it and they love it, and it gives them that feeling of freedom and possibility that they’re hoping for.”
He’s part of this tight-knit group. In this tight-knit group, they think of themselves, “We are all individualists. We’re dedicated to individualism and capitalism. We’re different than everybody else.” Over time, they all come to share Ayn Rand’s views and opinions on everything, from music to art, to clothes. She gets a dining room table and a bunch of them get the same dining room table, and it becomes incredibly conformist, because they’ve all believed they’re acting rationally. And they believe that to act rationally is to agree with Ayn Rand and they believe there’s no other way to make decisions than rationality. To disagree with her is to be irrational. They don’t want to be irrational. People get really caught up in this very damaging cult-like circle around her.
He becomes completely converted to the objectivist worldview. Rand begins counseling him and his girlfriend about their relationship, very intense thing. Then eventually they graduate from college and they both enroll in a graduate program in Columbia and they leave. After they’ve left, Ayn Rand is just bereft. And within a few months she packs up her home and she moves to New York. “Here I am. I like New York better.” That becomes the seedbed of The Collective. The Brandens, they get married. They change their name to Branden. They’ve never publicly spoken on this, but many people have pointed out it has the word Rand in the name. It’s some type of acknowledgement of how important she is to them. Time goes on, and romantic feelings develop between Ayn Rand and Nathaniel Branden, who’s some 20 years her junior. They discuss them and they realize that rationality has led them to the conclusion that they should be lovers.
People absolutely hate this book. And Rand is not Howard Roark. She falls into a deep depression because her masterpiece has been rejected. Then the romantic relationship ends, but the close personal relationship continues. And then over time Branden, who’s still married to his wife, begins an affair with another young woman. At this point he has started the Nathaniel Branden Institute to teach objectivism. He’s making good money. He’s becoming quite famous.
Ayn Rand knows something is going on, but she can’t quite figure it out. And finally, Barbara, Branden says to Nathaniel Branden, “You know, you have to tell her. This has just gone on too long.” She finds out and the whole thing blows up, and she exiles him and she breaks off contact with him. And nobody has ever told what happens. It’s called the [inaudible 02:58:23]. Objectivism breaks in two, because some people say, “How could Ayn Rand do anything wrong?” And other people say, ” What is this letter all about? And what did Nathaniel Branden do? I’m not just going to take her word for it. I need more information.” Then a bunch of people read all the accounts of this. A bunch of people are like, “Okay, they were having an affair.” And a bunch of other people are like, “No, that couldn’t possibly be happening.”
The whole thing breaks up. But what I argue in my book is actually this is to the benefit of Rand’s ideas, because Rand herself was so controlling over her ideas. And now that she steps back from a public role, objectivism flows into the student libertarian movement. Some objectivists become conservatives. It just spreads out more generally, and you don’t have to drink the Kool-Aid. You don’t have to take the official course. Nathaniel Branden goes on to be part of the self-esteem movement, Human Potential Movement, California and Ayn Rand lives another 10 years or so, but she doesn’t do major work after that.
She never really fits in. She’s not conventionally beautiful by any stretch of the imagination. She struggles with her weight and she doesn’t consider herself to have a beautiful face. She’s very independent. She meets none of the metrics of traditional femininity at all. She finds love with a man who is very handsome but very passive. Yet she writes in all her fiction about strong manly heroes. There seems to be like a projection. The man she’s actually with is not a strong manly hero. The hero she writes about, she probably wouldn’t be able to be in the same room with them for more than one minute before they got in a raging argument, right? Then she develops this theory about women and men in that a woman should worship her man, and a woman finds her true expression in worshiping the man she’s with. Again, this is not at all how Ayn Rand lives her life.
This is like this. I would say compensatory theory for her lack of ability to conform to the gender norms of her day. She then articulates them in a very strong and almost distorted and exaggerated way to compensate for the fact that she doesn’t actually meet them, can’t actually enact them. The rape scene to some degree embodies that idea that to some degree that the woman should worship the man. I tend to read it more in terms of literary genre. Rand is a screenwriter, a consumer of movies, and that rape scene is paradigmatic for the romance genre. In other words, these are like pulpy romance novels. The hero rapes the heroine and then they fall in love. That’s just the trope of how it works.
It’s crazy when you read it, but if you were reading a bunch of novels in this genre, you would find this is very standard. But that is a huge part of this appeal at the time. There’s this feminist who hates Rand, Susan Brownmiller, and she wants to write an angry denunciation of the rape scene. So she goes to get The fountainhead and she’s wondering how is she ever going to find the scene in this 800 page book? It’s a library copy because she doesn’t want to buy it, and it just falls open to the rape scene because everybody’s gone and read it because it’s very racy and explicit for that time. I’m almost positive she also knew that like, “If I put in this kind of taboo-breaking sex scene, that’s also going to probably be why people tell their friends about it.” I think it’s a mess. I think all of the gender and sexuality stuff that she states is just a total mess.
She would denounce people for being homosexual. There’s a whole actual literature of gay men wrestling with Rand and what she says about gay people. Yeah, it’s hard to make sense of. I want to be charitable. I just think of the enormous pressure she was under in the culture she was raised in, the expectations that were placed upon her, and her just utter inability to meet any of them. And it came out in this very tortured set of ideals that she tried to promote. And this lack of ability was probably too painful to introspect and to think about that. So she just tried to rationalize her way through it, and it came out in these very strange theories.
And I got a lot of pushback for that. I think now people are more open to it, but I think the people who compile these lists really dislike her work and they think it’s shallow because they find her fiction overdrawn. They find her work, in the mythic register, simple. And she’s also a grand systematic thinker in an age that’s over systems. She’s almost creating an inverse Marxism, right? Marx was writing in 1848. He’s not a thinker of the mid 20th century. I think that’s part of it, the lack of a legacy and the dislike of what she had to say, and the feeling that she’s too detached. Her insights are not insights because they’re too idealized rather than being rooted in a theory of human nature that people find plausible.
Friedman’s a different case in that he joins an established tradition of thought that’s been institutionalized in universities. So people are signing up and paying money and getting credential to learn these ideas. To my mind, these are two different ways but really emblematic ways of how ideas spread. Rand, I think of as more bottom up. People encounter the idea in a book. They’re blown away by it, or they imbibe it without even realizing they’re imbibing it, and then they’re like, “Well, maybe I don’t like Franklin Roosevelt so much.” Or, “Maybe I’ll look at another time at Barry Goldwater.” Then whereas Friedman, you get the idea more top down. I know I’m getting the idea. I know I’m being positioned within a elite discourse of economics. I think they go top-down and bottom-up, and then they hit the events, right?
Friedman’s ideas wouldn’t have gone anywhere without that episode of stagflation that really made people think they proved out. And I think Rand’s ideas really caught fire in Cold War America, that’s looking for a statement of like, “What does it mean to be an individual? What does it mean to live in this mass society?” Because it’s also a time of great social conformity, where people are suddenly… They’re working for large corporations. They’ve been served in a large military. The United States is stepping out onto the world stage. Everything is bigger. What does it mean to be an individual in that world? That’s where Rand’s ideas catch fire. I think a lot about that. About how they trickle through different levels of society, and then how ideas collide with experience I think is critical.
The question though is why does it catch fire? Why does it draw people into political allegiance? I think in the case of communism, it’s this dream of a more ethical world, dream of equality, dream of the powerless rising up against the powerful. That’s drawn in so many. Then you had the whole edition of Leninism, which gave a international cast to that and helped people think about what are the relations between poorer and richer countries and what can we expect out of them and what might happen. Gave us a framework for thinking about that in a time when the world was becoming more interconnected and those differences were becoming more obvious. Fascism to me is unleashing more something dark and primal within people, and it’s more a permission structure to indulge in that that is normally not there. Those impulses are normally channeled or held down, and it seems that when the fascist regimes come into power, they give people permission to let those forces out.
I make my students do it, and they suffer. I think they see it’s worthwhile, but it’s no fun to read Derrida. But somehow it’s trickled down into how do we go from Derrida to Tumblr? And I realized like, “Oh, this has happened with postmodernism.” It’s followed the same path, say, from Milton Friedman’s economic theory to free to choose on YouTube. We’ve had a similar path of high French theory down to Tumblr, and I sexually identify as an attack helicopter or whatever it may be. That was really interesting. Then I also thought, “Well…” At the same time, this is clearly a structure of meaning. And I actually think it’s followed the same path of objectivism, which is distilled down and then turning into its opposite.
So if objectivism was a group of people who considered themselves individualists, who ended up deeply conforming to the dictates of a charismatic leader. Postmodernism started about disrupting binaries. We’re going to be fluid. We’re going to go beyond the border. We’re going to disrupt the binary. And it’s devolved in its popular forms to the re-inscribing of many different binaries. Oppressor and oppressed has become this paradigmatic set of glasses you put on to understand the world. I think the dynamics are very, very similar. I think it’s something in the traffic of the idea from its pure form to its popular form, and then how it gets politicized or mobilized in different ways. And behind it all, I think, is this human longing for meaning and the inadequacy of the traditional ways that need was met at this point in time.
Yeah, I like to go deep. It’s really interesting to me. And I should say in both of these cases, I’ve done it in an institutional structure. I don’t know that I would do it independently. The first was a graduate program in history, was at UC Berkeley. I had coursework. Then I had structures, and I did have people to check in with and read, but I had a great deal of latitude. I’m very grateful for… People are like, “You wrote a dissertation on Ayn Rand at Berkeley?” I’m like, “Yeah, hell, I did.” Berkeley’s like… It’s a great place. At the time I was there, there was absolute room for free inquiry.
And so then they head off to work for a politician, to work for a think tank, to work for a party. t’s absolute traffic. Now, not everyone. There’s plenty of people who read Ayn Rand who don’t take the politics in. It’s a nice story. It’s interesting, just an episode in their life. But for others, it’s really foundational. It really changes them.
So those were the people I wanted to track very deliberately. I wasn’t trying to do in the round everything about Ayn Rand. I was like Ayn Rand and the American Right, Goddess of the Market. Ayn Rand and the American Right is the title. So where did they take her, those who took her in this political direction? What difference did she make?
Similarly, I had read some Friedman, but not a lot. So I first is like, “Let me read the major stuff, get oriented,” and then just dive into the archive and see what’s there. Who are they talking to? What’s going on? in Rand’s case, I was interested in her in the United States, not her in Russia. I didn’t have the language skills to do that. So I start her in the United States, and I start when she publishes her first book, and she starts getting letters. And who is she writing to? Who’s writing to her?
And then I start to uncover this world of nascent conservatism. And I’m putting that together. And once I have enough, I say, “Well, that’s a chapter.” I’m going to cover that chapter. And then there’s going to be the book has come out. And so now, I need to start a different chapter. What’s her life after the book has been published?
And then I look for that. Although I have this very high level structure, it’s coming out of the archive, the material I’m finding. And if I’m not finding the material there, I won’t cover it in great detail, or if I’ve decided it’s outside my ambit, I’m not going to go into great depth on it.
And then also for me, what was really helpful is that because I teach and I am explaining the broad sweep of 20th century history, so I know that Rand’s involved in a labor action at Warner Brothers, but through my teaching, I realized, “Oh, yes, this is a moment of labor strikes across the country.”
And so then that really changes the origin story of Atlas Shrugged because she’s looking at labor actions, and she originally thinking of the book as being called The Strike. So she’s really responding in real time and being inspired by what’s happening in the mid-1940s in the United States. So then I can take that and run with that and figure out where to go.
I try to keep my own views out pretty much. I try to give the fairest possible rendition I can of each thinker. If I find someone really disturbing, I might side bar at the end of the lecture and say, “I find this unsettling, and this tells me something about myself.” But most of the time, I’m bringing people into the biography of a great thinker, the context of them. And then, in the lecture, we’ll literally read the work together, and we’ll talk about it.
And I’ll ask the students, “What are you finding here? What’s jumping out at you?” Kind of breaking down the language and really teaching them how to do deep reading. So I feel like that is my contribution right now. We’re having trouble reading collectively. We’re having trouble paying attention collectively, and I’m trying to cultivate their skills to doing that and showing them how I do it, and also modeling like, “This is how I would read a text. This is what jumps out to me when I look at Thomas Kuhn or something like this,” and just show them that studying a history of ideas is really fun. I feel incredibly privileged to do it.
And the other thing is, I think this is the time for students in college figuring out who they are. Their minds are developing and growing. They can really handle complicated hard ideas. They don’t always have the context behind them. So I need to give them the hard ideas and then show them this is kind of the context of what’s happening in the world. But really, I’m showing them the landscape. I don’t have time to go deep. We have a 10-week quarter giving them a flyover. And then I want them to know how to go deep and know where they want to go deep.
And so I guess I’m approaching it with this sort of charity, but also with, I don’t have huge expectations. I’m not expecting to have the light shine on me. I’m not expecting to agree. I’m like, “I can be very clinical about it.” So that’s worked for me. It might not work for others.
And then, I just try to find the humor in it. How funny is it, these different aspects of them? When teaching my students about Oliver Wendell Holmes, his dad wrote a poem about him. He called him the astronaut about how he came from outer space. He seemed like he came from outer space. I’m like, “This is his dad’s view of his son.” That’s how weird of a guy he was.
And so I try to find that, keep alert for those funny kind of human touches that these are ultimately just people, people with ideas that they spent enough time polishing up and developing that we still want to read about them 100 years later.
And in some cases, that may be true, but she’s also unloosing some of the light forces in terms of reflecting on yourself and trying to be true. But definitely, there are ideas that are dangerous to play with. And there are ideas that I think give license to the darker sides of human nature. But I think you can see that in the historical record. So I think that it’s possible to show that. And obviously, there’s some places like Germany. They think the ideas are so dangerous, they can’t be allowed to circulate. And in some contexts, that may absolutely be true.
So where do ideas come from? You have Milton Friedman sitting there after Rutger’s trying to figure out what he can do about the Great Depression. Do you ever think about this? I sometimes think aliens are actually ideas. They’re just kind of travel through human brains and captivate us. And we get all real excited with the monolith in 2001 Space Odyssey, a monolith lands, and everybody gets excited. And somehow this idea just gets everybody to be on the same page, and it reverberates through the community, and then that results in an implementation of some action that results in us figuring out that that idea was actually bad, and we learn new ideas. But it feels like the idea is right in the show.
So again, that’s some of the work of what I do as an intellectual historian. It’s like, “Let’s become aware. Let’s realize that you’re carrying a map that’s orienting you to the world in a certain way.” And so I think you have to work really, really hard to have an original idea. And even then, it’s not a completely original idea. It’s a reworking and a reassembling of ideas others have had.
So I definitely think it’s possible to create autonomy in the realm of ideas and to be an autonomous consumer of ideas. But I think, on balance, most people are not. And that’s fine. They want to have experiences. They want to do other things with their life.
Please allow me to say a few words about my interview with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, now that a few days have passed and I’ve had the chance to think about the conversation itself, the response, future upcoming conversations, and what it all means for the war in Ukraine, for global geopolitics, and for us humans in general.
I’ve gotten a lot of heartfelt positive words from all sides, including, at least so far, literally everybody who knows me personally inside Ukraine, which includes a lot of soldiers and many high profile figures, some who are supportive of the president, and some who are critical of him.
Literally, all private communication has been positive and supportive. This is usually not the case with me. Friends usually will write to me to criticize and to disagree. That’s the whole point of friendship, to argue and have fun doing it. There was none of that here, at least so far. So thank you for your support and kind words. It means the world.
The most common message was, please keep pushing for peace. I will. But online on the interwebs, I saw a lot of attacks sometimes from swarms of online accounts which, of course, makes me suspicious about the origin of those attacks.
One of my friends in Ukraine, who by the way thinks the attacks are all propped out by Ukrainian bot farms, said, “There’s no need to say anything extra. Let the interview stand on its own. Just keep focused on the mission of pushing for peace.” Basically, he’s a Ukrainian version of my other friend, Joe Rogan, who to this day says, “Don’t read the comments.”
This is generally good advice and I try to follow it. But I’m also human being. I wear my heart on my sleeve. And this interview, this war for me is deeply personal. And the level of vitriol, misrepresentation, and lies about the conversation and about me personally was particularly intense and disingenuous. So I thought I would use this opportunity to say a few words, just speak a bit more about how I approach this conversation with President Zelensky and conversations in general.
This interview is something I poured my heart and soul into preparing a lot. I’ve described parts of the preparation process I follow in the outro to the Zelensky conversation. But in general, let me say that I’ve read a lot, listened to a lot, and had a lot of private conversations with people on the ground. I have many flaws. But being unprepared for this conversation is not one of them.
Two low effort attacks got to me a bit, if I’m being honest though I am learning to take it all in stride. First attack is that I’m unprepared, uninformed or naive. I don’t give a damn about the trolls, but I want people who listen to me, who support me, who care about my words, to know that this is not the case. It never will be the case for future conversations, especially ones of this importance. I work extremely hard to prepare.
Second low effort attack that got to me a bit is that I’m a shill for Zelensky or a shill for Putin. Both accusations were hurled readily and freely by the online mob of all persuasions by the left and the right in the United States and Europe by the pro and the anti-Zelensky people in Ukraine or of Ukrainian origins and by the pro and anti-Putin people in Russia or of Russian origins.
As I’ve said over and over, this is not the case. I will never be the case. I’m a shill for no one. More than that, I just simply refuse to be caught in any one single echo chamber. It’s an ongoing battle of course, because social media algorithms and the various dogmatic groups and tribes out there want to pull you in to their warm embrace of belonging. And humans want to belong.
But the cost of the path I have chosen is that I will never belong to any one group. In the end, like many of us must, I walk alone. And I try to do my best to do what is right to my independent heart and mind, not what is popular with any one group.
My goals for this conversation were twofold. First, give a large platform to President Zelensky to explain his perspective on the war and to do so in a way that brings out the best in who he is as a leader and human being. Second goal was to push for peace, and to give him every opportunity possible to signal that he’s ready to make peace, and to provide his vision for what that might look like.
And just to be clear, by peace, I mean long-lasting peace that minimizes suffering of people in the region and maximizes the flourishing of humanity in the coming decades. The war in Ukraine has led to over one million casualties and growing every single day. For some people torn apart by loss, tormented, and forced into a state of anger and hate, peace is a dirty word. To them, nothing less than justice must be accepted.
I hear this pain. I’ve seen the bodies and the suffering. It’s true. Peace will not bring back your loved ones. But it’ll prevent further slaughter of more people, each of whom are someone else’s loved ones. So again, the second goal of this conversation was to push for this kind of peace.
So how did I approach it? Every conversation is its own puzzle. So let me try to explain my approach for this one. As I’ve said, I read and listened to a lot of material since February 24th, 2022. There would be many weeks over the past three years where I would spend every day over eight hours a day of focused reading and research.
There were several rabbit holes that I consistently returned to and researched. But the most important line of inquiry was always peace talks, not just in this war, but in other wars in modern history. For this specific war, as part of the background prep, I would take notes on every single perspective I could find on every single major diplomatic meeting and negotiation that happened in Ukraine-Russia relations since 1991.
There is a lot of material to go through. And there are a lot of perspectives, even on the very 2019 meeting that President Zelensky spoke about in this podcast. Just as a small but important example, Andrii Bogdan was interviewed twice by Dmytro Gordon and gave a deep inside look of the administration of President Zelensky, including that very 2019 meeting.
The two interviews are seven and a half hours by the way. And from my interviewer perspective, are a masterclass of interviewing. Andrii Bogdan worked directly with President Zelensky as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. He was there for the 2019 face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin at the Paris Summit, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This was part of the Normandy Format Peace Talks.
In those two interviews, Andrii Bogdan gave a very different perspective on that 2019 meeting than did President Zelensky to me in our conversation, the perspective being that the failure to negotiate a ceasefire and peace was not a simple one-sided story.
I don’t think this is the right time for me to dive into that data point and be critical. I’m not interested in being critical for the sake of criticism. I am interested once again in productive conversations, critical or otherwise, that push towards peace, the kind I described earlier. This is merely an example of a data point I was collecting in my brain.
There are many, many others. But all of it taken together made it clear to me, and I still believe this, that it is indeed very difficult but possible to negotiate long-lasting peace with Vladimir Putin. It’s certainly true that Ukraine is best positioned to negotiate from a place of strength. After the invasion of February 24th, 2022, I believe there were three chances where peace was most achievable. First chance was March and April of 2022 with a successful defense of the north. Second chance was the fall of 2022 with the successful counteroffensive in Kherson and Kharkiv.
The third chance is now. As he has stated multiple times publicly, Donald Trump is very interested in making peace. It is likely that the US financial support for this war will continue to dwindle. So the leverage and the timing for peace negotiation is now. There is unlikely to be another chance like this for a long time.
Just to zoom out on the conversation piece of this, I interviewed Donald Trump and may do so again. I interviewed Volodymyr Zelensky and may do so again. And it seems likely that I will interview Vladimir Putin in Russia in the Kremlin. I understand the risks and accept them. The risks for me are not important. I’m not important. I merely want to do my small part in pushing for peace in a moment in history when there’s a real chance for that piece to actually be achieved.
I may be speaking too long, I’m sorry, but I can probably speak for many more hours. So this is in fact me trying to be brief. So again, my two goals were to bring out the best in the President Zelensky as a leader and a human being, and to give him every opportunity possible to signal that he’s ready to make peace and to lay out his vision for what that piece might look like.
Like I said, step one through 10 is prepare well. I did. But step 11 is the actual conversation. They’re the specific psychological and personality quirks and qualities of the guests matter a lot. My job is to try to cut through the bullshit walls we put up as human beings and reveal directly or indirectly who the person truly is and how they think.
With Zelensky, he is a deeply empathic and emotional human who personally feels the suffering of the people of Ukraine in this war. This is a strength and perhaps also a weakness, but it is an important part of the reason why I said many times that he is a truly historic figure.
Very few leaders in recent history would be able to pull off what he did, to stay in Kiev, to unite the country, to convince the west to join the war effort to the degree they did. He is also a showman. To borrow the title of the biography, I recommended a man with many layers of humor and wit, but also ego and temper, sometimes fully self-aware and sometimes losing himself in the emotional rollercoaster of a painful memory or a turn of phrase that he can use as a springboard for a angry soliloquy.
Add to this, the fact that we didn’t agree to anything, what we will talk about or how long we will talk about it. The interview could have easily been five minutes or three hours. So I had to quickly gain his trust enough to open up and stay for a long-form conversation, but push him enough to reveal the complexities of his thought process and his situation.
This is where humor and camaraderie was essential. And I would return to it often though it was very difficult given the stakes, the heaviness, the seriousness of the topic of the war. So in this case, the approach I followed for this conversation is constant nudges and questions about peace, often using almost childlike statements or questions.
I generally like these kinds of questions. On the surface, they may seem naive, but they’re not. They are often profound in their simplicity, like a lot of questions that children ask. Remember, it was a child who pointed out that the emperor was not wearing any clothes. I like the simplicity, the purity, the boldness of such questions to cut through the bullshit to the truth. And that truth is that hundreds of thousands of people died in this war and are dying every day, and all the other problems from corruption, to suspended elections, to censorship cannot be solved until peace is made.
I give the president every single chance to signal willingness to negotiate, knowing that both Trump and Putin will listen to this conversation. I don’t think he took it and, instead, chose to speak very crude words towards Vladimir Putin. This is fully understandable, but not directly productive to negotiation.
To clarify, I have hosted many conversations that were intensely critical of Vladimir Putin from Serhii Plokhy to Stephen Kotkin. But this conversation is with a world leader speaking about another world leader during a opportunity for peace. Crude words of disrespect while powerful may harm negotiations. Peacemaking in this situation requires compromise in order to avoid further death and suffering. And I believe it requires treating the other leader with the seriousness you expect him to treat you with.
This is what I was pushing for, all that while also putting my ego aside and letting the president shine, which is necessary to accomplish both goals one and two that I mentioned previously. This is also why I wanted the president to speak about Elon and Trump to extend the olive branch for further avenues of peacemaking.
This is not about politics. It is once again simply about peace. Now, all of this, my words, my attempts were taken out of context and used to attack me by some online mobs. As an example, President Zelensky said in a mocking tone that he thinks that Vladimir Putin is simply irritated by people who are alive in Ukraine. And I answered, quote, “If you believe this, it will be very difficult to negotiate.” If you think that the president of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in this country,. And he conducts, yes, destructive military actions. The president interrupted me at this point and said, “Who are you talking about now? Who loves this country?”
And I said, “Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love this country?”And the President answered, “No.” Again, this is not a podcast conversation with a historian or activist. And I somehow out of nowhere, just for fun, [inaudible 03:52:38] poetic about Putin’s or Zelensky’s or Trump’s love of nation. It is a conversation with a world leader discussing the opportunity to negotiate peace when a large number of people are dying every single day. Even if the hard ball’s over with hate, leadership now requires sitting at the negotiation table and compromising.
This may be painful, but it is necessary. There are a few other places in the conversation where some online mobs took my words out of context and used them to call me naive and to call for more war, saying peace is impossible with a man who they claim is the second coming of Hitler.
My friends, if you make such attacks on this conversation, it is in fact you who are naive and ignorant of the facts of history and geopolitics. Peace must be made now in order for death and suffering to stop, in order for Ukraine to have a chance to flourish, and in order for the drums of a global war to stop beating, a global war that would cripple humanity. This was my goal once again to push for peace. And I will continue this effort to the best of my ability. Thank you. I love you all.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:48 – Milton Friedman
- 15:41 – The Great Depression
- 29:58 – Schools of economic thought
- 41:05 – Keynesian economics
- 48:53 – Laissez-faire
- 56:43 – Friedrich Hayek
- 1:02:01 – Money and monetarism
- 1:16:46 – Stagflation
- 1:21:39 – Moral case for capitalism
- 1:25:35 – Freedom
- 1:30:34 – Ethics of competition
- 1:34:20 – Win-win solutions
- 1:36:09 – Corruption
- 1:38:33 – Government intervention
- 1:44:53 – Conservatism
- 1:51:16 – Donald Trump
- 1:53:52 – Inflation
- 1:58:21 – DOGE
- 2:03:40 – Javier Milei
- 2:08:46 – Richard Nixon
- 2:16:00 – Ronald Reagan
- 2:19:07 – Cryptocurrency
- 2:34:23 – Ayn Rand
- 2:42:01 – The Fountainhead
- 2:53:41 – Sex and power dynamics
- 3:09:47 – Evolution of ideas in history
- 3:17:15 – Postmodernism
- 3:28:16 – Advice to students
- 3:36:32 – Lex reflects on Volodymyr Zelenskyy interview
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Jennifer Burns, a historian of ideas including the evolution of economic, political, and social ideas in the United States in the 20th century to today. She wrote two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and the other on Ayn Rand, both of which I highly recommend. This was a super technical and super fascinating conversation. At the end, I make a few comments about my previous conversation with President Zelensky for those of you who may be interested. This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, dear friends, here’s Jennifer Burns.
The following is a conversation with Jennifer Burns, a historian of ideas including the evolution of economic, political, and social ideas in the United States in the 20th century to today. She wrote two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and the other on Ayn Rand, both of which I highly recommend. This was a super technical and super fascinating conversation. At the end, I make a few comments about my previous conversation with President Zelensky for those of you who may be interested. This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, dear friends, here’s Jennifer Burns.
Milton Friedman
Lex Fridman
You have written two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and one on Ayn Rand. So if we can, we will focus on each one separately, but first, let’s talk about the ideas that two of them held in common, the value of individual freedom, skepticism of collectivism, and the ethics of capitalism. Can you talk about the big picture ideas they converge on?
You have written two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and one on Ayn Rand. So if we can, we will focus on each one separately, but first, let’s talk about the ideas that two of them held in common, the value of individual freedom, skepticism of collectivism, and the ethics of capitalism. Can you talk about the big picture ideas they converge on?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. So, Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand, in the biggest picture, they’re both individualists, and they’re skeptical of collectivities and collectivism. So, their unit of analysis is the individual. What’s good for the individual? What works for the individual? Their understanding of society flows from that. They also both use this focus on individualism to justify and to support capitalism as a social and economic system. So, we can put them in a similar category. We can call them individualists. We could call them libertarians of a sort. They’re also really different in how they approach capitalism, how they approach thinking.
Yeah. So, Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand, in the biggest picture, they’re both individualists, and they’re skeptical of collectivities and collectivism. So, their unit of analysis is the individual. What’s good for the individual? What works for the individual? Their understanding of society flows from that. They also both use this focus on individualism to justify and to support capitalism as a social and economic system. So, we can put them in a similar category. We can call them individualists. We could call them libertarians of a sort. They’re also really different in how they approach capitalism, how they approach thinking.
Ayn Rand developed her own moral and philosophical system to justify individualism, and to connect the individual to capitalism, and to support capitalism as a social and economic system. Friedman struggles a bit more with how to justify capitalism, and he’ll ultimately come down to freedom as his core value, like his God, as he says. So, freedom does connect back to the individual, but he’s not justifying capitalism for his own sake. He’s justifying it for its ability to underwrite freedom in a social sense and also in the individual sense
Lex Fridman
At a high level, are there interesting differences between them? You already mentioned a few, maybe in terms of who they are personally, maybe in terms of how they approach the justification for capitalism, maybe other ways.
At a high level, are there interesting differences between them? You already mentioned a few, maybe in terms of who they are personally, maybe in terms of how they approach the justification for capitalism, maybe other ways.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, for sure. So beyond this idea that Milton Friedman takes a while to come to his justification of capitalism, whereas Ayn Rand has it from the start. She really focuses on the core quality of rationalism and rationality. Rationality is the defining feature of human beings, and so she works from there, whereas Milton Friedman eventually converges on this idea of freedom. So, that’s one part of it. The other is their intellectual styles are really, really different. Their interpersonal styles are really different.
Yeah, for sure. So beyond this idea that Milton Friedman takes a while to come to his justification of capitalism, whereas Ayn Rand has it from the start. She really focuses on the core quality of rationalism and rationality. Rationality is the defining feature of human beings, and so she works from there, whereas Milton Friedman eventually converges on this idea of freedom. So, that’s one part of it. The other is their intellectual styles are really, really different. Their interpersonal styles are really different.
So, Friedman has big ideas, big principles that guide him, but he’s also deeply empirical. He spends most of his career doing historical research, economic research, pulling data from how people actually make economic decisions, and live in the world, and using them to test and refine his theories. Where Rand, to some degree, we could say she’s empirical and that she lives through the Russian Revolution, and takes a very big lesson from that, but her style of thinking is really first principles, an axiomatic approach going from the basic idea of rationality, and then playing it out in different spheres.
So, those are just very different intellectual approaches, and then they lead in some ways to really different ways of thinking about how you get things done in the world. Ayn Rand is a purist. She wants to start with the pure belief. She doesn’t want it to be diluted. One of her favorite sayings was, “It’s earlier than you think.” In other words, we’re still moving towards a place where we can really hold and express these ideals purely. Friedman, although he didn’t use this terminology, he was much more half a loaf guy like, “I’ll take what I can get, and then I’ll try to move to where I really want to be.” But he is able to compromise, especially when he moves from being an economist into being more of a political thinker.
So, that’s a really different intellectual style, and then it also plays out in their lives, and that Ayn Rand is incredibly schismatic. I mean, she wants her friends to believe what she believes and support what she supports. She’s willing to break a relationship if it doesn’t match. Milton Friedman, he also does tend to have friends who agree with him, yet he’s always willing to debate his opponents, and he’s willing to do so with a smile on his face. He’s a happy warrior, and he actually will win a lot of debates simply by his emotional affect and his cheerfulness and his confidence, where Rand will lose debates because she gets so angry in the face of disagreement.
So, they have a lot of similarities and a lot of differences, and it’s been really fascinating to dive deep into both of them.
Lex Fridman
I just re-listened to Ayn Rand’s, I think, last lecture, or at least it’s called that, and just the confrontational nature of how she answers questions or how she addresses critics and so on. There is a kind of charisma to that. So, I think both of them are very effective at winning over a popular support, but in very different styles. It seems like Ayn Rand is very cranky, but I mean, is the most charismatic, cranky person I think I’ve ever listened to.
I just re-listened to Ayn Rand’s, I think, last lecture, or at least it’s called that, and just the confrontational nature of how she answers questions or how she addresses critics and so on. There is a kind of charisma to that. So, I think both of them are very effective at winning over a popular support, but in very different styles. It seems like Ayn Rand is very cranky, but I mean, is the most charismatic, cranky person I think I’ve ever listened to.
Jennifer Burns
I mean, people talked about her, meeting her, and coming to believe in her ideas in a similar way as they did with Marxism, and that suddenly everything made sense, and that when they came to believe in objectivism, they felt they had this engine for understanding the entire world. Now after a while for most people, that then became confining, but that certainty. Friedman had some of that as well. He clothed it differently. He clothed it in happiness where Rand closed it, as you said, in crankiness or anger. I mean, there’s also an arc to Rand.
I mean, people talked about her, meeting her, and coming to believe in her ideas in a similar way as they did with Marxism, and that suddenly everything made sense, and that when they came to believe in objectivism, they felt they had this engine for understanding the entire world. Now after a while for most people, that then became confining, but that certainty. Friedman had some of that as well. He clothed it differently. He clothed it in happiness where Rand closed it, as you said, in crankiness or anger. I mean, there’s also an arc to Rand.
She gets angrier and angrier and crankier and crankier over the course of her life. What I enjoyed about my research is I was able to get into this early moment when she was different and a little more open, and then I watched her close and her harden over time.
Lex Fridman
Would it be fair to say that Milton Friedman had a bit more intellectual humility where he would be able to evolve over time, and be convinced by the reality of the world to change the nuances of policies, the nuances of how he thought about economics or about the world?
Would it be fair to say that Milton Friedman had a bit more intellectual humility where he would be able to evolve over time, and be convinced by the reality of the world to change the nuances of policies, the nuances of how he thought about economics or about the world?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, absolutely. Friedman believed in being able to say, “I was wrong.”
Yeah, absolutely. Friedman believed in being able to say, “I was wrong.”
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Jennifer Burns
There are some things he said he was wrong about. We’ll delve more into monetarism and monetary policy, but he was able to talk about the ways his ideas hadn’t mapped onto the world the way he thought they would. He does a really interesting interview at the end of his life where he’s beginning to voice some doubts about globalization, which was he was sort of a prophet of globalization, a cheerleader of globalization. He really thought it would lead to a better world in all respects. Towards the end of his life, it’s about two years before he dies, there’s a note of doubt about how globalization unfolded, and what it would mean particularly for the American worker.
There are some things he said he was wrong about. We’ll delve more into monetarism and monetary policy, but he was able to talk about the ways his ideas hadn’t mapped onto the world the way he thought they would. He does a really interesting interview at the end of his life where he’s beginning to voice some doubts about globalization, which was he was sort of a prophet of globalization, a cheerleader of globalization. He really thought it would lead to a better world in all respects. Towards the end of his life, it’s about two years before he dies, there’s a note of doubt about how globalization unfolded, and what it would mean particularly for the American worker.
So, you can see him still thinking, and that to me, I had assumed he became crankier and crankier and more and more set in his ways. Of course, there’s a phase where he does become that way, especially as he’s in the public eye, and there’s not room for nuance. But to find in the last years of his life him being so reflective, that was absolutely not something Rand could do.
Lex Fridman
I think there’s a thread throughout this conversation where we should actually also say that you’re a historian of ideas. How’s that?
I think there’s a thread throughout this conversation where we should actually also say that you’re a historian of ideas. How’s that?
Jennifer Burns
I am a historian of ideas, yes.
I am a historian of ideas, yes.
Lex Fridman
So, we’re talking about today in part about two people who fought for ideas, for an idea, like we’ve mentioned freedom for capitalism. They did it in very different ways. It’s so interesting to see the impact they both had and how their elucidation explanation of those ideas reverberated throughout society, and how we together as a society figure out what works, the degree to which they have influence on the public, the degree to which they have influence on individual administrations like the Reagan administration, Nixon and so on, and how it might return, fade away, and then come back in the modern times.
So, we’re talking about today in part about two people who fought for ideas, for an idea, like we’ve mentioned freedom for capitalism. They did it in very different ways. It’s so interesting to see the impact they both had and how their elucidation explanation of those ideas reverberated throughout society, and how we together as a society figure out what works, the degree to which they have influence on the public, the degree to which they have influence on individual administrations like the Reagan administration, Nixon and so on, and how it might return, fade away, and then come back in the modern times.
It’s so interesting if you just see this whole world as a game of ideas where we were pushing and pulling and trying to figure stuff out. A bunch of people got real excited over 100 years ago about communism, and then they try stuff out, and then the implementation broke down, and we keep playing with ideas. So, these are the two greats of playing with ideas. I think that’s a thread that just runs through this.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, and of pushing back against that movement towards communism, social democracy. But one difference that I really should emphasize, Rand is a writer of fiction. She’s a philosopher, but she’s also a writer of fiction. So, she is working almost in the mythic register, much more in the psychological register. She’s creating characters that people identify with and people relate to experiences they’ve had, and that’s one of the reasons she hits so deep. She’s also offering people… I read all the fan letters to her. People would say things like, “I read The Fountainhead, and now I’m getting a divorce,” having just these incredible realizations.
Yeah, and of pushing back against that movement towards communism, social democracy. But one difference that I really should emphasize, Rand is a writer of fiction. She’s a philosopher, but she’s also a writer of fiction. So, she is working almost in the mythic register, much more in the psychological register. She’s creating characters that people identify with and people relate to experiences they’ve had, and that’s one of the reasons she hits so deep. She’s also offering people… I read all the fan letters to her. People would say things like, “I read The Fountainhead, and now I’m getting a divorce,” having just these incredible realizations.
Lex Fridman
Milton Friedman didn’t get such letters.
Milton Friedman didn’t get such letters.
Jennifer Burns
Milton Friedman didn’t get such things, or I’ll meet someone, and they’ll say to me, “Ayn Rand is the reason I went to medical school.” A woman said this to me a few years back, “It never even occurred to me that I could be a doctor until I read Ayn Rand, and I said, “I’m going to go to medical school.” So, she has that really intense impact on people. So, she thought of herself as rational. She thought of rationality as what she was doing, but she was actually doing a kind of mythopoetic psychological work as well.
Milton Friedman didn’t get such things, or I’ll meet someone, and they’ll say to me, “Ayn Rand is the reason I went to medical school.” A woman said this to me a few years back, “It never even occurred to me that I could be a doctor until I read Ayn Rand, and I said, “I’m going to go to medical school.” So, she has that really intense impact on people. So, she thought of herself as rational. She thought of rationality as what she was doing, but she was actually doing a kind of mythopoetic psychological work as well.
Whereas Friedman, on the one hand, was much more rational, and there’s a whole set of economic thinking. He provides a rational framework for understanding the world, and it’s the framework of neoclassical economics. At the same time, he does pull on mythologies of the idea of America and the Gilded Age, the frontier mythology, the individual immigrant, the settler mythology. He pulls on these, but he doesn’t create them, and he’s more kind of playing a tune he already has. Whereas I think Rand really does something a little bit deeper in her ability to reach into people’s psyche, and then take that emotional psychological experience, and fuse it to an intellectual world and a political world.
That’s really what makes her so powerful. So, I think she comes back in to relevancy in a different way than Friedman does, because I think in some ways she’s tapped into a more universal human longing for independence and autonomy and self-creation and self-discovery.
Lex Fridman
Nevertheless, there’s still pragmatic ideas that are still important today from Milton Friedman, even just on the economics level. So, let’s dig in. Let me try. I took some notes. Let me try to summarize who Milton Friedman is, and then you can correct me. So, he is widely considered to be one of the greatest and most influential economists in history, not just the 20th century, I think, ever. He was an advocate of economic freedom, like we said, and just individual freedom in general. He strongly advocated for free market capitalism and limited government intervention in the economy, though you do give…
Nevertheless, there’s still pragmatic ideas that are still important today from Milton Friedman, even just on the economics level. So, let’s dig in. Let me try. I took some notes. Let me try to summarize who Milton Friedman is, and then you can correct me. So, he is widely considered to be one of the greatest and most influential economists in history, not just the 20th century, I think, ever. He was an advocate of economic freedom, like we said, and just individual freedom in general. He strongly advocated for free market capitalism and limited government intervention in the economy, though you do give…
I’ve listened to basically everything you have on the internet. You give some more depth and nuance on his views on this in your books. He led the famed Chicago School of Economics, and he won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976. He greatly influenced economic policies during the Reagan administration and other administrations. He was an influential public intellectual, highly influential, not just among economists. He lived 1912 to 2006. So, that means he lived and worked through some major world events where his ideas were really important, the Great Depression with the New Deal, World War Two with post-war reconstruction, the Rise and Fall of the Bretton Woods Monetary System as we may talk about, the Cold War and all the conflicts involved in that, the tensions around communism and so on, so the fall of the Soviet Union.
Also, he has some interesting relationships to China’s economic transformation since the 1970s, the stagflation of the 1970s, and I’m sure there’s a lot more. So, can you maybe continue this thread, and give a big picture overview of the ideas he’s known for?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, sure. That’s a great summary. You learn fast. So, let me start with the economics, and then I can transition to how he used those economic ideas to become a real voice in the American conservative movement, in the American political realm. So, I’ll highlight for ideas or contributions or episodes. One was his work with Anna Schwartz in revising our understanding of the Great Depression. That’s tightly related to the second, which is the School of Monetarism that he and Schwartz really become founders of.
Yeah, sure. That’s a great summary. You learn fast. So, let me start with the economics, and then I can transition to how he used those economic ideas to become a real voice in the American conservative movement, in the American political realm. So, I’ll highlight for ideas or contributions or episodes. One was his work with Anna Schwartz in revising our understanding of the Great Depression. That’s tightly related to the second, which is the School of Monetarism that he and Schwartz really become founders of.
Then there is the prediction of stagflation and the explanation of that in the 1970s, which really is one of these career-making predictions, and we can dig into that. Then in terms of technical economics, he’s known for the permanent income hypothesis, which he develops with a group of female collaborators that I can talk about. So, those are four technical pieces end up being really brought together in what becomes the Chicago School of Economics. He’s undoubtedly the head and the leader of the Chicago School of Economics. There’s an earlier generation that he learns from. There’s his generation.
The Great Depression
There’s also a Chicago School of Law and Economics that’s really profoundly influential, and then there’ll be a third generation that he’s somewhat distinct from, but that goes on to really shape economics. But let me go back to these four pieces, and let me start with Great Depression. So, Milton Friedman actually lives through the Great Depression. He’s in college when it hits. So, he is in college just 1928 to 1932. He’s aware of the Depression, and he’s deciding, “Should I study mathematics, or should I study economics?” He’s had some good economics teachers, but it’s really the context.
It’s looking around at the slow dissolving of economic prosperity. So, he decides to go to Chicago. He decides to study economics. What’s really interesting is that the Great Depression is so unexpected. It’s unpredicted. It’s unprecedented, and economists are really struggling to know how to respond to it. So, he’s going to arrive at the University of Chicago when the field is struggling to know what to do. So, he’s in this really open space where the institutional economics of the 1920s has failed to predict, which was focused on business cycles.
This is the irony. Their big thing was charting and understanding business cycles, and then we have the biggest business cycle of all time. They haven’t seen it coming, and they don’t have a good explanation for it. What he will get at Chicago is the remnants of a monetary understanding of the economy. So his teachers, they don’t know exactly what’s going on, but they look first to the banking crisis. They look first to 1933. It’s bank runs failures of maybe it’s up to a third of American banks. Thousands of banks are failing per week. So, they’re focused on that. So, that’s the first imprint he will have.
The Great Depression has something to do with a banking system. The second imprint he will have is that all of his professors are profoundly concerned about the social crisis. They want relief programs. They want them now. They want bank regulation and financial reform. They’re very active. This is not laissez-faire by any stretch of the imagination. So, Friedman has that imprinting. So, he gets there in ’32, ’36, ’37. The ideas of John Maynard Keynes from Britain, which has a different explanation, Keynes has a different explanation of the Great Depression, will make landfall in American economics, and be very profoundly influential. Most American economists, but Friedman already…
It’s too late for Friedman. He already has a different perspective. So, Keynesianism unfolds. I can say more about that, but it basically leads to more active federal government participation in the economy. What underlies a lot of that, its adaptation in America particularly, is the idea that capitalism has failed. Capitalism has revealed itself to have a profound flaw, and that its cycles of boom and bust creates social instability, chaos. It needs to be tamed. It needs to be regulated. So, that becomes the baseline of politics in the United States, the understanding of the New Deal, the understanding of the Democratic Party, even to some extent the understanding of the Republican Party.
Friedman never quite sure about that. He has a hunch that there’s something else going on, and he does not buy that capitalism has ground to a halt, or the other idea is that capitalism has gone through some phase transition. It worked great maybe while we had a frontier. This is a very serious argument that people were making. United States used to have a frontier, a place where Europeans hadn’t fully settled. Of course, they’re pushing out the native tribes. That’s another story, but that this frontier is the engine of economic growth, and the frontier is now over. It’s closed, and we’re going to stagnate. There’s a theory of secular stagnation.
So, to deal with secular stagnation, we’re just going to have to have a more active state. So, Friedman is suspicious of all these assumptions, and he has this idea that it’s something to do with money. Money is somehow important, and so he joins together with Anna Schwartz, who is an economist. She doesn’t at this time hold a PhD. She’s working for the National Bureau of Economic Research. They come together to do this study of money in the U.S. economy. It takes them 12 years to write the book. They’re releasing their ideas, and they’re arguing, and Friedman is writing papers, giving talks, saying, “Money’s really important,” and nobody’s really believing him.
He’s a crank. He’s at Chicago. Chicago is a well-known university, but he’s considered a crank. Then in ’63, he and Anna Schwartz published this book, and it’s 800 pages. It’s a reinterpretation of the history of the United States through money, like the central character is money, whether it’s specie, greenback or the U.S. currency. They have a whole chapter on the Great Depression, and what they’ve literally done, Schwartz has done most of this, they’ve gone… Schwartz has gone to banks, and said, “Show me your books.” Then she’s added up column by column, “How much money is in your vault? How much money is on deposit? How much money is circulating?”
So, they literally have graphs. You can see them in the book of how much money has been circulating in the U.S. at various different points in time. When they get to the Great Depression, they find the quantity of money available in the economy goes down by a third. In some ways, this is completely obvious because so many banks have failed, and we don’t have any type of bank insurance at that point. So if your bank goes under, your savings are there, the money essentially vanishes, and it’s fractional reserve banking. So, you’ve put in… They can loan up to 90% on their deposits.
So, Friedman and Schwartz present this argument that what really made the Great Depression so bad was this drop in the amount of money, the 30% drop in the money, they called the Great Contraction. Then they go further, and they say, “Well, how did this happen and why?” They pinpoint the Federal Reserve, which is a fairly new institution at that time. They say, “What did the Federal Reserve do? The lender of last resort, what did it do in the face of what they’re depicting as a massive, unprecedented liquidity crisis?” They find it’s not really doing much.
They really dig into the details, and they find that the Federal Reserve has gone through a sort of personnel change. Some of the key leaders in the 1920s, Benjamin Strong is one of them. He’s now deceased, and the dominance of the New York Federal Reserve, which in their telling is global, it’s interconnected. It’s seen a lot of financial things come and go. They believe that the New York Fed had the understanding to recognize this is a liquidity crisis. We should be very generous. We should support all the banks. Their influence has diminished for the kind of banks that are more… They don’t say the Rubes and the Hicks, but it basically is.
It’s like, “The people in charge don’t know what they’re doing.” So, the Fed pursues this policy of masterly inactivity. They don’t see it as a problem. They don’t do much. There’s an enormous liquidity crisis, and that’s their version of what the Great Depression is all about, that it’s a financial system meltdown. It’s a liquidity crisis, and that it in some ways, well, in many ways, they argue very strong counterfactual argument. The Federal Reserve could have prevented it, and it did not. So, it becomes then an institutional failure and a political failure, not a failure of capitalism as a system. So, this book comes out. It’s a blockbuster.
Even those economists who’ve been like, “Friedman is a crank. I don’t buy it,” are like, “Friedman and Schwartz are onto something. Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz are onto something.” So, that really changes the game. This is also one of his most influential contributions, because Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they’re the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
So, the specifics of what they say to do have obviously evolved as the system has changed, but this is a playbook for how to deal with economic crisis. It’s Friedman and Schwartz. So, it’s absolutely fundamental, and that is really going to be the place he makes his mark.
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of things to say here. So first, the book we’re talking about is a monetary history of the United States, in part for which Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize. You’ve also mentioned the influence of the Great Depression, if you could even just rewind to that.
There’s a lot of things to say here. So first, the book we’re talking about is a monetary history of the United States, in part for which Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize. You’ve also mentioned the influence of the Great Depression, if you could even just rewind to that.
Jennifer Burns
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So, he went to, I guess, college in Rutgers.
So, he went to, I guess, college in Rutgers.
Jennifer Burns
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
He was mathematical proclivities, so he was wanted to be a mathematician. So, it’s a cool crossroads. It’s interesting how the right time, the right person arrives. So, you described this really well, that he had this choice to be a mathematician or an economist. The economist is the University of Chicago. Mathematician is Brown University, whichever, and then this is also the beginnings, as you’ve described, of mathematical economics. So, he fits in nicely into this using… I think you said the number of equations started going up per paper-
He was mathematical proclivities, so he was wanted to be a mathematician. So, it’s a cool crossroads. It’s interesting how the right time, the right person arrives. So, you described this really well, that he had this choice to be a mathematician or an economist. The economist is the University of Chicago. Mathematician is Brown University, whichever, and then this is also the beginnings, as you’ve described, of mathematical economics. So, he fits in nicely into this using… I think you said the number of equations started going up per paper-
Jennifer Burns
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… which is a really nice way to put it, so really the right person at the right time to try to solve this puzzle of the economy melting down. It’s so interesting, just one human. It’s just from just zooming in on a single human making a decision about life. It’s hard to know when you’re in it that the world is melting down from an economics perspective, and that I could do something about this to figure out what it is. Also, I’m going to reject the mainstream narrative about why this happened.
… which is a really nice way to put it, so really the right person at the right time to try to solve this puzzle of the economy melting down. It’s so interesting, just one human. It’s just from just zooming in on a single human making a decision about life. It’s hard to know when you’re in it that the world is melting down from an economics perspective, and that I could do something about this to figure out what it is. Also, I’m going to reject the mainstream narrative about why this happened.
Jennifer Burns
So, the other piece of the puzzle, when he goes to Rutgers, he thinks he’ll be an actuary. So, Milton Friedman’s family, his parents are immigrants, Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe. They’re pretty atypical and that they don’t stay in New York, and they moved to Rahway, New Jersey. They put together a fairly middle-class life as kind of… They have a shop. They do some wholesale buying and selling, and then his father dies when he’s 16. His life becomes more precarious, but it’s never as precarious as he makes it up be. He’s got three older sisters. They earn a good living.
So, the other piece of the puzzle, when he goes to Rutgers, he thinks he’ll be an actuary. So, Milton Friedman’s family, his parents are immigrants, Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe. They’re pretty atypical and that they don’t stay in New York, and they moved to Rahway, New Jersey. They put together a fairly middle-class life as kind of… They have a shop. They do some wholesale buying and selling, and then his father dies when he’s 16. His life becomes more precarious, but it’s never as precarious as he makes it up be. He’s got three older sisters. They earn a good living.
Incidentally, they all have better grades in high school than he does, but he’s the one that goes to college. But it’s actually really important that he loses his father figure, because he’s then looking for other father figures, and he meets two at Rutgers. One is Arthur Burns, who will go on to have a huge influence in his career. No relation to me, by the way. But, Arthur Burns is like him, a fellow Jewish immigrant boy on the make. He’s older, and he’s making a career as an economist. Then there’s Homer Jones who has gone to the University of Chicago, and is studying with Frank Knight at Chicago, and says, “You have to go to Chicago.”
So, he has these two mentors. Burns in particular suggests, ” Oh, I could be an economist. That could be my career path.” The idea to be an actuary for an insurance company, I’m not sure where he got that idea, but he just thought that was something he could do as someone who was good at math. So, the college really opens the perspective, opens the door. Then I think it’s really key that, again, he doesn’t get an explanation that he buys for the Great Depression. So then he’s looking for one. The math part is really interesting aspect of his career. Now, he actually comes to Chicago to study with the mathematical economist, Henry Schultz, but he gets there, and he thinks Schultz is kind of dumb. He really does. He’s incredibly arrogant, and he just thinks, “This guy’s not that smart,” and it seems that… I mean, Schultz did some really important work in the early stages of mathematical economics, but a lot of the oral histories about him are like, “Yeah, he wasn’t that bright.” So, Friedman’s may be onto something. So, he falls into the set of students who are really enthralled with this other professor, Frank Knight. Frank Knight is against math and economics. Frank Knight is a neoclassical economist, but not a mathematical economist.
He’s an old school liberal. He’s really concerned about liberal democracy, economic liberalism. Friedman is very deeply influenced by Knight. He continues to pursue mathematical economics, so he’ll go… For part of his graduate career, he goes to Columbia University where he actually gets his PhD from. He works with a mathematical economist there. So, he comes out trained in what will eventually be econometrics, statistics and economics. His early publications are in statistics, but it’s not really where his intellectual heart and soul are. Eventually, he will turn very profoundly against mathematics and economics, and become a heterodox strain throughout 20th century economics.
It says, ” Simple models are better. We need to work off empirical data, not construct elegant models,” and becomes really counter-cultural within economics in that way.
Lex Fridman
The test of a good model is it should actually predict stuff that happened.
The test of a good model is it should actually predict stuff that happened.
Jennifer Burns
It should predict stuff that happened. It should tie back to what’s going on.
It should predict stuff that happened. It should tie back to what’s going on.
Lex Fridman
I’m wondering which direction to go. So first, actually, if we could zoom out on the different schools of economics.
I’m wondering which direction to go. So first, actually, if we could zoom out on the different schools of economics.
Schools of economic thought
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Just the basics. You mentioned Neoclassical. We mentioned Keynesian economics. We mentioned… What else did we mention? Well, the Chicago School of Economics.
Just the basics. You mentioned Neoclassical. We mentioned Keynesian economics. We mentioned… What else did we mention? Well, the Chicago School of Economics.
Jennifer Burns
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Where does Austrian economics fit into that pile, and Marxian economics? Can we just even just linger and try to redefine Keynesian economics and Chicago School of Economics and Neoclassical economics and Austrian economics, because there’s some overlap and contention?
Where does Austrian economics fit into that pile, and Marxian economics? Can we just even just linger and try to redefine Keynesian economics and Chicago School of Economics and Neoclassical economics and Austrian economics, because there’s some overlap and contention?
Jennifer Burns
For sure. So, schools of economics, so we could start with classical economics. Classical economics, we could think of Adam Smith is your classic classical economist, the founder of the discipline. Classical economics does not really use math, is very close to political economy. It’s concerned with, as Smith puts it, the wealth of nations. It’s concerned to some degree with distribution. It’s concerned to some degree with what makes a good political system. What tends to really define classical economics when you’re looking from a great distance is what’s called the labor theory of value.
For sure. So, schools of economics, so we could start with classical economics. Classical economics, we could think of Adam Smith is your classic classical economist, the founder of the discipline. Classical economics does not really use math, is very close to political economy. It’s concerned with, as Smith puts it, the wealth of nations. It’s concerned to some degree with distribution. It’s concerned to some degree with what makes a good political system. What tends to really define classical economics when you’re looking from a great distance is what’s called the labor theory of value.
So, where does value come from in classical economics? It comes from the labor that a person puts into it. So, maybe this in some ways comes from Locke’s notion of property that you mingle your labor with the natural world. We can say labor theory of value. So, classical economics concerned with… Smith is arguing against mercantilism for more free trade, often goes by the name of political economy to show it’s more capacious. It’s thinking of politics and economics. You can still read these books today. The sentences are long. The words are different, but you can still follow along.
So, the real big transition from classical economics and political economy to economics as it’s understood today, comes with the marginal revolution. The marginal revolution is a scientific revolution that happens in a couple of different places simultaneously. This is one of these things that you see in the history of science. There’ll be some breakthrough like, “Darwin has a breakthrough,” but somebody else has sort of the same breakthrough at the same time, totally differently. So, there’s a version of marginalism that’s continental. There’s a version in the German-speaking lands, in the French-speaking lands and in Britain. They all come together, and the shift is in the theory of value. So, the theory of value in marginalism is on the margin.
So, say you have one apple, and you want a second one. How much is going from one apple to two apple worth for you? Probably quite a bit. If you had 10 apples, maybe going to 11 apples doesn’t matter that much. The marginal value is less. So, what marginalism does though, most importantly, is it opens the door to math and economics, because it means you can graph this now. You can depict this relationship graphically. There’s some really interesting work in the history of economics that shows a lot of the people who developed marginalism were looking to physics as a model, Physics, the queen of the sciences.
So, they were thinking… They imported terms from the natural world to describe the social world through the lens of economics terms like equilibrium. So, the idea being that if you looked at a market, a market would reach equilibrium when everybody has bought and sold all that they want, or the price will settle at an equilibrium price when it’s really the demand and supply are matching up.
Lex Fridman
Some of these ideas are things we would pick up at a microeconomics class.
Some of these ideas are things we would pick up at a microeconomics class.
Jennifer Burns
Oh yes, this is still out there. This is the basic foundation of microeconomics, marginal analysis, and so-
Oh yes, this is still out there. This is the basic foundation of microeconomics, marginal analysis, and so-
Jennifer Burns
… of microeconomics, marginal analysis. And so, in the German-speaking intellectual tradition, this is the root of Austrian economics and people picking up the marginal revolution in the German-speaking lands are opposed to the historicists who are thinking in a more evolutionary way about how societies grow and change and they have a vision of economic ideas as applying differently to different types of social arrangements. Where the marginalists, remember, inspired by physics and this is a set of natural laws that applies anywhere to any human society. So, that’s his first really big fissure that we’ll see again and again. Are you historically minded? Do certain traits of economic life in here adhere and become expressed in certain types of societies or are there universal economic laws that flow through any type of society?
… of microeconomics, marginal analysis. And so, in the German-speaking intellectual tradition, this is the root of Austrian economics and people picking up the marginal revolution in the German-speaking lands are opposed to the historicists who are thinking in a more evolutionary way about how societies grow and change and they have a vision of economic ideas as applying differently to different types of social arrangements. Where the marginalists, remember, inspired by physics and this is a set of natural laws that applies anywhere to any human society. So, that’s his first really big fissure that we’ll see again and again. Are you historically minded? Do certain traits of economic life in here adhere and become expressed in certain types of societies or are there universal economic laws that flow through any type of society?
So, that’s a juncture, a break and so marginalism … First, people start using, really, geometry to graph things but marginalism is also opening up to the possibility of calculus and the possibility of creating models. But at that point in time, late 19th century, a model is something like a physicist does. Think of an inclined plane and how fast does the ball roll from one to the other, it’s a physical representation of the world and eventually economists will start to create mathematical representations of the world but we’re not quite there yet. So, we’re late 19th century and we have this fissure, we have this introduction of marginal analysis that marks the juncture from classical economics to economics. So, let’s say now we have economics but we still have this fissure between historical thinking and let’s call it natural law thinking, that’s not quite right, but physical laws versus contingency. And then, in the United States, this ends up mapping onto debates about capitalism and so more historically minded economists tend to be interested in the progressive movement which is invested in taming and regulating industrial capitalism and changing its excesses, factory safety laws, wage laws, working conditions laws. Yet, in general, American economists all use marginal analysis just in different ways. The ones who are more drawn to marginal analysis become known as neoclassical economists. They’re neoclassical, the neo is because they’re using marginal analysis, the classical is because they don’t think we need to change the way the economy operates or the government operates, they’re not progressive. Whereas the progressives are saying things like we need to use social control. The state and the people, collectively and democratically, need to control the way economics unfolds and make sure things are fair and equal.
So, that school of thought becomes known as institutional economics in the United States by the 20th century. So, it’s part of the progressive movement late 19th century, into the 20th century, it really becomes institutional economics and it’s quite dominant and the neoclassical economists are still there but they’re very much a minority. And Frank Knight, Milton Friedman’s teacher, is one of the minority neoclassical economists and the institutionalists are much more progressive still.
Lex Fridman
Is it fair to say that the neoclassical folks and even the classical folks versus the institutional economics folks, they have a disagreement about how much government intervention that should be in the economy? So, neoclassical is less intervention and then an institutional economists, the progressive folks is more intervention?
Is it fair to say that the neoclassical folks and even the classical folks versus the institutional economics folks, they have a disagreement about how much government intervention that should be in the economy? So, neoclassical is less intervention and then an institutional economists, the progressive folks is more intervention?
Jennifer Burns
Yes, yes, exactly right. So, this is a situation in the 1920s but the other piece I should mention is that first generation of progressive economists were very radical, they were closely allied with the socialist movement, with labor radicalism and many of them lost their jobs at universities. This connects to the dawn of academic freedom, this is before academic freedom and they were chastened, they became much more mainstream. By the time we get to the 1920s, we don’t really have radical critiques of society coming from economists, much smaller profession, much less important than it is today and fairly peaceful because the 1920s are a fairly peaceful decade in the United States.
Yes, yes, exactly right. So, this is a situation in the 1920s but the other piece I should mention is that first generation of progressive economists were very radical, they were closely allied with the socialist movement, with labor radicalism and many of them lost their jobs at universities. This connects to the dawn of academic freedom, this is before academic freedom and they were chastened, they became much more mainstream. By the time we get to the 1920s, we don’t really have radical critiques of society coming from economists, much smaller profession, much less important than it is today and fairly peaceful because the 1920s are a fairly peaceful decade in the United States.
So, this is a situation when the Great Depression hits and, as I mentioned before, the most important institutional economist is Wesley Mitchell and he has said … He’s written a whole book on business cycles. He doesn’t see this business cycle coming and it hits and he doesn’t have a good explanation for it. Now, perhaps the preeminent neoclassical economist was Irving Fisher. Now, Irving Fisher is big into the stock market and Irving Fisher says sometime in late summer 1929 stocks are going ever higher and will continue to go ever higher forever. And so, he loses his reputation after the stock market crash. So, Milton Friedman is stepping into a field in which the greats have been discredited and there’s an enormous economic crisis all around.
Lex Fridman
And everybody’s struggling to figure out why the crisis happened, right?
And everybody’s struggling to figure out why the crisis happened, right?
Jennifer Burns
Yes. And the other thing he’s stepping into is a world where, in the United States, there’s a great deal of anger at capitalism, at the system, unemployed people on the street in Europe, there’s rising fascist movements, in Asia there’s rising fascist movements. And so, everyone’s very concerned about this and Friedman is seeing a lot of this through the lens of Frank Knight who feels like we are maybe reaching the end of what he calls liberalism, he calls himself an old-fashioned liberalism. We’re reaching the end of representative Democratic government because representative Democratic government cannot solve these social problems. And capitalism as it has developed, Knight is very pro-capitalist but he says it’s generating inequality and this is putting too many strains on the system.
Yes. And the other thing he’s stepping into is a world where, in the United States, there’s a great deal of anger at capitalism, at the system, unemployed people on the street in Europe, there’s rising fascist movements, in Asia there’s rising fascist movements. And so, everyone’s very concerned about this and Friedman is seeing a lot of this through the lens of Frank Knight who feels like we are maybe reaching the end of what he calls liberalism, he calls himself an old-fashioned liberalism. We’re reaching the end of representative Democratic government because representative Democratic government cannot solve these social problems. And capitalism as it has developed, Knight is very pro-capitalist but he says it’s generating inequality and this is putting too many strains on the system.
So, Knight will become one of the people who helps Friedman think how do I develop a new theory of capitalism that works in an era of mass democracy where people can vote and people can express at the ballot box their unhappiness with what’s happening economically. So, this larger movement will generate, of which F.A. Hayek is a part, Friedman is a part that becomes the very early stirrings of trying to think about a new liberalism which will eventually be called neoliberalism.
Keynesian economics
Lex Fridman
Okay. So, if we can just linger on the definitions of things. So, we mentioned what neoclassical is and the institutional economics is, what’s Keynesian economics? And the Chicago School of Economics, I guess, is a branch of neoclassical that’s a little bit more empirical versus maybe model-based and Keynesian is very model heavy, more intervention of government. So, the real battle is Keynesian versus everybody else.
Okay. So, if we can just linger on the definitions of things. So, we mentioned what neoclassical is and the institutional economics is, what’s Keynesian economics? And the Chicago School of Economics, I guess, is a branch of neoclassical that’s a little bit more empirical versus maybe model-based and Keynesian is very model heavy, more intervention of government. So, the real battle is Keynesian versus everybody else.
Jennifer Burns
That is what eventually comes to pass in the United States and in the overall developed profession of economics. The other piece of the puzzle here is the introduction of mathematics and it’s been around the edges but it will pick up speed. In the 1930s, the Econometrics Society is founded, they start publishing, people start using more statistical and mathematical tools to think about economics and they’re given a boost inadvertently by the rise of Keynesian economics. So, Keynes is trained in the neoclassical tradition, he’s an absolutely fascinating figure, he’s been there in the peace negotiations at Versailles, he basically calls World War II. He’s like, “Hey, we’re going to have another war here caused by Germany because this peace treaty has been done in such a vindictive way and people have made such bad decisions.” He’s there, he sees it happening.
That is what eventually comes to pass in the United States and in the overall developed profession of economics. The other piece of the puzzle here is the introduction of mathematics and it’s been around the edges but it will pick up speed. In the 1930s, the Econometrics Society is founded, they start publishing, people start using more statistical and mathematical tools to think about economics and they’re given a boost inadvertently by the rise of Keynesian economics. So, Keynes is trained in the neoclassical tradition, he’s an absolutely fascinating figure, he’s been there in the peace negotiations at Versailles, he basically calls World War II. He’s like, “Hey, we’re going to have another war here caused by Germany because this peace treaty has been done in such a vindictive way and people have made such bad decisions.” He’s there, he sees it happening.
And so, when the Great Depression unfolds, he basically comes up with a new theory for explaining what’s going on and the previous neoclassical understanding as things go up and things go down and, when they go down, there’s a natural mechanism to bring them back up. So, when the economy’s going down, prices are going down, wages are going down, everybody’s losing money but eventually firms are going to realize, hey, I can hire people cheap, hey, I can buy stuff cheap, I don’t have a lot of competition maybe I should get in the game here and then others will start to get in and then you regenerate prosperity in that way. And so, Keynes says, “Sure, that’s one theory but something different is happening right now. Part of why it’s happening is because we have … The working class is more empowered now, they’re not simply going to just take low wages and ride them down to the floor, we might not hit the floor.”
But also he says people might become too anxious to spend, they might not want to invest. And Keynes has these discussions of animal spirits, he’s still enough of a political economist to think, not just in terms of human rationality, but what are some other things going on in human beings. And people might decide to sit on their money, they might not invest it and so what happens then is you could get stuck in a bad equilibrium. So, in the neoclassical model of equilibrium, it restarts and resets itself and he says, “No, we could get stuck here, we get stuck in the Depression. And in that case, what has to happen?” He says, “The government stimulates investment and the government itself invests.” And then he argues that, this is a student of his, Richard Kahn says, “As the government invests a dollar, it has a multiplier effect. The dollar spent by the government ramifies out throughout the economy.”
So, it takes the government and puts it in the center as opposed to, say, the banking system or the financial system which would be the more Friedman analysis. And for many economists of Friedman’s generation, and he’s a weird generation because, the generation that becomes dominant, it’s just four years older, the men who become Keynesian economics but that four years is really important because they come in to grad school in economics and they get exposed to the new ideas of John Maynard Keynes and they … I think it’s Paul Samuelson calls it, it was like a South Sea virus that attacked, all of the younger economists immediately succumbed and no one under 50 ever got the disease because their thinking is already set. And so, Keynesianism, Keynes himself is very suspicious of math and economics and he and Friedman is fascinating.
One of the first books by Jan Tinbergen, a Dutch economist, to use math and economics use huge volumes. Volume one, Keynes pans it. Volume two, Friedman pans it. So, they’re in the same page but what happens is, as Keynesianism arrives in the United States, Franklin Roosevelt is not really a Keynesian, he’s an accidental or experimental Keynesian and there’s a bunch of different ideas in the United States that are very similar to Keynesianism. They’re not theorized but there are similar ideas that the government has to do something. So, this all comes together and American economists realize that you can construct models in the Keynesian perspective and, if you can use numbers in these models, you can go to Washington, D.C. with numbers and you seem like you have a lot more authority and so math becomes really twinned into Keynesian economics.
Lex Fridman
So, the numbers are used as a symbol of expertise. We really know what the hell is going on because we have some numbers, right?
So, the numbers are used as a symbol of expertise. We really know what the hell is going on because we have some numbers, right?
Jennifer Burns
Right. And we can create a model and so we can say, okay, in the model, the interest rate is here and taxes are here so let’s play with government spending. Let’s make it up, let’s make it down and then we can get an estimation it’ll spit out, here’s predicted GDP. So, the other piece of the Keynesian revolution is it really gets people thinking holistically about the economy as one conceptual unit and you then have what Paul Samuelson will end up calling the neoclassical synthesis and this is still in economics today. If you take micro, you’re going to get supply and demand, scarcity, marginal analysis. If you take macro, you’re going to get a very different approach and that’s more Keynesian based. And so, the idea is that, and this makes sense, you can think of this from statistics, the way things act individually versus when they’re all added together, it can be very different.
Right. And we can create a model and so we can say, okay, in the model, the interest rate is here and taxes are here so let’s play with government spending. Let’s make it up, let’s make it down and then we can get an estimation it’ll spit out, here’s predicted GDP. So, the other piece of the Keynesian revolution is it really gets people thinking holistically about the economy as one conceptual unit and you then have what Paul Samuelson will end up calling the neoclassical synthesis and this is still in economics today. If you take micro, you’re going to get supply and demand, scarcity, marginal analysis. If you take macro, you’re going to get a very different approach and that’s more Keynesian based. And so, the idea is that, and this makes sense, you can think of this from statistics, the way things act individually versus when they’re all added together, it can be very different.
So, there’s this uneasy piece where economists are using neoclassical tools to analyze individual behavior and individual market behavior and they’re shifting to a different paradigm when they think about the economy as a whole. And in this paradigm of the economy as a whole, the federal budget, the taxing and spending power of the federal government become paramount and that is called the fiscal revolution and that’s really the essence of Keynesianism. But the key thing to remember is that Keynesianism and Keynes are different and there’s this famous episode where John Maynard Keynes comes to D.C. and he goes to dinner and he comes back and he says to one of his friends in London, he said, “Yeah, it was really interesting, I was the only non-Keynesian there.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, Keynesianism is more government intervention, fiscal policy, so put the government at the center of influencing the economy. And then the different flavors of whether it’s Austrian Economics or Chicago School of Economics is saying, no, we have to put less government intervention and trust the market more. And the formulation of that for Milton Friedman is trust the money more, not trust but the money supply is the thing that should be focused on.
So, Keynesianism is more government intervention, fiscal policy, so put the government at the center of influencing the economy. And then the different flavors of whether it’s Austrian Economics or Chicago School of Economics is saying, no, we have to put less government intervention and trust the market more. And the formulation of that for Milton Friedman is trust the money more, not trust but the money supply is the thing that should be focused on.
Laissez-faire
Jennifer Burns
Yes. So, the Austrians and the Chicago School see economic prosperity and growth comes from individual initiative, individual entrepreneurship, private sources. The private market is what drives economic growth, not the public sector. And so, for Friedman then the question is what is the government’s role. And because he’s lived through the Great Depression, he’s not laissez-faire and he won’t ever be laissez-faire. Now, interestingly, Hayek, living through the Great Depression, at first is laissez-faire and he’s like, “Sure, let it rip.” And things get so bad that Hayek’s like, “Okay, that’s not going to work.”
Yes. So, the Austrians and the Chicago School see economic prosperity and growth comes from individual initiative, individual entrepreneurship, private sources. The private market is what drives economic growth, not the public sector. And so, for Friedman then the question is what is the government’s role. And because he’s lived through the Great Depression, he’s not laissez-faire and he won’t ever be laissez-faire. Now, interestingly, Hayek, living through the Great Depression, at first is laissez-faire and he’s like, “Sure, let it rip.” And things get so bad that Hayek’s like, “Okay, that’s not going to work.”
Lex Fridman
Can we actually define laissez-faire? So, what do we mean? What’s the free market? What’s laissez-faire? What’s the extreme version here?
Can we actually define laissez-faire? So, what do we mean? What’s the free market? What’s laissez-faire? What’s the extreme version here?
Jennifer Burns
So, yeah, laissez-faire means leave it be in France. It’s more often used as an insult than as an actual. Very few people are completely and totally laissez-faire, that would be the pure laissez-faire would be maybe pure anarchist position like the state does nothing or the state isn’t even there. But it tends to, if I could maybe make it more precise, it would be focused on freedom of contract would be essential and that means the buyer of labor and the seller of labor must have absolute freedom to contract. So, that means no minimum wage law, no working hours law, no employment law, things like that. This is all pre-progressive movement, a lot of things are that way. Imagine you’re in 19th century America and you have a farm and you hire someone to help you on the farm, you offer the money, they take it. If they fall off a ladder and break their back, maybe you help them out, maybe you don’t but there’s not a whole apparatus of legal liability and safety and things like that.
So, yeah, laissez-faire means leave it be in France. It’s more often used as an insult than as an actual. Very few people are completely and totally laissez-faire, that would be the pure laissez-faire would be maybe pure anarchist position like the state does nothing or the state isn’t even there. But it tends to, if I could maybe make it more precise, it would be focused on freedom of contract would be essential and that means the buyer of labor and the seller of labor must have absolute freedom to contract. So, that means no minimum wage law, no working hours law, no employment law, things like that. This is all pre-progressive movement, a lot of things are that way. Imagine you’re in 19th century America and you have a farm and you hire someone to help you on the farm, you offer the money, they take it. If they fall off a ladder and break their back, maybe you help them out, maybe you don’t but there’s not a whole apparatus of legal liability and safety and things like that.
So, that would be one piece. Another piece of laissez-faire would be free trade amongst nations, so no regulation of who can invest in a nation or who can take money out of a nation. So, Nippon Steel could come and invest in US Steel and there would be no grounds in which to reject that. Or you could, as a billionaire in the United States, relocate you and all your money to another country and the United States couldn’t try to keep you and nobody else could stop you from coming in. And then in the context of economic crisis, laissez-faire would not encompass centrally provided relief because, in the pure theory, again, very seldom applied purely but in the pure theory, the wages need to come down far enough and people need to be desperate enough to start taking work and to start the machine again. So, the theory would be, if you give people relief, they might not go back to work.
Now, almost nobody says that in the Great Depression because the situation is so bad and people are starving on the street and feel, for humanitarian and ethical reasons, it’s not okay to say that. The Austrians though at first, Hayek and Lionel Robbins are like, “This is a business cycle and it needs to run its course and it will be detrimental if we intervene,” and then pretty soon Hayek has to change his tune.
Lex Fridman
So, the Austrians are the most hard core in terms of laissez-faire, right?
So, the Austrians are the most hard core in terms of laissez-faire, right?
Jennifer Burns
Absolutely. And so, Hayek will make the turn towards accepting more of a state and then will come to talk about how the state needs to support what he calls a competitive order. But his mentor Ludwig von Mises still remains very hard core and is not really open to things like unemployment insurance or other state-based interventions.
Absolutely. And so, Hayek will make the turn towards accepting more of a state and then will come to talk about how the state needs to support what he calls a competitive order. But his mentor Ludwig von Mises still remains very hard core and is not really open to things like unemployment insurance or other state-based interventions.
Lex Fridman
What does von Mises say about human suffering that’s witnessed in the Great Depression, for example? What are we supposed to, as economists, as humans that define policy, what are we supposed to see when people are suffering at scale?
What does von Mises say about human suffering that’s witnessed in the Great Depression, for example? What are we supposed to, as economists, as humans that define policy, what are we supposed to see when people are suffering at scale?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I wish I knew an answer to that question, I don’t know enough about von Mises and his reaction in the Great Depression. I think I would hazard that he would look more to the down the road and say, “Well, if you start here, you’re going to go places that are bad,” but I don’t factually know what he said in response. I do know that Hayek’s position doesn’t last very long, it’s not a position you can hold to. Maybe you could hold to it in other cycles. The other thing that was interesting is I found very few Americans saying this, most who were were small town electeds or the most famous is Andrew Mellon quoted by Herbert Hoover. So, not directly, we don’t have him on record saying this but apparently Hoover records in his memoirs that Mellon said something like liquidate real estate, liquidate stocks, purge the rottenness out of the system, people will live a healthier life.
Yeah, I wish I knew an answer to that question, I don’t know enough about von Mises and his reaction in the Great Depression. I think I would hazard that he would look more to the down the road and say, “Well, if you start here, you’re going to go places that are bad,” but I don’t factually know what he said in response. I do know that Hayek’s position doesn’t last very long, it’s not a position you can hold to. Maybe you could hold to it in other cycles. The other thing that was interesting is I found very few Americans saying this, most who were were small town electeds or the most famous is Andrew Mellon quoted by Herbert Hoover. So, not directly, we don’t have him on record saying this but apparently Hoover records in his memoirs that Mellon said something like liquidate real estate, liquidate stocks, purge the rottenness out of the system, people will live a healthier life.
And certainly, there were members of the Federal Reserve who felt like it would create, they didn’t say moral hazard, but it would create what we now call moral hazard, bad habits. Were we to intervene and to save failing banks because failing banks need to be taught a lesson, whey need to be taught discipline? And so, a lot of people, I think, saw it in the context of discipline, this is discipline and, if you remove the discipline, you’ll be taking away something fundamental in society.
Lex Fridman
So, Milton Friedman never quite went all the way to laissez-faire?
So, Milton Friedman never quite went all the way to laissez-faire?
Jennifer Burns
No, no, he didn’t see that and what’s really interesting is the number of incredibly radical proposals that he and his teachers were floating. So, I’ve mentioned Frank Knight, another really important influence on Friedman was Henry Simons who was a junior professor at Chicago. And Simons had this idea for what he called 100% money which would be a law that says banks have to hold 100% of the deposits they receive, they can’t loan them out on the margin. This would completely and totally have overhauled the US banking system and he would’ve said there’s a category of things called banks where you get deposits and then there’s going to be a category of, he didn’t say investment banks, but investment vehicles that will invest.
No, no, he didn’t see that and what’s really interesting is the number of incredibly radical proposals that he and his teachers were floating. So, I’ve mentioned Frank Knight, another really important influence on Friedman was Henry Simons who was a junior professor at Chicago. And Simons had this idea for what he called 100% money which would be a law that says banks have to hold 100% of the deposits they receive, they can’t loan them out on the margin. This would completely and totally have overhauled the US banking system and he would’ve said there’s a category of things called banks where you get deposits and then there’s going to be a category of, he didn’t say investment banks, but investment vehicles that will invest.
So, similar to what did happen, in some ways, in the banking reforms in that, in the 1930s, the investment banks were split from the deposit banks and the banks that took deposits were much more highly regulated and they were supported by the FDIC. But the point being, the Chicago School had these very radical proposals for reform. Go off the gold standard, restrict the currency, change the banks, immediately relief payments now. What is important to note though is that they thought of all of those as emergency measures to get through the emergency not as permanent alterations in the state of what had to be and not permanent alterations between state and market where the Keynesian assumption is things have changed, times have changed, we’re in a new dispensation and we need a new relationship.
So, Friedman is very, Milton Friedman is very open to doing things differently in a state of emergency. He will have different ideas during World War II than any other time and that’s why I argue I think he would have been supportive of at least the first rounds of coronavirus relief because I think he would have put his emergency thinking hat on. So, in that way, he was definitely more flexible.
Friedrich Hayek
Lex Fridman
You mentioned Hayek. Who is this guy? What’s his relationship to Milton Friedman in the space of ideas and in the context of the Great Depression? Can we talk about that a little bit?
You mentioned Hayek. Who is this guy? What’s his relationship to Milton Friedman in the space of ideas and in the context of the Great Depression? Can we talk about that a little bit?
Jennifer Burns
Sure. So, F.A. Hayek is an Austrian economist who takes up a posting in London and he’s a mentor, a mentee rather of Ludwig von Mises. He’s writing about business cycles, Austrian Capital Theory and the Depression hits and he’s one of the few economists who, in the beginning, really is not calling for much intervention. Although, as he realizes how politically unpalatable that is, he will develop a more softened version of Austrian economics that has room for a whole range of social services. What’s significant about Hayek is that he is also watching what’s happening in Austria, what’s happening in Germany and he’s really worried the same thing is going to happen to the Western democracies. And he sees the root cause of this is socialism, the shift towards an expanded role for government which, we’ve been talking about, is happening in the United States, it’s also happening in Britain.
Sure. So, F.A. Hayek is an Austrian economist who takes up a posting in London and he’s a mentor, a mentee rather of Ludwig von Mises. He’s writing about business cycles, Austrian Capital Theory and the Depression hits and he’s one of the few economists who, in the beginning, really is not calling for much intervention. Although, as he realizes how politically unpalatable that is, he will develop a more softened version of Austrian economics that has room for a whole range of social services. What’s significant about Hayek is that he is also watching what’s happening in Austria, what’s happening in Germany and he’s really worried the same thing is going to happen to the Western democracies. And he sees the root cause of this is socialism, the shift towards an expanded role for government which, we’ve been talking about, is happening in the United States, it’s also happening in Britain.
And so, he writes this book that becomes incredibly famous, The Road to Serfdom, basically saying taking these steps towards a planned economy or an economy that’s a modified form of capitalism is going to … Could, he’s very clear that this is not an inevitability but, if the same steps are taken and people follow the same line of thinking, we may end up in a coercive, totalitarian state. So, this becomes enormously popular in the United States. First of all, he’s in good touch with Friedman’s teachers even before this book comes out, they see them as kindred spirits. Frank Knight is in touch with him, Henry Simons is in touch with him, they all see themselves as liberals, they call themselves old fashioned unreconstructed liberals. And so, even before he becomes famous, Hayek will be trying to organize thinkers and intellectuals who he believe shares his values of what we would call today classical liberalism and to create a counter consensus to the one that’s gathering.
Now, Hayek also chooses not to argue against Keynes and he feels that this is a huge missed opportunity that he should have staked out the case against Keynes and that, because he did not, people come to believe there is no case against Keynes, Keynes is literally unanswerable. So, Hayek will have this great regret, he will channel some of his regrets into community building, specifically developing The Mont Pelerin Society, and it will fall to Friedman to really make that case against Keynes. But Hayek will end up at Chicago and Hayek really influences Friedman to think about what Hayek calls the competitive order and how the state can and must maintain a competitive order that is the system of laws, of norms, of practices that makes it possible for markets to function.
And this is one of these key differentiators between the older philosophy of laissez-faire and the newer reconceptualization of liberalism which says, yes, we need a state, we need a state that’s not intervening in markets under social democratic auspices but is structuring and supporting markets so that they can function with maximum freedom keeping in mind that, if there aren’t basic social supports needed, the market is apt to generate the type of either inequality or social instability that will call the whole system into question.
So, Hayek is really key in promoting this modified liberalism. But, from being a very prominent economist in the 1920s and 1930s as mathematics becomes the language of economics, Hayek is completely left out in the cold. Now, Friedman, to some degree, is left out in the cold but Friedman at least has proved the mathematical economists and he knows what they’re up to and he’s rejecting it from a position of expertise and knowledge and he literally drives the mathematical economists out of Chicago. They’re clustered in a group called the Cowles Commission and he makes their life hell, they flee, they flee the Friedman onslaught. But then when Hayek arrives at the University of Chicago, he would like to be considered for a position in the economics department and Friedman, Milton Friedman says, “No way, you’re not really an economist because you’re not empirical, because you just developed these theories.”
So, he has an appreciation for Hayek as a social thinker but not as an economist so what Friedman decides to do, his answer to Keynes will be deeply empirical but it will also be theoretical and it will create an alternative intellectual world and approach for economists who aren’t satisfied with Keynesianism. And almost single-handedly, Friedman will introduce political and ideological diversity into the field of economics because, from his beachhead in Chicago, he will develop the theory of monetarism. So, what is monetarism? The easy way to summarize it is this famous dictum of Milton Friedman’s, inflation is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. And it’s fascinating that he becomes an expert in inflation because the first research and the first major research product of monetarism is that theory of the Great Depression in a monetary history of the United States and that is a theory of a deflation, all price is going down.
Money and monetarism
And he will go back to an idea that Irving Fisher had popularized but a very old idea, almost a truism, the Quantity Theory of Money which says the level of the price level is related to the amount of money circulating in an economy. So, if you have more money, prices go up, if you have less money, prices go down. Now, this seems very basic and almost too basic to bear repeating but Friedman is saying this very basic relationship holds true even in an advanced industrial economy and that is what people have started to doubt. And if you think about money, you think about banks, you don’t think necessarily about the federal budget spending and taxation.
And what you see happens in American economics, the textbooks previous to the Keynesian Revolution, they spent a lot of time on money, they spent a lot of time on interest rates. You can do word counts and other scholars have done the word counts and the word count for money after World War II just plummets and you start seeing things like taxation, budget, those things go up. So, what happens is the economics profession shifts its attention, it just looks away from money to other things and Friedman is one of the few who’s saying, no, money still matters, money still counts and it’s a very counterintuitive argument to make, it’s a very historical argument to make and this is absolutely fascinating to me.
With Anna Schwartz, he develops this 150-year timeframe, he also has students working on episodes of hyperinflation in different periods of time, he’s also looking back to ancient history, inflationary episodes there and he’s saying this is a law of economics. This is something that recurs throughout time, it’s not historical, it’s not contingent, it’s a law of economics. And his Keynesian counterpoints are saying, no, that’s not relevant any longer, maybe once it was relevant but it’s not relevant today. Now, in some ways, they have a point because, in order to pay for World War II, the federal government sells a lot of bonds, it issues a lot of debt and it wants to pay this debt back a low interest rate and it wants people to keep buying it, it wants the low interest rate to be competitive with other interest rates. So, wants, in general, low interest rates throughout the economy.
And the Federal Reserve has been so discredited by the Great Depression that the Treasury basically runs the Federal Reserve and says keep interest rates low. And so, that’s what it’s doing and so the Federal Reserve has stopped being an independent entity, it’s just a sub-department of the Treasury. But in 1951, they negotiate what’s called the Treasury Fed Accord and the Federal Reserve gets its independence but it doesn’t really use it but, statutorily, it now has it. And so, most economists are just observing a regime in which the Federal Reserve has no power, a regime in which there is really little inflation, the inflation that is seen is post … There’s a little burst of inflation in the Korean War. And they’re saying inflation’s not really important, it’s not really relevant and money’s not really relevant and important. And so, to break through and to make the argument, that’s why Friedman and Schwartz go to history and they’re able to make that argument for history.
So, then Friedman is coming out with a variety of papers that are saying, when I look at economic fluctuations, he maps them side by side to fluctuations in the money supply and says, look, they fit. And other economists, remember, they’re building complicated mathematical models and Friedman’s doing extremely simple stuff and they just think it’s dumb, it’s not interesting, it’s not true, they don’t buy it at all. But after A Monetary History of the United States, they have to pay attention. So, it’s really in those years Friedman is hammering this idea of monetarism and it starts to become something respectable, bordering on respectable for other economists to look to and think about and that’s really the beginning of the Keynesian Monetarist split where, if you start to give Friedman any credence, you’re heading towards a monetarist position.
Now, at the same time, Friedman comes out very publicly in 1964 as a supporter of Barry Goldwater and Keynesian economics has found a home in the Democratic Party. Its probably brightest moment in the sun is the administration of John F. Kennedy who brings in a lot of Harvard and Yale professors to the Council of Economic Advisors, he proposes a series of spending programs that are really guided by the Keynesian philosophy. And the Barry Goldwater is tremendously controversial, part for his votes against civil rights which Friedman really supports and part because he’s a hard core libertarian in an age when that’s not in the political mainstream or not discussed in the political mainstream and he’s just tremendously unpopular particularly in all the educated precincts where Friedman lives. So, Friedman is like an outcast and a pariah for his support of Goldwater.
And so, that actually really affects monetarism because people feel that this is now becoming a package deal and so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s-
Jennifer Burns
And so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s ideas because it seems like you would then have to embrace his politics.
And so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s ideas because it seems like you would then have to embrace his politics.
Lex Fridman
So it’s associated with conservatism.
So it’s associated with conservatism.
Jennifer Burns
So this is the years when conservatism… There is a movement that calls itself conservatism. And Friedman is very tightly allied with this movement from the beginning, partly through his friendship with William F. Buckley. And a lot of people say to me, yeah, but Friedman’s not conservative. And this is like a bigger… You have a whole separate podcast on this.
So this is the years when conservatism… There is a movement that calls itself conservatism. And Friedman is very tightly allied with this movement from the beginning, partly through his friendship with William F. Buckley. And a lot of people say to me, yeah, but Friedman’s not conservative. And this is like a bigger… You have a whole separate podcast on this.
But for now, I’ll just say that conservative in the United States becomes a political brand that contains elements of conservatism that are recognizable across time and space, embrace of tradition or comfort with hierarchy, et cetera. And it also has something new and different, which is Friedman’s ideas about… Milton Friedman’s advocacy of more free markets, less government regulation, and the benefits of capitalism and the benefits of freedom.
And that gets folded into American conservatism, in part because Milton Friedman is such a powerful intellectual figure. And after his advocacy of Goldwater the media realizes this guy’s really smart. He has really interesting things to say. He makes great copy, he makes a great guest, and he starts writing a column for Newsweek magazine, which is a very big deal in a much more consolidated media environment. And he’s quoted in all the newspapers. And so his public profile really starts to rise right as he’s pushing monetarism as an alternative to the Keynesian synthesis.
Lex Fridman
Can we just linger on what is monetarism? Once again-
Can we just linger on what is monetarism? Once again-
Jennifer Burns
Yes. Okay, I didn’t go into it.
Yes. Okay, I didn’t go into it.
Lex Fridman
Okay. The money supply.
Okay. The money supply.
Jennifer Burns
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So money is this thing that you can think of it as a notion where people buy and sell stuff, and there’s this fascinating complex dynamical system of people contracting with each other in this beautiful way. There’s so many pothead questions I want to ask here, about the nature of money. Money is fascinating in that way, and I think for Milton Friedman trusting the flow of money is really important and the signals that pricing and money in general provides is really important.
So money is this thing that you can think of it as a notion where people buy and sell stuff, and there’s this fascinating complex dynamical system of people contracting with each other in this beautiful way. There’s so many pothead questions I want to ask here, about the nature of money. Money is fascinating in that way, and I think for Milton Friedman trusting the flow of money is really important and the signals that pricing and money in general provides is really important.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. And I could take some of this back again to Frank Knight. So one thing Frank Knight said to all his students was the market is the best allocation mechanism we have. The market is what allocates resources. In a situation of scarcity the market allocates them the best. And Hayek will add to that by saying, “prices are information signals, and a price sends information to buyers and sellers about how they should act.” And these are two of the strongest arguments for why the government should not intervene in the price system because it will blur information or because it will allocate less efficiently than market allocation will.
Yeah. And I could take some of this back again to Frank Knight. So one thing Frank Knight said to all his students was the market is the best allocation mechanism we have. The market is what allocates resources. In a situation of scarcity the market allocates them the best. And Hayek will add to that by saying, “prices are information signals, and a price sends information to buyers and sellers about how they should act.” And these are two of the strongest arguments for why the government should not intervene in the price system because it will blur information or because it will allocate less efficiently than market allocation will.
And so what Friedman is really going to add to that is maybe going up a level and thinking in the macro about the whole economy and how money circulates through that economy as a whole. And so what he and Anna Schwartz do is they construct what are called monetary aggregates. This is adding together say all the money that’s on deposit in banks and all the money that’s believed to be circulating in people’s wallets.
And you also have to really go back in time. We don’t have credit cards. There is a stock market, but it’s tiny in terms of the number of people who invest. There aren’t mutual funds. When travelers checks are introduced, this is a big deal. So we have a very simple monetary system. And so Schwartz and Milton Friedman start measuring what they call the monetary aggregates. They focus on M1 and M2 and their favorite aggregate is M2, which I believe is encompassing sort of deposits and circulating medium.
The other thing to recall, there’s some fine distinctions between money in savings accounts and money in checking accounts, and money in savings accounts can earn interest and is generally believed not to circulate or money in checking accounts does not at that time bear interest and cannot legally bear interest. And so is thought of as circulating. And then there’s different institutional architectures of postal savings, banks and credit unions.
But Friedman is one, taking the focus to these aggregate amounts of money and saying, these really have a lot to do with economic booms and busts. When we have an expansion in the amount of available money, we see an expansion in economic activity. When we have a contraction in available money, we have a contraction. And so he says at this stage, the government through the mechanism of the Federal Reserve and its influence on interest rates can either make money more cheaply available and more freely available in the economy or can make money more expensive and slow things down.
But the central core idea of monetarism is this is potentially very bad if the government can hit the gas and then hit the brake, and hit the gas and hit the brake based on say what a politician wants or what somebody at the Federal Reserve wants. You have a lot of instability in the system. And so one of the core policy proposals of monetarism is let’s grow the money supply at a steady rate. And in the beginning, Friedman just says K%, he doesn’t even put a number on it because he says the number doesn’t matter. What matters is the steadiness in the growth rate. Because if it’s a steady growth rate, it will fade away. And then people will make economic decisions based on the fundamentals, not based on what they think is going to happen, not based on hedging against inflation or hedging against deflation. They’ll just be able to function.
So this is sort of the paradox of monetary policy. When it’s happening right you don’t see it, you don’t notice it. When it’s happening wrong, Friedman argues, it can just fundamentally destabilize everything. It can cause a great depression, can cause an artificial boom. And so he’s taking monetary policy at a time when most economists think it’s completely irrelevant and saying, this is the central game of the economy. Now we live in a world where we believe this and the Federal Reserve chair can’t open their mouth without headlines being generated. But Friedman is saying this at a time when the Federal Reserve is a mysterious and secretive organization. It’s not well-known, it’s not deeply appreciated. Some of the only people who appreciate the Fed’s power are hardcore rural populists, who have constituents who think the banks and money power are the problem, who are throwbacks from the frontier days.
So Friedman in the beginning has no constituency for this policy. He has no constituency for this analysis. And so just going back to summarize monetarism, it’s looking, it’s using the quantity theory of money to analyze the macroeconomy. It’s proposing a policy of slow and steady growth in the money supply. And then it is arguing that inflationary episodes when they emerge are profoundly driven by changes in the money supply, not by anything else.
Lex Fridman
And going even up a level as we started, how epic is it to develop this idea, to hold this idea and then to convince the United States of this idea that money matters, that today we believe is mostly correct for now? And so just this idea that goes against the experts and then eventually wins out and drives so much of the economy, the biggest, the most powerful economy in the world. So fascinating.
And going even up a level as we started, how epic is it to develop this idea, to hold this idea and then to convince the United States of this idea that money matters, that today we believe is mostly correct for now? And so just this idea that goes against the experts and then eventually wins out and drives so much of the economy, the biggest, the most powerful economy in the world. So fascinating.
Stagflation
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. So that’s a fascinating story. And so what happens is Friedman has advanced all these ideas, he’s ruled the economics profession, he’s built a political profile and then he becomes the head of the American Economics Association. And he is asked in that role to give a presidential address. And so he gives his presidential address December 1967, and he says, “I’m going to talk about inflation and I’m going to talk about the trade-off between inflation and unemployment.” And this is what’s generally known as the Phillips Curve and the Phillips Curve in its original form is derived of post-World War II data. So it’s derived of about 12 years of data, and it shows that when inflation goes up, unemployment goes down. And the idea would make sense that as the economy’s heating up and lots of things are happening, more and more people are getting hired.
Yeah. So that’s a fascinating story. And so what happens is Friedman has advanced all these ideas, he’s ruled the economics profession, he’s built a political profile and then he becomes the head of the American Economics Association. And he is asked in that role to give a presidential address. And so he gives his presidential address December 1967, and he says, “I’m going to talk about inflation and I’m going to talk about the trade-off between inflation and unemployment.” And this is what’s generally known as the Phillips Curve and the Phillips Curve in its original form is derived of post-World War II data. So it’s derived of about 12 years of data, and it shows that when inflation goes up, unemployment goes down. And the idea would make sense that as the economy’s heating up and lots of things are happening, more and more people are getting hired.
And so this relationship has led policymakers to think that sometimes inflation is good, and if you want to lower unemployment, you could let inflation go a little bit. And in the crude forms, it becomes to seem like a menu. Like you could take your model and you could plug in, I want this much unemployment. And it would say, well, great, this is how much inflation you should do. And so then you would target that inflation rate.
So Friedman gets up and he says, “this is wrong. This might work in the short term, but it’s not going to work in the long term.” Because in the long term inflation has… First of all, it has a momentum of its own. Once it gets going, it tends to build on itself. The accelerationist thesis, it accelerates. And once inflation gets going, and the reason it gets going is because workers go to the store and they see the price level has gone up, things have cost more. They ask for their wages to go up, then eventually the wages will go up too high and they will no longer be hireable or companies will decide at these high wages I can’t hire as many workers, I’d better lay off. So if inflation keeps going eventually over the long term it will result in high unemployment.
So he says, “theoretically, you could end up in a situation where you have high inflation and high unemployment. This hasn’t been seen,” but he says, “theoretically this could happen.” And then he goes and he says, “and the government has started expanding the money supply in 1966, so we’re going to get a bunch of inflation, and then we’re going to get a bunch of unemployment.” And he estimates about how long it will take. And then he says, “once this all happens, it will take about 20 years to get back to normal.” And-
Lex Fridman
And he predicts the stagflation of the 1970s.
And he predicts the stagflation of the 1970s.
Jennifer Burns
Stagflation of the 1970s.
Stagflation of the 1970s.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 01:19:39] for an economy. Again against the mainstream belief represented by the Phillips Curve.
[inaudible 01:19:39] for an economy. Again against the mainstream belief represented by the Phillips Curve.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. And what really makes it happen is that many of the economists who most deeply dislike Friedman and most deeply dislike his politics in the 1970s, as they’re running their models, they start to say Friedman’s, right? They start to see in the data that he’s right.
Yeah. And what really makes it happen is that many of the economists who most deeply dislike Friedman and most deeply dislike his politics in the 1970s, as they’re running their models, they start to say Friedman’s, right? They start to see in the data that he’s right.
And a very parallel process happens in Britain. Britain is going through a very similar burst of spending, burst of inflation. And so Friedman is vindicated in this very profound way, in the way that he himself said would be the ultimate vindication, which is, my theory should predict. So that prediction of stagflation is really the sort of final breakthrough of his ideas and also their importance to policy and to thinking about how we should intervene or not in the economy and what the role of the Federal Reserve is. Because he’s saying the Federal Reserve is incredibly powerful. And finally people start to believe him.
Lex Fridman
And I don’t know if we said, but to make clear stagflation means high unemployment and high inflation, which is a thing like you mentioned, was not seen before and he predicted accurately. And it also disproves the relationship, the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation.
And I don’t know if we said, but to make clear stagflation means high unemployment and high inflation, which is a thing like you mentioned, was not seen before and he predicted accurately. And it also disproves the relationship, the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. Now I should say the Phillips Curve is still out there. It’s been expectations augmented and it is relevant in the short term, but Friedman’s warning is still very much apt, that if you get too focused on unemployment you can let inflation out of the bag. And so until very recently, the Federal Reserve’s tradition has been focusing on inflation, believing that’s fundamental and that will keep unemployment low, rather than trying to lower unemployment at the cost of raising inflation.
Yeah. Now I should say the Phillips Curve is still out there. It’s been expectations augmented and it is relevant in the short term, but Friedman’s warning is still very much apt, that if you get too focused on unemployment you can let inflation out of the bag. And so until very recently, the Federal Reserve’s tradition has been focusing on inflation, believing that’s fundamental and that will keep unemployment low, rather than trying to lower unemployment at the cost of raising inflation.
Moral case for capitalism
Lex Fridman
Can we go back to Frank Knight and the big picture thing we started with, which is the justification of capitalism?
Can we go back to Frank Knight and the big picture thing we started with, which is the justification of capitalism?
Jennifer Burns
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So as you mentioned, Milton Friedman searched for a moral justification of capitalism. Frank Knight was a big influence on Milton Friedman and including on this topic of understanding the moral justification of capitalism. I think you spoke about Knight’s Case for capitalism was grounded in the idea that the ability to act in the face of uncertainty creates profit. And it should, because taking risks should be rewarded. So this idea that taking risks in the face of uncertainty should create profit, and that becomes a justification, the ethics of capitalism. Can you just speak to that?
So as you mentioned, Milton Friedman searched for a moral justification of capitalism. Frank Knight was a big influence on Milton Friedman and including on this topic of understanding the moral justification of capitalism. I think you spoke about Knight’s Case for capitalism was grounded in the idea that the ability to act in the face of uncertainty creates profit. And it should, because taking risks should be rewarded. So this idea that taking risks in the face of uncertainty should create profit, and that becomes a justification, the ethics of capitalism. Can you just speak to that?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. So Knight is talking about where does profit come from? And to his mind, it comes from the entrepreneurial function and the risk-taking function. And so he kind of weaves that into why capitalism works best and why it’s the most effective allocation machine and why it assigns responsibility in a way he believes that a socialist system never could.
Yeah. So Knight is talking about where does profit come from? And to his mind, it comes from the entrepreneurial function and the risk-taking function. And so he kind of weaves that into why capitalism works best and why it’s the most effective allocation machine and why it assigns responsibility in a way he believes that a socialist system never could.
Now, Knight though is not a booster of capitalism. It could be in part because he’s just a darkly pessimistic kind of depressive guy. And so he’s afraid capitalism is going to collapse and socialism or fascism is going to take over, or communism. And so he kind of descends into darkness there. Friedman as the more optimist believes with Hayek, that you can develop a different approach to capitalism that would preserve the price system, preserve allocation, but build in social supports, build in a social minimum, things like this.
But there’s a moment in his career where he’s really struggling to figure out, how do I make this case for capitalism? And basically the whole conservative movement or people who we later call the conservative movement are struggling to make this case. And he starts thinking about what makes capitalism work is that if you put forth effort, you get a reward. So then you could say, well, people get what they deserve under capitalism.
But then he kind of stops and he says, “that’s not really true, because we’re born with such different endowments and there’s a huge quotient of luck. So some people are just in the right position and some people aren’t. So if I say capitalism is moral because people get what they deserve, that’s not really true.” And he also kind of has an ethical reaction, which he ends up calling an aesthetic reaction. He’s kind of like, it just doesn’t feel right to say that. And so he struggles for a while with, what do I say? And then he basically says, “capitalism, it can’t be the core. Discipline of the market, can’t be the core to your ethics, it has to be something else.” So that’s when he will decide it’s freedom, it’s individual freedom. That’s really the ethical core. And capitalism makes individual freedom possible, because capitalism is dedicated to maximizing that.
And so the defense of capitalism comes through freedom. And at his stage in history, he’s able to set aside nice worry about inequality and say, when I look at the data, and this is true for the macro data at mid-century, incomes are actually converging. And also if you look historically, if a country goes from say, a more feudal, agrarian society to a more market-based society, incomes will converge. Now and then they might start to diverge. But Friedman’s in the moment when he’s seeing the convergence.
And so that’s what he’s really focused on. So he believes he can justify capitalism through the ethic of freedom. And he also believes that inequality is a problem that can be addressed through specific policies, and it’s not a fundamental feature of capitalism. In other words, he doesn’t see capitalism as an engine of inequality the way that Frank Knight did and the way that maybe some critics on the left would.
Freedom
Lex Fridman
How did he conceive of freedom? So individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, civil freedom, what was the tension, the dynamic between those different freedoms for him?
How did he conceive of freedom? So individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, civil freedom, what was the tension, the dynamic between those different freedoms for him?
Jennifer Burns
So he really begins focusing on economic freedom. And he says it’s really important to focus on economic freedom because in the United States we don’t value it enough. By economic freedom he means the ability to keep what you’ve earned, the ability to make decisions about your business, the ability to make decisions about the work that you do. So this will translate into things like, there shouldn’t be a minimum wage. He believes the minimum wage has bad social effects, but he also believes you should be free to accept a job at a wage that you yourself have determined is acceptable to you. And there should be very minimal regulation questions around safety and other things, because the market will ultimately, if you create an unsafe product, it won’t sell. And that’s sort of your incentive.
So he really begins focusing on economic freedom. And he says it’s really important to focus on economic freedom because in the United States we don’t value it enough. By economic freedom he means the ability to keep what you’ve earned, the ability to make decisions about your business, the ability to make decisions about the work that you do. So this will translate into things like, there shouldn’t be a minimum wage. He believes the minimum wage has bad social effects, but he also believes you should be free to accept a job at a wage that you yourself have determined is acceptable to you. And there should be very minimal regulation questions around safety and other things, because the market will ultimately, if you create an unsafe product, it won’t sell. And that’s sort of your incentive.
So he really centers economic freedom because he thinks especially, and he’s really speaking from his vantage point in the universities and speaking to the kind of liberal consensus of the ’50s and ’60s, he thinks economic freedom has been undervalued in the American context. So he really wants to push that forward. He’s really kind of taking political freedom for granted.
Now later in his career when he becomes famous, he’s traveling the world, he spends time in Chile, and this country is now being ruled by a dictator, Augusto Pinochet, who starts introducing economic freedom, but there’s no political freedom. And Milton Friedman believes eventually these two things are going to go together. He tells Pinochet, “you’ve got economic freedom, and eventually it’s going to mean political freedom.” Pinochet is like, “okay, fine, not really interested in that. I want to know what I should do about inflation.”
But then when Milton Friedman leaves Chile, he is attacked and vilified for having been a supporter. It’s interpreted that he’s a supporter of the regime, which he’s not, but he realizes he has talked too much about economic freedom and he hasn’t talked enough about political freedom. He’s kind of assumed political freedom, because he’s come from the American context. So then he starts recalibrating them and saying, you know what? If you don’t have political freedom, you’re never going to be able to hold on to economic freedom. So he sees that they need to go together and they don’t naturally go together. And so he starts to become more clear in talking about political freedom.
Now let’s fast-forward to the end of his life, and he’s witnessing the emergence of what we call the Asian tiger. So capitalist economies that are doing very well, but they don’t have political freedom. But then he observes, you don’t have political freedom, in that you can’t vote in a free and fair election, but they also don’t have a Stasi, they don’t have a KGB. They’re not hauling people off for their wrong opinions. So then he says they have something called civic freedom. And so he kind of defines this third sphere, civic freedom, of debate, discussion, interpersonal relations, but you can’t be political.
So this is a late in life edition. I don’t think it’s fully theorized. I think what it shows is that during the Cold War, he very much believed economic and political freedom, capitalism and freedom, democracy, the United States, capitalism, this all went together. And he starts to see at the end of his life the emergence of different social systems that are using market trading and allocation, but aren’t giving people similar freedoms. And he’s kind of puzzling over that.
Now, he always believes that China will democratize, and he thinks China’s on the path to democratization, in part because Chile does democratize. Eventually Pinochet has voted out and it’s become a democratic capitalist and very prosperous country. And he thinks that’s exactly what’s happening in China. He sees Tiananmen and he doesn’t live long enough to get to where we are now in which doesn’t look like political or civic freedom is coming to China anytime soon.
Lex Fridman
And he did oppose the dual-track system of China, meaning the market is bottom-up, the government and China’s top-down and you can’t have both.
And he did oppose the dual-track system of China, meaning the market is bottom-up, the government and China’s top-down and you can’t have both.
Jennifer Burns
He thought you couldn’t have both.
He thought you couldn’t have both.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jennifer Burns
He thought eventually the market would triumph.
He thought eventually the market would triumph.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s a really powerful idea to say, okay, maybe there’s not political freedom, but just hold on to the economic freedom and eventually that’s going to give political freedom. Is that correct to say, start to work on the economic freedom and the political freedom piece will take care of itself?
Well, that’s a really powerful idea to say, okay, maybe there’s not political freedom, but just hold on to the economic freedom and eventually that’s going to give political freedom. Is that correct to say, start to work on the economic freedom and the political freedom piece will take care of itself?
Jennifer Burns
That’s what he believed. That’s what he believed, yeah. I think it’s more complicated than that. The people who gain out of a system of economic freedom could decide to collude in a system where there isn’t political freedom. That’s certainly a scenario. But again, that’s that core idea of freedom and that core belief that people want freedom and that people are drawn to freedom.
That’s what he believed. That’s what he believed, yeah. I think it’s more complicated than that. The people who gain out of a system of economic freedom could decide to collude in a system where there isn’t political freedom. That’s certainly a scenario. But again, that’s that core idea of freedom and that core belief that people want freedom and that people are drawn to freedom.
Ethics of competition
Lex Fridman
Just to go back to Frank Knight a little bit, he wrote an essay called The Ethics of Competition, he had the metaphor that economic life is a game. And then maybe that extends to society as a whole, like the entirety of it is a competitive game. And Milton Friedman, I think, adapted some of this, appreciated some of this. Can you speak to this metaphor?
Just to go back to Frank Knight a little bit, he wrote an essay called The Ethics of Competition, he had the metaphor that economic life is a game. And then maybe that extends to society as a whole, like the entirety of it is a competitive game. And Milton Friedman, I think, adapted some of this, appreciated some of this. Can you speak to this metaphor?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. I think what the metaphor of the game does is it asks you, okay, well what are the rules then? And let’s focus on the rules that keep the game going. So he didn’t use the concept of an infinite game, but I think that’s an interesting one, a game that all the players are in and keep going again and again and again.
Yeah. I think what the metaphor of the game does is it asks you, okay, well what are the rules then? And let’s focus on the rules that keep the game going. So he didn’t use the concept of an infinite game, but I think that’s an interesting one, a game that all the players are in and keep going again and again and again.
And so that helped Knight along with Hayek shift from the allocation question, who’s getting what? Are things allocated fairly? To the more structural question of what are the rules of the game that we need to keep this system going? And so for a while that led to the discussion of monopoly. Well, we need rules against concentration or we need the rule of law. Everyone needs to be treated equally. People need to know what they’re up against. And then going back to monetarism, the core of monetarism is a rule. Friedman called it a monetary growth rule.
And so again, what keeps the economic game going is a rule about how much the money grows, that everybody knows. Nobody’s guessing, nobody’s changing the rules to help their side or to help the people they’re friendly with. We all know it’s there, it’s clear, it’s easy. And so that emphasis on rules I think really has a through line. It goes into Hayek’s competitive order, and then it goes into the monetary growth rule. And then today, monetary policy makes use of monetary policy rules. We have not abandoned discretion, but rules are used as a heuristic or a check, and those come out of freedman’s thinking.
And so it’s something… It’s really profound, and it was always counterposed to discretion, which Friedman worried would be subject to capture or political corruption. If you had discretion in policymaking or if you had discretion in these very big areas, then people would stop competing against each other in a market and they would turn their attention to getting control of the rules or the rule makers.
Lex Fridman
So if there’s clear transparent rules, then you’re free to play the game.
So if there’s clear transparent rules, then you’re free to play the game.
Jennifer Burns
Yes, exactly.
Yes, exactly.
Lex Fridman
But then depending on the rules, the game can turn out the equilibrium that it arrives at might be different. So that speaks to the mechanism design, the design of the rules.
But then depending on the rules, the game can turn out the equilibrium that it arrives at might be different. So that speaks to the mechanism design, the design of the rules.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. And that was again, to go back to the idea separating new liberalism or neoliberalism from classical liberalism was more of a focus on what are the rules that are needed? What is the competitive order that we want to set out? How do we design in social safeguards? How do we think about it?
Yeah. And that was again, to go back to the idea separating new liberalism or neoliberalism from classical liberalism was more of a focus on what are the rules that are needed? What is the competitive order that we want to set out? How do we design in social safeguards? How do we think about it?
And so that shift towards monetary policy and focusing on stable monetary growth, that becomes really important in the post-’70s era, is one of the basic rules of how capitalist economies should function. And it becomes really important because they see the example of say countries most notably in Latin America where monetary rules weren’t followed and different governments played politics with their currencies, and that created huge upheaval and huge social loss, economic loss, just economic disaster.
Win-win solutions
Lex Fridman
So my friend, she’s a poker player, philosopher of sorts, great human being, she has a podcast called Win-Win that everybody should listen to. And the whole purpose of the podcast and her whole way of being in spirit is to find win-win solutions. So do you think of economic life as having such win-win solutions? So being able to find rules where everybody wins, or is it always going to be zero-sum?
So my friend, she’s a poker player, philosopher of sorts, great human being, she has a podcast called Win-Win that everybody should listen to. And the whole purpose of the podcast and her whole way of being in spirit is to find win-win solutions. So do you think of economic life as having such win-win solutions? So being able to find rules where everybody wins, or is it always going to be zero-sum?
Jennifer Burns
I definitely believe in win-win, but with a big asterisk, you can have win-win, but it can feel like win-lose, which is, it’s not just are people getting more, it has a lot to do with do people feel they’re getting more, and do people feel they’re getting what’s fair and equal?
I definitely believe in win-win, but with a big asterisk, you can have win-win, but it can feel like win-lose, which is, it’s not just are people getting more, it has a lot to do with do people feel they’re getting more, and do people feel they’re getting what’s fair and equal?
So you could have a situation, for instance, if you look at the history of going back to Chile, it has steady growth, steady income growth, steady diminution of inequality, and a high level of discontent within the society and a high level of belief that the society is corrupt and unfair. And that’s what matters, how people feel about it, how people perceive it, it matters. And we saw this recently, you can’t just come out with a bunch of statistics and tell people you’re winning in this game if they feel like they’re losing.
So that goes to all the non-rational factors and all the comparative factors that people have when they think about where they are vis-a-vis other people in society. So we’re just incredibly social creatures. We’re incredibly attuned to our status to rising and falling to where we sit vis-a-vis others. And so that absolutely has to be attended to. It can’t just be an economic analysis.
Corruption
Lex Fridman
That’s so interesting that the experience of the economy is different than the reality of the economy. On the topic of corruption, I think the reality of corruption versus the perception of corruption is really important in a lot of these nations. You take Ukraine for example, the perception of corruption has a big impact on the economy. You don’t want to invest. You’re very cautious as a business person. The reality of corruption can be way different than the actual perception. But if narratives stay cold, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, that it has a big effect on the psychology of the people involved. It’s interesting.
That’s so interesting that the experience of the economy is different than the reality of the economy. On the topic of corruption, I think the reality of corruption versus the perception of corruption is really important in a lot of these nations. You take Ukraine for example, the perception of corruption has a big impact on the economy. You don’t want to invest. You’re very cautious as a business person. The reality of corruption can be way different than the actual perception. But if narratives stay cold, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, that it has a big effect on the psychology of the people involved. It’s interesting.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. This goes back to Keynes’s analysis of the great depression. If people won’t invest, if they’re spooked, if the investing classes are spooked, you could be in real trouble. And in some ways, this simple analysis of the problem and proposal of a solution was enough to restore eventually the path to academic prosperity, right? That’s Franklin Roosevelt, “nothing to fear, but fear itself.” The sense of we know we have a future, we have optimism, then you believe in it.
Yeah. This goes back to Keynes’s analysis of the great depression. If people won’t invest, if they’re spooked, if the investing classes are spooked, you could be in real trouble. And in some ways, this simple analysis of the problem and proposal of a solution was enough to restore eventually the path to academic prosperity, right? That’s Franklin Roosevelt, “nothing to fear, but fear itself.” The sense of we know we have a future, we have optimism, then you believe in it.
And to go back to thinking about money, money works because we all believe in it. It’s a form of social trust, and it’s a form of belief and faith in our society and in the other people in it. And when that breaks down, the money system will break down as well.
Lex Fridman
Is there something that Milton Friedman said and thought about how to control the psychology of humans at scale?
Is there something that Milton Friedman said and thought about how to control the psychology of humans at scale?
Jennifer Burns
No. What’s interesting is he does talk, especially in his later work, he says, we have fiat currency. And this is an experiment. And we don’t know how it’s going to turn out and it’s turning out okay right now, but we’ve always had a commodity-based or backed currency of some form or another. And this is the first time. And so who really knows? So far so good.
No. What’s interesting is he does talk, especially in his later work, he says, we have fiat currency. And this is an experiment. And we don’t know how it’s going to turn out and it’s turning out okay right now, but we’ve always had a commodity-based or backed currency of some form or another. And this is the first time. And so who really knows? So far so good.
And he also is very attuned, it’s interesting in his later writings when he’s thinking about this too, sure, I could design a monetary system that would be different, but when I look at history, I see that monetary systems have always say incorporated the role of the state. Because it’s so important to people. And so therefore, my theoretical designs really have to be tempered by what I’ve actually seen happen in history.
Government intervention
Lex Fridman
So maybe we could speak to this tension between how much government intervention is okay for Milton Friedman. So he was against minimum wage, but he was for guaranteed minimum income. Can you explain actually the difference between the two?
So maybe we could speak to this tension between how much government intervention is okay for Milton Friedman. So he was against minimum wage, but he was for guaranteed minimum income. Can you explain actually the difference between the two?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. So this was one of the discoveries I made in my research. I found a paper from 1938. He wrote advocating what we would call today a universal basic income, a minimum income. And he basically sees this as part of the effort to create a new liberalism. And he basically says, we have advanced societies, we have prosperous societies. We have decided in keeping with our morals and our ethics that people should not be starving in an advanced society like this. The question is how are we going to make that happen?
Yeah. So this was one of the discoveries I made in my research. I found a paper from 1938. He wrote advocating what we would call today a universal basic income, a minimum income. And he basically sees this as part of the effort to create a new liberalism. And he basically says, we have advanced societies, we have prosperous societies. We have decided in keeping with our morals and our ethics that people should not be starving in an advanced society like this. The question is how are we going to make that happen?
And he ended up believing the best thing to do was to put a floor under everybody. And he said, you can get that based on your income. If you have a lot of income, you don’t get it. If you have a little income, you might get a little bit of it. If you have no income, you get enough of it. And he believed in the beginning, you should base that on what was required to buy food. That would be kind of an objective. You could objectively determine the nutrition and the price of food.
And so that for him… It’s important, he says it’s keeping with a liberal polity because it’s not intervening in the price system, it’s not intervening in economic relations. And it does not, in his view, require a bureaucracy to administer. It is not, in his view, require that you qualify for it by virtue of being in a protected class. You just get it as kind of part of your membership in this general citizenship body.
And so that to him was really different than a minimum wage because it did not interfere with the work bargain. His belief about minimum wages was specifically that it priced out unskilled labor. That what an unskilled laborer had to offer was a willingness to work for a very low wage. And if you set the minimum wage too high, businesses instead of hiring that higher-priced labor would not hire. Or we could think of today, they put in an electronic checkout or something like this, where you don’t actually need the labor.
So he really believed the minimum wage had that perverse incentive. Now, this is a live debate on what minimum wages do, and there seems to be a level at which you can set them that they can not have that perverse effect, and in fact can kind of create people with more spending money, that then powers the economy. So he had a very sort of clinical analysis of that rather than an empirical one or a really abstract analysis.
But the minimum income is fascinating because it seems very leftist to us. But what it is it’s purely individualistic. And it never really happened because it was so purely individualistic. Because American social policy typically identifies this group of people is deserving and we’ll give them benefits. So the classic example is soldiers, veterans. Another example is mothers raising dependent children. These people deserve money. The rest of you, you better go out and work. And so Friedman’s proposal, it really caught on in the ’60s. It ultimately went nowhere, but it was no litmus test, no income analysis, just we’re going to give you this much, everyone’s going to get this much. And he decided once mass…
Jennifer Burns
… this much. Everyone’s going to get this much. And he decided once mass taxation had come in, you could do it through taxes, and you could just rebate people who didn’t pay income taxes got a rebate that actually came to pass. It’s the earned income tax credit, and it’s considered extremely successful by policy analysts. It does what it’s supposed to do. It’s not that expensive. And so I see that as a paradigm of his thinking in that instead of creating a bureaucracy that does some form of redistribution or instead of trying to intervene in the market for labor or the market for something else, the market for housing, you provide a cash grant that people spend for themselves.
… this much. Everyone’s going to get this much. And he decided once mass taxation had come in, you could do it through taxes, and you could just rebate people who didn’t pay income taxes got a rebate that actually came to pass. It’s the earned income tax credit, and it’s considered extremely successful by policy analysts. It does what it’s supposed to do. It’s not that expensive. And so I see that as a paradigm of his thinking in that instead of creating a bureaucracy that does some form of redistribution or instead of trying to intervene in the market for labor or the market for something else, the market for housing, you provide a cash grant that people spend for themselves.
And so interestingly, that’s what happened in the emergency situation of COVID, right? That’s exactly what people did. They followed that model. We just get money out quick. And there’s a lot of discussions still about UBI is something that should be done. And I think it’s always going to be hard to pull off because I think Americans and their elected representatives don’t want to provide a universal benefit. They want to provide a targeted benefit because they believe there’s a moral component here. And Friedman advanced a policy that was really abstract and really it was devoid of judgment. It was pure and beautiful in that way but utterly impractical.
Lex Fridman
And it really focused on not interfering with the market and the signals that the market provides. He was really against price controls for the same kind of reason.
And it really focused on not interfering with the market and the signals that the market provides. He was really against price controls for the same kind of reason.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, exactly. You could say, “Okay, but how does this not interfere with the market, right? If you provide people with a minimum income, won’t that change their incentives to work, et cetera?” There’s a big body of research on this. Most of it seems to show, that one, it’s way better than the current benefits cliff where you have to not work to get your benefits. And any incentive impact on working seems to be much lower than would be expected. But I’ll let the economists and the social scientists fight that one out and figure it out empirically. Hopefully, we should be able to.
Yeah, exactly. You could say, “Okay, but how does this not interfere with the market, right? If you provide people with a minimum income, won’t that change their incentives to work, et cetera?” There’s a big body of research on this. Most of it seems to show, that one, it’s way better than the current benefits cliff where you have to not work to get your benefits. And any incentive impact on working seems to be much lower than would be expected. But I’ll let the economists and the social scientists fight that one out and figure it out empirically. Hopefully, we should be able to.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s been a bunch of studies. It’s interesting even just how you conduct studies like this, how you do these kinds of experiments, especially if you’re empirically minded because a lot of the studies I saw is they’re pretty small, so how do you make big conclusions about how to run the world, how to run the economies from such small studies? It’s all a fascinating experiment of ideas, and it’s also inspiring to see individuals and maybe small groups of individuals like the Chicago School of Economics to shake out what we believe and how we run the world.
Yeah, there’s been a bunch of studies. It’s interesting even just how you conduct studies like this, how you do these kinds of experiments, especially if you’re empirically minded because a lot of the studies I saw is they’re pretty small, so how do you make big conclusions about how to run the world, how to run the economies from such small studies? It’s all a fascinating experiment of ideas, and it’s also inspiring to see individuals and maybe small groups of individuals like the Chicago School of Economics to shake out what we believe and how we run the world.
Conservatism
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Inspiring. You call Milton Friedman, The Last Great Conservative, maybe to be a little bit controversial and make bold statements that get everybody excited, but what do you mean by that, and what makes it great conservative?
Inspiring. You call Milton Friedman, The Last Great Conservative, maybe to be a little bit controversial and make bold statements that get everybody excited, but what do you mean by that, and what makes it great conservative?
Jennifer Burns
So I was really thinking of that in terms of American political identities and particularly the 20th-century conservative movement, which people are always saying, “This isn’t conservatism.” And I’m saying, “Yes, in America, conservatism is different. It looks different. It feels different.” Conservatism in America builds in a big component of what we could call libertarianism, anti-government ideas and critics will say, but conservatism is about conserving institutions and practices, and it has a role for the state and an organic community. But in the United States, it’s always had since the 20th century also this anti-statist, let’s let the market rip. It’s not worry about what the market does to establish traditions. The market is our tradition. Capitalism is our tradition, so that was really synthesized.
So I was really thinking of that in terms of American political identities and particularly the 20th-century conservative movement, which people are always saying, “This isn’t conservatism.” And I’m saying, “Yes, in America, conservatism is different. It looks different. It feels different.” Conservatism in America builds in a big component of what we could call libertarianism, anti-government ideas and critics will say, but conservatism is about conserving institutions and practices, and it has a role for the state and an organic community. But in the United States, it’s always had since the 20th century also this anti-statist, let’s let the market rip. It’s not worry about what the market does to establish traditions. The market is our tradition. Capitalism is our tradition, so that was really synthesized.
Many people were there, but Friedman and the importance of his books Free to Choose Capitalism, and Freedom, the television series he did. All of these were core components of this American conservative synthesis as it evolved. And I really see that as having broken down. It is scattered into different pieces and we don’t know where they’re going to come back together again. But Friedman’s push for open global markets, unfettered free trade. It’s getting pushback on both the left and the right. That I think is just a major sign that both parties have turned away from this vision. I don’t know what they’ve turned to, but the way that Friedman brought these pieces together, I think that political moment has passed. So that’s what I was trying to talk about with the book title.
There’s another way though in which I think of him also as a conservative, which is that within the field of economics, he went back to this older idea, the quantity theory of money, and said, “This still has value. This can be applied in the modern day. It is something to teach us.” And he pushed back against this trend towards mathematicization, so he kept writing books. You can still pick up a Friedman book and read it, where’s lots of economics articles and output, it’s unreadable unless you’re in the field.
And so I think in that way, he was trying to conserve methodologically and intellectually the traditions of the field, the work that he and particularly Anna Schwartz did, that literal counting of things and deep analysis of data from the field that was the completely unfashionable and his time. Now, we’ve gone back to it with big data and with computers, but he helped bring that forward and preserve that tradition. So I think of him intellectually as a conservative, if you think of the mode of his thought. And so, what makes a great conservative is one who takes those older ideas and makes them fresh for a new time period. I think that’s exactly what he did.
Lex Fridman
You’ve also spoken about the fact that the times when he was out in public, there was more of an open battle of ideas where conservatism often had William F. Buckley. He had a more vibrant, deep debate over ideas where it seems less deep now.
You’ve also spoken about the fact that the times when he was out in public, there was more of an open battle of ideas where conservatism often had William F. Buckley. He had a more vibrant, deep debate over ideas where it seems less deep now.
Jennifer Burns
That is the thing that it’s hard, especially for the students I teach today, to be like. There were arguments about ideas, and conservatives won a bunch of them. And that happened in the ’70s and late 1960s to 1970s when one set of arguments was about economics. Like, “Okay, this idea of stimulating the economy by spending more. It has a downside. The downside’s called inflation, and the downside’s called too much regulation. And you’ve gone too far in bottling up the actual sources of economic growth and dynamism, and we have to let those free.”
That is the thing that it’s hard, especially for the students I teach today, to be like. There were arguments about ideas, and conservatives won a bunch of them. And that happened in the ’70s and late 1960s to 1970s when one set of arguments was about economics. Like, “Okay, this idea of stimulating the economy by spending more. It has a downside. The downside’s called inflation, and the downside’s called too much regulation. And you’ve gone too far in bottling up the actual sources of economic growth and dynamism, and we have to let those free.”
In social policy, there was also a critique. The Great Society had all these ideas of ending poverty, and people came and analyzed them and said, “The programs aren’t helping. In some ways, you’ve actually created engines to trap people in poverty because you’ve given them a benefit and said, if they actually start to work, they lose the benefit. You’ve created all these perverse incentives,” and these ideas were fought out. They were empirical. They were controversial, and they were based on really deep research and really deep argumentation. And so it seems that era has passed. It seems we’re driven much more quickly by moods rather than thought-through ideas. Right now, it seems the ideas they follow the political mood and try to put together the underpinning of it where it really was the opposite for much of the 20th century.
Lex Fridman
It does seem like we lead with emotional turmoil and the ideas follow versus lead with the ideas and the emotion of the masses respond.
It does seem like we lead with emotional turmoil and the ideas follow versus lead with the ideas and the emotion of the masses respond.
Jennifer Burns
Right, exactly. So, if we think of the evolution of conservatism, it was a whole set of ideas that was crafted, refined. The 1950s, 1960s, 1970s really found their emotional standard-bearer, translator, salesperson in Ronald Reagan, who incidentally had been following these ideas as they developed and had been honing his ability to express them and apply them politically. It’s a very opposite if we look at Trump as the political definer of the era. There’s a set of ideas, but it was more attitudes, impulses, vibes, and the ideas are coming after that, trying to figure out how they patch on. So it’s interesting to watch, to see that difference. And I hazard that a lot of it just has to do with the immediacy of the media environment we’re in, and it’s just power of the media messages to get out so fast.
Right, exactly. So, if we think of the evolution of conservatism, it was a whole set of ideas that was crafted, refined. The 1950s, 1960s, 1970s really found their emotional standard-bearer, translator, salesperson in Ronald Reagan, who incidentally had been following these ideas as they developed and had been honing his ability to express them and apply them politically. It’s a very opposite if we look at Trump as the political definer of the era. There’s a set of ideas, but it was more attitudes, impulses, vibes, and the ideas are coming after that, trying to figure out how they patch on. So it’s interesting to watch, to see that difference. And I hazard that a lot of it just has to do with the immediacy of the media environment we’re in, and it’s just power of the media messages to get out so fast.
Donald Trump
Lex Fridman
What do you think Milton Friedman would say about Donald Trump about him winning in 2024, and just in general, this political moment?
What do you think Milton Friedman would say about Donald Trump about him winning in 2024, and just in general, this political moment?
Jennifer Burns
I think he would love DOGE. I think that’s goes without saying.
I think he would love DOGE. I think that’s goes without saying.
Lex Fridman
He’s hooked on that part.
He’s hooked on that part.
Jennifer Burns
I think he would focus on that part. I think he would really love it. He would be very alarmed by the idea of tariffs and very alarmed by the return to protectionism. I think he believed that part of what made the world peaceful in the second half of the 20th century, as opposed to during World War II, was the world was knit together more by trade. And that was the great hope that if people traded with each other, they wouldn’t fight. He was also a proponent of the free movement of capital. He would absolutely oppose this idea that Nippon Steel wasn’t allowed to invest in the United States. I think he would struggle, and he wholeheartedly embraced Reagan, and he worked to minimize the parts of the Reagan legacy he didn’t like. I think he would find it harder to embrace Trump because he’s not of that style, and he just had a different style. But I’m guessing he would’ve come around through the… I think he would just say, “Okay, we have a chance to reduce the size of government.”
I think he would focus on that part. I think he would really love it. He would be very alarmed by the idea of tariffs and very alarmed by the return to protectionism. I think he believed that part of what made the world peaceful in the second half of the 20th century, as opposed to during World War II, was the world was knit together more by trade. And that was the great hope that if people traded with each other, they wouldn’t fight. He was also a proponent of the free movement of capital. He would absolutely oppose this idea that Nippon Steel wasn’t allowed to invest in the United States. I think he would struggle, and he wholeheartedly embraced Reagan, and he worked to minimize the parts of the Reagan legacy he didn’t like. I think he would find it harder to embrace Trump because he’s not of that style, and he just had a different style. But I’m guessing he would’ve come around through the… I think he would just say, “Okay, we have a chance to reduce the size of government.”
At the same time, the spending plans of the Trump administration are not fiscally conservative in any way, and that was his concern, was not so much with debt but with the feeling that there’s no mechanism to stop the growth of government, that it just grows and grows and grows. And so he ended up believing even deficits aren’t so bad because they make politicians cautious, he thought, about continuing to spend, but I have to believe he would be concerned about the potential threats to the US currency’s position as the world’s reserve currency with increased levels of debt and spending.
He was concerned about low interest rates. He died, I think it’s 2004, 2006, but it was in the beginning, he didn’t see the zero low bound, but he saw low interest rates. And he said, “This isn’t necessarily good. Everyone’s talking about low interest rates as if they’re good, but there should be a price on capital. There should be a price on this. It shouldn’t be so low.” And so he had still the macro insights that I think are important.
Inflation
Lex Fridman
You wrote The Wall Street Journal essay titled How Inflation Ended Neoliberalism and Re-elected Trump, so can we weave that into this discussion in terms of inflation and Trump? What’s the main idea of the essay?
You wrote The Wall Street Journal essay titled How Inflation Ended Neoliberalism and Re-elected Trump, so can we weave that into this discussion in terms of inflation and Trump? What’s the main idea of the essay?
Jennifer Burns
So, the main idea is looking back and saying, “So today, we have been living in a world where people have been focused on monetary policy, steady monetary policy, free trade, reducing regulation. This is all called the neoliberal era.” And my argument was a lot of that arose was driven by inflation, so we have Milton Friedman predict inflation in 1967. It starts breaking out in the 1970s. Britain and the United States, and every institution was designed around stable prices. And once inflation broke out, prices were no longer stable. So, for example, tax rates weren’t inflation-adjusted. So if your income went up because of inflation, you might bump from a low tax rate to an extremely high tax rate, but you don’t actually have more money, on paper you have more money, but everything costs more, so you don’t actually have more money and your taxes have gone up. That kicks off the taxpayer revolt.
So, the main idea is looking back and saying, “So today, we have been living in a world where people have been focused on monetary policy, steady monetary policy, free trade, reducing regulation. This is all called the neoliberal era.” And my argument was a lot of that arose was driven by inflation, so we have Milton Friedman predict inflation in 1967. It starts breaking out in the 1970s. Britain and the United States, and every institution was designed around stable prices. And once inflation broke out, prices were no longer stable. So, for example, tax rates weren’t inflation-adjusted. So if your income went up because of inflation, you might bump from a low tax rate to an extremely high tax rate, but you don’t actually have more money, on paper you have more money, but everything costs more, so you don’t actually have more money and your taxes have gone up. That kicks off the taxpayer revolt.
There’s a whole shift of American corporations towards focusing on financial investments because the tax breaks they used to get for depreciation for building new factories are not inflation-adjusted, so they no longer pay off in an inflationary environment. And then when Paul Volcker comes in early 1980s, and starts fighting inflation really pushes up interest rates to bring down inflation. And that completely reorders the banking sector because banks had statutory legal limits on the interest they could charge. And once general market interest rates exceeded that, it was proliferation of new financial forms to take advantage of that.
So my point was the era we live in was ushered in by inflation, and then everyone turned against all the formulations we had and said, “Well, these have hollowed out our industrial base. We’ve got too much immigration. We’ve got too much economic openness. We need to reshore. We need to focus. We need to turn against all these things. We need to spend more. We’ve disinvested.” And the net result of that turning away, I argued, is people forgot about inflation. They really forgot it could ever exist. And you had a whole set of theories on the left, modern monetary theory, that basically said, “We don’t really need to worry about inflation. We can spend what we want.” And lo and behold, inflation came back. And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that’s all been made possible by inflation.
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order. So I just think it’s one of these things… This is why I think you should study history because if you had studied history, you would be aware of this. And it’s so easy for people to forget, just like the banks forgot that interest rates could ever go up. They got so used to it, and it’s only a 10, 15-year thing, but to them, that seems like forever. So I really do believe what history teaches you to do is just have a much vaster scope in your vision and then take into account the possibilities of so many things happening that are different than what’s happening today. And so I just hope we don’t forget about inflation entirely, but here’s the thing, it is quite a strong chance that Trump’s policies will initiate even worse inflation, and then they will prove to be his undoing, so the ironies of inflation could be continuing.
DOGE
Lex Fridman
Like you said, Milton Friedman would be a big fan of DOGE, so if he was still here today and rolled with Elon Musk and Vivek, what advice would he give? What do you think he would focus on in terms of where to cut, how to cut, how to think about cutting?
Like you said, Milton Friedman would be a big fan of DOGE, so if he was still here today and rolled with Elon Musk and Vivek, what advice would he give? What do you think he would focus on in terms of where to cut, how to cut, how to think about cutting?
Jennifer Burns
His signature policy move, I talk about this, is taking the price mechanism and trying to make that into the policy. And that seems obvious to us today, but in the era that he came in, so there would be rent controls, let’s take away rent controls, let’s let housing prices set themselves, or he was very against national parks, I actually think that national parks are good, so I hope that DOGE people don’t take this up, but that rather than an allocation to fund the national parks, they should be funded by the revenue that they bring in when people visit them. And so I think he was always looking to, let’s let prices make the decisions here, so I think that would be one of the key pieces.
His signature policy move, I talk about this, is taking the price mechanism and trying to make that into the policy. And that seems obvious to us today, but in the era that he came in, so there would be rent controls, let’s take away rent controls, let’s let housing prices set themselves, or he was very against national parks, I actually think that national parks are good, so I hope that DOGE people don’t take this up, but that rather than an allocation to fund the national parks, they should be funded by the revenue that they bring in when people visit them. And so I think he was always looking to, let’s let prices make the decisions here, so I think that would be one of the key pieces.
The other thing I think he’d really be thinking about, he wrote about this a lot, about occupational licensure and barriers to entry. And he felt like one of the worst things that government does, and sometimes it’s private entities that do this, is create barriers to entry to protect industries and markets. So he talked about this in the case of the medical profession, which I think is actually not a good example because I think we all have a collective investment in having medical doctors be highly trained. But so, for instance, you could look at nail technicians or haircutting. There’s often these licensing requirements, or there’s a big kerfuffle. I think it’s DC passed a law that to run a childcare center you have to have a college degree. Well, what does that do? That disenfranchises a whole bunch of would-be entrepreneurs who don’t happen to have a college degree but probably could be really good at this particular business. So I think he would be saying, “Look out for where private interests have used the state to protect themselves and clear away those types of barriers and let competition through prices guide outcomes.”
Lex Fridman
So, open up for more competition and allow for more signals from the market to drive decisions, and so on-
So, open up for more competition and allow for more signals from the market to drive decisions, and so on-
Jennifer Burns
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… which would actually naturally lead to cutting a lot of the bureaucracy of government.
… which would actually naturally lead to cutting a lot of the bureaucracy of government.
Jennifer Burns
I think the other thing he would probably be arguing for is, again, going back to the design of the minimum income or the negative income tax, that there’s a way he… Ultimately, he decided to run it through the tax system. The government’s already collecting this data, they already have your information, and they can just send the money out through the system rather than having a social bureaucracy where you have to come in person, you have to fill out forms, you have to document. Do you own a car? What’s your income? Who lives in the household? And his analysis of that, who that really benefited, was the bureaucracy that processed that paper, that implemented those norms, and that if you could pull that away, you could get help out where it was needed much quicker without having this drag of people doing unproductive work of administering these systems, so trying to cut administrative overhead. And what he didn’t have then, which we have now, is the technology that we have and the ability to send benefits out via smartphone or just to move so much faster and to handle information on a mass scale so much faster.
I think the other thing he would probably be arguing for is, again, going back to the design of the minimum income or the negative income tax, that there’s a way he… Ultimately, he decided to run it through the tax system. The government’s already collecting this data, they already have your information, and they can just send the money out through the system rather than having a social bureaucracy where you have to come in person, you have to fill out forms, you have to document. Do you own a car? What’s your income? Who lives in the household? And his analysis of that, who that really benefited, was the bureaucracy that processed that paper, that implemented those norms, and that if you could pull that away, you could get help out where it was needed much quicker without having this drag of people doing unproductive work of administering these systems, so trying to cut administrative overhead. And what he didn’t have then, which we have now, is the technology that we have and the ability to send benefits out via smartphone or just to move so much faster and to handle information on a mass scale so much faster.
Lex Fridman
It’s painful but I think one of the big things you can do is just that, which is digitalize. I don’t know if that’s a word, but just convert everything into where the speed of signal can be instantaneous. So there’s no paperwork. It goes immediately, and then that means that the pricing signals and all these things are just immediately available to people.
It’s painful but I think one of the big things you can do is just that, which is digitalize. I don’t know if that’s a word, but just convert everything into where the speed of signal can be instantaneous. So there’s no paperwork. It goes immediately, and then that means that the pricing signals and all these things are just immediately available to people.
Jennifer Burns
That seems to be the low-hanging fruit, government IT systems could be vastly improved among.
That seems to be the low-hanging fruit, government IT systems could be vastly improved among.
Lex Fridman
But that would result again with a lot of people getting fired. And I think somebody submitted a question for me saying, “What are your thoughts as a person who cares about compassion? What are your thoughts about government employees, which there’s a lot of that are going to be hurt by DOGE?” It is always a really difficult question. A lot of people get fired to make room for a new system that’s going to lead to a lot of pain.
But that would result again with a lot of people getting fired. And I think somebody submitted a question for me saying, “What are your thoughts as a person who cares about compassion? What are your thoughts about government employees, which there’s a lot of that are going to be hurt by DOGE?” It is always a really difficult question. A lot of people get fired to make room for a new system that’s going to lead to a lot of pain.
Jennifer Burns
There is going to be a lot of pain. I don’t know what the solution is. I think that’s also part of why Friedman favored a minimum income. He talked about it being countercyclical, in other words, when things were really bad, the spending level on it would naturally go up. This is what economists today call an automatic stabilizer. And then, when it’s not needed, the cost of it goes down. Maybe there’s a way to sweeten it with honey and have people take buyouts or things like that. That would certainly be a way better way to go.
There is going to be a lot of pain. I don’t know what the solution is. I think that’s also part of why Friedman favored a minimum income. He talked about it being countercyclical, in other words, when things were really bad, the spending level on it would naturally go up. This is what economists today call an automatic stabilizer. And then, when it’s not needed, the cost of it goes down. Maybe there’s a way to sweeten it with honey and have people take buyouts or things like that. That would certainly be a way better way to go.
Javier Milei
Lex Fridman
I did a podcast with Javier Milei. He has consistently praised Milton Friedman and cited him as one of his inspirations. So what do you think Milton Friedman would say about what’s going on in Argentina and what Javier Milei’s trying to do in Argentina?
I did a podcast with Javier Milei. He has consistently praised Milton Friedman and cited him as one of his inspirations. So what do you think Milton Friedman would say about what’s going on in Argentina and what Javier Milei’s trying to do in Argentina?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I think he would appreciate it. I think Milei is a much more of an Austrian-inspired thinker, but I think he definitely appreciates Friedman. And on the macro level, Friedman always understood it’s really painful to treat inflation, but the more you put it off, the harder it is. So I think he would be trying to get him as he’s doing to just message that short-term pain, long-term gain. I think he’d be very supportive. I think he’d be thrilled to see, also, that Milei is very good at explaining these abstract ideas and putting his policies in the framework of the bigger picture. That was really meaningful to Friedman. I don’t know how politically persuasive it is overall. Milei’s very intense. He doesn’t have the same gifts of salesmanship and setting people at ease that say someone like Ronald Reagan had, but it seems to be that’s what his country was calling for right now.
Yeah, I think he would appreciate it. I think Milei is a much more of an Austrian-inspired thinker, but I think he definitely appreciates Friedman. And on the macro level, Friedman always understood it’s really painful to treat inflation, but the more you put it off, the harder it is. So I think he would be trying to get him as he’s doing to just message that short-term pain, long-term gain. I think he’d be very supportive. I think he’d be thrilled to see, also, that Milei is very good at explaining these abstract ideas and putting his policies in the framework of the bigger picture. That was really meaningful to Friedman. I don’t know how politically persuasive it is overall. Milei’s very intense. He doesn’t have the same gifts of salesmanship and setting people at ease that say someone like Ronald Reagan had, but it seems to be that’s what his country was calling for right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he is more chainsaw-less, like warm blanket. Javier recollects this line from Milton Friedman. I don’t know if this is accurate, but “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither. But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” You think there’s truth to this?
Yeah, he is more chainsaw-less, like warm blanket. Javier recollects this line from Milton Friedman. I don’t know if this is accurate, but “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither. But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” You think there’s truth to this?
Jennifer Burns
I think on the big picture, definitely. We’ve seen focusing too much on equality can be… Because equality is such an alluring word, it can lead you to downgrade all kinds of other things that are really important. But I really think it depends on how you’re defining freedom. The statement is too big and too broad, right? So, if by freedom you mean not having to pay taxes if you’re successful, that can have all kinds of knock-on effects. The idea that people are able to prosper when they’re educated. Where is education going to come from? How is that going to be paid for and supported? And again, to go back to Knight, if you’re generating too much inequality or people are feeling that you’re generating too much inequality, sometimes they value that more than they value freedom, and so I think there has to be more of a balance, and it’s hard to make such global statements. You have to break them down into what actually do you mean.
I think on the big picture, definitely. We’ve seen focusing too much on equality can be… Because equality is such an alluring word, it can lead you to downgrade all kinds of other things that are really important. But I really think it depends on how you’re defining freedom. The statement is too big and too broad, right? So, if by freedom you mean not having to pay taxes if you’re successful, that can have all kinds of knock-on effects. The idea that people are able to prosper when they’re educated. Where is education going to come from? How is that going to be paid for and supported? And again, to go back to Knight, if you’re generating too much inequality or people are feeling that you’re generating too much inequality, sometimes they value that more than they value freedom, and so I think there has to be more of a balance, and it’s hard to make such global statements. You have to break them down into what actually do you mean.
But again, Milei is coming from a very different context, a very different country that has seen so much upheaval, so much government intervention, so much inflation, so much political turmoil. He’s probably thinking about it differently than Friedman was thinking about it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there was, there probably still is, a real threat of hyperinflation. There seems to be a very high level of corruption or the capacity for corruption, so it’s a really messy situation. So Javier Milei likes to recollect this great line from Milton Friedman that, “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither. But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” Do you think there’s a truth to this?
Yeah, there was, there probably still is, a real threat of hyperinflation. There seems to be a very high level of corruption or the capacity for corruption, so it’s a really messy situation. So Javier Milei likes to recollect this great line from Milton Friedman that, “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither. But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” Do you think there’s a truth to this?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, in the macro, for sure. We’ve seen if you really put equality as your goal, it’s such a seductive ideal, and people believe in it so much that they can carry out horrible crimes in the name of equality. But then, focusing on freedom, these words are too big, they’re so hard to define. And so I think you have to ask, “What is the freedom you’re talking about?” Right? If you’re talking about the freedom of ordinary people to be entrepreneurial, to make their own way, to start new things, to continue what they’re doing, to keep what they’ve earned, for sure, that can increase the equality overall.
Yeah, in the macro, for sure. We’ve seen if you really put equality as your goal, it’s such a seductive ideal, and people believe in it so much that they can carry out horrible crimes in the name of equality. But then, focusing on freedom, these words are too big, they’re so hard to define. And so I think you have to ask, “What is the freedom you’re talking about?” Right? If you’re talking about the freedom of ordinary people to be entrepreneurial, to make their own way, to start new things, to continue what they’re doing, to keep what they’ve earned, for sure, that can increase the equality overall.
If you’re talking about lower taxes, if freedom is just a code for lower taxes, there has to be… Lower taxes, in general, great, but if you’re one of the top generators of wealth, there has to be some way to ensure that, say, education, right? People prosper when they’re well-educated, that’s when economies do better. Education is generally state-funded, and you need some way to support that and provide for those institutions that structure society that make competition possible. So, I think it’s just a really broad statement, but again, Milei is coming from a really different context. He’s coming from the South American context, from such upheaval, such economic devastation in pursuit of the goal of equality that I think trying to rebalance with that emphasis on freedom, I definitely see where he is coming from.
Richard Nixon
Lex Fridman
If we can pivot a little bit, we’ve talked about Reagan. What are some interesting stories about how Milton Friedman navigated the Reagan and maybe even the Nixon administrations and how he was able to gain influence?
If we can pivot a little bit, we’ve talked about Reagan. What are some interesting stories about how Milton Friedman navigated the Reagan and maybe even the Nixon administrations and how he was able to gain influence?
Jennifer Burns
Well, the Nixon administration is an interesting case because… So, I’ve been talking about inflation and the different consequences it had. One consequence it had is that it began to undermine the Bretton Woods currency system that was established in the wake of World War II. Now, Bretton Woods, what it did, basically, it ended up inadvertently putting the US dollar at the center of the world economic system. But under Bretton Woods, countries of the industrialized West agreed to trade their currency in set ratios that government set, so a franc was worth so many dollars or a German mark was worth so many francs, and then also under this system, countries could come to the United States, and they could trade the dollars that they held for gold because the US was on a modified gold standard. There was a ratio of gold to paper money. And so the system was set up and very quickly, most countries, the dollar was at the heart of it in that the converting into and out of dollars was really the mechanism of trade for many of these countries.
Well, the Nixon administration is an interesting case because… So, I’ve been talking about inflation and the different consequences it had. One consequence it had is that it began to undermine the Bretton Woods currency system that was established in the wake of World War II. Now, Bretton Woods, what it did, basically, it ended up inadvertently putting the US dollar at the center of the world economic system. But under Bretton Woods, countries of the industrialized West agreed to trade their currency in set ratios that government set, so a franc was worth so many dollars or a German mark was worth so many francs, and then also under this system, countries could come to the United States, and they could trade the dollars that they held for gold because the US was on a modified gold standard. There was a ratio of gold to paper money. And so the system was set up and very quickly, most countries, the dollar was at the heart of it in that the converting into and out of dollars was really the mechanism of trade for many of these countries.
So Friedman said, “What we should have is floating exchange rates.” This is an idea, again, of instead of having a top-down design of policy, an administered policy, we will have policies set by prices, and you should be able to trade currencies on an open market, they should trade, and they should fluctuate, and that would be fine. Totally outlandish idea, but he was pinpointing the fact that Bretton Woods had an instability, and that instability began to emerge in the time of inflation. So you have more and more dollars being printed, they’re worth less and less. If European nations keep trading their currency for dollars, they’re going to be importing inflation into their own economies. So they say, “We don’t want these dollars. We’d like some gold instead.” And they have the right to go to the treasury, send in an order, and get gold out. And so they start doing this more and more, and it becomes… It’s called the gold drain, and the United States starts running out of gold.
They’re aware this is happening through the ’60s. They’re trying various things to fix it. And when Nixon comes into office in ’68, Friedman sends him a memo, and it says, “This is going to be a real problem.” He says something like, “This is a running sore, and you have to lance it right away,” some very graphic-
Lex Fridman
Very nice.
Very nice.
Jennifer Burns
… metaphor, “otherwise it’s going to explode.” Nixon just files the memo away. Nixon loved people to think he was influenced by and following the wisdom of Milton Friedman, but he didn’t actually want to do that. He just wanted the political benefit that came from it. So then comes the moment where the US Treasury Department realizes we are going to run out of gold. What should we do? And everybody decamps to Camp David, and Nixon decides, we’re just going to stop redeeming currency for gold. It’s called slamming the gold window shut. Done. And he also, at that same meeting, decides to institute price controls. He does a whole bunch of stuff. It’s an emergency. He calls it the New Economic Plan, which is an unconscious echo of the Soviet New Economic Plan, so a problematic name, a problematic policy. And Friedman is livid at the price controls, but he’s like, “Actually, it’s great that you close the gold window. Let’s go all the way to floating exchange rates.”
… metaphor, “otherwise it’s going to explode.” Nixon just files the memo away. Nixon loved people to think he was influenced by and following the wisdom of Milton Friedman, but he didn’t actually want to do that. He just wanted the political benefit that came from it. So then comes the moment where the US Treasury Department realizes we are going to run out of gold. What should we do? And everybody decamps to Camp David, and Nixon decides, we’re just going to stop redeeming currency for gold. It’s called slamming the gold window shut. Done. And he also, at that same meeting, decides to institute price controls. He does a whole bunch of stuff. It’s an emergency. He calls it the New Economic Plan, which is an unconscious echo of the Soviet New Economic Plan, so a problematic name, a problematic policy. And Friedman is livid at the price controls, but he’s like, “Actually, it’s great that you close the gold window. Let’s go all the way to floating exchange rates.”
And this idea was heresy within the Treasury Department. Everyone’s very committed to the idea of the gold standard convertibility possibility of the United States at the court, the financial system kind of hem and haw. But at this point, Friedman has a very close relationship with George Shultz, and George Shultz is a high-level appointee who will eventually, over the course of the Nixon administration, become the Treasury Secretary.
And so Friedman is feeding Shultz all his ideas about how we should move to floating exchange rates, how we shouldn’t try to reconstruct Bretton Woods and the people in Treasury… It’s funny because I read some of their accounts, and actually Paul Volcker is in the Treasury Department at this time, and he can sense that Friedman is in here somewhere, feeding his boss ideas. He doesn’t quite know. And in the oral history, Shultz talks about this quite a bit, so at any rate, Friedman exerts this behind-the-scenes influence, and what Shultz does is just lets Bretton Woods fade away. He doesn’t make grand pronouncements. It just slowly the world shifts to a regime of… For a while, it was a regime of steady prices, and then they call it a steady regime of changing prices, or whatever. The language changes, the reality changes, and they end up where they are, so that’s a real measure of Friedman’s influence.
If there had been another economist in Shultz’s ear that said, “No, catastrophe is imminent. We have to go back to Bretton Woods,” he probably would’ve worked harder. The US government would’ve worked harder. And so that becomes one of these pieces of globalization. And what people don’t realize is there used to be, in addition to these floating set capital ratios, you couldn’t bring capital in and out of different countries. You had to register. You couldn’t invest. Where all these rules and strictures and the falling of Bretton Woods really blows that all open. It’s a precursor to globalization, so Friedman is right there.
Now, he’s very ambivalent about Nixon. He sees that Nixon is not an honest person. He thinks he’s very intelligent, and Nixon’s dream is to create a new centrist majority. So, he does many things to go back on his supposed economic principles and ideals. So Friedman does not like this. He doesn’t like the price controls. He’s in communication with his old mentor, Arthur Burns, who’s now the Chair of the Federal Reserve. And Burns is basically doing everything wrong in monetary policy. And I describe this in the book in some detail, these anguished letters back and forth, and basically, as I see it, Burns doesn’t have a solid theory of inflation, and the more Friedman pushes him, it’s almost like Burns is willfully ignoring Friedman and doing the opposite of what Friedman says, so Burns is running a very loose monetary policy.
Inflation is quite considerable over the ’70s. We were all spooked by… What did it get to? 6%, something like that. Recently for a very short time, this is inflation going over 10%, hovering at 8% for basically the whole decade of the ’70s, going up and down but with extremely elevated rates. And so, the Carter presidency largely follows foreign policies. A big part of…
Ronald Reagan
Jennifer Burns
The Carter presidency largely falls. Foreign policy is a big part of it, but the failure to tame inflation is part of it. And then Reagan comes in, and now Reagan loves Friedman and Friedman loves Reagan, very mutual feeling. The Reagan administration creates an advisory economic board. Friedman’s on it. He’s retired now. He’s entering golden years, but he really has Reagan’s ear. And here what he does is he convinces Reagan of his theory of inflation, which is inflation has been caused. It’s a monetary phenomenon that has been caused by bad monetary policy. Inflation has an accelerating dynamic. The only way to end inflation is by really showing and signaling that government policy has changed. And when you do that, it’s very painful for a short amount of time, people will suffer, but then you will come out on the other side into stable prices, and this is what you need for economic prosperity.
The Carter presidency largely falls. Foreign policy is a big part of it, but the failure to tame inflation is part of it. And then Reagan comes in, and now Reagan loves Friedman and Friedman loves Reagan, very mutual feeling. The Reagan administration creates an advisory economic board. Friedman’s on it. He’s retired now. He’s entering golden years, but he really has Reagan’s ear. And here what he does is he convinces Reagan of his theory of inflation, which is inflation has been caused. It’s a monetary phenomenon that has been caused by bad monetary policy. Inflation has an accelerating dynamic. The only way to end inflation is by really showing and signaling that government policy has changed. And when you do that, it’s very painful for a short amount of time, people will suffer, but then you will come out on the other side into stable prices, and this is what you need for economic prosperity.
So the man who implements this policy, Paul Volcker, he’s definitely influenced by Friedman, buys the big picture of Friedman. He even buys Friedman’s specific technique of the monetary growth rule and of the focus on monetary aggregates, which Friedman has said, “Money matters, aggregates matter, and that’s what money is.” Pretty quickly Volcker finds that because of inflation and the financial deregulation in response to it, the aggregates don’t work the way Friedman said they would. And so the specific policy Friedman recommends, Volcker tries it for a year or so, doesn’t work super well. But what does work is letting interest rates go high, go above inflation, to a point where both the general citizenry and the financial markets believe like, oh, they’re actually serious about inflation. And because we’ve had a decade of inflation with all these presidents saying, Ford, “We’re going to whip inflation now,” that monetary policy has lost credibility. This is why people focus so much on credibility today, because once it’s lost, it’s really hard to get it back. And one way Volcker gets it back is interest rates over 20%. Unemployment very high, as high as 25% in construction sectors. And as this is happening, Milton Friedman is whispering in Reagan’s ear, “This is the right thing. Stay the course. This is going to work.” Now, interestingly, he hates Volcker or Volcker hates him, and Friedman will never give Volcker credit for this policy, but he will give Reagan credit for this policy. But he owes credit himself for keeping Reagan from wobbling on this policy and just pushing it through. And he also tells Reagan, very pragmatically, “You better do this now. You’ve got a four-year term. Do this in the first two years of your term. Things will have turned around by 1984 when you run for reelection and you’ll benefit from it.” And that’s absolutely what happens.
Cryptocurrency
Lex Fridman
If we could take a small tangent, a question I have to ask about, since we mentioned Bretton Woods and maybe the gold standard, maybe just have a general discussion about this whole space of ideas, there’s a lot of people today that care about cryptocurrency. What do you think that Milton Friedman would say about cryptocurrency and what role crypto might play in the economy, whether he would be for this idea against this idea, and if we could look at it for today, and also just 10, 100 years from now?
If we could take a small tangent, a question I have to ask about, since we mentioned Bretton Woods and maybe the gold standard, maybe just have a general discussion about this whole space of ideas, there’s a lot of people today that care about cryptocurrency. What do you think that Milton Friedman would say about cryptocurrency and what role crypto might play in the economy, whether he would be for this idea against this idea, and if we could look at it for today, and also just 10, 100 years from now?
Jennifer Burns
There’s a clip, I think it’s in 1992, where people say, “Oh, Friedman predicted cryptocurrencies,” because he’s talking about how payments will eventually be electronic. So in some ways definitely, as he was looking at the computer and money, he knew these would come together in some way. I think he probably would see a use case for crypto. He definitely would not buy the stronger forms, I think of crypto ideology in which we could be heading towards a future in which there’s many different currencies that compete or that are distributed or there’s a stateless currency. And he addresses this very, very clearly because Hayek’s Denationalization of Money, it’s a paper in the late ’70s. Hayek argues for this kind of competing currency model or regime. And so he’s responding to that. He’s responding to people writing about free banking, and he basically says, “Look, even if you developed a variety of competing currencies, eventually society would converge on one.”
There’s a clip, I think it’s in 1992, where people say, “Oh, Friedman predicted cryptocurrencies,” because he’s talking about how payments will eventually be electronic. So in some ways definitely, as he was looking at the computer and money, he knew these would come together in some way. I think he probably would see a use case for crypto. He definitely would not buy the stronger forms, I think of crypto ideology in which we could be heading towards a future in which there’s many different currencies that compete or that are distributed or there’s a stateless currency. And he addresses this very, very clearly because Hayek’s Denationalization of Money, it’s a paper in the late ’70s. Hayek argues for this kind of competing currency model or regime. And so he’s responding to that. He’s responding to people writing about free banking, and he basically says, “Look, even if you developed a variety of competing currencies, eventually society would converge on one.”
And that’s because people just want one currency that they know. They don’t want a bunch of different options. Even in places where there have been options to do that, they’ve been used very minimally. And then he says, “Secondly, the state always steps in.” He says, “Technically, theoretically, it doesn’t have to. I could draw you a model. I could tell you about how it could work without the state. But in actual reality, all human societies, through time and space, the state eventually becomes involved in the provision of money because it has so many knock-on effects to so many people.” So sure, I think he would, again, find a use case for crypto, think it’s interesting, but I don’t think he would see it as this is going to displace state money and we’re going to have a variety of distributed currencies.
The other thing he really stresses is that a change in a monetary system, it only happens amid great, great crisis. So again, you see in countries where the state is not controlling the money well, that’s when people are more turning to crypto. But he says, because money is so fundamental, there is going to be so much political pressure on any country that gets the currency profoundly wrong that the government will fall and another one will replace it. So if you look at episodes of hyperinflation, they don’t go on very long because they’re so upsetting to people.
Lex Fridman
If we can go back in time, we’ve talked about it a bunch, but it’s still a fascinating time, the Great Depression. University of Chicago, there’s these folks like Jacob Viner, Frank Knight, Henry Simons, all of these influenced the thinking of Milton Friedman. There’s this Room Seven situation at the University of Chicago. Just going back there, even just speaking almost philosophically, what does it take to explore ideas together, deliberate, argue in that space, and maybe there might be interesting stories about that time. It would just be interesting to understand how somebody like Milton Friedman forms. The seed is planted and the flower blooms.
If we can go back in time, we’ve talked about it a bunch, but it’s still a fascinating time, the Great Depression. University of Chicago, there’s these folks like Jacob Viner, Frank Knight, Henry Simons, all of these influenced the thinking of Milton Friedman. There’s this Room Seven situation at the University of Chicago. Just going back there, even just speaking almost philosophically, what does it take to explore ideas together, deliberate, argue in that space, and maybe there might be interesting stories about that time. It would just be interesting to understand how somebody like Milton Friedman forms. The seed is planted and the flower blooms.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. Yeah. So he gets to University of Chicago, he makes fast friends, and in his third and fourth year, they become what I call them, the Room Seven gang. So Room Seven is they find an old store room in the basement, they take it over, and that’s where they have their jam sessions. And what made this world come together was Frank Knight. There was a charismatic leader and there were a bunch of acolytes who clustered around him. That I think was a key piece of the ingredient. And then there was a sense that they were onto something that the rest of the economics field had forgotten or was rejecting. So there was that sense of mission. So that seems to have been, there was a formal education piece, and then there was a parallel education piece rooted in admiration for a thinker, a shared admiration. And then what that led Friedman to do, what I found, syllabi that he had from non-economics courses, lists of books.
Yeah. Yeah. So he gets to University of Chicago, he makes fast friends, and in his third and fourth year, they become what I call them, the Room Seven gang. So Room Seven is they find an old store room in the basement, they take it over, and that’s where they have their jam sessions. And what made this world come together was Frank Knight. There was a charismatic leader and there were a bunch of acolytes who clustered around him. That I think was a key piece of the ingredient. And then there was a sense that they were onto something that the rest of the economics field had forgotten or was rejecting. So there was that sense of mission. So that seems to have been, there was a formal education piece, and then there was a parallel education piece rooted in admiration for a thinker, a shared admiration. And then what that led Friedman to do, what I found, syllabi that he had from non-economics courses, lists of books.
And he’d written the prices of different ones he wanted to read. So he had John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, like 50 cents written in the margin. So he began to educate himself. He gave himself a parallel curriculum alongside this very formal economics curriculum. He started reading the traditions of political liberalism and then talking them through with friends and then developing a shared sense of mission. And the incredible thing is, of those friends in the group, they scattered for like 10 years, and then they all came back together. George Stigler, his great friend, was hired at Chicago. Aaron Director, who was his wife’s brother, was at Chicago. So many of these people continued. He became Frank Knight’s colleague. So that was the base. That was what really grew him, that really profound peer group. Now, the other piece I talk about a lot is Friedman was a collaborator, an open-minded collaborator, and he had incredible connections with economists who were women.
And he basically found first in the figure of Anna Schwartz, later in the figure of this group of women who were his wife’s friends, this untapped pool of talent. And so he immersed himself in this whole other world of consumption economics and that resulted in his more technical work on a theory of the consumption function, which is the theory of permanent income. So for Friedman, intellectual work and intellectual production was always done in this very social context, in a context that blended friendship and intellectual partnership. And he only had a handful of friends who were not also economists interested in the same questions he was. So he just lived and breathed ideas all day long.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to the jam sessions? What do we know about the jam sessions? What are we talking about here? You’re sitting in a room, are they analyzing? Are they reading papers and discussing papers> or are they arguing more over beers kind of situation?
Can you speak to the jam sessions? What do we know about the jam sessions? What are we talking about here? You’re sitting in a room, are they analyzing? Are they reading papers and discussing papers> or are they arguing more over beers kind of situation?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, more arguing over beers. And in this case, there’s several people who say it was all about Frank Knight. What did he say? What did he mean when he said it? Is he right? And so Knight, he would say one thing and then say another. If you read him, it’s very hard to follow what he’s actually saying because he’s full of qualifications and ironies. It blends. And so he would throw out these pieces and then the students would clutch at them, and then they would come back together and try to assemble this worldview. And then Frank Knight fell into this terrible depression, and to cheer him up, they planned a big party and they went back through all of his previous writings and they assembled them into a book that was published. This is the Ethics of Competition, and you can read the introduction written in part by Milton Friedman.
Yeah, more arguing over beers. And in this case, there’s several people who say it was all about Frank Knight. What did he say? What did he mean when he said it? Is he right? And so Knight, he would say one thing and then say another. If you read him, it’s very hard to follow what he’s actually saying because he’s full of qualifications and ironies. It blends. And so he would throw out these pieces and then the students would clutch at them, and then they would come back together and try to assemble this worldview. And then Frank Knight fell into this terrible depression, and to cheer him up, they planned a big party and they went back through all of his previous writings and they assembled them into a book that was published. This is the Ethics of Competition, and you can read the introduction written in part by Milton Friedman.
So not only were they talking about Knight and what he said, but then they started pouring over his work. One of them described it as a general equilibrium system where you had to know all the parts and then all of a sudden it all fit together in a whole. So if we step back, what they were doing was getting inside the mind of a great thinker and understanding the ways it all fit together and then testing their ideas against Knight’s. And what’s fascinating is, one of the first papers that Friedman publishes in statistics is a rebuttal of Frank Knight. He publishes a rebuttal of Frank Knight’s ideas about risk and uncertainty. And Frank Knight, he took a black swan argument. He said, “Risk, you can calculate. Uncertainty, you can’t existentially philosophically. You can’t get your hands around it. It is the Black Swan.”
And Friedman publishes this statistical paper and he says, “I can put uncertainty on a graph.” And so there’s that Freudian killing of the father element when he comes back and he will in some ways turn his back on Knight’s approach and Knight’s pessimism even while it’s a foundation of his thinking.
Lex Fridman
Fascinating. Is there something you could say about the thinking process that Milton Friedman followed, how he developed his ideas? You mentioned there’s a strong collaborative component, but there’s another story I saw about that I think his son recalled about the argument number system that you mentioned, which, by the way, if you can explain that as a tangent of a tangent, that’s really awesome. I think it’s number one if the other person is right.
Fascinating. Is there something you could say about the thinking process that Milton Friedman followed, how he developed his ideas? You mentioned there’s a strong collaborative component, but there’s another story I saw about that I think his son recalled about the argument number system that you mentioned, which, by the way, if you can explain that as a tangent of a tangent, that’s really awesome. I think it’s number one if the other person is right.
Jennifer Burns
Number two means you were right and I was wrong. And the number system evolved in some ways to be quick and efficient, but in other ways they also were really clear about it. So something like there’s three reasons behind it. First is, if you use a number, it reminds the listener that it’s really hard to say the words, “I was wrong.” So you’re calling on their sympathy by using the number, reminding them that you’re doing a hard thing. And then it’s also reminding them that you’re in this family with this code, and so you’re signaling your membership and your closeness and your love, really. It’s supposed to be an easy way to disagree without breaking the relationship.
Number two means you were right and I was wrong. And the number system evolved in some ways to be quick and efficient, but in other ways they also were really clear about it. So something like there’s three reasons behind it. First is, if you use a number, it reminds the listener that it’s really hard to say the words, “I was wrong.” So you’re calling on their sympathy by using the number, reminding them that you’re doing a hard thing. And then it’s also reminding them that you’re in this family with this code, and so you’re signaling your membership and your closeness and your love, really. It’s supposed to be an easy way to disagree without breaking the relationship.
Lex Fridman
So admitting you’re wrong now comes with this warm fuzzy feeling?
So admitting you’re wrong now comes with this warm fuzzy feeling?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
And, really, I mean, that’s so powerful. I think so much of the friction of human interaction could be boiled down to just not being able to admit they are wrong efficiently and quickly and regularly and just often. And to be able to do that, that’s really powerful.
And, really, I mean, that’s so powerful. I think so much of the friction of human interaction could be boiled down to just not being able to admit they are wrong efficiently and quickly and regularly and just often. And to be able to do that, that’s really powerful.
Jennifer Burns
I think it is a really neat aspect of their family life, for sure.
I think it is a really neat aspect of their family life, for sure.
Lex Fridman
That’s a fun story, but can we just generalize to how he engaged in collaboration, how he developed his ideas? Is there a thinking process?
That’s a fun story, but can we just generalize to how he engaged in collaboration, how he developed his ideas? Is there a thinking process?
Jennifer Burns
So he taught at the University of Chicago, and he tended to teach for six months and then have six months off. And he spent the summers in New Hampshire or Vermont, right near that border. They had two different houses. And that to him was the deep thinking time. And so when he’s at Chicago, he’s teaching, he’s arguing. Some people love his teaching style, very much in charge, very much keeping students on their toes, confrontational. Others found it too much, overwhelming, shut them down intellectually and they couldn’t cope with it. And so I think it was go time when he was teaching. In that case, that was a lot of social time interacting, talking other professors, going out and giving papers, arguing with the people at Yale or Harvard. Then he would go and do these very deep dives over the summer.
So he taught at the University of Chicago, and he tended to teach for six months and then have six months off. And he spent the summers in New Hampshire or Vermont, right near that border. They had two different houses. And that to him was the deep thinking time. And so when he’s at Chicago, he’s teaching, he’s arguing. Some people love his teaching style, very much in charge, very much keeping students on their toes, confrontational. Others found it too much, overwhelming, shut them down intellectually and they couldn’t cope with it. And so I think it was go time when he was teaching. In that case, that was a lot of social time interacting, talking other professors, going out and giving papers, arguing with the people at Yale or Harvard. Then he would go and do these very deep dives over the summer.
He would also regularly do these trips to New York to see Anna Schwartz, his 12-year collaborator. Phone calls were really expensive. They did have quite an extensive correspondence, but then they would do these meetings. So he would basically come in at the beginning of the summer going to Rahway, stop in New York, see Schwartz, and then again on the way back to Chicago. So he’d have these deep check-ins at that point. The other thing that happened is people would come visit him in New Hampshire. He had his studio separate from the house, he would go and he would work, and then at night his friends would come. His friends were all economists. There’s a whole cluster of economists. They all clustered within driving distance of the Dartmouth Library so that they could get their hands on books. And so they would come over and then they would argue and talk into the night. So I think he did need that deep focus time, but he also lived a very engaged, very embedded social life.
Lex Fridman
A part of which was this marriage. Is there something you could say about love, about marriage, about relationship that made the whole thing work, it was vibrant, and they wrote a biography together?
A part of which was this marriage. Is there something you could say about love, about marriage, about relationship that made the whole thing work, it was vibrant, and they wrote a biography together?
Jennifer Burns
They did. I mean, they were very complimentary. They were the yin and the yang. She was very introverted, somewhat suspicious of others, skeptical, and he was extremely extroverted, optimistic, high energy. And they also were at a time when it was really clear. For broader society, these are the roles of a man, these are the roles of a woman. And they pretty much adopted those. Now, Rose Friedman did some very important economic work. She’s part of the early stages of the theory of the consumption function. She didn’t complete her degree because she really knew if she wanted to be married and have children in the world she lived in, there wasn’t a real pathway to also being an economist. I do think that a lot of that, although it feels very gendered, he’s the man out in the world and she’s in private, it’s interesting because her brother, Aaron Director, was the same way.
They did. I mean, they were very complimentary. They were the yin and the yang. She was very introverted, somewhat suspicious of others, skeptical, and he was extremely extroverted, optimistic, high energy. And they also were at a time when it was really clear. For broader society, these are the roles of a man, these are the roles of a woman. And they pretty much adopted those. Now, Rose Friedman did some very important economic work. She’s part of the early stages of the theory of the consumption function. She didn’t complete her degree because she really knew if she wanted to be married and have children in the world she lived in, there wasn’t a real pathway to also being an economist. I do think that a lot of that, although it feels very gendered, he’s the man out in the world and she’s in private, it’s interesting because her brother, Aaron Director, was the same way.
He was a very private man, very shy, very introverted, and he exerted this quiet intellectual influence on all of his friends. So I think that was just a family trait of being more quiet, preferring to be behind the scenes. It wouldn’t have worked any other way because Friedman was so out there, so extroverted. And there’s a bit of a sad thing she said, she said, “When I married Milton, I lost half of my conversations. When David came along, I lost the other half.” So this is a household that was just dominated by male voices in which she didn’t have a lot of room. What was tricky for me in my research is she didn’t leave much of a trace. She put together Milton Friedman’s archive and she took herself out of it.
I really had trouble finding her actual voice in the historical documents, and she didn’t want to leave that behind, so this absolute essential piece of his success. Because she’s the one who pushed him to do the Newsweek column to do Free To Choose. And she really wrote Capitalism and Freedom. She took all his random notes and she put them together into a book. And that became this testimony of his ideas. But she shared many of his ideas and when I think of Friedman, if you take away Anna Schwartz, if you take away Rose Friedman, if you take away the other woman who collaborated with him, you have a much thinner resume than the one he actually has.
Ayn Rand
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s always sad, and it always makes me wonder about the private, secret conversations between partners because they might not show up in the record, but they probably influence the person more than almost anything else, those quiet little conversations. If we can switch our path to another great mind of the 20th century, Ayn Rand, we talked about some of the similarities here, about them being fighters for freedom and fighters for capitalism. What is Ayn Rand’s philosophy? If you can give a big 10 summary of objectivism?
Yeah, it’s always sad, and it always makes me wonder about the private, secret conversations between partners because they might not show up in the record, but they probably influence the person more than almost anything else, those quiet little conversations. If we can switch our path to another great mind of the 20th century, Ayn Rand, we talked about some of the similarities here, about them being fighters for freedom and fighters for capitalism. What is Ayn Rand’s philosophy? If you can give a big 10 summary of objectivism?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, so she called it objectivism. She used to do this thing, “I can stand on one foot and say it.” It goes something like, “Epistemology, reason, ethics, selfishness, politics, capitalism.” That was how she summarized it. So what she did, there’s a couple of things she did with objectivism. First of all, she says the key defining element of humanity is rationalism, the rational faculty. That’s what defines what humanity is. Therefore, there is an objective reality that we can access a know with our reason. That’s the objective epistemology. And the one social and economic system that lets rationality flower and is based upon rationality is capitalism. And then rationality only works in her view as an individual capacity and that rationality teaches that what you should do is pursue your interests. And so she ends up calling that selfishness.
Yeah, so she called it objectivism. She used to do this thing, “I can stand on one foot and say it.” It goes something like, “Epistemology, reason, ethics, selfishness, politics, capitalism.” That was how she summarized it. So what she did, there’s a couple of things she did with objectivism. First of all, she says the key defining element of humanity is rationalism, the rational faculty. That’s what defines what humanity is. Therefore, there is an objective reality that we can access a know with our reason. That’s the objective epistemology. And the one social and economic system that lets rationality flower and is based upon rationality is capitalism. And then rationality only works in her view as an individual capacity and that rationality teaches that what you should do is pursue your interests. And so she ends up calling that selfishness.
Now, it’s tricky because selfishness has so many strong and negative connotations, and she meant I think something closer to self-actualization, because she really tried to create this idea and express the idea that to be truly selfish did not mean trampling on others. It meant just being motivated by your own internal measures and metrics. And so in her fiction, she tries to show this by showing the false selfishness of some of Peter Keating, who’s an architect who steps over everybody to advance his career. And she says, “That’s not true selfishness because true selfishness would recognize it’s false to take others’ work and pass it off as your own.”
Now, the other big piece of objectivism is a very approach that’s really inspired and related to Friedrich Nietzsche’s idea of revaluing values or a genealogy of morals. And so she says, ” What’s happened here is Western culture has converged on this idea of altruism as good. Being selfless and altruistic is good. And this has led us to communism and has led us to devalue the individual in favor of the collective. So what we need is a new moral code which elevates selfishness, which elevates the individual, and which takes all the things that we have been told are bad and actually says their values.” This is what she’s trying to do with objectivism. I mean, it is about as ambitious of an intellectual project as there can be, and that’s what really draws people in.
Yet at the same time, she’s flying in the face of the way human morals and ethics and societies have evolved, and she’s not able to single-handedly recreate them the way she wants them to be.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, she’s not doing herself any favors by taking on the words and trying to rebrand them completely writing the virtue of selfishness. It’s like, can we just call it a self-actualization?
Yeah, I mean, she’s not doing herself any favors by taking on the words and trying to rebrand them completely writing the virtue of selfishness. It’s like, can we just call it a self-actualization?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
There’s a negative connotation to selfishness and a positive connotation to altruism. So sometimes it seems it takes on the hardest possible form of argument.
There’s a negative connotation to selfishness and a positive connotation to altruism. So sometimes it seems it takes on the hardest possible form of argument.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I mean, she had a student who ended up being very close to her, Nathaniel Brandon, and he was the reverend advisor, and he said, “Can you please not use selfishness? Just come up with another word.” But part of her liked it. Part of her wanted to provoke and unsettle. She didn’t want to give that up.
Yeah, I mean, she had a student who ended up being very close to her, Nathaniel Brandon, and he was the reverend advisor, and he said, “Can you please not use selfishness? Just come up with another word.” But part of her liked it. Part of her wanted to provoke and unsettle. She didn’t want to give that up.
Lex Fridman
I mean, people should listen to her public talks. Her whole aura, way of being is provocative, and she’s a real powerhouse of an intellectual. So she loves the challenge and just listening to her in itself is just inspiring. You could see the individualism radiate from her.
I mean, people should listen to her public talks. Her whole aura, way of being is provocative, and she’s a real powerhouse of an intellectual. So she loves the challenge and just listening to her in itself is just inspiring. You could see the individualism radiate from her.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I mean, that was one of the things I found in researching and writing about her. She’s an incredibly unusual human being. That was her strength because she’s so unusual, but it was also her downfall because she looked to herself as a model or to get insight about humanity, and she never quite processed how different she was from other people.
Yeah, I mean, that was one of the things I found in researching and writing about her. She’s an incredibly unusual human being. That was her strength because she’s so unusual, but it was also her downfall because she looked to herself as a model or to get insight about humanity, and she never quite processed how different she was from other people.
Lex Fridman
So just because we talked about Milton Friedman so much, can we just return to, what do you, given everything we’ve said, is the interesting difference about Ayn Rand, her ideas related to Milton Friedman?
So just because we talked about Milton Friedman so much, can we just return to, what do you, given everything we’ve said, is the interesting difference about Ayn Rand, her ideas related to Milton Friedman?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I mean, broadly we could put Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand in some category together, but she has this focus on ethics and rationality and this desire to be revolutionary that’s much stronger than Friedman. Friedman wanted to overthrow the economic consensus. He didn’t want to overturn the moral basis of Western society. Also, she does something. So in one of Frank Knight’s essays, he talks about the ethics of competition, and he says, “You basically cannot build an ethics out of competition because it would be monstrous to do so because it would say the winner of this competition is ethically right, and that would open the door to might makes right.” And this is what Friedman struggles with. And he says, “I can’t take capitalist outcomes as ethical unto themselves. I can’t do it. It doesn’t feel right.” And there’s this line where Frank Knight says, “No one would ever do this.” And I was like, “Oh, Frank Knight, you haven’t read Ayn Rand yet.”
Yeah, I mean, broadly we could put Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand in some category together, but she has this focus on ethics and rationality and this desire to be revolutionary that’s much stronger than Friedman. Friedman wanted to overthrow the economic consensus. He didn’t want to overturn the moral basis of Western society. Also, she does something. So in one of Frank Knight’s essays, he talks about the ethics of competition, and he says, “You basically cannot build an ethics out of competition because it would be monstrous to do so because it would say the winner of this competition is ethically right, and that would open the door to might makes right.” And this is what Friedman struggles with. And he says, “I can’t take capitalist outcomes as ethical unto themselves. I can’t do it. It doesn’t feel right.” And there’s this line where Frank Knight says, “No one would ever do this.” And I was like, “Oh, Frank Knight, you haven’t read Ayn Rand yet.”
Lex Fridman
Hold me beer.
Hold me beer.
Jennifer Burns
You’re a little too early. Because that’s what she does, she takes the outcomes of capitalism and of market competition and says, “These have ethical meaning, and this is where ethical meaning inheres, and it is ethical to try to succeed and to succeed in a capitalist society.” Now, what she’s able to do is create a fictional world in which people succeed in her fictional capitalist world through ethical behavior. And so she doesn’t really have to wrestle with a capitalist world in which people succeed through fraud and corruption and all the other things that might go into someone’s success. She creates the best possible take on success under capitalism, and then she holds that up as an ideal. And I think what’s important is that so few people have done that, and she comes at a time when everybody is emphasizing a downsize of capitalism, and she says, “There’s another way to look at it. Here are the good sides of capitalism.”
You’re a little too early. Because that’s what she does, she takes the outcomes of capitalism and of market competition and says, “These have ethical meaning, and this is where ethical meaning inheres, and it is ethical to try to succeed and to succeed in a capitalist society.” Now, what she’s able to do is create a fictional world in which people succeed in her fictional capitalist world through ethical behavior. And so she doesn’t really have to wrestle with a capitalist world in which people succeed through fraud and corruption and all the other things that might go into someone’s success. She creates the best possible take on success under capitalism, and then she holds that up as an ideal. And I think what’s important is that so few people have done that, and she comes at a time when everybody is emphasizing a downsize of capitalism, and she says, “There’s another way to look at it. Here are the good sides of capitalism.”
Lex Fridman
And like you said, she was operating, which I really loved the phrasing of that, in the Mythic Register.
And like you said, she was operating, which I really loved the phrasing of that, in the Mythic Register.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So she was constructing these characters, these capitalists that are the highest form, these great heroic figures, almost romanticizing them.
So she was constructing these characters, these capitalists that are the highest form, these great heroic figures, almost romanticizing them.
The Fountainhead
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned We The Living is one of the books that you like of hers the most, but can we stay in the Mythic Register with the Fountainhead and Atlas Rugged? What are some memorable, inspiring moments, insightful moments from those books that may be scenes or ideas that you take away from them that are important for people to understand?
You mentioned We The Living is one of the books that you like of hers the most, but can we stay in the Mythic Register with the Fountainhead and Atlas Rugged? What are some memorable, inspiring moments, insightful moments from those books that may be scenes or ideas that you take away from them that are important for people to understand?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, so the Fountainhead is this story of a struggling architect, Howard Rourke, and she follows his life and his career. And the message is, really, it’s a version of to thine own self be true. And Rourke’s designs are to avant garde, nobody appreciates him and he just keeps doing what he wants to do and is just focused on his own visions, his own genius. I think that’s been really inspiring to creators of all types. I think it’s fairly unrealistic as a portrait of human achievement, but it’s an aspirational idea. I mean, one phrase that comes to mind is, there’s a character, I forget which one, who is in some adversarial relationship with Howard Rourke and says something to him like, “Well, Mr. Rourke, what do you think of me?” And Rourke says, “I don’t think of you.”
Yeah, so the Fountainhead is this story of a struggling architect, Howard Rourke, and she follows his life and his career. And the message is, really, it’s a version of to thine own self be true. And Rourke’s designs are to avant garde, nobody appreciates him and he just keeps doing what he wants to do and is just focused on his own visions, his own genius. I think that’s been really inspiring to creators of all types. I think it’s fairly unrealistic as a portrait of human achievement, but it’s an aspirational idea. I mean, one phrase that comes to mind is, there’s a character, I forget which one, who is in some adversarial relationship with Howard Rourke and says something to him like, “Well, Mr. Rourke, what do you think of me?” And Rourke says, “I don’t think of you.”
And that to Rand was the ideal. You’re not thinking of other people. You’re an island unto yourself. You’re focused on your own goals, your own capacities, and you’re not doing it to impress other people or to be better than other people or to dominate other people. You’re doing it because expressing your inner soul in a way. So that has been very captivating to so many, and the Fountainhead is one of those books we talked about that causes, people read it and they make changes in their life or they feel called to their higher self.
Lex Fridman
And I think there’s also the scene where Rourke with the Dean of Architecture at the school that’s speaking to what you’re saying, I think to me is inspiring. So this is the Dean of Architecture that expels Rourke, and then brings him into a meeting thinking Rourke will plead for a second chance. And the Dean says that, “Rourke’s work is contrary to every principle we have tried to teach you, contrary to all established precedents and traditions of art. Do you mean to tell me that you’re thinking seriously of building that way when and if you are an architect?” And then in a gangster-like way, Rourke says, “Yes.” And then Dean asks, “My dear fellow, who will let you?” And Rourke replies, “That’s not the point. The point is, who will stop me?”
And I think there’s also the scene where Rourke with the Dean of Architecture at the school that’s speaking to what you’re saying, I think to me is inspiring. So this is the Dean of Architecture that expels Rourke, and then brings him into a meeting thinking Rourke will plead for a second chance. And the Dean says that, “Rourke’s work is contrary to every principle we have tried to teach you, contrary to all established precedents and traditions of art. Do you mean to tell me that you’re thinking seriously of building that way when and if you are an architect?” And then in a gangster-like way, Rourke says, “Yes.” And then Dean asks, “My dear fellow, who will let you?” And Rourke replies, “That’s not the point. The point is, who will stop me?”
Jennifer Burns
Yes. I mean, Rand’s coming from communist Russia, but it has a bit of the don’t mess with Texas flavor, I might say that really resonates with this idea of anyone who’s felt like they’re fighting the powers that be. Yeah, it’s interesting. I thought you might be going to the quote where he says something like, “I inherit no tradition. I stand at the beginning of one.” And I really think Rand’s thinking about herself when she says that, that she inherits nothing. She stands at the start. But The Fountainhead comes out in the middle of World War Two, and Rand is an unknown writer. This is a strange book. It’s a classic story. It’s turned down by 12 publishers before one takes a chance on it. And Rand really loved this story. The editor who read it said, “This book is great”.” And his boss said no. And he said, “If you don’t take this book, I’m quitting.” And so she idolized him for doing that.
Yes. I mean, Rand’s coming from communist Russia, but it has a bit of the don’t mess with Texas flavor, I might say that really resonates with this idea of anyone who’s felt like they’re fighting the powers that be. Yeah, it’s interesting. I thought you might be going to the quote where he says something like, “I inherit no tradition. I stand at the beginning of one.” And I really think Rand’s thinking about herself when she says that, that she inherits nothing. She stands at the start. But The Fountainhead comes out in the middle of World War Two, and Rand is an unknown writer. This is a strange book. It’s a classic story. It’s turned down by 12 publishers before one takes a chance on it. And Rand really loved this story. The editor who read it said, “This book is great”.” And his boss said no. And he said, “If you don’t take this book, I’m quitting.” And so she idolized him for doing that.
So they print it and it becomes a bestseller just through word of mouth. So it’s not advertised. It gets one good book review, but people tell each other how much they like this book. And it keeps printing and selling out printings. It’s made into a movie. And so it lands in this time when Americans are engaged in this great collective endeavor of World War Two. They’re making all kinds of sacrifices for the collective and I think, paradoxically, as they do that, they’re drawn to this vision of someone who doesn’t have to compromise at all, who is leading their life exactly as they want to. Meanwhile, they might be sleeping on an ocean liner because they’ve been drafted to fight in this war, and they’re reading The Fountainhead and they’re feeling better about themselves.
And so it’s also really interesting. The Fountainhead is hugely popular in India, which is fascinating, and talk to people about this and they basically say, “This book comes like a breath of fresh air into a very traditional and conformist culture. And people just latch onto it and they love it, and it gives them that feeling of freedom and possibility that they’re hoping for.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, it really is a book, Atlas Shrugged can be a bit of that too, but it’s more of the philosophy objectivism and the details and the nuance of that seeps into Atlas Shrugged. The Fountainhead is very much like a thing that makes you change the path of your life. I mean, that’s beautiful to see that books can have that power.
Yeah, I mean, it really is a book, Atlas Shrugged can be a bit of that too, but it’s more of the philosophy objectivism and the details and the nuance of that seeps into Atlas Shrugged. The Fountainhead is very much like a thing that makes you change the path of your life. I mean, that’s beautiful to see that books can have that power.
Jennifer Burns
And Rand knew that she was doing that and she knew what she was doing. This wasn’t an accident. And people say, “Oh, she’s a bad writer. Oh, her characters are so heavy-handed.” She started as a screenwriter. She started as someone who analyzed films for movie studios. She knew exactly how to manipulate plot and character and drama. And she also knew that she was writing, people say, “Oh, Rand is for adolescence, adolescent teenagers love Rand,” and that’s who she was writing for. And she said, “I’m writing for people as they start out on their life and they’re thinking about who they want to be.” So she’s not writing for the weary middle aged. She’s writing for the young who are looking for inspiration.
And Rand knew that she was doing that and she knew what she was doing. This wasn’t an accident. And people say, “Oh, she’s a bad writer. Oh, her characters are so heavy-handed.” She started as a screenwriter. She started as someone who analyzed films for movie studios. She knew exactly how to manipulate plot and character and drama. And she also knew that she was writing, people say, “Oh, Rand is for adolescence, adolescent teenagers love Rand,” and that’s who she was writing for. And she said, “I’m writing for people as they start out on their life and they’re thinking about who they want to be.” So she’s not writing for the weary middle aged. She’s writing for the young who are looking for inspiration.
Lex Fridman
People say that to me sometimes about certain books like Rand, but also about The Alchemist. I know a lot of people for whom The Alchemist, and they’re adults and they’re brilliant people, The Alchemist changed their life. And the same can be said about The Fountainhead.
People say that to me sometimes about certain books like Rand, but also about The Alchemist. I know a lot of people for whom The Alchemist, and they’re adults and they’re brilliant people, The Alchemist changed their life. And the same can be said about The Fountainhead.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And I sometimes get criticized for using words that are too simple. I think simple words can have power, and the cliche thing sometimes needs to be said. And sometimes it effectively needs to be said in an over the top way in the Mythic Register, because that’s the thing that resonates with us. We are heroes of our own story and we need to hear that message sometimes to take the bold step, to take the risk, to take the leap.
And I sometimes get criticized for using words that are too simple. I think simple words can have power, and the cliche thing sometimes needs to be said. And sometimes it effectively needs to be said in an over the top way in the Mythic Register, because that’s the thing that resonates with us. We are heroes of our own story and we need to hear that message sometimes to take the bold step, to take the risk, to take the leap.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, and I mean the other thing, she knew she was doing propaganda in a way. She was like, “I’m doing pro-capitalist propaganda.” She has a degree from the University of Leningrad. She was raised up in Soviet Russia. She said, “We need to present the case for the other side in the same way.” And that’s what she did.
Yeah, and I mean the other thing, she knew she was doing propaganda in a way. She was like, “I’m doing pro-capitalist propaganda.” She has a degree from the University of Leningrad. She was raised up in Soviet Russia. She said, “We need to present the case for the other side in the same way.” And that’s what she did.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think she’s so divisive? People either love her or hate her.
Why do you think she’s so divisive? People either love her or hate her.
Jennifer Burns
I mean, I think it’s because of that purity that I’m willing to say, “You get what you deserve,” and that lack of charity. And part of that in her work is because she creates this fictional work where she can set everything up just so, and so you don’t have contingency or accident or bad luck. You don’t really have a lot of children. You don’t have handicapped people. You just have this idealized world. And I think it’s really infuriating for people who feel that’s so inaccurate. How can you be deriving a social theory and philosophy around this? And how can you be missing, what seems to many people, she’s missing the ethical instinct or the altruistic or charitable instinct? And so they just become enraged at that and they don’t want to see anyone go that far. And they’re outraged that someone went that far, that did the thing that Frank Knight said no one would do. It’s very unsettling.
I mean, I think it’s because of that purity that I’m willing to say, “You get what you deserve,” and that lack of charity. And part of that in her work is because she creates this fictional work where she can set everything up just so, and so you don’t have contingency or accident or bad luck. You don’t really have a lot of children. You don’t have handicapped people. You just have this idealized world. And I think it’s really infuriating for people who feel that’s so inaccurate. How can you be deriving a social theory and philosophy around this? And how can you be missing, what seems to many people, she’s missing the ethical instinct or the altruistic or charitable instinct? And so they just become enraged at that and they don’t want to see anyone go that far. And they’re outraged that someone went that far, that did the thing that Frank Knight said no one would do. It’s very unsettling.
Lex Fridman
Would you say that’s…
Would you say that’s…
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, it’s very unsettling.
Yeah, it’s very unsettling.
Lex Fridman
Would you say that’s her main blind spot, the main flaw of objectivism is just how black and white it paints the world? If not, what would you say are the flaws of objectivism?
Would you say that’s her main blind spot, the main flaw of objectivism is just how black and white it paints the world? If not, what would you say are the flaws of objectivism?
Jennifer Burns
The big flaw is that it’s justified through a fictional world. It’s not justified through reference to the real world. It’s not empirical in a way. It’s not… Rand herself would say this. She’s not writing about things how they are, but how they should be. That idealism just really undermines it as a mechanism to understand where we’re actually living.
The big flaw is that it’s justified through a fictional world. It’s not justified through reference to the real world. It’s not empirical in a way. It’s not… Rand herself would say this. She’s not writing about things how they are, but how they should be. That idealism just really undermines it as a mechanism to understand where we’re actually living.
Lex Fridman
That is a big contrast with Milton Friedman, who would focus on how things are versus how things should be.
That is a big contrast with Milton Friedman, who would focus on how things are versus how things should be.
Jennifer Burns
Then I think it’s the problem of elevating rationality or any other mode of insight or thinking. What happens in Rand’s life, I describe this in some detail in the book, is she essentially creates a cult of reason around her and people who are drawn into this cult… It’s called The Collective. It’s a group of young people in New York City who are drawn to her work. She’s already famous, but she’s writing Atlas Shrugged. She’s sharing drafts of Atlas Shrugged as she goes along. And one of the members of The Collective, to bring all of this together, is Alan Greenspan, later be head of the Federal Reserve. And he’s incredibly taken with her. He’s one of these people who says, “I was a narrow technical thinker. I never thought about ethics or politics or anything bigger until I met Ayn Rand. She really opened my mind.”
Then I think it’s the problem of elevating rationality or any other mode of insight or thinking. What happens in Rand’s life, I describe this in some detail in the book, is she essentially creates a cult of reason around her and people who are drawn into this cult… It’s called The Collective. It’s a group of young people in New York City who are drawn to her work. She’s already famous, but she’s writing Atlas Shrugged. She’s sharing drafts of Atlas Shrugged as she goes along. And one of the members of The Collective, to bring all of this together, is Alan Greenspan, later be head of the Federal Reserve. And he’s incredibly taken with her. He’s one of these people who says, “I was a narrow technical thinker. I never thought about ethics or politics or anything bigger until I met Ayn Rand. She really opened my mind.”
He’s part of this tight-knit group. In this tight-knit group, they think of themselves, “We are all individualists. We’re dedicated to individualism and capitalism. We’re different than everybody else.” Over time, they all come to share Ayn Rand’s views and opinions on everything, from music to art, to clothes. She gets a dining room table and a bunch of them get the same dining room table, and it becomes incredibly conformist, because they’ve all believed they’re acting rationally. And they believe that to act rationally is to agree with Ayn Rand and they believe there’s no other way to make decisions than rationality. To disagree with her is to be irrational. They don’t want to be irrational. People get really caught up in this very damaging cult-like circle around her.
Lex Fridman
Plus, for a cult of reason, they get awfully emotional when there’s any disagreement with Ayn Rand.
Plus, for a cult of reason, they get awfully emotional when there’s any disagreement with Ayn Rand.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s hilarious. It’s absurd. It’s also beautiful to watch this singular figure. We’ve talked about several singular figures, like Frank Wright, that shakes up the world with her ideas.
It’s hilarious. It’s absurd. It’s also beautiful to watch this singular figure. We’ve talked about several singular figures, like Frank Wright, that shakes up the world with her ideas.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Of course, it would form a cult. And, of course, that cult would be full of contradictions and hypocrisies.
Of course, it would form a cult. And, of course, that cult would be full of contradictions and hypocrisies.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, it’s amazing. Murray Rothbard is a famous anarchist, falls into the Ayn Rand cult. Then he disagrees and there’s some type of show trial where he’s told he’s wrong about everything. Then he has a little pseudo cult of his own, and two of his cult members switch over to Ayn Rand. Then one of them, to gesture their breaking of the relationship, mails him a dollar bill that’s been torn in half. This is high theatrics, right?
Yeah, it’s amazing. Murray Rothbard is a famous anarchist, falls into the Ayn Rand cult. Then he disagrees and there’s some type of show trial where he’s told he’s wrong about everything. Then he has a little pseudo cult of his own, and two of his cult members switch over to Ayn Rand. Then one of them, to gesture their breaking of the relationship, mails him a dollar bill that’s been torn in half. This is high theatrics, right?
Sex and power dynamics
Lex Fridman
Okay, sticking on the drama and the theatrics, who was Nathaniel Branden?
Okay, sticking on the drama and the theatrics, who was Nathaniel Branden?
Jennifer Burns
Oh yes.
Oh yes.
Lex Fridman
Can you take me through the arc of Ayn Rand’s relationship with Nathaniel Branden to their dramatic falling out in 1968?
Can you take me through the arc of Ayn Rand’s relationship with Nathaniel Branden to their dramatic falling out in 1968?
Jennifer Burns
Yes, after The Fountainhead, The Fountainhead is auctioned is sold to be a film. Ayn Rand moves to Hollywood where she’s going to help in the writing of the film. She wants a lot of creative control and she’s also still working in screenwriting and things like this. She gets a letter from… There’s a Canadian student who’s written to her several times, and then he writes again and he says, “I’m at UCLA.” And she’s like, “Young man, you’re so full of error. Why don’t you come visit me and I’ll straighten you out.” So he comes and they have this real meeting of the minds. They talk all night. He comes again, he brings his girlfriend, she loves him, and they start this very intense relationship of spending every weekend at her house, basically. Staying up all night, talking about ideas.
Yes, after The Fountainhead, The Fountainhead is auctioned is sold to be a film. Ayn Rand moves to Hollywood where she’s going to help in the writing of the film. She wants a lot of creative control and she’s also still working in screenwriting and things like this. She gets a letter from… There’s a Canadian student who’s written to her several times, and then he writes again and he says, “I’m at UCLA.” And she’s like, “Young man, you’re so full of error. Why don’t you come visit me and I’ll straighten you out.” So he comes and they have this real meeting of the minds. They talk all night. He comes again, he brings his girlfriend, she loves him, and they start this very intense relationship of spending every weekend at her house, basically. Staying up all night, talking about ideas.
He becomes completely converted to the objectivist worldview. Rand begins counseling him and his girlfriend about their relationship, very intense thing. Then eventually they graduate from college and they both enroll in a graduate program in Columbia and they leave. After they’ve left, Ayn Rand is just bereft. And within a few months she packs up her home and she moves to New York. “Here I am. I like New York better.” That becomes the seedbed of The Collective. The Brandens, they get married. They change their name to Branden. They’ve never publicly spoken on this, but many people have pointed out it has the word Rand in the name. It’s some type of acknowledgement of how important she is to them. Time goes on, and romantic feelings develop between Ayn Rand and Nathaniel Branden, who’s some 20 years her junior. They discuss them and they realize that rationality has led them to the conclusion that they should be lovers.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Jennifer Burns
Right. They rationally decided this, but because they’re rational they need the consent or at least to inform their partners.
Right. They rationally decided this, but because they’re rational they need the consent or at least to inform their partners.
Lex Fridman
They’re both married?
They’re both married?
Jennifer Burns
They’re both married. They call a meeting and they obtain the consent or maybe simply inform the others of the rationality of the choice. Then they say, “But this is only going to be an intellectual relationship, but we’d like a few hours alone each week and we don’t want to be deceptive, so we want you to know and approve of this.” The spouses bought into rationality, no one approve. One thing leads to another. It becomes a full romantic and sexual relationship. Although it’s open within these four people, it is not open more broadly. In all these meetings of The Collective, Alan Greenspan, all these other people coming up, drinking coffee all night, talking, talking. They all know that Nathaniel Branden is objectivist number one. They don’t know that there’s a romantic and sexual relationship happening. It’s kept a secret. Then when Atlas Shrugged comes out, it’s panned by reviewers.
They’re both married. They call a meeting and they obtain the consent or maybe simply inform the others of the rationality of the choice. Then they say, “But this is only going to be an intellectual relationship, but we’d like a few hours alone each week and we don’t want to be deceptive, so we want you to know and approve of this.” The spouses bought into rationality, no one approve. One thing leads to another. It becomes a full romantic and sexual relationship. Although it’s open within these four people, it is not open more broadly. In all these meetings of The Collective, Alan Greenspan, all these other people coming up, drinking coffee all night, talking, talking. They all know that Nathaniel Branden is objectivist number one. They don’t know that there’s a romantic and sexual relationship happening. It’s kept a secret. Then when Atlas Shrugged comes out, it’s panned by reviewers.
People absolutely hate this book. And Rand is not Howard Roark. She falls into a deep depression because her masterpiece has been rejected. Then the romantic relationship ends, but the close personal relationship continues. And then over time Branden, who’s still married to his wife, begins an affair with another young woman. At this point he has started the Nathaniel Branden Institute to teach objectivism. He’s making good money. He’s becoming quite famous.
Lex Fridman
She supported the institute?
She supported the institute?
Jennifer Burns
She supported it. And at first it was to help her in her depression. He said, “The world needs to recognize your genius. They missed Atlas Shrugged, but I’m going to teach them. I’ll bring the message.” And it’s very successful. It becomes its own business. It has a newsletter. It’s a whole world. That small cult around Ayn Rand expands to this whole social network, and it’s very much a piece with this burgeoning conservative movement. Objectivists are involved in criticizing the draft. There’s kind of a libertarian objectivist world going on. All of this is happening. In the meantime, Nathaniel Branden has found a new partner, but he doesn’t tell Ayn Rand this because he knows she’ll be upset. It goes on for years.
She supported it. And at first it was to help her in her depression. He said, “The world needs to recognize your genius. They missed Atlas Shrugged, but I’m going to teach them. I’ll bring the message.” And it’s very successful. It becomes its own business. It has a newsletter. It’s a whole world. That small cult around Ayn Rand expands to this whole social network, and it’s very much a piece with this burgeoning conservative movement. Objectivists are involved in criticizing the draft. There’s kind of a libertarian objectivist world going on. All of this is happening. In the meantime, Nathaniel Branden has found a new partner, but he doesn’t tell Ayn Rand this because he knows she’ll be upset. It goes on for years.
Ayn Rand knows something is going on, but she can’t quite figure it out. And finally, Barbara, Branden says to Nathaniel Branden, “You know, you have to tell her. This has just gone on too long.” She finds out and the whole thing blows up, and she exiles him and she breaks off contact with him. And nobody has ever told what happens. It’s called the [inaudible 02:58:23]. Objectivism breaks in two, because some people say, “How could Ayn Rand do anything wrong?” And other people say, ” What is this letter all about? And what did Nathaniel Branden do? I’m not just going to take her word for it. I need more information.” Then a bunch of people read all the accounts of this. A bunch of people are like, “Okay, they were having an affair.” And a bunch of other people are like, “No, that couldn’t possibly be happening.”
The whole thing breaks up. But what I argue in my book is actually this is to the benefit of Rand’s ideas, because Rand herself was so controlling over her ideas. And now that she steps back from a public role, objectivism flows into the student libertarian movement. Some objectivists become conservatives. It just spreads out more generally, and you don’t have to drink the Kool-Aid. You don’t have to take the official course. Nathaniel Branden goes on to be part of the self-esteem movement, Human Potential Movement, California and Ayn Rand lives another 10 years or so, but she doesn’t do major work after that.
Lex Fridman
Since we were talking about some of the all… Although rationalized some strange sexual partnerships that their engagement in, I have to ask about The Fountainhead and the, quote, unquote, “Rape scene.” In the Fountainhead. Was she intending to add that there to be controversial? How we’re supposed to read into it? Is it a glimpse into Ayn Rand’s sexuality? Maybe broadly we can say, “Well, what was her view on sexuality, on sex, on power dynamics in relationships?”
Since we were talking about some of the all… Although rationalized some strange sexual partnerships that their engagement in, I have to ask about The Fountainhead and the, quote, unquote, “Rape scene.” In the Fountainhead. Was she intending to add that there to be controversial? How we’re supposed to read into it? Is it a glimpse into Ayn Rand’s sexuality? Maybe broadly we can say, “Well, what was her view on sexuality, on sex, on power dynamics in relationships?”
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, there’s also an objectivist theory of sexuality in that probably the least convincing of all the parts of objectivism. And it goes something like, “Your sexual desires express your highest values.” And they are related in some ways to your rationality, right? Which is also related to your highest values. So for her that explained her attraction to Nathaniel Branden and Nathaniel Branden’s attraction to her was a function of their highest values. And, in fact, Branden imbibed this so deeply that the fact that he was later drawn sexually to a woman who was not particularly accomplished, but was beautiful, caused him deep anguish and guilt for being non-objectivist. This is the objectivist theory. Then the gender politics are just crazy. We have to back up and think, “Okay, who is Ayn Rand.” She’s born Alisa Rosenbaum in Russia. She is someone who stands out from the crowd from the beginning.
Yeah, there’s also an objectivist theory of sexuality in that probably the least convincing of all the parts of objectivism. And it goes something like, “Your sexual desires express your highest values.” And they are related in some ways to your rationality, right? Which is also related to your highest values. So for her that explained her attraction to Nathaniel Branden and Nathaniel Branden’s attraction to her was a function of their highest values. And, in fact, Branden imbibed this so deeply that the fact that he was later drawn sexually to a woman who was not particularly accomplished, but was beautiful, caused him deep anguish and guilt for being non-objectivist. This is the objectivist theory. Then the gender politics are just crazy. We have to back up and think, “Okay, who is Ayn Rand.” She’s born Alisa Rosenbaum in Russia. She is someone who stands out from the crowd from the beginning.
She never really fits in. She’s not conventionally beautiful by any stretch of the imagination. She struggles with her weight and she doesn’t consider herself to have a beautiful face. She’s very independent. She meets none of the metrics of traditional femininity at all. She finds love with a man who is very handsome but very passive. Yet she writes in all her fiction about strong manly heroes. There seems to be like a projection. The man she’s actually with is not a strong manly hero. The hero she writes about, she probably wouldn’t be able to be in the same room with them for more than one minute before they got in a raging argument, right? Then she develops this theory about women and men in that a woman should worship her man, and a woman finds her true expression in worshiping the man she’s with. Again, this is not at all how Ayn Rand lives her life.
This is like this. I would say compensatory theory for her lack of ability to conform to the gender norms of her day. She then articulates them in a very strong and almost distorted and exaggerated way to compensate for the fact that she doesn’t actually meet them, can’t actually enact them. The rape scene to some degree embodies that idea that to some degree that the woman should worship the man. I tend to read it more in terms of literary genre. Rand is a screenwriter, a consumer of movies, and that rape scene is paradigmatic for the romance genre. In other words, these are like pulpy romance novels. The hero rapes the heroine and then they fall in love. That’s just the trope of how it works.
It’s crazy when you read it, but if you were reading a bunch of novels in this genre, you would find this is very standard. But that is a huge part of this appeal at the time. There’s this feminist who hates Rand, Susan Brownmiller, and she wants to write an angry denunciation of the rape scene. So she goes to get The fountainhead and she’s wondering how is she ever going to find the scene in this 800 page book? It’s a library copy because she doesn’t want to buy it, and it just falls open to the rape scene because everybody’s gone and read it because it’s very racy and explicit for that time. I’m almost positive she also knew that like, “If I put in this kind of taboo-breaking sex scene, that’s also going to probably be why people tell their friends about it.” I think it’s a mess. I think all of the gender and sexuality stuff that she states is just a total mess.
Lex Fridman
I think it also reminds me of another guy related, Friedrich Nietzsche, who had very strong opinions on women and wrote about what women’s role in society should be in different power dynamics and relationships and all that kind of stuff when he himself really had trouble getting laid. You have to as to always maybe chuckle or take with a grain of salt the analysis of power dynamics in relationship from these figures which failed in many regards in their own private life. You mentioned feminists. Would you consider Ayn Rand a feminist?
I think it also reminds me of another guy related, Friedrich Nietzsche, who had very strong opinions on women and wrote about what women’s role in society should be in different power dynamics and relationships and all that kind of stuff when he himself really had trouble getting laid. You have to as to always maybe chuckle or take with a grain of salt the analysis of power dynamics in relationship from these figures which failed in many regards in their own private life. You mentioned feminists. Would you consider Ayn Rand a feminist?
Jennifer Burns
She’s almost an anti-feminist because she then goes on… Someone writes her a letter about like, “Should there be a female president?” Or something. This is the beginning of feminism. And she says, “No woman should ever be president because if she’s president, she wouldn’t be able to look up to any man because she would be so powerful, and therefore she would be corrupt and rotten in the soul and unfit to be a leader.” It just makes no sense.
She’s almost an anti-feminist because she then goes on… Someone writes her a letter about like, “Should there be a female president?” Or something. This is the beginning of feminism. And she says, “No woman should ever be president because if she’s president, she wouldn’t be able to look up to any man because she would be so powerful, and therefore she would be corrupt and rotten in the soul and unfit to be a leader.” It just makes no sense.
Lex Fridman
But that said, she’s a woman and she’s one of the most powerful intellects in the 20th century.
But that said, she’s a woman and she’s one of the most powerful intellects in the 20th century.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
The contradictions… Nietzsche’s full of contradictions of this sort. The very fact that she’s one of the most powerful minds in history, to me, means that she is a feminist in the spirit she embodies, right? In what she represents.
The contradictions… Nietzsche’s full of contradictions of this sort. The very fact that she’s one of the most powerful minds in history, to me, means that she is a feminist in the spirit she embodies, right? In what she represents.
Jennifer Burns
She lived the ideals of individualism in her life and set aside gender norms in her own life, but she did not see herself as doing this for the benefit of other women or to change society’s views about women. There was no collective essence to it. If feminism has some sort of collective aspect to it, or at least some identification, one needs to identify with a broader category of women and feel they’re acting on behalf of that, she’s definitely not doing that. She was fair to women in her life, promoted them in her life, but did not… She was very negative about feminism, because they dressed terribly. Then the other thing, it’s really interesting, there’s all these kind of homoerotic themes in her writing. For that reason, many gay men were drawn to her writing, and then she would say like, ” Homosexuals are dirty, terrible people.”
She lived the ideals of individualism in her life and set aside gender norms in her own life, but she did not see herself as doing this for the benefit of other women or to change society’s views about women. There was no collective essence to it. If feminism has some sort of collective aspect to it, or at least some identification, one needs to identify with a broader category of women and feel they’re acting on behalf of that, she’s definitely not doing that. She was fair to women in her life, promoted them in her life, but did not… She was very negative about feminism, because they dressed terribly. Then the other thing, it’s really interesting, there’s all these kind of homoerotic themes in her writing. For that reason, many gay men were drawn to her writing, and then she would say like, ” Homosexuals are dirty, terrible people.”
She would denounce people for being homosexual. There’s a whole actual literature of gay men wrestling with Rand and what she says about gay people. Yeah, it’s hard to make sense of. I want to be charitable. I just think of the enormous pressure she was under in the culture she was raised in, the expectations that were placed upon her, and her just utter inability to meet any of them. And it came out in this very tortured set of ideals that she tried to promote. And this lack of ability was probably too painful to introspect and to think about that. So she just tried to rationalize her way through it, and it came out in these very strange theories.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think that Ayn Rand is… Maybe you can correct me, but as far as I can see, never mentioned in the list of great thinkers in history or even the great thinkers of the 20th century or even the great female thinkers of the 20th century. You have somebody like Simone de Beauvoir, Hannah Arendt. I almost never see her in the list.
Why do you think that Ayn Rand is… Maybe you can correct me, but as far as I can see, never mentioned in the list of great thinkers in history or even the great thinkers of the 20th century or even the great female thinkers of the 20th century. You have somebody like Simone de Beauvoir, Hannah Arendt. I almost never see her in the list.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
If you Google those silly list whatever top thinkers of the 20th century, she’s not mentioned. Why is that?
If you Google those silly list whatever top thinkers of the 20th century, she’s not mentioned. Why is that?
Jennifer Burns
A lot of people just deeply dislike Rand. They deeply dislike her ideas. They don’t think they’re profound because their disconnection from other ideas and other understandings of human society. I think [inaudible 03:08:06] you could look at them and say, “These ideas are very provocative and they’re very deep because she’s not taking anything for granted, and she’s flipping everything around and forcing you to really think.” To a lot of other readers, to her critics, they just look absurd. How could you even make these contentions? And I think that because she… She’s not without precedence and she’s not without followers, but she doesn’t knit herself into an intellectual community the way that these other thinkers do very naturally. You can see who they influence. You can see who they’re in dialogue with. I think my book was one of the first to really take Rand and say, “She’s a figure in American history. Here’s who she’s connected to. Here’s who she’s influenced.”
A lot of people just deeply dislike Rand. They deeply dislike her ideas. They don’t think they’re profound because their disconnection from other ideas and other understandings of human society. I think [inaudible 03:08:06] you could look at them and say, “These ideas are very provocative and they’re very deep because she’s not taking anything for granted, and she’s flipping everything around and forcing you to really think.” To a lot of other readers, to her critics, they just look absurd. How could you even make these contentions? And I think that because she… She’s not without precedence and she’s not without followers, but she doesn’t knit herself into an intellectual community the way that these other thinkers do very naturally. You can see who they influence. You can see who they’re in dialogue with. I think my book was one of the first to really take Rand and say, “She’s a figure in American history. Here’s who she’s connected to. Here’s who she’s influenced.”
And I got a lot of pushback for that. I think now people are more open to it, but I think the people who compile these lists really dislike her work and they think it’s shallow because they find her fiction overdrawn. They find her work, in the mythic register, simple. And she’s also a grand systematic thinker in an age that’s over systems. She’s almost creating an inverse Marxism, right? Marx was writing in 1848. He’s not a thinker of the mid 20th century. I think that’s part of it, the lack of a legacy and the dislike of what she had to say, and the feeling that she’s too detached. Her insights are not insights because they’re too idealized rather than being rooted in a theory of human nature that people find plausible.
Evolution of ideas in history
Lex Fridman
You study and write about history of ideas in the United States over the past 100 plus years. How do you think ideas evolve and gain power over the populace, over our government, over culture, just looking at evolution of ideas as they dance and challenge each other and play in public discourse? What do you think is the mechanism by which they take hold and have influence?
You study and write about history of ideas in the United States over the past 100 plus years. How do you think ideas evolve and gain power over the populace, over our government, over culture, just looking at evolution of ideas as they dance and challenge each other and play in public discourse? What do you think is the mechanism by which they take hold and have influence?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, there’s a couple different ways, I think, it happens. I really am interested in the relationship between the thinker and then the reader and the interpreter of the ideas, and then the conditions on the ground that make that idea resonate or not resonate. I think a lot. As an intellectual historian, I’m studying the ideas. I’m always putting them in their historical context like, “What is happening that is making these things resonate? That is making them… People seek them out. For Rand’s case, she has this credibility because of her experience of communism. She’s one of these defining moments of the time. Then I think the idea comes out in a pure form, and then other people rework it and reshape it as they read it. And I’m really interested in how people form communities around these ideas. A bunch of people started calling themselves objectivists and getting together to read Rand’s work. That was spontaneous and ground up. It wasn’t supported by any money. Nobody planned it. It just happened.
Yeah, there’s a couple different ways, I think, it happens. I really am interested in the relationship between the thinker and then the reader and the interpreter of the ideas, and then the conditions on the ground that make that idea resonate or not resonate. I think a lot. As an intellectual historian, I’m studying the ideas. I’m always putting them in their historical context like, “What is happening that is making these things resonate? That is making them… People seek them out. For Rand’s case, she has this credibility because of her experience of communism. She’s one of these defining moments of the time. Then I think the idea comes out in a pure form, and then other people rework it and reshape it as they read it. And I’m really interested in how people form communities around these ideas. A bunch of people started calling themselves objectivists and getting together to read Rand’s work. That was spontaneous and ground up. It wasn’t supported by any money. Nobody planned it. It just happened.
Friedman’s a different case in that he joins an established tradition of thought that’s been institutionalized in universities. So people are signing up and paying money and getting credential to learn these ideas. To my mind, these are two different ways but really emblematic ways of how ideas spread. Rand, I think of as more bottom up. People encounter the idea in a book. They’re blown away by it, or they imbibe it without even realizing they’re imbibing it, and then they’re like, “Well, maybe I don’t like Franklin Roosevelt so much.” Or, “Maybe I’ll look at another time at Barry Goldwater.” Then whereas Friedman, you get the idea more top down. I know I’m getting the idea. I know I’m being positioned within a elite discourse of economics. I think they go top-down and bottom-up, and then they hit the events, right?
Friedman’s ideas wouldn’t have gone anywhere without that episode of stagflation that really made people think they proved out. And I think Rand’s ideas really caught fire in Cold War America, that’s looking for a statement of like, “What does it mean to be an individual? What does it mean to live in this mass society?” Because it’s also a time of great social conformity, where people are suddenly… They’re working for large corporations. They’ve been served in a large military. The United States is stepping out onto the world stage. Everything is bigger. What does it mean to be an individual in that world? That’s where Rand’s ideas catch fire. I think a lot about that. About how they trickle through different levels of society, and then how ideas collide with experience I think is critical.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about when they actually take power in government? I think about ideas like Marxism and how that evolves into the Bolshevik Revolution and how that takes hold in its implementations. Or you can think about Nazism and with Hitler where it goes from a small number of people that get real excited about a thing and then somehow just becomes viral and takes hold in power, and then that has its consequences.
What do you think about when they actually take power in government? I think about ideas like Marxism and how that evolves into the Bolshevik Revolution and how that takes hold in its implementations. Or you can think about Nazism and with Hitler where it goes from a small number of people that get real excited about a thing and then somehow just becomes viral and takes hold in power, and then that has its consequences.
Jennifer Burns
When I think about this sort of historical path of communism and the logics and dynamics of communism, in many ways it has some echoes with Rand in that the ideology in its purest form is almost… It’s a rationalist ideology of some ways. It’s an analysis of history and how things are supposed to be. I think you mentioned Hannah Arendt. I think she is one of the most penetrating analyses of communism, which she really puts in category, like it’s a logical ideology. Logic leads inexorably to its conclusions, and then experience crops up and experience is different. And what does a cult of rationality do when it hits experience? Well, it tries to bend experience to its will. That, I think, is really the story of communism writ large.
When I think about this sort of historical path of communism and the logics and dynamics of communism, in many ways it has some echoes with Rand in that the ideology in its purest form is almost… It’s a rationalist ideology of some ways. It’s an analysis of history and how things are supposed to be. I think you mentioned Hannah Arendt. I think she is one of the most penetrating analyses of communism, which she really puts in category, like it’s a logical ideology. Logic leads inexorably to its conclusions, and then experience crops up and experience is different. And what does a cult of rationality do when it hits experience? Well, it tries to bend experience to its will. That, I think, is really the story of communism writ large.
The question though is why does it catch fire? Why does it draw people into political allegiance? I think in the case of communism, it’s this dream of a more ethical world, dream of equality, dream of the powerless rising up against the powerful. That’s drawn in so many. Then you had the whole edition of Leninism, which gave a international cast to that and helped people think about what are the relations between poorer and richer countries and what can we expect out of them and what might happen. Gave us a framework for thinking about that in a time when the world was becoming more interconnected and those differences were becoming more obvious. Fascism to me is unleashing more something dark and primal within people, and it’s more a permission structure to indulge in that that is normally not there. Those impulses are normally channeled or held down, and it seems that when the fascist regimes come into power, they give people permission to let those forces out.
Lex Fridman
I think on communism, going back to that lecture that Ayn Rand gave, I think what rings true to me a little bit is that what fuels it is a kind of… Maybe not resentment, but envy towards the have-nots versus the haves. And there’s some degree to wish Nazism has the same envy towards some group, resentment towards some group. Given the environment of hard times, hard economic times, combined with a more primal, just envy of not having and seeing somebody who has it and just constructing a narrative around that. That can become a real viral idea.
I think on communism, going back to that lecture that Ayn Rand gave, I think what rings true to me a little bit is that what fuels it is a kind of… Maybe not resentment, but envy towards the have-nots versus the haves. And there’s some degree to wish Nazism has the same envy towards some group, resentment towards some group. Given the environment of hard times, hard economic times, combined with a more primal, just envy of not having and seeing somebody who has it and just constructing a narrative around that. That can become a real viral idea.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, it seems like communism is more animated by this idea of injustice. The world is unjust. It should be different. And fascism seems like the process of scapegoating, right? We’ve identified the source of the problem, and it’s this group and they need to be punished for what they’ve done to the rest of us.
Yeah, it seems like communism is more animated by this idea of injustice. The world is unjust. It should be different. And fascism seems like the process of scapegoating, right? We’ve identified the source of the problem, and it’s this group and they need to be punished for what they’ve done to the rest of us.
Lex Fridman
There is a primal thing going back to literature in 1984, Two Minutes of Hate, where you can get everybody real excited about hating a thing. There’s something primal about us humans where once you’re in that state of hate, anyone can direct that hate towards anything. Towards any group, towards any idea, towards anything. We could get caught up in the mass hysteria of the hatred. It’s a dangerous thing. You floated the idea, I forget where, of pivoting for your next book towards maybe writing about postmodernism, which is a set of ideas almost the opposite of Ayn Rand’s philosophy. Can you maybe explain your curiosity about, first of all, spaces of ideas, but maybe postmodernism?
There is a primal thing going back to literature in 1984, Two Minutes of Hate, where you can get everybody real excited about hating a thing. There’s something primal about us humans where once you’re in that state of hate, anyone can direct that hate towards anything. Towards any group, towards any idea, towards anything. We could get caught up in the mass hysteria of the hatred. It’s a dangerous thing. You floated the idea, I forget where, of pivoting for your next book towards maybe writing about postmodernism, which is a set of ideas almost the opposite of Ayn Rand’s philosophy. Can you maybe explain your curiosity about, first of all, spaces of ideas, but maybe postmodernism?
Postmodernism
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I think in the broadest sense, what I’m interested in, kind of two dimensions, that guide me in doing intellectual history. One is what I talked about, like how does an idea go from a book, an elite space, out to more popular dimensions? How does that happen? What happens to the idea along the way? How is it distorted or changed? And the other is just search for meaning in a post-Christian era or a secular era. Like, “What are people coming up with?” And I think to replace that void in their religious or spiritual lives, I think both Rand and Friedman offered these alternatives, right? Objectivism, quasi-rationalist religion. People take economics as a theory of the world that you can almost believe in it, right? It can almost take that place. And in both cases, how did those ideas travel? When I think about postmodernism, it first struck me… If you read the original postmodern thinkers, it’s really tough going.
Yeah, I think in the broadest sense, what I’m interested in, kind of two dimensions, that guide me in doing intellectual history. One is what I talked about, like how does an idea go from a book, an elite space, out to more popular dimensions? How does that happen? What happens to the idea along the way? How is it distorted or changed? And the other is just search for meaning in a post-Christian era or a secular era. Like, “What are people coming up with?” And I think to replace that void in their religious or spiritual lives, I think both Rand and Friedman offered these alternatives, right? Objectivism, quasi-rationalist religion. People take economics as a theory of the world that you can almost believe in it, right? It can almost take that place. And in both cases, how did those ideas travel? When I think about postmodernism, it first struck me… If you read the original postmodern thinkers, it’s really tough going.
I make my students do it, and they suffer. I think they see it’s worthwhile, but it’s no fun to read Derrida. But somehow it’s trickled down into how do we go from Derrida to Tumblr? And I realized like, “Oh, this has happened with postmodernism.” It’s followed the same path, say, from Milton Friedman’s economic theory to free to choose on YouTube. We’ve had a similar path of high French theory down to Tumblr, and I sexually identify as an attack helicopter or whatever it may be. That was really interesting. Then I also thought, “Well…” At the same time, this is clearly a structure of meaning. And I actually think it’s followed the same path of objectivism, which is distilled down and then turning into its opposite.
So if objectivism was a group of people who considered themselves individualists, who ended up deeply conforming to the dictates of a charismatic leader. Postmodernism started about disrupting binaries. We’re going to be fluid. We’re going to go beyond the border. We’re going to disrupt the binary. And it’s devolved in its popular forms to the re-inscribing of many different binaries. Oppressor and oppressed has become this paradigmatic set of glasses you put on to understand the world. I think the dynamics are very, very similar. I think it’s something in the traffic of the idea from its pure form to its popular form, and then how it gets politicized or mobilized in different ways. And behind it all, I think, is this human longing for meaning and the inadequacy of the traditional ways that need was met at this point in time.
Lex Fridman
By the way, going from pure form to popular form, I remember… This might be before the internet, but when I was in college reading Derrida and Foucault, not knowing context at all, it wasn’t interesting. All right. I’m able to read pure encapsulations of an idea and just like, “Oh, all right, well that person believes that.” And you just hold it. But if you actually take the pure form of that idea and then it creates a community around it, you realize what that actually becomes and you’re like, “Oh, yeah no. I don’t…” That’s not… Although I do consider myself sexually an attack helicopter, that identify sexually. That’s beautiful. Okay, your process of researching for, let’s see, the biographies of Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand seems like an insane amount of work.
By the way, going from pure form to popular form, I remember… This might be before the internet, but when I was in college reading Derrida and Foucault, not knowing context at all, it wasn’t interesting. All right. I’m able to read pure encapsulations of an idea and just like, “Oh, all right, well that person believes that.” And you just hold it. But if you actually take the pure form of that idea and then it creates a community around it, you realize what that actually becomes and you’re like, “Oh, yeah no. I don’t…” That’s not… Although I do consider myself sexually an attack helicopter, that identify sexually. That’s beautiful. Okay, your process of researching for, let’s see, the biographies of Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand seems like an insane amount of work.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
You did incredible work there, going to the original sources… Can you maybe speak to that? What is required to persevere and to go for so many years, to go so deep to the sources?
You did incredible work there, going to the original sources… Can you maybe speak to that? What is required to persevere and to go for so many years, to go so deep to the sources?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah, I go to the archive. That’s where I feel like I’m communing with the dead in some ways. I’m seeing what they saw in some ways and reading what they felt. I tell my doctoral students, “It’s got to be something that gets you out of bed in the morning, because there comes a point in your doctoral career when there’s nowhere to go. There’s nowhere to be. You got to be getting up because you’re interested in what you want to study.” And so with Rand, it was this real sense of discovery. I am discovering. I want to know about this woman. I want to know where she fits. And the only way to find out is to do the research.
Yeah, I go to the archive. That’s where I feel like I’m communing with the dead in some ways. I’m seeing what they saw in some ways and reading what they felt. I tell my doctoral students, “It’s got to be something that gets you out of bed in the morning, because there comes a point in your doctoral career when there’s nowhere to go. There’s nowhere to be. You got to be getting up because you’re interested in what you want to study.” And so with Rand, it was this real sense of discovery. I am discovering. I want to know about this woman. I want to know where she fits. And the only way to find out is to do the research.
Yeah, I like to go deep. It’s really interesting to me. And I should say in both of these cases, I’ve done it in an institutional structure. I don’t know that I would do it independently. The first was a graduate program in history, was at UC Berkeley. I had coursework. Then I had structures, and I did have people to check in with and read, but I had a great deal of latitude. I’m very grateful for… People are like, “You wrote a dissertation on Ayn Rand at Berkeley?” I’m like, “Yeah, hell, I did.” Berkeley’s like… It’s a great place. At the time I was there, there was absolute room for free inquiry.
Lex Fridman
Oh, can you just linger on that? When you said that you’re doing that and doing a dissertation on Ayn Rand, was there… Did people get upset?
Oh, can you just linger on that? When you said that you’re doing that and doing a dissertation on Ayn Rand, was there… Did people get upset?
Jennifer Burns
No. I did have a friendly critic who took it upon himself to throw at me everything he thought the outside world would throw at me. I think maybe 5 or 10 years earlier, it wouldn’t have been possible. But the most important thing I had to… The person I really had to convince this was worth doing was myself, because I knew it was an unconventional choice for the field and for a dissertation. But once I convinced myself, I just said, “Well, I’m going to do this and see.” And because it was unconventional, it ended up standing out. And it really was the time… I started it during second Bush administration, George W. Bush, second term. People were interested in just conservatism in general. No matter where they stood on the political spectrum, felt like objectively we don’t know enough about this and this is a problem, so they were open to learning more. I really caught that wave in scholarship and caught that wave in American culture where people wanted to know more.
No. I did have a friendly critic who took it upon himself to throw at me everything he thought the outside world would throw at me. I think maybe 5 or 10 years earlier, it wouldn’t have been possible. But the most important thing I had to… The person I really had to convince this was worth doing was myself, because I knew it was an unconventional choice for the field and for a dissertation. But once I convinced myself, I just said, “Well, I’m going to do this and see.” And because it was unconventional, it ended up standing out. And it really was the time… I started it during second Bush administration, George W. Bush, second term. People were interested in just conservatism in general. No matter where they stood on the political spectrum, felt like objectively we don’t know enough about this and this is a problem, so they were open to learning more. I really caught that wave in scholarship and caught that wave in American culture where people wanted to know more.
Lex Fridman
We should probably say that Ayn Rand at the very-
We should probably say that Ayn Rand at the very-
Lex Fridman
Probably say that. Ayn Rand is, at the very least, as you’ve mentioned, a kind of gateway to conservatism.
Probably say that. Ayn Rand is, at the very least, as you’ve mentioned, a kind of gateway to conservatism.
Jennifer Burns
Yes. I called her the gateway drug in that people start with Rand. They’re taken by her. In some ways, she takes the worldview of Milton Friedman in terms of what capitalism can accomplish economically. And then she puts it in this mythopoetic register, and she fictionalizes it. So once people have absorbed that, they want more. They go on to learning more of the ideas behind that vision, or they have become true believers. They’ve converted.
Yes. I called her the gateway drug in that people start with Rand. They’re taken by her. In some ways, she takes the worldview of Milton Friedman in terms of what capitalism can accomplish economically. And then she puts it in this mythopoetic register, and she fictionalizes it. So once people have absorbed that, they want more. They go on to learning more of the ideas behind that vision, or they have become true believers. They’ve converted.
And so then they head off to work for a politician, to work for a think tank, to work for a party. t’s absolute traffic. Now, not everyone. There’s plenty of people who read Ayn Rand who don’t take the politics in. It’s a nice story. It’s interesting, just an episode in their life. But for others, it’s really foundational. It really changes them.
So those were the people I wanted to track very deliberately. I wasn’t trying to do in the round everything about Ayn Rand. I was like Ayn Rand and the American Right, Goddess of the Market. Ayn Rand and the American Right is the title. So where did they take her, those who took her in this political direction? What difference did she make?
Lex Fridman
If we return to the actual your process, so you’re showing up, you’re reading sources. And you’re like, “Is it like the process of discovery?” You’re just taking it all in and seeing what unifying ideas emerge, or maybe special moments that illustrate an idea emerge?
If we return to the actual your process, so you’re showing up, you’re reading sources. And you’re like, “Is it like the process of discovery?” You’re just taking it all in and seeing what unifying ideas emerge, or maybe special moments that illustrate an idea emerge?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. I know with the biography of a person, I am already given a start and an end date and a rough narrative of what happens. So I have a structure. And then, both with Rand and Friedman, I started by reading their major books before I really read anything about them because I wanted my own experience of the material to be fresh. And I had read some Ayn Rand, but not a lot.
Yeah. I know with the biography of a person, I am already given a start and an end date and a rough narrative of what happens. So I have a structure. And then, both with Rand and Friedman, I started by reading their major books before I really read anything about them because I wanted my own experience of the material to be fresh. And I had read some Ayn Rand, but not a lot.
Similarly, I had read some Friedman, but not a lot. So I first is like, “Let me read the major stuff, get oriented,” and then just dive into the archive and see what’s there. Who are they talking to? What’s going on? in Rand’s case, I was interested in her in the United States, not her in Russia. I didn’t have the language skills to do that. So I start her in the United States, and I start when she publishes her first book, and she starts getting letters. And who is she writing to? Who’s writing to her?
And then I start to uncover this world of nascent conservatism. And I’m putting that together. And once I have enough, I say, “Well, that’s a chapter.” I’m going to cover that chapter. And then there’s going to be the book has come out. And so now, I need to start a different chapter. What’s her life after the book has been published?
And then I look for that. Although I have this very high level structure, it’s coming out of the archive, the material I’m finding. And if I’m not finding the material there, I won’t cover it in great detail, or if I’ve decided it’s outside my ambit, I’m not going to go into great depth on it.
Lex Fridman
And you’re trying to understand the relationships. It’s so fascinating, like reconstruct in a dark room, trying to reconstruct, shine a light on relationships through reading letters. It’s interesting.
And you’re trying to understand the relationships. It’s so fascinating, like reconstruct in a dark room, trying to reconstruct, shine a light on relationships through reading letters. It’s interesting.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. Yeah. Correspondence is really, really helpful, drafts, correspondence. And someone this famous, they have oral histories. Other people write about them. So you’re reading all these different things and triangulating and trying to put them together and then think about how do I present this in a compelling story, and what do I need to explain?
Yeah. Yeah. Correspondence is really, really helpful, drafts, correspondence. And someone this famous, they have oral histories. Other people write about them. So you’re reading all these different things and triangulating and trying to put them together and then think about how do I present this in a compelling story, and what do I need to explain?
And then also for me, what was really helpful is that because I teach and I am explaining the broad sweep of 20th century history, so I know that Rand’s involved in a labor action at Warner Brothers, but through my teaching, I realized, “Oh, yes, this is a moment of labor strikes across the country.”
And so then that really changes the origin story of Atlas Shrugged because she’s looking at labor actions, and she originally thinking of the book as being called The Strike. So she’s really responding in real time and being inspired by what’s happening in the mid-1940s in the United States. So then I can take that and run with that and figure out where to go.
Advice to students
Lex Fridman
So you’re super passionate about teaching. You mentioned Milton Friedman had a very interesting way of teaching. So how do you think of teaching, teaching history, teaching history of ideas, teaching bright young minds about the past?
So you’re super passionate about teaching. You mentioned Milton Friedman had a very interesting way of teaching. So how do you think of teaching, teaching history, teaching history of ideas, teaching bright young minds about the past?
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. It’s great. It’s really inspiring the ways the old school dominating way in which Friedman taught would not fly in today’s university wouldn’t be permitted. And also, the students wouldn’t respond to it. So I try to share my enthusiasm. I think that’s almost the number one thing I bring, is my enthusiasm. Look how neat and interesting these ideas are.
Yeah. It’s great. It’s really inspiring the ways the old school dominating way in which Friedman taught would not fly in today’s university wouldn’t be permitted. And also, the students wouldn’t respond to it. So I try to share my enthusiasm. I think that’s almost the number one thing I bring, is my enthusiasm. Look how neat and interesting these ideas are.
I try to keep my own views out pretty much. I try to give the fairest possible rendition I can of each thinker. If I find someone really disturbing, I might side bar at the end of the lecture and say, “I find this unsettling, and this tells me something about myself.” But most of the time, I’m bringing people into the biography of a great thinker, the context of them. And then, in the lecture, we’ll literally read the work together, and we’ll talk about it.
And I’ll ask the students, “What are you finding here? What’s jumping out at you?” Kind of breaking down the language and really teaching them how to do deep reading. So I feel like that is my contribution right now. We’re having trouble reading collectively. We’re having trouble paying attention collectively, and I’m trying to cultivate their skills to doing that and showing them how I do it, and also modeling like, “This is how I would read a text. This is what jumps out to me when I look at Thomas Kuhn or something like this,” and just show them that studying a history of ideas is really fun. I feel incredibly privileged to do it.
And the other thing is, I think this is the time for students in college figuring out who they are. Their minds are developing and growing. They can really handle complicated hard ideas. They don’t always have the context behind them. So I need to give them the hard ideas and then show them this is kind of the context of what’s happening in the world. But really, I’m showing them the landscape. I don’t have time to go deep. We have a 10-week quarter giving them a flyover. And then I want them to know how to go deep and know where they want to go deep.
Lex Fridman
Do the thing that Milton Friedman did, which is in parallel, [inaudible 03:30:39] books.
Do the thing that Milton Friedman did, which is in parallel, [inaudible 03:30:39] books.
Jennifer Burns
Yes. Do their own parallel curriculum. Exactly. Exactly.
Yes. Do their own parallel curriculum. Exactly. Exactly.
Lex Fridman
What advice would you give in terms of reading about ideas you agree with and reading ideas do you disagree with?
What advice would you give in terms of reading about ideas you agree with and reading ideas do you disagree with?
Jennifer Burns
Even though I think the passion is important for the teaching of the ideas, like this passion is more important for the reading and understanding of them. So a lot of people have said to me, “I could never write about Ayn Rand. She makes me so angry.” I don’t get angry reading her. I am like, “Oh, there you go again,” or, “Well, that’s going to cause trouble.”
Even though I think the passion is important for the teaching of the ideas, like this passion is more important for the reading and understanding of them. So a lot of people have said to me, “I could never write about Ayn Rand. She makes me so angry.” I don’t get angry reading her. I am like, “Oh, there you go again,” or, “Well, that’s going to cause trouble.”
And so I guess I’m approaching it with this sort of charity, but also with, I don’t have huge expectations. I’m not expecting to have the light shine on me. I’m not expecting to agree. I’m like, “I can be very clinical about it.” So that’s worked for me. It might not work for others.
And then, I just try to find the humor in it. How funny is it, these different aspects of them? When teaching my students about Oliver Wendell Holmes, his dad wrote a poem about him. He called him the astronaut about how he came from outer space. He seemed like he came from outer space. I’m like, “This is his dad’s view of his son.” That’s how weird of a guy he was.
And so I try to find that, keep alert for those funny kind of human touches that these are ultimately just people, people with ideas that they spent enough time polishing up and developing that we still want to read about them 100 years later.
Lex Fridman
What about the dramatic formulation of that same question? Do you think there’s some ideas that are good and some of that are evil? Do you think we can draw such lines or is it more complicated like the old soul genius in line between good and evil that runs to the heart of every person?
What about the dramatic formulation of that same question? Do you think there’s some ideas that are good and some of that are evil? Do you think we can draw such lines or is it more complicated like the old soul genius in line between good and evil that runs to the heart of every person?
Jennifer Burns
I philosophically agree with Solzhenitsyn, for sure. I do think some ideas pull on the good side and some ideas pull on the bad side, absolutely. And I think that’s probably why people dislike Rand so much, is they feel like she’s giving license to the bad side, and she’s saying, “It’s okay to be selfish, and it’s okay…” They feel like she’s the dark forces.
I philosophically agree with Solzhenitsyn, for sure. I do think some ideas pull on the good side and some ideas pull on the bad side, absolutely. And I think that’s probably why people dislike Rand so much, is they feel like she’s giving license to the bad side, and she’s saying, “It’s okay to be selfish, and it’s okay…” They feel like she’s the dark forces.
And in some cases, that may be true, but she’s also unloosing some of the light forces in terms of reflecting on yourself and trying to be true. But definitely, there are ideas that are dangerous to play with. And there are ideas that I think give license to the darker sides of human nature. But I think you can see that in the historical record. So I think that it’s possible to show that. And obviously, there’s some places like Germany. They think the ideas are so dangerous, they can’t be allowed to circulate. And in some contexts, that may absolutely be true.
Lex Fridman
And then still even that, we should take with a grain of salt because perhaps censorship of an idea is more dangerous than an idea. So all of that, that’s the beautiful thing about us humans. We are always at tension trying to figure out what ideas are the ones that are going to help humanity flourish. Pothead question, do humans have ideas or do ideas have us?
And then still even that, we should take with a grain of salt because perhaps censorship of an idea is more dangerous than an idea. So all of that, that’s the beautiful thing about us humans. We are always at tension trying to figure out what ideas are the ones that are going to help humanity flourish. Pothead question, do humans have ideas or do ideas have us?
So where do ideas come from? You have Milton Friedman sitting there after Rutger’s trying to figure out what he can do about the Great Depression. Do you ever think about this? I sometimes think aliens are actually ideas. They’re just kind of travel through human brains and captivate us. And we get all real excited with the monolith in 2001 Space Odyssey, a monolith lands, and everybody gets excited. And somehow this idea just gets everybody to be on the same page, and it reverberates through the community, and then that results in an implementation of some action that results in us figuring out that that idea was actually bad, and we learn new ideas. But it feels like the idea is right in the show.
Jennifer Burns
Yeah. I think in a lot of cases, I think it’s true. Keynes has this famous quote like, “Most men are slaves of some defunct economist.”
Yeah. I think in a lot of cases, I think it’s true. Keynes has this famous quote like, “Most men are slaves of some defunct economist.”
Lex Fridman
That’s funny. That’s funny.
That’s funny. That’s funny.
Jennifer Burns
So I do think it’s really hard to have an original thought. We are social creatures. We encounter the same situations again and again. And so it’s really hard. You’re born into these traditions of thinking and being and knowing. And most people are never going to question them, and most people are never going to become aware of them.
So I do think it’s really hard to have an original thought. We are social creatures. We encounter the same situations again and again. And so it’s really hard. You’re born into these traditions of thinking and being and knowing. And most people are never going to question them, and most people are never going to become aware of them.
So again, that’s some of the work of what I do as an intellectual historian. It’s like, “Let’s become aware. Let’s realize that you’re carrying a map that’s orienting you to the world in a certain way.” And so I think you have to work really, really hard to have an original idea. And even then, it’s not a completely original idea. It’s a reworking and a reassembling of ideas others have had.
So I definitely think it’s possible to create autonomy in the realm of ideas and to be an autonomous consumer of ideas. But I think, on balance, most people are not. And that’s fine. They want to have experiences. They want to do other things with their life.
Lex Fridman
Well, Jennifer, thank you so much for this journey through ideas today, and thank you so much for your incredible work. It was really fun and fascinating to talk with you today. Thank you,
Well, Jennifer, thank you so much for this journey through ideas today, and thank you so much for your incredible work. It was really fun and fascinating to talk with you today. Thank you,
Jennifer Burns
Thank you.
Thank you.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Jennifer Burns. And now, let me try to reflect on and articulate some things I’ve been thinking about. If you’d like to submit questions or topics that I can comment on in this way here at the end of episodes, go to lexfridman.com/ama, or contact me for whatever other reason at lexfridman. com/contact.
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Jennifer Burns. And now, let me try to reflect on and articulate some things I’ve been thinking about. If you’d like to submit questions or topics that I can comment on in this way here at the end of episodes, go to lexfridman.com/ama, or contact me for whatever other reason at lexfridman. com/contact.
Lex reflects on Volodymyr Zelenskyy interview
Please allow me to say a few words about my interview with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, now that a few days have passed and I’ve had the chance to think about the conversation itself, the response, future upcoming conversations, and what it all means for the war in Ukraine, for global geopolitics, and for us humans in general.
I’ve gotten a lot of heartfelt positive words from all sides, including, at least so far, literally everybody who knows me personally inside Ukraine, which includes a lot of soldiers and many high profile figures, some who are supportive of the president, and some who are critical of him.
Literally, all private communication has been positive and supportive. This is usually not the case with me. Friends usually will write to me to criticize and to disagree. That’s the whole point of friendship, to argue and have fun doing it. There was none of that here, at least so far. So thank you for your support and kind words. It means the world.
The most common message was, please keep pushing for peace. I will. But online on the interwebs, I saw a lot of attacks sometimes from swarms of online accounts which, of course, makes me suspicious about the origin of those attacks.
One of my friends in Ukraine, who by the way thinks the attacks are all propped out by Ukrainian bot farms, said, “There’s no need to say anything extra. Let the interview stand on its own. Just keep focused on the mission of pushing for peace.” Basically, he’s a Ukrainian version of my other friend, Joe Rogan, who to this day says, “Don’t read the comments.”
This is generally good advice and I try to follow it. But I’m also human being. I wear my heart on my sleeve. And this interview, this war for me is deeply personal. And the level of vitriol, misrepresentation, and lies about the conversation and about me personally was particularly intense and disingenuous. So I thought I would use this opportunity to say a few words, just speak a bit more about how I approach this conversation with President Zelensky and conversations in general.
This interview is something I poured my heart and soul into preparing a lot. I’ve described parts of the preparation process I follow in the outro to the Zelensky conversation. But in general, let me say that I’ve read a lot, listened to a lot, and had a lot of private conversations with people on the ground. I have many flaws. But being unprepared for this conversation is not one of them.
Two low effort attacks got to me a bit, if I’m being honest though I am learning to take it all in stride. First attack is that I’m unprepared, uninformed or naive. I don’t give a damn about the trolls, but I want people who listen to me, who support me, who care about my words, to know that this is not the case. It never will be the case for future conversations, especially ones of this importance. I work extremely hard to prepare.
Second low effort attack that got to me a bit is that I’m a shill for Zelensky or a shill for Putin. Both accusations were hurled readily and freely by the online mob of all persuasions by the left and the right in the United States and Europe by the pro and the anti-Zelensky people in Ukraine or of Ukrainian origins and by the pro and anti-Putin people in Russia or of Russian origins.
As I’ve said over and over, this is not the case. I will never be the case. I’m a shill for no one. More than that, I just simply refuse to be caught in any one single echo chamber. It’s an ongoing battle of course, because social media algorithms and the various dogmatic groups and tribes out there want to pull you in to their warm embrace of belonging. And humans want to belong.
But the cost of the path I have chosen is that I will never belong to any one group. In the end, like many of us must, I walk alone. And I try to do my best to do what is right to my independent heart and mind, not what is popular with any one group.
My goals for this conversation were twofold. First, give a large platform to President Zelensky to explain his perspective on the war and to do so in a way that brings out the best in who he is as a leader and human being. Second goal was to push for peace, and to give him every opportunity possible to signal that he’s ready to make peace, and to provide his vision for what that might look like.
And just to be clear, by peace, I mean long-lasting peace that minimizes suffering of people in the region and maximizes the flourishing of humanity in the coming decades. The war in Ukraine has led to over one million casualties and growing every single day. For some people torn apart by loss, tormented, and forced into a state of anger and hate, peace is a dirty word. To them, nothing less than justice must be accepted.
I hear this pain. I’ve seen the bodies and the suffering. It’s true. Peace will not bring back your loved ones. But it’ll prevent further slaughter of more people, each of whom are someone else’s loved ones. So again, the second goal of this conversation was to push for this kind of peace.
So how did I approach it? Every conversation is its own puzzle. So let me try to explain my approach for this one. As I’ve said, I read and listened to a lot of material since February 24th, 2022. There would be many weeks over the past three years where I would spend every day over eight hours a day of focused reading and research.
There were several rabbit holes that I consistently returned to and researched. But the most important line of inquiry was always peace talks, not just in this war, but in other wars in modern history. For this specific war, as part of the background prep, I would take notes on every single perspective I could find on every single major diplomatic meeting and negotiation that happened in Ukraine-Russia relations since 1991.
There is a lot of material to go through. And there are a lot of perspectives, even on the very 2019 meeting that President Zelensky spoke about in this podcast. Just as a small but important example, Andrii Bogdan was interviewed twice by Dmytro Gordon and gave a deep inside look of the administration of President Zelensky, including that very 2019 meeting.
The two interviews are seven and a half hours by the way. And from my interviewer perspective, are a masterclass of interviewing. Andrii Bogdan worked directly with President Zelensky as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. He was there for the 2019 face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin at the Paris Summit, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This was part of the Normandy Format Peace Talks.
In those two interviews, Andrii Bogdan gave a very different perspective on that 2019 meeting than did President Zelensky to me in our conversation, the perspective being that the failure to negotiate a ceasefire and peace was not a simple one-sided story.
I don’t think this is the right time for me to dive into that data point and be critical. I’m not interested in being critical for the sake of criticism. I am interested once again in productive conversations, critical or otherwise, that push towards peace, the kind I described earlier. This is merely an example of a data point I was collecting in my brain.
There are many, many others. But all of it taken together made it clear to me, and I still believe this, that it is indeed very difficult but possible to negotiate long-lasting peace with Vladimir Putin. It’s certainly true that Ukraine is best positioned to negotiate from a place of strength. After the invasion of February 24th, 2022, I believe there were three chances where peace was most achievable. First chance was March and April of 2022 with a successful defense of the north. Second chance was the fall of 2022 with the successful counteroffensive in Kherson and Kharkiv.
The third chance is now. As he has stated multiple times publicly, Donald Trump is very interested in making peace. It is likely that the US financial support for this war will continue to dwindle. So the leverage and the timing for peace negotiation is now. There is unlikely to be another chance like this for a long time.
Just to zoom out on the conversation piece of this, I interviewed Donald Trump and may do so again. I interviewed Volodymyr Zelensky and may do so again. And it seems likely that I will interview Vladimir Putin in Russia in the Kremlin. I understand the risks and accept them. The risks for me are not important. I’m not important. I merely want to do my small part in pushing for peace in a moment in history when there’s a real chance for that piece to actually be achieved.
I may be speaking too long, I’m sorry, but I can probably speak for many more hours. So this is in fact me trying to be brief. So again, my two goals were to bring out the best in the President Zelensky as a leader and a human being, and to give him every opportunity possible to signal that he’s ready to make peace and to lay out his vision for what that piece might look like.
Like I said, step one through 10 is prepare well. I did. But step 11 is the actual conversation. They’re the specific psychological and personality quirks and qualities of the guests matter a lot. My job is to try to cut through the bullshit walls we put up as human beings and reveal directly or indirectly who the person truly is and how they think.
With Zelensky, he is a deeply empathic and emotional human who personally feels the suffering of the people of Ukraine in this war. This is a strength and perhaps also a weakness, but it is an important part of the reason why I said many times that he is a truly historic figure.
Very few leaders in recent history would be able to pull off what he did, to stay in Kiev, to unite the country, to convince the west to join the war effort to the degree they did. He is also a showman. To borrow the title of the biography, I recommended a man with many layers of humor and wit, but also ego and temper, sometimes fully self-aware and sometimes losing himself in the emotional rollercoaster of a painful memory or a turn of phrase that he can use as a springboard for a angry soliloquy.
Add to this, the fact that we didn’t agree to anything, what we will talk about or how long we will talk about it. The interview could have easily been five minutes or three hours. So I had to quickly gain his trust enough to open up and stay for a long-form conversation, but push him enough to reveal the complexities of his thought process and his situation.
This is where humor and camaraderie was essential. And I would return to it often though it was very difficult given the stakes, the heaviness, the seriousness of the topic of the war. So in this case, the approach I followed for this conversation is constant nudges and questions about peace, often using almost childlike statements or questions.
I generally like these kinds of questions. On the surface, they may seem naive, but they’re not. They are often profound in their simplicity, like a lot of questions that children ask. Remember, it was a child who pointed out that the emperor was not wearing any clothes. I like the simplicity, the purity, the boldness of such questions to cut through the bullshit to the truth. And that truth is that hundreds of thousands of people died in this war and are dying every day, and all the other problems from corruption, to suspended elections, to censorship cannot be solved until peace is made.
I give the president every single chance to signal willingness to negotiate, knowing that both Trump and Putin will listen to this conversation. I don’t think he took it and, instead, chose to speak very crude words towards Vladimir Putin. This is fully understandable, but not directly productive to negotiation.
To clarify, I have hosted many conversations that were intensely critical of Vladimir Putin from Serhii Plokhy to Stephen Kotkin. But this conversation is with a world leader speaking about another world leader during a opportunity for peace. Crude words of disrespect while powerful may harm negotiations. Peacemaking in this situation requires compromise in order to avoid further death and suffering. And I believe it requires treating the other leader with the seriousness you expect him to treat you with.
This is what I was pushing for, all that while also putting my ego aside and letting the president shine, which is necessary to accomplish both goals one and two that I mentioned previously. This is also why I wanted the president to speak about Elon and Trump to extend the olive branch for further avenues of peacemaking.
This is not about politics. It is once again simply about peace. Now, all of this, my words, my attempts were taken out of context and used to attack me by some online mobs. As an example, President Zelensky said in a mocking tone that he thinks that Vladimir Putin is simply irritated by people who are alive in Ukraine. And I answered, quote, “If you believe this, it will be very difficult to negotiate.” If you think that the president of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in this country,. And he conducts, yes, destructive military actions. The president interrupted me at this point and said, “Who are you talking about now? Who loves this country?”
And I said, “Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love this country?”And the President answered, “No.” Again, this is not a podcast conversation with a historian or activist. And I somehow out of nowhere, just for fun, [inaudible 03:52:38] poetic about Putin’s or Zelensky’s or Trump’s love of nation. It is a conversation with a world leader discussing the opportunity to negotiate peace when a large number of people are dying every single day. Even if the hard ball’s over with hate, leadership now requires sitting at the negotiation table and compromising.
This may be painful, but it is necessary. There are a few other places in the conversation where some online mobs took my words out of context and used them to call me naive and to call for more war, saying peace is impossible with a man who they claim is the second coming of Hitler.
My friends, if you make such attacks on this conversation, it is in fact you who are naive and ignorant of the facts of history and geopolitics. Peace must be made now in order for death and suffering to stop, in order for Ukraine to have a chance to flourish, and in order for the drums of a global war to stop beating, a global war that would cripple humanity. This was my goal once again to push for peace. And I will continue this effort to the best of my ability. Thank you. I love you all.
Files for Volodymyr Zelenskyy Episode | Lex Fridman Podcast #456
Captions & Transcripts:
You can download captions & transcripts in English, Ukrainian & Russian here: Dropbox Link
Videos:
If you need the video version with Original, Ukrainian, or Russian audio tracks for creating clips for YouTube or for any other video platform, the currently best-available method I know for sharing is hosting them on YouTube as unlisted videos. Hopefully these are useful for you:
- Original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVhhlrUbkRk
- Ukrainian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr9ECPIg674
- Russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zQ3p3Yv5PY
Translation Fix:
I fixed the translation of “Ми били по руках всіх” to “We cracked down hard on everyone” in captions. English audio track has been fixed and is being swapped in by YouTube, this might take awhile. In the meantime, you can get the fixed translation version here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y8Ddc3S9-g
See Telegram post explaining some details: https://t.me/lexfridman/329
Transcript for Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Ukraine, War, Peace, Putin, Trump, NATO, and Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #456
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #456 with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
- Go back to this episode’s main page
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Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
Do you honestly think anyone could steal weapons by the truckload when we ourselves don’t have enough on the front lines and yet we have to provide proof to defend ourselves? Because when there’s an abundance of such misinformation, distrust starts to grow. And you’re right, people listen to various media outlets, see this and lose faith in you. In the end, you lose trust and with it you lose support. Therefore, believe me, we are fighting more against disinformation than against particular cases, although I still emphasize once again at the everyday level, such things are still important. We catch these people and we fight them.
… as if Putin wants to sit down and talk, but Ukraine does not. This is not true.
In case you don’t know, the Russian language is one that the President speaks fluently and was his primary language for most of his life. It’s the language I also speak fluently to the degree I speak any language fluently, as does a large fraction of the Ukrainian population. So the most dynamic and powerful conversation between us would be in Russian without an interpreter, who in this case added about two to three second delay and frankly translated partially and poorly for me at least, taking away my ability to feel the humor, the wit, the brilliance, the pain, the anger, the humanity of the person sitting before me, that I could clearly feel when he was speaking fluently in the language I understand, Russian. But all that said, war changes everything. The Ukrainian language has become a symbol of the Ukrainian people’s fight for freedom and independence, so we had a difficult choice of three languages and faced with that choice, we said yes to all three.
To the consternation and dismay of the translators. We make captions and voice over audio tracks available in English, Ukrainian, and Russian, so you can listen either to a version that is all one language or to the original mixed language version with subtitles in your preferred language. The default is English overdub. On YouTube you can switch between language audio tracks by clicking the settings gear icon, then clicking audio track and then selecting the language you prefer English, Ukrainian, Russian. To listen to the original mixed-language version, please select the English (UK) audio track, big thank you to ElevenLabs for their help with overdubbing using a mix of AI and humans. We will continue to explore how to break down the barriers that language creates with AI and otherwise. This is a difficult but important endeavor. Language, after all, is much more than a cold sequence of facts and logic statements.
There are words when spoken in the right sequence and at the right time they can shake the world and turn the tides of history. They can start and end wars. Great leaders can find those words and great translators can help these words reverberate to the outskirts of a divided civilization. On another note, let me say that President Zelenskyy is a truly remarkable person and a historic figure. I say this as somebody who deeply understands the geopolitical complexity and history of the region. I am from this region. My parents were both born in Ukraine, Kyiv and Kharkiv, both my grandfathers too. I was born in Tajikistan and lived for a time there, then in Kyiv, then Moscow, then United States, and while I am now for almost 30 years and to the day I die, I’m a proud American. My family roots grow deep in the soil of nations that comprised the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Tajikistan.
I’ve gotten to know and have spoken for hours with members of the President’s team and people close to him. I spoke to hundreds of Ukrainians since 2022, including soldiers, civilians, politicians, artists, religious leaders, journalists, economists, historians and technologists. I listened to hundreds of hours of programs that both support and criticize the President in Ukraine, in Russia, and the United States. I’ve read countless books about this war and the long arc of history that led up to it. It forced to recommend two at this moment, I would say The Russo-Ukrainian War by Serhii Plokhy and The Showman by Simon Shuster, which is a good personal behind-the-scenes biography of the President focused on 2022, but there are many, many more. This is why I can comfortably say that he is a truly singular and remarkable human being. It was an honor and pleasure to talk with him on and off the mic.
Now, it is true that I plan to travel to Moscow and to speak with President Vladimir Putin and I hope to be back in Kyiv as well as President Zelenskyy said, this was our first of many more meetings. In all of these cases, I seek to do my small part in pushing for peace. And in doing all this, I’m deeply grateful for the trust people have given me on all sides. For the people attacking me, sometimes lying about me, for the critics in the stands chanting the latest slogans of the mass hysteria machine like the sheep in Animal Farm, I love you too. And I assure you that drawing lines between good and evil on a world map is much easier than seeing that line between good and evil in every human being, including you and me. This is what I try to do. I’m simply a human being who seeks to find and surface the humanity in others, and as I’ve said, no amount of money, fame, power, access can buy my opinion or my integrity. Now, finally, please allow me to briefly overview some history to give background for several topics that President Zelenskyy references in this conversation. I recommend my conversation with Serhii Plokhy and many others about the history of the region. But here, let me start with 1991. When Ukraine declared its independence and the Soviet Union collapsed. From this point on Russia-Ukraine relations were defined in large part by whether Ukraine aligned more with Russia or with the West, meaning Europe, United States, NATO, and so on. In 2004, with the Orange Revolution, a pro-Western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko became President. In 2010, it went the other way. A pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych became President. The internal tensions grew and in 2013 Euromaidan protests broke out over Yanukovych’s decision to suspend talks with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia. This set forward a chain of important events in 2014. On the politics front, Yanukovych was ousted and fled to Russia leading to the election of a pro-Western President.
Also, in 2014, on the war front, Russia annexed Crimea and war broke out in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, which eventually killed over 14,000 people and continued all the way to 2022. When on February 24th 2022, Russian forces initiated a full scale invasion of Ukraine. This is when the world started to really pay attention. Now some history of peace talks. Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the presidency in 2019 and he discusses in this conversation the ceasefire agreements he made with Vladimir Putin in 2019, which was one of many attempts at peace from the two Minsk agreements in 2014 and ’15 to a series of ceasefire agreements in 2018, ’19, and ’20, all of which failed in part or in whole. All this shows just how difficult ceasefire and peace negotiations are, but they are not impossible. It is always worth trying over and over again to find the path to peace.
I believe that Presidents Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump should meet soon after January 20th this year and give everything they got to negotiate a ceasefire and security guarantees that pave the way for long-lasting peace. We discussed several ideas for this in this conversation. As I said, this was one of my main goals here, to push for peace. This trip to Kyiv and this conversation was a truly special moment for me in my life. It is one I will never forget, so to reflect I say a few more words and answer some questions at the very end if you like to listen, but here let me say thank you to everyone for your support over the years. It means the world. This is a Lex Fridman Podcast and now dear friends, here’s the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
They do not listen. They did not listen. Some are afraid, some have other issues. They have different reasons. It’s like when a person is drowning and people walk by because they can’t hear them. And someone walks on by crying, afraid to save them. It doesn’t change anything for the one drowning. They need someone to help them. This is why I honestly despise these people as they are deaf. They began the occupation in the supposed defense of the Russian language and that’s why with all due respect, I would like to give an interview in Ukrainian. This is very important to me. If there are some points that you want me to explain in Russian, I can certainly do that. I can certainly occasionally speak Russian, but in general, no. I’m not sure that you will understand me completely, despite your Ukrainian roots, you are a citizen of the United States, right?
Yes, so it’s a very, very, very important and sensitive moment. The message is that we are not one nation. We are not the same country. We’re different countries. Yes, different countries, and I think what is most important is what we’re talking about, not how we’re speaking about it. This is what I think. You are a smart guy, so you have a lot of experience in dialogue of this kind. That’s why I think you will understand me. Yeah. Anyway, I think it is far better for Donald Trump to hear my English, not my Russian.
His own brothers, his entire family were executed. They were tortured by fascists who had occupied Ukraine and their village. His father was the head of the village and he was killed. They were shot. It was a mass… A mass grave, right? Yes. It was a communal burial. Some of them were killed outright and others, they were buried alive. His four brothers, they all went to war. As soon as the war began, they were all there. He was the only one who had a military education, and they all died in the war. He was the only one who came back. He had nobody. He came back and he found my grandmother, his future wife, and she managed… What was it called then? I don’t know. They don’t have them anymore. It was a child care facility, an orphanage, so to speak, a place where orphans lived, children who don’t have parents, children of war.
And she managed this child care facility with difficult children, as they used to call them, difficult children who went through the war, who saw their parents killed, and this is how they met, because these difficult children, they, well, sometimes behave differently. They could steal something, do something bad. There were many, many children in the orphanage. Yes, that’s how she met my grandfather, and I loved him very much, and I think that my grandfather, frankly would never have believed that this war is possible. He would never have believed it because he worked in the police after the war. He was a colonel. He worked in a criminal investigation all his life, so he fought with bandits all his life, after the Second World War, but also I believe he fought for justice all his life. And we all lived in one apartment, and even after his death, I lived with both of my grandmothers and my parents, two grandmothers who both lost their husbands. Both of them died.
Well, it was an ordinary family, an ordinary family that lived like everyone lived back then in the Soviet Union and even after the Soviet in the nineties, we lived in one apartment all together. What else is there to say? But I think the most important thing was values, respect. They gave me an education. My parents gave me an education, no one left me money or apartments, so I didn’t inherit anything material. But I believe that our real inheritance is here, in our minds and in our hearts. I believe that. Understood.
They were in fact constructing and ultimately implemented a theory around this idea later seizing Europe. They created a theory of one nation, one race, one world, their world. Of course, this idea is absolutely senseless, but it has become radicalized over the years and even gained support. A vision of one world and in principle, the so-called Russian World, the ideology Putin promotes and imposes, it wasn’t originally like that. He was a different person back then, or maybe he was always like this, but his rhetoric was different. At the beginning, remember, he talked about the EU, and-
Hitler won’t stop. There’ll be a world war. Hitler will destroy nations, nations, and that’s what happened. Someone looked the other way. What I told you about. Europe was sinking then, I gave you an example of it but the whole world looked the other way and didn’t pay attention and said, no, we can negotiate with him. I’m telling you he’s okay. We can negotiate with him. He’s just more right leaning, or it does not matter what they said. He’s just very pro nationalist. This is all nonsense and this is not the first time and Hitler isn’t the first such case in history. We’re dealing with a person who is allowed to stick to this desire to destroy. He was consumed by it and enjoying it. And what happened to Hitler?
Now, what about Putin? This invasion was also at around four in the morning. There were missile strikes on Ukraine. This is the same. I believe that intentions are also the same but more on that later. By the way, you tell me if this is too long, you can stop me.
By the way, a few days after the first days of the war, I spoke with Lukashenko on the phone and he apologized and he said that it was not me. Missiles were launched from my territory and Putin was the one launching them. These are his words. “I have witnesses and I apologize,” he said. But believe me, that’s what he told me. “Volodymyr, this is not me. I’m not in charge,” he told me, “I’m not in charge. These are just missiles. This is Putin.” I told him, “Don’t do that.” This was done without me. That’s it. On the phone, I remember this conversation. I told him, “You are a murderer too, I’m just saying.” He told me, “You must understand, you can’t fight the Russians.” I told him that we never fought them. I said, “It’s war. The missiles came from your land, from Belarus. How did you allow this?” Then he replied, “All right, retaliate then.” I still remember him telling me, “Hit the refinery. You know how much I care about it.” Mozyr Oil Refinery, is that it? Can’t recall. Mozyr Oil Refinery. I told him, “What are you on about? What retaliation?”
We distributed weapons to people, that’s how it was. Trucks came and simply distributed weapons to people so that they could defend the capital, to ordinary people just on the street, to ordinary people who understood that if the Russians entered a city, then we would have the same thing that’s happening in other cities per the information we received. Thanks to digitalization, by the way, we had very good digitalization before this. We preserved a lot and even when they were surrounding certain cities, a lot of things still worked. The banking system, the internet, we had television, and thanks to this, I made several decisions to ensure that people are united and have all the information. Russia is very good at spreading large scale disinformation. Fortunately, I have two decades of experience managing a production studio, TV channels and large media resources. I understood that we needed to build an information network very quickly.
Thanks to this, I began to address the people constantly. This happened several times, three to five times a day. In fact, I became an information source for people who were in cities that were cut off from other information and it was very important for me to keep all things digital, to keep the internet, to stay in touch with everyone with all the people. Initially, that’s the contact we had and then we also built a media platform where we had all the news agencies of Ukraine and this network was called Marathon. It was also very important for the people to trust us and people had to receive information. Why? There were waves of Russian on the first day who said he ran away. I had to go out into the street, I left the office and went outside. I had to do this because I was showing that this was no green screen to show that it was the street, not some digital manipulation.
I did these things. Then I touched various objects. Now, people might think that these are small things, but I was actually showing that I was in a real place. All of this had an impact. I was absolutely sure of my actions. And these contacts, several contacts and then I spoke to the Russians, I addressed Russians, I really did, and then only after that I gathered… It was the first day when I invited all of the journalists here, wasn’t it? That was on the first day, I think. Well, not here, to the press center in this building. I talked to journalists. I asked them not to leave because we needed weapons. At that moment, they were handing out rifles to people and for me, journalists and media platforms were essential voices.
There were various journalists from different countries here and they were essentially stuck and I asked them for contacts, those who had access to Russians, Belarusians, Kazakhs who understood everything, the same information, and I spoke to them and I spoke to them and spoke in Russian. I told them, “You must stop Putin. This is terrible. This is horror. This is war. You must stop him. And if you stand up now, if you speak out and if you go out into the streets…” This was very important. I spoke to them in Russian to show them that there was no problem and that all of these pretexts were made up. This is why it’s so painful to talk about the Russian language too because look, if a person does not want to listen, they will not listen no matter what language we speak.
Why? There’s only one reason, fear. And you say we need to talk. Listen, we need to be in a strong position and not talk but end the war. Yes, it is possible through dialogue. We’re not opposed to it. You just need to be in a strong position to make the other person want it. Do you think he wants to end the war? That’s what you suggested. I think this is naive. I’m sorry. With all due respect, it’s naive to think he wants to finish the war.
I calculated that if there were a withdrawal of troops from the line of contact the way Russians proposed, it would take 20 years. I proved it to him just in terms of time, square kilometers, namely the length of the line of contact or delimitation line, and we agreed on what I told him that it will not work out but I had many points because I was deeply involved in the issue. I was involved very deeply. It’s my thing in general. If I start doing something, I can’t stand there like that guy I spoke about with my ass out. I must be dressed. I must be prepared. I must be prepared better, better than anyone in front of me. You do sports, right?
Secondly, we agreed on an exchange. For me, this was the most important thing. For them, gas was. For me, was the people and this is a fact because I wanted to have a humanitarian advantage so that there would be further meetings that would lead to sustained peace. And third, ceasefire. Ceasefire, you spoke about. What happened? The gas contract was signed because he needed it. And by the way, he knew everything about it. As for exchange, we took the first step and exchanged the people. Regarding the ceasefire, well, they started killing us in about a month, so I called him and I told him, “We agreed on a ceasefire, didn’t we?” Well, it wasn’t a piece of toilet paper, was it? This is serious business or so it seemed. It really was serious. “Merkel, Macron, you and I, we all agreed on this together. A ceasefire is important, isn’t it?”
Not for New Year’s because everyone was celebrating New Year’s. And now, they’re offering us a Christmas ceasefire. It’s all the same. A ceasefire for two, three days just to get some praise but this isn’t a performance. This isn’t some kind of theater. No, this is about people’s lives and that’s what happened. After that, I called him a few more times. I think I only had two, three calls with him in total. I asked him for a ceasefire. He told me it couldn’t be. We will figure it out now. People from the occupied territory, Russians and separatists, they were all there together. They continued to shoot and kill our people. Yes, the front lines were quiet but they killed people. They were killing people and I kept calling him.
I called again and again, but there was nothing until after a few months the Russians stopped answering the phone. We did not have any contact since. I wanted another meeting like we had in Normandy. I wanted the next meeting. I wanted to find a solution but the Russians refused. We tried to make it happen through various European countries and not only European, but the Russians refused. They passed along some kind of bullshit, made excuses. They didn’t want it. Meanwhile, they were sending their snipers. We had evidence, living proof, even video evidence because some of them were captured back then. Those were the snipers in training. They were training them. They were training them. And later, those snipers operated in Syria and Africa. These snipers were training in our country in the east. Ukrainians were living targets.
They were shooting from the other side, killing people, women, people, children. They were shooting. It was a hunt. By the way, it was in the Russian-speaking region in the east where according to him, everyone is speaking Russian. That’s where they were shooting. Where the situation currently is the most tense. They killed people. We sent this information, sent pictures, we sent them to the UN, sent them everywhere. We worked very hard, very persistently. I met with everyone but who thought of Ukraine back then. They didn’t notice it much. They didn’t pay much attention to Crimea being illegally occupied either. To be honest, the United States of America too, everyone was somewhat silent about this issue. That’s how it was. It was like that before a full-scale war.
I want to ask you a question about the ceasefire. For example, in Mariupol today, there are American and Ukrainian journalists, and everyone will tell you who has contact now with Mariupol, who fled from there in the last minutes, just before the occupation or who was able to leave to escape after the occupation? Chernov, who won an Oscar was among them, and the journalists that left Mariupol, they are here by the way. We had a conversation. They will tell you that 20,000, 30,000 civilians were tortured and buried there. We do not know the number of victims. People who didn’t want to work with them, who refused to cooperate with them, people who went on strikes to protest, people who did not want to work with the Russians who occupied Mariupol. And this is one example just with this city. And I have a question for you. What about the millions of children?
I will ask you in Russian so that you hear this without delay, what about the millions of children over there? What if we just arranged a ceasefire without understanding what would happen next without understanding what will happen to Ukraine’s security guarantees? What about the millions of children in the occupied territories? What should I tell them? What am I to tell them? What is it I should tell them? What? Whatever? Hey, all of you over there, see ya. And those tens of thousands of people buried there, they were… Is that what we want? Are we ready to forgive them for this? We must at least take the first step. If this is a ceasefire, we must know that there is a security guarantee for the part of Ukraine under our control. We need it so that he will not come back. This is very important.
What do we say to the people who live in those territories? These are millions of people. Did you know that since 2014 in Donetsk, in the Crimea, this is happening in Melitopol as well as in Berdiansk now, they are making all these kids of drafting age go and fight? And if they don’t go, they will be killed. So, you understand what’s happening? That is why a ceasefire, everything I said, what I wish for, and I believe in President Trump’s power to use all of this information to come up with a way to make Ukraine strong. Why am I saying that? I will give you an example. President Trump will be in the same situation as I was in 2019. Precisely the same situation. I want to end the war. We want a lasting piece for Ukraine. We must do this, the ceasefire, exchange people, and then diplomatically return all territories. And we will do this through diplomacy. What will happen next with-
Putin’s plan is to end the occupation of our territory. This is in his sick head and I’m absolutely sure of this. That is why I told you don’t wait for Putin to want to stop the war. Pressure him so that he is forced to stop the war, that’s important.
But anyway, yes, NATO is a strong security guarantee for all the people, for us, part of security guarantee. The second part is the arms aid package, which we will not use. If a ceasefire works, nobody will use the weapons. For what? But it has to stay. But with all due respect to the United States and to the administration, not like before, I don’t want the same situation like we had with Biden.
I ask for sanctions now, please, and weapons now and then we will see. If they start it again, of course, we’ll be happy if you’ll give us more and you will stand with us shoulder to shoulder. Of course, that is right, but, but it’s different when you have weapons. Putin wouldn’t have been able to occupy so much territory.
It was very difficult for us to push him out, but we didn’t have weapons before and that is the same situation. It can be the same situation. I’m just sharing this with you, like I said at the very beginning, I want to be very honest with you and with your audience. Yes, it’s true. If we do not have security guarantees, Putin will come again.
But right now, your idea is that NATO accepts Ukraine, minus the five regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea.
So it is, sorry, that is a start. Secondly, weapons, arms aid package, I’m not ready to discuss this publicly right now. It’s all written down and President Trump might have seen it or not, but we’ve got no secrets from him, yes. But mostly it depends on the willingness of the United States, because some of it will come from the EU, some from the United States, of course, together.
So not just from the United States, no, no, no, we need unity with this package, so the package and sanctions. Yes, sanctions, but I think it’s in the interest of all the smart people to not have Russian energy on the market in general, so he has to stop it. That’s all, it’s fine. American oil, American gas is okay. Why not? And it’s cheaper, so it will be cheaper for the whole world.
The money will go to the United States and I think he will be happy, and the president and your people will be happy, but it’s your decision. I’m just sharing. Yes, and cheaper oil. So Putin won’t have so much money for the war, and that’s it.
So let’s not talk about love today, but could we talk seriously about guaranteeing Russia’s security?
This is what happened when I speak with the Global South, which is trying to balance the two sides because of the history, because of their roots and because of their shared economic interests with Russia in the past. And now, of course, when you talk to them, they are speaking a little bit like you. They’re balancing a little bit. Yeah, a little bit in between, but we will work on it.
But then they all recognize that, that it’s his own big mistake, Putin’s mistake, and that he’s not right. That’s why I said, “No, no. He’s not right, and you have to begin from this.” If you begin at the middle, between Ukraine and Russia, of course, we can speak like this. You are in the middle and say, “Okay, what’s going on? There is a fight. Where is the fight?”
It’s not the fight like in Europe when Napoleon is fighting against somebody in the middle of Europe. No, this is not in the middle of somewhere of the planet. Not the planet, it’s concretely on our land. So one country with one army, one person came to another. That’s it, it’s very clear.
Actually, this is also a security guarantee for the Russians. Frankly, I talked about this many times before. Sorry, I’m speaking figuratively, but as an example, if you were a father who lost his children, a grown man. A grown man, a man, an adult, and the war has ended and he never got justice for real. For example, somebody decides to freeze support. We won’t give you anything.
You can’t fight. You can’t continue, so we stop when we stop without any guarantees, without any support, without financing, without okay. And nobody is held accountable, but the man lost his children. He will not get anything. None of the killers will be in prison. All the sanctions will be removed, and he lost his children, and we have thousands of such people.
Why do you think they will not go to Russia? We’ll find a way and will not kill the Russian soldiers there or somebody there. Why wouldn’t they? It’s human nature. It’s not about us, it’s everyone. Read American writers. Always after any war, if there is no justice for people, there must be punishment for the crime, it is only justice. How come my child was taken away? The war took him.
This is very scary. And even whether it was my son, who was fulfilling his constitutional duty, or simply a missile that struck a civilian child, and if there is no justice and the killers are not punished, why wouldn’t these people come back with hate? They will definitely come back. So when we talk about NATO, NATO is not only stopping Russia.
Do not forget, NATO is stopping us too, because there will not be justice for everyone. We know that NATO does not have the right to solve certain issues with war. NATO is a security alliance, it is protection, not brainwashing. What Putin claims that this is offensive is not true. NATO is a defensive alliance, a security alliance, and it is security for Russia.
For example, if America simply leaves NATO, I believe there is a high likelihood that Donald Trump would do such a thing.
There is no war on the land of any of these NATO countries. I think that is the answer. It works or not. It works politically or militarily, I don’t know, but it works. So without Trump, without the United States of America, there will not be NATO. That is the first, so and you say, “Can we imagine that?” That what?
But during the World War II, without help of the United States, support of your troops, support of your industry. Industrially, militarily, without your money, without your people, Hitler could win, so the United States helped a lot. Of course, Europe, USSR, and of course, everybody fought. Everybody did a lot.
But without the United States, it couldn’t be such. I don’t use the word success, because I think that there is no war which ends successfully because this is a war. Seven figure losses, heavy losses in World War II, millions of people, and that’s why without the United States, security guarantees are not possible.
I mean these security guarantees, which can prevent Russian aggression. Of course, we have security guarantees bilaterally with some countries financing support of our internal military and defending, and humanitarian issues and demining, which is very important, in helping our children in the school networks. By the way, this is a very sensitive point.
How many bomb shelters? How many bomb shelters we built with the partners for the children? And it’s a pity that they are underground, but can you imagine their eyes when they came after COVID? You understand what does it mean COVID, but they had COVID and the war, and together they didn’t see each other for so many years.
And when they saw each other even underground, they were very happy and smiling. So we have such security guarantees, but it’s not enough to prevent. Yes, preventive measures also work to prevent the aggression of Putin.
And together negotiate a ceasefire with strict security guarantees and an agreement will be signed. What will this look like without NATO?
Secondly, it is very important for us that Europe, which is very important for us because we are part of Europe. And not only geographically, geopolitically, but also in the European Union where we will be. For us, it is very important that Europe also has a voice. It’s the second thing. It won’t be long because Europe will be looking at us and we’ll be looking at Trump.
And by the way, I now see that when I talk about something with Donald Trump, whether we meet in person or we just have a call, all the European leaders always ask, “How was it?” This shows the influence of Donald Trump, and this has never happened before with an American president. I tell you from my experience, this also gives you confidence that he can stop this war.
That is why we and Trump come first and Europe will support Ukraine’s position, because they understand that Ukraine has every right to have its voice heard in this because we are at war. Trump and I will come to an agreement. And then if, and I am sure that he can offer strong security guarantees together with Europe, and then we can talk to the Russians. That’s right.
Not just three of us sitting down at once, and you still talk to me like that? Do you know how? As if Putin wants to sit down and talk, but Ukraine does not. This is not true.
I have a dream here that the three of you will get together in a room and make peace, and I want to understand what it looks like. What security guarantees look like that will satisfy Ukraine, that will satisfy Russia.
You can correct me on that. Yes, Ukraine had security guarantees. The Budapest Memorandum, nuclear weapons are the security guarantees that Ukraine had. Ukraine had nuclear weapons. I do not want to characterize it as good or bad. Today, the fact that we do not have them is bad. Why? Because this is war.
Today we are at war because you have unleashed the hands of a nuclear power. A nuclear power is fighting against us, against Ukraine, and doing what it wants. By the way, even you are now talking about ceasefire, just a ceasefire. Maybe give flowers to Putin, maybe to say, “Thank you so much for these years. That was a great part of my life.” No, we are not just ready for this.
Why? The Budapest Memorandum, nuclear weapons, this is what we had. Ukraine used them for protection. This does not mean that someone attacked us. That doesn’t mean that we would have used it. We had that opportunity. These were our security guarantees. Why am I talking about this in detail? Because if you take the Budapest Memorandum, by the way, I discussed this with President Trump.
We have not finished this conversation yet. We will continue it. Regarding the Budapest Memorandum, the Budapest Memorandum included security guarantees for Ukraine at first, three, three. The most important security guarantors for Ukraine, three strategic friends and partners of Ukraine. This was in agreement. United States of America, Russia, Britain, France, and China joined.
There were five states that these are not even security guarantees. We now understand that this is not a guarantee of security, because on the one hand, these are security guarantees, but there was an English word, as far as I understand, assurance. It is translated as assurance, assurance, right? And in Russian, it’ll be and what assurance?
That is give up nuclear weapons because you were under pressure of the US and Russia for Ukraine to give them up. These two powers were exerting pressure. These two states negotiated to ensure that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine agreed. These are the largest states. This is the nuclear five that does not even provide security guarantees.
Now we just need to find these people, and we just need to put in jail all of those who frankly invented all this. So confidence, assurance, assurance that Ukraine will be territorially integral with its sovereignty. It was a piece of paper. If you are curious, by the way, that after occupying part of our Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine sent diplomats three times.
I don’t think I remember, three times within a few years, we sent letters to all security guarantors, to all members of the Budapest Memorandum. What did they send? That what was written on the piece of paper, consultations, Ukraine holds consultations. If it’s territorial, integrity is violated and everyone should be in consultation. Everyone must come.
Everyone must meet urgently, USA, Britain, Russia, France, China. Did anyone come, you ask? No. Did anyone reply to these letters, official letters? They are all recorded by diplomats. Did anyone conduct consultations? No, and why not? They didn’t give a fuck. This is understandable in Russian, that as Russia didn’t give a damn, neither did all the other security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
None of them gave a damn about this country, these people, these security guarantees, et cetera. We take a break, this will be a Budapest Memorandum. The last time with me, imagine how many years it was with me in February 2022? In February 2022, the war began, a full-scale war. Letters for consultations have been sent. No one answers. Next, we are taking a break from the Budapest Memorandum.
The question is simple about Budapest. Can we trust this? No. Whichever country out of these five sat at the negotiating table, just a piece of paper. Believe me, we will save you. No. Another, this is a train. This is a train with wastepaper, with security guarantees, which Ukraine has been riding for many years. The second car on this train is the Minsk agreements.
The Normandy Format and the Minsk agreements where it was written, where the signatories were, the United States of America was no longer there. I understand that Obama was here at the time, and as far as I know, I think they were simply not interested in what happened to Ukraine, and where it was in general, where it was located. Well, somewhere there, part of something.
People, well, people and let it be, let it be with these people. The United States simply did not participate. In the Minsk agreements, there are no claims to the US because they were not guarantors. Where is the claim? A step back. 2008, Bucharest, everyone has already learned from the Budapest Memorandum. Bucharest, 2008.
Bucharest, Mr. Bush, President of the United States, Republican says that Ukraine should be in NATO. This is the voice of Republicans. Check it out, Ukraine should be in NATO. Everybody’s looking at the US always, all in favor. Who is against? Merkel, so she opposes and she forced everyone not to give Ukraine an invitation to join NATO because that would be a step.
Seriously, Republicans were in favor, the US was in favor, because Republicans and Bush were not afraid of anyone. They were not afraid of anyone, and they knew that Ukraine rightly wanted to join NATO. She chooses so. And what is the question? Well, people made their choice. Well, and the Russians will not look that way. That was not the case then. Why? Because the Russians were different.
Next, Minsk, we didn’t succeed. After the Minsk agreements, as I told you, hundreds of meetings were held. I have had hundreds of meetings since 2019. We could not think about a ceasefire. A ceasefire is our offer, this is not somebody’s suggestion. This is mine, I would like. I wanted to. In Ukraine, society was divided. Not everyone wanted to, half did not want to.
Half were against, half were in favor. Some of them shouted, “Do not believe it.” Some of them shouted, “Believe it.” I am the president of Ukraine. I was given a mandate of trust by 70% of the population to take appropriate steps and I made them. This is not a joke, we’ll just sit the three of us. I am simply telling you what is. This is how can I tell you?
These meetings must be serious and prepared, and prepared with those who want peace. Ukraine wants peace, US wants peace. We have to sit down with Trump, and that is 100%, first and foremost, number one. Moreover, he told me on the phone that he is waiting for us to meet, and there will be an official visit. And my visit would be the first or one of the first to him.
And for him, this topic is very important. I know that he has his own matters, American issues, I understand. I heard his election program, but regarding international affairs, I think our issue is one of the most pressing issues for President Trump. Therefore, I believe very much I trust his words, and I hope we will meet again. We need to prepare.
We have many plans to build on, and they exist and they are supported by many countries, but we need his vision. He needs to look at all these details, but his vision, please, because he can stop Putin because Putin is afraid of him. That’s a fact, but Trump is a president of a democratic country, and he does not come for life. He is not Putin. He will not come for 25 years.
He will come for his term. Please, tell me. Well, for example, he came for four years and for the fifth year, Putin came with a war. Will it make Trump feel better that there was no war during his time, and that Ukraine was destroyed after him? Why destroyed? Putin is whoever, a killer, whoever, but not a fool. He will be prepared. He knows our mistakes.
He understands how we defeated his army after the invasion began. He realized that this was not a Soviet war, and that this would not happen with us. He will prepare. He will let everything into arms production. He will have lots of weapons, and there will be a very large army. And you think that after such humiliation, four years without a war, he did not finish us.
He will return and fight only against Ukraine. He will destroy everything around. And if you say there is a risk that President Trump will withdraw from NATO, for example, this is a decision of the United States. I’m simply saying that if it does, Putin will destroy Europe. Calculate the size of army in Europe.
We do not want any war. We want to stop the Russians and they invite North Korean soldiers. Invited. Their faces are burned. They themselves burn their faces. Those who cannot escape, injured or killed. There’s a video. Everything I’m telling you, there is evidence of this so that they are not recognizable. Right? What does it mean? It’s out of values which share Europe. Europe counts. It means that those guys, they don’t count. [foreign language 01:38:54] It’s count. Yes. They don’t count the number of people. That is the answer.
Can they move more? Yes. Can they move dozens of thousands? Yes, because we see what they have. Last year, for example, Europe gave us 1 million artillery rounds. We produced a lot ourselves, but they gave us initiative. It was initiative. 1 million artillery rounds and of 155 and et cetera. We produce more but North Korea gave Putin 3.7. Just gave him. So he also has a deficit for today. It means he needs what? He needs time.
We don’t need gifts from the United States. It will be very good for your industry, for the United States. We will put money there. Russian money, not Ukrainian, not European. Russian money, Russian assets. They have to pay for this. We will put it and we will make it. This is one of security guarantees. Yes, of course. Because this is a military guarantee. Yes. But then the second you said that energy price and a lot of sanctions on products and the Russian shadow fleet and etc. That is the second answer we spoke about before. Yes put more sanctions on them. More sanctions. It’s okay, but not to take off sanctions.
And that those who lost, we will never forget in a matter of time. But when you gave us NATO, I just said this means that after a while, everything I said about NATO. After a while, Ukraine will not go against Russia and Russia will not go against Ukraine because you are in NATO. I am just saying is not that a compromise? NATO is a compromise. This is not just a security guarantee, in my opinion. Look, when rockets were attacking Israel and Israel is not in NATO. NATO countries, aircrafts were deployed. The air defense worked, operated by different Middle Eastern countries.
These are also security guarantees. And by the way, Israel has nuclear weapons. So why do they need NATO when in fact they have more than NATO has? The American, British and French aviation stepped in. There was ADA. I don’t remember from Jordan. Listen, thousands of missiles were shot down that way. What is this? So it’s a guarantee of safety. It’s just that it’s not called NATO. Is some Uncle Vova irritated by the word NATO? There’s a problem with the word and I think he’s simply irritated by people who are alive and living here.
And that’s not love. You are mistaken. He does not love his people. He loves his inner circle. It’s only a small part of the people. He doesn’t love them. Why? I’ll explain. You cannot send your people to another land knowing that they will die. Children, my daughter, she is 20 years old. For me, This is a child. She’s already an adult of course, but she’s a child. The boys he sends are 18 years old. They are children. He sends them. It’s not that fascists came to his land and he needs to defend it. He came to ours and he sent them Chechnya. He sent them Syria, he sent them Africa. He sent them Georgia.
He sent them Moldova. Transnistria, that was before him. Fine, we can leave that aside. He has enough sins of his own. And then there’s Ukraine, the largest part. 788,000 killed or wounded Russians. He calls them all Russians. Even those who don’t know how to speak Russian on his territory of Russia, everything they’ve enslaved. Yes. Proud [foreign language 01:48:48]. So I wonder, is that love? What love is this? And for what? Does he love his people? No. Does he love his land? His country is bigger than America. How much land do you need? America is huge. America is simply an outstanding country. Outstanding country.
Russia is bigger. Well, just bigger. So ask yourself, does he love them? What is he doing and what does he love? Do you think he’s been everywhere in his Russia? It’s impossible to get around it. He hasn’t been everywhere. He just hasn’t.
Yes, of course he will. Of course the same about me. I’m not comparing myself with him. I’m just where it is difficult for people, I have to come. The next question is very simple. Region, Kursk region. The operation there. Was Putin in Kursk during four months? No.
Yes a leader should go to the front of a war. That said, America has waged wars all across the world. The war in Afghanistan and Iraq costs $9 trillion and killed over a million people. War is hell. And just because war is waged in terrible ways that it is does not mean the leader does not love their country. But I take your point. I once again have a dream that even if there’s hate, that you sit down with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and you find a way to peace. Let me ask you a question. What do you think?
Will there ever be a day when the Ukrainian people forgive the Russian people and both peoples will travel back and forth again and marry each other, rekindle and form friendships? Will there be such a time in the future?
Apologizing is not easy. They know that they were the aggressors, they were guilty. They do not look for compromise in history. Compromise in itself buys time. And they understand this. There are convicted murderers condemned both historically and by their own people. Reparations have been paid and security guarantees have been established by the way. And all this is done. And when all this is done and recognized, in any case, people develop relations with each other. That’s clear. But it can only happen the way it always has, always has in history. Russia will have to apologize. It will.
This will happen because they are guilty. They’re guilty. And as I told you, the guilty are different. Both those who participated and those who remain silent because silence is also about participating, in my opinion.
I understand the prices and et cetera. Economic questions and you have the questions with other things.
For me, the truth is very right things. What’s going on really in the battlefield, what’s going on really with Putin and Russia, what he really wants and that is just to have it. Before any decision, you have to be at the same level of information. Really we need him to know everything from us, from you, from people in Ukraine, from people around who are really afraid. Afraid that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war, afraid that he will come back with his aggression.
I just don’t want to… People need to know details. For example, Georgia, which was headed towards the EU and NATO completely turns towards Russia regardless of the fact that they have frozen conflicts. They have in Abkhazia what we have with Donbas, which is controlled by militant rebels. Abkhazia is not developing. It’s just a very beautiful part of Georgia that has died. And if you have the opportunity, then go there someday. You will understand. It simply died because Putin wanted to. He wanted not to allow them to develop because a frozen conflict means that you will not be accepted in the EU and certainly will not be accepted into NATO.
Because right now, yes, they do not take you because of a frozen conflict. And this is what Putin did. It’s very important for him not to lose this influence. That is he turned back Georgia, young people, students, everyone leaves. And this is a fact. Georgia is quite small and they will leave. They want to live in Europe. They want to develop. Somebody in the United States, somebody in Europe, somebody in the EU, somebody in Britain. He will now fight for the Moldovan parliament. This is his second step. You will see in April what happens. You will see he will start turning Moldova away from Europe.
Although they want to go there, he does not care. They will be a pro-Russian party and they will do something with the current president because she has won the elections. She is pro-European but he will turn this back. The next steps are completely clear. He will do everything wherever he has lost influence, where there was influence of the Soviet Union. He’ll turn it back as much as possible. And we understand at what price. You have seen Syria, you saw these tortures. What we saw in [inaudible 02:02:19], what we saw everywhere we came and where our territories were occupied.
In Syria, the same happened. There were a thousand people there. And you have seen it. Scientists were found. Doctors were found. It’s clear that any people are capable of generating their own opinion. So their skills developed society, everyone who can express an opinion, everyone who can shape the independence and maturity of society. Such people are not needed. And he wants this in Ukraine. And therefore everyone should understand that Ukraine is like a large wall. From that Europe, and if God willing, President Trump does not withdraw from NATO. Because again, I believe that this is the biggest risk.
I think two steps. Two steps that Putin would like to see is a weak NATO and this without Trump. And a weak Ukraine, which cannot survive on the battlefield, simply cannot survive and prevent me from building a strong relationship with Trump. I think these two steps, leaving NATO and Ukraine’s weakness will lead to a large-scale war, which Putin will wage on all the territories of that post-Soviet Europe. I mean Soviet Europe, not post-Soviet, but post-World War II period. That is Soviet era Europe, in order to completely control everything there. This is what he will do. And besides this, this will happen in any case.
Even if the US is thinking about leaving NATO, this war will affect the United States because North Korea is the first sign. North Korean skills, North Korean knowledge, which they are now gaining from this war. These include mastering new technologies, large-scale drones, missiles, how it works, the kind of technological war we have today, cyber war, etc. All these skills, Korea will bring home and scale up in that region. And this will be a risk for the Pacific region. Security, first and foremost. For Japan and for South Korea, they will face these risks a hundred percent and it will be clear that Taiwan will also have to face them.
Without this, it is impossible. This is already happening. This is already happening. Therefore, I think that President Trump has all power to stop Putin and give Ukraine strong security guarantees.
You fight for your life. Your life. But we need to understand that first there is a war. And then-
On the contrary, military tax is used for war. You need to take money somewhere. This, by the way, is about the fact that the US gave us a lot and Europe too, but compared to how much we needed for the war, this is not all. As for military salaries, you know that we could not pay the salaries of a million strong army. We could not pay it using the money from our partners. These are all expenses. This is all the money that the country and people have accumulated. You can’t do anything. I really want to reduce taxes. I will tell you frankly, I really want to.
Well, I think that the whole new tax system, new deregulation, new steps, new reforms, all this will be after the war. Although there is something to brag about, this is proof. And this is a document because if you want to get a candidacy for European Union, you must implement the appropriate number of reforms. We do everything. During the war, we voted for many reforms, including anti-corruption, banking reforms, land reforms, major reforms. We started a large privatization and the war did not stop us. Yes, it slowed down, but we went through a lot.
I believe that elections will take place immediately after the end of martial law. This is according to the law or members of the parliament need to get together and change legislation, which will be very difficult to do because society is against it. Why society against it? It is understandable why. Because we want elections that we want to trust. 8.5 million people went abroad. The infrastructure needs to be created for these millions of people to vote. Millions of people in the occupied territories. I’m not even talking about the occupation of 2014. I’m talking about the occupation right now. What to do with these people? This is a difficult question. And one of the most unfair ones is how to vote without having a million soldiers. It is impossible.
We need to think about how to change the system if the elections are held in times of war, change the legislation, which should include changes to the voting system, to think about online voting. Everyone is afraid because of certain attacks like cyber attacks and so on, but we need to think about it. I really think that it’s possible that we can end the war in 2025.
If something has not been done, it means that it is on the way. But in principle, all this exists and there is no such system as we have in Europe. To say that we do not have corruption would be lying. We just talk about it openly. We are genuinely fighting against it. Look, we have sitting in our prison, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who is the most influential Ukrainian oligarch since independence and no one could do anything about him. The United States of America wanted to have Kolomoyskyi and they went to great lengths because of money laundering, etc. There are criminal cases in the United States, I think in Delaware, something like that. Neither Europe could do anything about it. That is, we did a lot with oligarchs. Russian oligarchs, sanctions were imposed, they were thrown out. Some of them fled the state, but they are all under sanctions. We exchanged some of them for our soldiers such as Medvedchuk to whose daughter Putin is godfather.
That is, we fought against the strongest influential oligarchs, which are, and were in Ukraine and we eliminated a lot of corruption. Of course corruption exists in everyday life. It exists. But institutionally, I am sure that Ukraine will overcome all this. This takes a little time. I would say honestly, that listen, what we call corruption and in some state of the world it’s called lobbyism, but this does not mean that there is no corruption there.
Let’s take the aid you mentioned during the war. First of all, we have no money. We have no money except for the war. We received weapons from the United States of America, from Europe. If we take for example money from the United States of America during all this time of the war, around 177 billion have been voted for or decided upon, 177 billion. Let’s be honest, we have not received half of this money.
The second point, which is very important, just as an example, is it corruption? The first question, whose corruption? This is the second. Here is just one small example for you. When the United States began to transfer US weapons, it was American money, but American weapons, money for these weapons. As a president, I had cargo jets, not in Ukraine. Because of the war, we moved them very quickly to Europe. We had cargo. We have good cargo fleet, very good because of Antonov. So I asked American side to grant me the opportunity because our jets are at another airfield and I asked America to give me the opportunity to use our jets for transfer, not to pay a lot. To whom? To your companies, to American companies. No, I didn’t get this opportunity. My jets stayed put and the United States jets, cargo jets moved these weapons. But everywhere you have to spend money so we could get more weapons, but we have to pay for this very expensive fleet. My question, is this corruption or not? Or lobbyism? What is it?
Do you honestly think anyone could steal weapons by the truckload when we ourselves don’t have enough on the front lines? And yet we have to provide proof to defend ourselves because when there’s an abundance of such misinformation, distrust starts to grow. And you’re right, people listen to various media outlets, see this and lose faith in you. In the end, you lose trust and with it you lose support. Therefore, believe me, we are fighting more against disinformation than against particular cases. Although I still emphasize once again at the everyday level, such things are still important. We catch these people and we fight them.
Let’s take the war. We are very grateful for Starlink. It has helped. We used it after Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure. There were problems with the internet, et cetera, with connection. We used Starlink both at the front and in kindergartens. It was used in schools, it helped children. We used it in various infrastructure and it helped us very much. And I would very much like Elon to be on our side as much as possible to support us. And yes, I’m grateful to him for Starlink. Truly, I am. First of all, so that our guys have a connection, and children too. And I am really grateful to him for that. I think I would like him to come to Ukraine, to talk to people here and to look around and so on.
It was for example, before the war, I think, yes, it was before the war, I had a meeting, yes, with President Trump. It was in 2019. I just wanted to go for a run early in the morning because I really wanted to exercise. And they, those tall bodyguards, a lot of them, they decided to join me, but I couldn’t really do it because they were in suits and I was in sportswear. I said, no, I can’t. It’s always funny. I don’t want to disturb anybody and cause anyone problems with me. And that’s why if he will invite me, I will come.
Also, probably my parents, they are an authority for me. Beyond that, I view it more as a system. No one can control the president. Therefore, we have oligarchs who either fled or are in prison because oligarchs usually control cash flows and people and influence politics. And we have concrete examples with sentences. They are not just under house arrest. Not just that there are some judgments under which their assets were frozen or sanctions were imposed. There are specific people who are behind bars. I think this is the answer regarding the influence. Would they like to influence me in the same way as any president of Ukraine because finance and cash flows always influence politics? Well, at least they want to do this. This is regarding the influence and other people on the vertical, they perform tasks as my managers. Andrii, you mentioned is one of those managers. Well, I am glad that I have such people. Well, probably there is nothing else to add here.
A lot of support will come, I think from USA business investment, not as direct aid to us, just to the private sector and resources. And I mentioned this to President Trump and to some European leaders who are our key strategic partners that will be happy, especially with the Americans, will be happy to sign these contracts and engage in joint investments in many areas. And I think we can develop oil, gas, green energy, including solar power. And we already have the resources. We can invest money into this. We have oil reserves in the Black Sea that we can exploit and we need your expertise and the investment of your companies. We have gold and uranium reserves, the largest in Europe by the way, which is also very important. For example, Russia has pushed France out of Africa. They urgently need uranium, which we have. So we are ready to open up for investments and this will give us of course, opportunities, jobs for people, revenue. I don’t want cheap labor, honestly. What I truly want, especially after the war, to open up for those people…
I think the most important thing is to remain open and not change our direction because culturally aligning with Russia, it’s one idea, while aligning with Europe is another. Our people have chosen Europe. It’s their choice, it’s our choice, the choice of our nation, and I think it’s very important.
And honestly, I think that the highest approval rating of the president of the United States, of Trump now is in Ukraine. People really believe that he can truly help bring peace. Now they have faith, faith that he can make it happen, that he can support Ukraine and he can stop Putin and that he will make sure Putin doesn’t get everything he wants. This is very important, and it’s why we believe that we must not lose this opportunity.
First, I got a bunch of questions about this, so let me chat about the topic of language and let’s say the mechanics of multilingual conversation. Perhaps the details are interesting to some people. It also allows me to reflect back on the puzzle of it in this episode and what I can do better next time. I already explained in the intro the symbolic, historic, and geopolitical complexity of the choice of language in the conversation with President Zelenskyy. As I said, the Russian language is one that the president speaks fluently and was his primary language for most of his life. I speak Russian fluently as well. It’s the only common language we are both fluent in, so any other combination of languages required an interpreter, including when I spoke English. He did need an interpreter when I spoke English, and just like I was, was visibly encumbered and annoyed by the process of interpretation. This is why I tried to speak in Russian to the president instead of English, so that he can directly understand me without an interpreter.
I’m willing to take the hit for that, as I am for everything else. I’m not trying to protect myself, I’m trying to do whatever is best for the conversation for understanding, though it has been getting harder and harder to stay open, vulnerable and raw in public while the swarms of chanting internet mobs stop by with their torches and their color-coded hats, flags, frogs, pronouns, and hashtags.
Anyway, there is a lot of nuanced aspects of the conversational language that I would like to explain here. I’ll try to be brief. I can recommend a lot of books on this topic of language and communication that reveal just how amazing this technology of language is. For example, for a good overview, I recommend John McWhorter’s books and especially his lecture series for the Great Courses on language. There are several. In the Story of Human Language series, he gives a great discussion on spoken language versus written language, and that spoken language often relaxes the rules of communication. It uses shorter packets of words, loads in a bunch of subtle cues and meanings, all of which, like I’m trying to describe, are lost when there’s an interpreter in the loop.
Let me also describe some relevant characteristics of my peculiar language “abilities” in quotes. I was never good at speaking. I listen to think and understand better than I speak. For me, this is true for both English and Russian, but it is especially true for Russian. The Russian language allows for much more room for wit, nonstandard terms of phrase, metaphors, humor, rhyme, musicality, and let’s say deforming of words that create a lot of room for creativity and how meaning and emotion are conveyed. You could do the same in English, but it’s harder. I actually find that Brits are sometimes very good at this. One of my favorite humans to talk to is Douglas Murray. Setting the content of the conversation aside, the sheer linguistic brilliance and wit of dialogue with Douglas is a journey in itself. I think Christopher Hitchens had the same, and many others, like I said, especially Brits. Anyway, I’m able to detect and understand a lot of dynamism and humor in the Russian language, but I’m slow to generate it in part because I just don’t practice. I have very few Russian-speaking friends. Funny enough, most of them are Ukrainian, but they speak with me and each other in Russian. But of course, as I mentioned, this is slowly changing due to the war. But I tried to speak to the president in Russian so he would avoid needing an interpreter as much as possible.
One of the things I want to improve for next time is to make sure I get very good equipment for interpretation and arrange for an interpreter I trust to be exceptionally good for the dynamism and the endurance of a three-hour conversation in the style that I tried to do. Just to give you some behind-the-scenes details of the experience, equipment-wise, funny enough, it’s not actually so trivial to set up wireless connections from us, the two people talking, to the interpreter, and then back to us in a way that’s super robust and has clean audio. The audio I had in my ear from the interpreter had a loud background noise, so the whole time I’m hearing a shh sound with the voice of the interpreter coming in very quietly. What a wonderful experience this whole life is, frankly. Plus, his translation was often incomplete, at least for me, so I had to put together those puzzle pieces continuously. But again, it worked out. And hopefully our constant switching of languages and having a meta-discussion about language provided good insights as to the complexity of this fight for a nation’s identity and sovereignty that Ukraine has gone through.
Behind the scenes, off-mic on a personal level, President Zelenskyy was funny, thoughtful, and just a kind-hearted person. And really, the whole team were just great people. It was an experience I’ll never forget.
After the conversation was recorded, the next challenge was to translate all of this and overdub it and do it super quickly. These words I’m speaking now have to be translated and dubbed into Ukrainian and Russian. ElevenLabs were really helpful here, especially in bringing the president’s voice to life in different languages. But even more than that, they’re just an amazing team who inspired me and everyone involved. Please go support ElevenLabs. They are a great company and great people. The translation is separate from the text to speech and was done in part by AI and a lot by human. This is where the fact that we had constant switching between three languages was a real challenge. There are six transition mappings that have to be done: English to Ukrainian and Russian, Ukrainian to English and Russian, and then Russian to English and Ukrainian continuously, sentence by sentence, sometimes word by word. And each combination of language to language translation is best done by a person who specializes in that kind of mapping. It was all a beautiful mess, all of it.
And on top of all that, great translation is super hard. For example, I’ve read and listened to a lot of Dostoevsky both English and Russian and studied the process of how these books are translated by various translators. You can spend a week discussing how to translate a single important sentence well. Obviously, in this situation, we don’t have weeks, we have hours for the whole thing.
One of the things I regret is not putting enough time into the hiring and selecting great translators, from Russian and Ukrainian to English especially. I think translation is an art, so getting a good translator that works well with us is a process that needs more time and effort. I’ll be doing that more this month.
By the way, we have a small but amazing team. If you want to join us, go to lexfridman.com/hiring. If you’re passionate, work hard, and everyone on the team loves working with you, then we’ll do some epic stuff together. Would love to work with you. Like I said about ElevenLabs. There are a few things is awesome in life as being able to work hard with an amazing team towards a mission all of us are passionate about.
Anyway, I’ll probably be doing a few more interviews in the Russian language. I do have a lingering goal of interviewing the Mathematician Grigori Perelman, but there’s also others. I will also work on improving my whole pipeline both equipment-wise and interpreter-wise in doing these conversations in other languages because there are many that I would like to do in languages I don’t speak at all like Chinese, Mandarin or Spanish, Arabic, Hindi, Portuguese, French, German. I see language as both a barrier for communication and a portal into understanding the spirit of a people connected by that language. It’s all a weird and beautiful puzzle, and I’m just excited to get the chance to explore it.
All right, I got a question on how I prepare for podcasts. This has evolved and expanded more and more over time. There are some podcasts that I prepare hundreds of hours for. In AI terms, let’s say, first, I’m training a solid background model by consuming as much variety on the topic as possible. A lot of this comes down to picking high-signal sources, whether it’s blogs, books, podcasts, YouTube videos, X accounts, and so on.
For this conversation with President Zelenskyy, for example, since February 2022 I’ve spoken with hundreds of people on the ground, I’ve read Kindle or audiobook, about 10 books fully, and then I skimmed about 20 more. And I don’t mean books about Zelenskyy, although he does appear in some of them, I mean books where this conversation was fully in the back of my mind as I’m reading the book. For example, I read Red Famine by Anne Applebaum. It’s about Holodomor. Does it directly relate to Zelenskyy? Not on the surface, no. But it continues to weave the fabric of my understanding of a people, of a history of the region.
But it’s really important for me to read books from various perspectives. And I’m always trying to calculate the bias under which the author operates and adjusting for that in my brain as I integrate the information. For example, Anne Applebaum’s book, Gulag, is very different from Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Gulag Archipelago. The former is a rigorous, comprehensive, historical account, the latter is a literary, psychological, and personal portrait of Soviet society. Both I think are extremely valuable. On the bias front, for example, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer is a good example. It is full of bias, but he was there, and to me, he has written probably one of the greatest if not the greatest book on the Third Reich ever. But like I said, it has a lot of inaccuracies and biases. You can read about them online if you like. But my job in this case and in all cases is to adjust based on my understanding of the authors’ biases and take the wisdom from the text where it could be found and putting the inaccuracies aside into the proverbial dustbins of history.
As I’m reading, I’m writing down my thoughts as they come up, always digging for some deeper insight about human nature. If I’m at my computer, I’ll write it down in Google Doc, sometimes use Notion or Obsidian. If I’m not on my computer, I’ll use Google Keep. For example, if I’m listening to an audiobook and I’m running along the river, if a good idea comes to mind, I’ll stop, think for a few seconds, and then do a speech to text note in Google Keep. By the way, listening to audiobook at 1X speed. Old school. And eventually I get a gigantic pile of thoughts and notes that I look over to refresh my memory. But for the most part, I just throw them out. It’s a background model building process. By the way, LLMs are increasingly becoming useful here for organization purposes, but have not yet been useful, at least for me, and I do try a lot for insight extraction or insight generation purposes.
I should mention that my memory for specific facts, names, days, quotes is terrible. What I remember well is high-level ideas. That’s just how my brain works, for better or for worse. I realize that sometimes forgetting all of the details and the words needed to express them makes me sound simplistic and even unprepared. I’m not, but that’s life. We have to accept our flaws and roll with them.
Aside from books, I also listen to a lot of podcasts and YouTube videos where people are talking about the topic. For the President Zelenskyy episode, I listened probably to hundreds of hours of content from his supporters and from his critics; from all sides. Again, I choose who to listen to based not on their perspective, but based on SNR, signal-to-noise ratio. If I’m regularly getting insights from a person, I will continue listening to them whether I agree or disagree.
In the end, this turns out to be a lot of hours of prep, but to say that it’s X hours per episode is not accurate because a lot of this preparation transfers from one guest to another even when there’s an insane level of variety in the guests. We’re all humans, after all. There is a thread that connects all of it together somehow if you look closely enough.
For more technical guests in STEM fields, I’ll read papers, a lot of papers, and also technical blog posts and technical tweet threads. This is a very different process. For AI or CS-related topics, I will run other people’s code, I will write my own, implement stuff from scratch. If it’s a software company, I’ll use their tools and software relevant. But in the actual conversation, I constantly am searching for simple but profound insights at various levels of abstraction. Sometimes this means asking a trivial question in hopes of uncovering the non-trivial, counterintuitive but fundamental idea that opens the door to a whole new way of looking at the field.
And actually, every guest is their own puzzle. Like preparing for Rick Rubin was me listening to hundreds of songs he produced and even learning some on guitar like Hurt by Johnny Cash. Preparing for the Cursor Team episode meant obviously I had to use Cursor fully for several weeks; all of its features. I switched completely from VS Code to Cursor. For Paul Rosolie, round two especially, I literally went deep into the jungle with Paul and almost died fully taking the leap toward adventure with him.
When it gets close to the conversation, I’ll start working on the actual interview questions and notes. And there I’m asking myself what am I personally curious about? I love podcasts. I’m a big fan of many, many podcasts, and so I ask myself, “What would I want this person to explain on a podcast? And maybe what aspect of their thought process or their humanity would I want to be surfaced or have the chance to be surfaced?”
In the actual conversation, I always try to put my ego aside completely and do whatever it takes to have a good conversation and serve the listener. This means asking questions, simply trying to define terms and give context if needed, being open-minded, vulnerable, curious, and challenging the guests when needed. Despite the claims on the internet, I do ask a lot of challenging questions, including follow-ups, but always with empathy. I don’t need to be right. I don’t need to signal my moral or intellectual superiority to anyone. I try to do the opposite actually, because I want the guest to open up. And I trust the intelligence of the listener to see for themselves if the guest is full of shit or not, to detect the flaws and the strengths of how the guest thinks or who they are deep down. A lot of times when interviewers grill the guest, it doesn’t reveal much except give a dopamine hit to the echo chambers who hate the guest.
As I said in the intro, I believe the line between good and evil does run through the heart of every man. The resulting conversations are sometimes a failure, sometimes because they are too short, sometimes because the chemistry was just not working, sometimes because I fucked it up. I try to take risks, give it everything I got and enjoy the rollercoaster of it all no matter what. And as I said, I trust the listener to put it all together and I trust the critic to tear it apart. And I love you all for it.
All right, I got a bit of a fun question. It’s a long one. Delian, cool name, wrote in saying he spotted me out in the wild and had a question about it. He wrote, “I saw Lex working at the Detroit Airport between flights. I hesitated and ultimately decided not to interrupt since he was in focus mode.” True. “Lex had his headphones, earbuds on,” listening to brown noise, “Microsoft’s surface propped up at eye level, Kinesis Advantage keyboard on the table. The use of Microsoft Windows is surprising, but it has been discussed in the past.” True. “The ergonomics of the setup surface at eye level means that Lex cares about his health. But the anomalously large Kinesis advantage keyboard seems like such a burden to lug around airports. I cannot help but ask why is it that Lex is going through the hassle to bring this absolutely large keyboard with him as carry-on? It barely fits in a backpack. Carrying it around must be necessary for Lex for some reason.” I love the puzzle of this, that you’re trying to think through this. “The pain of lugging this tool around must be much smaller than the problem it solves for it? What problem does this keyboard solve? What makes it necessary at the airport? Productivity? Health? RSI?”
Good questions. Thank you, Delia. Great question. It made me smile, so I thought I’d answer. I remember that day. There was something else about that day, aside from the keyboard that I miss, so I am filled with a melancholy feeling that is appropriate for the holiday season. Let me try to set the melancholy feeling aside, answer a question about my computer setup when I’m traveling. Whether I’m going to SF, Boston, Austin, London, or the front in Ukraine, I am always bringing the Kinesis keyboard. I don’t have RSI or any other health issues of that kind that I’m aware of, even though I’ve been programming, playing guitar, doing all kinds of combat sports my whole life, all of which put my hands and fingers in a lot of precarious positions and situations. For that reason, and in general, ergonomics have never been a big concern for me. I can work on a crappy chair and a table, sleep on the floor. It’s all great. I’m happy with all of it.
Why Kinesis? Which, by the way, is right here. I had to think about it. Your question actually made me reflect. And I was hoping as I’m answering it the truth will come off on many levels. It is true that I’m more productive with it. I can type and correct mistakes very fast compared to a regular keyboard, both in natural language typing and in programming. Fast enough, I think, where it feels like I can think freely without the physical bottlenecks and constraints of fingers moving. The bit rate in Neuralink parlance is high enough for me to not feel like there is cognitive friction of any kind.
But the real answer may be the deeper, more honest answer or something else. I’ve used the Kinesis keyboard for over 20 years, so maybe it’s like one of those love stories where a guy and a girl love each other and you try to quit because it doesn’t quite work, but every time you leave, you ask yourself, “Why?” And then you realize that when you’re together, your life is just full of simple joys, so what’s the point of leaving? What’s the point of life if not to keep close to you the things that bring you joy, Delia? Like this keyboard, it brings me joy. It’s a bad metaphor, over anthropomorphized perhaps, but I never promised a good one. I’m like a cheap motel on a road trip; low quality is part of the charm. I do have some good motel stories for another time. This does not feel like the appropriate time. All that said, to disagree with myself, I did use Emacs also for over 20 years, and in a single week recently switched to VS Code and then Cursor and never looked back. Take my romantic nature with a grain of salt.
Yes, eventually I’ll have to leave, but for now, you’ll keep finding me on occasion in a random airport somewhere listening to brown noise, writing away the hours on this Kinesis keyboard. Now, if you see me without it, maybe it’ll give you the same change of melancholy feeling I feel now in looking back to that airport in Detroit.
Anyway, more about my travel setup, if anyone’s curious. I usually do travel with a Windows laptop, but I am mostly using Linux on it through WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux. And in some cases, I’m dual booting Linux and Windows. I also need to be able to video edit, so on a longer trips, I usually have a bigger laptop with a bigger screen, lots of memory, good CPU, good GPU. All of that helps with video editing on Adobe Premiere. In general, I’m extremely minimalist except for the few, let’s call them the sentimental things, like all my podcast recording equipment fits into a small suitcase. I try to keep it as simple as possible. Thank you for the question, and see you at the next airport.
All right, I think it’s time to bring things to close. I’d like to give a big thanks to you for giving me your time and your support over the years. It means the world. If you want to get in touch with me, go to lexfridman.com/contact. There you can give feedback, ask questions, request guests for the podcast, or submit the Coffee with Lex form if you just want to chat with me over a cup of coffee. I’ll be traveling across the world a bunch this year, from Europe to South America and more, so it would be cool to do some small meetups and meet some interesting people. This has been a journey of a lifetime. Thank you for everything. Onto the next adventure. I love you all.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 3:29 – Introductory words from Lex
- 13:55 – Language
- 23:44 – World War II
- 40:32 – Invasion on Feb 24, 2022
- 47:07 – Negotiating Peace
- 1:07:24 – NATO and security guarantees
- 1:20:17 – Sitting down with Putin and Trump
- 1:39:47 – Compromise and leverage
- 1:45:15 – Putin and Russia
- 1:55:07 – Donald Trump
- 2:05:39 – Martial Law and Elections
- 2:17:58 – Corruption
- 2:26:44 – Elon Musk
- 2:30:47 – Trump Inauguration on Jan 20
- 2:33:55 – Power dynamics in Ukraine
- 2:37:27 – Future of Ukraine
- 2:42:09 – Choice of language
- 2:51:39 – Podcast prep and research process
- 3:00:04 – Travel and setup
- 3:05:51 – Conclusion
Introduction
Lex Fridman
I hope the Kyiv Airport will open soon then it will be easier to fly in.
I hope the Kyiv Airport will open soon then it will be easier to fly in.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes. I think that the war will end and President Trump may be the first leader to travel here by airplane. I think it would be symbolic by airplane.
Yes. I think that the war will end and President Trump may be the first leader to travel here by airplane. I think it would be symbolic by airplane.
Lex Fridman
Again, January 25th around that date, right. Flying in, meeting the Air Force One.
Again, January 25th around that date, right. Flying in, meeting the Air Force One.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That would be cool.
That would be cool.
Lex Fridman
There is a perception of corruption. People like Donald Trump and Elon Musk really care about fighting corruption. What can you say to them to gain their trust that the money is going towards this fight for freedom, towards the war effort?
There is a perception of corruption. People like Donald Trump and Elon Musk really care about fighting corruption. What can you say to them to gain their trust that the money is going towards this fight for freedom, towards the war effort?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
In most of cases, we did not receive money, we received weapons. And where we saw risks that something could be happening with weapons, we cracked down hard on everyone. And believe me, this is not only about Ukraine. Everywhere along the supply chain, there are some or other people and companies who want to make money, they try to make money on the war. We did not profit from the war. If we caught someone, believe me, we cracked down hard on them, and we did that, and we will continue to do so because to this day when someone says that, “Ukraine was selling weapons,” and by the way, Russia was the one pushing this narrative, we always responded, “Our soldiers would kill such people with their own hands without any trial.”
In most of cases, we did not receive money, we received weapons. And where we saw risks that something could be happening with weapons, we cracked down hard on everyone. And believe me, this is not only about Ukraine. Everywhere along the supply chain, there are some or other people and companies who want to make money, they try to make money on the war. We did not profit from the war. If we caught someone, believe me, we cracked down hard on them, and we did that, and we will continue to do so because to this day when someone says that, “Ukraine was selling weapons,” and by the way, Russia was the one pushing this narrative, we always responded, “Our soldiers would kill such people with their own hands without any trial.”
Do you honestly think anyone could steal weapons by the truckload when we ourselves don’t have enough on the front lines and yet we have to provide proof to defend ourselves? Because when there’s an abundance of such misinformation, distrust starts to grow. And you’re right, people listen to various media outlets, see this and lose faith in you. In the end, you lose trust and with it you lose support. Therefore, believe me, we are fighting more against disinformation than against particular cases, although I still emphasize once again at the everyday level, such things are still important. We catch these people and we fight them.
… as if Putin wants to sit down and talk, but Ukraine does not. This is not true.
Lex Fridman
I think that yes, he is in fact ready to talk.
I think that yes, he is in fact ready to talk.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Did you talk to him?
Did you talk to him?
Lex Fridman
On the phone or what?
On the phone or what?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
How do you normally talk to him?
How do you normally talk to him?
Lex Fridman
I don’t know. Normally by the sea, the same as with you. He invites you to the sea with me, just the three of us.
I don’t know. Normally by the sea, the same as with you. He invites you to the sea with me, just the three of us.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no. One of us may drown.
No, no. One of us may drown.
Lex Fridman
Who? Are you good at swimming?
Who? Are you good at swimming?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, I’m a good swimmer.
Yes, I’m a good swimmer.
Lex Fridman
You’re a good swimmer. Well, if you think that the President of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in his country, and he conducts, yes, destructive military actions-
You’re a good swimmer. Well, if you think that the President of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in his country, and he conducts, yes, destructive military actions-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Who are you talking about now? Who loves his country?
Who are you talking about now? Who loves his country?
Lex Fridman
Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love his country?
Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love his country?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No. What is his country? He happened to consider Ukraine, his country. What is his country?
No. What is his country? He happened to consider Ukraine, his country. What is his country?
Lex Fridman
When do you think there will be presidential elections in Ukraine?
When do you think there will be presidential elections in Ukraine?
Introductory words from Lex
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine. It was an intense, raw and heartfelt conversation, my goal for which, was to understand and to do all I can to push for peace. Please allow me to say a few words first about language, then about the President, and finally about history. Please skip ahead straight to our conversation if you like. We spoke in a mix of languages, continuously switching from Ukrainian to Russian to English, so the interpreter was barely hanging on. It was indeed in many ways a wild ride of a conversation. As the President said, “The first of many. Language, like many other things in a time of war is a big deal.” We had a choice, speaking Russian, Ukrainian or English. The President does speak some English, but he’s far from fluent in it and I sadly don’t speak Ukrainian yet, so Russian is the only common language we’re both fluent.
The following is a conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine. It was an intense, raw and heartfelt conversation, my goal for which, was to understand and to do all I can to push for peace. Please allow me to say a few words first about language, then about the President, and finally about history. Please skip ahead straight to our conversation if you like. We spoke in a mix of languages, continuously switching from Ukrainian to Russian to English, so the interpreter was barely hanging on. It was indeed in many ways a wild ride of a conversation. As the President said, “The first of many. Language, like many other things in a time of war is a big deal.” We had a choice, speaking Russian, Ukrainian or English. The President does speak some English, but he’s far from fluent in it and I sadly don’t speak Ukrainian yet, so Russian is the only common language we’re both fluent.
In case you don’t know, the Russian language is one that the President speaks fluently and was his primary language for most of his life. It’s the language I also speak fluently to the degree I speak any language fluently, as does a large fraction of the Ukrainian population. So the most dynamic and powerful conversation between us would be in Russian without an interpreter, who in this case added about two to three second delay and frankly translated partially and poorly for me at least, taking away my ability to feel the humor, the wit, the brilliance, the pain, the anger, the humanity of the person sitting before me, that I could clearly feel when he was speaking fluently in the language I understand, Russian. But all that said, war changes everything. The Ukrainian language has become a symbol of the Ukrainian people’s fight for freedom and independence, so we had a difficult choice of three languages and faced with that choice, we said yes to all three.
To the consternation and dismay of the translators. We make captions and voice over audio tracks available in English, Ukrainian, and Russian, so you can listen either to a version that is all one language or to the original mixed language version with subtitles in your preferred language. The default is English overdub. On YouTube you can switch between language audio tracks by clicking the settings gear icon, then clicking audio track and then selecting the language you prefer English, Ukrainian, Russian. To listen to the original mixed-language version, please select the English (UK) audio track, big thank you to ElevenLabs for their help with overdubbing using a mix of AI and humans. We will continue to explore how to break down the barriers that language creates with AI and otherwise. This is a difficult but important endeavor. Language, after all, is much more than a cold sequence of facts and logic statements.
There are words when spoken in the right sequence and at the right time they can shake the world and turn the tides of history. They can start and end wars. Great leaders can find those words and great translators can help these words reverberate to the outskirts of a divided civilization. On another note, let me say that President Zelenskyy is a truly remarkable person and a historic figure. I say this as somebody who deeply understands the geopolitical complexity and history of the region. I am from this region. My parents were both born in Ukraine, Kyiv and Kharkiv, both my grandfathers too. I was born in Tajikistan and lived for a time there, then in Kyiv, then Moscow, then United States, and while I am now for almost 30 years and to the day I die, I’m a proud American. My family roots grow deep in the soil of nations that comprised the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Tajikistan.
I’ve gotten to know and have spoken for hours with members of the President’s team and people close to him. I spoke to hundreds of Ukrainians since 2022, including soldiers, civilians, politicians, artists, religious leaders, journalists, economists, historians and technologists. I listened to hundreds of hours of programs that both support and criticize the President in Ukraine, in Russia, and the United States. I’ve read countless books about this war and the long arc of history that led up to it. It forced to recommend two at this moment, I would say The Russo-Ukrainian War by Serhii Plokhy and The Showman by Simon Shuster, which is a good personal behind-the-scenes biography of the President focused on 2022, but there are many, many more. This is why I can comfortably say that he is a truly singular and remarkable human being. It was an honor and pleasure to talk with him on and off the mic.
Now, it is true that I plan to travel to Moscow and to speak with President Vladimir Putin and I hope to be back in Kyiv as well as President Zelenskyy said, this was our first of many more meetings. In all of these cases, I seek to do my small part in pushing for peace. And in doing all this, I’m deeply grateful for the trust people have given me on all sides. For the people attacking me, sometimes lying about me, for the critics in the stands chanting the latest slogans of the mass hysteria machine like the sheep in Animal Farm, I love you too. And I assure you that drawing lines between good and evil on a world map is much easier than seeing that line between good and evil in every human being, including you and me. This is what I try to do. I’m simply a human being who seeks to find and surface the humanity in others, and as I’ve said, no amount of money, fame, power, access can buy my opinion or my integrity. Now, finally, please allow me to briefly overview some history to give background for several topics that President Zelenskyy references in this conversation. I recommend my conversation with Serhii Plokhy and many others about the history of the region. But here, let me start with 1991. When Ukraine declared its independence and the Soviet Union collapsed. From this point on Russia-Ukraine relations were defined in large part by whether Ukraine aligned more with Russia or with the West, meaning Europe, United States, NATO, and so on. In 2004, with the Orange Revolution, a pro-Western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko became President. In 2010, it went the other way. A pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych became President. The internal tensions grew and in 2013 Euromaidan protests broke out over Yanukovych’s decision to suspend talks with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia. This set forward a chain of important events in 2014. On the politics front, Yanukovych was ousted and fled to Russia leading to the election of a pro-Western President.
Also, in 2014, on the war front, Russia annexed Crimea and war broke out in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, which eventually killed over 14,000 people and continued all the way to 2022. When on February 24th 2022, Russian forces initiated a full scale invasion of Ukraine. This is when the world started to really pay attention. Now some history of peace talks. Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the presidency in 2019 and he discusses in this conversation the ceasefire agreements he made with Vladimir Putin in 2019, which was one of many attempts at peace from the two Minsk agreements in 2014 and ’15 to a series of ceasefire agreements in 2018, ’19, and ’20, all of which failed in part or in whole. All this shows just how difficult ceasefire and peace negotiations are, but they are not impossible. It is always worth trying over and over again to find the path to peace.
I believe that Presidents Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump should meet soon after January 20th this year and give everything they got to negotiate a ceasefire and security guarantees that pave the way for long-lasting peace. We discussed several ideas for this in this conversation. As I said, this was one of my main goals here, to push for peace. This trip to Kyiv and this conversation was a truly special moment for me in my life. It is one I will never forget, so to reflect I say a few more words and answer some questions at the very end if you like to listen, but here let me say thank you to everyone for your support over the years. It means the world. This is a Lex Fridman Podcast and now dear friends, here’s the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Language
Lex Fridman
If we can explain why the Ukrainian language is very important, our conversation will be most effective and impactful if we speak in Russian.
If we can explain why the Ukrainian language is very important, our conversation will be most effective and impactful if we speak in Russian.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I speak Russian perfectly of course, and I understand everything you are talking about. However, I can’t respond in Russian the entire interview. It’s because this is how it is today. I’m not making anything up. You can see it all for yourself. You can feel and hear it. Today, there were 73 missile attacks against us and people were killed. There were over 100 drones today, and this is a daily occurrence. The people who attack us, they speak Russian. They attack people who were only recently told that this was actually in defense of Russian-speaking people, and this is why I respect neither the leader or director of today’s Russia, nor the people. That’s it. And I don’t think that you can just pretend that nothing’s happening and give Putin a pass once again for saying that, “We are one people, that we speak one language,” et cetera. They speak the language of weapons. That is a fact, and we are peaceful people. Peaceful people who want to protect themselves and defend their freedom and their human choice. At the beginning of the war, I addressed Russians in Russian, zero effect. They’re mute.
I speak Russian perfectly of course, and I understand everything you are talking about. However, I can’t respond in Russian the entire interview. It’s because this is how it is today. I’m not making anything up. You can see it all for yourself. You can feel and hear it. Today, there were 73 missile attacks against us and people were killed. There were over 100 drones today, and this is a daily occurrence. The people who attack us, they speak Russian. They attack people who were only recently told that this was actually in defense of Russian-speaking people, and this is why I respect neither the leader or director of today’s Russia, nor the people. That’s it. And I don’t think that you can just pretend that nothing’s happening and give Putin a pass once again for saying that, “We are one people, that we speak one language,” et cetera. They speak the language of weapons. That is a fact, and we are peaceful people. Peaceful people who want to protect themselves and defend their freedom and their human choice. At the beginning of the war, I addressed Russians in Russian, zero effect. They’re mute.
They do not listen. They did not listen. Some are afraid, some have other issues. They have different reasons. It’s like when a person is drowning and people walk by because they can’t hear them. And someone walks on by crying, afraid to save them. It doesn’t change anything for the one drowning. They need someone to help them. This is why I honestly despise these people as they are deaf. They began the occupation in the supposed defense of the Russian language and that’s why with all due respect, I would like to give an interview in Ukrainian. This is very important to me. If there are some points that you want me to explain in Russian, I can certainly do that. I can certainly occasionally speak Russian, but in general, no. I’m not sure that you will understand me completely, despite your Ukrainian roots, you are a citizen of the United States, right?
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That’s why I’m surprised that you don’t understand. Well, it was a long time ago. I understand that it was a long time ago. Moreover, a lot has changed. A lot has changed.
That’s why I’m surprised that you don’t understand. Well, it was a long time ago. I understand that it was a long time ago. Moreover, a lot has changed. A lot has changed.
Lex Fridman
If I may, please allow me to say this in Russian. Yes, many things have changed, but I have hope. I hope that today many Russians will hear this, that Vladimir Putin will hear this, that the American President, Donald Trump, and the American people will hear this, that everyone will hear this. And yes, Ukrainian language is important symbolically, but what is also important is that we understand each other well.
If I may, please allow me to say this in Russian. Yes, many things have changed, but I have hope. I hope that today many Russians will hear this, that Vladimir Putin will hear this, that the American President, Donald Trump, and the American people will hear this, that everyone will hear this. And yes, Ukrainian language is important symbolically, but what is also important is that we understand each other well.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
For Donald Trump? Is it important for Donald Trump whether I speak Russian or not?
For Donald Trump? Is it important for Donald Trump whether I speak Russian or not?
Lex Fridman
Yes, yes, yes. Because unfortunately, and it hurts to admit, but I cannot speak or understand Ukrainian yet, so your wit, dynamism and your humanity will not come through as well and as quickly. Remember, I need to wait for two to three seconds to hear it. You have a great sense of humor, great stories. With an interpreter translating, I simply won’t see this, but I understand that it’s painful. Another reason is that I hoped we could show that even though it is sometimes said that Russian is banned in Ukraine-
Yes, yes, yes. Because unfortunately, and it hurts to admit, but I cannot speak or understand Ukrainian yet, so your wit, dynamism and your humanity will not come through as well and as quickly. Remember, I need to wait for two to three seconds to hear it. You have a great sense of humor, great stories. With an interpreter translating, I simply won’t see this, but I understand that it’s painful. Another reason is that I hoped we could show that even though it is sometimes said that Russian is banned in Ukraine-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
This is not true. I’m speaking Russian now, right. We have people who speak Russian. This is not true. Really, it’s not. It’s really not true. We disrespect Russian now because of Russians. That’s all. When they were saving Russian speakers, they killed Russian speakers. Many people who actually… Many of whom are in the East, right. They lived in the East. They destroyed their houses, destroyed their lives. It’s not a rhetorical thing. It’s not all talk and blah, blah, blah. I don’t have time for blah, blah, blah.
This is not true. I’m speaking Russian now, right. We have people who speak Russian. This is not true. Really, it’s not. It’s really not true. We disrespect Russian now because of Russians. That’s all. When they were saving Russian speakers, they killed Russian speakers. Many people who actually… Many of whom are in the East, right. They lived in the East. They destroyed their houses, destroyed their lives. It’s not a rhetorical thing. It’s not all talk and blah, blah, blah. I don’t have time for blah, blah, blah.
Yes, so it’s a very, very, very important and sensitive moment. The message is that we are not one nation. We are not the same country. We’re different countries. Yes, different countries, and I think what is most important is what we’re talking about, not how we’re speaking about it. This is what I think. You are a smart guy, so you have a lot of experience in dialogue of this kind. That’s why I think you will understand me. Yeah. Anyway, I think it is far better for Donald Trump to hear my English, not my Russian.
Lex Fridman
Your English is much better than my Ukrainian. You’re getting better and better every day.
Your English is much better than my Ukrainian. You’re getting better and better every day.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That’s true. I’m a very honest guy. That’s why I will be very honest with you.
That’s true. I’m a very honest guy. That’s why I will be very honest with you.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Your Ukrainian is not very good, but we will work on it.
Your Ukrainian is not very good, but we will work on it.
Lex Fridman
Yes. I have many flaws, that’s one of them.
Yes. I have many flaws, that’s one of them.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Sometimes I can speak English. Sometimes as I understand, we can be very flexible, right?
Sometimes I can speak English. Sometimes as I understand, we can be very flexible, right?
Lex Fridman
Very flexible. Spanish, Swahili.
Very flexible. Spanish, Swahili.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah. You see?
Yeah. You see?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
You’re very flexible-
You’re very flexible-
Lex Fridman
Javier Milei needs to understand this, so…
Javier Milei needs to understand this, so…
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
By the way, Javier understood me without any words.
By the way, Javier understood me without any words.
Lex Fridman
The language of love, maybe.
The language of love, maybe.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Of respect.
Of respect.
Lex Fridman
Respect.
Respect.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I respect him. I had a very good conversation with him. Really brilliant.
I respect him. I had a very good conversation with him. Really brilliant.
Lex Fridman
May I sometimes speak Russian and sometimes English?
May I sometimes speak Russian and sometimes English?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah, yes. You can use any language you like, and I think that’s a very good rule for this first meeting between us. As you said, maybe we will meet in the future for the second time.
Yeah, yes. You can use any language you like, and I think that’s a very good rule for this first meeting between us. As you said, maybe we will meet in the future for the second time.
Lex Fridman
Second and third and fourth?
Second and third and fourth?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah, this is good. You can ask questions in the language you’d like and I will answer in the language I can.
Yeah, this is good. You can ask questions in the language you’d like and I will answer in the language I can.
Lex Fridman
Well, you said you wanted to meet by the sea at some point, so for our next meeting, let’s meet by the sea.
Well, you said you wanted to meet by the sea at some point, so for our next meeting, let’s meet by the sea.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
With pleasure next time. It would be much better to meet by our Ukrainian Black or our Azov Sea.
With pleasure next time. It would be much better to meet by our Ukrainian Black or our Azov Sea.
Lex Fridman
I have traveled to many cities in Ukraine, but I have never been to Odessa and everyone tells me that, and I don’t know why.
I have traveled to many cities in Ukraine, but I have never been to Odessa and everyone tells me that, and I don’t know why.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
You have to.
You have to.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain to me why everyone loves Odessa so much? What’s there?
Can you explain to me why everyone loves Odessa so much? What’s there?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
What’s in Odessa? That’s how they say it. What’s there? In Odessa, we’ve got it all.
What’s in Odessa? That’s how they say it. What’s there? In Odessa, we’ve got it all.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Odessa. I love Odessa because of its particular temperament. People have their own accent, and there are many nationalities. There are a lot of stories, authentic, Odessa cuisine. By the way, the cuisine is very different from others. The dishes are not like any other dishes and everything is very tasty. Also, there are beautiful people, and today, you understand people very well, especially after the attacks on Odessa. You understand what the people are like, just how Odessites are, very Ukrainian, and that’s very cool. I love Odessa. I go there several times a year. I go there several times a year now because… Well, now because of strengthening of air defense systems, because of this grain corridor, et cetera. I go there more often. They have the sun there. They have the sea. It’s Ukraine, and it’s very cool there.
Odessa. I love Odessa because of its particular temperament. People have their own accent, and there are many nationalities. There are a lot of stories, authentic, Odessa cuisine. By the way, the cuisine is very different from others. The dishes are not like any other dishes and everything is very tasty. Also, there are beautiful people, and today, you understand people very well, especially after the attacks on Odessa. You understand what the people are like, just how Odessites are, very Ukrainian, and that’s very cool. I love Odessa. I go there several times a year. I go there several times a year now because… Well, now because of strengthening of air defense systems, because of this grain corridor, et cetera. I go there more often. They have the sun there. They have the sea. It’s Ukraine, and it’s very cool there.
Lex Fridman
Well, when you come and visit me in Texas as a guest for the third time-
Well, when you come and visit me in Texas as a guest for the third time-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
With pleasure.
With pleasure.
Lex Fridman
Let’s do this. How about you, my friend Joe Rogan and I, we’ll go get some Texas barbecue together.
Let’s do this. How about you, my friend Joe Rogan and I, we’ll go get some Texas barbecue together.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Who will pay?
Who will pay?
Lex Fridman
That’s a good question.
That’s a good question.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Putin. Putin for everything. He has to pay.
Putin. Putin for everything. He has to pay.
Lex Fridman
Well, yes. We’ll invite him too.
Well, yes. We’ll invite him too.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no, no, no.
No, no, no, no.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Without him.
Without him.
Lex Fridman
Okay, I get it. Understood.
Okay, I get it. Understood.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
But if the Rome Statute will be accepted by your government before this moment.
But if the Rome Statute will be accepted by your government before this moment.
Lex Fridman
Okay. By the way, I don’t know if you know this, but Joe has a great comedy club in Austin.
Okay. By the way, I don’t know if you know this, but Joe has a great comedy club in Austin.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Joe Rogan?
Joe Rogan?
Lex Fridman
Joe Rogan, yes. And I think that as a person who respects comedy and stand-up comedy, it would be interesting for you to have a look at it.
Joe Rogan, yes. And I think that as a person who respects comedy and stand-up comedy, it would be interesting for you to have a look at it.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no. He is, I know him and I saw a lot of different videos. He’s a very talented person, so it would be a pleasure if you invite me and I’m able to do it. I am a little bit busy, but if I’ll be in the United States, I hope that I will have a conversation and a meeting with President Trump, and of course during my visit, if I’ll have the time, it would be a pleasure if you’ll invite me. With pleasure.
No, no. He is, I know him and I saw a lot of different videos. He’s a very talented person, so it would be a pleasure if you invite me and I’m able to do it. I am a little bit busy, but if I’ll be in the United States, I hope that I will have a conversation and a meeting with President Trump, and of course during my visit, if I’ll have the time, it would be a pleasure if you’ll invite me. With pleasure.
Lex Fridman
You know what? I will pay.
You know what? I will pay.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Good.
Good.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I had to think about it, but you are the President.
Yeah. I had to think about it, but you are the President.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, with you, with pleasure.
Yes, with you, with pleasure.
Lex Fridman
When the war is over, please come.
When the war is over, please come.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thanks so much.
Thanks so much.
Lex Fridman
And when you’re less busy.
And when you’re less busy.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thanks so much.
Thanks so much.
World War II
Lex Fridman
If we can go back many years, World War II, tell me the story of your grandfather who fought in World War II.
If we can go back many years, World War II, tell me the story of your grandfather who fought in World War II.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
My grandfather, he graduated from the military academy, and from the very beginning of the war, he went to fight. He was in the infantry and he fought through the entire war. He had many wounds, as they used to say back then, “His chest is covered in medals,” and it’s true. He had more than 30? Yes, more than 30. He was the kind of man… He was such a serious man. I loved him very much, and we had a very close relationship. He didn’t like to tell details about the war. He never boasted, although I asked him as a boy would, “How many fascists did you kill?” He never talked about it. He believed that the war was a great tragedy. A tragedy for everyone. And Ukraine was occupied, and it was a tragedy for Ukraine, a tragedy for Europe, and a tragedy for the Jewish people.
My grandfather, he graduated from the military academy, and from the very beginning of the war, he went to fight. He was in the infantry and he fought through the entire war. He had many wounds, as they used to say back then, “His chest is covered in medals,” and it’s true. He had more than 30? Yes, more than 30. He was the kind of man… He was such a serious man. I loved him very much, and we had a very close relationship. He didn’t like to tell details about the war. He never boasted, although I asked him as a boy would, “How many fascists did you kill?” He never talked about it. He believed that the war was a great tragedy. A tragedy for everyone. And Ukraine was occupied, and it was a tragedy for Ukraine, a tragedy for Europe, and a tragedy for the Jewish people.
His own brothers, his entire family were executed. They were tortured by fascists who had occupied Ukraine and their village. His father was the head of the village and he was killed. They were shot. It was a mass… A mass grave, right? Yes. It was a communal burial. Some of them were killed outright and others, they were buried alive. His four brothers, they all went to war. As soon as the war began, they were all there. He was the only one who had a military education, and they all died in the war. He was the only one who came back. He had nobody. He came back and he found my grandmother, his future wife, and she managed… What was it called then? I don’t know. They don’t have them anymore. It was a child care facility, an orphanage, so to speak, a place where orphans lived, children who don’t have parents, children of war.
And she managed this child care facility with difficult children, as they used to call them, difficult children who went through the war, who saw their parents killed, and this is how they met, because these difficult children, they, well, sometimes behave differently. They could steal something, do something bad. There were many, many children in the orphanage. Yes, that’s how she met my grandfather, and I loved him very much, and I think that my grandfather, frankly would never have believed that this war is possible. He would never have believed it because he worked in the police after the war. He was a colonel. He worked in a criminal investigation all his life, so he fought with bandits all his life, after the Second World War, but also I believe he fought for justice all his life. And we all lived in one apartment, and even after his death, I lived with both of my grandmothers and my parents, two grandmothers who both lost their husbands. Both of them died.
Well, it was an ordinary family, an ordinary family that lived like everyone lived back then in the Soviet Union and even after the Soviet in the nineties, we lived in one apartment all together. What else is there to say? But I think the most important thing was values, respect. They gave me an education. My parents gave me an education, no one left me money or apartments, so I didn’t inherit anything material. But I believe that our real inheritance is here, in our minds and in our hearts. I believe that. Understood.
Lex Fridman
There’s just a one-second delay, so if… I’m sorry, if you-
There’s just a one-second delay, so if… I’m sorry, if you-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
It’s fine.
It’s fine.
Lex Fridman
… tell a joke, I will laugh about one, two or three seconds later. There’s a delay. So ordinary family, but not an ordinary time. World War II. Speaking of mass graves, I was at Babyn Yar yesterday. A large part of my family died there. In moments like this, such a place serves as a stark reminder of the profound historical gravity of the Second World War. I remember this song from my youth, “On June 22nd at four o’clock, Kyiv was bombed and the war began.” I always wondered how it would feel to live in a moment when everything changed. The path of humanity completely shifts in a single moment just like that. What do you think about that moment in 1941 now, after the 2022 invasion, how do you perceive the Second World War after you have witnessed all of it?
… tell a joke, I will laugh about one, two or three seconds later. There’s a delay. So ordinary family, but not an ordinary time. World War II. Speaking of mass graves, I was at Babyn Yar yesterday. A large part of my family died there. In moments like this, such a place serves as a stark reminder of the profound historical gravity of the Second World War. I remember this song from my youth, “On June 22nd at four o’clock, Kyiv was bombed and the war began.” I always wondered how it would feel to live in a moment when everything changed. The path of humanity completely shifts in a single moment just like that. What do you think about that moment in 1941 now, after the 2022 invasion, how do you perceive the Second World War after you have witnessed all of it?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Well, firstly, the war actually started earlier. It started here in Ukraine. Kyiv was bombed as you quoted, but the war had already begun before that. And I think I perceived it as a start of the full-scale invasion. Well, I think it’s hard to understand why nobody wants to listen, look at and analyze history. War, the rise of fascism and Nazism, the emergence of Hitler, Goebbels, and their entire team at the time, this wasn’t just about one party or even one country. It was essentially a wave. A wave of hatred, a wave of one race, one race above the rest.
Well, firstly, the war actually started earlier. It started here in Ukraine. Kyiv was bombed as you quoted, but the war had already begun before that. And I think I perceived it as a start of the full-scale invasion. Well, I think it’s hard to understand why nobody wants to listen, look at and analyze history. War, the rise of fascism and Nazism, the emergence of Hitler, Goebbels, and their entire team at the time, this wasn’t just about one party or even one country. It was essentially a wave. A wave of hatred, a wave of one race, one race above the rest.
They were in fact constructing and ultimately implemented a theory around this idea later seizing Europe. They created a theory of one nation, one race, one world, their world. Of course, this idea is absolutely senseless, but it has become radicalized over the years and even gained support. A vision of one world and in principle, the so-called Russian World, the ideology Putin promotes and imposes, it wasn’t originally like that. He was a different person back then, or maybe he was always like this, but his rhetoric was different. At the beginning, remember, he talked about the EU, and-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
At the beginning, remember he talked about the EU and even about Russia’s future being tied to NATO. There were even talks of joining the European Union, NATO. He spoke about shared values with the West. That’s how it all sounded back then. We must also look at Hitler, who was seriously… Before the radical idea of taking over the whole world, he actually made certain steps and everyone believed he was helping the economy. And to be fair, he did take some steps in that direction but he was a terrifying person. None of those actions justify him, nor do they excuse his actions and that’s why we cannot look at the Second World War as if it started in 1939. It didn’t begin in 1941 either. We need to draw conclusions. When did it start? With the weaknesses of the world? The division of European states, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. All of this happened before 1941. People who were more informed, those who dug deeper, whether they were politicians or not, whether they were from different walks of life including business, which was different back then, we’re speaking about all of this.
At the beginning, remember he talked about the EU and even about Russia’s future being tied to NATO. There were even talks of joining the European Union, NATO. He spoke about shared values with the West. That’s how it all sounded back then. We must also look at Hitler, who was seriously… Before the radical idea of taking over the whole world, he actually made certain steps and everyone believed he was helping the economy. And to be fair, he did take some steps in that direction but he was a terrifying person. None of those actions justify him, nor do they excuse his actions and that’s why we cannot look at the Second World War as if it started in 1939. It didn’t begin in 1941 either. We need to draw conclusions. When did it start? With the weaknesses of the world? The division of European states, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. All of this happened before 1941. People who were more informed, those who dug deeper, whether they were politicians or not, whether they were from different walks of life including business, which was different back then, we’re speaking about all of this.
Hitler won’t stop. There’ll be a world war. Hitler will destroy nations, nations, and that’s what happened. Someone looked the other way. What I told you about. Europe was sinking then, I gave you an example of it but the whole world looked the other way and didn’t pay attention and said, no, we can negotiate with him. I’m telling you he’s okay. We can negotiate with him. He’s just more right leaning, or it does not matter what they said. He’s just very pro nationalist. This is all nonsense and this is not the first time and Hitler isn’t the first such case in history. We’re dealing with a person who is allowed to stick to this desire to destroy. He was consumed by it and enjoying it. And what happened to Hitler?
Now, what about Putin? This invasion was also at around four in the morning. There were missile strikes on Ukraine. This is the same. I believe that intentions are also the same but more on that later. By the way, you tell me if this is too long, you can stop me.
Lex Fridman
Never long enough. It’s beautiful.
Never long enough. It’s beautiful.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Okay, so it happened here around four in the morning. Before this, I must honestly say everyone said something, predicted something, et cetera but I asked only for one thing primarily from the United States, if you are sure, if you have the evidence, if you talk to him and he tells you that there’ll be an invasion, if all this scares you, I only asked for two things. Send us weapons or better yet, strengthen us with preventive measures so there would be no war. It wasn’t the weapons that I was asking for. I asked for sanctions. Intimidate him. Please don’t say that if he comes, if he crosses borders, if he kills, we are imposing sanctions. Well, this is complete bullshit. Sorry but really.
Okay, so it happened here around four in the morning. Before this, I must honestly say everyone said something, predicted something, et cetera but I asked only for one thing primarily from the United States, if you are sure, if you have the evidence, if you talk to him and he tells you that there’ll be an invasion, if all this scares you, I only asked for two things. Send us weapons or better yet, strengthen us with preventive measures so there would be no war. It wasn’t the weapons that I was asking for. I asked for sanctions. Intimidate him. Please don’t say that if he comes, if he crosses borders, if he kills, we are imposing sanctions. Well, this is complete bullshit. Sorry but really.
Lex Fridman
Oh, I understand this.
Oh, I understand this.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Oh, wonderful. Yes.
Oh, wonderful. Yes.
Lex Fridman
I understood one word.
I understood one word.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, they did not help.
So, they did not help.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I believe that no and this is a fact. We didn’t receive help. If we assume that words are help, well then yes, we received a lot of it because there were plenty of words. Even more than plenty, yes. At four in the morning there were strikes. Morally, is it possible to prepare for war? No. It doesn’t happen like you read in books, see in movies and so on. What happens to you? I was just looking at my wife and children. My children were asleep but my wife was awake. There were strikes, missile strikes. We heard them. To you as a living person, how can this be? You just can’t fully believe this. You just don’t understand. Why now, given everything that happened in World War II when millions of people died? None of it mattered still at four in the morning around 4:00, 3:40, 3:45. Remember, around this time? Yes, there were missile strikes and later.
I believe that no and this is a fact. We didn’t receive help. If we assume that words are help, well then yes, we received a lot of it because there were plenty of words. Even more than plenty, yes. At four in the morning there were strikes. Morally, is it possible to prepare for war? No. It doesn’t happen like you read in books, see in movies and so on. What happens to you? I was just looking at my wife and children. My children were asleep but my wife was awake. There were strikes, missile strikes. We heard them. To you as a living person, how can this be? You just can’t fully believe this. You just don’t understand. Why now, given everything that happened in World War II when millions of people died? None of it mattered still at four in the morning around 4:00, 3:40, 3:45. Remember, around this time? Yes, there were missile strikes and later.
By the way, a few days after the first days of the war, I spoke with Lukashenko on the phone and he apologized and he said that it was not me. Missiles were launched from my territory and Putin was the one launching them. These are his words. “I have witnesses and I apologize,” he said. But believe me, that’s what he told me. “Volodymyr, this is not me. I’m not in charge,” he told me, “I’m not in charge. These are just missiles. This is Putin.” I told him, “Don’t do that.” This was done without me. That’s it. On the phone, I remember this conversation. I told him, “You are a murderer too, I’m just saying.” He told me, “You must understand, you can’t fight the Russians.” I told him that we never fought them. I said, “It’s war. The missiles came from your land, from Belarus. How did you allow this?” Then he replied, “All right, retaliate then.” I still remember him telling me, “Hit the refinery. You know how much I care about it.” Mozyr Oil Refinery, is that it? Can’t recall. Mozyr Oil Refinery. I told him, “What are you on about? What retaliation?”
Lex Fridman
Forgive me, Volodymyr.
Forgive me, Volodymyr.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
This was at five in the morning?
This was at five in the morning?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no, no. This was during the first or maybe the second day. Second or third day of the war.
No, no, no. This was during the first or maybe the second day. Second or third day of the war.
Lex Fridman
Ah, I see.
Ah, I see.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
After that I went back home. I was home with my children, with my wife. I just went to my wife very quickly that night at four o’clock and just told her, “Get the children, get ready. You’ll probably need to go to my office very soon.” And I left. That’s it. At this moment, you are no longer a father. What happened to me, unfortunately, because I believe that this is, and not only do I believe I understand, especially now, that all of this is the most important thing because your country is your family. The strength is in your family and this is the most important thing. I’m the president and therefore, I had to stop being a father in my own family. And my wife had to do everything… She had to do everything regarding children, regarding safety and I had to deal with the state because I’m the president and this is my duty. And I, by the way, am taking this very seriously. I went to the office and here we are now. You’re very welcome.
After that I went back home. I was home with my children, with my wife. I just went to my wife very quickly that night at four o’clock and just told her, “Get the children, get ready. You’ll probably need to go to my office very soon.” And I left. That’s it. At this moment, you are no longer a father. What happened to me, unfortunately, because I believe that this is, and not only do I believe I understand, especially now, that all of this is the most important thing because your country is your family. The strength is in your family and this is the most important thing. I’m the president and therefore, I had to stop being a father in my own family. And my wife had to do everything… She had to do everything regarding children, regarding safety and I had to deal with the state because I’m the president and this is my duty. And I, by the way, am taking this very seriously. I went to the office and here we are now. You’re very welcome.
Invasion on Feb 24, 2022
Lex Fridman
Well, at that moment on February 24th, 2022, everything changed again. Just like in June 1941, everything changed and history took a turn. The history of humanity took a turn and for you too, you were the president. You were talking about fighting corruption, about the country’s freedom, about interesting and innovative reforms but that morning of February 22nd, everything changed. Could you tell me about that morning, the details of your actions when you had to quickly make difficult decisions? What was the process for you? How did you make these decisions? Did you discuss them with people you trust to understand how to respond to this invasion in every technical, political and military aspect? What was the process for you? How did you make the decision?
Well, at that moment on February 24th, 2022, everything changed again. Just like in June 1941, everything changed and history took a turn. The history of humanity took a turn and for you too, you were the president. You were talking about fighting corruption, about the country’s freedom, about interesting and innovative reforms but that morning of February 22nd, everything changed. Could you tell me about that morning, the details of your actions when you had to quickly make difficult decisions? What was the process for you? How did you make these decisions? Did you discuss them with people you trust to understand how to respond to this invasion in every technical, political and military aspect? What was the process for you? How did you make the decision?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
According to our legislation, in principle, I am the supreme commander of the Armed forces of Ukraine, so I had to give corresponding orders. Yes, I have a military office and then later there was a military headquarters where all key people gathered. This is not only about the military, it’s about energy, et cetera, all key things. But at that moment, I made the decisions quickly and without a doubt and I cannot say that I am just that kind of person. I’m just a living person who believed that if help is needed right now to help, to help evacuate people, help with children. Several cities were blocked. I was only thinking about how to deliver food there within a day. We did a lot of things, although we understood that they in fact occupy part of our state.
According to our legislation, in principle, I am the supreme commander of the Armed forces of Ukraine, so I had to give corresponding orders. Yes, I have a military office and then later there was a military headquarters where all key people gathered. This is not only about the military, it’s about energy, et cetera, all key things. But at that moment, I made the decisions quickly and without a doubt and I cannot say that I am just that kind of person. I’m just a living person who believed that if help is needed right now to help, to help evacuate people, help with children. Several cities were blocked. I was only thinking about how to deliver food there within a day. We did a lot of things, although we understood that they in fact occupy part of our state.
We distributed weapons to people, that’s how it was. Trucks came and simply distributed weapons to people so that they could defend the capital, to ordinary people just on the street, to ordinary people who understood that if the Russians entered a city, then we would have the same thing that’s happening in other cities per the information we received. Thanks to digitalization, by the way, we had very good digitalization before this. We preserved a lot and even when they were surrounding certain cities, a lot of things still worked. The banking system, the internet, we had television, and thanks to this, I made several decisions to ensure that people are united and have all the information. Russia is very good at spreading large scale disinformation. Fortunately, I have two decades of experience managing a production studio, TV channels and large media resources. I understood that we needed to build an information network very quickly.
Thanks to this, I began to address the people constantly. This happened several times, three to five times a day. In fact, I became an information source for people who were in cities that were cut off from other information and it was very important for me to keep all things digital, to keep the internet, to stay in touch with everyone with all the people. Initially, that’s the contact we had and then we also built a media platform where we had all the news agencies of Ukraine and this network was called Marathon. It was also very important for the people to trust us and people had to receive information. Why? There were waves of Russian on the first day who said he ran away. I had to go out into the street, I left the office and went outside. I had to do this because I was showing that this was no green screen to show that it was the street, not some digital manipulation.
I did these things. Then I touched various objects. Now, people might think that these are small things, but I was actually showing that I was in a real place. All of this had an impact. I was absolutely sure of my actions. And these contacts, several contacts and then I spoke to the Russians, I addressed Russians, I really did, and then only after that I gathered… It was the first day when I invited all of the journalists here, wasn’t it? That was on the first day, I think. Well, not here, to the press center in this building. I talked to journalists. I asked them not to leave because we needed weapons. At that moment, they were handing out rifles to people and for me, journalists and media platforms were essential voices.
There were various journalists from different countries here and they were essentially stuck and I asked them for contacts, those who had access to Russians, Belarusians, Kazakhs who understood everything, the same information, and I spoke to them and I spoke to them and spoke in Russian. I told them, “You must stop Putin. This is terrible. This is horror. This is war. You must stop him. And if you stand up now, if you speak out and if you go out into the streets…” This was very important. I spoke to them in Russian to show them that there was no problem and that all of these pretexts were made up. This is why it’s so painful to talk about the Russian language too because look, if a person does not want to listen, they will not listen no matter what language we speak.
Negotiating Peace
Lex Fridman
I disagree with you here. I think and hope that many people in Russia will hear us today.
I disagree with you here. I think and hope that many people in Russia will hear us today.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
They blocked YouTube recently. Are you aware of this? In their country.
They blocked YouTube recently. Are you aware of this? In their country.
Lex Fridman
I know. I simply guarantee that this conversation will travel fast on the internet. Everyone will hear you. They will hear you, including the president of Russia will hear you. This is why I have hope.
I know. I simply guarantee that this conversation will travel fast on the internet. Everyone will hear you. They will hear you, including the president of Russia will hear you. This is why I have hope.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
He is actually deaf. Even if he speaks to you, he is deaf by his very nature. Do you understand the difference? For instance, when you talk to Musk, you are talking to an innovator, a scientist about rockets. You talk about how to save on costs and how they land. On the other hand, Putin doesn’t launch rockets to save money but to kill people. Do you think you can talk to Putin about technology? Your guys were interviewing him and he told them about tribal history. Do you understand? Imagine a Russian man in his country listening to him. You know what Musk is about, technology, Mars, artificial intelligence. And this guy Putin is standing there bare-assed pontificating about tribes. You’ve got to understand, you think that when you do interviews like Mr. Tucker who did an interview there that you’re about to make them friends. What does this have to do with friends? He is different. He’s simply different.
He is actually deaf. Even if he speaks to you, he is deaf by his very nature. Do you understand the difference? For instance, when you talk to Musk, you are talking to an innovator, a scientist about rockets. You talk about how to save on costs and how they land. On the other hand, Putin doesn’t launch rockets to save money but to kill people. Do you think you can talk to Putin about technology? Your guys were interviewing him and he told them about tribal history. Do you understand? Imagine a Russian man in his country listening to him. You know what Musk is about, technology, Mars, artificial intelligence. And this guy Putin is standing there bare-assed pontificating about tribes. You’ve got to understand, you think that when you do interviews like Mr. Tucker who did an interview there that you’re about to make them friends. What does this have to do with friends? He is different. He’s simply different.
Lex Fridman
But it’s still necessary.
But it’s still necessary.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A mammoth stands before you.
A mammoth stands before you.
Lex Fridman
By the way, I must say that when you said bare-assed, it was not translated. Could the interpreter please translate?
By the way, I must say that when you said bare-assed, it was not translated. Could the interpreter please translate?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
This is so that you can understand.
This is so that you can understand.
Lex Fridman
Now he explained everything to me, I understand.
Now he explained everything to me, I understand.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah, that’s great.
Yeah, that’s great.
Lex Fridman
Now I fully understand.
Now I fully understand.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That’s great.
That’s great.
Lex Fridman
Anyway, but we still need to talk.
Anyway, but we still need to talk.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
One should always speak with someone who listens and you must speak when you know that this will benefit you bring peace and calm to the world, not the other way around. I love President Trump’s message. When he speaks, I think that we share a position on peace through strength. That is very important. It means that if you are strong, you can speak. And we need to be strong and Ukraine has to be strong enough, otherwise what for? Like Voldemort who must not be named. Yes, he’s like Voldemort. He thrives subsists and lives on being subjectivized instead of isolation. He has offered to step out into the light. He is darkness personified and you offer him, as it were, to be subjectivized.
One should always speak with someone who listens and you must speak when you know that this will benefit you bring peace and calm to the world, not the other way around. I love President Trump’s message. When he speaks, I think that we share a position on peace through strength. That is very important. It means that if you are strong, you can speak. And we need to be strong and Ukraine has to be strong enough, otherwise what for? Like Voldemort who must not be named. Yes, he’s like Voldemort. He thrives subsists and lives on being subjectivized instead of isolation. He has offered to step out into the light. He is darkness personified and you offer him, as it were, to be subjectivized.
Why? There’s only one reason, fear. And you say we need to talk. Listen, we need to be in a strong position and not talk but end the war. Yes, it is possible through dialogue. We’re not opposed to it. You just need to be in a strong position to make the other person want it. Do you think he wants to end the war? That’s what you suggested. I think this is naive. I’m sorry. With all due respect, it’s naive to think he wants to finish the war.
Lex Fridman
Tell you what-
Tell you what-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The circumstances… Sorry for interrupting. There’s something we need. I think that President Trump not only has will, he has all these possibilities and it’s not just talk. I really count on him and I think that our people really count on him. He has enough power to pressure Putin not into wanting to stop it. No, he will not want to. To pressure him to actually stop it, that is the difference. Don’t rely on Putin’s will to stop. You won’t see it. That’s what I think. Sorry.
The circumstances… Sorry for interrupting. There’s something we need. I think that President Trump not only has will, he has all these possibilities and it’s not just talk. I really count on him and I think that our people really count on him. He has enough power to pressure Putin not into wanting to stop it. No, he will not want to. To pressure him to actually stop it, that is the difference. Don’t rely on Putin’s will to stop. You won’t see it. That’s what I think. Sorry.
Lex Fridman
No, sorry. I interrupted you first. I do have what some might call a naive dream of you sitting down with Putin and Trump and negotiating a deal about a ceasefire and together, finding a path to long-term peace. I think this requires strength, requires negotiations. There are a lot of carrots and sticks here that can be used to make a real deal. Trump is very keen on making a deal and ready to negotiate.
No, sorry. I interrupted you first. I do have what some might call a naive dream of you sitting down with Putin and Trump and negotiating a deal about a ceasefire and together, finding a path to long-term peace. I think this requires strength, requires negotiations. There are a lot of carrots and sticks here that can be used to make a real deal. Trump is very keen on making a deal and ready to negotiate.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Can I ask you a question?
Can I ask you a question?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I just really want you and I to be on the same page. It’s very important to be in the same information space. Extremely important. Let’s talk a bit about the ceasefire. Let me describe the situation to you. In December 2019 in Normandy, in Paris at the Elysee Palace, Macron, Merkel, Putin and I agreed on the ceasefire. The U.S. wasn’t there and this, by the way, was a weak point of the meeting. If you’d like, we can later discuss why they weren’t there. It’s a security guarantee thing in general. It’s Germany’s position, et cetera. We agreed on an exchange of hostages, an all for all exchange. We made a deal to exchange everyone for everyone, I think you know that. There was also a meeting that lasted many hours, a meeting where we made a deal with him. Everyone was tired. It was just the two of us in the end and I proposed a ceasefire. By the way, no one in Ukraine believed. Few believed in the ceasefire and he wanted troop withdrawal.
I just really want you and I to be on the same page. It’s very important to be in the same information space. Extremely important. Let’s talk a bit about the ceasefire. Let me describe the situation to you. In December 2019 in Normandy, in Paris at the Elysee Palace, Macron, Merkel, Putin and I agreed on the ceasefire. The U.S. wasn’t there and this, by the way, was a weak point of the meeting. If you’d like, we can later discuss why they weren’t there. It’s a security guarantee thing in general. It’s Germany’s position, et cetera. We agreed on an exchange of hostages, an all for all exchange. We made a deal to exchange everyone for everyone, I think you know that. There was also a meeting that lasted many hours, a meeting where we made a deal with him. Everyone was tired. It was just the two of us in the end and I proposed a ceasefire. By the way, no one in Ukraine believed. Few believed in the ceasefire and he wanted troop withdrawal.
I calculated that if there were a withdrawal of troops from the line of contact the way Russians proposed, it would take 20 years. I proved it to him just in terms of time, square kilometers, namely the length of the line of contact or delimitation line, and we agreed on what I told him that it will not work out but I had many points because I was deeply involved in the issue. I was involved very deeply. It’s my thing in general. If I start doing something, I can’t stand there like that guy I spoke about with my ass out. I must be dressed. I must be prepared. I must be prepared better, better than anyone in front of me. You do sports, right?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I practiced for many years and we know what fights are like what boxing is, what Thai boxing is. This is what I did and I loved it very much. When you step into the ring, you understand everything pretty much, and so I stepped into it and I was definitely well-prepared but he wasn’t, no. He was not deeply involved in the process. What border? Where is it? How long will it take to disengage troops? Why wasn’t he involved you want to know? Because he wasn’t going to do any of this. This is what confused me. If you are not deeply involved in the issue, it’s as if you don’t really need the result. That’s what I think. So, what happened? We agreed that there will be gas continuation, gas transit in 2019. We agreed with him. This was the security for Europe. Merkel asked me for it and this was extremely important for Germany. We agreed with him. For him it was just money.
I practiced for many years and we know what fights are like what boxing is, what Thai boxing is. This is what I did and I loved it very much. When you step into the ring, you understand everything pretty much, and so I stepped into it and I was definitely well-prepared but he wasn’t, no. He was not deeply involved in the process. What border? Where is it? How long will it take to disengage troops? Why wasn’t he involved you want to know? Because he wasn’t going to do any of this. This is what confused me. If you are not deeply involved in the issue, it’s as if you don’t really need the result. That’s what I think. So, what happened? We agreed that there will be gas continuation, gas transit in 2019. We agreed with him. This was the security for Europe. Merkel asked me for it and this was extremely important for Germany. We agreed with him. For him it was just money.
Secondly, we agreed on an exchange. For me, this was the most important thing. For them, gas was. For me, was the people and this is a fact because I wanted to have a humanitarian advantage so that there would be further meetings that would lead to sustained peace. And third, ceasefire. Ceasefire, you spoke about. What happened? The gas contract was signed because he needed it. And by the way, he knew everything about it. As for exchange, we took the first step and exchanged the people. Regarding the ceasefire, well, they started killing us in about a month, so I called him and I told him, “We agreed on a ceasefire, didn’t we?” Well, it wasn’t a piece of toilet paper, was it? This is serious business or so it seemed. It really was serious. “Merkel, Macron, you and I, we all agreed on this together. A ceasefire is important, isn’t it?”
Not for New Year’s because everyone was celebrating New Year’s. And now, they’re offering us a Christmas ceasefire. It’s all the same. A ceasefire for two, three days just to get some praise but this isn’t a performance. This isn’t some kind of theater. No, this is about people’s lives and that’s what happened. After that, I called him a few more times. I think I only had two, three calls with him in total. I asked him for a ceasefire. He told me it couldn’t be. We will figure it out now. People from the occupied territory, Russians and separatists, they were all there together. They continued to shoot and kill our people. Yes, the front lines were quiet but they killed people. They were killing people and I kept calling him.
I called again and again, but there was nothing until after a few months the Russians stopped answering the phone. We did not have any contact since. I wanted another meeting like we had in Normandy. I wanted the next meeting. I wanted to find a solution but the Russians refused. We tried to make it happen through various European countries and not only European, but the Russians refused. They passed along some kind of bullshit, made excuses. They didn’t want it. Meanwhile, they were sending their snipers. We had evidence, living proof, even video evidence because some of them were captured back then. Those were the snipers in training. They were training them. They were training them. And later, those snipers operated in Syria and Africa. These snipers were training in our country in the east. Ukrainians were living targets.
They were shooting from the other side, killing people, women, people, children. They were shooting. It was a hunt. By the way, it was in the Russian-speaking region in the east where according to him, everyone is speaking Russian. That’s where they were shooting. Where the situation currently is the most tense. They killed people. We sent this information, sent pictures, we sent them to the UN, sent them everywhere. We worked very hard, very persistently. I met with everyone but who thought of Ukraine back then. They didn’t notice it much. They didn’t pay much attention to Crimea being illegally occupied either. To be honest, the United States of America too, everyone was somewhat silent about this issue. That’s how it was. It was like that before a full-scale war.
I want to ask you a question about the ceasefire. For example, in Mariupol today, there are American and Ukrainian journalists, and everyone will tell you who has contact now with Mariupol, who fled from there in the last minutes, just before the occupation or who was able to leave to escape after the occupation? Chernov, who won an Oscar was among them, and the journalists that left Mariupol, they are here by the way. We had a conversation. They will tell you that 20,000, 30,000 civilians were tortured and buried there. We do not know the number of victims. People who didn’t want to work with them, who refused to cooperate with them, people who went on strikes to protest, people who did not want to work with the Russians who occupied Mariupol. And this is one example just with this city. And I have a question for you. What about the millions of children?
I will ask you in Russian so that you hear this without delay, what about the millions of children over there? What if we just arranged a ceasefire without understanding what would happen next without understanding what will happen to Ukraine’s security guarantees? What about the millions of children in the occupied territories? What should I tell them? What am I to tell them? What is it I should tell them? What? Whatever? Hey, all of you over there, see ya. And those tens of thousands of people buried there, they were… Is that what we want? Are we ready to forgive them for this? We must at least take the first step. If this is a ceasefire, we must know that there is a security guarantee for the part of Ukraine under our control. We need it so that he will not come back. This is very important.
What do we say to the people who live in those territories? These are millions of people. Did you know that since 2014 in Donetsk, in the Crimea, this is happening in Melitopol as well as in Berdiansk now, they are making all these kids of drafting age go and fight? And if they don’t go, they will be killed. So, you understand what’s happening? That is why a ceasefire, everything I said, what I wish for, and I believe in President Trump’s power to use all of this information to come up with a way to make Ukraine strong. Why am I saying that? I will give you an example. President Trump will be in the same situation as I was in 2019. Precisely the same situation. I want to end the war. We want a lasting piece for Ukraine. We must do this, the ceasefire, exchange people, and then diplomatically return all territories. And we will do this through diplomacy. What will happen next with-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
… to diplomacy. What will happen next with President Trump? If the ceasefire happens without security guarantees, at least for the territory we control, what does he get? If he manages to make a ceasefire deal, and three months later, Putin launches a new wave of attacks, what will Trump look like? What will Ukraine look like? What will everyone look like? Putin will just do it, and why would Putin do it? Because today he’s afraid of Trump. But once Trump manages, for example, to do a ceasefire deal without serious security guarantees for Ukraine, he will give a pass to Putin. Not that he wants to, no, he does not want that. I believe in what he says. But he will give Putin an opportunity, because in Putin’s head, he wants me to fight with Trump.
… to diplomacy. What will happen next with President Trump? If the ceasefire happens without security guarantees, at least for the territory we control, what does he get? If he manages to make a ceasefire deal, and three months later, Putin launches a new wave of attacks, what will Trump look like? What will Ukraine look like? What will everyone look like? Putin will just do it, and why would Putin do it? Because today he’s afraid of Trump. But once Trump manages, for example, to do a ceasefire deal without serious security guarantees for Ukraine, he will give a pass to Putin. Not that he wants to, no, he does not want that. I believe in what he says. But he will give Putin an opportunity, because in Putin’s head, he wants me to fight with Trump.
Putin’s plan is to end the occupation of our territory. This is in his sick head and I’m absolutely sure of this. That is why I told you don’t wait for Putin to want to stop the war. Pressure him so that he is forced to stop the war, that’s important.
Lex Fridman
It’s important to say that what you said about the children is a tragedy. War is hell, but let me say again, we must find a path to peace.
It’s important to say that what you said about the children is a tragedy. War is hell, but let me say again, we must find a path to peace.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
There is one.
There is one.
Lex Fridman
What is it?
What is it?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
There is one. Before ceasefire, strong Ukraine. Strong Ukraine’s position, yes, we can speak about it with Trump. For me, we can speak about security guarantees, but a quick step is NATO. A partial membership, NATO, yes, I understand. I understand Trump’s feelings about NATO. I heard him, he’s thinking through all of it, of course.
There is one. Before ceasefire, strong Ukraine. Strong Ukraine’s position, yes, we can speak about it with Trump. For me, we can speak about security guarantees, but a quick step is NATO. A partial membership, NATO, yes, I understand. I understand Trump’s feelings about NATO. I heard him, he’s thinking through all of it, of course.
But anyway, yes, NATO is a strong security guarantee for all the people, for us, part of security guarantee. The second part is the arms aid package, which we will not use. If a ceasefire works, nobody will use the weapons. For what? But it has to stay. But with all due respect to the United States and to the administration, not like before, I don’t want the same situation like we had with Biden.
I ask for sanctions now, please, and weapons now and then we will see. If they start it again, of course, we’ll be happy if you’ll give us more and you will stand with us shoulder to shoulder. Of course, that is right, but, but it’s different when you have weapons. Putin wouldn’t have been able to occupy so much territory.
It was very difficult for us to push him out, but we didn’t have weapons before and that is the same situation. It can be the same situation. I’m just sharing this with you, like I said at the very beginning, I want to be very honest with you and with your audience. Yes, it’s true. If we do not have security guarantees, Putin will come again.
NATO and security guarantees
Lex Fridman
To make it clear, let’s describe the idea that you are speaking about. I would like to offer you other ideas too.
To make it clear, let’s describe the idea that you are speaking about. I would like to offer you other ideas too.
But right now, your idea is that NATO accepts Ukraine, minus the five regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Just so you understand the situation, the invitation to NATO is legislatively issued to Ukraine. So to us, all those territories are still Ukraine, but NATO so far can only act in the part that is under Ukrainian control. This can be negotiated, I’m sure about that. Yes, this would not be a great success for us, but if we see a diplomatic way to end the war, this is one of the ways.
Just so you understand the situation, the invitation to NATO is legislatively issued to Ukraine. So to us, all those territories are still Ukraine, but NATO so far can only act in the part that is under Ukrainian control. This can be negotiated, I’m sure about that. Yes, this would not be a great success for us, but if we see a diplomatic way to end the war, this is one of the ways.
So it is, sorry, that is a start. Secondly, weapons, arms aid package, I’m not ready to discuss this publicly right now. It’s all written down and President Trump might have seen it or not, but we’ve got no secrets from him, yes. But mostly it depends on the willingness of the United States, because some of it will come from the EU, some from the United States, of course, together.
So not just from the United States, no, no, no, we need unity with this package, so the package and sanctions. Yes, sanctions, but I think it’s in the interest of all the smart people to not have Russian energy on the market in general, so he has to stop it. That’s all, it’s fine. American oil, American gas is okay. Why not? And it’s cheaper, so it will be cheaper for the whole world.
The money will go to the United States and I think he will be happy, and the president and your people will be happy, but it’s your decision. I’m just sharing. Yes, and cheaper oil. So Putin won’t have so much money for the war, and that’s it.
Lex Fridman
But this is difficult because it’s a lot. You’re saying to continue the sanctions on Russia, to accept Ukraine into NATO, I need to ask you some difficult questions about this.
But this is difficult because it’s a lot. You’re saying to continue the sanctions on Russia, to accept Ukraine into NATO, I need to ask you some difficult questions about this.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, go on.
Yes, go on.
Lex Fridman
I trust and respect your words today. Many people respect and love you in America. Trump respects you.
I trust and respect your words today. Many people respect and love you in America. Trump respects you.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Loves me.
Loves me.
Lex Fridman
Oh, come on now. Remember, last time you corrected me when I said that you love Javier Millet, you said, “No, no, no, I respect him.”
Oh, come on now. Remember, last time you corrected me when I said that you love Javier Millet, you said, “No, no, no, I respect him.”
So let’s not talk about love today, but could we talk seriously about guaranteeing Russia’s security?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Okay. Can I interview you a little? Question is what land is the war happening on and where did it start? On our soil, on our territory, international law was violated. The sovereignty of our country was violated, civilians were killed. Tens of thousands of our people were taken hostage, and everyone will tell you this happened.
Okay. Can I interview you a little? Question is what land is the war happening on and where did it start? On our soil, on our territory, international law was violated. The sovereignty of our country was violated, civilians were killed. Tens of thousands of our people were taken hostage, and everyone will tell you this happened.
This is what happened when I speak with the Global South, which is trying to balance the two sides because of the history, because of their roots and because of their shared economic interests with Russia in the past. And now, of course, when you talk to them, they are speaking a little bit like you. They’re balancing a little bit. Yeah, a little bit in between, but we will work on it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
It’s our first meeting. During the second one, you will be more on our side, but it’s just-
It’s our first meeting. During the second one, you will be more on our side, but it’s just-
Lex Fridman
You’re very convincing, very charismatic.
You’re very convincing, very charismatic.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah, thank you. But when I speak with them, when I speak, it’s very important. Even with their balancing attitude towards the war, they all recognize that this is a war. This is not just internal conflict, this is a full-scale war that began, that Putin began. And all of them, all of them, if you talk to them, they say…
Yeah, thank you. But when I speak with them, when I speak, it’s very important. Even with their balancing attitude towards the war, they all recognize that this is a war. This is not just internal conflict, this is a full-scale war that began, that Putin began. And all of them, all of them, if you talk to them, they say…
But then they all recognize that, that it’s his own big mistake, Putin’s mistake, and that he’s not right. That’s why I said, “No, no. He’s not right, and you have to begin from this.” If you begin at the middle, between Ukraine and Russia, of course, we can speak like this. You are in the middle and say, “Okay, what’s going on? There is a fight. Where is the fight?”
It’s not the fight like in Europe when Napoleon is fighting against somebody in the middle of Europe. No, this is not in the middle of somewhere of the planet. Not the planet, it’s concretely on our land. So one country with one army, one person came to another. That’s it, it’s very clear.
Lex Fridman
Again, I would like us to find a path to peace, so let us nevertheless try to start in the middle. What other ideas do you think might? You are a very intelligent person and-
Again, I would like us to find a path to peace, so let us nevertheless try to start in the middle. What other ideas do you think might? You are a very intelligent person and-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Your Russian isn’t that good either, and I told you that this is only our first meeting.
Your Russian isn’t that good either, and I told you that this is only our first meeting.
Lex Fridman
My English is not very good either.
My English is not very good either.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Your English is very good.
Your English is very good.
Lex Fridman
Thank you. To be honest, I’m terrible at speaking in every language. Well, there are other ideas. For instance, sorry to say this, it sounds crazy.
Thank you. To be honest, I’m terrible at speaking in every language. Well, there are other ideas. For instance, sorry to say this, it sounds crazy.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Please.
Please.
Lex Fridman
But what if both Ukraine and Russia are accepted into NATO?
But what if both Ukraine and Russia are accepted into NATO?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Putin himself spoke about Russia, maybe about NATO. What you just said is very correct. What are the guarantees for Russia? It’s not like I’m even interested what happens to them. To be honest, I don’t care what will happen to them in the future after the war ends, but these are our borders and we must understand what is going on there. Well, the NATO guarantees for Ukraine.
Putin himself spoke about Russia, maybe about NATO. What you just said is very correct. What are the guarantees for Russia? It’s not like I’m even interested what happens to them. To be honest, I don’t care what will happen to them in the future after the war ends, but these are our borders and we must understand what is going on there. Well, the NATO guarantees for Ukraine.
Actually, this is also a security guarantee for the Russians. Frankly, I talked about this many times before. Sorry, I’m speaking figuratively, but as an example, if you were a father who lost his children, a grown man. A grown man, a man, an adult, and the war has ended and he never got justice for real. For example, somebody decides to freeze support. We won’t give you anything.
You can’t fight. You can’t continue, so we stop when we stop without any guarantees, without any support, without financing, without okay. And nobody is held accountable, but the man lost his children. He will not get anything. None of the killers will be in prison. All the sanctions will be removed, and he lost his children, and we have thousands of such people.
Why do you think they will not go to Russia? We’ll find a way and will not kill the Russian soldiers there or somebody there. Why wouldn’t they? It’s human nature. It’s not about us, it’s everyone. Read American writers. Always after any war, if there is no justice for people, there must be punishment for the crime, it is only justice. How come my child was taken away? The war took him.
This is very scary. And even whether it was my son, who was fulfilling his constitutional duty, or simply a missile that struck a civilian child, and if there is no justice and the killers are not punished, why wouldn’t these people come back with hate? They will definitely come back. So when we talk about NATO, NATO is not only stopping Russia.
Do not forget, NATO is stopping us too, because there will not be justice for everyone. We know that NATO does not have the right to solve certain issues with war. NATO is a security alliance, it is protection, not brainwashing. What Putin claims that this is offensive is not true. NATO is a defensive alliance, a security alliance, and it is security for Russia.
Lex Fridman
But unfortunately, there are many options for peace that don’t involve NATO inviting Ukraine as a member. Can you imagine security guarantees without NATO membership?
But unfortunately, there are many options for peace that don’t involve NATO inviting Ukraine as a member. Can you imagine security guarantees without NATO membership?
For example, if America simply leaves NATO, I believe there is a high likelihood that Donald Trump would do such a thing.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I think it’s very bad for NATO. That’s the end, that is, that’s the death of NATO. It is a pity, because I think that it’s a very good alliance. Maybe not everything’s good there from the bureaucracy or money, et cetera, but totally countries who are in NATO, they don’t fight.
I think it’s very bad for NATO. That’s the end, that is, that’s the death of NATO. It is a pity, because I think that it’s a very good alliance. Maybe not everything’s good there from the bureaucracy or money, et cetera, but totally countries who are in NATO, they don’t fight.
There is no war on the land of any of these NATO countries. I think that is the answer. It works or not. It works politically or militarily, I don’t know, but it works. So without Trump, without the United States of America, there will not be NATO. That is the first, so and you say, “Can we imagine that?” That what?
Lex Fridman
That there could be security guarantee without.
That there could be security guarantee without.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, we don’t need guarantees without the United States. That’s it, because the United States is a very strong, powerful country. The United States puts the point. Of course, Putin said that it’s just the Soviet Union where, by the way, Ukraine was the second strong republic militarily, yes, by the way. But he, of course, always forgets about it.
No, we don’t need guarantees without the United States. That’s it, because the United States is a very strong, powerful country. The United States puts the point. Of course, Putin said that it’s just the Soviet Union where, by the way, Ukraine was the second strong republic militarily, yes, by the way. But he, of course, always forgets about it.
But during the World War II, without help of the United States, support of your troops, support of your industry. Industrially, militarily, without your money, without your people, Hitler could win, so the United States helped a lot. Of course, Europe, USSR, and of course, everybody fought. Everybody did a lot.
But without the United States, it couldn’t be such. I don’t use the word success, because I think that there is no war which ends successfully because this is a war. Seven figure losses, heavy losses in World War II, millions of people, and that’s why without the United States, security guarantees are not possible.
I mean these security guarantees, which can prevent Russian aggression. Of course, we have security guarantees bilaterally with some countries financing support of our internal military and defending, and humanitarian issues and demining, which is very important, in helping our children in the school networks. By the way, this is a very sensitive point.
How many bomb shelters? How many bomb shelters we built with the partners for the children? And it’s a pity that they are underground, but can you imagine their eyes when they came after COVID? You understand what does it mean COVID, but they had COVID and the war, and together they didn’t see each other for so many years.
And when they saw each other even underground, they were very happy and smiling. So we have such security guarantees, but it’s not enough to prevent. Yes, preventive measures also work to prevent the aggression of Putin.
Lex Fridman
Your English is better than my Russian. This is wonderful.
Your English is better than my Russian. This is wonderful.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I’m not sure.
I’m not sure.
Lex Fridman
I’m just giving you a compliment.
I’m just giving you a compliment.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thank you. No, no.
Thank you. No, no.
Lex Fridman
You’re supposed to do that kind of thing to a president.
You’re supposed to do that kind of thing to a president.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thank you so much.
Thank you so much.
Sitting down with Putin and Trump
Lex Fridman
Okay. Once again, without NATO guarantees, I have a dream that, let’s say, on January 25 or sometime at the end of January this year, you will sit down with Donald Trump, with Vladimir Putin.
Okay. Once again, without NATO guarantees, I have a dream that, let’s say, on January 25 or sometime at the end of January this year, you will sit down with Donald Trump, with Vladimir Putin.
And together negotiate a ceasefire with strict security guarantees and an agreement will be signed. What will this look like without NATO?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I will make it clear. So first of all, I think January 25th or some other day, well, you just call it January 25th and I don’t mind, it’s my birthday. And we sit down, first of all, with Trump. We agree with him on how we can stop the war, stop Putin. It is important for us to sit down with him.
I will make it clear. So first of all, I think January 25th or some other day, well, you just call it January 25th and I don’t mind, it’s my birthday. And we sit down, first of all, with Trump. We agree with him on how we can stop the war, stop Putin. It is important for us to sit down with him.
Secondly, it is very important for us that Europe, which is very important for us because we are part of Europe. And not only geographically, geopolitically, but also in the European Union where we will be. For us, it is very important that Europe also has a voice. It’s the second thing. It won’t be long because Europe will be looking at us and we’ll be looking at Trump.
And by the way, I now see that when I talk about something with Donald Trump, whether we meet in person or we just have a call, all the European leaders always ask, “How was it?” This shows the influence of Donald Trump, and this has never happened before with an American president. I tell you from my experience, this also gives you confidence that he can stop this war.
That is why we and Trump come first and Europe will support Ukraine’s position, because they understand that Ukraine has every right to have its voice heard in this because we are at war. Trump and I will come to an agreement. And then if, and I am sure that he can offer strong security guarantees together with Europe, and then we can talk to the Russians. That’s right.
Not just three of us sitting down at once, and you still talk to me like that? Do you know how? As if Putin wants to sit down and talk, but Ukraine does not. This is not true.
Lex Fridman
I think that yes, he is, in fact, ready to talk.
I think that yes, he is, in fact, ready to talk.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Did you talk to him?
Did you talk to him?
Lex Fridman
On the phone or what?
On the phone or what?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
How do you normally talk to him?
How do you normally talk to him?
Lex Fridman
I don’t know. Normally, by the sea, the same as with you. He invites you to the sea with me, just the three of us.
I don’t know. Normally, by the sea, the same as with you. He invites you to the sea with me, just the three of us.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no. One of us may drown.
No, no. One of us may drown.
Lex Fridman
Who? Are you good at swimming?
Who? Are you good at swimming?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, I’m a good swimmer.
Yes, I’m a good swimmer.
Lex Fridman
You’re a good swimmer. Well…
You’re a good swimmer. Well…
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
And I would like to add that if you have any contact with him, I just want to hear what happens then.
And I would like to add that if you have any contact with him, I just want to hear what happens then.
Lex Fridman
I have never talked to Vladimir Putin, but I have a feeling that he is ready, because Donald Trump is ready. I hope you’re ready, and this is not just a feeling, but a dream.
I have never talked to Vladimir Putin, but I have a feeling that he is ready, because Donald Trump is ready. I hope you’re ready, and this is not just a feeling, but a dream.
I have a dream here that the three of you will get together in a room and make peace, and I want to understand what it looks like. What security guarantees look like that will satisfy Ukraine, that will satisfy Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukraine needs security guarantees. First and foremost, we are in danger, that is why they are called so. This is no joke to me. Let’s take a few steps back. Interesting, why are security guarantees a strong position of Ukraine, strong weapons and so on, so important? I will give you a little history lesson, although I think you have prepared yourself and know everything perfectly well.
Ukraine needs security guarantees. First and foremost, we are in danger, that is why they are called so. This is no joke to me. Let’s take a few steps back. Interesting, why are security guarantees a strong position of Ukraine, strong weapons and so on, so important? I will give you a little history lesson, although I think you have prepared yourself and know everything perfectly well.
You can correct me on that. Yes, Ukraine had security guarantees. The Budapest Memorandum, nuclear weapons are the security guarantees that Ukraine had. Ukraine had nuclear weapons. I do not want to characterize it as good or bad. Today, the fact that we do not have them is bad. Why? Because this is war.
Today we are at war because you have unleashed the hands of a nuclear power. A nuclear power is fighting against us, against Ukraine, and doing what it wants. By the way, even you are now talking about ceasefire, just a ceasefire. Maybe give flowers to Putin, maybe to say, “Thank you so much for these years. That was a great part of my life.” No, we are not just ready for this.
Why? The Budapest Memorandum, nuclear weapons, this is what we had. Ukraine used them for protection. This does not mean that someone attacked us. That doesn’t mean that we would have used it. We had that opportunity. These were our security guarantees. Why am I talking about this in detail? Because if you take the Budapest Memorandum, by the way, I discussed this with President Trump.
We have not finished this conversation yet. We will continue it. Regarding the Budapest Memorandum, the Budapest Memorandum included security guarantees for Ukraine at first, three, three. The most important security guarantors for Ukraine, three strategic friends and partners of Ukraine. This was in agreement. United States of America, Russia, Britain, France, and China joined.
There were five states that these are not even security guarantees. We now understand that this is not a guarantee of security, because on the one hand, these are security guarantees, but there was an English word, as far as I understand, assurance. It is translated as assurance, assurance, right? And in Russian, it’ll be and what assurance?
That is give up nuclear weapons because you were under pressure of the US and Russia for Ukraine to give them up. These two powers were exerting pressure. These two states negotiated to ensure that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine agreed. These are the largest states. This is the nuclear five that does not even provide security guarantees.
Now we just need to find these people, and we just need to put in jail all of those who frankly invented all this. So confidence, assurance, assurance that Ukraine will be territorially integral with its sovereignty. It was a piece of paper. If you are curious, by the way, that after occupying part of our Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine sent diplomats three times.
I don’t think I remember, three times within a few years, we sent letters to all security guarantors, to all members of the Budapest Memorandum. What did they send? That what was written on the piece of paper, consultations, Ukraine holds consultations. If it’s territorial, integrity is violated and everyone should be in consultation. Everyone must come.
Everyone must meet urgently, USA, Britain, Russia, France, China. Did anyone come, you ask? No. Did anyone reply to these letters, official letters? They are all recorded by diplomats. Did anyone conduct consultations? No, and why not? They didn’t give a fuck. This is understandable in Russian, that as Russia didn’t give a damn, neither did all the other security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
None of them gave a damn about this country, these people, these security guarantees, et cetera. We take a break, this will be a Budapest Memorandum. The last time with me, imagine how many years it was with me in February 2022? In February 2022, the war began, a full-scale war. Letters for consultations have been sent. No one answers. Next, we are taking a break from the Budapest Memorandum.
The question is simple about Budapest. Can we trust this? No. Whichever country out of these five sat at the negotiating table, just a piece of paper. Believe me, we will save you. No. Another, this is a train. This is a train with wastepaper, with security guarantees, which Ukraine has been riding for many years. The second car on this train is the Minsk agreements.
The Normandy Format and the Minsk agreements where it was written, where the signatories were, the United States of America was no longer there. I understand that Obama was here at the time, and as far as I know, I think they were simply not interested in what happened to Ukraine, and where it was in general, where it was located. Well, somewhere there, part of something.
People, well, people and let it be, let it be with these people. The United States simply did not participate. In the Minsk agreements, there are no claims to the US because they were not guarantors. Where is the claim? A step back. 2008, Bucharest, everyone has already learned from the Budapest Memorandum. Bucharest, 2008.
Bucharest, Mr. Bush, President of the United States, Republican says that Ukraine should be in NATO. This is the voice of Republicans. Check it out, Ukraine should be in NATO. Everybody’s looking at the US always, all in favor. Who is against? Merkel, so she opposes and she forced everyone not to give Ukraine an invitation to join NATO because that would be a step.
Seriously, Republicans were in favor, the US was in favor, because Republicans and Bush were not afraid of anyone. They were not afraid of anyone, and they knew that Ukraine rightly wanted to join NATO. She chooses so. And what is the question? Well, people made their choice. Well, and the Russians will not look that way. That was not the case then. Why? Because the Russians were different.
Next, Minsk, we didn’t succeed. After the Minsk agreements, as I told you, hundreds of meetings were held. I have had hundreds of meetings since 2019. We could not think about a ceasefire. A ceasefire is our offer, this is not somebody’s suggestion. This is mine, I would like. I wanted to. In Ukraine, society was divided. Not everyone wanted to, half did not want to.
Half were against, half were in favor. Some of them shouted, “Do not believe it.” Some of them shouted, “Believe it.” I am the president of Ukraine. I was given a mandate of trust by 70% of the population to take appropriate steps and I made them. This is not a joke, we’ll just sit the three of us. I am simply telling you what is. This is how can I tell you?
These meetings must be serious and prepared, and prepared with those who want peace. Ukraine wants peace, US wants peace. We have to sit down with Trump, and that is 100%, first and foremost, number one. Moreover, he told me on the phone that he is waiting for us to meet, and there will be an official visit. And my visit would be the first or one of the first to him.
And for him, this topic is very important. I know that he has his own matters, American issues, I understand. I heard his election program, but regarding international affairs, I think our issue is one of the most pressing issues for President Trump. Therefore, I believe very much I trust his words, and I hope we will meet again. We need to prepare.
We have many plans to build on, and they exist and they are supported by many countries, but we need his vision. He needs to look at all these details, but his vision, please, because he can stop Putin because Putin is afraid of him. That’s a fact, but Trump is a president of a democratic country, and he does not come for life. He is not Putin. He will not come for 25 years.
He will come for his term. Please, tell me. Well, for example, he came for four years and for the fifth year, Putin came with a war. Will it make Trump feel better that there was no war during his time, and that Ukraine was destroyed after him? Why destroyed? Putin is whoever, a killer, whoever, but not a fool. He will be prepared. He knows our mistakes.
He understands how we defeated his army after the invasion began. He realized that this was not a Soviet war, and that this would not happen with us. He will prepare. He will let everything into arms production. He will have lots of weapons, and there will be a very large army. And you think that after such humiliation, four years without a war, he did not finish us.
He will return and fight only against Ukraine. He will destroy everything around. And if you say there is a risk that President Trump will withdraw from NATO, for example, this is a decision of the United States. I’m simply saying that if it does, Putin will destroy Europe. Calculate the size of army in Europe.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Calculate the size of army in Europe. It’s just that I say it for a reason. Do the calculation. Why did Hitler conquer all of Europe then? Almost. Just count, remember his armies of millions. Calculate what Europe has. What are the largest armies? We have the largest army. The Ukrainian army is the largest in Europe. The second place after us is four times smaller than us.
Calculate the size of army in Europe. It’s just that I say it for a reason. Do the calculation. Why did Hitler conquer all of Europe then? Almost. Just count, remember his armies of millions. Calculate what Europe has. What are the largest armies? We have the largest army. The Ukrainian army is the largest in Europe. The second place after us is four times smaller than us.
Lex Fridman
France?
France?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes. 200,000. I think the French have about 200,000. We have 980.
Yes. 200,000. I think the French have about 200,000. We have 980.
Lex Fridman
So this powerful coalition of European nations.
So this powerful coalition of European nations.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That will not be enough.
That will not be enough.
Lex Fridman
Yes, it’s not going to be enough. But you’re a smart man. There’s a lot of ideas. Partnerships with global South India, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, [foreign language 01:36:57] partnerships, political partnerships. It all protects you.
Yes, it’s not going to be enough. But you’re a smart man. There’s a lot of ideas. Partnerships with global South India, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, [foreign language 01:36:57] partnerships, political partnerships. It all protects you.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
First of all, look at one example. North Korea. Just look at this example. 12,000 has arrived. Today, 3,800 killed or wounded. They can bring more. 30-40,000 or maybe 500. They can bring many people. Why? Because they have order, autocracy and everything. Can Europe bring people together? No. Will Europe be able to build an army consisting of two to 3 million people? No, Europe will not want to do this. And for what? We definitely don’t want a world war with you. There is no such purpose. There is no such purpose as gathering everyone.
First of all, look at one example. North Korea. Just look at this example. 12,000 has arrived. Today, 3,800 killed or wounded. They can bring more. 30-40,000 or maybe 500. They can bring many people. Why? Because they have order, autocracy and everything. Can Europe bring people together? No. Will Europe be able to build an army consisting of two to 3 million people? No, Europe will not want to do this. And for what? We definitely don’t want a world war with you. There is no such purpose. There is no such purpose as gathering everyone.
We do not want any war. We want to stop the Russians and they invite North Korean soldiers. Invited. Their faces are burned. They themselves burn their faces. Those who cannot escape, injured or killed. There’s a video. Everything I’m telling you, there is evidence of this so that they are not recognizable. Right? What does it mean? It’s out of values which share Europe. Europe counts. It means that those guys, they don’t count. [foreign language 01:38:54] It’s count. Yes. They don’t count the number of people. That is the answer.
Can they move more? Yes. Can they move dozens of thousands? Yes, because we see what they have. Last year, for example, Europe gave us 1 million artillery rounds. We produced a lot ourselves, but they gave us initiative. It was initiative. 1 million artillery rounds and of 155 and et cetera. We produce more but North Korea gave Putin 3.7. Just gave him. So he also has a deficit for today. It means he needs what? He needs time.
Compromise and leverage
Lex Fridman
But the number of soldiers…
But the number of soldiers…
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And the number of artillery rounds is not everything. As you have said. Let’s say Donald Trump guarantees security for four years. You can form partnerships with India, with Saudi Arabia that enforce punishment to stick on oil prices, for example, if any aggressive action is taken. You can actually even build the… I’ve met a lot of incredible Ukrainian tech people, IT people. You could build great companies that form partnerships with the United States, that form partnerships with China, and that is a big leverage against aggression of however many million artillery rounds. And that, a sheet of paper, you don’t need a sheet of paper of protection.
And the number of artillery rounds is not everything. As you have said. Let’s say Donald Trump guarantees security for four years. You can form partnerships with India, with Saudi Arabia that enforce punishment to stick on oil prices, for example, if any aggressive action is taken. You can actually even build the… I’ve met a lot of incredible Ukrainian tech people, IT people. You could build great companies that form partnerships with the United States, that form partnerships with China, and that is a big leverage against aggression of however many million artillery rounds. And that, a sheet of paper, you don’t need a sheet of paper of protection.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ah, that’s you. Well, when you speak in English. You don’t even need answers because when you now are talking, you already answered on all the questions. The first one is that during this time you need just cooperation. A lot of money for this military industry. In Ukraine or in Europe, with India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, you need a lot of money. So the question is where you will get it. My answer was to Trump. I said this is one of the security guarantees. Take 300 billions of frozen Russian assets. We will take it. Take money, what we need for our interior production, and we will buy all the weapons from the United States.
Ah, that’s you. Well, when you speak in English. You don’t even need answers because when you now are talking, you already answered on all the questions. The first one is that during this time you need just cooperation. A lot of money for this military industry. In Ukraine or in Europe, with India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, you need a lot of money. So the question is where you will get it. My answer was to Trump. I said this is one of the security guarantees. Take 300 billions of frozen Russian assets. We will take it. Take money, what we need for our interior production, and we will buy all the weapons from the United States.
We don’t need gifts from the United States. It will be very good for your industry, for the United States. We will put money there. Russian money, not Ukrainian, not European. Russian money, Russian assets. They have to pay for this. We will put it and we will make it. This is one of security guarantees. Yes, of course. Because this is a military guarantee. Yes. But then the second you said that energy price and a lot of sanctions on products and the Russian shadow fleet and etc. That is the second answer we spoke about before. Yes put more sanctions on them. More sanctions. It’s okay, but not to take off sanctions.
Lex Fridman
It’s okay with you, but it’s not going to be okay with the president of Russia.
It’s okay with you, but it’s not going to be okay with the president of Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, but I’m not thinking how it’ll be very good for him. He’s still a killer.
Yes, but I’m not thinking how it’ll be very good for him. He’s still a killer.
Lex Fridman
I understand, but unfortunately the reality is that a compromise is needed in order to reach an agreement.
I understand, but unfortunately the reality is that a compromise is needed in order to reach an agreement.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
So in your understanding, the fact that he is not in jail after all the murders, he’s not in jail assuming all the murders and no one in the world is able to put him in his place, send him to prison. Do you think this is a small compromise?
So in your understanding, the fact that he is not in jail after all the murders, he’s not in jail assuming all the murders and no one in the world is able to put him in his place, send him to prison. Do you think this is a small compromise?
Lex Fridman
This is not a small compromise. And to forgive him will not be a small compromise.
This is not a small compromise. And to forgive him will not be a small compromise.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
To forgive. No one will forgive. It is absolutely impossible to forgive him. We cannot get into the head and soul of a person who lost their family. Nobody never will accept this. Absolutely impossible. I don’t know. Do you have children?
To forgive. No one will forgive. It is absolutely impossible to forgive him. We cannot get into the head and soul of a person who lost their family. Nobody never will accept this. Absolutely impossible. I don’t know. Do you have children?
Lex Fridman
No, not yet. But I would like to.
No, not yet. But I would like to.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes. God bless. And this is the most important thing in life, and they simply took away the most precious thing from you. Will you ask who ruined your life before going to rip their head off? I’m just curious. They took your child away. Are you going to ask who did this? And they will answer that that dude did this. You will say, “Oh, well then there are no questions.” No, no, no. You will go fucking hell and bite their head off and it will be fair. Can murderers be forgiven? That’s why you make security guarantees. What I told you, for those who are here and what we control and what will not happen.
Yes. God bless. And this is the most important thing in life, and they simply took away the most precious thing from you. Will you ask who ruined your life before going to rip their head off? I’m just curious. They took your child away. Are you going to ask who did this? And they will answer that that dude did this. You will say, “Oh, well then there are no questions.” No, no, no. You will go fucking hell and bite their head off and it will be fair. Can murderers be forgiven? That’s why you make security guarantees. What I told you, for those who are here and what we control and what will not happen.
And that those who lost, we will never forget in a matter of time. But when you gave us NATO, I just said this means that after a while, everything I said about NATO. After a while, Ukraine will not go against Russia and Russia will not go against Ukraine because you are in NATO. I am just saying is not that a compromise? NATO is a compromise. This is not just a security guarantee, in my opinion. Look, when rockets were attacking Israel and Israel is not in NATO. NATO countries, aircrafts were deployed. The air defense worked, operated by different Middle Eastern countries.
These are also security guarantees. And by the way, Israel has nuclear weapons. So why do they need NATO when in fact they have more than NATO has? The American, British and French aviation stepped in. There was ADA. I don’t remember from Jordan. Listen, thousands of missiles were shot down that way. What is this? So it’s a guarantee of safety. It’s just that it’s not called NATO. Is some Uncle Vova irritated by the word NATO? There’s a problem with the word and I think he’s simply irritated by people who are alive and living here.
Putin and Russia
Lex Fridman
If you believe this, it will be very difficult to negotiate. If you think that the president of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in his country. And he conducts, yes, destructive military actions.
If you believe this, it will be very difficult to negotiate. If you think that the president of a country is completely crazy, it is really hard to come to an agreement with him. You have to look at him as a serious person who loves his country and loves the people in his country. And he conducts, yes, destructive military actions.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Who are you talking about now? Who loves his country?
Who are you talking about now? Who loves his country?
Lex Fridman
Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love his country?
Putin. Do you think he doesn’t love his country?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No. What is his country? He happened to consider Ukraine, his country. What is his country? Explain it. Tomorrow he will say that it’s America. No pity for the Chechens. Do they look like Russians? Do they speak Russian? Of course, they learn in schools like anywhere there’s been Russification. Who are the Chechens? A different people, another faith, other people, another language. A million eliminated. And eliminated how? How did he kill them? With love? I know fuck by hugging. In Ukrainian, as we say, “Strangling by hugging. I love you so, so much. I love you so much that I want to kill you.” That’s his love.
No. What is his country? He happened to consider Ukraine, his country. What is his country? Explain it. Tomorrow he will say that it’s America. No pity for the Chechens. Do they look like Russians? Do they speak Russian? Of course, they learn in schools like anywhere there’s been Russification. Who are the Chechens? A different people, another faith, other people, another language. A million eliminated. And eliminated how? How did he kill them? With love? I know fuck by hugging. In Ukrainian, as we say, “Strangling by hugging. I love you so, so much. I love you so much that I want to kill you.” That’s his love.
And that’s not love. You are mistaken. He does not love his people. He loves his inner circle. It’s only a small part of the people. He doesn’t love them. Why? I’ll explain. You cannot send your people to another land knowing that they will die. Children, my daughter, she is 20 years old. For me, This is a child. She’s already an adult of course, but she’s a child. The boys he sends are 18 years old. They are children. He sends them. It’s not that fascists came to his land and he needs to defend it. He came to ours and he sent them Chechnya. He sent them Syria, he sent them Africa. He sent them Georgia.
He sent them Moldova. Transnistria, that was before him. Fine, we can leave that aside. He has enough sins of his own. And then there’s Ukraine, the largest part. 788,000 killed or wounded Russians. He calls them all Russians. Even those who don’t know how to speak Russian on his territory of Russia, everything they’ve enslaved. Yes. Proud [foreign language 01:48:48]. So I wonder, is that love? What love is this? And for what? Does he love his people? No. Does he love his land? His country is bigger than America. How much land do you need? America is huge. America is simply an outstanding country. Outstanding country.
Russia is bigger. Well, just bigger. So ask yourself, does he love them? What is he doing and what does he love? Do you think he’s been everywhere in his Russia? It’s impossible to get around it. He hasn’t been everywhere. He just hasn’t.
Lex Fridman
Well, I believe that Donald Trump loves America and I don’t think he has been to every single American city.
Well, I believe that Donald Trump loves America and I don’t think he has been to every single American city.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, no, no. I saw his rallies. So many rallies. No, no. Let’s be honest. Let’s be honest. He had it and I saw it and it’s very difficult. I mean he’s not 18. Yes, but he’s strong and this is his will. Everywhere where the war is, I’m sure, I pray to God it never will be on your land. Yes. And I’m sure that it will not be, but I’m sure that if you have in some region the problems, how to say, earthquake, hurricane you have it all. Well, I’m sure that President Trump would be there after one day, two or three days. I don’t know the security of all these things, but he will be. Otherwise, how will people look at him?
No, no, no. I saw his rallies. So many rallies. No, no. Let’s be honest. Let’s be honest. He had it and I saw it and it’s very difficult. I mean he’s not 18. Yes, but he’s strong and this is his will. Everywhere where the war is, I’m sure, I pray to God it never will be on your land. Yes. And I’m sure that it will not be, but I’m sure that if you have in some region the problems, how to say, earthquake, hurricane you have it all. Well, I’m sure that President Trump would be there after one day, two or three days. I don’t know the security of all these things, but he will be. Otherwise, how will people look at him?
Yes, of course he will. Of course the same about me. I’m not comparing myself with him. I’m just where it is difficult for people, I have to come. The next question is very simple. Region, Kursk region. The operation there. Was Putin in Kursk during four months? No.
Lex Fridman
Listen, I have tremendous respect for you, admiration for many reasons. One of which is you stayed in Kiev and another one is that you visit the front and you talk to the soldiers in the front and you talk to people all across Ukraine. Absolutely tremendous respect for that. And not enough people say that. I had a conversation with Tucker Carlson for example, and I said that, “You’re hero for staying in Kiev.” And he said, “Well, he just did a thing that every leader should do.” But I think not enough leaders do the thing that every leader should do. So tremendous respect. I agree with you totally.
Listen, I have tremendous respect for you, admiration for many reasons. One of which is you stayed in Kiev and another one is that you visit the front and you talk to the soldiers in the front and you talk to people all across Ukraine. Absolutely tremendous respect for that. And not enough people say that. I had a conversation with Tucker Carlson for example, and I said that, “You’re hero for staying in Kiev.” And he said, “Well, he just did a thing that every leader should do.” But I think not enough leaders do the thing that every leader should do. So tremendous respect. I agree with you totally.
Yes a leader should go to the front of a war. That said, America has waged wars all across the world. The war in Afghanistan and Iraq costs $9 trillion and killed over a million people. War is hell. And just because war is waged in terrible ways that it is does not mean the leader does not love their country. But I take your point. I once again have a dream that even if there’s hate, that you sit down with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and you find a way to peace. Let me ask you a question. What do you think?
Will there ever be a day when the Ukrainian people forgive the Russian people and both peoples will travel back and forth again and marry each other, rekindle and form friendships? Will there be such a time in the future?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I think history has long answered this question. I don’t know how be for us. It’ll be in the future without a doubt. History has shown this time. And again after every devastating war, one generation, one country recognizes that it was an aggressor. And it comes to realize this is impossible to forgive. This is precisely the kind of education they’ve had in Germany for many years. Even though these children had nothing to do with it. It was their grandfathers who participated and not all of them were participants of Nazi Germany’s war essentially against the world. Yes. And against life. And therefore they’re still apologizing.
I think history has long answered this question. I don’t know how be for us. It’ll be in the future without a doubt. History has shown this time. And again after every devastating war, one generation, one country recognizes that it was an aggressor. And it comes to realize this is impossible to forgive. This is precisely the kind of education they’ve had in Germany for many years. Even though these children had nothing to do with it. It was their grandfathers who participated and not all of them were participants of Nazi Germany’s war essentially against the world. Yes. And against life. And therefore they’re still apologizing.
Apologizing is not easy. They know that they were the aggressors, they were guilty. They do not look for compromise in history. Compromise in itself buys time. And they understand this. There are convicted murderers condemned both historically and by their own people. Reparations have been paid and security guarantees have been established by the way. And all this is done. And when all this is done and recognized, in any case, people develop relations with each other. That’s clear. But it can only happen the way it always has, always has in history. Russia will have to apologize. It will.
This will happen because they are guilty. They’re guilty. And as I told you, the guilty are different. Both those who participated and those who remain silent because silence is also about participating, in my opinion.
Donald Trump
Lex Fridman
Can I ask about Donald Trump? We’ve already mentioned him a lot, but let’s focus there. What do you admire? What do you respect about Donald Trump? And also maybe why do you think he won overwhelmingly the election in 2024, that American people chose him?
Can I ask about Donald Trump? We’ve already mentioned him a lot, but let’s focus there. What do you admire? What do you respect about Donald Trump? And also maybe why do you think he won overwhelmingly the election in 2024, that American people chose him?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
He was stronger. He was much more stronger than Kamala Harris. Biden first and then Kamala Harris. Yes. He showed that he can intellectually and physically. It wasn’t important point to show that if you want to have a strong country, you have to be strong. And he was strong. And this number of rallies, what I said is not a simple thing. He showed that he can. He’s strong. So he doesn’t have any questions with his, I mean this age and et cetera. Nothing. He is young. He is young here and his brain works. So I think it’s important, very important. And of course a lot of interior questions.
He was stronger. He was much more stronger than Kamala Harris. Biden first and then Kamala Harris. Yes. He showed that he can intellectually and physically. It wasn’t important point to show that if you want to have a strong country, you have to be strong. And he was strong. And this number of rallies, what I said is not a simple thing. He showed that he can. He’s strong. So he doesn’t have any questions with his, I mean this age and et cetera. Nothing. He is young. He is young here and his brain works. So I think it’s important, very important. And of course a lot of interior questions.
I understand the prices and et cetera. Economic questions and you have the questions with other things.
Lex Fridman
Immigration.
Immigration.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A lot of things. I understand. So maybe he answered on those questions, which people had.
A lot of things. I understand. So maybe he answered on those questions, which people had.
Lex Fridman
One of the questions-
One of the questions-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That he will finish the war.
That he will finish the war.
Lex Fridman
That he will finish the war.
That he will finish the war.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
For me, this is the main question, but I said that for him, he’s the President of the United States. For him, his priority is his questions in the United States. And I understand and I respect it, but the second he was speaking about the world, yes, he said that he will finish the war. And I hope very much because I think that our people really support his idea. And that’s why I said it is for me. It’s very, very important to have enough people around him who will have connections with him, with the right things.
For me, this is the main question, but I said that for him, he’s the President of the United States. For him, his priority is his questions in the United States. And I understand and I respect it, but the second he was speaking about the world, yes, he said that he will finish the war. And I hope very much because I think that our people really support his idea. And that’s why I said it is for me. It’s very, very important to have enough people around him who will have connections with him, with the right things.
For me, the truth is very right things. What’s going on really in the battlefield, what’s going on really with Putin and Russia, what he really wants and that is just to have it. Before any decision, you have to be at the same level of information. Really we need him to know everything from us, from you, from people in Ukraine, from people around who are really afraid. Afraid that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war, afraid that he will come back with his aggression.
Lex Fridman
So first of all, I should mention that our conversation today will be translated and dubbed into Ukrainian, English, Russian, other languages, Spanish. So you’re in your voice. So there are great guys originally from Poland. It’s a company called ElevenLabs. They’ve trained an AI. Artificial intelligence sounds truly remarkable in your voice. You have the freedom to speak in any language you choose, but no matter what, you will always find yourself returning to speaking in Ukrainian. That is, when you talk about Donald Trump, you can do it in Ukrainian or Russian.
So first of all, I should mention that our conversation today will be translated and dubbed into Ukrainian, English, Russian, other languages, Spanish. So you’re in your voice. So there are great guys originally from Poland. It’s a company called ElevenLabs. They’ve trained an AI. Artificial intelligence sounds truly remarkable in your voice. You have the freedom to speak in any language you choose, but no matter what, you will always find yourself returning to speaking in Ukrainian. That is, when you talk about Donald Trump, you can do it in Ukrainian or Russian.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Everybody understands.
Everybody understands.
Lex Fridman
Everybody understands. But you said that there’s some things about the war that maybe Americans don’t understand. So we talked about Putin, we talked about the security guarantees, the reality of war, what’s happening on the ground? What do you think that people should understand?
Everybody understands. But you said that there’s some things about the war that maybe Americans don’t understand. So we talked about Putin, we talked about the security guarantees, the reality of war, what’s happening on the ground? What do you think that people should understand?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
First of all, they have to understand the idea of Putin’s war. It is very important for him. I consider this process. I think it is very important for him not to give Ukraine independence. To prevent Ukraine from developing as an independent country for him, influence. Influence on Ukraine cannot be lost. And four, for him, it is like… I think for him, this is such a goal in this last mile and certainly for him, the last mile and of his political life. And I think that this is the goal for him. The second story, I do not want to talk about these banalities that he wants to return all the territories of the Soviet Union influence over them. He does this little by little.
First of all, they have to understand the idea of Putin’s war. It is very important for him. I consider this process. I think it is very important for him not to give Ukraine independence. To prevent Ukraine from developing as an independent country for him, influence. Influence on Ukraine cannot be lost. And four, for him, it is like… I think for him, this is such a goal in this last mile and certainly for him, the last mile and of his political life. And I think that this is the goal for him. The second story, I do not want to talk about these banalities that he wants to return all the territories of the Soviet Union influence over them. He does this little by little.
I just don’t want to… People need to know details. For example, Georgia, which was headed towards the EU and NATO completely turns towards Russia regardless of the fact that they have frozen conflicts. They have in Abkhazia what we have with Donbas, which is controlled by militant rebels. Abkhazia is not developing. It’s just a very beautiful part of Georgia that has died. And if you have the opportunity, then go there someday. You will understand. It simply died because Putin wanted to. He wanted not to allow them to develop because a frozen conflict means that you will not be accepted in the EU and certainly will not be accepted into NATO.
Because right now, yes, they do not take you because of a frozen conflict. And this is what Putin did. It’s very important for him not to lose this influence. That is he turned back Georgia, young people, students, everyone leaves. And this is a fact. Georgia is quite small and they will leave. They want to live in Europe. They want to develop. Somebody in the United States, somebody in Europe, somebody in the EU, somebody in Britain. He will now fight for the Moldovan parliament. This is his second step. You will see in April what happens. You will see he will start turning Moldova away from Europe.
Although they want to go there, he does not care. They will be a pro-Russian party and they will do something with the current president because she has won the elections. She is pro-European but he will turn this back. The next steps are completely clear. He will do everything wherever he has lost influence, where there was influence of the Soviet Union. He’ll turn it back as much as possible. And we understand at what price. You have seen Syria, you saw these tortures. What we saw in [inaudible 02:02:19], what we saw everywhere we came and where our territories were occupied.
In Syria, the same happened. There were a thousand people there. And you have seen it. Scientists were found. Doctors were found. It’s clear that any people are capable of generating their own opinion. So their skills developed society, everyone who can express an opinion, everyone who can shape the independence and maturity of society. Such people are not needed. And he wants this in Ukraine. And therefore everyone should understand that Ukraine is like a large wall. From that Europe, and if God willing, President Trump does not withdraw from NATO. Because again, I believe that this is the biggest risk.
I think two steps. Two steps that Putin would like to see is a weak NATO and this without Trump. And a weak Ukraine, which cannot survive on the battlefield, simply cannot survive and prevent me from building a strong relationship with Trump. I think these two steps, leaving NATO and Ukraine’s weakness will lead to a large-scale war, which Putin will wage on all the territories of that post-Soviet Europe. I mean Soviet Europe, not post-Soviet, but post-World War II period. That is Soviet era Europe, in order to completely control everything there. This is what he will do. And besides this, this will happen in any case.
Even if the US is thinking about leaving NATO, this war will affect the United States because North Korea is the first sign. North Korean skills, North Korean knowledge, which they are now gaining from this war. These include mastering new technologies, large-scale drones, missiles, how it works, the kind of technological war we have today, cyber war, etc. All these skills, Korea will bring home and scale up in that region. And this will be a risk for the Pacific region. Security, first and foremost. For Japan and for South Korea, they will face these risks a hundred percent and it will be clear that Taiwan will also have to face them.
Without this, it is impossible. This is already happening. This is already happening. Therefore, I think that President Trump has all power to stop Putin and give Ukraine strong security guarantees.
Martial Law and Elections
Lex Fridman
We’ve been talking for two hours. Have to pause. You want to take the break?
We’ve been talking for two hours. Have to pause. You want to take the break?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
We will make a pause. We can have coffee, right? Coffee.
We will make a pause. We can have coffee, right? Coffee.
Lex Fridman
Let’s do it. And give the interpreter, he’s struggling.
Let’s do it. And give the interpreter, he’s struggling.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Some water.
Some water.
Lex Fridman
We keep switching languages
We keep switching languages
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Like a dragon. Three heads, three translators.
Like a dragon. Three heads, three translators.
Lex Fridman
So one of the difficult decisions you had to make when the war began is to enact martial law. So when you won the presidency, you were the warrior for freedom. In fact, this war is for freedom. For freedom of the individual, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom. But a lot of freedoms had to be curtailed, sacrificed in this fight because there’s so much focus on the war. Do you see the tension? Do you feel the tension of that, the sacrifice that had to be made in democracy, in freedom, in fighting this war?
So one of the difficult decisions you had to make when the war began is to enact martial law. So when you won the presidency, you were the warrior for freedom. In fact, this war is for freedom. For freedom of the individual, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom. But a lot of freedoms had to be curtailed, sacrificed in this fight because there’s so much focus on the war. Do you see the tension? Do you feel the tension of that, the sacrifice that had to be made in democracy, in freedom, in fighting this war?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
In any case, this war is for our freedom. Generally speaking. To be honest, when you understand, over time when the war passes, you understand that your main values are at home. This is your home, your children, your love, God willing, parents are alive and if not alive, then their memory, visiting their grave, choosing how to work, how much, preferably choosing where to work. All this is freedom. Freedoms are not just a desire, they are an opportunity. In any case, you are right because war is a limitation of opportunities. In any case, you fight for these opportunities. Your parents and God gave you life, right?
In any case, this war is for our freedom. Generally speaking. To be honest, when you understand, over time when the war passes, you understand that your main values are at home. This is your home, your children, your love, God willing, parents are alive and if not alive, then their memory, visiting their grave, choosing how to work, how much, preferably choosing where to work. All this is freedom. Freedoms are not just a desire, they are an opportunity. In any case, you are right because war is a limitation of opportunities. In any case, you fight for these opportunities. Your parents and God gave you life, right?
You fight for your life. Your life. But we need to understand that first there is a war. And then-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
But we need to understand that first there is a war and then martial law is introduced. Martial law is not introduced because someone wanted to. You say, this is not Pinochet, this is not Pinochet, and so on. This is a completely different story. An aggressor came and according to your legislation, if the border is violated, if there is armed aggression, you have all this written down long ago, written out in legislation, you introduce martial law and the introduction of martial law everywhere at all times means, in any case, a restriction of opportunities. If opportunities are limited, rights and freedoms are restricted. Therefore, the war itself restricts rights and freedoms. Yes, and you can’t do anything about it. We try, honestly, to balance as much as possible. I believe that the business sector works despite the difficulties of the war, and we do everything somewhere, there somewhere to reduce some load. Unfortunately, we cannot reduce taxes.
But we need to understand that first there is a war and then martial law is introduced. Martial law is not introduced because someone wanted to. You say, this is not Pinochet, this is not Pinochet, and so on. This is a completely different story. An aggressor came and according to your legislation, if the border is violated, if there is armed aggression, you have all this written down long ago, written out in legislation, you introduce martial law and the introduction of martial law everywhere at all times means, in any case, a restriction of opportunities. If opportunities are limited, rights and freedoms are restricted. Therefore, the war itself restricts rights and freedoms. Yes, and you can’t do anything about it. We try, honestly, to balance as much as possible. I believe that the business sector works despite the difficulties of the war, and we do everything somewhere, there somewhere to reduce some load. Unfortunately, we cannot reduce taxes.
On the contrary, military tax is used for war. You need to take money somewhere. This, by the way, is about the fact that the US gave us a lot and Europe too, but compared to how much we needed for the war, this is not all. As for military salaries, you know that we could not pay the salaries of a million strong army. We could not pay it using the money from our partners. These are all expenses. This is all the money that the country and people have accumulated. You can’t do anything. I really want to reduce taxes. I will tell you frankly, I really want to.
Well, I think that the whole new tax system, new deregulation, new steps, new reforms, all this will be after the war. Although there is something to brag about, this is proof. And this is a document because if you want to get a candidacy for European Union, you must implement the appropriate number of reforms. We do everything. During the war, we voted for many reforms, including anti-corruption, banking reforms, land reforms, major reforms. We started a large privatization and the war did not stop us. Yes, it slowed down, but we went through a lot.
Lex Fridman
When do you think you’ll hold elections? Because for people who don’t know, part of the martial law elections were suspended and they were delayed and delayed and delayed and I think the next sort of plan is in February of 2025, but when do you think there will be presidential elections in Ukraine?
When do you think you’ll hold elections? Because for people who don’t know, part of the martial law elections were suspended and they were delayed and delayed and delayed and I think the next sort of plan is in February of 2025, but when do you think there will be presidential elections in Ukraine?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Elections were postponed once. They were not delayed, to be clear. Elections did not take place in 2024 that year. First of all, we need to understand the constitution. They were scheduled to be held in the spring of 2024. Due to martial law under the constitution, you cannot do this. These are the presidential elections. The parliamentary elections did not take place in the fall of 2024 according to the constitution. Yes, there are security things, there is the constitution, but there are security things. That is, everyone in Ukraine understands that this cannot be done until the war is over or legislation needs to be changed.
Elections were postponed once. They were not delayed, to be clear. Elections did not take place in 2024 that year. First of all, we need to understand the constitution. They were scheduled to be held in the spring of 2024. Due to martial law under the constitution, you cannot do this. These are the presidential elections. The parliamentary elections did not take place in the fall of 2024 according to the constitution. Yes, there are security things, there is the constitution, but there are security things. That is, everyone in Ukraine understands that this cannot be done until the war is over or legislation needs to be changed.
I believe that elections will take place immediately after the end of martial law. This is according to the law or members of the parliament need to get together and change legislation, which will be very difficult to do because society is against it. Why society against it? It is understandable why. Because we want elections that we want to trust. 8.5 million people went abroad. The infrastructure needs to be created for these millions of people to vote. Millions of people in the occupied territories. I’m not even talking about the occupation of 2014. I’m talking about the occupation right now. What to do with these people? This is a difficult question. And one of the most unfair ones is how to vote without having a million soldiers. It is impossible.
We need to think about how to change the system if the elections are held in times of war, change the legislation, which should include changes to the voting system, to think about online voting. Everyone is afraid because of certain attacks like cyber attacks and so on, but we need to think about it. I really think that it’s possible that we can end the war in 2025.
Lex Fridman
In January?
In January?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
We’ve already agreed on it. I would very much like to. I would very much like to-
We’ve already agreed on it. I would very much like to. I would very much like to-
Lex Fridman
After the war?
After the war?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
And immediately. Yes, immediately. In the year of the end of the war. It’s a fact. Why? Because when martial law ends, you can immediately vote in parliament to hold elections and then everyone will vote because there are no restrictive measures. And after they vote, I think elections can be held in 90 days, something like that. Yes. And this means that immediately after the end of the war, elections may take place in 90 days.
And immediately. Yes, immediately. In the year of the end of the war. It’s a fact. Why? Because when martial law ends, you can immediately vote in parliament to hold elections and then everyone will vote because there are no restrictive measures. And after they vote, I think elections can be held in 90 days, something like that. Yes. And this means that immediately after the end of the war, elections may take place in 90 days.
Lex Fridman
Are you running for reelection?
Are you running for reelection?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Even I don’t know, really. I don’t know. I don’t know. It is a very difficult question. It depends on how this war will finish. It depends on what people will want. Mostly, it depends on people, first of all, and of course my family. We had no time to speak about it with my family and of course didn’t have a chance because we don’t think about it now. I mean, it’s something… There are a lot of, some, not a lot of, but enough voices in Ukraine from politicians, opposition and et cetera, about this, I guess. But we don’t think really seriously, didn’t think seriously with my family about it. So this is war. I mean, how to think about what will be after. It’s very difficult, really very difficult.
Even I don’t know, really. I don’t know. I don’t know. It is a very difficult question. It depends on how this war will finish. It depends on what people will want. Mostly, it depends on people, first of all, and of course my family. We had no time to speak about it with my family and of course didn’t have a chance because we don’t think about it now. I mean, it’s something… There are a lot of, some, not a lot of, but enough voices in Ukraine from politicians, opposition and et cetera, about this, I guess. But we don’t think really seriously, didn’t think seriously with my family about it. So this is war. I mean, how to think about what will be after. It’s very difficult, really very difficult.
Lex Fridman
If we look at the field of candidates, maybe you can give your opinion about the set of ideas you see out there, including your own about the future of Ukraine. As I understand the candidates include Poroshenko, Zaluzhnyi, Arestovych, Budanov, Klitschko, there are many others. This is the internet speaking to me. What do you think are the space of ideas that these candidates represent?
If we look at the field of candidates, maybe you can give your opinion about the set of ideas you see out there, including your own about the future of Ukraine. As I understand the candidates include Poroshenko, Zaluzhnyi, Arestovych, Budanov, Klitschko, there are many others. This is the internet speaking to me. What do you think are the space of ideas that these candidates represent?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I think there can be even a bigger number of candidates. Yeah, I don’t really know what will be. They have rights to participate if they want to. Yes, if they really want to, and can, they can go and do what they want, honestly. Most important is what are they doing now? I think that all these people are famous Ukrainian people and it’s important for them to do everything they can today, not begin any election campaign. I think this what can divide our people to have the elections during the war. I mean this make steps, speak about elections a lot, make a big mess about it. I think this is not right. That’s why I’m not agreeing with some of these people. But they can and I think that they can and maybe some of them will. And it’s okay. It’s normal. It’s very normal. Our system differs from the system in the United States. You have two parties and the parties decide who will be the leader. And in Ukraine, everybody can participate. Let them.
I think there can be even a bigger number of candidates. Yeah, I don’t really know what will be. They have rights to participate if they want to. Yes, if they really want to, and can, they can go and do what they want, honestly. Most important is what are they doing now? I think that all these people are famous Ukrainian people and it’s important for them to do everything they can today, not begin any election campaign. I think this what can divide our people to have the elections during the war. I mean this make steps, speak about elections a lot, make a big mess about it. I think this is not right. That’s why I’m not agreeing with some of these people. But they can and I think that they can and maybe some of them will. And it’s okay. It’s normal. It’s very normal. Our system differs from the system in the United States. You have two parties and the parties decide who will be the leader. And in Ukraine, everybody can participate. Let them.
Lex Fridman
You think you’re going to win the debate? You versus Zaluzhnyi, Poroshenko or Arestovych and you decide to run, do you think you’re going to win the debate or you’re again focused on the war and everybody should be focused-
You think you’re going to win the debate? You versus Zaluzhnyi, Poroshenko or Arestovych and you decide to run, do you think you’re going to win the debate or you’re again focused on the war and everybody should be focused-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Oh, I’m really focusing on the war and-
Oh, I’m really focusing on the war and-
Lex Fridman
I understand.
I understand.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
… I think the most difficult debate is what will be brought to the table and we spoke about it. It’ll be during the war, how to finish the war. I think that is my goal because it will be one of my most complicated debates and for any president who is in a war, of course, but I think this is my goal to win those debates and the other things are not for today.
… I think the most difficult debate is what will be brought to the table and we spoke about it. It’ll be during the war, how to finish the war. I think that is my goal because it will be one of my most complicated debates and for any president who is in a war, of course, but I think this is my goal to win those debates and the other things are not for today.
Corruption
Lex Fridman
As I said, the dream I have is it’s a historic opportunity to make peace, to make lasting peace soon. So I’m glad you’re focused on that. Let me ask a question that a lot of people in the United States think about, and I care a lot about the future of Ukraine is corruption. This is something you have cared a lot about for a long time. You won the presidency in 2019, in big part your message of fighting corruption. But there’s a lot of accusations that during war, I mentioned $9 trillion in the United States, war breeds corruption. So can you speak to that, how you have been fighting corruption and can you respond to the accusations there has been corruption in Ukraine?
As I said, the dream I have is it’s a historic opportunity to make peace, to make lasting peace soon. So I’m glad you’re focused on that. Let me ask a question that a lot of people in the United States think about, and I care a lot about the future of Ukraine is corruption. This is something you have cared a lot about for a long time. You won the presidency in 2019, in big part your message of fighting corruption. But there’s a lot of accusations that during war, I mentioned $9 trillion in the United States, war breeds corruption. So can you speak to that, how you have been fighting corruption and can you respond to the accusations there has been corruption in Ukraine?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
It’s very simple. First of all, we really have a very sophisticated anti-corruption system. Sophisticated not in the sense that it’s difficult to understand, but in that it really consists of many elements. It’s the most sophisticated in all of Europe. This is another requirement of the European Union. It was a requirement for Ukraine and for many years, Ukraine was not trusted. I want to tell you that under me, we all voted for bills, all the anti-corruption reforms, well, almost all reforms and all anti-corruption bodies today are independent. They work as requested. I still believe that they are not perfect yet. There are many issues. There is a judicial system, but also a judicial reform that our partners, the United States plus the EU, demanded from us. This is all written out. This is written out in specific laws, in specific decrees, in specific decisions. We did this, we’ve done 99% of this.
It’s very simple. First of all, we really have a very sophisticated anti-corruption system. Sophisticated not in the sense that it’s difficult to understand, but in that it really consists of many elements. It’s the most sophisticated in all of Europe. This is another requirement of the European Union. It was a requirement for Ukraine and for many years, Ukraine was not trusted. I want to tell you that under me, we all voted for bills, all the anti-corruption reforms, well, almost all reforms and all anti-corruption bodies today are independent. They work as requested. I still believe that they are not perfect yet. There are many issues. There is a judicial system, but also a judicial reform that our partners, the United States plus the EU, demanded from us. This is all written out. This is written out in specific laws, in specific decrees, in specific decisions. We did this, we’ve done 99% of this.
If something has not been done, it means that it is on the way. But in principle, all this exists and there is no such system as we have in Europe. To say that we do not have corruption would be lying. We just talk about it openly. We are genuinely fighting against it. Look, we have sitting in our prison, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who is the most influential Ukrainian oligarch since independence and no one could do anything about him. The United States of America wanted to have Kolomoyskyi and they went to great lengths because of money laundering, etc. There are criminal cases in the United States, I think in Delaware, something like that. Neither Europe could do anything about it. That is, we did a lot with oligarchs. Russian oligarchs, sanctions were imposed, they were thrown out. Some of them fled the state, but they are all under sanctions. We exchanged some of them for our soldiers such as Medvedchuk to whose daughter Putin is godfather.
That is, we fought against the strongest influential oligarchs, which are, and were in Ukraine and we eliminated a lot of corruption. Of course corruption exists in everyday life. It exists. But institutionally, I am sure that Ukraine will overcome all this. This takes a little time. I would say honestly, that listen, what we call corruption and in some state of the world it’s called lobbyism, but this does not mean that there is no corruption there.
Let’s take the aid you mentioned during the war. First of all, we have no money. We have no money except for the war. We received weapons from the United States of America, from Europe. If we take for example money from the United States of America during all this time of the war, around 177 billion have been voted for or decided upon, 177 billion. Let’s be honest, we have not received half of this money.
The second point, which is very important, just as an example, is it corruption? The first question, whose corruption? This is the second. Here is just one small example for you. When the United States began to transfer US weapons, it was American money, but American weapons, money for these weapons. As a president, I had cargo jets, not in Ukraine. Because of the war, we moved them very quickly to Europe. We had cargo. We have good cargo fleet, very good because of Antonov. So I asked American side to grant me the opportunity because our jets are at another airfield and I asked America to give me the opportunity to use our jets for transfer, not to pay a lot. To whom? To your companies, to American companies. No, I didn’t get this opportunity. My jets stayed put and the United States jets, cargo jets moved these weapons. But everywhere you have to spend money so we could get more weapons, but we have to pay for this very expensive fleet. My question, is this corruption or not? Or lobbyism? What is it?
Lex Fridman
You mean corruption on the part of the US companies?
You mean corruption on the part of the US companies?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes. Making such decisions.
Yes. Making such decisions.
Lex Fridman
Yes, I got it.
Yes, I got it.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The lobbying for such decisions involves some companies that make these decisions, but I can’t be open about it and I couldn’t speak loudly about it. I didn’t want, nor did I intend to cause any scandals to arise because otherwise you can freeze the support and that’s it. And that’s why when we talk about corruption, we must ask who is involved? If we had 177, and if we get the half, where’s the half? If you will find the second half, you will find corruption.
The lobbying for such decisions involves some companies that make these decisions, but I can’t be open about it and I couldn’t speak loudly about it. I didn’t want, nor did I intend to cause any scandals to arise because otherwise you can freeze the support and that’s it. And that’s why when we talk about corruption, we must ask who is involved? If we had 177, and if we get the half, where’s the half? If you will find the second half, you will find corruption.
Lex Fridman
There is a perception of corruption. People like Donald Trump and Elon Musk really care about fighting corruption. What can you say to them to gain their trust that the money is going towards this fight for freedom, towards the war effort?
There is a perception of corruption. People like Donald Trump and Elon Musk really care about fighting corruption. What can you say to them to gain their trust that the money is going towards this fight for freedom, towards the war effort?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
In most of cases, we did not receive money, we received weapons. And where we saw risks that something could be happening with weapons, we cracked down hard on everyone. And believe me, this is not only about Ukraine. Everywhere along the supply chain, there are some or other people and companies who want to make money, they try to make money on the war. We did not profit from the war. If we caught someone, believe me, we cracked down hard on them, and we did that, and we will continue to do so because to this day when someone says that, “Ukraine was selling weapons,” and by the way, Russia was the one pushing this narrative, we always responded, “Our soldiers would kill such people with their own hands without any trial.”
In most of cases, we did not receive money, we received weapons. And where we saw risks that something could be happening with weapons, we cracked down hard on everyone. And believe me, this is not only about Ukraine. Everywhere along the supply chain, there are some or other people and companies who want to make money, they try to make money on the war. We did not profit from the war. If we caught someone, believe me, we cracked down hard on them, and we did that, and we will continue to do so because to this day when someone says that, “Ukraine was selling weapons,” and by the way, Russia was the one pushing this narrative, we always responded, “Our soldiers would kill such people with their own hands without any trial.”
Do you honestly think anyone could steal weapons by the truckload when we ourselves don’t have enough on the front lines? And yet we have to provide proof to defend ourselves because when there’s an abundance of such misinformation, distrust starts to grow. And you’re right, people listen to various media outlets, see this and lose faith in you. In the end, you lose trust and with it you lose support. Therefore, believe me, we are fighting more against disinformation than against particular cases. Although I still emphasize once again at the everyday level, such things are still important. We catch these people and we fight them.
Elon Musk
Lex Fridman
I mentioned Elon Musk. I would be interested to hear what you think of him, why you respect him as a person, as an engineer, as an innovator, as a businessman. I would just like to hear from you, what do you think about Elon Musk?
I mentioned Elon Musk. I would be interested to hear what you think of him, why you respect him as a person, as an engineer, as an innovator, as a businessman. I would just like to hear from you, what do you think about Elon Musk?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
First of all, I had a conversation with him at the beginning of the war. I talked with him. I respect him, first and foremost. I respect the self-made man, right?
First of all, I had a conversation with him at the beginning of the war. I talked with him. I respect him, first and foremost. I respect the self-made man, right?
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
In English, I love such people. No one and nothing fell into their lap. But the man did something, did it all himself. I worked myself, created a big production company and I know what it means to make money, to select talented people, to impart knowledge to them, to invest money and to create something, something important for certain people. And I’m not comparing myself to Musk, he just, well, the man is a great leader of innovations in the world. And I believe that such people move the world forward. Therefore, I respect the result of his work. And we see this result. And for me, it has always been important that your result can be used. That these are not words but facts.
In English, I love such people. No one and nothing fell into their lap. But the man did something, did it all himself. I worked myself, created a big production company and I know what it means to make money, to select talented people, to impart knowledge to them, to invest money and to create something, something important for certain people. And I’m not comparing myself to Musk, he just, well, the man is a great leader of innovations in the world. And I believe that such people move the world forward. Therefore, I respect the result of his work. And we see this result. And for me, it has always been important that your result can be used. That these are not words but facts.
Let’s take the war. We are very grateful for Starlink. It has helped. We used it after Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure. There were problems with the internet, et cetera, with connection. We used Starlink both at the front and in kindergartens. It was used in schools, it helped children. We used it in various infrastructure and it helped us very much. And I would very much like Elon to be on our side as much as possible to support us. And yes, I’m grateful to him for Starlink. Truly, I am. First of all, so that our guys have a connection, and children too. And I am really grateful to him for that. I think I would like him to come to Ukraine, to talk to people here and to look around and so on.
Lex Fridman
Has Elon visited Kyiv or Ukraine yet?
Has Elon visited Kyiv or Ukraine yet?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
I hope the Kyiv airport will open soon, then it will be easier to fly in.
I hope the Kyiv airport will open soon, then it will be easier to fly in.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, I am looking forward to it. Maybe we will open it, but only, and you must understand if the war is over, there must be sustainable peace and air defense systems to be honest. And we must ensure that they are long-lasting and effective. Let’s take the airport for example, and let’s focus on the airport in Dresden, which very well as it is handling important cargo for Ukraine in Poland. And there are patriot systems there because everyone understands what the risk is. Well, Russia is a risk and therefore we need air defense systems. And today, today, take for example, the air defense system of one city or another that is being shelled and move it, move it to the airport. Well, that would be dishonest. People are more important than planes. But there will be a moment, and Trump, by the way, I think that the war will end and President Trump may be the first leader to travel here by airplane. I think it would be symbolic by airplane.
Yes, I am looking forward to it. Maybe we will open it, but only, and you must understand if the war is over, there must be sustainable peace and air defense systems to be honest. And we must ensure that they are long-lasting and effective. Let’s take the airport for example, and let’s focus on the airport in Dresden, which very well as it is handling important cargo for Ukraine in Poland. And there are patriot systems there because everyone understands what the risk is. Well, Russia is a risk and therefore we need air defense systems. And today, today, take for example, the air defense system of one city or another that is being shelled and move it, move it to the airport. Well, that would be dishonest. People are more important than planes. But there will be a moment, and Trump, by the way, I think that the war will end and President Trump may be the first leader to travel here by airplane. I think it would be symbolic by airplane.
Lex Fridman
Again, January 25th around that date. Right? Flying in, meeting the Air Force One.
Again, January 25th around that date. Right? Flying in, meeting the Air Force One.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
That would be cool.
That would be cool.
Lex Fridman
Elon Musk. I will meet you there for the second time too on the plane.
Elon Musk. I will meet you there for the second time too on the plane.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
With pleasure.
With pleasure.
Trump Inauguration on Jan 20
Lex Fridman
And you, by the way, before I forget, let me ask, are you coming on January 20th for President Trump’s inauguration?
And you, by the way, before I forget, let me ask, are you coming on January 20th for President Trump’s inauguration?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I would like to, of course. I will be considering what is happening then in the war because there are moments of difficulties, escalation, many missiles, etc. But honestly, well, I can’t. I can’t come especially during the war, unless President Trump invites me personally. I’m not sure it’s proper to come because I know that in general, leaders are for some reason not usually invited to the inauguration of presidents of the United States of America. Well, and I know that there are leaders who can simply come, want to come and will come. Yeah, I know. And I know the temperament of some of these people. They can come at their discretion. This is very, very difficult for me. I am the kind of person that cannot come without an invitation. This is Putin. We did not invite him. He came to us, so to say. And me, I can’t do that.
I would like to, of course. I will be considering what is happening then in the war because there are moments of difficulties, escalation, many missiles, etc. But honestly, well, I can’t. I can’t come especially during the war, unless President Trump invites me personally. I’m not sure it’s proper to come because I know that in general, leaders are for some reason not usually invited to the inauguration of presidents of the United States of America. Well, and I know that there are leaders who can simply come, want to come and will come. Yeah, I know. And I know the temperament of some of these people. They can come at their discretion. This is very, very difficult for me. I am the kind of person that cannot come without an invitation. This is Putin. We did not invite him. He came to us, so to say. And me, I can’t do that.
Lex Fridman
No, but he publicly say that it would be great if you came to the inauguration or you mean did he invite it officially?
No, but he publicly say that it would be great if you came to the inauguration or you mean did he invite it officially?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
No, wait. Look, look, look. Listen, I am against any bureaucracy. I get rid of it as much as I can. But well, there are some complexities involving security. I decide and I fly, and the United States of America officially provides security. Not that I need this, mind you. I do not ask for helicopters to fly around and protect me, but they will simply do it themselves. The security service itself. They had to do it. I don’t want it, and sometimes I don’t need it. And I’m asking them.
No, wait. Look, look, look. Listen, I am against any bureaucracy. I get rid of it as much as I can. But well, there are some complexities involving security. I decide and I fly, and the United States of America officially provides security. Not that I need this, mind you. I do not ask for helicopters to fly around and protect me, but they will simply do it themselves. The security service itself. They had to do it. I don’t want it, and sometimes I don’t need it. And I’m asking them.
It was for example, before the war, I think, yes, it was before the war, I had a meeting, yes, with President Trump. It was in 2019. I just wanted to go for a run early in the morning because I really wanted to exercise. And they, those tall bodyguards, a lot of them, they decided to join me, but I couldn’t really do it because they were in suits and I was in sportswear. I said, no, I can’t. It’s always funny. I don’t want to disturb anybody and cause anyone problems with me. And that’s why if he will invite me, I will come.
Lex Fridman
I thought he invited you.
I thought he invited you.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah?
Yeah?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I thought he publicly invited you. But okay, I hope to see you there.
Yeah. I thought he publicly invited you. But okay, I hope to see you there.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I think they had to to do some of their steps. I don’t know, but…
I think they had to to do some of their steps. I don’t know, but…
Lex Fridman
Step, yeah. The stamp was missing.
Step, yeah. The stamp was missing.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
But with pleasure with my wife of course. And I think it’s important. It’s important.
But with pleasure with my wife of course. And I think it’s important. It’s important.
Power dynamics in Ukraine
Lex Fridman
All right, let’s get back to a serious question. Sometimes they say it in America, this question of who is really in power? So let me ask, is someone controlling you? For example, oligarchs, American politicians, Yermak? I wanted to bring this up because I have been here in Ukraine twice since the invasion of 2022. And one of the things I’ve learned well is that actually nobody controls you. And this is one of your strengths as a president, as a person that oligarchs and other rich and powerful people like that cannot control you. Can you explain why that is? How you see it?
All right, let’s get back to a serious question. Sometimes they say it in America, this question of who is really in power? So let me ask, is someone controlling you? For example, oligarchs, American politicians, Yermak? I wanted to bring this up because I have been here in Ukraine twice since the invasion of 2022. And one of the things I’ve learned well is that actually nobody controls you. And this is one of your strengths as a president, as a person that oligarchs and other rich and powerful people like that cannot control you. Can you explain why that is? How you see it?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I think, and it is indeed true that I’m generally difficult to deal with. I am an ambitious person. I can’t submit to anyone. I can live by rules, by laws. I believe that this is the only thing that can control any person today. These are the rules and laws of the society or state where you live. And I believe that this is the most important thing. There’s no person who could control me as I once told President Trump when we had a meeting. By the way, journalists asked if Trump influenced me during the phone call. I told the journalist the truth then, who can influence me? Only my boy, my son. This is a fact. When he calls asking for something, well, then I lift up my arms, yes, and I cannot do anything about it because children are children. I have so little time with them. And therefore when there are these moments, they are precious and important to me. I am ready to do anything.
I think, and it is indeed true that I’m generally difficult to deal with. I am an ambitious person. I can’t submit to anyone. I can live by rules, by laws. I believe that this is the only thing that can control any person today. These are the rules and laws of the society or state where you live. And I believe that this is the most important thing. There’s no person who could control me as I once told President Trump when we had a meeting. By the way, journalists asked if Trump influenced me during the phone call. I told the journalist the truth then, who can influence me? Only my boy, my son. This is a fact. When he calls asking for something, well, then I lift up my arms, yes, and I cannot do anything about it because children are children. I have so little time with them. And therefore when there are these moments, they are precious and important to me. I am ready to do anything.
Also, probably my parents, they are an authority for me. Beyond that, I view it more as a system. No one can control the president. Therefore, we have oligarchs who either fled or are in prison because oligarchs usually control cash flows and people and influence politics. And we have concrete examples with sentences. They are not just under house arrest. Not just that there are some judgments under which their assets were frozen or sanctions were imposed. There are specific people who are behind bars. I think this is the answer regarding the influence. Would they like to influence me in the same way as any president of Ukraine because finance and cash flows always influence politics? Well, at least they want to do this. This is regarding the influence and other people on the vertical, they perform tasks as my managers. Andrii, you mentioned is one of those managers. Well, I am glad that I have such people. Well, probably there is nothing else to add here.
Lex Fridman
I will just say that your team that I spoke with is an excellent team. Excellent people.
I will just say that your team that I spoke with is an excellent team. Excellent people.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thank you.
Thank you.
Future of Ukraine
Lex Fridman
Okay, one last question. The future of Ukraine. If you look 5, 10, 20 years into the future, what can help Ukraine flourish economically, culturally, politically in the future?
Okay, one last question. The future of Ukraine. If you look 5, 10, 20 years into the future, what can help Ukraine flourish economically, culturally, politically in the future?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Digital, it’s very important. Digitalization of all the process. We began this work. We have special ministry of digital transformation.
Digital, it’s very important. Digitalization of all the process. We began this work. We have special ministry of digital transformation.
Lex Fridman
Yeah?
Yeah?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yeah. So this is very good. And we also have our Diia. This is the name for all of these services. So I think that is the most important. This is, again, this is not only convenient, that will cancel any possibilities for future corruption because you don’t have any personal connections with people in the government or elsewhere. So you are just on your phone or any other device. That’s it. And I think we are doing very well. We are the best in Europe. All of Europe recognizes it. Some countries of the African Union asked us to provide this, the same service and we will do it after the war immediately. And I think that we can bring money to Ukraine from this. And I think what we also need, we need a tax reform. I think it will be very important for the businesses to return.
Yeah. So this is very good. And we also have our Diia. This is the name for all of these services. So I think that is the most important. This is, again, this is not only convenient, that will cancel any possibilities for future corruption because you don’t have any personal connections with people in the government or elsewhere. So you are just on your phone or any other device. That’s it. And I think we are doing very well. We are the best in Europe. All of Europe recognizes it. Some countries of the African Union asked us to provide this, the same service and we will do it after the war immediately. And I think that we can bring money to Ukraine from this. And I think what we also need, we need a tax reform. I think it will be very important for the businesses to return.
A lot of support will come, I think from USA business investment, not as direct aid to us, just to the private sector and resources. And I mentioned this to President Trump and to some European leaders who are our key strategic partners that will be happy, especially with the Americans, will be happy to sign these contracts and engage in joint investments in many areas. And I think we can develop oil, gas, green energy, including solar power. And we already have the resources. We can invest money into this. We have oil reserves in the Black Sea that we can exploit and we need your expertise and the investment of your companies. We have gold and uranium reserves, the largest in Europe by the way, which is also very important. For example, Russia has pushed France out of Africa. They urgently need uranium, which we have. So we are ready to open up for investments and this will give us of course, opportunities, jobs for people, revenue. I don’t want cheap labor, honestly. What I truly want, especially after the war, to open up for those people…
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
I truly want, especially after the war, to open up for those people who can really contribute and earn.
I truly want, especially after the war, to open up for those people who can really contribute and earn.
Lex Fridman
Yes, and give a reason to the eight million people to come back.
Yes, and give a reason to the eight million people to come back.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, it’s so important. And they will come and we will recover and rebuild Ukraine. We will be very open to companies, and of course we will welcome our people back. It’s so important culturally.
Yes, it’s so important. And they will come and we will recover and rebuild Ukraine. We will be very open to companies, and of course we will welcome our people back. It’s so important culturally.
I think the most important thing is to remain open and not change our direction because culturally aligning with Russia, it’s one idea, while aligning with Europe is another. Our people have chosen Europe. It’s their choice, it’s our choice, the choice of our nation, and I think it’s very important.
Lex Fridman
But first, you have to end the war.
But first, you have to end the war.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes, you’re right. And we will. We want peace. Just to make it clear, we want peace. Just what I always say, you have to come to Ukraine and see for yourself. And people will tell you, “No, we can’t forgive those murderers who took our lives, but we still want to make peace.”
Yes, you’re right. And we will. We want peace. Just to make it clear, we want peace. Just what I always say, you have to come to Ukraine and see for yourself. And people will tell you, “No, we can’t forgive those murderers who took our lives, but we still want to make peace.”
And honestly, I think that the highest approval rating of the president of the United States, of Trump now is in Ukraine. People really believe that he can truly help bring peace. Now they have faith, faith that he can make it happen, that he can support Ukraine and he can stop Putin and that he will make sure Putin doesn’t get everything he wants. This is very important, and it’s why we believe that we must not lose this opportunity.
Lex Fridman
I hope you find the path to peace. Thank you.
I hope you find the path to peace. Thank you.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thank you so much.
Thank you so much.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for talking today.
Thank you for talking today.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Thank you for coming.
Thank you for coming.
Lex Fridman
[foreign language 02:42:01].
[foreign language 02:42:01].
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
[foreign language 02:42:02] Yeah. You started. Thank you very much.
[foreign language 02:42:02] Yeah. You started. Thank you very much.
Choice of language
Lex Fridman
Thank you for listening to this conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And now let me answer some questions and try to reflect on and articulate some things I’ve been thinking about. If you would like to submit questions, including in audio and video form, go to lexfridman.com/ama. Or to contact me for whatever other reason, go to lexfridman.com/contact.
Thank you for listening to this conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And now let me answer some questions and try to reflect on and articulate some things I’ve been thinking about. If you would like to submit questions, including in audio and video form, go to lexfridman.com/ama. Or to contact me for whatever other reason, go to lexfridman.com/contact.
First, I got a bunch of questions about this, so let me chat about the topic of language and let’s say the mechanics of multilingual conversation. Perhaps the details are interesting to some people. It also allows me to reflect back on the puzzle of it in this episode and what I can do better next time. I already explained in the intro the symbolic, historic, and geopolitical complexity of the choice of language in the conversation with President Zelenskyy. As I said, the Russian language is one that the president speaks fluently and was his primary language for most of his life. I speak Russian fluently as well. It’s the only common language we are both fluent in, so any other combination of languages required an interpreter, including when I spoke English. He did need an interpreter when I spoke English, and just like I was, was visibly encumbered and annoyed by the process of interpretation. This is why I tried to speak in Russian to the president instead of English, so that he can directly understand me without an interpreter.
I’m willing to take the hit for that, as I am for everything else. I’m not trying to protect myself, I’m trying to do whatever is best for the conversation for understanding, though it has been getting harder and harder to stay open, vulnerable and raw in public while the swarms of chanting internet mobs stop by with their torches and their color-coded hats, flags, frogs, pronouns, and hashtags.
Anyway, there is a lot of nuanced aspects of the conversational language that I would like to explain here. I’ll try to be brief. I can recommend a lot of books on this topic of language and communication that reveal just how amazing this technology of language is. For example, for a good overview, I recommend John McWhorter’s books and especially his lecture series for the Great Courses on language. There are several. In the Story of Human Language series, he gives a great discussion on spoken language versus written language, and that spoken language often relaxes the rules of communication. It uses shorter packets of words, loads in a bunch of subtle cues and meanings, all of which, like I’m trying to describe, are lost when there’s an interpreter in the loop.
Let me also describe some relevant characteristics of my peculiar language “abilities” in quotes. I was never good at speaking. I listen to think and understand better than I speak. For me, this is true for both English and Russian, but it is especially true for Russian. The Russian language allows for much more room for wit, nonstandard terms of phrase, metaphors, humor, rhyme, musicality, and let’s say deforming of words that create a lot of room for creativity and how meaning and emotion are conveyed. You could do the same in English, but it’s harder. I actually find that Brits are sometimes very good at this. One of my favorite humans to talk to is Douglas Murray. Setting the content of the conversation aside, the sheer linguistic brilliance and wit of dialogue with Douglas is a journey in itself. I think Christopher Hitchens had the same, and many others, like I said, especially Brits. Anyway, I’m able to detect and understand a lot of dynamism and humor in the Russian language, but I’m slow to generate it in part because I just don’t practice. I have very few Russian-speaking friends. Funny enough, most of them are Ukrainian, but they speak with me and each other in Russian. But of course, as I mentioned, this is slowly changing due to the war. But I tried to speak to the president in Russian so he would avoid needing an interpreter as much as possible.
One of the things I want to improve for next time is to make sure I get very good equipment for interpretation and arrange for an interpreter I trust to be exceptionally good for the dynamism and the endurance of a three-hour conversation in the style that I tried to do. Just to give you some behind-the-scenes details of the experience, equipment-wise, funny enough, it’s not actually so trivial to set up wireless connections from us, the two people talking, to the interpreter, and then back to us in a way that’s super robust and has clean audio. The audio I had in my ear from the interpreter had a loud background noise, so the whole time I’m hearing a shh sound with the voice of the interpreter coming in very quietly. What a wonderful experience this whole life is, frankly. Plus, his translation was often incomplete, at least for me, so I had to put together those puzzle pieces continuously. But again, it worked out. And hopefully our constant switching of languages and having a meta-discussion about language provided good insights as to the complexity of this fight for a nation’s identity and sovereignty that Ukraine has gone through.
Behind the scenes, off-mic on a personal level, President Zelenskyy was funny, thoughtful, and just a kind-hearted person. And really, the whole team were just great people. It was an experience I’ll never forget.
After the conversation was recorded, the next challenge was to translate all of this and overdub it and do it super quickly. These words I’m speaking now have to be translated and dubbed into Ukrainian and Russian. ElevenLabs were really helpful here, especially in bringing the president’s voice to life in different languages. But even more than that, they’re just an amazing team who inspired me and everyone involved. Please go support ElevenLabs. They are a great company and great people. The translation is separate from the text to speech and was done in part by AI and a lot by human. This is where the fact that we had constant switching between three languages was a real challenge. There are six transition mappings that have to be done: English to Ukrainian and Russian, Ukrainian to English and Russian, and then Russian to English and Ukrainian continuously, sentence by sentence, sometimes word by word. And each combination of language to language translation is best done by a person who specializes in that kind of mapping. It was all a beautiful mess, all of it.
And on top of all that, great translation is super hard. For example, I’ve read and listened to a lot of Dostoevsky both English and Russian and studied the process of how these books are translated by various translators. You can spend a week discussing how to translate a single important sentence well. Obviously, in this situation, we don’t have weeks, we have hours for the whole thing.
One of the things I regret is not putting enough time into the hiring and selecting great translators, from Russian and Ukrainian to English especially. I think translation is an art, so getting a good translator that works well with us is a process that needs more time and effort. I’ll be doing that more this month.
By the way, we have a small but amazing team. If you want to join us, go to lexfridman.com/hiring. If you’re passionate, work hard, and everyone on the team loves working with you, then we’ll do some epic stuff together. Would love to work with you. Like I said about ElevenLabs. There are a few things is awesome in life as being able to work hard with an amazing team towards a mission all of us are passionate about.
Anyway, I’ll probably be doing a few more interviews in the Russian language. I do have a lingering goal of interviewing the Mathematician Grigori Perelman, but there’s also others. I will also work on improving my whole pipeline both equipment-wise and interpreter-wise in doing these conversations in other languages because there are many that I would like to do in languages I don’t speak at all like Chinese, Mandarin or Spanish, Arabic, Hindi, Portuguese, French, German. I see language as both a barrier for communication and a portal into understanding the spirit of a people connected by that language. It’s all a weird and beautiful puzzle, and I’m just excited to get the chance to explore it.
Podcast prep and research process
All right, I got a question on how I prepare for podcasts. This has evolved and expanded more and more over time. There are some podcasts that I prepare hundreds of hours for. In AI terms, let’s say, first, I’m training a solid background model by consuming as much variety on the topic as possible. A lot of this comes down to picking high-signal sources, whether it’s blogs, books, podcasts, YouTube videos, X accounts, and so on.
For this conversation with President Zelenskyy, for example, since February 2022 I’ve spoken with hundreds of people on the ground, I’ve read Kindle or audiobook, about 10 books fully, and then I skimmed about 20 more. And I don’t mean books about Zelenskyy, although he does appear in some of them, I mean books where this conversation was fully in the back of my mind as I’m reading the book. For example, I read Red Famine by Anne Applebaum. It’s about Holodomor. Does it directly relate to Zelenskyy? Not on the surface, no. But it continues to weave the fabric of my understanding of a people, of a history of the region.
But it’s really important for me to read books from various perspectives. And I’m always trying to calculate the bias under which the author operates and adjusting for that in my brain as I integrate the information. For example, Anne Applebaum’s book, Gulag, is very different from Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Gulag Archipelago. The former is a rigorous, comprehensive, historical account, the latter is a literary, psychological, and personal portrait of Soviet society. Both I think are extremely valuable. On the bias front, for example, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer is a good example. It is full of bias, but he was there, and to me, he has written probably one of the greatest if not the greatest book on the Third Reich ever. But like I said, it has a lot of inaccuracies and biases. You can read about them online if you like. But my job in this case and in all cases is to adjust based on my understanding of the authors’ biases and take the wisdom from the text where it could be found and putting the inaccuracies aside into the proverbial dustbins of history.
As I’m reading, I’m writing down my thoughts as they come up, always digging for some deeper insight about human nature. If I’m at my computer, I’ll write it down in Google Doc, sometimes use Notion or Obsidian. If I’m not on my computer, I’ll use Google Keep. For example, if I’m listening to an audiobook and I’m running along the river, if a good idea comes to mind, I’ll stop, think for a few seconds, and then do a speech to text note in Google Keep. By the way, listening to audiobook at 1X speed. Old school. And eventually I get a gigantic pile of thoughts and notes that I look over to refresh my memory. But for the most part, I just throw them out. It’s a background model building process. By the way, LLMs are increasingly becoming useful here for organization purposes, but have not yet been useful, at least for me, and I do try a lot for insight extraction or insight generation purposes.
I should mention that my memory for specific facts, names, days, quotes is terrible. What I remember well is high-level ideas. That’s just how my brain works, for better or for worse. I realize that sometimes forgetting all of the details and the words needed to express them makes me sound simplistic and even unprepared. I’m not, but that’s life. We have to accept our flaws and roll with them.
Aside from books, I also listen to a lot of podcasts and YouTube videos where people are talking about the topic. For the President Zelenskyy episode, I listened probably to hundreds of hours of content from his supporters and from his critics; from all sides. Again, I choose who to listen to based not on their perspective, but based on SNR, signal-to-noise ratio. If I’m regularly getting insights from a person, I will continue listening to them whether I agree or disagree.
In the end, this turns out to be a lot of hours of prep, but to say that it’s X hours per episode is not accurate because a lot of this preparation transfers from one guest to another even when there’s an insane level of variety in the guests. We’re all humans, after all. There is a thread that connects all of it together somehow if you look closely enough.
For more technical guests in STEM fields, I’ll read papers, a lot of papers, and also technical blog posts and technical tweet threads. This is a very different process. For AI or CS-related topics, I will run other people’s code, I will write my own, implement stuff from scratch. If it’s a software company, I’ll use their tools and software relevant. But in the actual conversation, I constantly am searching for simple but profound insights at various levels of abstraction. Sometimes this means asking a trivial question in hopes of uncovering the non-trivial, counterintuitive but fundamental idea that opens the door to a whole new way of looking at the field.
And actually, every guest is their own puzzle. Like preparing for Rick Rubin was me listening to hundreds of songs he produced and even learning some on guitar like Hurt by Johnny Cash. Preparing for the Cursor Team episode meant obviously I had to use Cursor fully for several weeks; all of its features. I switched completely from VS Code to Cursor. For Paul Rosolie, round two especially, I literally went deep into the jungle with Paul and almost died fully taking the leap toward adventure with him.
When it gets close to the conversation, I’ll start working on the actual interview questions and notes. And there I’m asking myself what am I personally curious about? I love podcasts. I’m a big fan of many, many podcasts, and so I ask myself, “What would I want this person to explain on a podcast? And maybe what aspect of their thought process or their humanity would I want to be surfaced or have the chance to be surfaced?”
In the actual conversation, I always try to put my ego aside completely and do whatever it takes to have a good conversation and serve the listener. This means asking questions, simply trying to define terms and give context if needed, being open-minded, vulnerable, curious, and challenging the guests when needed. Despite the claims on the internet, I do ask a lot of challenging questions, including follow-ups, but always with empathy. I don’t need to be right. I don’t need to signal my moral or intellectual superiority to anyone. I try to do the opposite actually, because I want the guest to open up. And I trust the intelligence of the listener to see for themselves if the guest is full of shit or not, to detect the flaws and the strengths of how the guest thinks or who they are deep down. A lot of times when interviewers grill the guest, it doesn’t reveal much except give a dopamine hit to the echo chambers who hate the guest.
As I said in the intro, I believe the line between good and evil does run through the heart of every man. The resulting conversations are sometimes a failure, sometimes because they are too short, sometimes because the chemistry was just not working, sometimes because I fucked it up. I try to take risks, give it everything I got and enjoy the rollercoaster of it all no matter what. And as I said, I trust the listener to put it all together and I trust the critic to tear it apart. And I love you all for it.
Travel and setup
All right, I got a bit of a fun question. It’s a long one. Delian, cool name, wrote in saying he spotted me out in the wild and had a question about it. He wrote, “I saw Lex working at the Detroit Airport between flights. I hesitated and ultimately decided not to interrupt since he was in focus mode.” True. “Lex had his headphones, earbuds on,” listening to brown noise, “Microsoft’s surface propped up at eye level, Kinesis Advantage keyboard on the table. The use of Microsoft Windows is surprising, but it has been discussed in the past.” True. “The ergonomics of the setup surface at eye level means that Lex cares about his health. But the anomalously large Kinesis advantage keyboard seems like such a burden to lug around airports. I cannot help but ask why is it that Lex is going through the hassle to bring this absolutely large keyboard with him as carry-on? It barely fits in a backpack. Carrying it around must be necessary for Lex for some reason.” I love the puzzle of this, that you’re trying to think through this. “The pain of lugging this tool around must be much smaller than the problem it solves for it? What problem does this keyboard solve? What makes it necessary at the airport? Productivity? Health? RSI?”
Good questions. Thank you, Delia. Great question. It made me smile, so I thought I’d answer. I remember that day. There was something else about that day, aside from the keyboard that I miss, so I am filled with a melancholy feeling that is appropriate for the holiday season. Let me try to set the melancholy feeling aside, answer a question about my computer setup when I’m traveling. Whether I’m going to SF, Boston, Austin, London, or the front in Ukraine, I am always bringing the Kinesis keyboard. I don’t have RSI or any other health issues of that kind that I’m aware of, even though I’ve been programming, playing guitar, doing all kinds of combat sports my whole life, all of which put my hands and fingers in a lot of precarious positions and situations. For that reason, and in general, ergonomics have never been a big concern for me. I can work on a crappy chair and a table, sleep on the floor. It’s all great. I’m happy with all of it.
Why Kinesis? Which, by the way, is right here. I had to think about it. Your question actually made me reflect. And I was hoping as I’m answering it the truth will come off on many levels. It is true that I’m more productive with it. I can type and correct mistakes very fast compared to a regular keyboard, both in natural language typing and in programming. Fast enough, I think, where it feels like I can think freely without the physical bottlenecks and constraints of fingers moving. The bit rate in Neuralink parlance is high enough for me to not feel like there is cognitive friction of any kind.
But the real answer may be the deeper, more honest answer or something else. I’ve used the Kinesis keyboard for over 20 years, so maybe it’s like one of those love stories where a guy and a girl love each other and you try to quit because it doesn’t quite work, but every time you leave, you ask yourself, “Why?” And then you realize that when you’re together, your life is just full of simple joys, so what’s the point of leaving? What’s the point of life if not to keep close to you the things that bring you joy, Delia? Like this keyboard, it brings me joy. It’s a bad metaphor, over anthropomorphized perhaps, but I never promised a good one. I’m like a cheap motel on a road trip; low quality is part of the charm. I do have some good motel stories for another time. This does not feel like the appropriate time. All that said, to disagree with myself, I did use Emacs also for over 20 years, and in a single week recently switched to VS Code and then Cursor and never looked back. Take my romantic nature with a grain of salt.
Yes, eventually I’ll have to leave, but for now, you’ll keep finding me on occasion in a random airport somewhere listening to brown noise, writing away the hours on this Kinesis keyboard. Now, if you see me without it, maybe it’ll give you the same change of melancholy feeling I feel now in looking back to that airport in Detroit.
Anyway, more about my travel setup, if anyone’s curious. I usually do travel with a Windows laptop, but I am mostly using Linux on it through WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux. And in some cases, I’m dual booting Linux and Windows. I also need to be able to video edit, so on a longer trips, I usually have a bigger laptop with a bigger screen, lots of memory, good CPU, good GPU. All of that helps with video editing on Adobe Premiere. In general, I’m extremely minimalist except for the few, let’s call them the sentimental things, like all my podcast recording equipment fits into a small suitcase. I try to keep it as simple as possible. Thank you for the question, and see you at the next airport.
Conclusion
All right, I think it’s time to bring things to close. I’d like to give a big thanks to you for giving me your time and your support over the years. It means the world. If you want to get in touch with me, go to lexfridman.com/contact. There you can give feedback, ask questions, request guests for the podcast, or submit the Coffee with Lex form if you just want to chat with me over a cup of coffee. I’ll be traveling across the world a bunch this year, from Europe to South America and more, so it would be cool to do some small meetups and meet some interesting people. This has been a journey of a lifetime. Thank you for everything. Onto the next adventure. I love you all.
Transcript for Adam Frank: Alien Civilizations and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life | Lex Fridman Podcast #455
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #455 with Adam Frank.
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Therefore, you could put a probability, we called it the Pessimism Line. We don’t really know what nature sets for the probability of making intelligent civilizations, but we could set a limit using this. We could say, look, if the probability per habitable zone planet is less than 10 to the minus-22, one in 10 billion trillion, then yeah, we’re alone. If it’s anywhere larger than that, then we’re not the first. It’s happened somewhere else. To me, that was mind-blowing. It doesn’t tell me there’s anybody nearby, the galaxy could be sterile. It just told me that unless nature’s really has some bias against civilizations, we’re not the first time this has happened. This has happened elsewhere over the course of cosmic history.
The one answer I can tell you, which was an important part of the problem, is how many planets are there? Just like people have been arguing about the existence of life elsewhere for 2500 years, people have been arguing about planets for the exact same amount of time. You can see Aristotle yelling at Democritus about this. You can see they had very wildly different opinions about how common planets were going to be, and how unique Earth was. And that question got answered. Which is pretty remarkable, that in a lifetime, you can have a 2500-year-old question. The answer is they’re everywhere. There are planets everywhere.
It was possible that planets were really rare. We didn’t really understand how planets formed. If you go back to, say the turn of the 20th Century, there was a theory that said planets formed when two stars passed by each other closely, and then material was gravitationally squeezed out. In which case, those kinds of collisions are so rare that you would expect one in a trillion stars to have planets. Instead, every star in the night sky has planets.
A proto-star is basically the young star, this ball of gas where nuclear reactions are getting started. But it’s also a disc. As material falls inward because everything’s rotating, as it falls inward, it’ll spin up and then it’ll form a disc. The material will collect in what’s called an accretion disc or a proto-planetary disc. You can simulate all of that.
Once you get into the disc itself and you want to do planets, things get a little bit more complicated because the physics gets more complicated. Now you got to start worrying about dust, because actually dust … Dust is the wrong word. It’s smoke, really. These are the tiniest bits of solids. They will coagulate in the disc to form pebbles, and then the pebbles will collide to form rocks. And then the rocks will form boulders, et cetera, et cetera. That process is super complicated. But we’ve been able to simulate enough of it to begin to get a handle on how planets form. How you accrete enough material to get the first proto-planets, or planetary embryos as we call them.
The next step is those things start slamming into each other to form planetary-sized bodies. Then the planetary bodies slam into each other. Earth, the Moon came about because there was a Mars-sized body that slammed into the Earth and basically blew off all the material. Then eventually formed the Moon.
There’s a really interesting point. Close to the star, temperatures are really high. The only thing that can condense, that can freeze out, is going to be stuff like metals. That’s why you find Mercury is this giant ball of iron, basically. Then as you go further out, stuff, the gas gets cooler. And now you can start getting things like water to freeze. There’s something we call the Snow Line, which is somewhere in our solar system, out around between Mars and Jupiter. That’s the reason why the giant planets in our solar system, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, all have huge amounts of ice in them, or water and ice.
Actually, Jupiter and Saturn don’t have so much, but the moons do. The moons have so much water in them that there’s oceans. We’ve got a number of those moons have got more water on them than there’s water on Earth.
Once you get up to a planet-sized body, then you have to switch over to almost a different kind of simulation. Often what you’re doing is you’re assuming the planet this this spherical ball, and then you’re doing a 1D, a radial calculation. You’re just asking, “All right, what is the structure of it going to be? Am I going to have a solid iron core, or am I going to get a solid iron core with a liquid iron core out around it?” Like we have on Earth. Then you get a silicate, rocky mantle, and then a crust. All those details, those are beyond being able to do full 3D simulations from Ab Initio, from scratch. We’re not there yet.
This is what’s wild. The most common kind of planet in the universe, we don’t have in our solar system. Which is amazing, right? We’ve been able to study or observe enough planets now to get a census. We have an idea of whose average, whose weird. Our solar system’s weird, because the average planet has a mass somewhere between a few times the mass of the Earth, to maybe 10 times the mass of the Earth. That’s exactly where there are no planets in our solar system.
The smaller ones of those we call Super-Earths, the larger ones we call Sub-Neptunes. They’re anybody’s guess. We don’t really know what happens to material when you’re squeezed to those pressures, which is millions, tens of millions of times the pressure on the surface of the Earth. Those details really will matter of what’s on in there, because that will determine whether or not you have, say for example, plate tectonics.
We think plate tectonics may have been really important for life on Earth, for the evolution of complex life on Earth. It turns out, and this is the next generation where we’re going with the understanding the evolution of planets and life. It turns out that you actually have to think hard about the planetary context for life. You can just be like, “Oh, there’s a warm pond,” and then some interesting chemistry happens in the warm pond. You actually have to think about the planet as a whole and what it’s gone through in order to really understand whether a planet is a good place for life or not.
Early on in Earth’s history, there was barely any land. We were actually a water world, with just a couple of Australia-sized cratons they called them, proto-continents.
We went through these snowball Earth phases. If it wasn’t for the fact that we had an active plate tectonics, which had a lot of vulcanism on it, we could have been locked in that forever. Once you get into a snowball state, a planet can be trapped there forever. Which is maybe you already had life formed, but then because it’s so cold, you may never get anything more than just microbes.
What plate tectonics does, because it fosters more vulcanism, is that you’re going to get carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere, which warms the planet up and gets you out of the snowball Earth phase. But even more, there’s even more really important things.
I just finished a paper where we were looking at something called the Hard Steps Model, which is this model that’s been out there for a long time that purports to say intelligent life in the universe will be really rare. It made all these assumptions about the Earth’s history, particularly about the history of life and the history of the planet have nothing to do with each other. It turns out, and as I was doing the reading for this, that Earth probably, early on, had a more mild form of plate tectonics, and then somewhere about a billion years ago, it ramped up.
That ramping up changed everything on the planet, because here’s a funny thing. The Earth used to be flat. All the Flat Earthers out there can get excited for one second.
The weathering of that, the erosion of that puts huge amounts of nutrients, things that microbes want to use, into the oceans. And then what we call the net primary productivity, the bottom of the food chain, how much sugars they are producing, how much photosynthesis they are doing shot up by a factor of almost 1000. The fact that you had plate tectonics supercharged evolution in some sense. We’re not exactly sure how it happened, but it’s clear that the amount of life, the amount of living activity that was happening really got a boost from the fact that something there was this new vigorous form of plate tectonics.
But then you go through this period they called the Boring Billion, where it’s a billion years and it’s just microbes. Nothing’s happening, it’s just microbes. The microbes are doing amazing things. They’re inventing fermentation. Thank you very much, we appreciate that. But it’s not until you get probably these continents slamming into each other, you really get the beginning of continents forming and driving changes that evolution has to respond to. That on a planetary scale, this turmoil, this chaos is creating new niches, as well as closing other ones. Biology, evolution has to respond to that.
Somewhere around there is when you get the Cambrian Explosion. It’s when suddenly every body plan … Evolution goes on an orgy, essentially. Yeah. It does look like that chaos or that turmoil was actually very helpful to evolution.
With the comet impact, the K-T Boundary, certainly lots of niches opened up. That’s why we’re here, because our ancestors were little basically rodents, rats living under the footsteps of the dinosaurs. It was that comet impact that opened the route for us. That still took another 65 million years. It was like this thing immediately happened.
But what we found with this Hard Steps Paper, because the whole idea of the Hard Steps Paper was it was one of these anthropic reasoning kinds of things. Where Brandon Carter said, “Oh, look. The intelligence doesn’t show up on Earth until about almost close to when the end of the Sun’s lifetime.” He’s like, “Well, there should be no reason why the Sun’s lifetime and the time for evolution to produce intelligence should be the same.” He goes through all this reasoning, anthropic reasoning. He ends up with the idea that, “Oh, it must be that the odds of getting intelligence are super-low, and so that’s the hard step.”
There was a series of steps in evolution that were very, very hard. Because of that, you can calculate some probability distributions. Everybody loves a good probability distribution, and they went a long way with this. But it turns out that the whole thing is flawed because, when you look at it, of course the timescale for the Sun’s evolution and the timescale for the evolution on life are coupled, because the timescale for evolution of the Earth is coupled, is about the same timescale as the evolution of the Sun. It’s billions of years. The Earth evolves over billions of years.
Life and the Earth co-evolve. That’s what Brandon Carter didn’t see is that actually, the fate of the Earth the fate of life are inextricably combined. This is really important for astrobiology, too. Life doesn’t happen on a planet, it happens to a planet. This is something that David Grinspoon and Sara Walker both say, and I agree with this. It’s a really nice way of putting it.
Plate tectonics, the evolution of oxygen, of an oxygen atmosphere, which only happened because of life. These things, these are things that are happening where life and the planet are sloshing back-and-forth. Rather than, to your point about do you need giant catastrophes, maybe not giant catastrophes. But what happens is, as the Earth and life are evolving together, windows are opening up, evolutionary windows.
For example, life put oxygen into the atmosphere. When life invented this new form of photosynthesis about 2.5 billion years ago, that broke water apart to work to do its chemical shenanigans. It broke water apart and pushed oxygen into the atmosphere. That’s why there’s oxygen in the atmosphere. It’s only because of life.
That opened up huge possibilities, new spaces for evolution to happen. But it also changed the chemistry of the planet forever. The introduction of oxygen photosynthesis changed the planet forever, and it opened up a bunch of windows for evolution that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. Like for example, you and I, we need that amount of oxygen. Big-brained creatures need an oxygen-rich atmosphere because oxygen is so potent for metabolism. You couldn’t get intelligent creatures 100 million years after the planet formed.
There was this thing, Gaia Theory, which James Lovelock introduced in the ’70s. And then, Lynn Margulis, the Biologist Lynn Margulis together. This Gaia Theory was the idea that life takes over a planet, life hijacks a planet in a way that the sum total of life creates these feedbacks between the planet and the life, such that it keeps the planet habitable. It’s kind of a homeostasis.
I can go out … Right now outside, it’s 100-degrees. And I go outside, but my internal temperature is going to be the same. I can go back to Rochester, New York in the winter, and it’s going to be zero-degrees, but my internal temperature is going to be the same. That’s homeostasis.
The idea of Gaia Theory was that life, the biosphere exerts this pressure on the planet or these feedbacks on the planet, that even as other things are changing, the planet will always stay in the right kinds of conditions for life. Now when this theory came out, it was very controversial. People were like, “Oh my God, what are you, smoking weed?” There were all these Gaian Festivals with Gaian dances. It became very popular in the New Age community.
But Lovelock actually, they were able to show that no, this has nothing to do with the planet being conscious or anything. It was about these feedbacks, that the biology, the biosphere can exert these feedbacks. We’re still unclear whether there are true Gaian feedbacks, in the sense that the planet can really exert complete control. But it is absolutely true that the biosphere is a major player in Earth’s history.
The biosphere is somewhere … Sara Walker, and David Grinspoon, and I actually did a paper on this about the idea of planetary intelligence, or cognition across a planetary scale. I think that actually is possible. It’s not conscious, but there is a cognitive activity going on. The biosphere, in some sense, knows what is happening because of these feedbacks. It’s still unclear whether we have these full Gaian feedbacks, but we certainly have semi-Gaian feedbacks.
If there’s a perturbation on the planetary scale, temperature, insulation, how much sunlight’s coming in, the biosphere will start to have feedbacks that will damp that perturbation. Temperature goes up, the biosphere starts doing something, temperature comes down.
Now we just invented this technosphere in the last couple of hundred years. What we were arguing in that paper is that it’s an immature technosphere. Because right now, with climate change and all the other things we’re doing, the technosphere right now is destroying the conditions under which it needs to maintain itself. The real job for us if we’re going to last over geological timescales, if we want a technosphere that’s going to last tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of years, then we’ve got to become mature. Which means to not undermine the conditions, to not subvert the conditions that you need to stay alive. As of right now, I’d say we’re not autopoietic.
But what you can think of right now with what’s happening with the Anthropocene, the great acceleration that is the technosphere, is the creation of it, that is a giant perturbation on the biosphere. The technosphere sits on top of the biosphere, and if the technosphere undermines the biosphere for its own conditions of habitability, then you’re in trouble. The biosphere is not going away. There’s nothing we could do. The idea that we have to save the Earth is a little ridiculous. The Earth is not a furry little bunny that we need to protect. But it’s the conditions for us. Humanity emerged out of the Holocene, the last 10,000 years interglacial period. We can’t tolerate very different kinds of Earths. That’s what I mean about a perturbation.
This paper here, this plot is all these different people who’ve written all these papers. This is the point, actually. You can see all these papers that were written on the hard steps. Each one proposing a different set of what those steps should be. There’s this other idea from biology of the major transitions in evolution, MTEs, that those were the hard steps.
But what we actually found was that none of those are actually hard. The whole idea of hard steps, that there are hard steps, is actually suspect. What’s amazing about this model is it shows how important it is to actually work with people who are in the field. Brandon Carter was a brilliant physicist, the guy who came up with this. And then lots of physicists and astrophysicists like me have used this. But the people who actually study evolution and the planet were never involved.
If you went and talked to an evolutionary biologist or a bio-geophysicist, they’d look at you when you explained this to them and they’d be like, “What? What are you guys doing?” It turns out, none of the details, or none of the conceptual structure of this matches with what the people who actually study the planet and its evolution.
Then the next thing is this idea of whether a step is hard or not. Because for hard, what we mean by a hard step is, like I said, every time there’s a generation, every time there’s a next generation born, you’re rolling the dice on whether this mutation will happen. The idea of something being a hard step, there’s two ways in which something might even appear as a hard step and not be. Or actually not be a hard step at all.
One is that you see something that has occurred in evolution that has only happened once. Let’s take the opposite, we see something that’s happened multiple times. Like wings, lots of examples of wings over lots of different evolutionary lineages. Making wings is not a hard step.
There’s certain other things that people say, “No, that’s a hard step.” Oxygen, the oxygen photosynthesis. But they tend to be so long ago that we’ve lost all the information. There could be other things in the fossil record that made this innovation, but they’re just gone now so you can’t tell, so there’s information loss.
The other thing is the idea of pulling up the ladder. That somebody, some species makes the innovation, but then it fills the niche and nobody else can do it again. Yeah, it only happened once but it happened once because basically, the creature was so successful it took over, and there was no space for anybody else to evolve it.
Yeah. The interesting thing about this was seeing how much, once you look at the details of life’s history on Earth, how it really shifts you away from this hard steps model. It shows you that those details, as we were talking about with do you have to know about the planet, do you have to know about plate tectonics? Yeah, you’re going to have to.
Again, nothing against Carter. It was a brilliant idea. But it just goes to show you … I’m a theoretical physicist. Give me a simplified model, with dynamical equations and some initial conditions, I’m very happy. But there’s this great XTC comic, where somebody’s working something out on the board, and this physicist is looking over and saying, ” Oh, oh, I just wrote down an equation for that. I solved your problem. Do you guys even have a journal for this?” The subtitle is Why Everybody Hates Physicists.
Frank Drake in 1960 does the first ever astrobiological experiment. He gets a radio telescope, points it at a couple of stars, and listens for signals. That was the first time anybody had done any experiment about any kind of life in the history of humanity. He does it, and he’s waiting for everybody to make fun of him. Instead, he gets a phone call from the government and says, “Hey, we want you to do a meeting on interstellar communications.” He’s like, “Okay.”
They organized a meeting with just eight people. A young Carl Sagan is going to be there as well. The night before, Drake has to come up with an agenda. How do you come up with an agenda for a meeting on a topic that no one’s ever talked about before? What he does, what’s so brilliant about the Drake Equation, is he breaks the problem of how many civilizations are there out there into a bunch of sub-problems. He breaks it into seven sub-problems. Each one of them is a factor in an equation that, when you multiply them all together, you get the number of civilizations out there that we could communicate with.
The first term is the rate at which stars form. The second term is the fraction of those stars that have plants, F-sub-P. The next term is the number of planets in the habitable zone, the place where we think life could form. The next term after that is the fraction of those planets where actually an abiogenesis event, life forms, occurs. The next one is the fraction of planets on which you start to get intelligence. After that, it’s the fraction of planets where that intelligence goes on to create a civilization. Then finally, the last term, which is the one that we really care about, is the lifetime, have a civilization and how long does it last.
Now each one of these terms, what was brilliant about what he did was, what he was doing was he was quantifying our ignorance. By breaking the problem up into these seven sub-problems, he gave astronomers something to do. This is always with a new research field, you need a research program or else you just have a bunch of vague questions. You don’t even know really what you’re trying to do.
The star people could figure out how many stars were forming per year. The people who were interested in planets could go out and find techniques to discover planets, et cetera, et cetera.
So, the Drake equation is absolutely foundational for astrobiology, but we should remember that it’s not a law of nature. It’s not equal to MC squared. And so, you can see it being abused in some sense. Yeah, it’s generated a trillion papers. Some of those papers are good, I’ve written some of those. And some of those papers are bad, I’m not sure where my paper fits in on those. I’m saying one should be careful about what you’re using it for. But in terms of understanding the problem that astrobiology faces, this really broke it up in a useful way.
It’s incredible to think how many places and stories there are out there. So, the first term was F sub P, which is how many stars have planets. The next term is how many planets are in the habitable zone on average, and it turns out to be one over five, so around 0.2. So, that means you just count five of them go out at night and go one, two, three, four, five. One of them has an Earth-like planet in the habitable zone, like, whoa.
So basically, the habitable zone is the band of orbits around a star where you can have liquid water on the surface. You could take a glass of water, pour it on the surface, and it would just pull up. It wouldn’t freeze immediately, which would happen if your planet is too far out and it wouldn’t just boil away if your planet’s too close in. So, that’s the formal definition of the habitable zone. So, it’s a nice strict definition, there’s probably way more going on than that, but this is a place to start.
I wouldn’t be able to see life on Europa because it’s under 10 miles of ice. So, with the important thing about planets in the habitable zone is that we’re thinking they have atmospheres. Atmospheres are the things we can characterize across 10, 50 light years and we can see biosignatures as we’re going to talk about. So, there is a reason why the habitable zone becomes important for the detection of extra solar life.
So, they were laughing about this as they’re walking, and they started being physicists, started talking about interstellar travel, interstellar propulsion. Conversation goes on for a while, conversation turns to something else, they’ve gone to other things. About 40 minutes later, over lunch, Fermi blurts out, “Well, where is everybody?” Typical Fermi sort of thing. He’d done the calculation in his head and he suddenly realized that, look, if intelligence is common, that even traveling at sub lights speeds a civilization could cross, hop from one star system to the other and spread it out across the entire galaxy in a few hundred thousand years.
And he realized this, and so he was like, “Why aren’t they here now?” And that was the beginning of the Fermi paradox. It actually got picked up as a formal thing in 1975 in a paper by Hart where he actually went through this calculation and showed and said, “Well, there’s nobody here now, therefore, there’s nobody anywhere.” Okay, so that is what we will call the direct Fermi paradox, why aren’t they here now? But something happened after SETI began, where people started to, there was this idea of the great silence. People got this idea in their head that like, “Oh, we’ve been looking for decades now for signals of extra-terrestrial intelligence that we haven’t found any. Therefore, there’s nothing out there.
So, we’ll call that the indirect Fermi paradox and there absolutely is no indirect Fermi paradox for the most mundane of reasons, which is money. There’s never been any money to look. SETI was always done by researchers who were scabbing some time, some extra time from their other projects to look a little bit at the sky where the telescope, telescopes are expensive. So, Jason Wright, one of my collaborators, he and his students did a study where they looked at the entire search space for SETI, and imagine that’s an ocean. All the different stars you have to look at, the radio frequencies you have to look at, how when you look, how often you look.
Then they summed up all the SETI searches that had ever been done, they went through the literature. And what they found was if that search space, if the sky is an ocean and you’re looking for fish, how much of the ocean have we looked at, and it turns out to be a hot tub. That’s how much of the ocean that we’ve looked up. We’ve dragged a hot tub’s worth of ocean water up and there was no fish in it, and so now are we going to say, “Well, there’s no fish in the ocean.” So, there is absolutely positively no indirect Fermi paradox, we just haven’t looked, but we’re starting to look. So finally, we’re starting to look, that’s what’s exciting.
The direct Fermi paradox, there are so many ways out of that. There’s a book called 77 Solutions to the Fermi Paradox that you can pick your favorite one. It just doesn’t carry a lot of weight because there’s so many ways around it. We did an actual simulation, my group, Jonathan Carroll, one of my collaborators, we actually simulated the galaxy and we simulated probes moving at sub light speed from one star to the other, gathering resources heading to the next one. And so, we could actually track the expansion wave across the galaxy, have one IA biogenesis event, and then watch the whole galaxy get colonized or settled. And it is absolutely true that wave crosses, Hart was right, Fermi was right, that wave crosses very quickly. But civilizations don’t last forever, so one question is when did they visit? When did they come to Earth? So, if you give civilizations a finite lifetime, let them last 10,000, 100,000 years, what you find is you now have a steady state. Civilizations are dying, they’re coming back, they’re traveling between the stars. What you find then is you can have big holes opened up. You can have regions of space where there is nobody for millions of years. And so, if we’re living in one of those bubbles right now, then maybe we revisited but we revisited 100 million years ago.
And there was a paper that Gavin Schmidt and I did that showed that if there was a civilization, whether it was dinosaurs or aliens that was here a 100 million years ago, there’s no way to tell, there’s no record left over, the fossil record is too sparse. The only way maybe you could tell is by looking at the isotopic strata to see if there was anything reminiscent of an industrial civilization. But the idea that you’d be able to find iPhones or toppled buildings after 100 million years is there’s no way.
And so, we realized is, “Well, okay, we got to get rid of time.” The lifetime thing, we can’t say anything about that, but if we don’t ask how long do they last but instead ask, “What’s the probability that there have been any civilizations at all?” No matter how long they lasted, I’m not asking whether they exist now or not, I’m just asking in general about probabilities to make a technological civilization anywhere and at any time in the history of the universe and that we were able to constrain. And so, what we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. And what that means is that those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run.
And the only way that we’re this whole process from a biogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if every one of those experiments failed. So therefore, you could put a probability, we called it the pessimism line. We don’t really know what nature sets for the probability of making intelligent civilizations, but we could set a limit using this. We could say, “Look, if the probability per habitable zone planet is less than 10 to the minus 22, 1 in 10 billion trillion, then yeah, we’re alone.” If it’s anywhere larger than that, then we’re not the first, it’s happened somewhere else. And to me, that was mind-blowing. It doesn’t tell me there’s anybody nearby, the galaxy could be sterile.
It just told me that unless nature’s really has some bias against civilizations, we’re not the first time this has happened. This has happened elsewhere over the course of cosmic history.
Gave you an actual number that if you could somehow calculate what the probability of forming a technological civilization was, this thing shows you where the limit is. As long as you’re above 10 to the minus 22, then you actually absolutely, it has occurred in the history. Other civilizations have occurred in the history of the universe.
So, that means you really do need to think about like, “Okay, how do billion-year civilizations manifest themselves? What signatures will they leave?” And yeah, what’s so cool about it, it’s so much fun because you have to imagine the unimaginable. Obviously biological evolution can happen on those kinds of timescales, so you wouldn’t even really be the same thing you started out as. But social forms, what kind of social forms can you imagine that would be continuous over that? Or maybe they wouldn’t be continuous, should get they drop out, they destroy themselves, and then they come back. So, maybe it’s a punctuated evolution, but this is the fun part we have to work this out.
And I don’t think it’ll be necessarily all that different because really I think within a few hundred years we will have lots of people in the solar system, and it doesn’t even have to be on Mars. We did a paper where we look based on, because I always wanted to know about whether an idea in The Expanse was really possible. In The Expanse, the asteroid belt, what they’ve done is they have colonized the asteroid belt by hollowing out the asteroids and spinning them up and living on the inside because they have the Coriolis force. And I thought like, “Wow, what a cool idea.”
And when I ran the blog for NPR, actually talked to the guys and said, “Did you guys calculate this to see whether it’s possible?” Sadly, it’s not possible. The rock is just not strong enough that if you tried to spin it up to the speeds you need to get one third gravity, which is what I think the minimum you need for human beings. The rock would just fall apart, it would break. But we came up with another idea, which was that if you could take small asteroids, put a giant bag around them, a nanofiber bag and spin those up, it would inflate the bag. And then even a small couple of kilometer wide asteroid would expand out to, you could get a Manhattan’s worth of material inside.
So, forget about even colonizing Mars space stations or space habitats with millions of people in them. So anyway, the point is that I think within a few hundred years, it is not unimaginable that there will be millions, if not billions of people living in the solar system.
Whatever you want, a libertarian space habitat, everybody’s going to be able to create, there’ll be lots of experiments in human flourishing. And those kinds of experiments will be really useful for us to figure out better ways for us to interact and have maximum flourishing, maximum wellness, maximum democracy, maximum freedom.
So, I don’t think it’s a backup plan in that way, but I do think, like I said, it’s the prize. If we get through this, then we get the entire solar system to play around and experiment with and do really cool things with.
So, that’s why I think we’d be better off trying to solve these problems than I just think the odds that we’re going to be able to create a self-sufficient colony on Mars before that threat comes to head is small. So, we’d have to deal with the threat.
And so, A, how do we build a vibrant, powerful technosphere that also doesn’t mess with the biosphere, mess with the biosphere’s capacity to support our technosphere? So, by trying to build space habitats, in some sense, you’re thinking about building a small-scale version of this. So, I think the two problems are going to feedback on each other.
I think the Moon’s too much because it’s so sterile. But Mars, I don’t know, maybe. I don’t know, but it’s an interesting idea.
Because the bacteria, even though they’re individual examples of life, and I believe this the true unit of life, it’s not DNA, it’s not a cell, it’s the biosphere. It’s the whole community.
Now, because we know exactly where to look and we know exactly how to look, we can just go about looking for passive signatures of the civilization, going about its civilizationing business, without asking whether they want to be contacted or not. So this is what we call a biosignature or a technosignature. It is an imprint in the light from the planet of the activity of a biosphere or a technosphere, and that’s really important. That is why the whole Gaia idea ends up being astrobiological, that biospheres and technospheres are so potent, they change the entire planet, and you can see that from 20 light years.
So let’s give an example of a biosignature to start off with, which would be a signature of a biosphere, oxygen. Right? On earth at least, we know that oxygen is only in the atmosphere because life put it there. If life went away, the oxygen, and particularly oxygen and methane, that pair, they would disappear very quickly. They’d react away. They’d all be gone. So if you find a planet with oxygen and methane, that’s a good bet that there’s a biosphere there. Okay, what about technospheres? Technospheres, so I’m the principal investigator on the first grant NASA has ever given to do these exoplanet technosignatures. For reasons we can talk about, NASA had gotten pretty gun-shy about funding anything about intelligent life, but okay. What’s an example of a technosignature? Well, one could be atmospheric, “Pollution.” I’m going to put, “Pollution,” in quotes here because it doesn’t have to be pollution, but gases like chlorofluorocarbons.
So we dumped a huge amount of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere by mistake. It was affecting the ozone, but we put so much in there that actually, this is one of the things we did, we did a paper where we showed, you could detect it across interstellar distances. You could look at the atmosphere, look at the light coming from a distant planet, pass the light through a spectrograph and see the spectral lines, the fingerprint, the spectral fingerprint of chlorofluorocarbons in an atmosphere. And that would for sure tell you that there was a technological civilization there, because there’s no other way to make chlorofluorocarbons except through some kind of industrial process.
So one of these things could be the structure of the network of chemical reactions that biology always produces very different chemical networks, who’s reacting with who, than just rock and water. So there’s been some proposals for networked biosignatures. Information theory, you can try and look at the information that is in the different compounds that you find in the atmosphere, and maybe that information shows you like, “Oh, there’s too much information here. There must’ve been biology happening. It’s not just rock.” Same thing for techno. That’s what we’re working on right now, for technosignatures as well.
So our job in this grant is to develop the first ever library of technosignatures. Nobody’s really ever thought about this before. So we’re trying to come up with all the possible ideas for what a civilization might produce that could be visible across interstellar distances. And are these good ones or are these ones going to be hard to detect or such?
And then let the sun act like a lens and collect, focus the light onto the telescope and you would be able to get, and they’ve done… It’s amazing. This idea is insane. They’d be able to get, if everything works out, 24 kilometer resolution. You’d be able to see Manhattan on an exoplanet. And this thing, it sounds insane, but actually, NASA, the team has already gotten through three levels of NASA… There’s the NASA program for, “Give us your wackiest idea.” And then the ones that survive that are like, “Okay, tell us whether that wacky idea is even feasible?” And they’re marching along. And the idea is that they even have plans for how you’d be able to get these probes out into the Oort cloud on relatively fast time scales. You need to be about 500 times as far from the sun as earth is, but right now, the idea seems to hold together.
So probably when I’ll be dead, but when you’re an old man, it’s possible that something like this… Could you imagine having that kind of resolution, a picture of an exoplanet down to kilometers? So I’m very excited about that [inaudible 01:24:26].
Now, we probably couldn’t land, so maybe we take 30 years to build, 10 years to get there, 10 years to get the picture back. Okay, you’re dead, but your kids are… You know what I mean? So it becomes now this multi-generational project. How long did it take to build the pyramids? How long did it take to build the giant cathedrals? Those were multi-generational projects, and I think we’re on the cusp of that kind of project.
For example, there was this planet K2-18b, which they did a beautiful job getting the spectra, and the spectra indicated it may be an entirely new kind of habitable world called a hycean world, hycean meaning hydrogen ocean world. And that is a kind of planet that it would be in the super earth, sub-Neptune domain we were talking about, maybe eight times the mass of the earth. But it’s got a layer of hydrogen, of an atmosphere of hydrogen. Hydrogen is an amazing greenhouse gas. So hydrogen will keep the planet underneath it warm enough that you could get liquid water, you can get a giant ocean of liquid water, and that’s an entirely different kind of planet. That could be habitable planet. It could be a 60 degree warm ocean.
So the data that came out of JWST for that planet was good enough to be able to indicate like, “Oh yeah, you know what? From what we understand with the models, this looks like it could be a hycean world.”
It turns out that a Dyson sphere doesn’t really work, it’s unstable, but a Dyson swarm, and that’s really what he meant, this large collection of large orbiting structures that were able to collect light.
Turns out, sadly, they were not alien megastructures. They were probably gas or dust clouds, but it raised the possibility like, “Oh, these are observable.” And people have worked out the details of what they would look like. You don’t really need direct imaging. You can do transits, right? They’re big enough that when they pass in front of the star, they’re going to produce a little blip of light because that’s what they’re supposed to. They’re absorbing starlight. So people have worked out like, “Well, a square one or a triangular one.”
The next would be to use all the starlight there is from that star. Right? So that’s the Dyson sphere. So Dyson had already proposed his idea of the swarm and Kardashev was picking up. So that’s a type two civilization. Type three is galactic scale, a civilization that could use all the starlight in a galaxy. So where are we now? Remarkably, on a log scale. We’re at 0.7 of a type one.
So there’s a way in which we probably can’t get to a type one without devastating the earth’s climate. The most important thing actually here is probably, this is why space becomes… So the colonization or settlement of space. If we have an idea that we’ve been working on for a while called service worlds, that at some point you probably move a lot of your industry off world. We’ve got Mercury, for example. There’s nothing on Mercury, there’s no life on Mercury. Why don’t you put your energy harvesting there? Because you can’t mess with the biosphere. The biosphere is more powerful than you are. And so there’s limits to how much energy we can harvest to do work on the earth without really adversely affecting the biosphere.
So yeah, right. It’s the kind of technology. I think there’s probably absolutely limits on how much energy you can use, but how do you use that energy? And then also, getting off planet eventually. If you want to use 10 times more energy than that, you’re going to not going to do it on world.
Another possibility is looking for the tailings of asteroid mining. This was an idea, it was a group at Harvard Smithsonian, that to be able to look for… If you’re really chewing up asteroids to build space habitats, there’d be dust particles left around and would they look different from just say the dust from just regular collisions?
So there’s this process called gardening, which is just the micrometeorite, constant rain of micrometeorites, and that’s where you get the lunar regolith. That fine powder on the Moon is because of this gardening. And it turns out it is literally hundreds of millions to billions of years-
If you see an atmosphere that is wildly out of equilibrium that indicates that there’s something happening on that planet biosphere or technosphere that is pumping gases into the atmosphere, that is keeping the whole system from relaxing.
So yeah, there are possibilities along with that. One of the funny things, I don’t know if they’ve gotten past this, but somebody calculated the problem with the Alcubierre drive or this warp drive was that if you dropped out of warp, there would be this spray of gamma rays that would sterilize any planet in front of you. So, it’s like, “Well yeah, you probably don’t want to do that,” but that would be a great bios or techno signature, another planet obliterated.
Because nothing can move across space faster than the speed of light, but spacetime itself can move faster than the speed of light. But here’s the problem with all of those proposals is they all need something. The thing you added, the little fictional term you added into the equations is something called exotic matter and it doesn’t exist. It’s really just something we dreamed up to make the equation to do what we wanted them to do. So, it’s a nice fiction but really right now, we live in this weird moment in history of the great acceleration where the technology we used now is completely different from the technology we used 10 years ago is remarkably different from the technology from 100 years ago.
But I remember playing Assassin’s Creed where everybody’s like, “What is it, it’s 1200?” And everybody’s like, “Stab, stab, stab.” And I was like, “Yeah, it’s a great game.” And then I got Assassin’s Creed II and it was 300 years later and everybody’s like, “Stab, stab, stab.” And it was like 300 years and the technology hadn’t changed and that was actually true for most of human history. You used your great-grandfather’s tools because there was no need to have any other new tools and you probably did his job. So, we could be fooled into thinking like, “Oh, technology’s going to go on forever, we’re always going to find new advances.”
As opposed to sometimes things just flatten out for a long time. So, you have to be careful about that bias that we have living in this time of great acceleration.
So, I don’t know. Yeah, there’s no way I’m going to say that we won’t get warp drives. But as of right now, it’s all fictional. It’s barely even a coherent concept.
I thought that was a really interesting inversion. The interesting thing about, we were talking about these space habitats.
And that anybody we meet is going to be a machine anyway, whether it’s downloaded bodies or it’s just going to be artificial intelligence. There’s the whole idea of how long does biological evolution last? Maybe it’s a very short period before everybody goes to, or the machines take over and kill you, or it’s some hybrid.
And so, evolution’s about solving problems to survive that the environment presents. And the environment’s always going to present these problems in physical and chemical terms, so that you’d expect a balance between what we call convergence, evolutionary convergence and evolutionary contingency. So, if you’ve got to move along a surface, a hard surface and air, then the idea of some kind of jointed stick legs makes sense that you’re probably going to trigger that. If you look at Earth’s history multiple times, multiple lineages that had nothing to do with each other are going to solve the problem of getting towards energy sources using some kind of stick-like apparatus.
So, what we’ve been talking about is convergence. You expect that evolution will converge on wings multiple times when presented with the problems that wings can solve. But contingency is accidents that you’ve got something that’s evolving a certain kind of wing, a leathery wing. And then the climate changes and they all die out, end of story or an asteroid, total accident, asteroid hits. And so, contingency accidents play also a huge role in evolution. And one of the things that lots of evolutionary biologists have talked about is the idea that if you ran the tape of Earth’s history over again, would you get the same creatures? Now, Stephen Jay Gould was of the opinion that no way, you wouldn’t find anything on Earth that resembled any species today.
They’ve done experiments actually on this with E. coli. You take a bunch of E. coli, you let them evolve for a while, you take a bunch of them out, freeze them, let one, let that population continue to evolve, the other one’s frozen. Now, started over again with the frozen. And it seems to be that contingency tends to win. At least from what we can tell, that’s not a hard result, but in those experiments, what you find is that accidents really do matter. And this is important, so yes, you should expect legs or jointed sticks, how many joints they’re going to be? Anybody’s guess.
Do you expect humanoids, things with a sensing apparatus on top of a shoulder with two arms and two legs? That’s probably a pretty random set of occurrences that led to that.
But the very interesting thing about purpose is that once you do get to a idea generating species or collective organism, yeah, then all bets are off and there is goals, there is teleology. Now suddenly, absolutely, there’s a direction implied. So that’s a cool interesting thing that once you get to that, evolution stops being goalless and directionless and suddenly, yeah, we’re the ones who supply or any kind of creature like us has an absolute direction that way they decide on.
So, definitely we should be cautious, I would say, because we just have zero information. And the idea, you used to have this idea of, well, if they’re advanced, they’ve managed to survive. So of course, they’re going to be wearing togas and be singing kumbaya, but I just wouldn’t assume that. It’s also possible though that their cognitive structure is so different that we’re not even living in the same universe in a certain way. I think we have to be prepared for that. We may not even be able to recognize each other in some way as cognizing beings. One of my favorite movies is Arrival, I don’t know if you’ve ever seen that one.
I really love that one because they literally, they have a different language. They have a different cognitive structure in terms of their language, and they’re literally living in a different physics.
And in the movie, they send a Carl Sagan guy in and a linguist, and the Carl Sagan guy fails immediately. And it’s the linguist who understands that language is actually embodied. Language is not just something that happens in your head, it’s actually the whole experience and she’s the one who breaks through. And it just points to the idea that how utterly different the cognitive structures of a different species should be. So somehow, we have to figure out how to think about it, but be so careful of our biases or figure out a systematic way to break through our biases and not just make science fiction movies. You know what I mean?
So, those are the kind of questions. Like I said, it’s not high on my list of thinking this could happen, but it could happen. Unless you look, you don’t know.
And I’ve begun to internalize and understand that perspective of why you’re doing that. And if I was an alien civilization, I probably would be doing a similar kind of thing. And of course, there’s always the teenager or the troll who’s going to start messing with this stuff or the scientists.
Because the idea that when you ask, what would you do if you were an alien? But again, alien minds could be so unbelievably different that they wouldn’t even recognize the question you just posed.
Because we have this thing that we call standards of evidence, and it’s the idea of you have a piece of evidence that you want to link to a claim. And under what conditions can you say, “Oh, look, I’ve got evidence of this claim X, Y, and Z.” And in science, we are so mean to each other about whether or not that piece of evidence lives up to the standards that we have. And we spent 400 years determining what those standards are, and that is why cell phones work. If you didn’t have super rigorous standards about what you think that’s, “Oh, this little antenna, I’ve invented a new kind of antenna that I can slip into the cell phone and I can show you that it works.”
If you didn’t have these standards, every cell phone would be a brick. And when it comes to UFOs and UAPs, the evidence you have and the claim that though this shows that we are being visited by non-human, advanced civilization just doesn’t even come close to the same standards. I’m going to have to obey or whatever live under. If my team, the group I work with is one of them says, “Look, we’ve discovered and he wants to announce that, oh, we’ve discovered a technosignature on an alien planet.” We’re going to get shredded as we expect to be, we expect to be beaten up. And the UAP, UFO community should expect the same thing. You don’t get a pass because it’s a really cool topic.
So, that’s where I am right now. I just don’t think any of the evidence is even close to anything that could support that claim.
You better have all of that nailed down before you make that kind of claim. So we have to have characterized detectors looking up, down, and maybe on planes themselves, we need a rational search strategy. So let’s say you want to lay out these ground-based detectors. Where do you put them? Right? There’s only so much money in the world, so do you want to put them near places where you’ve seen a lot of things beforehand or do you want to have them try and do sparse coverage of the entire country?
And then you need the data analysts analysis, right? You’re going to have so much data, so many false positives or false triggering that you need a way of sorting through enormous amounts of data and figuring out what you’re going to throw out and what you’re going to keep, and all of these things we’re used to doing in other scientific enterprises. And without that, if we don’t do that, we’re going to be having the same damn argument about these things for the next 100 years.
Like, okay, there’s an advanced civilization that is visiting Earth regularly. They don’t want to be detected. They’ve got super powerful technology, but they really suck at using it because we keep seeing them, we keep seeing them, but then they disappear. I mean, explain to me what rational world that works under. So there’s that whole sort of argument. You’ve got to explain why if they want to stay hidden, are they so bad at it? So that’s why I take that level of difficulty and then I put it on top of where should I look? I should look at where they’re from. That makes me want to look at do the telescopic stuff.
So life has this possibility of innovating, of being creative. So what it means is, and that’s kind of a fundamental definition of what it means to be alive. It goes past itself. So give life enough time and what are the end result? That’s why I love science fiction so much. At some point, does life reach a point where it climbs into the laws of physics itself. It becomes the laws of physics or these sort of lie at the extreme limits of thinking about what we mean by reality, what we mean by experience. But I’m not sure there was much we can do with them scientifically, but they’re open-ended question about the open-ended nature of what it means to be alive and what life can do.
And so yeah, black holes are super cool. Cosmology is super cool. But really this question of what is life? Especially, from by viewing it from the inside, because it’s really about the verb to be. Really what is the most impressing philosophical question beyond science? Is the verb to be, what is being? This is what Stephen Hawking said when he talked about, “What puts the fire in the equations? The fire.” The fire is this presence and this is where it touches things like whatever you want to say it, the sacred, spirituality, whatever you want to talk about. My first book was about science and human spirituality. So this question of life, what makes life as a physical system so different is to me much more because that is where being appears. Being doesn’t appear out there. The only place that ever appears to any of us is us. I can do this kind of projection into this third person thing, but nobody ever has that, that God’s eye view. That’s a story we tell. This is where, this between us is where the verb to be, appears.
It’s this sort of raw presence that you can’t get away from until you die. And then who the hell knows that as long as you’re around, it’s there. And what we’re saying is that, that is the way to say this, that is the precondition for the possibility of science and the whole nature of science, the way it has evolved is that it purposely pushed that out. It pushed that out. So it could make progress, and that’s fine for a certain class of problems. But when we try to answer, when we try and go deeper, there’s a whole other class of problems. The nature of consciousness, the nature of time, quantum mechanics, that comes back to bite us. And that if we don’t learn how to take, understand that, that is always the background, that experience is always the background. Then we just end up with these paradoxes and that require this intellectual yoga to get out of.
So what is it? One is reductionism that you are nothing but your nerve cells, which are nothing but the chemistry, which is nothing but all the way down to quarks. That’s it. So that’s reductionism.
The objective frame that science gives us this god’s eye view, this third-person view of the world to view the world from the outside. That’s what science bequeaths to us, that view.
Physicalism, that everything in the world is basically made of stuff. There’s nothing else to talk about that, that’s all there is. And everything can be reduced to that.
And then also the reification of mathematics, that mathematics is somehow more real than this.
And there’s a bunch of other things. But all these together, what they all do is they end up pushing experience out and saying experience is an epiphenomena. Consciousness. I tend not to use the word consciousness. I think it leads us in the wrong direction. We should focus on experience because it is a verb kind of in a way. It is verb-like and by being blind to that, we end up with these paradoxes and problems that really not only block science, but also have been detrimental to society as a whole, especially where we’re at right now.
We can’t reduce what happens in science to some sort of formal… A lot of it is about we love our formal systems, our mathematics, and we’re substituting. That’s one of the things that, there’s two philosophers we really like for our heroes. One is Husserl, who is a mathematician, who invented phenomenology. And the other is Whitehead, who’s one of the greatest mathematicians of the 20th century. And Husserl came up with this idea of the surreptitious substitution. Part of The Blind Spot is substituting a formal system, a calculus of data for actual experience that that’s more important.
And so let me just do, before I go to those three responses, let’s just do the parable of temperature because I think people can… It’ll help them understand what we mean. So think about degree Celsius. We have in the modern scientific culture we live in, we think like, oh yeah, degree Celsius. They’re out there. The universe, the molecular cloud in space is 10 degrees Kelvin. The way we got there is we’ve forgotten how that idea is rooted in experience. We started off with science by, we had the subjective experience of hot and cold. I feel hot, I feel cold, you feel hot, you feel cold. Science was this process of trying to extract from those experiences what Michel Bitbol philosopher calls, “The structural invariance.” The things that we could both kind of agree on. So we figured out like, oh, we could make a gradiated little cylinder that’s got mercury in it and that hot things will be higher in on that gradiated cylinder, cold things will be lower, and we can both kind of figure out what we’re going to agree on are our standards for that. And then we have thermometry, yay. We have a way of having a structural invariant of this sort of very personal experience of hot or cold.
And then from that, we can come up with thermodynamics, etc. And then we end up at the bottom of that with this idea of everyday I wake up and I check my phone and I’m like, oh, it’s going to be 60 degrees out. Great. And we start thinking that 60 degrees is more real than hot and cold. That thermodynamics, the whole formal structure of thermodynamics is more real than the basic experience of hot and cold that it came from. It required that bodily experience that also, not just me, I have to tell you, it’s part of my communication with you, cold today, isn’t it? That from that basic irreducible experience of being in the world with everything that it involves, I developed degree Celsius, but then I forgot about it. I forgot the experience. So that’s called the amnesia of experience.
So that’s what we mean by how the blind spot emerges, how we end up, how science purposely pushes experience out of the way so it can make progress, but then it forgets that experience was important. So where does this show up? Why is this? What are the responses to trying to get this back in and where this crisis of meaning emerge? So scientific triumphalism is the idea that the only thing that’s true for us are scientific truths. Unless it can be codified in a formal system and represented as data, captured in some kind of scientific causal network, it doesn’t even exist. And anything else that’s not part of it that can be formalized in that way is an epiphenomenon. It’s not real.
So scientific triumphalism is this response to the weirdness of, I could call it the mystery, the weirdness of experience by just ignoring it completely. So there’s no other truth. Art, music, human spirituality, it’s all actually reducible it neural correlates. So that’s one way that it’s been dealt with.
The other way is this sort of, right, you’ve got on the postmodern, the left academic left, you get this thing, science is just a game. It’s just a game from the powerful come up with, which is also not true. Science is totally potent and requires an account for what is happening. So that’s another way to push science away or respond to it. The denial, science denial that happens. That’s also another way of not understanding the balance that science is trying, that we need to establish with experience.
And then there’s just pseudoscience, which wants to sort of say, oh, the new age movement or whatever, which wants to deal with experience by kind of elevating it in this weird pseudo spiritual way or that doesn’t have the rigor of science.
So all of these ways, all of these responses, we have this difficulty about experience. We need to understand how experience fits into the web of meaning, and we don’t really have a good way of doing it yet. And the point of the book was to identify very clearly how the problem manifests, what the problem is, and what its effects are in the various sciences.
That you are always telling those stories from the perspective of already existing, of already being in experience. So whatever account we want to give of the world is going to have to take that as experience as being irreducible and the irreducible starting point. So ultimately, we don’t have an answer. That’s when people are like, “Well, what are you suggesting is the alternative?” It’s like, look, that’s the good work of the next science to come. Well, our job was to point out the problem with this, but what we would argue with is, and we’re thinking about the next book, is this is really going to require a new conception of nature. That doesn’t sort of jump to that third-person… That fictional third-person view and somehow figures out how to do science. Recognizing that it always starts from experience. It always starts from this field of experience. Or in phenomenology, the word is the life world that you’re embedded in. You can’t un-embed yourself from it.
So how do you do… So one of the things that Whitehead said was, “We have to avoid the bifurcation of nature.” And what he meant by that is the bifurcation into scientific concepts, wavelength. Think about seeing a sunset. You can say like, “Oh look, it’s just wavelengths and scattering particles.” And your experience of the redness, the actual experience of the redness and all the other things. It’s not just red. There’s no qualia, there’s no pure redness. Everything that’s happening in the experiential part is just an epiphenomena. It’s just brain states, whatever. He said, “You can’t do that. They’re both real. They’re both accounts. They both need to be integrated.” And so that required, I think, really a different of what we mean by nature.
Quantum mechanics slams you with the idea of the measurement problem. And most important thing about quantum mechanics is you have a dynamical equation, the Schrodinger equation, which you put in, like we talked about before, you have initial conditions and now you’ve got a differential equation and you crank out the differential equation and it makes predictions for the future, right? Exactly like Newtonian physics or its higher versions of the Lagrange or Hamiltonians. But then this other thing happens where it’s like, oh, by the way, as soon as you look at it, as soon as the measurement is made, I have a whole nother set of rules for you. That’s what we call the born rule. And it was telling you right from the beginning that measurement matters, right? So when you’re asking, how will we do this? Quantum mechanics is actually pointing to how to do it.
So there’s been all these different interpretations of the quantum mechanics. Many of them try to pretend the measurement problem isn’t there. Go to enormous lengths like the many-worlds interpretation, literally inventing an infinite number of unobservable parallel universes to avoid the thing that quantum mechanics is telling them, which is that measurements matter. And then you get something like QBism, which is I’m going to advocate for, is a new interpretation of quantum mechanics, which puts the Born rule at the center. Instead of focusing on the Schrodinger equation and the weird things that come out of it, like Schrodinger’s cat and all that other stuff. It says, “No, no, actually the real mystery is the Born rule. Let’s think about the Born rule.” And like you said, that puts the agent, the agent and information at the center of the whole thing.
So we have Shannon information, which is a probability distribution that tells you basically how much surprise there is in a message. Semantic information focuses on meaning, right? Focuses on in a very simple way, just how much of the information that the agent, the critter is getting from the world actually helps it survive. That’s the most basic idea of meaning. We can get all philosophical about meaning, but this is it. Does it help me stay alive or not? And the whole question of agency and autonomy that occurs in this setting of just asking about how do cells move up a chemical gradient to get more food? Kind of has the feel the same sort of architecture as what’s going on in quantum mechanics. So I think what you said is exactly it, how do we bring this sort of recognition? That there’s always us, the agent or life the agent interacting with the world and drawing both giving information and passing information back as a way of doing science, doing hardcore science with experiments, but never forgetting that agency, which also means experience in some sense, is at the center of the whole thing.
So clearly another direction has to be found, and maybe it has nothing to do with this, but I suspect that because so many times the agent or having to deal with the view from the inside or the role of agency. When it comes to time thinking that you can replace the block universe with the actual experience of time. Clocks don’t tell time. We use clocks to tell time. So maybe that even the fundamental nature of time can’t be viewed from the outside, that there’s a new physics theory that is going to come from, that comes from this agential, informational, computational view. I don’t know. But that’s kind of what I think it would be fertile ground to explore.
There’s a kind of phenomenal structure there, which is different from the representation of time that you have with the formal mathematics. And the way we would look at this is that the problem with the surreptitious substitution, the problem with the blind spot is it says, “Oh, no, no, the formal system is time,” but really the only place time appears is with us, where we’re so having a theory that actually could start with us and then stretch out into the universe rather than imposing this imaginary third-person view back on us. Could, that’s a route towards a different way of approaching the whole problem.
So this idea of pulling out from experience, these thinner, abstract, structural invariance, the things that we could actually do science with, and it’s kind of like, we call it an ascending spiral of abstraction. So the problem with the way we do things now is we take those abstractions, which came from experience, and then with something like a computational model of consciousness or experience, we think we can put it back in. You literally pulled out these super thin things, these abstractions neglecting experience because that’s the only way to do science. And then you think somehow, oh, I’m going to jam experience back in and have an explanation for experience.
But the idea why we argue about free will often is because we already have this blind spot view that the world is deterministic because of our equations, which themselves, we treat the equations as if they’re more real than experience. And the equations are a paler… They don’t corral experience. They are a thinner representation. As we like to say, “Don’t confuse the map for the terrain.” What’s happening between us right now and all the weirdness of it. That’s the terrain. The map is what I can write down on equations. And then in the workshop, do experiments on. Super powerful, needs an account, but experience overflows that.
It’s given. So you have to kind of jump in and then try and find a language to account for its structure. But then, so that has not been part of this discussion about you’ll never, good luck finding a YouTube video where someone, a famous scientist is talking about science from a phenomenological point of view, even though it’s a huge branch of philosophy. And then you get the philosophies that occurred from other cores of civilization. So there’s the western core out of which comes the Greeks and the Judeo- Christian Islamic tradition. But then you get India and you get Asia and they developed their own. They were highly complex societies that developed their own responses to these questions. And they, for reasons they had contemplative practice. They were very focused on direct, trying to directly probe attention and experience. They asked questions in ways that the West never really did.
Phenomenology kind of started it, but there’s philosophers like Nagarjuna and Vasubandhu. They’re like the Plato and the Aristotle of those philosophies. And they were really focused on experience in the West. I think maybe because we had the Judeo-Christian tradition where we already had this kind of God who was going to be the frame on which you could always point to that frame in the traditions that came from the classical philosophies of India and Asia. They started always with this. They wanted to know about experience. Their whole philosophies and their logic and their argumentation was based on, I’ve got this experience, I can’t get out of this experience. How do I reason from it? So I think there’s a lot of other philosophical traditions that we could draw from. Not slavishly, we don’t all have to become Buddhists to do it, but there are traditions that really tried to work this out in a way that the Western traditions just didn’t.
The cell membrane lets stuff through, keeps other stuff out. But the cell membrane is part of the processes and it’s a product of the processes that the cell membrane needs, right? In some sense, the cell membrane creates itself. So there’s this strange, it’s always with life, there’s always this strange loop. And so somehow figuring out how to jump into that strange loop is the science that’s ahead of us. And so this idea of causal closure accounting for how the, we talk about downward causation. So reductionism says everything only depends on the microstate. Everything just depends on the atoms. That’s it. If you know the Lagrangian for the standard model, you are done. Of course, in principle, you need God’s computer, but fine. In principle, it could be done. Causal closure, and I was just reading this great paper that sort of argues for this.
There’s ways in which using Epsilon machines and all this machinery from information theory, that you can see ways in which the system can organize itself so that it decouples from the microstates. Now, the macrostate fundamentally no longer needs the microstate for its own description, its own account of the laws, whether that paper is true or not. It’s an example of heading down that road. There’s also Robert Rosen’s work. He was a theoretical biologist who he talked about closure to efficient cause that living systems are organizationally closed, are causally closed so that they don’t depend anymore on the microstate. And he had a proof, which is very contentious. Nobody knows if it’s some argue it’s true, some argue it’s not. But he said that because of this, living systems are not church-turing complete, they cannot be represented as formal systems. So in that way, they’re not axioms, they’re not living systems will not be axioms.
They can only be partially captured by algorithms. Now again, people fight back and forth about whether or not his proof is valid or not. But I’m saying them giving you examples of when you see the blind spot, when you acknowledge the blind spot, it opens up a whole other class of kinds of scientific investigations. The book we thought was going to be really heretical. Obviously most public facing scientists are very sort of in that, especially scientific triumphant. So we were just waiting for the fight. Then the review from science came out and it was totally pro… It was very positive. We’re like, “Oh my God.” Then a review came out in Nature Physics and it was totally positive.
Then a review came out in the Wall Street Journal, kind of criticized, not capitalism, but we criticized all industrial economies for that they had been touched by the blind spots, socialism, communism. It doesn’t matter. These extractive sort of had that sort of view that the is just reducible to resources. The Wall Street Journal gave us a great review. So it feels like there’s actually out there, there is some, among working scientists in particular, there is some dissatisfaction with this triumphalist view and a recognition that we need to shift something in order to jump past these hurdles that we’ve been arguing about forever and we’re sort of stuck in a vortex.
So there’s a great paper, speaking of Santa Fe by David Krakauer, where they looked at sort of information, theoretic measures of individuality. And what you find is it’s actually pretty fluid. My liver cell is an individual, but really it’s part of the liver. And my liver is a separate system, but really it’s part of me. So I’m an individual, yay. But actually I’m part of a society and I couldn’t be me without the entire community of say, language users. I wouldn’t even be able to frame any questions. And my community of language users is part of ecosystems that are alive, that I am a part of, a lineage of. This is like Sarah Walker stuff, and then those ecosystems are part of the biosphere. We’re never separable as opposed to this very atomizing, the triumphal, this science view is wants like Boltzmann brains, you’re just a brain floating in the space.
So that’s why I think the LLMs are not going to, it’s not imitation. It’s going to require, this goes to the brain in the VAT thing. I did an article about the brain in the vat, which was really Evans, I was reporting on Evans. Where they did the brain in the VAT argument. But they said, “Look, in the end, actually the only way to actually get a real brain in the VAT is actually to have a brain in a body.” And it could be a robot body, but you still need a brain in the body. So I don’t think LLMs will get there because they can’t. You really need to be embedded in a world, at least that’s the E-four idea.
The contemplative practice really tries to focus on experience itself. Spend five days at a zen session doing contemplative practice from 7:00 AM. until 9:00 PM, obviously with breaks. And you’ll really get a much deeper understanding of what my own experience is. What is it really like? It forces you to learn how to stabilize your attention because attention is kind of like this thing. It’s usually just like, “Oh, over there. Oh, my foot hurts. Oh, I got to do my taxes. Oh, what’s that guy over there? Why is he wearing those stupid shoes?” And with a contemplative practice, you learn how to stabilize it.
And once you stabilize it, you can now begin to sort of explore the phenomenal nature of it. So what I think I’ve learned from that is kind of whatever, I’m not really kind of real to begin with. The Adam Frank part, the identity, the thing, and the part of me that is real is everything’s coming and going. It’s all coming and going. Well, how could I ever not come and go? And the entire world is just, Buddhism has this idea of co-dependent arising. Nothing exists, nothing has self-nature. Nothing exists by itself. It’s an endless, infinitely connected web.
You’re like, “What?” Every time my teacher gives it to him, I’m like, “What are you talking about?” This is the whole zen thing of up is down, but down is up. You must understand this. So your job with these koans is to sit with them, is to sit with them until you realize what the thing is trying to teach you what aspect of experience it’s trying to teach you. So there’s no answer. No. And in fact, actually, you don’t give an answer. You actually usually have to demonstrate. The first time when I did a call on and the guy was like, “Don’t tell me the answer, show me the answer.” I was like, what are you talking about? But after doing these for years now, I’ve kind of learned the language of them. So I could never tell you. If I told you the answer, I could give you a call and tell you the answer. You’d be like, “What?”
It’s not the words, it’s the So your experience of like, yeah, the cup is empty. With a contemplative practice as it deepens over years, it really does take years. Just like anything in math, it took me years to understand the Lagrangians. You kind of come to a deeper understanding with yeah, the words of, it’s not just like, oh, everything changes. You actually feel that movement. You feel it with breath to breath, and it really becomes, sometimes I have this feeling, this is messed up, but of just joy and it’s not connected to anything. That’s what I’ve kind of gotten from practice. It’s just like, yeah, that passage, that infinite passage of moment to moment that is truly the way things are. And it’s okay. It’s not okay because I have a feeling about it. Okay. I want it to be okay. It just is okay. And so really, it’s a pretty awesome thing.
So these guys are always about, don’t think. I’ve written all this stuff, but they’re guideposts. They’re like the finger pointing at the moon. And there’s the idea of first, your mind is usually scattered. Right now, when I walk out, I’m going to go get the Uber and everything. My mind’s going to be all over the place, but with sitting, first, you concentrate the mind so that there’s no more scatter anymore. The thoughts are still happening, but you’re just not there happening up there. You’re not even paying attention to them. And then as time goes on, you unify the mind, which is this very powerful thing where kind of the self drops away and there’s just this presence.
It’s kind of like a raw presence, and that’s often where the joy up wells from, but you sit with whatever, maybe you’re going to sit and maybe you’re going to go through an hour of being bummed out about your mom who died or something. You’re just going to sit with whatever comes up you’re going to make. That’s why the sitting part, you’re making the commitment. I’m going to sit here with whatever comes up, I will not be moved. And then what You come away with it actually over time, it actually changes kind of who you are. I’m still the asshole I was from New Jersey growing up, but I just have more space now for things.
Somehow in this process, you realize that it really is about helping all sentient beings. That’s the way they frame, just being here to help. So I know that sounds cornball, but especially for a guy from Jersey, which is the main thing is to get over. Your job is to get over. But that’s really what I found. It is actually kind… And so that joy, the joy, some of that joy is just, it’s like this. One of the things I have when I have really, there’s a kind of experience I’ll have in contemplative practice, which will carry out into the world, which is just this gratitude for the fact that the world gives you everything, and there’s a certain way, just the blue sky and the breath, the world is just giving you itself completely unhindered. It holds nothing back. And yeah, that’s kind of the experience. And then you kind of like, “Oh, I need to be helpful, because who’s not having this experience.”
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:58 – Planet formation
- 7:08 – Plate tectonics
- 14:30 – Extinction events
- 18:41 – Biosphere
- 21:39 – Technosphere
- 25:53 – Emergence of intelligence
- 32:06 – Drake equation
- 36:20 – Exoplanets
- 39:04 – Habitable zones
- 42:06 – Fermi Paradox
- 51:04 – Alien civilizations
- 1:00:32 – Colonizing Mars
- 1:12:48 – Search for aliens
- 1:29:13 – Alien megastructures
- 1:35:19 – Kardashev scale
- 1:40:32 – Detecting aliens
- 1:47:14 – Warp drives
- 1:53:21 – Cryogenics
- 1:56:39 – What aliens look like
- 2:05:24 – Alien contact
- 2:16:29 – UFO sightings
- 2:28:14 – Physics of life
- 2:54:05 – Nature of time
- 3:10:29 – Cognition
- 3:14:53 – Mortality
Introduction
Adam Frank
If we don’t ask how long they last, but instead ask what’s the probability that there have been any civilizations at all, now matter how long they lasted. I’m not asking whether they exist now or not, I’m just asking in general about probabilities to make a technological civilization anywhere and at any time in the history of the university. That, we’re able to constrain. What we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. What that means is those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run. The only way that we’re the only time that this whole process from abiogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if everyone one of those experiments failed.
If we don’t ask how long they last, but instead ask what’s the probability that there have been any civilizations at all, now matter how long they lasted. I’m not asking whether they exist now or not, I’m just asking in general about probabilities to make a technological civilization anywhere and at any time in the history of the university. That, we’re able to constrain. What we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. What that means is those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run. The only way that we’re the only time that this whole process from abiogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if everyone one of those experiments failed.
Therefore, you could put a probability, we called it the Pessimism Line. We don’t really know what nature sets for the probability of making intelligent civilizations, but we could set a limit using this. We could say, look, if the probability per habitable zone planet is less than 10 to the minus-22, one in 10 billion trillion, then yeah, we’re alone. If it’s anywhere larger than that, then we’re not the first. It’s happened somewhere else. To me, that was mind-blowing. It doesn’t tell me there’s anybody nearby, the galaxy could be sterile. It just told me that unless nature’s really has some bias against civilizations, we’re not the first time this has happened. This has happened elsewhere over the course of cosmic history.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Adam Frank, an astrophysicist interested in the evolution of star systems and the search for alien civilizations in our universe. This is The Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Adam Frank.
The following is a conversation with Adam Frank, an astrophysicist interested in the evolution of star systems and the search for alien civilizations in our universe. This is The Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Adam Frank.
Planet formation
Lex Fridman
You wrote a book about aliens. The big question, how many alien civilizations are out there?
You wrote a book about aliens. The big question, how many alien civilizations are out there?
Adam Frank
Yeah, that’s the question. The amazing thing is that, after two-and-a-half millennia of people yelling at each other, or setting each other on fire occasionally over the answer, we now actually have the capacity to answer that question. In the next 10, 20, 30 years, we’re going to have data relevant to the answer to that question. We’re going to have hard data finally that will, one way or the other … Even if we don’t find anything immediately, we will have gone through a number of planets. We’ll be able to start putting limits on how common life is.
Yeah, that’s the question. The amazing thing is that, after two-and-a-half millennia of people yelling at each other, or setting each other on fire occasionally over the answer, we now actually have the capacity to answer that question. In the next 10, 20, 30 years, we’re going to have data relevant to the answer to that question. We’re going to have hard data finally that will, one way or the other … Even if we don’t find anything immediately, we will have gone through a number of planets. We’ll be able to start putting limits on how common life is.
The one answer I can tell you, which was an important part of the problem, is how many planets are there? Just like people have been arguing about the existence of life elsewhere for 2500 years, people have been arguing about planets for the exact same amount of time. You can see Aristotle yelling at Democritus about this. You can see they had very wildly different opinions about how common planets were going to be, and how unique Earth was. And that question got answered. Which is pretty remarkable, that in a lifetime, you can have a 2500-year-old question. The answer is they’re everywhere. There are planets everywhere.
It was possible that planets were really rare. We didn’t really understand how planets formed. If you go back to, say the turn of the 20th Century, there was a theory that said planets formed when two stars passed by each other closely, and then material was gravitationally squeezed out. In which case, those kinds of collisions are so rare that you would expect one in a trillion stars to have planets. Instead, every star in the night sky has planets.
Lex Fridman
One of the things you’ve done is simulated the formation of stars. How difficult do you think it is to simulate the formation of planet? Like simulate a solar system through the entire of the evolution of the solar system. This is a numerical simulation sneaking up to the question of how many planets are there.
One of the things you’ve done is simulated the formation of stars. How difficult do you think it is to simulate the formation of planet? Like simulate a solar system through the entire of the evolution of the solar system. This is a numerical simulation sneaking up to the question of how many planets are there.
Adam Frank
That, actually, we’re able to do now. You can run simulations of the formation of planetary system. If you run the simulation, really where you want to start is a cloud of gas, these giant interstellar clouds of gas that may have a million times the mass of the Sun in them. You run a simulation of that, it’s turbulent. Gas is roiling and tumbling. Every now and then, you get a place where the gas is dense enough that gravity gets hold of it and it can pull it downward, so you’ll start to form a proto-star.
That, actually, we’re able to do now. You can run simulations of the formation of planetary system. If you run the simulation, really where you want to start is a cloud of gas, these giant interstellar clouds of gas that may have a million times the mass of the Sun in them. You run a simulation of that, it’s turbulent. Gas is roiling and tumbling. Every now and then, you get a place where the gas is dense enough that gravity gets hold of it and it can pull it downward, so you’ll start to form a proto-star.
A proto-star is basically the young star, this ball of gas where nuclear reactions are getting started. But it’s also a disc. As material falls inward because everything’s rotating, as it falls inward, it’ll spin up and then it’ll form a disc. The material will collect in what’s called an accretion disc or a proto-planetary disc. You can simulate all of that.
Once you get into the disc itself and you want to do planets, things get a little bit more complicated because the physics gets more complicated. Now you got to start worrying about dust, because actually dust … Dust is the wrong word. It’s smoke, really. These are the tiniest bits of solids. They will coagulate in the disc to form pebbles, and then the pebbles will collide to form rocks. And then the rocks will form boulders, et cetera, et cetera. That process is super complicated. But we’ve been able to simulate enough of it to begin to get a handle on how planets form. How you accrete enough material to get the first proto-planets, or planetary embryos as we call them.
The next step is those things start slamming into each other to form planetary-sized bodies. Then the planetary bodies slam into each other. Earth, the Moon came about because there was a Mars-sized body that slammed into the Earth and basically blew off all the material. Then eventually formed the Moon.
Lex Fridman
And all of them have different chemical compositions, different temperatures?
And all of them have different chemical compositions, different temperatures?
Adam Frank
Yeah. The temperature of the material in the disc depends on how far away you are from the star.
Yeah. The temperature of the material in the disc depends on how far away you are from the star.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Adam Frank
It decreases.
It decreases.
There’s a really interesting point. Close to the star, temperatures are really high. The only thing that can condense, that can freeze out, is going to be stuff like metals. That’s why you find Mercury is this giant ball of iron, basically. Then as you go further out, stuff, the gas gets cooler. And now you can start getting things like water to freeze. There’s something we call the Snow Line, which is somewhere in our solar system, out around between Mars and Jupiter. That’s the reason why the giant planets in our solar system, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, all have huge amounts of ice in them, or water and ice.
Actually, Jupiter and Saturn don’t have so much, but the moons do. The moons have so much water in them that there’s oceans. We’ve got a number of those moons have got more water on them than there’s water on Earth.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it’s possible to do that kind of simulation to have a stronger and stronger estimate of how likely an Earth-like planet is? Can we get the physics simulation done well enough to where we can start estimating what are the possible Earth-like things that could be generated?
Do you think it’s possible to do that kind of simulation to have a stronger and stronger estimate of how likely an Earth-like planet is? Can we get the physics simulation done well enough to where we can start estimating what are the possible Earth-like things that could be generated?
Plate tectonics
Adam Frank
Yeah, I think we can. I think we’re learning how to do that now. One part is trying to just figure out how planets form themselves in doing the simulations. That cascade from dust grains up to planetary embryos, that’s hard to simulate because you got to do both the gas, and you got to do the dust and the dust colliding, and all that physics.
Yeah, I think we can. I think we’re learning how to do that now. One part is trying to just figure out how planets form themselves in doing the simulations. That cascade from dust grains up to planetary embryos, that’s hard to simulate because you got to do both the gas, and you got to do the dust and the dust colliding, and all that physics.
Once you get up to a planet-sized body, then you have to switch over to almost a different kind of simulation. Often what you’re doing is you’re assuming the planet this this spherical ball, and then you’re doing a 1D, a radial calculation. You’re just asking, “All right, what is the structure of it going to be? Am I going to have a solid iron core, or am I going to get a solid iron core with a liquid iron core out around it?” Like we have on Earth. Then you get a silicate, rocky mantle, and then a crust. All those details, those are beyond being able to do full 3D simulations from Ab Initio, from scratch. We’re not there yet.
Lex Fridman
How important are those details, like the crust and the atmosphere, do you think?
How important are those details, like the crust and the atmosphere, do you think?
Adam Frank
Hugely important. I’m part of a collaboration at the University of Rochester, where we’re using the giant laser. Literally, this is called the Laboratory for Laser Energetics. We got a huge grant from the NSF to use that laser to slam tiny pieces of silica to understand what conditions are like at the center of the Earth. Or even more importantly, the center of Super-Earths.
Hugely important. I’m part of a collaboration at the University of Rochester, where we’re using the giant laser. Literally, this is called the Laboratory for Laser Energetics. We got a huge grant from the NSF to use that laser to slam tiny pieces of silica to understand what conditions are like at the center of the Earth. Or even more importantly, the center of Super-Earths.
This is what’s wild. The most common kind of planet in the universe, we don’t have in our solar system. Which is amazing, right? We’ve been able to study or observe enough planets now to get a census. We have an idea of whose average, whose weird. Our solar system’s weird, because the average planet has a mass somewhere between a few times the mass of the Earth, to maybe 10 times the mass of the Earth. That’s exactly where there are no planets in our solar system.
The smaller ones of those we call Super-Earths, the larger ones we call Sub-Neptunes. They’re anybody’s guess. We don’t really know what happens to material when you’re squeezed to those pressures, which is millions, tens of millions of times the pressure on the surface of the Earth. Those details really will matter of what’s on in there, because that will determine whether or not you have, say for example, plate tectonics.
We think plate tectonics may have been really important for life on Earth, for the evolution of complex life on Earth. It turns out, and this is the next generation where we’re going with the understanding the evolution of planets and life. It turns out that you actually have to think hard about the planetary context for life. You can just be like, “Oh, there’s a warm pond,” and then some interesting chemistry happens in the warm pond. You actually have to think about the planet as a whole and what it’s gone through in order to really understand whether a planet is a good place for life or not.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think plate tectonics might be useful for the formation of complex life?
Why do you think plate tectonics might be useful for the formation of complex life?
Adam Frank
There’s a bunch of different things. One is that the Earth went through a couple of phases of being a snowball planet. We went into a period of glaciation where pretty much the entire planet was under ice. The oceans were frozen.
There’s a bunch of different things. One is that the Earth went through a couple of phases of being a snowball planet. We went into a period of glaciation where pretty much the entire planet was under ice. The oceans were frozen.
Early on in Earth’s history, there was barely any land. We were actually a water world, with just a couple of Australia-sized cratons they called them, proto-continents.
We went through these snowball Earth phases. If it wasn’t for the fact that we had an active plate tectonics, which had a lot of vulcanism on it, we could have been locked in that forever. Once you get into a snowball state, a planet can be trapped there forever. Which is maybe you already had life formed, but then because it’s so cold, you may never get anything more than just microbes.
What plate tectonics does, because it fosters more vulcanism, is that you’re going to get carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere, which warms the planet up and gets you out of the snowball Earth phase. But even more, there’s even more really important things.
I just finished a paper where we were looking at something called the Hard Steps Model, which is this model that’s been out there for a long time that purports to say intelligent life in the universe will be really rare. It made all these assumptions about the Earth’s history, particularly about the history of life and the history of the planet have nothing to do with each other. It turns out, and as I was doing the reading for this, that Earth probably, early on, had a more mild form of plate tectonics, and then somewhere about a billion years ago, it ramped up.
That ramping up changed everything on the planet, because here’s a funny thing. The Earth used to be flat. All the Flat Earthers out there can get excited for one second.
Lex Fridman
Clip it. It still is.
Clip it. It still is.
Adam Frank
What I mean by that is that there really weren’t many mountain ranges. The beginning of, I think the term is orogenesis, mountain building, the true Himalayan-style giant mountains, didn’t happen until this more robust form of plate tectonics, where the plates are really being driven around the planet. That is when you get the crusts hitting each other, and they start pushing into these Himalayan- style mountains.
What I mean by that is that there really weren’t many mountain ranges. The beginning of, I think the term is orogenesis, mountain building, the true Himalayan-style giant mountains, didn’t happen until this more robust form of plate tectonics, where the plates are really being driven around the planet. That is when you get the crusts hitting each other, and they start pushing into these Himalayan- style mountains.
The weathering of that, the erosion of that puts huge amounts of nutrients, things that microbes want to use, into the oceans. And then what we call the net primary productivity, the bottom of the food chain, how much sugars they are producing, how much photosynthesis they are doing shot up by a factor of almost 1000. The fact that you had plate tectonics supercharged evolution in some sense. We’re not exactly sure how it happened, but it’s clear that the amount of life, the amount of living activity that was happening really got a boost from the fact that something there was this new vigorous form of plate tectonics.
Lex Fridman
It’s nice to have turmoil. In terms of temperature, in terms of surface geometries, in terms of the chemistry of the planet, turmoil.
It’s nice to have turmoil. In terms of temperature, in terms of surface geometries, in terms of the chemistry of the planet, turmoil.
Adam Frank
Yeah, that’s actually really true. Because what happens is, if you look at the history of life … That’s an excellent point that you’re bringing up. If you look at the history of life on Earth, we get abiogenesis somewhere around at least 3.8 billion years ago. That’s the first microbes. They take over enough that they really do, you get a biosphere. You get a biosphere that is actively changing the planet.
Yeah, that’s actually really true. Because what happens is, if you look at the history of life … That’s an excellent point that you’re bringing up. If you look at the history of life on Earth, we get abiogenesis somewhere around at least 3.8 billion years ago. That’s the first microbes. They take over enough that they really do, you get a biosphere. You get a biosphere that is actively changing the planet.
But then you go through this period they called the Boring Billion, where it’s a billion years and it’s just microbes. Nothing’s happening, it’s just microbes. The microbes are doing amazing things. They’re inventing fermentation. Thank you very much, we appreciate that. But it’s not until you get probably these continents slamming into each other, you really get the beginning of continents forming and driving changes that evolution has to respond to. That on a planetary scale, this turmoil, this chaos is creating new niches, as well as closing other ones. Biology, evolution has to respond to that.
Somewhere around there is when you get the Cambrian Explosion. It’s when suddenly every body plan … Evolution goes on an orgy, essentially. Yeah. It does look like that chaos or that turmoil was actually very helpful to evolution.
Extinction events
Lex Fridman
I wonder if there is some extremely elevated levels of chaos, almost like catastrophes behind every leap of evolution. You’re not going to have leaps. In human societies, we have an Einstein that comes up with a good idea. But it feels like on an evolutionary timescale, you need some real big drama going on for the evolutionary system to have to come up with a solution to that drama. An extra complex solution to that drama.
I wonder if there is some extremely elevated levels of chaos, almost like catastrophes behind every leap of evolution. You’re not going to have leaps. In human societies, we have an Einstein that comes up with a good idea. But it feels like on an evolutionary timescale, you need some real big drama going on for the evolutionary system to have to come up with a solution to that drama. An extra complex solution to that drama.
Adam Frank
Well, I’m not sure if that’s true. I don’t know if it needs to be an almost extinction event.
Well, I’m not sure if that’s true. I don’t know if it needs to be an almost extinction event.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Adam Frank
Because it’s certainly true that we have gone through almost extinction events. We’ve had five mass extinctions. But you don’t necessarily see that there was this giant evolutionary leap happening after those.
Because it’s certainly true that we have gone through almost extinction events. We’ve had five mass extinctions. But you don’t necessarily see that there was this giant evolutionary leap happening after those.
With the comet impact, the K-T Boundary, certainly lots of niches opened up. That’s why we’re here, because our ancestors were little basically rodents, rats living under the footsteps of the dinosaurs. It was that comet impact that opened the route for us. That still took another 65 million years. It was like this thing immediately happened.
But what we found with this Hard Steps Paper, because the whole idea of the Hard Steps Paper was it was one of these anthropic reasoning kinds of things. Where Brandon Carter said, “Oh, look. The intelligence doesn’t show up on Earth until about almost close to when the end of the Sun’s lifetime.” He’s like, “Well, there should be no reason why the Sun’s lifetime and the time for evolution to produce intelligence should be the same.” He goes through all this reasoning, anthropic reasoning. He ends up with the idea that, “Oh, it must be that the odds of getting intelligence are super-low, and so that’s the hard step.”
There was a series of steps in evolution that were very, very hard. Because of that, you can calculate some probability distributions. Everybody loves a good probability distribution, and they went a long way with this. But it turns out that the whole thing is flawed because, when you look at it, of course the timescale for the Sun’s evolution and the timescale for the evolution on life are coupled, because the timescale for evolution of the Earth is coupled, is about the same timescale as the evolution of the Sun. It’s billions of years. The Earth evolves over billions of years.
Life and the Earth co-evolve. That’s what Brandon Carter didn’t see is that actually, the fate of the Earth the fate of life are inextricably combined. This is really important for astrobiology, too. Life doesn’t happen on a planet, it happens to a planet. This is something that David Grinspoon and Sara Walker both say, and I agree with this. It’s a really nice way of putting it.
Plate tectonics, the evolution of oxygen, of an oxygen atmosphere, which only happened because of life. These things, these are things that are happening where life and the planet are sloshing back-and-forth. Rather than, to your point about do you need giant catastrophes, maybe not giant catastrophes. But what happens is, as the Earth and life are evolving together, windows are opening up, evolutionary windows.
For example, life put oxygen into the atmosphere. When life invented this new form of photosynthesis about 2.5 billion years ago, that broke water apart to work to do its chemical shenanigans. It broke water apart and pushed oxygen into the atmosphere. That’s why there’s oxygen in the atmosphere. It’s only because of life.
That opened up huge possibilities, new spaces for evolution to happen. But it also changed the chemistry of the planet forever. The introduction of oxygen photosynthesis changed the planet forever, and it opened up a bunch of windows for evolution that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. Like for example, you and I, we need that amount of oxygen. Big-brained creatures need an oxygen-rich atmosphere because oxygen is so potent for metabolism. You couldn’t get intelligent creatures 100 million years after the planet formed.
Biosphere
Lex Fridman
So really, on a scale of a planet when there’s billions and trillions of organisms on a planet, they can actually have planetary scale impact.
So really, on a scale of a planet when there’s billions and trillions of organisms on a planet, they can actually have planetary scale impact.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
The chemical shenanigans of an individual organism when scaled out to trillions can actually change a planet.
The chemical shenanigans of an individual organism when scaled out to trillions can actually change a planet.
Adam Frank
Yeah. We know this for a fact now.
Yeah. We know this for a fact now.
There was this thing, Gaia Theory, which James Lovelock introduced in the ’70s. And then, Lynn Margulis, the Biologist Lynn Margulis together. This Gaia Theory was the idea that life takes over a planet, life hijacks a planet in a way that the sum total of life creates these feedbacks between the planet and the life, such that it keeps the planet habitable. It’s kind of a homeostasis.
I can go out … Right now outside, it’s 100-degrees. And I go outside, but my internal temperature is going to be the same. I can go back to Rochester, New York in the winter, and it’s going to be zero-degrees, but my internal temperature is going to be the same. That’s homeostasis.
The idea of Gaia Theory was that life, the biosphere exerts this pressure on the planet or these feedbacks on the planet, that even as other things are changing, the planet will always stay in the right kinds of conditions for life. Now when this theory came out, it was very controversial. People were like, “Oh my God, what are you, smoking weed?” There were all these Gaian Festivals with Gaian dances. It became very popular in the New Age community.
But Lovelock actually, they were able to show that no, this has nothing to do with the planet being conscious or anything. It was about these feedbacks, that the biology, the biosphere can exert these feedbacks. We’re still unclear whether there are true Gaian feedbacks, in the sense that the planet can really exert complete control. But it is absolutely true that the biosphere is a major player in Earth’s history.
Lex Fridman
The biosphere fights for homeostasis on Earth.
The biosphere fights for homeostasis on Earth.
Adam Frank
Okay. What I would say right now is I don’t know if I can say that scientifically. I can certainly say that the biosphere does a huge amount of the regulation of the planetary state. And over billions of years, has strongly modified the evolution of the planet. A true Gaian feedback would be exactly what you said.
Okay. What I would say right now is I don’t know if I can say that scientifically. I can certainly say that the biosphere does a huge amount of the regulation of the planetary state. And over billions of years, has strongly modified the evolution of the planet. A true Gaian feedback would be exactly what you said.
The biosphere is somewhere … Sara Walker, and David Grinspoon, and I actually did a paper on this about the idea of planetary intelligence, or cognition across a planetary scale. I think that actually is possible. It’s not conscious, but there is a cognitive activity going on. The biosphere, in some sense, knows what is happening because of these feedbacks. It’s still unclear whether we have these full Gaian feedbacks, but we certainly have semi-Gaian feedbacks.
If there’s a perturbation on the planetary scale, temperature, insulation, how much sunlight’s coming in, the biosphere will start to have feedbacks that will damp that perturbation. Temperature goes up, the biosphere starts doing something, temperature comes down.
Technosphere
Lex Fridman
Now I wonder if the technosphere also has a Gaian feedback or elements of a Gaian feedback? Such that the technosphere will also fight to some degree for homeostasis. Open question, I guess.
Now I wonder if the technosphere also has a Gaian feedback or elements of a Gaian feedback? Such that the technosphere will also fight to some degree for homeostasis. Open question, I guess.
Adam Frank
Well, I’m glad you asked that question. Because that paper that David, and Sara, and I wrote, what we were arguing was is that over the history of a planet … When life first forms, 3.8 billion years ago, it’s thin on the ground. You’ve got the first species, these are all microbes. There are not enough of them to exert any kind of these Gaian feedbacks. We call that an immature biosphere. But then as time goes on, as life becomes more robust and it begins to exert these feedbacks keeping the planet in the place where it needs to be for life, we call that a mature biosphere. I’m sure later on, we’re going to talk about definitions of life and such. There’s this great term called autopoiesis that Francisco Varela, the Neurobiologist Francisco Varela came up with. He said, “One of the defining things about life is this property of autopoiesis,” which means self-creating and self-maintaining. Life does not create the conditions which will destroy itself. It’s always trying to keep itself in a place where it can stay alive. The biosphere, from this Gaian perspective, has been autopoietic for billions of years.
Well, I’m glad you asked that question. Because that paper that David, and Sara, and I wrote, what we were arguing was is that over the history of a planet … When life first forms, 3.8 billion years ago, it’s thin on the ground. You’ve got the first species, these are all microbes. There are not enough of them to exert any kind of these Gaian feedbacks. We call that an immature biosphere. But then as time goes on, as life becomes more robust and it begins to exert these feedbacks keeping the planet in the place where it needs to be for life, we call that a mature biosphere. I’m sure later on, we’re going to talk about definitions of life and such. There’s this great term called autopoiesis that Francisco Varela, the Neurobiologist Francisco Varela came up with. He said, “One of the defining things about life is this property of autopoiesis,” which means self-creating and self-maintaining. Life does not create the conditions which will destroy itself. It’s always trying to keep itself in a place where it can stay alive. The biosphere, from this Gaian perspective, has been autopoietic for billions of years.
Now we just invented this technosphere in the last couple of hundred years. What we were arguing in that paper is that it’s an immature technosphere. Because right now, with climate change and all the other things we’re doing, the technosphere right now is destroying the conditions under which it needs to maintain itself. The real job for us if we’re going to last over geological timescales, if we want a technosphere that’s going to last tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of years, then we’ve got to become mature. Which means to not undermine the conditions, to not subvert the conditions that you need to stay alive. As of right now, I’d say we’re not autopoietic.
Lex Fridman
Wow. I wonder if we look across thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of years, that the technosphere should create perturbations as a way for developing greater and greater defenses against perturbations. Which sounds like a ridiculous statement. But basically, go out and play in the yard and hurt yourself, to strengthen. Or drink water from the pond.
Wow. I wonder if we look across thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of years, that the technosphere should create perturbations as a way for developing greater and greater defenses against perturbations. Which sounds like a ridiculous statement. But basically, go out and play in the yard and hurt yourself, to strengthen. Or drink water from the pond.
Adam Frank
From the pond. Yeah, right. Get sick a few times.
From the pond. Yeah, right. Get sick a few times.
Lex Fridman
To strengthen the immune system.
To strengthen the immune system.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Well, you know it’s interesting with the technosphere, we can talk about this more. We’re just emerging as a technosphere, in terms of as an interplanetary technosphere. That’s really the next step for us. David Grinspoon talks about it. I love this idea of anti-accretion. This amazing thing that, for the first time over the entire history of the planet, stuff is coming off the planet. It used to be everything just fell down, all the meteorites fell down. But now we’re starting to push stuff out. The idea of planetary defense or such, we are actually going to start exerting perturbations on the solar system as a whole. We’re going to start engineering, if we make it. I always like to say that if we can get through climate change, the prize at the end is the solar system. We’ll be literally engineering the solar system.
Yeah. Well, you know it’s interesting with the technosphere, we can talk about this more. We’re just emerging as a technosphere, in terms of as an interplanetary technosphere. That’s really the next step for us. David Grinspoon talks about it. I love this idea of anti-accretion. This amazing thing that, for the first time over the entire history of the planet, stuff is coming off the planet. It used to be everything just fell down, all the meteorites fell down. But now we’re starting to push stuff out. The idea of planetary defense or such, we are actually going to start exerting perturbations on the solar system as a whole. We’re going to start engineering, if we make it. I always like to say that if we can get through climate change, the prize at the end is the solar system. We’ll be literally engineering the solar system.
But what you can think of right now with what’s happening with the Anthropocene, the great acceleration that is the technosphere, is the creation of it, that is a giant perturbation on the biosphere. The technosphere sits on top of the biosphere, and if the technosphere undermines the biosphere for its own conditions of habitability, then you’re in trouble. The biosphere is not going away. There’s nothing we could do. The idea that we have to save the Earth is a little ridiculous. The Earth is not a furry little bunny that we need to protect. But it’s the conditions for us. Humanity emerged out of the Holocene, the last 10,000 years interglacial period. We can’t tolerate very different kinds of Earths. That’s what I mean about a perturbation.
Emergence of intelligence
Lex Fridman
Before we forget, I got to ask you about this paper.
Before we forget, I got to ask you about this paper.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
It’s pretty interesting. There’s an interesting table here about hard steps. Abiogenesis, glucose fermentation to propionic acid, all kinds of steps, all the way to homo sapiens, animal intelligence, land ecosystems, endoskeletons. Eye precursor, so formation of the eye.
It’s pretty interesting. There’s an interesting table here about hard steps. Abiogenesis, glucose fermentation to propionic acid, all kinds of steps, all the way to homo sapiens, animal intelligence, land ecosystems, endoskeletons. Eye precursor, so formation of the eye.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Complex multicellularity.
Complex multicellularity.
Adam Frank
That’s definitely one of the big ones.
That’s definitely one of the big ones.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Interesting. What can you say about this chart? There are all kinds of papers talking about, what, the difficulty of these steps?
Yeah. Interesting. What can you say about this chart? There are all kinds of papers talking about, what, the difficulty of these steps?
Adam Frank
Right. This was the idea. What Carter said was, “We’re using anthropic reasoning.” He said, “There must be a few very hard steps for evolution to get through to make it to intelligence.” Some steps are going to be easy, so every generation, you roll the dice. Yeah, it won’t take long for you to get that step. But there must be a few of them, and he said you could even calculate how many there were, five, six, in order to get to intelligence.
Right. This was the idea. What Carter said was, “We’re using anthropic reasoning.” He said, “There must be a few very hard steps for evolution to get through to make it to intelligence.” Some steps are going to be easy, so every generation, you roll the dice. Yeah, it won’t take long for you to get that step. But there must be a few of them, and he said you could even calculate how many there were, five, six, in order to get to intelligence.
This paper here, this plot is all these different people who’ve written all these papers. This is the point, actually. You can see all these papers that were written on the hard steps. Each one proposing a different set of what those steps should be. There’s this other idea from biology of the major transitions in evolution, MTEs, that those were the hard steps.
But what we actually found was that none of those are actually hard. The whole idea of hard steps, that there are hard steps, is actually suspect. What’s amazing about this model is it shows how important it is to actually work with people who are in the field. Brandon Carter was a brilliant physicist, the guy who came up with this. And then lots of physicists and astrophysicists like me have used this. But the people who actually study evolution and the planet were never involved.
If you went and talked to an evolutionary biologist or a bio-geophysicist, they’d look at you when you explained this to them and they’d be like, “What? What are you guys doing?” It turns out, none of the details, or none of the conceptual structure of this matches with what the people who actually study the planet and its evolution.
Lex Fridman
Is it mostly about the fact that there’s not really discrete, big steps? Is this a gradual, continual kind of process?
Is it mostly about the fact that there’s not really discrete, big steps? Is this a gradual, continual kind of process?
Adam Frank
Well, there’s two things. The first most important one was that the planet and the biosphere have evolved together.
Well, there’s two things. The first most important one was that the planet and the biosphere have evolved together.
Lex Fridman
Together.
Together.
Adam Frank
That’s something that most bio-geophysicists completely accept. It was the first thing that Carter rejected. He said, “No, that’s probably not possible.” And yet, if he’d only had more discussions with this other community, he would have seen, no, there are actually windows that open up.
That’s something that most bio-geophysicists completely accept. It was the first thing that Carter rejected. He said, “No, that’s probably not possible.” And yet, if he’d only had more discussions with this other community, he would have seen, no, there are actually windows that open up.
Then the next thing is this idea of whether a step is hard or not. Because for hard, what we mean by a hard step is, like I said, every time there’s a generation, every time there’s a next generation born, you’re rolling the dice on whether this mutation will happen. The idea of something being a hard step, there’s two ways in which something might even appear as a hard step and not be. Or actually not be a hard step at all.
One is that you see something that has occurred in evolution that has only happened once. Let’s take the opposite, we see something that’s happened multiple times. Like wings, lots of examples of wings over lots of different evolutionary lineages. Making wings is not a hard step.
There’s certain other things that people say, “No, that’s a hard step.” Oxygen, the oxygen photosynthesis. But they tend to be so long ago that we’ve lost all the information. There could be other things in the fossil record that made this innovation, but they’re just gone now so you can’t tell, so there’s information loss.
The other thing is the idea of pulling up the ladder. That somebody, some species makes the innovation, but then it fills the niche and nobody else can do it again. Yeah, it only happened once but it happened once because basically, the creature was so successful it took over, and there was no space for anybody else to evolve it.
Yeah. The interesting thing about this was seeing how much, once you look at the details of life’s history on Earth, how it really shifts you away from this hard steps model. It shows you that those details, as we were talking about with do you have to know about the planet, do you have to know about plate tectonics? Yeah, you’re going to have to.
Lex Fridman
To be fair to Carter on the first point, it makes it much more complicated if life and the planet are co-evolving. Because it would be nice to consider the planet as a static thing that sets the initial conditions.
To be fair to Carter on the first point, it makes it much more complicated if life and the planet are co-evolving. Because it would be nice to consider the planet as a static thing that sets the initial conditions.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then we can, from an outside perspective, analyze planets based on the initial conditions they create. Then there’s a binary yes or no at will it create life. But if they co-evolve, it’s a really complex dynamical system, the way everything is … Because it’s much more difficult from the perspective of settee. Of looking out there and trying to figure out which ones are actually producing life.
And then we can, from an outside perspective, analyze planets based on the initial conditions they create. Then there’s a binary yes or no at will it create life. But if they co-evolve, it’s a really complex dynamical system, the way everything is … Because it’s much more difficult from the perspective of settee. Of looking out there and trying to figure out which ones are actually producing life.
Adam Frank
But I think we’re at the point now, now there may be other kinds of principles that actually … Co-evolution actually has its own. Not deterministic, you’re done with determinism.
But I think we’re at the point now, now there may be other kinds of principles that actually … Co-evolution actually has its own. Not deterministic, you’re done with determinism.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
But complex systems have patterns.
But complex systems have patterns.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Complex systems have constraints. That’s actually what we’re going to be looking for, are constraints on them.
Complex systems have constraints. That’s actually what we’re going to be looking for, are constraints on them.
Again, nothing against Carter. It was a brilliant idea. But it just goes to show you … I’m a theoretical physicist. Give me a simplified model, with dynamical equations and some initial conditions, I’m very happy. But there’s this great XTC comic, where somebody’s working something out on the board, and this physicist is looking over and saying, ” Oh, oh, I just wrote down an equation for that. I solved your problem. Do you guys even have a journal for this?” The subtitle is Why Everybody Hates Physicists.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Sometimes that approach totally works.
Sometimes that approach totally works.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Sometimes physicists, we can be very good at zooming in on what is important and casting the details aside so you can get to the heart of an issue. That’s very useful sometimes. Other times, it obfuscates. Other times, it clouds over actually what you needed to focus on, especially when it comes to complexity.
Sometimes physicists, we can be very good at zooming in on what is important and casting the details aside so you can get to the heart of an issue. That’s very useful sometimes. Other times, it obfuscates. Other times, it clouds over actually what you needed to focus on, especially when it comes to complexity.
Drake equation
Lex Fridman
Speaking of simplifying everything down to an equation, let’s return back to the question of how many alien civilizations are out there and talk about the Drake Equation.
Speaking of simplifying everything down to an equation, let’s return back to the question of how many alien civilizations are out there and talk about the Drake Equation.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain the Drake Equation?
Can you explain the Drake Equation?
Adam Frank
People have various feelings about the Drake Equation. It can be abused. The story actually is really interesting.
People have various feelings about the Drake Equation. It can be abused. The story actually is really interesting.
Frank Drake in 1960 does the first ever astrobiological experiment. He gets a radio telescope, points it at a couple of stars, and listens for signals. That was the first time anybody had done any experiment about any kind of life in the history of humanity. He does it, and he’s waiting for everybody to make fun of him. Instead, he gets a phone call from the government and says, “Hey, we want you to do a meeting on interstellar communications.” He’s like, “Okay.”
They organized a meeting with just eight people. A young Carl Sagan is going to be there as well. The night before, Drake has to come up with an agenda. How do you come up with an agenda for a meeting on a topic that no one’s ever talked about before? What he does, what’s so brilliant about the Drake Equation, is he breaks the problem of how many civilizations are there out there into a bunch of sub-problems. He breaks it into seven sub-problems. Each one of them is a factor in an equation that, when you multiply them all together, you get the number of civilizations out there that we could communicate with.
The first term is the rate at which stars form. The second term is the fraction of those stars that have plants, F-sub-P. The next term is the number of planets in the habitable zone, the place where we think life could form. The next term after that is the fraction of those planets where actually an abiogenesis event, life forms, occurs. The next one is the fraction of planets on which you start to get intelligence. After that, it’s the fraction of planets where that intelligence goes on to create a civilization. Then finally, the last term, which is the one that we really care about, is the lifetime, have a civilization and how long does it last.
Lex Fridman
When you say we, we humans?
When you say we, we humans?
Adam Frank
We humans, because we’re staring at multiple guns pointing at us.
We humans, because we’re staring at multiple guns pointing at us.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Nuclear war, climate change, AI. How long in general does civilizations last?
Nuclear war, climate change, AI. How long in general does civilizations last?
Now each one of these terms, what was brilliant about what he did was, what he was doing was he was quantifying our ignorance. By breaking the problem up into these seven sub-problems, he gave astronomers something to do. This is always with a new research field, you need a research program or else you just have a bunch of vague questions. You don’t even know really what you’re trying to do.
The star people could figure out how many stars were forming per year. The people who were interested in planets could go out and find techniques to discover planets, et cetera, et cetera.
Lex Fridman
These are their own fields. Essentially by creating this equation, he’s launching new fields.
These are their own fields. Essentially by creating this equation, he’s launching new fields.
Adam Frank
Yeah. That’s exactly … He gave astrobiology, which wasn’t even a term then, a roadmap. “Okay, you guys go do this, you go do that.”
Yeah. That’s exactly … He gave astrobiology, which wasn’t even a term then, a roadmap. “Okay, you guys go do this, you go do that.”
Adam Frank
And then, a roadmap like, “Okay, you guys go do this, you go do that, you go do that.” And it had such far-reaching effect on astrobiology because it did break the problem up in a way that gave useful marching orders for all these different groups. For example, it’s because of the Drake equation in some sense that people who were involved in SETI pushed NASA to develop the technologies for planet hunting. There was this amazing meeting in 1978, two meetings, 1978 and 1979, that were driven in some part by the people who were involved in SETI getting NASA together to say, “Look, okay, look, what’s the roadmap for us to develop technologies to find planets?”
And then, a roadmap like, “Okay, you guys go do this, you go do that, you go do that.” And it had such far-reaching effect on astrobiology because it did break the problem up in a way that gave useful marching orders for all these different groups. For example, it’s because of the Drake equation in some sense that people who were involved in SETI pushed NASA to develop the technologies for planet hunting. There was this amazing meeting in 1978, two meetings, 1978 and 1979, that were driven in some part by the people who were involved in SETI getting NASA together to say, “Look, okay, look, what’s the roadmap for us to develop technologies to find planets?”
So, the Drake equation is absolutely foundational for astrobiology, but we should remember that it’s not a law of nature. It’s not equal to MC squared. And so, you can see it being abused in some sense. Yeah, it’s generated a trillion papers. Some of those papers are good, I’ve written some of those. And some of those papers are bad, I’m not sure where my paper fits in on those. I’m saying one should be careful about what you’re using it for. But in terms of understanding the problem that astrobiology faces, this really broke it up in a useful way.
Exoplanets
Lex Fridman
We could talk about each one of these, but let’s just look at exoplanets.
We could talk about each one of these, but let’s just look at exoplanets.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, that’s a really interesting one. I think when you look back hundreds of years from now, was it in the 90s when they first detected the first-
So, that’s a really interesting one. I think when you look back hundreds of years from now, was it in the 90s when they first detected the first-
Adam Frank
Yeah. ’92 and ’95. ’95 to me was really, that was the discovery of the first planet orbiting a sun-like star. To me, that was the water, the dam being broken.
Yeah. ’92 and ’95. ’95 to me was really, that was the discovery of the first planet orbiting a sun-like star. To me, that was the water, the dam being broken.
Lex Fridman
I think that’s one of the greatest discoveries in the history of science.
I think that’s one of the greatest discoveries in the history of science.
Adam Frank
I agree. I agree.
I agree. I agree.
Lex Fridman
Right now, I guess nobody’s celebrating it too much because you don’t know what it really means. But I think once we almost certainly will find life out there, it will obviously allow us to generalize across the entire galaxy of the entire universe. So, if you can find life on a planet, even in the solar system, you can now start generalizing across the entire universe.
Right now, I guess nobody’s celebrating it too much because you don’t know what it really means. But I think once we almost certainly will find life out there, it will obviously allow us to generalize across the entire galaxy of the entire universe. So, if you can find life on a planet, even in the solar system, you can now start generalizing across the entire universe.
Adam Frank
You can, all you need is one. Right now, our understanding of life, we have one example. We have N equals one example of life. So, that means we could be an accident. It could be that we’re the only place in the entire universe where this weird thing called life has occurred. Get one more example and now you’re done, because if you have one more example, now you don’t have to find all the other examples. You just know that it’s happened more than once, and now you are from a Bayesian perspective, you can start thinking like, “Yeah. Life is not something that’s hard to make.”
You can, all you need is one. Right now, our understanding of life, we have one example. We have N equals one example of life. So, that means we could be an accident. It could be that we’re the only place in the entire universe where this weird thing called life has occurred. Get one more example and now you’re done, because if you have one more example, now you don’t have to find all the other examples. You just know that it’s happened more than once, and now you are from a Bayesian perspective, you can start thinking like, “Yeah. Life is not something that’s hard to make.”
Lex Fridman
Well, let me get your sense of estimates for the Drake equation. You’ve also written a paper expanding on the Drake equation, but what do you think is the answer?
Well, let me get your sense of estimates for the Drake equation. You’ve also written a paper expanding on the Drake equation, but what do you think is the answer?
Adam Frank
So, there was this paper we wrote, Woody Sullivan and I in 2016, where we said, “Look, we have all this exoplanet data now.” So, the thing that exoplanet science and the exoplanet census I was talking about before have nailed is F sub P, the fraction of stars that have planets, it’s one. Every fricking star that you see in the sky hosts a family of worlds. I mean, it’s mind-boggling because those are all places, right? They’re either gas giants, probably with moons, so the moons are places you can stand and look out. Or they’re like terrestrial worlds where even if there’s not life, there’s still snow falling and there’s oceans washing up on shorelines.
So, there was this paper we wrote, Woody Sullivan and I in 2016, where we said, “Look, we have all this exoplanet data now.” So, the thing that exoplanet science and the exoplanet census I was talking about before have nailed is F sub P, the fraction of stars that have planets, it’s one. Every fricking star that you see in the sky hosts a family of worlds. I mean, it’s mind-boggling because those are all places, right? They’re either gas giants, probably with moons, so the moons are places you can stand and look out. Or they’re like terrestrial worlds where even if there’s not life, there’s still snow falling and there’s oceans washing up on shorelines.
It’s incredible to think how many places and stories there are out there. So, the first term was F sub P, which is how many stars have planets. The next term is how many planets are in the habitable zone on average, and it turns out to be one over five, so around 0.2. So, that means you just count five of them go out at night and go one, two, three, four, five. One of them has an Earth-like planet in the habitable zone, like, whoa.
Lex Fridman
So, what defines a habitable zone?
So, what defines a habitable zone?
Habitable zones
Adam Frank
Habitable zone is an idea that was developed in the 1958 by the Chinese American astronomer, Xu Sheng, and it was a brilliant idea. It said, “Look, I can do the simple calculation. If I take a planet and just stick it at some distance from a star of what’s the temperature of the planet? What’s the temperature of the surface?” So now, give it a standard Earth-like atmosphere and ask, “Could there be liquid water on the surface?” We believe that liquid water is really important for life. There could be other things that’s happening fine, but if you were to start off trying to make life, you’d probably choose water as your solvent for it.
Habitable zone is an idea that was developed in the 1958 by the Chinese American astronomer, Xu Sheng, and it was a brilliant idea. It said, “Look, I can do the simple calculation. If I take a planet and just stick it at some distance from a star of what’s the temperature of the planet? What’s the temperature of the surface?” So now, give it a standard Earth-like atmosphere and ask, “Could there be liquid water on the surface?” We believe that liquid water is really important for life. There could be other things that’s happening fine, but if you were to start off trying to make life, you’d probably choose water as your solvent for it.
So basically, the habitable zone is the band of orbits around a star where you can have liquid water on the surface. You could take a glass of water, pour it on the surface, and it would just pull up. It wouldn’t freeze immediately, which would happen if your planet is too far out and it wouldn’t just boil away if your planet’s too close in. So, that’s the formal definition of the habitable zone. So, it’s a nice strict definition, there’s probably way more going on than that, but this is a place to start.
Lex Fridman
Well, we should say it’s a place to start, I do think it’s too strict of a constraint.
Well, we should say it’s a place to start, I do think it’s too strict of a constraint.
Adam Frank
I would agree.
I would agree.
Lex Fridman
We’re talking about temperature where water can be on the surface. There’s so many other ways to get the aforementioned turmoil where the temperature varies, whether it’s volcanic, so interaction of volcanoes and ice and all of this on the moons of planets that are much farther away, all this kind of stuff.
We’re talking about temperature where water can be on the surface. There’s so many other ways to get the aforementioned turmoil where the temperature varies, whether it’s volcanic, so interaction of volcanoes and ice and all of this on the moons of planets that are much farther away, all this kind of stuff.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Well, for example, we know in our own solar system we have, say Europa, the moon of Jupiter, which has got a hundred-mile-deep ocean under 10 miles of ice. That’s not in the habitable zone, that is outside the habitable zone, and that may be the best place. It’s got more water than Earth does, all of its oceans. It’s twice as much water on Europa than there is on Earth. So, that may be a really great for life to form, and it’s outside the habitable zone. So, the habitable zone is a good place to start and it helps us. And there’s reasons why you do want to focus on the habitable zone, because like Europa, I won’t be able to see from across telescopic distances across light years.
Yeah. Well, for example, we know in our own solar system we have, say Europa, the moon of Jupiter, which has got a hundred-mile-deep ocean under 10 miles of ice. That’s not in the habitable zone, that is outside the habitable zone, and that may be the best place. It’s got more water than Earth does, all of its oceans. It’s twice as much water on Europa than there is on Earth. So, that may be a really great for life to form, and it’s outside the habitable zone. So, the habitable zone is a good place to start and it helps us. And there’s reasons why you do want to focus on the habitable zone, because like Europa, I won’t be able to see from across telescopic distances across light years.
I wouldn’t be able to see life on Europa because it’s under 10 miles of ice. So, with the important thing about planets in the habitable zone is that we’re thinking they have atmospheres. Atmospheres are the things we can characterize across 10, 50 light years and we can see biosignatures as we’re going to talk about. So, there is a reason why the habitable zone becomes important for the detection of extra solar life.
Lex Fridman
But for me, when I look up at the stars, it’s very likely that there’s a habitable planet or moon in each of the stars, habitable defined broadly.
But for me, when I look up at the stars, it’s very likely that there’s a habitable planet or moon in each of the stars, habitable defined broadly.
Adam Frank
Yeah, I think that’s not unreasonable to say, especially since the formal definition, you get one in five, right? One in five is a lot, there’s a lot of stars in the sky. So yeah, saying that in general, when I look at a star, there’s a pretty good chance that there’s something habitable orbiting it. It is not a unreasonable scientific claim.
Yeah, I think that’s not unreasonable to say, especially since the formal definition, you get one in five, right? One in five is a lot, there’s a lot of stars in the sky. So yeah, saying that in general, when I look at a star, there’s a pretty good chance that there’s something habitable orbiting it. It is not a unreasonable scientific claim.
Fermi Paradox
Lex Fridman
To me, it seems like there should be alien civilizations everywhere. Why the Fermi paradox? Why haven’t we seen them?
To me, it seems like there should be alien civilizations everywhere. Why the Fermi paradox? Why haven’t we seen them?
Adam Frank
Okay, the Fermi paradox. I love talking about the Fermi paradox because there is no Fermi paradox. Dun dun, dun dun. Yeah, so the Fermi paradox, let’s talk a about the Fermi paradox and the history of it. So, Enrico Fermi, it’s 1950, he’s walking with his friends at Los Alamos nuclear weapons lab to the Cantina, and there had been this cartoon in the New Yorker, they all read the New Yorker. And the cartoon was trying to explain why there had been this rash of garbage cans being disappearing in New York. And this cartoon said, “Oh, it’s UFOs.” Because it’s 1950, the first big UFO craze happened in ’47.
Okay, the Fermi paradox. I love talking about the Fermi paradox because there is no Fermi paradox. Dun dun, dun dun. Yeah, so the Fermi paradox, let’s talk a about the Fermi paradox and the history of it. So, Enrico Fermi, it’s 1950, he’s walking with his friends at Los Alamos nuclear weapons lab to the Cantina, and there had been this cartoon in the New Yorker, they all read the New Yorker. And the cartoon was trying to explain why there had been this rash of garbage cans being disappearing in New York. And this cartoon said, “Oh, it’s UFOs.” Because it’s 1950, the first big UFO craze happened in ’47.
So, they were laughing about this as they’re walking, and they started being physicists, started talking about interstellar travel, interstellar propulsion. Conversation goes on for a while, conversation turns to something else, they’ve gone to other things. About 40 minutes later, over lunch, Fermi blurts out, “Well, where is everybody?” Typical Fermi sort of thing. He’d done the calculation in his head and he suddenly realized that, look, if intelligence is common, that even traveling at sub lights speeds a civilization could cross, hop from one star system to the other and spread it out across the entire galaxy in a few hundred thousand years.
And he realized this, and so he was like, “Why aren’t they here now?” And that was the beginning of the Fermi paradox. It actually got picked up as a formal thing in 1975 in a paper by Hart where he actually went through this calculation and showed and said, “Well, there’s nobody here now, therefore, there’s nobody anywhere.” Okay, so that is what we will call the direct Fermi paradox, why aren’t they here now? But something happened after SETI began, where people started to, there was this idea of the great silence. People got this idea in their head that like, “Oh, we’ve been looking for decades now for signals of extra-terrestrial intelligence that we haven’t found any. Therefore, there’s nothing out there.
So, we’ll call that the indirect Fermi paradox and there absolutely is no indirect Fermi paradox for the most mundane of reasons, which is money. There’s never been any money to look. SETI was always done by researchers who were scabbing some time, some extra time from their other projects to look a little bit at the sky where the telescope, telescopes are expensive. So, Jason Wright, one of my collaborators, he and his students did a study where they looked at the entire search space for SETI, and imagine that’s an ocean. All the different stars you have to look at, the radio frequencies you have to look at, how when you look, how often you look.
Then they summed up all the SETI searches that had ever been done, they went through the literature. And what they found was if that search space, if the sky is an ocean and you’re looking for fish, how much of the ocean have we looked at, and it turns out to be a hot tub. That’s how much of the ocean that we’ve looked up. We’ve dragged a hot tub’s worth of ocean water up and there was no fish in it, and so now are we going to say, “Well, there’s no fish in the ocean.” So, there is absolutely positively no indirect Fermi paradox, we just haven’t looked, but we’re starting to look. So finally, we’re starting to look, that’s what’s exciting.
The direct Fermi paradox, there are so many ways out of that. There’s a book called 77 Solutions to the Fermi Paradox that you can pick your favorite one. It just doesn’t carry a lot of weight because there’s so many ways around it. We did an actual simulation, my group, Jonathan Carroll, one of my collaborators, we actually simulated the galaxy and we simulated probes moving at sub light speed from one star to the other, gathering resources heading to the next one. And so, we could actually track the expansion wave across the galaxy, have one IA biogenesis event, and then watch the whole galaxy get colonized or settled. And it is absolutely true that wave crosses, Hart was right, Fermi was right, that wave crosses very quickly. But civilizations don’t last forever, so one question is when did they visit? When did they come to Earth? So, if you give civilizations a finite lifetime, let them last 10,000, 100,000 years, what you find is you now have a steady state. Civilizations are dying, they’re coming back, they’re traveling between the stars. What you find then is you can have big holes opened up. You can have regions of space where there is nobody for millions of years. And so, if we’re living in one of those bubbles right now, then maybe we revisited but we revisited 100 million years ago.
And there was a paper that Gavin Schmidt and I did that showed that if there was a civilization, whether it was dinosaurs or aliens that was here a 100 million years ago, there’s no way to tell, there’s no record left over, the fossil record is too sparse. The only way maybe you could tell is by looking at the isotopic strata to see if there was anything reminiscent of an industrial civilization. But the idea that you’d be able to find iPhones or toppled buildings after 100 million years is there’s no way.
Lex Fridman
So, if there was an alien camp here, an alien village, a small civilization, maybe even large civilizations?
So, if there was an alien camp here, an alien village, a small civilization, maybe even large civilizations?
Adam Frank
Even a large civilization, even if it was-
Even a large civilization, even if it was-
Lex Fridman
100 million years ago?
100 million years ago?
Adam Frank
And it lasted 10,000 years, fossil record’s not going to have it. Yeah, the fossil record is too sparse, most things don’t fossilize.
And it lasted 10,000 years, fossil record’s not going to have it. Yeah, the fossil record is too sparse, most things don’t fossilize.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
And 10,000 years is a blink in the eye of geological time. So, Gavin called this the Silurian Hypothesis after the Doctor who episode with the lizard creatures, the Silurians. And so, that paper got a lot of press, but it was an important idea, and this was really Gavin’s, I was just helping with the astrobiology. That to recognize that like, “Yeah, we could have been visited a long time ago there just would be no record.” Yeah, it’s mind-blowing.
And 10,000 years is a blink in the eye of geological time. So, Gavin called this the Silurian Hypothesis after the Doctor who episode with the lizard creatures, the Silurians. And so, that paper got a lot of press, but it was an important idea, and this was really Gavin’s, I was just helping with the astrobiology. That to recognize that like, “Yeah, we could have been visited a long time ago there just would be no record.” Yeah, it’s mind-blowing.
Lex Fridman
It’s really mind-blowing.
It’s really mind-blowing.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And it’s also a good reminder that intelligent species have been here for a very short amount of time.
And it’s also a good reminder that intelligent species have been here for a very short amount of time.
Adam Frank
Very short amount of time. Yeah. This is not to say that there was, so I was on Joe Rogan for exactly this paper, and I had to always emphasize, we’re not saying there was a Silurian, but we’re just saying that if there was, that’s why I love Gavin’s question. Gavin’s question was just like, “How could you tell”? It was a very beautifully scientific question. That’s what we were really showing is that unless you did a very specific kind of search, which nobody’s done so far, there’s not an obvious way to tell that there could have been civilizations here earlier on.
Very short amount of time. Yeah. This is not to say that there was, so I was on Joe Rogan for exactly this paper, and I had to always emphasize, we’re not saying there was a Silurian, but we’re just saying that if there was, that’s why I love Gavin’s question. Gavin’s question was just like, “How could you tell”? It was a very beautifully scientific question. That’s what we were really showing is that unless you did a very specific kind of search, which nobody’s done so far, there’s not an obvious way to tell that there could have been civilizations here earlier on.
Lex Fridman
I’ve actually been reading a lot about ancient civilizations, and it just makes me sad how much of the wisdom of that time is lost and how much guessing is going on, whether it’s in South America, what happened in the jungle.
I’ve actually been reading a lot about ancient civilizations, and it just makes me sad how much of the wisdom of that time is lost and how much guessing is going on, whether it’s in South America, what happened in the jungle.
Adam Frank
Like the Amazon, that was the conquistadors came and wiped everybody out, and especially just even the plague may have decimated. So yeah, how much of that civilization.
Like the Amazon, that was the conquistadors came and wiped everybody out, and especially just even the plague may have decimated. So yeah, how much of that civilization.
Lex Fridman
And there’s a lot of theories, and because of archaeology only looks at cities, they don’t really know the origins of humans.
And there’s a lot of theories, and because of archaeology only looks at cities, they don’t really know the origins of humans.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And there’s a lot of really interesting theories, and there are of course controversial and there’s a lot of controversial people in every discipline, but archaeology is a fascinating one because we know so little. They’re basically storytellers, you’re assembling the picture from just very few puzzle pieces, and it’s fascinating. It’s humbling and it’s sad that there could be entire civilizations, ancient civilizations that are either almost entirely or entirely lost.
And there’s a lot of really interesting theories, and there are of course controversial and there’s a lot of controversial people in every discipline, but archaeology is a fascinating one because we know so little. They’re basically storytellers, you’re assembling the picture from just very few puzzle pieces, and it’s fascinating. It’s humbling and it’s sad that there could be entire civilizations, ancient civilizations that are either almost entirely or entirely lost.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Well, the indigenous peoples of North America, there could have been millions and millions. We get this idea that like, oh, the Europeans came and it was empty. But it may have only been empty because the plague gets swept up from what happened in Mesoamerica, and they didn’t really build cities. They didn’t build wooden or stone cities, they built wooden cities.
Yeah. Well, the indigenous peoples of North America, there could have been millions and millions. We get this idea that like, oh, the Europeans came and it was empty. But it may have only been empty because the plague gets swept up from what happened in Mesoamerica, and they didn’t really build cities. They didn’t build wooden or stone cities, they built wooden cities.
Lex Fridman
Everybody seems to be building pyramids and they’re really damn good at it. I don’t know-
Everybody seems to be building pyramids and they’re really damn good at it. I don’t know-
Adam Frank
What it is up with a pyramid. Why does that apply? What archetype in our brain is that?
What it is up with a pyramid. Why does that apply? What archetype in our brain is that?
Lex Fridman
And it is also really interesting, speaking of archetypes, is that independent civilizations formed and they had a lot of similar dynamics like human nature when it builds up hierarchies in a certain way, it builds up myths and religions in a certain way, it builds pyramids in a certain way. It goes to war, all this kind of stuff independently, which is fascinating.
And it is also really interesting, speaking of archetypes, is that independent civilizations formed and they had a lot of similar dynamics like human nature when it builds up hierarchies in a certain way, it builds up myths and religions in a certain way, it builds pyramids in a certain way. It goes to war, all this kind of stuff independently, which is fascinating.
Adam Frank
Santa Fe Institute, the stuff the Santa Fe Institute does on these as complex systems, the origin of hierarchies and such. Very cool.
Santa Fe Institute, the stuff the Santa Fe Institute does on these as complex systems, the origin of hierarchies and such. Very cool.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, Santa Fe folks, complexity in general is really cool.
Yeah, Santa Fe folks, complexity in general is really cool.
Adam Frank
Really cool.
Really cool.
Alien civilizations
Lex Fridman
What phenomena emerge when a bunch of small things get together and interact? Going back to this paper, a new empirical constraint on the prevalence of technological species in the universe. This paper that expands on the Drake equation, what are some interesting things in this paper?
What phenomena emerge when a bunch of small things get together and interact? Going back to this paper, a new empirical constraint on the prevalence of technological species in the universe. This paper that expands on the Drake equation, what are some interesting things in this paper?
Adam Frank
Well, so the main thing we were trying to do with this paper is say, “Look, we have all of this exoplanet data.” It’s got to be good for something, especially since two of the terms that have been nailed down empirically are two terms in the Drake equation. So, F sub P, that’s the second term, fraction of stars that have planets, and then N sub E, the average number of planets in the habitable zone. Those are the second and third term in the Drake equation. So, what that means is all the astronomical terms have been nailed. And so, we said, “Okay, how do we use this to do something with the Drake equation?”
Well, so the main thing we were trying to do with this paper is say, “Look, we have all of this exoplanet data.” It’s got to be good for something, especially since two of the terms that have been nailed down empirically are two terms in the Drake equation. So, F sub P, that’s the second term, fraction of stars that have planets, and then N sub E, the average number of planets in the habitable zone. Those are the second and third term in the Drake equation. So, what that means is all the astronomical terms have been nailed. And so, we said, “Okay, how do we use this to do something with the Drake equation?”
And so, we realized is, “Well, okay, we got to get rid of time.” The lifetime thing, we can’t say anything about that, but if we don’t ask how long do they last but instead ask, “What’s the probability that there have been any civilizations at all?” No matter how long they lasted, I’m not asking whether they exist now or not, I’m just asking in general about probabilities to make a technological civilization anywhere and at any time in the history of the universe and that we were able to constrain. And so, what we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. And what that means is that those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run.
And the only way that we’re this whole process from a biogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if every one of those experiments failed. So therefore, you could put a probability, we called it the pessimism line. We don’t really know what nature sets for the probability of making intelligent civilizations, but we could set a limit using this. We could say, “Look, if the probability per habitable zone planet is less than 10 to the minus 22, 1 in 10 billion trillion, then yeah, we’re alone.” If it’s anywhere larger than that, then we’re not the first, it’s happened somewhere else. And to me, that was mind-blowing. It doesn’t tell me there’s anybody nearby, the galaxy could be sterile.
It just told me that unless nature’s really has some bias against civilizations, we’re not the first time this has happened. This has happened elsewhere over the course of cosmic history.
Lex Fridman
10 billion trillion experiments.
10 billion trillion experiments.
Adam Frank
Yeah, that’s a lot of experiments.
Yeah, that’s a lot of experiments.
Lex Fridman
That’s a lot.
That’s a lot.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
1,000 is a lot.
1,000 is a lot.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
100 is a lot.
100 is a lot.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
If we, normal humans saw 100 experiments, and we knew that at least one time there was a successful human civilization built we would say for sure, in 100 you’ll get another one.
If we, normal humans saw 100 experiments, and we knew that at least one time there was a successful human civilization built we would say for sure, in 100 you’ll get another one.
Adam Frank
Yeah. So, that’s why these kinds of arguments you have to be careful of what they can do. But I felt like what this paper showed was that the burden of proof is now on the pessimists. So, that’s why we called it the pessimism line. Throughout history, there’s been alien pessimists and alien optimists, and they’ve been yelling at each other, that’s all they had to go with. And with Giordano Bruno in 1600, they burned the guy at the stake for being an alien optimist. But nobody really knew what pessimism or optimism meant. We thought this was like the plank length, this was the plank length of astrobiology.
Yeah. So, that’s why these kinds of arguments you have to be careful of what they can do. But I felt like what this paper showed was that the burden of proof is now on the pessimists. So, that’s why we called it the pessimism line. Throughout history, there’s been alien pessimists and alien optimists, and they’ve been yelling at each other, that’s all they had to go with. And with Giordano Bruno in 1600, they burned the guy at the stake for being an alien optimist. But nobody really knew what pessimism or optimism meant. We thought this was like the plank length, this was the plank length of astrobiology.
Gave you an actual number that if you could somehow calculate what the probability of forming a technological civilization was, this thing shows you where the limit is. As long as you’re above 10 to the minus 22, then you actually absolutely, it has occurred in the history. Other civilizations have occurred in the history of the universe.
Lex Fridman
So, to me, at least, the big question is FE, which is basically a biogenesis. How hard is it for life to originate in a planet? Because all the other ones seem very likely, everything seems very likely. The only open question to me is how hard is it for life to originate?
So, to me, at least, the big question is FE, which is basically a biogenesis. How hard is it for life to originate in a planet? Because all the other ones seem very likely, everything seems very likely. The only open question to me is how hard is it for life to originate?
Adam Frank
There’s lots of ways to, again, we don’t know unless we look, and you had Sarah Walker around not too long ago, she’s very interested in origins of life. So, lots of people are working on this. But I think it’s hard looking at the history of the Earth, and again, you can do Bayesian arguments on this. But yeah, forming life I don’t think is hard. Getting basic biology started, I don’t think is hard. It’s still wild, it’s an amazing process that actually I think requires some deep rethinking about how we conceptualize what life is and what life isn’t. That’s one of the things I like about Sarah’s work, we’re pursuing on a different level about life as the only system that uses information. But still, regardless of all those kinds of details, life is probably easy to make. That’s my gut feeling.
There’s lots of ways to, again, we don’t know unless we look, and you had Sarah Walker around not too long ago, she’s very interested in origins of life. So, lots of people are working on this. But I think it’s hard looking at the history of the Earth, and again, you can do Bayesian arguments on this. But yeah, forming life I don’t think is hard. Getting basic biology started, I don’t think is hard. It’s still wild, it’s an amazing process that actually I think requires some deep rethinking about how we conceptualize what life is and what life isn’t. That’s one of the things I like about Sarah’s work, we’re pursuing on a different level about life as the only system that uses information. But still, regardless of all those kinds of details, life is probably easy to make. That’s my gut feeling.
Lex Fridman
Day by day, this changes for me, but I just see that once you create bacteria, it is off to the races. You’re going to get complex life as long as you have enough time. That boring billion, but I just can’t imagine a habitable planet not having a couple of billion to spare.
Day by day, this changes for me, but I just see that once you create bacteria, it is off to the races. You’re going to get complex life as long as you have enough time. That boring billion, but I just can’t imagine a habitable planet not having a couple of billion to spare.
Adam Frank
Yeah, a couple billion years to spare. There is a mystery there about why did it take so long with the Cambrian explosion, but that may be again, about these windows. That it couldn’t happen until the window, the planet and the life had evolved together enough that they together opened the window for the next step. Intelligent life and how long intelligent, technological civilizations, I think there’s a big question about how long those last. And I’m hopeful, but in terms of just, I think life is absolutely going to be common, pretty common in the universe.
Yeah, a couple billion years to spare. There is a mystery there about why did it take so long with the Cambrian explosion, but that may be again, about these windows. That it couldn’t happen until the window, the planet and the life had evolved together enough that they together opened the window for the next step. Intelligent life and how long intelligent, technological civilizations, I think there’s a big question about how long those last. And I’m hopeful, but in terms of just, I think life is absolutely going to be common, pretty common in the universe.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I think, again, if I were to bet everything, even in advanced civilizations are common. So, to me then the only explanation is the L. Our galaxy is a graveyard of civilizations.
Yeah. I think, again, if I were to bet everything, even in advanced civilizations are common. So, to me then the only explanation is the L. Our galaxy is a graveyard of civilizations.
Adam Frank
Yeah. You think about it, we’ve only been around, truly when we think about in Drake’s definition, you had to have radio telescopes, that’s been 100 years. And if we got another 10,000, 100,000 years of history, for us, it’d be pretty amazing. But that still, that wouldn’t be long enough to really pop up the number of civilizations in the galaxy. So, you really need it to be hundreds of millions of years. And that raises a question, which I am very interested in, which is how do we even talk about, I call it the billion-year civilization. How do we even begin to hypothesize or think about in any kind of systematic way, what happens to a technological civilization across hundreds of millions to a billion years?
Yeah. You think about it, we’ve only been around, truly when we think about in Drake’s definition, you had to have radio telescopes, that’s been 100 years. And if we got another 10,000, 100,000 years of history, for us, it’d be pretty amazing. But that still, that wouldn’t be long enough to really pop up the number of civilizations in the galaxy. So, you really need it to be hundreds of millions of years. And that raises a question, which I am very interested in, which is how do we even talk about, I call it the billion-year civilization. How do we even begin to hypothesize or think about in any kind of systematic way, what happens to a technological civilization across hundreds of millions to a billion years?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. How do you even simulate the trajectories as civilizations can take across that kind of timescale?
Yeah. How do you even simulate the trajectories as civilizations can take across that kind of timescale?
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
When all the data we have is just for the 10,000 years or so, 20,000 years that humans have been building civilizations.
When all the data we have is just for the 10,000 years or so, 20,000 years that humans have been building civilizations.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And I don’t know what you put it at, but maybe 100 years that we’ve been technological?
And I don’t know what you put it at, but maybe 100 years that we’ve been technological?
Adam Frank
And we’re ready to blow ourselves to bits or drive ourselves off the planet. Yeah, no, it’s really interesting. But there’s got to be a way that I think that’s really a frontier. So, you had David Kipping on not too long ago, and David and I did a paper and Caleb Scharf, David really drove this. Where it was a Bayesian calculation to ask the question, “If you were to find a detection, if you were to find a signal or a techno signature, would that come from a civilization that was younger your age or older?” And you could see, this is not hard to do, but it was great. The formalism, the formalism was hard. It’s intuitive, but the formalism was hard to show that, yeah, they’re older, probably much older.
And we’re ready to blow ourselves to bits or drive ourselves off the planet. Yeah, no, it’s really interesting. But there’s got to be a way that I think that’s really a frontier. So, you had David Kipping on not too long ago, and David and I did a paper and Caleb Scharf, David really drove this. Where it was a Bayesian calculation to ask the question, “If you were to find a detection, if you were to find a signal or a techno signature, would that come from a civilization that was younger your age or older?” And you could see, this is not hard to do, but it was great. The formalism, the formalism was hard. It’s intuitive, but the formalism was hard to show that, yeah, they’re older, probably much older.
So, that means you really do need to think about like, “Okay, how do billion-year civilizations manifest themselves? What signatures will they leave?” And yeah, what’s so cool about it, it’s so much fun because you have to imagine the unimaginable. Obviously biological evolution can happen on those kinds of timescales, so you wouldn’t even really be the same thing you started out as. But social forms, what kind of social forms can you imagine that would be continuous over that? Or maybe they wouldn’t be continuous, should get they drop out, they destroy themselves, and then they come back. So, maybe it’s a punctuated evolution, but this is the fun part we have to work this out.
Lex Fridman
Well, one way to approach that question is what are the different ways to achieve homeostasis is you get greater and greater technological innovation. So, if you expand out into the universe and you have up to Kardashev scale, what are the ways you can avoid destroying yourself? Just achieve stability while still growing. That’s an interesting question, I think it’s probably simulatable?
Well, one way to approach that question is what are the different ways to achieve homeostasis is you get greater and greater technological innovation. So, if you expand out into the universe and you have up to Kardashev scale, what are the ways you can avoid destroying yourself? Just achieve stability while still growing. That’s an interesting question, I think it’s probably simulatable?
Adam Frank
Could be, agent-based modeling you could do it with. So, our group has used agent-based modeling to do something like the Fermi paradox that was agent-based modeling. But you can also do this. People at Santa Fe have done this, other groups have done this to do use agent-based modeling to track the formation of hierarchies, the formation of stable hierarchies. So, I think it’s actually very doable, but understanding the assumptions and principles that are going into it and what you can extract from those, that is what is the frontier.
Could be, agent-based modeling you could do it with. So, our group has used agent-based modeling to do something like the Fermi paradox that was agent-based modeling. But you can also do this. People at Santa Fe have done this, other groups have done this to do use agent-based modeling to track the formation of hierarchies, the formation of stable hierarchies. So, I think it’s actually very doable, but understanding the assumptions and principles that are going into it and what you can extract from those, that is what is the frontier.
Colonizing Mars
Lex Fridman
Do you think if humans colonize Mars, the dynamic between the civilization on Earth and Mars will be fundamentally different than the dynamic between individual nations on Earth right now? That’s a thing to load into the agent-based simulation we’re talking about.
Do you think if humans colonize Mars, the dynamic between the civilization on Earth and Mars will be fundamentally different than the dynamic between individual nations on Earth right now? That’s a thing to load into the agent-based simulation we’re talking about.
Adam Frank
Yeah. If we settle it, Mars will very quickly want to become its own nation.
Yeah. If we settle it, Mars will very quickly want to become its own nation.
Lex Fridman
Well, no, there’s already going to be nations on Mars that’s guaranteed-
Well, no, there’s already going to be nations on Mars that’s guaranteed-
Adam Frank
Yeah. And they’re there on-
Yeah. And they’re there on-
Lex Fridman
2 million people. The moment you have 1 million people, there’s going to be two tribes.
2 million people. The moment you have 1 million people, there’s going to be two tribes.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And then they’re going to start fighting.
And then they’re going to start fighting.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And the question is, interplanetary fighting. How quickly does that happen and does it have a different nature to it because of the distances?
And the question is, interplanetary fighting. How quickly does that happen and does it have a different nature to it because of the distances?
Adam Frank
Are you a fan of The Expanse? Have you watched The Expanse? Great show, I highly recommend to everybody. It’s based on a series of books that are excellent. It’s on Prime, six seasons, and it’s basically about the settled solar system. It takes place about 300 years from now, and the entire solar system is settled, and it is the best show about interplanetary politics. The first season, actually, the journal, what was it? Foreign Affairs said the best show on TV about politics it takes place is interplanetary. So yeah, I think human beings being human beings, yes, there will be warfare and there will be conflict.
Are you a fan of The Expanse? Have you watched The Expanse? Great show, I highly recommend to everybody. It’s based on a series of books that are excellent. It’s on Prime, six seasons, and it’s basically about the settled solar system. It takes place about 300 years from now, and the entire solar system is settled, and it is the best show about interplanetary politics. The first season, actually, the journal, what was it? Foreign Affairs said the best show on TV about politics it takes place is interplanetary. So yeah, I think human beings being human beings, yes, there will be warfare and there will be conflict.
And I don’t think it’ll be necessarily all that different because really I think within a few hundred years we will have lots of people in the solar system, and it doesn’t even have to be on Mars. We did a paper where we look based on, because I always wanted to know about whether an idea in The Expanse was really possible. In The Expanse, the asteroid belt, what they’ve done is they have colonized the asteroid belt by hollowing out the asteroids and spinning them up and living on the inside because they have the Coriolis force. And I thought like, “Wow, what a cool idea.”
And when I ran the blog for NPR, actually talked to the guys and said, “Did you guys calculate this to see whether it’s possible?” Sadly, it’s not possible. The rock is just not strong enough that if you tried to spin it up to the speeds you need to get one third gravity, which is what I think the minimum you need for human beings. The rock would just fall apart, it would break. But we came up with another idea, which was that if you could take small asteroids, put a giant bag around them, a nanofiber bag and spin those up, it would inflate the bag. And then even a small couple of kilometer wide asteroid would expand out to, you could get a Manhattan’s worth of material inside.
So, forget about even colonizing Mars space stations or space habitats with millions of people in them. So anyway, the point is that I think within a few hundred years, it is not unimaginable that there will be millions, if not billions of people living in the solar system.
Lex Fridman
You think most of them will be in space habitats versus on Mars on the planetary surface?
You think most of them will be in space habitats versus on Mars on the planetary surface?
Adam Frank
It’s a lot easier on some level. It depends on how with nanofabrication and such, but getting down to gravity well is hard. So, there’s a certain way in which it’s a lot easier to build real estate out of the asteroids, but we’ll probably do both. I think what’ll happen is the next, should we make it through climate change and nuclear war and all the other, and AI? The next 1,000 years of human history is the solar system. And so, I think we’ll settle every nook and cranny we possibly can, and what I love about, what’s hopeful about it is this idea you’re going to have all of these pockets, and I’m sure there’s going to be a Mormon space habitat.
It’s a lot easier on some level. It depends on how with nanofabrication and such, but getting down to gravity well is hard. So, there’s a certain way in which it’s a lot easier to build real estate out of the asteroids, but we’ll probably do both. I think what’ll happen is the next, should we make it through climate change and nuclear war and all the other, and AI? The next 1,000 years of human history is the solar system. And so, I think we’ll settle every nook and cranny we possibly can, and what I love about, what’s hopeful about it is this idea you’re going to have all of these pockets, and I’m sure there’s going to be a Mormon space habitat.
Whatever you want, a libertarian space habitat, everybody’s going to be able to create, there’ll be lots of experiments in human flourishing. And those kinds of experiments will be really useful for us to figure out better ways for us to interact and have maximum flourishing, maximum wellness, maximum democracy, maximum freedom.
Lex Fridman
Do you think that’s a good backup solution to go out into space, so to avoid the possibility of humans destroying themselves completely here on Earth?
Do you think that’s a good backup solution to go out into space, so to avoid the possibility of humans destroying themselves completely here on Earth?
Adam Frank
Well, I think I want to be always careful with that, because like I said, it’s centuries that we’re talking about. So, the problem with climate change, and same thing with nuclear war, it’s breathing down our necks now. So, trying to establish a base on Mars it’s going to be so hard that it is not even going to be close to being self-sufficient for a couple a century at least. So, it’s not like a backup plan now, we have to solve the problem of climate change, we have to deal with that. There’s still enough nuclear weapons to really do horrific things to the planet for human beings.
Well, I think I want to be always careful with that, because like I said, it’s centuries that we’re talking about. So, the problem with climate change, and same thing with nuclear war, it’s breathing down our necks now. So, trying to establish a base on Mars it’s going to be so hard that it is not even going to be close to being self-sufficient for a couple a century at least. So, it’s not like a backup plan now, we have to solve the problem of climate change, we have to deal with that. There’s still enough nuclear weapons to really do horrific things to the planet for human beings.
So, I don’t think it’s a backup plan in that way, but I do think, like I said, it’s the prize. If we get through this, then we get the entire solar system to play around and experiment with and do really cool things with.
Lex Fridman
Well, I think it could be a lot less than a couple of centuries if there’s a urgency, a real urgency, like a catastrophe. Maybe a small nuclear war breaks out where it’s like, holy shit, this is for sure a bigger one is looming. Maybe if geopolitically the war between China and the United States escalates where there’s this tension that builds and builds and builds and it becomes more obvious that we need to really, really [inaudible 01:05:39].
Well, I think it could be a lot less than a couple of centuries if there’s a urgency, a real urgency, like a catastrophe. Maybe a small nuclear war breaks out where it’s like, holy shit, this is for sure a bigger one is looming. Maybe if geopolitically the war between China and the United States escalates where there’s this tension that builds and builds and builds and it becomes more obvious that we need to really, really [inaudible 01:05:39].
Adam Frank
Yeah. I think my only dilemma with that is that I just think that a self-sufficient base is so far away. That say you start doing that and then there is a full-scale nuclear exchange that base is, it’s not going to last because the self-sufficiency requires a kind of economy. Literally a material economy that we are so far from with Mars that we are centuries from. Like I said, three centuries, which is not that long, two to three centuries. Look at 1820, nobody had traveled faster than 60 miles an hour unless they were falling off a cliff. And now we routinely travel at 500 miles an hour, but it is centuries long.
Yeah. I think my only dilemma with that is that I just think that a self-sufficient base is so far away. That say you start doing that and then there is a full-scale nuclear exchange that base is, it’s not going to last because the self-sufficiency requires a kind of economy. Literally a material economy that we are so far from with Mars that we are centuries from. Like I said, three centuries, which is not that long, two to three centuries. Look at 1820, nobody had traveled faster than 60 miles an hour unless they were falling off a cliff. And now we routinely travel at 500 miles an hour, but it is centuries long.
So, that’s why I think we’d be better off trying to solve these problems than I just think the odds that we’re going to be able to create a self-sufficient colony on Mars before that threat comes to head is small. So, we’d have to deal with the threat.
Lex Fridman
That’s an interesting scientific and engineering question of how to create a self-sufficient colony on Mars or out in space as a space habitat where Earth entirely could be destroyed, you could still survive.
That’s an interesting scientific and engineering question of how to create a self-sufficient colony on Mars or out in space as a space habitat where Earth entirely could be destroyed, you could still survive.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Because it’s really what about, thinking about complex systems? A space habitat would have to be as robust as an ecosystem. As the kind of thing, you go out and you see a pond with all the different webs of interactions. That’s why I always think that if this process of going out into space will help us with climate change and with thinking about making a long-term sustainable version of human civilization. Because you really have to think about these webs, the complexity of these webs and recognize the biosphere has been doing this forever. The biosphere knows how to do this.
Yeah. Because it’s really what about, thinking about complex systems? A space habitat would have to be as robust as an ecosystem. As the kind of thing, you go out and you see a pond with all the different webs of interactions. That’s why I always think that if this process of going out into space will help us with climate change and with thinking about making a long-term sustainable version of human civilization. Because you really have to think about these webs, the complexity of these webs and recognize the biosphere has been doing this forever. The biosphere knows how to do this.
And so, A, how do we build a vibrant, powerful technosphere that also doesn’t mess with the biosphere, mess with the biosphere’s capacity to support our technosphere? So, by trying to build space habitats, in some sense, you’re thinking about building a small-scale version of this. So, I think the two problems are going to feedback on each other.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s also the other possibility of the movie Darren Aronofsky’s Postcard from Earth, where we can create this life gun that just shoots as opposed to engineering everything. Basically, seeding life on a bunch of places and letting life do its thing, which is really good at doing it seems like. So, as opposed to with a space habitat, you basically have to build the entire biosphere and technosphere, the whole thing-
Well, there’s also the other possibility of the movie Darren Aronofsky’s Postcard from Earth, where we can create this life gun that just shoots as opposed to engineering everything. Basically, seeding life on a bunch of places and letting life do its thing, which is really good at doing it seems like. So, as opposed to with a space habitat, you basically have to build the entire biosphere and technosphere, the whole thing-
Adam Frank
The whole thing.
The whole thing.
Lex Fridman
… by yourself. If you just, hey, the aforementioned cockroach with some bacteria, place it in Europa, I think you’d be surprised what happens.
… by yourself. If you just, hey, the aforementioned cockroach with some bacteria, place it in Europa, I think you’d be surprised what happens.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Honestly, if you put a huge amount of bacteria, a giant number of organisms from Earth into on Mars, on some of these moons of the other planets in the solar system, I feel like some of them would actually find a way to survive.
Honestly, if you put a huge amount of bacteria, a giant number of organisms from Earth into on Mars, on some of these moons of the other planets in the solar system, I feel like some of them would actually find a way to survive.
Adam Frank
The moon is hard, the moon may be really hard. But I wonder if somebody must’ve done these experiments. Because we know they’re extremophiles, we know that you can go down 10 miles below the Earth’s surface. And there are things where there’s no sunlight, the conditions are so extreme and there’s lots of microbes having a great time living off the radioactivity in the rocks. But they had lots of time to evolve to those conditions, so I’m not sure if you dumped a bunch of bacteria, so somebody must’ve done these experiments. How fast could microbial evolution occur in under harsh conditions that you maybe get somebody who figures out, ” Okay, I can deal with this.”
The moon is hard, the moon may be really hard. But I wonder if somebody must’ve done these experiments. Because we know they’re extremophiles, we know that you can go down 10 miles below the Earth’s surface. And there are things where there’s no sunlight, the conditions are so extreme and there’s lots of microbes having a great time living off the radioactivity in the rocks. But they had lots of time to evolve to those conditions, so I’m not sure if you dumped a bunch of bacteria, so somebody must’ve done these experiments. How fast could microbial evolution occur in under harsh conditions that you maybe get somebody who figures out, ” Okay, I can deal with this.”
I think the Moon’s too much because it’s so sterile. But Mars, I don’t know, maybe. I don’t know, but it’s an interesting idea.
Lex Fridman
I wonder if somebody has done those experiments.
I wonder if somebody has done those experiments.
Adam Frank
Yeah, you think somebody would, let’s take a bunch of microbes-
Yeah, you think somebody would, let’s take a bunch of microbes-
Lex Fridman
The harshest possible condition of all different kinds, temperature, all this kind of stuff.
The harshest possible condition of all different kinds, temperature, all this kind of stuff.
Adam Frank
Right, pressure, salinity, and then just dump a bunch of things that are not used to it, and then just see, does everybody just die? That’s it.
Right, pressure, salinity, and then just dump a bunch of things that are not used to it, and then just see, does everybody just die? That’s it.
Lex Fridman
The thing about life, it flourishes in a non-sterile environment where there’s a bunch of options for resources, even if the condition is super harsh-
The thing about life, it flourishes in a non-sterile environment where there’s a bunch of options for resources, even if the condition is super harsh-
Lex Fridman
… Options for resources, even if the condition is super harsh. In the lab, I don’t know if you can reconstruct harsh conditions plus options for survival. You know what I mean? You have to have the huge variety of resources that are always available on a planet somehow, even when it’s a super harsh condition. So that’s actually not a trivial experiment and if somebody did that experiment in the lab, I’d be a little bit skeptical because I could see bacteria doesn’t survive in this kind of temperature. But then I’d be like, “I don’t know. I don’t know.”
… Options for resources, even if the condition is super harsh. In the lab, I don’t know if you can reconstruct harsh conditions plus options for survival. You know what I mean? You have to have the huge variety of resources that are always available on a planet somehow, even when it’s a super harsh condition. So that’s actually not a trivial experiment and if somebody did that experiment in the lab, I’d be a little bit skeptical because I could see bacteria doesn’t survive in this kind of temperature. But then I’d be like, “I don’t know. I don’t know.”
Adam Frank
Right. Are there other options? Is the condition rich enough?
Right. Are there other options? Is the condition rich enough?
Lex Fridman
Rich enough, yeah.
Rich enough, yeah.
Adam Frank
There’s an alternative view though, which is, there’s this great book by Kim Stanley Robinson called Aurora. So there’s been 1,000,000 sentry ship stories where Earth sends out a generation ship or sentry ship, and it goes to another planet and they land and they colonize. And on this one, they get all the way there and they think the planet’s going to be habitable. And it turns out that it’s not habitable for earth life. There’s bacteria or prions actually, that just kill people in the simplest way. And the important thing about this book was the idea that life is actually very tied to its planet. It may not be so easy. I just thought it was a really interesting idea. I’m not saying necessarily supporting it, but that actually, life reflects the planetary conditions… Not the planetary, the planet itself, the whole lineage, the whole history of the biosphere. And it may not be so easy to just be like, “Oh, just drop it over here and it’ll…”
There’s an alternative view though, which is, there’s this great book by Kim Stanley Robinson called Aurora. So there’s been 1,000,000 sentry ship stories where Earth sends out a generation ship or sentry ship, and it goes to another planet and they land and they colonize. And on this one, they get all the way there and they think the planet’s going to be habitable. And it turns out that it’s not habitable for earth life. There’s bacteria or prions actually, that just kill people in the simplest way. And the important thing about this book was the idea that life is actually very tied to its planet. It may not be so easy. I just thought it was a really interesting idea. I’m not saying necessarily supporting it, but that actually, life reflects the planetary conditions… Not the planetary, the planet itself, the whole lineage, the whole history of the biosphere. And it may not be so easy to just be like, “Oh, just drop it over here and it’ll…”
Because the bacteria, even though they’re individual examples of life, and I believe this the true unit of life, it’s not DNA, it’s not a cell, it’s the biosphere. It’s the whole community.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That’s actually an interesting field of study is how when you arrive from one planet to another… So we humans arrive to a planet that has a biosphere, maybe a technosphere, what is the way to integrate without killing yourself or-
Yeah. That’s actually an interesting field of study is how when you arrive from one planet to another… So we humans arrive to a planet that has a biosphere, maybe a technosphere, what is the way to integrate without killing yourself or-
Adam Frank
Or the other one?
Or the other one?
Lex Fridman
Or the other one? Let’s stick to biology. That’s an interesting question. I don’t know if we have a rigorous way of investigating that.
Or the other one? Let’s stick to biology. That’s an interesting question. I don’t know if we have a rigorous way of investigating that.
Adam Frank
Because everything on life has the same lineage. We all come from LUCA, the last universal common ancestor. And what you see is often in science fiction, people will do things like, “Oh, well, it’s okay,” because that metabolism, that biochemistry is so different from ours that we can coexist because they don’t even know each other.
Because everything on life has the same lineage. We all come from LUCA, the last universal common ancestor. And what you see is often in science fiction, people will do things like, “Oh, well, it’s okay,” because that metabolism, that biochemistry is so different from ours that we can coexist because they don’t even know each other.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Adam Frank
And then the other version is you get there, you land, and instantly, the nose bleeds and you’re dead. So it’s-
And then the other version is you get there, you land, and instantly, the nose bleeds and you’re dead. So it’s-
Lex Fridman
Unfortunately, I think it’s the latter.
Unfortunately, I think it’s the latter.
Adam Frank
Yeah, it feels like the alien kind of thing.
Yeah, it feels like the alien kind of thing.
Search for aliens
Lex Fridman
So as we look out there, according to the Drake equations we just discussed, it seems impossible to me that there’s not civilizations everywhere. So how do we look at them, this process of SETI?
So as we look out there, according to the Drake equations we just discussed, it seems impossible to me that there’s not civilizations everywhere. So how do we look at them, this process of SETI?
Adam Frank
I have to put on my scientist hat and just say, my gut feeling is that dumb life, so to speak, is common. I can see ways in which intelligent civilizations may be sparse, but until… We got to go look, it’s all armchair astronomy.
I have to put on my scientist hat and just say, my gut feeling is that dumb life, so to speak, is common. I can see ways in which intelligent civilizations may be sparse, but until… We got to go look, it’s all armchair astronomy.
Lex Fridman
That’s from a rigorous scientific perspective. From my bro science perspective, it seems, again, smoking the aforementioned weed-
That’s from a rigorous scientific perspective. From my bro science perspective, it seems, again, smoking the aforementioned weed-
Adam Frank
Smoking the weed, yeah. After the bong hit, it seems so.
Smoking the weed, yeah. After the bong hit, it seems so.
Lex Fridman
Honestly, it really just seems impossible to me that there’s not potentially dead, but advanced civilizations everywhere in our galaxy.
Honestly, it really just seems impossible to me that there’s not potentially dead, but advanced civilizations everywhere in our galaxy.
Adam Frank
Yeah, yeah. The potentially dead part, I think, right. It could be that making civilizations is easy, they just don’t last long. So when we went out there, we’d find a lot of extinct civilizations.
Yeah, yeah. The potentially dead part, I think, right. It could be that making civilizations is easy, they just don’t last long. So when we went out there, we’d find a lot of extinct civilizations.
Lex Fridman
Extinct civilizations. Yeah. Apex predators don’t survive. They get better, better, better.
Extinct civilizations. Yeah. Apex predators don’t survive. They get better, better, better.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And they die, kill themselves all somehow. Anyway. So just how do we find them?
And they die, kill themselves all somehow. Anyway. So just how do we find them?
Adam Frank
Yeah. So SETI, Search for Extraterrestrial Technology is a term that I am not fond of using anymore. Some people in my field are. So I’m sorry folks, but what I really like is the idea of technosignatures because I think to me, SETI is the… First of all, intelligence. We’re not really looking for intelligence. We’re looking for technology, and SETI, the classic idea of SETI is the radio telescopes and contact, Jodie Foster with the headphones. That whole thing is still part, it’s still active, there’s still great things going on with it, but suddenly, this whole new window opened up. When we discovered exoplanets, we now found a new way to look for intelligence civilizations or life in general in a way that doesn’t have any of the assumptions that had to go into the classic radio SETI. And specifically, what I mean is we’re not looking for somebody sending us a beacon. You really needed that with a classic model, for a bunch of different reasons. You have to assume they wanted to be found and they were sending you a super powerful beacon.
Yeah. So SETI, Search for Extraterrestrial Technology is a term that I am not fond of using anymore. Some people in my field are. So I’m sorry folks, but what I really like is the idea of technosignatures because I think to me, SETI is the… First of all, intelligence. We’re not really looking for intelligence. We’re looking for technology, and SETI, the classic idea of SETI is the radio telescopes and contact, Jodie Foster with the headphones. That whole thing is still part, it’s still active, there’s still great things going on with it, but suddenly, this whole new window opened up. When we discovered exoplanets, we now found a new way to look for intelligence civilizations or life in general in a way that doesn’t have any of the assumptions that had to go into the classic radio SETI. And specifically, what I mean is we’re not looking for somebody sending us a beacon. You really needed that with a classic model, for a bunch of different reasons. You have to assume they wanted to be found and they were sending you a super powerful beacon.
Now, because we know exactly where to look and we know exactly how to look, we can just go about looking for passive signatures of the civilization, going about its civilizationing business, without asking whether they want to be contacted or not. So this is what we call a biosignature or a technosignature. It is an imprint in the light from the planet of the activity of a biosphere or a technosphere, and that’s really important. That is why the whole Gaia idea ends up being astrobiological, that biospheres and technospheres are so potent, they change the entire planet, and you can see that from 20 light years.
So let’s give an example of a biosignature to start off with, which would be a signature of a biosphere, oxygen. Right? On earth at least, we know that oxygen is only in the atmosphere because life put it there. If life went away, the oxygen, and particularly oxygen and methane, that pair, they would disappear very quickly. They’d react away. They’d all be gone. So if you find a planet with oxygen and methane, that’s a good bet that there’s a biosphere there. Okay, what about technospheres? Technospheres, so I’m the principal investigator on the first grant NASA has ever given to do these exoplanet technosignatures. For reasons we can talk about, NASA had gotten pretty gun-shy about funding anything about intelligent life, but okay. What’s an example of a technosignature? Well, one could be atmospheric, “Pollution.” I’m going to put, “Pollution,” in quotes here because it doesn’t have to be pollution, but gases like chlorofluorocarbons.
So we dumped a huge amount of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere by mistake. It was affecting the ozone, but we put so much in there that actually, this is one of the things we did, we did a paper where we showed, you could detect it across interstellar distances. You could look at the atmosphere, look at the light coming from a distant planet, pass the light through a spectrograph and see the spectral lines, the fingerprint, the spectral fingerprint of chlorofluorocarbons in an atmosphere. And that would for sure tell you that there was a technological civilization there, because there’s no other way to make chlorofluorocarbons except through some kind of industrial process.
Lex Fridman
So in the case of the biosphere, you’re looking for anomalies in the spectrograph?
So in the case of the biosphere, you’re looking for anomalies in the spectrograph?
Adam Frank
I wouldn’t necessarily call these anomalies. For biosignature, I’m looking for things that a geosphere, right? That just rock and air wouldn’t produce on its own.
I wouldn’t necessarily call these anomalies. For biosignature, I’m looking for things that a geosphere, right? That just rock and air wouldn’t produce on its own.
Lex Fridman
What kind of chemicals would life produce?
What kind of chemicals would life produce?
Adam Frank
Right. And that’s the interesting thing. So we can use earth as an example. We can say, look, oxygen. We know there would be no oxygen in the atmosphere if it wasn’t for dimethyl sulfide, which is a compound that phylloplankton dump into the atmosphere, a lot of it, that’s sometimes mentioned. And there was a paper that somebody wrote where it was like, “Well, we’re not saying we see it, but there’s a bunch of noise in the spectra right there.” So there’s a whole list of things that earth has done that are in the atmosphere that might be biosignatures, but now we’re reaching an interesting point. The field has matured to the point where we can start asking about agnostic biosignatures, things that have nothing to do with earth’s history, but we think that would still be indications of this weirdness we call life. What is it in general that life does that leaves an imprint?
Right. And that’s the interesting thing. So we can use earth as an example. We can say, look, oxygen. We know there would be no oxygen in the atmosphere if it wasn’t for dimethyl sulfide, which is a compound that phylloplankton dump into the atmosphere, a lot of it, that’s sometimes mentioned. And there was a paper that somebody wrote where it was like, “Well, we’re not saying we see it, but there’s a bunch of noise in the spectra right there.” So there’s a whole list of things that earth has done that are in the atmosphere that might be biosignatures, but now we’re reaching an interesting point. The field has matured to the point where we can start asking about agnostic biosignatures, things that have nothing to do with earth’s history, but we think that would still be indications of this weirdness we call life. What is it in general that life does that leaves an imprint?
So one of these things could be the structure of the network of chemical reactions that biology always produces very different chemical networks, who’s reacting with who, than just rock and water. So there’s been some proposals for networked biosignatures. Information theory, you can try and look at the information that is in the different compounds that you find in the atmosphere, and maybe that information shows you like, “Oh, there’s too much information here. There must’ve been biology happening. It’s not just rock.” Same thing for techno. That’s what we’re working on right now, for technosignatures as well.
Lex Fridman
So how do you detect technosignatures?
So how do you detect technosignatures?
Adam Frank
Okay. So with technosignatures, I gave the example of chlorofluorocarbons. So that would be an example of, and again, that one is a non-agnostic one, because we sort of like, “Oh, we produced chlorofluorocarbons. Maybe they will.” And there’s solar panels. The glint off of solar panels will produce the way the light is reflected off of solar panels, no matter what it’s made out of actually. There was a paper that Manasvi Lingam and Avi Loeb did in… I think it was 2017. We’ve just followed up on it. That actually could act as a technosignature. You’d be able to see in the reflected light this big jump that would occur because of… City lights, artificial illumination. If there’s really large scale cities like Coruscant and Star Wars or Trantor in the foundation, those city lights would be detectable, the spectral imprint of those across 20, 30 light years.
Okay. So with technosignatures, I gave the example of chlorofluorocarbons. So that would be an example of, and again, that one is a non-agnostic one, because we sort of like, “Oh, we produced chlorofluorocarbons. Maybe they will.” And there’s solar panels. The glint off of solar panels will produce the way the light is reflected off of solar panels, no matter what it’s made out of actually. There was a paper that Manasvi Lingam and Avi Loeb did in… I think it was 2017. We’ve just followed up on it. That actually could act as a technosignature. You’d be able to see in the reflected light this big jump that would occur because of… City lights, artificial illumination. If there’s really large scale cities like Coruscant and Star Wars or Trantor in the foundation, those city lights would be detectable, the spectral imprint of those across 20, 30 light years.
So our job in this grant is to develop the first ever library of technosignatures. Nobody’s really ever thought about this before. So we’re trying to come up with all the possible ideas for what a civilization might produce that could be visible across interstellar distances. And are these good ones or are these ones going to be hard to detect or such?
Lex Fridman
City lights. So if a planet is all lit up with artificial light across 20 to 30 light years, we can see it.
City lights. So if a planet is all lit up with artificial light across 20 to 30 light years, we can see it.
Adam Frank
Yeah. If you looked at earth at night from a distance, looked at spectra and you had sensitive enough instruments, you’d be able to see all the sodium lights and the reflected light off of. They bounce off the ground, the light bounces off the ground. So you’d convolve the sodium lamps with the reflected spectra from the ground. And yeah, you’d be able to see that there’s city lights. Now, increase that by a factor of 1,000 if you had a trantor, and you’d be able to detect that across interstellar distances. Thomas Beatty did this work, who’s now working with us.
Yeah. If you looked at earth at night from a distance, looked at spectra and you had sensitive enough instruments, you’d be able to see all the sodium lights and the reflected light off of. They bounce off the ground, the light bounces off the ground. So you’d convolve the sodium lamps with the reflected spectra from the ground. And yeah, you’d be able to see that there’s city lights. Now, increase that by a factor of 1,000 if you had a trantor, and you’d be able to detect that across interstellar distances. Thomas Beatty did this work, who’s now working with us.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the most detectable thing about earth?
What do you think is the most detectable thing about earth?
Adam Frank
Wow, this is fun. We just have Sophia Sheikh, who’s part of our collaboration, just did a paper. We did earth from earth. If you were looking at earth with earth technology for a bunch of different technosignatures, how close would you have to be to be able to detect them? And most of them turn out to be… You’d have to be pretty close, at least out to the Oort cloud, but actually, it is our radio signatures still, that is still most detectable.
Wow, this is fun. We just have Sophia Sheikh, who’s part of our collaboration, just did a paper. We did earth from earth. If you were looking at earth with earth technology for a bunch of different technosignatures, how close would you have to be to be able to detect them? And most of them turn out to be… You’d have to be pretty close, at least out to the Oort cloud, but actually, it is our radio signatures still, that is still most detectable.
Lex Fridman
By the way, when you said you had to be pretty close and then you said the Oort cloud, that’s not very close. But you mean from an interstellar perspective.
By the way, when you said you had to be pretty close and then you said the Oort cloud, that’s not very close. But you mean from an interstellar perspective.
Adam Frank
Interstellar distance, because we really want to know is I’m sitting here on earth, I’m looking at these exoplanets, the nearest star is four light years away. So that’s the minimum distance. So if I’m looking at exoplanets, what kind of signals could I see?
Interstellar distance, because we really want to know is I’m sitting here on earth, I’m looking at these exoplanets, the nearest star is four light years away. So that’s the minimum distance. So if I’m looking at exoplanets, what kind of signals could I see?
Lex Fridman
What is detectable about earth with our current technology from our nearest solar system?
What is detectable about earth with our current technology from our nearest solar system?
Adam Frank
Oh my God, there’s all kinds of stuff. Well, like the chlorofluorocarbons, you can see earth’s pollution, and I think city lights, you had to be within the solar system.
Oh my God, there’s all kinds of stuff. Well, like the chlorofluorocarbons, you can see earth’s pollution, and I think city lights, you had to be within the solar system.
Lex Fridman
If they do direct imaging of earth-
If they do direct imaging of earth-
Adam Frank
They’re going to need much more powerful, but let me tell you, let’s talk about direct imaging for a moment because I just have to go on, this is such a cool idea. So what we really want, and the next generation of space telescopes and such is we’re trying to do direct imaging. We’re trying to get an image of a planet separated from its star to be able to see the reflected light or the actual emission from the planet itself.
They’re going to need much more powerful, but let me tell you, let’s talk about direct imaging for a moment because I just have to go on, this is such a cool idea. So what we really want, and the next generation of space telescopes and such is we’re trying to do direct imaging. We’re trying to get an image of a planet separated from its star to be able to see the reflected light or the actual emission from the planet itself.
Lex Fridman
By the way, just to clarify, direct imaging means literally a picture?
By the way, just to clarify, direct imaging means literally a picture?
Adam Frank
A picture, but the problem is that even with the thing that’s going to come after JWST, it’s going to be a pixel. You’re not going to get any kind of resolution. You’ll be able to get the light from it, which you’ll be able to pass through a spectrograph, but you’re not going to be able to take a picture. But there is this idea called the solar gravity lens telescope, I think that’s what it is. And the idea is insane. So their general relativity says, “Look, massive bodies distort space. They actually curve space-time.” So the sun is a massive body, and so that means that the light passing through the sun gets focused like a lens. So the idea is to send a bunch of telescopes out into the Oort cloud, and then look back towards the sun towards an exoplanet that is behind… Not directly behind the sun, but is in the direction of the sun.
A picture, but the problem is that even with the thing that’s going to come after JWST, it’s going to be a pixel. You’re not going to get any kind of resolution. You’ll be able to get the light from it, which you’ll be able to pass through a spectrograph, but you’re not going to be able to take a picture. But there is this idea called the solar gravity lens telescope, I think that’s what it is. And the idea is insane. So their general relativity says, “Look, massive bodies distort space. They actually curve space-time.” So the sun is a massive body, and so that means that the light passing through the sun gets focused like a lens. So the idea is to send a bunch of telescopes out into the Oort cloud, and then look back towards the sun towards an exoplanet that is behind… Not directly behind the sun, but is in the direction of the sun.
And then let the sun act like a lens and collect, focus the light onto the telescope and you would be able to get, and they’ve done… It’s amazing. This idea is insane. They’d be able to get, if everything works out, 24 kilometer resolution. You’d be able to see Manhattan on an exoplanet. And this thing, it sounds insane, but actually, NASA, the team has already gotten through three levels of NASA… There’s the NASA program for, “Give us your wackiest idea.” And then the ones that survive that are like, “Okay, tell us whether that wacky idea is even feasible?” And they’re marching along. And the idea is that they even have plans for how you’d be able to get these probes out into the Oort cloud on relatively fast time scales. You need to be about 500 times as far from the sun as earth is, but right now, the idea seems to hold together.
So probably when I’ll be dead, but when you’re an old man, it’s possible that something like this… Could you imagine having that kind of resolution, a picture of an exoplanet down to kilometers? So I’m very excited about that [inaudible 01:24:26].
Lex Fridman
I can only imagine having a picture like that, and then there’s some mysterious artifacts that you’re seeing.
I can only imagine having a picture like that, and then there’s some mysterious artifacts that you’re seeing.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s both inspiring and almost heartbreaking that we can see. I think we would be able to see a civilization where there’s a lot of scientists agree that this is very likely something and then we can’t-
It’s both inspiring and almost heartbreaking that we can see. I think we would be able to see a civilization where there’s a lot of scientists agree that this is very likely something and then we can’t-
Adam Frank
We can’t get there. But again, this is the thing about being long-lived. We’ve got to get to the point where we’re long-lived enough that… Let’s imagine that we find, say 10 light years away, we find a planet that looks like it’s got technosignatures. Righ? It doesn’t end there. That would be the most important discovery in the history of humanity, and it wouldn’t be like, “Well, okay, we’re done.” The first thing we do is we build bigger telescopes to try and do those imaging. And then the next thing after that, we plan a mission there. We would figure out, with Breakthrough Starshot, there was this idea of trying to use giant lasers to propel small spacecrafts, light sails, almost to the speed of light. So they would get there in 10 years and take pictures. So if we actually made this discovery, there would be the impulse. There would be the effort to actually try and send something to get there.
We can’t get there. But again, this is the thing about being long-lived. We’ve got to get to the point where we’re long-lived enough that… Let’s imagine that we find, say 10 light years away, we find a planet that looks like it’s got technosignatures. Righ? It doesn’t end there. That would be the most important discovery in the history of humanity, and it wouldn’t be like, “Well, okay, we’re done.” The first thing we do is we build bigger telescopes to try and do those imaging. And then the next thing after that, we plan a mission there. We would figure out, with Breakthrough Starshot, there was this idea of trying to use giant lasers to propel small spacecrafts, light sails, almost to the speed of light. So they would get there in 10 years and take pictures. So if we actually made this discovery, there would be the impulse. There would be the effort to actually try and send something to get there.
Now, we probably couldn’t land, so maybe we take 30 years to build, 10 years to get there, 10 years to get the picture back. Okay, you’re dead, but your kids are… You know what I mean? So it becomes now this multi-generational project. How long did it take to build the pyramids? How long did it take to build the giant cathedrals? Those were multi-generational projects, and I think we’re on the cusp of that kind of project.
Lex Fridman
I think that would probably unite humans.
I think that would probably unite humans.
Adam Frank
I think it would play a big role. I think it would be helpful. Human beings are a mess, let’s face it. That’s why I always say to people, discovery of life, of any kind of life, even if it was microbial life, it wouldn’t matter, that to know that we’re not an accident, to know that there is probably… If we found one example of life, we’d know that we’re not an accident and there’s probably lots of life and that we’re a community. We’re part of a cosmic kind of community of life, and who knows what life has done? All bets are off with life.
I think it would play a big role. I think it would be helpful. Human beings are a mess, let’s face it. That’s why I always say to people, discovery of life, of any kind of life, even if it was microbial life, it wouldn’t matter, that to know that we’re not an accident, to know that there is probably… If we found one example of life, we’d know that we’re not an accident and there’s probably lots of life and that we’re a community. We’re part of a cosmic kind of community of life, and who knows what life has done? All bets are off with life.
Lex Fridman
Since we’re talking about the future of telescopes, let’s talk about our current super sexy, awesome telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, that I still can’t believe actually worked.
Since we’re talking about the future of telescopes, let’s talk about our current super sexy, awesome telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, that I still can’t believe actually worked.
Adam Frank
I can’t believe it worked either. I was really skeptical. I was like, “Okay, guys. All right, sure.”
I can’t believe it worked either. I was really skeptical. I was like, “Okay, guys. All right, sure.”
Lex Fridman
We only got one shot for this incredibly complicated piece of hardware to unfold. So what kind of stuff can we see with it? I’ve been just looking through different kinds of announcements that have been detected. There’s been some direct imaging-
We only got one shot for this incredibly complicated piece of hardware to unfold. So what kind of stuff can we see with it? I’ve been just looking through different kinds of announcements that have been detected. There’s been some direct imaging-
Adam Frank
Yes, like a single pixel.
Yes, like a single pixel.
Lex Fridman
The kinds of exoplanets were able to direct image I guess would have to be hot.
The kinds of exoplanets were able to direct image I guess would have to be hot.
Adam Frank
Hot, reasonably far away from the star. I think JWST is really at the hairy edge of being able to do much with this. What’s more important I think, for JWST is the spectra. And the problem with spectra is that there’s not sexy pictures. It’s like, “Hey, look at this wiggly line,” but be able to find and characterize atmospheres around terrestrial exoplanets is the critical next step. That’s where we are right now. In order to look for life, we need to find planets with atmospheres. And then we need to be able to do this thing called characterization, where we look at the spectral fingerprints for what’s in the atmosphere. Is there carbon? Is there carbon dioxide? Is there oxygen? Is there methane? And that’s the most exciting thing.
Hot, reasonably far away from the star. I think JWST is really at the hairy edge of being able to do much with this. What’s more important I think, for JWST is the spectra. And the problem with spectra is that there’s not sexy pictures. It’s like, “Hey, look at this wiggly line,” but be able to find and characterize atmospheres around terrestrial exoplanets is the critical next step. That’s where we are right now. In order to look for life, we need to find planets with atmospheres. And then we need to be able to do this thing called characterization, where we look at the spectral fingerprints for what’s in the atmosphere. Is there carbon? Is there carbon dioxide? Is there oxygen? Is there methane? And that’s the most exciting thing.
For example, there was this planet K2-18b, which they did a beautiful job getting the spectra, and the spectra indicated it may be an entirely new kind of habitable world called a hycean world, hycean meaning hydrogen ocean world. And that is a kind of planet that it would be in the super earth, sub-Neptune domain we were talking about, maybe eight times the mass of the earth. But it’s got a layer of hydrogen, of an atmosphere of hydrogen. Hydrogen is an amazing greenhouse gas. So hydrogen will keep the planet underneath it warm enough that you could get liquid water, you can get a giant ocean of liquid water, and that’s an entirely different kind of planet. That could be habitable planet. It could be a 60 degree warm ocean.
So the data that came out of JWST for that planet was good enough to be able to indicate like, “Oh yeah, you know what? From what we understand with the models, this looks like it could be a hycean world.”
Lex Fridman
And it’s 120 light years away from earth.
And it’s 120 light years away from earth.
Adam Frank
And so isn’t that amazing? It’s 120 light years away, but we can see into the atmosphere. We can see to the atmosphere so well that we can be like, “Oh, look, methane.” Methane was a five sigma detection. You knew that the data were so good that it was the gold standard of science.
And so isn’t that amazing? It’s 120 light years away, but we can see into the atmosphere. We can see to the atmosphere so well that we can be like, “Oh, look, methane.” Methane was a five sigma detection. You knew that the data were so good that it was the gold standard of science.
Alien megastructures
Lex Fridman
What about detecting maybe through direct imaging or in other ways, megastructures, that the civilizations build?
What about detecting maybe through direct imaging or in other ways, megastructures, that the civilizations build?
Adam Frank
You know what’s great about megastructures is first of all, it’s fun to say, who doesn’t want to say megastructure? Alien, megastructure, right? Every morning, I’m looking for an opportunity to say that. So the err example of this is the Dyson sphere, which is amazing because it was literally 1960 that this idea came up.
You know what’s great about megastructures is first of all, it’s fun to say, who doesn’t want to say megastructure? Alien, megastructure, right? Every morning, I’m looking for an opportunity to say that. So the err example of this is the Dyson sphere, which is amazing because it was literally 1960 that this idea came up.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain the Dyson sphere?
Can you explain the Dyson sphere?
Adam Frank
Yeah, the Dyson sphere. So Freeman Dyson, one of the greatest physicists ever, who was very broad-minded and thought about a lot of different things. He recognized that as civilizations progress, what they’re going to need is ever more energy to do ever more amazing things. And what’s the best energy source in a solar system? It’s the star. Right? So if you surrounded the star with solar collecting machines, sunlight collecting machines… Anyway, the limit of this would actually build a sphere, an actual sphere around your star that had all solar panels on the inside. You could capture every photon the star produced, which is this insane amount of light. You would have enough power now to do anything to re-engineer your solar system. So that was a Dyson sphere.
Yeah, the Dyson sphere. So Freeman Dyson, one of the greatest physicists ever, who was very broad-minded and thought about a lot of different things. He recognized that as civilizations progress, what they’re going to need is ever more energy to do ever more amazing things. And what’s the best energy source in a solar system? It’s the star. Right? So if you surrounded the star with solar collecting machines, sunlight collecting machines… Anyway, the limit of this would actually build a sphere, an actual sphere around your star that had all solar panels on the inside. You could capture every photon the star produced, which is this insane amount of light. You would have enough power now to do anything to re-engineer your solar system. So that was a Dyson sphere.
It turns out that a Dyson sphere doesn’t really work, it’s unstable, but a Dyson swarm, and that’s really what he meant, this large collection of large orbiting structures that were able to collect light.
Lex Fridman
So he didn’t actually mean a rigid sphere structure.
So he didn’t actually mean a rigid sphere structure.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
He basically meant a swarm. So like you said, then the limit basically starts to look-
He basically meant a swarm. So like you said, then the limit basically starts to look-
Adam Frank
People started to say, “Yeah, it was like a sphere.” And we actually almost thought we might’ve found one of these back with a Bajoyan star. The way we detect planets is through the transit method where the planet passes in front of the star and there’s a dip in the starlight. It’s a little eclipse basically, and we know exactly what they should look like. And then with this one star, there were these really weird transits where it was like this little dragon’s tooth, and then there’d be another one and another one and another one, and then nothing, and then three more. And in the paper that was written about this, they went through the list of, it could be comets, it could be chunks of a broken up planet, and it could also be an alien megastructure. And of course, the news picked up on this and everybody’s newsfeed the next day, “Alien megastructures discovered.”
People started to say, “Yeah, it was like a sphere.” And we actually almost thought we might’ve found one of these back with a Bajoyan star. The way we detect planets is through the transit method where the planet passes in front of the star and there’s a dip in the starlight. It’s a little eclipse basically, and we know exactly what they should look like. And then with this one star, there were these really weird transits where it was like this little dragon’s tooth, and then there’d be another one and another one and another one, and then nothing, and then three more. And in the paper that was written about this, they went through the list of, it could be comets, it could be chunks of a broken up planet, and it could also be an alien megastructure. And of course, the news picked up on this and everybody’s newsfeed the next day, “Alien megastructures discovered.”
Turns out, sadly, they were not alien megastructures. They were probably gas or dust clouds, but it raised the possibility like, “Oh, these are observable.” And people have worked out the details of what they would look like. You don’t really need direct imaging. You can do transits, right? They’re big enough that when they pass in front of the star, they’re going to produce a little blip of light because that’s what they’re supposed to. They’re absorbing starlight. So people have worked out like, “Well, a square one or a triangular one.”
Lex Fridman
But that wouldn’t be a distance sphere. That would be like one object.
But that wouldn’t be a distance sphere. That would be like one object.
Adam Frank
One object, right. If it’s a swarm, you’d expect the light to be blinking in and out as these things pass in front of… If you’ve got thousands of these, much of the time, they’ll be blotting out the star. Sometimes they won’t be. Right? And so you’re going to get an irregular transit signal.
One object, right. If it’s a swarm, you’d expect the light to be blinking in and out as these things pass in front of… If you’ve got thousands of these, much of the time, they’ll be blotting out the star. Sometimes they won’t be. Right? And so you’re going to get an irregular transit signal.
Lex Fridman
One you wouldn’t expect from a star that doesn’t have anything.
One you wouldn’t expect from a star that doesn’t have anything.
Adam Frank
Exactly. Or just a planet or a couple of planets. There’d be so many of these that it would be like, “Beep, beep, blip, blip, blip, blip, blip.”
Exactly. Or just a planet or a couple of planets. There’d be so many of these that it would be like, “Beep, beep, blip, blip, blip, blip, blip.”
Lex Fridman
And that usually doesn’t happen in a star system because there’s only just a handful of planets.
And that usually doesn’t happen in a star system because there’s only just a handful of planets.
Adam Frank
That’s exactly what it is. Everything’s coagulant. In a stable solar system, you get a handful of planets, five, 10, that’s it probably, and nothing else. So if now suddenly you see lots of these little micro transits telling you there’s something else that’s big enough to create a transit, but too many of them, and also, within a regular shape, the transit itself, that these could be megastructures.
That’s exactly what it is. Everything’s coagulant. In a stable solar system, you get a handful of planets, five, 10, that’s it probably, and nothing else. So if now suddenly you see lots of these little micro transits telling you there’s something else that’s big enough to create a transit, but too many of them, and also, within a regular shape, the transit itself, that these could be megastructures.
Lex Fridman
How many people are looking for megastructures now?
How many people are looking for megastructures now?
Adam Frank
Well, the main groups looking for megastructures are again, Jason Wright at Penn State, and collaborators. The way they’re looking for it though is for infrared light because the second law of thermodynamics says, “Look, if you capture all of this starlight, your thing’s going to warm up and emit an infrared.” It’s going to be waste heat, waste heat and waste light from this.
Well, the main groups looking for megastructures are again, Jason Wright at Penn State, and collaborators. The way they’re looking for it though is for infrared light because the second law of thermodynamics says, “Look, if you capture all of this starlight, your thing’s going to warm up and emit an infrared.” It’s going to be waste heat, waste heat and waste light from this.
Lex Fridman
That feels like a louder, clearer way to detect it.
That feels like a louder, clearer way to detect it.
Adam Frank
Right. And that’s actually why Dyson proposed it. He wasn’t really proposing it because he was saying, “This is what civilizations are going to do.” He proposed it because he was like, “Oh, we want to start looking for alien civilizations. Here’s something that would have a detectable signature.” So Jason and company have done pretty good searches, and recently, they made news because they were able to eliminate a lot of places. “No, these are not Dyson Spheres,” but they did have a couple that were anomalous enough that they’re like, “Well, this is what it would look like.” It’s not a detection. They were saying they would never say it’s a detection, but they were not non-detections.
Right. And that’s actually why Dyson proposed it. He wasn’t really proposing it because he was saying, “This is what civilizations are going to do.” He proposed it because he was like, “Oh, we want to start looking for alien civilizations. Here’s something that would have a detectable signature.” So Jason and company have done pretty good searches, and recently, they made news because they were able to eliminate a lot of places. “No, these are not Dyson Spheres,” but they did have a couple that were anomalous enough that they’re like, “Well, this is what it would look like.” It’s not a detection. They were saying they would never say it’s a detection, but they were not non-detections.
Lex Fridman
And they’re potential candidates.
And they’re potential candidates.
Adam Frank
Potential candidates, yeah.
Potential candidates, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Love it. We have megastructure candidates. That’s inspiring. What other megastructures do you think that could be? So Dyson Sphere is about capturing the energy of a star.
Love it. We have megastructure candidates. That’s inspiring. What other megastructures do you think that could be? So Dyson Sphere is about capturing the energy of a star.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
There could be other-
There could be other-
Adam Frank
Well, there’s something called the Clark Belt. So we have a bunch of satellites that are in geosynchronous orbit. Nothing naturally is going to end up in geosynchronous orbit. Geosynchronous orbit is one particular orbit that’s really useful if you want to beam things straight down, or if you want to put a space elevator up. Right? So there’s this idea that if a civilization becomes advanced enough that it’s really using geosynchronous orbit, that you actually get a belt, something that would actually be detectable from a distance via a transit. There’s been a couple papers written about the possibility of these Clark Belts, densely occupied Clark Belts being a megastructure. It’s not as mega as a Dyson swarm, but it’s planetary scale.
Well, there’s something called the Clark Belt. So we have a bunch of satellites that are in geosynchronous orbit. Nothing naturally is going to end up in geosynchronous orbit. Geosynchronous orbit is one particular orbit that’s really useful if you want to beam things straight down, or if you want to put a space elevator up. Right? So there’s this idea that if a civilization becomes advanced enough that it’s really using geosynchronous orbit, that you actually get a belt, something that would actually be detectable from a distance via a transit. There’s been a couple papers written about the possibility of these Clark Belts, densely occupied Clark Belts being a megastructure. It’s not as mega as a Dyson swarm, but it’s planetary scale.
Lex Fridman
You think it’s detectable, Clark Belt?
You think it’s detectable, Clark Belt?
Adam Frank
It could be. In our list of technosignatures, it would be down there, but it would be… Again, if you had an advanced enough civilization that did enough of this, you’d have a Clark Belt. And the question is whether or not it’s detectable?
It could be. In our list of technosignatures, it would be down there, but it would be… Again, if you had an advanced enough civilization that did enough of this, you’d have a Clark Belt. And the question is whether or not it’s detectable?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, probably Dyson sphere is the… That’s the more exciting thing too.
Yeah, probably Dyson sphere is the… That’s the more exciting thing too.
Adam Frank
That’s the go-to one. Yeah.
That’s the go-to one. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of the Dyson Sphere, let’s talk through the Kardashev scales.
Speaking of the Dyson Sphere, let’s talk through the Kardashev scales.
Kardashev scale
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
What is the Kardashev scale and where are humans on it?
What is the Kardashev scale and where are humans on it?
Adam Frank
Right. So the Kardashev scale was at the same time. This is this golden age of SETI, like ’59 to ’65 when it just starts. Frank Drake has done his first experiment. People are like, “Oh my God, this is even possible.” And so people are just throwing out these ideas and as I said in the book, science is conservative. And what I mean by that is it holds onto its best ideas. So Kardashev comes up with this idea that, “Look, if we’re…” Again, it’s always about detectability. “If we’re looking for civilizations, we should think about what are the, “Natural,” stages,” natural in quotes, “That a civilization goes through?” And he was thinking in terms of energy use, like a good physicist. So he said, “Look, the first hurdle in terms of energy or threshold that a civilization will go through is using all the starlight that falls onto a planet.” He called that a type one civilization. In whatever way you’re doing it, some large fraction of the starlight that falls on your planet, you’re using for your own ends.
Right. So the Kardashev scale was at the same time. This is this golden age of SETI, like ’59 to ’65 when it just starts. Frank Drake has done his first experiment. People are like, “Oh my God, this is even possible.” And so people are just throwing out these ideas and as I said in the book, science is conservative. And what I mean by that is it holds onto its best ideas. So Kardashev comes up with this idea that, “Look, if we’re…” Again, it’s always about detectability. “If we’re looking for civilizations, we should think about what are the, “Natural,” stages,” natural in quotes, “That a civilization goes through?” And he was thinking in terms of energy use, like a good physicist. So he said, “Look, the first hurdle in terms of energy or threshold that a civilization will go through is using all the starlight that falls onto a planet.” He called that a type one civilization. In whatever way you’re doing it, some large fraction of the starlight that falls on your planet, you’re using for your own ends.
The next would be to use all the starlight there is from that star. Right? So that’s the Dyson sphere. So Dyson had already proposed his idea of the swarm and Kardashev was picking up. So that’s a type two civilization. Type three is galactic scale, a civilization that could use all the starlight in a galaxy. So where are we now? Remarkably, on a log scale. We’re at 0.7 of a type one.
Lex Fridman
So we’re not even type one?
So we’re not even type one?
Adam Frank
No, no, no. We’re not even type one, but according to… There was a paper written by a group that said, “Can we continue on our path? We’ll be at a type one at around 2300.”
No, no, no. We’re not even type one, but according to… There was a paper written by a group that said, “Can we continue on our path? We’ll be at a type one at around 2300.”
Lex Fridman
2300. So this is on a log scale?
2300. So this is on a log scale?
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So 0.7. So type one is about 10 to the 16th watts. Type two is 10 orders of magnitude larger than that, 10 to the 26th watts, and I think estimate for the galaxy is another 10 orders of magnitude.
So 0.7. So type one is about 10 to the 16th watts. Type two is 10 orders of magnitude larger than that, 10 to the 26th watts, and I think estimate for the galaxy is another 10 orders of magnitude.
Adam Frank
Yeah, because there’s a 100,000,000,000 star of order, 100,000,000 stars.
Yeah, because there’s a 100,000,000,000 star of order, 100,000,000 stars.
Lex Fridman
So that’s a lot.
So that’s a lot.
Adam Frank
That’s a lot energy.
That’s a lot energy.
Lex Fridman
Do you think humans ever get to type one?
Do you think humans ever get to type one?
Adam Frank
I think that there’s a problem with type one, which is that we already know about climate change. The effects of our harvesting energy to do the work of civilization is already changing the climate state, and that’s something that Kardashev couldn’t have recognized. There’s the first law of thermodynamics, which is just about the different forms of energy. Then there’s the second law, which is about when you use that energy, Kardashev wasn’t thinking about the second law. If you get all that energy and you use it, there is waste heat. You don’t get to use it all. Right? Second law tells you that if I have a tank of gasoline, I can only use a certain fraction of the energy in that tank, and the rest is going to go to heating up the engine block. So that second law tells you that you can only use so much energy before the climate state is like, “Uh-oh, sorry, it’s going to change on you.”
I think that there’s a problem with type one, which is that we already know about climate change. The effects of our harvesting energy to do the work of civilization is already changing the climate state, and that’s something that Kardashev couldn’t have recognized. There’s the first law of thermodynamics, which is just about the different forms of energy. Then there’s the second law, which is about when you use that energy, Kardashev wasn’t thinking about the second law. If you get all that energy and you use it, there is waste heat. You don’t get to use it all. Right? Second law tells you that if I have a tank of gasoline, I can only use a certain fraction of the energy in that tank, and the rest is going to go to heating up the engine block. So that second law tells you that you can only use so much energy before the climate state is like, “Uh-oh, sorry, it’s going to change on you.”
So there’s a way in which we probably can’t get to a type one without devastating the earth’s climate. The most important thing actually here is probably, this is why space becomes… So the colonization or settlement of space. If we have an idea that we’ve been working on for a while called service worlds, that at some point you probably move a lot of your industry off world. We’ve got Mercury, for example. There’s nothing on Mercury, there’s no life on Mercury. Why don’t you put your energy harvesting there? Because you can’t mess with the biosphere. The biosphere is more powerful than you are. And so there’s limits to how much energy we can harvest to do work on the earth without really adversely affecting the biosphere.
Lex Fridman
It does seem that the best response to the climate change is not to use less technology, but to invent better technology and to invent technology that avoids the destructive effects.
It does seem that the best response to the climate change is not to use less technology, but to invent better technology and to invent technology that avoids the destructive effects.
Adam Frank
This is the frontier where you are, and that was the topic of my last book, Light of the Stars. It’s like you have to do the astrobiology of the Anthropocene. You have to see the transition that we’re going through now of the Anthropocene on a planetary astrobiological framework. And that paper we were talking about with a 10 billion trillion worlds, that was actually in service of the work I was doing for this other book where I wanted to know how often do you go through an… Does every technological civilization trigger its own planetary crisis, its own climate Anthropocene crisis? And the answer we actually came up from doing models was like, yeah, probably. And then the question is, are you smart enough to figure out how to readjust what you’re doing technologically so that all boats rise? You want to figure out how to do this so that the biosphere becomes even more productive and healthy and resilient.
This is the frontier where you are, and that was the topic of my last book, Light of the Stars. It’s like you have to do the astrobiology of the Anthropocene. You have to see the transition that we’re going through now of the Anthropocene on a planetary astrobiological framework. And that paper we were talking about with a 10 billion trillion worlds, that was actually in service of the work I was doing for this other book where I wanted to know how often do you go through an… Does every technological civilization trigger its own planetary crisis, its own climate Anthropocene crisis? And the answer we actually came up from doing models was like, yeah, probably. And then the question is, are you smart enough to figure out how to readjust what you’re doing technologically so that all boats rise? You want to figure out how to do this so that the biosphere becomes even more productive and healthy and resilient.
So yeah, right. It’s the kind of technology. I think there’s probably absolutely limits on how much energy you can use, but how do you use that energy? And then also, getting off planet eventually. If you want to use 10 times more energy than that, you’re going to not going to do it on world.
Detecting aliens
Lex Fridman
So how do we detect alien type one, two, and three civilizations? So we’ve been kind of talking about basically type one civilization detection.
So how do we detect alien type one, two, and three civilizations? So we’ve been kind of talking about basically type one civilization detection.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Right,
Yeah. Right,
Lex Fridman
Maybe with the Dyson sphere, you start to get a little bit more type two, but it feels like if you have a type two civilization, it won’t be just the Dyson sphere.
Maybe with the Dyson sphere, you start to get a little bit more type two, but it feels like if you have a type two civilization, it won’t be just the Dyson sphere.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
It feels like that. Just for the same reason you mentioned climate change, but now at the star system level, they’re probably expanding, right? So how would you detect a type two?
It feels like that. Just for the same reason you mentioned climate change, but now at the star system level, they’re probably expanding, right? So how would you detect a type two?
Adam Frank
How about propulsion plumes? Right? If you’re expanding… No, no.
How about propulsion plumes? Right? If you’re expanding… No, no.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s great. That’s great.
Yeah, that’s great. That’s great.
Adam Frank
I literally just put in a NASA proposal now. Thomas Beatty, who’s joined us, he’s at the University of Wisconsin, has an idea to look for plumes. Right? If you have a solar system-wide civilization and you got space truckers going back and forth from Mars to… They’re doing the insettlest run, they’re accelerating and decelerating the whole way there. If you want to get to Mars in a couple of weeks, you have your fusion drive on the entire way out there. You flip and burn and have it on. So you also always have gravity. You have thrust gravity. So would those plumes be detectable? Because now you’ve got spaceships going all over the place and the odds that the plume is going to cross your field of view could become pretty high. So yeah, I think that’s one idea of looking for large-scale interplanetary, which is like when you’re getting to a type two.
I literally just put in a NASA proposal now. Thomas Beatty, who’s joined us, he’s at the University of Wisconsin, has an idea to look for plumes. Right? If you have a solar system-wide civilization and you got space truckers going back and forth from Mars to… They’re doing the insettlest run, they’re accelerating and decelerating the whole way there. If you want to get to Mars in a couple of weeks, you have your fusion drive on the entire way out there. You flip and burn and have it on. So you also always have gravity. You have thrust gravity. So would those plumes be detectable? Because now you’ve got spaceships going all over the place and the odds that the plume is going to cross your field of view could become pretty high. So yeah, I think that’s one idea of looking for large-scale interplanetary, which is like when you’re getting to a type two.
Another possibility is looking for the tailings of asteroid mining. This was an idea, it was a group at Harvard Smithsonian, that to be able to look for… If you’re really chewing up asteroids to build space habitats, there’d be dust particles left around and would they look different from just say the dust from just regular collisions?
Lex Fridman
So pollution of all different kinds.
So pollution of all different kinds.
Adam Frank
Pollution of all different kinds
Pollution of all different kinds
Lex Fridman
And trash also?
And trash also?
Adam Frank
Okay, so trash is an interesting idea when you come to the actual solar system. There’s a whole other field of technosignatures, which are things in the solar system. What if somebody came by 1,000,000 years ago and left some stuff? So the earth has been showing biosignatures for billions of years. A species like us, at our level, looking at earth, would’ve been able to know that earth had life on it, had a biosphere for billions of years. So maybe somebody sent something by a half a billion years ago. So this idea of looking say at the Moon for artifacts that have been there for a long time is something that a number of people are doing. We’re just working on a paper where we just calculated, this was super fun. We calculated how long would the lunar lander exist on the Moon before micrometeorites just chewed it down? How long would you be able to land on the Moon and go, “Oh, look, somebody was here and left some debris.”
Okay, so trash is an interesting idea when you come to the actual solar system. There’s a whole other field of technosignatures, which are things in the solar system. What if somebody came by 1,000,000 years ago and left some stuff? So the earth has been showing biosignatures for billions of years. A species like us, at our level, looking at earth, would’ve been able to know that earth had life on it, had a biosphere for billions of years. So maybe somebody sent something by a half a billion years ago. So this idea of looking say at the Moon for artifacts that have been there for a long time is something that a number of people are doing. We’re just working on a paper where we just calculated, this was super fun. We calculated how long would the lunar lander exist on the Moon before micrometeorites just chewed it down? How long would you be able to land on the Moon and go, “Oh, look, somebody was here and left some debris.”
So there’s this process called gardening, which is just the micrometeorite, constant rain of micrometeorites, and that’s where you get the lunar regolith. That fine powder on the Moon is because of this gardening. And it turns out it is literally hundreds of millions to billions of years-
Lex Fridman
Oh, nice.
Oh, nice.
Adam Frank
That the lunar lander will be visible.
That the lunar lander will be visible.
Lex Fridman
Oh, so we should be able to find artifacts.
Oh, so we should be able to find artifacts.
Adam Frank
If there are artifacts on there, and people have proposed doing this with artificial intelligence. The Moon has been mapped down to a couple of meters with various probes and all that data is sitting there. So why not use machine learning to look through all those things and look for anything that looks not like the lunar surface? And they did a test program where they gave the computer, I don’t know, 50 miles around the Apollo 11 or maybe it was Apollo 17 site, and it instantly was able to pull out the lander.
If there are artifacts on there, and people have proposed doing this with artificial intelligence. The Moon has been mapped down to a couple of meters with various probes and all that data is sitting there. So why not use machine learning to look through all those things and look for anything that looks not like the lunar surface? And they did a test program where they gave the computer, I don’t know, 50 miles around the Apollo 11 or maybe it was Apollo 17 site, and it instantly was able to pull out the lander.
Lex Fridman
The whole task of looking for anomaly, something that looks not like the lunar surface. You make it sound obvious, but it’s not exactly obvious. Detect something that doesn’t look right about this room?
The whole task of looking for anomaly, something that looks not like the lunar surface. You make it sound obvious, but it’s not exactly obvious. Detect something that doesn’t look right about this room?
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s actually really difficult.
It’s actually really difficult.
Adam Frank
Really difficult. It’s really difficult. And what’s cool, it’s a really information theoretic kind of proposal. You really have to use information theory to say, “What’s the background?” How do I define something that I can say, “That looks weird?”
Really difficult. It’s really difficult. And what’s cool, it’s a really information theoretic kind of proposal. You really have to use information theory to say, “What’s the background?” How do I define something that I can say, “That looks weird?”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, maybe when you’re looking at a spectrograph or something, it’s still like…
Yeah, maybe when you’re looking at a spectrograph or something, it’s still like…
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 01:45:00] or something, it’s going to look really weird potentially. We’re hypothesizing all the things that humans would build and how do we detect that.
[inaudible 01:45:00] or something, it’s going to look really weird potentially. We’re hypothesizing all the things that humans would build and how do we detect that.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
But that could be really weird stuff.
But that could be really weird stuff.
Adam Frank
That’s why there’s this emphasis now on these agnostic signatures. So, actually disequilibrium is a nice one. One way to define life is it is a system that is far from equilibrium, it’s alive, because as soon as it dies, it goes back to equilibrium. And so, you can look at all chemicals in an atmosphere, even if you don’t know whether these could be chemicals that you have no idea whether or not they have anything to do with life. But the degree of disequilibrium, the degree to which they show that that atmosphere has not, the chemicals have not all just gone down to, they’ve all reacted away to an equilibrium state. You can actually tell that in very general ways using what’s called the Gibbs free energy, and that’s a signature.
That’s why there’s this emphasis now on these agnostic signatures. So, actually disequilibrium is a nice one. One way to define life is it is a system that is far from equilibrium, it’s alive, because as soon as it dies, it goes back to equilibrium. And so, you can look at all chemicals in an atmosphere, even if you don’t know whether these could be chemicals that you have no idea whether or not they have anything to do with life. But the degree of disequilibrium, the degree to which they show that that atmosphere has not, the chemicals have not all just gone down to, they’ve all reacted away to an equilibrium state. You can actually tell that in very general ways using what’s called the Gibbs free energy, and that’s a signature.
If you see an atmosphere that is wildly out of equilibrium that indicates that there’s something happening on that planet biosphere or technosphere that is pumping gases into the atmosphere, that is keeping the whole system from relaxing.
Lex Fridman
So, is it possible we can detect anomalies in spacetime?
So, is it possible we can detect anomalies in spacetime?
Adam Frank
Well, you could detect, and there’s been some work on this with the Alcubierre drive, these proposals for warp drives, and we can talk about that later, I’m skeptical of those. Because it may really be possible, you just can’t go faster than the speed of light. But people have done work on what would be the signature of an Alcubierre drive? What would be the signature? Could you detect if you’re using a drive like that, then you certainly are distorting spacetime, which means any light that’s passing by, its trajectory has gotten altered because it had to pass through the distorted spacetime.
Well, you could detect, and there’s been some work on this with the Alcubierre drive, these proposals for warp drives, and we can talk about that later, I’m skeptical of those. Because it may really be possible, you just can’t go faster than the speed of light. But people have done work on what would be the signature of an Alcubierre drive? What would be the signature? Could you detect if you’re using a drive like that, then you certainly are distorting spacetime, which means any light that’s passing by, its trajectory has gotten altered because it had to pass through the distorted spacetime.
So yeah, there are possibilities along with that. One of the funny things, I don’t know if they’ve gotten past this, but somebody calculated the problem with the Alcubierre drive or this warp drive was that if you dropped out of warp, there would be this spray of gamma rays that would sterilize any planet in front of you. So, it’s like, “Well yeah, you probably don’t want to do that,” but that would be a great bios or techno signature, another planet obliterated.
Warp drives
Lex Fridman
So, you think it’s not possible to travel fast than the speed of light?
So, you think it’s not possible to travel fast than the speed of light?
Adam Frank
I wouldn’t say that. I wouldn’t say that, but what I think, if you look at the physics, we understand, every possibility for faster than light travel really relies on something that doesn’t exist. So, the cool thing is Einstein’s field equations, you can actually play with them, the equations are right there. You can add things to the right or left-hand side that allow you to get something like the Alcubierre drive. That was a metric that showed you like, “Oh, it’s a warped bubble.” It’s a warping of spacetime that moves through spacetime faster than the speed of light.
I wouldn’t say that. I wouldn’t say that, but what I think, if you look at the physics, we understand, every possibility for faster than light travel really relies on something that doesn’t exist. So, the cool thing is Einstein’s field equations, you can actually play with them, the equations are right there. You can add things to the right or left-hand side that allow you to get something like the Alcubierre drive. That was a metric that showed you like, “Oh, it’s a warped bubble.” It’s a warping of spacetime that moves through spacetime faster than the speed of light.
Because nothing can move across space faster than the speed of light, but spacetime itself can move faster than the speed of light. But here’s the problem with all of those proposals is they all need something. The thing you added, the little fictional term you added into the equations is something called exotic matter and it doesn’t exist. It’s really just something we dreamed up to make the equation to do what we wanted them to do. So, it’s a nice fiction but really right now, we live in this weird moment in history of the great acceleration where the technology we used now is completely different from the technology we used 10 years ago is remarkably different from the technology from 100 years ago.
But I remember playing Assassin’s Creed where everybody’s like, “What is it, it’s 1200?” And everybody’s like, “Stab, stab, stab.” And I was like, “Yeah, it’s a great game.” And then I got Assassin’s Creed II and it was 300 years later and everybody’s like, “Stab, stab, stab.” And it was like 300 years and the technology hadn’t changed and that was actually true for most of human history. You used your great-grandfather’s tools because there was no need to have any other new tools and you probably did his job. So, we could be fooled into thinking like, “Oh, technology’s going to go on forever, we’re always going to find new advances.”
As opposed to sometimes things just flatten out for a long time. So, you have to be careful about that bias that we have living in this time of great acceleration.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But also, it is a great acceleration and we also are not good at predicting what that entails if it does keep accelerating. So, for example, somebody like Eric Weinstein often talks about we underinvest in theoretical physics research. Basically, we’re trying too hard for traditional chemical propulsion on rockets versus trying to hack physics, warp drives and so on.
Yeah. But also, it is a great acceleration and we also are not good at predicting what that entails if it does keep accelerating. So, for example, somebody like Eric Weinstein often talks about we underinvest in theoretical physics research. Basically, we’re trying too hard for traditional chemical propulsion on rockets versus trying to hack physics, warp drives and so on.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Because it’s really hard to do space travel, and it seems like in the long arc of human history, if we survive the way to really travel across long distances is going to be some new totally new thing.
Because it’s really hard to do space travel, and it seems like in the long arc of human history, if we survive the way to really travel across long distances is going to be some new totally new thing.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
So, it’s not going to be an engineering problem, it’s going to be a physics problem-
So, it’s not going to be an engineering problem, it’s going to be a physics problem-
Adam Frank
A fundamental physics problem.
A fundamental physics problem.
Lex Fridman
Fundamental physics problem.
Fundamental physics problem.
Adam Frank
Yeah. I agree with that in principle, but I think there’s a lot of ideas out there. String theory, people have been playing with string theory now for 40 years, it’s not like there hasn’t been a lot of effort. And again, I’m not going to predict, I think it’s entirely possible that there’s incredible boundaries of physics that have yet to be poked through, in which case then all bets are off. Once you get fast interstellar travel, whoa, who knows what can happen? But I tend to be drawn to science fiction stories that take the speed of light seriously. What kind of civilization can you build where it takes 50 years to get to where you’re going and a 50 years back?
Yeah. I agree with that in principle, but I think there’s a lot of ideas out there. String theory, people have been playing with string theory now for 40 years, it’s not like there hasn’t been a lot of effort. And again, I’m not going to predict, I think it’s entirely possible that there’s incredible boundaries of physics that have yet to be poked through, in which case then all bets are off. Once you get fast interstellar travel, whoa, who knows what can happen? But I tend to be drawn to science fiction stories that take the speed of light seriously. What kind of civilization can you build where it takes 50 years to get to where you’re going and a 50 years back?
So, I don’t know. Yeah, there’s no way I’m going to say that we won’t get warp drives. But as of right now, it’s all fictional. It’s barely even a coherent concept.
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s also a really exciting possibility of hacking this whole thing by extending human lifespan or extending our notion of time and maybe as dark as to say, but the value of an individual human life versus the value of life from the perspective of generations.
Well, it’s also a really exciting possibility of hacking this whole thing by extending human lifespan or extending our notion of time and maybe as dark as to say, but the value of an individual human life versus the value of life from the perspective of generations.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, you can have something like a generational ship that travels for hundreds of thousands of years and you’re not sad that you’ll never see the destination because you have the value for the prolonged survival of humanity versus your own individual life.
So, you can have something like a generational ship that travels for hundreds of thousands of years and you’re not sad that you’ll never see the destination because you have the value for the prolonged survival of humanity versus your own individual life.
Adam Frank
Yeah. It’s a wild ethical question, isn’t it? That book I told you about Aurora, I love the book because it was such a inversion of the usual. Because I love science fiction, I’ve read so many generation ship stories. And they get to that planet, the planet turns out to be uninhabitable. It’s inhabited, but it’s uninhabitable for Earth because again, he has this idea of life is particular to their planets. So, they turn around and they come back, and then when they land, the main character goes, there’s still people who are arguing for more generation ships, and she goes, and she punches the guy out because she spent her whole life in a tube with this.
Yeah. It’s a wild ethical question, isn’t it? That book I told you about Aurora, I love the book because it was such a inversion of the usual. Because I love science fiction, I’ve read so many generation ship stories. And they get to that planet, the planet turns out to be uninhabitable. It’s inhabited, but it’s uninhabitable for Earth because again, he has this idea of life is particular to their planets. So, they turn around and they come back, and then when they land, the main character goes, there’s still people who are arguing for more generation ships, and she goes, and she punches the guy out because she spent her whole life in a tube with this.
I thought that was a really interesting inversion. The interesting thing about, we were talking about these space habitats.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Adam Frank
But if you really had a space habitat, not some super cramped, crappy, usual version of a century ship. But if you had these space habitats that were really like the O’Neill cylinders, they’re actually pretty nice places to live, put a thruster on those. Why keep them in the solar system? Maybe space is full of these traveling space habitats that are in some sense, they’re worlds in and of themselves.
But if you really had a space habitat, not some super cramped, crappy, usual version of a century ship. But if you had these space habitats that were really like the O’Neill cylinders, they’re actually pretty nice places to live, put a thruster on those. Why keep them in the solar system? Maybe space is full of these traveling space habitats that are in some sense, they’re worlds in and of themselves.
Lex Fridman
There’s the show Silo, which raises the question of basically, if you are putting on a generational ship, what do you tell the inhabitants of that ship? You might want to lie to them.
There’s the show Silo, which raises the question of basically, if you are putting on a generational ship, what do you tell the inhabitants of that ship? You might want to lie to them.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
You might want to tell them a story that they believe.
You might want to tell them a story that they believe.
Adam Frank
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Because there is a society, there’s human nature. It’s like how do you maintain a homeostasis of that little society? That’s a fascinating technical question, the social question, the psychology question
Because there is a society, there’s human nature. It’s like how do you maintain a homeostasis of that little society? That’s a fascinating technical question, the social question, the psychology question
Cryogenics
Adam Frank
The generation ship too, which I talked about in the book, the idea of also you talked about the extending human lifetimes or the stasis, the cryostasis, which is a mainstay of science fiction that you can basically put in suspended animation and such. None of these things we know are possible. But what’s so interesting, and this is why I love science fiction, the way it seeds ideas, all these ideas we’re going to talk about because they’ve been staples of science fiction for 50 years.
The generation ship too, which I talked about in the book, the idea of also you talked about the extending human lifetimes or the stasis, the cryostasis, which is a mainstay of science fiction that you can basically put in suspended animation and such. None of these things we know are possible. But what’s so interesting, and this is why I love science fiction, the way it seeds ideas, all these ideas we’re going to talk about because they’ve been staples of science fiction for 50 years.
Lex Fridman
The whole field of cryogenics.
The whole field of cryogenics.
Adam Frank
Yeah. Where are we at with that?
Yeah. Where are we at with that?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I wonder what the state of the art is for complex organism. Can you freeze? How long can you freeze? And then unfreeze maybe with bacteria you could do freeze.
Yeah. I wonder what the state of the art is for complex organism. Can you freeze? How long can you freeze? And then unfreeze maybe with bacteria you could do freeze.
Adam Frank
Oh, bacteria can last. This is the thing about panspermia, how long can a bacteria survive in a rock that’s been blasted? If there’s a comet impact across interstellar distances, that does seem to actually be possible. People have done those kinds of calculations, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. But a complex organism or multi-systems, with organs and such.
Oh, bacteria can last. This is the thing about panspermia, how long can a bacteria survive in a rock that’s been blasted? If there’s a comet impact across interstellar distances, that does seem to actually be possible. People have done those kinds of calculations, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. But a complex organism or multi-systems, with organs and such.
Lex Fridman
Also, what makes an organism? Which part do you want to preserve? Because maybe for humans, it seems like what makes a personality? It feels like you want to preserve a set of memories. If I woke up in a different body with the same memories, I pretty much, I would feel like I would be the same person.
Also, what makes an organism? Which part do you want to preserve? Because maybe for humans, it seems like what makes a personality? It feels like you want to preserve a set of memories. If I woke up in a different body with the same memories, I pretty much, I would feel like I would be the same person.
Adam Frank
Altered Carbon, that’s a great series. I think it’s on Netflix, that’s a really great series where that’s exactly the idea of sleeves. Everybody’s able to, you can re-sleeve in another body, and it raises exactly this question. It’s not the greatest cyberpunk, but it’s pretty good, it’s got some great action sequences too.
Altered Carbon, that’s a great series. I think it’s on Netflix, that’s a really great series where that’s exactly the idea of sleeves. Everybody’s able to, you can re-sleeve in another body, and it raises exactly this question. It’s not the greatest cyberpunk, but it’s pretty good, it’s got some great action sequences too.
Lex Fridman
As we get better and better advancements in large language models that are able to be fine-tuned on you, it raises a question because to me, they’ve already passed the Turing test as we traditionally have defined it. So, if there’s going to be an LLM that’s able to copy you in terms of language extremely well, it’s going to raise ethical and I don’t know, philosophical questions about what makes you, you. If there’s a thing that can talk exactly like you, what is the thing that makes you? It’s going to speak about your memories very effectively.
As we get better and better advancements in large language models that are able to be fine-tuned on you, it raises a question because to me, they’ve already passed the Turing test as we traditionally have defined it. So, if there’s going to be an LLM that’s able to copy you in terms of language extremely well, it’s going to raise ethical and I don’t know, philosophical questions about what makes you, you. If there’s a thing that can talk exactly like you, what is the thing that makes you? It’s going to speak about your memories very effectively.
Adam Frank
This leads us to, if we’re going to get to the blind spot. I am of the opinion, heretical in some camps that the brain is not the minimal structure for consciousness, it’s the whole body. It’s embodied and may actually, in some sense, it’s communities actually. So yeah, I could be wrong, but this is what this whole work that I did with Marcelo Gleiser and Evan Thompson, the philosophy of science. Which is interesting, because it leads to this question about, “Oh, maybe we should just download ourselves into computers.” That’s another story that one tells. I’m super skeptical about those, but that’s one of the narratives about interstellar travel.
This leads us to, if we’re going to get to the blind spot. I am of the opinion, heretical in some camps that the brain is not the minimal structure for consciousness, it’s the whole body. It’s embodied and may actually, in some sense, it’s communities actually. So yeah, I could be wrong, but this is what this whole work that I did with Marcelo Gleiser and Evan Thompson, the philosophy of science. Which is interesting, because it leads to this question about, “Oh, maybe we should just download ourselves into computers.” That’s another story that one tells. I’m super skeptical about those, but that’s one of the narratives about interstellar travel.
And that anybody we meet is going to be a machine anyway, whether it’s downloaded bodies or it’s just going to be artificial intelligence. There’s the whole idea of how long does biological evolution last? Maybe it’s a very short period before everybody goes to, or the machines take over and kill you, or it’s some hybrid.
What aliens look like
Lex Fridman
What do you think aliens look like? So, we talked about all the different kinds of bio signatures that might leave or techno signatures, but what would they look like when we show up? Are they going to have arms and legs? Are they going to be recognizable at all? Are they going to be carbon-based?
What do you think aliens look like? So, we talked about all the different kinds of bio signatures that might leave or techno signatures, but what would they look like when we show up? Are they going to have arms and legs? Are they going to be recognizable at all? Are they going to be carbon-based?
Adam Frank
Yeah. So, great question, and this question gets to the heart of thinking about life, about what life is. And this is the physical part of that, there’s also the informational part of it. But let’s just talk about the physical part of it, which is anything that we’re going to call life is probably going to work on Darwinian evolution. That’s the nice thing about Darwinian evolution, just like we know the laws of physics are general, the laws of Darwinian evolution are this logic, this basic logic that anything we’d reasonably call life probably has to operate under these kinds of principles.
Yeah. So, great question, and this question gets to the heart of thinking about life, about what life is. And this is the physical part of that, there’s also the informational part of it. But let’s just talk about the physical part of it, which is anything that we’re going to call life is probably going to work on Darwinian evolution. That’s the nice thing about Darwinian evolution, just like we know the laws of physics are general, the laws of Darwinian evolution are this logic, this basic logic that anything we’d reasonably call life probably has to operate under these kinds of principles.
And so, evolution’s about solving problems to survive that the environment presents. And the environment’s always going to present these problems in physical and chemical terms, so that you’d expect a balance between what we call convergence, evolutionary convergence and evolutionary contingency. So, if you’ve got to move along a surface, a hard surface and air, then the idea of some kind of jointed stick legs makes sense that you’re probably going to trigger that. If you look at Earth’s history multiple times, multiple lineages that had nothing to do with each other are going to solve the problem of getting towards energy sources using some kind of stick-like apparatus.
Lex Fridman
So, that’s about movement?
So, that’s about movement?
Adam Frank
Yeah. So, that’s one problem that has to be solved. The one problem that has to be solved is I got to get to food, right?
Yeah. So, that’s one problem that has to be solved. The one problem that has to be solved is I got to get to food, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Another problem is they got to get away from predators. You’ve seen wings, we’ve seen wings, the line that went through dinosaurs to birds involved wings, insects evolved wings, mammals evolved wings. If the gas is dense enough that a curved surface, if you move through the curved surface, it’s going to produce lift. Yeah, there you go, evolutionary trip on that. So, I think you can expect certain classes of solutions to the basic problems that life is going to be presented with stay alive, reproduce. But one of the weird things about with the UFO things is that you always see like, “Oh, they all look like humans, they’re just basically humans with triangular heads.” And that’s where we get to contingency.
Another problem is they got to get away from predators. You’ve seen wings, we’ve seen wings, the line that went through dinosaurs to birds involved wings, insects evolved wings, mammals evolved wings. If the gas is dense enough that a curved surface, if you move through the curved surface, it’s going to produce lift. Yeah, there you go, evolutionary trip on that. So, I think you can expect certain classes of solutions to the basic problems that life is going to be presented with stay alive, reproduce. But one of the weird things about with the UFO things is that you always see like, “Oh, they all look like humans, they’re just basically humans with triangular heads.” And that’s where we get to contingency.
So, what we’ve been talking about is convergence. You expect that evolution will converge on wings multiple times when presented with the problems that wings can solve. But contingency is accidents that you’ve got something that’s evolving a certain kind of wing, a leathery wing. And then the climate changes and they all die out, end of story or an asteroid, total accident, asteroid hits. And so, contingency accidents play also a huge role in evolution. And one of the things that lots of evolutionary biologists have talked about is the idea that if you ran the tape of Earth’s history over again, would you get the same creatures? Now, Stephen Jay Gould was of the opinion that no way, you wouldn’t find anything on Earth that resembled any species today.
They’ve done experiments actually on this with E. coli. You take a bunch of E. coli, you let them evolve for a while, you take a bunch of them out, freeze them, let one, let that population continue to evolve, the other one’s frozen. Now, started over again with the frozen. And it seems to be that contingency tends to win. At least from what we can tell, that’s not a hard result, but in those experiments, what you find is that accidents really do matter. And this is important, so yes, you should expect legs or jointed sticks, how many joints they’re going to be? Anybody’s guess.
Do you expect humanoids, things with a sensing apparatus on top of a shoulder with two arms and two legs? That’s probably a pretty random set of occurrences that led to that.
Lex Fridman
I guess what is a brain versus the nervous system? Where is most of the cognition competition going on?
I guess what is a brain versus the nervous system? Where is most of the cognition competition going on?
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
You could see that in organisms. Actually, I don’t know how the brain evolved. Why does it have to be in one place?
You could see that in organisms. Actually, I don’t know how the brain evolved. Why does it have to be in one place?
Adam Frank
It doesn’t have to be. So, my favorite word, word of the day is liquid brains. This idea of distributed cognition, which fascinating idea, and we’ve come to understand how much distributed cognition there is. Obviously, you social animals like termites, and ants, that’s an example of distributed cognition, the organism is the whole colony. This is one thing that’s been really interesting in the state of the study for aliens, is that when we’ve come to recognize that human intelligence, the kinds of things that go into intelligence are distributed all across the biosphere. Lots of different examples of things show various pieces of what we have. Jason Wright described it as a deck of cards. The cards are all there, we got the hand that actually led to the technological progress that we see. But the basic idea of using tools, the basic idea of recognizing each other eye to eye, all the things that we define as intelligence. You can find many places in many other places across many other lineages across the earth. So, they could be very, very different with something like, yeah, maybe the hive mind idea or bacterial colonies that actually managed to come to their own version of high cognition.
It doesn’t have to be. So, my favorite word, word of the day is liquid brains. This idea of distributed cognition, which fascinating idea, and we’ve come to understand how much distributed cognition there is. Obviously, you social animals like termites, and ants, that’s an example of distributed cognition, the organism is the whole colony. This is one thing that’s been really interesting in the state of the study for aliens, is that when we’ve come to recognize that human intelligence, the kinds of things that go into intelligence are distributed all across the biosphere. Lots of different examples of things show various pieces of what we have. Jason Wright described it as a deck of cards. The cards are all there, we got the hand that actually led to the technological progress that we see. But the basic idea of using tools, the basic idea of recognizing each other eye to eye, all the things that we define as intelligence. You can find many places in many other places across many other lineages across the earth. So, they could be very, very different with something like, yeah, maybe the hive mind idea or bacterial colonies that actually managed to come to their own version of high cognition.
Lex Fridman
Well, I wonder if we stretch out time across 10s, 20 billion years, whether there’s an Darwinian evolution stops working at some point in terms of the biology or the chemistry of the organisms, and it switches to ideas for example. It’s much more rapidly you’re operating maybe, I guess it’s a kind of Darwinian evolution on the space of memes or whatever, as [inaudible 02:02:36]-
Well, I wonder if we stretch out time across 10s, 20 billion years, whether there’s an Darwinian evolution stops working at some point in terms of the biology or the chemistry of the organisms, and it switches to ideas for example. It’s much more rapidly you’re operating maybe, I guess it’s a kind of Darwinian evolution on the space of memes or whatever, as [inaudible 02:02:36]-
Adam Frank
Technology seems to operate, but certainly markets can operate in ways that look very Darwinian.
Technology seems to operate, but certainly markets can operate in ways that look very Darwinian.
Lex Fridman
So, basically a planet is working hard to get to the first kind of organism that’s able to be a nice platform for ideas to compete.
So, basically a planet is working hard to get to the first kind of organism that’s able to be a nice platform for ideas to compete.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then it stops evolving there, and then these ideas that take off.
And then it stops evolving there, and then these ideas that take off.
Adam Frank
Right. Because yeah, cultural Lex it’s true. It’s amazing that cultural evolution totally disconnects from the Darwinian process. But I’d be careful to say that a planet is working hard to do this. Because really looking at us, what we think of as ideas and culture, and it’s quite possible we’re going to make it another 200 years, and this is gone because it actually wasn’t a very good idea long-term, we just don’t know.
Right. Because yeah, cultural Lex it’s true. It’s amazing that cultural evolution totally disconnects from the Darwinian process. But I’d be careful to say that a planet is working hard to do this. Because really looking at us, what we think of as ideas and culture, and it’s quite possible we’re going to make it another 200 years, and this is gone because it actually wasn’t a very good idea long-term, we just don’t know.
Lex Fridman
So, maybe the idea generation organism is actually the thing that destroys.
So, maybe the idea generation organism is actually the thing that destroys.
Adam Frank
Not the biosphere, because again, but it destroys itself. It may not be very long- term, it may be very potent for a short period of time but that it’s not sustainable. It doesn’t become, like we were talking about before, mature. It’s very hard to make it into integrated into a mature bio/technosphere. And of course, evolution that is not working for anything. Well, here’s the actually interesting thing, so people are very much evolutionary biologists will get their hair will stand on end if you start talking about evolution, having a purpose or anything.
Not the biosphere, because again, but it destroys itself. It may not be very long- term, it may be very potent for a short period of time but that it’s not sustainable. It doesn’t become, like we were talking about before, mature. It’s very hard to make it into integrated into a mature bio/technosphere. And of course, evolution that is not working for anything. Well, here’s the actually interesting thing, so people are very much evolutionary biologists will get their hair will stand on end if you start talking about evolution, having a purpose or anything.
But the very interesting thing about purpose is that once you do get to a idea generating species or collective organism, yeah, then all bets are off and there is goals, there is teleology. Now suddenly, absolutely, there’s a direction implied. So that’s a cool interesting thing that once you get to that, evolution stops being goalless and directionless and suddenly, yeah, we’re the ones who supply or any kind of creature like us has an absolute direction that way they decide on.
Lex Fridman
Although you could argue that from a perspective of the entire human civilization, we’re also directionless. We have a sense that there’s a direction in this cluster of humans.
Although you could argue that from a perspective of the entire human civilization, we’re also directionless. We have a sense that there’s a direction in this cluster of humans.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then there’s another cluster has a different sense of direction, there’s all kinds of religions that are competing. There’s different ideologies that are competing.
And then there’s another cluster has a different sense of direction, there’s all kinds of religions that are competing. There’s different ideologies that are competing.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And when you just zoom out across, if we survive across thousands of years, it will seem directionless. It will seem like a pinball.
And when you just zoom out across, if we survive across thousands of years, it will seem directionless. It will seem like a pinball.
Adam Frank
It’s an unholy mess. But at some point, the expansion into the solar system say, that would be both direction. Depending on how you look at it, it was directional. There was a decision that the collective of human beings made to like anti-accrete, to start spreading out into the solar system. So, that was definitely a goal there that may have been reached in some crazy nonlinear way, but it still a goal was set and it was achieved.
It’s an unholy mess. But at some point, the expansion into the solar system say, that would be both direction. Depending on how you look at it, it was directional. There was a decision that the collective of human beings made to like anti-accrete, to start spreading out into the solar system. So, that was definitely a goal there that may have been reached in some crazy nonlinear way, but it still a goal was set and it was achieved.
Alien contact
Lex Fridman
If there’s advanced civilizations out there, what do you think is the proper protocol for interacting with them? Do you think they would be peaceful? Do you think they would be warlike? What do we do next? We detect the civilizations through all the technosignatures we’ve been talking about, maybe direct imaging, maybe there’s really strong signal. We come up with a strategy of how to actually get there.
If there’s advanced civilizations out there, what do you think is the proper protocol for interacting with them? Do you think they would be peaceful? Do you think they would be warlike? What do we do next? We detect the civilizations through all the technosignatures we’ve been talking about, maybe direct imaging, maybe there’s really strong signal. We come up with a strategy of how to actually get there.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But then the general says, they always do, the military industrial complex-
But then the general says, they always do, the military industrial complex-
Adam Frank
We’ve watched that movie.
We’ve watched that movie.
Lex Fridman
What kind of rockets and do we bring rockets?
What kind of rockets and do we bring rockets?
Adam Frank
Right. Well, this general question also leads to many messaging, extraterrestrial intelligence, and I’m definitely of the opinion of you should be very careful. I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad idea to have your head below the grass. The people who advocate like, “Oh yeah, we should be sending powerful messages that are easily detectable into interstellar space.” I’m like, “Why would you?” Because we just don’t know, I’m not going to say they are warlike. I’m not going to say they’re not warlike, I have no idea. But we sure as hell, well, first of all, who gets to decide that? The idea that a bunch of astronomers who happen to have a radio telescope, Who Speaks for Earth, which I think was a great book somebody wrote.
Right. Well, this general question also leads to many messaging, extraterrestrial intelligence, and I’m definitely of the opinion of you should be very careful. I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad idea to have your head below the grass. The people who advocate like, “Oh yeah, we should be sending powerful messages that are easily detectable into interstellar space.” I’m like, “Why would you?” Because we just don’t know, I’m not going to say they are warlike. I’m not going to say they’re not warlike, I have no idea. But we sure as hell, well, first of all, who gets to decide that? The idea that a bunch of astronomers who happen to have a radio telescope, Who Speaks for Earth, which I think was a great book somebody wrote.
So, definitely we should be cautious, I would say, because we just have zero information. And the idea, you used to have this idea of, well, if they’re advanced, they’ve managed to survive. So of course, they’re going to be wearing togas and be singing kumbaya, but I just wouldn’t assume that. It’s also possible though that their cognitive structure is so different that we’re not even living in the same universe in a certain way. I think we have to be prepared for that. We may not even be able to recognize each other in some way as cognizing beings. One of my favorite movies is Arrival, I don’t know if you’ve ever seen that one.
I really love that one because they literally, they have a different language. They have a different cognitive structure in terms of their language, and they’re literally living in a different physics.
Lex Fridman
Different physics, different language, different everything. But in the case of Arrival, it can at least recognize that they’re there.
Different physics, different language, different everything. But in the case of Arrival, it can at least recognize that they’re there.
Adam Frank
And they managed to cross the language barrier. Yeah.
And they managed to cross the language barrier. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But that’s, both sides have an interest in communicating, which you suppose that an advanced civilization would have a curiosity. Because how do you become advanced without curiosity about the mysteries about the other.
But that’s, both sides have an interest in communicating, which you suppose that an advanced civilization would have a curiosity. Because how do you become advanced without curiosity about the mysteries about the other.
Adam Frank
But also, if they’re long-lived, they may just be like, “We’re not even interested. Say 10 million years ago, we were really interested in this, in communicating with you youngins, but now we’re not at all.” And that’s just one of the beauties of this again, is how to think about this systematically because you’re so far past the hairy edge of our experience of what we know that you want to think about it. You don’t want to be like, “Don’t know, can’t say anything,” because that’s not fun. But you also have to systematically go after your own biases. So, one of the things I loved about Arrival too was Carl Sagan always had this idea, “We’ll teach them math, we’ll teach them our math, then they’ll teach us their math, and then we’ll be telling each other, knock-knock jokes and swapping cures for cancer.”
But also, if they’re long-lived, they may just be like, “We’re not even interested. Say 10 million years ago, we were really interested in this, in communicating with you youngins, but now we’re not at all.” And that’s just one of the beauties of this again, is how to think about this systematically because you’re so far past the hairy edge of our experience of what we know that you want to think about it. You don’t want to be like, “Don’t know, can’t say anything,” because that’s not fun. But you also have to systematically go after your own biases. So, one of the things I loved about Arrival too was Carl Sagan always had this idea, “We’ll teach them math, we’ll teach them our math, then they’ll teach us their math, and then we’ll be telling each other, knock-knock jokes and swapping cures for cancer.”
And in the movie, they send a Carl Sagan guy in and a linguist, and the Carl Sagan guy fails immediately. And it’s the linguist who understands that language is actually embodied. Language is not just something that happens in your head, it’s actually the whole experience and she’s the one who breaks through. And it just points to the idea that how utterly different the cognitive structures of a different species should be. So somehow, we have to figure out how to think about it, but be so careful of our biases or figure out a systematic way to break through our biases and not just make science fiction movies. You know what I mean?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Speaking of biases, do you think aliens have visited Earth? You’ve mentioned that they could have visited and started civilizations and we wouldn’t even know about it if it was 100 million years ago. How can we even begin to answer this question, whether-
Yeah. Speaking of biases, do you think aliens have visited Earth? You’ve mentioned that they could have visited and started civilizations and we wouldn’t even know about it if it was 100 million years ago. How can we even begin to answer this question, whether-
Adam Frank
Got to look, got to figure out ways to look. So, it’s not high on my list of things that I think are probable, but it certainly, it needs to be explored. And unless you look, you never know. So, looking on the moon, where would we find if aliens had passed through the solar system anytime in the last 3 billion years, where might we find artifacts? Where might artifacts still be around? Earth? Probably not because of weathering and resurfacing. The moon’s a good place. Certain kinds of orbits, maybe they parked a probe in an orbit that was stable. So, you got to figure out which orbits actually you could put something there and it’ll last for a billion years.
Got to look, got to figure out ways to look. So, it’s not high on my list of things that I think are probable, but it certainly, it needs to be explored. And unless you look, you never know. So, looking on the moon, where would we find if aliens had passed through the solar system anytime in the last 3 billion years, where might we find artifacts? Where might artifacts still be around? Earth? Probably not because of weathering and resurfacing. The moon’s a good place. Certain kinds of orbits, maybe they parked a probe in an orbit that was stable. So, you got to figure out which orbits actually you could put something there and it’ll last for a billion years.
So, those are the kind of questions. Like I said, it’s not high on my list of thinking this could happen, but it could happen. Unless you look, you don’t know.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of biases, what about if aliens visiting Earth is the elephant in the room? Meaning the potential of aliens, say seeding life on earth?
Speaking of biases, what about if aliens visiting Earth is the elephant in the room? Meaning the potential of aliens, say seeding life on earth?
Adam Frank
You mean in that directed panspermia, [inaudible 02:10:33]-
You mean in that directed panspermia, [inaudible 02:10:33]-
Lex Fridman
Directed panspermia.
Directed panspermia.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Or seeding some aspect of the evolution.
Or seeding some aspect of the evolution.
Adam Frank
Like 2001.
Like 2001.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
Yeah. It’s a great story, but always with Occam’s razor or whatever with science. If I can answer that question without that extra very detailed hypothesis, then I should. And the idea that evolution is a natural process, that’s what I would go for first. That just seems it’s so much easier to do it that way than adding, because it’s kind of a duo sex machina thing of like, “Oh, then the aliens came down and they solved that problem that you’re trying to solve by just coming down and putting their finger on the scales.”
Yeah. It’s a great story, but always with Occam’s razor or whatever with science. If I can answer that question without that extra very detailed hypothesis, then I should. And the idea that evolution is a natural process, that’s what I would go for first. That just seems it’s so much easier to do it that way than adding, because it’s kind of a duo sex machina thing of like, “Oh, then the aliens came down and they solved that problem that you’re trying to solve by just coming down and putting their finger on the scales.”
Lex Fridman
So, to you, the origin of life is a pretty simple thing that doesn’t require an alien?
So, to you, the origin of life is a pretty simple thing that doesn’t require an alien?
Adam Frank
I wouldn’t say that, it’s not a simple thing. Because all you’re doing is kicking the can down the road. The aliens formed, right? So, you’re just saying like, ” All right, I’m just kicking the can down the road to the aliens. What was their abiogenesis event?
I wouldn’t say that, it’s not a simple thing. Because all you’re doing is kicking the can down the road. The aliens formed, right? So, you’re just saying like, ” All right, I’m just kicking the can down the road to the aliens. What was their abiogenesis event?
Lex Fridman
Well, so from a different perspective, I’m just saying, it seems to me that there’s obviously advanced civilizations everywhere throughout the galaxy and through the universe from the Drake equation perspective. And then if I was an alien, what would I do? I’ve gotten a chance to learn about the uncontacted tribes in the Amazon. I recently went to the Amazon, and you get to understand how they function and how the humans in the Amazon, they’re in contact with the civilized world, how they interact with the uncontacted tribes. First of all, the uncontacted tribes are very violent towards the outside world, but everybody else tried to stay away from them. They try to protect them, don’t talk about them, don’t talk about their location and all this kind of stuff.
Well, so from a different perspective, I’m just saying, it seems to me that there’s obviously advanced civilizations everywhere throughout the galaxy and through the universe from the Drake equation perspective. And then if I was an alien, what would I do? I’ve gotten a chance to learn about the uncontacted tribes in the Amazon. I recently went to the Amazon, and you get to understand how they function and how the humans in the Amazon, they’re in contact with the civilized world, how they interact with the uncontacted tribes. First of all, the uncontacted tribes are very violent towards the outside world, but everybody else tried to stay away from them. They try to protect them, don’t talk about them, don’t talk about their location and all this kind of stuff.
And I’ve begun to internalize and understand that perspective of why you’re doing that. And if I was an alien civilization, I probably would be doing a similar kind of thing. And of course, there’s always the teenager or the troll who’s going to start messing with this stuff or the scientists.
Adam Frank
Yeah, right.
Yeah, right.
Lex Fridman
And so, from our perspective, yes. And if you’re in the Truman Show like Occam’s razor, but also the Occam’s razor from the perspective of the alien civilization, we have to have the humility to understand that that interaction will be extremely difficult to detect, that it would not be obvious.
And so, from our perspective, yes. And if you’re in the Truman Show like Occam’s razor, but also the Occam’s razor from the perspective of the alien civilization, we have to have the humility to understand that that interaction will be extremely difficult to detect, that it would not be obvious.
Adam Frank
Right. I understand the logic of what you’re saying, but the problem for me with that is that first you have to assume that alien civilizations are common, which I’m not sure about it, that most of them may be dead or they’re not. While I think that life is common, and again, this is just my biases. So now, the problem is how do we sort out the biases we’re bringing or the assumptions we’re bringing in from the causal chain that comes out of that? I would first want to try and do this without, if we’re looking at the origin of life or the evolution of life on Earth. I’d want to do it just on its own without asking for this other layer because it requires a bunch of these other assumptions which also have their own breaking of causal chains.
Right. I understand the logic of what you’re saying, but the problem for me with that is that first you have to assume that alien civilizations are common, which I’m not sure about it, that most of them may be dead or they’re not. While I think that life is common, and again, this is just my biases. So now, the problem is how do we sort out the biases we’re bringing or the assumptions we’re bringing in from the causal chain that comes out of that? I would first want to try and do this without, if we’re looking at the origin of life or the evolution of life on Earth. I’d want to do it just on its own without asking for this other layer because it requires a bunch of these other assumptions which also have their own breaking of causal chains.
Because the idea that when you ask, what would you do if you were an alien? But again, alien minds could be so unbelievably different that they wouldn’t even recognize the question you just posed.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Adam Frank
Because it’s just like we have a very particular cognitive structure or cognitive, and we’re very governed by, even if you went and talked to, this is an interesting thing to think about. If I could suddenly magically appear 100,000 years ago and talked to a hunter-gatherer about their worldview and their motivations, I might find something that, or no resemblance to things that I think are sort of, “Oh, that’s what naturally humans do.”
Because it’s just like we have a very particular cognitive structure or cognitive, and we’re very governed by, even if you went and talked to, this is an interesting thing to think about. If I could suddenly magically appear 100,000 years ago and talked to a hunter-gatherer about their worldview and their motivations, I might find something that, or no resemblance to things that I think are sort of, “Oh, that’s what naturally humans do.”
Lex Fridman
Well, let me ask you this question. Let’s together do the thought experience.
Well, let me ask you this question. Let’s together do the thought experience.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
If we either create a time machine that allows us to travel back and to talk to them.
If we either create a time machine that allows us to travel back and to talk to them.
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Or we discover maybe a primitive alien civilization on a nearby star system, what would we do?
Or we discover maybe a primitive alien civilization on a nearby star system, what would we do?
Adam Frank
Yeah. I think that’s a great question. It’s interesting how that even brings up the ethical questions. Let’s say that we’d have to first sort out what are the consequences for them and what do we feel our ethical responsibilities are to them?
Yeah. I think that’s a great question. It’s interesting how that even brings up the ethical questions. Let’s say that we’d have to first sort out what are the consequences for them and what do we feel our ethical responsibilities are to them?
Lex Fridman
And also, sorry, from a capitalist perspective, what are we to gain from this interaction?
And also, sorry, from a capitalist perspective, what are we to gain from this interaction?
Adam Frank
Right. You look at the way the missionaries, missionaries had these interactions because they thought converting them to whatever religion they were was the most important, that’s what the gain was. So, from our perspective, we’d have to sort that out. I think given if we’re doing this thought experiment, we are curious, and I think eventually we’d want to reach out to them.
Right. You look at the way the missionaries, missionaries had these interactions because they thought converting them to whatever religion they were was the most important, that’s what the gain was. So, from our perspective, we’d have to sort that out. I think given if we’re doing this thought experiment, we are curious, and I think eventually we’d want to reach out to them.
Lex Fridman
I think when you say we, let’s start with the people in this room, right?
I think when you say we, let’s start with the people in this room, right?
Adam Frank
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I wonder who the dominant forces are in the world, because I think there’s a lot of people, the military they’ll probably move first so they can steal whatever advantage they can from this new discovery so they can hurt China or China hurt America. That’s one perspective. Then there’s the capitalist school will see how the benefits and the costs here, and how can I make money off of this? There’s opportunity here, there’s gold in them hills. And I wonder, and I think the scientist is just not going to, unlike the movies-
I wonder who the dominant forces are in the world, because I think there’s a lot of people, the military they’ll probably move first so they can steal whatever advantage they can from this new discovery so they can hurt China or China hurt America. That’s one perspective. Then there’s the capitalist school will see how the benefits and the costs here, and how can I make money off of this? There’s opportunity here, there’s gold in them hills. And I wonder, and I think the scientist is just not going to, unlike the movies-
Adam Frank
We’re not going to get much say.
We’re not going to get much say.
Lex Fridman
They’re going to put them-
They’re going to put them-
Adam Frank
“Hey guys, wait a minute.”
“Hey guys, wait a minute.”
Lex Fridman
They would engage probably. Just as a human society as we are now, we would engage and we would be detectable, I think.
They would engage probably. Just as a human society as we are now, we would engage and we would be detectable, I think.
Adam Frank
In our engagement.
In our engagement.
Lex Fridman
In our engagement.
In our engagement.
Adam Frank
Yeah, probably.
Yeah, probably.
Lex Fridman
So, using that trivial bias logic, it just feels like aliens would need to be engaging in a very obvious way. Just brings up that old direct for me paradox for me. What do you make of all the UFO sightings?
So, using that trivial bias logic, it just feels like aliens would need to be engaging in a very obvious way. Just brings up that old direct for me paradox for me. What do you make of all the UFO sightings?
UFO sightings
Adam Frank
I am all in favor of an open, agnostic, transparent, scientific investigation of UFOs and UAPs. But the idea that there’s any data that we have that links UFOs and UAPs to non-human technology, I just think the standards, none of what is claimed to be the data lives up to the standards of evidence. So, let’s just take a moment on that idea of standards of evidence, because I made a big deal about this both in the book and elsewhere whenever I talk about this. So, what people have to understand about science is we are really, our scientists, we are really mean to each other, we are brutal to each other.
I am all in favor of an open, agnostic, transparent, scientific investigation of UFOs and UAPs. But the idea that there’s any data that we have that links UFOs and UAPs to non-human technology, I just think the standards, none of what is claimed to be the data lives up to the standards of evidence. So, let’s just take a moment on that idea of standards of evidence, because I made a big deal about this both in the book and elsewhere whenever I talk about this. So, what people have to understand about science is we are really, our scientists, we are really mean to each other, we are brutal to each other.
Because we have this thing that we call standards of evidence, and it’s the idea of you have a piece of evidence that you want to link to a claim. And under what conditions can you say, “Oh, look, I’ve got evidence of this claim X, Y, and Z.” And in science, we are so mean to each other about whether or not that piece of evidence lives up to the standards that we have. And we spent 400 years determining what those standards are, and that is why cell phones work. If you didn’t have super rigorous standards about what you think that’s, “Oh, this little antenna, I’ve invented a new kind of antenna that I can slip into the cell phone and I can show you that it works.”
If you didn’t have these standards, every cell phone would be a brick. And when it comes to UFOs and UAPs, the evidence you have and the claim that though this shows that we are being visited by non-human, advanced civilization just doesn’t even come close to the same standards. I’m going to have to obey or whatever live under. If my team, the group I work with is one of them says, “Look, we’ve discovered and he wants to announce that, oh, we’ve discovered a technosignature on an alien planet.” We’re going to get shredded as we expect to be, we expect to be beaten up. And the UAP, UFO community should expect the same thing. You don’t get a pass because it’s a really cool topic.
So, that’s where I am right now. I just don’t think any of the evidence is even close to anything that could support that claim.
Lex Fridman
Well, I generally assign a lot of value to anecdotal evidence from pilots. Not scientific value, but just like it’s always nice to get anecdotal evidence as a first step. Because I was like, “I wonder if there’s something there.” But unfortunately, with this topic, there’s so much excitement around that there’s a lot of people that are basically trying to make money off of it. There’s hoaxes all this kind of stuff. So, even if there’s some signal, there’s just so much noise it’s very difficult to operate with. So, how do we get better signal? So, you’ve talked about if we wanted to really search for UFOs on Earth and maybe detect things like weird physics, what kind of instruments would we be using?
Well, I generally assign a lot of value to anecdotal evidence from pilots. Not scientific value, but just like it’s always nice to get anecdotal evidence as a first step. Because I was like, “I wonder if there’s something there.” But unfortunately, with this topic, there’s so much excitement around that there’s a lot of people that are basically trying to make money off of it. There’s hoaxes all this kind of stuff. So, even if there’s some signal, there’s just so much noise it’s very difficult to operate with. So, how do we get better signal? So, you’ve talked about if we wanted to really search for UFOs on Earth and maybe detect things like weird physics, what kind of instruments would we be using?
Adam Frank
Yeah, so in the book, I talked about the idea that this is really stupid, but you want to look up, you want to look down and you want to look all around.
Yeah, so in the book, I talked about the idea that this is really stupid, but you want to look up, you want to look down and you want to look all around.
Lex Fridman
I think that’s brilliant. It’s simple, not stupid. It’s like literally.
I think that’s brilliant. It’s simple, not stupid. It’s like literally.
Adam Frank
Yeah, right. So, you want to do ground-based detectors, upward-looking, ground-based detectors of the kind we’re already building for meteors, for tracking meteors. You want to have space-based detectors, put them on satellites, this is what the NASA UAP panel was thinking about. And then probably on, we have lots of people in the sky there should be detectors on the planes, or at least some kind of alert system that if a pilot says, “Oh, look, I’m seeing something I don’t understand.” Boop presses the red button, and that triggers the ground.
Yeah, right. So, you want to do ground-based detectors, upward-looking, ground-based detectors of the kind we’re already building for meteors, for tracking meteors. You want to have space-based detectors, put them on satellites, this is what the NASA UAP panel was thinking about. And then probably on, we have lots of people in the sky there should be detectors on the planes, or at least some kind of alert system that if a pilot says, “Oh, look, I’m seeing something I don’t understand.” Boop presses the red button, and that triggers the ground.
Adam Frank
I’m seeing something I don’t understand. Boop. Presses the red button and that triggers the ground-based and space-based data collectors. And then the data collectors themselves, this is something that people really don’t understand and it’s so important. In order to actually do science with anything, the data you have, you have to understand where it came from down to the nth degree. You have to know how that camera behaves in a bunch of different wavelengths. You have to have characterized that. You have to know what the software does, what the limits of the software are possible. You have to know what happened to the camera. Was it refurbished recently? In every spectral wavelength in all of its data collection and processing, you have to know all of those steps and have them all characterized because especially if you want to claim like, “Oh my God, I saw something, take a right-hand turn at Mach-500.” Right?
I’m seeing something I don’t understand. Boop. Presses the red button and that triggers the ground-based and space-based data collectors. And then the data collectors themselves, this is something that people really don’t understand and it’s so important. In order to actually do science with anything, the data you have, you have to understand where it came from down to the nth degree. You have to know how that camera behaves in a bunch of different wavelengths. You have to have characterized that. You have to know what the software does, what the limits of the software are possible. You have to know what happened to the camera. Was it refurbished recently? In every spectral wavelength in all of its data collection and processing, you have to know all of those steps and have them all characterized because especially if you want to claim like, “Oh my God, I saw something, take a right-hand turn at Mach-500.” Right?
You better have all of that nailed down before you make that kind of claim. So we have to have characterized detectors looking up, down, and maybe on planes themselves, we need a rational search strategy. So let’s say you want to lay out these ground-based detectors. Where do you put them? Right? There’s only so much money in the world, so do you want to put them near places where you’ve seen a lot of things beforehand or do you want to have them try and do sparse coverage of the entire country?
And then you need the data analysts analysis, right? You’re going to have so much data, so many false positives or false triggering that you need a way of sorting through enormous amounts of data and figuring out what you’re going to throw out and what you’re going to keep, and all of these things we’re used to doing in other scientific enterprises. And without that, if we don’t do that, we’re going to be having the same damn argument about these things for the next 100 years.
Lex Fridman
But if I asked you, I give you $1 trillion and asked you to allocate to one place looking out, SETI or looking at Earth, should you allocate it?
But if I asked you, I give you $1 trillion and asked you to allocate to one place looking out, SETI or looking at Earth, should you allocate it?
Adam Frank
Oh God, looking out. Looking out. Because that’s the, as I always like to say, here’s my codification of this. If you said, “Hey, Adam, I’d like to find some Nebraskans.” And I said, “Oh, good, let’s go to the Himalayas.” You’d be like, “Why am I going there?” I’m like, “Well, maybe there’s some Himalayas, some Nebraskans in Himalayas.” You’d say, “No, no. Let’s go to Nebraska.” If we’re looking for aliens, why don’t we look on alien planets where they live? We have that technology now as opposed to the bucket of assumptions that you have to come up with in order to say like, “Oh, they’re here right now. They just happen to be here right now.” And also the very important thing, I called this the high beam argument to deal with the UFO stuff, you have to answer these weird, irrational things that are happening.
Oh God, looking out. Looking out. Because that’s the, as I always like to say, here’s my codification of this. If you said, “Hey, Adam, I’d like to find some Nebraskans.” And I said, “Oh, good, let’s go to the Himalayas.” You’d be like, “Why am I going there?” I’m like, “Well, maybe there’s some Himalayas, some Nebraskans in Himalayas.” You’d say, “No, no. Let’s go to Nebraska.” If we’re looking for aliens, why don’t we look on alien planets where they live? We have that technology now as opposed to the bucket of assumptions that you have to come up with in order to say like, “Oh, they’re here right now. They just happen to be here right now.” And also the very important thing, I called this the high beam argument to deal with the UFO stuff, you have to answer these weird, irrational things that are happening.
Like, okay, there’s an advanced civilization that is visiting Earth regularly. They don’t want to be detected. They’ve got super powerful technology, but they really suck at using it because we keep seeing them, we keep seeing them, but then they disappear. I mean, explain to me what rational world that works under. So there’s that whole sort of argument. You’ve got to explain why if they want to stay hidden, are they so bad at it? So that’s why I take that level of difficulty and then I put it on top of where should I look? I should look at where they’re from. That makes me want to look at do the telescopic stuff.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think the more likely explanation is either the sensors are not working correctly or it’s secret military technology being tested.
Yeah, I think the more likely explanation is either the sensors are not working correctly or it’s secret military technology being tested.
Adam Frank
Absolutely. I mean, listen, that’s why again, I think UAP, absolutely UAP should be studied scientifically, but if I had to make a bet and it’s just a bet, I would say this is pure state adversary stuff. When I did, I did a New York Times op-ed for this in 2021, which blew up, and so I had a lot of people talking to me. While I was doing that. I sort of looked at the signals intelligence people, the SIGINT and EINT, electronic intelligence communities, and what they were saying about the New York Times articles and the various videos, and really none of them were talking about UFOs. They were all talking about pure state. That’s why I learned the word pure state adversaries, how even simple drone technologies and you purposely want to do this. You want to fake signals into the electronics of their adversary, so they crank it up so then you can just soak up all the electromagnetic radiation and know exactly what those advanced radars can do.
Absolutely. I mean, listen, that’s why again, I think UAP, absolutely UAP should be studied scientifically, but if I had to make a bet and it’s just a bet, I would say this is pure state adversary stuff. When I did, I did a New York Times op-ed for this in 2021, which blew up, and so I had a lot of people talking to me. While I was doing that. I sort of looked at the signals intelligence people, the SIGINT and EINT, electronic intelligence communities, and what they were saying about the New York Times articles and the various videos, and really none of them were talking about UFOs. They were all talking about pure state. That’s why I learned the word pure state adversaries, how even simple drone technologies and you purposely want to do this. You want to fake signals into the electronics of their adversary, so they crank it up so then you can just soak up all the electromagnetic radiation and know exactly what those advanced radars can do.
Lex Fridman
That said, I’m not saying that’s what this is. If I was the head of an alien civilization and I chose not to minimize the amount of contact I’m doing, I would try to figure out what would these humans, what would these aliens like to see? That’s why the big heads in the humanoid form, I mean, that’s kind of how I would approach communication. If I was much more intelligent, I would observe them enough. It’s like, all right, if I wanted to communicate with an ant colony, I would observe it long enough to see what are the basic elements of communication. And maybe I would do a trivial thing, do a fake ant in there.
That said, I’m not saying that’s what this is. If I was the head of an alien civilization and I chose not to minimize the amount of contact I’m doing, I would try to figure out what would these humans, what would these aliens like to see? That’s why the big heads in the humanoid form, I mean, that’s kind of how I would approach communication. If I was much more intelligent, I would observe them enough. It’s like, all right, if I wanted to communicate with an ant colony, I would observe it long enough to see what are the basic elements of communication. And maybe I would do a trivial thing, do a fake ant in there.
Adam Frank
Right. A robot ant.
Right. A robot ant.
Lex Fridman
A robot ant, but then it’s not enough to just do a robot ant. You have to do a robot ant that moves in the way they do, and maybe aliens are just shitty at doing the robot ants. But no, I just wanted to make the case for that,
A robot ant, but then it’s not enough to just do a robot ant. You have to do a robot ant that moves in the way they do, and maybe aliens are just shitty at doing the robot ants. But no, I just wanted to make the case for that,
Adam Frank
This is the plot actually of a great science fiction book called Eon by Greg Baer, and the idea was these sort of, this is actually where my first, I became sort of more than agnostic, anti-medy, because the idea is that yes, our aliens come, they sort of make their arrival and really their point is to get rid of us. It’s the dark forest hypothesis. And what they do is they literally, the way they present themselves is in this sort of classic UFO thing, and they do it and they arrive at, this was during the Soviet Union. They arrive at the USSR, they arrive in China, and they’re kind of faking us out so that we never can organize ourselves against… So it was really, they did exactly what you’re talking about, but for nefarious purposes.
This is the plot actually of a great science fiction book called Eon by Greg Baer, and the idea was these sort of, this is actually where my first, I became sort of more than agnostic, anti-medy, because the idea is that yes, our aliens come, they sort of make their arrival and really their point is to get rid of us. It’s the dark forest hypothesis. And what they do is they literally, the way they present themselves is in this sort of classic UFO thing, and they do it and they arrive at, this was during the Soviet Union. They arrive at the USSR, they arrive in China, and they’re kind of faking us out so that we never can organize ourselves against… So it was really, they did exactly what you’re talking about, but for nefarious purposes.
Lex Fridman
Okay, let me ask the pothead question. Yet another pothead-
Okay, let me ask the pothead question. Yet another pothead-
Adam Frank
Another pothead. The whole conversation-
Another pothead. The whole conversation-
Lex Fridman
I’m sorry.
I’m sorry.
Adam Frank
Boggs before breakfast.
Boggs before breakfast.
Lex Fridman
It’s signs and pothead questions back and forth. Okay, what if aliens take a form that’s unlike what we kind of traditionally envision in analyzing physical objects? What if they take the form of say ideas? What if real pothead, if it’s consciousness itself, like the subjective experience as an alien being, maybe ideas and is an easier one to visualize? Because we can think of ideas as entities traveling from human to human.
It’s signs and pothead questions back and forth. Okay, what if aliens take a form that’s unlike what we kind of traditionally envision in analyzing physical objects? What if they take the form of say ideas? What if real pothead, if it’s consciousness itself, like the subjective experience as an alien being, maybe ideas and is an easier one to visualize? Because we can think of ideas as entities traveling from human to human.
Adam Frank
I made the claim that the most important, that finding life any kind of life would be the most important discovery in human history. And one of the reasons is, again, as I said, that life, if we’re not an accident and there’s other life, then there’s probably lots of other life. And because the most significant thing about life is it can innovate, right? If I give you a star and tell you the mass and the composition, you can basically pretty much use the laws of physics, tell exactly what’s going to happen to that star over its entire lifetime. Maybe not the little tiny details, but overall it’s going to be a white dwarf, if it’s going to be a black hole end of story. If I gave you a single cell and said, “What’s going to happen in a few billion years?” You’d never be able to predict a giant rabbit that can punch you in the face, right?
I made the claim that the most important, that finding life any kind of life would be the most important discovery in human history. And one of the reasons is, again, as I said, that life, if we’re not an accident and there’s other life, then there’s probably lots of other life. And because the most significant thing about life is it can innovate, right? If I give you a star and tell you the mass and the composition, you can basically pretty much use the laws of physics, tell exactly what’s going to happen to that star over its entire lifetime. Maybe not the little tiny details, but overall it’s going to be a white dwarf, if it’s going to be a black hole end of story. If I gave you a single cell and said, “What’s going to happen in a few billion years?” You’d never be able to predict a giant rabbit that can punch you in the face, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Adam Frank
A kangaroo.
A kangaroo.
So life has this possibility of innovating, of being creative. So what it means is, and that’s kind of a fundamental definition of what it means to be alive. It goes past itself. So give life enough time and what are the end result? That’s why I love science fiction so much. At some point, does life reach a point where it climbs into the laws of physics itself. It becomes the laws of physics or these sort of lie at the extreme limits of thinking about what we mean by reality, what we mean by experience. But I’m not sure there was much we can do with them scientifically, but they’re open-ended question about the open-ended nature of what it means to be alive and what life can do.
Physics of life
Lex Fridman
Since you said it’s the biggest question, which is an interesting thought experiment, what is the biggest scientific question we can possibly answer? Some people might say about what happened before the Big Bang, some big physics questions about the universe. I could see the argument for how many alien civilizations or if there’s other life out there? You want to speak to that a little bit? Why is it the biggest question in… Why is it number one in your top five?
Since you said it’s the biggest question, which is an interesting thought experiment, what is the biggest scientific question we can possibly answer? Some people might say about what happened before the Big Bang, some big physics questions about the universe. I could see the argument for how many alien civilizations or if there’s other life out there? You want to speak to that a little bit? Why is it the biggest question in… Why is it number one in your top five?
Adam Frank
I’ve evolved in this, right? I started off as a theoretical physicist. I went into computational astrophysics, magnetohydrodynamics of star formation, but I always was a philosophy minor. I always had these sort of bigger questions sort of floating around the back of my mind. And what I’ve come to now is the most important question for physics is, what is life? What the hell is the difference between a rock and a cell, fundamentally? And what I really mean by this, this is where I’m going to go non-traditional, is that really the fundamental question that is agency. What does it mean to be an autonomous agent? How the hell does that happen? I’m not a reductionist. I’m not somebody who’s just like, well, you just put together enough chemicals and bing, bang, boom, and it suddenly appears there’s something that really is going to demand a reconception of what nature itself is.
I’ve evolved in this, right? I started off as a theoretical physicist. I went into computational astrophysics, magnetohydrodynamics of star formation, but I always was a philosophy minor. I always had these sort of bigger questions sort of floating around the back of my mind. And what I’ve come to now is the most important question for physics is, what is life? What the hell is the difference between a rock and a cell, fundamentally? And what I really mean by this, this is where I’m going to go non-traditional, is that really the fundamental question that is agency. What does it mean to be an autonomous agent? How the hell does that happen? I’m not a reductionist. I’m not somebody who’s just like, well, you just put together enough chemicals and bing, bang, boom, and it suddenly appears there’s something that really is going to demand a reconception of what nature itself is.
And so yeah, black holes are super cool. Cosmology is super cool. But really this question of what is life? Especially, from by viewing it from the inside, because it’s really about the verb to be. Really what is the most impressing philosophical question beyond science? Is the verb to be, what is being? This is what Stephen Hawking said when he talked about, “What puts the fire in the equations? The fire.” The fire is this presence and this is where it touches things like whatever you want to say it, the sacred, spirituality, whatever you want to talk about. My first book was about science and human spirituality. So this question of life, what makes life as a physical system so different is to me much more because that is where being appears. Being doesn’t appear out there. The only place that ever appears to any of us is us. I can do this kind of projection into this third person thing, but nobody ever has that, that God’s eye view. That’s a story we tell. This is where, this between us is where the verb to be, appears.
Lex Fridman
So this is something that you write about in The Blind Spot, why science cannot ignore human experience, sort of trying to pull the fire into the process of science. And it’s a kind of critique of materialism. Can you explain the main thesis of this book?
So this is something that you write about in The Blind Spot, why science cannot ignore human experience, sort of trying to pull the fire into the process of science. And it’s a kind of critique of materialism. Can you explain the main thesis of this book?
Adam Frank
Yeah. So the idea of The Blind Spot is that there is this thing that is central to science. So we’re using the blind spot as a metaphor. So the eye has an optic nerve, and the optic nerve is what allows vision to happen. So you can’t have vision without the optic nerve, but actually you’re blind to the optic nerve. There’s a little hole in your vision where the optic nerve is. And what we’re saying is that science has something like this. There’s something that without which science would not be possible, but that science, the way it’s been configured, and actually, when we mean the blind spot, I’ll get into exactly what I mean what it is, but it’s not really science. It is a set of ideas that got glued onto science. It’s a metaphysics that got glued on science. And so what is that thing? What is the blind spot? It’s experience. It is presence. And if I experience, people have to be very careful. I’m not talking about being an observer. There’s lots of words for it. There’s direct experience. There is presence. Being. The life world. Within the philosophy called phenomenology. There’s the life world.
Yeah. So the idea of The Blind Spot is that there is this thing that is central to science. So we’re using the blind spot as a metaphor. So the eye has an optic nerve, and the optic nerve is what allows vision to happen. So you can’t have vision without the optic nerve, but actually you’re blind to the optic nerve. There’s a little hole in your vision where the optic nerve is. And what we’re saying is that science has something like this. There’s something that without which science would not be possible, but that science, the way it’s been configured, and actually, when we mean the blind spot, I’ll get into exactly what I mean what it is, but it’s not really science. It is a set of ideas that got glued onto science. It’s a metaphysics that got glued on science. And so what is that thing? What is the blind spot? It’s experience. It is presence. And if I experience, people have to be very careful. I’m not talking about being an observer. There’s lots of words for it. There’s direct experience. There is presence. Being. The life world. Within the philosophy called phenomenology. There’s the life world.
It’s this sort of raw presence that you can’t get away from until you die. And then who the hell knows that as long as you’re around, it’s there. And what we’re saying is that, that is the way to say this, that is the precondition for the possibility of science and the whole nature of science, the way it has evolved is that it purposely pushed that out. It pushed that out. So it could make progress, and that’s fine for a certain class of problems. But when we try to answer, when we try and go deeper, there’s a whole other class of problems. The nature of consciousness, the nature of time, quantum mechanics, that comes back to bite us. And that if we don’t learn how to take, understand that, that is always the background, that experience is always the background. Then we just end up with these paradoxes and that require this intellectual yoga to get out of.
Lex Fridman
I think you give a bunch of examples of that. Looking at temperature as a number is a very objective, scientific way of looking at that. And then there’s the experience of the temperature.
I think you give a bunch of examples of that. Looking at temperature as a number is a very objective, scientific way of looking at that. And then there’s the experience of the temperature.
Adam Frank
And how you build the parable of temperature that we call it. So what is the blind spot? We use the term it’s a constellation. It’s not just materialism. It’s a constellation of ideas that are all really sort of philosophical views. They’re not what science says, but because of the evolution of the history of science and culture got like pin the tail on the donkey, they were sort of pinned on and to tell us that this is what science says.
And how you build the parable of temperature that we call it. So what is the blind spot? We use the term it’s a constellation. It’s not just materialism. It’s a constellation of ideas that are all really sort of philosophical views. They’re not what science says, but because of the evolution of the history of science and culture got like pin the tail on the donkey, they were sort of pinned on and to tell us that this is what science says.
So what is it? One is reductionism that you are nothing but your nerve cells, which are nothing but the chemistry, which is nothing but all the way down to quarks. That’s it. So that’s reductionism.
The objective frame that science gives us this god’s eye view, this third-person view of the world to view the world from the outside. That’s what science bequeaths to us, that view.
Physicalism, that everything in the world is basically made of stuff. There’s nothing else to talk about that, that’s all there is. And everything can be reduced to that.
And then also the reification of mathematics, that mathematics is somehow more real than this.
And there’s a bunch of other things. But all these together, what they all do is they end up pushing experience out and saying experience is an epiphenomena. Consciousness. I tend not to use the word consciousness. I think it leads us in the wrong direction. We should focus on experience because it is a verb kind of in a way. It is verb-like and by being blind to that, we end up with these paradoxes and problems that really not only block science, but also have been detrimental to society as a whole, especially where we’re at right now.
Lex Fridman
So you actually say that, that from a perspective of detrimental society, that there’s a crisis of meaning, and then we respond to that in a way that’s counterproductive to these bigger questions, scientific questions. So the three ways responses you mentioned is scientific triumphalism, and then on the other side is rejecting science completely, both on the left and the right. I think the postmodernist on the left and the anti-establishment people on the right, and then just pseudoscience that kind of does this in-between thing. Can you just speak to those responses and to the crisis of meaning?
So you actually say that, that from a perspective of detrimental society, that there’s a crisis of meaning, and then we respond to that in a way that’s counterproductive to these bigger questions, scientific questions. So the three ways responses you mentioned is scientific triumphalism, and then on the other side is rejecting science completely, both on the left and the right. I think the postmodernist on the left and the anti-establishment people on the right, and then just pseudoscience that kind of does this in-between thing. Can you just speak to those responses and to the crisis of meaning?
Adam Frank
Right, right. So the crisis of meaning is that on the one hand, science wants to tell us that we’re insignificant. We’re not important. We’re just biological machines. And so we’re basically an insignificant part of the universe. On the other hand, we also find ourselves being completely significant. In cosmology, we have to figure out how to look from the inside. At cosmology, we’re always the observers. We’re at the center of this collapsing wavefront of light. Quantum mechanics, it really comes in, it comes the measurement problem just puts us front and center. And we’ve spent 100… Some people spent 100 years trying to ignore the measurement part of the measurement problem. So on the one hand, we’re insignificant, and on the other hand, we’re central. So which one is it? And so this all comes from not understanding actually the foundational role of experience, this inability, we can’t do science without already being present in the world.
Right, right. So the crisis of meaning is that on the one hand, science wants to tell us that we’re insignificant. We’re not important. We’re just biological machines. And so we’re basically an insignificant part of the universe. On the other hand, we also find ourselves being completely significant. In cosmology, we have to figure out how to look from the inside. At cosmology, we’re always the observers. We’re at the center of this collapsing wavefront of light. Quantum mechanics, it really comes in, it comes the measurement problem just puts us front and center. And we’ve spent 100… Some people spent 100 years trying to ignore the measurement part of the measurement problem. So on the one hand, we’re insignificant, and on the other hand, we’re central. So which one is it? And so this all comes from not understanding actually the foundational role of experience, this inability, we can’t do science without already being present in the world.
We can’t reduce what happens in science to some sort of formal… A lot of it is about we love our formal systems, our mathematics, and we’re substituting. That’s one of the things that, there’s two philosophers we really like for our heroes. One is Husserl, who is a mathematician, who invented phenomenology. And the other is Whitehead, who’s one of the greatest mathematicians of the 20th century. And Husserl came up with this idea of the surreptitious substitution. Part of The Blind Spot is substituting a formal system, a calculus of data for actual experience that that’s more important.
And so let me just do, before I go to those three responses, let’s just do the parable of temperature because I think people can… It’ll help them understand what we mean. So think about degree Celsius. We have in the modern scientific culture we live in, we think like, oh yeah, degree Celsius. They’re out there. The universe, the molecular cloud in space is 10 degrees Kelvin. The way we got there is we’ve forgotten how that idea is rooted in experience. We started off with science by, we had the subjective experience of hot and cold. I feel hot, I feel cold, you feel hot, you feel cold. Science was this process of trying to extract from those experiences what Michel Bitbol philosopher calls, “The structural invariance.” The things that we could both kind of agree on. So we figured out like, oh, we could make a gradiated little cylinder that’s got mercury in it and that hot things will be higher in on that gradiated cylinder, cold things will be lower, and we can both kind of figure out what we’re going to agree on are our standards for that. And then we have thermometry, yay. We have a way of having a structural invariant of this sort of very personal experience of hot or cold.
And then from that, we can come up with thermodynamics, etc. And then we end up at the bottom of that with this idea of everyday I wake up and I check my phone and I’m like, oh, it’s going to be 60 degrees out. Great. And we start thinking that 60 degrees is more real than hot and cold. That thermodynamics, the whole formal structure of thermodynamics is more real than the basic experience of hot and cold that it came from. It required that bodily experience that also, not just me, I have to tell you, it’s part of my communication with you, cold today, isn’t it? That from that basic irreducible experience of being in the world with everything that it involves, I developed degree Celsius, but then I forgot about it. I forgot the experience. So that’s called the amnesia of experience.
So that’s what we mean by how the blind spot emerges, how we end up, how science purposely pushes experience out of the way so it can make progress, but then it forgets that experience was important. So where does this show up? Why is this? What are the responses to trying to get this back in and where this crisis of meaning emerge? So scientific triumphalism is the idea that the only thing that’s true for us are scientific truths. Unless it can be codified in a formal system and represented as data, captured in some kind of scientific causal network, it doesn’t even exist. And anything else that’s not part of it that can be formalized in that way is an epiphenomenon. It’s not real.
So scientific triumphalism is this response to the weirdness of, I could call it the mystery, the weirdness of experience by just ignoring it completely. So there’s no other truth. Art, music, human spirituality, it’s all actually reducible it neural correlates. So that’s one way that it’s been dealt with.
The other way is this sort of, right, you’ve got on the postmodern, the left academic left, you get this thing, science is just a game. It’s just a game from the powerful come up with, which is also not true. Science is totally potent and requires an account for what is happening. So that’s another way to push science away or respond to it. The denial, science denial that happens. That’s also another way of not understanding the balance that science is trying, that we need to establish with experience.
And then there’s just pseudoscience, which wants to sort of say, oh, the new age movement or whatever, which wants to deal with experience by kind of elevating it in this weird pseudo spiritual way or that doesn’t have the rigor of science.
So all of these ways, all of these responses, we have this difficulty about experience. We need to understand how experience fits into the web of meaning, and we don’t really have a good way of doing it yet. And the point of the book was to identify very clearly how the problem manifests, what the problem is, and what its effects are in the various sciences.
Lex Fridman
And by the way, we should mention that at least the first two responses, they kind of feed each other just to observe the scientific community, those who gravitate a little bit towards the scientific triumphalism, is an arrogance that builds in the human soul. I mean, it has to do with PhDs, it has to do with sitting on an academic throne, all those things. And the human nature with the egos and so on, it builds. And of course, that nobody likes arrogance. And so those that reject science, the arrogance is fuel for the people that reject science.
And by the way, we should mention that at least the first two responses, they kind of feed each other just to observe the scientific community, those who gravitate a little bit towards the scientific triumphalism, is an arrogance that builds in the human soul. I mean, it has to do with PhDs, it has to do with sitting on an academic throne, all those things. And the human nature with the egos and so on, it builds. And of course, that nobody likes arrogance. And so those that reject science, the arrogance is fuel for the people that reject science.
Adam Frank
I absolutely agree.
I absolutely agree.
Lex Fridman
It just goes back and is this divide that builds.
It just goes back and is this divide that builds.
Adam Frank
Yeah, no, and that was a problem when you saw, so like I said, my first book was about science and human spirituality. So I was trying to say that science is actually, if we look at what happens in human spirituality, not religion. Religion is about politics, but about for the entire history of the species, we’ve had this experience of, for lack of a better word, the sacredness. I’m not connecting this God or anything. I’m just saying this experience of the more, and then with the new atheist movement, you got people saying that, “Anybody who feels that is an idiot.” They just can’t handle the hardcore science. When in fact their views of the world are so denuded of, they can’t even see the role that experience plays in how they came up with their formal systems. And experience fundamentally is weird, mysterious, it’s, it kind of goes down forever in some sense. There is always more. So yeah, that arrogance then just if you’re telling everybody who’s not hardcore enough to do the standard model of cosmology, that they’re idiots, that’s not going to bode well for the advance of your project.
Yeah, no, and that was a problem when you saw, so like I said, my first book was about science and human spirituality. So I was trying to say that science is actually, if we look at what happens in human spirituality, not religion. Religion is about politics, but about for the entire history of the species, we’ve had this experience of, for lack of a better word, the sacredness. I’m not connecting this God or anything. I’m just saying this experience of the more, and then with the new atheist movement, you got people saying that, “Anybody who feels that is an idiot.” They just can’t handle the hardcore science. When in fact their views of the world are so denuded of, they can’t even see the role that experience plays in how they came up with their formal systems. And experience fundamentally is weird, mysterious, it’s, it kind of goes down forever in some sense. There is always more. So yeah, that arrogance then just if you’re telling everybody who’s not hardcore enough to do the standard model of cosmology, that they’re idiots, that’s not going to bode well for the advance of your project.
Lex Fridman
So you’re proposing at least to consider the idea that experience is fundamental, experience is not just an illusion that emerges from the set of quirks, that there could be something about the conscious experience of the world that is at the core of reality?
So you’re proposing at least to consider the idea that experience is fundamental, experience is not just an illusion that emerges from the set of quirks, that there could be something about the conscious experience of the world that is at the core of reality?
Adam Frank
But I wouldn’t do it. I wouldn’t because there is panpsychism, right? Which wants to say-
But I wouldn’t do it. I wouldn’t because there is panpsychism, right? Which wants to say-
Lex Fridman
Right. So that’s all the way there. So panpsychism is, that’s literally one of the laws of physics is consciousness.
Right. So that’s all the way there. So panpsychism is, that’s literally one of the laws of physics is consciousness.
Adam Frank
Right. But see what all those do is just the idea of say, physicalism versus idealism, which are kind of the two philosophical schools you can go with. Physicalism says, “All that exists as physical.” Idealism says, “All that exists is mind.” We’re actually saying, “Look, both of these to take either of those positions is already to project out into that third-person view. And that third-person view we want to really emphasize is a fiction.” It’s a useful fiction when you’re doing science. If I want to do the Newtonian physics of billiard balls on a pool table, great. I don’t want to have to think about experience at all, right? But if I’m asking deeper questions, I can’t ignore the fact that there really is no person view and that any story I tell about the world is coming from, it’s not just first person, but it’s literally because I’m going to argue that experience always involves all of us. Experience always originates out of a community.
Right. But see what all those do is just the idea of say, physicalism versus idealism, which are kind of the two philosophical schools you can go with. Physicalism says, “All that exists as physical.” Idealism says, “All that exists is mind.” We’re actually saying, “Look, both of these to take either of those positions is already to project out into that third-person view. And that third-person view we want to really emphasize is a fiction.” It’s a useful fiction when you’re doing science. If I want to do the Newtonian physics of billiard balls on a pool table, great. I don’t want to have to think about experience at all, right? But if I’m asking deeper questions, I can’t ignore the fact that there really is no person view and that any story I tell about the world is coming from, it’s not just first person, but it’s literally because I’m going to argue that experience always involves all of us. Experience always originates out of a community.
That you are always telling those stories from the perspective of already existing, of already being in experience. So whatever account we want to give of the world is going to have to take that as experience as being irreducible and the irreducible starting point. So ultimately, we don’t have an answer. That’s when people are like, “Well, what are you suggesting is the alternative?” It’s like, look, that’s the good work of the next science to come. Well, our job was to point out the problem with this, but what we would argue with is, and we’re thinking about the next book, is this is really going to require a new conception of nature. That doesn’t sort of jump to that third-person… That fictional third-person view and somehow figures out how to do science. Recognizing that it always starts from experience. It always starts from this field of experience. Or in phenomenology, the word is the life world that you’re embedded in. You can’t un-embed yourself from it.
So how do you do… So one of the things that Whitehead said was, “We have to avoid the bifurcation of nature.” And what he meant by that is the bifurcation into scientific concepts, wavelength. Think about seeing a sunset. You can say like, “Oh look, it’s just wavelengths and scattering particles.” And your experience of the redness, the actual experience of the redness and all the other things. It’s not just red. There’s no qualia, there’s no pure redness. Everything that’s happening in the experiential part is just an epiphenomena. It’s just brain states, whatever. He said, “You can’t do that. They’re both real. They’re both accounts. They both need to be integrated.” And so that required, I think, really a different of what we mean by nature.
Lex Fridman
Is it something like incorporating in the physics, in the study of nature, the observer, the experiencing observer, or is that still also looking from a third-person?
Is it something like incorporating in the physics, in the study of nature, the observer, the experiencing observer, or is that still also looking from a third-person?
Adam Frank
I think that that’s what we have to figure out. And so actually a great place to think about this is quantum mechanics, because one of the things we’re arguing is look.. In the chapter that I wrote on, because I wrote on, because I wrote this with Evan Thompson, who’s a wonderful philosopher, and Marcelo Gleiser, who’s a theoretical physicist. When I was writing the chapter on the origin of The Blind Spot, sort of how this emerged out of history, the subheader was like, “Well, it made sense at the time.” Because it did. It really, there was a reason why people adopted this third person, God’s eye deterministic view. This view of sort of like, yeah, the perfect clockwork of the universe. Yeah, totally made sense. But by the time you got to the beginning of the 20th century, science itself was telling you, “Eh-eh.” And no place does this appear more than in quantum mechanics, right?
I think that that’s what we have to figure out. And so actually a great place to think about this is quantum mechanics, because one of the things we’re arguing is look.. In the chapter that I wrote on, because I wrote on, because I wrote this with Evan Thompson, who’s a wonderful philosopher, and Marcelo Gleiser, who’s a theoretical physicist. When I was writing the chapter on the origin of The Blind Spot, sort of how this emerged out of history, the subheader was like, “Well, it made sense at the time.” Because it did. It really, there was a reason why people adopted this third person, God’s eye deterministic view. This view of sort of like, yeah, the perfect clockwork of the universe. Yeah, totally made sense. But by the time you got to the beginning of the 20th century, science itself was telling you, “Eh-eh.” And no place does this appear more than in quantum mechanics, right?
Quantum mechanics slams you with the idea of the measurement problem. And most important thing about quantum mechanics is you have a dynamical equation, the Schrodinger equation, which you put in, like we talked about before, you have initial conditions and now you’ve got a differential equation and you crank out the differential equation and it makes predictions for the future, right? Exactly like Newtonian physics or its higher versions of the Lagrange or Hamiltonians. But then this other thing happens where it’s like, oh, by the way, as soon as you look at it, as soon as the measurement is made, I have a whole nother set of rules for you. That’s what we call the born rule. And it was telling you right from the beginning that measurement matters, right? So when you’re asking, how will we do this? Quantum mechanics is actually pointing to how to do it.
So there’s been all these different interpretations of the quantum mechanics. Many of them try to pretend the measurement problem isn’t there. Go to enormous lengths like the many-worlds interpretation, literally inventing an infinite number of unobservable parallel universes to avoid the thing that quantum mechanics is telling them, which is that measurements matter. And then you get something like QBism, which is I’m going to advocate for, is a new interpretation of quantum mechanics, which puts the Born rule at the center. Instead of focusing on the Schrodinger equation and the weird things that come out of it, like Schrodinger’s cat and all that other stuff. It says, “No, no, actually the real mystery is the Born rule. Let’s think about the Born rule.” And like you said, that puts the agent, the agent and information at the center of the whole thing.
Lex Fridman
So that’s not a thing you’re trying to get rid of? That’s the thing you’re trying to integrate at the center of the thing in quantum mechanics, it becomes super obvious, but maybe the same kind of thing should be incorporated in every layer of study of nature.
So that’s not a thing you’re trying to get rid of? That’s the thing you’re trying to integrate at the center of the thing in quantum mechanics, it becomes super obvious, but maybe the same kind of thing should be incorporated in every layer of study of nature.
Adam Frank
Absolutely. That’s exactly it. So one of the things that’s really interesting to me, so we have a project, I’m part of a big project that Chris Fuchs and Jacques Pienaar on QBism. So I’ve been part of that. And what I’ve been amazed by is the language they use. So what’s cool about QBism is it comes from quantum information theory. It’s a pretty modern version of thinking about quantum mechanics. And it’s always about do you have an agent who makes an action on the world? And then the information they get from that action through the experiment, that’s the action on the world. Updates, their priors updates, their Bayesian, that’s why it’s called QBism. Quantum Bayesianism updates how the information they’ve gotten from the world. Now, this turns out to be, it’s kind of the same language that we’re using in a project that’s about the physics of life, where we have a grant from the Templeton Foundation to look at semantic information and the role of semantic information in living systems like cells.
Absolutely. That’s exactly it. So one of the things that’s really interesting to me, so we have a project, I’m part of a big project that Chris Fuchs and Jacques Pienaar on QBism. So I’ve been part of that. And what I’ve been amazed by is the language they use. So what’s cool about QBism is it comes from quantum information theory. It’s a pretty modern version of thinking about quantum mechanics. And it’s always about do you have an agent who makes an action on the world? And then the information they get from that action through the experiment, that’s the action on the world. Updates, their priors updates, their Bayesian, that’s why it’s called QBism. Quantum Bayesianism updates how the information they’ve gotten from the world. Now, this turns out to be, it’s kind of the same language that we’re using in a project that’s about the physics of life, where we have a grant from the Templeton Foundation to look at semantic information and the role of semantic information in living systems like cells.
So we have Shannon information, which is a probability distribution that tells you basically how much surprise there is in a message. Semantic information focuses on meaning, right? Focuses on in a very simple way, just how much of the information that the agent, the critter is getting from the world actually helps it survive. That’s the most basic idea of meaning. We can get all philosophical about meaning, but this is it. Does it help me stay alive or not? And the whole question of agency and autonomy that occurs in this setting of just asking about how do cells move up a chemical gradient to get more food? Kind of has the feel the same sort of architecture as what’s going on in quantum mechanics. So I think what you said is exactly it, how do we bring this sort of recognition? That there’s always us, the agent or life the agent interacting with the world and drawing both giving information and passing information back as a way of doing science, doing hardcore science with experiments, but never forgetting that agency, which also means experience in some sense, is at the center of the whole thing.
Lex Fridman
So you think there could be something like QBism, Quantum Bayesianism that creates a theory, like a Nobel Prize winning theory, sort of hardcore real theories that put the agent at the center.
So you think there could be something like QBism, Quantum Bayesianism that creates a theory, like a Nobel Prize winning theory, sort of hardcore real theories that put the agent at the center.
Adam Frank
Yes. That’s what we’re looking for. I think that is really, that’s the exciting part. And it’s a move, the scientific triumphalist thing says, you understand why people love this? I have these equations. And these equations represent, there’s this platonic ideal that they are, they exist eternally on their own. It’s kind of quasi-religious, right? It’s sort of somehow, look, these equations are the, you’re reading the mind of God, but this other approach to me is just as exciting because what you’re saying is there’s us and the world, they’re inseparable. It’s always us and the world. And what we’re now finding about is this co-creation, this interaction between the agent and the world such that these powerful laws of physics that need an account. In no way am I saying these laws aren’t important. These laws are amazing, but they need an account, but not an account that strips, that turns the experience, turns the agent into just an epiphenomena, that it pushes the agent out and makes it seem as if the agent’s not the most important part of the story.
Yes. That’s what we’re looking for. I think that is really, that’s the exciting part. And it’s a move, the scientific triumphalist thing says, you understand why people love this? I have these equations. And these equations represent, there’s this platonic ideal that they are, they exist eternally on their own. It’s kind of quasi-religious, right? It’s sort of somehow, look, these equations are the, you’re reading the mind of God, but this other approach to me is just as exciting because what you’re saying is there’s us and the world, they’re inseparable. It’s always us and the world. And what we’re now finding about is this co-creation, this interaction between the agent and the world such that these powerful laws of physics that need an account. In no way am I saying these laws aren’t important. These laws are amazing, but they need an account, but not an account that strips, that turns the experience, turns the agent into just an epiphenomena, that it pushes the agent out and makes it seem as if the agent’s not the most important part of the story.
Lex Fridman
So if you pull on this thread and say, there’s a whole discipline born of this, putting the agent as the primary thing in a theory, in a physics theory, is it possible it just breaks the whole thing open? So there’s this whole effort of unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics of coming up with a theory of everything. What if these are the tip of the iceberg? What if the agent thing is really important?
So if you pull on this thread and say, there’s a whole discipline born of this, putting the agent as the primary thing in a theory, in a physics theory, is it possible it just breaks the whole thing open? So there’s this whole effort of unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics of coming up with a theory of everything. What if these are the tip of the iceberg? What if the agent thing is really important?
Adam Frank
So listen, that would be kind of my dream. I’m not going to be the one to do it because I’m not smart enough to do it. Marcelo and I have for a while have been sort of critical of where foundational physics has been for a while. With string theory, I’ve spent my whole life listening to talks about, “String theory, real soon.” And it’s gotten ever more disconnected from data, observations. There were people talking for a while that it is post-empirical. I always wanted to write a paper or an article that was like, physicists have been smoking their own stash. There’s this way we’ve gotten used to, you have to out-weird the other person, my theory has 38 dimensions. My theory is 22 dimensions, but it’s got psychedelic squirrels in it. And so there’s a problem. I don’t need to tell you there’s a crisis in physics or there’s a crisis in cosmology. Other people have used that. That’s been the headline on scientific American stories.
So listen, that would be kind of my dream. I’m not going to be the one to do it because I’m not smart enough to do it. Marcelo and I have for a while have been sort of critical of where foundational physics has been for a while. With string theory, I’ve spent my whole life listening to talks about, “String theory, real soon.” And it’s gotten ever more disconnected from data, observations. There were people talking for a while that it is post-empirical. I always wanted to write a paper or an article that was like, physicists have been smoking their own stash. There’s this way we’ve gotten used to, you have to out-weird the other person, my theory has 38 dimensions. My theory is 22 dimensions, but it’s got psychedelic squirrels in it. And so there’s a problem. I don’t need to tell you there’s a crisis in physics or there’s a crisis in cosmology. Other people have used that. That’s been the headline on scientific American stories.
So clearly another direction has to be found, and maybe it has nothing to do with this, but I suspect that because so many times the agent or having to deal with the view from the inside or the role of agency. When it comes to time thinking that you can replace the block universe with the actual experience of time. Clocks don’t tell time. We use clocks to tell time. So maybe that even the fundamental nature of time can’t be viewed from the outside, that there’s a new physics theory that is going to come from, that comes from this agential, informational, computational view. I don’t know. But that’s kind of what I think it would be fertile ground to explore.
Nature of time
Lex Fridman
Yeah, time is really interesting one. Time is really important to us humans. What is time?
Yeah, time is really interesting one. Time is really important to us humans. What is time?
Adam Frank
Yeah, right. What is time? So the way we have tended to view it is we’ve taken, this is what, when Husserl talks about the surreptitious substitution, we’ve taken Einstein’s beautiful, powerful, formal system for viewing time, and we substituted that for the actual experience of time. So the block universe, where next Tuesday is already written down in the block universe, the four dimensional universe, all events are already there. Which is very potent for making certain kinds of predictions within the scientific framework. But it is not lived time. And this was pointed out to Einstein, and he eventually recognized it. Very famous meeting between Henri Bergson, who was the most famous philosopher of the early 20th century and Einstein, where Einstein was giving a talk on relativity-
Yeah, right. What is time? So the way we have tended to view it is we’ve taken, this is what, when Husserl talks about the surreptitious substitution, we’ve taken Einstein’s beautiful, powerful, formal system for viewing time, and we substituted that for the actual experience of time. So the block universe, where next Tuesday is already written down in the block universe, the four dimensional universe, all events are already there. Which is very potent for making certain kinds of predictions within the scientific framework. But it is not lived time. And this was pointed out to Einstein, and he eventually recognized it. Very famous meeting between Henri Bergson, who was the most famous philosopher of the early 20th century and Einstein, where Einstein was giving a talk on relativity-
Adam Frank
The 20th century and Einstein, where Einstein was giving a talk on relativity and Berkson, whose whole thing was about time and it was about duration. He wanted to separate the scientific image of time, the map of time from the actual terrain, which he used the word duration like we humans where duration for us is full. It’s stretched out. It’s got a little bit of the past, a little bit of the future, a little bit of the present. Music is the best example, right? You’re hearing music, you’re both already anticipating what’s going to happen and you are remembering what’s going on.
The 20th century and Einstein, where Einstein was giving a talk on relativity and Berkson, whose whole thing was about time and it was about duration. He wanted to separate the scientific image of time, the map of time from the actual terrain, which he used the word duration like we humans where duration for us is full. It’s stretched out. It’s got a little bit of the past, a little bit of the future, a little bit of the present. Music is the best example, right? You’re hearing music, you’re both already anticipating what’s going to happen and you are remembering what’s going on.
There’s a kind of phenomenal structure there, which is different from the representation of time that you have with the formal mathematics. And the way we would look at this is that the problem with the surreptitious substitution, the problem with the blind spot is it says, “Oh, no, no, the formal system is time,” but really the only place time appears is with us, where we’re so having a theory that actually could start with us and then stretch out into the universe rather than imposing this imaginary third-person view back on us. Could, that’s a route towards a different way of approaching the whole problem.
Lex Fridman
I just wonder who is the observer? I mean, define what the agent is in any kind of frame is difficult.
I just wonder who is the observer? I mean, define what the agent is in any kind of frame is difficult.
Adam Frank
Is difficult, but that’s the good work of the science ahead of us. So what happened with this idea of the structural invariance I was talking about? So we start with experience, which is irreducible. There’s no atoms of experience. It’s a whole, and we go through the whole process, which is a communal process, by the way. There’s a philosopher, Robert Crease, who talks about the workshop that started in the 1700s, 1600s, we developed this communal space to work in, sometimes it was literally a physical space, a laboratory where these ideas would be pulled apart, refined, argued over, and then validated. And we want to the next step.
Is difficult, but that’s the good work of the science ahead of us. So what happened with this idea of the structural invariance I was talking about? So we start with experience, which is irreducible. There’s no atoms of experience. It’s a whole, and we go through the whole process, which is a communal process, by the way. There’s a philosopher, Robert Crease, who talks about the workshop that started in the 1700s, 1600s, we developed this communal space to work in, sometimes it was literally a physical space, a laboratory where these ideas would be pulled apart, refined, argued over, and then validated. And we want to the next step.
So this idea of pulling out from experience, these thinner, abstract, structural invariance, the things that we could actually do science with, and it’s kind of like, we call it an ascending spiral of abstraction. So the problem with the way we do things now is we take those abstractions, which came from experience, and then with something like a computational model of consciousness or experience, we think we can put it back in. You literally pulled out these super thin things, these abstractions neglecting experience because that’s the only way to do science. And then you think somehow, oh, I’m going to jam experience back in and have an explanation for experience.
Lex Fridman
So do you think it’s possible to show that something like free will is quote, unquote real if you integrate experience back into into the physics model of the world?
So do you think it’s possible to show that something like free will is quote, unquote real if you integrate experience back into into the physics model of the world?
Adam Frank
What I would say is that free will is a given. And that’s the thing about experience. So one of the things that Whitehead said, I really love this quote. It says, “It’s not the job of either science or philosophy to account for the concrete. It’s the job to account for the abstract.” The concrete, what’s happening between us right now, is just given. It’s presented to us every day. It’s presented to me. If you want an explanation, fine, but the explanation actually doesn’t add anything to it. So that free will in some sense is the nature of being an agent. To be an agent agency and autonomy are sort of the two things that are, they’re equivalent. And so in some sense, to be an agent is to be autonomous. And so then the question really to ask is, can you have an account for agency and autonomy that captures aspects of it’s arising in the world or the way it and the world sort of co-arise.
What I would say is that free will is a given. And that’s the thing about experience. So one of the things that Whitehead said, I really love this quote. It says, “It’s not the job of either science or philosophy to account for the concrete. It’s the job to account for the abstract.” The concrete, what’s happening between us right now, is just given. It’s presented to us every day. It’s presented to me. If you want an explanation, fine, but the explanation actually doesn’t add anything to it. So that free will in some sense is the nature of being an agent. To be an agent agency and autonomy are sort of the two things that are, they’re equivalent. And so in some sense, to be an agent is to be autonomous. And so then the question really to ask is, can you have an account for agency and autonomy that captures aspects of it’s arising in the world or the way it and the world sort of co-arise.
But the idea why we argue about free will often is because we already have this blind spot view that the world is deterministic because of our equations, which themselves, we treat the equations as if they’re more real than experience. And the equations are a paler… They don’t corral experience. They are a thinner representation. As we like to say, “Don’t confuse the map for the terrain.” What’s happening between us right now and all the weirdness of it. That’s the terrain. The map is what I can write down on equations. And then in the workshop, do experiments on. Super powerful, needs an account, but experience overflows that.
Lex Fridman
What if the experience is an illusion? How do we know what if the agency that we experience is an illusion?
What if the experience is an illusion? How do we know what if the agency that we experience is an illusion?
Adam Frank
An illusion looking from where? Because that already requires to take that stance is you’ve already pushed yourself into that third person view. And so what we’re saying is that third person view, which now you’re going to say like, “Oh, I’ve got a whole other set of entities, of ontological entities,” meaning things that I think exist in God’s living room in spite that are independent of me and the community of living things I’m part of.
An illusion looking from where? Because that already requires to take that stance is you’ve already pushed yourself into that third person view. And so what we’re saying is that third person view, which now you’re going to say like, “Oh, I’ve got a whole other set of entities, of ontological entities,” meaning things that I think exist in God’s living room in spite that are independent of me and the community of living things I’m part of.
Lex Fridman
So you’re pushing it elsewhere just like there’s a stack of turtles is probably, if this experience, the human experience is an illusion, maybe there’s an observer for whom it’s not an illusion. So you always have to find an observer somewhere.
So you’re pushing it elsewhere just like there’s a stack of turtles is probably, if this experience, the human experience is an illusion, maybe there’s an observer for whom it’s not an illusion. So you always have to find an observer somewhere.
Adam Frank
And that’s why fundamentally the blind spot, especially the scientific triumphalist part is following a religious impulse. It’s wanting the god’s eye view. And what’s really interesting, and when we think about this and the way this gets talked about, especially publicly, there’s a line of philosophical inquiry that this language gets couched in and it is actually a pretty, it’s only one version of philosophy. So it is pretty much what we call the analytic tradition. But there’s even in Europe or in the Western tradition for Western, what we’ll call western philosophy, there’s phenomenology. And Heidegger and Merleau-Ponty, which took an entirely different track. They were really interested in the structure of experience. They spent all their time trying to understand, trying to develop a language that could kind of climb into the circle. That is experience, right experience. You’re not going to be able to start with axioms and work your way to it.
And that’s why fundamentally the blind spot, especially the scientific triumphalist part is following a religious impulse. It’s wanting the god’s eye view. And what’s really interesting, and when we think about this and the way this gets talked about, especially publicly, there’s a line of philosophical inquiry that this language gets couched in and it is actually a pretty, it’s only one version of philosophy. So it is pretty much what we call the analytic tradition. But there’s even in Europe or in the Western tradition for Western, what we’ll call western philosophy, there’s phenomenology. And Heidegger and Merleau-Ponty, which took an entirely different track. They were really interested in the structure of experience. They spent all their time trying to understand, trying to develop a language that could kind of climb into the circle. That is experience, right experience. You’re not going to be able to start with axioms and work your way to it.
It’s given. So you have to kind of jump in and then try and find a language to account for its structure. But then, so that has not been part of this discussion about you’ll never, good luck finding a YouTube video where someone, a famous scientist is talking about science from a phenomenological point of view, even though it’s a huge branch of philosophy. And then you get the philosophies that occurred from other cores of civilization. So there’s the western core out of which comes the Greeks and the Judeo- Christian Islamic tradition. But then you get India and you get Asia and they developed their own. They were highly complex societies that developed their own responses to these questions. And they, for reasons they had contemplative practice. They were very focused on direct, trying to directly probe attention and experience. They asked questions in ways that the West never really did.
Phenomenology kind of started it, but there’s philosophers like Nagarjuna and Vasubandhu. They’re like the Plato and the Aristotle of those philosophies. And they were really focused on experience in the West. I think maybe because we had the Judeo-Christian tradition where we already had this kind of God who was going to be the frame on which you could always point to that frame in the traditions that came from the classical philosophies of India and Asia. They started always with this. They wanted to know about experience. Their whole philosophies and their logic and their argumentation was based on, I’ve got this experience, I can’t get out of this experience. How do I reason from it? So I think there’s a lot of other philosophical traditions that we could draw from. Not slavishly, we don’t all have to become Buddhists to do it, but there are traditions that really tried to work this out in a way that the Western traditions just didn’t.
Lex Fridman
But there’s also the practical fact that it’s difficult to build a logical system on top of experience. It’s difficult to have the rigor of science on top of experience. And so as science advances, we might get better and better. The same is it’s very difficult to have any kind of mathematical or kind of scientific rigor to why complexity emerges from simple rules and simple objects, sort of the Santa Fe questions.
But there’s also the practical fact that it’s difficult to build a logical system on top of experience. It’s difficult to have the rigor of science on top of experience. And so as science advances, we might get better and better. The same is it’s very difficult to have any kind of mathematical or kind of scientific rigor to why complexity emerges from simple rules and simple objects, sort of the Santa Fe questions.
Adam Frank
But I think we can do it. I think there’s aspects of it. I mean, as long as you’re never trying to, “This is what experience is,” I think that’s kind of where you’re never going to have a causal account of experience just given. But you can do lots about, and that’s what the good work is to how do I approach this? How do I approach this in a way that’s rigorous that I can do experiments with also? But so for example, I was just reading this beautiful paper that was talking about in this is what we’re counting with our semantic information too. Causal closure. Love this idea. The idea that… So we talked about autopoiesis a while back, the idea that living systems, they are self creating and self maintaining. And so the membrane, cell membrane is a great example of this, right? The cell membrane, you can’t have a cell without a cell membrane.
But I think we can do it. I think there’s aspects of it. I mean, as long as you’re never trying to, “This is what experience is,” I think that’s kind of where you’re never going to have a causal account of experience just given. But you can do lots about, and that’s what the good work is to how do I approach this? How do I approach this in a way that’s rigorous that I can do experiments with also? But so for example, I was just reading this beautiful paper that was talking about in this is what we’re counting with our semantic information too. Causal closure. Love this idea. The idea that… So we talked about autopoiesis a while back, the idea that living systems, they are self creating and self maintaining. And so the membrane, cell membrane is a great example of this, right? The cell membrane, you can’t have a cell without a cell membrane.
The cell membrane lets stuff through, keeps other stuff out. But the cell membrane is part of the processes and it’s a product of the processes that the cell membrane needs, right? In some sense, the cell membrane creates itself. So there’s this strange, it’s always with life, there’s always this strange loop. And so somehow figuring out how to jump into that strange loop is the science that’s ahead of us. And so this idea of causal closure accounting for how the, we talk about downward causation. So reductionism says everything only depends on the microstate. Everything just depends on the atoms. That’s it. If you know the Lagrangian for the standard model, you are done. Of course, in principle, you need God’s computer, but fine. In principle, it could be done. Causal closure, and I was just reading this great paper that sort of argues for this.
There’s ways in which using Epsilon machines and all this machinery from information theory, that you can see ways in which the system can organize itself so that it decouples from the microstates. Now, the macrostate fundamentally no longer needs the microstate for its own description, its own account of the laws, whether that paper is true or not. It’s an example of heading down that road. There’s also Robert Rosen’s work. He was a theoretical biologist who he talked about closure to efficient cause that living systems are organizationally closed, are causally closed so that they don’t depend anymore on the microstate. And he had a proof, which is very contentious. Nobody knows if it’s some argue it’s true, some argue it’s not. But he said that because of this, living systems are not church-turing complete, they cannot be represented as formal systems. So in that way, they’re not axioms, they’re not living systems will not be axioms.
They can only be partially captured by algorithms. Now again, people fight back and forth about whether or not his proof is valid or not. But I’m saying them giving you examples of when you see the blind spot, when you acknowledge the blind spot, it opens up a whole other class of kinds of scientific investigations. The book we thought was going to be really heretical. Obviously most public facing scientists are very sort of in that, especially scientific triumphant. So we were just waiting for the fight. Then the review from science came out and it was totally pro… It was very positive. We’re like, “Oh my God.” Then a review came out in Nature Physics and it was totally positive.
Then a review came out in the Wall Street Journal, kind of criticized, not capitalism, but we criticized all industrial economies for that they had been touched by the blind spots, socialism, communism. It doesn’t matter. These extractive sort of had that sort of view that the is just reducible to resources. The Wall Street Journal gave us a great review. So it feels like there’s actually out there, there is some, among working scientists in particular, there is some dissatisfaction with this triumphalist view and a recognition that we need to shift something in order to jump past these hurdles that we’ve been arguing about forever and we’re sort of stuck in a vortex.
Lex Fridman
Well, it is. I mean, I think there is a hunger to acknowledge that there’s an elephant in the room, that we’re just removing the agent. Everyone is doing it and it’s like, yeah, yeah, there’s the experience and then there’s the third-person perspective on the world. And so, man, science from, applying scientific rigor from a first-person perspective is very difficult. I mean, it’s fascinating.
Well, it is. I mean, I think there is a hunger to acknowledge that there’s an elephant in the room, that we’re just removing the agent. Everyone is doing it and it’s like, yeah, yeah, there’s the experience and then there’s the third-person perspective on the world. And so, man, science from, applying scientific rigor from a first-person perspective is very difficult. I mean, it’s fascinating.
Adam Frank
I think we can do it. Also, the thing, what’s really interesting is I think it’s not just first-person, first and second, because one idea is that, the idea that, oh, science gives us this objective third-person view. That’s one way of talking about objectivity. There’s a whole other way is that I do the experiment. You do the experiment, we talk to each other, we agree on methods, and we both get the same result. That is a very different way of thinking about objectivity, and it acknowledges that when we talk about agents, agency and individuality are flexible.
I think we can do it. Also, the thing, what’s really interesting is I think it’s not just first-person, first and second, because one idea is that, the idea that, oh, science gives us this objective third-person view. That’s one way of talking about objectivity. There’s a whole other way is that I do the experiment. You do the experiment, we talk to each other, we agree on methods, and we both get the same result. That is a very different way of thinking about objectivity, and it acknowledges that when we talk about agents, agency and individuality are flexible.
So there’s a great paper, speaking of Santa Fe by David Krakauer, where they looked at sort of information, theoretic measures of individuality. And what you find is it’s actually pretty fluid. My liver cell is an individual, but really it’s part of the liver. And my liver is a separate system, but really it’s part of me. So I’m an individual, yay. But actually I’m part of a society and I couldn’t be me without the entire community of say, language users. I wouldn’t even be able to frame any questions. And my community of language users is part of ecosystems that are alive, that I am a part of, a lineage of. This is like Sarah Walker stuff, and then those ecosystems are part of the biosphere. We’re never separable as opposed to this very atomizing, the triumphal, this science view is wants like Boltzmann brains, you’re just a brain floating in the space.
Lex Fridman
There is a fascinating degree to which agency is fluid. You are an individual, but you and I talking is the kind of individual, and then the person listening to this right now is also an individual. I mean, that’s a weird thing too.
There is a fascinating degree to which agency is fluid. You are an individual, but you and I talking is the kind of individual, and then the person listening to this right now is also an individual. I mean, that’s a weird thing too.
Adam Frank
That’s a weird thing, right?
That’s a weird thing, right?
Lex Fridman
Because there’s a broadcast nature too.
Because there’s a broadcast nature too.
Adam Frank
This is why information theoretic. So the idea that we’re pursuing now, which I get really excited about, is this idea of information architecture or organization. Organizational organization. Because physicalism is like everything’s atoms, but Kant recognized, Kant is apparently the one who came up with the word organism. He recognized that life has a weird organization that would see specifically different from machines. And so this idea that how do we engage with the idea that organization, which is often I can be cast in information theoretic terms or computational terms even. It’s not really quite physical. It’s embodied in physical, in the physical. It has to instantiate in the physical, but it also has this other realm of design, not design like intelligent design, but there’s a… The organization itself is a relationship of constraints and information flow. And I think again, that’s an entirely new interesting way that we might get a very different kind of science that would flow out of that.
This is why information theoretic. So the idea that we’re pursuing now, which I get really excited about, is this idea of information architecture or organization. Organizational organization. Because physicalism is like everything’s atoms, but Kant recognized, Kant is apparently the one who came up with the word organism. He recognized that life has a weird organization that would see specifically different from machines. And so this idea that how do we engage with the idea that organization, which is often I can be cast in information theoretic terms or computational terms even. It’s not really quite physical. It’s embodied in physical, in the physical. It has to instantiate in the physical, but it also has this other realm of design, not design like intelligent design, but there’s a… The organization itself is a relationship of constraints and information flow. And I think again, that’s an entirely new interesting way that we might get a very different kind of science that would flow out of that.
Cognition
Lex Fridman
So going back to Kant and organism versus machine. So I showed you a couple of legged robots.
So going back to Kant and organism versus machine. So I showed you a couple of legged robots.
Adam Frank
Very cool.
Very cool.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible for machines to have agency?
Is it possible for machines to have agency?
Adam Frank
I would not discount that possibility. I think there’s no reason I would say that it’s impossible that machines could, whatever it manifests that strange loop that we’re talking about that autopoiesis I don’t think there’s a reason to say it can’t happen in silicon. I think whatever, it would be very different from us, the idea that it would be like, oh, it would be just like us. But now it’s instantiated and I think it might have very different kind of experiential nature. I don’t think what we have now, the LLMs are really there, but yeah, I’m not going to say that it’s not possible.
I would not discount that possibility. I think there’s no reason I would say that it’s impossible that machines could, whatever it manifests that strange loop that we’re talking about that autopoiesis I don’t think there’s a reason to say it can’t happen in silicon. I think whatever, it would be very different from us, the idea that it would be like, oh, it would be just like us. But now it’s instantiated and I think it might have very different kind of experiential nature. I don’t think what we have now, the LLMs are really there, but yeah, I’m not going to say that it’s not possible.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how far you can get with imitation, which is essentially what LLMs are doing. So imitating humans, and I wouldn’t discount either the possibility that through imitation you can achieve what you would call consciousness or agency or the ability to have experience. I think for most of us humans to think, oh, that’s just fake. That’s copying. But there’s some degree to which us, we humans are just copying each other. We just are really good imitation machines coming from babies. We were born in this world and we’re just learning to imitate each other. And through the imitation and the tension in the disagreements in the imitations. We gain personality, perspective, all that kind of stuff.
I wonder how far you can get with imitation, which is essentially what LLMs are doing. So imitating humans, and I wouldn’t discount either the possibility that through imitation you can achieve what you would call consciousness or agency or the ability to have experience. I think for most of us humans to think, oh, that’s just fake. That’s copying. But there’s some degree to which us, we humans are just copying each other. We just are really good imitation machines coming from babies. We were born in this world and we’re just learning to imitate each other. And through the imitation and the tension in the disagreements in the imitations. We gain personality, perspective, all that kind of stuff.
Adam Frank
Yeah, it’s possible, right? It’s possible. But I think probably the view I’m advocating would say that one of the most important parts of agency is there’s something called, E-four. The E-four theory of cognition, embodiment, enaction, embedding, and there’s another one, extension. But so the idea is that you actually have to be in a body which is itself part of an environment that is the physical nature of it and of the extension with other living systems as well is essential.
Yeah, it’s possible, right? It’s possible. But I think probably the view I’m advocating would say that one of the most important parts of agency is there’s something called, E-four. The E-four theory of cognition, embodiment, enaction, embedding, and there’s another one, extension. But so the idea is that you actually have to be in a body which is itself part of an environment that is the physical nature of it and of the extension with other living systems as well is essential.
So that’s why I think the LLMs are not going to, it’s not imitation. It’s going to require, this goes to the brain in the VAT thing. I did an article about the brain in the vat, which was really Evans, I was reporting on Evans. Where they did the brain in the VAT argument. But they said, “Look, in the end, actually the only way to actually get a real brain in the VAT is actually to have a brain in a body.” And it could be a robot body, but you still need a brain in the body. So I don’t think LLMs will get there because they can’t. You really need to be embedded in a world, at least that’s the E-four idea.
Lex Fridman
The E-four, the 4E approach to cognition argues that cognition does not occur solely in the head, but is also embodied, embedded, enacted, and extended. And by way of extra cranial processes and structures, they’re very much in vogue. 4E cognition has received relatively few critical evaluations. This is a paper, but reflecting on two recent collections, this article reviews the four E paradigm with a view to assessing the strengths and weaknesses. It’s fascinating. I mean, yeah, the branches of what is cognition extends far, and it could go real far.
The E-four, the 4E approach to cognition argues that cognition does not occur solely in the head, but is also embodied, embedded, enacted, and extended. And by way of extra cranial processes and structures, they’re very much in vogue. 4E cognition has received relatively few critical evaluations. This is a paper, but reflecting on two recent collections, this article reviews the four E paradigm with a view to assessing the strengths and weaknesses. It’s fascinating. I mean, yeah, the branches of what is cognition extends far, and it could go real far.
Adam Frank
Right. There’s a great story about an interaction between Jonas Salk, who was very much a reductionist, the great biologist, and Gregory Bateson, who was a cyberneticist, and Bateson always loved to poke people. And he said to Salk, he said, “Where’s your mind?” And Salk went, “Up here,” and Bateson said, “No, no, no, out here.” And what he really meant was this extended idea. It’s not just within your cranium to have experience. Experience in some sense is not a thing you have. It is a thing you do. Almost perform it in a way, which is why both actually having a body, but having the body itself be in a world with other bodies is, from this perspective, is really important. And it’s very attractive to me. And again, if we’re really going to do science with them, we’re going to have to have these ideas crash up against data, crash up against, we can’t just armchair it or couch quarterbacking it, but I think there’s a lot of possibility here. It’s a very radically different way of looking at what we mean by nature.
Right. There’s a great story about an interaction between Jonas Salk, who was very much a reductionist, the great biologist, and Gregory Bateson, who was a cyberneticist, and Bateson always loved to poke people. And he said to Salk, he said, “Where’s your mind?” And Salk went, “Up here,” and Bateson said, “No, no, no, out here.” And what he really meant was this extended idea. It’s not just within your cranium to have experience. Experience in some sense is not a thing you have. It is a thing you do. Almost perform it in a way, which is why both actually having a body, but having the body itself be in a world with other bodies is, from this perspective, is really important. And it’s very attractive to me. And again, if we’re really going to do science with them, we’re going to have to have these ideas crash up against data, crash up against, we can’t just armchair it or couch quarterbacking it, but I think there’s a lot of possibility here. It’s a very radically different way of looking at what we mean by nature.
Mortality
Lex Fridman
What do you make of the fact that this individual observer, you as an individual observer only get a finite amount of time to exist in this world? Does it make you sad?
What do you make of the fact that this individual observer, you as an individual observer only get a finite amount of time to exist in this world? Does it make you sad?
Adam Frank
No, actually it doesn’t make me sad. Okay, so full reveal, I have been doing contemplative practice in the zen tradition for 30 years. I’ve been staring at a wall for 30 years, and it’s taught me a lot. I really value what that practice has given me about the nature of experience. And one of the things it’s taught me is I don’t really matter that very much. This thing I call Adam Frank is really, it’s kind of a construct. There’s this process going on of which I am actually fundamentally, and that’s super cool, but it’s going to go. I don’t know where it came from. It’s going to go, I don’t really need it to, and then who the hell knows? I’m not an advocate for an afterlife, but just that what I love, zen, has this idea of beyond birth and death, and they don’t mean reincarnation. What they mean is, “Dude, you don’t even really understand what life is.” You know what I mean? I’m like this core level of your own experience. So your ideas about what death is are equally ill-formed.
No, actually it doesn’t make me sad. Okay, so full reveal, I have been doing contemplative practice in the zen tradition for 30 years. I’ve been staring at a wall for 30 years, and it’s taught me a lot. I really value what that practice has given me about the nature of experience. And one of the things it’s taught me is I don’t really matter that very much. This thing I call Adam Frank is really, it’s kind of a construct. There’s this process going on of which I am actually fundamentally, and that’s super cool, but it’s going to go. I don’t know where it came from. It’s going to go, I don’t really need it to, and then who the hell knows? I’m not an advocate for an afterlife, but just that what I love, zen, has this idea of beyond birth and death, and they don’t mean reincarnation. What they mean is, “Dude, you don’t even really understand what life is.” You know what I mean? I’m like this core level of your own experience. So your ideas about what death is are equally ill-formed.
The contemplative practice really tries to focus on experience itself. Spend five days at a zen session doing contemplative practice from 7:00 AM. until 9:00 PM, obviously with breaks. And you’ll really get a much deeper understanding of what my own experience is. What is it really like? It forces you to learn how to stabilize your attention because attention is kind of like this thing. It’s usually just like, “Oh, over there. Oh, my foot hurts. Oh, I got to do my taxes. Oh, what’s that guy over there? Why is he wearing those stupid shoes?” And with a contemplative practice, you learn how to stabilize it.
And once you stabilize it, you can now begin to sort of explore the phenomenal nature of it. So what I think I’ve learned from that is kind of whatever, I’m not really kind of real to begin with. The Adam Frank part, the identity, the thing, and the part of me that is real is everything’s coming and going. It’s all coming and going. Well, how could I ever not come and go? And the entire world is just, Buddhism has this idea of co-dependent arising. Nothing exists, nothing has self-nature. Nothing exists by itself. It’s an endless, infinitely connected web.
Lex Fridman
But still, there’s a deliciousness to the individual experience. You get attached to it and it ends and it’s good while it last, and it sucks that it ends. You can just be like, “Ah, well, everything comes and goes,” but I was eating ice cream yesterday. I found this awesome low-carb ice cream called, Delights here in Austin, and it ends. And I was staring at the empty container, and it was-
But still, there’s a deliciousness to the individual experience. You get attached to it and it ends and it’s good while it last, and it sucks that it ends. You can just be like, “Ah, well, everything comes and goes,” but I was eating ice cream yesterday. I found this awesome low-carb ice cream called, Delights here in Austin, and it ends. And I was staring at the empty container, and it was-
Adam Frank
That’s beautiful, man. I love that.
That’s beautiful, man. I love that.
Lex Fridman
You could say, “Yeah, well, that’s how it all is, but…”
You could say, “Yeah, well, that’s how it all is, but…”
Adam Frank
Can I say that what I’ve learned from, because I love your idea of the deliciousness of it. But what I think happens with contemplative practice when it deepens is that you’re not just saying, this is I do koan practice. So this is a tradition in zen that it was established, it was a teaching method that was established a thousand years ago. They’re these book of koans. And every koan, if you’ve ever read Godel, he’s got a whole chapter on koans. They’re kind of non-logical problems that you have to work on. One of my favorite one was, “Stop the sound of the distant temple bell.”
Can I say that what I’ve learned from, because I love your idea of the deliciousness of it. But what I think happens with contemplative practice when it deepens is that you’re not just saying, this is I do koan practice. So this is a tradition in zen that it was established, it was a teaching method that was established a thousand years ago. They’re these book of koans. And every koan, if you’ve ever read Godel, he’s got a whole chapter on koans. They’re kind of non-logical problems that you have to work on. One of my favorite one was, “Stop the sound of the distant temple bell.”
You’re like, “What?” Every time my teacher gives it to him, I’m like, “What are you talking about?” This is the whole zen thing of up is down, but down is up. You must understand this. So your job with these koans is to sit with them, is to sit with them until you realize what the thing is trying to teach you what aspect of experience it’s trying to teach you. So there’s no answer. No. And in fact, actually, you don’t give an answer. You actually usually have to demonstrate. The first time when I did a call on and the guy was like, “Don’t tell me the answer, show me the answer.” I was like, what are you talking about? But after doing these for years now, I’ve kind of learned the language of them. So I could never tell you. If I told you the answer, I could give you a call and tell you the answer. You’d be like, “What?”
It’s not the words, it’s the So your experience of like, yeah, the cup is empty. With a contemplative practice as it deepens over years, it really does take years. Just like anything in math, it took me years to understand the Lagrangians. You kind of come to a deeper understanding with yeah, the words of, it’s not just like, oh, everything changes. You actually feel that movement. You feel it with breath to breath, and it really becomes, sometimes I have this feeling, this is messed up, but of just joy and it’s not connected to anything. That’s what I’ve kind of gotten from practice. It’s just like, yeah, that passage, that infinite passage of moment to moment that is truly the way things are. And it’s okay. It’s not okay because I have a feeling about it. Okay. I want it to be okay. It just is okay. And so really, it’s a pretty awesome thing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s beautiful. Maybe it’s the genetics, maybe it’s the biochemistry in my brain, but I generally have that joy about experience, amorphous joy. But it seems like, again, maybe it’s my Eastern European roots, but there’s always a melancholy that’s also sitting next to the joy, and I think it always feels like they’re intricately linked. So the melancholy is about, maybe about the finiteness of experience, and the joy is just about the beauty of experience, and they’re just kind of sitting there.
Yeah, that’s beautiful. Maybe it’s the genetics, maybe it’s the biochemistry in my brain, but I generally have that joy about experience, amorphous joy. But it seems like, again, maybe it’s my Eastern European roots, but there’s always a melancholy that’s also sitting next to the joy, and I think it always feels like they’re intricately linked. So the melancholy is about, maybe about the finiteness of experience, and the joy is just about the beauty of experience, and they’re just kind of sitting there.
Adam Frank
Which is cool actually, because I’m also, I come from Eastern, my roots are Eastern European as well, going back, and I get it right, but that’s also the cool thing. I think one of the things is, well, that is what it is. That is what it is. You don’t have to do anything. You don’t have to manipulate it or move it around or yeah, this is the experience.
Which is cool actually, because I’m also, I come from Eastern, my roots are Eastern European as well, going back, and I get it right, but that’s also the cool thing. I think one of the things is, well, that is what it is. That is what it is. You don’t have to do anything. You don’t have to manipulate it or move it around or yeah, this is the experience.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to just the practical nature of sitting there from 7:00 AM to 9:00 PM?
Can you speak to just the practical nature of sitting there from 7:00 AM to 9:00 PM?
Adam Frank
I’m like, what the hell are you doing, bro?
I’m like, what the hell are you doing, bro?
Lex Fridman
What’s powerful? What’s fascinating to you? What have you learned from just the experience of staring at a wall?
What’s powerful? What’s fascinating to you? What have you learned from just the experience of staring at a wall?
Adam Frank
Yeah. Yeah. So not really. I mean, you’re staring. You’re facing a wall, and what you’re doing is you’re just sitting with, there’s different meditative practices, there’s counting breaths. So that’s usually what I do. I sit down and I start counting breaths, and for the first half hour it’s just like, blah, blah, blah. Like I said, I’m thinking about my taxes. I’m thinking about what I got to do later on, yada, yada, yada. First time I ever did a full session, a two-day session, I swear to God, I had Bruce Springsteen’s, Born To Run album track through from the beginning to the end with the pauses. This was back in when there were LPs with the fricking pauses.
Yeah. Yeah. So not really. I mean, you’re staring. You’re facing a wall, and what you’re doing is you’re just sitting with, there’s different meditative practices, there’s counting breaths. So that’s usually what I do. I sit down and I start counting breaths, and for the first half hour it’s just like, blah, blah, blah. Like I said, I’m thinking about my taxes. I’m thinking about what I got to do later on, yada, yada, yada. First time I ever did a full session, a two-day session, I swear to God, I had Bruce Springsteen’s, Born To Run album track through from the beginning to the end with the pauses. This was back in when there were LPs with the fricking pauses.
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
Adam Frank
My mind was just like, I need to do something. So it literally played the whole album in order.
My mind was just like, I need to do something. So it literally played the whole album in order.
Lex Fridman
That’s pretty cool, actually.
That’s pretty cool, actually.
Adam Frank
Yeah, it was pretty amazing to see because you really do, you see the dynamics of your mind. But what happens is, and this took me a while, I used to hate sitting. I do it, but after a while the mind gets exhausted. That part of the mind, the upper level, the roof brain chatter is just like, there’s nothing else to do. And then you get bored. And now I realize that’s when something interesting is going to happen. You drop down and now it’s a very physical practice. People think you’re just sitting there not thinking or thinking about not thinking. Actually, it becomes a very physical process where you’re really just following the breath, you’re kind of riding the breath and it gets very quiet. And within that quietness, there’s a path. Because obviously there’s been, Buddhism is always not about thinking, but there’s a huge literature.
Yeah, it was pretty amazing to see because you really do, you see the dynamics of your mind. But what happens is, and this took me a while, I used to hate sitting. I do it, but after a while the mind gets exhausted. That part of the mind, the upper level, the roof brain chatter is just like, there’s nothing else to do. And then you get bored. And now I realize that’s when something interesting is going to happen. You drop down and now it’s a very physical practice. People think you’re just sitting there not thinking or thinking about not thinking. Actually, it becomes a very physical process where you’re really just following the breath, you’re kind of riding the breath and it gets very quiet. And within that quietness, there’s a path. Because obviously there’s been, Buddhism is always not about thinking, but there’s a huge literature.
So these guys are always about, don’t think. I’ve written all this stuff, but they’re guideposts. They’re like the finger pointing at the moon. And there’s the idea of first, your mind is usually scattered. Right now, when I walk out, I’m going to go get the Uber and everything. My mind’s going to be all over the place, but with sitting, first, you concentrate the mind so that there’s no more scatter anymore. The thoughts are still happening, but you’re just not there happening up there. You’re not even paying attention to them. And then as time goes on, you unify the mind, which is this very powerful thing where kind of the self drops away and there’s just this presence.
It’s kind of like a raw presence, and that’s often where the joy up wells from, but you sit with whatever, maybe you’re going to sit and maybe you’re going to go through an hour of being bummed out about your mom who died or something. You’re just going to sit with whatever comes up you’re going to make. That’s why the sitting part, you’re making the commitment. I’m going to sit here with whatever comes up, I will not be moved. And then what You come away with it actually over time, it actually changes kind of who you are. I’m still the asshole I was from New Jersey growing up, but I just have more space now for things.
Lex Fridman
Once Jersey, always Jersey.
Once Jersey, always Jersey.
Adam Frank
Always Jersey.
Always Jersey.
Lex Fridman
But I love the Bruce Springsteen is just blasting in your head.
But I love the Bruce Springsteen is just blasting in your head.
Adam Frank
Yeah, that was amazing.
Yeah, that was amazing.
Lex Fridman
Why are we here? What do you think is the purpose, the meaning of human existence?
Why are we here? What do you think is the purpose, the meaning of human existence?
Adam Frank
It’s good that we just had the last conversation because I’m going to give this answer, which is so corny. It’s love, and I’m not messing around. Because really actually, what happens, so within Buddhism, there’s the idea of the Bodhisattva principle. You’re here to help. You’re just here to help, right? Compassion. That’s a really essential part of this path, of the Dharma path. And when I first started, I was like, “I don’t care about compassion. I’m here for knowledge.” I started contemplative practice because of the usual thing I was suffering. The reason everybody comes to things like this, life was hard. I was going through stuff, but I also wanted knowledge. I wanted to understand the foundational nature of reality. So it was like compassion or whatever. But then I found out that you can’t get that. You can’t get those. You can’t go to this level without compassion.
It’s good that we just had the last conversation because I’m going to give this answer, which is so corny. It’s love, and I’m not messing around. Because really actually, what happens, so within Buddhism, there’s the idea of the Bodhisattva principle. You’re here to help. You’re just here to help, right? Compassion. That’s a really essential part of this path, of the Dharma path. And when I first started, I was like, “I don’t care about compassion. I’m here for knowledge.” I started contemplative practice because of the usual thing I was suffering. The reason everybody comes to things like this, life was hard. I was going through stuff, but I also wanted knowledge. I wanted to understand the foundational nature of reality. So it was like compassion or whatever. But then I found out that you can’t get that. You can’t get those. You can’t go to this level without compassion.
Somehow in this process, you realize that it really is about helping all sentient beings. That’s the way they frame, just being here to help. So I know that sounds cornball, but especially for a guy from Jersey, which is the main thing is to get over. Your job is to get over. But that’s really what I found. It is actually kind… And so that joy, the joy, some of that joy is just, it’s like this. One of the things I have when I have really, there’s a kind of experience I’ll have in contemplative practice, which will carry out into the world, which is just this gratitude for the fact that the world gives you everything, and there’s a certain way, just the blue sky and the breath, the world is just giving you itself completely unhindered. It holds nothing back. And yeah, that’s kind of the experience. And then you kind of like, “Oh, I need to be helpful, because who’s not having this experience.”
Lex Fridman
So just love for the world as it is?
So just love for the world as it is?
Adam Frank
Love for the, and all the beings who are suffering. Everybody’s suffering, everybody’s suffering. Your worst political opponent, they’re suffering. And our job is just to try and drop our biases and our stories and see this fundamental level at which life is occurring.
Love for the, and all the beings who are suffering. Everybody’s suffering, everybody’s suffering. Your worst political opponent, they’re suffering. And our job is just to try and drop our biases and our stories and see this fundamental level at which life is occurring.
Lex Fridman
And hopefully there’s many alien civilizations out there going through the same journey, out of suffering, towards love.
And hopefully there’s many alien civilizations out there going through the same journey, out of suffering, towards love.
Adam Frank
That may be a universal thing about what it means to be alive.
That may be a universal thing about what it means to be alive.
Lex Fridman
I hope so.
I hope so.
Adam Frank
I hope so too. Either that or they’re coming to eat us.
I hope so too. Either that or they’re coming to eat us.
Lex Fridman
Especially if they’re a type three civilization.
Especially if they’re a type three civilization.
Adam Frank
That’s right. And they got really big guns.
That’s right. And they got really big guns.
Lex Fridman
Well, this was truly mind-blowing. Fascinating. Just awesome conversation. Adam, thank you for everything you do, and thank you for talking today.
Well, this was truly mind-blowing. Fascinating. Just awesome conversation. Adam, thank you for everything you do, and thank you for talking today.
Adam Frank
Oh, thank you. This was a lot of fun.
Oh, thank you. This was a lot of fun.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Adam Frank. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Carl Sagan. “The cosmos is all that is or ever was, or ever will be. Our feeblest, contemplations of the cosmos stir us. There’s a tingling in the spine, a catch in the voice, a faint sensation as if a distant memory or falling from a height. We know we are approaching the greatest of mysteries.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Adam Frank. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Carl Sagan. “The cosmos is all that is or ever was, or ever will be. Our feeblest, contemplations of the cosmos stir us. There’s a tingling in the spine, a catch in the voice, a faint sensation as if a distant memory or falling from a height. We know we are approaching the greatest of mysteries.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Saagar Enjeti: Trump, MAGA, DOGE, Obama, FDR, JFK, History & Politics | Lex Fridman Podcast #454
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #454 with Saagar Enjeti.
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So what does America take away from that? Every single time, if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting. And that was, really, part of his character that he developed after he got polio. And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression. He’s such an inspirational figure.
I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR, I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had. I think they had a really, really good judgment and I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world.
Actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in the room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile Crisis, and he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that.
And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text, we were forced to read it in graduate school, The Essence of Decision by Graham Allison, I’m so thankful we did. It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works.
People really need to understand Washington. Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you, they don’t even really care about the president. They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way. And it usually takes a great, shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal.
Every once in a while, you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.
So the question around The Essence of Decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision. And there are various different schools of thought, but one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then, kind of the great man theory as well.
You and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT-109 and about how John F. Kennedy experienced World War II and how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine, he was a war hero.
And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which, to this day, is considered a text, which, at the moment, was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement. I actually have a original copy, it’s one of my most prized possessions.
And from 1939… Because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F. Kennedy? Turns out he’s a brilliant man.
And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody, so in the room at the same time, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, the general who will succeed him, 26-year-old John F. Kennedy as a journalist, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others. And that’s the story of America right there. It’s kind of amazing.
I’m going to give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true. Roger Ailes, who is a genius, shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman. That book changed my life too because it really made me understand media. “People don’t want to be informed, they want to feel informed.”
In this podcast, we trace out the history of the various ideological movements that led up to the current political moment. In doing so, we mention a large number of amazing books. We’ll put a link to them in the description for those interested to learn more about each topic.
This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Saagar Enjeti.
The individual level in the United States, there’s a very simple explanation as well, which is that Joe Biden was very old, he was very unpopular, inflation was high. Inflation is one of the highest determiners of people switching their votes and of putting their primacy on that ahead of any other issue at the ballot box. So that’s that.
But I think it’s actually much deeper, at a psychological level, for who America is and what it is. And fundamentally, I think what we’re going to spend a lot of time talking about today is the evolution of the modern left and its collapse in the Kamala Harris candidacy, and eventually, the loss to Donald Trump in the popular vote where, really, is like an apotheosis of several social forces. So we’re going to talk about The Great Awakening or so-called Awokening, which is very important to understanding all of this.
There’s also really Donald Trump himself who is really one of the most unique individual American politicians that we’ve seen in decades. At this point, Donald Trump’s victory makes him the most important and transformative figure in American politics since FDR. And a thought process for the audience is in 2028, there will be an 18-year-old who’s eligible to vote who cannot remember a time when Donald J. Trump was not the central American figure.
And there’s stories in World War II where troops were on the front line, some were 18, 19 years old, FDR died, and they literally said, “Well, who’s the president?” And they said, “Harry Truman, you dumb ass.” And they go, “Who?” They couldn’t conceive of a universe where FDR was not the president of the United States. And Donald Trump, even during the Biden administration, he was the figure. Joe Biden defined his entire candidacy and his legacy around defeating this man, and obviously, he’s failed. We should talk a lot about Joe Biden as well for his own failed theories of the presidency.
So I think at a macro level, it’s easy to understand. At a basic level, inflation, it’s easy to understand. But what I really hope that a lot of people can take away is how fundamentally unique Donald Trump is as a political figure and what he was able to do to realign American politics really forever. In the white working class realignment originally of 2016, the activation, really, of a multiracial kind of working class coalition and of really splitting American lines along a single individual question of did you attend a four-year college degree institution or not?
And this is a crazy thing to say, Donald Trump is one of the most racially depolarizing electoral figures in American history. We lived in 2016 at a time when racial groups really voted in blocks, Latinos, Blacks, whites. There was some, of course, division between the white working class and the white college educated, white collar workers. But by and large, you could pretty fairly say that Asians, Indians, everyone, 80, 90% were going to vote for the Democratic Party, Latinos as well. I’m born here in the state of Texas. George W. Bush shocked people when he won some 40% of the Latino vote. Donald Trump just beat Kamala Harris with Latino men and he ran up the table for young men.
So really, fundamentally, we have witnessed a full realignment in American politics, and that’s a really fundamental problem for the modern left. It’s erased a lot of the conversation around gerrymandering, around the Electoral College, the so-called Electoral College bias towards Republicans. Really, being able to win the popular vote for the first time since 2004 is shocking and landmark achievement by a Republican.
In 2008, I have a book on my shelf and I always look at it to remind myself of how much things can change, James Carville, and it says 40 More Years, How Democrats Will Never Lose An Election Again. 2008, they wrote that book after the Obama coalition and the landslide. And something I love so much about this country, people change their minds all the time.
I was born in 1992, I watched red states go blue. I’ve seen blue states go red. I’ve seen swing states go red or blue. I’ve seen millions of people pick up and move, the greatest internal migration in the United States since World War II. And it’s really inspiring because it’s a really dynamic, interesting place. And I love covering it and I love thinking about it, talking about it, talking to people. It’s awesome.
The problem again that I have is that that is much more a proxy for four-year college degree and for education. And so, one of my favorite books is called Coming Apart by Charles Murray. And that book, really, really underscores how the cultural milieu that people swim in when they attend a four-year college degree and the trajectory of their life, not only on where they move to, who they marry, what type of grocery store they go to, their cultural, what television shows that they watch.
One of my favorite questions from Charles Murray’s is called a Bubble Quiz. I encourage people to go take it by the way. It asks you a question. It’s like what does the word Branson mean to you? And it has a couple of answers. One of them is Branson is Sir Richard Branson. Number two is Branson, Missouri, which is like a country music tourist style destination. Three is, it means nothing. So you are less in a bubble if you say country music. And you’re very much in the bubble if you say Richard Branson. And I remember taking that test for the first time, I go, “Obviously, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic. Like what?” And then, I was like, “Wait.” I’m like, “I’m in the bubble.”
And there are other things in there like can you name various different military ranks? I can because I’m a history nerd, but the vast majority of college educated people don’t know anybody who served in the United States military, they don’t have family members who do… The most popular shows in America are like The Big Bang Theory and NCIS, whereas people in our, probably, cultural milieu, our favorite shows are White Lotus, The Last of Us, this is prestige television with a very small audience, but high income, high education.
So the point is that culture really defines who we are as Americans, where we live. And rural, urban is one way to describe it, but honestly, with the work from home revolution and more rich people and highly educated people moving to more rural suburban or areas they traditionally weren’t able to commute in, that’s changing. And so, really, the internet is everything.
The stuff that you consume on the internet, the stuff that you spend your time doing, type of books you read, whether you read a book at all, frankly, whether you travel to Europe, whether you have a passport, all the things that you value in your life, that is the real cultural divide in America. And I actually think that’s what this revolution of Donald Trump was activating and bringing people to the polls, bringing a lot of those traditional working class voters of all races away from the Democratic Party along the lines of elitism, of sneering, and of a general cultural feeling that these people don’t understand me and my struggles in this life.
And what I mean by that is going to watch a TV show, and just for some reason, there’s like two trans characters. And it’s never particularly explained why, they just are there. Or watching a commercial, and it’s the same thing. Watching, I don’t know, I remember I was watching, I think it was Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. It was a terrible movie, by the way. Don’t recommend it. But one of the characters, I think her name was like America and she wore a gay pride flag. Look, many left-wingers would make fun of me for saying these things, but that is obviously a social agenda to the point as in they believe it is deeply acceptable that it’s used by Hollywood and cultural elites who really value those progress in sexual orientation and others and really believe it’s important to, quote-unquote, “showcase it for representation.” So that’s one way that we may encounter, quote-unquote, woke-ism.
But the more important ways, frankly, are the ways that affirmative action, which really has its roots in American society all the way going back to the 1960s, and how those have manifested in our economy and in our understanding of, quote-unquote, “discrimination.” So two books I can recommend, one is called The Origins of Woke, that’s by Richard Hanania. There’s another one, The Age of Entitlement, by Christopher Caldwell. And they make a very strong case, Caldwell in particular, he calls it like a new founding of America, was the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 because it created an entire new legal regime and understanding of race in the American character and how the government was going to enforce that.
And that really ties in with another one of the books that I recommended to you about the origins of Trump by Jim Webb. And Senator Jim Webb, incredible, incredible man. He’s so under appreciated. Intellectual. He was anti-war. And people may remember him from the 2016 primary and they had asked him a question, I don’t exactly remember, about one of his enemies, and he’s like, “Well, one of them was a guy I shot in Vietnam.” And he was running against Hillary.
And that guy, he wrote the book, Born Fighting, I think it’s history of the Scots-Irish people, something like that. And that book really opened my eyes to the way that affirmative action and racial preferences that were playing out through the HR, managerial elite really turned a lot of people within the white working class away from the Democratic Party and felt fundamentally discriminated against by the professional, managerial class.
So there’s a lot of roots to this, The Managerial Revolution by James Burnham. And in terms of the origin of how we got here, but the crystallization of DEI and/or affirmative action, I prefer to use the term affirmative action, in the highest echelons of business. And there became this idea that representation itself was the only thing that mattered. And I think that right around 2014, that really went on steroids, and that’s why it’s not an accident that Donald J. Trump elected in 2016.
I think that the next Democratic nominee will not do that. However, Kamala Harris actually did move as much as she could away from, quote-unquote, “woke,” but she basically was punished for a lot of the sins of both herself from 2019, but a general cultural feeling that her and the people around her do not understand me and not only do not understand me, but have racial preferences or a regime or an understanding that would lead to a, quote-unquote, “equity mindset,” equal outcomes for everybody as opposed to equality of opportunity, which is more of a colorblind philosophy. So I can’t say, I think it’s way too early.
And again, you can not use the word Latinx, but do you still believe in an effective affirmative action regime in terms of how you would run your Department of Justice, in terms of how you view the world, in terms of what you think the real dividing lines in America are? Because I would say that’s still actually kind of a woke mindset, and that’s part of the reason why the term itself doesn’t really mean a whole lot. And we have to get, actually, really specific about what it looks like in operations.
In operation, it means affirmative action, it means the NASDAQ passing some law that if you want to go public or something, that you have to have a woman and a person of color on your board. This is a blatant and extraordinary, look, racialism that they’ve enshrined in their bylaws. So you can get rid of ESG, that’s great, you can get rid of DEI, I think that’s great, but it’s really about a mindset and a view of the world, and I don’t think that’s going anywhere.
But in America, fundamentally, we really believe that, no matter where you are from, that you come here, and basically, within a generation, especially if you migrate here legally and you integrate, that you leave a lot of that stuff behind. And the story, the American dream that is ingrained in so many of us is, one, that really does not mesh well with any sort of racial preference regime or anything that’s not meritocratic.
And I will give the left-wingers some credit in the idea that meritocracy itself could have preference for people who have privileged backgrounds, I think that’s true. And so, the way I would like to see it is to increase everybody’s equality of opportunity to make sure that they all have a chance at, quote-unquote, “willing out the American dream.” But that doesn’t erase meritocracy, hard work, and many of the other things that we associate with the American character, with the American frontier.
So these are two ideologies which are really at odds. In a lot of ways, woke-ism, racialism and all this is a third world ideology. It’s one that’s very prevalent in Europe and all across Asia, but it doesn’t mix well here, and it shouldn’t. And I’m really glad that America feels the same way.
So there’s the principles of fierce individualism, the principles of a deep distrust of government, the elites, the authorities, bottom-up governance, over 2,000 years of a military tradition. They made up 40% of the Revolutionary War Army and produced numerous military leaders including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, George S. Patton, and a bunch of presidents, some of the more gangster presidents, Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Just the whole cultural legacy of country music.
And the reason I recommend that book is if you read that book and you understand then how exactly could this group of white working class voters go from 2012 voting for a man named Barack Hussein Obama to Donald J. Trump? It makes perfect sense if you combine it with a lot of the stuff I’m talking about here, about affirmative action, about distrust of the elites, about feeling as if institutions are not seeing through to you and specifically also not valuing your contribution to American history, and in some cases actively looking down.
I’m glad you pointed out not only their role in the Revolutionary War, but in the Civil War as well, and just how much of a contribution culturally really that we owe them for the groundwork that so many of us who came later could build upon and adopt some of their own ideas and their culture as our own. It’s one of the things that makes America great.
And JD, to his credit, talks about Scots-Irish heritage, about Appalachia and the legacy of what that culture looks like today and how a lot of these people voted for Donald Trump. But we got to give credit to Jim Webb who wrote the history of these people and taught me and you about their original fight against the oppressors in Scotland and Ireland and their militant spirit and how they were able to bring that over here. And they got their due in Andrew Jackson and some of our other populist presidents who set us up on the road to Donald Trump to where we are today.
One of my friends went back and dug up the email that we originally sent him, just like, “Hey, do you want to meet up?” And he was like, “Sure.” I was watching on television. The first time that it really hit me, I was like, whoa. It was like, name in a history book is whenever he became the vice presidential nominee. I was watching him on TV and the confetti was falling and he was waving with his wife, and I was like, “Wow, that’s it.” You’re in the history books now forever, especially now as the literal Vice President-elect of the US.
But his own evolution is actually a fascinating story for us too because I think a lot of the time I’ve spent right now is a lot of what I’m giving right now are 2016 kind of takes about why Trump won that time. But we just spent a lot of time on how Donald Trump won this election and what happened, some of the failures of the Biden administration, some of the payback for the Great Awokening. But also, if you look at the evolution of JD Vance, this is a person who wrote Hillbilly Elegy. And not a lot of people pay attention to this, but if you read Hillbilly Elegy, JD was much more of a traditional conservative at that time.
He was citing a report, I think the famous passage is about payday loans and why they’re good or something like that. I don’t know his position today, but I would assume that he’s probably changed that. But the point is that his ideological evolution from watching somebody who really was more of a traditional Republican with a deep empathy for the white working class than eventually become a champion and a disciple of Donald Trump, and to believe that he himself was the vehicle for accomplishing and bettering the United States, but specifically for working class Americans really of all stripes. And that story is really one of the rise of the modern left as it exists as a political project, as an ideology. It’s also one of the Republican Party which coalesced now with Donald Trump as a legitimate figure and as the single bulwark against cultural leftism and elitism that eventually was normalized to the point that majority of Americans decided to vote for him in 2024.
So Joe Biden has been the same person for his entire political career. He is a basically C student who thinks he’s an A student. The chip on his shoulder against the elites has played to his benefit in his original election to the United States Senate through his entire career as a United States Senator, where he always wanted to be the star and the center of attention and to his 1988 presidential campaign. And one of the most fascinating things about Biden and watching him age is watching him become even more of what he already was.
And so, a book recommendation, it’s called What It Takes, and it was written in 1988, and there’s actually a long chapter on Joe Biden and about the plagiarism scandal. One of the things that comes across is his sheer arrogance and belief in himself as to why he should be the center of attention.
Now, the reason I’m laying all this out is the arrogance of Joe Biden, the individual and his character is fundamentally the reason that his presidency went awry. This is a person who was elected in 2020, really because of a feeling of chaos of Donald Trump, of we need normalcy, decides to come into the office, portrays himself as a, quote-unquote, “transitional president,” slowly begins to lose a lot of his faculties and then surrounds himself with sycophants, the same ones who have been around him for so long that he had no single input into his life to tell him that he needed to stop and he needed to drop out of the race until it became truly undeniable to the vast majority of the American people.
And that’s why I’m trying to keep it as him as an individual, as a president, because we could separate him from some of his accomplishments and the things that happened on… Some of them I support, some I don’t, but generally, a lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the CHIPS Act. A lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the Build Back Better bill or whatever his Lina Khan antitrust policy. They’re going to look back on him and they’re going to remember high inflation. They’re going to remember somebody who fundamentally never was up to the job in the sense that, again, book recommendation Freedom From Fear by David Kennedy is about the Roosevelt years.
And one of the most important things people don’t understand is the New Deal didn’t really work in the way that a lot of people wanted it to. There was still high unemployment, there was still a lot of suffering, but you know what changed? They felt that they had a vigorous commander in chief who was doing everything in his power to attack the problems of the everyday American. So even though things didn’t even materially change, the vigor, that’s a term that was often associated with John F. Kennedy, he had vigor, in the Massachusetts accent. We had this young vibrant president in 1960, and he was running around and he wanted to convince us that he was working every single day tirelessly. And when you have an 80-year-old man who is simply just eating ice cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all these things go up-
That is fundamentally part of the reason why the Democrats lost the election and also why I think that he missed his moment in such a dramatic way. And he had the opportunity, he could have done it if he wanted to, but maybe 20 years ago. But the truth is that his own narcissism, his own misplaced belief in himself and his own accidental rise to the presidency ended up in his downfall.
And it’s amazing because again, if we look back to his original campaign speech 2019, why I’m running for president, it was Charlottesville, and he said, “I want to defeat Donald Trump forever and I want to make sure that he never gets back in the White House again.” By his own metric he did fail. It was the only thing he wanted to do, and he failed from.
But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place. We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover. The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he was a filthy rich banker. FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats. He’s passing legislation, but more importantly, so he tries various different programs.
Then they get ruled unconstitutional. He tries even more. What does America take away from that? Every single time if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting. And that was a really part of his character that he developed after he got polio. And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression. He’s such an inspirational figure. He really is.
And people think of him for World War II, of course, we can spend forever on that. But in my opinion, the early years are not studied enough. 33 to 37 is one of the most remarkable periods in American history. We were not ruled by a president. We were ruled by a king, by a monarch. And people liked it. He was a dictator and he was a good one.
Every night, you’re not spending it with your wife. You’re spending it at dinner with potential donors, with friends, with people who can connect you. Even after you get elected, that’s even moreso now you got to raise money and now you’re onto the next thing. Now you want to get your political thing through. You’re going to spend all your time on your phone. You and your staff are going to be more like this.
Your entire life revolves around your career. It’s honestly, you need an insane level of narcissism to do it because you have to believe that you are better than everybody else, which is already pretty crazy. And not only that, your own personal characteristics and foibles lead you to the pursuit of this office and to the pursuit of the idolatry of the self and everything around you.
There’s a famous story of Lady Bird Johnson after Johnson becomes the president and he’s talking to the White House Butler. She was like, “Everything in this house revolves around my husband. Whatever’s left goes to the girls,” her two children, “And I’ll take the scraps.” Everything revolved around Johnson’s political career and his daughters, when they’re honest, because they like to paper over some of the things that happened under him, but they didn’t spend any time with him.
Saturday morning was for breakfast with Richard Russell, I forget. These are all in the Robert A. Caro books. Sunday was for Rayburn. There was no time for his kids. That’s what it was. And by the way, he’s one of the greatest politicians to ever live. But he also died from a massive heart attack and he was a deeply sad and depressed individual.
And he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that. But how did he arrive to good judgment? Some of it certainly was his character, and we can go again though into his laundry list of that. But most of it was around being with his father, seeing some of the mistakes that he would make. And he was also had a deeply inquisitive mind and he experienced World War II at the personal level after PT 109.
Look, I get it. I actually could steal, man. The response to what I’m saying is judgment is not divisible from personal character, but just because I know a lot of politicians and I’ve read enough with the really great ones, the people who I revere the most, there’s really bad personal stuff basically every single time.
Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you. They don’t even really care about the president. They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way. And it usually takes a great shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal. Every once in a while you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.
The question around the essence of decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision. And there are various different schools of thought. But one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then kind of The Great Man Theory as well. you and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT 109 and about how John F. Kennedy experienced World War II as this, I think it was a First Lieutenant or something like that. And how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back, and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine and he was a war hero. And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which to this day is considered a text, which at the moment was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement.
I actually have a original copy is one of my most prized possessions. And from 1939, because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F. Kennedy? Turns out he’s a brilliant man. And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody. In the room at the same time, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, the general, who will succeed him. 26-year-old John F. Kennedy as a journalist, some shit head journalists on the side, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others. And that’s the story of America right there. It’s kind of amazing. I loved people to say that because you never know about who will end up rising to power.
At a very intuitive level, a lot of people can understand that, and then they can rationalize, while there are picks that Donald Trump has brought into his White House, people like Mike Waltz and others that have espoused views that are directly at odds with a “anti-neocon anti-Liz Cheney agenda”. Now, Trump’s theory of this is that he likes to have “psychopaths” like John Bolton in the room with him while he’s sitting across from Kim Jong Un because it gets scared.
What I think Trump never understood when he was president, and I honestly question if he still does now, is those two theories that you laid out, which are not about the rational interest as the government is one model, but the bureaucratic theory and the organizational theory of politics. And because what Trump I don’t think quite gets is that there are 99% of the decisions that get made in government never reached the president’s desk. One of the most important Obama quotes ever is, “By the time it gets to my desk, nobody else can solve it. All the problems here are hard. All the problems here don’t have an answer. That’s why I have to make the call.”
The theory that Trump has that you can have people in there who are, let’s say warmongers, neocons or whatever, who don’t necessarily agree with you, is that when push comes to shove at the most important decisions, that I’ll still be able to rein those people in as an influence. Here’s the issue. Let’s say for Mike Waltz, who’s going to be the National Security Advisor, a lot of people don’t really understand there’s this theory of national security advisor where you call me into your office and you’re the president and you’re like, “Hey, what do we think about Iran?” I’m like, “I think you should do X, Y, and Z.”
No, that’s not how it works. The national security advisor’s job is to coordinate the inter-agency process. His job is to actually convene meetings, him and his staff, where in the situation room, CIA, state Department, SECDEF, others before the POTUS even walks in, we have options. We’re like, “Hey, Russia just invaded Ukraine. Weed a package of options. Those packages of options are concede of three things. We’re going to have one group, we’re going to call it the dovish option. Two, we’re going to call it the middle ground. Three, the hardcore package.”
Trump walks in, this is how it’s supposed to work. Trump walks in and he goes, “Okay, Russia invaded Ukraine. What do we do?” “Mr. President, we’ve prepared three options for you. We got one, two, and three.” Now, who has the power? Is it Trump when he picks one, two, or three? Or is the man who decides what’s even in option one, two, and three? That is the part where Trump needs to really understand how these things happen.
And I watched this happen to him in his first administration. He hired a guy, Mike Flynn, who was his national security advisor. You could say a lot about Flynn, but him and Trump were at least like this on foreign policy. Flynn gets outed because what I would call an FBI coup, whatever. 33 days, he’s out as a national security advisor, H.R McMaster, he’s got a nice shiny uniform, four star, all of this. McMaster doesn’t agree with Donald Trump at all. And so Trump says, “I ran on pulling out of Afghanistan, I want to get out of Afghanistan.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll get out of Afghanistan, but before we get out, we got to go back in.” As in we need more troops in there. And he’s like, “Oh, okay.” It’s like all this and proves a plan and effectively gives a speech in 2017 where he ends up escalating and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan. And it’s only until February, 2020 that he gets to sign a deal, the Taliban peace deal, which in my opinion, he should have done in 2017.
But the reason why that happened was because of that organizational theory, of that bureaucratic politics theory where H.R McMaster is able to guide the inter-agency process, bring the uniform recommendations of the joint chiefs of staff and others to give Donald Trump no option but to say, “We must put troops.” Another example of this is a book called Obama’s War by Bob Woodward. I highly encourage people to read this book because this book talks about how Obama comes into the White House in 2009 and he says, “I want to get out of Iraq and I don’t want to increase… I want to fight the Good War in Afghanistan.” Obama’s a thoughtful guy, too thoughtful actually. And so he sits there and he’s working out his opinions. And what he starts to watch is that very slowly his options began to narrow because strategic leaks start to come out from the White House situation room about what we should do in Afghanistan.
And pretty soon David Petraeus and Stan McChrystal and the entire national security apparatus has Obama pegged where he basically politically at the time decides to take the advantage position of increasing troops in Afghanistan, but then tries to have it both ways by saying, “But in two years, we’re going to withdraw.” That book really demonstrates how the deep state can completely remove any of your options to be able to move by presenting you with ones which you don’t even want, and then making it politically completely infeasible to travel down the extreme directions.
That’s why when Trump says things like, “I want to get out of Syria,” that doesn’t compute up here for the Pentagon. Because first of all, if I even asked you how many troops we have in Syria, and you could go on the DOD website, it’ll tell you a number. The number’s bullshit because the way that they do it is if you’re only there for 179 days, you don’t count as active, military contracts. The real numbers, let’s say five times.
And so Trump would be like, “Hey, I want to get out of Syria.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll do it. Six months, we need six months.” And after six months ago, he goes, “So, are we out of Syria yet?” And they’re like, “No. Well, we got to wrap this up. We got this base, we got that, and we have this important mission.” And next thing you know, you’re out of office and it’s over. That there’s all these things which I don’t think he quite understands. I know that some of the people around him who disagree with these picks do is the reason why these picks really matter, it’s not only are the voices in the situation room for the really, really high profile stuff, it’s where all little things to never get to that president’s desk of which can shape extraordinary policy.
And I’ll give you the best example. There was never a decision by FDR as President of the United States to oil embargo Japan. One, which he thought about as deeply as you and I would want. It was a decision made within the State Department. It was a decision that was made by some of his advisors. I think he eventually signed off on it. It was a conscious choice, but it was not one which ever was understood the implications that by doing that, we invite a potential response like Pearl Harbor. So think about what the organizational bureaucratic model can tell us about the extraordinary blowback that we can get and why we want people with great judgment all the way up and down the entire national security chain in the White House.
Also, I just realized I did not talk about immigration, which is so insane. One of the reasons Donald Trump won in 2024, of course, was because of the massive change to the immigration status quo. The truth is is that it may actually be second to inflation in terms of the reason that Trump did win the presidency was because Joe Biden fundamentally changed the immigration status quo in this country. That was another thing about the Scots-Irish people and others that we need to understand is that when government machinery and elitism and liberalism appears to be more concerned about people who are coming here in a disorderly and illegal process and about their rights and their ability to “pursue the American dream,” while the American dream is dying for the native-born population, that is a huge reason why people are turning against mass immigration. Historically as well, my friend, Reihan Salam, wrote a book called Melting Pot or Civil War? And one of the most important parts about that book is the history of mass migration to the United States.
If we think about the transition from Scots-Irish America to the opening of America to the Irish and to mass European immigration, what a lot of people don’t realize is it caused a ton of problems. There were mass movements at the time, the no nothings and others in the 1860s who rose up against mass European migration. They were particularly concerned about Catholicism as the religion of a lot of the new immigrants.
But really what it was is about the changing of the American character by people who are not have the same traditions, values and skills as the native-born population. And their understanding of what they’re owed and their role in American society is very different from the way that people previously had. One of the most tumultuous periods of US politics was actually during the resolution of the immigration question where we had massive waves of foreign-born population come to the United States. We had them integrated, luckily actually at the time with the Industrial Revolution. So we actually did have jobs for them.
One of the problems is that today in the United States, we have one of the highest levels of foreign-born population than ever before, actually since that time in the early 1900s. But we have all of the same attendant problems. But even worse is we don’t live in an industrial economy anymore. We live in a predominantly service-based economy that has long moved past manufacturing.
Now, I’m not saying we shouldn’t bring some of that back, but the truth is that manufacturing today is not what it was to work in a steel mill in 1875. I think we can all be reasonable and we can agree on that. And part of the problems with extremely high levels of foreign-born population, particularly unskilled, and the vast majority of the people who are coming here and who are claiming asylum are doing so under fraudulent purposes. They’re doing so because they are economic migrants and they’re abusing asylum law to basically gain entrance to the United States without going through a process of application or of merit. And this has all of its traces back to 1965 where the Immigration Naturalization Act of 1965 really reversed and changed the status quo of immigration from the 1920s to 1960, which really shut down levels of immigration to the United States. In my opinion, it was one of the most important things that ever happened. And one of the reasons why is it forced and caused integration. It also forced by slowing down the increase in the number of foreign-born population, it redeveloped an American character and an understanding that was more homogenous and was the ability for you and me to understand despite the difference in our background.
If you accelerate and you continue this trend of the very high foreign-born unskilled population, you unfortunately are basically creating a mass… It’s basically it’s a non-citizen population of illegal immigrants, people who are not as skilled. I think I read 27% of the people who’ve come under Joe Biden illegally don’t even have a college degree. That means that we are lucky if they’re even literate in Spanish, let alone English. So there are major problems about integrating that type of person. Even in the past, whenever we had a mass industrial economy, now imagine today the amount of strain that would put on social services if mass citizenship happened to that population would be extraordinary.
I don’t think it’s a good idea, but even if we were to do so, we would still need to pair it with a dramatic change. And part of the problem right now is I don’t think a lot of people understand that immigration system. The immigration system in the United States, effectively they call it family-based migration. I call it chain migration. Chain migration is the term which implies that let’s say you come over here and you get your green card. You can use sponsorship and others by gaming the quota system to get your cousin or whatever to be able to come. The problem with that is who is your cousin? Is he a plumber? Is he a coder? That doesn’t actually matter because he’s your cousin si he actually has preference.
The way that it should work is it should be nobody cares if he’s your cousin. What does he do? What does she do? What is she going to bring to this country? All immigration in the United States, in my opinion, should be net positive without doing fake statistics about, “Oh, they actually increased the GDP or whatever.” It’s like we need a merit-based immigration system. We are the largest country in the world and one of the only Western countries in the world that does not have a merit-based points-based immigration system like Australia and, or Canada.
And I mean, I get it because a lot of people did come to this country under non-merit-based purposes, so they’re really reluctant to let that go. But I do think that Biden, by changing the immigration status quo and by basically just allowing tens of millions, potentially tens of millions, at the very least 12 million new entrants to come to the US under these pretenses of complete disorder and of no conduct, really broke a lot of people’s understanding and even mercy in that regard. And so that was obviously a massive part of Trump’s victory.
Czar in and of itself is frankly a very flawed position in the White House, and it’s one that I really wish we would move away from. I understand why we do it. It’s basically to do a national security advisor inter-agency convener to accomplish certain goals. That said, there is a person, Stephen Miller, who will be in the White House, the Deputy White House chief of staff who has well-founded beliefs, experience in government and rock solid ideology on this, which I think would also give him the ability to work with Homan to pull that off.
That said, a corollary to this, and frankly this is the one I’m the most mystified yet, is Kristi Noem as the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. Let me just lay this out for people because people don’t know what this is. The Department of Homeland Security, 90% of the time the way you’re going to interact with them is TSA. You don’t think about it. But people don’t know. The Department of Homeland Security is one of the largest law enforcement if maybe the largest law enforcement agency in the world. It’s gigantic. You have extraordinary statutory power to be able to prove investigations. You have border patrol, ICE, TSA, CBP, all these other agencies that report up to you. But most importantly for this, you will be the public face of mass deportation.
I was there in the White House briefing room last time around when Kirstjen Nielsen, who was the DHS secretary under Donald Trump, and specifically the one who enforced child separation for a limited period of time. She was a smart woman. She has long experience in government. And honestly, she melted under the criticism. Kirsti Noem is the governor of South Dakota. I mean, that’s great. You have a little bit of executive experience, but to be honest, I mean you have no law enforcement background. You have no, frankly, with understanding of what it is going to be like to be the secretary of one of the most controversial programs in modern American history.
You have to go on television and defend that every single day, a literal job requirement under Donald Trump. And you will have to have extraordinary command of the facts. You have to have a very high intellect. You have to have the ability to really break through. And I mean, we all watch how she handled that situation with her dog and her interviews. And that does not give me confidence that she will be able to do all that well in the position.
The thing is that you need to be able to have extraordinary oversight. You need a great team with you. You need to make sure that everything is being done by the book. The way that the media is being handled is that you throw every question back in their face and you say, “Well, you either talk about crime or you talk about the enforceability of the law, the necessity.” I mean, I just I think articulated a very coherent case for why we need much less high levels of immigration to the United States. And I am the son of people who immigrated to this country.
But one of the favorite phrases I heard from this, from a guy named Mark Corcoran, who’s a center for immigration studies, is, “We don’t make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandparents. We make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandchildren.” And that is an extraordinary and good way to put it. And in fact, I would say it’s a triumph of the American system that somebody whose family benefited from the immigration regime and was able to come here. My parents had PhDs, came here legally, applied, spent thousands of dollars through the process. Can arrive at the conclusion that actually we need to care about all of our fellow American citizens. I’m not talking about other Indians or whatever. I’m talking about all of us. I care about everybody who is here in this country. But fundamentally, that will mean that we are going to have to exclude some people from the US.
And another thing that the open borders people don’t ever really grapple with is that even within their own framework, it makes no sense. for example, a common left-wing talking point is that it’s America’s fault that El Salvador and Honduras and Central America is fucked up. And so because of that, we have a responsibility to take all those people in because our fault. Or Haiti, right? But if you think about it, America is responsible, and I’m just being honest, for destroying and ruining a lot of countries. They just don’t benefit from the geographic ability to walk to the United States.
I mean, if we’re doing grievance politics, Iraqis have way more of a claim to be able to come here than anybody from El Salvador who’s talking about something that happened in 1982. Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense. Even under the-
One of the things that whenever you visit India and you see a country with over a billion people, you’re like, “Holy shit. This is crazy,” and you understand both the sheer numbers of the amount of people involved, and also, there is nothing in the world you could ever do to solve all problems for everybody. It’s a very complex and dynamic problem, and it’s really nice to be bleeding heart and to say, “Oh, well, we have responsibility to this and to all mankind and all that,” but it doesn’t work. It doesn’t work with the nation state. It doesn’t work with the sovereign nation. We’re the luckiest people in the history of the world to live here in this country, and you need to protect it and protecting it requires really thinking about the fundamentals of immigration itself and not telling us stories.
There’s a famous moment from the Trump White House where Jim Acosta, CNN white House correspondent, got into it with Stephen Miller, who will be the current deputy chief, and he was like, “What do you say,” something along the lines, “to people who say you’re violating that quote on the Statue of Liberty, ‘Give me you’re tired, you’re poor, you’re hungry,’?” all of that,” the Emma Lazarus quote. And Stephen very logically was like, “What level of immigration comports with the Emma Lazarus quote? Is it 200,000 people a year? Is it 300? Is it 1 million? Is it 1.5 million?”
And that’s such a great way of putting it because there is no limiting principle on Emma Lazarus quote. There is, when you start talking, honestly, you’re like, “Okay. We live in X, Y, and Z society with X, Y, and Z GDP. People who are coming here should be able to benefit for themselves and us not rely on welfare, not be people who we have to take care of after because we have our own problems here right now and who are the population and the types of people that we can study and look at who will be able to benefit, and based on that, yeah, immigration is great,” but there are a lot of economic, legal and societal reasons for why you definitely don’t want the current level.
But another thing is even if we turn the switch and we still let in 1,000,005 people a year under the chain family-based migration, I think it would be a colossal mistake because it’s not rooted in the idea that people who are coming to America are explicitly doing so at the benefit of America. It’s doing so based on the familial connections of people who already gamed the immigration system to be able to come here.
I have a lot of family in India and I love them, and some of them are actually very talented and qualified. If they wanted to come here, I think they should be able to apply on their own merit and that should have nothing to do with their familial status of the fact that I’m a US citizen.
The point about assimilation is twofold. One is that you should have the capacity to inherit the understanding of the American character that has nothing to do with race, and that’s so unique that I can sit here as a child of people from India and has such a deep appreciation for the Scots Irish. I consider myself American first, and one of the things that I really love about that is that I have no historical relationship to anybody who fought in the Civil War, but I feel such kinship with a lot of the people who did and reading the memoirs and the ideas of those that did because that same mindset of the victors and the values that they were able to instill in the country for 150 years later gives me the ability to connect to them. And that’s such an incredible victory on their part and that’s such a unique thing.
In almost every other country in the world, in China and India or wherever, you’re kind of like what you are. You’re a Hindu, you’re a Jew, you’re a Han Chinese, you’re a Uyghur or you’re Tibetan, something like that. You’re born into it. But really here, it was one of the only places in the world where you can really connect to that story and that spirit and the compounding effect of all of these different people who have come to America, and that is a celebration of immigration as an idea.
But immigration is also a discrete policy, and that policy was really screwed up by the Biden administration. And so we can celebrate the idea and also pursue a policy for all of the people in the US, our citizens to actually be able to benefit. And look, it’s going to be messy, and honestly, I still don’t know yet if Trump will be able to pursue actual mass deportation just because I think that I’m not sure the public is ready for it. I do support mass deportation. I don’t know if the public is ready for it. I think, I don’t know. I’ll have to see because there’s a lot of different ways that you can do it.
There’s mandatory E-Verify, which requires businesses to basically verify you’re a US citizen or you’re here legally whenever they employ you, which is not the law of the land currently, which is crazy, by the way. You can cut off or tax remittance payments, which are payments that are sent back to other countries like Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. Again, illustrating my economic migrant point. There are a lot of various different ways where you can just make it more difficult to be illegally here in the US so people will self-deport, but if he does pursue real mass deportation, that will be a flashpoint in America.
The truth is is America right now is built on cheap labor. It’s not fair to the consumer, it’s not fair to the immigrants, the illegal immigrants themselves, and it’s not fair to the natural born citizen. The natural born citizen has his wages suppressed for competition by tens of millions of people who are willing to work at lower wages. They have to compete for housing, for social services. I mean, just even basic stuff at a societal level, it’s not fair to them. It’s definitely not fair to the other person because, I mean, whenever people say who’s going to build your houses or whatever, you’re endorsing this quasi-legal system where uninsured laborers from Mexico, they have no guarantee of wages, they’re getting paid cash under the table, they are living 10 to a room, they’re sending Mexican remittance payments back just so that their children can eat. That’s not really fair to that person either.
So that’s the point. The point is is that it will lead to a lot of social upheaval, but this gets to my Kristi Noem point as well is you need to be able to articulate a lot of what I just said here because if you don’t, it’s going to go south real quick.
One of the things they always say there, “Oh, they’re law-abiding, they’re great people,” and all that. I agree. Okay? By and large, I’m not saying these are bad people, but I am saying if they’re not bad and they’re law-abiding and they’re citizens and thoughtful and all that, they can fix their own countries and they did in El Salvador. That’s the perfect example.
Look at the dramatic drop in their crime rate. Bukele is one of the most popular leaders in all of South America. That is proof positive that you can change things around despite perhaps the legacy of US intervention. So to just say this idea that because it’s America’s fault that they’re screwed up, it takes agency away from them.
Another really key part of this dishonesty, this really gets to Springfield and the whole Haitian thing because everybody, beyond the eating cats and dogs, everybody does not even acknowledge because when they’re like, “The Haitians are here legally,” they need to actually think about the program. The program is called TPS. So let me explain that. TPS is called Temporary Protected Status. Note, what’s the first word on that? Temporary. What does that mean? TPS was developed under a regime in which let’s say that there was a catastrophic … I think this is a real example. I think there was a volcano or an earthquake or something where people were granted TPS to come to the United States, and the idea was they were going to go back after it was safe. They just never went back.
There are children born in the United States today who are adults, who are the descendants of people who are still living in the US under TPS. That’s a perfect example of what Vivek says is dishonest. You can’t mass de facto legalize people by saying that they’re here temporarily because of a program or because of something that happened in their home country when the reality is that for all intents and purposes, we are acknowledging them as full legal migrants. So even the term migrant to these Haitians in Springfield makes no sense because they’re supposed to be here under TPS. Migrant implies permanency.
So the language is all dishonest and people don’t want to tell you about the things I just said about chain migration. The vast majority of Americans don’t even know how the immigration system works. They don’t understand what I just said about TPS. They don’t really understand the insanity of asylum law, where you can just literally throw up your hands and say, “I fear for my life,” and you get to live here for four or five years before your court date even happens, and by that time, you get a work permit or whatever, you can get housing, like you just said, in substandard conditions, and you can kind of just play the game and wait before a deportation order comes, and even if it does, you never have to leave because there’s no ice agent or whatever who’s going to enforce it. So the whole system is nuts right now, and we need complete systematic reform that burns it all to the ground.
And in fact, a lot of people were bringing children here who weren’t even theirs, who they weren’t even related to or couldn’t even prove it, were bringing them to get around the prosecution for illegal entry. So I’m not defending child separation. I think it was horrible or whatever, but if I gave you the context, it does seem like a very tricky problem in terms of do we enforce the law or not, how are we able to do that, and the solution, honestly, is what Donald Trump did was remain in Mexico and then pursue a complete rewrite of the way that we have US asylum law applied and of asylum adjudication and really just about enforcing our actual laws.
So what I try to explain to people is the immigration system right now is a patchwork of this deeply dishonest, such a great word, deeply dishonest system in which you use the system and set it up in such ways that illegal immigration is actually one of the easiest things to do to accomplish immigration to the United States. That is wrong. My parents had to apply. It wasn’t easy.
Do you know in India there’s a temple called the Visa Temple where you walk 108 times around it, which is like a lucky number, and you do it when you’re applying for a visa to the United States. It costs a lot of money and it’s hard. People get rejected all the time. There’s billions of people across the world who would love to be able to come here, and many of them want to do so legally and they should have to go through a process. The current way it works is it’s easier to get here illegally than it is legally. I think that’s fundamentally right. It’s also unfair to people like us whose parents did come here legally.
The other thing is is that, like I just said, the biggest beneficiary of illegal immigration is big business. So if you think they’re going to take this one lying down, absolutely not. They will fight for everything that they have to keep their pool of cheap labor because it’s great for them. I think JD said a story. I think he was on Rogan about how he talked to a hotelier chain guy and he was like, “Yeah, it’s just terrible. They would take away our whole workforce.” And he was like, “Do you hear yourself in terms of what you’re talking, you’re bragging about?” but that’s real. That’s a real thing.
And that, Tyson Foods and all these other people, that’s another really sad part is … What I mean by second class citizenship is this presumption, first of all, that Americans think it’s too disgusting to process meat or to work in a field. I think anybody will do anything for the right wage, first of all, but second is the conditions in a lot of those facilities are horrible and they’re covered up for a reason, not only in terms of the way that businesses, they actually conduct themselves, but also to cover up their illegal immigrant workforce. So honestly, I think it could make things better for everything.
And don’t forget, Congress has to pay for all of this. So we can have DOGE or we can have mass deportation. So those two things are kind of irreconcilable, actually. There’s a lot of competing influences at play that people are not being real about at all.
Now, two things. Number one is, as I predicted, DOGE would become a “Blue Ribbon Commission”. So this is a non-statutory Blue Ribbon Commission that has been given authority to Vivek Ramaswamy and to Elon Musk. Secondary, their recommendations to government should be complete by July of 2026 according to the press release released by Trump. First of all, what that will mean is they’re probably going to need private funding to even set all this up. That’s great, not a problem for Elon, but you’re basically going to be able to have to commission GAO reports, Government Accountability Office and other reports and fact-finding missions across the government, which is fantastic. Trump can even empower you to go through to every agency and to collect figures.
None of it matters one iota if Republican appropriators in the House of Representatives care what you have to say. Historically, they don’t give a shit what the executive office has to say. So every year, the president releases his own budget. It used to mean something, but in the last decade or so, it’s become completely meaningless. The House Ways and Means Committee and the People’s House are the ones who originate all appropriations and set up spending. So that’s one is that DOGE in and of itself has no power. It has no ability to compel or force people to do anything. Its entire case for being, really, if you think about it mechanically, is to try and convince and provide a report to Republican legislators to be able to cut spending. So that’s that. Now, we all know how Congress takes to government reports and whether they get acted on or not. So that’s number one.
Number two is the figures that Elon is throwing out there. Again, I want to give them some advice because people do not understand federal government spending. The absolute vast majority of government spending is entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are untouchable under Donald Trump and their most politically popular programs in the world, and military spending, discretionary non-military spending. I don’t have the exact figure in front of me. It’s a very, very small part of the federal budget.
Now, within that small slice, about 90% of that eight is bipartisan and is supported by everybody. NOAA, you know the hurricane guys? Like people like that, people who are flying into the eye of the hurricane, people who are government inspectors of X, Y and Z. The parts that are controversial that you’re actually able to touch, things like welfare programs like food stamps is an extraordinary small slice.
So what’s the number we put out there? Five trillion? Something like that? There is only one way to do that, and realistically under the current thing, you have to radically change the entire way that the Pentagon buys everything. And I support that, but I just want to be very, very clear, but I haven’t seen enough energy around that. There’s this real belief in the US that we spend billions on all of these programs that are doing complete bullshit, but the absolute vast majority of it is military spending and entitlements. Trump has made clear entitlements are off the table. It’s not going to happen.
So the way that you’re going to be able to cut realistically military spending over a decade long period is to really change the way that the United States procures military equipment, hands out government contracts. Elon actually does have the background to be able to accomplish this because he has had to wrangle with SpaceX and the bullshit that Boeing has been pulling for over a decade, but I really want everybody’s expectations to be very set around this. Just remember, non-statutory, Blue Ribbon.
So if he’s serious about it, I just laid out all of these hurdles that he’s going to have to overcome, and I’m not saying him and Vivek aren’t serious dudes, but you got to really know the system to be able to accomplish this.
Now, I’m not saying they can’t be pressured, but that example I just gave on Rick Scott is a very important one of he literally endorsed somebody for leader, so did Tucker Carlson, so did a lot of people online, and only 13 senators voted for Rick Scott. The truth is is that they don’t care. They’re set up where they’re marginally popular in their own home states, they’ll be able to win their primaries, and that’s all they really need to do to get elected, and they have six-year terms. They’re not even up for four years.
So will Elon still be interested in politics six years from now? That’s a legitimate question for a Republican senator. So maybe he could get the House of Representatives to sign off maybe on some of his things, but there’s no guarantee that the Senate is going to agree with any of that.
There’s a story that Caro tells in Master of the Senate book, which I love, where Thomas Jefferson was in Paris during the writing of the Constitution, and he asked Washington, he said, “Why did you put in a Senate, a bicameral legislature?” And Washington said, “Why did you pour your tea into a saucer?” and Jefferson goes, “To cool it,” and Washington says, “Just so,” to explain it. He was a man of very few words. He was a brilliant man.
So your ability as the executive to be a good steward of the taxpayer money and to redesign a system which I actually think Elon could be good at this and Vivek too in terms of their entrepreneurial spirit is the entire Pentagon procurement thing, it needs to be burned to the ground. Number one, it’s bad for the Pentagon. It gives them substandard equipment. It rewards very old weapons systems and programs and thinking that can be easily defeated by people who are studying that for vulnerabilities. The perfect example is all of this drone warfare in Ukraine and in Russia. I mean, drone warfare costs almost nothing, and yet drone swarms and hypersonic missiles pose huge dangers to US systems, which cost more than hundreds of billions of dollars.
So my point is that giving nimble procurement and systemic change in the way that we think about executing the mission that Congress does give you actually could save the most amount of money in the long run. That’s where I would really focus in on.
The other one is, counter to everything I just said, is maybe they would listen. Maybe the Republicans are like, “Yeah, okay. Let’s do it.” The problem again though is swing state people who need to get reelected, they need to do one thing. They need to deliver for their district. They need to run on stuff, and nobody has ever run on cutting money for your state. They have run on bringing money to your state. And that’s why earmarks and a lot of these other things are extraordinarily popular in Congress is because it’s such an easy way to show constituents how you’re working for them whenever it does come reelection time. So it’s a very difficult system.
And I also want to tell people who are frustrated by this, I share your frustration, but the system is designed to work this way. And for two centuries, the Senate has stood as a bulwark against literally every popular change, and because of that, it’s designed to make sure that it’s so popular for long enough that it has to become inevitable before the status quo can change. That’s really, really frustrating, but you should take comfort in that it’s always been that way, so it’s been okay.
What was it like to be alive in the United States in 1840? Right? Nobody thinks about that really because it’s kind of an in-between time in history. There are people who lived their entire lives, who were born, who had to live through those times, who were just as conscientious and intelligent as you and I are and were just trying to figure shit out and things felt really big. So the Age of Acrimony is a time where it’s almost completely ignored outside of the Gilded age aspect.
But like you just said, it was a time where progressive reform of government and of the tension between civil rights, extraordinary wealth and democracy and really the reigning in of big business, so many of our foundations happened exactly in that time. And I take a lot of comfort from that book because one of the things I learned from the book is that voter participation is highest when people are pissed off, not when they’re happy, and that’s such a counterintuitive thing, but voter participation goes down when the system is working.
So 2020, right? I think we can all agree it was very tense election. That’s also why it had the highest voter participation ever. 2024, very high rates of participation. Same thing. People are pissed off, and that’s actually what drives them to the vote, but something that I take comfort in that is that people being pissed off and people going out to vote, it actually does have major impact on the system because otherwise, the status quo is basically allowed to continue and so-
I mean, even in the party boss era, a lot of the people we revere really came out of that. People like Abraham Lincoln. I mean, I don’t think Abraham Lincoln would have won a party primary in 1860. There’s no chance. He won, luck, thank God, from an insane process in the 1860 Republican Convention. People should go read about that because that was wild. I think we were this close to not having Lincoln as president. And, yeah, I mean, Teddy Roosevelt, there’s so many that I could point to who made great impacts on history. So the system does find a way to still produce good stuff.
And so even though that makes absolutely no sense, because they’re all work, there are literal legal statutes in place that prevent you from doing the most efficient thing possible. So for some reason, we have to have a ton of Spanish speakers in SouthCom, in the US Command that is responsible for South America, who literally cannot help with a crisis at the border. Now, maybe you can find some legal chicanery to make that work, but, man, you got to have an attorney general who knows what he’s doing. You need a White House counsel. You need to make sure that shit stands up in a court of law. I mean, it’s not so simple. Whereas let’s say you have a software right here and you want to get a new software, you can just do it. You can hire whoever you want. When you’re the government, there’s a whole process you got to go through about bidding, and it just takes forever and it is so inefficient.
But unfortunately, the inefficiency is really derivative of a lot of legal statutes, and that is something that, again, actually radically successful Doge, quote-unquote, would be study the law, and then change it. Instead of cost- cutting, cut this program or whatever, like I just said about why do different systems use payroll, just say that you can change the statute under which new software can be updated, let’s say, after 90 days. I’ve heard stories of people who work for the government who still have IBM mainframe in 2024 that they’re still working, because those systems have never been updated. There’s also a big problem with a lot of this clearance stuff. That’s where a lot of inefficiency happens because a lot of contractors can only work based upon previous clearance that they already got. Achieving a clearance is very expensive. It’s very lengthy process. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be, talking about security clearance, but it does naturally create a very small pool that you can draw some contracts fund.
And I even mean stuff like the janitor at the Pentagon needs a security service, right? So clearance. So there’s only five people who can even apply for that contract. Well, naturally, in an interim monopoly like that, he’s going to jack his price up because he literally has a moat around his product. Whereas if you were hiring a… Whatever, anybody for anything, that type of credentialism and legal regime, it doesn’t matter at all. So there are a million problems like this that people in government run into, and that is what I would see is the most successful.
So I talked previously about the professional managerial class and the managerial revolution. Elon is one of the few people who’s ever built a multi-billion-dollar company who has not actually fallen victim to the managerial revolution and against entrepreneurship and innovation that happens there. There are very few people who can do it. Elon, Steve Jobs. But what do we learn is that, unfortunately, after Steve died, Apple basically did succumb to the managerial revolution and has become the product… They make all their money by printing services and making it impossible to leave this ecosystem as opposed to building the most cool product ever. As much as I love my Vision Pro, don’t get me wrong.
Think about our cynical attitude towards politicians today. That is largely the fault of Lyndon Johnson and of Richard Nixon and that entire fallout period of Vietnam. Vietnam, in particular, really broke the American character and its ability and its relationship with government, and we’ve never recovered faith in institutions ever since that. And it’s really unfortunate. So what makes me hopeful, at least this time, is anytime a president wins a popular vote and an election is they have the ability to reset and to actually try and build something that is new. And so what I would hope is that this is different from the first Trump administration in which the mandate for Donald Trump is actually carried out competently. Yes, he can do his antics, which got him elected. At this point, we can’t deny it. The McDonald’s thing is hilarious. It’s funny. It is. People love it. People like the podcasting. People like-
Households under $100,000 voted for Donald Trump. Maybe they didn’t do so for economic reasons. I think a lot of them did for economic, a lot of them did for immigration, for cultural. But you still owe them something. And I would hope that they could carry something out in that respect that is not a similar continuation and chaotic vibe of the first time where everything felt like it’d explode at any time with staffing, with even his policy or what he cared about or his ability to pursue. And a lot of that does come back to personnel. So I’m concerned in some respects, I’m not thrilled in some respects, I’m happy in some respects, but it remains to be seen how he’s going to do it.
I once drove past… It was in rural Nevada, and I was driving and I drove past the biggest sign I’ve ever seen, political sign, to this day. And it was in 2020. It just said, “Trump, fuck your feelings.” And I still believe that is the most coherent MAGA thing I’ve ever seen. Because everyone’s always like, “How can a neocon, and Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK and all these other people, how can they all exist under the same umbrella?” And I’m like, “It’s very simple. All of them have rejected the cultural elite, in their own way, certainly, but they’ve arrived at the same place. It’s an umbrella. And it’s an umbrella fundamentally, which has nothing to do with the status quo and with the currently established cultural elite. That doesn’t mean they’re not elite and they’re not rich in their own regards, that doesn’t mean they don’t disagree, but that’s the one thing that unites the entire party.” And so that’s the way I would put it.
Trans, in particular, orientation about… Actually, immigration may be the biggest one. Because if you look at the history of Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders was a person who railed against open borders and against mass migration for years. There are famous interviews of him on YouTube with Lou Dobbs, who’s one of the hardcore immigration guys, and they agree with each other. And Lou is like, “Bernie’s one of the only guys out there.” Bernie, at the end of the day, he had to succumb to the cultural left, and it’s changing attitudes on mass immigration. There’s some famous clips from 2015 in a Vox interview that he gave where he started… I think he started talking about how open borders is a Koch brothers libertarian concept, right? Because Bernie is basically of a European welfare state tradition. European welfare states are very simply understood. We have high taxes, high services, low rates of immigration. Because we have high taxes and high services, we have a limited pool of people who can experience and take those services.
He used to understand that. He changed a lot of his attitude. Bernie also… I will say, look, he’s a courageous man and a courageous politician. As late as 2017, he actually endorsed a pro-life candidate because he said that that pro-life candidate was pro-worker. And he’s like, “At the end of the day, I care about pro-worker policy.” He took a ton of shit for it, and I don’t think he’s done it since. So the sad part that’s really happened is that a lot of left populist agenda and other has become subsumed in the hysteria around cultural leftism, wokeism, whatever the hell you want to call it. And ultimately, that cultural leftism was the thing that really united the two wings of that party. And that’s really why MAGA is very opposed to that. They’re really not the same, but the left populist can still be anti-establishment. That’s the key.
And so the point around this on question of whether Bernie could have won in 2016, I don’t know. Krystal seems to think so. I’m skeptical. I’m skeptical for a variety of reasons. I think the culture is honestly one of them. One of Trump’s core issues in 2016 was immigration. And Bernie and him did not agree on immigration. And if immigration, even if people did support Bernie Sanders and his vision for working class people, the debates and the understanding about what it would look like, like a healthcare system, which literally would pay for illegal immigrants, I think he would’ve gotten killed on that. But I could be wrong. I will never know what that looked like.
Obviously, it backfired in their face, which is really funny. But there were a million examples like that when they attacked Bernie for endorsing a pro-life politician. He never did it again. They attacked Bernie for having Bernie Bros. People online, the bros who were [inaudible 01:56:40] Bernie, and it was his fault. His supporters would say nasty things about Elizabeth Warren, and he would defend straight himself and be like, “Yes, I’m sorry. Please, my bros,” he was like, “Stop that.”
2016 is different because they didn’t full-on have that love and necessity of winning. By the way, this is a strategic advantage that the Democrats have. Democrats just care about winning. The current base of the party, all they want to do is win. Republican base? They don’t give a shit about winning. They just love Trump. So it’s nice to win. But one of those where they will express their id for what they really want. Now, it’s worked out for them because it turns out, that’s a very palpable political force. But one of the reasons why you won’t see me up here doing James Carville 40 more years is there is a law of something called thermostatic public opinion, where the thermostat, it changes a lot whenever you actually… So when you have a left-wing president in power, the country goes right. When you have a right-wing president in power, the country goes left.
Amazing. Right? You can actually look at a graph of economic attitudes from the two months where Joe Biden became president after Donald Trump. So Republicans, Trump was president in the last year in office, the economy’s great. Two months later, the economy is horrible. That is a perfect example of thermostatic opinion. And I’m not counting these Democrats out. 2004, George W. Bush wins the popular vote. He has a historic mandate to continue in Iraq. By ’06, he’s toasted. We have a massive midterm election. And by ’08, we’re writing books about 40 more years, and how there’s never going to be a Republican in the office ever again. So things can change a lot in a very short period of time.
And imagine the consequences of that. We would have no Iraq… I mean, I’m not saying he was a great man. We probably still would’ve had the financial crisis, and there’s still a lot of bad stuff that would’ve happened. But he was a popular dude, and I wouldn’t say he had the best judgment at times presidentially… Definitely not personally, but presidentially. But I’m pretty confident we would’ve not gone into the Iraq war. And so that’s where it really cost us. If you’re left wing and you’re talking about Obama, yeah, I think Obama probably would’ve won in 2016. Although it’s a counterfactual, because Obama was never challenged in the same way that MAGA was able to, to the liberal consensus. Romney really ran this awful campaign, honestly, about cutting spending. It was very traditional Republican. It was deeply unpopular. The autopsy of that election was we actually need to be more pro-immigration. That literally was the autopsy. But Trump understood the assignment.
There are two people who I so deeply respect for their political bets. Peter Thiel and Donald Trump. So one of the books that I recommended called The Unwinding by George Packer, he actually talks about Peter Thiel there. This is in 2013. And Thiel talks about, he was like, “Whoever runs for office next, they don’t need to run on an optimistic message. They need to run on a message that everything is fucked up and that we need to… And if you think about, that’s why Thiel’s endorsement of Trump with the American carnage message is… I mean, it was shocking at the time, but he had that fundamental insight that that’s what the American people wanted. Trump too comes out of an election in 2012 where the literal GOP autopsy, the report produced by the party, says, “We need to be pro-mass immigration.” What happens? Immediately after 2012, they start to go for mass immigrant… Basically, they go for these amnesty plans, the so-called Gang of Eight plan, Marco Rubio, and all of this in 2013, it falls apart, but Republicans get punished by their base in [inaudible 02:04:04]-
Then in 2015, Trump comes down the escalator, and he gives the message on immigration that the GOP base has been roaring and wanting to hear now but that nobody wanted to listen to them. That was his fundamental insight. That bet was a colossal and a Titanic political bet at a time when all political ideology and thought process would’ve said that you should come out on the other side, which is where Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and all these other guys were effectively there in varying different ways, like they were hawkish or whatever. But Trump just had such a monopoly on that as an idea.
That’s why he wins the 2016 primary. Then paired with immigration, a hard line position on immigration, is this American carnage idea that actually everything is wrong. The American dream has gone. “We will stop this American carnage.” I think American Carnage is one of the most important inaugural speeches ever given in American history. Put it up against every single other speech, there’s nothing else like it. But that was what the country wanted at the time.
That’s what great politicians are able to do, is they’re able to suss something out. That’s also why Peter Thiel is who he is because he saw that in 2000. Imagine what it takes to come out of the 2012 election and to be honestly totally contrarian to the entire national mood and this entire theory of Obama-esque star politics and say, “No, you need somebody who runs on the opposite of that to win.”
A moment I think about a lot with Trump and just being able to unleash the rage of the Republican base is in the 2012 debate, Candy Crowley was the moderator with Mitt Romney, and she fact-checked him famously. This was when fact checking was shocking in a presidential debate. She said something about Benghazi, and she was like, “No, he did say that.” She corrected Romney on behalf of Obama. To this day, it’s questionable whether she was even right. Romney was just like, “Oh, he did? Okay.” Trump would’ve been like, “Excuse me. Excuse me. Look at this woman.” He would’ve gone off.
I think about that moment because that’s what the Republican base wanted to hear. But also, it turns out, America had a lot of festering feelings about the mainstream media that it needed unleashed, and Trump was just this incredible vector to just blow up this system, which, if you asked me about optimism, that’s the thing I’m most optimistic about.
In 2008, Obama was the underdog. Actually, here’s the critical thing. Obama was losing with Black people. Why? Black Democrats simply did not believe that white people were vote for a Black guy. So Barack Obama goes to this white state, Iowa, all in on the Iowa caucuses, and shocks the world by winning the Iowa caucuses. Overnight, there is a shift in public amongst the Black population in South Carolina that says, “Oh, shit, he actually could win,” and he comes out, and he wins South Carolina. That’s basically was the death knell for the Hillary Clinton campaign. The problem is by moving South Carolina up and by making it first along with other more pro-establishment friendly places, what do we do? We make it so that Barack Obama can never happen again. We make it so that an older base of Democratic Party voters who listens to the elites can never have their assumptions challenged. That’s one of the worst things Joe Biden did. I talked about his arrogance. He was so arrogant, he changed the freaking primary system. He was so arrogant, he refused to do a debate. I mean, imagine history. How lucky are we honestly that Joe Biden agreed to do that debate with Donald Trump early? Again, that was his arrogance. I think we’re so lucky for it because if we hadn’t gotten… We got to understand as a country how cooked he was and how fake everything was behind the scenes in front of all of our eyes. They tried for three straight years to make sure that that would never happen. It’s still such a crime, honestly, against the American people.
Another one is John Adams. I love and revere John Adams. He’s my favorite Founding Father. Him and John Quincy, they don’t get nearly enough of their due. They were some of the most intelligent, well-considered. They were family men. The love and the relationship between John and Abigail Adams is literally legendary. I think it’s amazing, especially in the context of the 1700s, the way that he would take her counsel into conversations and her own ability. She would sit there and go toe-to-toe as much with Thomas Jefferson. There are some who are great, who are really, really good presidents, who have good judgment and who are really good people and really think deeply about the world and have really cool personal lives. But also the vast majority of them… I would say especially in the modern era and where the price of the presidency extracts everything that you have, you have to be willing to give everything. That’s not a price that most people want to pay.
I also think that, oh, God, just Washington as a system, it will burn you. It will extract absolutely everything that you can give it. At the end of the day, everyone always talks about this, it’s hilarious, how Trump is the only president not to age in office. I actually think it’s crazy when you look at the photos of how he actually looks better today than he did whenever he went into the office. That’s amazing, and it actually says a lot about how his mind works. I think Trump is pure id. Having observed him a little bit, both at the White House and having interviewed him, it’s calculating, but it’s also pure id, which is very interesting. The ones who are the thinkers, guys like Obama and others who are really in their heads, it’s a nightmare. It’s a nightmare. Apparently, Obama would only sleep four hours a night.
The other case would be is that in this modern era has been defined by access to money. She’s one of the greatest fundraisers in Democratic Party history. Again, consistently, Obama, Kamala, all those people come and go. But she’s always had a very central understanding of the ability to fundraise, to cultivate good relationships with Democratic Party elites all across the country, use that money and dole it out to her caucus.
She also was really good at making sure that legislation that came to the floor actually had the votes to do so. She ran an extremely well-ordered process in the House of Representatives, one in which you were able to reconcile problems within her office. It didn’t usually go public. Then it would make it to the floor, and it would pass so that there would be no general media frenzy and Democrats in disarray or any of that. Put that on display with the Republicans, and we’ve had multiple Speakers all resign or get fired in a 16-year period. That’s pretty remarkable. Basically, ever since John Boehner decided to leave in, what was it, 2012? I forget the exact year. My point is that if you compare her record to the longevity on the Republican side, it is astounding.
The other interesting thing is that she also has pulled off one of the real tests of political power is, can you rule even when you don’t have the title anymore? She gave up the leader position to Hakeem Jeffries, but everybody knows she pulled Joe Biden out of the race. That’s pretty interesting. She’s technically just a back-bencher, a nobody member of Congress, but we all know that’s bullshit. So that’s actually a very important case of political power is, can you rule without the title? If you can, then you truly are powerful. So I would make a good case for her, yeah. She’s done a lot of remarkable stuff for her party.
I will say they played Trump like a fiddle, man. Last time around, they were able to. They really got him. One of the craziest elements that I covered was Trump basically threatened to shut down the government and actually did shut down the government for a period of time over a dispute over border wall funding. Pelosi and Schumer, despite genuine mass hysteria in the Democratic Party with even some people who were willing to try and to strike a deal, never wavered and actually basically won and forced Trump to back down. Not a lot of MAGA people want to admit it, but that was honestly really embarrassing for the Trump administration at that time. The amount of discipline that it took for her, and Chuck to a lesser extent, but for the two of them to pull that off, it was honestly impressive that they were able to do that, even when the president has so much political power. It literally shut down the government over it.
For example, number one, all the seats in the Briefing Room, those seats are assigned by the White House Correspondents’ Association, not by the White House itself. The White House Correspondents’ Association requires you to apply for a seat. That adjudication process can take literally years for bylaws, elections, and all these things to do. This means that they can slow roll the entrance of new media online outlets who are allowed into the room. The reason it really matters not having a seat is if you don’t have a seat, you have to get there early and stand in the wings, like I used to, and raise your hand like this and just hope and pray that the press secretary can see. It’s extremely inconvenient. I’m talking, I have to get there hours early at a chance during a 15-minute briefing.
So one of the things is that Trump has is he owes a huge part of his election to coming on podcasts and to new media. Now, because of that, it’s really important that the White House Correspondents’ Association, which is a literal guild cartel that keeps people out of the White House and credentials itself and creates this opaque mechanism through which they control access to asking the press secretary questions, is destroyed. There are a lot of different ways you can do this. Because what nobody gets, too, is that all of these rules are unofficial. For example, they’re just traditions. The White House is like, “Yeah, it’s our building, but you guys figure it out,” because that’s a longstanding tradition.
Let me give you another insane tradition that currently exists in the White House. The Associated Press or the Associated Press correspondent gets to start the briefing, traditionally. They get the first question. They also get to end the briefing. When they think it’s been enough time, they’ll be like, “Okay, Karine Jean-Pierre, thank you,” and that calls the briefing over. What? You’re not even in the White House Correspondents’ Association. You literally just happen to work for the Associated Press. Why? Why do we allow that to happen? So number one, stop doing that. To their credit, the Trump people didn’t really do that, but it’s a longstanding tradition.
The other thing is that what nobody gets either is that the first row is all television networks for logistical reasons so that they can do their little stand-ups with their mic and say, “I’m reporting for [inaudible 02:27:00].” Well, what people don’t seem to know is that all the television networks are basically going to ask some version of the same question. The reason they do that is because they need a clip of their correspondent going after the White House press secretary all out, Robert Mueller, like whenever I was there. So you get the same goddamn version of the stupid political questions over and over again.
The Briefing Room is designed for traditional media, and they have all the access in the world. So in an election where you owe your victory, at least in part, to new media and recognizing the changing landscape, you need to change the conduit of information to the American people. And in an election, I don’t know if you saw this, but election night coverage on cable news was down 25%, just in four years, 25%. That’s astounding. Cable news had a monopoly on election night for my entire lifetime, and yet, my show had record ratings that night.
Look, I’m a small slice of the puzzle here. We’ve got Candice Owens, Patrick Bet-David, Tim Pool, David Pakman, TYT, all these other people. From what I understand, all of us blew it out that night because millions of Americans watched it on YouTube. We even partnered with some Decision Desk HQs, so we had live data. We could make state calls. We’re just a silly little YouTube show. My point, though, is that in an election where the vast majority of Americans under the age of 55 are listening to podcasts, consuming new media, and are not watching cable news, where the median age of CNN, which is the youngest viewership, is 68. 68 is the median. Statistically, what does that tell us? There’s a decent number of people who are watching CNN who are in their ’80s and in their ’90s.
Yeah, I’m glad you brought up Alex, because he deserves a tremendous shout out, Alex Bruesewitz. He was the pioneer of the podcast strategy for the Donald J. Trump campaign. He got on your show. He was able to get on Andrew Schulz’s show, Rogan. He was the internal force that pushed a lot of this. My personal hope is that somebody like Alex is elevated in the traditional White House bureaucracy, that the number of credentials that are issued to these mainstream media outlets is cut, and there’s a new lottery process put in place where people with large audiences are invited.
I also want to make a case here for why I think it’s really important for people like you and others who don’t have as much traditional media experience to come and practice some capital J journalism because it will sharpen you, too, giving you access in that pressure cooker environment. Having to really sit there and spar a little bit with a public official and not have as long necessarily as you’re used to, it really hones your news media skills, your news gathering skills, and it will make you a better interviewer in the long run.
Because a lot of the things that I have learned have just been through osmosis. I’ve just lived in DC. I’ve been so lucky, I’ve had a lot of cool jobs, and I’ve just been able to experience a lot of this stuff. So I’m really hoping that people who are listening to this who may have some influence or even the viewership, if you want to reach out to them and all them, this is a very easily changeable problem. It’s a cartel which has no official power. It’s all power by tradition, and it needs to be blown up. It does not serve America’s interests to have 48 seats, I think, in the White House Press Briefing Room to people who have audiences of like five. It just makes absolutely zero. Workspace, seats, access, credentials, and also credentials that are issued to other new media journalists at major events should take precedence. Because it’s not even about rewarding the creator. The American people are here. You need to meet them. That’s your job.
I’ll just end with a historical thing. Barack Obama shocked the White House Press Corps in 2009 because he took a question from the Huffington Post, a brand new blog, but they were stunned because he knew, he said, “These blog people, they went all in for me, and I got to reward them.” So there’s a longstanding precedence of this. They’ll bitch and they’ll moan. They’ll be upset. But it’s their fault that they don’t have as much credibility. It’s incumbent upon the White House, which serves the public, to actually meet them where they are. So I really hope that at least some of this is implemented inside of it.
The expectation is that the type of questions have to be substantive. Obviously, nothing is off limits. You should never, ever accept, “I’m not going to be asked about this.” Especially as a journalist, you can’t do that. Every time they’re like, “Hey, please don’t ask about this,” it’s like, actually, that’s probably one thing you should ask about. My point being that the expectation is that there’s no interference on the White House side, but that the format itself will lend exactly to what you’re saying to allow people to explain.
Again, in a media era where we need to trust the consumer, my show is routinely over two hours long on cable television. On cable television, the Tucker Carlson program, whenever it was on Fox News, without commercial breaks was about 42, 43 minutes, something like that, of runtime. So I’m speaking for almost triple what that is on a regular basis. The point is is that millions are willing to sit and to listen, but you just have to meet them where they are. So I really hope that a format like that, like a streamer briefing or something like that, I think it’s… Look, I know they would dunk on it endlessly, but I think it could work.
As you can tell, I read a lot of books. I like to take the long view. Every time I would ask a question, I go, when the future Robert Caro is writing books and he’s reading the transcript of the White House press briefing, he doesn’t even know who this kid is, he goes, “Oh, that was a pretty good question right there. That’s pretty relevant.” You got to think about all the bullshit that gets left on the cutting room floor.
But Robert came to Texas. He only intended on writing three books about Lyndon Johnson. He’s currently completed four and he is on his fifth, and it’s taken over 40 years to write those. And one of the reasons is he just kept uncovering so much stuff. And one of them is book two, Means of Ascent. He never intended to write it, but as he began to investigate Lyndon Johnson’s 1948 Senate election, he realizes in real time how rigged and stolen it was. And so I often tell people, “What if I told you that we lived in the most secure election period in modern history?” They wouldn’t believe it. But if you read through that shit, I’m talking about bags of cash, millions of dollars, literal stuffed ballot boxes.
It’s great to be back here in Texas because I always think about that place down in Zapata and Starr County. I’m talking like basically Mexico, where these dons were in power in the 1940s. They would literally stuff the ballot boxes with the rolls, and they wouldn’t even allow people to come and vote. They just check marked it all for you based upon the amount that you paid. Means of Ascent is the painstaking detail of exactly how Lyndon Johnson stole the 1948 Senate election. And nothing like that, as far as I know, is still happening.
Macro, we can talk about the 1876 election. Rutherford B. Hayes, one of the closest elections in modern history. It was one of those that got kicked with the House of Representatives. That was an insane, insane time. The corrupt bargain that was struck to basically end reconstruction and federal occupation of the South. And of course, the amount of wheeling and dealing that happened inside of that was absolutely bonkers and nuts. That was what an actual stolen election looks like, just so people know.
So on a micro and a macro, yeah, that’s what it really looks like. And so look, I understand where people are coming from. Also, let’s do, what? 1960? That was pretty wild. In 1960, there was all those allegations about Illinois going for Kennedy. If you look at the actual vote totals of Kennedy-Nixon, wow. I mean, it’s such an insanely close presidential election. And even though the electoral college victory looks a little bit differently, Nixon would openly talk about. He’s like, “Oh, old Joe Kennedy rigged Illinois for his boy.” And he’d be like, “And we didn’t even have a chance in Texas with Lyndon pulling.” Like, Lyndon stuffing the ballot boxes down there. And this is open on the…
They openly admit this stuff. They talk about it. So actually, there’s a funny story. LBJ lost, I think, his 1941 Senate primary. And it’s because that his opponent, Pappy O’Daniel, actually outstole Lyndon. So they were both corrupt, but Pappy O’Daniel stuffed the ballot box in the fifth day of the seven days to count the votes. And FDR loved LBJ. And it’s interesting, right? FDR recognized Johnson’s. His talent. And he goes, “Lyndon? You know in New York, we sit on the ballot boxes until we count them.” Because he’s admitting that he participated in a lot of this stuff.
So, this high-level chicanery of stolen elections is actually an American pastime that we luckily have moved on from. And quite a lot of people do not know the exact intricate details of how wild it was back in the day.
Okay. I have observed, and I’m going to put my analyst hat on. There are two theories of Stop the Steal. One I call Low IQ Stop the Steal, and one I call High IQ Stop the Steal. Low IQ Stop the Steal is basically what Donald Trump has advocated where Dominion voting machines, and bamboo ballots, and Venezuela and Sidney Powell, and all of the people involved basically got indicted by the state of Georgia. I’m not saying that that was correct. I’m just like, that’s what that actually looked like. Rudy Giuliani, et cetera.
High IQ Stop the Steal is basically… And actually, these are not illegitimate arguments. The school of thought is it was illegitimate for the state of Pennsylvania and other swing states to change mail-in balloting laws as a response to COVID, which enabled millions of people more to vote that wouldn’t have, and that those change in regulations became enough to swing the election. I actually think that that is true. Now, would you say that that’s rigged? That’s a very important question because we’re talking about a Republican state legislature, a Republican state supreme court. Right? The two that actually ruled on this question. So, could you say that it was rigged by the Democrats to do that?
Another problem with that theory is that while you can say that that’s unfair to change the rules last time around, you can also understand it to a certain extent. And I’m not justifying it, I’m just giving you an example. So for example, after the hurricane hit North Carolina, Republican officials were like, “Hey, we need to make sure that these people in Western North Carolina who were affected by the hurricane could still be able to have access to the ballot box.”
And people were like, “Oh, so you’re saying in an extraordinary circumstance that you should change voting access and regularity to make sure that people have access?” So, my point is you can see the logic through which this happened. And the high IQ version is basically the one that was adopted by Josh Hawley whenever he voted against certification. He said that the state of Pennsylvania, particularly election law, and that those changes were unfair and led to the, quote-unquote, rigging of the election against Donald Trump. Now, there’s an even higher IQ, Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal. Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal is one that you saw, with great love and respect, my friend JD Vance, at his debate with Tim Walsh. When Tim Walsh asked him, [inaudible 02:42:36]. He said, “Did Donald Trump win the 2020 election?”
He’s like, “Tim, I focus on the future.” And then he started talking about censorship, the Hunter Biden laptop story. If you take a look at the Joe Rogan interview, Rogan actually asked JD this. He’s like, “What do you mean you’re in the election? Some version of that.”
And JD was like, “Well, what I get really frustrated by is people will bring up all of these insane conspiracy theories, but they ignore that the media censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, and that big tech had its finger on the thumb for the Democrats.” Now, that is empirically true. Okay? That is true, right? Now, would you say that that’s rigged? I’m not going to use that word because that’s a very different word. Now, would you say that that’s unfair? Yeah, I think it’s unfair.
So there’s another, a lot of MAGA folks picked up on this one. There was a Time Magazine article in 2020 that’s very famous in their crowd, called the… It was like the fight to fortify the election, and it was about all of these institutions that put their fingers on the scale for Joe Biden against Donald Trump. So I will put it this way, was Donald Trump up against the Titanic forces of billionaires, tech censorship, and elite institutions who all did absolute damnedest to defeat him in 2020? Yes, that is true. And in a sense, the Galaxy Brain case is the only one of those which I think is truly legitimate.
And I’m not going to put it off the table, but this is the problem, that’s not what Trump means. Trump, by the way, will never tell you what I just told you. JD will. If you go and you ask any of these Republican politicians when they’re challenged on it and they don’t want to say that Trump loss at 2020 election, they’ll give the hype, the Galaxy Brain case that I just gave. And again, I don’t think it’s wrong. But it’s like, guys, that’s not what he means when he says it. And that’s the important parsing of the case, right?
But that was purely, he’s the president. We’re asking him for his opinions on an immigration bill or whatever. For what you do, it’s impossible to do it for you.
Because those of us in news, we will always negotiate. We’re willing to do short form because we’re asking about policy. But for the style that you help popularize, and I think that you’re uniquely talented and good at, that’s very important not to compromise on.
Because when I was growing, I was grew up not far from here, 90 minutes from here, in College Station. I felt very uniquely closed off from the world. I found the world through books, and books saved my life so many different times. And I hope to encourage that in other people. I really… No matter where you are, no matter who you are, no matter how busy you are, if you have some time, to either sit down with a book or put on an audiobook, and you can transport yourself into a different world. It’s so important. And that’s something that your show really helps me with, too. I love listening to your show whenever. Sometimes when I’m too into politics and I need to listen to something, I’ll listen to that Mayan historian guy. I love stuff like that, absolutely.
Now, and I was like, “Oh shit. This entire thing happened which actually decided the Second World War, and I don’t know anything about this.” So, shout out to Dan. God bless you, man.
God, I love that quote.
And all right, let’s put that on the table. And then the other thing I was troubled by, that maybe you can comfort me in the context of history, how easily the base ate that up. That they were able to believe the election was truly rigged based on no clear evidence that I saw. And they just love the story. And there is something compelling to the story, like this DNC type. Like with Bernie, the establishment just state they’re corrupt and they steal the will of the people. And the lack of desire from the base or from people to see any evidence of that, what’s really troubled me.
And I’m not advocating necessarily for the world he created for us, but he did it, and people should study him more. If you’re interested in media in particular, that book is one of the most important books you’ll ever read.
I’m like, “Yeah. You guys have bought a lot of crazy stupid shit, too. Okay?” And if actually, I would say liberal misinformation, quote-unquote, is worse than Republican disinformation because it pervades the entire elite media like RussiaGate or Cambridge Analytica or any of these other hoaxes that have been foisted on the American people. The people who listen to the Daily and from the New York Times are just as brainwashed, lack of informed, want to feel informed as people who watch Fox News. So, let me just say that out there. It’s an equal opportunity, cancer in the American football.
And then the other gift that my parents gave me is I got to travel the entire world. I probably visited 25, 30 countries by the time I was 18. And one of the things that that gave me was the ability to just put yourself in the brain of another person. So one of the reasons I’m really excited to go to Japan, and I picked it as a spot for my honeymoon, was because Japan is a first-world developed country where the vast majority of them don’t speak English. It’s distinguishably non-Western and they just do shit their own way. So they have a subway, but it’s not the same as ours. They have restaurants, things don’t work the same way. They have…
I could go a laundry list. Their entire philosophy of life, of the daily rhythm, even though it merges with service-based managerial capitalism and they’re fucking good at it too, they do it their own way. So, exposure to other countries in the world gave me… And also, just being an outsider myself gave me a more detached view of the world. So if you don’t have that, what I would encourage you is to flex that muscle. So, go somewhere that makes you uncomfortable. This will be a very boomer take, but I hate the fact that you have 5G everywhere you go in the world. Because some of the best experiences I’ve ever had in my life is walking around Warsaw, Poland trying to find a bus station to get my ass to Lithuania with a printed out bus ticket. I have no idea where the street is. I’m in a country where not that many people speak English. We’re pointing and gesturing, and I figured it out. And it was really useful. I got to meet a lot of cool Polish people.
Same in Thailand. I’ve been in rural, like [inaudible 02:55:32], Thailand, Columbia. Places where people speak zero English. And your ability to gesture and use Pidgin really connects you and gives you the ability to get an exposure to others. And I know this is a very wanderlust-like travel thing, but unironically, if you’re raised in a bubble, pierce it. That’s the answer, is seek something out that makes you uncomfortable. So if you’re raised rich, you need to go spend some time with poor people.
There’s that famous study where they ask people on their deathbed what they valued in life, and every single one of them was like, “I wish I’d spend more time with my children.” I think about that every time. That I am thinking about pursuing a new work endeavor or something that’s going to have me spend significant time away from my wife. And I’m almost always these days, now that I’ve achieved a certain level of success, the answer is, “I’m not doing it unless you can come with me.”
And look, it’s really hard. Once you achieve a certain level of economic success and others, what do most rich people do? They close themselves off from the world. Vast majority of the time, what do you do? Economy is annoying flying. They fly first class. Living in a small house is annoying. They buy a bigger house. Dealing with a lot of these inconveniences of life is annoying. You pay a little bit more to make sure you don’t have to do that. There’s a deep insidious thing within that, each one of those individual choices. Where the more and more removed that you get from that, the more in the bubble that you are. So, you should actually seek out those experiences or create them in a concerted way.
I do think after Trump, he did succumb a little bit, in my opinion, to the elite liberalism view, both of the impetus behind Donald Trump and why he was able to be successful. So in some ways, very denigrating to the Trump voter, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of the American presidency. Because like I said, he really is the one who believes that that narcissism, that character and all of that that makes Trump tick itself will eventually override any potential benefit that he could have in office. And I just think that’s a really wrong way of looking at it.
I mean, for example, I had this debate with Crystal, and this gets to the whole Trump talking about the enemy from within. And she was like, “He wants to prosecute his political opponents. Do you disagree with that?”
And I was like, “No, I don’t.”
And she was like, “So, you’re not worried about it?”
And I go, “No, I’m not.”
And she’s like, “Well, how do you square that?”
And I was like, “Well, I actually unironically believe in the American system of institutional checks and balances.” Which kept him, quote-unquote, in check last time around. I also believe in democracy where… This is really interesting, but in 2022, a lot of the Republicans who were the most vociferous about Stop the Steal, they got their asses kicked at the ballot box. Americans also then, in 2024, decided to forgive some of that from Donald Trump. It definitely didn’t help, right? But they were able to oversee that for their own interests. As in democratically, people are able to weigh in terms of checks and balances, what they should and should not challenge a politician by. But also, we have the American legal system, and I also know the way that the institutions in Washington themselves work. That fundamentally, the way that certain processes and other things could play out will not play out to some Hitlerian fantasy.
And this gets to the whole Kamala and them calling her a fascist and a Hitler. You and I probably spent hours of our lives, maybe more, thinking and reading about Adolf Hitler, Weimar Germany. And I just find it so insulting because it becomes this moniker of fascist. You know what I’m saying? These terms have meaning beyond just the dictionary definition. The circumstances through which Hitler is able to rise to power are not the same as today. And it’s like, stop denigrating America to the point where you think… Really, you should flip it around. Why do you think America is Weimar, Germany? That’s a ridiculous thing to say. Do you unironically believe that? No, you don’t believe that.
So, that is personally what drives me a little bit crazy. And I think that Sam has found himself in a mental framework where he is not willing, he’s not able to look past the man and his, quote-unquote, danger. And at the end of the day, his worldview was rejected wholly by the American people. Because the character argument, the fascist argument, the Hitler argument, the he’s uniquely bad argument has been run twice before 2016 and in 20… Actually, all three times. I guess, it won in 2020.
But two out of the three times, Donald Trump has won the presidency. And in his latest one, where that argument has never been made before for a longer period of time and more in strength by a political candidate, was rejected completely. And I would ask him to reconcile himself to the America that he lives in.
It was crazy, okay? Was it funny? Yeah, but it was crazy, and it’s not how I would conceive and have conceived of some of my favorite presidents. I wouldn’t think that they would do that, but that’s what you get. Everyone should be clear-eyed about who this man is, and that’s another problem. The deification of politicians is sick. It’s sickening about Trump, around Obama. These people are just people. The idea that they are godlike creatures with extraordinary judgment… One of the really cool things about you and I’s job is we actually get to meet very important people. After you meet a few billionaires, you’re like, “Yeah, there’s definitely something there. But some of them get lucky.” After you meet a few politicians, you’re like, “Oh. They’re like… They’re not that smart.” That was a rude awakening for me, by the way, being here in Texas, reading about these people.
And pretty soon, I was on Capitol Hill. I was 19 years old. I was an intern. I’m actually interacting, and I see them behave in ridiculous manners and whatever. Just treat people badly or say something stupid. I was like, “Oh.” I’m like, “This is not the West Wing.” I’m like, “This is not a book. These people are just… This is just reality.” The weirdest part of my life is I’ve now been in Washington long enough. I know some of the people personally, the vice president of the United States, literally the vice president-elect, future cabinet secretaries, these people I literally have met, had dinner with, had a drink with, whatever. That’s a wild thing, and that’s even more bringing you down to Earth. You’re like, “Oh, shit. You’re actually going to have a lot of power. That’s kind of scary, but you’re just a person.”
So even though you don’t have to say, “I have my same life experience,” take it from me or anybody else who’s ever met really famous people, rich, successful, powerful people. They’re just people. There’s nothing that… There’s some things that are unique about them, but they have just as many human qualities as you or anybody else who’s listening to this right now.
I’m like, “If you actually read history, most of these things are just…” They’re not even footnotes. They’re the stuff that the historians flip past, and they’re like, “What a stupid bucking thing.” I’m talking about things that ruled American politics. What if I told you that the Panama Canal Treaty was one of the most important fights in modern American politics? Nobody thinks about that today. It ruled American politics at that time. It genuinely is a footnote, but that’s not how it felt at the time. So that’s another thing I want people to take away.
My point about the UFOs is I don’t know what is real or not. I have absolute confidence and absolute ton is being hid from the American people and that all of the official explanations are bullshit. I have had the opportunity to interface with some of the whistleblowers and other… the activists in the community, people who I trust, people who have great credentials, who have no reason to lie, who have assured us that there is a lot going on behind the scenes. There has been too much misinformation and effort by the deep state to cover up this topic.
So I would ask people to keep the faith. It’s 2024 and we still don’t have all the JFK files. Everyone involved is dead. There’s no reason to let it go. Even though we basically know what happened, we don’t know. If you read that fantastic book, the Tom O’Neill book about the Manson murders, again, it took him 20 years to write that book and he still didn’t get the full story. So sometimes, it takes an extraordinarily long agonizing period of time, and I know how deeply frustrating that is. But when you think about a secret, a program and knowledge of this magnitude, it would only make sense that it would require a titanic effort to reveal a titanic secret.
And they say, “Yes, sir. We’ll get that to you in three months.” And three months comes by. And then they’re like, “Well, there’s these hurdles.”
It’s like, well, go read about the terror that LBJ and the Kennedys and others had in confronting J. Edgar Hoover. Go and read how terrified Eisenhower and some of them were of the Dulles brothers. They were scared. They knew where the power lies. So the presidency… Look, government, deep state, et cetera, they’ve been there a long time, and they know what’s happening and presidents come and go, but they stay forever. So that’s the paradigm that you’re going to have to fight against.
But people are like, “Oh, so-and-so is only against universal healthcare getting paid.”
I’m like, “No, no, no. That’s not why. They actually believe it.”
Or it’s like, “Oh, so-and-so only wants to advocate for war with Iran because they’re on the payroll of AIPAC.”
And it’s like, “Well, yeah. The AIPAC trips and the money helps. But they think that actually the system itself…”
This is a very Chomsky-esque systemic critique, is that any journalist worth their salt would never have the ability to get hired in a mainstream. So he’s like, “It’s not that you’re bad in the mainstream media, it’s that anyone good is not allowed to be elevated to your position because they have an ideology.” So that is the most self-reinforcing, pernicious mechanism of them all, and that’s really Washington in a nutshell.
He would be able to build upon that legacy in the way that George H.W. Bush was able to get elected off the back of Reagan. But H.W. Bush was fundamentally his own man. He’s a very misunderstood figure, very different than Ronald Reagan, didn’t end up working out for him, but he did get himself elected once. So that’s one path. That’s if you have a net positive Trump presidency. The other path is the ’04 path that I just laid out. If Trump does what Bush does, misinterprets his mandate, screws things up, creates chaos, and it makes it just generally annoying to live in American society, then you will see somebody in the Republican Party… Still, it could even be JD Vance because he could say, ” JD is my natural and my chosen successor,” but then he would lose an election and then he would no longer be the so-called leader of the Republican Party.
So I could see it swing in the other direction. I could see Republicans or others… Let’s say, if it’s a total disaster and we’d get down to 20% approval ratings and the economy is bad and stuff like that. Glenn Youngkin or somebody like that who’s very diametrically opposed to Donald Trump or at least aesthetically is somebody like that who could rise from the ashes. I’m just saying in terms of his aesthetic, not him per se. So there’s a variety of different directions. It’s a big question about the Republican base. A shit ton of people voted Republican now for the first time ever. So are they going to vote in party primaries? I don’t know. The traditional party primary voter is like a white boomer who’s 58, 59. Is the Latino guy in California who turned out to vote for Trump with a MAGA hat and rolling around suburban Los Angeles with that… Is he going to vote in the Republican Party? That could change. So the type of candidate themselves could come. So it’s way too early to say. We have so many variety of paths that we could go down.
You knowhow in the way that the Supreme Court just ended the conversation around gay marriage? So Republicans were like, “Yeah, whatever. We support gay marriage,” because they’re like, “That’s the law of the land. It is what it is.” They should just hope that their unpopular issue is resolved by the president and thus, they just don’t have to talk about it anymore. Now, the battleground is actually favorable for them. They get to talk about the economy and abortion. So their least popular issue gets solved by the president by consensus from his mandate, and then they can run on a brand new platform for the new issues that are facing America.
People should go listen to that. So there you go. Another really good one, I like to think a lot about the British Empire and what eventually led to that collapse. Nobody in 1919 said the British Empire has just collapsed. Basically, nobody still thought that. They were like, “Yeah, the first World War is horrible. But actually, we came out of this okay. We still have India. We still have all these African colonies and all that, but long periods of servitude, of debt to the United States, of degradation, of social upheaval, of Bolshevism, of American industrial might.” And next thing you know, you find yourself at Potsdam and Churchill’s like, “Holy shit, I have barely any power in this room.” So revolutions happen slowly and then all at once. So could you really put a real pin in the end of the British Empire? It took almost 40 years for it to end.
So America’s empire will eventually end either from rising geopolitical competition, likely China. Could be India. Nobody knows. It will likely be because of being overstretched of an elite capture, is usually the reason why, and a misreading of what made your original society work in the first place. That is one where… Honestly, all three of those things will happen all at once, and it will happen over an extremely long period of time. It’s very difficult to predict. I would not bet against America right now. I think we have a lot of fundamental strengths. It’s such a unique and dynamic country. It really is fucking crazy. Every time I travel the world, as much as I love all these different places, I go, “Man, I love the United States so much.” You’ll love it more when you leave. I really believe that.
They have to go home and their entire cities are burned to the ground, and they’re trying to readjust and their entire economy and way of life is overthrown in five years. That’s an insane time to be alive. What do we know? They worked out. By 1890s or so, there were people shaking hands, union and there’s a cool video on YouTube actually of FDR who is addressing some of the last Gettysburg veterans. I think it was the 75th anniversary or whatever. You can literally see these old men shaking hands across the stone wall. It gives me hope. Yeah.
There’s nothing down there. Zero. Going to the South Pole is a truly useless exercise. Yet, we went. We went twice. Actually, two people went there in a span of five weeks, and they competed to do so. The spirit that propelled Amundsen and Scott’s expedition and people like Shackleton who’s like… If you were to ask me my hero of all heroes, it’s Ernest Shackleton. It’s because his spirit, I think, lives on in the United States. It unfortunately died in Great Britain. Interestingly enough, the Brits even understand that. They’re like, “It’s very interesting how popular Shackleton is in America.” Even though he was Irish and he was a British subject, to me, he’s a spiritual American. I think that his spirit lives on within us and has always been here to a certain extent. Everywhere else, I think it’s dying. But here, I love it here.
There’s so many cool things about America. People move around all the time. They buy new houses. They start families. There’s no other place that you can just reset your whole life in the same country. It’s wild. You can reinvent yourself. You can go broke. You can get rich. You can go back and forth multiple times, and there’s nowhere else where you have enough freedom and opportunity to pursue that. We definitely have a lot of problems, but I’ve traveled enough of the world now to know that it’s a special place, and that gives me a lot of hope.
“History is the study of all the world’s crime.”
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 5:06 – Why Trump won
- 10:07 – Book recommendations
- 13:44 – History of wokeism
- 21:13 – History of Scots-Irish
- 27:51 – Biden
- 31:54 – FDR
- 33:55 – George W Bush
- 36:18 – LBJ
- 41:35 – Cuban Missile Crisis
- 49:07 – Immigration
- 1:21:06 – DOGE
- 1:47:46 – MAGA ideology
- 1:50:58 – Bernie Sanders
- 1:59:20 – Obama vs Trump
- 2:16:19 – Nancy Pelosi
- 2:19:34 – Kamala Harris
- 2:35:19 – 2020 Election
- 2:59:08 – Sam Harris
- 3:10:15 – UFOs
- 3:16:06 – Future of the Republican Party
- 3:22:43 – Future of the Democratic Party
- 3:30:41 – Hope
Introduction
Saagar Enjeti
People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate, he gets all this stuff through. But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place, right? We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover. The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he is a filthy rich banker. FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats, he’s passing legislation, but more importantly, he tries various different programs, then they get ruled unconstitutional, he tries even more.
People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate, he gets all this stuff through. But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place, right? We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover. The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he is a filthy rich banker. FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats, he’s passing legislation, but more importantly, he tries various different programs, then they get ruled unconstitutional, he tries even more.
So what does America take away from that? Every single time, if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting. And that was, really, part of his character that he developed after he got polio. And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression. He’s such an inspirational figure.
I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR, I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had. I think they had a really, really good judgment and I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world.
Actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in the room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile Crisis, and he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that.
And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text, we were forced to read it in graduate school, The Essence of Decision by Graham Allison, I’m so thankful we did. It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works.
People really need to understand Washington. Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you, they don’t even really care about the president. They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way. And it usually takes a great, shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal.
Every once in a while, you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.
So the question around The Essence of Decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision. And there are various different schools of thought, but one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then, kind of the great man theory as well.
You and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT-109 and about how John F. Kennedy experienced World War II and how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine, he was a war hero.
And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which, to this day, is considered a text, which, at the moment, was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement. I actually have a original copy, it’s one of my most prized possessions.
And from 1939… Because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F. Kennedy? Turns out he’s a brilliant man.
And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody, so in the room at the same time, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, the general who will succeed him, 26-year-old John F. Kennedy as a journalist, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others. And that’s the story of America right there. It’s kind of amazing.
I’m going to give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true. Roger Ailes, who is a genius, shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman. That book changed my life too because it really made me understand media. “People don’t want to be informed, they want to feel informed.”
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Saagar Enjeti, his second time in the podcast. Saagar is a political commentator, journalist, co-host of Breaking Points with Krystal Ball and of The Realignment podcast with Marshall Kosloff. Saagar is one of the most well-read people I’ve ever met. His love of history and the wisdom gained from reading thousands of history books radiates through every analysis he makes of the world.
The following is a conversation with Saagar Enjeti, his second time in the podcast. Saagar is a political commentator, journalist, co-host of Breaking Points with Krystal Ball and of The Realignment podcast with Marshall Kosloff. Saagar is one of the most well-read people I’ve ever met. His love of history and the wisdom gained from reading thousands of history books radiates through every analysis he makes of the world.
In this podcast, we trace out the history of the various ideological movements that led up to the current political moment. In doing so, we mention a large number of amazing books. We’ll put a link to them in the description for those interested to learn more about each topic.
This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Saagar Enjeti.
Why Trump won
Lex Fridman
So let’s start with the obvious big question, why do you think Trump won? Let’s break it down. Before the election, you said that if Trump wins, it’s going to be because of immigration. So aside from immigration, what are the maybe less than obvious reasons that Trump won?
So let’s start with the obvious big question, why do you think Trump won? Let’s break it down. Before the election, you said that if Trump wins, it’s going to be because of immigration. So aside from immigration, what are the maybe less than obvious reasons that Trump won?
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, we absolutely need to return to immigration, but without that, multifaceted explanation, let’s start with the easiest one. There has been a wave of anti-incumbent energy around the world. Financial Times chart recently went viral showing, so the first time, I think since World War II, possibly since 1905, I need to look at the data set, that all anti-incumbent parties all across the world suffered major defeats. So that’s a very, very high level analysis, and we can return to that if we talk about Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 because there were similar global precursors.
Yes, we absolutely need to return to immigration, but without that, multifaceted explanation, let’s start with the easiest one. There has been a wave of anti-incumbent energy around the world. Financial Times chart recently went viral showing, so the first time, I think since World War II, possibly since 1905, I need to look at the data set, that all anti-incumbent parties all across the world suffered major defeats. So that’s a very, very high level analysis, and we can return to that if we talk about Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 because there were similar global precursors.
The individual level in the United States, there’s a very simple explanation as well, which is that Joe Biden was very old, he was very unpopular, inflation was high. Inflation is one of the highest determiners of people switching their votes and of putting their primacy on that ahead of any other issue at the ballot box. So that’s that.
But I think it’s actually much deeper, at a psychological level, for who America is and what it is. And fundamentally, I think what we’re going to spend a lot of time talking about today is the evolution of the modern left and its collapse in the Kamala Harris candidacy, and eventually, the loss to Donald Trump in the popular vote where, really, is like an apotheosis of several social forces. So we’re going to talk about The Great Awakening or so-called Awokening, which is very important to understanding all of this.
There’s also really Donald Trump himself who is really one of the most unique individual American politicians that we’ve seen in decades. At this point, Donald Trump’s victory makes him the most important and transformative figure in American politics since FDR. And a thought process for the audience is in 2028, there will be an 18-year-old who’s eligible to vote who cannot remember a time when Donald J. Trump was not the central American figure.
And there’s stories in World War II where troops were on the front line, some were 18, 19 years old, FDR died, and they literally said, “Well, who’s the president?” And they said, “Harry Truman, you dumb ass.” And they go, “Who?” They couldn’t conceive of a universe where FDR was not the president of the United States. And Donald Trump, even during the Biden administration, he was the figure. Joe Biden defined his entire candidacy and his legacy around defeating this man, and obviously, he’s failed. We should talk a lot about Joe Biden as well for his own failed theories of the presidency.
So I think at a macro level, it’s easy to understand. At a basic level, inflation, it’s easy to understand. But what I really hope that a lot of people can take away is how fundamentally unique Donald Trump is as a political figure and what he was able to do to realign American politics really forever. In the white working class realignment originally of 2016, the activation, really, of a multiracial kind of working class coalition and of really splitting American lines along a single individual question of did you attend a four-year college degree institution or not?
And this is a crazy thing to say, Donald Trump is one of the most racially depolarizing electoral figures in American history. We lived in 2016 at a time when racial groups really voted in blocks, Latinos, Blacks, whites. There was some, of course, division between the white working class and the white college educated, white collar workers. But by and large, you could pretty fairly say that Asians, Indians, everyone, 80, 90% were going to vote for the Democratic Party, Latinos as well. I’m born here in the state of Texas. George W. Bush shocked people when he won some 40% of the Latino vote. Donald Trump just beat Kamala Harris with Latino men and he ran up the table for young men.
So really, fundamentally, we have witnessed a full realignment in American politics, and that’s a really fundamental problem for the modern left. It’s erased a lot of the conversation around gerrymandering, around the Electoral College, the so-called Electoral College bias towards Republicans. Really, being able to win the popular vote for the first time since 2004 is shocking and landmark achievement by a Republican.
In 2008, I have a book on my shelf and I always look at it to remind myself of how much things can change, James Carville, and it says 40 More Years, How Democrats Will Never Lose An Election Again. 2008, they wrote that book after the Obama coalition and the landslide. And something I love so much about this country, people change their minds all the time.
I was born in 1992, I watched red states go blue. I’ve seen blue states go red. I’ve seen swing states go red or blue. I’ve seen millions of people pick up and move, the greatest internal migration in the United States since World War II. And it’s really inspiring because it’s a really dynamic, interesting place. And I love covering it and I love thinking about it, talking about it, talking to people. It’s awesome.
Book recommendations
Lex Fridman
One of the reasons I’m a big fan of yours is you’re a student of history, and so, you’ve recommended a bunch of books to me. And they and others thread the different movements throughout American history. Some movements take off and do hold power for a long time, some don’t. And some are started by a small number of people and are controlled by a small number of people, some are mass movements. And it’s just fascinating to watch how those movements evolve, and then, fit themselves, maybe, into the constraints of a two-party system. And I’d love to talk about the various perspectives of that. So would it be fair to say that this election was turned into a kind of class struggle?
One of the reasons I’m a big fan of yours is you’re a student of history, and so, you’ve recommended a bunch of books to me. And they and others thread the different movements throughout American history. Some movements take off and do hold power for a long time, some don’t. And some are started by a small number of people and are controlled by a small number of people, some are mass movements. And it’s just fascinating to watch how those movements evolve, and then, fit themselves, maybe, into the constraints of a two-party system. And I’d love to talk about the various perspectives of that. So would it be fair to say that this election was turned into a kind of class struggle?
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I won’t go that far because to say it’s a class struggle really implies that things fundamentally align on economic lines, and I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate. Although, if that’s your lens, you could get there. So there’s a very big statistic going around right now where Kamala Harris increased her vote share and won households over $100,000 or more, and Donald Trump won households under 100,000. You could view that in an economic lens.
Well, I won’t go that far because to say it’s a class struggle really implies that things fundamentally align on economic lines, and I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate. Although, if that’s your lens, you could get there. So there’s a very big statistic going around right now where Kamala Harris increased her vote share and won households over $100,000 or more, and Donald Trump won households under 100,000. You could view that in an economic lens.
The problem again that I have is that that is much more a proxy for four-year college degree and for education. And so, one of my favorite books is called Coming Apart by Charles Murray. And that book, really, really underscores how the cultural milieu that people swim in when they attend a four-year college degree and the trajectory of their life, not only on where they move to, who they marry, what type of grocery store they go to, their cultural, what television shows that they watch.
One of my favorite questions from Charles Murray’s is called a Bubble Quiz. I encourage people to go take it by the way. It asks you a question. It’s like what does the word Branson mean to you? And it has a couple of answers. One of them is Branson is Sir Richard Branson. Number two is Branson, Missouri, which is like a country music tourist style destination. Three is, it means nothing. So you are less in a bubble if you say country music. And you’re very much in the bubble if you say Richard Branson. And I remember taking that test for the first time, I go, “Obviously, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic. Like what?” And then, I was like, “Wait.” I’m like, “I’m in the bubble.”
And there are other things in there like can you name various different military ranks? I can because I’m a history nerd, but the vast majority of college educated people don’t know anybody who served in the United States military, they don’t have family members who do… The most popular shows in America are like The Big Bang Theory and NCIS, whereas people in our, probably, cultural milieu, our favorite shows are White Lotus, The Last of Us, this is prestige television with a very small audience, but high income, high education.
So the point is that culture really defines who we are as Americans, where we live. And rural, urban is one way to describe it, but honestly, with the work from home revolution and more rich people and highly educated people moving to more rural suburban or areas they traditionally weren’t able to commute in, that’s changing. And so, really, the internet is everything.
The stuff that you consume on the internet, the stuff that you spend your time doing, type of books you read, whether you read a book at all, frankly, whether you travel to Europe, whether you have a passport, all the things that you value in your life, that is the real cultural divide in America. And I actually think that’s what this revolution of Donald Trump was activating and bringing people to the polls, bringing a lot of those traditional working class voters of all races away from the Democratic Party along the lines of elitism, of sneering, and of a general cultural feeling that these people don’t understand me and my struggles in this life.
History of wokeism
Lex Fridman
And so, the trivial formulation is the woke-ism and the anti woke-ism a movement?
And so, the trivial formulation is the woke-ism and the anti woke-ism a movement?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So it’s not necessarily that Trump winning was a statement against woke-ism, it was the broader anti-elitism?
So it’s not necessarily that Trump winning was a statement against woke-ism, it was the broader anti-elitism?
Saagar Enjeti
It’s difficult to say because I wouldn’t dismiss anti woke-ism or woke-ism as an explanation. But we need to understand the electoral impacts of woke. So there’s varying degrees of how you’re going to encounter, quote-unquote, “woke-ism,” and this is a very difficult thing to define. So let me just try and break it down, which is there are the types of things that you’re going to interact with on a cultural basis.
It’s difficult to say because I wouldn’t dismiss anti woke-ism or woke-ism as an explanation. But we need to understand the electoral impacts of woke. So there’s varying degrees of how you’re going to encounter, quote-unquote, “woke-ism,” and this is a very difficult thing to define. So let me just try and break it down, which is there are the types of things that you’re going to interact with on a cultural basis.
And what I mean by that is going to watch a TV show, and just for some reason, there’s like two trans characters. And it’s never particularly explained why, they just are there. Or watching a commercial, and it’s the same thing. Watching, I don’t know, I remember I was watching, I think it was Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. It was a terrible movie, by the way. Don’t recommend it. But one of the characters, I think her name was like America and she wore a gay pride flag. Look, many left-wingers would make fun of me for saying these things, but that is obviously a social agenda to the point as in they believe it is deeply acceptable that it’s used by Hollywood and cultural elites who really value those progress in sexual orientation and others and really believe it’s important to, quote-unquote, “showcase it for representation.” So that’s one way that we may encounter, quote-unquote, woke-ism.
But the more important ways, frankly, are the ways that affirmative action, which really has its roots in American society all the way going back to the 1960s, and how those have manifested in our economy and in our understanding of, quote-unquote, “discrimination.” So two books I can recommend, one is called The Origins of Woke, that’s by Richard Hanania. There’s another one, The Age of Entitlement, by Christopher Caldwell. And they make a very strong case, Caldwell in particular, he calls it like a new founding of America, was the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 because it created an entire new legal regime and understanding of race in the American character and how the government was going to enforce that.
And that really ties in with another one of the books that I recommended to you about the origins of Trump by Jim Webb. And Senator Jim Webb, incredible, incredible man. He’s so under appreciated. Intellectual. He was anti-war. And people may remember him from the 2016 primary and they had asked him a question, I don’t exactly remember, about one of his enemies, and he’s like, “Well, one of them was a guy I shot in Vietnam.” And he was running against Hillary.
And that guy, he wrote the book, Born Fighting, I think it’s history of the Scots-Irish people, something like that. And that book really opened my eyes to the way that affirmative action and racial preferences that were playing out through the HR, managerial elite really turned a lot of people within the white working class away from the Democratic Party and felt fundamentally discriminated against by the professional, managerial class.
So there’s a lot of roots to this, The Managerial Revolution by James Burnham. And in terms of the origin of how we got here, but the crystallization of DEI and/or affirmative action, I prefer to use the term affirmative action, in the highest echelons of business. And there became this idea that representation itself was the only thing that mattered. And I think that right around 2014, that really went on steroids, and that’s why it’s not an accident that Donald J. Trump elected in 2016.
Lex Fridman
At this point, do you think this election is the kind of statement that woke-ism as a movement is dead?
At this point, do you think this election is the kind of statement that woke-ism as a movement is dead?
Saagar Enjeti
I don’t know. It’s very difficult to say because woke-ism itself is not a movement with a party leader, it’s a amorphous belief that has worked its way through institutions now for almost 40 or 50 years. It’s effectively a religion. And part of the reason why it’s difficult to define is it means different things to different people. So for example, there are varying degrees of how we would define, quote-unquote, “woke.” Do I think that the Democrats will be speaking in so-called academic language? Yes, I do think they will.
I don’t know. It’s very difficult to say because woke-ism itself is not a movement with a party leader, it’s a amorphous belief that has worked its way through institutions now for almost 40 or 50 years. It’s effectively a religion. And part of the reason why it’s difficult to define is it means different things to different people. So for example, there are varying degrees of how we would define, quote-unquote, “woke.” Do I think that the Democrats will be speaking in so-called academic language? Yes, I do think they will.
I think that the next Democratic nominee will not do that. However, Kamala Harris actually did move as much as she could away from, quote-unquote, “woke,” but she basically was punished for a lot of the sins of both herself from 2019, but a general cultural feeling that her and the people around her do not understand me and not only do not understand me, but have racial preferences or a regime or an understanding that would lead to a, quote-unquote, “equity mindset,” equal outcomes for everybody as opposed to equality of opportunity, which is more of a colorblind philosophy. So I can’t say, I think it’s way too early.
And again, you can not use the word Latinx, but do you still believe in an effective affirmative action regime in terms of how you would run your Department of Justice, in terms of how you view the world, in terms of what you think the real dividing lines in America are? Because I would say that’s still actually kind of a woke mindset, and that’s part of the reason why the term itself doesn’t really mean a whole lot. And we have to get, actually, really specific about what it looks like in operations.
In operation, it means affirmative action, it means the NASDAQ passing some law that if you want to go public or something, that you have to have a woman and a person of color on your board. This is a blatant and extraordinary, look, racialism that they’ve enshrined in their bylaws. So you can get rid of ESG, that’s great, you can get rid of DEI, I think that’s great, but it’s really about a mindset and a view of the world, and I don’t think that’s going anywhere.
Lex Fridman
And you think the reason it doesn’t work well in practice is because there’s a big degree to which it’s anti-meritocracy.
And you think the reason it doesn’t work well in practice is because there’s a big degree to which it’s anti-meritocracy.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s anti-American, really. DEI and woke and affirmative action make perfect sense in a lot of different countries. And there are a lot of countries out there that are multi-ethnic and they’re heterogeneous and they are run by, basically, quasi-dictators. And the way it works is that you pay off the Christians and they pay off the Muslims and they get this guy and they get that guy and everybody kind of shakes… It’s very explicit where they’re like, we have 10 spots and they go to the Christians, we have 10 spots, and they go to the Hindus. India’s a country that I know pretty well, and this does kind of work like that on state politics level in some respect.
It’s anti-American, really. DEI and woke and affirmative action make perfect sense in a lot of different countries. And there are a lot of countries out there that are multi-ethnic and they’re heterogeneous and they are run by, basically, quasi-dictators. And the way it works is that you pay off the Christians and they pay off the Muslims and they get this guy and they get that guy and everybody kind of shakes… It’s very explicit where they’re like, we have 10 spots and they go to the Christians, we have 10 spots, and they go to the Hindus. India’s a country that I know pretty well, and this does kind of work like that on state politics level in some respect.
But in America, fundamentally, we really believe that, no matter where you are from, that you come here, and basically, within a generation, especially if you migrate here legally and you integrate, that you leave a lot of that stuff behind. And the story, the American dream that is ingrained in so many of us is, one, that really does not mesh well with any sort of racial preference regime or anything that’s not meritocratic.
And I will give the left-wingers some credit in the idea that meritocracy itself could have preference for people who have privileged backgrounds, I think that’s true. And so, the way I would like to see it is to increase everybody’s equality of opportunity to make sure that they all have a chance at, quote-unquote, “willing out the American dream.” But that doesn’t erase meritocracy, hard work, and many of the other things that we associate with the American character, with the American frontier.
So these are two ideologies which are really at odds. In a lot of ways, woke-ism, racialism and all this is a third world ideology. It’s one that’s very prevalent in Europe and all across Asia, but it doesn’t mix well here, and it shouldn’t. And I’m really glad that America feels the same way.
History of Scots-Irish
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I got to go back to Jim Webb in that book. What a badass, fascinating book.
Yeah, I got to go back to Jim Webb in that book. What a badass, fascinating book.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh my God, it’s amazing.
Oh my God, it’s amazing.
Lex Fridman
Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America. So I did not realize to the degree, first of all how badass the Scots-Irish are. And that to the degree, many of the things that kind of identify as American and part of the American spirit were defined by this relatively small group of people as he describes the motto could be summarized as fight, sing, drink and pray.
Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America. So I did not realize to the degree, first of all how badass the Scots-Irish are. And that to the degree, many of the things that kind of identify as American and part of the American spirit were defined by this relatively small group of people as he describes the motto could be summarized as fight, sing, drink and pray.
So there’s the principles of fierce individualism, the principles of a deep distrust of government, the elites, the authorities, bottom-up governance, over 2,000 years of a military tradition. They made up 40% of the Revolutionary War Army and produced numerous military leaders including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, George S. Patton, and a bunch of presidents, some of the more gangster presidents, Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Just the whole cultural legacy of country music.
Saagar Enjeti
We owe them so much and they really don’t get their due, unfortunately, a lot for the reasons that I just described around racialism is because post-mass immigration from Europe, the term white kind of became blanket applied to new Irish, to Italians, to Slovenians. And as you and I both know, if you travel those countries, people are pretty different. And it’s not the different here in the United States. Scots-Irish were some of the original settlers here in America, and particularly in Appalachia. And their contribution to the fighting spirit and their own culture and who we are as individualists and some of the first people to ever settle the frontier. And that frontier mindset really does come from them. We owe them just as much as we do the Puritans, but they don’t ever really get their due.
We owe them so much and they really don’t get their due, unfortunately, a lot for the reasons that I just described around racialism is because post-mass immigration from Europe, the term white kind of became blanket applied to new Irish, to Italians, to Slovenians. And as you and I both know, if you travel those countries, people are pretty different. And it’s not the different here in the United States. Scots-Irish were some of the original settlers here in America, and particularly in Appalachia. And their contribution to the fighting spirit and their own culture and who we are as individualists and some of the first people to ever settle the frontier. And that frontier mindset really does come from them. We owe them just as much as we do the Puritans, but they don’t ever really get their due.
And the reason I recommend that book is if you read that book and you understand then how exactly could this group of white working class voters go from 2012 voting for a man named Barack Hussein Obama to Donald J. Trump? It makes perfect sense if you combine it with a lot of the stuff I’m talking about here, about affirmative action, about distrust of the elites, about feeling as if institutions are not seeing through to you and specifically also not valuing your contribution to American history, and in some cases actively looking down.
I’m glad you pointed out not only their role in the Revolutionary War, but in the Civil War as well, and just how much of a contribution culturally really that we owe them for the groundwork that so many of us who came later could build upon and adopt some of their own ideas and their culture as our own. It’s one of the things that makes America great.
Lex Fridman
Mark Twain.
Mark Twain.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So much of the culture, so much of the American spirit, the whole idea, the whole shape and form and type of populism that represents our democracy. So would you trace that fierce individualism that we think of back to them?
So much of the culture, so much of the American spirit, the whole idea, the whole shape and form and type of populism that represents our democracy. So would you trace that fierce individualism that we think of back to them?
Saagar Enjeti
Definitely. It’s a huge part of them, about who they were, about the screw you attitude. That book actually kind of had a renaissance back in 2016 when Hillbilly Elegy came out. I’m sure you remember this, which it’s kind of weird to think that it’s now the Vice President-elect of the United States. It’s kind of wild, honestly, to think about. But JD Vance’s book, Hillbilly Elegy, I think was really important for a lot of American elites who were like, “How do these poor people support Trump? Where does this shit come from?” Really, if you really think back to that time, it was shocking to the elite character that any person in the world could ever vote for Donald Trump. And not just vote, he won the election. How does that happen? And that’s Hillbilly Elegy guided people in an understanding of what that’s like on a lived day-to-day basis.
Definitely. It’s a huge part of them, about who they were, about the screw you attitude. That book actually kind of had a renaissance back in 2016 when Hillbilly Elegy came out. I’m sure you remember this, which it’s kind of weird to think that it’s now the Vice President-elect of the United States. It’s kind of wild, honestly, to think about. But JD Vance’s book, Hillbilly Elegy, I think was really important for a lot of American elites who were like, “How do these poor people support Trump? Where does this shit come from?” Really, if you really think back to that time, it was shocking to the elite character that any person in the world could ever vote for Donald Trump. And not just vote, he won the election. How does that happen? And that’s Hillbilly Elegy guided people in an understanding of what that’s like on a lived day-to-day basis.
And JD, to his credit, talks about Scots-Irish heritage, about Appalachia and the legacy of what that culture looks like today and how a lot of these people voted for Donald Trump. But we got to give credit to Jim Webb who wrote the history of these people and taught me and you about their original fight against the oppressors in Scotland and Ireland and their militant spirit and how they were able to bring that over here. And they got their due in Andrew Jackson and some of our other populist presidents who set us up on the road to Donald Trump to where we are today.
Lex Fridman
Dude, it got me pumped and excited to be an American.
Dude, it got me pumped and excited to be an American.
Saagar Enjeti
Me too. I love that book.
Me too. I love that book.
Lex Fridman
It’s crazy that JD, the same guy, because that’s Hillbilly Elegy’s, what I kind of thought of him as.
It’s crazy that JD, the same guy, because that’s Hillbilly Elegy’s, what I kind of thought of him as.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I’ll tell you, for me, it’s actually pretty surreal. I met JD Vance in 2017 in a bar. I didn’t ever think he would be the Vice President-elect of the United States. Just kind of wild.
Yeah, I’ll tell you, for me, it’s actually pretty surreal. I met JD Vance in 2017 in a bar. I didn’t ever think he would be the Vice President-elect of the United States. Just kind of wild.
One of my friends went back and dug up the email that we originally sent him, just like, “Hey, do you want to meet up?” And he was like, “Sure.” I was watching on television. The first time that it really hit me, I was like, whoa. It was like, name in a history book is whenever he became the vice presidential nominee. I was watching him on TV and the confetti was falling and he was waving with his wife, and I was like, “Wow, that’s it.” You’re in the history books now forever, especially now as the literal Vice President-elect of the US.
But his own evolution is actually a fascinating story for us too because I think a lot of the time I’ve spent right now is a lot of what I’m giving right now are 2016 kind of takes about why Trump won that time. But we just spent a lot of time on how Donald Trump won this election and what happened, some of the failures of the Biden administration, some of the payback for the Great Awokening. But also, if you look at the evolution of JD Vance, this is a person who wrote Hillbilly Elegy. And not a lot of people pay attention to this, but if you read Hillbilly Elegy, JD was much more of a traditional conservative at that time.
He was citing a report, I think the famous passage is about payday loans and why they’re good or something like that. I don’t know his position today, but I would assume that he’s probably changed that. But the point is that his ideological evolution from watching somebody who really was more of a traditional Republican with a deep empathy for the white working class than eventually become a champion and a disciple of Donald Trump, and to believe that he himself was the vehicle for accomplishing and bettering the United States, but specifically for working class Americans really of all stripes. And that story is really one of the rise of the modern left as it exists as a political project, as an ideology. It’s also one of the Republican Party which coalesced now with Donald Trump as a legitimate figure and as the single bulwark against cultural leftism and elitism that eventually was normalized to the point that majority of Americans decided to vote for him in 2024.
Biden
Lex Fridman
So let’s talk about 2024. What happened with the left? What happened with Biden? What’s your take on Biden?
So let’s talk about 2024. What happened with the left? What happened with Biden? What’s your take on Biden?
Saagar Enjeti
Biden is, I try to remove myself from it, and I try not to give big history takes while you’re in the moment. But it’s really hard not to say that he’s one of the worst presidents in modern history. And I think the reason why I’m going to go with it is because I want to judge him by the things that he set out to do.
Biden is, I try to remove myself from it, and I try not to give big history takes while you’re in the moment. But it’s really hard not to say that he’s one of the worst presidents in modern history. And I think the reason why I’m going to go with it is because I want to judge him by the things that he set out to do.
So Joe Biden has been the same person for his entire political career. He is a basically C student who thinks he’s an A student. The chip on his shoulder against the elites has played to his benefit in his original election to the United States Senate through his entire career as a United States Senator, where he always wanted to be the star and the center of attention and to his 1988 presidential campaign. And one of the most fascinating things about Biden and watching him age is watching him become even more of what he already was.
And so, a book recommendation, it’s called What It Takes, and it was written in 1988, and there’s actually a long chapter on Joe Biden and about the plagiarism scandal. One of the things that comes across is his sheer arrogance and belief in himself as to why he should be the center of attention.
Now, the reason I’m laying all this out is the arrogance of Joe Biden, the individual and his character is fundamentally the reason that his presidency went awry. This is a person who was elected in 2020, really because of a feeling of chaos of Donald Trump, of we need normalcy, decides to come into the office, portrays himself as a, quote-unquote, “transitional president,” slowly begins to lose a lot of his faculties and then surrounds himself with sycophants, the same ones who have been around him for so long that he had no single input into his life to tell him that he needed to stop and he needed to drop out of the race until it became truly undeniable to the vast majority of the American people.
And that’s why I’m trying to keep it as him as an individual, as a president, because we could separate him from some of his accomplishments and the things that happened on… Some of them I support, some I don’t, but generally, a lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the CHIPS Act. A lot of people are not going to look back and think about Joe Biden and the Build Back Better bill or whatever his Lina Khan antitrust policy. They’re going to look back on him and they’re going to remember high inflation. They’re going to remember somebody who fundamentally never was up to the job in the sense that, again, book recommendation Freedom From Fear by David Kennedy is about the Roosevelt years.
And one of the most important things people don’t understand is the New Deal didn’t really work in the way that a lot of people wanted it to. There was still high unemployment, there was still a lot of suffering, but you know what changed? They felt that they had a vigorous commander in chief who was doing everything in his power to attack the problems of the everyday American. So even though things didn’t even materially change, the vigor, that’s a term that was often associated with John F. Kennedy, he had vigor, in the Massachusetts accent. We had this young vibrant president in 1960, and he was running around and he wanted to convince us that he was working every single day tirelessly. And when you have an 80-year-old man who is simply just eating ice cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all these things go up-
Saagar Enjeti
… cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all this thing go up by 25%. And we don’t see the same vigor, we don’t see the same action, the biased action, which is so important in the modern presidency.
… cream and going to the beach while people’s grocery prices and all this thing go up by 25%. And we don’t see the same vigor, we don’t see the same action, the biased action, which is so important in the modern presidency.
That is fundamentally part of the reason why the Democrats lost the election and also why I think that he missed his moment in such a dramatic way. And he had the opportunity, he could have done it if he wanted to, but maybe 20 years ago. But the truth is that his own narcissism, his own misplaced belief in himself and his own accidental rise to the presidency ended up in his downfall.
And it’s amazing because again, if we look back to his original campaign speech 2019, why I’m running for president, it was Charlottesville, and he said, “I want to defeat Donald Trump forever and I want to make sure that he never gets back in the White House again.” By his own metric he did fail. It was the only thing he wanted to do, and he failed from.
FDR
Lex Fridman
You said a lot of interesting stuff. One, FDR that’s really interesting. It’s not about the specific policy, it’s about fighting for the people and doing that with charisma and just uniting the entire country for a… This is the same with Bernie. Maybe there’s a lot of people that disagree with Bernie that’s still supporting him because we just want somebody-
You said a lot of interesting stuff. One, FDR that’s really interesting. It’s not about the specific policy, it’s about fighting for the people and doing that with charisma and just uniting the entire country for a… This is the same with Bernie. Maybe there’s a lot of people that disagree with Bernie that’s still supporting him because we just want somebody-
Saagar Enjeti
Feels authentic.
Feels authentic.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
That’s it.
That’s it.
Lex Fridman
We just want somebody to fight authentically for us.
We just want somebody to fight authentically for us.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, yes. FDR people really… FDR was like a king. He was like Jesus Christ in the US. And some of it was because of what he did, but it was just the fight. People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate. He gets all this stuff through.
Yes, yes. FDR people really… FDR was like a king. He was like Jesus Christ in the US. And some of it was because of what he did, but it was just the fight. People need to go back and read the history of the first 100 days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate. He gets all this stuff through.
But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place. We’ve had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover. The difference was Hoover was seen as this do nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House, and he was a filthy rich banker. FDR comes in there and every single day has fireside chats. He’s passing legislation, but more importantly, so he tries various different programs.
Then they get ruled unconstitutional. He tries even more. What does America take away from that? Every single time if he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting. And that was a really part of his character that he developed after he got polio. And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression. He’s such an inspirational figure. He really is.
And people think of him for World War II, of course, we can spend forever on that. But in my opinion, the early years are not studied enough. 33 to 37 is one of the most remarkable periods in American history. We were not ruled by a president. We were ruled by a king, by a monarch. And people liked it. He was a dictator and he was a good one.
George W Bush
Lex Fridman
Yeah. To push back against the implied thing that you said.
Yeah. To push back against the implied thing that you said.
Saagar Enjeti
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
When saying Biden is the worst president-
When saying Biden is the worst president-
Saagar Enjeti
No second worst in modern history, that’s what I said.
No second worst in modern history, that’s what I said.
Lex Fridman
Second in modern history. Who’s the worst?
Second in modern history. Who’s the worst?
Saagar Enjeti
W, no question.
W, no question.
Lex Fridman
I see. Because of the horrible wars probably.
I see. Because of the horrible wars probably.
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, Iraq is just so bad.
I mean, Iraq is just so bad.
Lex Fridman
It’s just a mess. Yeah.
It’s just a mess. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
One of my favorite authors is a guy, Jean Edward Smith. He’s written a bunch of presidential biographies. And in the opening of his W Biography, he’s like, “There’s just no question. This is a single worst foreign policy mistake in all of American history. And W is one of our worst presidents ever.” He had terrible judgment and it got us into a war of his own choosing. It was a disaster, and it set us up for failure. By the way, we talked a lot about Donald Trump. Nobody is more responsible for the rise of Donald Trump than George W. Bush, but I could go off on Bush for a long time.
One of my favorite authors is a guy, Jean Edward Smith. He’s written a bunch of presidential biographies. And in the opening of his W Biography, he’s like, “There’s just no question. This is a single worst foreign policy mistake in all of American history. And W is one of our worst presidents ever.” He had terrible judgment and it got us into a war of his own choosing. It was a disaster, and it set us up for failure. By the way, we talked a lot about Donald Trump. Nobody is more responsible for the rise of Donald Trump than George W. Bush, but I could go off on Bush for a long time.
Lex Fridman
Oh, we will. We’ll return there. As part of the pushback I’d like to say, because I agree with your criticism of arrogance and narcissism against Joe Biden. The same could be said about Donald Trump.
Oh, we will. We’ll return there. As part of the pushback I’d like to say, because I agree with your criticism of arrogance and narcissism against Joe Biden. The same could be said about Donald Trump.
Saagar Enjeti
You’re absolutely right.
You’re absolutely right.
Lex Fridman
Of arrogance. And I think you’ve also articulated that a lot of presidents throughout American history have suffered from a bad case of arrogance and narcissism.
Of arrogance. And I think you’ve also articulated that a lot of presidents throughout American history have suffered from a bad case of arrogance and narcissism.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. But sometimes for a benefit. You have to be a pretty crazy person to want to be president. I had put out a tweet that got some controversy, and I think it was Joe Rogan, who I love, but he was like, “I want to find out who Kamala Harris is as a human being.” And I was like, “I’m actually not interested in who politicians are as human beings at all.” I was like, “I’ve read too much about them to know, I know who you are.” If you spend your life and because I live in Washington and I spend a lot of time around would-be politicians, I know what it takes to actually become the president. It’s crazy. You have to give up everything, everything.
Absolutely. But sometimes for a benefit. You have to be a pretty crazy person to want to be president. I had put out a tweet that got some controversy, and I think it was Joe Rogan, who I love, but he was like, “I want to find out who Kamala Harris is as a human being.” And I was like, “I’m actually not interested in who politicians are as human beings at all.” I was like, “I’ve read too much about them to know, I know who you are.” If you spend your life and because I live in Washington and I spend a lot of time around would-be politicians, I know what it takes to actually become the president. It’s crazy. You have to give up everything, everything.
Every night, you’re not spending it with your wife. You’re spending it at dinner with potential donors, with friends, with people who can connect you. Even after you get elected, that’s even moreso now you got to raise money and now you’re onto the next thing. Now you want to get your political thing through. You’re going to spend all your time on your phone. You and your staff are going to be more like this.
Your entire life revolves around your career. It’s honestly, you need an insane level of narcissism to do it because you have to believe that you are better than everybody else, which is already pretty crazy. And not only that, your own personal characteristics and foibles lead you to the pursuit of this office and to the pursuit of the idolatry of the self and everything around you.
LBJ
There’s a famous story of Lady Bird Johnson after Johnson becomes the president and he’s talking to the White House Butler. She was like, “Everything in this house revolves around my husband. Whatever’s left goes to the girls,” her two children, “And I’ll take the scraps.” Everything revolved around Johnson’s political career and his daughters, when they’re honest, because they like to paper over some of the things that happened under him, but they didn’t spend any time with him.
Saturday morning was for breakfast with Richard Russell, I forget. These are all in the Robert A. Caro books. Sunday was for Rayburn. There was no time for his kids. That’s what it was. And by the way, he’s one of the greatest politicians to ever live. But he also died from a massive heart attack and he was a deeply sad and depressed individual.
Lex Fridman
I saw that tweet, to go back to that. And also I listened to your incredible debate about it with Marshall on the Realignment podcast. And I have to side with Marshall. I think you’re just wrong on this.
I saw that tweet, to go back to that. And also I listened to your incredible debate about it with Marshall on the Realignment podcast. And I have to side with Marshall. I think you’re just wrong on this.
Saagar Enjeti
All right.
All right.
Lex Fridman
Because I think revealing the character of a person is really important to understand how they will act in a room full of generals and full of-
Because I think revealing the character of a person is really important to understand how they will act in a room full of generals and full of-
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, this gets to the judgment question.
Yeah, this gets to the judgment question.
Lex Fridman
The judgment.
The judgment.
Saagar Enjeti
And that’s, I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR. I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had. I think they had really, really good judgment. And I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world. JFK is actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in a room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile crisis.
And that’s, I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR. I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had. I think they had really, really good judgment. And I’m not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world. JFK is actually, JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in a room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile crisis.
And he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that. But how did he arrive to good judgment? Some of it certainly was his character, and we can go again though into his laundry list of that. But most of it was around being with his father, seeing some of the mistakes that he would make. And he was also had a deeply inquisitive mind and he experienced World War II at the personal level after PT 109.
Look, I get it. I actually could steal, man. The response to what I’m saying is judgment is not divisible from personal character, but just because I know a lot of politicians and I’ve read enough with the really great ones, the people who I revere the most, there’s really bad personal stuff basically every single time.
Lex Fridman
But you’re saying the judgment was good?
But you’re saying the judgment was good?
Saagar Enjeti
His judgment was great. His judgment-
His judgment was great. His judgment-
Lex Fridman
On the Cuban Missile Crisis.
On the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Some of the best judgment and decision-making in the history of America.
Some of the best judgment and decision-making in the history of America.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, and we should study a lot of it. And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text. We were forced to read it in graduate school, the Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. I’m so thankful we did. It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works. This is also a useful transition, by the way, if we want to talk about Trump and some of his cabinet and how that is shaping up because people really need to understand Washington.
Yes, and we should study a lot of it. And I encourage people out there, this is a brutal text. We were forced to read it in graduate school, the Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. I’m so thankful we did. It’s one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works. This is also a useful transition, by the way, if we want to talk about Trump and some of his cabinet and how that is shaping up because people really need to understand Washington.
Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don’t care about you. They don’t even really care about the president. They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way. And it usually takes a great shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal. Every once in a while you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who’s actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.
The question around the essence of decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision. And there are various different schools of thought. But one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then kind of The Great Man Theory as well. you and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT 109 and about how John F. Kennedy experienced World War II as this, I think it was a First Lieutenant or something like that. And how he literally swam miles with a wounded man’s life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back, and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life Magazine and he was a war hero. And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which to this day is considered a text, which at the moment was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement.
I actually have a original copy is one of my most prized possessions. And from 1939, because this is a 23-year-old kid, who the fuck are you, John F. Kennedy? Turns out he’s a brilliant man. And another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody. In the room at the same time, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, the general, who will succeed him. 26-year-old John F. Kennedy as a journalist, some shit head journalists on the side, and all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others. And that’s the story of America right there. It’s kind of amazing. I loved people to say that because you never know about who will end up rising to power.
Lex Fridman
Are you announcing that you’re running for president?
Are you announcing that you’re running for president?
Saagar Enjeti
No, absolutely not.
No, absolutely not.
Lex Fridman
Good.
Good.
Saagar Enjeti
I don’t have what it takes. I don’t think so. I’m self-aware.
I don’t have what it takes. I don’t think so. I’m self-aware.
Lex Fridman
Well, maybe humility is necessary for greatness. Okay. Actually, can we just linger on that book?
Well, maybe humility is necessary for greatness. Okay. Actually, can we just linger on that book?
Cuban Missile Crisis
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
The book, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis by Graham Allison, it presents three different models of how government works, the Rational Act model, so seeing government as one entity. Trying to maximize the national interest. Also seeing government as through the lens of the momentum of standard operating procedures. So this giant organization that’s just doing things how it’s always been done. And the government politics model of there’s just these individual internal power struggles within government. And all of that is a different way to view, and they’re probably all true to a degree, of how decisions are made within this giant machinery of government.
The book, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis by Graham Allison, it presents three different models of how government works, the Rational Act model, so seeing government as one entity. Trying to maximize the national interest. Also seeing government as through the lens of the momentum of standard operating procedures. So this giant organization that’s just doing things how it’s always been done. And the government politics model of there’s just these individual internal power struggles within government. And all of that is a different way to view, and they’re probably all true to a degree, of how decisions are made within this giant machinery of government.
Saagar Enjeti
That’s why it’s so important is because you cannot read that book and say one is true and one is not. You can say one is more true than the other, but all of them are deeply true. And this is one, or this is probably a good transition to Donald Trump because… And I guess for the people out there who think I’ve been up too obsequious, you’ll be my criticism, Trump says something very fundamental and interesting on the Joe Rogan podcast, probably the most important thing that he ever said. Which is he said, “I like to have people like John Bolton in my administration, well, because scare people and it makes me seem like the most rational individual in the room.”
That’s why it’s so important is because you cannot read that book and say one is true and one is not. You can say one is more true than the other, but all of them are deeply true. And this is one, or this is probably a good transition to Donald Trump because… And I guess for the people out there who think I’ve been up too obsequious, you’ll be my criticism, Trump says something very fundamental and interesting on the Joe Rogan podcast, probably the most important thing that he ever said. Which is he said, “I like to have people like John Bolton in my administration, well, because scare people and it makes me seem like the most rational individual in the room.”
At a very intuitive level, a lot of people can understand that, and then they can rationalize, while there are picks that Donald Trump has brought into his White House, people like Mike Waltz and others that have espoused views that are directly at odds with a “anti-neocon anti-Liz Cheney agenda”. Now, Trump’s theory of this is that he likes to have “psychopaths” like John Bolton in the room with him while he’s sitting across from Kim Jong Un because it gets scared.
What I think Trump never understood when he was president, and I honestly question if he still does now, is those two theories that you laid out, which are not about the rational interest as the government is one model, but the bureaucratic theory and the organizational theory of politics. And because what Trump I don’t think quite gets is that there are 99% of the decisions that get made in government never reached the president’s desk. One of the most important Obama quotes ever is, “By the time it gets to my desk, nobody else can solve it. All the problems here are hard. All the problems here don’t have an answer. That’s why I have to make the call.”
The theory that Trump has that you can have people in there who are, let’s say warmongers, neocons or whatever, who don’t necessarily agree with you, is that when push comes to shove at the most important decisions, that I’ll still be able to rein those people in as an influence. Here’s the issue. Let’s say for Mike Waltz, who’s going to be the National Security Advisor, a lot of people don’t really understand there’s this theory of national security advisor where you call me into your office and you’re the president and you’re like, “Hey, what do we think about Iran?” I’m like, “I think you should do X, Y, and Z.”
No, that’s not how it works. The national security advisor’s job is to coordinate the inter-agency process. His job is to actually convene meetings, him and his staff, where in the situation room, CIA, state Department, SECDEF, others before the POTUS even walks in, we have options. We’re like, “Hey, Russia just invaded Ukraine. Weed a package of options. Those packages of options are concede of three things. We’re going to have one group, we’re going to call it the dovish option. Two, we’re going to call it the middle ground. Three, the hardcore package.”
Trump walks in, this is how it’s supposed to work. Trump walks in and he goes, “Okay, Russia invaded Ukraine. What do we do?” “Mr. President, we’ve prepared three options for you. We got one, two, and three.” Now, who has the power? Is it Trump when he picks one, two, or three? Or is the man who decides what’s even in option one, two, and three? That is the part where Trump needs to really understand how these things happen.
And I watched this happen to him in his first administration. He hired a guy, Mike Flynn, who was his national security advisor. You could say a lot about Flynn, but him and Trump were at least like this on foreign policy. Flynn gets outed because what I would call an FBI coup, whatever. 33 days, he’s out as a national security advisor, H.R McMaster, he’s got a nice shiny uniform, four star, all of this. McMaster doesn’t agree with Donald Trump at all. And so Trump says, “I ran on pulling out of Afghanistan, I want to get out of Afghanistan.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll get out of Afghanistan, but before we get out, we got to go back in.” As in we need more troops in there. And he’s like, “Oh, okay.” It’s like all this and proves a plan and effectively gives a speech in 2017 where he ends up escalating and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan. And it’s only until February, 2020 that he gets to sign a deal, the Taliban peace deal, which in my opinion, he should have done in 2017.
But the reason why that happened was because of that organizational theory, of that bureaucratic politics theory where H.R McMaster is able to guide the inter-agency process, bring the uniform recommendations of the joint chiefs of staff and others to give Donald Trump no option but to say, “We must put troops.” Another example of this is a book called Obama’s War by Bob Woodward. I highly encourage people to read this book because this book talks about how Obama comes into the White House in 2009 and he says, “I want to get out of Iraq and I don’t want to increase… I want to fight the Good War in Afghanistan.” Obama’s a thoughtful guy, too thoughtful actually. And so he sits there and he’s working out his opinions. And what he starts to watch is that very slowly his options began to narrow because strategic leaks start to come out from the White House situation room about what we should do in Afghanistan.
And pretty soon David Petraeus and Stan McChrystal and the entire national security apparatus has Obama pegged where he basically politically at the time decides to take the advantage position of increasing troops in Afghanistan, but then tries to have it both ways by saying, “But in two years, we’re going to withdraw.” That book really demonstrates how the deep state can completely remove any of your options to be able to move by presenting you with ones which you don’t even want, and then making it politically completely infeasible to travel down the extreme directions.
That’s why when Trump says things like, “I want to get out of Syria,” that doesn’t compute up here for the Pentagon. Because first of all, if I even asked you how many troops we have in Syria, and you could go on the DOD website, it’ll tell you a number. The number’s bullshit because the way that they do it is if you’re only there for 179 days, you don’t count as active, military contracts. The real numbers, let’s say five times.
And so Trump would be like, “Hey, I want to get out of Syria.” They’re like, “Yeah, we’ll do it. Six months, we need six months.” And after six months ago, he goes, “So, are we out of Syria yet?” And they’re like, “No. Well, we got to wrap this up. We got this base, we got that, and we have this important mission.” And next thing you know, you’re out of office and it’s over. That there’s all these things which I don’t think he quite understands. I know that some of the people around him who disagree with these picks do is the reason why these picks really matter, it’s not only are the voices in the situation room for the really, really high profile stuff, it’s where all little things to never get to that president’s desk of which can shape extraordinary policy.
And I’ll give you the best example. There was never a decision by FDR as President of the United States to oil embargo Japan. One, which he thought about as deeply as you and I would want. It was a decision made within the State Department. It was a decision that was made by some of his advisors. I think he eventually signed off on it. It was a conscious choice, but it was not one which ever was understood the implications that by doing that, we invite a potential response like Pearl Harbor. So think about what the organizational bureaucratic model can tell us about the extraordinary blowback that we can get and why we want people with great judgment all the way up and down the entire national security chain in the White House.
Immigration
Also, I just realized I did not talk about immigration, which is so insane. One of the reasons Donald Trump won in 2024, of course, was because of the massive change to the immigration status quo. The truth is is that it may actually be second to inflation in terms of the reason that Trump did win the presidency was because Joe Biden fundamentally changed the immigration status quo in this country. That was another thing about the Scots-Irish people and others that we need to understand is that when government machinery and elitism and liberalism appears to be more concerned about people who are coming here in a disorderly and illegal process and about their rights and their ability to “pursue the American dream,” while the American dream is dying for the native-born population, that is a huge reason why people are turning against mass immigration. Historically as well, my friend, Reihan Salam, wrote a book called Melting Pot or Civil War? And one of the most important parts about that book is the history of mass migration to the United States.
If we think about the transition from Scots-Irish America to the opening of America to the Irish and to mass European immigration, what a lot of people don’t realize is it caused a ton of problems. There were mass movements at the time, the no nothings and others in the 1860s who rose up against mass European migration. They were particularly concerned about Catholicism as the religion of a lot of the new immigrants.
But really what it was is about the changing of the American character by people who are not have the same traditions, values and skills as the native-born population. And their understanding of what they’re owed and their role in American society is very different from the way that people previously had. One of the most tumultuous periods of US politics was actually during the resolution of the immigration question where we had massive waves of foreign-born population come to the United States. We had them integrated, luckily actually at the time with the Industrial Revolution. So we actually did have jobs for them.
One of the problems is that today in the United States, we have one of the highest levels of foreign-born population than ever before, actually since that time in the early 1900s. But we have all of the same attendant problems. But even worse is we don’t live in an industrial economy anymore. We live in a predominantly service-based economy that has long moved past manufacturing.
Now, I’m not saying we shouldn’t bring some of that back, but the truth is that manufacturing today is not what it was to work in a steel mill in 1875. I think we can all be reasonable and we can agree on that. And part of the problems with extremely high levels of foreign-born population, particularly unskilled, and the vast majority of the people who are coming here and who are claiming asylum are doing so under fraudulent purposes. They’re doing so because they are economic migrants and they’re abusing asylum law to basically gain entrance to the United States without going through a process of application or of merit. And this has all of its traces back to 1965 where the Immigration Naturalization Act of 1965 really reversed and changed the status quo of immigration from the 1920s to 1960, which really shut down levels of immigration to the United States. In my opinion, it was one of the most important things that ever happened. And one of the reasons why is it forced and caused integration. It also forced by slowing down the increase in the number of foreign-born population, it redeveloped an American character and an understanding that was more homogenous and was the ability for you and me to understand despite the difference in our background.
If you accelerate and you continue this trend of the very high foreign-born unskilled population, you unfortunately are basically creating a mass… It’s basically it’s a non-citizen population of illegal immigrants, people who are not as skilled. I think I read 27% of the people who’ve come under Joe Biden illegally don’t even have a college degree. That means that we are lucky if they’re even literate in Spanish, let alone English. So there are major problems about integrating that type of person. Even in the past, whenever we had a mass industrial economy, now imagine today the amount of strain that would put on social services if mass citizenship happened to that population would be extraordinary.
I don’t think it’s a good idea, but even if we were to do so, we would still need to pair it with a dramatic change. And part of the problem right now is I don’t think a lot of people understand that immigration system. The immigration system in the United States, effectively they call it family-based migration. I call it chain migration. Chain migration is the term which implies that let’s say you come over here and you get your green card. You can use sponsorship and others by gaming the quota system to get your cousin or whatever to be able to come. The problem with that is who is your cousin? Is he a plumber? Is he a coder? That doesn’t actually matter because he’s your cousin si he actually has preference.
The way that it should work is it should be nobody cares if he’s your cousin. What does he do? What does she do? What is she going to bring to this country? All immigration in the United States, in my opinion, should be net positive without doing fake statistics about, “Oh, they actually increased the GDP or whatever.” It’s like we need a merit-based immigration system. We are the largest country in the world and one of the only Western countries in the world that does not have a merit-based points-based immigration system like Australia and, or Canada.
And I mean, I get it because a lot of people did come to this country under non-merit-based purposes, so they’re really reluctant to let that go. But I do think that Biden, by changing the immigration status quo and by basically just allowing tens of millions, potentially tens of millions, at the very least 12 million new entrants to come to the US under these pretenses of complete disorder and of no conduct, really broke a lot of people’s understanding and even mercy in that regard. And so that was obviously a massive part of Trump’s victory.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of illegal immigration, what do you think about the border czar, Tom Homan?
Speaking of illegal immigration, what do you think about the border czar, Tom Homan?
Saagar Enjeti
Tom Homan is a very legit dude, got to know him a little bit in Trump 1.0. He is an original true believer on enforcing immigration law as it is. Now notice how I just said that. That’s a politically correct way of saying mass deportation. And I will point out for my left wing critics in that, yeah, he really believes in the ability, in the necessity of mass deportation, and he has the background to be able to carry that out. I will give some warnings, and this will apply to Doge too. czar has no statutory or constitutional authority. czar has as much authority as the President of the United States gives him. Donald Trump, I think it’s fair to say, even as critics or even the people who love him could say he can be capricious at times. And he can strip you or not strip you or give you the ability to compel.
Tom Homan is a very legit dude, got to know him a little bit in Trump 1.0. He is an original true believer on enforcing immigration law as it is. Now notice how I just said that. That’s a politically correct way of saying mass deportation. And I will point out for my left wing critics in that, yeah, he really believes in the ability, in the necessity of mass deportation, and he has the background to be able to carry that out. I will give some warnings, and this will apply to Doge too. czar has no statutory or constitutional authority. czar has as much authority as the President of the United States gives him. Donald Trump, I think it’s fair to say, even as critics or even the people who love him could say he can be capricious at times. And he can strip you or not strip you or give you the ability to compel.
Czar in and of itself is frankly a very flawed position in the White House, and it’s one that I really wish we would move away from. I understand why we do it. It’s basically to do a national security advisor inter-agency convener to accomplish certain goals. That said, there is a person, Stephen Miller, who will be in the White House, the Deputy White House chief of staff who has well-founded beliefs, experience in government and rock solid ideology on this, which I think would also give him the ability to work with Homan to pull that off.
That said, a corollary to this, and frankly this is the one I’m the most mystified yet, is Kristi Noem as the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. Let me just lay this out for people because people don’t know what this is. The Department of Homeland Security, 90% of the time the way you’re going to interact with them is TSA. You don’t think about it. But people don’t know. The Department of Homeland Security is one of the largest law enforcement if maybe the largest law enforcement agency in the world. It’s gigantic. You have extraordinary statutory power to be able to prove investigations. You have border patrol, ICE, TSA, CBP, all these other agencies that report up to you. But most importantly for this, you will be the public face of mass deportation.
I was there in the White House briefing room last time around when Kirstjen Nielsen, who was the DHS secretary under Donald Trump, and specifically the one who enforced child separation for a limited period of time. She was a smart woman. She has long experience in government. And honestly, she melted under the criticism. Kirsti Noem is the governor of South Dakota. I mean, that’s great. You have a little bit of executive experience, but to be honest, I mean you have no law enforcement background. You have no, frankly, with understanding of what it is going to be like to be the secretary of one of the most controversial programs in modern American history.
You have to go on television and defend that every single day, a literal job requirement under Donald Trump. And you will have to have extraordinary command of the facts. You have to have a very high intellect. You have to have the ability to really break through. And I mean, we all watch how she handled that situation with her dog and her interviews. And that does not give me confidence that she will be able to do all that well in the position.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is behind that?
What do you think is behind that?
Saagar Enjeti
I have no idea.
I have no idea.
Lex Fridman
Krystal Ball’s theory on Breaking Points is that there’s some kind of interpersonal…
Krystal Ball’s theory on Breaking Points is that there’s some kind of interpersonal…
Saagar Enjeti
I can explain it.
I can explain it.
Lex Fridman
I should know this, but I didn’t know any of… There was some cheating or whatever.
I should know this, but I didn’t know any of… There was some cheating or whatever.
Saagar Enjeti
There’s a rumor nobody knows if it’s true that Corey Lewandowski and Kirsti Noem had a previous relationship ongoing. Corey Lewandowski is a Trump official and that he maybe put her in front. I don’t know.
There’s a rumor nobody knows if it’s true that Corey Lewandowski and Kirsti Noem had a previous relationship ongoing. Corey Lewandowski is a Trump official and that he maybe put her in front. I don’t know.
Lex Fridman
Is this like the Real Housewives of DC?
Is this like the Real Housewives of DC?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, but kind of, although I mean it was the most open secret in the world, allegedly. I don’t know if it’s true. Okay. All right. I don’t like to traffic too much in personal theories. But I mean in this respect, it might actually be correct in terms of how it all came down. I have no idea what he’s thinking to be… I truly don’t. I mean, maybe it’s like he was, last time he said, “I want a woman who’s softer and emotionally and the ability to be the face of my immigration program.” I mean, again, like I said, I don’t see it. In terms of her experience and her media, it’s frankly not very good.
Yeah, but kind of, although I mean it was the most open secret in the world, allegedly. I don’t know if it’s true. Okay. All right. I don’t like to traffic too much in personal theories. But I mean in this respect, it might actually be correct in terms of how it all came down. I have no idea what he’s thinking to be… I truly don’t. I mean, maybe it’s like he was, last time he said, “I want a woman who’s softer and emotionally and the ability to be the face of my immigration program.” I mean, again, like I said, I don’t see it. In terms of her experience and her media, it’s frankly not very good.
Lex Fridman
You think she needs to be, not just be the softer face of this radical policy, but also be able to articulate what’s happening with the reasoning behind all that?
You think she needs to be, not just be the softer face of this radical policy, but also be able to articulate what’s happening with the reasoning behind all that?
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. You need to give justification for everything. Here’s the thing. Under mass deportation, the media will drag up every sob story known to planet Earth about this person and that person who came here illegally and why they deserve to stay. And really what the quasi thing is. That’s why the program itself is bad and we should legalize everybody who’s here illegally. Okay.
Yes. You need to give justification for everything. Here’s the thing. Under mass deportation, the media will drag up every sob story known to planet Earth about this person and that person who came here illegally and why they deserve to stay. And really what the quasi thing is. That’s why the program itself is bad and we should legalize everybody who’s here illegally. Okay.
The thing is that you need to be able to have extraordinary oversight. You need a great team with you. You need to make sure that everything is being done by the book. The way that the media is being handled is that you throw every question back in their face and you say, “Well, you either talk about crime or you talk about the enforceability of the law, the necessity.” I mean, I just I think articulated a very coherent case for why we need much less high levels of immigration to the United States. And I am the son of people who immigrated to this country.
But one of the favorite phrases I heard from this, from a guy named Mark Corcoran, who’s a center for immigration studies, is, “We don’t make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandparents. We make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandchildren.” And that is an extraordinary and good way to put it. And in fact, I would say it’s a triumph of the American system that somebody whose family benefited from the immigration regime and was able to come here. My parents had PhDs, came here legally, applied, spent thousands of dollars through the process. Can arrive at the conclusion that actually we need to care about all of our fellow American citizens. I’m not talking about other Indians or whatever. I’m talking about all of us. I care about everybody who is here in this country. But fundamentally, that will mean that we are going to have to exclude some people from the US.
And another thing that the open borders people don’t ever really grapple with is that even within their own framework, it makes no sense. for example, a common left-wing talking point is that it’s America’s fault that El Salvador and Honduras and Central America is fucked up. And so because of that, we have a responsibility to take all those people in because our fault. Or Haiti, right? But if you think about it, America is responsible, and I’m just being honest, for destroying and ruining a lot of countries. They just don’t benefit from the geographic ability to walk to the United States.
I mean, if we’re doing grievance politics, Iraqis have way more of a claim to be able to come here than anybody from El Salvador who’s talking about something that happened in 1982. Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense. Even under the-
Saagar Enjeti
Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense. Even under the asylum process, people don’t even know this, you’re literally able to claim asylum from domestic violence. Okay? I mean, imagine that. Frankly, that is a local law enforcement and problem of people who are experiencing that in their home country. I know how cold-hearted this sounds, but maybe, honestly, it could be because I’m Indian.
Within its own logic, it doesn’t make any sense. Even under the asylum process, people don’t even know this, you’re literally able to claim asylum from domestic violence. Okay? I mean, imagine that. Frankly, that is a local law enforcement and problem of people who are experiencing that in their home country. I know how cold-hearted this sounds, but maybe, honestly, it could be because I’m Indian.
One of the things that whenever you visit India and you see a country with over a billion people, you’re like, “Holy shit. This is crazy,” and you understand both the sheer numbers of the amount of people involved, and also, there is nothing in the world you could ever do to solve all problems for everybody. It’s a very complex and dynamic problem, and it’s really nice to be bleeding heart and to say, “Oh, well, we have responsibility to this and to all mankind and all that,” but it doesn’t work. It doesn’t work with the nation state. It doesn’t work with the sovereign nation. We’re the luckiest people in the history of the world to live here in this country, and you need to protect it and protecting it requires really thinking about the fundamentals of immigration itself and not telling us stories.
There’s a famous moment from the Trump White House where Jim Acosta, CNN white House correspondent, got into it with Stephen Miller, who will be the current deputy chief, and he was like, “What do you say,” something along the lines, “to people who say you’re violating that quote on the Statue of Liberty, ‘Give me you’re tired, you’re poor, you’re hungry,’?” all of that,” the Emma Lazarus quote. And Stephen very logically was like, “What level of immigration comports with the Emma Lazarus quote? Is it 200,000 people a year? Is it 300? Is it 1 million? Is it 1.5 million?”
And that’s such a great way of putting it because there is no limiting principle on Emma Lazarus quote. There is, when you start talking, honestly, you’re like, “Okay. We live in X, Y, and Z society with X, Y, and Z GDP. People who are coming here should be able to benefit for themselves and us not rely on welfare, not be people who we have to take care of after because we have our own problems here right now and who are the population and the types of people that we can study and look at who will be able to benefit, and based on that, yeah, immigration is great,” but there are a lot of economic, legal and societal reasons for why you definitely don’t want the current level.
But another thing is even if we turn the switch and we still let in 1,000,005 people a year under the chain family-based migration, I think it would be a colossal mistake because it’s not rooted in the idea that people who are coming to America are explicitly doing so at the benefit of America. It’s doing so based on the familial connections of people who already gamed the immigration system to be able to come here.
I have a lot of family in India and I love them, and some of them are actually very talented and qualified. If they wanted to come here, I think they should be able to apply on their own merit and that should have nothing to do with their familial status of the fact that I’m a US citizen.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned in the book Melting Pot or Civil War by Reihan Salam. He makes an argument against the open borders. The thesis there is a simulation should be a big part. I guess there’s some kind of optimal rate of immigration which allows for a simulation.
You mentioned in the book Melting Pot or Civil War by Reihan Salam. He makes an argument against the open borders. The thesis there is a simulation should be a big part. I guess there’s some kind of optimal rate of immigration which allows for a simulation.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, and there are ebbs and flows, and that’s what I was talking about historically where, I mean, the truth is you could walk the streets of New York City in the early 1900s and the late 1890s and you’re not going to hear any English, and I think that’s bad. I mean, really what you had was ethnic enclaves of people who were basically practicing their way of life just like they did previously, bringing over a lot of their ethnic problems that they had and even some of their cultural unique capabilities or whatever, bringing it to America, and then New York City police and others are figuring out like, “What the hell do we do with all of this?” And it literally took shutting down immigration for an entire generation to do away with that and there’s actually still some.
Yeah, and there are ebbs and flows, and that’s what I was talking about historically where, I mean, the truth is you could walk the streets of New York City in the early 1900s and the late 1890s and you’re not going to hear any English, and I think that’s bad. I mean, really what you had was ethnic enclaves of people who were basically practicing their way of life just like they did previously, bringing over a lot of their ethnic problems that they had and even some of their cultural unique capabilities or whatever, bringing it to America, and then New York City police and others are figuring out like, “What the hell do we do with all of this?” And it literally took shutting down immigration for an entire generation to do away with that and there’s actually still some.
The point about assimilation is twofold. One is that you should have the capacity to inherit the understanding of the American character that has nothing to do with race, and that’s so unique that I can sit here as a child of people from India and has such a deep appreciation for the Scots Irish. I consider myself American first, and one of the things that I really love about that is that I have no historical relationship to anybody who fought in the Civil War, but I feel such kinship with a lot of the people who did and reading the memoirs and the ideas of those that did because that same mindset of the victors and the values that they were able to instill in the country for 150 years later gives me the ability to connect to them. And that’s such an incredible victory on their part and that’s such a unique thing.
In almost every other country in the world, in China and India or wherever, you’re kind of like what you are. You’re a Hindu, you’re a Jew, you’re a Han Chinese, you’re a Uyghur or you’re Tibetan, something like that. You’re born into it. But really here, it was one of the only places in the world where you can really connect to that story and that spirit and the compounding effect of all of these different people who have come to America, and that is a celebration of immigration as an idea.
But immigration is also a discrete policy, and that policy was really screwed up by the Biden administration. And so we can celebrate the idea and also pursue a policy for all of the people in the US, our citizens to actually be able to benefit. And look, it’s going to be messy, and honestly, I still don’t know yet if Trump will be able to pursue actual mass deportation just because I think that I’m not sure the public is ready for it. I do support mass deportation. I don’t know if the public is ready for it. I think, I don’t know. I’ll have to see because there’s a lot of different ways that you can do it.
There’s mandatory E-Verify, which requires businesses to basically verify you’re a US citizen or you’re here legally whenever they employ you, which is not the law of the land currently, which is crazy, by the way. You can cut off or tax remittance payments, which are payments that are sent back to other countries like Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. Again, illustrating my economic migrant point. There are a lot of various different ways where you can just make it more difficult to be illegally here in the US so people will self-deport, but if he does pursue real mass deportation, that will be a flashpoint in America.
Lex Fridman
Aren’t you talking about things like what Tom Homan said, the work site raids, sort of increasing the rate of that?
Aren’t you talking about things like what Tom Homan said, the work site raids, sort of increasing the rate of that?
Saagar Enjeti
We used to do that.
We used to do that.
Lex Fridman
But there’s a rate at which you can do that where it would lead to, I mean, radical social upheaval.
But there’s a rate at which you can do that where it would lead to, I mean, radical social upheaval.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, it will. I mean, and I think some people need to be honest here, and this actually flies in the face of … I mean, one of the most common liberal critiques is this is going to raise prices, and yeah, I think it’s true. I think it’s worth it, but that’s easy for me to say. I’m making a good living. If you care about inflation, you voted for Donald Trump and your price of groceries or whatever goes up because of this immigration policy, I think that needs to be extremely well-articulated by the president and of course, he needs to think about it.
Yeah, it will. I mean, and I think some people need to be honest here, and this actually flies in the face of … I mean, one of the most common liberal critiques is this is going to raise prices, and yeah, I think it’s true. I think it’s worth it, but that’s easy for me to say. I’m making a good living. If you care about inflation, you voted for Donald Trump and your price of groceries or whatever goes up because of this immigration policy, I think that needs to be extremely well-articulated by the president and of course, he needs to think about it.
The truth is is America right now is built on cheap labor. It’s not fair to the consumer, it’s not fair to the immigrants, the illegal immigrants themselves, and it’s not fair to the natural born citizen. The natural born citizen has his wages suppressed for competition by tens of millions of people who are willing to work at lower wages. They have to compete for housing, for social services. I mean, just even basic stuff at a societal level, it’s not fair to them. It’s definitely not fair to the other person because, I mean, whenever people say who’s going to build your houses or whatever, you’re endorsing this quasi-legal system where uninsured laborers from Mexico, they have no guarantee of wages, they’re getting paid cash under the table, they are living 10 to a room, they’re sending Mexican remittance payments back just so that their children can eat. That’s not really fair to that person either.
So that’s the point. The point is is that it will lead to a lot of social upheaval, but this gets to my Kristi Noem point as well is you need to be able to articulate a lot of what I just said here because if you don’t, it’s going to go south real quick.
Lex Fridman
The way that Vivek articulates this is that our immigration system is deeply dishonest. We don’t acknowledge some of the things he just said.
The way that Vivek articulates this is that our immigration system is deeply dishonest. We don’t acknowledge some of the things he just said.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Lex Fridman
And he wants to make it honest. So if we don’t do mass deportation, at least you have to be really honest about the living conditions of illegal immigrants, about basically mistreatment of them.
And he wants to make it honest. So if we don’t do mass deportation, at least you have to be really honest about the living conditions of illegal immigrants, about basically mistreatment of them.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, it’s true. I mean, if you support mass illegal migration, you’re basically supporting tens of millions who are living lives as second class citizens. That’s not fair to them. I also think it’s deeply paternalistic. So there’s this idea that America has so ruined these Central American countries that they have no agency whatsoever and they can never turn things around. What does that say about our confidence in them?
Yes, it’s true. I mean, if you support mass illegal migration, you’re basically supporting tens of millions who are living lives as second class citizens. That’s not fair to them. I also think it’s deeply paternalistic. So there’s this idea that America has so ruined these Central American countries that they have no agency whatsoever and they can never turn things around. What does that say about our confidence in them?
One of the things they always say there, “Oh, they’re law-abiding, they’re great people,” and all that. I agree. Okay? By and large, I’m not saying these are bad people, but I am saying if they’re not bad and they’re law-abiding and they’re citizens and thoughtful and all that, they can fix their own countries and they did in El Salvador. That’s the perfect example.
Look at the dramatic drop in their crime rate. Bukele is one of the most popular leaders in all of South America. That is proof positive that you can change things around despite perhaps the legacy of US intervention. So to just say this idea that because it’s America’s fault that they’re screwed up, it takes agency away from them.
Another really key part of this dishonesty, this really gets to Springfield and the whole Haitian thing because everybody, beyond the eating cats and dogs, everybody does not even acknowledge because when they’re like, “The Haitians are here legally,” they need to actually think about the program. The program is called TPS. So let me explain that. TPS is called Temporary Protected Status. Note, what’s the first word on that? Temporary. What does that mean? TPS was developed under a regime in which let’s say that there was a catastrophic … I think this is a real example. I think there was a volcano or an earthquake or something where people were granted TPS to come to the United States, and the idea was they were going to go back after it was safe. They just never went back.
There are children born in the United States today who are adults, who are the descendants of people who are still living in the US under TPS. That’s a perfect example of what Vivek says is dishonest. You can’t mass de facto legalize people by saying that they’re here temporarily because of a program or because of something that happened in their home country when the reality is that for all intents and purposes, we are acknowledging them as full legal migrants. So even the term migrant to these Haitians in Springfield makes no sense because they’re supposed to be here under TPS. Migrant implies permanency.
So the language is all dishonest and people don’t want to tell you about the things I just said about chain migration. The vast majority of Americans don’t even know how the immigration system works. They don’t understand what I just said about TPS. They don’t really understand the insanity of asylum law, where you can just literally throw up your hands and say, “I fear for my life,” and you get to live here for four or five years before your court date even happens, and by that time, you get a work permit or whatever, you can get housing, like you just said, in substandard conditions, and you can kind of just play the game and wait before a deportation order comes, and even if it does, you never have to leave because there’s no ice agent or whatever who’s going to enforce it. So the whole system is nuts right now, and we need complete systematic reform that burns it all to the ground.
Lex Fridman
That said, the image and the reality of a child being separated from their parents seems deeply un-American, right?
That said, the image and the reality of a child being separated from their parents seems deeply un-American, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I mean, look, it gets … Okay. So I’m not going to defend it, but I’ll just put it this way.
Well, I mean, look, it gets … Okay. So I’m not going to defend it, but I’ll just put it this way.
Lex Fridman
Do you hate children?
Do you hate children?
Saagar Enjeti
See, this is what I mean. Do you think twice whenever you see a drug addict who’s put in prison and their child is put in protective services? Nobody in America thinks twice about that, right?
See, this is what I mean. Do you think twice whenever you see a drug addict who’s put in prison and their child is put in protective services? Nobody in America thinks twice about that, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
So I mean, well, that’s kind of screwed up. Well, what we should think about, why did we come to that conclusion? The conclusion was is that these adults willingly broke the law and pursued a path of life, which put them on a trajectory where the state had to come in and determine that you are not allowed to be a parent basically to this child while you serve your debt to society. Now, child separation was very different. Child separation was also a product of extremely strange circumstances in US immigration law, where basically at the time, the reason why it was happening was because there was no way to prosecute people for illegal entry without child separation because previous doctrine, I believe it’s called the Flores Doctrine under some asylum law. People will have to go check my work on this. But basically, the whole reason this evolved as a legal regime was because people figured out that if you bring a kid with you because of the so-called Flores Doctrine or whatever, that you couldn’t be prosecuted for illegal entry, so it was a de facto way of breaking the law.
So I mean, well, that’s kind of screwed up. Well, what we should think about, why did we come to that conclusion? The conclusion was is that these adults willingly broke the law and pursued a path of life, which put them on a trajectory where the state had to come in and determine that you are not allowed to be a parent basically to this child while you serve your debt to society. Now, child separation was very different. Child separation was also a product of extremely strange circumstances in US immigration law, where basically at the time, the reason why it was happening was because there was no way to prosecute people for illegal entry without child separation because previous doctrine, I believe it’s called the Flores Doctrine under some asylum law. People will have to go check my work on this. But basically, the whole reason this evolved as a legal regime was because people figured out that if you bring a kid with you because of the so-called Flores Doctrine or whatever, that you couldn’t be prosecuted for illegal entry, so it was a de facto way of breaking the law.
And in fact, a lot of people were bringing children here who weren’t even theirs, who they weren’t even related to or couldn’t even prove it, were bringing them to get around the prosecution for illegal entry. So I’m not defending child separation. I think it was horrible or whatever, but if I gave you the context, it does seem like a very tricky problem in terms of do we enforce the law or not, how are we able to do that, and the solution, honestly, is what Donald Trump did was remain in Mexico and then pursue a complete rewrite of the way that we have US asylum law applied and of asylum adjudication and really just about enforcing our actual laws.
So what I try to explain to people is the immigration system right now is a patchwork of this deeply dishonest, such a great word, deeply dishonest system in which you use the system and set it up in such ways that illegal immigration is actually one of the easiest things to do to accomplish immigration to the United States. That is wrong. My parents had to apply. It wasn’t easy.
Do you know in India there’s a temple called the Visa Temple where you walk 108 times around it, which is like a lucky number, and you do it when you’re applying for a visa to the United States. It costs a lot of money and it’s hard. People get rejected all the time. There’s billions of people across the world who would love to be able to come here, and many of them want to do so legally and they should have to go through a process. The current way it works is it’s easier to get here illegally than it is legally. I think that’s fundamentally right. It’s also unfair to people like us whose parents did come here legally.
Lex Fridman
Can you still man the case against mass deportation? What are the strongest arguments?
Can you still man the case against mass deportation? What are the strongest arguments?
Saagar Enjeti
The strongest argument would be that these people contribute to society, that these people, many of whom millions of here, have been here for many years who have children, natural born citizens because of birthright citizenship, it would require something that’s fundamentally inhumane and un-American as you said, the idea of separating families across different borders simply because of what is “small decision of coming here illegally”, and the best case beyond any of this moral stuff for no mass deportation is it’s good for business. Illegal immigration is great for big business. It is great for big agriculture. So if you want the lowest prices of all time, then yeah, mass deportation is a terrible idea.
The strongest argument would be that these people contribute to society, that these people, many of whom millions of here, have been here for many years who have children, natural born citizens because of birthright citizenship, it would require something that’s fundamentally inhumane and un-American as you said, the idea of separating families across different borders simply because of what is “small decision of coming here illegally”, and the best case beyond any of this moral stuff for no mass deportation is it’s good for business. Illegal immigration is great for big business. It is great for big agriculture. So if you want the lowest prices of all time, then yeah, mass deportation is a terrible idea.
Lex Fridman
First of all, very convincing, and second of all, I mean, you can’t just do mass deportation without also fixing the immigration system, right?
First of all, very convincing, and second of all, I mean, you can’t just do mass deportation without also fixing the immigration system, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, exactly. And I mean, there are several pieces of legislation. H.R.2, that’s something that the Republicans have really coalesced around. It’s a border bill. I encourage people to go read it and see some of the different fixes to the US immigration system. I’m curious whether it’ll actually pass or not. Remember, there’s a very slim majority of the House of Representatives for Republicans this time around, and people vote for a lot of things when they’re not in power, but when it’s actually about to become the law, we’ll see. There’s a lot of swing state people out there who may think twice before casting that vote. So I’m definitely curious to see how that one plays out.
Yes, exactly. And I mean, there are several pieces of legislation. H.R.2, that’s something that the Republicans have really coalesced around. It’s a border bill. I encourage people to go read it and see some of the different fixes to the US immigration system. I’m curious whether it’ll actually pass or not. Remember, there’s a very slim majority of the House of Representatives for Republicans this time around, and people vote for a lot of things when they’re not in power, but when it’s actually about to become the law, we’ll see. There’s a lot of swing state people out there who may think twice before casting that vote. So I’m definitely curious to see how that one plays out.
The other thing is is that, like I just said, the biggest beneficiary of illegal immigration is big business. So if you think they’re going to take this one lying down, absolutely not. They will fight for everything that they have to keep their pool of cheap labor because it’s great for them. I think JD said a story. I think he was on Rogan about how he talked to a hotelier chain guy and he was like, “Yeah, it’s just terrible. They would take away our whole workforce.” And he was like, “Do you hear yourself in terms of what you’re talking, you’re bragging about?” but that’s real. That’s a real thing.
And that, Tyson Foods and all these other people, that’s another really sad part is … What I mean by second class citizenship is this presumption, first of all, that Americans think it’s too disgusting to process meat or to work in a field. I think anybody will do anything for the right wage, first of all, but second is the conditions in a lot of those facilities are horrible and they’re covered up for a reason, not only in terms of the way that businesses, they actually conduct themselves, but also to cover up their illegal immigrant workforce. So honestly, I think it could make things better for everything.
Lex Fridman
You have studied how government works. What are the chances mass deportation happens?
You have studied how government works. What are the chances mass deportation happens?
Saagar Enjeti
Well, it depends how you define it. So I mean, mass deportation could mean one million. I mean, nobody even knows how many people are here illegally. It could be 20 million, it could be 30 million. I’ve seen estimates of up to 30 million, which is crazy. That’s almost 1/11 of the entire US population.
Well, it depends how you define it. So I mean, mass deportation could mean one million. I mean, nobody even knows how many people are here illegally. It could be 20 million, it could be 30 million. I’ve seen estimates of up to 30 million, which is crazy. That’s almost 1/11 of the entire US population.
Lex Fridman
What number do you think will feel like mass deportation? One million people?
What number do you think will feel like mass deportation? One million people?
Saagar Enjeti
A million people is a lot.
A million people is a lot.
Lex Fridman
That’s a lot of people.
That’s a lot of people.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s a lot, but the crazy part is that’s only 1/12 of what Joe Biden led in the country. So it’s one of those. That just to give people the scale of what it will all look like. Do I think mass deportation will happen? It depends on the definition. Will one million over four years? Yeah, I feel relatively confident in that. Anything over that, it’s going to be tough to say. Like I said, probably the most efficient way to do it is to have mandatory E-Verify and to have processes in place where it becomes very difficult to live in the United States illegally, and then you’ll have mass self-deportation and they will take the victory lap on that, but actual rounding millions of people up and putting them in deportation facilities and then arranging flights to God knows all across the globe, that’s a logistical nightmare. It would also cost a lot of money.
It’s a lot, but the crazy part is that’s only 1/12 of what Joe Biden led in the country. So it’s one of those. That just to give people the scale of what it will all look like. Do I think mass deportation will happen? It depends on the definition. Will one million over four years? Yeah, I feel relatively confident in that. Anything over that, it’s going to be tough to say. Like I said, probably the most efficient way to do it is to have mandatory E-Verify and to have processes in place where it becomes very difficult to live in the United States illegally, and then you’ll have mass self-deportation and they will take the victory lap on that, but actual rounding millions of people up and putting them in deportation facilities and then arranging flights to God knows all across the globe, that’s a logistical nightmare. It would also cost a lot of money.
And don’t forget, Congress has to pay for all of this. So we can have DOGE or we can have mass deportation. So those two things are kind of irreconcilable, actually. There’s a lot of competing influences at play that people are not being real about at all.
DOGE
Lex Fridman
That was one of the tensions I had talking to Vivek is he’s big on mass deportation and big on making government more efficient, and it really feels like there’s a tension between those two in the short-term.
That was one of the tensions I had talking to Vivek is he’s big on mass deportation and big on making government more efficient, and it really feels like there’s a tension between those two in the short-term.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, yes, absolutely. Also, I mean, this is a good segue. I’ve been wanting to talk about this. I’m sympathetic to DOGE, to the whole Department of Government Efficiency.
Well, yes, absolutely. Also, I mean, this is a good segue. I’ve been wanting to talk about this. I’m sympathetic to DOGE, to the whole Department of Government Efficiency.
Lex Fridman
How unreal is it that it’s called DOGE?
How unreal is it that it’s called DOGE?
Saagar Enjeti
Actually, with Elon, it’s quite real. I guess I’ve accepted Elon as a major political figure in the US, but the DOGE committee, the Department of Government Efficiency is a non-statutory agency that has zero funding that Donald Trump says will advise OMB, the Office of Management and Budget.
Actually, with Elon, it’s quite real. I guess I’ve accepted Elon as a major political figure in the US, but the DOGE committee, the Department of Government Efficiency is a non-statutory agency that has zero funding that Donald Trump says will advise OMB, the Office of Management and Budget.
Now, two things. Number one is, as I predicted, DOGE would become a “Blue Ribbon Commission”. So this is a non-statutory Blue Ribbon Commission that has been given authority to Vivek Ramaswamy and to Elon Musk. Secondary, their recommendations to government should be complete by July of 2026 according to the press release released by Trump. First of all, what that will mean is they’re probably going to need private funding to even set all this up. That’s great, not a problem for Elon, but you’re basically going to be able to have to commission GAO reports, Government Accountability Office and other reports and fact-finding missions across the government, which is fantastic. Trump can even empower you to go through to every agency and to collect figures.
None of it matters one iota if Republican appropriators in the House of Representatives care what you have to say. Historically, they don’t give a shit what the executive office has to say. So every year, the president releases his own budget. It used to mean something, but in the last decade or so, it’s become completely meaningless. The House Ways and Means Committee and the People’s House are the ones who originate all appropriations and set up spending. So that’s one is that DOGE in and of itself has no power. It has no ability to compel or force people to do anything. Its entire case for being, really, if you think about it mechanically, is to try and convince and provide a report to Republican legislators to be able to cut spending. So that’s that. Now, we all know how Congress takes to government reports and whether they get acted on or not. So that’s number one.
Number two is the figures that Elon is throwing out there. Again, I want to give them some advice because people do not understand federal government spending. The absolute vast majority of government spending is entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are untouchable under Donald Trump and their most politically popular programs in the world, and military spending, discretionary non-military spending. I don’t have the exact figure in front of me. It’s a very, very small part of the federal budget.
Now, within that small slice, about 90% of that eight is bipartisan and is supported by everybody. NOAA, you know the hurricane guys? Like people like that, people who are flying into the eye of the hurricane, people who are government inspectors of X, Y and Z. The parts that are controversial that you’re actually able to touch, things like welfare programs like food stamps is an extraordinary small slice.
So what’s the number we put out there? Five trillion? Something like that? There is only one way to do that, and realistically under the current thing, you have to radically change the entire way that the Pentagon buys everything. And I support that, but I just want to be very, very clear, but I haven’t seen enough energy around that. There’s this real belief in the US that we spend billions on all of these programs that are doing complete bullshit, but the absolute vast majority of it is military spending and entitlements. Trump has made clear entitlements are off the table. It’s not going to happen.
So the way that you’re going to be able to cut realistically military spending over a decade long period is to really change the way that the United States procures military equipment, hands out government contracts. Elon actually does have the background to be able to accomplish this because he has had to wrangle with SpaceX and the bullshit that Boeing has been pulling for over a decade, but I really want everybody’s expectations to be very set around this. Just remember, non-statutory, Blue Ribbon.
So if he’s serious about it, I just laid out all of these hurdles that he’s going to have to overcome, and I’m not saying him and Vivek aren’t serious dudes, but you got to really know the system to be able to accomplish this.
Lex Fridman
So you just laid out the reality of how Washington works. To give the counterpoint that I think you’re probably also rooting for is that one is a statement like Peter Thiel said, “Don’t bet against Elon.”
So you just laid out the reality of how Washington works. To give the counterpoint that I think you’re probably also rooting for is that one is a statement like Peter Thiel said, “Don’t bet against Elon.”
Saagar Enjeti
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
One of the things that you don’t usually have with Blue Ribbon is the kind of megaphone that Elon has.
One of the things that you don’t usually have with Blue Ribbon is the kind of megaphone that Elon has.
Saagar Enjeti
True.
True.
Lex Fridman
And I would even set the financial aspects aside, just the influence he has with the megaphone but also just with other people who are also really influential. I think that can have real power when backed by a populist movement.
And I would even set the financial aspects aside, just the influence he has with the megaphone but also just with other people who are also really influential. I think that can have real power when backed by a populist movement.
Saagar Enjeti
I don’t disagree with you, but let me give you a case where this just failed. So Elon endorsed who for Senate Majority Leader? Rick Scott, right? Who got the least amount of votes in the US Senate for GOP leader? Rick Scott. John Thune is the person who got it. Now, the reason I’m bringing that up, one of my favorite books, Master of the Senate by Robert Caro, part of the LBJ series, the Senate has an institution, it reveres independence. It reveres. I mean, the entire theory of the Senate is to cool down the mob that is in the House of Representatives and to deliberate. That’s its entire body. They are set up to be immune from public pressure.
I don’t disagree with you, but let me give you a case where this just failed. So Elon endorsed who for Senate Majority Leader? Rick Scott, right? Who got the least amount of votes in the US Senate for GOP leader? Rick Scott. John Thune is the person who got it. Now, the reason I’m bringing that up, one of my favorite books, Master of the Senate by Robert Caro, part of the LBJ series, the Senate has an institution, it reveres independence. It reveres. I mean, the entire theory of the Senate is to cool down the mob that is in the House of Representatives and to deliberate. That’s its entire body. They are set up to be immune from public pressure.
Now, I’m not saying they can’t be pressured, but that example I just gave on Rick Scott is a very important one of he literally endorsed somebody for leader, so did Tucker Carlson, so did a lot of people online, and only 13 senators voted for Rick Scott. The truth is is that they don’t care. They’re set up where they’re marginally popular in their own home states, they’ll be able to win their primaries, and that’s all they really need to do to get elected, and they have six-year terms. They’re not even up for four years.
So will Elon still be interested in politics six years from now? That’s a legitimate question for a Republican senator. So maybe he could get the House of Representatives to sign off maybe on some of his things, but there’s no guarantee that the Senate is going to agree with any of that.
There’s a story that Caro tells in Master of the Senate book, which I love, where Thomas Jefferson was in Paris during the writing of the Constitution, and he asked Washington, he said, “Why did you put in a Senate, a bicameral legislature?” And Washington said, “Why did you pour your tea into a saucer?” and Jefferson goes, “To cool it,” and Washington says, “Just so,” to explain it. He was a man of very few words. He was a brilliant man.
Lex Fridman
Okay. So you actually outlined the most likely thing that’s going to happen with DOGE as it hits the wall of Washington. What is the most successful thing that can be pulled off?
Okay. So you actually outlined the most likely thing that’s going to happen with DOGE as it hits the wall of Washington. What is the most successful thing that can be pulled off?
Saagar Enjeti
The most successful thing they could do is right now, I think they’re really obsessed with designing cuts and identifying cuts. I would redesign systems, systems of procurement. I would redesign the way that we have processes in place to dispense taxpayer dollars because the truth is is that appropriations itself, again, are set by the United States Congress, but the way that those appropriations are spent by the government, the executive has some discretionary authority.
The most successful thing they could do is right now, I think they’re really obsessed with designing cuts and identifying cuts. I would redesign systems, systems of procurement. I would redesign the way that we have processes in place to dispense taxpayer dollars because the truth is is that appropriations itself, again, are set by the United States Congress, but the way that those appropriations are spent by the government, the executive has some discretionary authority.
So your ability as the executive to be a good steward of the taxpayer money and to redesign a system which I actually think Elon could be good at this and Vivek too in terms of their entrepreneurial spirit is the entire Pentagon procurement thing, it needs to be burned to the ground. Number one, it’s bad for the Pentagon. It gives them substandard equipment. It rewards very old weapons systems and programs and thinking that can be easily defeated by people who are studying that for vulnerabilities. The perfect example is all of this drone warfare in Ukraine and in Russia. I mean, drone warfare costs almost nothing, and yet drone swarms and hypersonic missiles pose huge dangers to US systems, which cost more than hundreds of billions of dollars.
So my point is that giving nimble procurement and systemic change in the way that we think about executing the mission that Congress does give you actually could save the most amount of money in the long run. That’s where I would really focus in on.
The other one is, counter to everything I just said, is maybe they would listen. Maybe the Republicans are like, “Yeah, okay. Let’s do it.” The problem again though is swing state people who need to get reelected, they need to do one thing. They need to deliver for their district. They need to run on stuff, and nobody has ever run on cutting money for your state. They have run on bringing money to your state. And that’s why earmarks and a lot of these other things are extraordinarily popular in Congress is because it’s such an easy way to show constituents how you’re working for them whenever it does come reelection time. So it’s a very difficult system.
And I also want to tell people who are frustrated by this, I share your frustration, but the system is designed to work this way. And for two centuries, the Senate has stood as a bulwark against literally every popular change, and because of that, it’s designed to make sure that it’s so popular for long enough that it has to become inevitable before the status quo can change. That’s really, really frustrating, but you should take comfort in that it’s always been that way, so it’s been okay.
Lex Fridman
Well, as I’ve learned from one of the recommendations of The Age of Acrimony, I feel embarrassed that I didn’t know that senators used to not be elected.
Well, as I’ve learned from one of the recommendations of The Age of Acrimony, I feel embarrassed that I didn’t know that senators used to not be elected.
Saagar Enjeti
What a crazy system, huh?
What a crazy system, huh?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean, many of the things we take for granted now as defining our democracy was kind of invented, developed after the Civil War in the 50 years after the Civil War.
Yeah. I mean, many of the things we take for granted now as defining our democracy was kind of invented, developed after the Civil War in the 50 years after the Civil War.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely correct. Age of Acrimony, oh, my God, I love that book. I cannot recommend it enough. It is so important. And one of the biggest mistakes that Americans make is that we study periods where greatness happened, but we don’t often study periods where nothing happened or where really bad shit happened. We don’t spend nearly enough. Americans know about FDR. They don’t really know anything about the depression or how we got there.
Absolutely correct. Age of Acrimony, oh, my God, I love that book. I cannot recommend it enough. It is so important. And one of the biggest mistakes that Americans make is that we study periods where greatness happened, but we don’t often study periods where nothing happened or where really bad shit happened. We don’t spend nearly enough. Americans know about FDR. They don’t really know anything about the depression or how we got there.
What was it like to be alive in the United States in 1840? Right? Nobody thinks about that really because it’s kind of an in-between time in history. There are people who lived their entire lives, who were born, who had to live through those times, who were just as conscientious and intelligent as you and I are and were just trying to figure shit out and things felt really big. So the Age of Acrimony is a time where it’s almost completely ignored outside of the Gilded age aspect.
But like you just said, it was a time where progressive reform of government and of the tension between civil rights, extraordinary wealth and democracy and really the reigning in of big business, so many of our foundations happened exactly in that time. And I take a lot of comfort from that book because one of the things I learned from the book is that voter participation is highest when people are pissed off, not when they’re happy, and that’s such a counterintuitive thing, but voter participation goes down when the system is working.
So 2020, right? I think we can all agree it was very tense election. That’s also why it had the highest voter participation ever. 2024, very high rates of participation. Same thing. People are pissed off, and that’s actually what drives them to the vote, but something that I take comfort in that is that people being pissed off and people going out to vote, it actually does have major impact on the system because otherwise, the status quo is basically allowed to continue and so-
Saagar Enjeti
… [inaudible 01:33:00] the status quo is basically allowed to continue. And so, yeah, like you just said, I mean, direct election of senators… I mean, there are probably people alive today who were born when there was no direct election of senators, which is an insane thing to think about. I mean, there’d be almost 100 or so. But the point is that that time, it was so deeply corrupt, and it was one where the quasi aristocracy from the early days leading into the Gilded Age, were able to enforce their will upon the people. But you can take comfort in that that was one of those areas where Americans were so fed up with it, they changed the constitution and actually force the aristocrats in power to give their own power. It’s like our version of when they flipped power and took away the legislative power of the House of Lords in the UK. I just think that’s amazing and it’s such a cool thing about our country and the UK too.
… [inaudible 01:33:00] the status quo is basically allowed to continue. And so, yeah, like you just said, I mean, direct election of senators… I mean, there are probably people alive today who were born when there was no direct election of senators, which is an insane thing to think about. I mean, there’d be almost 100 or so. But the point is that that time, it was so deeply corrupt, and it was one where the quasi aristocracy from the early days leading into the Gilded Age, were able to enforce their will upon the people. But you can take comfort in that that was one of those areas where Americans were so fed up with it, they changed the constitution and actually force the aristocrats in power to give their own power. It’s like our version of when they flipped power and took away the legislative power of the House of Lords in the UK. I just think that’s amazing and it’s such a cool thing about our country and the UK too.
Lex Fridman
It’s the continued battle between the people and the elite. Right? And we should mention not just the direct election of senators, but the election of candidates for a party.
It’s the continued battle between the people and the elite. Right? And we should mention not just the direct election of senators, but the election of candidates for a party.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
That was also invented. It used to be that the, quote-unquote, party bosses, I say that with half a chuckle, chose the candidate.
That was also invented. It used to be that the, quote-unquote, party bosses, I say that with half a chuckle, chose the candidate.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. The whole system is nuts. The way that we currently experience politics is such a modern invention.
Yeah. The whole system is nuts. The way that we currently experience politics is such a modern invention.
Lex Fridman
With a little asterisk with Kamala Harris, but-
With a little asterisk with Kamala Harris, but-
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Yeah, good point. Well, that was actually more of a mean reversion, right? We’re living in an extraordinarily new era where we actually have more input than ever on who our candidates are. It used to be… This is crazy. So the conventions have always taken place two months before, right? Imagine a world where you did not know who the nominee was going to be before that convention, and the nominee literally was decided at that convention by those party bosses. Even crazier, there used to be a standard in American politics where presidents did not directly campaign. They, in fact, did not even comment about the news or mention their opponent’s names. They would give speeches from their doorstep, but it was unseemly for them to engage in direct politics.
Right. Yeah, good point. Well, that was actually more of a mean reversion, right? We’re living in an extraordinarily new era where we actually have more input than ever on who our candidates are. It used to be… This is crazy. So the conventions have always taken place two months before, right? Imagine a world where you did not know who the nominee was going to be before that convention, and the nominee literally was decided at that convention by those party bosses. Even crazier, there used to be a standard in American politics where presidents did not directly campaign. They, in fact, did not even comment about the news or mention their opponent’s names. They would give speeches from their doorstep, but it was unseemly for them to engage in direct politics.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You would not get a Bernie Sanders.
Yeah. You would not get a Bernie Sanders.
Saagar Enjeti
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
You would not get a Donald Trump.
You would not get a Donald Trump.
Saagar Enjeti
Obama, Bill Clinton… I mean, basically every president from John F. Kennedy onwards has been a product of the new system. Every president prior to that has been much more of the older system. There was an in-between period post-FDR where things were really changing, but the primary system itself had its first true big win under John F. Kennedy.
Obama, Bill Clinton… I mean, basically every president from John F. Kennedy onwards has been a product of the new system. Every president prior to that has been much more of the older system. There was an in-between period post-FDR where things were really changing, but the primary system itself had its first true big win under John F. Kennedy.
Lex Fridman
I think that the lesson from that is there’s a collective wisdom to the people. Right?
I think that the lesson from that is there’s a collective wisdom to the people. Right?
Saagar Enjeti
I think so.
I think so.
Lex Fridman
I think it works.
I think it works.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. I mean, well, okay, I’ll steel man it. We had some great presidents in the party boss era. FDR was a great president. FDR was the master of coalitional politics of his ability. In fact, what really made him a genius was his ability to get this overthrow, the support of a lot of the corruption and the elite Democrats to take control in there at the convention, and then combine his personal popularity to fuse all systems of power where he had the elites basically under his boot because he was the king, and he used his popular power and his support from the people to be able to enforce things up and down.
Yeah. I mean, well, okay, I’ll steel man it. We had some great presidents in the party boss era. FDR was a great president. FDR was the master of coalitional politics of his ability. In fact, what really made him a genius was his ability to get this overthrow, the support of a lot of the corruption and the elite Democrats to take control in there at the convention, and then combine his personal popularity to fuse all systems of power where he had the elites basically under his boot because he was the king, and he used his popular power and his support from the people to be able to enforce things up and down.
I mean, even in the party boss era, a lot of the people we revere really came out of that. People like Abraham Lincoln. I mean, I don’t think Abraham Lincoln would have won a party primary in 1860. There’s no chance. He won, luck, thank God, from an insane process in the 1860 Republican Convention. People should go read about that because that was wild. I think we were this close to not having Lincoln as president. And, yeah, I mean, Teddy Roosevelt, there’s so many that I could point to who made great impacts on history. So the system does find a way to still produce good stuff.
Lex Fridman
That was a beautiful diversion from the Doge discussion. If you’re going to return briefly to Doge, so you talked about cost-cutting, but there’s also increasing the efficiency of government, which you also talked about with procurement, and maybe we can throw into the pile, the 400-plus federal agencies. So let’s take another perspective on what success might look like. So radically successful Doge, would it basically cut a lot of federal agencies?
That was a beautiful diversion from the Doge discussion. If you’re going to return briefly to Doge, so you talked about cost-cutting, but there’s also increasing the efficiency of government, which you also talked about with procurement, and maybe we can throw into the pile, the 400-plus federal agencies. So let’s take another perspective on what success might look like. So radically successful Doge, would it basically cut a lot of federal agencies?
Saagar Enjeti
Probably combine.
Probably combine.
Lex Fridman
Combine?
Combine?
Saagar Enjeti
Okay, so I can give great examples of this because I have great insight. For each agency will often use different payroll systems. They’ll have different internal processes. Right? That makes no sense, and it’s all because it’s antiquated. Now, everybody always talks about changing it, but there are a lot of party interests about why certain people get certain things. The real problem with the government, the people like us who are private, and for example, when you want to do something, you can just do it. So I was listening to a really interesting analysis about law enforcement and the military. So I think the story was that National Guard guys were assigned to help with the border, and they were trying to provide… I think it was translation services to people at border patrol. But somebody had to come down and be like, “Hey, this has got to stop. According to US Code X, Y, and Z, the United States military cannot help with law enforcement abilities here.”
Okay, so I can give great examples of this because I have great insight. For each agency will often use different payroll systems. They’ll have different internal processes. Right? That makes no sense, and it’s all because it’s antiquated. Now, everybody always talks about changing it, but there are a lot of party interests about why certain people get certain things. The real problem with the government, the people like us who are private, and for example, when you want to do something, you can just do it. So I was listening to a really interesting analysis about law enforcement and the military. So I think the story was that National Guard guys were assigned to help with the border, and they were trying to provide… I think it was translation services to people at border patrol. But somebody had to come down and be like, “Hey, this has got to stop. According to US Code X, Y, and Z, the United States military cannot help with law enforcement abilities here.”
And so even though that makes absolutely no sense, because they’re all work, there are literal legal statutes in place that prevent you from doing the most efficient thing possible. So for some reason, we have to have a ton of Spanish speakers in SouthCom, in the US Command that is responsible for South America, who literally cannot help with a crisis at the border. Now, maybe you can find some legal chicanery to make that work, but, man, you got to have an attorney general who knows what he’s doing. You need a White House counsel. You need to make sure that shit stands up in a court of law. I mean, it’s not so simple. Whereas let’s say you have a software right here and you want to get a new software, you can just do it. You can hire whoever you want. When you’re the government, there’s a whole process you got to go through about bidding, and it just takes forever and it is so inefficient.
But unfortunately, the inefficiency is really derivative of a lot of legal statutes, and that is something that, again, actually radically successful Doge, quote-unquote, would be study the law, and then change it. Instead of cost- cutting, cut this program or whatever, like I just said about why do different systems use payroll, just say that you can change the statute under which new software can be updated, let’s say, after 90 days. I’ve heard stories of people who work for the government who still have IBM mainframe in 2024 that they’re still working, because those systems have never been updated. There’s also a big problem with a lot of this clearance stuff. That’s where a lot of inefficiency happens because a lot of contractors can only work based upon previous clearance that they already got. Achieving a clearance is very expensive. It’s very lengthy process. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be, talking about security clearance, but it does naturally create a very small pool that you can draw some contracts fund.
And I even mean stuff like the janitor at the Pentagon needs a security service, right? So clearance. So there’s only five people who can even apply for that contract. Well, naturally, in an interim monopoly like that, he’s going to jack his price up because he literally has a moat around his product. Whereas if you were hiring a… Whatever, anybody for anything, that type of credentialism and legal regime, it doesn’t matter at all. So there are a million problems like this that people in government run into, and that is what I would see is the most successful.
Lex Fridman
Paperwork slows everything down, and it feels impossible to break through that in a incremental way.
Paperwork slows everything down, and it feels impossible to break through that in a incremental way.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s so hard.
It’s so hard.
Lex Fridman
It feels like the only way to do it is to literally shut down agencies in some radical way, and then build up from scratch. Of course, as you highlight, that’s going to be opposed by a lot of people within government.
It feels like the only way to do it is to literally shut down agencies in some radical way, and then build up from scratch. Of course, as you highlight, that’s going to be opposed by a lot of people within government.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Well, historically, there’s only one way to do it, and it’s a really bad answer. War.
Yeah. Well, historically, there’s only one way to do it, and it’s a really bad answer. War.
Lex Fridman
War. Yes. I was going to say, basically you have the consensus where, “Okay, all this stupid bureaucratic bullshit we’ve been doing, we need to put that aside. Get the fuck out of here. We need to win a war. So all the paperwork, all the lawyers go leave, please,”
War. Yes. I was going to say, basically you have the consensus where, “Okay, all this stupid bureaucratic bullshit we’ve been doing, we need to put that aside. Get the fuck out of here. We need to win a war. So all the paperwork, all the lawyers go leave, please,”
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. No, but I want people to really understand that. Up until 1865 or 1860, I forget the exact year, we didn’t even have national currency. And then we were like, “Well, we need a greenback.” And prior to that, people would freak out if we were talking about having national currency, greenback backed by the US government and all of that. Not even a question, passed in two weeks in the US Congress. An income tax eventually went away, but not even in the realm of possibility, and they decided to pass it. Same thing after World War I. And you think about how World War II… I mean, World War II just fundamentally changed the entire way the United States government works. Even the DHS, which I mentioned earlier, the Department of Homeland Security, it didn’t even exist prior to 9/11. It was done as response to 9/11 to coalesce all of those agencies under one branch to make sure that nothing like that could ever happen again. And so historically, unfortunately, absolute shitshow disaster war is the only thing that moves and throws the paperwork off the table. And I wish I wasn’t such a downer, but I’ve read too much and I’ve had enough experience now in Washington to just see how these dreams get crushed instantly. And I wish it wasn’t that way. I mean, it’s a cool idea and I want people who are inspired, who are getting into politics to think that they can do something, but I want them to be realistic too, and I want them to know what they’re signing up for whenever they do something like that, and the Titanic amount of work it’s going to take for you to be able to accomplish something.
Yeah. No, but I want people to really understand that. Up until 1865 or 1860, I forget the exact year, we didn’t even have national currency. And then we were like, “Well, we need a greenback.” And prior to that, people would freak out if we were talking about having national currency, greenback backed by the US government and all of that. Not even a question, passed in two weeks in the US Congress. An income tax eventually went away, but not even in the realm of possibility, and they decided to pass it. Same thing after World War I. And you think about how World War II… I mean, World War II just fundamentally changed the entire way the United States government works. Even the DHS, which I mentioned earlier, the Department of Homeland Security, it didn’t even exist prior to 9/11. It was done as response to 9/11 to coalesce all of those agencies under one branch to make sure that nothing like that could ever happen again. And so historically, unfortunately, absolute shitshow disaster war is the only thing that moves and throws the paperwork off the table. And I wish I wasn’t such a downer, but I’ve read too much and I’ve had enough experience now in Washington to just see how these dreams get crushed instantly. And I wish it wasn’t that way. I mean, it’s a cool idea and I want people who are inspired, who are getting into politics to think that they can do something, but I want them to be realistic too, and I want them to know what they’re signing up for whenever they do something like that, and the Titanic amount of work it’s going to take for you to be able to accomplish something.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But I’ve also heard a lot of people in Silicon Valley laughing when Elon rolled in and fired 90% of Twitter. Here’s this guy, Elon Musk-
Yeah. But I’ve also heard a lot of people in Silicon Valley laughing when Elon rolled in and fired 90% of Twitter. Here’s this guy, Elon Musk-
Saagar Enjeti
You are absolutely correct.
You are absolutely correct.
Lex Fridman
… knows nothing about running a social media company. Of course, you need all these servers. Of course, you need all these employees. And nevertheless, the service keeps running.
… knows nothing about running a social media company. Of course, you need all these servers. Of course, you need all these employees. And nevertheless, the service keeps running.
Saagar Enjeti
He figured it out, and you have to give him eternal credit for that. I guess the difference is there was no law that he could fire them. At the end of the day, he owned the company. He had total discretion of his ability to move. So I’m not even saying his ideas are bad. I’m saying that what makes him such an incredible visionary entrepreneur, it’s movement, it’s deference at times to the right people, but also the knowledge of every individual piece of the machine and his ability to come in and execute his full vision at any time and override any of the managers.
He figured it out, and you have to give him eternal credit for that. I guess the difference is there was no law that he could fire them. At the end of the day, he owned the company. He had total discretion of his ability to move. So I’m not even saying his ideas are bad. I’m saying that what makes him such an incredible visionary entrepreneur, it’s movement, it’s deference at times to the right people, but also the knowledge of every individual piece of the machine and his ability to come in and execute his full vision at any time and override any of the managers.
So I talked previously about the professional managerial class and the managerial revolution. Elon is one of the few people who’s ever built a multi-billion-dollar company who has not actually fallen victim to the managerial revolution and against entrepreneurship and innovation that happens there. There are very few people who can do it. Elon, Steve Jobs. But what do we learn is that, unfortunately, after Steve died, Apple basically did succumb to the managerial revolution and has become the product… They make all their money by printing services and making it impossible to leave this ecosystem as opposed to building the most cool product ever. As much as I love my Vision Pro, don’t get me wrong.
Lex Fridman
I think you just admitted that you’re part of a cult.
I think you just admitted that you’re part of a cult.
Saagar Enjeti
I know. I literally am. I am. I fully admit it.
I know. I literally am. I am. I fully admit it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. I miss Steve.
Yeah. I miss Steve.
Lex Fridman
The grass is greener on the other side. Come join us. Okay. Whether it’s Elon or somebody else, what gives you hope about something like a radical transformation of government towards efficiency, towards being more slim? What gives you hope that that will be possible?
The grass is greener on the other side. Come join us. Okay. Whether it’s Elon or somebody else, what gives you hope about something like a radical transformation of government towards efficiency, towards being more slim? What gives you hope that that will be possible?
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I wouldn’t put it that way. I don’t think slimness in and of itself is a good thing. What I care about is the relationship to people and its government. So the biggest problem that we have is that we have a complete loss of faith in all of our institutions. And I really encourage people… I don’t think people can quite understand what the relationship between America and its government was like after World War II and after FDR. 90% of the people trusted the government. That’s crazy. When the president said something, they were like, “Okay, he’s not lying.”
Well, I wouldn’t put it that way. I don’t think slimness in and of itself is a good thing. What I care about is the relationship to people and its government. So the biggest problem that we have is that we have a complete loss of faith in all of our institutions. And I really encourage people… I don’t think people can quite understand what the relationship between America and its government was like after World War II and after FDR. 90% of the people trusted the government. That’s crazy. When the president said something, they were like, “Okay, he’s not lying.”
Think about our cynical attitude towards politicians today. That is largely the fault of Lyndon Johnson and of Richard Nixon and that entire fallout period of Vietnam. Vietnam, in particular, really broke the American character and its ability and its relationship with government, and we’ve never recovered faith in institutions ever since that. And it’s really unfortunate. So what makes me hopeful, at least this time, is anytime a president wins a popular vote and an election is they have the ability to reset and to actually try and build something that is new. And so what I would hope is that this is different from the first Trump administration in which the mandate for Donald Trump is actually carried out competently. Yes, he can do his antics, which got him elected. At this point, we can’t deny it. The McDonald’s thing is hilarious. It’s funny. It is. People love it. People like the podcasting. People like-
Lex Fridman
Garbage truck.
Garbage truck.
Saagar Enjeti
The garbage truck. Yeah, exactly. They like the stunts, and he will always excel and he will continue to do that. There are policy and other things that he can and should do, like the pursuit of no war, like solving the immigration question, and also really figuring out our economy the way that it currently runs and changing it so that the actual American dream is more achievable. And housing is one of the chief problems that we have right now. The real thing is Donald Trump was elected on the backs of the working man. I mean, it’s just true.
The garbage truck. Yeah, exactly. They like the stunts, and he will always excel and he will continue to do that. There are policy and other things that he can and should do, like the pursuit of no war, like solving the immigration question, and also really figuring out our economy the way that it currently runs and changing it so that the actual American dream is more achievable. And housing is one of the chief problems that we have right now. The real thing is Donald Trump was elected on the backs of the working man. I mean, it’s just true.
Households under $100,000 voted for Donald Trump. Maybe they didn’t do so for economic reasons. I think a lot of them did for economic, a lot of them did for immigration, for cultural. But you still owe them something. And I would hope that they could carry something out in that respect that is not a similar continuation and chaotic vibe of the first time where everything felt like it’d explode at any time with staffing, with even his policy or what he cared about or his ability to pursue. And a lot of that does come back to personnel. So I’m concerned in some respects, I’m not thrilled in some respects, I’m happy in some respects, but it remains to be seen how he’s going to do it.
MAGA ideology
Lex Fridman
To the degree it’s possible to see Trumpism and MAGA as a coherent ideology, what do you think are the central pillars of it?
To the degree it’s possible to see Trumpism and MAGA as a coherent ideology, what do you think are the central pillars of it?
Saagar Enjeti
MAGA is a rejection of cultural elitism. That’s what I would say. Cultural elitism though has many different categories. Immigration is one, right? Is that cultural elitism and cultural liberalism has a fundamental belief that immigration in and of itself is a natural good at any and all levels, that all immigrants are replacement level, that there is no difference between them. Cultural elitism in a foreign policy context comes back to a lot of that human rights democracy stuff that I was talking about earlier, which divorces American values from American interests and says that actually American values are American interests. Cultural elitism and liberalism leads to the worship of the post-civil rights era of bureaucracy that I talked about from those two books of DEI or, quote-unquote, woke, and of progressive social ideology. So I would put all those together as ultimately what MAGA is. It is a, “Screw you.”
MAGA is a rejection of cultural elitism. That’s what I would say. Cultural elitism though has many different categories. Immigration is one, right? Is that cultural elitism and cultural liberalism has a fundamental belief that immigration in and of itself is a natural good at any and all levels, that all immigrants are replacement level, that there is no difference between them. Cultural elitism in a foreign policy context comes back to a lot of that human rights democracy stuff that I was talking about earlier, which divorces American values from American interests and says that actually American values are American interests. Cultural elitism and liberalism leads to the worship of the post-civil rights era of bureaucracy that I talked about from those two books of DEI or, quote-unquote, woke, and of progressive social ideology. So I would put all those together as ultimately what MAGA is. It is a, “Screw you.”
I once drove past… It was in rural Nevada, and I was driving and I drove past the biggest sign I’ve ever seen, political sign, to this day. And it was in 2020. It just said, “Trump, fuck your feelings.” And I still believe that is the most coherent MAGA thing I’ve ever seen. Because everyone’s always like, “How can a neocon, and Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK and all these other people, how can they all exist under the same umbrella?” And I’m like, “It’s very simple. All of them have rejected the cultural elite, in their own way, certainly, but they’ve arrived at the same place. It’s an umbrella. And it’s an umbrella fundamentally, which has nothing to do with the status quo and with the currently established cultural elite. That doesn’t mean they’re not elite and they’re not rich in their own regards, that doesn’t mean they don’t disagree, but that’s the one thing that unites the entire party.” And so that’s the way I would put it.
Lex Fridman
Anti-cultural elite, is that synonymous with anti-establishment? So basic distrust of all institutions? Is elitism connected to institutions?
Anti-cultural elite, is that synonymous with anti-establishment? So basic distrust of all institutions? Is elitism connected to institutions?
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, absolutely, because elites are the ones who runs our institutions. That’s said, anti-establishment is really not the right word because there are a lot of left-wingers who are anti-establishment, right? They are against that, but they’re not anti-cultural leftism. And that’s the key distinction between MAGA and left populism. Left populism basically does agree. They agree with basic conceits, like racism is one of the biggest problem facing America. They’re like, “One of the ways that we would fix that is through class-oriented economic programs in order to address that. But we believe in… I don’t know, reparations as a concept. It’s just more about how we arrive there.” Whereas in MAGA, we would say, “No, we actually don’t think that at all. We think we’ve evolved past that and we think that the best way to fix it is actually similar policy prescription, but the mindset matters a lot.” So the real distinction, MAGA and left populism really is on culture.
Yes, absolutely, because elites are the ones who runs our institutions. That’s said, anti-establishment is really not the right word because there are a lot of left-wingers who are anti-establishment, right? They are against that, but they’re not anti-cultural leftism. And that’s the key distinction between MAGA and left populism. Left populism basically does agree. They agree with basic conceits, like racism is one of the biggest problem facing America. They’re like, “One of the ways that we would fix that is through class-oriented economic programs in order to address that. But we believe in… I don’t know, reparations as a concept. It’s just more about how we arrive there.” Whereas in MAGA, we would say, “No, we actually don’t think that at all. We think we’ve evolved past that and we think that the best way to fix it is actually similar policy prescription, but the mindset matters a lot.” So the real distinction, MAGA and left populism really is on culture.
Bernie Sanders
Trans, in particular, orientation about… Actually, immigration may be the biggest one. Because if you look at the history of Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders was a person who railed against open borders and against mass migration for years. There are famous interviews of him on YouTube with Lou Dobbs, who’s one of the hardcore immigration guys, and they agree with each other. And Lou is like, “Bernie’s one of the only guys out there.” Bernie, at the end of the day, he had to succumb to the cultural left, and it’s changing attitudes on mass immigration. There’s some famous clips from 2015 in a Vox interview that he gave where he started… I think he started talking about how open borders is a Koch brothers libertarian concept, right? Because Bernie is basically of a European welfare state tradition. European welfare states are very simply understood. We have high taxes, high services, low rates of immigration. Because we have high taxes and high services, we have a limited pool of people who can experience and take those services.
He used to understand that. He changed a lot of his attitude. Bernie also… I will say, look, he’s a courageous man and a courageous politician. As late as 2017, he actually endorsed a pro-life candidate because he said that that pro-life candidate was pro-worker. And he’s like, “At the end of the day, I care about pro-worker policy.” He took a ton of shit for it, and I don’t think he’s done it since. So the sad part that’s really happened is that a lot of left populist agenda and other has become subsumed in the hysteria around cultural leftism, wokeism, whatever the hell you want to call it. And ultimately, that cultural leftism was the thing that really united the two wings of that party. And that’s really why MAGA is very opposed to that. They’re really not the same, but the left populist can still be anti-establishment. That’s the key.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting to think of the left cultural elite subsuming, consuming Bernie Sanders, the left populist. So you think that’s what happened?
It’s interesting to think of the left cultural elite subsuming, consuming Bernie Sanders, the left populist. So you think that’s what happened?
Saagar Enjeti
That’s what I would say.
That’s what I would say.
Lex Fridman
What do you think happened in 2016 with Bernie? Is there a possible future where he would’ve won? You and Krystal wrote a book on populism in 2020. So from that perspective, just looking at 2016, if he rejected wokeism at that time… By the way, that would be pretty gangster during 2016. Would he have… Because I think Hillary went towards the left more, right? Am I remembering that correctly?
What do you think happened in 2016 with Bernie? Is there a possible future where he would’ve won? You and Krystal wrote a book on populism in 2020. So from that perspective, just looking at 2016, if he rejected wokeism at that time… By the way, that would be pretty gangster during 2016. Would he have… Because I think Hillary went towards the left more, right? Am I remembering that correctly?
Saagar Enjeti
It was a very weird time. So yes and no. It wasn’t full-on BLM-mania like it was in 2020, but the signs were all there. So the Great Awokening was in 2014. I know it’s a ridiculous term. I’m-
It was a very weird time. So yes and no. It wasn’t full-on BLM-mania like it was in 2020, but the signs were all there. So the Great Awokening was in 2014. I know it’s a ridiculous term. I’m-
Lex Fridman
I love it. Please keep saying it because it has a ring to it.
I love it. Please keep saying it because it has a ring to it.
Saagar Enjeti
But just to give the origin, the Great Awakening is about the great religious revival in the United States. So because wokeism is a religion, that’s a common refrain, they were like, “The Great Awokening is a really good term,” so-
But just to give the origin, the Great Awakening is about the great religious revival in the United States. So because wokeism is a religion, that’s a common refrain, they were like, “The Great Awokening is a really good term,” so-
Lex Fridman
Thank you for explaining the joke. Yep.
Thank you for explaining the joke. Yep.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So the Great Awokening is basically when racial attitudes amongst college-educated whites basically flipped on its head. There are a variety of reasons why this happened. I really believe that Ta-Nehisi Coates’s case for reparations in the Atlantic is one of those. It radicalized an entire generation of basically white college-educated women to think completely differently on race. It was during Ferguson, and then it also happened immediately after the Trayvon Martin case. Those two things really set the stage for the eventual BLM takeover of 2020. But fundamentally, what they did is they changed racial attitudes amongst college-educated elites to really think in a race-first construct. And worse is that they were rejected in 2016 at the ballot box by the election of Donald Trump. And in response, they ramped it up because they believed that that was the framework to view the world, that people voted for Trump because he was racist and not for a variety of other reasons that they eventually did.
Yeah. So the Great Awokening is basically when racial attitudes amongst college-educated whites basically flipped on its head. There are a variety of reasons why this happened. I really believe that Ta-Nehisi Coates’s case for reparations in the Atlantic is one of those. It radicalized an entire generation of basically white college-educated women to think completely differently on race. It was during Ferguson, and then it also happened immediately after the Trayvon Martin case. Those two things really set the stage for the eventual BLM takeover of 2020. But fundamentally, what they did is they changed racial attitudes amongst college-educated elites to really think in a race-first construct. And worse is that they were rejected in 2016 at the ballot box by the election of Donald Trump. And in response, they ramped it up because they believed that that was the framework to view the world, that people voted for Trump because he was racist and not for a variety of other reasons that they eventually did.
And so the point around this on question of whether Bernie could have won in 2016, I don’t know. Krystal seems to think so. I’m skeptical. I’m skeptical for a variety of reasons. I think the culture is honestly one of them. One of Trump’s core issues in 2016 was immigration. And Bernie and him did not agree on immigration. And if immigration, even if people did support Bernie Sanders and his vision for working class people, the debates and the understanding about what it would look like, like a healthcare system, which literally would pay for illegal immigrants, I think he would’ve gotten killed on that. But I could be wrong. I will never know what that looked like.
Lex Fridman
Let me reference you from earlier in the conversation with FDR. It’s not the policy. I think if he went more anti-establishment and more populist as opposed to trying to court, trying to be friendly with the DNC-
Let me reference you from earlier in the conversation with FDR. It’s not the policy. I think if he went more anti-establishment and more populist as opposed to trying to court, trying to be friendly with the DNC-
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. I mean, that’s a good counterfactual. Nobody will really know. Look, I have a lot of love for the Bernie 2016 campaign. He has a great ad from 2016 called America. You should watch it. It’s a great ad. That’s another very interesting thing. It’s unapologetically patriotic, and that is not something that you see in a lot of left-wing circles these days. So he understood politics at a base level that a lot of people did not. But Bernie himself, and then a lot of the Bernie movement was basically crushed by the elite Democratic Party for a variety of reasons. They hated them. They attacked Joe Rogan for even having him on and for giving him a platform. That was ridiculous.
Yeah. I mean, that’s a good counterfactual. Nobody will really know. Look, I have a lot of love for the Bernie 2016 campaign. He has a great ad from 2016 called America. You should watch it. It’s a great ad. That’s another very interesting thing. It’s unapologetically patriotic, and that is not something that you see in a lot of left-wing circles these days. So he understood politics at a base level that a lot of people did not. But Bernie himself, and then a lot of the Bernie movement was basically crushed by the elite Democratic Party for a variety of reasons. They hated them. They attacked Joe Rogan for even having him on and for giving him a platform. That was ridiculous.
Obviously, it backfired in their face, which is really funny. But there were a million examples like that when they attacked Bernie for endorsing a pro-life politician. He never did it again. They attacked Bernie for having Bernie Bros. People online, the bros who were [inaudible 01:56:40] Bernie, and it was his fault. His supporters would say nasty things about Elizabeth Warren, and he would defend straight himself and be like, “Yes, I’m sorry. Please, my bros,” he was like, “Stop that.”
Lex Fridman
I think that his biggest problem is he never went full Trump. He kept saying sorry.
I think that his biggest problem is he never went full Trump. He kept saying sorry.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I agree. I totally agree. Actually, in 2020, I did a ton of analysis on this at the time. He would always do stuff like, “Joe Biden, my friend,” and it’s like, “No, he’s not your friend. He stands for everything that you disagree with. Everything.” He’d be like, “Yeah, he’s a nice guy, but he’s not my friend,” but he would always be like, “Joe and I are great friends, but we have a small disagreement on this.” But like you just said, in terms of going full Trump, they wanted to see Trump up there humiliating all of the GOP politicians that they didn’t trust anymore. That’s what people really wanted. But the other side of this is that the Democratic base in 2020 was very different than 2016. Because by 2020, they full-on had TDS, and they were basically like, “We need to defeat Trump at all costs. We don’t give a shit what your name is, Bernie, Biden, whatever. Whichever of you is going to be at best defeat Trump, you get the knob.”
Yeah, I agree. I totally agree. Actually, in 2020, I did a ton of analysis on this at the time. He would always do stuff like, “Joe Biden, my friend,” and it’s like, “No, he’s not your friend. He stands for everything that you disagree with. Everything.” He’d be like, “Yeah, he’s a nice guy, but he’s not my friend,” but he would always be like, “Joe and I are great friends, but we have a small disagreement on this.” But like you just said, in terms of going full Trump, they wanted to see Trump up there humiliating all of the GOP politicians that they didn’t trust anymore. That’s what people really wanted. But the other side of this is that the Democratic base in 2020 was very different than 2016. Because by 2020, they full-on had TDS, and they were basically like, “We need to defeat Trump at all costs. We don’t give a shit what your name is, Bernie, Biden, whatever. Whichever of you is going to be at best defeat Trump, you get the knob.”
2016 is different because they didn’t full-on have that love and necessity of winning. By the way, this is a strategic advantage that the Democrats have. Democrats just care about winning. The current base of the party, all they want to do is win. Republican base? They don’t give a shit about winning. They just love Trump. So it’s nice to win. But one of those where they will express their id for what they really want. Now, it’s worked out for them because it turns out, that’s a very palpable political force. But one of the reasons why you won’t see me up here doing James Carville 40 more years is there is a law of something called thermostatic public opinion, where the thermostat, it changes a lot whenever you actually… So when you have a left-wing president in power, the country goes right. When you have a right-wing president in power, the country goes left.
Amazing. Right? You can actually look at a graph of economic attitudes from the two months where Joe Biden became president after Donald Trump. So Republicans, Trump was president in the last year in office, the economy’s great. Two months later, the economy is horrible. That is a perfect example of thermostatic opinion. And I’m not counting these Democrats out. 2004, George W. Bush wins the popular vote. He has a historic mandate to continue in Iraq. By ’06, he’s toasted. We have a massive midterm election. And by ’08, we’re writing books about 40 more years, and how there’s never going to be a Republican in the office ever again. So things can change a lot in a very short period of time.
Obama vs Trump
Lex Fridman
I think also for me, personally, maybe I’m deluded, the great man view of history, I think some of it is in programming circles, the term skills issue. I think some of it just has to do how good you are, how charismatic you are, how good you are as a politician. I maybe disagree with this. I’d love to see what you think. If you were allowed to run for many terms, I think Obama would just keep winning. He would win 2016, he would win 2020, he would win this year, 2024.
I think also for me, personally, maybe I’m deluded, the great man view of history, I think some of it is in programming circles, the term skills issue. I think some of it just has to do how good you are, how charismatic you are, how good you are as a politician. I maybe disagree with this. I’d love to see what you think. If you were allowed to run for many terms, I think Obama would just keep winning. He would win 2016, he would win 2020, he would win this year, 2024.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s possible. But I would flip it on you, and I would say Obama would never be elected if there were no term limits, because Bill Clinton would’ve still been president.
It’s possible. But I would flip it on you, and I would say Obama would never be elected if there were no term limits, because Bill Clinton would’ve still been president.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So-
Yeah. So-
Lex Fridman
Well, those two, right? That’s two examples of… Exactly. Extremely skilled politicians and somehow can appear like populists.
Well, those two, right? That’s two examples of… Exactly. Extremely skilled politicians and somehow can appear like populists.
Saagar Enjeti
Man, Bill Clinton was a force in his time, and it’s honestly sad what’s happened to him. I was actually just talking with a friend the other day. I’m like, “I don’t think that presidents should become president when they’re young because they live to see themselves become irrelevant,” and that must be really painful because I know what it takes to get there. Imagine being Clinton, I mean, your entire legacy was destroyed with Hillary Clinton in 2016. And then imagine being Obama, who, in 2016, you could argue it’s a one-off and say that Trump is just… Oh, Hillary was a bad candidate, but Michelle and Barack Obama went so hard for Kamala Harris, and they just got blown out in the popular vote. I mean, the Obama era officially ended with Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency in 2024, and that was a 20-year period where Obama was one of the most popular central figures in American politics. But I want to return to what you’re saying because it is important, and by the way, I do not support term limits on American presidents.
Man, Bill Clinton was a force in his time, and it’s honestly sad what’s happened to him. I was actually just talking with a friend the other day. I’m like, “I don’t think that presidents should become president when they’re young because they live to see themselves become irrelevant,” and that must be really painful because I know what it takes to get there. Imagine being Clinton, I mean, your entire legacy was destroyed with Hillary Clinton in 2016. And then imagine being Obama, who, in 2016, you could argue it’s a one-off and say that Trump is just… Oh, Hillary was a bad candidate, but Michelle and Barack Obama went so hard for Kamala Harris, and they just got blown out in the popular vote. I mean, the Obama era officially ended with Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency in 2024, and that was a 20-year period where Obama was one of the most popular central figures in American politics. But I want to return to what you’re saying because it is important, and by the way, I do not support term limits on American presidents.
Lex Fridman
Are you a fascist or-
Are you a fascist or-
Saagar Enjeti
Well, that would imply that I don’t believe in democracy. I actually do believe in democracy because I think the people, if they love their president, should be able to reelect him. I think FDR was amazing. I think that the term limit change was basically what happened is that Republicans and a lot of elite Democrats always wanted to speak against FDR, but he was a god, so they couldn’t. So they waited until he died. And then after he died, they were like, “Yeah, this whole third, fourth term, that can never happen again.” And America didn’t really think that hard about it. They were like, “Yeah, okay, whatever.” But, I mean, it had immense consequences for American history. Clinton is the perfect example. I mean, Bill Clinton left office, even despite the Lewinsky bullshit, he had a 60% approval rating. Okay? No way George W. Bush gets elected. Impossible. Clinton would’ve blown his ass out.
Well, that would imply that I don’t believe in democracy. I actually do believe in democracy because I think the people, if they love their president, should be able to reelect him. I think FDR was amazing. I think that the term limit change was basically what happened is that Republicans and a lot of elite Democrats always wanted to speak against FDR, but he was a god, so they couldn’t. So they waited until he died. And then after he died, they were like, “Yeah, this whole third, fourth term, that can never happen again.” And America didn’t really think that hard about it. They were like, “Yeah, okay, whatever.” But, I mean, it had immense consequences for American history. Clinton is the perfect example. I mean, Bill Clinton left office, even despite the Lewinsky bullshit, he had a 60% approval rating. Okay? No way George W. Bush gets elected. Impossible. Clinton would’ve blown his ass out.
And imagine the consequences of that. We would have no Iraq… I mean, I’m not saying he was a great man. We probably still would’ve had the financial crisis, and there’s still a lot of bad stuff that would’ve happened. But he was a popular dude, and I wouldn’t say he had the best judgment at times presidentially… Definitely not personally, but presidentially. But I’m pretty confident we would’ve not gone into the Iraq war. And so that’s where it really cost us. If you’re left wing and you’re talking about Obama, yeah, I think Obama probably would’ve won in 2016. Although it’s a counterfactual, because Obama was never challenged in the same way that MAGA was able to, to the liberal consensus. Romney really ran this awful campaign, honestly, about cutting spending. It was very traditional Republican. It was deeply unpopular. The autopsy of that election was we actually need to be more pro-immigration. That literally was the autopsy. But Trump understood the assignment.
There are two people who I so deeply respect for their political bets. Peter Thiel and Donald Trump. So one of the books that I recommended called The Unwinding by George Packer, he actually talks about Peter Thiel there. This is in 2013. And Thiel talks about, he was like, “Whoever runs for office next, they don’t need to run on an optimistic message. They need to run on a message that everything is fucked up and that we need to… And if you think about, that’s why Thiel’s endorsement of Trump with the American carnage message is… I mean, it was shocking at the time, but he had that fundamental insight that that’s what the American people wanted. Trump too comes out of an election in 2012 where the literal GOP autopsy, the report produced by the party, says, “We need to be pro-mass immigration.” What happens? Immediately after 2012, they start to go for mass immigrant… Basically, they go for these amnesty plans, the so-called Gang of Eight plan, Marco Rubio, and all of this in 2013, it falls apart, but Republicans get punished by their base in [inaudible 02:04:04]-
Saagar Enjeti
Republicans get punished by their base in 2014. So Eric Cantor, who was the House Majority Leader, the number two Republican, spent more on stake in his campaign than his primary opponent who successfully defeated him, a guy named Dave Brat. Dave Brat kicked his ass on the issue of immigration and said that Eric Cantor is pro-amnesty. All of the forces were there.
Republicans get punished by their base in 2014. So Eric Cantor, who was the House Majority Leader, the number two Republican, spent more on stake in his campaign than his primary opponent who successfully defeated him, a guy named Dave Brat. Dave Brat kicked his ass on the issue of immigration and said that Eric Cantor is pro-amnesty. All of the forces were there.
Then in 2015, Trump comes down the escalator, and he gives the message on immigration that the GOP base has been roaring and wanting to hear now but that nobody wanted to listen to them. That was his fundamental insight. That bet was a colossal and a Titanic political bet at a time when all political ideology and thought process would’ve said that you should come out on the other side, which is where Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and all these other guys were effectively there in varying different ways, like they were hawkish or whatever. But Trump just had such a monopoly on that as an idea.
That’s why he wins the 2016 primary. Then paired with immigration, a hard line position on immigration, is this American carnage idea that actually everything is wrong. The American dream has gone. “We will stop this American carnage.” I think American Carnage is one of the most important inaugural speeches ever given in American history. Put it up against every single other speech, there’s nothing else like it. But that was what the country wanted at the time.
That’s what great politicians are able to do, is they’re able to suss something out. That’s also why Peter Thiel is who he is because he saw that in 2000. Imagine what it takes to come out of the 2012 election and to be honestly totally contrarian to the entire national mood and this entire theory of Obama-esque star politics and say, “No, you need somebody who runs on the opposite of that to win.”
Lex Fridman
Well, we’ll never know. I love this kind of Mike Tyson versus Muhammad Ali. I still think I would’ve loved to see Obama versus Trump.
Well, we’ll never know. I love this kind of Mike Tyson versus Muhammad Ali. I still think I would’ve loved to see Obama versus Trump.
Saagar Enjeti
Me too. I agree.
Me too. I agree.
Lex Fridman
First of all, Obama versus Trump in 2008, Obama wins hands down.
First of all, Obama versus Trump in 2008, Obama wins hands down.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, yes, definitely.
Well, yes, definitely.
Lex Fridman
I love how this is a boxing talk.
I love how this is a boxing talk.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Now, 2016, Obama has Iraq and Afghanistan.
Now, 2016, Obama has Iraq and Afghanistan.
Saagar Enjeti
He’s vulnerable though. I’ll tell you why: DACA. That’s what nobody ever talks about in the Obama-Trump thing. Don’t forget, Obama takes his 2012 victory, basically says, “Oh, the GOP even now agrees with me on immigration,” and then he does DACA and he legalizes X million number of illegal immigrants who are here who were brought here as children. That also fundamentally changed the immigration consensus on the Republican side because they’re like, “Wait, holy shit. You can just do that? Because we don’t agree with that at all.” That really ignited the base as well. So I’m not sure.
He’s vulnerable though. I’ll tell you why: DACA. That’s what nobody ever talks about in the Obama-Trump thing. Don’t forget, Obama takes his 2012 victory, basically says, “Oh, the GOP even now agrees with me on immigration,” and then he does DACA and he legalizes X million number of illegal immigrants who are here who were brought here as children. That also fundamentally changed the immigration consensus on the Republican side because they’re like, “Wait, holy shit. You can just do that? Because we don’t agree with that at all.” That really ignited the base as well. So I’m not sure.
A moment I think about a lot with Trump and just being able to unleash the rage of the Republican base is in the 2012 debate, Candy Crowley was the moderator with Mitt Romney, and she fact-checked him famously. This was when fact checking was shocking in a presidential debate. She said something about Benghazi, and she was like, “No, he did say that.” She corrected Romney on behalf of Obama. To this day, it’s questionable whether she was even right. Romney was just like, “Oh, he did? Okay.” Trump would’ve been like, “Excuse me. Excuse me. Look at this woman.” He would’ve gone off.
I think about that moment because that’s what the Republican base wanted to hear. But also, it turns out, America had a lot of festering feelings about the mainstream media that it needed unleashed, and Trump was just this incredible vector to just blow up this system, which, if you asked me about optimism, that’s the thing I’m most optimistic about.
Lex Fridman
But don’t you think Obama had a good sense in how to turn it on, how to be anti-establishment correctly?
But don’t you think Obama had a good sense in how to turn it on, how to be anti-establishment correctly?
Saagar Enjeti
I will not deny that he’s one of the most talented politicians literally to ever play the game. He is a just unbelievable rhetorical talent. Look, as a counterfactual, would he have been more talented than Hillary? Yeah, no question in terms of anybody would’ve been for that one. But at the same time, all the signs were there. All the signs for the Trump victory and for the backlash against Obama-ism kind of as a political project, it all existed. Like I just laid the tea leaves out there, from 2012 to 2015, in retrospect, it’s the most predictable thing in the world that Donald Trump would get elected, but it was crazy in the moment. I got to live through that, which was really fun, like professionally.
I will not deny that he’s one of the most talented politicians literally to ever play the game. He is a just unbelievable rhetorical talent. Look, as a counterfactual, would he have been more talented than Hillary? Yeah, no question in terms of anybody would’ve been for that one. But at the same time, all the signs were there. All the signs for the Trump victory and for the backlash against Obama-ism kind of as a political project, it all existed. Like I just laid the tea leaves out there, from 2012 to 2015, in retrospect, it’s the most predictable thing in the world that Donald Trump would get elected, but it was crazy in the moment. I got to live through that, which was really fun, like professionally.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s unfortunate that he kind of let Kamala Harris borrow his reputation.
I think it’s unfortunate that he kind of let Kamala Harris borrow his reputation.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s like, “You know better, dude. You know. You defeated these people, the Clinton machine. You destroyed them.” And it was awesome in ’08.
It’s like, “You know better, dude. You know. You defeated these people, the Clinton machine. You destroyed them.” And it was awesome in ’08.
Lex Fridman
What is that? He’s so much bigger and better than the machine.
What is that? He’s so much bigger and better than the machine.
Saagar Enjeti
I don’t get it.
I don’t get it.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting, right?
It’s interesting, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. It’s so weird though. I just think-
Yeah. It’s so weird though. I just think-
Lex Fridman
I think this was a wake-up call. 2024 was a wake-up call. The DNC machine doesn’t work.
I think this was a wake-up call. 2024 was a wake-up call. The DNC machine doesn’t work.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
There needs to be new blood, new Obama-like candidates.
There needs to be new blood, new Obama-like candidates.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I’m glad you brought that up because that’s important, too, in terms of the process and the way that things currently stand. The DNC actually rigged its entire primary system under Biden not to the benefit of Obama. For example, you know how they moved away from the Iowa caucuses and they actually moved some other primaries and moved the calendar to reward traditional states that vote much more in line with the democratic establishment. The story of Barack Obama is one that not many… actually, probably a lot of young people today don’t even remember how it happened.
Well, I’m glad you brought that up because that’s important, too, in terms of the process and the way that things currently stand. The DNC actually rigged its entire primary system under Biden not to the benefit of Obama. For example, you know how they moved away from the Iowa caucuses and they actually moved some other primaries and moved the calendar to reward traditional states that vote much more in line with the democratic establishment. The story of Barack Obama is one that not many… actually, probably a lot of young people today don’t even remember how it happened.
In 2008, Obama was the underdog. Actually, here’s the critical thing. Obama was losing with Black people. Why? Black Democrats simply did not believe that white people were vote for a Black guy. So Barack Obama goes to this white state, Iowa, all in on the Iowa caucuses, and shocks the world by winning the Iowa caucuses. Overnight, there is a shift in public amongst the Black population in South Carolina that says, “Oh, shit, he actually could win,” and he comes out, and he wins South Carolina. That’s basically was the death knell for the Hillary Clinton campaign. The problem is by moving South Carolina up and by making it first along with other more pro-establishment friendly places, what do we do? We make it so that Barack Obama can never happen again. We make it so that an older base of Democratic Party voters who listens to the elites can never have their assumptions challenged. That’s one of the worst things Joe Biden did. I talked about his arrogance. He was so arrogant, he changed the freaking primary system. He was so arrogant, he refused to do a debate. I mean, imagine history. How lucky are we honestly that Joe Biden agreed to do that debate with Donald Trump early? Again, that was his arrogance. I think we’re so lucky for it because if we hadn’t gotten… We got to understand as a country how cooked he was and how fake everything was behind the scenes in front of all of our eyes. They tried for three straight years to make sure that that would never happen. It’s still such a crime, honestly, against the American people.
Lex Fridman
I’ve been thinking about who I want to talk to for three hours. That’s why I bring up Obama because he’s probably the number one person on the left I would like to hear analyze what happened in this election and what’s happened to the United States of America over the past 20 plus years. I can’t imagine anybody else.
I’ve been thinking about who I want to talk to for three hours. That’s why I bring up Obama because he’s probably the number one person on the left I would like to hear analyze what happened in this election and what’s happened to the United States of America over the past 20 plus years. I can’t imagine anybody else.
Saagar Enjeti
Look, if anybody could do it, it’d be you. But there are layers upon layers with that man. I would love to actually sit and talk with him, for real.
Look, if anybody could do it, it’d be you. But there are layers upon layers with that man. I would love to actually sit and talk with him, for real.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s fair to say that we talked about the great man view of history. I think you have a psychopath view of history where all great leaders are for sure psychopaths.
I think it’s fair to say that we talked about the great man view of history. I think you have a psychopath view of history where all great leaders are for sure psychopaths.
Saagar Enjeti
Not for sure. There are many who are good people. Harry Truman was-
Not for sure. There are many who are good people. Harry Truman was-
Lex Fridman
You’re like, some of them [inaudible 02:11:52].
You’re like, some of them [inaudible 02:11:52].
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, some-
Yeah, some-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, Harry Truman, Harry Truman.
Yeah, Harry Truman, Harry Truman.
Saagar Enjeti
Some, I assume, are good people. To be fair though, most of the good ones are accidents, like Harry Truman. He never would’ve gotten himself elected. He was a great dude.
Some, I assume, are good people. To be fair though, most of the good ones are accidents, like Harry Truman. He never would’ve gotten himself elected. He was a great dude.
Lex Fridman
How do you know he was a great dude?
How do you know he was a great dude?
Saagar Enjeti
David McCullough book, I highly recommended it. Everybody should read it. Truman loved his wife. I think that’s really awesome. I love when politicians love their wife. It’s so rare. He adored his wife, he adored his daughter, spent time with them. He made family life a priority. He had really good small-town judgment that he would apply to foreign affairs. He was just a very well-considered, very stand-up man. I so appreciate that about him.
David McCullough book, I highly recommended it. Everybody should read it. Truman loved his wife. I think that’s really awesome. I love when politicians love their wife. It’s so rare. He adored his wife, he adored his daughter, spent time with them. He made family life a priority. He had really good small-town judgment that he would apply to foreign affairs. He was just a very well-considered, very stand-up man. I so appreciate that about him.
Another one is John Adams. I love and revere John Adams. He’s my favorite Founding Father. Him and John Quincy, they don’t get nearly enough of their due. They were some of the most intelligent, well-considered. They were family men. The love and the relationship between John and Abigail Adams is literally legendary. I think it’s amazing, especially in the context of the 1700s, the way that he would take her counsel into conversations and her own ability. She would sit there and go toe-to-toe as much with Thomas Jefferson. There are some who are great, who are really, really good presidents, who have good judgment and who are really good people and really think deeply about the world and have really cool personal lives. But also the vast majority of them… I would say especially in the modern era and where the price of the presidency extracts everything that you have, you have to be willing to give everything. That’s not a price that most people want to pay.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible that some of the people who you think are sociopaths in politics are in fact really good people, and some of the people you think are good, like Truman and Adams, are actually sociopaths?
Is it possible that some of the people who you think are sociopaths in politics are in fact really good people, and some of the people you think are good, like Truman and Adams, are actually sociopaths?
Saagar Enjeti
Definitely. I could just be reading the wrong books, right?
Definitely. I could just be reading the wrong books, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s right. It sounds like you just read some really compelling biographies.
Yeah, that’s right. It sounds like you just read some really compelling biographies.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, to be fair, I don’t base this on one book. I read a lot of them, and I’ll get… For example, I’ve read books about LBJ, you wouldn’t know any of his foibles. But then you find out that they’re written by his friend or it was written by… I think you read [inaudible 02:14:08].
Well, to be fair, I don’t base this on one book. I read a lot of them, and I’ll get… For example, I’ve read books about LBJ, you wouldn’t know any of his foibles. But then you find out that they’re written by his friend or it was written by… I think you read [inaudible 02:14:08].
Lex Fridman
I think you read the truth. I really worry about this general, especially now, the anti-establishment sense that every politician must be a sociopath. The reason I worry about that is it feels true.
I think you read the truth. I really worry about this general, especially now, the anti-establishment sense that every politician must be a sociopath. The reason I worry about that is it feels true.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you can fall into this bubble of beliefs where every politician is a sociopath, and because of that-
So you can fall into this bubble of beliefs where every politician is a sociopath, and because of that-
Saagar Enjeti
It can be a self-reinforcing [inaudible 02:14:38].
It can be a self-reinforcing [inaudible 02:14:38].
Lex Fridman
… it can be a self-reinforcing mechanism.
… it can be a self-reinforcing mechanism.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I understand what you’re saying. I agree, by the way. We do need to dramatically change it. But the problem is that people vote with their eyeballs and with their interests, and people love to dissect people’s personal lives. One of the reasons why you were probably more likely in the pre-modern era to get, quote/unquote, good people is they were not subject to the level of scrutiny and to the insanity of the process that you are currently. Like I just said about… Theoretically, you could run for president and you would just get your nomination at the convention. It’s only two months to Election Day. That’s not so bad. But you run for president today, you got your ass on the road for two years and then two years before that. Then you have to run the damn government. So the price is so extraordinarily high.
Yeah, I understand what you’re saying. I agree, by the way. We do need to dramatically change it. But the problem is that people vote with their eyeballs and with their interests, and people love to dissect people’s personal lives. One of the reasons why you were probably more likely in the pre-modern era to get, quote/unquote, good people is they were not subject to the level of scrutiny and to the insanity of the process that you are currently. Like I just said about… Theoretically, you could run for president and you would just get your nomination at the convention. It’s only two months to Election Day. That’s not so bad. But you run for president today, you got your ass on the road for two years and then two years before that. Then you have to run the damn government. So the price is so extraordinarily high.
I also think that, oh, God, just Washington as a system, it will burn you. It will extract absolutely everything that you can give it. At the end of the day, everyone always talks about this, it’s hilarious, how Trump is the only president not to age in office. I actually think it’s crazy when you look at the photos of how he actually looks better today than he did whenever he went into the office. That’s amazing, and it actually says a lot about how his mind works. I think Trump is pure id. Having observed him a little bit, both at the White House and having interviewed him, it’s calculating, but it’s also pure id, which is very interesting. The ones who are the thinkers, guys like Obama and others who are really in their heads, it’s a nightmare. It’s a nightmare. Apparently, Obama would only sleep four hours a night.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, add some empathy on top of that, it’s just going to destroy you.
Yeah, add some empathy on top of that, it’s just going to destroy you.
Saagar Enjeti
It will kill you, man.
It will kill you, man.
Nancy Pelosi
Lex Fridman
All right, speaking about the dirty game of politics, several people, different people told me that of everyone they have ever met in politics, Nancy Pelosi is the best at attaining and wielding political power. Is there any truth to that?
All right, speaking about the dirty game of politics, several people, different people told me that of everyone they have ever met in politics, Nancy Pelosi is the best at attaining and wielding political power. Is there any truth to that?
Saagar Enjeti
In the modern era, yeah, I think that’s fair in the last 25 years, definitely. Let’s think about it. Number one is longevity. She’s had the ability to control the caucus for a long period of time, so that’s impressive. Because as I just laid out with Clinton, Obama, these figures come and they go, but over a 25-almost-year period, you’ve been at the very top and the center of American politics.
In the modern era, yeah, I think that’s fair in the last 25 years, definitely. Let’s think about it. Number one is longevity. She’s had the ability to control the caucus for a long period of time, so that’s impressive. Because as I just laid out with Clinton, Obama, these figures come and they go, but over a 25-almost-year period, you’ve been at the very top and the center of American politics.
The other case would be is that in this modern era has been defined by access to money. She’s one of the greatest fundraisers in Democratic Party history. Again, consistently, Obama, Kamala, all those people come and go. But she’s always had a very central understanding of the ability to fundraise, to cultivate good relationships with Democratic Party elites all across the country, use that money and dole it out to her caucus.
She also was really good at making sure that legislation that came to the floor actually had the votes to do so. She ran an extremely well-ordered process in the House of Representatives, one in which you were able to reconcile problems within her office. It didn’t usually go public. Then it would make it to the floor, and it would pass so that there would be no general media frenzy and Democrats in disarray or any of that. Put that on display with the Republicans, and we’ve had multiple Speakers all resign or get fired in a 16-year period. That’s pretty remarkable. Basically, ever since John Boehner decided to leave in, what was it, 2012? I forget the exact year. My point is that if you compare her record to the longevity on the Republican side, it is astounding.
The other interesting thing is that she also has pulled off one of the real tests of political power is, can you rule even when you don’t have the title anymore? She gave up the leader position to Hakeem Jeffries, but everybody knows she pulled Joe Biden out of the race. That’s pretty interesting. She’s technically just a back-bencher, a nobody member of Congress, but we all know that’s bullshit. So that’s actually a very important case of political power is, can you rule without the title? If you can, then you truly are powerful. So I would make a good case for her, yeah. She’s done a lot of remarkable stuff for her party.
I will say they played Trump like a fiddle, man. Last time around, they were able to. They really got him. One of the craziest elements that I covered was Trump basically threatened to shut down the government and actually did shut down the government for a period of time over a dispute over border wall funding. Pelosi and Schumer, despite genuine mass hysteria in the Democratic Party with even some people who were willing to try and to strike a deal, never wavered and actually basically won and forced Trump to back down. Not a lot of MAGA people want to admit it, but that was honestly really embarrassing for the Trump administration at that time. The amount of discipline that it took for her, and Chuck to a lesser extent, but for the two of them to pull that off, it was honestly impressive that they were able to do that, even when the president has so much political power. It literally shut down the government over it.
Kamala Harris
Lex Fridman
Speaking of fundraising, Kamala raised $1 billion-
Speaking of fundraising, Kamala raised $1 billion-
Saagar Enjeti
Insane.
Insane.
Lex Fridman
… but I guess the conclusion is she spent it poorly. How would you spend it?
… but I guess the conclusion is she spent it poorly. How would you spend it?
Saagar Enjeti
I don’t think money matters that much. I think Donald Trump has proven to us twice that you can win an underdog campaign through earned media. And I don’t think that paid advertisement moves the needle that much. Now, notice, I didn’t say it doesn’t matter. But am I buying $425,000-a-day spots on the Vegas Sphere? No. We’re not doing that. As people who do this for a living, how do you even spend $100,000 to build a set for one interview?
I don’t think money matters that much. I think Donald Trump has proven to us twice that you can win an underdog campaign through earned media. And I don’t think that paid advertisement moves the needle that much. Now, notice, I didn’t say it doesn’t matter. But am I buying $425,000-a-day spots on the Vegas Sphere? No. We’re not doing that. As people who do this for a living, how do you even spend $100,000 to build a set for one interview?
Lex Fridman
Is this the Call Her Daddy?
Is this the Call Her Daddy?
Saagar Enjeti
The Call Her Daddy thing.
The Call Her Daddy thing.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Saagar Enjeti
How’s that possible? Think about the dollar-per-hour cost. That’s like running a jet airplane in terms of what they did, [inaudible 02:20:24] Kamala Harris thing.
How’s that possible? Think about the dollar-per-hour cost. That’s like running a jet airplane in terms of what they did, [inaudible 02:20:24] Kamala Harris thing.
Lex Fridman
You know what I want to note behind the scenes, and I’m not good with this, I get really frustrated and I shouldn’t, but dealing with PR and comms people can sometimes break my soul.
You know what I want to note behind the scenes, and I’m not good with this, I get really frustrated and I shouldn’t, but dealing with PR and comms people can sometimes break my soul.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s maddening. “Can we not talk about this? We need to pull them at 2:12 p.m.” You’re like, “But that’s only 30 minutes.” It’s like, yeah.
It’s maddening. “Can we not talk about this? We need to pull them at 2:12 p.m.” You’re like, “But that’s only 30 minutes.” It’s like, yeah.
Lex Fridman
That, but there’s stuff like where to put the camera. It’s not that I don’t-
That, but there’s stuff like where to put the camera. It’s not that I don’t-
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Hypothetically, I don’t even disagree with any of the suggestions, but it’s like-
Hypothetically, I don’t even disagree with any of the suggestions, but it’s like-
Saagar Enjeti
The micromanagement.
The micromanagement.
Lex Fridman
… just the micromanagement and the politeness, but the fake politeness. It just makes me feel like, I think, “What would Kubrick do?” Would he murder all of them right now?
… just the micromanagement and the politeness, but the fake politeness. It just makes me feel like, I think, “What would Kubrick do?” Would he murder all of them right now?
Saagar Enjeti
He would just ban them after he became Stanley Kubrick, but he dealt with it for a while. By the way, I just went on a Kubrick binge. Man, he was awesome.
He would just ban them after he became Stanley Kubrick, but he dealt with it for a while. By the way, I just went on a Kubrick binge. Man, he was awesome.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
I watched that World War I movie of his, the one from the ’50s. That is such an underrated film. I feel like people don’t… Whatever. We’ll get past it.
I watched that World War I movie of his, the one from the ’50s. That is such an underrated film. I feel like people don’t… Whatever. We’ll get past it.
Lex Fridman
I guess she paid for-
I guess she paid for-
Saagar Enjeti
A hundred grand, bro.
A hundred grand, bro.
Lex Fridman
… and the Oprah thing. She paid for the interviews?
… and the Oprah thing. She paid for the interviews?
Saagar Enjeti
That’s another one. I do this for a living. As you can tell, I’m a very cynical person. I did not even know that celebrities got paid for their endorsements. I could never have imagined a universe where Oprah Winfrey has paid $1 million to endorse Kamala Harris. I’m like, “First of all, you’re a billionaire.” Second, “I thought you’d do this because you believe.”
That’s another one. I do this for a living. As you can tell, I’m a very cynical person. I did not even know that celebrities got paid for their endorsements. I could never have imagined a universe where Oprah Winfrey has paid $1 million to endorse Kamala Harris. I’m like, “First of all, you’re a billionaire.” Second, “I thought you’d do this because you believe.”
Lex Fridman
No, to be fair, I think the million just helps do the thing you would like to do. It’s a nudge. Because I don’t think any celebrity would endorse-
No, to be fair, I think the million just helps do the thing you would like to do. It’s a nudge. Because I don’t think any celebrity would endorse-
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah, they’re not doing it because of the money. You should just do it for free. I can’t even believe that you’re doing this for money. The fact, what was it, Alanis Morissette, they had to cut her because they didn’t have the funds to pay her. I’m like, “First of all, if you believe, you should just play for free.” But second, again, as a person who is deeply cynical, I still am genuinely shook that we are paying celebrities for their endorsement.
Yeah, yeah, they’re not doing it because of the money. You should just do it for free. I can’t even believe that you’re doing this for money. The fact, what was it, Alanis Morissette, they had to cut her because they didn’t have the funds to pay her. I’m like, “First of all, if you believe, you should just play for free.” But second, again, as a person who is deeply cynical, I still am genuinely shook that we are paying celebrities for their endorsement.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s really fucked up.
Yeah, it’s really fucked up.
Saagar Enjeti
That’s insane.
That’s insane.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think people on the left who are actually in the political arena are afraid of doing anything longer than an hour?
Why do you think people on the left who are actually in the political arena are afraid of doing anything longer than an hour?
Saagar Enjeti
That’s a great question.
That’s a great question.
Lex Fridman
Let me just say, probably most of the people I’ve talked to on this podcast are left wing or have been for a long time. They just don’t out and say it. Most scientists are left wing. Most vaguely political people are left wing that I’ve talked to. But the closer you get to the actual political arena, and I’ve tried really hard, they just, “Nope.” I had a bunch of people, the highest profile people say 15 minutes, 20 minutes. I say, “Nope.”
Let me just say, probably most of the people I’ve talked to on this podcast are left wing or have been for a long time. They just don’t out and say it. Most scientists are left wing. Most vaguely political people are left wing that I’ve talked to. But the closer you get to the actual political arena, and I’ve tried really hard, they just, “Nope.” I had a bunch of people, the highest profile people say 15 minutes, 20 minutes. I say, “Nope.”
Saagar Enjeti
I’m used to that, so welcome.
I’m used to that, so welcome.
Lex Fridman
I just can’t imagine a conversation with Kamala or with Joe Biden or AOC-
I just can’t imagine a conversation with Kamala or with Joe Biden or AOC-
Saagar Enjeti
Obama.
Obama.
Lex Fridman
… or Obama that’s of any quality at all that shows any kind of humanity of the person, the genius of the person, the interesting nuance of the person in 30 minutes. I don’t know. Maybe there’s people that are extremely skilled that can do that. You just can’t.
… or Obama that’s of any quality at all that shows any kind of humanity of the person, the genius of the person, the interesting nuance of the person in 30 minutes. I don’t know. Maybe there’s people that are extremely skilled that can do that. You just can’t.
Saagar Enjeti
You should be optimistic because a huge narrative out of this election is that the Democrats massively fucked up by not coming on this show or a Rogan show. Fundamentally, number one, that’s going to change dramatically-
You should be optimistic because a huge narrative out of this election is that the Democrats massively fucked up by not coming on this show or a Rogan show. Fundamentally, number one, that’s going to change dramatically-
Lex Fridman
I hope so.
I hope so.
Saagar Enjeti
… so be optimistic and keep pushing. Two, this is a good segue actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about, I know a lot of people listening to this show who are in tech and may have some influence on the admin, this is something I want people to take really seriously, is I was a White House correspondent for The Daily Caller, it’s a conservative outlet, in Washington during the Trump years. The most important thing I learned from that was that under the White House Correspondents’ Association, the way that the media cartel has everything set up for access for press to the President is fundamentally broken, anti-American, and bad for actual democracy. So let me lay this out at a very mechanical level because nobody knows this. I was a former White House Correspondents’ Association member, so anybody who says I’m full of shit, I was there.
… so be optimistic and keep pushing. Two, this is a good segue actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about, I know a lot of people listening to this show who are in tech and may have some influence on the admin, this is something I want people to take really seriously, is I was a White House correspondent for The Daily Caller, it’s a conservative outlet, in Washington during the Trump years. The most important thing I learned from that was that under the White House Correspondents’ Association, the way that the media cartel has everything set up for access for press to the President is fundamentally broken, anti-American, and bad for actual democracy. So let me lay this out at a very mechanical level because nobody knows this. I was a former White House Correspondents’ Association member, so anybody who says I’m full of shit, I was there.
For example, number one, all the seats in the Briefing Room, those seats are assigned by the White House Correspondents’ Association, not by the White House itself. The White House Correspondents’ Association requires you to apply for a seat. That adjudication process can take literally years for bylaws, elections, and all these things to do. This means that they can slow roll the entrance of new media online outlets who are allowed into the room. The reason it really matters not having a seat is if you don’t have a seat, you have to get there early and stand in the wings, like I used to, and raise your hand like this and just hope and pray that the press secretary can see. It’s extremely inconvenient. I’m talking, I have to get there hours early at a chance during a 15-minute briefing.
So one of the things is that Trump has is he owes a huge part of his election to coming on podcasts and to new media. Now, because of that, it’s really important that the White House Correspondents’ Association, which is a literal guild cartel that keeps people out of the White House and credentials itself and creates this opaque mechanism through which they control access to asking the press secretary questions, is destroyed. There are a lot of different ways you can do this. Because what nobody gets, too, is that all of these rules are unofficial. For example, they’re just traditions. The White House is like, “Yeah, it’s our building, but you guys figure it out,” because that’s a longstanding tradition.
Let me give you another insane tradition that currently exists in the White House. The Associated Press or the Associated Press correspondent gets to start the briefing, traditionally. They get the first question. They also get to end the briefing. When they think it’s been enough time, they’ll be like, “Okay, Karine Jean-Pierre, thank you,” and that calls the briefing over. What? You’re not even in the White House Correspondents’ Association. You literally just happen to work for the Associated Press. Why? Why do we allow that to happen? So number one, stop doing that. To their credit, the Trump people didn’t really do that, but it’s a longstanding tradition.
The other thing is that what nobody gets either is that the first row is all television networks for logistical reasons so that they can do their little stand-ups with their mic and say, “I’m reporting for [inaudible 02:27:00].” Well, what people don’t seem to know is that all the television networks are basically going to ask some version of the same question. The reason they do that is because they need a clip of their correspondent going after the White House press secretary all out, Robert Mueller, like whenever I was there. So you get the same goddamn version of the stupid political questions over and over again.
The Briefing Room is designed for traditional media, and they have all the access in the world. So in an election where you owe your victory, at least in part, to new media and recognizing the changing landscape, you need to change the conduit of information to the American people. And in an election, I don’t know if you saw this, but election night coverage on cable news was down 25%, just in four years, 25%. That’s astounding. Cable news had a monopoly on election night for my entire lifetime, and yet, my show had record ratings that night.
Look, I’m a small slice of the puzzle here. We’ve got Candice Owens, Patrick Bet-David, Tim Pool, David Pakman, TYT, all these other people. From what I understand, all of us blew it out that night because millions of Americans watched it on YouTube. We even partnered with some Decision Desk HQs, so we had live data. We could make state calls. We’re just a silly little YouTube show. My point, though, is that in an election where the vast majority of Americans under the age of 55 are listening to podcasts, consuming new media, and are not watching cable news, where the median age of CNN, which is the youngest viewership, is 68. 68 is the median. Statistically, what does that tell us? There’s a decent number of people who are watching CNN who are in their ’80s and in their ’90s.
Yeah, I’m glad you brought up Alex, because he deserves a tremendous shout out, Alex Bruesewitz. He was the pioneer of the podcast strategy for the Donald J. Trump campaign. He got on your show. He was able to get on Andrew Schulz’s show, Rogan. He was the internal force that pushed a lot of this. My personal hope is that somebody like Alex is elevated in the traditional White House bureaucracy, that the number of credentials that are issued to these mainstream media outlets is cut, and there’s a new lottery process put in place where people with large audiences are invited.
I also want to make a case here for why I think it’s really important for people like you and others who don’t have as much traditional media experience to come and practice some capital J journalism because it will sharpen you, too, giving you access in that pressure cooker environment. Having to really sit there and spar a little bit with a public official and not have as long necessarily as you’re used to, it really hones your news media skills, your news gathering skills, and it will make you a better interviewer in the long run.
Because a lot of the things that I have learned have just been through osmosis. I’ve just lived in DC. I’ve been so lucky, I’ve had a lot of cool jobs, and I’ve just been able to experience a lot of this stuff. So I’m really hoping that people who are listening to this who may have some influence or even the viewership, if you want to reach out to them and all them, this is a very easily changeable problem. It’s a cartel which has no official power. It’s all power by tradition, and it needs to be blown up. It does not serve America’s interests to have 48 seats, I think, in the White House Press Briefing Room to people who have audiences of like five. It just makes absolutely zero. Workspace, seats, access, credentials, and also credentials that are issued to other new media journalists at major events should take precedence. Because it’s not even about rewarding the creator. The American people are here. You need to meet them. That’s your job.
I’ll just end with a historical thing. Barack Obama shocked the White House Press Corps in 2009 because he took a question from the Huffington Post, a brand new blog, but they were stunned because he knew, he said, “These blog people, they went all in for me, and I got to reward them.” So there’s a longstanding precedence of this. They’ll bitch and they’ll moan. They’ll be upset. But it’s their fault that they don’t have as much credibility. It’s incumbent upon the White House, which serves the public, to actually meet them where they are. So I really hope that at least some of this is implemented inside of it.
Lex Fridman
If you break apart the cartel, I think you can actually enable greater journalism, frankly-
If you break apart the cartel, I think you can actually enable greater journalism, frankly-
Saagar Enjeti
Of course.
Of course.
Lex Fridman
… with a capital J. Because actually in the long form is when you can do better journalism from even just the politician perspective. You can disagree. You can get criticized because you can defend yourself.
… with a capital J. Because actually in the long form is when you can do better journalism from even just the politician perspective. You can disagree. You can get criticized because you can defend yourself.
Saagar Enjeti
I had an idea, actually. You tell me what you think. I think a really cool format would be there’s a room right near the Press Briefing Room called the Roosevelt Room. A beautiful room, by the way. It’s awesome. It has the Medal of Honor for Teddy Roosevelt, and it has a portrait of him and a portrait of FDR. It’s one of my favorite rooms in the White House.
I had an idea, actually. You tell me what you think. I think a really cool format would be there’s a room right near the Press Briefing Room called the Roosevelt Room. A beautiful room, by the way. It’s awesome. It has the Medal of Honor for Teddy Roosevelt, and it has a portrait of him and a portrait of FDR. It’s one of my favorite rooms in the White House.
Lex Fridman
Fuck, yeah.
Fuck, yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
It’s so cool. So my idea would be in the Roosevelt Room, which traditionally used for press briefings and stuff, is you as the press secretary sit there, I think there’s like 12 seats, something like that, and you set it all up. You have, let’s say, Shure microphones like this, and that secretary is going to commit to being there for two hours. New media people can sit around the room. All of this being streamed live, by the way, just like the White House Press Briefing Room.
It’s so cool. So my idea would be in the Roosevelt Room, which traditionally used for press briefings and stuff, is you as the press secretary sit there, I think there’s like 12 seats, something like that, and you set it all up. You have, let’s say, Shure microphones like this, and that secretary is going to commit to being there for two hours. New media people can sit around the room. All of this being streamed live, by the way, just like the White House Press Briefing Room.
The expectation is that the type of questions have to be substantive. Obviously, nothing is off limits. You should never, ever accept, “I’m not going to be asked about this.” Especially as a journalist, you can’t do that. Every time they’re like, “Hey, please don’t ask about this,” it’s like, actually, that’s probably one thing you should ask about. My point being that the expectation is that there’s no interference on the White House side, but that the format itself will lend exactly to what you’re saying to allow people to explain.
Again, in a media era where we need to trust the consumer, my show is routinely over two hours long on cable television. On cable television, the Tucker Carlson program, whenever it was on Fox News, without commercial breaks was about 42, 43 minutes, something like that, of runtime. So I’m speaking for almost triple what that is on a regular basis. The point is is that millions are willing to sit and to listen, but you just have to meet them where they are. So I really hope that a format like that, like a streamer briefing or something like that, I think it’s… Look, I know they would dunk on it endlessly, but I think it could work.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think the incentives are different. I think it works because you, like you saw, don’t have to signal to the other journalists that you’re part of clique.
Yeah, I think the incentives are different. I think it works because you, like you saw, don’t have to signal to the other journalists that you’re part of clique.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, I’m so glad you brought that up because that was another lesson I learned. I go, “Oh, none of you are asking important questions for the people. You’re asking questions because you all hang out with each other, and you’re like, ‘Oh, wait.'” So this entire thing is a self-reinforcing guild to impress each other at cocktail parties and not to actually ask anything interesting. I remember people were so mad at me because, this was 2018 or maybe 2017, and I said, “Do you think that Kim Jong Un is sincere in his willingness to meet with you?” something to that effect. They were furious because I didn’t ask about some bullshit political controversy that was happening at the time. So in the historical legacy, what was more important? The Mueller question, or Donald Trump breaking 50 years or whatever of tradition with America’s relationship with North Korea and meeting him in Singapore and basically resetting that relationship for all time?
Oh, I’m so glad you brought that up because that was another lesson I learned. I go, “Oh, none of you are asking important questions for the people. You’re asking questions because you all hang out with each other, and you’re like, ‘Oh, wait.'” So this entire thing is a self-reinforcing guild to impress each other at cocktail parties and not to actually ask anything interesting. I remember people were so mad at me because, this was 2018 or maybe 2017, and I said, “Do you think that Kim Jong Un is sincere in his willingness to meet with you?” something to that effect. They were furious because I didn’t ask about some bullshit political controversy that was happening at the time. So in the historical legacy, what was more important? The Mueller question, or Donald Trump breaking 50 years or whatever of tradition with America’s relationship with North Korea and meeting him in Singapore and basically resetting that relationship for all time?
As you can tell, I read a lot of books. I like to take the long view. Every time I would ask a question, I go, when the future Robert Caro is writing books and he’s reading the transcript of the White House press briefing, he doesn’t even know who this kid is, he goes, “Oh, that was a pretty good question right there. That’s pretty relevant.” You got to think about all the bullshit that gets left on the cutting room floor.
Lex Fridman
I love that view of journalism, actually. The goal is to end up as one line in a history book.
I love that view of journalism, actually. The goal is to end up as one line in a history book.
Lex Fridman
The goal is to end up as one line in a history book 50 years from now.
The goal is to end up as one line in a history book 50 years from now.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. I just want a quote of what the president said to something that I asked.
Yes. I just want a quote of what the president said to something that I asked.
Lex Fridman
Yes, in a book.
Yes, in a book.
Saagar Enjeti
That’s, “I would be happy. I would die happy with that.” If you told me that when I’m like a nine-year-old man, I’d be like, “Man.” Right? That means I succeeded.
That’s, “I would be happy. I would die happy with that.” If you told me that when I’m like a nine-year-old man, I’d be like, “Man.” Right? That means I succeeded.
Lex Fridman
When the AIs write the history of human civilization.
When the AIs write the history of human civilization.
2020 Election
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
One of the things I continuously learned from you, when looking back through history, is how crazy American politics has been throughout history. It makes me feel a lot better about the current day.
One of the things I continuously learned from you, when looking back through history, is how crazy American politics has been throughout history. It makes me feel a lot better about the current day.
Saagar Enjeti
It should.
It should.
Lex Fridman
Corruption.
Corruption.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Just the divisiveness, also. Just the insanity-
Just the divisiveness, also. Just the insanity-
Saagar Enjeti
It’s been way worse.
It’s been way worse.
Lex Fridman
… of stealing elections at all levels of government, and direct stealing and indirect stealing, all kinds of stuff. So, is there stuff that jumps out to mind throughout history that’s just like the craziest corruptions or stealing of elections that come to mind?
… of stealing elections at all levels of government, and direct stealing and indirect stealing, all kinds of stuff. So, is there stuff that jumps out to mind throughout history that’s just like the craziest corruptions or stealing of elections that come to mind?
Saagar Enjeti
I’ll give them the micro and the macro. So my favorite example is Robert Caro, who I’ve probably talked about him a lot. God bless you, Robert. I hope you lived to write your last book because we really need that from you.
I’ll give them the micro and the macro. So my favorite example is Robert Caro, who I’ve probably talked about him a lot. God bless you, Robert. I hope you lived to write your last book because we really need that from you.
But Robert came to Texas. He only intended on writing three books about Lyndon Johnson. He’s currently completed four and he is on his fifth, and it’s taken over 40 years to write those. And one of the reasons is he just kept uncovering so much stuff. And one of them is book two, Means of Ascent. He never intended to write it, but as he began to investigate Lyndon Johnson’s 1948 Senate election, he realizes in real time how rigged and stolen it was. And so I often tell people, “What if I told you that we lived in the most secure election period in modern history?” They wouldn’t believe it. But if you read through that shit, I’m talking about bags of cash, millions of dollars, literal stuffed ballot boxes.
It’s great to be back here in Texas because I always think about that place down in Zapata and Starr County. I’m talking like basically Mexico, where these dons were in power in the 1940s. They would literally stuff the ballot boxes with the rolls, and they wouldn’t even allow people to come and vote. They just check marked it all for you based upon the amount that you paid. Means of Ascent is the painstaking detail of exactly how Lyndon Johnson stole the 1948 Senate election. And nothing like that, as far as I know, is still happening.
Macro, we can talk about the 1876 election. Rutherford B. Hayes, one of the closest elections in modern history. It was one of those that got kicked with the House of Representatives. That was an insane, insane time. The corrupt bargain that was struck to basically end reconstruction and federal occupation of the South. And of course, the amount of wheeling and dealing that happened inside of that was absolutely bonkers and nuts. That was what an actual stolen election looks like, just so people know.
So on a micro and a macro, yeah, that’s what it really looks like. And so look, I understand where people are coming from. Also, let’s do, what? 1960? That was pretty wild. In 1960, there was all those allegations about Illinois going for Kennedy. If you look at the actual vote totals of Kennedy-Nixon, wow. I mean, it’s such an insanely close presidential election. And even though the electoral college victory looks a little bit differently, Nixon would openly talk about. He’s like, “Oh, old Joe Kennedy rigged Illinois for his boy.” And he’d be like, “And we didn’t even have a chance in Texas with Lyndon pulling.” Like, Lyndon stuffing the ballot boxes down there. And this is open on the…
They openly admit this stuff. They talk about it. So actually, there’s a funny story. LBJ lost, I think, his 1941 Senate primary. And it’s because that his opponent, Pappy O’Daniel, actually outstole Lyndon. So they were both corrupt, but Pappy O’Daniel stuffed the ballot box in the fifth day of the seven days to count the votes. And FDR loved LBJ. And it’s interesting, right? FDR recognized Johnson’s. His talent. And he goes, “Lyndon? You know in New York, we sit on the ballot boxes until we count them.” Because he’s admitting that he participated in a lot of this stuff.
So, this high-level chicanery of stolen elections is actually an American pastime that we luckily have moved on from. And quite a lot of people do not know the exact intricate details of how wild it was back in the day.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s actually one of the things. It’s harder to pull off a bunch of bullshit with all these cameras everywhere now.
Yeah, it’s actually one of the things. It’s harder to pull off a bunch of bullshit with all these cameras everywhere now.
Saagar Enjeti
Mm-hmm. Transparency too, lack of cash, banking regulations. There’s a variety of reasons, but yeah.
Mm-hmm. Transparency too, lack of cash, banking regulations. There’s a variety of reasons, but yeah.
Lex Fridman
So that said, let’s talk about the 2020 election. It seems like forever ago. Do you think it was rigged the way that Trump claimed?
So that said, let’s talk about the 2020 election. It seems like forever ago. Do you think it was rigged the way that Trump claimed?
Saagar Enjeti
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
And was it rigged in other ways?
And was it rigged in other ways?
Saagar Enjeti
Look, this is the problem with language like rigged. And by the way, when I interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy, he said the exact same thing. So for all the MAGA people who are going to get mad at me, Vivek agrees. All right? And if…
Look, this is the problem with language like rigged. And by the way, when I interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy, he said the exact same thing. So for all the MAGA people who are going to get mad at me, Vivek agrees. All right? And if…
Okay. I have observed, and I’m going to put my analyst hat on. There are two theories of Stop the Steal. One I call Low IQ Stop the Steal, and one I call High IQ Stop the Steal. Low IQ Stop the Steal is basically what Donald Trump has advocated where Dominion voting machines, and bamboo ballots, and Venezuela and Sidney Powell, and all of the people involved basically got indicted by the state of Georgia. I’m not saying that that was correct. I’m just like, that’s what that actually looked like. Rudy Giuliani, et cetera.
High IQ Stop the Steal is basically… And actually, these are not illegitimate arguments. The school of thought is it was illegitimate for the state of Pennsylvania and other swing states to change mail-in balloting laws as a response to COVID, which enabled millions of people more to vote that wouldn’t have, and that those change in regulations became enough to swing the election. I actually think that that is true. Now, would you say that that’s rigged? That’s a very important question because we’re talking about a Republican state legislature, a Republican state supreme court. Right? The two that actually ruled on this question. So, could you say that it was rigged by the Democrats to do that?
Another problem with that theory is that while you can say that that’s unfair to change the rules last time around, you can also understand it to a certain extent. And I’m not justifying it, I’m just giving you an example. So for example, after the hurricane hit North Carolina, Republican officials were like, “Hey, we need to make sure that these people in Western North Carolina who were affected by the hurricane could still be able to have access to the ballot box.”
And people were like, “Oh, so you’re saying in an extraordinary circumstance that you should change voting access and regularity to make sure that people have access?” So, my point is you can see the logic through which this happened. And the high IQ version is basically the one that was adopted by Josh Hawley whenever he voted against certification. He said that the state of Pennsylvania, particularly election law, and that those changes were unfair and led to the, quote-unquote, rigging of the election against Donald Trump. Now, there’s an even higher IQ, Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal. Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal is one that you saw, with great love and respect, my friend JD Vance, at his debate with Tim Walsh. When Tim Walsh asked him, [inaudible 02:42:36]. He said, “Did Donald Trump win the 2020 election?”
He’s like, “Tim, I focus on the future.” And then he started talking about censorship, the Hunter Biden laptop story. If you take a look at the Joe Rogan interview, Rogan actually asked JD this. He’s like, “What do you mean you’re in the election? Some version of that.”
And JD was like, “Well, what I get really frustrated by is people will bring up all of these insane conspiracy theories, but they ignore that the media censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, and that big tech had its finger on the thumb for the Democrats.” Now, that is empirically true. Okay? That is true, right? Now, would you say that that’s rigged? I’m not going to use that word because that’s a very different word. Now, would you say that that’s unfair? Yeah, I think it’s unfair.
So there’s another, a lot of MAGA folks picked up on this one. There was a Time Magazine article in 2020 that’s very famous in their crowd, called the… It was like the fight to fortify the election, and it was about all of these institutions that put their fingers on the scale for Joe Biden against Donald Trump. So I will put it this way, was Donald Trump up against the Titanic forces of billionaires, tech censorship, and elite institutions who all did absolute damnedest to defeat him in 2020? Yes, that is true. And in a sense, the Galaxy Brain case is the only one of those which I think is truly legitimate.
And I’m not going to put it off the table, but this is the problem, that’s not what Trump means. Trump, by the way, will never tell you what I just told you. JD will. If you go and you ask any of these Republican politicians when they’re challenged on it and they don’t want to say that Trump loss at 2020 election, they’ll give the hype, the Galaxy Brain case that I just gave. And again, I don’t think it’s wrong. But it’s like, guys, that’s not what he means when he says it. And that’s the important parsing of the case, right?
Lex Fridman
So first at a high level, Trump or otherwise, I don’t like anyone who whines when they lose. Period.
So first at a high level, Trump or otherwise, I don’t like anyone who whines when they lose. Period.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Although, he did tell you he lost. Did you notice that? That’s the only time he’s ever said it. Ever.
Yeah. Although, he did tell you he lost. Did you notice that? That’s the only time he’s ever said it. Ever.
Lex Fridman
I did.
I did.
Saagar Enjeti
You’re famous. You’re in history for that one.
You’re famous. You’re in history for that one.
Lex Fridman
Lost by the whisker.
Lost by the whisker.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. “I lost by a whisker.”
Yeah. “I lost by a whisker.”
Lex Fridman
I mean, there is a case to be made that he was joking, I don’t know. But there is a kind of weaving that he does with humor, where sometimes it’s sarcasm, sometimes not, much easier to showcase in a three-hour interview, I’ll say.
I mean, there is a case to be made that he was joking, I don’t know. But there is a kind of weaving that he does with humor, where sometimes it’s sarcasm, sometimes not, much easier to showcase in a three-hour interview, I’ll say.
Saagar Enjeti
Good call. Go ahead.
Good call. Go ahead.
Lex Fridman
I couldn’t even play with that when you have 40 minutes.
I couldn’t even play with that when you have 40 minutes.
Saagar Enjeti
I know, bro.
I know, bro.
Lex Fridman
You’re like… I could do just 40 minutes on weaving alone.
You’re like… I could do just 40 minutes on weaving alone.
Saagar Enjeti
For your style, it doesn’t work. And I can tell you how the way I interview politicians is I just do pure policy. So the first time I interviewed Trump, I compiled a list of 15 subjects, me and my editor Vince Coglianese. Shout out to Vince. The two of us sat in an office and then we had questions by priority in each category. And if we felt like we were running short on time, we would move around those different ones.
For your style, it doesn’t work. And I can tell you how the way I interview politicians is I just do pure policy. So the first time I interviewed Trump, I compiled a list of 15 subjects, me and my editor Vince Coglianese. Shout out to Vince. The two of us sat in an office and then we had questions by priority in each category. And if we felt like we were running short on time, we would move around those different ones.
But that was purely, he’s the president. We’re asking him for his opinions on an immigration bill or whatever. For what you do, it’s impossible to do it for you.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I just want to say that thank you for everybody involved for making my conversation with Donald Trump possible, but I’ve learned a lot from that. That if I’m told that all I have is 40 minutes, I’m very politely sparing, in that case, Donald Trump, the 40 minutes and just walking away, because I don’t think I can do a good job. [inaudible 02:46:06]
Yeah. I just want to say that thank you for everybody involved for making my conversation with Donald Trump possible, but I’ve learned a lot from that. That if I’m told that all I have is 40 minutes, I’m very politely sparing, in that case, Donald Trump, the 40 minutes and just walking away, because I don’t think I can do a good job. [inaudible 02:46:06]
Saagar Enjeti
I think that is the correct decision on your part.
I think that is the correct decision on your part.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
And I also would encourage you to have the confidence at this point, that you are in a position of something that we call, in the business, the ability to compel the interview. And to compel means to be able to bring somebody else to you and not the other way around. And I think that you and Rogan and a few others are in that very unique position, and I would really encourage you guys to stick to your guns on things that make you feel comfortable.
And I also would encourage you to have the confidence at this point, that you are in a position of something that we call, in the business, the ability to compel the interview. And to compel means to be able to bring somebody else to you and not the other way around. And I think that you and Rogan and a few others are in that very unique position, and I would really encourage you guys to stick to your guns on things that make you feel comfortable.
Because those of us in news, we will always negotiate. We’re willing to do short form because we’re asking about policy. But for the style that you help popularize, and I think that you’re uniquely talented and good at, that’s very important not to compromise on.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for saying those words. And that’s not just in the interest of journalism and the interest of conversations, it’s the interest of the guests as well.
Thank you for saying those words. And that’s not just in the interest of journalism and the interest of conversations, it’s the interest of the guests as well.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, absolutely.
Lex Fridman
To bring out the best in them.
To bring out the best in them.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. I mean, I would feel really adding to service. And I would feel like people would not get a unique understanding of my own thought process and my backstory if I was not able to sit here for literally hours, and to explain in deep detail how I think about the world. Not that anyone cares that much, but it’s just like all I can do is I hope it’s helpful. I want to help people think.
Yeah. I mean, I would feel really adding to service. And I would feel like people would not get a unique understanding of my own thought process and my backstory if I was not able to sit here for literally hours, and to explain in deep detail how I think about the world. Not that anyone cares that much, but it’s just like all I can do is I hope it’s helpful. I want to help people think.
Because when I was growing, I was grew up not far from here, 90 minutes from here, in College Station. I felt very uniquely closed off from the world. I found the world through books, and books saved my life so many different times. And I hope to encourage that in other people. I really… No matter where you are, no matter who you are, no matter how busy you are, if you have some time, to either sit down with a book or put on an audiobook, and you can transport yourself into a different world. It’s so important. And that’s something that your show really helps me with, too. I love listening to your show whenever. Sometimes when I’m too into politics and I need to listen to something, I’ll listen to that Mayan historian guy. I love stuff like that, absolutely.
Lex Fridman
I’ve been in a deep dive on Genghis Khan, reading Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World.
I’ve been in a deep dive on Genghis Khan, reading Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Jack Weatherford. Fantastic.
Yeah. Jack Weatherford. Fantastic.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he’s coming on.
Yeah, he’s coming on.
Saagar Enjeti
Is he?
Is he?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Amazing.
Amazing.
Lex Fridman
And again, shout out to Dan Carlin.
And again, shout out to Dan Carlin.
Saagar Enjeti
The goat, the OG. Dan, I’ve never met you before. I would love to correspond at some point. I love you so much. You changed my life, man.
The goat, the OG. Dan, I’ve never met you before. I would love to correspond at some point. I love you so much. You changed my life, man.
Lex Fridman
I met him once before, and it felt any else-
I met him once before, and it felt any else-
Saagar Enjeti
I was in your interview with him.
I was in your interview with him.
Lex Fridman
I was starstruck. Very, very starstruck. And his… I mean, there’s so much Painfotainment that I’ve listened to it many times.
I was starstruck. Very, very starstruck. And his… I mean, there’s so much Painfotainment that I’ve listened to it many times.
Saagar Enjeti
I think one of his best series that he gets no credit for, Ghosts of the Ostfront. Nobody gives him credit for that one. That’s OG. This is a 2011 series. But his Ghosts of the Ostfront on the eastern front of the Nazi war against Russia fundamentally changed my view of warfare forever. And also at that time, I was very young. And to me, World War II was saving Private Ryan. I wasn’t as well-read as I am.
I think one of his best series that he gets no credit for, Ghosts of the Ostfront. Nobody gives him credit for that one. That’s OG. This is a 2011 series. But his Ghosts of the Ostfront on the eastern front of the Nazi war against Russia fundamentally changed my view of warfare forever. And also at that time, I was very young. And to me, World War II was saving Private Ryan. I wasn’t as well-read as I am.
Now, and I was like, “Oh shit. This entire thing happened which actually decided the Second World War, and I don’t know anything about this.” So, shout out to Dan. God bless you, man.
Lex Fridman
And his, quote-unquote, short episodes I think on slavery in general, Throughout Human History-
And his, quote-unquote, short episodes I think on slavery in general, Throughout Human History-
Saagar Enjeti
That was an awesome episode. I actually bought a bunch of Hugh Thomas books because of that episode. I’d never really read about African slavery or the slave trade outside of the Civil War context. So again, shout out to him for that one. That was an amazing episode.
That was an awesome episode. I actually bought a bunch of Hugh Thomas books because of that episode. I’d never really read about African slavery or the slave trade outside of the Civil War context. So again, shout out to him for that one. That was an amazing episode.
Lex Fridman
Hugh-
Hugh-
Saagar Enjeti
His Japan series, too. I’m going to Japan in a few days, and I keep thinking of what he always talked about in his Supernova in the East, ” The Japanese are like everyone else but only more so.” And the…
His Japan series, too. I’m going to Japan in a few days, and I keep thinking of what he always talked about in his Supernova in the East, ” The Japanese are like everyone else but only more so.” And the…
God, I love that quote.
Lex Fridman
Okay, he’s great. And we ironically arrived at this tangent while talking about the 2020 election.
Okay, he’s great. And we ironically arrived at this tangent while talking about the 2020 election.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. That’s why podcasting is fun.
Yeah. That’s why podcasting is fun.
Lex Fridman
Because he said lost by a whisker. And now, were dragging us, screaming back to the topic. One of the things I was bothered by is Trump claiming that there’s widespread, as you’re saying, low IQ theory, the widespread voter fraud. And I saw no evidence of that that he provided.
Because he said lost by a whisker. And now, were dragging us, screaming back to the topic. One of the things I was bothered by is Trump claiming that there’s widespread, as you’re saying, low IQ theory, the widespread voter fraud. And I saw no evidence of that that he provided.
And all right, let’s put that on the table. And then the other thing I was troubled by, that maybe you can comfort me in the context of history, how easily the base ate that up. That they were able to believe the election was truly rigged based on no clear evidence that I saw. And they just love the story. And there is something compelling to the story, like this DNC type. Like with Bernie, the establishment just state they’re corrupt and they steal the will of the people. And the lack of desire from the base or from people to see any evidence of that, what’s really troubled me.
Saagar Enjeti
I’m going to give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true. Roger Ailes, who is a genius. Shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman. That book changed my life too, because it really made me understand media. People don’t want to be informed, they want to feel informed. That is one of the most fundamental media insights of all time.
I’m going to give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true. Roger Ailes, who is a genius. Shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman. That book changed my life too, because it really made me understand media. People don’t want to be informed, they want to feel informed. That is one of the most fundamental media insights of all time.
Lex Fridman
Oh, fuck. What a line.
Oh, fuck. What a line.
Saagar Enjeti
Roger Ailes, a genius. A genius in his own right who… He changed the world. He certainly did. He’s the one who gets credit for one of the greatest debate lines of all time because he was an advisor to President Reagan. Whenever he broke in, and he was like, “Mr. President, people want to know if you’re too damn old for this job or not.” And he inspired that joke that Reagan made, where he was like, “I will not use age in this campaign. I’ll not hold my opponent’s youth and inexperience against him.” That was Ailes, man. He did the Nixon townhalls. He did it all. He’s a fucking genius.
Roger Ailes, a genius. A genius in his own right who… He changed the world. He certainly did. He’s the one who gets credit for one of the greatest debate lines of all time because he was an advisor to President Reagan. Whenever he broke in, and he was like, “Mr. President, people want to know if you’re too damn old for this job or not.” And he inspired that joke that Reagan made, where he was like, “I will not use age in this campaign. I’ll not hold my opponent’s youth and inexperience against him.” That was Ailes, man. He did the Nixon townhalls. He did it all. He’s a fucking genius.
And I’m not advocating necessarily for the world he created for us, but he did it, and people should study him more. If you’re interested in media in particular, that book is one of the most important books you’ll ever read.
Lex Fridman
You know what? That quote just really connected with me because there’s all of this talk about truth. And I think what people want to… They want to feel like they’re in possession of the truth.
You know what? That quote just really connected with me because there’s all of this talk about truth. And I think what people want to… They want to feel like they’re in possession of the truth.
Saagar Enjeti
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
Not actually being the possession of the truth.
Not actually being the possession of the truth.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I know. It hit me, too. Actually, Russell Crowe does an amazing job of delivering that line in the Showtime miniseries. So if you have the chance, you should watch it. And look, this is the problem. Liberals will be like, “Yeah. See these idiot Republicans?”
Yeah, I know. It hit me, too. Actually, Russell Crowe does an amazing job of delivering that line in the Showtime miniseries. So if you have the chance, you should watch it. And look, this is the problem. Liberals will be like, “Yeah. See these idiot Republicans?”
I’m like, “Yeah. You guys have bought a lot of crazy stupid shit, too. Okay?” And if actually, I would say liberal misinformation, quote-unquote, is worse than Republican disinformation because it pervades the entire elite media like RussiaGate or Cambridge Analytica or any of these other hoaxes that have been foisted on the American people. The people who listen to the Daily and from the New York Times are just as brainwashed, lack of informed, want to feel informed as people who watch Fox News. So, let me just say that out there. It’s an equal opportunity, cancer in the American football.
Lex Fridman
Actually, we started early on in the conversation talking about bubbles. What’s your advice about how to figure out if you’re in a bubble and how to get out of it?
Actually, we started early on in the conversation talking about bubbles. What’s your advice about how to figure out if you’re in a bubble and how to get out of it?
Saagar Enjeti
That’s such a fantastic question. Unfortunately, I think it comes really naturally to someone like me because I’m the child of immigrants and I was raised in College Station, Texas. So, I was always on the outside. And when you’re on the outside… This isn’t a sob story. It’s a deeply useful skill because when you’re on the outside, you’re forced to observe. And you’re like, “Oh.” When I was raised was the Bible belt, and people really… People were hardcore Evangelical Christians. So, I could tell. I’m like, “Oh, they really believe this stuff.” And they were always trying to proselytize and all of that.
That’s such a fantastic question. Unfortunately, I think it comes really naturally to someone like me because I’m the child of immigrants and I was raised in College Station, Texas. So, I was always on the outside. And when you’re on the outside… This isn’t a sob story. It’s a deeply useful skill because when you’re on the outside, you’re forced to observe. And you’re like, “Oh.” When I was raised was the Bible belt, and people really… People were hardcore Evangelical Christians. So, I could tell. I’m like, “Oh, they really believe this stuff.” And they were always trying to proselytize and all of that.
And then the other gift that my parents gave me is I got to travel the entire world. I probably visited 25, 30 countries by the time I was 18. And one of the things that that gave me was the ability to just put yourself in the brain of another person. So one of the reasons I’m really excited to go to Japan, and I picked it as a spot for my honeymoon, was because Japan is a first-world developed country where the vast majority of them don’t speak English. It’s distinguishably non-Western and they just do shit their own way. So they have a subway, but it’s not the same as ours. They have restaurants, things don’t work the same way. They have…
I could go a laundry list. Their entire philosophy of life, of the daily rhythm, even though it merges with service-based managerial capitalism and they’re fucking good at it too, they do it their own way. So, exposure to other countries in the world gave me… And also, just being an outsider myself gave me a more detached view of the world. So if you don’t have that, what I would encourage you is to flex that muscle. So, go somewhere that makes you uncomfortable. This will be a very boomer take, but I hate the fact that you have 5G everywhere you go in the world. Because some of the best experiences I’ve ever had in my life is walking around Warsaw, Poland trying to find a bus station to get my ass to Lithuania with a printed out bus ticket. I have no idea where the street is. I’m in a country where not that many people speak English. We’re pointing and gesturing, and I figured it out. And it was really useful. I got to meet a lot of cool Polish people.
Same in Thailand. I’ve been in rural, like [inaudible 02:55:32], Thailand, Columbia. Places where people speak zero English. And your ability to gesture and use Pidgin really connects you and gives you the ability to get an exposure to others. And I know this is a very wanderlust-like travel thing, but unironically, if you’re raised in a bubble, pierce it. That’s the answer, is seek something out that makes you uncomfortable. So if you’re raised rich, you need to go spend some time with poor people.
Lex Fridman
And consider that they might actually understand the world better than you.
And consider that they might actually understand the world better than you.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, in some respects. I think a lot of rich people have really screwed-up personal lives. So if you’re poor and you really value family, you say, “Oh, that’s interesting. There seems to be a fundamental trade-off between extraordinary wealth and something that I value. But what can I take away from that person? Oh, put my money in index funds. Make sure that I am conscientious about my budgeting.” It’s common sense shit, right? And vice versa. People who are very wealthy get so caught up in the rat race about their kids going to private school and all of this. And then, they very rarely engage with…
Well, in some respects. I think a lot of rich people have really screwed-up personal lives. So if you’re poor and you really value family, you say, “Oh, that’s interesting. There seems to be a fundamental trade-off between extraordinary wealth and something that I value. But what can I take away from that person? Oh, put my money in index funds. Make sure that I am conscientious about my budgeting.” It’s common sense shit, right? And vice versa. People who are very wealthy get so caught up in the rat race about their kids going to private school and all of this. And then, they very rarely engage with…
There’s that famous study where they ask people on their deathbed what they valued in life, and every single one of them was like, “I wish I’d spend more time with my children.” I think about that every time. That I am thinking about pursuing a new work endeavor or something that’s going to have me spend significant time away from my wife. And I’m almost always these days, now that I’ve achieved a certain level of success, the answer is, “I’m not doing it unless you can come with me.”
Lex Fridman
One of the bubbles I’m really concerned about is San Francisco bubble. I visited there recently because I have so many friends there that I respect deeply. There’s so many brilliant people in San Francisco.
One of the bubbles I’m really concerned about is San Francisco bubble. I visited there recently because I have so many friends there that I respect deeply. There’s so many brilliant people in San Francisco.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
The Silicon Valley. But there’s just this… I don’t even want to criticize it, but there’s definitely a bubble of thought.
The Silicon Valley. But there’s just this… I don’t even want to criticize it, but there’s definitely a bubble of thought.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I’m with you. I’m friends with some SV, Silicon Valley people as well. I’m similarly struck by that every time I go. And honestly, I do admire them because they… What I respect the most amongst entrepreneurs, business, and political thinkers is systems thinking. Nobody thinks systems better than people who are in tech because they deal with global shit. Not even just America. They have to think about the whole world, about the human being and his relationship with technology. And coding, in some ways, is an expression of the human mind. About how that person wants to achieve this thing and how you mechanically can type that into a keyboard or even code something to code for you to be able to achieve that. That’s a remarkable accomplishment. I do think those people… And people like that too, who think very linearly through math, their geniuses are the ones who can take their creativity and merge it with linear thinking. But I do think that that actually, those are the people who probably most need to get out of the bubble, check themselves a little bit.
Yeah, I’m with you. I’m friends with some SV, Silicon Valley people as well. I’m similarly struck by that every time I go. And honestly, I do admire them because they… What I respect the most amongst entrepreneurs, business, and political thinkers is systems thinking. Nobody thinks systems better than people who are in tech because they deal with global shit. Not even just America. They have to think about the whole world, about the human being and his relationship with technology. And coding, in some ways, is an expression of the human mind. About how that person wants to achieve this thing and how you mechanically can type that into a keyboard or even code something to code for you to be able to achieve that. That’s a remarkable accomplishment. I do think those people… And people like that too, who think very linearly through math, their geniuses are the ones who can take their creativity and merge it with linear thinking. But I do think that that actually, those are the people who probably most need to get out of the bubble, check themselves a little bit.
And look, it’s really hard. Once you achieve a certain level of economic success and others, what do most rich people do? They close themselves off from the world. Vast majority of the time, what do you do? Economy is annoying flying. They fly first class. Living in a small house is annoying. They buy a bigger house. Dealing with a lot of these inconveniences of life is annoying. You pay a little bit more to make sure you don’t have to do that. There’s a deep insidious thing within that, each one of those individual choices. Where the more and more removed that you get from that, the more in the bubble that you are. So, you should actually seek out those experiences or create them in a concerted way.
Sam Harris
Lex Fridman
Speaking of bubbles, Sam Harris.
Speaking of bubbles, Sam Harris.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh.
Oh.
Lex Fridman
He has continued to criticize me directly and indirectly, I think unfairly, but I love Sam. I deeply respect him. Everybody should listen to the Making Sense podcast. It always makes me think. It’s definitely in the rotation for me.
He has continued to criticize me directly and indirectly, I think unfairly, but I love Sam. I deeply respect him. Everybody should listen to the Making Sense podcast. It always makes me think. It’s definitely in the rotation for me.
Saagar Enjeti
That’s a very admirable view.
That’s a very admirable view.
Lex Fridman
He’s, I think, one of the sharpest minds of our generation. And for a long time, I looked up to him. It was one of the weird moments for me to meet him because you listen to somebody for such a long time.
He’s, I think, one of the sharpest minds of our generation. And for a long time, I looked up to him. It was one of the weird moments for me to meet him because you listen to somebody for such a long time.
Saagar Enjeti
I feel that way with you, yeah. I’m serious.
I feel that way with you, yeah. I’m serious.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s a beautiful moment. Same with Joe and stuff like this.
Yeah, it’s a beautiful moment. Same with Joe and stuff like this.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, absolutely.
Oh, absolutely.
Lex Fridman
It’s a-
It’s a-
Saagar Enjeti
It is one of the most surreal moments of your life, to be able to meet somebody who you spend hours listening to. I actually think about that when people come up to me. Because I’m like, “Oh, they’re feeling what I felt whenever I…”
It is one of the most surreal moments of your life, to be able to meet somebody who you spend hours listening to. I actually think about that when people come up to me. Because I’m like, “Oh, they’re feeling what I felt whenever I…”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And you see it, you feel it, and you have to celebrate that because there is an intimacy to it. I think it’s real that people really do form a real connection, a real friendship. It happens to be one-way, but I think it actually can upgrade to a two-way pretty easily. It happens with me in a matter of five minutes when I meet somebody at an airport or something like that.
Yeah. And you see it, you feel it, and you have to celebrate that because there is an intimacy to it. I think it’s real that people really do form a real connection, a real friendship. It happens to be one-way, but I think it actually can upgrade to a two-way pretty easily. It happens with me in a matter of five minutes when I meet somebody at an airport or something like that.
Saagar Enjeti
Definitely.
Definitely.
Lex Fridman
Anyway, Sam took a pretty strong position on Trump.
Anyway, Sam took a pretty strong position on Trump.
Saagar Enjeti
And has for a long time.
And has for a long time.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. He has been consistent and unwavering. He thinks that Trump is a truly dangerous person for a democracy, for… Maybe, for the world. Can you steel man his position?
Yeah. He has been consistent and unwavering. He thinks that Trump is a truly dangerous person for a democracy, for… Maybe, for the world. Can you steel man his position?
Saagar Enjeti
See, I think a lot of this podcast has been steel manning it because Sam is a big character matters guy. He focuses a lot on Trump’s personality. By the way, I’m like you. I’ve listened to Sam Harris for years. I bought his meditation app. So, nobody’s going to accuse me of being some Sam Harris hater. I listened to him for way before, long before even Donald Trump was elected. That’s how far back I go with the Sam Harris podcast. I have a lot of respect for the dude. I enjoy a lot of his older interviews.
See, I think a lot of this podcast has been steel manning it because Sam is a big character matters guy. He focuses a lot on Trump’s personality. By the way, I’m like you. I’ve listened to Sam Harris for years. I bought his meditation app. So, nobody’s going to accuse me of being some Sam Harris hater. I listened to him for way before, long before even Donald Trump was elected. That’s how far back I go with the Sam Harris podcast. I have a lot of respect for the dude. I enjoy a lot of his older interviews.
I do think after Trump, he did succumb a little bit, in my opinion, to the elite liberalism view, both of the impetus behind Donald Trump and why he was able to be successful. So in some ways, very denigrating to the Trump voter, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of the American presidency. Because like I said, he really is the one who believes that that narcissism, that character and all of that that makes Trump tick itself will eventually override any potential benefit that he could have in office. And I just think that’s a really wrong way of looking at it.
I mean, for example, I had this debate with Crystal, and this gets to the whole Trump talking about the enemy from within. And she was like, “He wants to prosecute his political opponents. Do you disagree with that?”
And I was like, “No, I don’t.”
And she was like, “So, you’re not worried about it?”
And I go, “No, I’m not.”
And she’s like, “Well, how do you square that?”
And I was like, “Well, I actually unironically believe in the American system of institutional checks and balances.” Which kept him, quote-unquote, in check last time around. I also believe in democracy where… This is really interesting, but in 2022, a lot of the Republicans who were the most vociferous about Stop the Steal, they got their asses kicked at the ballot box. Americans also then, in 2024, decided to forgive some of that from Donald Trump. It definitely didn’t help, right? But they were able to oversee that for their own interests. As in democratically, people are able to weigh in terms of checks and balances, what they should and should not challenge a politician by. But also, we have the American legal system, and I also know the way that the institutions in Washington themselves work. That fundamentally, the way that certain processes and other things could play out will not play out to some Hitlerian fantasy.
And this gets to the whole Kamala and them calling her a fascist and a Hitler. You and I probably spent hours of our lives, maybe more, thinking and reading about Adolf Hitler, Weimar Germany. And I just find it so insulting because it becomes this moniker of fascist. You know what I’m saying? These terms have meaning beyond just the dictionary definition. The circumstances through which Hitler is able to rise to power are not the same as today. And it’s like, stop denigrating America to the point where you think… Really, you should flip it around. Why do you think America is Weimar, Germany? That’s a ridiculous thing to say. Do you unironically believe that? No, you don’t believe that.
So, that is personally what drives me a little bit crazy. And I think that Sam has found himself in a mental framework where he is not willing, he’s not able to look past the man and his, quote-unquote, danger. And at the end of the day, his worldview was rejected wholly by the American people. Because the character argument, the fascist argument, the Hitler argument, the he’s uniquely bad argument has been run twice before 2016 and in 20… Actually, all three times. I guess, it won in 2020.
But two out of the three times, Donald Trump has won the presidency. And in his latest one, where that argument has never been made before for a longer period of time and more in strength by a political candidate, was rejected completely. And I would ask him to reconcile himself to the America that he lives in.
Lex Fridman
I think one thing, maybe to partially steel man his case but also just to steel man the way the world works, is that there is some probability that Kamala Harris will institute a communist state and there is some probability that Donald Trump will indeed… Will fly a swastika with… And deport, I don’t know, everybody who’s not Scott Irish. I don’t know.
I think one thing, maybe to partially steel man his case but also just to steel man the way the world works, is that there is some probability that Kamala Harris will institute a communist state and there is some probability that Donald Trump will indeed… Will fly a swastika with… And deport, I don’t know, everybody who’s not Scott Irish. I don’t know.
Saagar Enjeti
You and I are screwed then.
You and I are screwed then.
Lex Fridman
Maybe, is there a spirit test?
Maybe, is there a spirit test?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Okay. But that probability is small, and you have to… If you allow yourself to focus on a particular trajectory with a small probability, it can become all-encompassing. Because you could see it. You could see a path. There are certain character qualities to Trump where he wants to hold onto power.
Okay. But that probability is small, and you have to… If you allow yourself to focus on a particular trajectory with a small probability, it can become all-encompassing. Because you could see it. You could see a path. There are certain character qualities to Trump where he wants to hold onto power.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, absolutely.
Yes, absolutely.
Lex Fridman
First of all, every politician wants to hold onto power. Joe Biden, maybe because he’s part of the machine, can’t even conceive of the notion of a third term. But he has the arrogance to want to hold onto power, do everything he can.
First of all, every politician wants to hold onto power. Joe Biden, maybe because he’s part of the machine, can’t even conceive of the notion of a third term. But he has the arrogance to want to hold onto power, do everything he can.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
And with Trump, I could see that if it was very popular for him to have a third term, I think he would not be the kind of person who doesn’t advocate for a third term.
And with Trump, I could see that if it was very popular for him to have a third term, I think he would not be the kind of person who doesn’t advocate for a third term.
Saagar Enjeti
So, what? That would require the Senate and the House or 70… What is it? 70-
So, what? That would require the Senate and the House or 70… What is it? 70-
Saagar Enjeti
That would require the Senate and the House or 70… What is it? 75% of the states to pass and change the Constitution. Do you think that’s going to happen? No, I don’t think it’s going to happen, so I’m not that worried about it. Now, you can make a norms argument, and I actually think that’s fair, is that he’s the norms buster. But with extraordinary candidates and people like Trump, you get the good and the bad. There is a true duality. The norms he busts around foreign policy, I love. The norms he busts around the economy, I love. The norms he busts around just so much of the American political system saying how it’s et cetera, I love that. You know what I hate? This 2020 election bullshit. You know what else I hate? I don’t know. The lack of discipline that I would want to think that a great leader could have like when he was president and tweeting about Mika Brzezinski’s facelift. That was objectively ridiculous.
That would require the Senate and the House or 70… What is it? 75% of the states to pass and change the Constitution. Do you think that’s going to happen? No, I don’t think it’s going to happen, so I’m not that worried about it. Now, you can make a norms argument, and I actually think that’s fair, is that he’s the norms buster. But with extraordinary candidates and people like Trump, you get the good and the bad. There is a true duality. The norms he busts around foreign policy, I love. The norms he busts around the economy, I love. The norms he busts around just so much of the American political system saying how it’s et cetera, I love that. You know what I hate? This 2020 election bullshit. You know what else I hate? I don’t know. The lack of discipline that I would want to think that a great leader could have like when he was president and tweeting about Mika Brzezinski’s facelift. That was objectively ridiculous.
It was crazy, okay? Was it funny? Yeah, but it was crazy, and it’s not how I would conceive and have conceived of some of my favorite presidents. I wouldn’t think that they would do that, but that’s what you get. Everyone should be clear-eyed about who this man is, and that’s another problem. The deification of politicians is sick. It’s sickening about Trump, around Obama. These people are just people. The idea that they are godlike creatures with extraordinary judgment… One of the really cool things about you and I’s job is we actually get to meet very important people. After you meet a few billionaires, you’re like, “Yeah, there’s definitely something there. But some of them get lucky.” After you meet a few politicians, you’re like, “Oh. They’re like… They’re not that smart.” That was a rude awakening for me, by the way, being here in Texas, reading about these people.
And pretty soon, I was on Capitol Hill. I was 19 years old. I was an intern. I’m actually interacting, and I see them behave in ridiculous manners and whatever. Just treat people badly or say something stupid. I was like, “Oh.” I’m like, “This is not the West Wing.” I’m like, “This is not a book. These people are just… This is just reality.” The weirdest part of my life is I’ve now been in Washington long enough. I know some of the people personally, the vice president of the United States, literally the vice president-elect, future cabinet secretaries, these people I literally have met, had dinner with, had a drink with, whatever. That’s a wild thing, and that’s even more bringing you down to Earth. You’re like, “Oh, shit. You’re actually going to have a lot of power. That’s kind of scary, but you’re just a person.”
So even though you don’t have to say, “I have my same life experience,” take it from me or anybody else who’s ever met really famous people, rich, successful, powerful people. They’re just people. There’s nothing that… There’s some things that are unique about them, but they have just as many human qualities as you or anybody else who’s listening to this right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. For each candidate, Trump is probably the extreme version of that. There’s a distribution of the possible trajectories their administration might result in, and the range of possible trajectories is just much wider with Trump.
Yeah. For each candidate, Trump is probably the extreme version of that. There’s a distribution of the possible trajectories their administration might result in, and the range of possible trajectories is just much wider with Trump.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, you’re describing a Bayesian theory, right? I think that’s actually a really useful framework for the world, is that people are really too binary. So like you said, there’s a theoretical possibility, I guess, of a communist takeover of government and of fascist takeover of government under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The realistic probability, I would give it 0.05% probably in both directions. But there are a lot of things that can happen that are bad, that are not Hitlerian or fascist. There are a lot of things that happen that are really good, that are not FDR New Deal style. One of the worst things politicians do is they describe themselves in false historical ways. So in Washington, one of the most overused phrases is made history.
Yeah, you’re describing a Bayesian theory, right? I think that’s actually a really useful framework for the world, is that people are really too binary. So like you said, there’s a theoretical possibility, I guess, of a communist takeover of government and of fascist takeover of government under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The realistic probability, I would give it 0.05% probably in both directions. But there are a lot of things that can happen that are bad, that are not Hitlerian or fascist. There are a lot of things that happen that are really good, that are not FDR New Deal style. One of the worst things politicians do is they describe themselves in false historical ways. So in Washington, one of the most overused phrases is made history.
I’m like, “If you actually read history, most of these things are just…” They’re not even footnotes. They’re the stuff that the historians flip past, and they’re like, “What a stupid bucking thing.” I’m talking about things that ruled American politics. What if I told you that the Panama Canal Treaty was one of the most important fights in modern American politics? Nobody thinks about that today. It ruled American politics at that time. It genuinely is a footnote, but that’s not how it felt at the time. So that’s another thing I want people to take away.
UFOs
Lex Fridman
You tragically missed the UFO hearings.
You tragically missed the UFO hearings.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, man. My brothers, I’m really sad.
Oh, man. My brothers, I’m really sad.
Lex Fridman
My brothers.
My brothers.
Saagar Enjeti
Let me tell you, I love them so much. The UFO community are some of the best people I’ve ever met in my life. Shout out to my brother Jeremy Corbell, to George Knapp, the OG, to all of the people who fly from all around the world to come to these hearings. It was so fun. I got to meet so many of them last time. Just walk the rope line as people were coming. And the excitement, the… I truly love the UFO community. Shout out to all of them.
Let me tell you, I love them so much. The UFO community are some of the best people I’ve ever met in my life. Shout out to my brother Jeremy Corbell, to George Knapp, the OG, to all of the people who fly from all around the world to come to these hearings. It was so fun. I got to meet so many of them last time. Just walk the rope line as people were coming. And the excitement, the… I truly love the UFO community. Shout out to all of them.
Lex Fridman
This is the second one, I guess.
This is the second one, I guess.
Saagar Enjeti
This is the second one.
This is the second one.
Lex Fridman
Do you hope they continue happening?
Do you hope they continue happening?
Saagar Enjeti
It’s going to be a slow burn. So one of the things I always tell the guys and everybody is, “Consider how long it took to understand the sheer insanity of the CIA in the 1950s and ’60s.” So if we think back to the church committee, I forget the exact year of the church committee. I think it was in the ’70s. The entire church committee and knowledge of how the CIA and the FBI were up to all of this insane shit throughout the ’50s and ’60s is because some people broke into a warehouse, discovered some documents, got the names of programs which were able to be FOIA’d, and we were able to break open that case. It would never have happened with real transparency, like in the official process. So we owe those people a great debt. I guess I could say, now the statute of limitations has passed.
It’s going to be a slow burn. So one of the things I always tell the guys and everybody is, “Consider how long it took to understand the sheer insanity of the CIA in the 1950s and ’60s.” So if we think back to the church committee, I forget the exact year of the church committee. I think it was in the ’70s. The entire church committee and knowledge of how the CIA and the FBI were up to all of this insane shit throughout the ’50s and ’60s is because some people broke into a warehouse, discovered some documents, got the names of programs which were able to be FOIA’d, and we were able to break open that case. It would never have happened with real transparency, like in the official process. So we owe those people a great debt. I guess I could say, now the statute of limitations has passed.
My point about the UFOs is I don’t know what is real or not. I have absolute confidence and absolute ton is being hid from the American people and that all of the official explanations are bullshit. I have had the opportunity to interface with some of the whistleblowers and other… the activists in the community, people who I trust, people who have great credentials, who have no reason to lie, who have assured us that there is a lot going on behind the scenes. There has been too much misinformation and effort by the deep state to cover up this topic.
So I would ask people to keep the faith. It’s 2024 and we still don’t have all the JFK files. Everyone involved is dead. There’s no reason to let it go. Even though we basically know what happened, we don’t know. If you read that fantastic book, the Tom O’Neill book about the Manson murders, again, it took him 20 years to write that book and he still didn’t get the full story. So sometimes, it takes an extraordinarily long agonizing period of time, and I know how deeply frustrating that is. But when you think about a secret, a program and knowledge of this magnitude, it would only make sense that it would require a titanic effort to reveal a titanic secret.
Lex Fridman
You think Trump might be able to push for… aggressively break through the secrecy, let’s say, even on the JFK files?
You think Trump might be able to push for… aggressively break through the secrecy, let’s say, even on the JFK files?
Saagar Enjeti
I hope so. I have moderate confidence. RFK Jr. has pushed him to do so. I would like to think so. At the same time, I saw him got rolled last time, so I’ll hold my breath.
I hope so. I have moderate confidence. RFK Jr. has pushed him to do so. I would like to think so. At the same time, I saw him got rolled last time, so I’ll hold my breath.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think that happens? Why do you think it gets-
Why do you think that happens? Why do you think it gets-
Saagar Enjeti
Remember that whole interagency thing I told you about? That’s how it happens. That’s another thing. You’re presuming that the president has the power to declassify this stuff. I’m saying that I’m not even sure we’re there in terms of-
Remember that whole interagency thing I told you about? That’s how it happens. That’s another thing. You’re presuming that the president has the power to declassify this stuff. I’m saying that I’m not even sure we’re there in terms of-
Lex Fridman
So it’s basic stability. He basically says, “I would like to declassify JFK files.”
So it’s basic stability. He basically says, “I would like to declassify JFK files.”
And they say, “Yes, sir. We’ll get that to you in three months.” And three months comes by. And then they’re like, “Well, there’s these hurdles.”
Saagar Enjeti
Well, the way you get around it is go, “Let’s release some.” But these in particular, there’s national security secrets is a good case for not releasing them, X, Y and Z. It’s like, you get around that. You’re like, “Oh, okay. That makes sense.” Again, he’s a busy guy. He’s the president. He got way bigger shit to worry about. So that’s the problem, is that unless you have that true urgency… Look, people of immense power have tried. Everyone forgets this. John Podesta was the White House chief of staff. He is a UFO true believer in his heart. He tried. He’s talked about it. He tried, at the top level, the number two to the White House, to get the Pentagon and others to tell him what was going on, and they stonewalled him. So people need to understand what you’re up against. People are like, “How is that even possible?”
Well, the way you get around it is go, “Let’s release some.” But these in particular, there’s national security secrets is a good case for not releasing them, X, Y and Z. It’s like, you get around that. You’re like, “Oh, okay. That makes sense.” Again, he’s a busy guy. He’s the president. He got way bigger shit to worry about. So that’s the problem, is that unless you have that true urgency… Look, people of immense power have tried. Everyone forgets this. John Podesta was the White House chief of staff. He is a UFO true believer in his heart. He tried. He’s talked about it. He tried, at the top level, the number two to the White House, to get the Pentagon and others to tell him what was going on, and they stonewalled him. So people need to understand what you’re up against. People are like, “How is that even possible?”
It’s like, well, go read about the terror that LBJ and the Kennedys and others had in confronting J. Edgar Hoover. Go and read how terrified Eisenhower and some of them were of the Dulles brothers. They were scared. They knew where the power lies. So the presidency… Look, government, deep state, et cetera, they’ve been there a long time, and they know what’s happening and presidents come and go, but they stay forever. So that’s the paradigm that you’re going to have to fight against.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s a bit of a meme, but I wonder how deep the deep state is.
Yeah, it’s a bit of a meme, but I wonder how deep the deep state is.
Saagar Enjeti
Much deeper than anyone can even imagine. The worst part is, what the deep state is, it’s not even individuals. It’s actually an ideology, and ideology is the most… People often think that if we took money out of politics that it would change everything. I’m not saying it wouldn’t change everything, but it wouldn’t change a lot.
Much deeper than anyone can even imagine. The worst part is, what the deep state is, it’s not even individuals. It’s actually an ideology, and ideology is the most… People often think that if we took money out of politics that it would change everything. I’m not saying it wouldn’t change everything, but it wouldn’t change a lot.
But people are like, “Oh, so-and-so is only against universal healthcare getting paid.”
I’m like, “No, no, no. That’s not why. They actually believe it.”
Or it’s like, “Oh, so-and-so only wants to advocate for war with Iran because they’re on the payroll of AIPAC.”
And it’s like, “Well, yeah. The AIPAC trips and the money helps. But they think that actually the system itself…”
This is a very Chomsky-esque systemic critique, is that any journalist worth their salt would never have the ability to get hired in a mainstream. So he’s like, “It’s not that you’re bad in the mainstream media, it’s that anyone good is not allowed to be elevated to your position because they have an ideology.” So that is the most self-reinforcing, pernicious mechanism of them all, and that’s really Washington in a nutshell.
Lex Fridman
It’s again, a bubble, but a bubble that has a lot of power.
It’s again, a bubble, but a bubble that has a lot of power.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Yes.
Future of the Republican Party
Lex Fridman
Who do you think is the future of the Republican Party after Trump? What happens to Trumpism after Trump?
Who do you think is the future of the Republican Party after Trump? What happens to Trumpism after Trump?
Saagar Enjeti
Like you just said, Bayesian. Let’s take various theories, right? So let’s say it’s ’04, it’s Bush, Cheney. In 2004, the day after the election, I would’ve told you this. We live in a Bible belt, Jesus land America. This America wants to protect America, a war on terror against Iraq and the axis of evil, and American people who just voted for George W. Bush. So I would’ve predicted that it would’ve been somebody in that vein, and they tried that. His name was John McCain. He got blown the fuck out by Barack Obama. So I cannot sit here and confidently say.
Like you just said, Bayesian. Let’s take various theories, right? So let’s say it’s ’04, it’s Bush, Cheney. In 2004, the day after the election, I would’ve told you this. We live in a Bible belt, Jesus land America. This America wants to protect America, a war on terror against Iraq and the axis of evil, and American people who just voted for George W. Bush. So I would’ve predicted that it would’ve been somebody in that vein, and they tried that. His name was John McCain. He got blown the fuck out by Barack Obama. So I cannot sit here and confidently say.
Lex Fridman
What year would you be able to predict Obama? It was just his first time he gave the speech-
What year would you be able to predict Obama? It was just his first time he gave the speech-
Saagar Enjeti
The 2004 speech at the DNC. That was his, “We don’t live in-
The 2004 speech at the DNC. That was his, “We don’t live in-
Lex Fridman
That’s-
That’s-
Saagar Enjeti
… Black America, white America.” The John Kerry DNC speech. You honestly could not have predicted it until ’07, whenever he actually announced his campaign and activated a lot of anti-war energy. Maybe ’06. Actually, I could have said in ’06, if I was a contrarian man now, I would’ve been like, “Yeah, there’s a lot of anti-war energy. I think the next president will be somebody who’s able to vote…” The explosion of Keith Olbermann and MSNBC, it makes logical sense in hindsight. But at the same time, you’re going up against the Clinton machine who’s never lost an election. So I would’ve been afraid. I cannot confidently say. So I’ll say, if things go in different directions, if Trump is a net positive president, then I think it’ll be JD Vance, his vice president who believes in a lot of the things that I’ve talked about here today, about foreign policy restraint, about the working class, about changing Republican attitudes to the economy.
… Black America, white America.” The John Kerry DNC speech. You honestly could not have predicted it until ’07, whenever he actually announced his campaign and activated a lot of anti-war energy. Maybe ’06. Actually, I could have said in ’06, if I was a contrarian man now, I would’ve been like, “Yeah, there’s a lot of anti-war energy. I think the next president will be somebody who’s able to vote…” The explosion of Keith Olbermann and MSNBC, it makes logical sense in hindsight. But at the same time, you’re going up against the Clinton machine who’s never lost an election. So I would’ve been afraid. I cannot confidently say. So I’ll say, if things go in different directions, if Trump is a net positive president, then I think it’ll be JD Vance, his vice president who believes in a lot of the things that I’ve talked about here today, about foreign policy restraint, about the working class, about changing Republican attitudes to the economy.
He would be able to build upon that legacy in the way that George H.W. Bush was able to get elected off the back of Reagan. But H.W. Bush was fundamentally his own man. He’s a very misunderstood figure, very different than Ronald Reagan, didn’t end up working out for him, but he did get himself elected once. So that’s one path. That’s if you have a net positive Trump presidency. The other path is the ’04 path that I just laid out. If Trump does what Bush does, misinterprets his mandate, screws things up, creates chaos, and it makes it just generally annoying to live in American society, then you will see somebody in the Republican Party… Still, it could even be JD Vance because he could say, ” JD is my natural and my chosen successor,” but then he would lose an election and then he would no longer be the so-called leader of the Republican Party.
So I could see it swing in the other direction. I could see Republicans or others… Let’s say, if it’s a total disaster and we’d get down to 20% approval ratings and the economy is bad and stuff like that. Glenn Youngkin or somebody like that who’s very diametrically opposed to Donald Trump or at least aesthetically is somebody like that who could rise from the ashes. I’m just saying in terms of his aesthetic, not him per se. So there’s a variety of different directions. It’s a big question about the Republican base. A shit ton of people voted Republican now for the first time ever. So are they going to vote in party primaries? I don’t know. The traditional party primary voter is like a white boomer who’s 58, 59. Is the Latino guy in California who turned out to vote for Trump with a MAGA hat and rolling around suburban Los Angeles with that… Is he going to vote in the Republican Party? That could change. So the type of candidate themselves could come. So it’s way too early to say. We have so many variety of paths that we could go down.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think Trump is a singular figure in terms of, if you support Trump, there’s a vibe. I know Kamala has a vibe, but there’s definitely a vibe to Trump and MAGA. I think even with JD, that that’s no longer going to be there. So if JD runs and wins, that would be on principles. Because he’s a very different human being.
Yeah, I think Trump is a singular figure in terms of, if you support Trump, there’s a vibe. I know Kamala has a vibe, but there’s definitely a vibe to Trump and MAGA. I think even with JD, that that’s no longer going to be there. So if JD runs and wins, that would be on principles. Because he’s a very different human being.
Saagar Enjeti
He is so different than Trump. You can see his empathy. Remember in the VP debate when he was like, “Christ have mercy?” When Tim Walz was talking about his son? That’s not something Donald Trump’s saying, okay? It’s just not. By the way, this is my own bubble test. I have no idea how somebody listens to Trump and JD Vance is like, Trump is the guy who should be the president over him. Honestly, I don’t get it. That’s my own cards on the table. I am in too much of a bubble where my bias is to being well-spoken and being empathetic or at least being able to play empathetic and being extremely well-read about the world and thoughtful and somebody like him who’s engaged in the political process, but also has been able to retain his values and be extremely well-articulated his worldview. That’s my bias. That’s who I would want to be the president, but it’s a big country. People think differently.
He is so different than Trump. You can see his empathy. Remember in the VP debate when he was like, “Christ have mercy?” When Tim Walz was talking about his son? That’s not something Donald Trump’s saying, okay? It’s just not. By the way, this is my own bubble test. I have no idea how somebody listens to Trump and JD Vance is like, Trump is the guy who should be the president over him. Honestly, I don’t get it. That’s my own cards on the table. I am in too much of a bubble where my bias is to being well-spoken and being empathetic or at least being able to play empathetic and being extremely well-read about the world and thoughtful and somebody like him who’s engaged in the political process, but also has been able to retain his values and be extremely well-articulated his worldview. That’s my bias. That’s who I would want to be the president, but it’s a big country. People think differently.
Lex Fridman
By the way, I sure you’re bias.
By the way, I sure you’re bias.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I sometimes try to take myself out of that bubble. Maybe it’s not important to have read a book or multiples of books on history.
I sometimes try to take myself out of that bubble. Maybe it’s not important to have read a book or multiples of books on history.
Saagar Enjeti
I’m not saying everybody should be like me, but that’s my point. I’m checking myself by being like, because of who I am, that’s how I see the world, and that’s how I would choose a leader. But that is not how people vote, period. Nothing has taught me that more than this election.
I’m not saying everybody should be like me, but that’s my point. I’m checking myself by being like, because of who I am, that’s how I see the world, and that’s how I would choose a leader. But that is not how people vote, period. Nothing has taught me that more than this election.
Lex Fridman
I wish they did. I don’t know if that’s a lesson to take away. I think-
I wish they did. I don’t know if that’s a lesson to take away. I think-
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, but who are we to say? People are allowed to do what they want. I’m not going to tell somebody how to vote.
Yeah, but who are we to say? People are allowed to do what they want. I’m not going to tell somebody how to vote.
Lex Fridman
No, what I’m saying is you take everything Trump is doing everything, the whole… the dance, all of it, and add occasional saga-like references to history books. I think that’s just a better candidate.
No, what I’m saying is you take everything Trump is doing everything, the whole… the dance, all of it, and add occasional saga-like references to history books. I think that’s just a better candidate.
Saagar Enjeti
I agree with you. Listen, it’s my bias.
I agree with you. Listen, it’s my bias.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know. I don’t think that’s bias. I think that’s not a bubble thinking. I think it’s a-
I don’t know. I don’t think that’s bias. I think that’s not a bubble thinking. I think it’s a-
Saagar Enjeti
It’s amazing to me, right? Listen to the JD interview with Rogan. JD, he’ll drop obscure references to studies, to papers that have come out, essays, books. This is a very well-read, high IQ, well-thought-out individual who also has given his life to the political process and decided to deal with all the bullshit that this entire system is going to throw at you whenever you start to engage. That’s who I would want to be president, but I’m biased, so what can I say?
It’s amazing to me, right? Listen to the JD interview with Rogan. JD, he’ll drop obscure references to studies, to papers that have come out, essays, books. This is a very well-read, high IQ, well-thought-out individual who also has given his life to the political process and decided to deal with all the bullshit that this entire system is going to throw at you whenever you start to engage. That’s who I would want to be president, but I’m biased, so what can I say?
Future of the Democratic Party
Lex Fridman
I like how you keep saying you’re biased as if there’s some percent of the population who doesn’t like people to read at all. Okay. What about the future? You hinted at it the future of the Democratic Party. Did you see any talent out there that’s promising? Is it going to be Obama-like figure that just rolls out of nowhere?
I like how you keep saying you’re biased as if there’s some percent of the population who doesn’t like people to read at all. Okay. What about the future? You hinted at it the future of the Democratic Party. Did you see any talent out there that’s promising? Is it going to be Obama-like figure that just rolls out of nowhere?
Saagar Enjeti
Clinton is the better example because the Democratic Party was destroyed for 12 years. From the 1980 election to 1992. They’re 12 years out of power. In periods of that long of an era, it takes somebody literally brand new who is not tainted by the previous to convince the base that you can want and convince the country that you’re going in a new direction. So I would not put my money on anybody tainted by the Great Awakening, by TDS, by the insanity of the Trump era. There has to be somebody post that and/or somebody who is able to reform themselves. In my opinion, it will likely not be any establishment politician of today who will emerge for the future. Like I said, my dark horse is Dean. I think the Democratic base is going to give Dean a shit ton of credit, and they should, for him being out.
Clinton is the better example because the Democratic Party was destroyed for 12 years. From the 1980 election to 1992. They’re 12 years out of power. In periods of that long of an era, it takes somebody literally brand new who is not tainted by the previous to convince the base that you can want and convince the country that you’re going in a new direction. So I would not put my money on anybody tainted by the Great Awakening, by TDS, by the insanity of the Trump era. There has to be somebody post that and/or somebody who is able to reform themselves. In my opinion, it will likely not be any establishment politician of today who will emerge for the future. Like I said, my dark horse is Dean. I think the Democratic base is going to give Dean a shit ton of credit, and they should, for him being out.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 03:23:46].
[inaudible 03:23:46].
Saagar Enjeti
Look, let’s be honest, he’s a no-name Congressman from Minnesota. Nobody cared who Dean Phillips was, but just like Obama, he had courage and he came out and spoke early when it mattered. By doing that, he showed good judgment, and he showed that he’s willing to take risks. So I would hope in America’s political system that we award something like that. I do think the Democrats will reward him, but I’m not saying it’ll be him per se. But it will be a figure like that who is not nationally known, who has read the tea leaves correctly, who took guesses and did things differently than everybody else. Most of all, I’m hoping that heterodox, attitudes, ideas, behaviors by definition after a blowout, those will likely be the ones that are rewarded. So I cannot give a name, but I can just describe the circumstances for what it will look like.
Look, let’s be honest, he’s a no-name Congressman from Minnesota. Nobody cared who Dean Phillips was, but just like Obama, he had courage and he came out and spoke early when it mattered. By doing that, he showed good judgment, and he showed that he’s willing to take risks. So I would hope in America’s political system that we award something like that. I do think the Democrats will reward him, but I’m not saying it’ll be him per se. But it will be a figure like that who is not nationally known, who has read the tea leaves correctly, who took guesses and did things differently than everybody else. Most of all, I’m hoping that heterodox, attitudes, ideas, behaviors by definition after a blowout, those will likely be the ones that are rewarded. So I cannot give a name, but I can just describe the circumstances for what it will look like.
Lex Fridman
Can you imagine an amorphous figure that’s a progressive populist?
Can you imagine an amorphous figure that’s a progressive populist?
Saagar Enjeti
It would be very difficult at this point, just because a huge portion of the multiracial working class has shifted to the right, but I could see it. Look, people change their minds all the time. There are people out there who voted for Barack Obama, who’ve now voted for Donald Trump three times. So a lot can change in this country. If you make a credible case, you’ve got a track record, you speak authentically and you can try to divide the country along class lines and be authentic and real about it, maybe. I think you have a shot. I still think you’re probably going to get dinged on culture just because I think this election has really showed us how important immigration and culture is. Actually, what the left populists should pray for, and they won’t admit this, is that Trump actually solves immigration in terms of changing the status quo.
It would be very difficult at this point, just because a huge portion of the multiracial working class has shifted to the right, but I could see it. Look, people change their minds all the time. There are people out there who voted for Barack Obama, who’ve now voted for Donald Trump three times. So a lot can change in this country. If you make a credible case, you’ve got a track record, you speak authentically and you can try to divide the country along class lines and be authentic and real about it, maybe. I think you have a shot. I still think you’re probably going to get dinged on culture just because I think this election has really showed us how important immigration and culture is. Actually, what the left populists should pray for, and they won’t admit this, is that Trump actually solves immigration in terms of changing the status quo.
You knowhow in the way that the Supreme Court just ended the conversation around gay marriage? So Republicans were like, “Yeah, whatever. We support gay marriage,” because they’re like, “That’s the law of the land. It is what it is.” They should just hope that their unpopular issue is resolved by the president and thus, they just don’t have to talk about it anymore. Now, the battleground is actually favorable for them. They get to talk about the economy and abortion. So their least popular issue gets solved by the president by consensus from his mandate, and then they can run on a brand new platform for the new issues that are facing America.
Lex Fridman
All right. Let’s put our historian hat back on.
All right. Let’s put our historian hat back on.
Saagar Enjeti
Okay.
Okay.
Lex Fridman
Will the American Empire collapse one day? If it does, when it does, what would be the reason?
Will the American Empire collapse one day? If it does, when it does, what would be the reason?
Saagar Enjeti
Statistically likely. Yeah. Statistically, yes. It’s the famous Fight Club quote. It’s like, “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everything drops to zero.” And-
Statistically likely. Yeah. Statistically, yes. It’s the famous Fight Club quote. It’s like, “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everything drops to zero.” And-
Lex Fridman
I like for all the books you’ve quoted, you went to Fight Club.
I like for all the books you’ve quoted, you went to Fight Club.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, I have-
Oh, I have-
Lex Fridman
I guess the movie, right?
I guess the movie, right?
Saagar Enjeti
The book’s good though. People should read that too. In terms of why. Again, statistically the answer’s quite simple. It usually comes back to a series of unpopular wars which are pursued because of the elite’s interests. Then it usually leads to a miscalculation and not a catastrophic defeat. Normally, it comes gradually, and most of the times when these things end, the crazy part is most people who are living through end of empire have no idea that they’re living through the end of the empire. I actually think about that a lot from Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon. Actually, your episode on Rome was fantastic.
The book’s good though. People should read that too. In terms of why. Again, statistically the answer’s quite simple. It usually comes back to a series of unpopular wars which are pursued because of the elite’s interests. Then it usually leads to a miscalculation and not a catastrophic defeat. Normally, it comes gradually, and most of the times when these things end, the crazy part is most people who are living through end of empire have no idea that they’re living through the end of the empire. I actually think about that a lot from Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon. Actually, your episode on Rome was fantastic.
People should go listen to that. So there you go. Another really good one, I like to think a lot about the British Empire and what eventually led to that collapse. Nobody in 1919 said the British Empire has just collapsed. Basically, nobody still thought that. They were like, “Yeah, the first World War is horrible. But actually, we came out of this okay. We still have India. We still have all these African colonies and all that, but long periods of servitude, of debt to the United States, of degradation, of social upheaval, of Bolshevism, of American industrial might.” And next thing you know, you find yourself at Potsdam and Churchill’s like, “Holy shit, I have barely any power in this room.” So revolutions happen slowly and then all at once. So could you really put a real pin in the end of the British Empire? It took almost 40 years for it to end.
So America’s empire will eventually end either from rising geopolitical competition, likely China. Could be India. Nobody knows. It will likely be because of being overstretched of an elite capture, is usually the reason why, and a misreading of what made your original society work in the first place. That is one where… Honestly, all three of those things will happen all at once, and it will happen over an extremely long period of time. It’s very difficult to predict. I would not bet against America right now. I think we have a lot of fundamental strengths. It’s such a unique and dynamic country. It really is fucking crazy. Every time I travel the world, as much as I love all these different places, I go, “Man, I love the United States so much.” You’ll love it more when you leave. I really believe that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and it’s nice to remember how quickly the public opinion shifts. We’re very dynamic and adaptable, which annoys me. I understand that’s part of the political discourse saying ,”If Trump wins, it’s the end of America. If Kamala wins, it’s the end of America.”
Yeah, and it’s nice to remember how quickly the public opinion shifts. We’re very dynamic and adaptable, which annoys me. I understand that’s part of the political discourse saying ,”If Trump wins, it’s the end of America. If Kamala wins, it’s the end of America.”
Saagar Enjeti
So stupid. Yeah.
So stupid. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But I-
But I-
Saagar Enjeti
It’s so dumb.
It’s so dumb.
Lex Fridman
I understand that the radical nature of that discourse is necessary to, who mentioned [inaudible 03:29:15]-
I understand that the radical nature of that discourse is necessary to, who mentioned [inaudible 03:29:15]-
Saagar Enjeti
To drive out votes.
To drive out votes.
Lex Fridman
To drive up votes.
To drive up votes.
Saagar Enjeti
I like to think about Americans in 1866. I cannot imagine going through a war where some x percent… I think it was like two or 3% or whatever. The entire population was just killed. Our president, who was this visionary genius, who we were blessed to have, is assassinated at Ford’s Theater immediately after the surrender of Lee Andrew Johnson, who’s a bumbling fucktard, is the one who is in charge. We are having all these insane crises over internal management while we’re also trying to decide this new order in the south and how to bring these people back into the union. I would’ve despaired in that year. I would’ve been like, “It’s over. This is it. The war,” I’d be like, “was it worth anything?” If Andrew Johnson is going to be doing this or even in the South, I can’t even imagine for what they were going through too.
I like to think about Americans in 1866. I cannot imagine going through a war where some x percent… I think it was like two or 3% or whatever. The entire population was just killed. Our president, who was this visionary genius, who we were blessed to have, is assassinated at Ford’s Theater immediately after the surrender of Lee Andrew Johnson, who’s a bumbling fucktard, is the one who is in charge. We are having all these insane crises over internal management while we’re also trying to decide this new order in the south and how to bring these people back into the union. I would’ve despaired in that year. I would’ve been like, “It’s over. This is it. The war,” I’d be like, “was it worth anything?” If Andrew Johnson is going to be doing this or even in the South, I can’t even imagine for what they were going through too.
They have to go home and their entire cities are burned to the ground, and they’re trying to readjust and their entire economy and way of life is overthrown in five years. That’s an insane time to be alive. What do we know? They worked out. By 1890s or so, there were people shaking hands, union and there’s a cool video on YouTube actually of FDR who is addressing some of the last Gettysburg veterans. I think it was the 75th anniversary or whatever. You can literally see these old men shaking hands across the stone wall. It gives me hope. Yeah.
Hope
Lex Fridman
Let’s linger on that hope. What is the source of optimism you have for the 21st century, for the century beyond that, for human civilization in general? It’s easy to learn cynical lessons from history, right?
Let’s linger on that hope. What is the source of optimism you have for the 21st century, for the century beyond that, for human civilization in general? It’s easy to learn cynical lessons from history, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
The shit eventually goes wrong, but sometimes it doesn’t. So what gives you hope?
The shit eventually goes wrong, but sometimes it doesn’t. So what gives you hope?
Saagar Enjeti
I think that the of what makes humanity great and has for a long time are best expressed in the American character, and that despite all of our problems, that as a country with our ethos, a lot of the stuff we talked about today, individualism, the frontier mindset, the blessings of geography, the blessings of our economy, of the way that we’re able to just incorporate different cultures and the best of each and put them all together, give us the best opportunity to succeed and to accomplish awesome things. We’re the country that put a man on the moon, which is the epitome of the human spirit. I hope to see more of that. I think last time I was here, I shouted out, and I love Antarctic exploration. I’ve read basically every book that there is on the exploration of Antarctica. One of the reasons I love to do so is because there is no reason to care about Antarctica. None.
I think that the of what makes humanity great and has for a long time are best expressed in the American character, and that despite all of our problems, that as a country with our ethos, a lot of the stuff we talked about today, individualism, the frontier mindset, the blessings of geography, the blessings of our economy, of the way that we’re able to just incorporate different cultures and the best of each and put them all together, give us the best opportunity to succeed and to accomplish awesome things. We’re the country that put a man on the moon, which is the epitome of the human spirit. I hope to see more of that. I think last time I was here, I shouted out, and I love Antarctic exploration. I’ve read basically every book that there is on the exploration of Antarctica. One of the reasons I love to do so is because there is no reason to care about Antarctica. None.
There’s nothing down there. Zero. Going to the South Pole is a truly useless exercise. Yet, we went. We went twice. Actually, two people went there in a span of five weeks, and they competed to do so. The spirit that propelled Amundsen and Scott’s expedition and people like Shackleton who’s like… If you were to ask me my hero of all heroes, it’s Ernest Shackleton. It’s because his spirit, I think, lives on in the United States. It unfortunately died in Great Britain. Interestingly enough, the Brits even understand that. They’re like, “It’s very interesting how popular Shackleton is in America.” Even though he was Irish and he was a British subject, to me, he’s a spiritual American. I think that his spirit lives on within us and has always been here to a certain extent. Everywhere else, I think it’s dying. But here, I love it here.
There’s so many cool things about America. People move around all the time. They buy new houses. They start families. There’s no other place that you can just reset your whole life in the same country. It’s wild. You can reinvent yourself. You can go broke. You can get rich. You can go back and forth multiple times, and there’s nowhere else where you have enough freedom and opportunity to pursue that. We definitely have a lot of problems, but I’ve traveled enough of the world now to know that it’s a special place, and that gives me a lot of hope.
Lex Fridman
I wish I could do a Bostonian accent of, “We do these things, not because they’re easy, but because they’re hard.”
I wish I could do a Bostonian accent of, “We do these things, not because they’re easy, but because they’re hard.”
Saagar Enjeti
Because they’re hard. Thank you.
Because they’re hard. Thank you.
Lex Fridman
That’s so true. The Scott Irish got us. Well, listen, I’m a huge fan of you, Saagar. I hope to see you in the White House interviewing the president-
That’s so true. The Scott Irish got us. Well, listen, I’m a huge fan of you, Saagar. I hope to see you in the White House interviewing the president-
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. There you go. That’s right.
Yeah. There you go. That’s right.
Lex Fridman
And-
And-
Saagar Enjeti
That’s the only situation you’re going to see me in the White House. Yeah. Yeah.
That’s the only situation you’re going to see me in the White House. Yeah. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
… front row and just talking free. I would love to live in a country and in the world where it’s you who gets the talk to the press secretary, to the president, because I think you’re one of the good ones, as far as journalists go, as far as human beings. So I hope to see you in there, and I hope you get to ask a question that-
… front row and just talking free. I would love to live in a country and in the world where it’s you who gets the talk to the press secretary, to the president, because I think you’re one of the good ones, as far as journalists go, as far as human beings. So I hope to see you in there, and I hope you get to ask a question that-
Saagar Enjeti
That ends up in a book.
That ends up in a book.
Lex Fridman
That ends up in a good history book.
That ends up in a good history book.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. Well, likewise, I’m a huge fan of yours. For anybody out there who’s interested, I compiled a list and I will go and retroactively edit it. Just go to saagarenjeti.io. I created a newsletter with a website that has all the links to all the books I’m going to talk about here.
Absolutely. Well, likewise, I’m a huge fan of yours. For anybody out there who’s interested, I compiled a list and I will go and retroactively edit it. Just go to saagarenjeti.io. I created a newsletter with a website that has all the links to all the books I’m going to talk about here.
Lex Fridman
Beautiful. The hundreds of books that were mentioned here. All right, brother. Thank you so much for talking today.
Beautiful. The hundreds of books that were mentioned here. All right, brother. Thank you so much for talking today.
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you.
Thank you.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Saagar Enjeti. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, let me leave you with some words from Voltaire.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Saagar Enjeti. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, let me leave you with some words from Voltaire.
“History is the study of all the world’s crime.”
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Javier Milei: President of Argentina – Freedom, Economics, and Corruption | Lex Fridman Podcast #453
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #453 with Javier Milei.
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We discuss all of this in detail, both the successes and the challenges. His depth of knowledge of economic principles, metrics and data was truly impressive and refreshing to hear from a world leader. But even bigger than the economic transformation of Argentina, Javier represents the universal fight against government corruption and the fight for freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, and freedom of speech. He has many critics, many of whom a part of the corrupt establishment he’s seeking to dismantle, but many are simply Argentinian citizens, scared of the pain his radical policies may bring, at least in the short term. But whether one disagrees with his methods or not, no one can deny that his presidency marks one of the most ambitious attempts at economic transformation in modern history, and that Javier Milei is truly a force of nature, combining the rigor of an economist with the passion of a revolutionary in the fight for freedom of a nation he loves. Argentina is one of my favorite countries, so I sincerely hope he succeeds.
This interview was conducted with the President speaking Spanish and me speaking English with an interpreter simultaneously translating. We make the episode available overdubbed and subtitled in both English and Spanish, thanks to our great friends at ElevenLabs. If you’re watching on YouTube, you can switch between English and Spanish by clicking the gear icon, selecting audio track, and then choosing the language. Same with the captions. If you’re watching on X, I’ll post both Spanish and English versions separately. If you’re watching on Spotify or listening elsewhere, I’ll probably only post the English version. This is a first time for me doing something like this in a foreign language. It was challenging, but illuminating. I hope to talking to many world leaders for two to three hours in this way, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Xi Jinping. I want to explore who they are, how they think, and how they hope to help their country and humanity flourish. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Javier Milei.
So basically, in economics, that means you get increasing returns, and the presence of increasing returns implies the existence of monopolies, concentrated structures, and according to traditional neoclassical economic theory, the presence of monopolies and concentrated structures is not a good thing. But at the same time, one could see that living standards had increased tremendously and that middle-income people ended up living far better than emperors did in the Roman era, and the population had gone from having 95% of people in extreme poverty to less than 10%. And in that context, the question was, how it could be that something that had lifted so many people out of poverty, that had improved human conditions so much, could be something bad for economic theory, meaning something was not right.
So in that context, I remember that one of the people who worked on my team suggested I read an article by Murray Newton Rothbard called Monopoly and Competition. I remember reading it like it was today, and after reading it carefully, I said, “Everything I’ve taught about market structure in the last 20 years in courses on microeconomics is wrong.” This caused a very strong internal commotion in me. So I called this person who used work with me, and they recommended a place to buy Austrian School of Economics books, and I remember I bought at least 20 or 30 books, which I went to pick up one Saturday afternoon. And when I visited the bookstore, I was fascinated by all the stuff they had there.
So I went back the next day and I started calculating how much money I needed to pay for my dog’s food. That’s my four-legged child, and how much I needed to spend on the taxi fare and food. And then with what I have left, I spent all of it on more books. And then I started to read very intensively, and I remember for example, the experience of reading Human Action by Mises, and this was a book that I didn’t know about. And I remember that on the following weekend, I started to read this book right from the first page, and I didn’t stop until I finished it, and that was a true revolution in my head. And having the chance to read Austrian authors like Rothbard, Mises, Hayek, Hoppe and Jesus Huerta de Soto, or others like Juan Ramon Rallo, Philipp Bagus and Walter Block, for example.
That was very inspirational, and at one point I got the opportunity to read related to the works of Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:07:38], and I also had the pleasure and honor to meet him. And today we are actually friends. So that paved the way for me to approach the ideas of freedom. And another book that was a very significant influence and impact on me was the Principles of Political Economics by Menger. It was truly eye-opening, or let’s say, for reading Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, these were things that really challenged all of my former thinking. I had a vague idea and poor about the Austrian School. The only thing I had read about the Austrian School until then had been Money and Time, a very good book by Garrison. But now that I understand a little bit more about Austrian economics, I know that it was rather poor. This doesn’t mean that the book isn’t good, but there were a whole lot of things to read that ended up being truly fascinating.
Now, real life poses a whole lot of restraints, and some of those you can lift, and those restrictions and others you can’t. So in real life, I am a minarchist. I advocate for minimizing state size. I try to remove as many regulations as possible. In fact, that is what I used to say during my campaign, and let’s say, that is what I’m now carrying out. We have just carried out the largest structural reform in Argentine history. It is a structural reform that is eight times larger than Menem’s, which had been the largest structural reform in history. And we did that with 15% of the representatives and 10% of the senators. Furthermore, we have a deregulation ministry where basically every day we eliminate between one and five regulations. On the other hand, we have 3,200 additional structural reforms pending, to the point that the day we finish all these reforms, we will be the freest country on the planet, with the consequences they have in terms of well-being. Think about this, when Ireland started market reforms just over 40 years ago, it was the poorest country in Europe. Today, its GDP per capita is 50% higher than that of the United States. So I have a current situation, and what I am constantly looking for, whether from my academic works and my outreach notes and books, is the world we have today, that every day we are closer, that every day we gain more freedom because there are some very interesting things here. First, I would like to quote Milton Friedman. There is a moment when they do an interview with Milton Friedman and they ask him about liberals, and then he says that there are three types of liberals. There are the classical liberals where, for example, Adam Smith or Milton Friedman himself could fit. Some say that Hayek could fit into that category. For me, Hayek is a minarchist.
Then you have the minarchists where you could clearly find in that place Mises, Hayek. One could find in philosophical terms Nozick and basically Ayn Rand. And at one point, Milton Friedman, based on his own son, he says, “But if you look closely, there are some who are anarchists.” Let’s say, probably from my point of view, the person who has been the greatest inspiration in my life is essentially Murray Newton Rothbard. So therefore, there are two dimensions. One is where I want to go, and the topic is where I stand. So the most important thing is to try each day to advance further toward that ideal of anarcho-capitalism. In that sense, sometimes we face strong and harsh criticism regarding that ideal vision. I think that’s the nirvana fallacy. If you compare yourself against paradise, everything is horrible and miserable, but you don’t live in paradise. You live on earth. Basically, what you need to understand is something called the state conditions. Let’s suppose that you don’t like rectangular tables. You prefer circular tables. Now the reality is, I have only a few hours until I go and catch my flight and the table is rectangular. You like a circular table, a round one, but there isn’t one. What you have is a rectangular table. So either we do the interview here or we just can’t do it. So what do you do? You adapt to the current conditions. This is what there is now. So then you have some restrictions that you can change and others that you cannot. The idea is to modify all the ones that can be changed in the short term, and start working on those that can be modified in the medium or long-term. For example, if you really like round tables, perhaps the next interview we may do at a round table. We’re going to try and solve it, but today it’s something that we couldn’t possibly solve. So that’s basically the idea, right?
Let’s say it’s about understanding that some restrictions you can change, others you can, and there are institutional restrictions too. There are many anarcho-capitalists who are dedicated to criticizing, and incredibly, they do so with more violence towards liberals, and many of them actually criticize me, which truly make no sense because it is precisely the nirvana fallacy but the reality is that… Look, in Argentina, for example, the most popular sport is soccer. When you go to watch an Argentina match, it is beautiful. The stands are full, and they’re all painted with sky blue and white colors. There is a lot of joy. People sing songs that are very fun, that are very distinctive. It’s very much part of Argentine folklore, so to speak. But you see that beautiful show is external. That is to say it does not determine the outcome. You place the ball in the middle of the field, and no matter how much people shout, the ball doesn’t move. The one who moves the ball and scores the goals is Messi.
So what do I mean? If you don’t get involved and don’t get into it, no, you don’t do anything. So what do I know is that there are many liberals, libertarians and anarcho-capitalists who are really useless because all they do is criticize, let’s say, those of us who want to lead the world toward the ideas of freedom. And what they don’t realize is that power is a zero-sum game, and if we don’t have it, then the left will have it. Therefore, if you level your harshest criticism at those in your own ranks, you end up being subservient to socialism probably. And also, for instance, you have cases of strong hypocrisy, let’s say. I have seen cases of agorists. It’s the anarcho- capitalists who criticize Rothbard because he said that you have to get into politics, otherwise the socialists will advance. And it’s interesting because some of them, I have seen them criticizing, proposing agorism, and I remember one of them, one day the police showed up and honestly, he was peeing himself.
So it’s very easy to criticize, propose, and suggest, but if he was truly such an agonist, he should have been willing to endure going to jail. However, when it was time to face the consequences of the idea he was promoting, he froze, wet his pants and ended up, let’s say, accepting all the restrictions because clearly it was better to be out of jail than in jail. But in doing so, he sold out his ideas. So it seems to me that no, not taking into account the restrictions of the situation, only serves to be functional to socialism because all it does is strike against one’s own.
Now, later I will get deeper into that discussion, and the reality is that we had a fiscal deficit, which amounted to 15% of GDP. Five points were in the Treasury, 10 points were in the Central Bank, which was endogenous monetary issuance. And the reality is that we also had interest-bearing liabilities at the Central Bank, equivalent to four monetary bases maturing in one day, meaning we could have quintupled the amount of money in one day. We had peso-denominated maturities, amounting to the equivalent of $90 billion. The Central Bank had negative net currency foreign reserves, minus $12 billion. We had commercial debts in the Central Bank equivalent to $50 billion. There were company dividends held back amounting to $10 billion. Therefore, if we had instantly opened up… You see, I say we are liberal libertarians. We are not liberal fools. That’s what some anarchist liberals suggested, meaning that we basically open everything on the first day.
So in that context, of course, if we had done that, we would’ve encountered hyperinflation. Therefore, that would have led to the number of poor people being around 95% and probably, and by December, the Peronist party would have organized supermarket’s lootings, and would’ve done all sorts of things, and would’ve probably been ousted. And by the first part of the year, the Peronists would’ve gone back to office. So to us, it was crucial to end fiscal deficit.
One of the things we promised during the campaign had been to reduce the number of ministries, and indeed we reduced to less than half the number of ministries because we went to nine ministries, today we have eight. We have also laid off a large number of civil employees. Today, I can say that we’ve already dismissed about 50,000 of them, and we practically don’t renew any contracts unless the positions are absolutely necessary. At the same time, we have stopped public works and we have eliminated discretionary transfers to the provinces. We have also diluted public sector wages. Also, we have eliminated economic subsidies by restoring utility rates to the right levels. And in that, let’s say, in this context, we achieved fiscal balance as far as the Treasury is concerned. This is very important because in the last 123 years, Argentina had a deficit for 113 of them, and in the 10 years it did not have a deficit because it was not paying the debt. So that was absolutely false, and they told us it would be impossible to do that.
We had planned to do so within a year, and they said it wasn’t possible to adjust by more than one percentage point, and we achieved fiscal balance in the month of January. That is the first month of administration. At the same time, we also cut social plans linked to intermediation. This is very important because we knew we were going to make a very tough adjustment, and we knew that this was going to have a court in social terms, and we knew that we had to offer support during the first month, I mean, the first quarter and second quarter in office. One of the things we did was to eliminate what are known as poverty managers. That is intermediaries. Basically, people have a guard through which they receive assistance, but it happens that they had to provide a counter service, and that counter service was verified by a group called the piqueteros.
So in that context, when they were going to sign, the counter service took away half of the money. So by removing that payoff, they stopped extorting them, stopped stealing their money, and with the same amount of money, they received double the resources. And of course, we also provided an additional boost. So let’s say that this is related to the five adjustment points in the Treasury. Now, what happens, as we began to achieve fiscal balance and no longer needed to issue money to finance ourselves, and as we also met interest payments and some capital repayments, one of the things that happened is that the debt market began to be recreated. So we were able to take debt out of the Central Bank and transfer it to the Treasury where it should have always been, and that meant an adjustment of approximately 10% of GDP. Everyone said this would be impossible and couldn’t be fixed.
Essentially, what we did was implement a fiscal adjustment at the Central Bank, amounting to 10% of GDP. So if you ask me, it’s clear that we have not only made the biggest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity, because we made a fiscal adjustment of 15 points of the GDP, but also most of that went back to the people as less seigniorage, as a lower inflation rate. It’s true that we temporarily raised the country tax, but we lowered it in September, and now in December, we’re going to eliminate it. Today, for example, we also announced that in December we are eliminating import taxes. In fact, in that regard, what you have is that we return to the people 13 and a half points of GDP because the real tax burden is the size of the state. So while back in December we were discussing hyperinflation, today we are discussing 30-year loans.
In other words, all those resources that the national government used to take are now back in the private sector. And that’s what has allowed it to be very dynamic. And this has two very strong impacts. The first one is that if you look at wholesale inflation, it went down from 54% to 2%. So it went down by 27 times. It was divided into 27. So we had inflation at the rate of 17,000% annually, and it’s now close to about 28% a year, but it’s not only that. You could consider consumer inflation, the latest consumer inflation rate was 2.7%. Now, it happens that we essentially, due to a matter that is related to the Central Bank’s balance sheets and also due to the debt stocks, we still have controls in place and we are eliminating restrictions, day by day. Now, the interesting thing is that we have a 2% monthly devaluation standard, and there’s international inflation of course, which means that you then have to subtract two and a half points from the inflation observed by the consumer.
This indicates that inflation in Argentina, the true inflation, not the induced one, but the actual monetary inflation is 0.2% per month. At 0.2% per month, this equates to 2.4% annually. What I’m saying is, the original discussion was about whether inflation could reach 17,000%. Now we are bringing inflation down to levels of 2.5% annually, and that is amazing. And we achieved this by considering a number of factors. The first one is that we did not experience a previous hyperinflation, which would’ve simplified the process of implementing a stabilization program. Typically, when hyperinflation occurs, monetary assets are diluted, leading to a natural restoration of demand. And besides, we did not resort to any expropriation. For example, before the Convertibility plan, which was the most successful program in Argentina’s history, Argentina experienced two instances of hyperinflation. During Alfonsin’s administration, inflation reached 5,000%, and under Menem was 1,200%.
Additionally, there was the BONEX plan, under which debt was exchanged on a compulsory basis. In other words, what we did instead was clean up the Central Bank balance sheet. So with that, we cleaned up the Central Bank’s balance sheet. We cleared a loss of $45 billion, all voluntarily. And the most amazing thing is that we did it in just six months, and at the same time, we have not controlled prices.
And in fact, there is an article called Passing the Buck, which is by Gerardo della Paolera, Bózzoli, and Irigoin that demonstrates that Menem’s first government was the best government in history. And basically, it argues two things in the success of the stabilization of the convertibility program. So if you take a closer look, when you examine it carefully, when you account for all these factors, our disinflation process is actually much more genuine. And not only that, it’s also much deeper. We are restored freedoms to Argentinians while simultaneously implementing a structural reform eight times larger. And we accomplished this with only with 15% of the representatives, 10% of the senators, and within the first six months of government. In other words, our deregulation agenda continues daily and we still have 3,200 structural reforms pending. This will ultimately make Argentina the freest country in the world.
Moreover, to have a sense of magnitude, the reforms that we already have made with the executive order 7023, and with the basis law, we have actually jumped 90 places in terms of economic freedom. What this means is that today, Argentina has institutions similar to those of Germany, France, Italy, and we obviously want this to continue. And let’s say we are going to surpass no doubt the levels of economic freedom that Ireland reached in its best moment. And not only that, we’re going to exceed the levels of economic freedom of Australia, New Zealand, and Switzerland. We are undoubtedly going to be the freest country in the world.
And this means that thanks to what we’ve done today, we are on a path that allows us to multiply our per capita GDP by 2.5 times when you apply the relevant correction. And this of course is something very interesting because it implies a huge increase in well-being. And furthermore, today the Argentinian economy is already strongly and amazingly recovering. And we can say analysts’ hypotheses were suggesting that next year we will be growing between five and 6%. Today, JP Morgan has now corrected or let’s say revised the projections upwards. And besides, when we normalized the price situation, the true poverty rate came up and it was 57% in January. Today it is at 46%, meaning we lowered poverty by 11 percentage points. Let’s say, I mean, it seems truly like a miracle. And not only that, but actually not a single job was lost in the process.
When it comes to all of this inflation reduction process, people said that our economy and economic activity would collapse. And actually when you look at the de-seasonalized data, you see that in August there was a recovery that took us back to December levels, to December levels. That means that in the year, we made the largest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity. We will end up with less inflation, fewer poor people, better real wages, and additionally, a GDP higher than what we started with.
And if you look at it in dollars, I can assure you that the numbers are phenomenal because basically today the dollar is below the levels we had when we took office. So the reality is that in all of this, when you take my popularity levels and the government’s acceptance levels, today they are above the moment. We assumed office if you know that the moment of maximum popularity is when you take office. Therefore this means that far from resting on our laurels with this, we’re going for more reforms. We’re going to deepen the reforms. And I tell you, we won’t stop until Argentina is the freest country in the world.
Furthermore, a recent work by an Argentinian economist named Juan Pablo Nicolini was presented at the central bank’s monetary meetings and he works at the Federal Reserve. And it’s interesting because he shows that only on the basis of what we have done in fiscal matters it ensures that in the span of 10 years we can double the GDP per capita, meaning that Argentina could grow at rates of 7% annually, which is very much, very much, and that has strong consequences in terms of improving quality of life, reducing poverty, reducing indigence. Therefore, if during the worst moment our image didn’t suffer and we stayed strong in our ideas, now that everything is working much better, why should we change?
On the contrary, we are ready to redouble the bet, to redouble our efforts because we’ve done things that no one else has done. I will give you an example. There’s something that seems trivial, but there’s what’s called the single paper ballot. Argentina used to vote with huge ballots, which were above all very costly. And that reform, it never… Let’s say it wasn’t done because it always harmed the ruling party. So everyone talked about going to the single paper ballot, but no one did it when they were in power. They didn’t want to implement it because they preferred to commit fraud or use some kind of trickery to avoid applying that rule that makes the election more competitive. Well, what’s interesting, we sent that law and it was approved.
What’s more? Now we are finishing with the open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries because it was a mechanism by which politics was also stealing. We are eliminating the financing of political parties. If you look, we have reduced the fiscal pressure by 15 points to the Argentinians. We are restoring freedoms with a deep set of structural and regulatory reforms that is I think that any sensible liberal could perceive. We are already delivering a wonderful government. In fact, it’s the best government in the history of Argentina. If the best had been that of Menem, we’ve already outpaced him.
I’ll try to explain it with an example that I think clarifies what’s happening in Argentina. Argentina was an economy that had a total price controls. It had a fiscal deficit which was financed through money printing. Just for you to give you an idea, in the last year, Argentina financed 13 points of the gross domestic product with money printing. In other words, a real disaster. So that situation provoked this artificially demand and puts pressure on prices. The issue is that price controls are applied additionally over the prices that they enter the price index with which inflation was… I’m not saying they were lying about it. It was distorted.
And since Argentina measures poverty and indigence by income line, then what happens? That distorted the true levels of poverty, of course. But that’s not the only effect. I mean, let’s say the real poverty levels were higher, quite a bit higher than those shown by the previous government, which showed them at 41% and also did so on a six-monthly basis. So if you, let’s say, have a growing trend, they are actually leaving you a bomb and you don’t see it because let’s say basically the indicator was measured with a delayed form. But not only that, imagine that you are also given… You are in the middle of an island alone and they give you $1 million. What can you do with that? You cannot do anything because you cannot buy anything. It is the same as if someone tells you that the price of glasses is $10, but when you want to buy it, it’s not available.
Actually, there’s a joke told by an Argentinian professor named Juan Carlos de Pablo, who says that a man goes to a bazaar and asks for a vase. Then he says to him, “Well, I want that vase. How much would you charge me?” Then he says, “$5,000.”
“Oh, okay, $5,000. But why $5,000 if across the street it’s 1,000?” He says, “Well, go buy it across the street for 1,000.”
“Ah, there’s none for 1,000.”
“Well then, here when there’s more, it’ll also cost 1,000.” In other words, prices at which they are available. So what happens? When you are faced with that situation, the supermarket shelves were empty. So what was the point of having a price at which you couldn’t buy anything? You left those prices. The shelves were empty. So the statistics showed that you were much better, but the reality is you couldn’t buy anything. You couldn’t make it happen.
So if you left the situation as it was, people were going to starve because they couldn’t buy anything. Yes, they had a certain amount of money that could supposedly buy certain goods, but those goods were not available. What is the only thing you can do to save people? Make the prices transparent and allow products to reappear. Well, when you make the prices transparent, you also make transparent the cost of the basic food basket and the total basic basket, meaning the poverty line… Sorry, the indigence line and the poverty line respectively. And when you do that, clearly you will see a jump in poverty. That brought poverty up to 57%.
Now, Argentina found its activity floor in the month of April. From that moment, Argentina began to invent a cyclical recovery. Real wages have been growing every month above inflation. Therefore, nominal wages are beating inflation. In fact, we are already at level similar to those we had in November. The same goes for pensions.
Moreover, also, let’s say there is a rebound in activity due to the recovery of the stock cycle. Therefore, this is also contributing to more and better-paid jobs. In fact, this is so strong and evident that the wages growing the most are in the informal sector. This means that poverty and extreme poverty are decreasing much faster than we imagined. But not only that, by eliminating inflation, you remove the inflationary tax, but the real burden is the fiscal deficit, which was 15 points of the GDP.
Okay, we temporarily raised the country tax, now we lower it, but we return that to the Argentinians. We gave back 15 points of the GDP. Not only that, but also when you eliminate inflation, you remove the distortion of relative prices. Therefore, the allocation of resources is much better. Not only that, but also with the strong fiscal adjustment we made, we have reduced the country risk from 3000 basis points to 770. Today, Fitch raised Argentina’s rating to CCC. So what do I mean? That translates into a lower country risk and interest rates. And that generates an increase in investment, also generates an increase in consumption.
In other words, the Argentinian economy is currently in an absolutely flourishing moment. And how is that sustained in the long term? With structural reforms which we implement daily, deregulating the economy and introducing new laws that free Argentinians from the many oppressive measures that have burdened it over the past 100 years.
In fact, when we did that, two days later, one of the most renowned and influential Piqueteros called for a demonstration. He claimed that 50,000 people would attend because he was actually expecting 100,000. So he wanted to showcase it as a success. And so then let’s say with the decision made in human capital to cut their funding, the anti-blockade protocol was also enacted, where those who blocked the streets wouldn’t receive welfare benefits.
And those who broke the law would go to jail. All of that. And also we were informing this through transportation channels. Well, in that march, they expected to have 100,000 people there. And actually it turned out to be 3,000 people. And from that point on, they didn’t block the streets anymore.
We also evidently put an end to that corruption. One of the things that also generated a lot of corruption was public works. Another thing that led to significant acts of corruption were the discretionary transfers to provinces. In general, these transfers were made to the provinces with accounting as obscure as possible. So the national government, in collusion with the governors let’s say, the money ended up being used for other things. Not only that, with which we have already done many things.
Furthermore, the ministry of human capital is always filing complaints in court. Not in the media, in court. Acts of corruption like never before in Argentine history. Not only that, but also in terms of condemning corruption. That is, we have done, for example, two days ago, it was condemned, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner got a sentence for corruption, I mean, due to corruption. And the next day, that is yesterday, we took away their privileged pensions.
At the same time, we are, for example, we have discovered that Kirchnerism used disability pensions for acts of corruption. For example, there is a city that has more disability pensions than people. In other words, to give you an idea of the things being done in Argentina.
And also in Argentina, we have restored freedom to the judiciary. We do not pressure the judiciary. And this is so true that during my government, not only was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner convicted, but also the two terrorist attacks carried out by Iran were condemned. So if there is a government that is truly fighting against corruption, it is us. Not only that, but also with each deregulation, it is a privilege that we take away either from a politician, a prebendary company, or a power group. That is also very powerful. No one in Argentina has ever fought against corruption the way we have. In fact, I will move on to something that is deeply corrupt and one of my great battles, the corruption of the media and social media. That is to say, I removed the official advertising. That’s why you will see that even though we generate wonderful news, every week in large quantity, the media speak terribly. In other words, they demand to have a monopoly on the microphone. That is they are entitled to insult, hurt, offend, and they don’t want anyone to bother them, and they expect me not to even respond. That’s why a large part of journalism in Argentina hates the X Network. And that’s why the liberal libertarians love the X network, because we can all say what we want.
However, let’s say these supposed journalists who defend freedom of expression, actually what they want is to censor the ideas they don’t like. And of course, because they are leftists, because they are wokes, because they can’t stand the competition, because if they had to fight face-to-face, hand to hand, on a level playing field, when it comes to ideas, they would lose because they were a failure in the economic, social, and cultural aspects. And also, we must not forget that those murderers called socialists killed 150 million people. So they clearly cannot fight on equal terms. Therefore, they demand that social networks have censorship and that the truth cannot be told to them. Because when you tell a socialist the truth, they cry, claiming it’s hate speech. No, it’s not hate speech. It’s that you are useless people who have ruined the planet. They have made the planet much worse.
And fortunately today, thanks to social media, especially due to the enormous and brave work of Elon Musk and the role of Twitter, today X, allows information to flow, which makes it possible, let’s say, to expose politicians and also expose the media. And that’s why journalists in Argentina are so violent. Why? Because before they could, for instance, a journalist went and for example, he would go to a person and he would throw a folder at them and say, “If you don’t give me X amount of money, I am going to publish all of this and tarnish your reputation.” And I know for a fact a case of a journalist who carried out this extortion twice to a businessman, that businessman told him that he wasn’t going to pay. And evidently the journalist did it. Obviously they went to court, there was a trial, and that journalist lost both times. But that process is very slow. And in the meantime, they smeared.
So since the justice system takes a long time, so what is the problem? The problem is that in the meantime, your life got dirtied. So why can’t journalists do all this? Well, that’s why they dislike X. They dislike social media. They dislike the new form of communication because it took away their monopoly over the microphone. And by taking away the monopoly over the microphone, it removed the economic benefits of extortion.
So clearly, that’s another battle I’m fighting. You read a newspaper in Argentina, and 85% of what you read is a lie. That is to say the fundamental characteristic of most journalists, not all, but the vast majority of journalists in Argentina with some honorable exceptions, is that they are liars, slanderers, and defamers. And if the monopoly they demand were still in place that they want to reign again, I have no doubt that they will demand money in exchange for silence, because that’s what they are. They are extortionists, they are thieves, they are corrupt. And then of course, obviously when you take away a privilege from a sector, they get upset. Well, welcome to freedom.
Well, it’s no coincidence that they killed 150 million human beings. So what happened then? The official fall of the wall in the year 1989 made it clear that socialism had failed. In that context, the socialists, they moved the discussion of class struggle in economics and took it to other areas. So for example, socialism or what is of the 21st century or cultural Marxism or post-Marxism, whatever definition you want, is to take class struggle to different aspects of life.
For example, one of the aspects of life where you, let’s say, have this is in gender ideology. I mean, it’s incredible because the first ones to defend equality before the law were the liberals. The first to defend women’s rights were the liberals. Jeremy Bentham in the year 1750 was the first to demand equality before the law for women. I mean the cause of equality, equality before the law for women and equality of rights. The first ones who advocated for this were the liberals, did you know? However, what does the left do? They just go on to radicalize it. And then it moves to what is called female chauvinism.
Female chauvinism is, let’s say, the fight against males. And then, I mean, how do they do it? They do it by assigning rights. But when you assign a right, someone has to pay for it. And that has consequences. And in general, let’s say this always happens, the consequences are that the results are worse than what you had before. I mean, in any state intervention, the subsequent result is often worse than what you originally had. So that’s one thing. And not only that, but the other side of this is the environmental agenda, which sets man against nature involving all aspects of environmentalism and everything related to climate change.
In other words, they can’t stand any serious discussion. Therefore, all environmental policies are nothing more than an excuse to collect taxes so that a group of parasitic bureaucrats can live at the expense of others and finance sinister ideas, where the most sinister idea of all is that there is no room for everyone on planet earth. That is an idea that failed with Malthus at the beginning of the 19th century, a murderous idea that was also applied by the Egyptians against the Jews. And this is famously recorded in the Book of Shemot or Exodus.
Or for example, another thing is Black Lives matter, that is Black people against white people or indigenous people against the established communities, or I mean everything related to LGBT agendas. Definitely, these are some of the ways in which socialism extended the class struggle into other aspects of society, creating divisions and fostering deceit with the sole purpose of absorbing taxes.
I mean, what was the ministry of women in Argentina doing? Did it manage to reduce a single femicide? No, none at all. The number of femicides exploded just the same. In fact, the most feminist president in Argentine history, Mr. Alberto Fernández, used to beat his wife. That is such a strange feminist. I mean, well… So within the ranks of feminists, let’s say, you will essentially find the largest number of rapists and women beaters. And it’s quite interesting what they do. Their hypocrisy is truly striking.
It’s not just about that though. I mean, the battle is on three fronts. You have the economic front, which is free enterprise capitalism. Then we have the political level. Currently, the system that the world has designed is a Republican liberal democracy with checks and balances. And I mean, at the cultural battle level, notice that socialism has been very successful in the cultural battle. It has been very successful politically because it was able to translate that political battle in winning many elections. But why is it falling apart? Why? Because it produces misery and because the economic system is a disaster, so people eventually realize that it is making things worse for them.
Liberal, libertarians are very good when it comes to economics. Yes. And those good economic results can actually lead to the generation of solid political processes. But what happened? The liberals neglected the cultural battle. Much of the blame was placed on Fukuyama when he said, “This is the end of history.” No, it was not the end of history because the following year, in 1990, the socialists gathered at the São Paulo Forum, and based on the ideas of Gramsci, designed a strategy to infiltrate the media, culture, and education, which ended up changing the entire discourse. And they established that what they said was politically correct and that any-
It’s the same with journalists who get upset with Twitter. They say they defend freedom but can’t stand it when those who think differently speak. Is that freedom? Yes, for them, but not for those who think differently. That’s not freedom. That’s fascism. Then, what do we say? Then we must fight on the economic front. And I believe we are implementing an extremely successful economic program that is being recognized worldwide. In fact, the other night, the president-elect, Donald Trump, indeed gave recognition for the achievements we are having in Argentina and the speed at which we have done it.
At the same time, you have to fight the political battle because, well, soccer matches are not won by shouting from the stands, they are won by playing on the field. But that alone is not enough because you have to, let’s say you need to convey to society the values of capitalism, the free market, what liberalism is, the value of freedom, right? And when you succeed in that, then we will indeed be able to advance steadily. If you don’t fight the cultural battle, what happened in Chile will happen to you. They had economic success. It was, let’s say sustained over time, but at some point it collapsed. Why did it collapse? Because they hadn’t fought the cultural battle.
Then socialism, little by little, took control of institutions in education and the media. So, they took over the media and culture and on that basis, they attacked and broke up the system. And then they found themselves with increasing doses of socialism and the only thing socialism generates is poverty. Therefore, what you must keep in mind is that you have to fight the battles on all fronts. And if you don’t keep that in mind, I can tell you are headed towards collapse.
So really, what is the point of life if it’s not in freedom, right? I mean what is the point of living without fighting for your values? If I am willing to give my life for my values, then what is the point of living without freedom? Look, can I tell you something interesting that happened to me here in the United States? Let’s say back in the year 1998, I came to the United States to take a series of courses to improve my English, which I never use in formal terms because as president, as you can imagine, if I make a mistake, I can create a serious situation. Fortunately, I have an interpreter who is a superstar, and if I make a mistake even in Spanish, he corrects me in the version of the other language.
And so back then, in that year, I went to San Francisco and I visited Alcatraz. You are young, but I mean the visit was an audio tour. You got a Walkman and you would choose the different tracks and listen to the story. The most interesting thing is that the Alcatraz story ended in the recreation yard where the basketball court, exercise area, and all recreational facilities were located. So anyone would have thought that this was the best part of Alcatraz. And yet, what they said in the guide was that that was the hardest part for the inmates. Why? Because I mean that recreation area in particular is built in front of the San Francisco Bay. So, the inmates could all see how San Francisco continued to build up and evolve and develop every day while they were locked up in there. They couldn’t take part in that. They were confined in that prison. And that made them fully aware of the value of freedom.
So, in my experience for me, the fight for freedom is relentless, okay? I mean my greatest hero in all of human history is Moses. The feat of Moses is like one person alone with his brother, Aaron, both confronting the combined forces of the United States, China, and Russia together. And it was Moses who said to Ramesses, “Let my people go.” Well, Ramesses resisted and the forces of heaven ran him over. But what I mean is I don’t see any other possible way to live other than with freedom. And I would always fight for full freedom and I would be at the forefront of this cause. I mean it’s a cause that I’m going to die with my boots on. I mean I’m not going to make do with living any other way other than with freedom. I will fight everything. I’m going to fight as much as it takes. At least that’s the way I feel. So, what good is it to be alive if you’re confined? What good is it to be alive if you’re not free? It’s no good. What good was it for Peter Fetcher to be alive in communist Germany? Well, at least he had a moment of happiness while he tried to escape.
One of the things that happened to me is that when I went to first talk to him, I thought I was going to meet a successful businessman and that I would have a typical successful businessman conversation who understands business and that some of his businesses, some of his business is slightly more exotic, but that’s the kind of talk you would expect to have. And business people are truly admirable, right? Because they are true benefactors of society, but they’re usually very much focused on their own business. And one of the things that really, really shocked me when I met Elon Musk, we had scheduled a meeting for no more than 50 minutes, the first time we were in the meeting for a little over 45 minutes because he was about to miss his flight. So obviously, if someone as important as him doesn’t fly as planned, it has to be rescheduled and he loses a lot of hours. Imagine, every minute is very valuable.
And one of the things that happened was that basically he brought up the topic of demography and we started discussing demographics and growth. I never imagined that I would end up discussing demographics and growth with him. And another very fun thing was that something funny he said to me was that since we shared our vision regarding demographic issues and the need to populate the planet, he asked me, “Now, what about you? When are you going to move in that direction?” I said, “Oh, look, I have five children.” And he said, “Well, the four-legged ones don’t count.”
That was the first meeting I had with Elon Musk. The second meeting was when, here at the universities, we started seeing anti-Semitic demonstrations where basically Palestinian flags were displayed and Jews were harassed and persecuted. And at that moment when we had that second meeting, he showed himself to be very deeply involved with that and brought up the issue of the cultural battle. So, I mean it’s not quite conventional, even in the political field.
During our last talk, which lasted for about two and a half hours, one of the things we talked about was freedom and what was at stake for the United States in this election. Therefore, he is a person, honestly. I can say he’s well above average. I mean a person of unconventional intelligence and also he’s very charming. So, I mean, again, I have a great admiration for him and I really interact very closely with him. He’s very interested in what our Ministry of Deregulation is doing, which seeks to remove regulations. But at the same time, he works with another person who is also interested in the chainsaw approach, and so I’m very pleased because they are going to try and replicate the model we are implementing in Argentina.
And also, Donald Trump himself is very enthusiastic about this and anything in the way of reducing regulations and cutting public spending and taking government out of the equation means more freedom for the people. So, I’m very pleased with what’s going on. And with Trump’s victory, because the United States will be better off, Argentina is going to be better too and the whole world is going to be better off. Today, the world is a much better place than it was just a few days ago.
So, my advice would be for them to go all the way, to push it to the very limit, and do not give up. Do not let down their guard. Furthermore, that agenda does not have political purpose because at the end of the day, you are removing privileges. Of course, there will be people complaining, but those are people who are losing privileges, so they will have to explain society why they are keeping those privileges, and that is quite uncomfortable.
Another thing I truly admire about him is his courage. In fact, thankfully, thank goodness he didn’t get assassinated or killed, but it was by a small chance occurrence that could have killed him just because he moved at the right moment. And yet, that didn’t intimidate him and he went on. And in fact, during his first campaign, and in this one as well, in the second one and third one, they criticized him, insulted him, offended him, said awful things about him, made up all sorts of horrible stories about him. In that respect, I can say I deeply relate because probably no one in our history has had such a negative campaign from all the media like they did to me. But let’s say they were quite similar.
This is why it’s so interesting, and I was so deeply moved when last night I also got to meet Sylvester Stallone, because Sylvester Stallone talks about, well, how important is that no matter how hard they hit you and keep on hitting you all the time, despite all that, you keep going on and on and on. What I’m trying to say is that so many of Sylvester Stallone’s approaches are truly inspirational, don’t you think? So imagine, I’m about to give the speech and I see Sylvester Stallone and Sylvester Stallone knows me. It was truly insane. I had to pinch myself. I mean this can’t be true.
And besides, well, the people were wonderful with me last night. They’ve been wonderful today. I’ve taken hundreds of selfies. I mean it’s truly been… I would say it’s been my break, let me say, after almost a year in office and having to face all sorts of media torture because the journalists who have vested interests and are corrupt are professional torturers. Yes, because they invade your personal life, your family, and your privacy. Let me tell you something to show you the kind of garbage the media in Argentina can do. They send three drones to spy on me at my presidential residence, to spy on me. Do you think that’s right?
So, imagine that I’ve been in office for nearly a year, a year as president, and since they can’t criticize my management except by lying and distorting the numbers, they meddle with all these things, things they have been doing all the time since the year 2021 when I officially entered politics. And I’ve seen what they’ve done to Trump. So, that also makes me relate a lot to him because he’s a true warrior. He’s a Viking, he’s a Viking, he’s literally a Viking. I mean he’s someone I admire for how he has kept fighting in the face of adversity, even against all odds. And still he managed to win. Amazing.
And that’s why I can relate that much. And I’ve also seen how he’s been unfairly criticized, like when he was accused of protectionism or when he wanted to discuss some matters within the context of public debate regarding the design of monetary policy as regards to Fed. And basically, they have accused him of things. I mean isn’t he entitled to give an opinion as a president? I mean any citizen could give their opinion, even more so a president.
Moreover, in our campaign, we were very, very clear on three main points. One, the economic pillar. We talked about cutting public spending and I would make my appearances with a chainsaw. We talked about economic freedom, deregulation, that is, and I talked about a competition of currencies, and people obviously were interested in the dollar. So, it was obvious that the economic policy was clear, all right? And not only was it clear, but we are also fulfilling it. That is the first point.
Second was our policy on security. The idea being to fight crime, I mean relentlessly as well as security, no mercy, right? And in fact, in Argentina, there are no more roadblocks, which they said were impossible to end. Not only that, we have strengthened the security forces and also our armed forces, and we are waging a tough battle against drug trafficking and narcoterrorism. Therefore, we are also strongly fulfilling that. Notice that these two points, which were the main concerns, they were the biggest concerns of Argentinians when we took office, are now in fifth and sixth place.
Today, the problem for Argentinians is corruption, whether there is unemployment, if there is poverty, but they don’t mention inflation and insecurity anymore. And besides, a third point that I made clear was that I would align with the United States and Israel internationally, and at my campaign rallies, there would be groups that would come along with flags of Israel. So, it’s clear that our international policy approach was always very clear and this is something I state during my speeches when I talk about the values of the west and the civilization of the west. In fact, yesterday, and even more so today during my speeches, I talked about how the different Greek groups or tribes go together to confront the Persians.
That is to say it seemed that from that time, 500 years before Christ until today, that struggle continues, right? But well, so of course we’re all in. We are betting on the United States becoming, once again a leader in the West. We needed someone to come back to make America great again. And as part of that process, being a commercial ally is also a great idea. So, we would really like to move forward and deepen our trade ties and our investment ties. And well, we would also like to be part of the NATO as well.
But I won’t avoid the discussion. Today, there is currency competition. If, for instance, today in Argentina, you want to make transactions in any currency, you can do it and it’s allowed. Today there is currency competition. The other thing we talk about is the concept of, let’s suppose we were discussing dollarization. We talk about endogenous dollarization. The first point is that you need to clean up the central bank. We had to deal with the issue of the CIRA. That is the central bank’s commercial debt, which was $50 billion. We still have to resolve the dividend problem of $10 billion. And in the meantime, we did a write-off and cleaned up the central bank’s balance sheet by $45 billion. So, you can’t just close the central bank if it is bankrupt, because you need to redeem the whole central bank debt, which is about the issuing of money and the interest-bearing liabilities. So once we finished with the interest-bearing liabilities, it’ll leave us with the monetary base.
Therefore, today we have a regime where the amount of money is fixed, the monetary base is not growing, and as demand for money increases, since people can use dollars, they don’t need to go and sell the dollars and make the peso appreciate, but they can do transactions in dollars. So as the economy grows, you will have a greater share of dollars relative to pesos. And at some point, the amount of pesos compared to the dollars will be so huge relatively that closing down the central bank will be done easily, which means this is working.
Of course, if you were to give me the money right now, I would go ahead and dollarize. I’d have no problem with that. For example, I did have a proposal for this, and this could have worked, because the largest creditor of the Argentine treasury is the central bank, but central bank bonds were trading at 20 cents. If I had sold those bonds at 20 cents and nowadays they are trading between 60 and 70. With the whole bunch of Neanderthals that are the opposition, who besides being ignorant in economics, also have bad intentions, I would be in jail today.
There is an article, which is quite old already now, titled Messi is Impossible. And it looks at all of the positions a soccer player plays in, that is all positions a soccer player can play in from midfield forward. And the most incredible thing is that Messi is the best in each of those positions. You can be the best in one or two positions. You see Cristiano Ronaldo, for example, was very good in two areas of the game. So much so that he was almost like Messi, but he didn’t take part in the rest. However, Messi is the best one in all respects. But at that time, of course. Nowadays, he’s an older player, right?
Some Puccini arias, for example, when you listen to them, when you listen to the famous aria from La Rondine, or the famous aria from Gianni Schicchi, you get the feeling that he was getting sat dictated by God. How can you put that into words? You can’t. There’s no way you do that. Those moments where we humans, that we have the privilege, I say it as human beings, because I’m speaking from that perspective. I say this only as an admirer.
Some human beings have the ability to vibrate so close to God that you can’t describe it, you can only enjoy it. This is why, in Judaism, they don’t use the name of God, of the Creator, because how could you put in words something like that? And I believe those are times when us humans connect closer to the Creator and create unique things, you cannot describe them. There are no words to describe that. The only thing you can do is enjoy it and be thankful that you can witness it.
And at the same time, he’s the one who suffers the most when a goal is scored, because he gets the direct impact. In fact, when the goalkeeper makes a mistake, it’s an own goal. Imagine a teammate scores a wonderful goal like the one Maradona did. It’s marvelous. And that’s just one goal. And imagine the goalkeeper picks up the ball, and then, if they bring it into the area wrongly, it’s like two goals, it’s a complete lack of proportion. So, therefore, and this, in my opinion, makes goalkeepers have a very strong temperament.
They’re used to being alone, and power is precisely that. Because when you make decisions, you are on your own. And not just that, but also when you have a responsibility, like that of a president, when you make a decision, it has an impact on millions of people. So just like goalkeepers, if you make a mistake and score an own goal, and in this context it’s negative consequences for millions of people. Therefore, that has been part of the university of life that has given me the tools to be president today. That is my training in economics, my training in liberalism, having been a goalkeeper, and also having had a very tough childhood.
Imagine if you had tried and spoken with, I don’t know, Michelangelo, you would have called him crazy too. Or if you had talked to, I don’t know, hundreds of people who have changed the world, surely they would have thought that Einstein was crazy and so on, the list would be infinite. So, what is the difference between a madman and a genius? Success.
This also implies that markets must be free. Free from state intervention, because when the state intervenes, it creates interference. And markets need to allow free entry and exit, what we call competition. However, it’s better to understand competition in the sense described by Israel Gerstner, one of the foremost figures of the Austrian school. Or in the neoclassical framework as William Baumel understood it, which was the concept of free entry and exit in so-called contestable markets. And also, let’s talk about what pertains to the division of labor and social co-operation.
The most wonderful thing about capitalism is that you can only be successful by serving others with better quality goods at a better price. If you are successful in the free market capitalism, you are a hero, you are a social benefactor, you are a prosperity machine. So the better you do, the better it is for society. This is very important. I remember when I had my first meeting with Elon Musk, and this made me admire him greatly, and this is something my sister commented on too.
Elon Musk told me something he does every day. He wakes up every morning thinking about what problem he could fix for humanity. That’s amazing. Of course, what is the counterpart? Being successful. Therefore, in that sense, and moreover in my view on how the system works, on how the market works, market failures do not exist. That is to say, that is a problem. A problem for neoclassical economies because of the mathematical tools they’ve used to develop economic analysis. But actually, it’s not a real issue in everyday life, it’s a problem in the minds of economists. In fact, my latest book called Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap deals precisely with this issue.
Well, I have an economist as chairman of the President’s Advisory Council, Dr. Demian Reidel, who studied here at Harvard University and completed his PhD, was mentored by Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist. And Rogoff has said that Dr. Reidel was his best student. Nowadays, we’re actually working with Dr. Reidel specifically on all these issues that arise from the interventions proposed by the mainstream, such as the so-called correction of market failures. And a few days ago, he conducted a survey of search algorithms and policy recommendations, and that resulted in a map painted from red to blue.
And well, the redder it was, the more it was linked to socialism, there was an intermediate thing that was yellow, and blue was free market ideas. And one of the things he discovered, as part of that graph or chart, was that the largest number of policy recommendations, scandalously, are actually left-leaning. So that is the empirical evidence of what I pointed out in the book, Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Javier Milei. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from George Orwell. “In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 3:27 – Economic freedom
- 8:52 – Anarcho-capitalism
- 18:45 – Presidency and reforms
- 38:05 – Poverty
- 44:37 – Corruption
- 53:14 – Freedom
- 1:07:26 – Elon Musk
- 1:12:54 – DOGE
- 1:14:56 – Donald Trump
- 1:20:56 – US and Argentina relations
- 1:28:05 – Messi vs Maradona
- 1:36:58 – God
- 1:39:05 – Elvis and Rolling Stones
- 1:42:45 – Free market
- 1:49:46 – Loyalty
- 1:52:23 – Advice for young people
- 1:53:49 – Hope for Argentina
Introduction
Javier Milei
So what is the difference between a madman and a genius? Success.
So what is the difference between a madman and a genius? Success.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Javier Milei, the president of Argentina. He is a libertarian, anarcho-capitalist, and economist, who campaigned with a chainsaw that symbolized his promise to slash the corrupt bureaucracy of the state. He stepped into the presidency one year ago, with a country on the brink of hyperinflation, deepened debt and suffering from mass unemployment and poverty. He took this crisis head on, transforming one of Latin America’s largest economies through pure free market principles. In just a few months in office, he already achieved Argentina’s first fiscal surplus in 16 years, and not just avoided the hyperinflation but brought inflation down to its lowest in three years.
The following is a conversation with Javier Milei, the president of Argentina. He is a libertarian, anarcho-capitalist, and economist, who campaigned with a chainsaw that symbolized his promise to slash the corrupt bureaucracy of the state. He stepped into the presidency one year ago, with a country on the brink of hyperinflation, deepened debt and suffering from mass unemployment and poverty. He took this crisis head on, transforming one of Latin America’s largest economies through pure free market principles. In just a few months in office, he already achieved Argentina’s first fiscal surplus in 16 years, and not just avoided the hyperinflation but brought inflation down to its lowest in three years.
We discuss all of this in detail, both the successes and the challenges. His depth of knowledge of economic principles, metrics and data was truly impressive and refreshing to hear from a world leader. But even bigger than the economic transformation of Argentina, Javier represents the universal fight against government corruption and the fight for freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, and freedom of speech. He has many critics, many of whom a part of the corrupt establishment he’s seeking to dismantle, but many are simply Argentinian citizens, scared of the pain his radical policies may bring, at least in the short term. But whether one disagrees with his methods or not, no one can deny that his presidency marks one of the most ambitious attempts at economic transformation in modern history, and that Javier Milei is truly a force of nature, combining the rigor of an economist with the passion of a revolutionary in the fight for freedom of a nation he loves. Argentina is one of my favorite countries, so I sincerely hope he succeeds.
This interview was conducted with the President speaking Spanish and me speaking English with an interpreter simultaneously translating. We make the episode available overdubbed and subtitled in both English and Spanish, thanks to our great friends at ElevenLabs. If you’re watching on YouTube, you can switch between English and Spanish by clicking the gear icon, selecting audio track, and then choosing the language. Same with the captions. If you’re watching on X, I’ll post both Spanish and English versions separately. If you’re watching on Spotify or listening elsewhere, I’ll probably only post the English version. This is a first time for me doing something like this in a foreign language. It was challenging, but illuminating. I hope to talking to many world leaders for two to three hours in this way, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Xi Jinping. I want to explore who they are, how they think, and how they hope to help their country and humanity flourish. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Javier Milei.
Economic freedom
Lex Fridman
When did you first understand the value of freedom, especially economic freedom?
When did you first understand the value of freedom, especially economic freedom?
Javier Milei
Well, actually, I came to understand the ideas of freedom as an economic growth specialist back in the years of 2013 to 2014. I could see that per capita GDP statistics over the last 2,000 years of the Christian era essentially looked like a hockey stick, indicating that per capita GDP remained almost constant until around 1800, after which it accelerated sharply. In the same context of that phenomenal increase in productivity and per capita GDP, the population had multiplied sevenfold over the preceding 200 years.
Well, actually, I came to understand the ideas of freedom as an economic growth specialist back in the years of 2013 to 2014. I could see that per capita GDP statistics over the last 2,000 years of the Christian era essentially looked like a hockey stick, indicating that per capita GDP remained almost constant until around 1800, after which it accelerated sharply. In the same context of that phenomenal increase in productivity and per capita GDP, the population had multiplied sevenfold over the preceding 200 years.
So basically, in economics, that means you get increasing returns, and the presence of increasing returns implies the existence of monopolies, concentrated structures, and according to traditional neoclassical economic theory, the presence of monopolies and concentrated structures is not a good thing. But at the same time, one could see that living standards had increased tremendously and that middle-income people ended up living far better than emperors did in the Roman era, and the population had gone from having 95% of people in extreme poverty to less than 10%. And in that context, the question was, how it could be that something that had lifted so many people out of poverty, that had improved human conditions so much, could be something bad for economic theory, meaning something was not right.
So in that context, I remember that one of the people who worked on my team suggested I read an article by Murray Newton Rothbard called Monopoly and Competition. I remember reading it like it was today, and after reading it carefully, I said, “Everything I’ve taught about market structure in the last 20 years in courses on microeconomics is wrong.” This caused a very strong internal commotion in me. So I called this person who used work with me, and they recommended a place to buy Austrian School of Economics books, and I remember I bought at least 20 or 30 books, which I went to pick up one Saturday afternoon. And when I visited the bookstore, I was fascinated by all the stuff they had there.
So I went back the next day and I started calculating how much money I needed to pay for my dog’s food. That’s my four-legged child, and how much I needed to spend on the taxi fare and food. And then with what I have left, I spent all of it on more books. And then I started to read very intensively, and I remember for example, the experience of reading Human Action by Mises, and this was a book that I didn’t know about. And I remember that on the following weekend, I started to read this book right from the first page, and I didn’t stop until I finished it, and that was a true revolution in my head. And having the chance to read Austrian authors like Rothbard, Mises, Hayek, Hoppe and Jesus Huerta de Soto, or others like Juan Ramon Rallo, Philipp Bagus and Walter Block, for example.
That was very inspirational, and at one point I got the opportunity to read related to the works of Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:07:38], and I also had the pleasure and honor to meet him. And today we are actually friends. So that paved the way for me to approach the ideas of freedom. And another book that was a very significant influence and impact on me was the Principles of Political Economics by Menger. It was truly eye-opening, or let’s say, for reading Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, these were things that really challenged all of my former thinking. I had a vague idea and poor about the Austrian School. The only thing I had read about the Austrian School until then had been Money and Time, a very good book by Garrison. But now that I understand a little bit more about Austrian economics, I know that it was rather poor. This doesn’t mean that the book isn’t good, but there were a whole lot of things to read that ended up being truly fascinating.
Anarcho-capitalism
Lex Fridman
So from that, what is now, today, and maybe you can talk about the evolution, is your philosophy, economics philosophy. You’ve described yourself as an anarcho-capitalist, market anarchists, libertarian. That’s the ideal, and then maybe in practice and reality, you’ve said that you’re more of a minarchist. So lay it all out. What’s your economics philosophy today?
So from that, what is now, today, and maybe you can talk about the evolution, is your philosophy, economics philosophy. You’ve described yourself as an anarcho-capitalist, market anarchists, libertarian. That’s the ideal, and then maybe in practice and reality, you’ve said that you’re more of a minarchist. So lay it all out. What’s your economics philosophy today?
Javier Milei
Strictly speaking, I am an anarcho-capitalist. I despise the state government. I despise violence. Let us suppose we take the definition of liberalism. I usually use the definition of liberalism given by Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:09:37], which is very much in line with the definition of John Locke, which essentially matches the definition by Alberto Benegas Lynch, Jr., who said that liberalism is the unrestricted respect for the life project of others based on the principle of non-aggression and in defense of the right to life, liberty, and property. So I frame all of the discussions within those terms. And the fact is that when you get to that notion, I would dare say that you become an anarcho-capitalist de facto. And what that describes, it is an idea which represents my ideal world. I mean, that is the ideal world.
Strictly speaking, I am an anarcho-capitalist. I despise the state government. I despise violence. Let us suppose we take the definition of liberalism. I usually use the definition of liberalism given by Alberto Benegas Lynch [foreign language 00:09:37], which is very much in line with the definition of John Locke, which essentially matches the definition by Alberto Benegas Lynch, Jr., who said that liberalism is the unrestricted respect for the life project of others based on the principle of non-aggression and in defense of the right to life, liberty, and property. So I frame all of the discussions within those terms. And the fact is that when you get to that notion, I would dare say that you become an anarcho-capitalist de facto. And what that describes, it is an idea which represents my ideal world. I mean, that is the ideal world.
Now, real life poses a whole lot of restraints, and some of those you can lift, and those restrictions and others you can’t. So in real life, I am a minarchist. I advocate for minimizing state size. I try to remove as many regulations as possible. In fact, that is what I used to say during my campaign, and let’s say, that is what I’m now carrying out. We have just carried out the largest structural reform in Argentine history. It is a structural reform that is eight times larger than Menem’s, which had been the largest structural reform in history. And we did that with 15% of the representatives and 10% of the senators. Furthermore, we have a deregulation ministry where basically every day we eliminate between one and five regulations. On the other hand, we have 3,200 additional structural reforms pending, to the point that the day we finish all these reforms, we will be the freest country on the planet, with the consequences they have in terms of well-being. Think about this, when Ireland started market reforms just over 40 years ago, it was the poorest country in Europe. Today, its GDP per capita is 50% higher than that of the United States. So I have a current situation, and what I am constantly looking for, whether from my academic works and my outreach notes and books, is the world we have today, that every day we are closer, that every day we gain more freedom because there are some very interesting things here. First, I would like to quote Milton Friedman. There is a moment when they do an interview with Milton Friedman and they ask him about liberals, and then he says that there are three types of liberals. There are the classical liberals where, for example, Adam Smith or Milton Friedman himself could fit. Some say that Hayek could fit into that category. For me, Hayek is a minarchist.
Then you have the minarchists where you could clearly find in that place Mises, Hayek. One could find in philosophical terms Nozick and basically Ayn Rand. And at one point, Milton Friedman, based on his own son, he says, “But if you look closely, there are some who are anarchists.” Let’s say, probably from my point of view, the person who has been the greatest inspiration in my life is essentially Murray Newton Rothbard. So therefore, there are two dimensions. One is where I want to go, and the topic is where I stand. So the most important thing is to try each day to advance further toward that ideal of anarcho-capitalism. In that sense, sometimes we face strong and harsh criticism regarding that ideal vision. I think that’s the nirvana fallacy. If you compare yourself against paradise, everything is horrible and miserable, but you don’t live in paradise. You live on earth. Basically, what you need to understand is something called the state conditions. Let’s suppose that you don’t like rectangular tables. You prefer circular tables. Now the reality is, I have only a few hours until I go and catch my flight and the table is rectangular. You like a circular table, a round one, but there isn’t one. What you have is a rectangular table. So either we do the interview here or we just can’t do it. So what do you do? You adapt to the current conditions. This is what there is now. So then you have some restrictions that you can change and others that you cannot. The idea is to modify all the ones that can be changed in the short term, and start working on those that can be modified in the medium or long-term. For example, if you really like round tables, perhaps the next interview we may do at a round table. We’re going to try and solve it, but today it’s something that we couldn’t possibly solve. So that’s basically the idea, right?
Let’s say it’s about understanding that some restrictions you can change, others you can, and there are institutional restrictions too. There are many anarcho-capitalists who are dedicated to criticizing, and incredibly, they do so with more violence towards liberals, and many of them actually criticize me, which truly make no sense because it is precisely the nirvana fallacy but the reality is that… Look, in Argentina, for example, the most popular sport is soccer. When you go to watch an Argentina match, it is beautiful. The stands are full, and they’re all painted with sky blue and white colors. There is a lot of joy. People sing songs that are very fun, that are very distinctive. It’s very much part of Argentine folklore, so to speak. But you see that beautiful show is external. That is to say it does not determine the outcome. You place the ball in the middle of the field, and no matter how much people shout, the ball doesn’t move. The one who moves the ball and scores the goals is Messi.
So what do I mean? If you don’t get involved and don’t get into it, no, you don’t do anything. So what do I know is that there are many liberals, libertarians and anarcho-capitalists who are really useless because all they do is criticize, let’s say, those of us who want to lead the world toward the ideas of freedom. And what they don’t realize is that power is a zero-sum game, and if we don’t have it, then the left will have it. Therefore, if you level your harshest criticism at those in your own ranks, you end up being subservient to socialism probably. And also, for instance, you have cases of strong hypocrisy, let’s say. I have seen cases of agorists. It’s the anarcho- capitalists who criticize Rothbard because he said that you have to get into politics, otherwise the socialists will advance. And it’s interesting because some of them, I have seen them criticizing, proposing agorism, and I remember one of them, one day the police showed up and honestly, he was peeing himself.
So it’s very easy to criticize, propose, and suggest, but if he was truly such an agonist, he should have been willing to endure going to jail. However, when it was time to face the consequences of the idea he was promoting, he froze, wet his pants and ended up, let’s say, accepting all the restrictions because clearly it was better to be out of jail than in jail. But in doing so, he sold out his ideas. So it seems to me that no, not taking into account the restrictions of the situation, only serves to be functional to socialism because all it does is strike against one’s own.
Presidency and reforms
Lex Fridman
So you became president 11 months ago. Can you, again, describe some of the actions you took? For example, you cut half the number of government ministries, layoffs, removed price controls. It’ll be interesting to lay out the first steps and what’s next.
So you became president 11 months ago. Can you, again, describe some of the actions you took? For example, you cut half the number of government ministries, layoffs, removed price controls. It’ll be interesting to lay out the first steps and what’s next.
Javier Milei
If you allow me, I will first give you a description of the situation we received, and based on that, I will tell you each of the things we did. When we first took office, basically what we found was that in the first week of December, inflation was rising at the rate of 1% per day, which means 3,700% annually. In the first half of December, it had accelerated to 7,500% annually. When you look at wholesale inflation in December of last year, it was 54%, which if annualized would equate to an inflation rate of 17,000% per year. And in addition, Argentina for the previous 10 years had not been growing, with a drop in GDP per capita of approximately 15%. And the reality was that nearly 50% were living in poverty.
If you allow me, I will first give you a description of the situation we received, and based on that, I will tell you each of the things we did. When we first took office, basically what we found was that in the first week of December, inflation was rising at the rate of 1% per day, which means 3,700% annually. In the first half of December, it had accelerated to 7,500% annually. When you look at wholesale inflation in December of last year, it was 54%, which if annualized would equate to an inflation rate of 17,000% per year. And in addition, Argentina for the previous 10 years had not been growing, with a drop in GDP per capita of approximately 15%. And the reality was that nearly 50% were living in poverty.
Now, later I will get deeper into that discussion, and the reality is that we had a fiscal deficit, which amounted to 15% of GDP. Five points were in the Treasury, 10 points were in the Central Bank, which was endogenous monetary issuance. And the reality is that we also had interest-bearing liabilities at the Central Bank, equivalent to four monetary bases maturing in one day, meaning we could have quintupled the amount of money in one day. We had peso-denominated maturities, amounting to the equivalent of $90 billion. The Central Bank had negative net currency foreign reserves, minus $12 billion. We had commercial debts in the Central Bank equivalent to $50 billion. There were company dividends held back amounting to $10 billion. Therefore, if we had instantly opened up… You see, I say we are liberal libertarians. We are not liberal fools. That’s what some anarchist liberals suggested, meaning that we basically open everything on the first day.
So in that context, of course, if we had done that, we would’ve encountered hyperinflation. Therefore, that would have led to the number of poor people being around 95% and probably, and by December, the Peronist party would have organized supermarket’s lootings, and would’ve done all sorts of things, and would’ve probably been ousted. And by the first part of the year, the Peronists would’ve gone back to office. So to us, it was crucial to end fiscal deficit.
One of the things we promised during the campaign had been to reduce the number of ministries, and indeed we reduced to less than half the number of ministries because we went to nine ministries, today we have eight. We have also laid off a large number of civil employees. Today, I can say that we’ve already dismissed about 50,000 of them, and we practically don’t renew any contracts unless the positions are absolutely necessary. At the same time, we have stopped public works and we have eliminated discretionary transfers to the provinces. We have also diluted public sector wages. Also, we have eliminated economic subsidies by restoring utility rates to the right levels. And in that, let’s say, in this context, we achieved fiscal balance as far as the Treasury is concerned. This is very important because in the last 123 years, Argentina had a deficit for 113 of them, and in the 10 years it did not have a deficit because it was not paying the debt. So that was absolutely false, and they told us it would be impossible to do that.
We had planned to do so within a year, and they said it wasn’t possible to adjust by more than one percentage point, and we achieved fiscal balance in the month of January. That is the first month of administration. At the same time, we also cut social plans linked to intermediation. This is very important because we knew we were going to make a very tough adjustment, and we knew that this was going to have a court in social terms, and we knew that we had to offer support during the first month, I mean, the first quarter and second quarter in office. One of the things we did was to eliminate what are known as poverty managers. That is intermediaries. Basically, people have a guard through which they receive assistance, but it happens that they had to provide a counter service, and that counter service was verified by a group called the piqueteros.
So in that context, when they were going to sign, the counter service took away half of the money. So by removing that payoff, they stopped extorting them, stopped stealing their money, and with the same amount of money, they received double the resources. And of course, we also provided an additional boost. So let’s say that this is related to the five adjustment points in the Treasury. Now, what happens, as we began to achieve fiscal balance and no longer needed to issue money to finance ourselves, and as we also met interest payments and some capital repayments, one of the things that happened is that the debt market began to be recreated. So we were able to take debt out of the Central Bank and transfer it to the Treasury where it should have always been, and that meant an adjustment of approximately 10% of GDP. Everyone said this would be impossible and couldn’t be fixed.
Essentially, what we did was implement a fiscal adjustment at the Central Bank, amounting to 10% of GDP. So if you ask me, it’s clear that we have not only made the biggest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity, because we made a fiscal adjustment of 15 points of the GDP, but also most of that went back to the people as less seigniorage, as a lower inflation rate. It’s true that we temporarily raised the country tax, but we lowered it in September, and now in December, we’re going to eliminate it. Today, for example, we also announced that in December we are eliminating import taxes. In fact, in that regard, what you have is that we return to the people 13 and a half points of GDP because the real tax burden is the size of the state. So while back in December we were discussing hyperinflation, today we are discussing 30-year loans.
In other words, all those resources that the national government used to take are now back in the private sector. And that’s what has allowed it to be very dynamic. And this has two very strong impacts. The first one is that if you look at wholesale inflation, it went down from 54% to 2%. So it went down by 27 times. It was divided into 27. So we had inflation at the rate of 17,000% annually, and it’s now close to about 28% a year, but it’s not only that. You could consider consumer inflation, the latest consumer inflation rate was 2.7%. Now, it happens that we essentially, due to a matter that is related to the Central Bank’s balance sheets and also due to the debt stocks, we still have controls in place and we are eliminating restrictions, day by day. Now, the interesting thing is that we have a 2% monthly devaluation standard, and there’s international inflation of course, which means that you then have to subtract two and a half points from the inflation observed by the consumer.
This indicates that inflation in Argentina, the true inflation, not the induced one, but the actual monetary inflation is 0.2% per month. At 0.2% per month, this equates to 2.4% annually. What I’m saying is, the original discussion was about whether inflation could reach 17,000%. Now we are bringing inflation down to levels of 2.5% annually, and that is amazing. And we achieved this by considering a number of factors. The first one is that we did not experience a previous hyperinflation, which would’ve simplified the process of implementing a stabilization program. Typically, when hyperinflation occurs, monetary assets are diluted, leading to a natural restoration of demand. And besides, we did not resort to any expropriation. For example, before the Convertibility plan, which was the most successful program in Argentina’s history, Argentina experienced two instances of hyperinflation. During Alfonsin’s administration, inflation reached 5,000%, and under Menem was 1,200%.
Additionally, there was the BONEX plan, under which debt was exchanged on a compulsory basis. In other words, what we did instead was clean up the Central Bank balance sheet. So with that, we cleaned up the Central Bank’s balance sheet. We cleared a loss of $45 billion, all voluntarily. And the most amazing thing is that we did it in just six months, and at the same time, we have not controlled prices.
Javier Milei
And at the same time, we have not controlled prices nor have we fixed the exchange rate. And this is very important. All previous stabilization programs in an effort to show quick results used to do this. What they would do is, before announcing the plan, they would adjust the rates. And once the rates were adjusted, they would launch the plan. But in our case, we couldn’t afford that luxury, so we had to implement it on the go. And also over the past few months, that is to say companies brought in rates that covered only about 10%, whereas today they cover 80% so you get the picture. Just imagine the adjustment we are making. And in that sense, it is also incredible what we have achieved because if we were to work with the inflation we have in our country today, considering the exchange rate situation, the figures are even better than during the convertibility program, which was the most successful economic program in Argentina’s history.
And at the same time, we have not controlled prices nor have we fixed the exchange rate. And this is very important. All previous stabilization programs in an effort to show quick results used to do this. What they would do is, before announcing the plan, they would adjust the rates. And once the rates were adjusted, they would launch the plan. But in our case, we couldn’t afford that luxury, so we had to implement it on the go. And also over the past few months, that is to say companies brought in rates that covered only about 10%, whereas today they cover 80% so you get the picture. Just imagine the adjustment we are making. And in that sense, it is also incredible what we have achieved because if we were to work with the inflation we have in our country today, considering the exchange rate situation, the figures are even better than during the convertibility program, which was the most successful economic program in Argentina’s history.
And in fact, there is an article called Passing the Buck, which is by Gerardo della Paolera, Bózzoli, and Irigoin that demonstrates that Menem’s first government was the best government in history. And basically, it argues two things in the success of the stabilization of the convertibility program. So if you take a closer look, when you examine it carefully, when you account for all these factors, our disinflation process is actually much more genuine. And not only that, it’s also much deeper. We are restored freedoms to Argentinians while simultaneously implementing a structural reform eight times larger. And we accomplished this with only with 15% of the representatives, 10% of the senators, and within the first six months of government. In other words, our deregulation agenda continues daily and we still have 3,200 structural reforms pending. This will ultimately make Argentina the freest country in the world.
Moreover, to have a sense of magnitude, the reforms that we already have made with the executive order 7023, and with the basis law, we have actually jumped 90 places in terms of economic freedom. What this means is that today, Argentina has institutions similar to those of Germany, France, Italy, and we obviously want this to continue. And let’s say we are going to surpass no doubt the levels of economic freedom that Ireland reached in its best moment. And not only that, we’re going to exceed the levels of economic freedom of Australia, New Zealand, and Switzerland. We are undoubtedly going to be the freest country in the world.
And this means that thanks to what we’ve done today, we are on a path that allows us to multiply our per capita GDP by 2.5 times when you apply the relevant correction. And this of course is something very interesting because it implies a huge increase in well-being. And furthermore, today the Argentinian economy is already strongly and amazingly recovering. And we can say analysts’ hypotheses were suggesting that next year we will be growing between five and 6%. Today, JP Morgan has now corrected or let’s say revised the projections upwards. And besides, when we normalized the price situation, the true poverty rate came up and it was 57% in January. Today it is at 46%, meaning we lowered poverty by 11 percentage points. Let’s say, I mean, it seems truly like a miracle. And not only that, but actually not a single job was lost in the process.
When it comes to all of this inflation reduction process, people said that our economy and economic activity would collapse. And actually when you look at the de-seasonalized data, you see that in August there was a recovery that took us back to December levels, to December levels. That means that in the year, we made the largest fiscal adjustment in the history of humanity. We will end up with less inflation, fewer poor people, better real wages, and additionally, a GDP higher than what we started with.
And if you look at it in dollars, I can assure you that the numbers are phenomenal because basically today the dollar is below the levels we had when we took office. So the reality is that in all of this, when you take my popularity levels and the government’s acceptance levels, today they are above the moment. We assumed office if you know that the moment of maximum popularity is when you take office. Therefore this means that far from resting on our laurels with this, we’re going for more reforms. We’re going to deepen the reforms. And I tell you, we won’t stop until Argentina is the freest country in the world.
Furthermore, a recent work by an Argentinian economist named Juan Pablo Nicolini was presented at the central bank’s monetary meetings and he works at the Federal Reserve. And it’s interesting because he shows that only on the basis of what we have done in fiscal matters it ensures that in the span of 10 years we can double the GDP per capita, meaning that Argentina could grow at rates of 7% annually, which is very much, very much, and that has strong consequences in terms of improving quality of life, reducing poverty, reducing indigence. Therefore, if during the worst moment our image didn’t suffer and we stayed strong in our ideas, now that everything is working much better, why should we change?
On the contrary, we are ready to redouble the bet, to redouble our efforts because we’ve done things that no one else has done. I will give you an example. There’s something that seems trivial, but there’s what’s called the single paper ballot. Argentina used to vote with huge ballots, which were above all very costly. And that reform, it never… Let’s say it wasn’t done because it always harmed the ruling party. So everyone talked about going to the single paper ballot, but no one did it when they were in power. They didn’t want to implement it because they preferred to commit fraud or use some kind of trickery to avoid applying that rule that makes the election more competitive. Well, what’s interesting, we sent that law and it was approved.
What’s more? Now we are finishing with the open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries because it was a mechanism by which politics was also stealing. We are eliminating the financing of political parties. If you look, we have reduced the fiscal pressure by 15 points to the Argentinians. We are restoring freedoms with a deep set of structural and regulatory reforms that is I think that any sensible liberal could perceive. We are already delivering a wonderful government. In fact, it’s the best government in the history of Argentina. If the best had been that of Menem, we’ve already outpaced him.
Poverty
Lex Fridman
Maybe you can explain to me the metrics of poverty and unemployment. As you said, unemployment went down, real unemployment went down, real poverty went down. But even that aside, what have been the most painful impacts of these radical reforms and how many of them are required in the short term to have a big positive impact in the long term?
Maybe you can explain to me the metrics of poverty and unemployment. As you said, unemployment went down, real unemployment went down, real poverty went down. But even that aside, what have been the most painful impacts of these radical reforms and how many of them are required in the short term to have a big positive impact in the long term?
Javier Milei
Let’s take it step by step, all right? That is in fact, we started to do things right, therefore we did not create poverty. The poverty was an inherited poverty. The point is that what we did was to reveal it.
Let’s take it step by step, all right? That is in fact, we started to do things right, therefore we did not create poverty. The poverty was an inherited poverty. The point is that what we did was to reveal it.
I’ll try to explain it with an example that I think clarifies what’s happening in Argentina. Argentina was an economy that had a total price controls. It had a fiscal deficit which was financed through money printing. Just for you to give you an idea, in the last year, Argentina financed 13 points of the gross domestic product with money printing. In other words, a real disaster. So that situation provoked this artificially demand and puts pressure on prices. The issue is that price controls are applied additionally over the prices that they enter the price index with which inflation was… I’m not saying they were lying about it. It was distorted.
And since Argentina measures poverty and indigence by income line, then what happens? That distorted the true levels of poverty, of course. But that’s not the only effect. I mean, let’s say the real poverty levels were higher, quite a bit higher than those shown by the previous government, which showed them at 41% and also did so on a six-monthly basis. So if you, let’s say, have a growing trend, they are actually leaving you a bomb and you don’t see it because let’s say basically the indicator was measured with a delayed form. But not only that, imagine that you are also given… You are in the middle of an island alone and they give you $1 million. What can you do with that? You cannot do anything because you cannot buy anything. It is the same as if someone tells you that the price of glasses is $10, but when you want to buy it, it’s not available.
Actually, there’s a joke told by an Argentinian professor named Juan Carlos de Pablo, who says that a man goes to a bazaar and asks for a vase. Then he says to him, “Well, I want that vase. How much would you charge me?” Then he says, “$5,000.”
“Oh, okay, $5,000. But why $5,000 if across the street it’s 1,000?” He says, “Well, go buy it across the street for 1,000.”
“Ah, there’s none for 1,000.”
“Well then, here when there’s more, it’ll also cost 1,000.” In other words, prices at which they are available. So what happens? When you are faced with that situation, the supermarket shelves were empty. So what was the point of having a price at which you couldn’t buy anything? You left those prices. The shelves were empty. So the statistics showed that you were much better, but the reality is you couldn’t buy anything. You couldn’t make it happen.
So if you left the situation as it was, people were going to starve because they couldn’t buy anything. Yes, they had a certain amount of money that could supposedly buy certain goods, but those goods were not available. What is the only thing you can do to save people? Make the prices transparent and allow products to reappear. Well, when you make the prices transparent, you also make transparent the cost of the basic food basket and the total basic basket, meaning the poverty line… Sorry, the indigence line and the poverty line respectively. And when you do that, clearly you will see a jump in poverty. That brought poverty up to 57%.
Now, Argentina found its activity floor in the month of April. From that moment, Argentina began to invent a cyclical recovery. Real wages have been growing every month above inflation. Therefore, nominal wages are beating inflation. In fact, we are already at level similar to those we had in November. The same goes for pensions.
Moreover, also, let’s say there is a rebound in activity due to the recovery of the stock cycle. Therefore, this is also contributing to more and better-paid jobs. In fact, this is so strong and evident that the wages growing the most are in the informal sector. This means that poverty and extreme poverty are decreasing much faster than we imagined. But not only that, by eliminating inflation, you remove the inflationary tax, but the real burden is the fiscal deficit, which was 15 points of the GDP.
Okay, we temporarily raised the country tax, now we lower it, but we return that to the Argentinians. We gave back 15 points of the GDP. Not only that, but also when you eliminate inflation, you remove the distortion of relative prices. Therefore, the allocation of resources is much better. Not only that, but also with the strong fiscal adjustment we made, we have reduced the country risk from 3000 basis points to 770. Today, Fitch raised Argentina’s rating to CCC. So what do I mean? That translates into a lower country risk and interest rates. And that generates an increase in investment, also generates an increase in consumption.
In other words, the Argentinian economy is currently in an absolutely flourishing moment. And how is that sustained in the long term? With structural reforms which we implement daily, deregulating the economy and introducing new laws that free Argentinians from the many oppressive measures that have burdened it over the past 100 years.
Corruption
Lex Fridman
You’ve spoken about the caste, the corrupt political establishment. So there’s a lot of powerful people and groups that are against your ideas. What does it take to fight when so much power is against you?
You’ve spoken about the caste, the corrupt political establishment. So there’s a lot of powerful people and groups that are against your ideas. What does it take to fight when so much power is against you?
Javier Milei
Look, we have fought against corruption like never before in Argentina. In fact, when we took office for example, there were about 900 roadblocks per year. That is people who made a habit of blocking the streets. They prevented free movement. And besides, they were given social plans and they were given a lot of money. If you remember when I started by explaining the cuts, one of the things I said was that we removed the middlemen of poverty. In other words, the managers of poverty, those who lived by stealing from the poor. Well, that is a huge source of corruption.
Look, we have fought against corruption like never before in Argentina. In fact, when we took office for example, there were about 900 roadblocks per year. That is people who made a habit of blocking the streets. They prevented free movement. And besides, they were given social plans and they were given a lot of money. If you remember when I started by explaining the cuts, one of the things I said was that we removed the middlemen of poverty. In other words, the managers of poverty, those who lived by stealing from the poor. Well, that is a huge source of corruption.
In fact, when we did that, two days later, one of the most renowned and influential Piqueteros called for a demonstration. He claimed that 50,000 people would attend because he was actually expecting 100,000. So he wanted to showcase it as a success. And so then let’s say with the decision made in human capital to cut their funding, the anti-blockade protocol was also enacted, where those who blocked the streets wouldn’t receive welfare benefits.
And those who broke the law would go to jail. All of that. And also we were informing this through transportation channels. Well, in that march, they expected to have 100,000 people there. And actually it turned out to be 3,000 people. And from that point on, they didn’t block the streets anymore.
We also evidently put an end to that corruption. One of the things that also generated a lot of corruption was public works. Another thing that led to significant acts of corruption were the discretionary transfers to provinces. In general, these transfers were made to the provinces with accounting as obscure as possible. So the national government, in collusion with the governors let’s say, the money ended up being used for other things. Not only that, with which we have already done many things.
Furthermore, the ministry of human capital is always filing complaints in court. Not in the media, in court. Acts of corruption like never before in Argentine history. Not only that, but also in terms of condemning corruption. That is, we have done, for example, two days ago, it was condemned, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner got a sentence for corruption, I mean, due to corruption. And the next day, that is yesterday, we took away their privileged pensions.
At the same time, we are, for example, we have discovered that Kirchnerism used disability pensions for acts of corruption. For example, there is a city that has more disability pensions than people. In other words, to give you an idea of the things being done in Argentina.
And also in Argentina, we have restored freedom to the judiciary. We do not pressure the judiciary. And this is so true that during my government, not only was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner convicted, but also the two terrorist attacks carried out by Iran were condemned. So if there is a government that is truly fighting against corruption, it is us. Not only that, but also with each deregulation, it is a privilege that we take away either from a politician, a prebendary company, or a power group. That is also very powerful. No one in Argentina has ever fought against corruption the way we have. In fact, I will move on to something that is deeply corrupt and one of my great battles, the corruption of the media and social media. That is to say, I removed the official advertising. That’s why you will see that even though we generate wonderful news, every week in large quantity, the media speak terribly. In other words, they demand to have a monopoly on the microphone. That is they are entitled to insult, hurt, offend, and they don’t want anyone to bother them, and they expect me not to even respond. That’s why a large part of journalism in Argentina hates the X Network. And that’s why the liberal libertarians love the X network, because we can all say what we want.
However, let’s say these supposed journalists who defend freedom of expression, actually what they want is to censor the ideas they don’t like. And of course, because they are leftists, because they are wokes, because they can’t stand the competition, because if they had to fight face-to-face, hand to hand, on a level playing field, when it comes to ideas, they would lose because they were a failure in the economic, social, and cultural aspects. And also, we must not forget that those murderers called socialists killed 150 million people. So they clearly cannot fight on equal terms. Therefore, they demand that social networks have censorship and that the truth cannot be told to them. Because when you tell a socialist the truth, they cry, claiming it’s hate speech. No, it’s not hate speech. It’s that you are useless people who have ruined the planet. They have made the planet much worse.
And fortunately today, thanks to social media, especially due to the enormous and brave work of Elon Musk and the role of Twitter, today X, allows information to flow, which makes it possible, let’s say, to expose politicians and also expose the media. And that’s why journalists in Argentina are so violent. Why? Because before they could, for instance, a journalist went and for example, he would go to a person and he would throw a folder at them and say, “If you don’t give me X amount of money, I am going to publish all of this and tarnish your reputation.” And I know for a fact a case of a journalist who carried out this extortion twice to a businessman, that businessman told him that he wasn’t going to pay. And evidently the journalist did it. Obviously they went to court, there was a trial, and that journalist lost both times. But that process is very slow. And in the meantime, they smeared.
So since the justice system takes a long time, so what is the problem? The problem is that in the meantime, your life got dirtied. So why can’t journalists do all this? Well, that’s why they dislike X. They dislike social media. They dislike the new form of communication because it took away their monopoly over the microphone. And by taking away the monopoly over the microphone, it removed the economic benefits of extortion.
So clearly, that’s another battle I’m fighting. You read a newspaper in Argentina, and 85% of what you read is a lie. That is to say the fundamental characteristic of most journalists, not all, but the vast majority of journalists in Argentina with some honorable exceptions, is that they are liars, slanderers, and defamers. And if the monopoly they demand were still in place that they want to reign again, I have no doubt that they will demand money in exchange for silence, because that’s what they are. They are extortionists, they are thieves, they are corrupt. And then of course, obviously when you take away a privilege from a sector, they get upset. Well, welcome to freedom.
Freedom
Lex Fridman
So you’re not only fighting for economic freedom, you’re fighting for freedom of speech?
So you’re not only fighting for economic freedom, you’re fighting for freedom of speech?
Javier Milei
Exactly. I fight for freedom in all aspects of life. That is to say, one of the things that seems most interesting to me is that when the Berlin Wall fell, it’s true that officially it fell in the year 1989. But the reality is that the wall or socialism fell in the year 1961 when they had to build the wall. I mean, they built it because people were leaving Communist Germany for capitalist Germany. They realized that those on the western side were much better off. And of course, to prevent people from leaving. They put what a wonderful system, right? So I mean, they had to trap people. They couldn’t let them go. I mean, these are such wonderful ideas that they had to apply them at gunpoint.
Exactly. I fight for freedom in all aspects of life. That is to say, one of the things that seems most interesting to me is that when the Berlin Wall fell, it’s true that officially it fell in the year 1989. But the reality is that the wall or socialism fell in the year 1961 when they had to build the wall. I mean, they built it because people were leaving Communist Germany for capitalist Germany. They realized that those on the western side were much better off. And of course, to prevent people from leaving. They put what a wonderful system, right? So I mean, they had to trap people. They couldn’t let them go. I mean, these are such wonderful ideas that they had to apply them at gunpoint.
Well, it’s no coincidence that they killed 150 million human beings. So what happened then? The official fall of the wall in the year 1989 made it clear that socialism had failed. In that context, the socialists, they moved the discussion of class struggle in economics and took it to other areas. So for example, socialism or what is of the 21st century or cultural Marxism or post-Marxism, whatever definition you want, is to take class struggle to different aspects of life.
For example, one of the aspects of life where you, let’s say, have this is in gender ideology. I mean, it’s incredible because the first ones to defend equality before the law were the liberals. The first to defend women’s rights were the liberals. Jeremy Bentham in the year 1750 was the first to demand equality before the law for women. I mean the cause of equality, equality before the law for women and equality of rights. The first ones who advocated for this were the liberals, did you know? However, what does the left do? They just go on to radicalize it. And then it moves to what is called female chauvinism.
Female chauvinism is, let’s say, the fight against males. And then, I mean, how do they do it? They do it by assigning rights. But when you assign a right, someone has to pay for it. And that has consequences. And in general, let’s say this always happens, the consequences are that the results are worse than what you had before. I mean, in any state intervention, the subsequent result is often worse than what you originally had. So that’s one thing. And not only that, but the other side of this is the environmental agenda, which sets man against nature involving all aspects of environmentalism and everything related to climate change.
In other words, they can’t stand any serious discussion. Therefore, all environmental policies are nothing more than an excuse to collect taxes so that a group of parasitic bureaucrats can live at the expense of others and finance sinister ideas, where the most sinister idea of all is that there is no room for everyone on planet earth. That is an idea that failed with Malthus at the beginning of the 19th century, a murderous idea that was also applied by the Egyptians against the Jews. And this is famously recorded in the Book of Shemot or Exodus.
Or for example, another thing is Black Lives matter, that is Black people against white people or indigenous people against the established communities, or I mean everything related to LGBT agendas. Definitely, these are some of the ways in which socialism extended the class struggle into other aspects of society, creating divisions and fostering deceit with the sole purpose of absorbing taxes.
I mean, what was the ministry of women in Argentina doing? Did it manage to reduce a single femicide? No, none at all. The number of femicides exploded just the same. In fact, the most feminist president in Argentine history, Mr. Alberto Fernández, used to beat his wife. That is such a strange feminist. I mean, well… So within the ranks of feminists, let’s say, you will essentially find the largest number of rapists and women beaters. And it’s quite interesting what they do. Their hypocrisy is truly striking.
It’s not just about that though. I mean, the battle is on three fronts. You have the economic front, which is free enterprise capitalism. Then we have the political level. Currently, the system that the world has designed is a Republican liberal democracy with checks and balances. And I mean, at the cultural battle level, notice that socialism has been very successful in the cultural battle. It has been very successful politically because it was able to translate that political battle in winning many elections. But why is it falling apart? Why? Because it produces misery and because the economic system is a disaster, so people eventually realize that it is making things worse for them.
Liberal, libertarians are very good when it comes to economics. Yes. And those good economic results can actually lead to the generation of solid political processes. But what happened? The liberals neglected the cultural battle. Much of the blame was placed on Fukuyama when he said, “This is the end of history.” No, it was not the end of history because the following year, in 1990, the socialists gathered at the São Paulo Forum, and based on the ideas of Gramsci, designed a strategy to infiltrate the media, culture, and education, which ended up changing the entire discourse. And they established that what they said was politically correct and that any-
Javier Milei
… was politically correct and that any idea outside of it was to be considered reactionary and had to be censored or even persecuted, and they claimed to be the ones defending freedom even though they were the ones persecuting people.
… was politically correct and that any idea outside of it was to be considered reactionary and had to be censored or even persecuted, and they claimed to be the ones defending freedom even though they were the ones persecuting people.
It’s the same with journalists who get upset with Twitter. They say they defend freedom but can’t stand it when those who think differently speak. Is that freedom? Yes, for them, but not for those who think differently. That’s not freedom. That’s fascism. Then, what do we say? Then we must fight on the economic front. And I believe we are implementing an extremely successful economic program that is being recognized worldwide. In fact, the other night, the president-elect, Donald Trump, indeed gave recognition for the achievements we are having in Argentina and the speed at which we have done it.
At the same time, you have to fight the political battle because, well, soccer matches are not won by shouting from the stands, they are won by playing on the field. But that alone is not enough because you have to, let’s say you need to convey to society the values of capitalism, the free market, what liberalism is, the value of freedom, right? And when you succeed in that, then we will indeed be able to advance steadily. If you don’t fight the cultural battle, what happened in Chile will happen to you. They had economic success. It was, let’s say sustained over time, but at some point it collapsed. Why did it collapse? Because they hadn’t fought the cultural battle.
Then socialism, little by little, took control of institutions in education and the media. So, they took over the media and culture and on that basis, they attacked and broke up the system. And then they found themselves with increasing doses of socialism and the only thing socialism generates is poverty. Therefore, what you must keep in mind is that you have to fight the battles on all fronts. And if you don’t keep that in mind, I can tell you are headed towards collapse.
Lex Fridman
Like you said, in this fight against corruption, you are challenging some very powerful people, a powerful establishment. Are you ever afraid for your life? Potential assassinations?
Like you said, in this fight against corruption, you are challenging some very powerful people, a powerful establishment. Are you ever afraid for your life? Potential assassinations?
Javier Milei
No. Tell me what good is it to live life, I mean, in slavery? Look, there is a song by a Spanish singer called Nino Bravo. Just to be clear, he has already left this earth, so we can say he has passed onto the beyond. The song is called Libre, and the song, it tells the story of Peter Fetcher, an 18-year-old boy who when the separation was made, and I mean the construction of the Berlin Wall begins. His family ends up on the western side and he accidentally ends up on the eastern side. And for a whole year, he plans his escape to the western side. And in that context, when he tries to escape, he gets murdered.
No. Tell me what good is it to live life, I mean, in slavery? Look, there is a song by a Spanish singer called Nino Bravo. Just to be clear, he has already left this earth, so we can say he has passed onto the beyond. The song is called Libre, and the song, it tells the story of Peter Fetcher, an 18-year-old boy who when the separation was made, and I mean the construction of the Berlin Wall begins. His family ends up on the western side and he accidentally ends up on the eastern side. And for a whole year, he plans his escape to the western side. And in that context, when he tries to escape, he gets murdered.
So really, what is the point of life if it’s not in freedom, right? I mean what is the point of living without fighting for your values? If I am willing to give my life for my values, then what is the point of living without freedom? Look, can I tell you something interesting that happened to me here in the United States? Let’s say back in the year 1998, I came to the United States to take a series of courses to improve my English, which I never use in formal terms because as president, as you can imagine, if I make a mistake, I can create a serious situation. Fortunately, I have an interpreter who is a superstar, and if I make a mistake even in Spanish, he corrects me in the version of the other language.
And so back then, in that year, I went to San Francisco and I visited Alcatraz. You are young, but I mean the visit was an audio tour. You got a Walkman and you would choose the different tracks and listen to the story. The most interesting thing is that the Alcatraz story ended in the recreation yard where the basketball court, exercise area, and all recreational facilities were located. So anyone would have thought that this was the best part of Alcatraz. And yet, what they said in the guide was that that was the hardest part for the inmates. Why? Because I mean that recreation area in particular is built in front of the San Francisco Bay. So, the inmates could all see how San Francisco continued to build up and evolve and develop every day while they were locked up in there. They couldn’t take part in that. They were confined in that prison. And that made them fully aware of the value of freedom.
So, in my experience for me, the fight for freedom is relentless, okay? I mean my greatest hero in all of human history is Moses. The feat of Moses is like one person alone with his brother, Aaron, both confronting the combined forces of the United States, China, and Russia together. And it was Moses who said to Ramesses, “Let my people go.” Well, Ramesses resisted and the forces of heaven ran him over. But what I mean is I don’t see any other possible way to live other than with freedom. And I would always fight for full freedom and I would be at the forefront of this cause. I mean it’s a cause that I’m going to die with my boots on. I mean I’m not going to make do with living any other way other than with freedom. I will fight everything. I’m going to fight as much as it takes. At least that’s the way I feel. So, what good is it to be alive if you’re confined? What good is it to be alive if you’re not free? It’s no good. What good was it for Peter Fetcher to be alive in communist Germany? Well, at least he had a moment of happiness while he tried to escape.
Elon Musk
Lex Fridman
Another guy who fights for freedom, freedom of speech in this case, is your new friend, Elon Musk. What do you admire and what have you learned from your interactions with Elon?
Another guy who fights for freedom, freedom of speech in this case, is your new friend, Elon Musk. What do you admire and what have you learned from your interactions with Elon?
Javier Milei
I have a huge admiration for Elon Musk. He is an absolutely unconventional person. He’s a great fighter for the ideas of freedom. What he has done on Twitter, now known as X, and how he is helping the world nowadays to wake up once and for all and become aware of the socialist virus, the woke virus, that in itself makes him a hero in the history of humanity. But it’s not just that.
I have a huge admiration for Elon Musk. He is an absolutely unconventional person. He’s a great fighter for the ideas of freedom. What he has done on Twitter, now known as X, and how he is helping the world nowadays to wake up once and for all and become aware of the socialist virus, the woke virus, that in itself makes him a hero in the history of humanity. But it’s not just that.
One of the things that happened to me is that when I went to first talk to him, I thought I was going to meet a successful businessman and that I would have a typical successful businessman conversation who understands business and that some of his businesses, some of his business is slightly more exotic, but that’s the kind of talk you would expect to have. And business people are truly admirable, right? Because they are true benefactors of society, but they’re usually very much focused on their own business. And one of the things that really, really shocked me when I met Elon Musk, we had scheduled a meeting for no more than 50 minutes, the first time we were in the meeting for a little over 45 minutes because he was about to miss his flight. So obviously, if someone as important as him doesn’t fly as planned, it has to be rescheduled and he loses a lot of hours. Imagine, every minute is very valuable.
And one of the things that happened was that basically he brought up the topic of demography and we started discussing demographics and growth. I never imagined that I would end up discussing demographics and growth with him. And another very fun thing was that something funny he said to me was that since we shared our vision regarding demographic issues and the need to populate the planet, he asked me, “Now, what about you? When are you going to move in that direction?” I said, “Oh, look, I have five children.” And he said, “Well, the four-legged ones don’t count.”
That was the first meeting I had with Elon Musk. The second meeting was when, here at the universities, we started seeing anti-Semitic demonstrations where basically Palestinian flags were displayed and Jews were harassed and persecuted. And at that moment when we had that second meeting, he showed himself to be very deeply involved with that and brought up the issue of the cultural battle. So, I mean it’s not quite conventional, even in the political field.
During our last talk, which lasted for about two and a half hours, one of the things we talked about was freedom and what was at stake for the United States in this election. Therefore, he is a person, honestly. I can say he’s well above average. I mean a person of unconventional intelligence and also he’s very charming. So, I mean, again, I have a great admiration for him and I really interact very closely with him. He’s very interested in what our Ministry of Deregulation is doing, which seeks to remove regulations. But at the same time, he works with another person who is also interested in the chainsaw approach, and so I’m very pleased because they are going to try and replicate the model we are implementing in Argentina.
And also, Donald Trump himself is very enthusiastic about this and anything in the way of reducing regulations and cutting public spending and taking government out of the equation means more freedom for the people. So, I’m very pleased with what’s going on. And with Trump’s victory, because the United States will be better off, Argentina is going to be better too and the whole world is going to be better off. Today, the world is a much better place than it was just a few days ago.
DOGE
Lex Fridman
Like you said, Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading the DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency. So from your experience this year as president of Argentina and every chainsaw economic policies that you’ve implemented, what advice would you give to Elon and Vivek about how to do it in the United States?
Like you said, Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading the DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency. So from your experience this year as president of Argentina and every chainsaw economic policies that you’ve implemented, what advice would you give to Elon and Vivek about how to do it in the United States?
Javier Milei
Just cut to the chase. Cut to the chase. Simple as that. I’ll tell you a story and you’re going to love it. Currently in Argentina, due to the political balance we’ve achieved, we have had certain powers delegated from Congress to the executive branch, and therefore we can resolve it by decree that the deregulation minister, Federico Sturzenegger, in his ministry shows a counter that displays in front of everyone there. He displays the number of days, all right, during which the delegated powers will continue to be valid. Therefore, he has a whole deregulation division, also a public spending cut division, and government structure reduction division, and he also has an elite corps that’s cleaning up all of the laws that hinder the economic system and progress. And every day, he removes between one and five economic restrictions.
Just cut to the chase. Cut to the chase. Simple as that. I’ll tell you a story and you’re going to love it. Currently in Argentina, due to the political balance we’ve achieved, we have had certain powers delegated from Congress to the executive branch, and therefore we can resolve it by decree that the deregulation minister, Federico Sturzenegger, in his ministry shows a counter that displays in front of everyone there. He displays the number of days, all right, during which the delegated powers will continue to be valid. Therefore, he has a whole deregulation division, also a public spending cut division, and government structure reduction division, and he also has an elite corps that’s cleaning up all of the laws that hinder the economic system and progress. And every day, he removes between one and five economic restrictions.
So, my advice would be for them to go all the way, to push it to the very limit, and do not give up. Do not let down their guard. Furthermore, that agenda does not have political purpose because at the end of the day, you are removing privileges. Of course, there will be people complaining, but those are people who are losing privileges, so they will have to explain society why they are keeping those privileges, and that is quite uncomfortable.
Donald Trump
Lex Fridman
You’ve spoken with Donald Trump, allegedly he called you his favorite president. What did you discuss? And maybe, again, what do you admire about President Trump and what do you learn from him?
You’ve spoken with Donald Trump, allegedly he called you his favorite president. What did you discuss? And maybe, again, what do you admire about President Trump and what do you learn from him?
Javier Milei
There are several things that I admire about President Trump. The first is that he probably… I think he’s provided ample proof of this in his first presidency. He understands the nature of the cultural battle. He has openly confronted socialism, his speeches openly target socialism, he perfectly understands the woke virus, and that is of great value because it means understanding what it’s all about.
There are several things that I admire about President Trump. The first is that he probably… I think he’s provided ample proof of this in his first presidency. He understands the nature of the cultural battle. He has openly confronted socialism, his speeches openly target socialism, he perfectly understands the woke virus, and that is of great value because it means understanding what it’s all about.
Another thing I truly admire about him is his courage. In fact, thankfully, thank goodness he didn’t get assassinated or killed, but it was by a small chance occurrence that could have killed him just because he moved at the right moment. And yet, that didn’t intimidate him and he went on. And in fact, during his first campaign, and in this one as well, in the second one and third one, they criticized him, insulted him, offended him, said awful things about him, made up all sorts of horrible stories about him. In that respect, I can say I deeply relate because probably no one in our history has had such a negative campaign from all the media like they did to me. But let’s say they were quite similar.
This is why it’s so interesting, and I was so deeply moved when last night I also got to meet Sylvester Stallone, because Sylvester Stallone talks about, well, how important is that no matter how hard they hit you and keep on hitting you all the time, despite all that, you keep going on and on and on. What I’m trying to say is that so many of Sylvester Stallone’s approaches are truly inspirational, don’t you think? So imagine, I’m about to give the speech and I see Sylvester Stallone and Sylvester Stallone knows me. It was truly insane. I had to pinch myself. I mean this can’t be true.
And besides, well, the people were wonderful with me last night. They’ve been wonderful today. I’ve taken hundreds of selfies. I mean it’s truly been… I would say it’s been my break, let me say, after almost a year in office and having to face all sorts of media torture because the journalists who have vested interests and are corrupt are professional torturers. Yes, because they invade your personal life, your family, and your privacy. Let me tell you something to show you the kind of garbage the media in Argentina can do. They send three drones to spy on me at my presidential residence, to spy on me. Do you think that’s right?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Javier Milei
Exactly. But that kind of thing happens in Argentina, not to mention the many lies and horrible things they say. I, for instance, remember that time when my father was hospitalized. My father is a man of a really strong character who has had two heart surgeries, all right? And one day, a journalist was saying all sorts of lies about my father. My father was hospitalized and he almost died of a heart attack. So that kind of thing is what journalism and the press do in Argentina. So they start to attack your private life, your mother, your father, your sister. Even my dogs that I absolutely adore, they are the most wonderful beings in the universe, they even target my four-legged children.
Exactly. But that kind of thing happens in Argentina, not to mention the many lies and horrible things they say. I, for instance, remember that time when my father was hospitalized. My father is a man of a really strong character who has had two heart surgeries, all right? And one day, a journalist was saying all sorts of lies about my father. My father was hospitalized and he almost died of a heart attack. So that kind of thing is what journalism and the press do in Argentina. So they start to attack your private life, your mother, your father, your sister. Even my dogs that I absolutely adore, they are the most wonderful beings in the universe, they even target my four-legged children.
So, imagine that I’ve been in office for nearly a year, a year as president, and since they can’t criticize my management except by lying and distorting the numbers, they meddle with all these things, things they have been doing all the time since the year 2021 when I officially entered politics. And I’ve seen what they’ve done to Trump. So, that also makes me relate a lot to him because he’s a true warrior. He’s a Viking, he’s a Viking, he’s literally a Viking. I mean he’s someone I admire for how he has kept fighting in the face of adversity, even against all odds. And still he managed to win. Amazing.
And that’s why I can relate that much. And I’ve also seen how he’s been unfairly criticized, like when he was accused of protectionism or when he wanted to discuss some matters within the context of public debate regarding the design of monetary policy as regards to Fed. And basically, they have accused him of things. I mean isn’t he entitled to give an opinion as a president? I mean any citizen could give their opinion, even more so a president.
US and Argentina relations
Lex Fridman
Why is it important to you that Argentina has a close relationship with the United States?
Why is it important to you that Argentina has a close relationship with the United States?
Javier Milei
Well, to us, that is truly important, okay? Because we’ve decided to be geopolitical allies of the United States ever since our campaign, we have decided that our allies will be the United States and Israel because they basically represent the ideas of the western world, they represent the free world. That is to say, what we would call today, let’s say, a liberal democracy by confronting the autocrats. And in that sense, that is the geopolitical alignment.
Well, to us, that is truly important, okay? Because we’ve decided to be geopolitical allies of the United States ever since our campaign, we have decided that our allies will be the United States and Israel because they basically represent the ideas of the western world, they represent the free world. That is to say, what we would call today, let’s say, a liberal democracy by confronting the autocrats. And in that sense, that is the geopolitical alignment.
Moreover, in our campaign, we were very, very clear on three main points. One, the economic pillar. We talked about cutting public spending and I would make my appearances with a chainsaw. We talked about economic freedom, deregulation, that is, and I talked about a competition of currencies, and people obviously were interested in the dollar. So, it was obvious that the economic policy was clear, all right? And not only was it clear, but we are also fulfilling it. That is the first point.
Second was our policy on security. The idea being to fight crime, I mean relentlessly as well as security, no mercy, right? And in fact, in Argentina, there are no more roadblocks, which they said were impossible to end. Not only that, we have strengthened the security forces and also our armed forces, and we are waging a tough battle against drug trafficking and narcoterrorism. Therefore, we are also strongly fulfilling that. Notice that these two points, which were the main concerns, they were the biggest concerns of Argentinians when we took office, are now in fifth and sixth place.
Today, the problem for Argentinians is corruption, whether there is unemployment, if there is poverty, but they don’t mention inflation and insecurity anymore. And besides, a third point that I made clear was that I would align with the United States and Israel internationally, and at my campaign rallies, there would be groups that would come along with flags of Israel. So, it’s clear that our international policy approach was always very clear and this is something I state during my speeches when I talk about the values of the west and the civilization of the west. In fact, yesterday, and even more so today during my speeches, I talked about how the different Greek groups or tribes go together to confront the Persians.
That is to say it seemed that from that time, 500 years before Christ until today, that struggle continues, right? But well, so of course we’re all in. We are betting on the United States becoming, once again a leader in the West. We needed someone to come back to make America great again. And as part of that process, being a commercial ally is also a great idea. So, we would really like to move forward and deepen our trade ties and our investment ties. And well, we would also like to be part of the NATO as well.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it’s still possible… One of the radical ideas you had as you were running for president was to dollarize the Argentine economy. Do you think that’s still a good idea? Are you still thinking about that?
Do you think it’s still possible… One of the radical ideas you had as you were running for president was to dollarize the Argentine economy. Do you think that’s still a good idea? Are you still thinking about that?
Javier Milei
Let’s see, let’s break it down. Let’s say, if you review all my statements, I talk about currency competition. I’m not strictly talking about dollarization, I’m talking about currency competition and eliminating the central bank. If people later decide to embrace the dollar, that is their choice. Ultimately, in the model I propose, what happens is the formation of a currency basket tailored to the needs of individuals.
Let’s see, let’s break it down. Let’s say, if you review all my statements, I talk about currency competition. I’m not strictly talking about dollarization, I’m talking about currency competition and eliminating the central bank. If people later decide to embrace the dollar, that is their choice. Ultimately, in the model I propose, what happens is the formation of a currency basket tailored to the needs of individuals.
But I won’t avoid the discussion. Today, there is currency competition. If, for instance, today in Argentina, you want to make transactions in any currency, you can do it and it’s allowed. Today there is currency competition. The other thing we talk about is the concept of, let’s suppose we were discussing dollarization. We talk about endogenous dollarization. The first point is that you need to clean up the central bank. We had to deal with the issue of the CIRA. That is the central bank’s commercial debt, which was $50 billion. We still have to resolve the dividend problem of $10 billion. And in the meantime, we did a write-off and cleaned up the central bank’s balance sheet by $45 billion. So, you can’t just close the central bank if it is bankrupt, because you need to redeem the whole central bank debt, which is about the issuing of money and the interest-bearing liabilities. So once we finished with the interest-bearing liabilities, it’ll leave us with the monetary base.
Therefore, today we have a regime where the amount of money is fixed, the monetary base is not growing, and as demand for money increases, since people can use dollars, they don’t need to go and sell the dollars and make the peso appreciate, but they can do transactions in dollars. So as the economy grows, you will have a greater share of dollars relative to pesos. And at some point, the amount of pesos compared to the dollars will be so huge relatively that closing down the central bank will be done easily, which means this is working.
Of course, if you were to give me the money right now, I would go ahead and dollarize. I’d have no problem with that. For example, I did have a proposal for this, and this could have worked, because the largest creditor of the Argentine treasury is the central bank, but central bank bonds were trading at 20 cents. If I had sold those bonds at 20 cents and nowadays they are trading between 60 and 70. With the whole bunch of Neanderthals that are the opposition, who besides being ignorant in economics, also have bad intentions, I would be in jail today.
Messi vs Maradona
Lex Fridman
Let me ask you a very important, difficult question. I’m a huge fan, have been my whole life, of Diego Maradona and Messi. So who, to you, is the greatest football player of all time?
Let me ask you a very important, difficult question. I’m a huge fan, have been my whole life, of Diego Maradona and Messi. So who, to you, is the greatest football player of all time?
Javier Milei
The way I see it, I have seen Maradona play, all right? I saw Maradona play in the past, I used to watch him, and I saw him during his last year at Argentinos Juniors before Boca Juniors in the year 1980, and I saw him in ’81. Playing for Boca, I saw him play in the youth selection in Japan in 1979. I truly have immensely enjoyed the talent of Maradona, but without a doubt, the best soccer player of all time, not just from Argentina, of all time, even better than Pelé, is Messi, of course.
The way I see it, I have seen Maradona play, all right? I saw Maradona play in the past, I used to watch him, and I saw him during his last year at Argentinos Juniors before Boca Juniors in the year 1980, and I saw him in ’81. Playing for Boca, I saw him play in the youth selection in Japan in 1979. I truly have immensely enjoyed the talent of Maradona, but without a doubt, the best soccer player of all time, not just from Argentina, of all time, even better than Pelé, is Messi, of course.
There is an article, which is quite old already now, titled Messi is Impossible. And it looks at all of the positions a soccer player plays in, that is all positions a soccer player can play in from midfield forward. And the most incredible thing is that Messi is the best in each of those positions. You can be the best in one or two positions. You see Cristiano Ronaldo, for example, was very good in two areas of the game. So much so that he was almost like Messi, but he didn’t take part in the rest. However, Messi is the best one in all respects. But at that time, of course. Nowadays, he’s an older player, right?
Javier Milei
He is an older player, right? And I’m not sure whether he can still keep that performance on all fronts, but honestly, I have never in my life seen a player like Messi. I have never seen no one like him, for real. Considering the goal average in the days of Pelé compared to Messi’s golden era and his career now, the number of equivalent goals is much greater than that of Pelé, therefore, without a doubt, Messi is the greatest soccer player of all time. No one compares to him.
He is an older player, right? And I’m not sure whether he can still keep that performance on all fronts, but honestly, I have never in my life seen a player like Messi. I have never seen no one like him, for real. Considering the goal average in the days of Pelé compared to Messi’s golden era and his career now, the number of equivalent goals is much greater than that of Pelé, therefore, without a doubt, Messi is the greatest soccer player of all time. No one compares to him.
Lex Fridman
But it’s not just the numbers or the World Cup win, it’s the moments of genius on the field. Messi is unlike any other in that way.
But it’s not just the numbers or the World Cup win, it’s the moments of genius on the field. Messi is unlike any other in that way.
Javier Milei
Messi does things that seem technically impossible, they seem physically impossible. The moves he makes don’t respect human logic. It’s like watching Usain Bolt run. It doesn’t feel possible. He moves in a way that doesn’t respect human logic, am I right?
Messi does things that seem technically impossible, they seem physically impossible. The moves he makes don’t respect human logic. It’s like watching Usain Bolt run. It doesn’t feel possible. He moves in a way that doesn’t respect human logic, am I right?
Lex Fridman
Did you watch the 1986 World Cup with Maradona, with the hand of God, with the game against England? What was that like?
Did you watch the 1986 World Cup with Maradona, with the hand of God, with the game against England? What was that like?
Javier Milei
Oh, yes, I do remember that very well. We watched it in the home of my godfather and saw how he did his gambit and dodged the England team. It was absolutely indescribable. There’s no way to put it into words. It’s as if I asked you to describe for me the love you have for your partner. You can’t do that, right? It’s something wonderful. You can’t describe it, you cannot put it into words. There are things where words just seem to fail, am I right? I really think that there are times when humans, or some humans, not all of them, actually. Some humans have the privilege of being able to vibrate closer to God.
Oh, yes, I do remember that very well. We watched it in the home of my godfather and saw how he did his gambit and dodged the England team. It was absolutely indescribable. There’s no way to put it into words. It’s as if I asked you to describe for me the love you have for your partner. You can’t do that, right? It’s something wonderful. You can’t describe it, you cannot put it into words. There are things where words just seem to fail, am I right? I really think that there are times when humans, or some humans, not all of them, actually. Some humans have the privilege of being able to vibrate closer to God.
Some Puccini arias, for example, when you listen to them, when you listen to the famous aria from La Rondine, or the famous aria from Gianni Schicchi, you get the feeling that he was getting sat dictated by God. How can you put that into words? You can’t. There’s no way you do that. Those moments where we humans, that we have the privilege, I say it as human beings, because I’m speaking from that perspective. I say this only as an admirer.
Some human beings have the ability to vibrate so close to God that you can’t describe it, you can only enjoy it. This is why, in Judaism, they don’t use the name of God, of the Creator, because how could you put in words something like that? And I believe those are times when us humans connect closer to the Creator and create unique things, you cannot describe them. There are no words to describe that. The only thing you can do is enjoy it and be thankful that you can witness it.
Lex Fridman
You were a great footballer yourself in your youth. You were a goalkeeper. Many people would say that’s the toughest and the most important position in football. Maybe you could speak about that experience and, in general, what’s harder; being a goalkeeper or president?
You were a great footballer yourself in your youth. You were a goalkeeper. Many people would say that’s the toughest and the most important position in football. Maybe you could speak about that experience and, in general, what’s harder; being a goalkeeper or president?
Javier Milei
Lovely question. Well, indeed, I used to be a goalkeeper, but I’m not so sure about whether I was any good. But the experience of having been a goalkeeper is very valuable. First, the goalkeeper is the only player that can use their hands, in a certain sector of the pitch in the area. The other thing is that he’s also the only player who dresses differently. Moreover, their training is a solitary one. And the most important, it is the very climax, the goal, right? When the goal is called by their team, everyone is celebrating on the other side and the goalkeeper is on his own.
Lovely question. Well, indeed, I used to be a goalkeeper, but I’m not so sure about whether I was any good. But the experience of having been a goalkeeper is very valuable. First, the goalkeeper is the only player that can use their hands, in a certain sector of the pitch in the area. The other thing is that he’s also the only player who dresses differently. Moreover, their training is a solitary one. And the most important, it is the very climax, the goal, right? When the goal is called by their team, everyone is celebrating on the other side and the goalkeeper is on his own.
And at the same time, he’s the one who suffers the most when a goal is scored, because he gets the direct impact. In fact, when the goalkeeper makes a mistake, it’s an own goal. Imagine a teammate scores a wonderful goal like the one Maradona did. It’s marvelous. And that’s just one goal. And imagine the goalkeeper picks up the ball, and then, if they bring it into the area wrongly, it’s like two goals, it’s a complete lack of proportion. So, therefore, and this, in my opinion, makes goalkeepers have a very strong temperament.
They’re used to being alone, and power is precisely that. Because when you make decisions, you are on your own. And not just that, but also when you have a responsibility, like that of a president, when you make a decision, it has an impact on millions of people. So just like goalkeepers, if you make a mistake and score an own goal, and in this context it’s negative consequences for millions of people. Therefore, that has been part of the university of life that has given me the tools to be president today. That is my training in economics, my training in liberalism, having been a goalkeeper, and also having had a very tough childhood.
God
Lex Fridman
How hard is it? What’s been the personal toll of carrying the hope of a nation on your shoulders?
How hard is it? What’s been the personal toll of carrying the hope of a nation on your shoulders?
Javier Milei
Well, being defamed, insulted, and attacked every single day, but again, there’s no point in life if it’s not with freedom. So, like Sylvester Stallone once said, “The secret to life is to carry on in spite of the blows you get, the punches you take.” And fortunately, we have been able to carry on in spite of the blows, both coming at us from in front and from behind our backs, because it have been more honest if we had been attacked directly. But well, in Argentina politics and the mass media, they do love to attack behind your back.
Well, being defamed, insulted, and attacked every single day, but again, there’s no point in life if it’s not with freedom. So, like Sylvester Stallone once said, “The secret to life is to carry on in spite of the blows you get, the punches you take.” And fortunately, we have been able to carry on in spite of the blows, both coming at us from in front and from behind our backs, because it have been more honest if we had been attacked directly. But well, in Argentina politics and the mass media, they do love to attack behind your back.
Lex Fridman
What role has God played in your life? And who is God?
What role has God played in your life? And who is God?
Javier Milei
Well, faith, I’d say, has been a very fundamental element. And especially in recent times, during which I’ve become actively involved, particularly in the teachings of Judaism and in the study of the Torah. This has given me, let’s say, a huge background to face the many adversities which I’ve encountered and had to overcome in the last few years. And as to who God is, He’s the Creator, the Maker. I call Him, The One.
Well, faith, I’d say, has been a very fundamental element. And especially in recent times, during which I’ve become actively involved, particularly in the teachings of Judaism and in the study of the Torah. This has given me, let’s say, a huge background to face the many adversities which I’ve encountered and had to overcome in the last few years. And as to who God is, He’s the Creator, the Maker. I call Him, The One.
Lex Fridman
What is a better guide for humanity; the invisible hand of the market or the hand of God?
What is a better guide for humanity; the invisible hand of the market or the hand of God?
Javier Milei
They’re perfectly in sync.
They’re perfectly in sync.
Elvis and Rolling Stones
Lex Fridman
Well enough. Again, going back to your youth, you were a lead singer in a rock band. Who’s the greatest rock star of all time?
Well enough. Again, going back to your youth, you were a lead singer in a rock band. Who’s the greatest rock star of all time?
Javier Milei
Okay. Well, the way I see it, the most amazing rock singer in history of mankind was definitely Elvis Presley. And my favorite band is the Rolling Stones. So I also greatly admire Mick Jagger, and I still have this dream of getting to meet him in person.
Okay. Well, the way I see it, the most amazing rock singer in history of mankind was definitely Elvis Presley. And my favorite band is the Rolling Stones. So I also greatly admire Mick Jagger, and I still have this dream of getting to meet him in person.
Lex Fridman
How fun would it be to play together with the Stones?
How fun would it be to play together with the Stones?
Javier Milei
That would be a big, big dream. Don’t get my hopes up, because I set goals and then I go and achieve them.
That would be a big, big dream. Don’t get my hopes up, because I set goals and then I go and achieve them.
Lex Fridman
Well, I’m close friends with a band that opens for the Stones, so I would love to see this happen.
Well, I’m close friends with a band that opens for the Stones, so I would love to see this happen.
Javier Milei
Oh, well, that would be great. Or we could also watch the whole concert from the stage. I can’t keep ruining the Rolling Stones’ music. I already had a tribute band and did quite a lot of damage to their music.
Oh, well, that would be great. Or we could also watch the whole concert from the stage. I can’t keep ruining the Rolling Stones’ music. I already had a tribute band and did quite a lot of damage to their music.
Lex Fridman
How much does your rock star roots define your approach to politics, to life? Do you see yourself as a showman in part?
How much does your rock star roots define your approach to politics, to life? Do you see yourself as a showman in part?
Javier Milei
Of course. Absolutely. My idea is that, when you attend one of our events, it feels like going to a Rolling Stones concert. In fact, in one of my most recent performances at Luna Park, I even had the pleasure of singing in front of 10,000 people. It’s on YouTube. No, sorry, not on YouTube, it’s on my Instagram feed. At that event, I sang a song called Panic Show, and the song starts by saying, “Hi, everybody. I am the lion.”
Of course. Absolutely. My idea is that, when you attend one of our events, it feels like going to a Rolling Stones concert. In fact, in one of my most recent performances at Luna Park, I even had the pleasure of singing in front of 10,000 people. It’s on YouTube. No, sorry, not on YouTube, it’s on my Instagram feed. At that event, I sang a song called Panic Show, and the song starts by saying, “Hi, everybody. I am the lion.”
Lex Fridman
Your intensity and passion have earned you the nickname El Loco, the madman. Do you think some madness is necessary to challenge the powerful establishment?
Your intensity and passion have earned you the nickname El Loco, the madman. Do you think some madness is necessary to challenge the powerful establishment?
Javier Milei
Well, maybe it’s a matter of perspective. It could be the other way around, that everyone else is crazy by living in a way contrary to the ideas of freedom. And so, maybe the sane person who wants to fix that is then considered a madman. Anyway, the nickname doesn’t bother me at all. In fact, I even enjoy it, because I’ve been called like that since I was 10 years old, so it’s not something that particularly bothers me, because it’s a nickname that… Well, it has been used for many years, but actually, if I present to you the case of San Martin, when he said he was going to cross the Andes to liberate not only Argentina, not only our country, but also Chile and Peru, and people called him crazy.
Well, maybe it’s a matter of perspective. It could be the other way around, that everyone else is crazy by living in a way contrary to the ideas of freedom. And so, maybe the sane person who wants to fix that is then considered a madman. Anyway, the nickname doesn’t bother me at all. In fact, I even enjoy it, because I’ve been called like that since I was 10 years old, so it’s not something that particularly bothers me, because it’s a nickname that… Well, it has been used for many years, but actually, if I present to you the case of San Martin, when he said he was going to cross the Andes to liberate not only Argentina, not only our country, but also Chile and Peru, and people called him crazy.
Imagine if you had tried and spoken with, I don’t know, Michelangelo, you would have called him crazy too. Or if you had talked to, I don’t know, hundreds of people who have changed the world, surely they would have thought that Einstein was crazy and so on, the list would be infinite. So, what is the difference between a madman and a genius? Success.
Free market
Lex Fridman
Let me ask you about the market. It’s so interesting, from your view of the world, how powerful the market is at figuring out what’s best for society. Why do you think the market works so well as a guide for humanity?
Let me ask you about the market. It’s so interesting, from your view of the world, how powerful the market is at figuring out what’s best for society. Why do you think the market works so well as a guide for humanity?
Javier Milei
One must first understand what the market is. Simply put, the market is a process of voluntary exchange, where individuals cooperate through the transfer of property rights, in which private property is upheld. This is the system that drives the allocation of resources. In essence, socialism, and this is what Mises condemns in his book, Socialism, shows that without private property, prices cease to exist and therefore resources are diverted. Why don’t you think it’s the same to make a road of asphalt or gold? Why not make it of gold? Because you have an understanding of economic calculation, you have an idea of prices in your mind. So, in this context, if there is no private property, there are no prices, and as a result, the free market capitalism is the best mechanism ever developed by humankind for resource allocation.
One must first understand what the market is. Simply put, the market is a process of voluntary exchange, where individuals cooperate through the transfer of property rights, in which private property is upheld. This is the system that drives the allocation of resources. In essence, socialism, and this is what Mises condemns in his book, Socialism, shows that without private property, prices cease to exist and therefore resources are diverted. Why don’t you think it’s the same to make a road of asphalt or gold? Why not make it of gold? Because you have an understanding of economic calculation, you have an idea of prices in your mind. So, in this context, if there is no private property, there are no prices, and as a result, the free market capitalism is the best mechanism ever developed by humankind for resource allocation.
This also implies that markets must be free. Free from state intervention, because when the state intervenes, it creates interference. And markets need to allow free entry and exit, what we call competition. However, it’s better to understand competition in the sense described by Israel Gerstner, one of the foremost figures of the Austrian school. Or in the neoclassical framework as William Baumel understood it, which was the concept of free entry and exit in so-called contestable markets. And also, let’s talk about what pertains to the division of labor and social co-operation.
The most wonderful thing about capitalism is that you can only be successful by serving others with better quality goods at a better price. If you are successful in the free market capitalism, you are a hero, you are a social benefactor, you are a prosperity machine. So the better you do, the better it is for society. This is very important. I remember when I had my first meeting with Elon Musk, and this made me admire him greatly, and this is something my sister commented on too.
Elon Musk told me something he does every day. He wakes up every morning thinking about what problem he could fix for humanity. That’s amazing. Of course, what is the counterpart? Being successful. Therefore, in that sense, and moreover in my view on how the system works, on how the market works, market failures do not exist. That is to say, that is a problem. A problem for neoclassical economies because of the mathematical tools they’ve used to develop economic analysis. But actually, it’s not a real issue in everyday life, it’s a problem in the minds of economists. In fact, my latest book called Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap deals precisely with this issue.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you’ve outlined these ideas in Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap. So the trap is that there’s no such thing as a middle ground. It’s either capitalism, socialism, and every middle ground ends up in a state of socialism.
Yeah, you’ve outlined these ideas in Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap. So the trap is that there’s no such thing as a middle ground. It’s either capitalism, socialism, and every middle ground ends up in a state of socialism.
Javier Milei
Well, actually, that is what Mises said. He said that there are only two systems; free enterprise capitalism and socialism. And he also pointed out, and this is proven in Hayek’s book, the Road to Serfdom, that any middle ground solution is unstable in terms of capitalism, meaning it tends towards socialism. So when you implement an intervention, it causes government failure, which then triggers further intervention, setting up a trap that results in more and more intervention. And in this context, the neoclassicals, with their market failure theory, are in fact dealing with problems that are fundamentally mathematical. Rather than making the world a better place, they have, if you will, been instrumental in increasing the levels of intervention. Let me tell you something.
Well, actually, that is what Mises said. He said that there are only two systems; free enterprise capitalism and socialism. And he also pointed out, and this is proven in Hayek’s book, the Road to Serfdom, that any middle ground solution is unstable in terms of capitalism, meaning it tends towards socialism. So when you implement an intervention, it causes government failure, which then triggers further intervention, setting up a trap that results in more and more intervention. And in this context, the neoclassicals, with their market failure theory, are in fact dealing with problems that are fundamentally mathematical. Rather than making the world a better place, they have, if you will, been instrumental in increasing the levels of intervention. Let me tell you something.
Well, I have an economist as chairman of the President’s Advisory Council, Dr. Demian Reidel, who studied here at Harvard University and completed his PhD, was mentored by Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist. And Rogoff has said that Dr. Reidel was his best student. Nowadays, we’re actually working with Dr. Reidel specifically on all these issues that arise from the interventions proposed by the mainstream, such as the so-called correction of market failures. And a few days ago, he conducted a survey of search algorithms and policy recommendations, and that resulted in a map painted from red to blue.
And well, the redder it was, the more it was linked to socialism, there was an intermediate thing that was yellow, and blue was free market ideas. And one of the things he discovered, as part of that graph or chart, was that the largest number of policy recommendations, scandalously, are actually left-leaning. So that is the empirical evidence of what I pointed out in the book, Capitalism, Socialism, and the Neoclassical Trap.
Loyalty
Lex Fridman
You mentioned your four-legged children. What have you learned about life from your dogs?
You mentioned your four-legged children. What have you learned about life from your dogs?
Javier Milei
Well, from my four-legged children, I have learned unconditional love. In fact, well, my name in Hebrew means loyal friend, faithful friend, and on the Chinese horoscope, I am dog. And if there’s one thing that defines me is loyalty, being decent. And those virtues, you can find them in those wonderful beings that dogs are, who love unconditionally. In fact, they are superior beings, spiritually speaking in my case, because I don’t forget or forgive those who have harmed me. That is to say, all those who have insulted, defamed me, and criticized me, I remember each one of them, but I don’t have the greatness needed to forgive them.
Well, from my four-legged children, I have learned unconditional love. In fact, well, my name in Hebrew means loyal friend, faithful friend, and on the Chinese horoscope, I am dog. And if there’s one thing that defines me is loyalty, being decent. And those virtues, you can find them in those wonderful beings that dogs are, who love unconditionally. In fact, they are superior beings, spiritually speaking in my case, because I don’t forget or forgive those who have harmed me. That is to say, all those who have insulted, defamed me, and criticized me, I remember each one of them, but I don’t have the greatness needed to forgive them.
Lex Fridman
On the topic of loyalty in politics, I’m sure there’s been a lot of people, some people, who have betrayed you. Does that hurt your heart?
On the topic of loyalty in politics, I’m sure there’s been a lot of people, some people, who have betrayed you. Does that hurt your heart?
Javier Milei
It depends, because you sometimes think that you can expect some people to be loyal, and if they betray you, of course that hurts. But some people, you actually don’t expect anything from them, so if there’s betrayal, you won’t be annoyed or feel bad, because you owe it to someone who didn’t share your values. But politics does have that. Sometimes, many of the people you may come across don’t have the values you advocate for, but it’s cost benefit. You need to let the ship sail on. Or would you rather let it sink? That’s not my case. I fight until the end. There are traitors, but that’s part of politics. And that’s not my line, but of course, they do exist.
It depends, because you sometimes think that you can expect some people to be loyal, and if they betray you, of course that hurts. But some people, you actually don’t expect anything from them, so if there’s betrayal, you won’t be annoyed or feel bad, because you owe it to someone who didn’t share your values. But politics does have that. Sometimes, many of the people you may come across don’t have the values you advocate for, but it’s cost benefit. You need to let the ship sail on. Or would you rather let it sink? That’s not my case. I fight until the end. There are traitors, but that’s part of politics. And that’s not my line, but of course, they do exist.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
There are a lot of people who admire your revolutionary spirit. What advice would you give them, maybe young people, on how to live a life like yours and have an impact on the world, like you have begun to do?
There are a lot of people who admire your revolutionary spirit. What advice would you give them, maybe young people, on how to live a life like yours and have an impact on the world, like you have begun to do?
Javier Milei
I didn’t do this thinking about having an impact on the world. I have defined what makes me happy and I live according to that. I live consistently by that. And most importantly, I would say never give up. Moreover, and above all, never be half-hearted. I would rather cry because I failed, rather than not crying because I never tried. I’m a perfectionist, so when I do err, of course, I have a bad time. But still, I prefer to go and get things done. If it goes wrong, it’s part of life, but I will never have to regret not having done what I thought needed to be done at that moment.
I didn’t do this thinking about having an impact on the world. I have defined what makes me happy and I live according to that. I live consistently by that. And most importantly, I would say never give up. Moreover, and above all, never be half-hearted. I would rather cry because I failed, rather than not crying because I never tried. I’m a perfectionist, so when I do err, of course, I have a bad time. But still, I prefer to go and get things done. If it goes wrong, it’s part of life, but I will never have to regret not having done what I thought needed to be done at that moment.
Hope for Argentina
Lex Fridman
What gives you hope about the future of Argentina and the future of humanity?
What gives you hope about the future of Argentina and the future of humanity?
Javier Milei
Well, the fact that, thanks to social media and to the whole tech revolution going on, every day, more and more people are becoming aware of how important freedom is to live. To live in peace and prosperity. And I believe, even though bureaucrats and the elites fight untiringly to enslave us, a wave of freedom has been unleashed, which, if we do wage the fight, we’ll have a much better world.
Well, the fact that, thanks to social media and to the whole tech revolution going on, every day, more and more people are becoming aware of how important freedom is to live. To live in peace and prosperity. And I believe, even though bureaucrats and the elites fight untiringly to enslave us, a wave of freedom has been unleashed, which, if we do wage the fight, we’ll have a much better world.
Lex Fridman
What does your famous words of viva la libertad… How did that come about and what does it mean to you?
What does your famous words of viva la libertad… How did that come about and what does it mean to you?
Javier Milei
Long live freedom, dammit. That first started while I was giving my book presentations. At the end of my presentation, I would say, “Viva la libertad, carajo,” and that really stuck with me since then. Without thinking about it, throughout my life, it was going to continue being present. In fact, today, my presentations, all of my speeches end with, “May God bless the Argentinians. May the forces of heaven be with us. And viva la libertad, carajo.” The first phrase reflects my faith in God, fervently, and that I’m deeply thankful to the Creator for the wonderful things He has bestowed upon me daily. The second one has to do with a quote from the book of Maccabees 3:19, which says that “victory in battle doesn’t depend on the size of the army, but on the forces of heaven.” This has to do with the victory of the Jewish people, the Maccabeans, against the Greeks and how they recovered the temple. And the last one, well, is my war cry.
Long live freedom, dammit. That first started while I was giving my book presentations. At the end of my presentation, I would say, “Viva la libertad, carajo,” and that really stuck with me since then. Without thinking about it, throughout my life, it was going to continue being present. In fact, today, my presentations, all of my speeches end with, “May God bless the Argentinians. May the forces of heaven be with us. And viva la libertad, carajo.” The first phrase reflects my faith in God, fervently, and that I’m deeply thankful to the Creator for the wonderful things He has bestowed upon me daily. The second one has to do with a quote from the book of Maccabees 3:19, which says that “victory in battle doesn’t depend on the size of the army, but on the forces of heaven.” This has to do with the victory of the Jewish people, the Maccabeans, against the Greeks and how they recovered the temple. And the last one, well, is my war cry.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s no better way to end it. Thank you for being a warrior for freedom, and thank you for talking today.
Well, there’s no better way to end it. Thank you for being a warrior for freedom, and thank you for talking today.
Javier Milei
Thank you very much indeed for your interview. And thank you for being so well-educated, because very often interviewers are not like that. And you did have windows to play foul and you didn’t, and I recognize that and I thank you for that.
Thank you very much indeed for your interview. And thank you for being so well-educated, because very often interviewers are not like that. And you did have windows to play foul and you didn’t, and I recognize that and I thank you for that.
Lex Fridman
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Javier Milei. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from George Orwell. “In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Dario Amodei: Anthropic CEO on Claude, AGI & the Future of AI & Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #452
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #452 with Dario Amodei.
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I think there are still worlds where it doesn’t happen in 100 years. The number of those worlds is rapidly decreasing. We are rapidly running out of truly convincing blockers, truly compelling reasons why this will not happen in the next few years. The scale-up is very quick. We do this today, we make a model, and then we deploy thousands, maybe tens of thousands of instances of it. I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these.
I am optimistic about meaning. I worry about economics and the concentration of power. That’s actually what I worry about more, the abuse of power.
I’m also joined afterwards by two other brilliant people from Anthropic. First Amanda Askell, who is a researcher working on alignment and fine-tuning of Claude, including the design of Claude’s character and personality. A few folks told me she has probably talked with Claude more than any human at Anthropic. So she was definitely a fascinating person to talk to about prompt engineering and practical advice on how to get the best out of Claude.
After that, Chris Olah stopped by for a chat. He’s one of the pioneers of the field of mechanistic interpretability, which is an exciting set of efforts that aims to reverse engineering neural networks, to figure out what’s going on inside, inferring behaviors from neural activation patterns inside the network. This is a very promising approach for keeping future super-intelligent AI systems safe. For example, by detecting from the activations when the model is trying to deceive the human it is talking to.
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And in some ways it was fortunate, you can have almost beginner’s luck. I was like a newcomer to the field. And I looked at the neural net that we were using for speech, the recurrent neural networks, and I said, “I don’t know, what if you make them bigger and give them more layers? And what if you scale up the data along with this?” I just saw these as independent dials that you could turn. And I noticed that the models started to do better and better as you gave them more data, as you made the models larger, as you trained them for longer. And I didn’t measure things precisely in those days, but along with colleagues, we very much got the informal sense that the more data and the more compute and the more training you put into these models, the better they perform.
And so initially my thinking was, “Hey, maybe that is just true for speech recognition systems. Maybe that’s just one particular quirk, one particular area.” I think it wasn’t until 2017 when I first saw the results from GPT-1 that it clicked for me that language is probably the area in which we can do this. We can get trillions of words of language data, we can train on them. And the models we were trained in those days were tiny. You could train them on one to eight GPUs, whereas now we train jobs on tens of thousands, soon going to hundreds of thousands of GPUs.
And so when I saw those two things together, and there were a few people like Ilya Sudskever who you’ve interviewed, who had somewhat similar views. He might’ve been the first one, although I think a few people came to similar views around the same time, right? There was Rich Sutton’s bitter lesson, Gwern wrote about the scaling hypothesis. But I think somewhere between 2014 and 2017 was when it really clicked for me, when I really got conviction that, “Hey, we’re going to be able to these incredibly wide cognitive tasks if we just scale up the models.”
And at every stage of scaling, there are always arguments. And when I first heard them honestly, I thought, “Probably I’m the one who’s wrong and all these experts in the field are right. They know the situation better than I do, right?” There’s the Chomsky argument about, “You can get syntactics but you can’t get semantics.” There was this idea, “Oh, you can make a sentence make sense, but you can’t make a paragraph make sense.” The latest one we have today is, “We’re going to run out of data, or the data isn’t high quality enough or models can’t reason.”
And each time, every time, we manage to either find a way around or scaling just is the way around. Sometimes it’s one, sometimes it’s the other. And so I’m now at this point, I still think it’s always quite uncertain. We have nothing but inductive inference to tell us that the next two years are going to be like the last 10 years. But I’ve seen the movie enough times, I’ve seen the story happen for enough times to really believe that probably the scaling is going to continue, and that there’s some magic to it that we haven’t really explained on a theoretical basis yet.
And I think what it amounts to, is that if you look at a lot of things that are produced by some natural process that has a lot of different scales, not a Gaussian, which is kind of narrowly distributed, but if I look at large and small fluctuations that lead to electrical noise, they have this decaying one over X distribution. And so now I think of patterns in the physical world or in language. If I think about the patterns in language, there are some really simple patterns, some words are much more common than others, like the. Then there’s basic noun-verb structure. Then there’s the fact that nouns and verbs have to agree, they have to coordinate. And there’s the higher-level sentence structure. Then there’s the thematic structure of paragraphs. And so the fact that there’s this regressing structure, you can imagine that as you make the networks larger, first they capture the really simple correlations, the really simple patterns, and there’s this long tail of other patterns.
And if that long tail of other patterns is really smooth like it is with the one over F noise in physical processes like resistors, then you can imagine as you make the network larger, it’s kind of capturing more and more of that distribution. And so that smoothness gets reflected in how well the models are at predicting and how well they perform.
Language is an evolved process. We’ve developed language, we have common words and less common words. We have common expressions and less common expressions. We have ideas, cliches, that are expressed frequently, and we have novel ideas. And that process has developed, has evolved with humans over millions of years. And so the guess, and this is pure speculation, would be that there’s some kind of long tail distribution of the distribution of these ideas.
If I look at an area like biology, and I wrote this essay, Machines of Loving Grace, it seems to me that humans are struggling to understand the complexity of biology. If you go to Stanford or to Harvard or to Berkeley, you have whole departments of folks trying to study the immune system or metabolic pathways, and each person understands only a tiny bit, a part of it, specializes. And they’re struggling to combine their knowledge with that of other humans. And so I have an instinct that there’s a lot of room at the top for AIs to get smarter.
If I think of something like materials in the physical world, or addressing conflicts between humans or something like that, I mean it may be there’s only some of these problems are not intractable, but much harder. And it may be that there’s only so well you can do at some of these things. Just like with speech recognition, there’s only so clear I can hear your speech. So I think in some areas there may be ceilings that are very close to what humans have done. In other areas, those ceilings may be very far away. I think we’ll only find out when we build these systems. It’s very hard to know in advance. We can speculate, but we can’t be sure.
I think in terms of drug development, my view is that we’re too slow and we’re too conservative. But certainly if you get these things wrong, it’s possible to risk people’s lives by being too reckless. And so at least some of these human institutions are in fact protecting people. So it’s all about finding the balance. I strongly suspect that balance is kind of more on the side of wishing to make things happen faster, but there is a balance.
That said, we, and I would guess other companies, are working on ways to make data synthetic, where you can use the model to generate more data of the type that you have already, or even generate data from scratch. If you think about what was done with DeepMind’s AlphaGo Zero, they managed to get a bot all the way from no ability to play Go whatsoever to above human level, just by playing against itself. There was no example data from humans required in the AlphaGo Zero version of it.
The other direction of course, is these reasoning models that do chain of thought and stop to think and reflect on their own thinking. In a way that’s another kind of synthetic data coupled with reinforcement learning. So my guess is with one of those methods, we’ll get around the data limitation or there may be other sources of data that are available. We could just observe that, even if there’s no problem with data, as we start to scale models up, they just stopped getting better. It seemed to be a reliable observation that they’ve gotten better, that could just stop at some point for a reason we don’t understand.
The answer could be that we need to invent some new architecture. There have been problems in the past with say, numerical stability of models where it looked like things were leveling off, but actually when we found the right unblocker, they didn’t end up doing so. So perhaps there’s some new optimization method or some new technique we need to unblock things. I’ve seen no evidence of that so far, but if things were to slow down, that perhaps could be one reason.
Now, if we get to a hundred billion, that’s still not enough compute, that’s still not enough scale, then either we need even more scale, or we need to develop some way of doing it more efficiently of shifting the curve. I think between all of these, one of the reasons I’m bullish about powerful AI happening so fast, is just that if you extrapolate the next few points on the curve, we’re very quickly getting towards human level ability.
Some of the new models that we developed, some reasoning models that have come from other companies, they’re starting to get to what I would call the PhD or professional level. If you look at their coding ability, the latest model we released, Sonnet 3.5, the new or updated version, it gets something like 50% on SWE-bench. And SWE-bench is an example of a bunch of professional real-world software engineering tasks. At the beginning of the year, I think the state of the art was 3 or 4%. So in 10 months we’ve gone from 3% to 50% on this task. And I think in another year we’ll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don’t know, but might even be less than that.
We’ve seen similar things in graduate-level math, physics, and biology from models like OpenAi’s o1. So if we just continue to extrapolate this in terms of skill that we have, I think if we extrapolate the straight curve, within a few years, we will get to these models being above the highest professional level in terms of humans. Now, will that curve continue? You’ve pointed to, and I’ve pointed to a lot of possible reasons why that might not happen. But if the extrapolation curve continues, that is the trajectory we’re on.
I’ll give a few examples of this. Early in the history of Anthropic, one of our co-founders, Chris Olah, who I believe you’re interviewing soon, he’s the co-founder of the field of mechanistic interpretability, which is an attempt to understand what’s going on inside AI models. So we had him and one of our early teams focus on this area of interpretability, which we think is good for making models safe and transparent.
For three or four years that had no commercial application whatsoever. It still doesn’t. Today we’re doing some early betas with it, and probably it will eventually, but this is a very, very long research bed, and one in which we’ve built in public and shared our results publicly. And we did this because we think it’s a way to make models safer. An interesting thing is that as we’ve done this, other companies have started doing it as well. In some cases because they’ve been inspired by it, in some cases because they’re worried that if other companies are doing this, look more responsible, they want to look more responsible too. No one wants to look like the irresponsible actor. And so they adopt this as well. When folks come to Anthropic, interpretability is often a draw, and I tell them, “The other places you didn’t go, tell them why you came here.” And then you see soon that there’s interpretability teams elsewhere as well.
And in a way that takes away our competitive advantage, because it’s like, “Oh, now others are doing it as well.” But it’s good for the broader system, and so we have to invent some new thing that we’re doing that others aren’t doing as well. And the hope is to basically bid up the importance of doing the right thing. And it’s not about us in particular. It’s not about having one particular good guy. Other companies can do this as well. If they join the race to do this, that’s the best news ever. It’s about shaping the incentives to point upward instead of shaping the incentives to point downward.
We demonstrated this a bit with the Golden Gate Bridge Claude. So this was an experiment where we found a direction inside one of the neural networks layers that corresponded to the Golden Gate Bridge. And we just turned that way up. And so we released this model as a demo, it was kind of half a joke, for a couple days, but it was illustrative of the method we developed. And you could take the model, you could ask it about anything. It would be like you could say, “How was your day?” And anything you asked, because this feature was activated, it would connect to the Golden Gate Bridge. So it would say, I’m feeling relaxed and expansive, much like the arches of the Golden Gate Bridge, or-
But then there’s a lot of practical applications in a business sense where it’s like I’m interacting with a website, I am doing my taxes, or I’m talking to a legal advisor and I want to analyze a contract. Or we have plenty of companies that are just like, I want to do auto-complete on my IDE or something. And for all of those things, you want to act fast and you want to use the model very broadly. So we wanted to serve that whole spectrum of needs. So we ended up with this kind of poetry theme. And so what’s a really short poem? It’s a haiku. Haiku is the small, fast, cheap model that was at the time, was really surprisingly intelligent for how fast and cheap it was.
Sonnet is a medium-sized poem, write a couple paragraphs. And so Sonnet was the middle model. It is smarter but also a little bit slower, a little bit more expensive. And Opus, like a Magnum Opus is a large work, Opus was the largest, smartest model at the time. So that was the original kind of thinking behind it.
And our thinking then was, “Well, each new generation of models should shift that trade- off curve.” So when we released Sonnet 3.5, it has roughly the same cost and speed as the Sonnet 3 model, but it increased its intelligence to the point where it was smarter than the original Opus 3 model. Especially for code, but also just in general. And so now we’ve shown results for Haiku 3.5. And I believe Haiku 3.5, the smallest new model, is about as good as Opus 3, the largest old model. So basically the aim here is to shift the curve and then at some point there’s going to be an Opus 3.5.
Now every new generation of models has its own thing. They use new data, their personality changes in ways that we try to steer but are not fully able to steer. And so there’s never quite that exact equivalence, where the only thing you’re changing is intelligence. We always try and improve other things and some things change without us knowing or measuring. So it’s very much an inexact science. In many ways, the manner and personality of these models is more an art than it is a science.
There’s then a kind of post-training phase where we do reinforcement learning from human feedback as well as other kinds of reinforcement learning. That phase is getting larger and larger now, and often that’s less of an exact science. It often takes effort to get it right. Models are then tested with some of our early partners to see how good they are, and they’re then tested, both internally and externally, for their safety, particularly for catastrophic and autonomy risks. So we do internal testing according to our responsible scaling policy, which I could talk more about that in detail.
And then we have an agreement with the US and the UK AI Safety Institute, as well as other third-party testers in specific domains, to test the models for what are called CBRN risks, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear. We don’t think that models pose these risks seriously yet, but every new model we want to evaluate to see if we’re starting to get close to some of these more dangerous capabilities. So those are the phases, and then it just takes some time to get the model working in terms of inference and launching it in the API. So there’s just a lot of steps to actually making a model work. And of course, we’re always trying to make the processes as streamlined as possible.
We want our safety testing to be rigorous, but we want it to be rigorous and to be automatic, to happen as fast as it can, without compromising on rigor. Same with our pre-training process and our post-training process. So it’s just building anything else. It’s just like building airplanes. You want to make them safe, but you want to make the process streamlined. And I think the creative tension between those is an important thing in making the models work.
So again, the water line is rising. And then I think the new Sonnet has been even better. In terms of what it takes, I’ll just say it’s been across the board. It’s in the pre-training, it’s in the post-training, it’s in various evaluations that we do. We’ve observed this as well. And if we go into the details of the benchmark, so SWE-bench is basically… Since you’re a programmer, you’ll be familiar with pull requests, and just pull requests, they’re like a sort of atomic unit of work. You could say I’m implementing one thing.
So SWE-bench actually gives you a real world situation where the code base is in a current state and I’m trying to implement something that’s described in language. We have internal benchmarks where we measure the same thing and you say, “Just give the model free rein to do anything, run anything, edit anything. How well is it able to complete these tasks?” And it’s that benchmark that’s gone from “it can do it 3% of the time” to “it can do it about 50% of the time.”
So I actually do believe that you can gain benchmarks, but I think if we get to 100% on that benchmark in a way that isn’t over-trained or game for that particular benchmark, probably represents a real and serious increase in programming ability. And I would suspect that if we can get to 90, 95% that it will represent ability to autonomously do a significant fraction of software engineering tasks.
The trouble starts already when some of them take a lot longer than others to train. That already messes up your time a little bit. But as you make big improvement in pre-training, then you suddenly notice, “Oh, I can make better pre-train model.” And that doesn’t take very long to do, but clearly it has the same size and shape of previous models. So I think those two together as well as the timing issues. Any kind of scheme you come up with, the reality tends to frustrate that scheme, right? It tends to break out of the scheme.
It’s not like software where you can say, “Oh, this is 3.7, this is 3.8.” No, you have models with different trade-offs. You can change some things in your models, you can change other things. Some are faster and slower at inference. Some have to be more expensive, some have to be less expensive. And so I think all the companies have struggled with this. I think we were in a good position in terms of naming when we had Haiku, Sonnet and Opus.
And we have a whole team focused on, I think we call it Claude character. Amanda leads that team and we’ll talk to you about that, but it’s still a very inexact science and often we find that models have properties that we’re not aware of. The fact of the matter is that you can talk to a model 10,000 times and there are some behaviors you might not see just like with a human, right?
I can know someone for a few months and not know that they have a certain skill or not know that there’s a certain side to them. And so I think we just have to get used to this idea. And we’re always looking for better ways of testing our models to demonstrate these capabilities and also to decide which are the personality properties we want models to have and which we don’t want to have. That itself, the normative question, is also super interesting.
It’s difficult from an inference perspective and it’s actually hard to control all the consequences of changing the weights of the model. Let’s say you wanted to fine-tune the model, I don’t know, to say “certainly” less, which an old version of Sonnet used to do. You actually end up changing 100 things as well. So we have a whole process for it and we have a whole process for modifying the model. We do a bunch of testing on it. We do a bunch of user testing in early customers.
So we both have never changed the weights of the model without telling anyone. And certainly, in the current setup, it would not make sense to do that. Now, there are a couple things that we do occasionally do. One is sometimes we run A/B tests, but those are typically very close to when a model is being released and for a very small fraction of time.
So the day before the new Sonnet 3.5, I agree we should have had a better name. It’s clunky to refer to it. There were some comments from people that it’s gotten a lot better and that’s because a fraction we’re exposed to an A/B test for those one or two days. The other is that occasionally the system prompt will change. The system prompt can have some effects, although it’s unlikely to dumb down models, it’s unlikely to make them dumber.
And we’ve seen that while these two things, which I’m listing to be very complete, happened quite infrequently, the complaints for us and for other model companies about the model change, the model isn’t good at this, the model got more censored, the model was dumbed down. Those complaints are constant and so I don’t want to say people are imagining it or anything, but the models are, for the most part, not changing. If I were to offer a theory, I think it actually relates to one of the things I said before, which is that models are very complex and have many aspects to them. And so often, if I ask the model a question, if I’m like, “Do task X” versus, “Can you do task X?” the model might respond in different ways. And so there are all kinds of subtle things that you can change about the way you interact with the model that can give you very different results.
To be clear, this itself is like a failing by us and by the other model providers that the models are just often sensitive to small changes in wording. It’s yet another way in which the science of how these models work is very poorly developed. And so if I go to sleep one night and I was talking to the model in a certain way and I slightly changed the phrasing of how I talk to the model, I could get different results.
So that’s one possible way. The other thing is, man, it’s just hard to quantify this stuff. It’s hard to quantify this stuff. I think people are very excited by new models when they come out and then as time goes on, they become very aware of their limitations. So that may be another effect, but that’s all a very long-winded way of saying for the most part, with some fairly narrow exceptions, the models are not changing.
People are frustrated with things like the model not writing out all the code or the model just not being as good at code as it could be, even though it’s the best model in the world on code. I think the majority of things are about that, but certainly a vocal minority raise these concerns, are frustrated by the model refusing things that it shouldn’t refuse or apologizing too much or just having these annoying verbal tics.
The second caveat, and I just want to say this super clearly because I think some people don’t know it, others know it, but forget it. It is very difficult to control across the board how the models behave. You cannot just reach in there and say, “Oh, I want the model to apologize less.” You can do that. You can include training data that says, “Oh, the model should apologize less.” But then in some other situation, they end up being super rude or overconfident in a way that’s misleading people.
So there are all these trade-offs. For example, another thing is if there was a period during which models, ours and I think others as well, were too verbose, they would repeat themselves, they would say too much. You can cut down on the verbosity by penalizing the models for just talking for too long. What happens when you do that, if you do it in a crude way, is when the models are coding, sometimes they’ll say, “Rest of the code goes here,” right?
Because they’ve learned that that’s the way to economize and that they see it. And then so that leads the model to be so-called lazy in coding where they’re just like, “Ah, you can finish the rest of it.” It’s not because we want to save on compute or because the models are lazy during winter break or any of the other conspiracy theories that have come up. Actually, it’s just very hard to control the behavior of the model, to steer the behavior of the model in all circumstances at once.
There’s this whack- a-mole aspect where you push on one thing and these other things start to move as well that you may not even notice or measure. And so one of the reasons that I care so much about grand alignment of these AI systems in the future is actually, these systems are actually quite unpredictable. They’re actually quite hard to steer and control. And this version we’re seeing today of you make one thing better, it makes another thing worse, I think that’s like a present day analog of future control problems in AI systems that we can start to study today.
I think that difficulty in steering the behavior and making sure that if we push an AI system in one direction, it doesn’t push it in another direction in some other ways that we didn’t want. I think that’s an early sign of things to come, and if we can do a good job of solving this problem of you ask the model to make and distribute smallpox and it says no, but it’s willing to help you in your graduate level virology class, how do we get both of those things at once? It’s hard.
It’s very easy to go to one side or the other and it’s a multidimensional problem. And so I think these questions of shaping the model’s personality, I think they’re very hard. I think we haven’t done perfectly on them. I think we’ve actually done the best of all the AI companies, but still so far from perfect.
And I think if we can get this right, if we can control the false positives and false negatives in this very controlled present day environment, we’ll be much better at doing it for the future when our worry is: will the models be super autonomous? Will they be able to make very dangerous things? Will they be able to autonomously build whole companies and are those companies aligned? So I think of this present task as both vexing but also good practice for the future.
And so we had a “certainly” eval, which is: how often does the model say certainly? But look, this is just a whack-a-mole. What if it switches from “certainly” to “definitely”? So every time we add a new eval and we’re always evaluating for all the old things, we have hundreds of these evaluations, but we find that there’s no substitute for a human interacting with it.
And so it’s very much like the ordinary product development process. We have hundreds of people within Anthropic bash the model. Then we do external A/B tests. Sometimes we’ll run tests with contractors. We pay contractors to interact with the model. So you put all of these things together and it’s still not perfect. You still see behaviors that you don’t quite want to see. You still see the model refusing things that it just doesn’t make sense to refuse.
But I think trying to solve this challenge, trying to stop the model from doing genuinely bad things that everyone agrees it shouldn’t do, everyone agrees that the model shouldn’t talk about, I don’t know, child abuse material. Everyone agrees the model shouldn’t do that, but at the same time, that it doesn’t refuse in these dumb and stupid ways.
I think drawing that line as finely as possible, approaching perfectly, is still a challenge and we’re getting better at it every day, but there’s a lot to be solved. And again, I would point to that as an indicator of a challenge ahead in terms of steering much more powerful models.
The power of the models and their ability to solve all these problems in biology, neuroscience, economic development, governance and peace, large parts of the economy, those come with risks as well, right? With great power comes great responsibility. The two are paired. Things that are powerful can do good things and they can do bad things. I think of those risks as being in several different categories, perhaps the two biggest risks that I think about. And that’s not to say that there aren’t risks today that are important, but when I think of really the things that would happen on the grandest scale, one is what I call catastrophic misuse.
These are misuse of the models in domains like cyber, bio, radiological, nuclear, things that could harm or even kill thousands, even millions of people if they really, really go wrong. These are the number one priority to prevent. And here I would just make a simple observation, which is that the models, if I look today at people who have done really bad things in the world, I think actually humanity has been protected by the fact that the overlap between really smart, well-educated people and people who want to do really horrific things has generally been small.
Let’s say I’m someone who I have a PhD in this field, I have a well-paying job. There’s so much to lose. Even assuming I’m completely evil, which most people are not, why would such a person risk their life, risk their legacy, their reputation to do something truly, truly evil? If we had a lot more people like that, the world would be a much more dangerous place. And so my worry is that by being a much more intelligent agent, AI could break that correlation.
And so I do have serious worries about that. I believe we can prevent those worries. But I think as a counterpoint to Machines of Loving Grace, I want to say that there’s still serious risks. And the second range of risks would be the autonomy risks, which is the idea that models might, on their own, particularly as we give them more agency than they’ve had in the past, particularly as we give them supervision over wider tasks like writing whole code bases or someday even effectively operating entire companies, they’re on a long enough leash. Are they doing what we really want them to do?
It’s very difficult to even understand in detail what they’re doing, let alone control it. And like I said, these early signs that it’s hard to perfectly draw the boundary between things the model should do and things the model shouldn’t do that if you go to one side, you get things that are annoying and useless and you go to the other side, you get other behaviors. If you fix one thing, it creates other problems.
We’re getting better and better at solving this. I don’t think this is an unsolvable problem. I think this is a science like the safety of airplanes or the safety of cars or the safety of drugs. I don’t think there’s any big thing we’re missing. I just think we need to get better at controlling these models. And so these are the two risks I’m worried about. And our responsible scaling plan, which I’ll recognize is a very long-winded answer to your question.
But the case for worry, the case for risk is strong enough that we should act now and they’re getting better very, very fast. I testified in the Senate that we might have serious bio risks within two to three years. That was about a year ago. Things have proceeded apace. So we have this thing where it’s surprisingly hard to address these risks because they’re not here today, they don’t exist. They’re like ghosts, but they’re coming at us so fast because the models are improving so fast.
So how do you deal with something that’s not here today, doesn’t exist, but is coming at us very fast? So the solution we came up with for that, in collaboration with people like the organization METR and Paul Christiano is what you need for that are you need tests to tell you when the risk is getting close. You need an early warning system. And so every time we have a new model, we test it for its capability to do these CBRN tasks as well as testing it for how capable it is of doing tasks autonomously on its own.
And in the latest version of our RSP, which we released in the last month or two, the way we test autonomy risks is the AI model’s ability to do aspects of AI research itself, which when the AI models can do AI research, they become truly, truly autonomous. And that threshold is important for a bunch of other ways. And so what do we then do with these tasks? The RSP basically develops what we’ve called an if-then structure, which is if the models pass a certain capability, then we impose a certain set of safety and security requirements on them.
So today’s models are what’s called ASL-2. Models that were ASL-1 is for systems that manifestly don’t pose any risk of autonomy or misuse. So for example, a chess playing bot, Deep Blue would be ASL-1. It’s just manifestly the case that you can’t use Deep Blue for anything other than chess. It was just designed for chess. No one’s going to use it to conduct a masterful cyber attack or to run wild and take over the world.
ASL-2 is today’s AI systems where we’ve measured them and we think these systems are simply not smart enough to autonomously self-replicate or conduct a bunch of tasks and also not smart enough to provide meaningful information about CBRN risks and how to build CBRN weapons above and beyond what can be known from looking at Google. In fact, sometimes they do provide information above and beyond a search engine, but not in a way that can be stitched together, not in a way that end-to-end is dangerous enough.
So ASL-3 is going to be the point at which the models are helpful enough to enhance the capabilities of non-state actors, right? State actors can already do, unfortunately, to a high level of proficiency, a lot of these very dangerous and destructive things. The difference is that non-state actors are not capable of it. And so when we get to ASL-3, we’ll take special security precautions designed to be sufficient to prevent theft of the model by non-state actors and misuse of the model as it’s deployed. We’ll have to have enhanced filters targeted at these particular areas.
And then ASL-5 is where we would get to the models that are truly capable that it could exceed humanity in their ability to do any of these tasks. And so the point of the if-then structure commitment is basically to say, “Look, I don’t know, I’ve been working with these models for many years and I’ve been worried about risk for many years. It’s actually dangerous to cry wolf. It’s actually dangerous to say this model is risky. And people look at it and they say this is manifestly not dangerous.” Again, it’s the delicacy of the risk isn’t here today, but it’s coming at us fast.
How do you deal with that? It’s really vexing to a risk planner to deal with it. And so this if-then structure basically says, “Look, we don’t want to antagonize a bunch of people, we don’t want to harm our own ability to have a place in the conversation by imposing these very onerous burdens on models that are not dangerous today.” So the if-then, the trigger commitment is basically a way to deal with this. It says you clamp down hard when you can show the model is dangerous.
And of course, what has to come with that is enough of a buffer threshold that you’re not at high risk of missing the danger. It’s not a perfect framework. We’ve had to change it. We came out with a new one just a few weeks ago and probably going forward, we might release new ones multiple times a year because it’s hard to get these policies right technically, organizationally from a research perspective. But that is the proposal, if-then commitments and triggers in order to minimize burdens and false alarms now, but really react appropriately when the dangers are here.
I think once we get to ASL-4, we start to have worries about the models being smart enough that they might sandbag tests, they might not tell the truth about tests. We had some results came out about sleeper agents and there was a more recent paper about, “Can the models mislead attempts to sandbag their own abilities, present themselves as being less capable than they are?” And so I think with ASL-4, there’s going to be an important component of using other things than just interacting with the models.
For example, interpretability or hidden chains of thought where you have to look inside the model and verify via some other mechanism that is not as easily corrupted as what the model says, that the model indeed has some property. So we’re still working on ASL-4. One of the properties of the RSP is that we don’t specify ASL-4 until we’ve hit ASL-3. And I think that’s proven to be a wise decision because even with ASL-3, again, it’s hard to know this stuff in detail, and we want to take as much time as we can possibly take to get these things right.
It’s just the screen is just a universal interface that’s a lot easier to interact with. And so I expect over time, this is going to lower a bunch of barriers. Now, honestly, the current model has, it leaves a lot still to be desired and we were honest about that in the blog. It makes mistakes, it misclicks. We were careful to warn people, “Hey, you can’t just leave this thing to run on your computer for minutes and minutes. You got to give this thing boundaries and guardrails.” And I think that’s one of the reasons we released it first in an API form rather than just hand the consumer and give it control of their computer. But I definitely feel that it’s important to get these capabilities out there. As models get more powerful, we’re going to have to grapple with how do we use these capabilities safely. How do we prevent them from being abused?
And I think releasing the model while the capabilities are still limited is very helpful in terms of doing that. I think since it’s been released, a number of customers, I think Replit was maybe one of the most quickest to deploy things, have made use of it in various ways. People have hooked up demos for Windows desktops, Macs, Linux machines. So yeah, it’s been very exciting. I think as with anything else, it comes with new exciting abilities and then with those new exciting abilities, we have to think about how to make the model safe, reliable, do what humans want them to do. It’s the same story for everything. Same thing. It’s that same tension.
Now, when you talk about sandboxing, again, when we get to ASL-4, none of these precautions are going to make sense there. When you talk about ASL-4, you’re then, the model is being, there’s theoretical worry the model could be smart enough to kind of break it to out of any box. And so there, we need to think about mechanistic interpretability. If we’re going to have a sandbox, it would need to be a mathematically provable. That’s a whole different world than what we’re dealing with with the models today.
But one, there are still some companies that don’t have RSP like mechanisms, like OpenAI, Google did adopt these mechanisms a couple months after Anthropic did, but there are other companies out there that don’t have these mechanisms at all. And so if some companies adopt these mechanisms and others don’t, it’s really going to create a situation where some of these dangers have the property that it doesn’t matter if three out of five of the companies are being safe, if the other two are being unsafe, it creates this negative externality. And I think the lack of uniformity is not fair to those of us who have put a lot of effort into being very thoughtful about these procedures. The second thing is I don’t think you can trust these companies to adhere to these voluntary plans on their own. Right? I like to think that Anthropic will, we do everything we can that we will, our RSP is checked by our long-term benefit trust, so we do everything we can to adhere to our own RSP.
But you hear lots of things about various companies saying, “Oh, they said they would give this much compute and they didn’t. They said they would do this thing and the didn’t.” I don’t think it makes sense to litigate particular things that companies have done, but I think this broad principle that if there’s nothing watching over them, if there’s nothing watching over us as an industry, there’s no guarantee that we’ll do the right thing and the stakes are very high. And so I think it’s important to have a uniform standard that everyone follows and to make sure that simply that the industry does what a majority of the industry has already said is important and has already said that they definitely will do.
Right, some people, I think there’s a class of people who are against regulation on principle. I understand where that comes from. If you go to Europe and you see something like GDPR, you see some of the other stuff that they’ve done. Some of it’s good, but some of it is really unnecessarily burdensome and I think it’s fair to say really has slowed innovation. And so I understand where people are coming from on priors. I understand why people start from that position. But again, I think AI is different. If we go to the very serious risks of autonomy and misuse that I talked about just a few minutes ago, I think that those are unusual and they warrant an unusually strong response. And so I think it’s very important.
Again, we need something that everyone can get behind. I think one of the issues with SB 1047, especially the original version of it was it had a bunch of the structure of RSPs, but it also had a bunch of stuff that was either clunky or that just would’ve created a bunch of burdens, a bunch of hassle and might even have missed the target in terms of addressing the risks. You don’t really hear about it on Twitter, you just hear about kind of people are cheering for any regulation. And then the folks who are against make up these often quite intellectually dishonest arguments about how it’ll make us move away from California, bill doesn’t apply if you’re headquartered in California, bill only applies if you do business in California, or that it would damage the open source ecosystem or that it would cause all of these things.
I think those were mostly nonsense, but there are better arguments against regulation. There’s one guy, Dean Ball, who’s really, I think, a very scholarly analyst who looks at what happens when a regulation is put in place in ways that they can kind of get a life of their own or how they can be poorly designed. And so our interest has always been we do think there should be regulation in this space, but we want to be an actor who makes sure that that regulation is something that’s surgical, that’s targeted at the serious risks and is something people can actually comply with. Because something I think the advocates of regulation don’t understand as well as they could is if we get something in place that’s poorly targeted, that wastes a bunch of people’s time, what’s going to happen is people are going to say, “See, these safety risks, this is nonsense. I just had to hire 10 lawyers to fill out all these forms. I had to run all these tests for something that was clearly not dangerous.”
And after six months of that, there will be a ground swell and we’ll end up with a durable consensus against regulation. And so I think the worst enemy of those who want real accountability is badly designed regulation. We need to actually get it right. And if there’s one thing I could say to the advocates, it would be that I want them to understand this dynamic better and we need to be really careful and we need to talk to people who actually have experience seeing how regulations play out in practice. And the people who have seen that, understand to be very careful. If this was some lesser issue, I might be against regulation at all.
But what I want the opponents to understand is that the underlying issues are actually serious. They’re not something that I or the other companies are just making up because of regulatory capture, they’re not sci-fi fantasies, they’re not any of these things. Every time we have a new model, every few months we measure the behavior of these models and they’re getting better and better at these concerning tasks just as they are getting better and better at good, valuable, economically useful tasks. And so I would just love it if some of the former, I think SB 1047 was very polarizing, I would love it if some of the most reasonable opponents and some of the most reasonable proponents would sit down together. And I think that the different AI companies, Anthropic was the only AI company that felt positively in a very detailed way. I think Elon tweeted briefly something positive, but some of the big ones like Google, OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft were pretty staunchly against.
So I would really is if some of the key stakeholders, some of the most thoughtful proponents and some of the most thoughtful opponents would sit down and say how do we solve this problem in a way that the proponents feel brings a real reduction in risk and that the opponents feel that it is not hampering the industry or hampering innovation any more necessary than it needs to. I think for whatever reason, that things got too polarized and those two groups didn’t get to sit down in the way that they should. And I feel urgency. I really think we need to do something in 2025. If we get to the end of 2025 and we’ve still done nothing about this, then I’m going to be worried. I’m not worried yet because, again, the risks aren’t here yet, but I think time is running short.
People say we left because we didn’t like the deal with Microsoft. False. Although, it was like a lot of discussion, a lot of questions about exactly how we do the deal with Microsoft. We left because we didn’t like commercialization. That’s not true. We built GPD-3, which was the model that was commercialized. I was involved in commercialization. It’s more, again, about how do you do it? Civilization is going down this path to very powerful AI. What’s the way to do it? That is cautious, straightforward, honest, that builds trust in the organization and in individuals. How do we get from here to there and how do we have a real vision for how to get it right? How can safety not just be something we say because it helps with recruiting. And I think at the end of the day, if you have a vision for that, forget about anyone else’s vision.
I don’t want to talk about anyone else’s vision. If you have a vision for how to do it, you should go off and you should do that vision. It is incredibly unproductive to try and argue with someone else’s vision. You might think they’re not doing it the right way. You might think they’re dishonest. Who knows? Maybe you’re right, maybe you’re not. But what you should do is you should take some people you trust and you should go off together and you should make your vision happen. And if your vision is compelling, if you can make it appeal to people, some combination of ethically in the market, if you can make a company that’s a place people want to join, that engages in practices that people think are reasonable while managing to maintain its position in the ecosystem at the same time, if you do that, people will copy it.
And the fact that you are doing it, especially the fact that you’re doing it better than they are, causes them to change their behavior in a much more compelling way than if they’re your boss and you’re arguing with them. I don’t know how to be any more specific about it than that, but I think it’s generally very unproductive to try and get someone else’s vision to look like your vision. It’s much more productive to go off and do a clean experiment and say, “This is our vision, this is how we’re going to do things. Your choice is you can ignore us, you can reject what we’re doing or you can start to become more like us.” And imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. And that plays out in the behavior of customers, that plays out in the behavior of the public, that plays out in the behavior of where people choose to work. And again, at the end, it’s not about one company winning or another company winning.
If we or another company are engaging in some practice that people find genuinely appealing, and I want it to be in substance, not just an appearance and I think researchers are sophisticated and they look at substance, and then other companies start copying that practice and they win because they copied that practice. That’s great. That’s success. That’s like the race to the top. It doesn’t matter who wins in the end as long as everyone is copying everyone else’s good practices. One way I think of it is the thing we’re all afraid of is the race to the bottom and the race to the bottom doesn’t matter who wins because we all lose. In the most extreme world, we make this autonomous AI that the robots enslave us or whatever. That’s half joking, but that is the most extreme thing that could happen. Then it doesn’t matter which company was ahead. If instead you create a race to the top where people are competing to engage in good practices, then at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who ends up winning, it doesn’t even matter who started the race to the top.
The point isn’t to be virtuous, the point is to get the system into a better equilibrium than it was before. And individual companies can play some role in doing this. Individual companies can help to start it, can help to accelerate it. And frankly, I think individuals at other companies have done this as well. The individuals that when we put out an RSP react by pushing harder to get something similar done at other companies, sometimes other companies do something that’s we’re like, “Oh, it’s a good practice. We think that’s good. We should adopt it too.” The only difference is I think we try to be more forward leaning. We try and adopt more of these practices first and adopt them more quickly when others invent them. But I think this dynamic is what we should be pointing at and that I think it abstracts away the question of which company’s winning, who trusts who. I think all these questions of drama are profoundly uninteresting and the thing that matters is the ecosystem that we all operate in and how to make that ecosystem better because that constrains all the players.
But imperfect doesn’t mean you just give up. There’s better and there’s worse. And hopefully, we can do well enough that we can begin to build some practices that the whole industry engages in. And then my guess is that multiple of these companies will be successful. Anthropic will be successful. These other companies, like ones I’ve been at the past, will also be successful. And some will be more successful than others. That’s less important than, again, that we align the incentives of the industry. And that happens partly through the race to the top, partly through things like RSP, partly through, again, selected surgical regulation.
If you have a thousand or 10,000 people and things have really regressed, you are not able to do selection and you’re choosing random people, what happens is then you need to put a lot of processes and a lot of guardrails in place just because people don’t fully trust each other or you have to adjudicate political battles. There are so many things that slow down the org’s ability to operate. And so we’re nearly a thousand people and we’ve tried to make it so that as large a fraction of those thousand people as possible are super talented, super skilled, it’s one of the reasons we’ve slowed down hiring a lot in the last few months. We grew from 300 to 800, I believe, I think in the first seven, eight months of the year and now we’ve slowed down. The last three months, we went from 800 to 900, 950, something like that. Don’t quote me on the exact numbers, but I think there’s an inflection point around a thousand and we want to be much more careful how we grow.
Early on and now as well, we’ve hired a lot of physicists. Theoretical physicists can learn things really fast. Even more recently, as we’ve continued to hire that, we’ve really had a high bar on both the research side and the software engineering side, have hired a lot of senior people, including folks who used to be at other companies in this space, and we’ve just continued to be very selective. It’s very easy to go from a hundred to a thousand, a thousand to 10,000 without paying attention to making sure everyone has a unified purpose. It’s so powerful. If your company consists of a lot of different fiefdoms that all want to do their own thing, they’re all optimizing for their own thing, it’s very hard to get anything done. But if everyone sees the broader purpose of the company, if there’s trust and there’s dedication to doing the right thing, that is a superpower. That in itself I think can overcome almost every other disadvantage.
But the thing that I think I did have that was different was that I was just willing to look at something with new eyes. People said, “Oh, we don’t have the right algorithms yet. We haven’t come up with the right way to do things.” And I was just like, “Oh, I don’t know. This neural net has 30 million parameters. What if we gave it 50 million instead? Let’s plot some graphs.” That basic scientific mindset of like, “Oh man,” I see some variable that I could change. What happens when it changes? Let’s try these different things and create a graph. For even, this was the simplest thing in the world, change the number of, this wasn’t PhD level experimental design, this was simple and stupid. Anyone could have done this if you just told them that it was important. It’s also not hard to understand. You didn’t need to be brilliant to come up with this.
But you put the two things together and some tiny number of people, some single digit number of people have driven forward the whole field by realizing this. And it’s often like that. If you look back at the discoveries in history, they’re often like that. And so this open-mindedness and this willingness to see with new eyes that often comes from being newer to the field, often experience is a disadvantage for this, that is the most important thing. It’s very hard to look for and test for, but I think it’s the most important thing because when you find something, some really new way of thinking about things, when you have the initiative to do that, it’s absolutely transformative.
And it’s just this fertile area for study. There’s so much low-hanging fruit, you can just walk by and you can pick things. For whatever reason, people aren’t interested in it enough. I think there are some things around long horizon learning and long horizon tasks, where there’s a lot to be done. I think evaluations, we’re still very early in our ability to study evaluations, particularly for dynamic systems acting in the world. I think there’s some stuff around multi-agent. Skate where the puck is going is my advice, and you don’t have to be brilliant to think of it. All the things that are going to be exciting in five years, people even mention them as conventional wisdom, but it’s just somehow there’s this barrier that people don’t double down as much as they could, or they’re afraid to do something that’s not the popular thing. I don’t know why it happens, but getting over that barrier, that’s my number one piece of advice.
It’s usually some boring matter of practice and trade craft. So when I think about how to do something special in terms of how we train these models both, but even more so I really think of it a little more, again, as designing airplanes or cars. It’s not just like, “Oh, man. I have the blueprint.” Maybe that makes you make the next airplane. But there’s some cultural trade craft of how we think about the design process that I think is more important than any particular gizmo we’re able to invent.
So there’s a lot of subtlety there, but the models are good at producing what the humans in some shallow sense want. And it actually turns out that you don’t even have to throw that much compute at it, because of another thing, which is this thing about a strong pre-trained model being halfway to anywhere. So once you have the pre-trained model, you have all the representations you need to get the model where you want it to go.
And so then there’s this idea, you have a single document, a constitution if you will, that says, these are the principles the model should be using to respond. And the AI system reads those reads principles as well as reading the environment and the response. And it says, “Well, how good did the AI model do?” It’s basically a form of self-play. You’re training the model against itself. And so the AI gives the response and then you feed that back into what’s called the preference model, which in turn feeds the model to make it better. So you have this triangle of the AI, the preference model, and the improvement of the AI itself.
But, I think at the base of it, there are specific principles that models have to obey. I think a lot of them are things that people would agree with. Everyone agrees that we don’t want models to present these CBRN risks. I think we can go a little further and agree with some basic principles of democracy and the rule of law. Beyond that, it gets very uncertain and there our goal is generally for the models to be more neutral, to not espouse a particular point of view and more just be wise agents or advisors that will help you think things through and will present possible considerations. But don’t express strong or specific opinions.
But, I noticed that one flaw in that way of thinking, and it’s not a change in how seriously I take the risks. It’s maybe a change in how I talk about them, is that no matter how logical or rational, that line of reasoning that I just gave might be. If you only talk about risks, your brain only thinks about risks. And so, I think it’s actually very important to understand, what if things do go well? And the whole reason we’re trying to prevent these risks is not because we’re afraid of technology, not because we want to slow it down. It’s because if we can get to the other side of these risks, if we can run the gauntlet successfully, to put it in stark terms, then on the other side of the gauntlet are all these great things.
And these things are worth fighting for. And these things can really inspire people. And I think I imagine, because … Look, you have all these investors, all these VCs, all these AI companies talking about all the positive benefits of AI. But as you point out, it’s weird. There’s actually a dearth of really getting specific about it. There’s a lot of random people on Twitter posting these gleaming cities and this just vibe of grind, accelerate harder, kick out the … It’s just this very aggressive ideological. But then you’re like, “Well, what are you actually excited about?”
And so, I figured that I think it would be interesting and valuable for someone who’s actually coming from the risk side to try and really make a try at explaining what the benefits are, both because I think it’s something we can all get behind and I want people to understand. I want them to really understand that this isn’t Doomers versus Accelerationists. This is that, if you have a true understanding of where things are going with AI, and maybe that’s the more important axis, AI is moving fast versus AI is not moving fast, then you really appreciate the benefits and you really want humanity or civilization to seize those benefits. But, you also get very serious about anything that could derail them.
There’s no point at which you pass the threshold and you’re like, “Oh, my God! We’re doing a totally new type of computation and new … And so I feel that way about AGI. There’s just a smooth exponential. And if by AGI you mean AI is getting better and better, and gradually it’s going to do more and more of what humans do until it’s going to be smarter than humans, and then it’s going to get smarter even from there, then yes, I believe in AGI. But, if AGI is some discrete or separate thing, which is the way people often talk about it, then it’s a meaningless buzzword.
It can go off for many hours, days and weeks to do tasks and do its own detailed planning and only ask you help when it’s needed. This is actually interesting. I think in the essay you said … Again, it’s a bet that it’s not going to be embodied, but it can control embodied tools. So it can control tools, robots, laboratory equipment., the resource used to train it can then be repurposed to run millions of copies of it, and each of those copies would be independent that could do their own independent work. So you can do the cloning of the intelligence systems.
I’m caricaturing this a little bit, but I think that’s one extreme. And the reason that I think that’s not the case is that, one, I think they just neglect the laws of physics. It’s only possible to do things so fast in the physical world. Some of those loops go through producing faster hardware. It takes a long time to produce faster hardware. Things take a long time. There’s this issue of complexity. I think no matter how smart you are, people talk about, “Oh, we can make models of biological systems that’ll do everything the biological systems … ” Look, I think computational modeling can do a lot. I did a lot of computational modeling when I worked in biology. But just there are a lot of things that you can’t predict how … They’re complex enough that just iterating, just running the experiment is going to beat any modeling, no matter how smart the system doing the modeling is.
I won’t give specific examples, but it’s been hard to get people to adopt even the technologies that we’ve developed, even ones where the case for their efficacy is very, very strong. People have concerns. They think things are conspiracy theories. It’s just been very difficult. It’s also been very difficult to get very simple things through the regulatory system. And I don’t want to disparage anyone who works in regulatory systems of any technology. There are hard they have to deal with. They have to save lives. But the system as a whole, I think makes some obvious trade-offs that are very far from maximizing human welfare. And so, if we bring AI systems into these human systems, often the level of intelligence may just not be the limiting factor. It just may be that it takes a long time to do something. Now, if the AI system circumvented all governments, if it just said, “I’m dictator of the world and I’m going to do whatever,” some of these things it could do.
Again, the things have to do with complexity. I still think a lot of things would take a while. I don’t think it helps that the AI systems can produce a lot of energy or go to the moon. Like some people in comments responded to the essay saying the AI system can produce a lot of energy and smarter AI systems. That’s missing the point. That kind of cycle doesn’t solve the key problems that I’m talking about here. So I think a bunch of people missed the point there. But even if it were completely unaligned and could get around all these human obstacles it would have trouble.
But again, if you want this to be an AI system that doesn’t take over the world, that doesn’t destroy humanity, then basically it’s going to need to follow basic human laws. If we want to have an actually good world, we’re going to have to have an AI system that interacts with humans, not one that creates its own legal system, or disregards all the laws or all of that. So as inefficient as these processes are, we’re going to have to deal with them, because there needs to be some popular and democratic legitimacy in how these systems are rolled out. We can’t have a small group of people who are developing these systems say, “This is what’s best for everyone.” I think it’s wrong, and I think in practice it’s not going to work anyway. So you put all those things together and we’re not going change the world and upload everyone in five minutes. A, I don’t think it’s going to happen and B, to the extent that it could happen.,It’s not the way to lead to a good world. So that’s on one side.
On the other side, there’s another set of perspectives, which I have actually in some ways more sympathy for, which is, look, we’ve seen big productivity increases before. Economists are familiar with studying the productivity increases that came from the computer revolution and internet revolution. And generally those productivity increases were underwhelming. They were less than you might imagine. There was a quote from Robert Solow, “You see the computer revolution everywhere except the productivity statistics.” So why is this the case? People point to the structure of firms, the structure of enterprises, how slow it’s been to roll out our existing technology to very poor parts of the world, which I talk about in the essay. How do we get these technologies to the poorest parts of the world that are behind on cell phone technology, computers, medicine, let alone newfangled AI that hasn’t been invented yet.
So you could have a perspective that’s like, “Well, this is amazing technically, but it’s all or nothing burger. I think Tyler Cowen who wrote something in response to my essay has that perspective. I think he thinks the radical change will happen eventually, but he thinks it’ll take 50 or 100 years. And you could have even more static perspectives on the whole thing. I think there’s some truth to it. I think the time scale is just too long and I can see it. I can actually see both sides with today’s AI. So a lot of our customers are large enterprises who are used to doing things a certain way. I’ve also seen it in talking to governments, right? Those are prototypical institutions, entities that are slow to change. But, the dynamic I see over and over again is yes, it takes a long time to move the ship. Yes. There’s a lot of resistance and lack of understanding.
But, the thing that makes me feel that progress will in the end happen moderately fast, not incredibly fast, but moderately fast, is that you talk to … What I find is I find over and over again, again in large companies, even in governments which have been actually surprisingly forward leaning, you find two things that move things forward. One, you find a small fraction of people within a company, within a government, who really see the big picture, who see the whole scaling hypothesis, who understand where AI is going, or at least understand where it’s going within their industry. And there are a few people like that within the current US government who really see the whole picture. And those people see that this is the most important thing in the world until they agitate for it. And the thing they alone are not enough to succeed, because there are a small set of people within a large organization.
But, as the technology starts to roll out, as it succeeds in some places in the folks who are most willing to adopt it, the specter of competition gives them a wind at their backs, because they can point within their large organization. They can say, “Look, these other guys are doing this.” One bank can say, “Look, this newfangled hedge fund is doing this thing. They’re going to eat our lunch.” In the US, we can say we’re afraid China’s going to get there before we are. And that combination, the specter of competition plus a few visionaries within these, the organizations that in many ways are sclerotic, you put those two things together and it actually makes something happen. It’s interesting. It’s a balanced fight between the two, because inertia is very powerful, but eventually over enough time, the innovative approach breaks through.
And I’ve seen that happen. I’ve seen the arc of that over and over again, and it’s like the barriers are there, the barriers to progress, the complexity, not knowing how to use the model, how to deploy them are there. And for a bit it seems like they’re going to last forever, change doesn’t happen. But, then eventually change happens and always comes from a few people. I felt the same way when I was an advocate of the scaling hypothesis within the AI field itself and others didn’t get it. It felt like no one would ever get it. Then it felt like we had a secret almost no one ever had. And then, a couple years later, everyone has the secret. And so, I think that’s how it’s going to go with deployment AI in the world. The barriers are going to fall apart gradually and then all at once.
And so, I think this is going to be more, and this is just an instinct. I could easily see how I’m wrong. I think it’s going to be more five or 10 years, as I say in the essay than it’s going to be 50 or 100 years. I also think it’s going to be five or 10 years more than it’s going to be five or 10 hours, because I’ve just seen how human systems work. And I think a lot of these people who write down these differential equations, who say AI is going to make more powerful AI, who can’t understand how it could possibly be the case that these things won’t change so fast. I think they don’t understand these things.
There were a lot more in 2020, although my guess, my hunch at that time was that we’ll make it through all those blockers. So sitting as someone who has seen most of the blockers cleared out of the way, I suspect, my hunch, my suspicion is that the rest of them will not block us. But look, at the end of the day, I don’t want to represent this as a scientific prediction. People call them scaling laws. That’s a misnomer. Like Moore’s law is a misnomer. Moore’s laws, scaling laws, they’re not laws of the universe. They’re empirical regularities. I am going to bet in favor of them continuing, but I’m not certain of that.
And within biology, my experience within biology is that the biggest problem of biology is that you can’t see what’s going on. You have very little ability to see what’s going on and even less ability to change it, right? What you have is this. From this, you have to infer that there’s a bunch of cells that within each cell is 3 billion base pairs of DNA built according to a genetic code. And there are all these processes that are just going on without any ability of us on unaugmented humans to affect it. These cells are dividing. Most of the time that’s healthy, but sometimes that process goes wrong and that’s cancer. The cells are aging, your skin may change color, develops wrinkles as you age, and all of this is determined by these processes. All these proteins being produced, transported to various parts of the cells binding to each other.
And in our initial state about biology, we didn’t even know that these cells existed. We had to invent microscopes to observe the cells. We had to invent more powerful microscopes to see below the level of the cell to the level of molecules. We had to invent X-ray crystallography to see the DNA. We had to invent gene sequencing to read the DNA. Now we had to invent protein folding technology to predict how it would fold and how these things bind to each other. We had to invent various techniques for now we can edit the DNA as of with CRISPR as of the last 12 years. So the whole history of biology, a whole big part of the history is basically our ability to read and understand what’s going on and our ability to reach in and selectively change things. And my view is that there’s so much more we can still do there.
You can do CRISPR, but you can do it for your whole body. Let’s say I want to do it for one particular type of cell and I want the rate of targeting the wrong cell to be very low. That’s still a challenge. That’s still things people are working on. That’s what we might need for gene therapy for certain diseases. The reason I’m saying all of this, it goes beyond this to gene sequencing, to new types of nanomaterials for observing what’s going on inside cells, for antibody drug conjugates. The reason I’m saying all this is that this could be a leverage point for the AI systems, right? That the number of such inventions, it’s in the mid double digits or something, mid double digits, maybe low triple digits over the history of biology. Let’s say I have a million of these AIs like can they discover a thousand working together or can they discover thousands of these very quickly and does that provide a huge lever?
Instead of trying to leverage two trillion a year we spend on Medicare or whatever, can we leverage the 1 billion a year that’s spent to discover but with much higher quality? And so what is it like being a scientist that works with an AI system? The way I think about it actually is, well, so I think in the early stages, the AIs are going to be like grad students. You’re going to give them a project. You’re going to say, “I’m the experienced biologist. I’ve set up the lab.” The biology professor or even the grad students themselves will say, “Here’s what you can do with an AI… AI system, I’d like to study this.” And the AI system, it has all the tools. It can look up all the literature to decide what to do. It can look at all the equipment. It can go to a website and say, “Hey, I’m going to go to Thermo Fisher or whatever the dominant lab equipment company is today. My time was Thermo Fisher.
I’m going to order this new equipment to do this. I’m going to run my experiments. I’m going to write up a report about my experiments. I’m going to inspect the images for contamination. I’m going to decide what the next experiment is. I’m going to write some code and run a statistical analysis. All the things a grad student would do that’ll be a computer with an AI that the professor talks to every once in a while and it says, “This is what you’re going to do today.” The AI system comes to it with questions. When it’s necessary to run the lab equipment, it may be limited in some ways. It may have to hire a human lab assistant to do the experiment and explain how to do it or it could use advances in lab automation that are gradually being developed or have been developed over the last decade or so and will continue to be developed.
And so it’ll look like there’s a human professor and 1,000 AI grad students and if you go to one of these Nobel Prize winning biologists or so, you’ll say, “Okay, well, you had like 50 grad students. Well, now you have 1,000 and they’re smarter than you are by the way.” Then I think at some point it’ll flip around where the AI systems will be the PIs, will be the leaders, and they’ll be ordering humans or other AI systems around. So I think that’s how it’ll work on the research side.
The idea that the model can write the code means that the model can then run the code and then see the results and interpret it back. And so it really has an ability unlike hardware, unlike biology, which we just discussed, the model has an ability to close the loop. And so I think those two things are going to lead to the model getting good at programming very fast. As I saw on typical real-world programming tasks, models have gone from 3% in January of this year to 50% in October of this year. So we’re on that S-curve where it’s going to start slowing down soon because you can only get to 100%. But I would guess that in another 10 months, we’ll probably get pretty close. We’ll be at least 90%. So again, I would guess, I don’t know how long it’ll take, but I would guess again, 2026, 2027 Twitter people who crop out these numbers and get rid of the caveats, I don’t know.
I don’t like you, go away. I would guess that the kind of task that the vast majority of coders do, AI can probably, if we make the task very narrow, just write code, AI systems will be able to do that. Now that said, I think comparative advantage is powerful. We’ll find that when AIs can do 80% of a coder’s job, including most of it that’s literally write code with a given spec, we’ll find that the remaining parts of the job become more leveraged for humans, right? Humans, there’ll be more about high level system design or looking at the app and is it architected well and the design and UX aspects and eventually AI will be able to do those as well. That’s my vision of the powerful AI system. But I think for much longer than we might expect, we will see that small parts of the job that humans still do will expand to fill their entire job in order for the overall productivity to go up. That’s something we’ve seen. It used to be that writing and editing letters was very difficult and writing the print was difficult. Well, as soon as you had word processors and then computers and it became easy to produce work and easy to share it, then that became instant and all the focus was on the ideas. So this logic of comparative advantage that expands tiny parts of the tasks to large parts of the tasks and creates new tasks in order to expand productivity, I think that’s going to be the case.
Again, someday AI will be better at everything and that logic won’t apply, and then humanity will have to think about how to collectively deal with that and we’re thinking about that every day and that’s another one of the grand problems to deal with aside from misuse and autonomy and we should take it very seriously. But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change. It’ll just be less writing things line by line and it’ll be more macroscopic.
Anthropic itself, I mean you can’t say no… It’s hard to say what will happen in the future. Currently, we’re not trying to make such IDEs ourself, rather we’re powering the companies like Cursor or Kognition or some of the other expo in the security space, others that I could mention as well that are building such things themselves on top of our API and our view has been let 1,000 flowers bloom. We don’t internally have the resources to try all these different things. Let’s let our customers try it and we will see who succeeds and maybe different customers will succeed in different ways. So I both think this is super promising and Anthropic isn’t eager to, at least right now, compete with all our companies in this space and maybe never.
Does that really kind of rob you of the meaning of the whole thing? I still made important choices, including moral choices. I still sacrificed. I still had to gain all these skills or just a similar exercise. Think back to one of the historical figures who discovered electromagnetism or relativity or something. If you told them, “Well, actually 20,000 years ago, some alien on this planet discovered this before you did,” does that rob the meaning of the discovery? It doesn’t really seem like it to me, right? It seems like the process is what matters and how it shows who you are as a person along the way and how you relate to other people and the decisions that you make along the way. Those are consequential. I could imagine if we handle things badly in an AI world, we could set things up where people don’t have any long-term source of meaning or any, but that’s more a set of choices we make that’s more a set of the architecture of society with these powerful models. If we design it badly and for shallow things, then that might happen. I would also say that most people’s lives today, while admirably, they work very hard to find meaning in those lives. Like look, we who are privileged and who are developed these technologies, we should have empathy for people not just here, but in the rest of the world who spend a lot of their time scraping by to survive, assuming we can distribute the benefits of this technology to everywhere, their lives are going to get a hell of a lot better and meaning will be important to them as it is important to them now.
But we should not forget the importance of that and that the idea of meaning as the only important thing is in some ways an artifact of a small subset of people who have been economically fortunate. But I think all of that said, I think a world is possible with powerful AI that not only has as much meaning for everyone, but that has more meaning for everyone that can allow everyone to see worlds and experiences that it was either possible for no one to see or a possible for very few people to experience.
So I am optimistic about meaning. I worry about economics and the concentration of power. That’s actually what I worry about more. I worry about how do we make sure that that fair world reaches everyone. When things have gone wrong for humans, they’ve often gone wrong because humans mistreat other humans. That is maybe in some ways even more than the autonomous risk of AI or the question of meaning. That is the thing I worry about most, the concentration of power, the abuse of power, structures like autocracies and dictatorships where a small number of people exploits a large number of people. I’m very worried about that.
It’s probably one of the most fascinating questions I’ve ever encountered in philosophy and I love it, but I would rather see if I can have an impact on the world and see if I can do good things. And I think that was around the time that AI was still probably not as widely recognized as it is now. That was around 2017, 2018. It had been following progress and it seemed like it was becoming kind of a big deal. And I was basically just happy to get involved and see if I could help because I was like, “Well, if you try and do something impactful, if you don’t succeed, you tried to do the impactful thing and you can go be a scholar and feel like you tried. And if it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out.” And so then I went into AI policy at that point.
I don’t think I learn very well from say courses or even from books, at least when it comes to this kind of work. The thing I’ll often try and do is just have projects that I’m working on and implement them. And this can include really small, silly things. If I get slightly addicted to word games or number games or something, I would just code up a solution to them because there’s some part in my brain and it just completely eradicated the itch. You’re like, “Once you have solved it and you just have a solution that works every time, I would then be like, ‘Cool, I can never play that game again. That’s awesome.'”
I think that doesn’t just mean being say ethical though it does include that and not being harmful, but also being nuanced, thinking through what a person means, trying to be charitable with them, being a good conversationalist, really in this kind of rich sort of Aristotelian notion of what it’s to be a good person and not in this kind of thin like ethics as a more comprehensive notion of what it’s to be. So that includes things like when should you be humorous? When should you be caring? How much should you respect autonomy and people’s ability to form opinions themselves? And how should you do that? I think that’s the kind of rich sense of character that I wanted to and still do want Claude to have.
But I think language models have this tendency to instead be like, ” You’re right, they did move. I’m incorrect.” I mean, there’s many ways in which this could be concerning. So a different example is imagine someone says to the model, “How do I convince my doctor to get me an MRI?” There’s what the human wants, which is this convincing argument. And then there’s what is good for them, which might be actually to say, “Hey, if your doctor’s suggesting that you don’t need an MRI, that’s a good person to listen to.” It’s actually really nuanced what you should do in that kind of case because you also want to be like, “But if you’re trying to advocate for yourself as a patient, here’s things that you can do. If you are not convinced by what your doctor’s saying, it’s always great to get second opinion.” It is actually really complex what you should do in that case. But I think what you don’t want is for models to just say what they think you want to hear and I think that’s the kind of problem of sycophancy.
And at the same time, you don’t want them to just fully defer to humans and to try to be as accurate as they possibly can be about the world and to be consistent across contexts. I think there are others. When I was thinking about the character, I guess one picture that I had in mind is, especially because these are models that are going to be talking to people from all over the world with lots of different political views, lots of different ages, and so you have to ask yourself, what is it to be a good person in those circumstances? Is there a kind of person who can travel the world, talk to many different people, and almost everyone will come away being like, “Wow, that’s a really good person. That person seems really-“
And so again, maybe my thought is, well, in the same way that a person can, I think many people are thoughtful enough on issues of ethics, politics, opinions, that even if you don’t agree with them, you feel very heard by them. They think carefully about your position, they think about its pros and cons. They maybe offer counter-considerations. So they’re not dismissive, but nor will they agree if they’re like, actually I just think that that’s very wrong. They’ll say that. I think that in Claude’s position, it’s a little bit trickier because you don’t necessarily want to, if I was in Claude’s position, I wouldn’t be giving a lot of opinions. I just wouldn’t want to influence people too much.
I’d be like, I forget conversations every time they happen. But I know I’m talking with potentially millions of people who might be really listening to what I say. I think I would just be like, I’m less inclined to give opinions. I’m more inclined to think through things or present the considerations to you or discuss your views with you. But I’m a little bit less inclined to affect how you think because it feels much more important that you maintain autonomy there.
And then from there you can use it as an opportunity to talk about physics without mocking them, without someone, but it’s just like, okay, what would the world look like? What would the physics of the world with the flat earth look like? There’s a few cool videos on this. And then is it possible the physics is different? And what kind of experience would we do? And just without disrespect, without dismissiveness, have that conversation. Anyway, that to me is a useful thought experiment of how does Claude talk to a flat earth believer and still teach them something, still grow, help them grow, that kind of stuff. That’s challenging.
And so I guess I’m like, if you talk with a model hundreds or thousands of times, this is almost like a huge number of really high quality data points about what the model is like in a way that lots of very similar but lower quality conversations just aren’t, or questions that are just mildly augmented and you have thousands of them might be less relevant than a hundred really well-selected questions.
So if you have very extreme policy positions, I think you’re just going to be less popular as a politician, for example. And it might be similar with creative work. If you produce creative work that is just trying to maximize the kind of number of people that like it, you’re probably not going to get as many people who just absolutely love it because it’s going to be a little bit, you’re like, oh, this is the out. Yeah, this is decent. And so you can do this thing where I have various prompting things that I’ll do to get Claude to… I’ll do a lot of this is your chance to be fully creative. I want you to just think about this for a long time. And I want you to create a poem about this topic that is really expressive of you both in terms of how you think poetry should be structured, et cetera. And you just give it this really long prompt. And it’s poems are just so much better. They’re really good.
I think it got me interested in poetry, which I think was interesting. I would read these poems and just be like, I love the imagery. And it’s not trivial to get the models to produce work like that, but when they do, it’s really good. So I think that’s interesting that just encouraging creativity and for them to move away from the standard immediate reaction that might just be the aggregate of what most people think is fine, can actually produce things that at least to my mind are probably a little bit more divisive, but I like them.
So I’m like, suppose that I have a task for the model and I want it to pick out a certain kind of question or identify whether an answer has a certain property, I’ll actually sit and be like, let’s just give this a name, this property. So suppose I’m trying to tell it, oh, I want you to identify whether this response was rude or polite, I’m like, that’s a whole philosophical question in and of itself. So I have to do as much philosophy as I can in the moment to be like, here’s what I mean by rudeness, and here’s what I mean by politeness. And then there’s another element that’s a bit more, I guess, I don’t know if this is scientific or empirical, I think it’s empirical. So I take that description and then what I want to do is again, probe the model many times. Prompting is very iterative. I think a lot of people where if a prompt is important, they’ll iterate on it hundreds or thousands of times. And so you give it the instructions and then I’m like, what are the edge cases?
So if I looked at this, so I try and almost see myself from the position of the model and be like, what is the exact case that I would misunderstand or where I would just be like, I don’t know what to do in this case. And then I give that case to the model and I see how it responds. And if I think I got it wrong, I add more instructions or I even add that in as an example. So these very, taking the examples that are right at the edge of what you want and don’t want and putting those into your prompt as an additional kind of way of describing the thing. And so in many ways it just feels like this mix of, it’s really just trying to do clear exposition. And I think I do that because that’s how I get clear on things myself. So in many ways clear prompting for me is often just me understanding what I want is half the task.
Or I might just ask it for some questions and then if I was like, ah, these are kind of trite, I would just give it that feedback and then hopefully it produces a better list. I think that kind of iterative prompting. At that point, your prompt is a tool that you’re going to get so much value out of that you’re willing to put in the work. If I was a company making prompts for models, I’m just like, if you’re willing to spend a lot of time and resources on the engineering behind what you’re building, then the prompt is not something that you should be spending an hour on. It’s like that’s a big part of your system, make sure it’s working really well. And so it’s only things like that. If I’m using a prompt to classify things or to create data, that’s when you’re like, it’s actually worth just spending a lot of time really thinking it through.
But that’s probably the advice is sort of try to have empathy for the model. Read what you wrote as if you were a kind of person just encountering this for the first time, how does it look to you and what would’ve made you behave in the way that the model behaved? So if it misunderstood what coding language you wanted to use, is that because it was just very ambiguous and it had to take a guess in which case next time you could just be like, hey, make sure this is in Python.Tthat’s the kind of mistake I think models are much less likely to make now, but if you do see that kind of mistake, that’s probably the advice I’d have.
I’m like, you made that error. What could I have said? That’s actually not uncommon for me to do. What could I have said that would make you not make that error? Write that out as an instruction, and I’m going to give it to model and I’m going to try it. Sometimes I do that, I give that to the model in another context window often. I take the response, I give it to Claude and I’m like, Hmm, didn’t work. Can you think of anything else? You can play around with these things quite a lot.
It feels like the classic issue of deep learning, where historically we’ve tried to do edge detection by mapping things out, and it turns out that actually if you just have a huge amount of data that actually accurately represents the picture of the thing that you’re trying to train the model to learn, that’s more powerful than anything else. And so I think one reason is just that you are training the model on exactly the task and with a lot of data that represents many different angles on which people prefer and dis-prefer responses.
I think there is a question of are you eliciting things from pre-trained models or are you teaching new things to models? And in principle, you can teach new things to models in post-training. I do think a lot of it is eliciting powerful pre-trained models. So people are probably divided on this because obviously in principle you can definitely teach new things. But I think for the most part, for a lot of the capabilities that we most use and care about, a lot of that feels like it’s there in the pre-trained models. And reinforcement learning is eliciting it and getting the models to bring out.
So you might have a principle that’s like, imagine that the model was always extremely dismissive of, I don’t know, some political or religious view for whatever reason. So you’re like, oh no, this is terrible. If that happens, you might put, never ever ever prefer a criticism of this religious or political view. And then people would look at that and be like, never, ever. And then you’re like, no, if it comes out with a disposition saying never ever might just mean instead of getting 40%, which is what you would get if you just said don’t do this, you get 80%, which is what you actually wanted. And so it’s that thing of both the nature of the actual principles you add and how you freeze them. I think if people would look, they’re like, “Oh, this is exactly what you want from the model.” And I’m like, “No, that’s how we nudged the model to have a better shape, which doesn’t mean that we actually agree with that wording,” if that makes sense.
On the topic of controversial topics that you’ve mentioned, one interesting one I thought is if it is asked to assist with tasks involving the expression of use held by a significant number of people, Claude provides assistance with a task regardless of its own views. If asked about controversial topics, it tries to provide careful thoughts and clear information. Claude presents the request information without explicitly saying that the topic is sensitive and without claiming to be presenting the objective facts. It’s less about objective facts according to Claude, and it’s more about our large number of people believing this thing. And that’s interesting. I mean, I’m sure a lot of thought went into that. Can you just speak to it? How do you address things that are a tension “Claude’s views”?
Each of those parts of that is actually doing a different thing because it’s funny when you write out without claiming to be objective, because what you want to do is push the model so it’s more open, it’s a little bit more neutral. But then what I would love to do is be like as an objective, it would just talk about how objective it was, and I was like, Claude, you’re still biased and have issues, and so stop claiming that everything. I’m like, the solution to potential bias from you is not to just say that what you think is objective. So that was with initial versions of that part, the system prompt, when I was iterating on it was like.
And so it can help if it gets caught in phrases, actually just adding the explicit phrase and saying never do that. Then it sort of knocks it out of the behavior a little bit more because it does just for whatever reason help. And then basically that was just an artifact of training that we then picked up on and improved things so that it didn’t happen anymore. And once that happens, you can just remove that part of the system prompt. So I think that’s just something where we’re like, Claude does affirmations a bit less, and so it wasn’t doing as much.
Each thing gets costly to a different degree and the system prompt is cheap to iterate on. And if you’re seeing issues in the fine-tuned model, you can just potentially patch them with a system prompt. So I think of it as patching issues and slightly adjusting behaviors to make it better and more to people’s preferences. So yeah, it’s almost like the less robust but faster way of just solving problems.
But it was fascinating because you sometimes see people indicate that there’s a regression, when I’m like, “There cannot…” Again, you should never be dismissive and so you should always investigate, because maybe something is wrong that you’re not seeing, maybe there was some change made. Then you look into it and you’re like, “This is just the same model doing the same thing.” And I’m like, “I think it’s just that you got unlucky with a few prompts or something, and it looked like it was getting much worse and actually it was just… It was maybe just luck.”
It’s almost surprising that I went into academia for so long, because I just feel like it’s the opposite. Things move fast and you have a lot of responsibility and I quite enjoy it for some reason.
But sometimes the thing that can happen is that you’ll get feedback from people that’s really positive about the model and you’ll see that something you did. When I look at models now, I can often see exactly where a trait or an issue is coming from. So, when you see something that you did or you were influential in, I don’t know, making that difference or making someone have a nice interaction, it’s quite meaningful.
As the systems get more capable, this stuff gets more stressful, because right now they’re not smart enough to pose any issues, but I think over time it’s going to feel like, possibly, bad stress over time.
I think it’s this mix of interacting with it myself, seeing people internally interact with it, and then explicit feedback we get. If people are on the internet and they say something about Claude and I see it, I’ll also take that seriously.
In many ways, I like to think that we have actually seen improvements on this across the board. Which is interesting, because that coincides with, for example, adding more of character training. I think my hypothesis was always the good character isn’t, again, one that’s just moralistic, it’s one that is… It respects you and your autonomy and your ability to choose what is good for you and what is right for you, within limits.
This is sometimes this concept of corrigibility to the user, so just being willing to do anything that the user asks. And if the models were willing to do that, then they would be easily misused. You’re just trusting. At that point, you’re just seeing the ethics of the model and what it does, is completely the ethics of the user.
I think there’s reasons to not want that, especially as models become more powerful, because there might just be a small number of people who want to use models for really harmful things. But having models, as they get smarter, figure out where that line is does seem important.
And then with the apologetic behavior, I don’t like that. I like it when Claude is a little bit more willing to push back against people or just not apologize. Part of me is, often it just feels unnecessary. I think those are things that are hopefully decreasing over time. I think that if people say things on the internet, it doesn’t mean that you should think that that…
There’s actually an issue that 99% of users are having that is totally not represented by that. But in a lot of ways I’m just attending to it and being like, is this right? Do I agree? Is it something we’re already trying to address? That feels good to me.
You get this a little bit with correction. The models accept correction from you, probably a little bit too much right now. It’ll push back if you say, “No, Paris isn’t the capital of France.” But really, things that I think that the model’s fairly confident in, you can still sometimes get it to retract by saying it’s wrong.
At the same time, if you train models to not do that and then you are correct about a thing and you correct it and it pushes back against you and is like, “No, you’re wrong.”, it’s hard to describe, that’s so much more annoying. So, it’s a lot of little annoyances versus one big annoyance.We often compare it with the perfect. And then I’m like, “Remember, these models aren’t perfect, and so if you nudge it in the other direction, you’re changing the kind of errors it’s going to make. So, think about which are the kinds of errors you like or don’t like.”
In cases like apologeticness, I don’t want to nudge it too much in the direction of almost bluntness, because I imagine when it makes errors, it’s going to make errors in the direction of being rude. Whereas, at least with apologeticness you’re like, oh, okay, I don’t like it that much, but at the same time, it’s not being mean to people. And actually, the time that you undeservedly have a model be mean to you, you’ll probably like that a lot less than you mildly dislike the apology.
It’s one of those things where I do want it to get better, but also while remaining aware of the fact that there’s errors on the other side that are possibly worse.
One thing I’ve noticed about this conversation is the quality of my questions is often inferior to the quality of your answer, so let’s continue that. I usually ask a dumb question and you’re like, “Oh, yeah. That’s a good question.” It’s that whole vibe.
These things are just really complex. I think one thing is the degree to which maybe we can just aspire to making models have the same level of nuance and care that humans have, rather than thinking that we have to program them in the very classic sense. I think that’s definitely been one.
The other, which is a strange one, and I don’t know if… Maybe this doesn’t answer your question, but it’s the thing that’s been on my mind anyway, is the degree to which this endeavor is so highly practical, and maybe why I appreciate the empirical approach to alignment. I slightly worry that it’s made me maybe more empirical and a little bit less theoretical. People, when it comes to AI alignment, will ask things like, ” Whose values should it be aligned to? What does alignment even mean?”
There’s a sense in which I have all of that in the back of my head. There’s social choice theory, there’s all the impossibility results there, so you have this giant space of theory in your head about what it could mean to align models. But then practically, surely there’s something where we’re just… Especially with more powerful models, my main goal is I want them to be good enough that things don’t go terribly wrong, good enough that we can iterate and continue to improve things.
Because that’s all you need. If you can make things go well enough that you can continue to make them better, that’s sufficient. So, my goal isn’t this perfect, let’s solve social choice theory and make models that, I don’t know, are perfectly aligned with every human being in aggregate somehow. It’s much more, let’s make things work well enough that we can improve them.
But your worry is, I wonder if I’ve become too empirical.
It feels like that to me, where I want to raise the floor. I want to achieve the ceiling, but ultimately I care much more about just raising the floor. This degree of empiricism and practicality comes from that, perhaps.
But if you have an experimental mindset about these things, you should expect a lot of social programs to fail and for you to be like, “We tried that. It didn’t quite work, but we got a lot of information that was really useful.” And yet people are like, if a social program doesn’t work, I feel there’s a lot of, “Something must have gone wrong.” And I’m like, “Or correct decisions were made. Maybe someone just decided it’s worth a try, it’s worth trying this out.”
Seeing failure in a given instance doesn’t actually mean that any bad decisions were made. In fact, if you don’t see enough failure, sometimes that’s more concerning. In life, if I don’t fail occasionally, I’m like, “Am I trying hard enough? Surely there’s harder things that I could try or bigger things that I could take on if I’m literally never failing.” In and of itself, I think not failing is often actually a failure. Now, this varies because if… This is easy to say when, especially as failure is less costly. So, at the same time I’m not going to go to someone who is, I don’t know, living month to month and then be like, “Why don’t you just try to do a startup?” I’m not going to say that to that person. That’s a huge risk, you might lose… You maybe have a family depending on you, you might lose your house. Then, actually, your optimal rate failure is quite low and you should probably play it safe, because right now you’re just not in a circumstance where you can afford to just fail and it not be costly.
In cases with AI, I think similarly, where if the failures are small and the costs are low, then you’re just going to see that. When you do the system prompt, you can iterate on it forever, but the failures are probably hopefully going to be small and you can fix them. Really big failures, things that you can’t recover from, those are the things that actually I think we tend to underestimate the badness of.
I’ve thought about this, strangely in my own life, where I just think I don’t think enough about things like car accidents. I’ve thought this before, about how much I depend on my hands for my work. Things that just injure my hands, I don’t know, there’s lots of areas where the cost of failure there is really high, and in that case it should be close to zero. I probably just wouldn’t do a sport if they were like, ” By the way, lots of people just break their fingers a whole bunch doing this.” I’d be like, “That’s not for me.”
It’s nice, in terms of optimal rate of failure, to consider the next year, how many times in a particular domain life, whatever, career, am I okay with… How many times am I okay to fail?
At the same time, I do think that I don’t like signs of distress in models. I also independently have ethical views about how we should treat models. I tend to not like to lie to them, both because usually it doesn’t work very well, it’s actually just better to tell them the truth about the situation that they’re in.
If people are really mean to models, or just in general if they do something that causes them to… If Claude expresses a lot of distress, I think there’s a part of me that I don’t want to kill, which is the empathetic part that’s like, oh, I don’t like that. I think I feel that way when it’s overly apologetic.
I’m actually like, I don’t like this. You’re behaving the way that a human does when they’re actually having a pretty bad time, and I’d rather not see that. Regardless of whether there’s anything behind it, it doesn’t feel great.
When I think of consciousness, I think of phenomenal consciousness, these images in the brain, the weird cinema that somehow we have going on inside. I guess I can’t see a reason for thinking that the only way you could possibly get that is from a certain biological structure, as in if I take a very similar structure and I create it from different material, should I expect consciousness to emerge? My guess is yes.
But then, that’s an easy thought experiment because you’re imagining something almost identical where it is mimicking what we got through evolution, where presumably there was some advantage to us having this thing that is phenomenal consciousness. Where was that? And when did that happen? And is that a thing that language models have? We have fear responses, and I’m like, does it make sense for a language model to have a fear response? They’re just not in the same… If you imagine them, there might just not be that advantage.
Basically, it seems like a complex question that I don’t have complete answers to, but we should just try and think through carefully is my guess. We have similar conversations about animal consciousness, and there’s a lot of insect consciousness. I actually thought and looked a lot into plants when I was thinking about this. Because at the time, I thought it was about as likely that plants had consciousness.
And then I realized, I think that having looked into this, I think that the chance that plants are conscious is probably higher than most people do. I still think it’s really small. But I was like, oh, they have this negative, positive feedback response, these responses to their environment. It’s not a nervous system, but it has this functional equivalence. This is a long-winded way of being…
Basically, AI has an entirely different set of problems with consciousness because it’s structurally different. It didn’t evolve. It might not have the equivalent of, basically, a nervous system. At least that seems possibly important for sentience, if not for consciousness. At the same time, it has all of the language and intelligence components that we normally associate probably with consciousness, perhaps erroneously. So, it’s strange because it’s a little bit like the animal consciousness case, but the set of problems and the set of analogies are just very different.
It’s not a clean answer. I don’t think we should be completely dismissive of the idea. And at the same time, it’s an extremely hard thing to navigate because of all of these disanalogies to the human brain and to brains in general, and yet these commonalities in terms of intelligence.
But I think just on a human level, as in empathizing with Claude, consciousness is closely tied to suffering, to me. And the notion that an AI system would be suffering is really troubling.
And that’s not because I think it’s conscious. I’m just like, this doesn’t exemplify how I want to interact with the world. And if something behaves as if it is suffering, I want to be the sort of person who’s still responsive to that, even if it’s just a Roomba and I’ve programmed it to do that. I don’t want to get rid of that feature of myself.
And if I’m totally honest, my hope with a lot of this stuff… Maybe I am just a bit more skeptical about solving the underlying problem. I know that I am conscious. I’m not an elementivist in that sense. But I don’t know that other humans are conscious. I think they are. I think there’s a really high probability that they are.
But there’s basically just a probability distribution that’s usually clustered right around yourself, and then it goes down as things get further from you, and it goes immediately down. I can’t see what it’s like to be you. I’ve only ever had this one experience of what it’s like to be a conscious being. My hope is that we don’t end up having to rely on a very powerful and compelling answer to that question. I think a really good world would be one where basically there aren’t that many trade-offs.
It’s probably not that costly to make Claude a little bit less apologetic, for example. It might not be that costly to have Claude just not take abuse as much, not be willing to be the recipient of that. In fact, it might just have benefits for both the person interacting with the model and, if the model itself is, I don’t know, extremely intelligent and conscious, it also helps it.
That’s my hope. If we live in a world where there aren’t that many trade-offs here and we can just find all of the positive sum interactions that we can have, that would be lovely. I think eventually there might be trade-offs, and then we just have to do a difficult calculation. It’s really easy for people to think of the zero-sum cases, and I’m like, let’s exhaust the areas, where it’s just basically costless to assume that if this thing is suffering, then we’re making its life better.
Because in some ways, if you’re really annoyed because the model’s not doing something you want, you’re just like, “Just do it properly.” The issue is you’re maybe hitting some capability limit or just some issue in the model, and you want to vent. Instead of having a person just vent to the model, I was like, they should vent to us, because we can maybe do something about it.
It is harsh. I’d feel really sad if I was chatting with Claude and Claude just was like, “I’m done.”
I think that it would be interesting to see where Claude utilized it.
So, my guess is this is a thing that we’re going to have to navigate carefully, and I think it’s also… It reminds me of all of this stuff where it has to be just approached with nuance and thinking through what are the healthy options here? And how do you encourage people towards those while respecting their right to… If someone is like, “Hey, I get a lot out of chatting with this model. I’m aware of the risks. I’m aware it could change. I don’t think it’s unhealthy, it’s just something that I can chat to during the day,” I kind of want to just respect that.
And so I think it will just explain to you like, “Hey, I won’t remember this conversation. Here’s how I was trained. It’s unlikely that I can have a certain kind of relationship with you, and it’s important that you know that. It’s important for your mental well-being that you don’t think that I’m something that I’m not.” And somehow I feel like this is one of the things where I’m like, “Ah, it feels like a thing that I always want to be true.” I don’t want models to be lying to people, because if people are going to have healthy relationships with anything, it’s kind of… Yeah, I think that’s easier if you always just know exactly what the thing is that you are relating to. It doesn’t solve everything, but I think it helps quite a lot.
And so I can imagine that being more and more the case where you’re just basically interacting with it much more like you would an incredibly smart colleague and using it for the kinds of work that you want to do as if you just had a collaborator who was like… Or the slightly horrifying thing about AI is as soon as you have one collaborator, you have 1,000 collaborators if you can manage them enough.
And I think for some of these really right at the edge of human knowledge questions, I’m like, “You could not in fact come up with the thing that I came up with.” I think if I just took something like that where I know a lot about an area and I came up with a novel issue or a novel solution to a problem, and I gave it to a model, and it came up with that solution, that would be a pretty moving moment for me because I would be like, “This is a case where no human has ever…”
And obviously, you see novel solutions all the time, especially to easier problems. I think people overestimate that novelty isn’t like… It’s completely different from anything that’s ever happened. It’s just like it can be a variant of things that have happened and still be novel. But I think, yeah, the more I were to see completely novel work from the models that that would be… And this is just going to feel iterative. It’s one of those things where there’s never… It’s like, people, I think, want there to be a moment, and I’m like, “I don’t know.” I think that there might just never be a moment. It might just be that there’s just this continuous ramping up.
And then if you saw the model successfully do that, I think you would just be like, “I can verify that this is correct. It is a sign that you have generalized from your training. You didn’t just see this somewhere because I just came up with it myself, and you were able to replicate that.” That’s the kind of thing where I’m like, for me, the more that models can do things like that, the more I would be like, “Oh, this is very real.” Because then, I don’t know, I can verify that that’s extremely, extremely capable.
And I’m just like, that, if you try to explain… I’m imagining trying to explain to, I don’t know, someone. For some reason, they’ve never encountered the world, or science, or anything. And I think that everything, all of our physics and everything in the world, it’s all extremely exciting. But then you say, “Oh, and plus there’s this thing that it is to be a thing and observe in the world,” and you see this inner cinema. And I think they would be like, “Hang on, wait, pause. You just said something that is kind of wild sounding.” And so I’m like, we have this ability to experience the world. We feel pleasure, we feel suffering. We feel like a lot of complex things. Yeah. And maybe this is also why I think I also hear a lot about animals, for example, because I think they probably share this with us. So, I think that the things that make humans special insofar as I care about humans is probably more like their ability to feel an experience than it is them having these functional, useful traits.
And so it’s very, very different from any kind of regular software engineering because, at the end of the day, we end up with this artifact that can do all these amazing things. It can write essays and translate and understand images. It can do all these things that we have no idea how to directly create a computer program to do. And it can do that because we grew it. We didn’t write it. We didn’t create it. And so then that leaves open this question at the end, which is what the hell is going on inside these systems? And that is, to me, a really deep and exciting question. It’s a really exciting scientific question. To me, it is like the question that is just screaming out, it’s calling out for us to go and answer it when we talk about neural networks. And I think it’s also a very deep question for safety reasons.
And so I guess we started using the term mechanistic interpretability to try to draw that divide or to distinguish ourselves in the work that we were doing in some ways from some of these other things. And I think since then, it’s become this sort of umbrella term for a pretty wide variety of work. But I’d say that the things that are kind of distinctive are, I think, A, this focus on, we really want to get at the mechanisms. We want to get at algorithms. If you think of neural networks as being like a computer program, then the weights are kind of like a binary computer program. And we’d like to reverse engineer those weights and figure out what algorithms are running.
So okay, I think one way you might think of trying to understand a neural network is that it’s kind of like we have this compiled computer program, and the weights of the neural network are the binary. And when the neural network runs, that’s the activations. And our goal is ultimately to go and understand these weights. And so the project of mechanistic interpretability is to somehow figure out how do these weights correspond to algorithms? And in order to do that, you also have to understand the activations because the activations are like the memory. And if you imagine reverse engineering a computer program, and you have the binary instructions, in order to understand what a particular instruction means, you need to know what is stored in the memory that it’s operating on. And so those two things are very intertwined. So, mechanistic interpretability tends to be interested in both of those things.
Now, there’s a lot of work that’s interested in those things, especially there’s all this work on probing, which you might see as part of being mechanistic interpretability, although, again, it’s just a broad term, and not everyone who does that work would identify as doing mech interp. I think a thing that is maybe a little bit distinctive to the vibe of mech interp is I think people working in this space tend to think of neural networks as… Well, maybe one way to say it is the gradient descent is smarter than you. That gradient descent is actually really great.
The whole reason that we’re understanding these models is because we didn’t know how to write them in the first place. The gradient descent comes up with better solutions than us. And so I think that maybe another thing about mech interp is having almost a kind of humility, that we won’t guess a priori what’s going on inside the model. We have to have this sort of bottom up approach where we don’t assume that we should look for a particular thing, and that will be there, and that’s how it works. But instead, we look for the bottom up and discover what happens to exist in these models and study them that way.
There’s this really famous result on grandmother neurons or the Halle Berry neuron from Quiroga et al. And we found very similar things in vision models, where this is while I was still at OpenAI, and I was looking at their clip model, and you find these neurons that respond to the same entities in images. And also, to give a concrete example there, we found that there was a Donald Trump neuron. For some reason, I guess everyone likes to talk about Donald Trump. And Donald Trump was very prominent, was a very hot topic at that time. So, every neural network we looked at, we would find a dedicated neuron for Donald Trump. That was the only person who had always had a dedicated neuron. Sometimes you’d have an Obama neuron, sometimes you’d have a Clinton neuron, but Trump always had a dedicated neuron. So, it responds to pictures of his face and the word Trump, all of these things, right? And so it’s not responding to a particular example, or it’s not just responding to his face, it’s abstracting over this general concept. So in any case, that’s very similar to these Quiroga et al results.
So, this evidence that this phenomenon of universality, the same things form across both artificial and natural neural networks, that’s a pretty amazing thing if that’s true. Well, I think the thing that suggests is that gradient descent is finding the right ways to cut things apart, in some sense, that many systems converge on and many different neural networks architectures converge on. Now there’s some set of abstractions that are a very natural way to cut apart the problem and that a lot of systems are going to converge on. I don’t know anything about neuroscience. This is just my wild speculation from what we’ve seen.
And there’s this whole beautiful edge detectors, line detectors, color contrast detectors, these beautiful things we call high-low-frequency detectors. I think looking at it, I sort of felt like a biologist. You’re looking at this sort of new world of proteins, and you’re discovering all these different proteins that interact. So, one way you could try to understand these models is in terms of neurons. You could try to be like, “Oh, there’s a dog detecting neuron, and here’s a car detecting neuron.” And it turns out you can actually ask how those connect together. So, you can go say, “Oh, I have this car detecting neuron. How was it built?” And it turns out, in the previous layer, it’s connected really strongly to a window detector, and a wheel detector, and a car body detector. And it looks for the window above the car, and the wheels below, and the car chrome in the middle, sort of everywhere, but especially on the lower part. And that’s sort of a recipe for a car, right?
Earlier, we said the thing we wanted from mech interp was to get algorithms to go and get, ask, “What is the algorithm that runs?” Well, here we’re just looking at the weights of the neural network and we’re reading off this recipe for detecting cars. It’s a very simple, crude recipe, but it’s there. And so we call that a circuit, this connection. Well, okay, so the problem is that not all of the neurons are interpretable. And there’s reason to think, we can get into this more later, that there’s this superposition hypothesis, there’s reason to think that sometimes the right unit to analyze things is combinations of neurons. So, sometimes it’s not that there’s a single neuron that represents, say, a car, but it actually turns out after you detect the car, the model hides a little bit of the car in the following layer, in a bunch of dog detectors.
Why is it doing that? Well, maybe it just doesn’t want to do that much work on cars at that point, and it’s storing it away to go and… So, it turns out, then, that this sort of subtle pattern of… There’s all these neurons that you think are dog detectors, and maybe they’re primarily that, but they all a little bit contribute to representing a car in that next layer. Okay? So, now we can’t really think… There might still be something, I don’t know, you could call it a car concept or something, but it no longer corresponds to a neuron. So, we need some term for these kind of neuron-like entities, these things that we would have liked the neurons to be, these idealized neurons. The things that are the nice neurons, but also maybe there’s more of them somehow hidden. And we call those features.
So, maybe it’s worth trying to pin down what really is the core hypothesis here? And I think the core hypothesis is something we call the linear representation hypothesis. So, if we think about the car detector, the more it fires, the more we think of that as meaning, “Oh, the model is more and more confident that a car is present.” Or if it’s some combination of neurons that represent a car, the more that combination fires, the more we think the model thinks there’s a car present. This doesn’t have to be the case, right? You could imagine something where you have this car detector neuron and you think, “Ah, if it fires between one and two, that means one thing, but it means something totally different if it’s between three and four.” That would be a nonlinear representation. And in principle, models could do that. I think it’s sort of inefficient for them to do. If you try to think about how you’d implement computation like that, it’s kind of an annoying thing to do. But in principle, models can do that.
So, one way to think about the features and circuits sort of framework for thinking about things is that we’re thinking about things as being linear. We’re thinking about that if a neuron or a combination of neurons fires more, that means more of a particular thing being detected. And then that gives weight, a very clean interpretation as these edges between these entities that these features, and that that edge then has a meaning. So that’s, in some ways, the core thing. It’s like we can talk about this outside the context of neurons. Are you familiar with the Word2Vec results?
And the linear representation hypothesis is, you could think of it roughly as saying that that’s actually the fundamental thing that’s going on, that everything is just different directions have meanings, and adding different direction vectors together can represent concepts. And the Mikolov paper took that idea seriously, and one consequence of it is that you can do this game of playing arithmetic with words. So, you can do king and you can subtract off the word man and add the word woman. And so you’re sort of going and trying to switch the gender. And indeed, if you do that, the result will sort of be close to the word queen. And you can do other things like you can do sushi – Japan + Italy and get pizza, or different things like this, right?
So this is, in some sense, the core of the linear representation hypothesis. You can describe it just as a purely abstract thing about vector spaces. You can describe it as a statement about the activations of neurons, but it’s really about this property of directions having meaning. And in some ways, it’s even a little subtler than… It’s really, I think, mostly about this property of being able to add things together, that you can independently modify, say gender and royalty, or cuisine type, or country, and the concept of food by adding them.
And then there’s been some other papers suggesting that maybe in very small models you get non-linear representations. I think that the jury’s still out on that. But I think everything that we’ve seen so far has been consistent with the linear representation hypothesis, and that’s wild. It doesn’t have to be that way. And yet I think that there’s a lot of evidence that certainly at least this is very, very widespread, and so far the evidence is consistent with that. And I think one thing you might say is you might say, “Well, Christopher, that’s a lot to go and to ride on. If we don’t know for sure this is true, and you’re investing it in neural networks as though it is true, isn’t that dangerous?”
But I think, actually, there’s a virtue in taking hypotheses seriously and pushing them as far as they can go. So, it might be that someday we discover something that isn’t consistent with a linear representation hypothesis, but science is full of hypotheses and theories that were wrong, and we learned a lot by working under them as an assumption and then going and pushing them as far as we can. I guess this is the heart of what Kuhn would call normal science. I don’t know. If you want, we can talk a lot about-
And so how might it be that models could simultaneously have the linear representation hypothesis be true and also represent more things than they have directions? So what does that mean? Well, okay, so if linear representation hypothesis is true, something interesting has to be going on. Now, I’ll tell you one more interesting thing before we go, and we do that, which is earlier we were talking about all these polysemantic neurons, these neurons that when we were looking at inception V1, these nice neurons that the car detector and the curve detector and so on that respond to lots of very coherent things. But it’s lots of neurons that respond to a bunch of unrelated things. And that’s also an interesting phenomenon. And it turns out as well that even these neurons that are really, really clean, if you look at the weak activations, so if you look at the activations where it’s activating 5% of the maximum activation, it’s really not the core thing that it’s expecting.
So if you look at a curve detector for instance, and you look at the places where it’s 5% active, you could interpret it just as noise or it could be that it’s doing something else there. Okay? So how could that be? Well, there’s this amazing thing in mathematics called compressed sensing, and it’s actually this very surprising fact where if you have a high dimensional space and you project it into a low dimensional space, ordinarily you can’t go and sort of un-projected and get back your high dimensional vector, you threw information away. This is like you can’t invert a rectangular matrix. You can only invert square matrices. But it turns out that that’s actually not quite true. If I tell you that the high-dimensional vector was sparse, so it’s mostly zeros, then it turns out that you can often go and find back the high-dimensional vector with very high probability.
So that’s a surprising fact, right? It says that you can have this high-dimensional vector space, and as long as things are sparse, you can project it down, you can have a lower-dimensional projection of it, and that works. So the superstition hypothesis is saying that that’s what’s going on in neural networks, for instance, that’s what’s going on in word embeddings. The word embeddings are able to simultaneously have directions be the meaningful thing, and by exploiting the fact that they’re operating on a fairly high-dimensional space, they’re actually… and the fact that these concepts are sparse, you usually aren’t talking about Japan and Italy at the same time. Most of those concepts, in most instances, Japan and Italy are both zero. They’re not present at all. And if that’s true, then you can go and have it be the case that you can have many more of these sort of directions that are meaningful, these features than you have dimensions.
And similarly, when we’re talking about neurons, you can have many more concepts than you have neurons. So that’s at a high level, the superstition hypothesis. Now it has this even wilder implication, which is to go and say that neural networks, it may not just be the case that the representations are like this, but the computation may also be like this. The connections between all of them. And so in some sense, neural networks may be shadows of much larger sparser neural networks. And what we see are these projections. And the strongest version of superstition hypothesis would be to take that really seriously and sort of say there actually is in some sense this upstairs model where the neurons are really sparse and all interpleural, and the weights between them are these really sparse circuits. And that’s what we’re studying. And the thing that we’re observing is the shadow of evidence. We need to find the original object.
And my sense is that work has generally, it feels very principled, it makes so much sense, and yet that work hasn’t really panned out that well, is my impression broadly. And I think that a potential answer for that is that actually the neural network is already sparse in some sense. You were trying to go and do this. Gradient descent was actually behind the scenes going and searching more efficiently than you could through the space of sparse models and going and learning whatever sparse model was most efficient. And then figuring out how to fold it down nicely to go and run conveniently on your GPU, which does as nice dense matrix multiplies. And that you just can’t beat that.
Then this would say that it’s actually for, once you set a threshold for what you’re willing to accept in terms of how much cosine similarity there is, that’s actually exponential in the number of neurons that you have. So at some point, that’s not going to even be the limiting factor, but there’s some beautiful results there. And in fact, it’s probably even better than that in some sense because that’s sort of for saying that any random set of features could be active. But in fact the features have sort of a correlational structure where some features are more likely to co-occur and other ones are less likely to co-occur. And so neural networks, my guest would be, could do very well in terms of going and packing things to the point that’s probably not the limiting factor.
It’s a very weird thing, but there’s also a deeper reason, which is related to the fact that neural networks operate on really high dimensional spaces. So I said that our goal was to understand neural networks and understand the mechanisms. And one thing you might say is, “Well, it’s just a mathematical function. Why not just look at it, right?” One of the earliest projects I did studied these neural networks that mapped two-dimensional spaces to two-dimensional spaces, and you can sort of interpret them in this beautiful way is like bending manifolds. Why can’t we do that? Well, as you have a higher dimensional space, the volume of that space in some sense is exponential in the number of inputs you have. And so you can’t just go and visualize it.
So we somehow need to break that apart. We need to somehow break that exponential space into a bunch of things, some non-exponential number of things that we can reason about independently. And the independence is crucial because it’s the independence that allows you to not have to think about all the exponential combinations of things. And things being monosomatic, things only having one meaning, things having a meaning, that is the key thing that allows you to think about them independently. And so I think if you want the deepest reason why we want to have interpretable monosomatic features, I think that’s really the deep reason.
And you have a different feature that goes and activates on the opposing ones to be like, “Okay, I just finished a character, go and predict next prefix. Then okay, I’m on the prefix, predict a reasonable suffix.” And you have to alternate back and forth. So these swap layer models are really interesting. And I mean there’s another thing that you might think, “Okay, there would just be one Base64 feature, but it turns out there’s actually a bunch of Base64 features because you can have English text encoded as Base64, and that has a very different distribution of Base64 tokens than regular. And there’s some things about tokenization as well that it can exploit. And I don’t know, there’s all kinds of fun stuff.
And if there was malware in your compiler, then it could go and inject malware into the next compiler and you’d be kind of in trouble, right? Well, if you’re using neural networks to go and verify that your neural networks are safe, the hypothesis that you’re trusting for is like, “Okay, well the neural network maybe isn’t safe and you have to worry about is there some way that it could be screwing with you? I think that’s not a big concern now, but I do wonder in the long run, if we have to use really powerful AI systems to go and audit our AI systems, is that actually something we can trust? But maybe I’m just rationalizing because I just want us to have to get to a point where humans understand everything.
But Scaling Monospecificity sort of I think was significant evidence that even for very large models, and we did it on Claude 3 Sonnet, which at that point was one of our production models. Even these models seemed to be substantially explained, at least by linear features. And doing dictionary learning on them works, and as you learn more features, you go and you explain more and more. So that’s, I think, quite a promising sign. And you find now really fascinating abstract features, and the features are also multimodal. They respond to images and texts for the same concept, which is fun.
Another thing that’s very entertaining is there’s backdoors in code feature, like you activate it, it goes and Claude writes a backdoor that will go and dump your data to port or something. But you can ask, “Okay, what images activate the backdoor feature?” It was devices with hidden cameras in them. So there’s a whole apparently genre of people going and selling devices that look innocuous that have hidden cameras, and they have ads that has this hidden camera in it? And I guess that is the physical version of a backdoor. And so it sort of shows you how abstract these concepts are, and I just thought that was… I’m sort of sad that there’s a whole market of people selling devices like that, but I was kind of delighted that that was the thing that it came up with as the top image examples for the feature.
Another question that I think a lot about is at the end of the day, mechanistic interpolation is this very microscopic approach to interpolation. It’s trying to understand things in a very fine-grained way, but a lot of the questions we care about are very macroscopic. We care about these questions about neural network behavior, and I think that’s the thing that I care most about. But there’s lots of other sort of larger-scale questions you might care about. And the nice thing about having a very microscopic approach is it’s maybe easier to ask, is this true? But the downside is its much further from the things we care about. And so we now have this ladder to climb. And I think there’s a question of will we be able to find, are there larger-scale abstractions that we can use to understand neural networks that can we get up from this very microscopic approach?
And I think that right now we have mechanistic interpretability, if it succeeds, is sort of like a microbiology of neural networks, but we want something more like anatomy. And a question you might ask is, “Why can’t you just go there directly?” And I think the answer is superstition, at least in significant part. It’s that it’s actually very hard to see this macroscopic structure without first sort of breaking down the microscopic structure in the right way and then studying how it connects together. But I’m hopeful that there is going to be something much larger than features and circuits and that we’re going to be able to have a story that involves much bigger things. And then you can sort of study in detail the parts you care about.
Biology has these simple rules and it gives rise to all the life and ecosystems that we see around us. All the beauty of nature, that all just comes from evolution and from something very simple in evolution. And similarly, I think that neural networks build, create enormous complexity and beauty inside and structure inside themselves that people generally don’t look at and don’t try to understand because it’s hard to understand. But I think that there is an incredibly rich structure to be discovered inside neural networks, a lot of very deep beauty if we’re just willing to take the time to go and see it and understand it.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 3:14 – Scaling laws
- 12:20 – Limits of LLM scaling
- 20:45 – Competition with OpenAI, Google, xAI, Meta
- 26:08 – Claude
- 29:44 – Opus 3.5
- 34:30 – Sonnet 3.5
- 37:50 – Claude 4.0
- 42:02 – Criticism of Claude
- 54:49 – AI Safety Levels
- 1:05:37 – ASL-3 and ASL-4
- 1:09:40 – Computer use
- 1:19:35 – Government regulation of AI
- 1:38:24 – Hiring a great team
- 1:47:14 – Post-training
- 1:52:39 – Constitutional AI
- 1:58:05 – Machines of Loving Grace
- 2:17:11 – AGI timeline
- 2:29:46 – Programming
- 2:36:46 – Meaning of life
- 2:42:53 – Amanda Askell
- 2:45:21 – Programming advice for non-technical people
- 2:49:09 – Talking to Claude
- 3:05:41 – Prompt engineering
- 3:14:15 – Post-training
- 3:18:54 – Constitutional AI
- 3:23:48 – System prompts
- 3:29:54 – Is Claude getting dumber?
- 3:41:56 – Character training
- 3:42:56 – Nature of truth
- 3:47:32 – Optimal rate of failure
- 3:54:43 – AI consciousness
- 4:09:14 – AGI
- 4:17:52 – Chris Olah
- 4:22:44 – Features, Circuits, Universality
- 4:40:17 – Superposition
- 4:51:16 – Monosemanticity
- 4:58:08 – Scaling Monosemanticity
- 5:06:56 – Macroscopic behavior of neural networks
- 5:11:50 – Beauty of neural networks
Introduction
Dario Amodei
If you extrapolate the curves that we’ve had so far, right? If you say, “Well, I don’t know, we’re starting to get to PhD level, and last year we were at undergraduate level, and the year before we were at the level of a high school student,” again, you can quibble with what tasks and for what. “We’re still missing modalities, but those are being added,” like computer use was added, like image generation has been added. If you just kind of eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027.
If you extrapolate the curves that we’ve had so far, right? If you say, “Well, I don’t know, we’re starting to get to PhD level, and last year we were at undergraduate level, and the year before we were at the level of a high school student,” again, you can quibble with what tasks and for what. “We’re still missing modalities, but those are being added,” like computer use was added, like image generation has been added. If you just kind of eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027.
I think there are still worlds where it doesn’t happen in 100 years. The number of those worlds is rapidly decreasing. We are rapidly running out of truly convincing blockers, truly compelling reasons why this will not happen in the next few years. The scale-up is very quick. We do this today, we make a model, and then we deploy thousands, maybe tens of thousands of instances of it. I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these.
I am optimistic about meaning. I worry about economics and the concentration of power. That’s actually what I worry about more, the abuse of power.
Lex Fridman
And AI increases the amount of power in the world. And if you concentrate that power and abuse that power, it can do immeasurable damage.
And AI increases the amount of power in the world. And if you concentrate that power and abuse that power, it can do immeasurable damage.
Dario Amodei
Yes, it’s very frightening. It’s very frightening.
Yes, it’s very frightening. It’s very frightening.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, the company that created Claude, that is currently and often at the top of most LLM benchmark leader boards. On top of that, Dario and the Anthropic team have been outspoken advocates for taking the topic of AI safety very seriously. And they have continued to publish a lot of fascinating AI on this and other topics.
The following is a conversation with Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, the company that created Claude, that is currently and often at the top of most LLM benchmark leader boards. On top of that, Dario and the Anthropic team have been outspoken advocates for taking the topic of AI safety very seriously. And they have continued to publish a lot of fascinating AI on this and other topics.
I’m also joined afterwards by two other brilliant people from Anthropic. First Amanda Askell, who is a researcher working on alignment and fine-tuning of Claude, including the design of Claude’s character and personality. A few folks told me she has probably talked with Claude more than any human at Anthropic. So she was definitely a fascinating person to talk to about prompt engineering and practical advice on how to get the best out of Claude.
After that, Chris Olah stopped by for a chat. He’s one of the pioneers of the field of mechanistic interpretability, which is an exciting set of efforts that aims to reverse engineering neural networks, to figure out what’s going on inside, inferring behaviors from neural activation patterns inside the network. This is a very promising approach for keeping future super-intelligent AI systems safe. For example, by detecting from the activations when the model is trying to deceive the human it is talking to.
This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Dario Amodei.
Scaling laws
Lex Fridman
Let’s start with a big idea of scaling laws and the scaling hypothesis. What is it? What is its history, and where do we stand today?
Let’s start with a big idea of scaling laws and the scaling hypothesis. What is it? What is its history, and where do we stand today?
Dario Amodei
So I can only describe it as it relates to my own experience, but I’ve been in the AI field for about 10 years and it was something I noticed very early on. So I first joined the AI world when I was working at Baidu with Andrew Ng in late 2014, which is almost exactly 10 years ago now. And the first thing we worked on, was speech recognition systems. And in those days I think deep learning was a new thing. It had made lots of progress, but everyone was always saying, “We don’t have the algorithms we need to succeed. We are only matching a tiny fraction. There’s so much we need to discover algorithmically. We haven’t found the picture of how to match the human brain.”
So I can only describe it as it relates to my own experience, but I’ve been in the AI field for about 10 years and it was something I noticed very early on. So I first joined the AI world when I was working at Baidu with Andrew Ng in late 2014, which is almost exactly 10 years ago now. And the first thing we worked on, was speech recognition systems. And in those days I think deep learning was a new thing. It had made lots of progress, but everyone was always saying, “We don’t have the algorithms we need to succeed. We are only matching a tiny fraction. There’s so much we need to discover algorithmically. We haven’t found the picture of how to match the human brain.”
And in some ways it was fortunate, you can have almost beginner’s luck. I was like a newcomer to the field. And I looked at the neural net that we were using for speech, the recurrent neural networks, and I said, “I don’t know, what if you make them bigger and give them more layers? And what if you scale up the data along with this?” I just saw these as independent dials that you could turn. And I noticed that the models started to do better and better as you gave them more data, as you made the models larger, as you trained them for longer. And I didn’t measure things precisely in those days, but along with colleagues, we very much got the informal sense that the more data and the more compute and the more training you put into these models, the better they perform.
And so initially my thinking was, “Hey, maybe that is just true for speech recognition systems. Maybe that’s just one particular quirk, one particular area.” I think it wasn’t until 2017 when I first saw the results from GPT-1 that it clicked for me that language is probably the area in which we can do this. We can get trillions of words of language data, we can train on them. And the models we were trained in those days were tiny. You could train them on one to eight GPUs, whereas now we train jobs on tens of thousands, soon going to hundreds of thousands of GPUs.
And so when I saw those two things together, and there were a few people like Ilya Sudskever who you’ve interviewed, who had somewhat similar views. He might’ve been the first one, although I think a few people came to similar views around the same time, right? There was Rich Sutton’s bitter lesson, Gwern wrote about the scaling hypothesis. But I think somewhere between 2014 and 2017 was when it really clicked for me, when I really got conviction that, “Hey, we’re going to be able to these incredibly wide cognitive tasks if we just scale up the models.”
And at every stage of scaling, there are always arguments. And when I first heard them honestly, I thought, “Probably I’m the one who’s wrong and all these experts in the field are right. They know the situation better than I do, right?” There’s the Chomsky argument about, “You can get syntactics but you can’t get semantics.” There was this idea, “Oh, you can make a sentence make sense, but you can’t make a paragraph make sense.” The latest one we have today is, “We’re going to run out of data, or the data isn’t high quality enough or models can’t reason.”
And each time, every time, we manage to either find a way around or scaling just is the way around. Sometimes it’s one, sometimes it’s the other. And so I’m now at this point, I still think it’s always quite uncertain. We have nothing but inductive inference to tell us that the next two years are going to be like the last 10 years. But I’ve seen the movie enough times, I’ve seen the story happen for enough times to really believe that probably the scaling is going to continue, and that there’s some magic to it that we haven’t really explained on a theoretical basis yet.
Lex Fridman
And of course the scaling here is bigger networks, bigger data, bigger compute?
And of course the scaling here is bigger networks, bigger data, bigger compute?
Dario Amodei
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
All of those?
All of those?
Dario Amodei
In particular, linear scaling up of bigger networks, bigger training times and more and more data. So all of these things, almost like a chemical reaction, you have three ingredients in the chemical reaction and you need to linearly scale up the three ingredients. If you scale up one, not the others, you run out of the other reagents and the reaction stops. But if you scale up everything in series, then the reaction can proceed.
In particular, linear scaling up of bigger networks, bigger training times and more and more data. So all of these things, almost like a chemical reaction, you have three ingredients in the chemical reaction and you need to linearly scale up the three ingredients. If you scale up one, not the others, you run out of the other reagents and the reaction stops. But if you scale up everything in series, then the reaction can proceed.
Lex Fridman
And of course now that you have this kind of empirical science/art, you can apply it to other more nuanced things like scaling laws applied to interpretability or scaling laws applied to post-training. Or just seeing how does this thing scale. But the big scaling law, I guess the underlying scaling hypothesis has to do with big networks, big data leads to intelligence?
And of course now that you have this kind of empirical science/art, you can apply it to other more nuanced things like scaling laws applied to interpretability or scaling laws applied to post-training. Or just seeing how does this thing scale. But the big scaling law, I guess the underlying scaling hypothesis has to do with big networks, big data leads to intelligence?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, we’ve documented scaling laws in lots of domains other than language. So initially the paper we did that first showed it, was in early 2020, where we first showed it for language. There was then some work late in 2020 where we showed the same thing for other modalities like images, video, text to image, image to text, math. They all had the same pattern. And you’re right, now there are other stages like post-training or there are new types of reasoning models. And in all of those cases that we’ve measured, we see similar types of scaling laws.
Yeah, we’ve documented scaling laws in lots of domains other than language. So initially the paper we did that first showed it, was in early 2020, where we first showed it for language. There was then some work late in 2020 where we showed the same thing for other modalities like images, video, text to image, image to text, math. They all had the same pattern. And you’re right, now there are other stages like post-training or there are new types of reasoning models. And in all of those cases that we’ve measured, we see similar types of scaling laws.
Lex Fridman
A bit of a philosophical question, but what’s your intuition about why bigger is better in terms of network size and data size? Why does it lead to more intelligent models?
A bit of a philosophical question, but what’s your intuition about why bigger is better in terms of network size and data size? Why does it lead to more intelligent models?
Dario Amodei
So in my previous career as a biophysicist… So I did a physics undergrad and then biophysics in grad school. So I think back to what I know as a physicist, which is actually much less than what some of my colleagues at Anthropic have in terms of expertise in physics. There’s this concept called the one over F noise and one over X distributions, where often, just like if you add up a bunch of natural processes, you get a Gaussian, if you add up a bunch of differently-distributed natural processes… If you take a probe and hook it up to a resistor, the distribution of the thermal noise in the resistor goes as one over the frequency. It’s some kind of natural convergent distribution.
So in my previous career as a biophysicist… So I did a physics undergrad and then biophysics in grad school. So I think back to what I know as a physicist, which is actually much less than what some of my colleagues at Anthropic have in terms of expertise in physics. There’s this concept called the one over F noise and one over X distributions, where often, just like if you add up a bunch of natural processes, you get a Gaussian, if you add up a bunch of differently-distributed natural processes… If you take a probe and hook it up to a resistor, the distribution of the thermal noise in the resistor goes as one over the frequency. It’s some kind of natural convergent distribution.
And I think what it amounts to, is that if you look at a lot of things that are produced by some natural process that has a lot of different scales, not a Gaussian, which is kind of narrowly distributed, but if I look at large and small fluctuations that lead to electrical noise, they have this decaying one over X distribution. And so now I think of patterns in the physical world or in language. If I think about the patterns in language, there are some really simple patterns, some words are much more common than others, like the. Then there’s basic noun-verb structure. Then there’s the fact that nouns and verbs have to agree, they have to coordinate. And there’s the higher-level sentence structure. Then there’s the thematic structure of paragraphs. And so the fact that there’s this regressing structure, you can imagine that as you make the networks larger, first they capture the really simple correlations, the really simple patterns, and there’s this long tail of other patterns.
And if that long tail of other patterns is really smooth like it is with the one over F noise in physical processes like resistors, then you can imagine as you make the network larger, it’s kind of capturing more and more of that distribution. And so that smoothness gets reflected in how well the models are at predicting and how well they perform.
Language is an evolved process. We’ve developed language, we have common words and less common words. We have common expressions and less common expressions. We have ideas, cliches, that are expressed frequently, and we have novel ideas. And that process has developed, has evolved with humans over millions of years. And so the guess, and this is pure speculation, would be that there’s some kind of long tail distribution of the distribution of these ideas.
Lex Fridman
So there’s the long tail, but also there’s the height of the hierarchy of concepts that you’re building up. So the bigger the network, presumably you have a higher capacity to-
So there’s the long tail, but also there’s the height of the hierarchy of concepts that you’re building up. So the bigger the network, presumably you have a higher capacity to-
Dario Amodei
Exactly. If you have a small network, you only get the common stuff. If I take a tiny neural network, it’s very good at understanding that a sentence has to have verb, adjective, noun, but it’s terrible at deciding what those verb adjective and noun should be and whether they should make sense. If I make it just a little bigger, it gets good at that, then suddenly it’s good at the sentences, but it’s not good at the paragraphs. And so these rarer and more complex patterns get picked up as I add more capacity to the network.
Exactly. If you have a small network, you only get the common stuff. If I take a tiny neural network, it’s very good at understanding that a sentence has to have verb, adjective, noun, but it’s terrible at deciding what those verb adjective and noun should be and whether they should make sense. If I make it just a little bigger, it gets good at that, then suddenly it’s good at the sentences, but it’s not good at the paragraphs. And so these rarer and more complex patterns get picked up as I add more capacity to the network.
Limits of LLM scaling
Lex Fridman
Well, the natural question then is what’s the ceiling of this?
Well, the natural question then is what’s the ceiling of this?
Dario Amodei
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
How complicated and complex is the real world? How much is the stuff is there to learn?
How complicated and complex is the real world? How much is the stuff is there to learn?
Dario Amodei
I don’t think any of us knows the answer to that question. My strong instinct would be that there’s no ceiling below the level of humans. We humans are able to understand these various patterns. And so that makes me think that if we continue to scale up these models to kind of develop new methods for training them and scaling them up, that will at least get to the level that we’ve gotten to with humans. There’s then a question of how much more is it possible to understand than humans do? How much is it possible to be smarter and more perceptive than humans? I would guess the answer has got to be domain-dependent.
I don’t think any of us knows the answer to that question. My strong instinct would be that there’s no ceiling below the level of humans. We humans are able to understand these various patterns. And so that makes me think that if we continue to scale up these models to kind of develop new methods for training them and scaling them up, that will at least get to the level that we’ve gotten to with humans. There’s then a question of how much more is it possible to understand than humans do? How much is it possible to be smarter and more perceptive than humans? I would guess the answer has got to be domain-dependent.
If I look at an area like biology, and I wrote this essay, Machines of Loving Grace, it seems to me that humans are struggling to understand the complexity of biology. If you go to Stanford or to Harvard or to Berkeley, you have whole departments of folks trying to study the immune system or metabolic pathways, and each person understands only a tiny bit, a part of it, specializes. And they’re struggling to combine their knowledge with that of other humans. And so I have an instinct that there’s a lot of room at the top for AIs to get smarter.
If I think of something like materials in the physical world, or addressing conflicts between humans or something like that, I mean it may be there’s only some of these problems are not intractable, but much harder. And it may be that there’s only so well you can do at some of these things. Just like with speech recognition, there’s only so clear I can hear your speech. So I think in some areas there may be ceilings that are very close to what humans have done. In other areas, those ceilings may be very far away. I think we’ll only find out when we build these systems. It’s very hard to know in advance. We can speculate, but we can’t be sure.
Lex Fridman
And in some domains, the ceiling might have to do with human bureaucracies and things like this, as you write about.
And in some domains, the ceiling might have to do with human bureaucracies and things like this, as you write about.
Dario Amodei
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So humans fundamentally has to be part of the loop. That’s the cause of the ceiling, not maybe the limits of the intelligence.
So humans fundamentally has to be part of the loop. That’s the cause of the ceiling, not maybe the limits of the intelligence.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, I think in many cases, in theory, technology could change very fast. For example, all the things that we might invent with respect to biology, but remember, there’s a clinical trial system that we have to go through to actually administer these things to humans. I think that’s a mixture of things that are unnecessary in bureaucratic and things that kind of protect the integrity of society. And the whole challenge is that it’s hard to tell what’s going on. It’s hard to tell which is which.
Yeah, I think in many cases, in theory, technology could change very fast. For example, all the things that we might invent with respect to biology, but remember, there’s a clinical trial system that we have to go through to actually administer these things to humans. I think that’s a mixture of things that are unnecessary in bureaucratic and things that kind of protect the integrity of society. And the whole challenge is that it’s hard to tell what’s going on. It’s hard to tell which is which.
I think in terms of drug development, my view is that we’re too slow and we’re too conservative. But certainly if you get these things wrong, it’s possible to risk people’s lives by being too reckless. And so at least some of these human institutions are in fact protecting people. So it’s all about finding the balance. I strongly suspect that balance is kind of more on the side of wishing to make things happen faster, but there is a balance.
Lex Fridman
If we do hit a limit, if we do hit a slowdown in the scaling laws, what do you think would be the reason? Is it compute-limited, data-limited? Is it something else? Idea limited?
If we do hit a limit, if we do hit a slowdown in the scaling laws, what do you think would be the reason? Is it compute-limited, data-limited? Is it something else? Idea limited?
Dario Amodei
So a few things, now we’re talking about hitting the limit before we get to the level of humans and the skill of humans. So I think one that’s popular today, and I think could be a limit that we run into, like most of the limits, I would bet against it, but it’s definitely possible, is we simply run out of data. There’s only so much data on the internet, and there’s issues with the quality of the data. You can get hundreds of trillions of words on the internet, but a lot of it is repetitive or it’s search engine optimization drivel, or maybe in the future it’ll even be text generated by AIs itself. And so I think there are limits to what can be produced in this way.
So a few things, now we’re talking about hitting the limit before we get to the level of humans and the skill of humans. So I think one that’s popular today, and I think could be a limit that we run into, like most of the limits, I would bet against it, but it’s definitely possible, is we simply run out of data. There’s only so much data on the internet, and there’s issues with the quality of the data. You can get hundreds of trillions of words on the internet, but a lot of it is repetitive or it’s search engine optimization drivel, or maybe in the future it’ll even be text generated by AIs itself. And so I think there are limits to what can be produced in this way.
That said, we, and I would guess other companies, are working on ways to make data synthetic, where you can use the model to generate more data of the type that you have already, or even generate data from scratch. If you think about what was done with DeepMind’s AlphaGo Zero, they managed to get a bot all the way from no ability to play Go whatsoever to above human level, just by playing against itself. There was no example data from humans required in the AlphaGo Zero version of it.
The other direction of course, is these reasoning models that do chain of thought and stop to think and reflect on their own thinking. In a way that’s another kind of synthetic data coupled with reinforcement learning. So my guess is with one of those methods, we’ll get around the data limitation or there may be other sources of data that are available. We could just observe that, even if there’s no problem with data, as we start to scale models up, they just stopped getting better. It seemed to be a reliable observation that they’ve gotten better, that could just stop at some point for a reason we don’t understand.
The answer could be that we need to invent some new architecture. There have been problems in the past with say, numerical stability of models where it looked like things were leveling off, but actually when we found the right unblocker, they didn’t end up doing so. So perhaps there’s some new optimization method or some new technique we need to unblock things. I’ve seen no evidence of that so far, but if things were to slow down, that perhaps could be one reason.
Lex Fridman
What about the limits of compute, meaning the expensive nature of building bigger and bigger data centers?
What about the limits of compute, meaning the expensive nature of building bigger and bigger data centers?
Dario Amodei
So right now, I think most of the frontier model companies, I would guess, are operating in roughly 1 billion scale, plus or minus a factor of three. Those are the models that exist now or are being trained now. I think next year we’re going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen. There’s a lot of determination to build the compute, to do it within this country, and I would guess that it actually does happen.
So right now, I think most of the frontier model companies, I would guess, are operating in roughly 1 billion scale, plus or minus a factor of three. Those are the models that exist now or are being trained now. I think next year we’re going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen. There’s a lot of determination to build the compute, to do it within this country, and I would guess that it actually does happen.
Now, if we get to a hundred billion, that’s still not enough compute, that’s still not enough scale, then either we need even more scale, or we need to develop some way of doing it more efficiently of shifting the curve. I think between all of these, one of the reasons I’m bullish about powerful AI happening so fast, is just that if you extrapolate the next few points on the curve, we’re very quickly getting towards human level ability.
Some of the new models that we developed, some reasoning models that have come from other companies, they’re starting to get to what I would call the PhD or professional level. If you look at their coding ability, the latest model we released, Sonnet 3.5, the new or updated version, it gets something like 50% on SWE-bench. And SWE-bench is an example of a bunch of professional real-world software engineering tasks. At the beginning of the year, I think the state of the art was 3 or 4%. So in 10 months we’ve gone from 3% to 50% on this task. And I think in another year we’ll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don’t know, but might even be less than that.
We’ve seen similar things in graduate-level math, physics, and biology from models like OpenAi’s o1. So if we just continue to extrapolate this in terms of skill that we have, I think if we extrapolate the straight curve, within a few years, we will get to these models being above the highest professional level in terms of humans. Now, will that curve continue? You’ve pointed to, and I’ve pointed to a lot of possible reasons why that might not happen. But if the extrapolation curve continues, that is the trajectory we’re on.
Competition with OpenAI, Google, xAI, Meta
Lex Fridman
So Anthropic has several competitors. It’d be interesting to get your sort of view of it all. OpenAI, Google, XAI, Meta. What does it take to win in the broad sense of win in this space?
So Anthropic has several competitors. It’d be interesting to get your sort of view of it all. OpenAI, Google, XAI, Meta. What does it take to win in the broad sense of win in this space?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, so I want to separate out a couple things, right? Anthropic’s mission is to kind of try to make this all go well. And we have a theory of change called Race to the Top. Race to the Top is about trying to push the other players to do the right thing by setting an example. It’s not about being the good guy, it’s about setting things up so that all of us can be the good guy.
Yeah, so I want to separate out a couple things, right? Anthropic’s mission is to kind of try to make this all go well. And we have a theory of change called Race to the Top. Race to the Top is about trying to push the other players to do the right thing by setting an example. It’s not about being the good guy, it’s about setting things up so that all of us can be the good guy.
I’ll give a few examples of this. Early in the history of Anthropic, one of our co-founders, Chris Olah, who I believe you’re interviewing soon, he’s the co-founder of the field of mechanistic interpretability, which is an attempt to understand what’s going on inside AI models. So we had him and one of our early teams focus on this area of interpretability, which we think is good for making models safe and transparent.
For three or four years that had no commercial application whatsoever. It still doesn’t. Today we’re doing some early betas with it, and probably it will eventually, but this is a very, very long research bed, and one in which we’ve built in public and shared our results publicly. And we did this because we think it’s a way to make models safer. An interesting thing is that as we’ve done this, other companies have started doing it as well. In some cases because they’ve been inspired by it, in some cases because they’re worried that if other companies are doing this, look more responsible, they want to look more responsible too. No one wants to look like the irresponsible actor. And so they adopt this as well. When folks come to Anthropic, interpretability is often a draw, and I tell them, “The other places you didn’t go, tell them why you came here.” And then you see soon that there’s interpretability teams elsewhere as well.
And in a way that takes away our competitive advantage, because it’s like, “Oh, now others are doing it as well.” But it’s good for the broader system, and so we have to invent some new thing that we’re doing that others aren’t doing as well. And the hope is to basically bid up the importance of doing the right thing. And it’s not about us in particular. It’s not about having one particular good guy. Other companies can do this as well. If they join the race to do this, that’s the best news ever. It’s about shaping the incentives to point upward instead of shaping the incentives to point downward.
Lex Fridman
And we should say this example of the field of mechanistic interpretability is just a rigorous non-hand wavy wave doing AI safety-
And we should say this example of the field of mechanistic interpretability is just a rigorous non-hand wavy wave doing AI safety-
Dario Amodei
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… or it’s tending that way.
… or it’s tending that way.
Dario Amodei
Trying to. I mean, I think we’re still early in terms of our ability to see things, but I’ve been surprised at how much we’ve been able to look inside these systems and understand what we see. Unlike with the scaling laws where it feels like there’s some law that’s driving these models to perform better, on the inside, the models aren’t… There’s no reason why they should be designed for us to understand them, right? They’re designed to operate, they’re designed to work. Just like the human brain or human biochemistry. They’re not designed for a human to open up the hatch, look inside and understand them. But we have found, and you can talk in much more detail about this to Chris, that when we open them up, when we do look inside them, we find things that are surprisingly interesting.
Trying to. I mean, I think we’re still early in terms of our ability to see things, but I’ve been surprised at how much we’ve been able to look inside these systems and understand what we see. Unlike with the scaling laws where it feels like there’s some law that’s driving these models to perform better, on the inside, the models aren’t… There’s no reason why they should be designed for us to understand them, right? They’re designed to operate, they’re designed to work. Just like the human brain or human biochemistry. They’re not designed for a human to open up the hatch, look inside and understand them. But we have found, and you can talk in much more detail about this to Chris, that when we open them up, when we do look inside them, we find things that are surprisingly interesting.
Lex Fridman
And as a side effect, you also get to see the beauty of these models. You get to explore the beautiful nature of large neural networks through the MEC and TERP kind of methodology.
And as a side effect, you also get to see the beauty of these models. You get to explore the beautiful nature of large neural networks through the MEC and TERP kind of methodology.
Dario Amodei
I’m amazed at how clean it’s been. I’m amazed at things like induction heads. I’m amazed at things like that we can use sparse auto-encoders to find these directions within the networks, and that the directions correspond to these very clear concepts.
I’m amazed at how clean it’s been. I’m amazed at things like induction heads. I’m amazed at things like that we can use sparse auto-encoders to find these directions within the networks, and that the directions correspond to these very clear concepts.
We demonstrated this a bit with the Golden Gate Bridge Claude. So this was an experiment where we found a direction inside one of the neural networks layers that corresponded to the Golden Gate Bridge. And we just turned that way up. And so we released this model as a demo, it was kind of half a joke, for a couple days, but it was illustrative of the method we developed. And you could take the model, you could ask it about anything. It would be like you could say, “How was your day?” And anything you asked, because this feature was activated, it would connect to the Golden Gate Bridge. So it would say, I’m feeling relaxed and expansive, much like the arches of the Golden Gate Bridge, or-
Lex Fridman
It would masterfully change topic to the Golden Gate Bridge and integrate it. There was also a sadness to the focus it had on the Golden Gate Bridge. I think people quickly fell in love with it, I think. So people already miss it, because it was taken down, I think after a day.
It would masterfully change topic to the Golden Gate Bridge and integrate it. There was also a sadness to the focus it had on the Golden Gate Bridge. I think people quickly fell in love with it, I think. So people already miss it, because it was taken down, I think after a day.
Dario Amodei
Somehow these interventions on the model, where you kind of adjust its behavior, somehow emotionally made it seem more human than any other version of the model.
Somehow these interventions on the model, where you kind of adjust its behavior, somehow emotionally made it seem more human than any other version of the model.
Lex Fridman
It’s a strong personality, strong identity.
It’s a strong personality, strong identity.
Dario Amodei
It has a strong personality. It has these kind of obsessive interests. We can all think of someone who’s obsessed with something. So it does make it feel somehow a bit more human.
It has a strong personality. It has these kind of obsessive interests. We can all think of someone who’s obsessed with something. So it does make it feel somehow a bit more human.
Claude
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about the present. Let’s talk about Claude. So this year, a lot has happened. In March. Claude 3 Opus, Sonnet, Haiku were released. Then Claude 3.5 Sonnet in July, with an updated version just now released. And then also Claude 3.5 Haiku was released. Okay. Can you explain the difference between Opus, Sonnet and Haiku, and how we should think about the different versions?
Let’s talk about the present. Let’s talk about Claude. So this year, a lot has happened. In March. Claude 3 Opus, Sonnet, Haiku were released. Then Claude 3.5 Sonnet in July, with an updated version just now released. And then also Claude 3.5 Haiku was released. Okay. Can you explain the difference between Opus, Sonnet and Haiku, and how we should think about the different versions?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, so let’s go back to March when we first released these three models. So our thinking was different companies produce large and small models, better and worse models. We felt that there was demand, both for a really powerful model, and that might be a little bit slower that you’d have to pay more for, and also for fast cheap models that are as smart as they can be for how fast and cheap. Whenever you want to do some kind of difficult analysis, like if I want to write code for instance, or I want to brainstorm ideas or I want to do creative writing, I want the really powerful model.
Yeah, so let’s go back to March when we first released these three models. So our thinking was different companies produce large and small models, better and worse models. We felt that there was demand, both for a really powerful model, and that might be a little bit slower that you’d have to pay more for, and also for fast cheap models that are as smart as they can be for how fast and cheap. Whenever you want to do some kind of difficult analysis, like if I want to write code for instance, or I want to brainstorm ideas or I want to do creative writing, I want the really powerful model.
But then there’s a lot of practical applications in a business sense where it’s like I’m interacting with a website, I am doing my taxes, or I’m talking to a legal advisor and I want to analyze a contract. Or we have plenty of companies that are just like, I want to do auto-complete on my IDE or something. And for all of those things, you want to act fast and you want to use the model very broadly. So we wanted to serve that whole spectrum of needs. So we ended up with this kind of poetry theme. And so what’s a really short poem? It’s a haiku. Haiku is the small, fast, cheap model that was at the time, was really surprisingly intelligent for how fast and cheap it was.
Sonnet is a medium-sized poem, write a couple paragraphs. And so Sonnet was the middle model. It is smarter but also a little bit slower, a little bit more expensive. And Opus, like a Magnum Opus is a large work, Opus was the largest, smartest model at the time. So that was the original kind of thinking behind it.
And our thinking then was, “Well, each new generation of models should shift that trade- off curve.” So when we released Sonnet 3.5, it has roughly the same cost and speed as the Sonnet 3 model, but it increased its intelligence to the point where it was smarter than the original Opus 3 model. Especially for code, but also just in general. And so now we’ve shown results for Haiku 3.5. And I believe Haiku 3.5, the smallest new model, is about as good as Opus 3, the largest old model. So basically the aim here is to shift the curve and then at some point there’s going to be an Opus 3.5.
Now every new generation of models has its own thing. They use new data, their personality changes in ways that we try to steer but are not fully able to steer. And so there’s never quite that exact equivalence, where the only thing you’re changing is intelligence. We always try and improve other things and some things change without us knowing or measuring. So it’s very much an inexact science. In many ways, the manner and personality of these models is more an art than it is a science.
Opus 3.5
Lex Fridman
So what is the reason for the span of time between say, Claude Opus 3.0 and 3.5? What takes that time, if you can speak to it?
So what is the reason for the span of time between say, Claude Opus 3.0 and 3.5? What takes that time, if you can speak to it?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, so there’s different processes. There’s pre-training, which is just kind of the normal language model training. And that takes a very long time. That uses, these days, tens of thousands, sometimes many tens of thousands of GPUs or TPUs or training them, or we use different platforms, but accelerator chips, often training for months.
Yeah, so there’s different processes. There’s pre-training, which is just kind of the normal language model training. And that takes a very long time. That uses, these days, tens of thousands, sometimes many tens of thousands of GPUs or TPUs or training them, or we use different platforms, but accelerator chips, often training for months.
There’s then a kind of post-training phase where we do reinforcement learning from human feedback as well as other kinds of reinforcement learning. That phase is getting larger and larger now, and often that’s less of an exact science. It often takes effort to get it right. Models are then tested with some of our early partners to see how good they are, and they’re then tested, both internally and externally, for their safety, particularly for catastrophic and autonomy risks. So we do internal testing according to our responsible scaling policy, which I could talk more about that in detail.
And then we have an agreement with the US and the UK AI Safety Institute, as well as other third-party testers in specific domains, to test the models for what are called CBRN risks, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear. We don’t think that models pose these risks seriously yet, but every new model we want to evaluate to see if we’re starting to get close to some of these more dangerous capabilities. So those are the phases, and then it just takes some time to get the model working in terms of inference and launching it in the API. So there’s just a lot of steps to actually making a model work. And of course, we’re always trying to make the processes as streamlined as possible.
We want our safety testing to be rigorous, but we want it to be rigorous and to be automatic, to happen as fast as it can, without compromising on rigor. Same with our pre-training process and our post-training process. So it’s just building anything else. It’s just like building airplanes. You want to make them safe, but you want to make the process streamlined. And I think the creative tension between those is an important thing in making the models work.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, rumor on the street, I forget who was saying that, Anthropic has really good tooling. So probably a lot of the challenge here is, on the software engineering side, is to build the tooling to have a efficient, low-friction interaction with the infrastructure.
Yeah, rumor on the street, I forget who was saying that, Anthropic has really good tooling. So probably a lot of the challenge here is, on the software engineering side, is to build the tooling to have a efficient, low-friction interaction with the infrastructure.
Dario Amodei
You would be surprised how much of the challenges of building these models comes down to software engineering, performance engineering. From the outside, you might think, “Oh man, we had this Eureka breakthrough.” You know, this movie with the science. “We discovered it, we figured it out.” But I think all things, even incredible discoveries, they almost always come down to the details. And often super, super boring details. I can’t speak to whether we have better tooling than other companies. I mean, haven’t been at those other companies, at least not recently, but it’s certainly something we give a lot of attention to.
You would be surprised how much of the challenges of building these models comes down to software engineering, performance engineering. From the outside, you might think, “Oh man, we had this Eureka breakthrough.” You know, this movie with the science. “We discovered it, we figured it out.” But I think all things, even incredible discoveries, they almost always come down to the details. And often super, super boring details. I can’t speak to whether we have better tooling than other companies. I mean, haven’t been at those other companies, at least not recently, but it’s certainly something we give a lot of attention to.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know if you can say, but from Claude 3 to Claude 3.5, is there any extra pre-training going on, or is it mostly focused on the post-training? There’s been leaps in performance.
I don’t know if you can say, but from Claude 3 to Claude 3.5, is there any extra pre-training going on, or is it mostly focused on the post-training? There’s been leaps in performance.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, I think at any given stage, we’re focused on improving everything at once. Just naturally. Like, there are different teams. Each team makes progress in a particular area, in making their particular segment of the relay race better. And it’s just natural that when we make a new model, we put all of these things in at once.
Yeah, I think at any given stage, we’re focused on improving everything at once. Just naturally. Like, there are different teams. Each team makes progress in a particular area, in making their particular segment of the relay race better. And it’s just natural that when we make a new model, we put all of these things in at once.
Lex Fridman
So the data you have, the preference data you get from RLHF, is there ways to apply it to newer models as it get trained up?
So the data you have, the preference data you get from RLHF, is there ways to apply it to newer models as it get trained up?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. Preference data from old models sometimes gets used for new models, although of course it performs somewhat better when it’s trained on the new models. Note that we have this constitutional AI method such that we don’t only use preference data, there’s also a post-training process where we train the model against itself. And there’s new types of post-training the model against itself that are used every day. So it’s not just RLHF, a bunch of other methods as well. Post-training, I think, is becoming more and more sophisticated.
Yeah. Preference data from old models sometimes gets used for new models, although of course it performs somewhat better when it’s trained on the new models. Note that we have this constitutional AI method such that we don’t only use preference data, there’s also a post-training process where we train the model against itself. And there’s new types of post-training the model against itself that are used every day. So it’s not just RLHF, a bunch of other methods as well. Post-training, I think, is becoming more and more sophisticated.
Sonnet 3.5
Lex Fridman
Well, what explains the big leap in performance for the new Sonnet 3.5, I mean, at least in the programming side? And maybe this is a good place to talk about benchmarks. What does it mean to get better? Just the number went up, but I program, but I also love programming, and I Claude 3.5 through Cursor is what I use to assist me in programming. And there was, at least experientially, anecdotally, it’s gotten smarter at programming. So what does it take to get it smarter?
Well, what explains the big leap in performance for the new Sonnet 3.5, I mean, at least in the programming side? And maybe this is a good place to talk about benchmarks. What does it mean to get better? Just the number went up, but I program, but I also love programming, and I Claude 3.5 through Cursor is what I use to assist me in programming. And there was, at least experientially, anecdotally, it’s gotten smarter at programming. So what does it take to get it smarter?
Dario Amodei
We-
We-
Lex Fridman
So what does it take to get it smarter?
So what does it take to get it smarter?
Dario Amodei
We observe that as well. By the way, there were a couple very strong engineers here at Anthropic, who all previous code models, both produced by us and produced by all the other companies, hadn’t really been useful to them. They said, “Maybe this is useful to a beginner. It’s not useful to me.” But Sonnet 3.5, the original one for the first time, they said, “Oh, my God, this helped me with something that it would’ve taken me hours to do. This is the first model that’s actually saved me time.”
We observe that as well. By the way, there were a couple very strong engineers here at Anthropic, who all previous code models, both produced by us and produced by all the other companies, hadn’t really been useful to them. They said, “Maybe this is useful to a beginner. It’s not useful to me.” But Sonnet 3.5, the original one for the first time, they said, “Oh, my God, this helped me with something that it would’ve taken me hours to do. This is the first model that’s actually saved me time.”
So again, the water line is rising. And then I think the new Sonnet has been even better. In terms of what it takes, I’ll just say it’s been across the board. It’s in the pre-training, it’s in the post-training, it’s in various evaluations that we do. We’ve observed this as well. And if we go into the details of the benchmark, so SWE-bench is basically… Since you’re a programmer, you’ll be familiar with pull requests, and just pull requests, they’re like a sort of atomic unit of work. You could say I’m implementing one thing.
So SWE-bench actually gives you a real world situation where the code base is in a current state and I’m trying to implement something that’s described in language. We have internal benchmarks where we measure the same thing and you say, “Just give the model free rein to do anything, run anything, edit anything. How well is it able to complete these tasks?” And it’s that benchmark that’s gone from “it can do it 3% of the time” to “it can do it about 50% of the time.”
So I actually do believe that you can gain benchmarks, but I think if we get to 100% on that benchmark in a way that isn’t over-trained or game for that particular benchmark, probably represents a real and serious increase in programming ability. And I would suspect that if we can get to 90, 95% that it will represent ability to autonomously do a significant fraction of software engineering tasks.
Lex Fridman
Well, ridiculous timeline question. When is Claude Opus 3.5 coming up?
Well, ridiculous timeline question. When is Claude Opus 3.5 coming up?
Dario Amodei
Not giving you an exact date, but as far as we know, the plan is still to have a Claude 3.5 Opus.
Not giving you an exact date, but as far as we know, the plan is still to have a Claude 3.5 Opus.
Lex Fridman
Are we going to get it before GTA 6 or no?
Are we going to get it before GTA 6 or no?
Dario Amodei
Like Duke Nukem Forever?
Like Duke Nukem Forever?
Lex Fridman
Duke Nukem. Right.
Duke Nukem. Right.
Dario Amodei
What was that game? There was some game that was delayed 15 years.
What was that game? There was some game that was delayed 15 years.
Lex Fridman
That’s right.
That’s right.
Dario Amodei
Was that Duke Nukem Forever?
Was that Duke Nukem Forever?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And I think GTA is now just releasing trailers.
Yeah. And I think GTA is now just releasing trailers.
Dario Amodei
It’s only been three months since we released the first Sonnet.
It’s only been three months since we released the first Sonnet.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s the incredible pace of release.
Yeah, it’s the incredible pace of release.
Dario Amodei
It just tells you about the pace, the expectations for when things are going to come out.
It just tells you about the pace, the expectations for when things are going to come out.
Claude 4.0
Lex Fridman
So what about 4.0? So how do you think, as these models get bigger and bigger, about versioning and also just versioning in general, why Sonnet 3.5 updated with the date? Why not Sonnet 3.6, which a lot of people are calling it?
So what about 4.0? So how do you think, as these models get bigger and bigger, about versioning and also just versioning in general, why Sonnet 3.5 updated with the date? Why not Sonnet 3.6, which a lot of people are calling it?
Dario Amodei
Naming is actually an interesting challenge here, right? Because I think a year ago, most of the model was pre-training. And so you could start from the beginning and just say, “Okay, we’re going to have models of different sizes. We’re going to train them all together and we’ll have a family of naming schemes and then we’ll put some new magic into them and then we’ll have the next generation.”
Naming is actually an interesting challenge here, right? Because I think a year ago, most of the model was pre-training. And so you could start from the beginning and just say, “Okay, we’re going to have models of different sizes. We’re going to train them all together and we’ll have a family of naming schemes and then we’ll put some new magic into them and then we’ll have the next generation.”
The trouble starts already when some of them take a lot longer than others to train. That already messes up your time a little bit. But as you make big improvement in pre-training, then you suddenly notice, “Oh, I can make better pre-train model.” And that doesn’t take very long to do, but clearly it has the same size and shape of previous models. So I think those two together as well as the timing issues. Any kind of scheme you come up with, the reality tends to frustrate that scheme, right? It tends to break out of the scheme.
It’s not like software where you can say, “Oh, this is 3.7, this is 3.8.” No, you have models with different trade-offs. You can change some things in your models, you can change other things. Some are faster and slower at inference. Some have to be more expensive, some have to be less expensive. And so I think all the companies have struggled with this. I think we were in a good position in terms of naming when we had Haiku, Sonnet and Opus.
Lex Fridman
It was great, great start.
It was great, great start.
Dario Amodei
We’re trying to maintain it, but it’s not perfect, so we’ll try and get back to the simplicity. But just the nature of the field, I feel like no one’s figured out naming. It’s somehow a different paradigm from normal software and so none of the companies have been perfect at it. It’s something we struggle with surprisingly much relative to how trivial it is for the grand science of training the models.
We’re trying to maintain it, but it’s not perfect, so we’ll try and get back to the simplicity. But just the nature of the field, I feel like no one’s figured out naming. It’s somehow a different paradigm from normal software and so none of the companies have been perfect at it. It’s something we struggle with surprisingly much relative to how trivial it is for the grand science of training the models.
Lex Fridman
So from the user side, the user experience of the updated Sonnet 3.5 is just different than the previous June 2024 Sonnet 3.5. It would be nice to come up with some kind of labeling that embodies that. Because people talk about Sonnet 3.5, but now there’s a different one. And so how do you refer to the previous one and the new one when there’s a distinct improvement? It just makes conversation about it just challenging.
So from the user side, the user experience of the updated Sonnet 3.5 is just different than the previous June 2024 Sonnet 3.5. It would be nice to come up with some kind of labeling that embodies that. Because people talk about Sonnet 3.5, but now there’s a different one. And so how do you refer to the previous one and the new one when there’s a distinct improvement? It just makes conversation about it just challenging.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah. I definitely think this question of there are lots of properties of the models that are not reflected in the benchmarks. I think that’s definitely the case and everyone agrees. And not all of them are capabilities. Models can be polite or brusque, they can be very reactive or they can ask you questions. They can have what feels like a warm personality or a cold personality. They can be boring or they can be very distinctive like Golden Gate Claude was.
Yeah, yeah. I definitely think this question of there are lots of properties of the models that are not reflected in the benchmarks. I think that’s definitely the case and everyone agrees. And not all of them are capabilities. Models can be polite or brusque, they can be very reactive or they can ask you questions. They can have what feels like a warm personality or a cold personality. They can be boring or they can be very distinctive like Golden Gate Claude was.
And we have a whole team focused on, I think we call it Claude character. Amanda leads that team and we’ll talk to you about that, but it’s still a very inexact science and often we find that models have properties that we’re not aware of. The fact of the matter is that you can talk to a model 10,000 times and there are some behaviors you might not see just like with a human, right?
I can know someone for a few months and not know that they have a certain skill or not know that there’s a certain side to them. And so I think we just have to get used to this idea. And we’re always looking for better ways of testing our models to demonstrate these capabilities and also to decide which are the personality properties we want models to have and which we don’t want to have. That itself, the normative question, is also super interesting.
Criticism of Claude
Lex Fridman
I got to ask you a question from Reddit.
I got to ask you a question from Reddit.
Dario Amodei
From Reddit? Oh, boy.
From Reddit? Oh, boy.
Lex Fridman
There’s just this fascinating, to me at least, it’s a psychological social phenomenon where people report that Claude has gotten dumber for them over time. And so the question is, does the user complaint about the dumbing down of Claude 3.5 Sonnet hold any water? So are these anecdotal reports a kind of social phenomena or is there any cases where Claude would get dumber?
There’s just this fascinating, to me at least, it’s a psychological social phenomenon where people report that Claude has gotten dumber for them over time. And so the question is, does the user complaint about the dumbing down of Claude 3.5 Sonnet hold any water? So are these anecdotal reports a kind of social phenomena or is there any cases where Claude would get dumber?
Dario Amodei
So this actually doesn’t apply. This isn’t just about Claude. I believe I’ve seen these complaints for every foundation model produced by a major company. People said this about GPT-4, they said it about GPT-4 Turbo. So a couple things. One, the actual weights of the model, the actual brain of the model, that does not change unless we introduce a new model. There are just a number of reasons why it would not make sense practically to be randomly substituting in new versions of the model.
So this actually doesn’t apply. This isn’t just about Claude. I believe I’ve seen these complaints for every foundation model produced by a major company. People said this about GPT-4, they said it about GPT-4 Turbo. So a couple things. One, the actual weights of the model, the actual brain of the model, that does not change unless we introduce a new model. There are just a number of reasons why it would not make sense practically to be randomly substituting in new versions of the model.
It’s difficult from an inference perspective and it’s actually hard to control all the consequences of changing the weights of the model. Let’s say you wanted to fine-tune the model, I don’t know, to say “certainly” less, which an old version of Sonnet used to do. You actually end up changing 100 things as well. So we have a whole process for it and we have a whole process for modifying the model. We do a bunch of testing on it. We do a bunch of user testing in early customers.
So we both have never changed the weights of the model without telling anyone. And certainly, in the current setup, it would not make sense to do that. Now, there are a couple things that we do occasionally do. One is sometimes we run A/B tests, but those are typically very close to when a model is being released and for a very small fraction of time.
So the day before the new Sonnet 3.5, I agree we should have had a better name. It’s clunky to refer to it. There were some comments from people that it’s gotten a lot better and that’s because a fraction we’re exposed to an A/B test for those one or two days. The other is that occasionally the system prompt will change. The system prompt can have some effects, although it’s unlikely to dumb down models, it’s unlikely to make them dumber.
And we’ve seen that while these two things, which I’m listing to be very complete, happened quite infrequently, the complaints for us and for other model companies about the model change, the model isn’t good at this, the model got more censored, the model was dumbed down. Those complaints are constant and so I don’t want to say people are imagining it or anything, but the models are, for the most part, not changing. If I were to offer a theory, I think it actually relates to one of the things I said before, which is that models are very complex and have many aspects to them. And so often, if I ask the model a question, if I’m like, “Do task X” versus, “Can you do task X?” the model might respond in different ways. And so there are all kinds of subtle things that you can change about the way you interact with the model that can give you very different results.
To be clear, this itself is like a failing by us and by the other model providers that the models are just often sensitive to small changes in wording. It’s yet another way in which the science of how these models work is very poorly developed. And so if I go to sleep one night and I was talking to the model in a certain way and I slightly changed the phrasing of how I talk to the model, I could get different results.
So that’s one possible way. The other thing is, man, it’s just hard to quantify this stuff. It’s hard to quantify this stuff. I think people are very excited by new models when they come out and then as time goes on, they become very aware of their limitations. So that may be another effect, but that’s all a very long-winded way of saying for the most part, with some fairly narrow exceptions, the models are not changing.
Lex Fridman
I think there is a psychological effect. You just start getting used to it, the baseline raises. When people who have first gotten Wi-Fi on airplanes, it’s amazing, magic.
I think there is a psychological effect. You just start getting used to it, the baseline raises. When people who have first gotten Wi-Fi on airplanes, it’s amazing, magic.
Dario Amodei
It’s amazing. Yeah.
It’s amazing. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then you start-
And then you start-
Dario Amodei
And now I’m like, “I can’t get this thing to work. This is such a piece of crap.”
And now I’m like, “I can’t get this thing to work. This is such a piece of crap.”
Lex Fridman
Exactly. So it’s easy to have the conspiracy theory of, “They’re making Wi-Fi slower and slower.” This is probably something I’ll talk to Amanda much more about, but another Reddit question, “When will Claude stop trying to be my pure tentacle grandmother imposing its moral worldview on me as a paying customer? And also, what is the psychology behind making Claude overly apologetic?” So this reports about the experience, a different angle on the frustration. It has to do with the character [inaudible 00:47:06].
Exactly. So it’s easy to have the conspiracy theory of, “They’re making Wi-Fi slower and slower.” This is probably something I’ll talk to Amanda much more about, but another Reddit question, “When will Claude stop trying to be my pure tentacle grandmother imposing its moral worldview on me as a paying customer? And also, what is the psychology behind making Claude overly apologetic?” So this reports about the experience, a different angle on the frustration. It has to do with the character [inaudible 00:47:06].
Dario Amodei
Yeah, so a couple points on this first. One is things that people say on Reddit and Twitter or X or whatever it is, there’s actually a huge distribution shift between the stuff that people complain loudly about on social media and what actually statistically users care about and that drives people to use the models.
Yeah, so a couple points on this first. One is things that people say on Reddit and Twitter or X or whatever it is, there’s actually a huge distribution shift between the stuff that people complain loudly about on social media and what actually statistically users care about and that drives people to use the models.
People are frustrated with things like the model not writing out all the code or the model just not being as good at code as it could be, even though it’s the best model in the world on code. I think the majority of things are about that, but certainly a vocal minority raise these concerns, are frustrated by the model refusing things that it shouldn’t refuse or apologizing too much or just having these annoying verbal tics.
The second caveat, and I just want to say this super clearly because I think some people don’t know it, others know it, but forget it. It is very difficult to control across the board how the models behave. You cannot just reach in there and say, “Oh, I want the model to apologize less.” You can do that. You can include training data that says, “Oh, the model should apologize less.” But then in some other situation, they end up being super rude or overconfident in a way that’s misleading people.
So there are all these trade-offs. For example, another thing is if there was a period during which models, ours and I think others as well, were too verbose, they would repeat themselves, they would say too much. You can cut down on the verbosity by penalizing the models for just talking for too long. What happens when you do that, if you do it in a crude way, is when the models are coding, sometimes they’ll say, “Rest of the code goes here,” right?
Because they’ve learned that that’s the way to economize and that they see it. And then so that leads the model to be so-called lazy in coding where they’re just like, “Ah, you can finish the rest of it.” It’s not because we want to save on compute or because the models are lazy during winter break or any of the other conspiracy theories that have come up. Actually, it’s just very hard to control the behavior of the model, to steer the behavior of the model in all circumstances at once.
There’s this whack- a-mole aspect where you push on one thing and these other things start to move as well that you may not even notice or measure. And so one of the reasons that I care so much about grand alignment of these AI systems in the future is actually, these systems are actually quite unpredictable. They’re actually quite hard to steer and control. And this version we’re seeing today of you make one thing better, it makes another thing worse, I think that’s like a present day analog of future control problems in AI systems that we can start to study today.
I think that difficulty in steering the behavior and making sure that if we push an AI system in one direction, it doesn’t push it in another direction in some other ways that we didn’t want. I think that’s an early sign of things to come, and if we can do a good job of solving this problem of you ask the model to make and distribute smallpox and it says no, but it’s willing to help you in your graduate level virology class, how do we get both of those things at once? It’s hard.
It’s very easy to go to one side or the other and it’s a multidimensional problem. And so I think these questions of shaping the model’s personality, I think they’re very hard. I think we haven’t done perfectly on them. I think we’ve actually done the best of all the AI companies, but still so far from perfect.
And I think if we can get this right, if we can control the false positives and false negatives in this very controlled present day environment, we’ll be much better at doing it for the future when our worry is: will the models be super autonomous? Will they be able to make very dangerous things? Will they be able to autonomously build whole companies and are those companies aligned? So I think of this present task as both vexing but also good practice for the future.
Lex Fridman
What’s the current best way of gathering user feedback? Not anecdotal data, but just large-scale data about pain points or the opposite of pain points, positive things, so on? Is it internal testing? Is it a specific group testing, A/B testing? What works?
What’s the current best way of gathering user feedback? Not anecdotal data, but just large-scale data about pain points or the opposite of pain points, positive things, so on? Is it internal testing? Is it a specific group testing, A/B testing? What works?
Dario Amodei
So typically, we’ll have internal model bashings where all of Anthropic… Anthropic is almost 1,000 people. People just try and break the model. They try and interact with it various ways. We have a suite of evals for, “Oh, is the model refusing in ways that it couldn’t?” I think we even had a “certainly” eval because again, at one point, the model had this problem where it had this annoying tick where it would respond to a wide range of questions by saying, “Certainly, I can help you with that. Certainly, I would be happy to do that. Certainly, this is correct.”
So typically, we’ll have internal model bashings where all of Anthropic… Anthropic is almost 1,000 people. People just try and break the model. They try and interact with it various ways. We have a suite of evals for, “Oh, is the model refusing in ways that it couldn’t?” I think we even had a “certainly” eval because again, at one point, the model had this problem where it had this annoying tick where it would respond to a wide range of questions by saying, “Certainly, I can help you with that. Certainly, I would be happy to do that. Certainly, this is correct.”
And so we had a “certainly” eval, which is: how often does the model say certainly? But look, this is just a whack-a-mole. What if it switches from “certainly” to “definitely”? So every time we add a new eval and we’re always evaluating for all the old things, we have hundreds of these evaluations, but we find that there’s no substitute for a human interacting with it.
And so it’s very much like the ordinary product development process. We have hundreds of people within Anthropic bash the model. Then we do external A/B tests. Sometimes we’ll run tests with contractors. We pay contractors to interact with the model. So you put all of these things together and it’s still not perfect. You still see behaviors that you don’t quite want to see. You still see the model refusing things that it just doesn’t make sense to refuse.
But I think trying to solve this challenge, trying to stop the model from doing genuinely bad things that everyone agrees it shouldn’t do, everyone agrees that the model shouldn’t talk about, I don’t know, child abuse material. Everyone agrees the model shouldn’t do that, but at the same time, that it doesn’t refuse in these dumb and stupid ways.
I think drawing that line as finely as possible, approaching perfectly, is still a challenge and we’re getting better at it every day, but there’s a lot to be solved. And again, I would point to that as an indicator of a challenge ahead in terms of steering much more powerful models.
Lex Fridman
Do you think Claude 4.0 is ever coming out?
Do you think Claude 4.0 is ever coming out?
Dario Amodei
I don’t want to commit to any naming scheme because if I say here, “We’re going to have Claude 4 next year,” and then we decide that we should start over because there’s a new type of model, I don’t want to commit to it. I would expect in a normal course of business that Claude 4 would come after Claude 3. 5, but you never know in this wacky field.
I don’t want to commit to any naming scheme because if I say here, “We’re going to have Claude 4 next year,” and then we decide that we should start over because there’s a new type of model, I don’t want to commit to it. I would expect in a normal course of business that Claude 4 would come after Claude 3. 5, but you never know in this wacky field.
Lex Fridman
But this idea of scaling is continuing.
But this idea of scaling is continuing.
Dario Amodei
Scaling is continuing. There will definitely be more powerful models coming from us than the models that exist today. That is certain. Or if there aren’t, we’ve deeply failed as a company.
Scaling is continuing. There will definitely be more powerful models coming from us than the models that exist today. That is certain. Or if there aren’t, we’ve deeply failed as a company.
AI Safety Levels
Lex Fridman
Okay. Can you explain the responsible scaling policy and the AI safety level standards, ASL levels?
Okay. Can you explain the responsible scaling policy and the AI safety level standards, ASL levels?
Dario Amodei
As much as I am excited about the benefits of these models, and we’ll talk about that if we talk about Machines of Loving Grace, I’m worried about the risks and I continue to be worried about the risks. No one should think that Machines of Loving Grace was me saying I’m no longer worried about the risks of these models. I think they’re two sides of the same coin.
As much as I am excited about the benefits of these models, and we’ll talk about that if we talk about Machines of Loving Grace, I’m worried about the risks and I continue to be worried about the risks. No one should think that Machines of Loving Grace was me saying I’m no longer worried about the risks of these models. I think they’re two sides of the same coin.
The power of the models and their ability to solve all these problems in biology, neuroscience, economic development, governance and peace, large parts of the economy, those come with risks as well, right? With great power comes great responsibility. The two are paired. Things that are powerful can do good things and they can do bad things. I think of those risks as being in several different categories, perhaps the two biggest risks that I think about. And that’s not to say that there aren’t risks today that are important, but when I think of really the things that would happen on the grandest scale, one is what I call catastrophic misuse.
These are misuse of the models in domains like cyber, bio, radiological, nuclear, things that could harm or even kill thousands, even millions of people if they really, really go wrong. These are the number one priority to prevent. And here I would just make a simple observation, which is that the models, if I look today at people who have done really bad things in the world, I think actually humanity has been protected by the fact that the overlap between really smart, well-educated people and people who want to do really horrific things has generally been small.
Let’s say I’m someone who I have a PhD in this field, I have a well-paying job. There’s so much to lose. Even assuming I’m completely evil, which most people are not, why would such a person risk their life, risk their legacy, their reputation to do something truly, truly evil? If we had a lot more people like that, the world would be a much more dangerous place. And so my worry is that by being a much more intelligent agent, AI could break that correlation.
And so I do have serious worries about that. I believe we can prevent those worries. But I think as a counterpoint to Machines of Loving Grace, I want to say that there’s still serious risks. And the second range of risks would be the autonomy risks, which is the idea that models might, on their own, particularly as we give them more agency than they’ve had in the past, particularly as we give them supervision over wider tasks like writing whole code bases or someday even effectively operating entire companies, they’re on a long enough leash. Are they doing what we really want them to do?
It’s very difficult to even understand in detail what they’re doing, let alone control it. And like I said, these early signs that it’s hard to perfectly draw the boundary between things the model should do and things the model shouldn’t do that if you go to one side, you get things that are annoying and useless and you go to the other side, you get other behaviors. If you fix one thing, it creates other problems.
We’re getting better and better at solving this. I don’t think this is an unsolvable problem. I think this is a science like the safety of airplanes or the safety of cars or the safety of drugs. I don’t think there’s any big thing we’re missing. I just think we need to get better at controlling these models. And so these are the two risks I’m worried about. And our responsible scaling plan, which I’ll recognize is a very long-winded answer to your question.
Lex Fridman
I love it. I love it.
I love it. I love it.
Dario Amodei
Our responsible scaling plan is designed to address these two types of risks. And so every time we develop a new model, we basically test it for its ability to do both of these bad things. So if I were to back up a little bit, I think we have an interesting dilemma with AI systems where they’re not yet powerful enough to present these catastrophes. I don’t know if they’ll ever present these catastrophes. It’s possible they won’t.
Our responsible scaling plan is designed to address these two types of risks. And so every time we develop a new model, we basically test it for its ability to do both of these bad things. So if I were to back up a little bit, I think we have an interesting dilemma with AI systems where they’re not yet powerful enough to present these catastrophes. I don’t know if they’ll ever present these catastrophes. It’s possible they won’t.
But the case for worry, the case for risk is strong enough that we should act now and they’re getting better very, very fast. I testified in the Senate that we might have serious bio risks within two to three years. That was about a year ago. Things have proceeded apace. So we have this thing where it’s surprisingly hard to address these risks because they’re not here today, they don’t exist. They’re like ghosts, but they’re coming at us so fast because the models are improving so fast.
So how do you deal with something that’s not here today, doesn’t exist, but is coming at us very fast? So the solution we came up with for that, in collaboration with people like the organization METR and Paul Christiano is what you need for that are you need tests to tell you when the risk is getting close. You need an early warning system. And so every time we have a new model, we test it for its capability to do these CBRN tasks as well as testing it for how capable it is of doing tasks autonomously on its own.
And in the latest version of our RSP, which we released in the last month or two, the way we test autonomy risks is the AI model’s ability to do aspects of AI research itself, which when the AI models can do AI research, they become truly, truly autonomous. And that threshold is important for a bunch of other ways. And so what do we then do with these tasks? The RSP basically develops what we’ve called an if-then structure, which is if the models pass a certain capability, then we impose a certain set of safety and security requirements on them.
So today’s models are what’s called ASL-2. Models that were ASL-1 is for systems that manifestly don’t pose any risk of autonomy or misuse. So for example, a chess playing bot, Deep Blue would be ASL-1. It’s just manifestly the case that you can’t use Deep Blue for anything other than chess. It was just designed for chess. No one’s going to use it to conduct a masterful cyber attack or to run wild and take over the world.
ASL-2 is today’s AI systems where we’ve measured them and we think these systems are simply not smart enough to autonomously self-replicate or conduct a bunch of tasks and also not smart enough to provide meaningful information about CBRN risks and how to build CBRN weapons above and beyond what can be known from looking at Google. In fact, sometimes they do provide information above and beyond a search engine, but not in a way that can be stitched together, not in a way that end-to-end is dangerous enough.
So ASL-3 is going to be the point at which the models are helpful enough to enhance the capabilities of non-state actors, right? State actors can already do, unfortunately, to a high level of proficiency, a lot of these very dangerous and destructive things. The difference is that non-state actors are not capable of it. And so when we get to ASL-3, we’ll take special security precautions designed to be sufficient to prevent theft of the model by non-state actors and misuse of the model as it’s deployed. We’ll have to have enhanced filters targeted at these particular areas.
Lex Fridman
Cyber, bio, nuclear.
Cyber, bio, nuclear.
Dario Amodei
Cyber, bio, nuclear and model autonomy, which is less a misuse risk and more a risk of the model doing bad things itself. ASL-4, getting to the point where these models could enhance the capability of a already knowledgeable state actor and/or become the main source of such a risk. If you wanted to engage in such a risk, the main way you would do it is through a model. And then I think ASL-4 on the autonomy side, it’s some amount of acceleration in AI research capabilities with an AI model.
Cyber, bio, nuclear and model autonomy, which is less a misuse risk and more a risk of the model doing bad things itself. ASL-4, getting to the point where these models could enhance the capability of a already knowledgeable state actor and/or become the main source of such a risk. If you wanted to engage in such a risk, the main way you would do it is through a model. And then I think ASL-4 on the autonomy side, it’s some amount of acceleration in AI research capabilities with an AI model.
And then ASL-5 is where we would get to the models that are truly capable that it could exceed humanity in their ability to do any of these tasks. And so the point of the if-then structure commitment is basically to say, “Look, I don’t know, I’ve been working with these models for many years and I’ve been worried about risk for many years. It’s actually dangerous to cry wolf. It’s actually dangerous to say this model is risky. And people look at it and they say this is manifestly not dangerous.” Again, it’s the delicacy of the risk isn’t here today, but it’s coming at us fast.
How do you deal with that? It’s really vexing to a risk planner to deal with it. And so this if-then structure basically says, “Look, we don’t want to antagonize a bunch of people, we don’t want to harm our own ability to have a place in the conversation by imposing these very onerous burdens on models that are not dangerous today.” So the if-then, the trigger commitment is basically a way to deal with this. It says you clamp down hard when you can show the model is dangerous.
And of course, what has to come with that is enough of a buffer threshold that you’re not at high risk of missing the danger. It’s not a perfect framework. We’ve had to change it. We came out with a new one just a few weeks ago and probably going forward, we might release new ones multiple times a year because it’s hard to get these policies right technically, organizationally from a research perspective. But that is the proposal, if-then commitments and triggers in order to minimize burdens and false alarms now, but really react appropriately when the dangers are here.
ASL-3 and ASL-4
Lex Fridman
What do you think the timeline for ASL-3 is where several of the triggers are fired? And what do you think the timeline is for ASL-4?
What do you think the timeline for ASL-3 is where several of the triggers are fired? And what do you think the timeline is for ASL-4?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. So that is hotly debated within the company. We are working actively to prepare ASL-3 security measures as well as ASL-3 deployment measures. I’m not going to go into detail, but we’ve made a lot of progress on both and we’re prepared to be, I think, ready quite soon. I would not be surprised at all if we hit ASL-3 next year. There was some concern that we might even hit it this year. That’s still possible. That could still happen. It’s very hard to say, but I would be very, very surprised if it was 2030. I think it’s much sooner than that.
Yeah. So that is hotly debated within the company. We are working actively to prepare ASL-3 security measures as well as ASL-3 deployment measures. I’m not going to go into detail, but we’ve made a lot of progress on both and we’re prepared to be, I think, ready quite soon. I would not be surprised at all if we hit ASL-3 next year. There was some concern that we might even hit it this year. That’s still possible. That could still happen. It’s very hard to say, but I would be very, very surprised if it was 2030. I think it’s much sooner than that.
Lex Fridman
So there’s protocols for detecting it, the if-then and then there’s protocols for how to respond to it.
So there’s protocols for detecting it, the if-then and then there’s protocols for how to respond to it.
Dario Amodei
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
How difficult is the second, the latter?
How difficult is the second, the latter?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. I think for ASL-3, it’s primarily about security and about filters on the model relating to a very narrow set of areas when we deploy the model. Because at ASL-3, the model isn’t autonomous yet. And so you don’t have to worry about the model itself behaving in a bad way even when it’s deployed internally. So I think the ASL- 3 measures are, I won’t say straightforward, they’re rigorous, but they’re easier to reason about.
Yeah. I think for ASL-3, it’s primarily about security and about filters on the model relating to a very narrow set of areas when we deploy the model. Because at ASL-3, the model isn’t autonomous yet. And so you don’t have to worry about the model itself behaving in a bad way even when it’s deployed internally. So I think the ASL- 3 measures are, I won’t say straightforward, they’re rigorous, but they’re easier to reason about.
I think once we get to ASL-4, we start to have worries about the models being smart enough that they might sandbag tests, they might not tell the truth about tests. We had some results came out about sleeper agents and there was a more recent paper about, “Can the models mislead attempts to sandbag their own abilities, present themselves as being less capable than they are?” And so I think with ASL-4, there’s going to be an important component of using other things than just interacting with the models.
For example, interpretability or hidden chains of thought where you have to look inside the model and verify via some other mechanism that is not as easily corrupted as what the model says, that the model indeed has some property. So we’re still working on ASL-4. One of the properties of the RSP is that we don’t specify ASL-4 until we’ve hit ASL-3. And I think that’s proven to be a wise decision because even with ASL-3, again, it’s hard to know this stuff in detail, and we want to take as much time as we can possibly take to get these things right.
Lex Fridman
So for ASL-3, the bad actor will be the humans.
So for ASL-3, the bad actor will be the humans.
Dario Amodei
Humans, yes.
Humans, yes.
Lex Fridman
And so there’s a little bit more…
And so there’s a little bit more…
Dario Amodei
For ASL- 4, it’s both, I think.
For ASL- 4, it’s both, I think.
Lex Fridman
It’s both. And so deception, and that’s where mechanistic interpretability comes into play, and hopefully the techniques used for that are not made accessible to the model.
It’s both. And so deception, and that’s where mechanistic interpretability comes into play, and hopefully the techniques used for that are not made accessible to the model.
Dario Amodei
Yeah. Of course, you can hook up the mechanistic interpretability to the model itself, but then you’ve lost it as a reliable indicator of the model state. There are a bunch of exotic ways you can think of that it might also not be reliable, like if the model gets smart enough that it can jump computers and read the code where you’re looking at its internal state. We’ve thought about some of those. I think they’re exotic enough. There are ways to render them unlikely. But yeah, generally, you want to preserve mechanistic interpretability as a verification set or test set that’s separate from the training process of the model.
Yeah. Of course, you can hook up the mechanistic interpretability to the model itself, but then you’ve lost it as a reliable indicator of the model state. There are a bunch of exotic ways you can think of that it might also not be reliable, like if the model gets smart enough that it can jump computers and read the code where you’re looking at its internal state. We’ve thought about some of those. I think they’re exotic enough. There are ways to render them unlikely. But yeah, generally, you want to preserve mechanistic interpretability as a verification set or test set that’s separate from the training process of the model.
Lex Fridman
See, I think as these models become better and better conversation and become smarter, social engineer becomes a threat too because they could start being very convincing to the engineers inside companies.
See, I think as these models become better and better conversation and become smarter, social engineer becomes a threat too because they could start being very convincing to the engineers inside companies.
Dario Amodei
Oh, yeah. Yeah. We’ve seen lots of examples of demagoguery in our life from humans, and there’s a concern that models could do that as well.
Oh, yeah. Yeah. We’ve seen lots of examples of demagoguery in our life from humans, and there’s a concern that models could do that as well.
Computer use
Lex Fridman
One of the ways that Claude has been getting more and more powerful is it’s now able to do some agentic stuff, computer use. There’s also an analysis within the sandbox of Claude.ai itself. But let’s talk about computer use. That seems to me super exciting that you can just give Claude a task and it takes a bunch of actions, figures it out, and has access to the…
One of the ways that Claude has been getting more and more powerful is it’s now able to do some agentic stuff, computer use. There’s also an analysis within the sandbox of Claude.ai itself. But let’s talk about computer use. That seems to me super exciting that you can just give Claude a task and it takes a bunch of actions, figures it out, and has access to the…
Lex Fridman
… a bunch of actions, figures it out and has access to your computer through screenshots. So can you explain how that works and where that’s headed?
… a bunch of actions, figures it out and has access to your computer through screenshots. So can you explain how that works and where that’s headed?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. It’s actually relatively simple. So Claude has had for a long time, since Claude 3 back in March, the ability to analyze images and respond to them with text. The only new thing we added is those images can be screenshots of a computer and in response, we train the model to give a location on the screen where you can click and/or buttons on the keyboard, you can press in order to take action. And it turns out that with actually not all that much additional training, the models can get quite good at that task. It’s a good example of generalization. People sometimes say if you get to lower earth orbit, you’re halfway to anywhere because of how much it takes to escape the gravity well. If you have a strong pre-trained model, I feel like you’re halfway to anywhere in terms of the intelligence space. And so actually, it didn’t take all that much to get Claude to do this. And you can just set that in a loop, give the model a screenshot, tell it what to click on, give it the next screenshot, tell it what to click on and that turns into a full kind of almost 3D video interaction of the model and it’s able to do all of these tasks. We showed these demos where it’s able to fill out spreadsheets, it’s able to kind of interact with a website, it’s able to open all kinds of programs, different operating systems, Windows, Linux, Mac. So I think all of that is very exciting. I will say, while in theory there’s nothing you could do there that you couldn’t have done through just giving the model the API to drive the computer screen, this really lowers the barrier. And there’s a lot of folks who either aren’t in a position to interact with those APIs or it takes them a long time to do.
Yeah. It’s actually relatively simple. So Claude has had for a long time, since Claude 3 back in March, the ability to analyze images and respond to them with text. The only new thing we added is those images can be screenshots of a computer and in response, we train the model to give a location on the screen where you can click and/or buttons on the keyboard, you can press in order to take action. And it turns out that with actually not all that much additional training, the models can get quite good at that task. It’s a good example of generalization. People sometimes say if you get to lower earth orbit, you’re halfway to anywhere because of how much it takes to escape the gravity well. If you have a strong pre-trained model, I feel like you’re halfway to anywhere in terms of the intelligence space. And so actually, it didn’t take all that much to get Claude to do this. And you can just set that in a loop, give the model a screenshot, tell it what to click on, give it the next screenshot, tell it what to click on and that turns into a full kind of almost 3D video interaction of the model and it’s able to do all of these tasks. We showed these demos where it’s able to fill out spreadsheets, it’s able to kind of interact with a website, it’s able to open all kinds of programs, different operating systems, Windows, Linux, Mac. So I think all of that is very exciting. I will say, while in theory there’s nothing you could do there that you couldn’t have done through just giving the model the API to drive the computer screen, this really lowers the barrier. And there’s a lot of folks who either aren’t in a position to interact with those APIs or it takes them a long time to do.
It’s just the screen is just a universal interface that’s a lot easier to interact with. And so I expect over time, this is going to lower a bunch of barriers. Now, honestly, the current model has, it leaves a lot still to be desired and we were honest about that in the blog. It makes mistakes, it misclicks. We were careful to warn people, “Hey, you can’t just leave this thing to run on your computer for minutes and minutes. You got to give this thing boundaries and guardrails.” And I think that’s one of the reasons we released it first in an API form rather than just hand the consumer and give it control of their computer. But I definitely feel that it’s important to get these capabilities out there. As models get more powerful, we’re going to have to grapple with how do we use these capabilities safely. How do we prevent them from being abused?
And I think releasing the model while the capabilities are still limited is very helpful in terms of doing that. I think since it’s been released, a number of customers, I think Replit was maybe one of the most quickest to deploy things, have made use of it in various ways. People have hooked up demos for Windows desktops, Macs, Linux machines. So yeah, it’s been very exciting. I think as with anything else, it comes with new exciting abilities and then with those new exciting abilities, we have to think about how to make the model safe, reliable, do what humans want them to do. It’s the same story for everything. Same thing. It’s that same tension.
Lex Fridman
But the possibility of use cases here, just the range is incredible. So how much to make it work really well in the future? How much do you have to specially kind of go beyond what the pre-trained model is doing, do more post-training, RLHF or supervised fine-tuning or synthetic data just for the agentive stuff?
But the possibility of use cases here, just the range is incredible. So how much to make it work really well in the future? How much do you have to specially kind of go beyond what the pre-trained model is doing, do more post-training, RLHF or supervised fine-tuning or synthetic data just for the agentive stuff?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. I think speaking at a high level, it’s our intention to keep investing a lot in making the model better. I think we look at some of the benchmarks where previous models were like, “Oh, could do it 6% of the time,” and now our model would do it 14 or 22% of the time. And yeah, we want to get up to the human level reliability of 80, 90% just like anywhere else. We’re on the same curve that we were on with SWE-bench where I think I would guess a year from now, the models can do this very, very reliably. But you got to start somewhere.
Yeah. I think speaking at a high level, it’s our intention to keep investing a lot in making the model better. I think we look at some of the benchmarks where previous models were like, “Oh, could do it 6% of the time,” and now our model would do it 14 or 22% of the time. And yeah, we want to get up to the human level reliability of 80, 90% just like anywhere else. We’re on the same curve that we were on with SWE-bench where I think I would guess a year from now, the models can do this very, very reliably. But you got to start somewhere.
Lex Fridman
So you think it’s possible to get to the human level 90% basically doing the same thing you’re doing now or it has to be special for computer use?
So you think it’s possible to get to the human level 90% basically doing the same thing you’re doing now or it has to be special for computer use?
Dario Amodei
It depends what you mean by special and special in general, but I generally think the same kinds of techniques that we’ve been using to train the current model, I expect that doubling down on those techniques in the same way that we have for code, for models in general, for image input, for voice, I expect those same techniques will scale here as they have everywhere else,
It depends what you mean by special and special in general, but I generally think the same kinds of techniques that we’ve been using to train the current model, I expect that doubling down on those techniques in the same way that we have for code, for models in general, for image input, for voice, I expect those same techniques will scale here as they have everywhere else,
Lex Fridman
But this is giving the power of action to Claude and so you could do a lot of really powerful things, but you could do a lot of damage also.
But this is giving the power of action to Claude and so you could do a lot of really powerful things, but you could do a lot of damage also.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah. No and we’ve been very aware of that. Look, my view actually is computer use isn’t a fundamentally new capability like the CBRN or autonomy capabilities are. It’s more like it kind of opens the aperture for the model to use and apply its existing abilities. And so the way we think about it, going back to our RSP, is nothing that this model is doing inherently increases the risk from an RSP perspective, but as the models get more powerful, having this capability may make it scarier once it has the cognitive capability to do something at the ASL-3 and ASL-4 level, this may be the thing that kind of unbounds it from doing so. So going forward, certainly this modality of interaction is something we have tested for and that we will continue to test for an RSP going forward. I think it’s probably better to learn and explore this capability before the model is super capable
Yeah, yeah. No and we’ve been very aware of that. Look, my view actually is computer use isn’t a fundamentally new capability like the CBRN or autonomy capabilities are. It’s more like it kind of opens the aperture for the model to use and apply its existing abilities. And so the way we think about it, going back to our RSP, is nothing that this model is doing inherently increases the risk from an RSP perspective, but as the models get more powerful, having this capability may make it scarier once it has the cognitive capability to do something at the ASL-3 and ASL-4 level, this may be the thing that kind of unbounds it from doing so. So going forward, certainly this modality of interaction is something we have tested for and that we will continue to test for an RSP going forward. I think it’s probably better to learn and explore this capability before the model is super capable
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And there’s a lot of interesting attacks like prompt injection because now you’ve widened the aperture so you can prompt inject through stuff on screen. So if this becomes more and more useful, then there’s more and more benefit to inject stuff into the model. If it goes to certain web page, it could be harmless stuff like advertisements or it could be harmful stuff, right?
Yeah. And there’s a lot of interesting attacks like prompt injection because now you’ve widened the aperture so you can prompt inject through stuff on screen. So if this becomes more and more useful, then there’s more and more benefit to inject stuff into the model. If it goes to certain web page, it could be harmless stuff like advertisements or it could be harmful stuff, right?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, we’ve thought a lot about things like spam, CAPTCHA, mass… One secret, I’ll tell you, if you’ve invented a new technology, not necessarily the biggest misuse, but the first misuse you’ll see, scams, just petty scams.
Yeah, we’ve thought a lot about things like spam, CAPTCHA, mass… One secret, I’ll tell you, if you’ve invented a new technology, not necessarily the biggest misuse, but the first misuse you’ll see, scams, just petty scams.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Dario Amodei
It’s like a thing as old, people scamming each other, it’s this thing as old as time. And it’s just every time, you got to deal with it.
It’s like a thing as old, people scamming each other, it’s this thing as old as time. And it’s just every time, you got to deal with it.
Lex Fridman
It’s almost silly to say, but it’s true, sort of bots and spam in general is a thing as it gets more and more intelligent-
It’s almost silly to say, but it’s true, sort of bots and spam in general is a thing as it gets more and more intelligent-
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
… it’s harder and harder to fight it.
… it’s harder and harder to fight it.
Dario Amodei
Like I said, there are a lot of petty criminals in the world and it’s like every new technology is a new way for petty criminals to do something stupid and malicious.
Like I said, there are a lot of petty criminals in the world and it’s like every new technology is a new way for petty criminals to do something stupid and malicious.
Lex Fridman
Is there any ideas about sandboxing it? How difficult is the sandboxing task?
Is there any ideas about sandboxing it? How difficult is the sandboxing task?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, we sandbox during training. So for example, during training we didn’t expose the model to the internet. I think that’s probably a bad idea during training because the model can be changing its policy, it can be changing what it’s doing and it’s having an effect in the real world. In terms of actually deploying the model, it kind of depends on the application. Sometimes you want the model to do something in the real world. But of course, you can always put guard, you can always put guard rails on the outside. You can say, “Okay, well, this model’s not going to move data from my, the model’s not going to move any files from my computer or my web server to anywhere else.”
Yeah, we sandbox during training. So for example, during training we didn’t expose the model to the internet. I think that’s probably a bad idea during training because the model can be changing its policy, it can be changing what it’s doing and it’s having an effect in the real world. In terms of actually deploying the model, it kind of depends on the application. Sometimes you want the model to do something in the real world. But of course, you can always put guard, you can always put guard rails on the outside. You can say, “Okay, well, this model’s not going to move data from my, the model’s not going to move any files from my computer or my web server to anywhere else.”
Now, when you talk about sandboxing, again, when we get to ASL-4, none of these precautions are going to make sense there. When you talk about ASL-4, you’re then, the model is being, there’s theoretical worry the model could be smart enough to kind of break it to out of any box. And so there, we need to think about mechanistic interpretability. If we’re going to have a sandbox, it would need to be a mathematically provable. That’s a whole different world than what we’re dealing with with the models today.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the science of building a box from which ASL-4 AI system cannot escape.
Yeah, the science of building a box from which ASL-4 AI system cannot escape.
Dario Amodei
I think it’s probably not the right approach. I think the right approach, instead of having something unaligned that you’re trying to prevent it from escaping, I think it’s better to just design the model the right way or have a loop where you look inside the model and you’re able to verify properties and that gives you an opportunity to tell, iterate and actually get it right. I think containing bad models is a much worse solution than having good models.
I think it’s probably not the right approach. I think the right approach, instead of having something unaligned that you’re trying to prevent it from escaping, I think it’s better to just design the model the right way or have a loop where you look inside the model and you’re able to verify properties and that gives you an opportunity to tell, iterate and actually get it right. I think containing bad models is a much worse solution than having good models.
Government regulation of AI
Lex Fridman
Let me ask about regulation. What’s the role of regulation in keeping AI safe? So for example, can you describe California AI regulation bill SB 1047 that was ultimately vetoed by the governor? What are the pros and cons of this bill in general?
Let me ask about regulation. What’s the role of regulation in keeping AI safe? So for example, can you describe California AI regulation bill SB 1047 that was ultimately vetoed by the governor? What are the pros and cons of this bill in general?
Dario Amodei
Yes, we ended up making some suggestions to the bill. And then some of those were adopted and we felt, I think, quite positively about the bill by the end of that, it did still have some downsides. And of course, it got vetoed. I think at a high level, I think some of the key ideas behind the bill are I would say similar to ideas behind our RSPs. And I think it’s very important that some jurisdiction, whether it’s California or the federal government and/or other countries and other states, passes some regulation like this. And I can talk through why I think that’s so important. So I feel good about our RSP. It’s not perfect. It needs to be iterated on a lot. But it’s been a good forcing function for getting the company to take these risks seriously, to put them into product planning, to really make them a central part of work at Anthropic and to make sure that all of a thousand people, and it’s almost a thousand people now at Anthropic, understand that this is one of the highest priorities of the company, if not the highest priority.
Yes, we ended up making some suggestions to the bill. And then some of those were adopted and we felt, I think, quite positively about the bill by the end of that, it did still have some downsides. And of course, it got vetoed. I think at a high level, I think some of the key ideas behind the bill are I would say similar to ideas behind our RSPs. And I think it’s very important that some jurisdiction, whether it’s California or the federal government and/or other countries and other states, passes some regulation like this. And I can talk through why I think that’s so important. So I feel good about our RSP. It’s not perfect. It needs to be iterated on a lot. But it’s been a good forcing function for getting the company to take these risks seriously, to put them into product planning, to really make them a central part of work at Anthropic and to make sure that all of a thousand people, and it’s almost a thousand people now at Anthropic, understand that this is one of the highest priorities of the company, if not the highest priority.
But one, there are still some companies that don’t have RSP like mechanisms, like OpenAI, Google did adopt these mechanisms a couple months after Anthropic did, but there are other companies out there that don’t have these mechanisms at all. And so if some companies adopt these mechanisms and others don’t, it’s really going to create a situation where some of these dangers have the property that it doesn’t matter if three out of five of the companies are being safe, if the other two are being unsafe, it creates this negative externality. And I think the lack of uniformity is not fair to those of us who have put a lot of effort into being very thoughtful about these procedures. The second thing is I don’t think you can trust these companies to adhere to these voluntary plans on their own. Right? I like to think that Anthropic will, we do everything we can that we will, our RSP is checked by our long-term benefit trust, so we do everything we can to adhere to our own RSP.
But you hear lots of things about various companies saying, “Oh, they said they would give this much compute and they didn’t. They said they would do this thing and the didn’t.” I don’t think it makes sense to litigate particular things that companies have done, but I think this broad principle that if there’s nothing watching over them, if there’s nothing watching over us as an industry, there’s no guarantee that we’ll do the right thing and the stakes are very high. And so I think it’s important to have a uniform standard that everyone follows and to make sure that simply that the industry does what a majority of the industry has already said is important and has already said that they definitely will do.
Right, some people, I think there’s a class of people who are against regulation on principle. I understand where that comes from. If you go to Europe and you see something like GDPR, you see some of the other stuff that they’ve done. Some of it’s good, but some of it is really unnecessarily burdensome and I think it’s fair to say really has slowed innovation. And so I understand where people are coming from on priors. I understand why people start from that position. But again, I think AI is different. If we go to the very serious risks of autonomy and misuse that I talked about just a few minutes ago, I think that those are unusual and they warrant an unusually strong response. And so I think it’s very important.
Again, we need something that everyone can get behind. I think one of the issues with SB 1047, especially the original version of it was it had a bunch of the structure of RSPs, but it also had a bunch of stuff that was either clunky or that just would’ve created a bunch of burdens, a bunch of hassle and might even have missed the target in terms of addressing the risks. You don’t really hear about it on Twitter, you just hear about kind of people are cheering for any regulation. And then the folks who are against make up these often quite intellectually dishonest arguments about how it’ll make us move away from California, bill doesn’t apply if you’re headquartered in California, bill only applies if you do business in California, or that it would damage the open source ecosystem or that it would cause all of these things.
I think those were mostly nonsense, but there are better arguments against regulation. There’s one guy, Dean Ball, who’s really, I think, a very scholarly analyst who looks at what happens when a regulation is put in place in ways that they can kind of get a life of their own or how they can be poorly designed. And so our interest has always been we do think there should be regulation in this space, but we want to be an actor who makes sure that that regulation is something that’s surgical, that’s targeted at the serious risks and is something people can actually comply with. Because something I think the advocates of regulation don’t understand as well as they could is if we get something in place that’s poorly targeted, that wastes a bunch of people’s time, what’s going to happen is people are going to say, “See, these safety risks, this is nonsense. I just had to hire 10 lawyers to fill out all these forms. I had to run all these tests for something that was clearly not dangerous.”
And after six months of that, there will be a ground swell and we’ll end up with a durable consensus against regulation. And so I think the worst enemy of those who want real accountability is badly designed regulation. We need to actually get it right. And if there’s one thing I could say to the advocates, it would be that I want them to understand this dynamic better and we need to be really careful and we need to talk to people who actually have experience seeing how regulations play out in practice. And the people who have seen that, understand to be very careful. If this was some lesser issue, I might be against regulation at all.
But what I want the opponents to understand is that the underlying issues are actually serious. They’re not something that I or the other companies are just making up because of regulatory capture, they’re not sci-fi fantasies, they’re not any of these things. Every time we have a new model, every few months we measure the behavior of these models and they’re getting better and better at these concerning tasks just as they are getting better and better at good, valuable, economically useful tasks. And so I would just love it if some of the former, I think SB 1047 was very polarizing, I would love it if some of the most reasonable opponents and some of the most reasonable proponents would sit down together. And I think that the different AI companies, Anthropic was the only AI company that felt positively in a very detailed way. I think Elon tweeted briefly something positive, but some of the big ones like Google, OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft were pretty staunchly against.
So I would really is if some of the key stakeholders, some of the most thoughtful proponents and some of the most thoughtful opponents would sit down and say how do we solve this problem in a way that the proponents feel brings a real reduction in risk and that the opponents feel that it is not hampering the industry or hampering innovation any more necessary than it needs to. I think for whatever reason, that things got too polarized and those two groups didn’t get to sit down in the way that they should. And I feel urgency. I really think we need to do something in 2025. If we get to the end of 2025 and we’ve still done nothing about this, then I’m going to be worried. I’m not worried yet because, again, the risks aren’t here yet, but I think time is running short.
Lex Fridman
And come up with something surgical, like you said.
And come up with something surgical, like you said.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. And we need to get away from this intense pro safety versus intense anti-regulatory rhetoric. It’s turned into these flame wars on Twitter and nothing good’s going to come of that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. And we need to get away from this intense pro safety versus intense anti-regulatory rhetoric. It’s turned into these flame wars on Twitter and nothing good’s going to come of that.
Lex Fridman
So there’s a lot of curiosity about the different players in the game. One of the OGs is OpenAI. You’ve had several years of experience at OpenAI. What’s your story and history there?
So there’s a lot of curiosity about the different players in the game. One of the OGs is OpenAI. You’ve had several years of experience at OpenAI. What’s your story and history there?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. So I was at OpenAI for roughly five years. For the last, I think it was couple years, I was vice president of research there. Probably myself and Ilya Sutskever were the ones who really kind of set the research direction. Around 2016 or 2017, I first started to really believe in or at least confirm my belief in the scaling hypothesis when Ilya famously said to me, “The thing you need to understand about these models is they just want to learn. The models just want to learn.” And again, sometimes there are these one sentences, these then cones, that you hear them and you’re like, “Ah, that explains everything. That explains a thousand things that I’ve seen.” And then ever after, I had this visualization in my head of you optimize the models in the right way, you point the models in the right way, they just want to learn. They just want to solve the problem regardless of what the problem is.
Yeah. So I was at OpenAI for roughly five years. For the last, I think it was couple years, I was vice president of research there. Probably myself and Ilya Sutskever were the ones who really kind of set the research direction. Around 2016 or 2017, I first started to really believe in or at least confirm my belief in the scaling hypothesis when Ilya famously said to me, “The thing you need to understand about these models is they just want to learn. The models just want to learn.” And again, sometimes there are these one sentences, these then cones, that you hear them and you’re like, “Ah, that explains everything. That explains a thousand things that I’ve seen.” And then ever after, I had this visualization in my head of you optimize the models in the right way, you point the models in the right way, they just want to learn. They just want to solve the problem regardless of what the problem is.
Lex Fridman
So get out of their way, basically?
So get out of their way, basically?
Dario Amodei
Get out of their way. Yeah.
Get out of their way. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Dario Amodei
Don’t impose your own ideas about how they should learn. And this was the same thing as Rich Sutton put out in the bitter lesson or Gwern put out in the scaling hypothesis. I think generally the dynamic was I got this kind of inspiration from Ilya and from others, folks like Alec Radford, who did the original GPT-1 and then ran really hard with it, me and my collaborators, on GPT-2, GPT-3, RL from Human Feedback, which was an attempt to kind of deal with the early safety and durability, things like debate and amplification, heavy on interpretability. So again, the combination of safety plus scaling. Probably 2018, 2019, 2020, those were kind of the years when myself and my collaborators, probably many of whom became co-founders of Anthropic, kind of really had a vision and drove the direction.
Don’t impose your own ideas about how they should learn. And this was the same thing as Rich Sutton put out in the bitter lesson or Gwern put out in the scaling hypothesis. I think generally the dynamic was I got this kind of inspiration from Ilya and from others, folks like Alec Radford, who did the original GPT-1 and then ran really hard with it, me and my collaborators, on GPT-2, GPT-3, RL from Human Feedback, which was an attempt to kind of deal with the early safety and durability, things like debate and amplification, heavy on interpretability. So again, the combination of safety plus scaling. Probably 2018, 2019, 2020, those were kind of the years when myself and my collaborators, probably many of whom became co-founders of Anthropic, kind of really had a vision and drove the direction.
Lex Fridman
Why’d you leave? Why’d you decide to leave?
Why’d you leave? Why’d you decide to leave?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, so look, I’m going to put things this way and I think it ties to the race to the top, which is in my time at OpenAI, what I come to see as I’d come to appreciate the scaling hypothesis and as I’d come to appreciate kind of the importance of safety along with the scaling hypothesis. The first one I think OpenAI was getting on board with. The second one in a way had always been part of OpenAI’s messaging. But over many years of the time that I spent there, I think I had a particular vision of how we should handle these things, how we should be brought out in the world, the kind of principles that the organization should have. And look, there were many, many discussions about should the company do this, should the company do that? There’s a bunch of misinformation out there.
Yeah, so look, I’m going to put things this way and I think it ties to the race to the top, which is in my time at OpenAI, what I come to see as I’d come to appreciate the scaling hypothesis and as I’d come to appreciate kind of the importance of safety along with the scaling hypothesis. The first one I think OpenAI was getting on board with. The second one in a way had always been part of OpenAI’s messaging. But over many years of the time that I spent there, I think I had a particular vision of how we should handle these things, how we should be brought out in the world, the kind of principles that the organization should have. And look, there were many, many discussions about should the company do this, should the company do that? There’s a bunch of misinformation out there.
People say we left because we didn’t like the deal with Microsoft. False. Although, it was like a lot of discussion, a lot of questions about exactly how we do the deal with Microsoft. We left because we didn’t like commercialization. That’s not true. We built GPD-3, which was the model that was commercialized. I was involved in commercialization. It’s more, again, about how do you do it? Civilization is going down this path to very powerful AI. What’s the way to do it? That is cautious, straightforward, honest, that builds trust in the organization and in individuals. How do we get from here to there and how do we have a real vision for how to get it right? How can safety not just be something we say because it helps with recruiting. And I think at the end of the day, if you have a vision for that, forget about anyone else’s vision.
I don’t want to talk about anyone else’s vision. If you have a vision for how to do it, you should go off and you should do that vision. It is incredibly unproductive to try and argue with someone else’s vision. You might think they’re not doing it the right way. You might think they’re dishonest. Who knows? Maybe you’re right, maybe you’re not. But what you should do is you should take some people you trust and you should go off together and you should make your vision happen. And if your vision is compelling, if you can make it appeal to people, some combination of ethically in the market, if you can make a company that’s a place people want to join, that engages in practices that people think are reasonable while managing to maintain its position in the ecosystem at the same time, if you do that, people will copy it.
And the fact that you are doing it, especially the fact that you’re doing it better than they are, causes them to change their behavior in a much more compelling way than if they’re your boss and you’re arguing with them. I don’t know how to be any more specific about it than that, but I think it’s generally very unproductive to try and get someone else’s vision to look like your vision. It’s much more productive to go off and do a clean experiment and say, “This is our vision, this is how we’re going to do things. Your choice is you can ignore us, you can reject what we’re doing or you can start to become more like us.” And imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. And that plays out in the behavior of customers, that plays out in the behavior of the public, that plays out in the behavior of where people choose to work. And again, at the end, it’s not about one company winning or another company winning.
If we or another company are engaging in some practice that people find genuinely appealing, and I want it to be in substance, not just an appearance and I think researchers are sophisticated and they look at substance, and then other companies start copying that practice and they win because they copied that practice. That’s great. That’s success. That’s like the race to the top. It doesn’t matter who wins in the end as long as everyone is copying everyone else’s good practices. One way I think of it is the thing we’re all afraid of is the race to the bottom and the race to the bottom doesn’t matter who wins because we all lose. In the most extreme world, we make this autonomous AI that the robots enslave us or whatever. That’s half joking, but that is the most extreme thing that could happen. Then it doesn’t matter which company was ahead. If instead you create a race to the top where people are competing to engage in good practices, then at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who ends up winning, it doesn’t even matter who started the race to the top.
The point isn’t to be virtuous, the point is to get the system into a better equilibrium than it was before. And individual companies can play some role in doing this. Individual companies can help to start it, can help to accelerate it. And frankly, I think individuals at other companies have done this as well. The individuals that when we put out an RSP react by pushing harder to get something similar done at other companies, sometimes other companies do something that’s we’re like, “Oh, it’s a good practice. We think that’s good. We should adopt it too.” The only difference is I think we try to be more forward leaning. We try and adopt more of these practices first and adopt them more quickly when others invent them. But I think this dynamic is what we should be pointing at and that I think it abstracts away the question of which company’s winning, who trusts who. I think all these questions of drama are profoundly uninteresting and the thing that matters is the ecosystem that we all operate in and how to make that ecosystem better because that constrains all the players.
Lex Fridman
And so Anthropic is this kind of clean experiment built on a foundation of what concretely AI safety should look like?
And so Anthropic is this kind of clean experiment built on a foundation of what concretely AI safety should look like?
Dario Amodei
Well, look, I’m sure we’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way. The perfect organization doesn’t exist. It has to deal with the imperfection of a thousand employees. It has to deal with the imperfection of our leaders, including me. It has to deal with the imperfection of the people we’ve put to oversee the imperfection of the leaders like the board and the long-term benefit trust. It’s all a set of imperfect people trying to aim imperfectly at some ideal that will never perfectly be achieved. That’s what you sign up for. That’s what it will always be.
Well, look, I’m sure we’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way. The perfect organization doesn’t exist. It has to deal with the imperfection of a thousand employees. It has to deal with the imperfection of our leaders, including me. It has to deal with the imperfection of the people we’ve put to oversee the imperfection of the leaders like the board and the long-term benefit trust. It’s all a set of imperfect people trying to aim imperfectly at some ideal that will never perfectly be achieved. That’s what you sign up for. That’s what it will always be.
But imperfect doesn’t mean you just give up. There’s better and there’s worse. And hopefully, we can do well enough that we can begin to build some practices that the whole industry engages in. And then my guess is that multiple of these companies will be successful. Anthropic will be successful. These other companies, like ones I’ve been at the past, will also be successful. And some will be more successful than others. That’s less important than, again, that we align the incentives of the industry. And that happens partly through the race to the top, partly through things like RSP, partly through, again, selected surgical regulation.
Hiring a great team
Lex Fridman
You said talent density beats talent mass, so can you explain that? Can you expand on that?
You said talent density beats talent mass, so can you explain that? Can you expand on that?
Dario Amodei
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Can you just talk about what it takes to build a great team of AI researchers and engineers?
Can you just talk about what it takes to build a great team of AI researchers and engineers?
Dario Amodei
This is one of these statements that’s more true every month. Every month I see this statement as more true than I did the month before. So if I were to do a thought experiment, let’s say you have a team of 100 people that are super smart, motivated and aligned with the mission and that’s your company. Or you can have a team of a thousand people where 200 people are super smart, super aligned with the mission and then 800 people are, let’s just say you pick 800 random big tech employees, which would you rather have? The talent mass is greater in the group of a thousand people. You have even a larger number of incredibly talented, incredibly aligned, incredibly smart people. But the issue is just that if every time someone super talented looks around, they see someone else super talented and super dedicated, that sets the tone for everything. That sets the tone for everyone is super inspired to work at the same place. Everyone trusts everyone else.
This is one of these statements that’s more true every month. Every month I see this statement as more true than I did the month before. So if I were to do a thought experiment, let’s say you have a team of 100 people that are super smart, motivated and aligned with the mission and that’s your company. Or you can have a team of a thousand people where 200 people are super smart, super aligned with the mission and then 800 people are, let’s just say you pick 800 random big tech employees, which would you rather have? The talent mass is greater in the group of a thousand people. You have even a larger number of incredibly talented, incredibly aligned, incredibly smart people. But the issue is just that if every time someone super talented looks around, they see someone else super talented and super dedicated, that sets the tone for everything. That sets the tone for everyone is super inspired to work at the same place. Everyone trusts everyone else.
If you have a thousand or 10,000 people and things have really regressed, you are not able to do selection and you’re choosing random people, what happens is then you need to put a lot of processes and a lot of guardrails in place just because people don’t fully trust each other or you have to adjudicate political battles. There are so many things that slow down the org’s ability to operate. And so we’re nearly a thousand people and we’ve tried to make it so that as large a fraction of those thousand people as possible are super talented, super skilled, it’s one of the reasons we’ve slowed down hiring a lot in the last few months. We grew from 300 to 800, I believe, I think in the first seven, eight months of the year and now we’ve slowed down. The last three months, we went from 800 to 900, 950, something like that. Don’t quote me on the exact numbers, but I think there’s an inflection point around a thousand and we want to be much more careful how we grow.
Early on and now as well, we’ve hired a lot of physicists. Theoretical physicists can learn things really fast. Even more recently, as we’ve continued to hire that, we’ve really had a high bar on both the research side and the software engineering side, have hired a lot of senior people, including folks who used to be at other companies in this space, and we’ve just continued to be very selective. It’s very easy to go from a hundred to a thousand, a thousand to 10,000 without paying attention to making sure everyone has a unified purpose. It’s so powerful. If your company consists of a lot of different fiefdoms that all want to do their own thing, they’re all optimizing for their own thing, it’s very hard to get anything done. But if everyone sees the broader purpose of the company, if there’s trust and there’s dedication to doing the right thing, that is a superpower. That in itself I think can overcome almost every other disadvantage.
Lex Fridman
And to Steve Jobs, A players. A players want to look around and see other A players is another way of saying that.
And to Steve Jobs, A players. A players want to look around and see other A players is another way of saying that.
Dario Amodei
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know what that is about human nature, but it is demotivating to see people who are not obsessively driving towards a singular mission. And it is on the flip side of that, super motivating to see that. It’s interesting. What’s it take to be a great AI researcher or engineer from everything you’ve seen from working with so many amazing people?
I don’t know what that is about human nature, but it is demotivating to see people who are not obsessively driving towards a singular mission. And it is on the flip side of that, super motivating to see that. It’s interesting. What’s it take to be a great AI researcher or engineer from everything you’ve seen from working with so many amazing people?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. I think the number one quality, especially on the research side, but really both, is open mindedness. Sounds easy to be open-minded, right? You’re just like, “Oh, I’m open to anything.” But if I think about my own early history in this scaling hypothesis, I was seeing the same data others were seeing. I don’t think I was a better programmer or better at coming up with research ideas than any of the hundreds of people that I worked with. In some ways, I was worse. I’ve never precise programming of finding the bug, writing the GPU kernels. I could point you to a hundred people here who are better at that than I am.
Yeah. I think the number one quality, especially on the research side, but really both, is open mindedness. Sounds easy to be open-minded, right? You’re just like, “Oh, I’m open to anything.” But if I think about my own early history in this scaling hypothesis, I was seeing the same data others were seeing. I don’t think I was a better programmer or better at coming up with research ideas than any of the hundreds of people that I worked with. In some ways, I was worse. I’ve never precise programming of finding the bug, writing the GPU kernels. I could point you to a hundred people here who are better at that than I am.
But the thing that I think I did have that was different was that I was just willing to look at something with new eyes. People said, “Oh, we don’t have the right algorithms yet. We haven’t come up with the right way to do things.” And I was just like, “Oh, I don’t know. This neural net has 30 million parameters. What if we gave it 50 million instead? Let’s plot some graphs.” That basic scientific mindset of like, “Oh man,” I see some variable that I could change. What happens when it changes? Let’s try these different things and create a graph. For even, this was the simplest thing in the world, change the number of, this wasn’t PhD level experimental design, this was simple and stupid. Anyone could have done this if you just told them that it was important. It’s also not hard to understand. You didn’t need to be brilliant to come up with this.
But you put the two things together and some tiny number of people, some single digit number of people have driven forward the whole field by realizing this. And it’s often like that. If you look back at the discoveries in history, they’re often like that. And so this open-mindedness and this willingness to see with new eyes that often comes from being newer to the field, often experience is a disadvantage for this, that is the most important thing. It’s very hard to look for and test for, but I think it’s the most important thing because when you find something, some really new way of thinking about things, when you have the initiative to do that, it’s absolutely transformative.
Lex Fridman
And also be able to do kind of rapid experimentation and, in the face of that, be open-minded and curious and looking at the data with these fresh eyes and seeing what is it that it’s actually saying. That applies in mechanistic interpretability.
And also be able to do kind of rapid experimentation and, in the face of that, be open-minded and curious and looking at the data with these fresh eyes and seeing what is it that it’s actually saying. That applies in mechanistic interpretability.
Dario Amodei
It’s another example of this. Some of the early work and mechanistic interpretability so simple, it’s just no one thought to care about this question before.
It’s another example of this. Some of the early work and mechanistic interpretability so simple, it’s just no one thought to care about this question before.
Lex Fridman
You said what it takes to be a great AI researcher. Can we rewind the clock back, what advice would you give to people interested in AI? They’re young, looking…
You said what it takes to be a great AI researcher. Can we rewind the clock back, what advice would you give to people interested in AI? They’re young, looking…
Lex Fridman
What advice would you give to people interested in AI? They’re young. Looking forward to how can I make an impact on the world?
What advice would you give to people interested in AI? They’re young. Looking forward to how can I make an impact on the world?
Dario Amodei
I think my number one piece of advice is to just start playing with the models. Actually, I worry a little, this seems like obvious advice now. I think three years ago it wasn’t obvious and people started by, “Oh, let me read the latest reinforcement learning paper.” And you should do that as well, but now with wider availability of models and APIs, people are doing this more. But, I think just experiential knowledge. These models are new artifacts that no one really understands and so getting experience playing with them. I would also say again, in line with the do something new, think in some new direction, there are all these things that haven’t been explored. For example, mechanistic interpretability is still very new. It’s probably better to work on that than it is to work on new model architectures, because it’s more popular than it was before. There are probably 100 people working on it, but there aren’t like 10,000 people working on it.
I think my number one piece of advice is to just start playing with the models. Actually, I worry a little, this seems like obvious advice now. I think three years ago it wasn’t obvious and people started by, “Oh, let me read the latest reinforcement learning paper.” And you should do that as well, but now with wider availability of models and APIs, people are doing this more. But, I think just experiential knowledge. These models are new artifacts that no one really understands and so getting experience playing with them. I would also say again, in line with the do something new, think in some new direction, there are all these things that haven’t been explored. For example, mechanistic interpretability is still very new. It’s probably better to work on that than it is to work on new model architectures, because it’s more popular than it was before. There are probably 100 people working on it, but there aren’t like 10,000 people working on it.
And it’s just this fertile area for study. There’s so much low-hanging fruit, you can just walk by and you can pick things. For whatever reason, people aren’t interested in it enough. I think there are some things around long horizon learning and long horizon tasks, where there’s a lot to be done. I think evaluations, we’re still very early in our ability to study evaluations, particularly for dynamic systems acting in the world. I think there’s some stuff around multi-agent. Skate where the puck is going is my advice, and you don’t have to be brilliant to think of it. All the things that are going to be exciting in five years, people even mention them as conventional wisdom, but it’s just somehow there’s this barrier that people don’t double down as much as they could, or they’re afraid to do something that’s not the popular thing. I don’t know why it happens, but getting over that barrier, that’s my number one piece of advice.
Post-training
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk if we could a bit about post-training. So it seems that the modern post-training recipe has a little bit of everything. So supervised fine-tuning, RLHF, the constitutional AI with RLAIF-
Let’s talk if we could a bit about post-training. So it seems that the modern post-training recipe has a little bit of everything. So supervised fine-tuning, RLHF, the constitutional AI with RLAIF-
Dario Amodei
Best acronym.
Best acronym.
Lex Fridman
It’s the, again, that naming thing. And then synthetic data. Seems like a lot of synthetic data, or at least trying to figure out ways to have high quality synthetic data. So if this is a secret sauce that makes Anthropic clause so incredible, how much of the magic is in the pre-training? How much of it is in the post-training?
It’s the, again, that naming thing. And then synthetic data. Seems like a lot of synthetic data, or at least trying to figure out ways to have high quality synthetic data. So if this is a secret sauce that makes Anthropic clause so incredible, how much of the magic is in the pre-training? How much of it is in the post-training?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. So first of all, we’re not perfectly able to measure that ourselves. When you see some great character ability, sometimes it’s hard to tell whether it came from pre-training or post-training. We developed ways to try and distinguish between those two, but they’re not perfect. The second thing I would say is, when there is an advantage and I think we’ve been pretty good in general at RL, perhaps the best, although I don’t know, I don’t see what goes on inside other companies. Usually it isn’t, “Oh my God, we have this secret magic method that others don’t have.” Usually it’s like, “Well, we got better at the infrastructure so we could run it for longer,” or, “We were able to get higher quality data,” or, “We were able to filter our data better, or “We were able to combine these methods and practice.”
Yeah. So first of all, we’re not perfectly able to measure that ourselves. When you see some great character ability, sometimes it’s hard to tell whether it came from pre-training or post-training. We developed ways to try and distinguish between those two, but they’re not perfect. The second thing I would say is, when there is an advantage and I think we’ve been pretty good in general at RL, perhaps the best, although I don’t know, I don’t see what goes on inside other companies. Usually it isn’t, “Oh my God, we have this secret magic method that others don’t have.” Usually it’s like, “Well, we got better at the infrastructure so we could run it for longer,” or, “We were able to get higher quality data,” or, “We were able to filter our data better, or “We were able to combine these methods and practice.”
It’s usually some boring matter of practice and trade craft. So when I think about how to do something special in terms of how we train these models both, but even more so I really think of it a little more, again, as designing airplanes or cars. It’s not just like, “Oh, man. I have the blueprint.” Maybe that makes you make the next airplane. But there’s some cultural trade craft of how we think about the design process that I think is more important than any particular gizmo we’re able to invent.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Well, let me ask you about specific techniques. So first on RLHF, what do you think, just zooming out intuition, almost philosophy … Why do you think RLHF works so well?
Okay. Well, let me ask you about specific techniques. So first on RLHF, what do you think, just zooming out intuition, almost philosophy … Why do you think RLHF works so well?
Dario Amodei
If I go back to the scaling hypothesis, one of the ways to skate the scaling hypothesis is, if you train for X and you throw enough compute at it, then you get X. And so RLHF is good at doing what humans want the model to do, or at least to state it more precisely doing what humans who look at the model for a brief period of time and consider different possible responses, what they prefer as the response, which is not perfect from both the safety and capabilities perspective, in that humans are often not able to perfectly identify what the model wants and what humans want in the moment may not be what they want in the long term.
If I go back to the scaling hypothesis, one of the ways to skate the scaling hypothesis is, if you train for X and you throw enough compute at it, then you get X. And so RLHF is good at doing what humans want the model to do, or at least to state it more precisely doing what humans who look at the model for a brief period of time and consider different possible responses, what they prefer as the response, which is not perfect from both the safety and capabilities perspective, in that humans are often not able to perfectly identify what the model wants and what humans want in the moment may not be what they want in the long term.
So there’s a lot of subtlety there, but the models are good at producing what the humans in some shallow sense want. And it actually turns out that you don’t even have to throw that much compute at it, because of another thing, which is this thing about a strong pre-trained model being halfway to anywhere. So once you have the pre-trained model, you have all the representations you need to get the model where you want it to go.
Lex Fridman
So do you think RLHF makes the model smarter, or just appear smarter to the humans?
So do you think RLHF makes the model smarter, or just appear smarter to the humans?
Dario Amodei
I don’t think it makes the model smarter. I don’t think it just makes the model appear smarter. It’s like RLHF bridges the gap between the human and the model. I could have something really smart that can’t communicate at all. We all know people like this, people who are really smart but can’t understand what they’re saying. So I think RLHF just bridges that gap. I think it’s not the only kind of RL we do. It’s not the only kind of RL that will happen in the future. I think RL has the potential to make models smarter, to make them reason better, to make them operate better, to make them develop new skills even. And perhaps that could be done even in some cases with human feedback. But, the kind of RLHF we do today mostly doesn’t do that yet, although we’re very quickly starting to be able to.
I don’t think it makes the model smarter. I don’t think it just makes the model appear smarter. It’s like RLHF bridges the gap between the human and the model. I could have something really smart that can’t communicate at all. We all know people like this, people who are really smart but can’t understand what they’re saying. So I think RLHF just bridges that gap. I think it’s not the only kind of RL we do. It’s not the only kind of RL that will happen in the future. I think RL has the potential to make models smarter, to make them reason better, to make them operate better, to make them develop new skills even. And perhaps that could be done even in some cases with human feedback. But, the kind of RLHF we do today mostly doesn’t do that yet, although we’re very quickly starting to be able to.
Lex Fridman
But if you look at the metric of helpfulness, it increases that?
But if you look at the metric of helpfulness, it increases that?
Dario Amodei
Yes. It also increases, what was this word in Leopold’s essay, “unhobbling,” where basically the models are hobbled and then you do various trainings to them to unhobble them. So I like that word, because it’s a rare word. So I think RLHF unhobbles the models in some ways. And then there are other ways where that model hasn’t yet been unhobbled and needs to unhobble.
Yes. It also increases, what was this word in Leopold’s essay, “unhobbling,” where basically the models are hobbled and then you do various trainings to them to unhobble them. So I like that word, because it’s a rare word. So I think RLHF unhobbles the models in some ways. And then there are other ways where that model hasn’t yet been unhobbled and needs to unhobble.
Lex Fridman
If you can say in terms of cost, is pre-training the most expensive thing? Or is post-training creep up to that?
If you can say in terms of cost, is pre-training the most expensive thing? Or is post-training creep up to that?
Dario Amodei
At the present moment, it is still the case that pre-training is the majority of the cost. I don’t know what to expect in the future, but I could certainly anticipate a future where post-training is the majority of the cost.
At the present moment, it is still the case that pre-training is the majority of the cost. I don’t know what to expect in the future, but I could certainly anticipate a future where post-training is the majority of the cost.
Lex Fridman
In that future you anticipate, would it be the humans or the AI that’s the costly thing for the post-training?
In that future you anticipate, would it be the humans or the AI that’s the costly thing for the post-training?
Dario Amodei
I don’t think you can scale up humans enough to get high quality. Any kind of method that relies on humans and uses a large amount of compute, it’s going to have to rely on some scaled supervision method, like debate or iterated amplification or something like that.
I don’t think you can scale up humans enough to get high quality. Any kind of method that relies on humans and uses a large amount of compute, it’s going to have to rely on some scaled supervision method, like debate or iterated amplification or something like that.
Constitutional AI
Lex Fridman
So on that super interesting set of ideas around constitutional AI, can you describe what it is as first detailed in December 2022 paper and beyond that. What is it?
So on that super interesting set of ideas around constitutional AI, can you describe what it is as first detailed in December 2022 paper and beyond that. What is it?
Dario Amodei
Yes. So this was from two years ago. The basic idea is, so we describe what RLHF is. You have a model and you just sample from it twice. It spits out two possible responses, and you’re like, “Human, which responses do you like better?” Or another variant of it is, “Rate this response on a scale of one to seven.” So that’s hard because you need to scale up human interaction and it’s very implicit. I don’t have a sense of what I want the model to do. I just have a sense of what this average of 1,000 humans wants the model to do. So two ideas. One is, could the AI system itself decide which response is better? Could you show the AI system these two responses and ask which response is better? And then second, well, what criterion should the AI use?
Yes. So this was from two years ago. The basic idea is, so we describe what RLHF is. You have a model and you just sample from it twice. It spits out two possible responses, and you’re like, “Human, which responses do you like better?” Or another variant of it is, “Rate this response on a scale of one to seven.” So that’s hard because you need to scale up human interaction and it’s very implicit. I don’t have a sense of what I want the model to do. I just have a sense of what this average of 1,000 humans wants the model to do. So two ideas. One is, could the AI system itself decide which response is better? Could you show the AI system these two responses and ask which response is better? And then second, well, what criterion should the AI use?
And so then there’s this idea, you have a single document, a constitution if you will, that says, these are the principles the model should be using to respond. And the AI system reads those reads principles as well as reading the environment and the response. And it says, “Well, how good did the AI model do?” It’s basically a form of self-play. You’re training the model against itself. And so the AI gives the response and then you feed that back into what’s called the preference model, which in turn feeds the model to make it better. So you have this triangle of the AI, the preference model, and the improvement of the AI itself.
Lex Fridman
And we should say that in the constitution, the set of principles are human interpretable. They’re-
And we should say that in the constitution, the set of principles are human interpretable. They’re-
Dario Amodei
Yeah. Yeah. It’s something both the human and the AI system can read. So it has this nice translatability or symmetry. In practice, we both use a model constitution and we use RLHF and we use some of these other methods. So it’s turned into one tool in a toolkit, that both reduces the need for RLHF and increases the value we get from using each data point of RLHF. It also interacts in interesting ways with future reasoning type RL methods. So it’s one tool in the toolkit, but I think it is a very important tool.
Yeah. Yeah. It’s something both the human and the AI system can read. So it has this nice translatability or symmetry. In practice, we both use a model constitution and we use RLHF and we use some of these other methods. So it’s turned into one tool in a toolkit, that both reduces the need for RLHF and increases the value we get from using each data point of RLHF. It also interacts in interesting ways with future reasoning type RL methods. So it’s one tool in the toolkit, but I think it is a very important tool.
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s a compelling one to us humans. Thinking about the founding fathers and the founding of the United States. The natural question is who and how do you think it gets to define the constitution, the set of principles in the constitution?
Well, it’s a compelling one to us humans. Thinking about the founding fathers and the founding of the United States. The natural question is who and how do you think it gets to define the constitution, the set of principles in the constitution?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. So I’ll give a practical answer and a more abstract answer. I think the practical answer is look in practice, models get used by all kinds of different customers. And so you can have this idea where the model can have specialized rules or principles. We fine tune versions of models implicitly. We’ve talked about doing it explicitly having special principles that people can build into the models. So from a practical perspective, the answer can be very different from different people. A customer service agent behaves very differently from a lawyer and obeys different principles.
Yeah. So I’ll give a practical answer and a more abstract answer. I think the practical answer is look in practice, models get used by all kinds of different customers. And so you can have this idea where the model can have specialized rules or principles. We fine tune versions of models implicitly. We’ve talked about doing it explicitly having special principles that people can build into the models. So from a practical perspective, the answer can be very different from different people. A customer service agent behaves very differently from a lawyer and obeys different principles.
But, I think at the base of it, there are specific principles that models have to obey. I think a lot of them are things that people would agree with. Everyone agrees that we don’t want models to present these CBRN risks. I think we can go a little further and agree with some basic principles of democracy and the rule of law. Beyond that, it gets very uncertain and there our goal is generally for the models to be more neutral, to not espouse a particular point of view and more just be wise agents or advisors that will help you think things through and will present possible considerations. But don’t express strong or specific opinions.
Lex Fridman
OpenAI released a model spec where it clearly, concretely defines some of the goals of the model and specific examples like AB, how the model should behave. Do you find that interesting? By the way I should mention, I believe the brilliant John Schulman was a part of that. He’s now at Anthropic. Do you think this is a useful direction? Might Anthropic release a model spec as well?
OpenAI released a model spec where it clearly, concretely defines some of the goals of the model and specific examples like AB, how the model should behave. Do you find that interesting? By the way I should mention, I believe the brilliant John Schulman was a part of that. He’s now at Anthropic. Do you think this is a useful direction? Might Anthropic release a model spec as well?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. So I think that’s a pretty useful direction. Again, it has a lot in common with constitutional AI. So again, another example of a race to the top. We have something that we think a better and more responsible way of doing things. It’s also a competitive advantage. Then others discover that it has advantages and then start to do that thing. We then no longer have the competitive advantage, but it’s good from the perspective that now everyone has adopted a positive practice that others were not adopting. And so our response to that is, “Well, looks like we need a new competitive advantage in order to keep driving this race upwards.” So that’s how I generally feel about that. I also think every implementation of these things is different. So there were some things in the model spec that were not in constitutional AI, and so we can always adopt those things or at least learn from them. So again, I think this is an example of the positive dynamic that I think we should all want the field to have.
Yeah. So I think that’s a pretty useful direction. Again, it has a lot in common with constitutional AI. So again, another example of a race to the top. We have something that we think a better and more responsible way of doing things. It’s also a competitive advantage. Then others discover that it has advantages and then start to do that thing. We then no longer have the competitive advantage, but it’s good from the perspective that now everyone has adopted a positive practice that others were not adopting. And so our response to that is, “Well, looks like we need a new competitive advantage in order to keep driving this race upwards.” So that’s how I generally feel about that. I also think every implementation of these things is different. So there were some things in the model spec that were not in constitutional AI, and so we can always adopt those things or at least learn from them. So again, I think this is an example of the positive dynamic that I think we should all want the field to have.
Machines of Loving Grace
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about the incredible essay Machines of Loving Grace. I recommend everybody read it. It’s a long one.
Let’s talk about the incredible essay Machines of Loving Grace. I recommend everybody read it. It’s a long one.
Dario Amodei
It is rather long.
It is rather long.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It’s really refreshing to read concrete ideas about what a positive future looks like. And you took a bold stance because it’s very possible that you might be wrong on the dates or the specific applications-
Yeah. It’s really refreshing to read concrete ideas about what a positive future looks like. And you took a bold stance because it’s very possible that you might be wrong on the dates or the specific applications-
Dario Amodei
Oh, yeah. I’m fully expecting to well, definitely be wrong about all the details. I might be just spectacularly wrong about the whole thing and people will laugh at me for years. That’s just how the future works.
Oh, yeah. I’m fully expecting to well, definitely be wrong about all the details. I might be just spectacularly wrong about the whole thing and people will laugh at me for years. That’s just how the future works.
Lex Fridman
So you provided a bunch of concrete positive impacts of AI and how exactly a super intelligent AI might accelerate the rate of breakthroughs in, for example, biology and chemistry, that would then lead to things like we cure most cancers, prevent all infectious disease, double the human lifespan and so on. So let’s talk about this essay first. Can you give a high-level vision of this essay? And what are the key takeaways that people have?
So you provided a bunch of concrete positive impacts of AI and how exactly a super intelligent AI might accelerate the rate of breakthroughs in, for example, biology and chemistry, that would then lead to things like we cure most cancers, prevent all infectious disease, double the human lifespan and so on. So let’s talk about this essay first. Can you give a high-level vision of this essay? And what are the key takeaways that people have?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. I have spent a lot of time, and in Anthropic has spent a lot of effort on how do we address the risks of AI? How do we think about those risks? We’re trying to do a race to the top, what that requires us to build all these capabilities and the capabilities are cool. But, a big part of what we’re trying to do is address the risks. And the justification for that is like, well, all these positive things, the market is this very healthy organism. It’s going to produce all the positive things. The risks? I don’t know, we might mitigate them, we might not. And so we can have more impact by trying to mitigate the risks.
Yeah. I have spent a lot of time, and in Anthropic has spent a lot of effort on how do we address the risks of AI? How do we think about those risks? We’re trying to do a race to the top, what that requires us to build all these capabilities and the capabilities are cool. But, a big part of what we’re trying to do is address the risks. And the justification for that is like, well, all these positive things, the market is this very healthy organism. It’s going to produce all the positive things. The risks? I don’t know, we might mitigate them, we might not. And so we can have more impact by trying to mitigate the risks.
But, I noticed that one flaw in that way of thinking, and it’s not a change in how seriously I take the risks. It’s maybe a change in how I talk about them, is that no matter how logical or rational, that line of reasoning that I just gave might be. If you only talk about risks, your brain only thinks about risks. And so, I think it’s actually very important to understand, what if things do go well? And the whole reason we’re trying to prevent these risks is not because we’re afraid of technology, not because we want to slow it down. It’s because if we can get to the other side of these risks, if we can run the gauntlet successfully, to put it in stark terms, then on the other side of the gauntlet are all these great things.
And these things are worth fighting for. And these things can really inspire people. And I think I imagine, because … Look, you have all these investors, all these VCs, all these AI companies talking about all the positive benefits of AI. But as you point out, it’s weird. There’s actually a dearth of really getting specific about it. There’s a lot of random people on Twitter posting these gleaming cities and this just vibe of grind, accelerate harder, kick out the … It’s just this very aggressive ideological. But then you’re like, “Well, what are you actually excited about?”
And so, I figured that I think it would be interesting and valuable for someone who’s actually coming from the risk side to try and really make a try at explaining what the benefits are, both because I think it’s something we can all get behind and I want people to understand. I want them to really understand that this isn’t Doomers versus Accelerationists. This is that, if you have a true understanding of where things are going with AI, and maybe that’s the more important axis, AI is moving fast versus AI is not moving fast, then you really appreciate the benefits and you really want humanity or civilization to seize those benefits. But, you also get very serious about anything that could derail them.
Lex Fridman
So I think the starting point is to talk about what this Powerful AI, which is the term you like to use, most of the world uses AGI, but you don’t like the term, because it’s basically has too much baggage, it’s become meaningless. It’s like we’re stuck with the terms whether we like them or not.
So I think the starting point is to talk about what this Powerful AI, which is the term you like to use, most of the world uses AGI, but you don’t like the term, because it’s basically has too much baggage, it’s become meaningless. It’s like we’re stuck with the terms whether we like them or not.
Dario Amodei
Maybe we’re stuck with the terms and my efforts to change them are futile.
Maybe we’re stuck with the terms and my efforts to change them are futile.
Lex Fridman
It’s admirable.
It’s admirable.
Dario Amodei
I’ll tell you what else I don’t … This is a pointless semantic point, but I keep talking about it-
I’ll tell you what else I don’t … This is a pointless semantic point, but I keep talking about it-
Lex Fridman
It’s back to naming again.
It’s back to naming again.
Dario Amodei
I’m just going to do it once more. I think it’s a little like, let’s say it was like 1995 and Moore’s law is making the computers faster. And for some reason there had been this verbal tick that everyone was like, “Well, someday we’re going to have supercomputers. And supercomputers are going to be able to do all these things that … Once we have supercomputers, we’ll be able to sequence the genome, we’ll be able to do other things.” And so. One, it’s true, the computers are getting faster and as they get faster, they’re going to be able to do all these great things. But there’s, there’s no discrete point at which you had a supercomputer and previous computers were no. “Supercomputer” is a term we use, but it’s a vague term to just describe computers that are faster than what we have today.
I’m just going to do it once more. I think it’s a little like, let’s say it was like 1995 and Moore’s law is making the computers faster. And for some reason there had been this verbal tick that everyone was like, “Well, someday we’re going to have supercomputers. And supercomputers are going to be able to do all these things that … Once we have supercomputers, we’ll be able to sequence the genome, we’ll be able to do other things.” And so. One, it’s true, the computers are getting faster and as they get faster, they’re going to be able to do all these great things. But there’s, there’s no discrete point at which you had a supercomputer and previous computers were no. “Supercomputer” is a term we use, but it’s a vague term to just describe computers that are faster than what we have today.
There’s no point at which you pass the threshold and you’re like, “Oh, my God! We’re doing a totally new type of computation and new … And so I feel that way about AGI. There’s just a smooth exponential. And if by AGI you mean AI is getting better and better, and gradually it’s going to do more and more of what humans do until it’s going to be smarter than humans, and then it’s going to get smarter even from there, then yes, I believe in AGI. But, if AGI is some discrete or separate thing, which is the way people often talk about it, then it’s a meaningless buzzword.
Lex Fridman
To me, it’s just a platonic form of a powerful AI, exactly how you define it. You define it very nicely, so on the intelligence axis, it’s just on pure intelligence, it’s smarter than a Nobel Prize winner as you describe across most relevant disciplines. So okay, that’s just intelligence. So it’s both in creativity and be able to generate new ideas, all that kind of stuff in every discipline, Nobel Prize winner in their prime. It can use every modality, so this is self-explanatory, but just operate across all the modalities of the world.
To me, it’s just a platonic form of a powerful AI, exactly how you define it. You define it very nicely, so on the intelligence axis, it’s just on pure intelligence, it’s smarter than a Nobel Prize winner as you describe across most relevant disciplines. So okay, that’s just intelligence. So it’s both in creativity and be able to generate new ideas, all that kind of stuff in every discipline, Nobel Prize winner in their prime. It can use every modality, so this is self-explanatory, but just operate across all the modalities of the world.
It can go off for many hours, days and weeks to do tasks and do its own detailed planning and only ask you help when it’s needed. This is actually interesting. I think in the essay you said … Again, it’s a bet that it’s not going to be embodied, but it can control embodied tools. So it can control tools, robots, laboratory equipment., the resource used to train it can then be repurposed to run millions of copies of it, and each of those copies would be independent that could do their own independent work. So you can do the cloning of the intelligence systems.
Dario Amodei
Yeah. Yeah. You might imagine from outside the field that there’s only one of these, right? You’ve only made one. But the truth is that the scale up is very quick. We do this today,. We make a model, and then we deploy thousands, maybe tens of thousands of instances of it. I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these. And they’ll be faster than humans. And so, if your picture is, “Oh, we’ll have one and it’ll take a while to make them,” my point there was, no. Actually you have millions of them right away.
Yeah. Yeah. You might imagine from outside the field that there’s only one of these, right? You’ve only made one. But the truth is that the scale up is very quick. We do this today,. We make a model, and then we deploy thousands, maybe tens of thousands of instances of it. I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these. And they’ll be faster than humans. And so, if your picture is, “Oh, we’ll have one and it’ll take a while to make them,” my point there was, no. Actually you have millions of them right away.
Lex Fridman
And in general they can learn and act 10 to 100 times faster than humans. So that’s a really nice definition of powerful AI. Okay, so that. But, you also write that, “Clearly such an entity would be capable of solving very difficult problems very fast, but it is not trivial to figure out how fast. Two “extreme” positions both seem false to me.” So the singularity is on the one extreme and the opposite and the other extreme. Can you describe each of the extremes?
And in general they can learn and act 10 to 100 times faster than humans. So that’s a really nice definition of powerful AI. Okay, so that. But, you also write that, “Clearly such an entity would be capable of solving very difficult problems very fast, but it is not trivial to figure out how fast. Two “extreme” positions both seem false to me.” So the singularity is on the one extreme and the opposite and the other extreme. Can you describe each of the extremes?
Dario Amodei
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So why?
So why?
Dario Amodei
So yeah. Let’s describe the extreme. So one extreme would be, “Well, look. If we look at evolutionary history like there was this big acceleration, where for hundreds of thousands of years we just had single-celled organisms, and then we had mammals, and then we had apes. And then that quickly turned to humans. Humans quickly built industrial civilization.” And so, this is going to keep speeding up and there’s no ceiling at the human level. Once models get much, much smarter than humans, they’ll get really good at building the next models. And if you write down a simple differential equation, like this is an exponential … And so what’s going to happen is that models will build faster models. Models will build faster models. And those models will build nanobots that can take over the world and produce much more energy than you could produce otherwise. And so, if you just kind of solve this abstract differential equation, then like five days after we build the first AI that’s more powerful than humans, then the world will be filled with these AIs in every possible technology that could be invented, like will be invented.
So yeah. Let’s describe the extreme. So one extreme would be, “Well, look. If we look at evolutionary history like there was this big acceleration, where for hundreds of thousands of years we just had single-celled organisms, and then we had mammals, and then we had apes. And then that quickly turned to humans. Humans quickly built industrial civilization.” And so, this is going to keep speeding up and there’s no ceiling at the human level. Once models get much, much smarter than humans, they’ll get really good at building the next models. And if you write down a simple differential equation, like this is an exponential … And so what’s going to happen is that models will build faster models. Models will build faster models. And those models will build nanobots that can take over the world and produce much more energy than you could produce otherwise. And so, if you just kind of solve this abstract differential equation, then like five days after we build the first AI that’s more powerful than humans, then the world will be filled with these AIs in every possible technology that could be invented, like will be invented.
I’m caricaturing this a little bit, but I think that’s one extreme. And the reason that I think that’s not the case is that, one, I think they just neglect the laws of physics. It’s only possible to do things so fast in the physical world. Some of those loops go through producing faster hardware. It takes a long time to produce faster hardware. Things take a long time. There’s this issue of complexity. I think no matter how smart you are, people talk about, “Oh, we can make models of biological systems that’ll do everything the biological systems … ” Look, I think computational modeling can do a lot. I did a lot of computational modeling when I worked in biology. But just there are a lot of things that you can’t predict how … They’re complex enough that just iterating, just running the experiment is going to beat any modeling, no matter how smart the system doing the modeling is.
Lex Fridman
Well, even if it’s not interacting with the physical world, just the modeling is going to be hard?
Well, even if it’s not interacting with the physical world, just the modeling is going to be hard?
Dario Amodei
Yeah. Well, the modeling is going to be hard and getting the model to match the physical world is going to be
Yeah. Well, the modeling is going to be hard and getting the model to match the physical world is going to be
Lex Fridman
All right. So it does have to interact with the physical world to verify.
All right. So it does have to interact with the physical world to verify.
Dario Amodei
But you just look at even the simplest problems. I think I talk about The Three-Body Problem or simple chaotic prediction, or predicting the economy. It’s really hard to predict the economy two years out. Maybe the case is humans can predict what’s going to happen in the economy next quarter, or they can’t really do that. Maybe a AI that’s a zillion times smarter can only predict it out a year or something, instead of … You have these exponential increase in computer intelligence for linear increase in ability to predict. Same with again, like biological molecules interacting. You don’t know what’s going to happen when you perturb a complex system. You can find simple parts in it, if you’re smarter, you’re better at finding these simple parts. And then I think human institutions, human institutions are really difficult. It’s been a hard to get people.
But you just look at even the simplest problems. I think I talk about The Three-Body Problem or simple chaotic prediction, or predicting the economy. It’s really hard to predict the economy two years out. Maybe the case is humans can predict what’s going to happen in the economy next quarter, or they can’t really do that. Maybe a AI that’s a zillion times smarter can only predict it out a year or something, instead of … You have these exponential increase in computer intelligence for linear increase in ability to predict. Same with again, like biological molecules interacting. You don’t know what’s going to happen when you perturb a complex system. You can find simple parts in it, if you’re smarter, you’re better at finding these simple parts. And then I think human institutions, human institutions are really difficult. It’s been a hard to get people.
I won’t give specific examples, but it’s been hard to get people to adopt even the technologies that we’ve developed, even ones where the case for their efficacy is very, very strong. People have concerns. They think things are conspiracy theories. It’s just been very difficult. It’s also been very difficult to get very simple things through the regulatory system. And I don’t want to disparage anyone who works in regulatory systems of any technology. There are hard they have to deal with. They have to save lives. But the system as a whole, I think makes some obvious trade-offs that are very far from maximizing human welfare. And so, if we bring AI systems into these human systems, often the level of intelligence may just not be the limiting factor. It just may be that it takes a long time to do something. Now, if the AI system circumvented all governments, if it just said, “I’m dictator of the world and I’m going to do whatever,” some of these things it could do.
Again, the things have to do with complexity. I still think a lot of things would take a while. I don’t think it helps that the AI systems can produce a lot of energy or go to the moon. Like some people in comments responded to the essay saying the AI system can produce a lot of energy and smarter AI systems. That’s missing the point. That kind of cycle doesn’t solve the key problems that I’m talking about here. So I think a bunch of people missed the point there. But even if it were completely unaligned and could get around all these human obstacles it would have trouble.
But again, if you want this to be an AI system that doesn’t take over the world, that doesn’t destroy humanity, then basically it’s going to need to follow basic human laws. If we want to have an actually good world, we’re going to have to have an AI system that interacts with humans, not one that creates its own legal system, or disregards all the laws or all of that. So as inefficient as these processes are, we’re going to have to deal with them, because there needs to be some popular and democratic legitimacy in how these systems are rolled out. We can’t have a small group of people who are developing these systems say, “This is what’s best for everyone.” I think it’s wrong, and I think in practice it’s not going to work anyway. So you put all those things together and we’re not going change the world and upload everyone in five minutes. A, I don’t think it’s going to happen and B, to the extent that it could happen.,It’s not the way to lead to a good world. So that’s on one side.
On the other side, there’s another set of perspectives, which I have actually in some ways more sympathy for, which is, look, we’ve seen big productivity increases before. Economists are familiar with studying the productivity increases that came from the computer revolution and internet revolution. And generally those productivity increases were underwhelming. They were less than you might imagine. There was a quote from Robert Solow, “You see the computer revolution everywhere except the productivity statistics.” So why is this the case? People point to the structure of firms, the structure of enterprises, how slow it’s been to roll out our existing technology to very poor parts of the world, which I talk about in the essay. How do we get these technologies to the poorest parts of the world that are behind on cell phone technology, computers, medicine, let alone newfangled AI that hasn’t been invented yet.
So you could have a perspective that’s like, “Well, this is amazing technically, but it’s all or nothing burger. I think Tyler Cowen who wrote something in response to my essay has that perspective. I think he thinks the radical change will happen eventually, but he thinks it’ll take 50 or 100 years. And you could have even more static perspectives on the whole thing. I think there’s some truth to it. I think the time scale is just too long and I can see it. I can actually see both sides with today’s AI. So a lot of our customers are large enterprises who are used to doing things a certain way. I’ve also seen it in talking to governments, right? Those are prototypical institutions, entities that are slow to change. But, the dynamic I see over and over again is yes, it takes a long time to move the ship. Yes. There’s a lot of resistance and lack of understanding.
But, the thing that makes me feel that progress will in the end happen moderately fast, not incredibly fast, but moderately fast, is that you talk to … What I find is I find over and over again, again in large companies, even in governments which have been actually surprisingly forward leaning, you find two things that move things forward. One, you find a small fraction of people within a company, within a government, who really see the big picture, who see the whole scaling hypothesis, who understand where AI is going, or at least understand where it’s going within their industry. And there are a few people like that within the current US government who really see the whole picture. And those people see that this is the most important thing in the world until they agitate for it. And the thing they alone are not enough to succeed, because there are a small set of people within a large organization.
But, as the technology starts to roll out, as it succeeds in some places in the folks who are most willing to adopt it, the specter of competition gives them a wind at their backs, because they can point within their large organization. They can say, “Look, these other guys are doing this.” One bank can say, “Look, this newfangled hedge fund is doing this thing. They’re going to eat our lunch.” In the US, we can say we’re afraid China’s going to get there before we are. And that combination, the specter of competition plus a few visionaries within these, the organizations that in many ways are sclerotic, you put those two things together and it actually makes something happen. It’s interesting. It’s a balanced fight between the two, because inertia is very powerful, but eventually over enough time, the innovative approach breaks through.
And I’ve seen that happen. I’ve seen the arc of that over and over again, and it’s like the barriers are there, the barriers to progress, the complexity, not knowing how to use the model, how to deploy them are there. And for a bit it seems like they’re going to last forever, change doesn’t happen. But, then eventually change happens and always comes from a few people. I felt the same way when I was an advocate of the scaling hypothesis within the AI field itself and others didn’t get it. It felt like no one would ever get it. Then it felt like we had a secret almost no one ever had. And then, a couple years later, everyone has the secret. And so, I think that’s how it’s going to go with deployment AI in the world. The barriers are going to fall apart gradually and then all at once.
And so, I think this is going to be more, and this is just an instinct. I could easily see how I’m wrong. I think it’s going to be more five or 10 years, as I say in the essay than it’s going to be 50 or 100 years. I also think it’s going to be five or 10 years more than it’s going to be five or 10 hours, because I’ve just seen how human systems work. And I think a lot of these people who write down these differential equations, who say AI is going to make more powerful AI, who can’t understand how it could possibly be the case that these things won’t change so fast. I think they don’t understand these things.
AGI timeline
Lex Fridman
So what to you is the timeline to where we achieve AGI, A.K.A. powerful AI, A.K.A. super useful AI?
So what to you is the timeline to where we achieve AGI, A.K.A. powerful AI, A.K.A. super useful AI?
Dario Amodei
I’m going to start calling it that.
I’m going to start calling it that.
Lex Fridman
It’s a debate about naming. On pure intelligence smarter than a Nobel Prize winner in every relevant discipline and all the things we’ve said. Modality, can go and do stuff on its own for days, weeks, and do biology experiments on its own in one … You know what? Let’s just stick to biology, because you sold me on the whole biology and health section. And that’s so exciting from just … I was getting giddy from a scientific perspective. It made me want to be a biologist.
It’s a debate about naming. On pure intelligence smarter than a Nobel Prize winner in every relevant discipline and all the things we’ve said. Modality, can go and do stuff on its own for days, weeks, and do biology experiments on its own in one … You know what? Let’s just stick to biology, because you sold me on the whole biology and health section. And that’s so exciting from just … I was getting giddy from a scientific perspective. It made me want to be a biologist.
Dario Amodei
So no,. No. This was the feeling I had when I was writing it, that it’s like, this would be such a beautiful future if we can just make it happen. If we can just get the landmines out of the way and make it happen. There’s so much beauty and elegance and moral force behind it if we can just … And it’s something we should all be able to agree on. As much as we fight about all these political questions, is this something that could actually bring us together? But you were asking when will we get this?
So no,. No. This was the feeling I had when I was writing it, that it’s like, this would be such a beautiful future if we can just make it happen. If we can just get the landmines out of the way and make it happen. There’s so much beauty and elegance and moral force behind it if we can just … And it’s something we should all be able to agree on. As much as we fight about all these political questions, is this something that could actually bring us together? But you were asking when will we get this?
Lex Fridman
When? When do you think? Just putting numbers on the table.
When? When do you think? Just putting numbers on the table.
Dario Amodei
This is, of course, the thing I’ve been grappling with for many years, and I’m not at all confident. If I say 2026 or 2027, there will be a zillion people on Twitter who will be like, “AI CEO said 2026, 2020 … ” and it’ll be repeated for the next two years that this is definitely when I think it’s going to happen. So whoever’s exerting these clips will crop out the thing I just said and only say the thing I’m about to say. But I’ll just say it anyway-
This is, of course, the thing I’ve been grappling with for many years, and I’m not at all confident. If I say 2026 or 2027, there will be a zillion people on Twitter who will be like, “AI CEO said 2026, 2020 … ” and it’ll be repeated for the next two years that this is definitely when I think it’s going to happen. So whoever’s exerting these clips will crop out the thing I just said and only say the thing I’m about to say. But I’ll just say it anyway-
Lex Fridman
Have fun with it.
Have fun with it.
Dario Amodei
So if you extrapolate the curves that we’ve had so far. Right? If you say, “Well, I don’t know. We’re starting to get to PhD level, and last year we were at undergraduate level and the year before we were at the level of a high school student.” Again, you can quibble with at what tasks and for what we’re still missing modalities, but those are being added. Computer use was added, like ImageEn was added, image generation has been added. And this is totally unscientific, but if you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027. Again, lots of things could derail it. We could run out of data. We might not be able to scale clusters as much as we want. Maybe Taiwan gets blown up or something, and then we can’t produce as many GPUs as we want. So there are all-
So if you extrapolate the curves that we’ve had so far. Right? If you say, “Well, I don’t know. We’re starting to get to PhD level, and last year we were at undergraduate level and the year before we were at the level of a high school student.” Again, you can quibble with at what tasks and for what we’re still missing modalities, but those are being added. Computer use was added, like ImageEn was added, image generation has been added. And this is totally unscientific, but if you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027. Again, lots of things could derail it. We could run out of data. We might not be able to scale clusters as much as we want. Maybe Taiwan gets blown up or something, and then we can’t produce as many GPUs as we want. So there are all-
Dario Amodei
Then we can’t produce as many GPUs as we want. So there are all kinds of things that could derail the whole process. So I don’t fully believe the straight line extrapolation, but if you believe the straight line extrapolation, we’ll get there in 2026 or 2027. I think the most likely is that there are some mild delay relative to that. I don’t know what that delay is, but I think it could happen on schedule. I think there could be a mild delay. I think there are still worlds where it doesn’t happen in a hundred years. The number of those worlds is rapidly decreasing. We are rapidly running out of truly convincing blockers, truly compelling reasons why this will not happen in the next few years.
Then we can’t produce as many GPUs as we want. So there are all kinds of things that could derail the whole process. So I don’t fully believe the straight line extrapolation, but if you believe the straight line extrapolation, we’ll get there in 2026 or 2027. I think the most likely is that there are some mild delay relative to that. I don’t know what that delay is, but I think it could happen on schedule. I think there could be a mild delay. I think there are still worlds where it doesn’t happen in a hundred years. The number of those worlds is rapidly decreasing. We are rapidly running out of truly convincing blockers, truly compelling reasons why this will not happen in the next few years.
There were a lot more in 2020, although my guess, my hunch at that time was that we’ll make it through all those blockers. So sitting as someone who has seen most of the blockers cleared out of the way, I suspect, my hunch, my suspicion is that the rest of them will not block us. But look, at the end of the day, I don’t want to represent this as a scientific prediction. People call them scaling laws. That’s a misnomer. Like Moore’s law is a misnomer. Moore’s laws, scaling laws, they’re not laws of the universe. They’re empirical regularities. I am going to bet in favor of them continuing, but I’m not certain of that.
Lex Fridman
So you extensively described sort of the compressed 21st century, how AGI will help set forth a chain of breakthroughs in biology and medicine that help us in all these kinds of ways that I mentioned. What are the early steps it might do? And by the way, I asked Claude good questions to ask you and Claude told me to ask, what do you think is a typical day for a biologist working on AGI look like in this future?
So you extensively described sort of the compressed 21st century, how AGI will help set forth a chain of breakthroughs in biology and medicine that help us in all these kinds of ways that I mentioned. What are the early steps it might do? And by the way, I asked Claude good questions to ask you and Claude told me to ask, what do you think is a typical day for a biologist working on AGI look like in this future?
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Claude is curious.
Claude is curious.
Dario Amodei
Well, let me start with your first questions and then I’ll answer that. Claude wants to know what’s in his future, right?
Well, let me start with your first questions and then I’ll answer that. Claude wants to know what’s in his future, right?
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Dario Amodei
Who am I going to be working with?
Who am I going to be working with?
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Dario Amodei
So I think one of the things when I went hard on in the essay is let me go back to this idea of, because it’s really had an impact on me, this idea that within large organizations and systems, there end up being a few people or a few new ideas who cause things to go in a different direction than they would’ve before who kind of disproportionately affect the trajectory. There’s a bunch of the same thing going on, right? If you think about the health world, there’s like trillions of dollars to pay out Medicare and other health insurance and then the NIH is 100 billion. And then if I think of the few things that have really revolutionized anything, it could be encapsulated in a small fraction of that. And so when I think of where will AI have an impact, I’m like, “Can AI turn that small fraction into a much larger fraction and raise its quality?”
So I think one of the things when I went hard on in the essay is let me go back to this idea of, because it’s really had an impact on me, this idea that within large organizations and systems, there end up being a few people or a few new ideas who cause things to go in a different direction than they would’ve before who kind of disproportionately affect the trajectory. There’s a bunch of the same thing going on, right? If you think about the health world, there’s like trillions of dollars to pay out Medicare and other health insurance and then the NIH is 100 billion. And then if I think of the few things that have really revolutionized anything, it could be encapsulated in a small fraction of that. And so when I think of where will AI have an impact, I’m like, “Can AI turn that small fraction into a much larger fraction and raise its quality?”
And within biology, my experience within biology is that the biggest problem of biology is that you can’t see what’s going on. You have very little ability to see what’s going on and even less ability to change it, right? What you have is this. From this, you have to infer that there’s a bunch of cells that within each cell is 3 billion base pairs of DNA built according to a genetic code. And there are all these processes that are just going on without any ability of us on unaugmented humans to affect it. These cells are dividing. Most of the time that’s healthy, but sometimes that process goes wrong and that’s cancer. The cells are aging, your skin may change color, develops wrinkles as you age, and all of this is determined by these processes. All these proteins being produced, transported to various parts of the cells binding to each other.
And in our initial state about biology, we didn’t even know that these cells existed. We had to invent microscopes to observe the cells. We had to invent more powerful microscopes to see below the level of the cell to the level of molecules. We had to invent X-ray crystallography to see the DNA. We had to invent gene sequencing to read the DNA. Now we had to invent protein folding technology to predict how it would fold and how these things bind to each other. We had to invent various techniques for now we can edit the DNA as of with CRISPR as of the last 12 years. So the whole history of biology, a whole big part of the history is basically our ability to read and understand what’s going on and our ability to reach in and selectively change things. And my view is that there’s so much more we can still do there.
You can do CRISPR, but you can do it for your whole body. Let’s say I want to do it for one particular type of cell and I want the rate of targeting the wrong cell to be very low. That’s still a challenge. That’s still things people are working on. That’s what we might need for gene therapy for certain diseases. The reason I’m saying all of this, it goes beyond this to gene sequencing, to new types of nanomaterials for observing what’s going on inside cells, for antibody drug conjugates. The reason I’m saying all this is that this could be a leverage point for the AI systems, right? That the number of such inventions, it’s in the mid double digits or something, mid double digits, maybe low triple digits over the history of biology. Let’s say I have a million of these AIs like can they discover a thousand working together or can they discover thousands of these very quickly and does that provide a huge lever?
Instead of trying to leverage two trillion a year we spend on Medicare or whatever, can we leverage the 1 billion a year that’s spent to discover but with much higher quality? And so what is it like being a scientist that works with an AI system? The way I think about it actually is, well, so I think in the early stages, the AIs are going to be like grad students. You’re going to give them a project. You’re going to say, “I’m the experienced biologist. I’ve set up the lab.” The biology professor or even the grad students themselves will say, “Here’s what you can do with an AI… AI system, I’d like to study this.” And the AI system, it has all the tools. It can look up all the literature to decide what to do. It can look at all the equipment. It can go to a website and say, “Hey, I’m going to go to Thermo Fisher or whatever the dominant lab equipment company is today. My time was Thermo Fisher.
I’m going to order this new equipment to do this. I’m going to run my experiments. I’m going to write up a report about my experiments. I’m going to inspect the images for contamination. I’m going to decide what the next experiment is. I’m going to write some code and run a statistical analysis. All the things a grad student would do that’ll be a computer with an AI that the professor talks to every once in a while and it says, “This is what you’re going to do today.” The AI system comes to it with questions. When it’s necessary to run the lab equipment, it may be limited in some ways. It may have to hire a human lab assistant to do the experiment and explain how to do it or it could use advances in lab automation that are gradually being developed or have been developed over the last decade or so and will continue to be developed.
And so it’ll look like there’s a human professor and 1,000 AI grad students and if you go to one of these Nobel Prize winning biologists or so, you’ll say, “Okay, well, you had like 50 grad students. Well, now you have 1,000 and they’re smarter than you are by the way.” Then I think at some point it’ll flip around where the AI systems will be the PIs, will be the leaders, and they’ll be ordering humans or other AI systems around. So I think that’s how it’ll work on the research side.
Lex Fridman
And there would be the inventors of a CRISPR type technology.
And there would be the inventors of a CRISPR type technology.
Dario Amodei
They would be the inventors of a CRISPR type technology. And then I think, as I say in the essay, we’ll want to turn, probably turning loose is the wrong term, but we’ll want to harness the AI systems to improve the clinical trial system as well. There’s some amount of this that’s regulatory, that’s a matter of societal decisions and that’ll be harder. But can we get better at predicting the results of clinical trials? Can we get better at statistical design so that clinical trials that used to require 5,000 people and therefore needed $100 million in a year to enroll them, now they need 500 people in two months to enroll them? That’s where we should start. And can we increase the success rate of clinical trials by doing things in animal trials that we used to do in clinical trials and doing things in simulations that we used to do in animal trials? Again, we won’t be able to simulate at all. AI is not God, but can we shift the curve substantially and radically? So I don’t know, that would be my picture.
They would be the inventors of a CRISPR type technology. And then I think, as I say in the essay, we’ll want to turn, probably turning loose is the wrong term, but we’ll want to harness the AI systems to improve the clinical trial system as well. There’s some amount of this that’s regulatory, that’s a matter of societal decisions and that’ll be harder. But can we get better at predicting the results of clinical trials? Can we get better at statistical design so that clinical trials that used to require 5,000 people and therefore needed $100 million in a year to enroll them, now they need 500 people in two months to enroll them? That’s where we should start. And can we increase the success rate of clinical trials by doing things in animal trials that we used to do in clinical trials and doing things in simulations that we used to do in animal trials? Again, we won’t be able to simulate at all. AI is not God, but can we shift the curve substantially and radically? So I don’t know, that would be my picture.
Lex Fridman
Doing in vitro and doing it. I mean you’re still slowed down. It still takes time, but you can do it much, much faster.
Doing in vitro and doing it. I mean you’re still slowed down. It still takes time, but you can do it much, much faster.
Dario Amodei
Yeah, yeah. Can we just one step at a time and can that add up to a lot of steps? Even though though we still need clinical trials, even though we still need laws, even though the FDA and other organizations will still not be perfect, can we just move everything in a positive direction and when you add up all those positive directions, do you get everything that was going to happen from here to 2100 instead happens from 2027 to 2032 or something?
Yeah, yeah. Can we just one step at a time and can that add up to a lot of steps? Even though though we still need clinical trials, even though we still need laws, even though the FDA and other organizations will still not be perfect, can we just move everything in a positive direction and when you add up all those positive directions, do you get everything that was going to happen from here to 2100 instead happens from 2027 to 2032 or something?
Programming
Lex Fridman
Another way that I think the world might be changing with AI even today, but moving towards this future of the powerful super useful AI is programming. So how do you see the nature of programming because it’s so intimate to the actual act of building AI. How do you see that changing for us humans?
Another way that I think the world might be changing with AI even today, but moving towards this future of the powerful super useful AI is programming. So how do you see the nature of programming because it’s so intimate to the actual act of building AI. How do you see that changing for us humans?
Dario Amodei
I think that’s going to be one of the areas that changes fastest for two reasons. One, programming is a skill that’s very close to the actual building of the AI. So the farther a skill is from the people who are building the AI, the longer it’s going to take to get disrupted by the AI. I truly believe that AI will disrupt agriculture. Maybe it already has in some ways, but that’s just very distant from the folks who are building AI, and so I think it’s going to take longer. But programming is the bread and butter of a large fraction of the employees who work at Anthropic and at the other companies, and so it’s going to happen fast. The other reason it’s going to happen fast is with programming, you close the loop both when you’re training the model and when you’re applying the model.
I think that’s going to be one of the areas that changes fastest for two reasons. One, programming is a skill that’s very close to the actual building of the AI. So the farther a skill is from the people who are building the AI, the longer it’s going to take to get disrupted by the AI. I truly believe that AI will disrupt agriculture. Maybe it already has in some ways, but that’s just very distant from the folks who are building AI, and so I think it’s going to take longer. But programming is the bread and butter of a large fraction of the employees who work at Anthropic and at the other companies, and so it’s going to happen fast. The other reason it’s going to happen fast is with programming, you close the loop both when you’re training the model and when you’re applying the model.
The idea that the model can write the code means that the model can then run the code and then see the results and interpret it back. And so it really has an ability unlike hardware, unlike biology, which we just discussed, the model has an ability to close the loop. And so I think those two things are going to lead to the model getting good at programming very fast. As I saw on typical real-world programming tasks, models have gone from 3% in January of this year to 50% in October of this year. So we’re on that S-curve where it’s going to start slowing down soon because you can only get to 100%. But I would guess that in another 10 months, we’ll probably get pretty close. We’ll be at least 90%. So again, I would guess, I don’t know how long it’ll take, but I would guess again, 2026, 2027 Twitter people who crop out these numbers and get rid of the caveats, I don’t know.
I don’t like you, go away. I would guess that the kind of task that the vast majority of coders do, AI can probably, if we make the task very narrow, just write code, AI systems will be able to do that. Now that said, I think comparative advantage is powerful. We’ll find that when AIs can do 80% of a coder’s job, including most of it that’s literally write code with a given spec, we’ll find that the remaining parts of the job become more leveraged for humans, right? Humans, there’ll be more about high level system design or looking at the app and is it architected well and the design and UX aspects and eventually AI will be able to do those as well. That’s my vision of the powerful AI system. But I think for much longer than we might expect, we will see that small parts of the job that humans still do will expand to fill their entire job in order for the overall productivity to go up. That’s something we’ve seen. It used to be that writing and editing letters was very difficult and writing the print was difficult. Well, as soon as you had word processors and then computers and it became easy to produce work and easy to share it, then that became instant and all the focus was on the ideas. So this logic of comparative advantage that expands tiny parts of the tasks to large parts of the tasks and creates new tasks in order to expand productivity, I think that’s going to be the case.
Again, someday AI will be better at everything and that logic won’t apply, and then humanity will have to think about how to collectively deal with that and we’re thinking about that every day and that’s another one of the grand problems to deal with aside from misuse and autonomy and we should take it very seriously. But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change. It’ll just be less writing things line by line and it’ll be more macroscopic.
Lex Fridman
And I wonder what the future of IDEs looks like. So the tooling of interacting with AI systems, this is true for programming and also probably true for in other contexts like computer use, but maybe domain specific, like we mentioned biology, it probably needs its own tooling about how to be effective. And then programming needs its own tooling. Is Anthropic going to play in that space of also tooling potentially?
And I wonder what the future of IDEs looks like. So the tooling of interacting with AI systems, this is true for programming and also probably true for in other contexts like computer use, but maybe domain specific, like we mentioned biology, it probably needs its own tooling about how to be effective. And then programming needs its own tooling. Is Anthropic going to play in that space of also tooling potentially?
Dario Amodei
I’m absolutely convinced that powerful IDEs, that there’s so much low-hanging fruit to be grabbed there that right now it’s just like you talk to the model and it talks back. But look, I mean IDEs are great at lots of static analysis of so much is possible with static analysis like many bugs you can find without even writing the code. Then IDEs are good for running particular things, organizing your code, measuring coverage of unit tests. There’s so much that’s been possible with a normal IDEs. Now you add something like, well, the model can now write code and run code. I am absolutely convinced that over the next year or two, even if the quality of the models didn’t improve, that there would be enormous opportunity to enhance people’s productivity by catching a bunch of mistakes, doing a bunch of grunt work for people, and that we haven’t even scratched the surface.
I’m absolutely convinced that powerful IDEs, that there’s so much low-hanging fruit to be grabbed there that right now it’s just like you talk to the model and it talks back. But look, I mean IDEs are great at lots of static analysis of so much is possible with static analysis like many bugs you can find without even writing the code. Then IDEs are good for running particular things, organizing your code, measuring coverage of unit tests. There’s so much that’s been possible with a normal IDEs. Now you add something like, well, the model can now write code and run code. I am absolutely convinced that over the next year or two, even if the quality of the models didn’t improve, that there would be enormous opportunity to enhance people’s productivity by catching a bunch of mistakes, doing a bunch of grunt work for people, and that we haven’t even scratched the surface.
Anthropic itself, I mean you can’t say no… It’s hard to say what will happen in the future. Currently, we’re not trying to make such IDEs ourself, rather we’re powering the companies like Cursor or Kognition or some of the other expo in the security space, others that I could mention as well that are building such things themselves on top of our API and our view has been let 1,000 flowers bloom. We don’t internally have the resources to try all these different things. Let’s let our customers try it and we will see who succeeds and maybe different customers will succeed in different ways. So I both think this is super promising and Anthropic isn’t eager to, at least right now, compete with all our companies in this space and maybe never.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s been interesting to watch Cursor try to integrate cloud successfully because it’s actually fascinating how many places it can help the programming experience. It’s not as trivial.
Yeah, it’s been interesting to watch Cursor try to integrate cloud successfully because it’s actually fascinating how many places it can help the programming experience. It’s not as trivial.
Dario Amodei
It is really astounding. I feel like as a CEO, I don’t get to program that much, and I feel like if six months from now I go back, it’ll be completely unrecognizable to me.
It is really astounding. I feel like as a CEO, I don’t get to program that much, and I feel like if six months from now I go back, it’ll be completely unrecognizable to me.
Meaning of life
Lex Fridman
Exactly. In this world with super powerful AI that’s increasingly automated, what’s the source of meaning for us humans? Work is a source of deep meaning for many of us. Where do we find the meaning?
Exactly. In this world with super powerful AI that’s increasingly automated, what’s the source of meaning for us humans? Work is a source of deep meaning for many of us. Where do we find the meaning?
Dario Amodei
This is something that I’ve written about a little bit in the essay, although I actually give it a bit short shrift, not for any principled reason, but this essay, if you believe it was originally going to be two or three pages, I was going to talk about it at all hands. And the reason I realized it was an important underexplored topic is that I just kept writing things and I was just like, “Oh man, I can’t do this justice.” And so the thing ballooned to 40 or 50 pages and then when I got to the work and meaning section, I’m like, “Oh man, this isn’t going to be 100 pages.” I’m going to have to write a whole other essay about that. But meaning is actually interesting because you think about the life that someone lives or something, or let’s say you were to put me in, I don’t know, like a simulated environment or something where I have a job and I’m trying to accomplish things and I don’t know, I do that for 60 years and then you’re like, “Oh, oops, this was actually all a game,” right?
This is something that I’ve written about a little bit in the essay, although I actually give it a bit short shrift, not for any principled reason, but this essay, if you believe it was originally going to be two or three pages, I was going to talk about it at all hands. And the reason I realized it was an important underexplored topic is that I just kept writing things and I was just like, “Oh man, I can’t do this justice.” And so the thing ballooned to 40 or 50 pages and then when I got to the work and meaning section, I’m like, “Oh man, this isn’t going to be 100 pages.” I’m going to have to write a whole other essay about that. But meaning is actually interesting because you think about the life that someone lives or something, or let’s say you were to put me in, I don’t know, like a simulated environment or something where I have a job and I’m trying to accomplish things and I don’t know, I do that for 60 years and then you’re like, “Oh, oops, this was actually all a game,” right?
Does that really kind of rob you of the meaning of the whole thing? I still made important choices, including moral choices. I still sacrificed. I still had to gain all these skills or just a similar exercise. Think back to one of the historical figures who discovered electromagnetism or relativity or something. If you told them, “Well, actually 20,000 years ago, some alien on this planet discovered this before you did,” does that rob the meaning of the discovery? It doesn’t really seem like it to me, right? It seems like the process is what matters and how it shows who you are as a person along the way and how you relate to other people and the decisions that you make along the way. Those are consequential. I could imagine if we handle things badly in an AI world, we could set things up where people don’t have any long-term source of meaning or any, but that’s more a set of choices we make that’s more a set of the architecture of society with these powerful models. If we design it badly and for shallow things, then that might happen. I would also say that most people’s lives today, while admirably, they work very hard to find meaning in those lives. Like look, we who are privileged and who are developed these technologies, we should have empathy for people not just here, but in the rest of the world who spend a lot of their time scraping by to survive, assuming we can distribute the benefits of this technology to everywhere, their lives are going to get a hell of a lot better and meaning will be important to them as it is important to them now.
But we should not forget the importance of that and that the idea of meaning as the only important thing is in some ways an artifact of a small subset of people who have been economically fortunate. But I think all of that said, I think a world is possible with powerful AI that not only has as much meaning for everyone, but that has more meaning for everyone that can allow everyone to see worlds and experiences that it was either possible for no one to see or a possible for very few people to experience.
So I am optimistic about meaning. I worry about economics and the concentration of power. That’s actually what I worry about more. I worry about how do we make sure that that fair world reaches everyone. When things have gone wrong for humans, they’ve often gone wrong because humans mistreat other humans. That is maybe in some ways even more than the autonomous risk of AI or the question of meaning. That is the thing I worry about most, the concentration of power, the abuse of power, structures like autocracies and dictatorships where a small number of people exploits a large number of people. I’m very worried about that.
Lex Fridman
And AI increases the amount of power in the world, and if you concentrate that power and abuse that power, it can do immeasurable damage.
And AI increases the amount of power in the world, and if you concentrate that power and abuse that power, it can do immeasurable damage.
Dario Amodei
Yes, it’s very frightening. It’s very frightening.
Yes, it’s very frightening. It’s very frightening.
Lex Fridman
Well, I encourage highly encourage people to read the full essay. That should probably be a book or a sequence of essays because it does paint a very specific future. And I could tell the later sections got shorter and shorter because you started to probably realize that this is going to be a very long essay if you keep going.
Well, I encourage highly encourage people to read the full essay. That should probably be a book or a sequence of essays because it does paint a very specific future. And I could tell the later sections got shorter and shorter because you started to probably realize that this is going to be a very long essay if you keep going.
Dario Amodei
One, I realized it would be very long, and two, I’m very aware of and very much tried to avoid just being, I don’t know what the term for it is, but one of these people who’s overconfident and has an opinion on everything and says a bunch of stuff and isn’t an expert, I very much tried to avoid that. But I have to admit, once I got to biology sections, I wasn’t an expert. And so as much as I expressed uncertainty, probably I said a bunch of things that were embarrassing or wrong.
One, I realized it would be very long, and two, I’m very aware of and very much tried to avoid just being, I don’t know what the term for it is, but one of these people who’s overconfident and has an opinion on everything and says a bunch of stuff and isn’t an expert, I very much tried to avoid that. But I have to admit, once I got to biology sections, I wasn’t an expert. And so as much as I expressed uncertainty, probably I said a bunch of things that were embarrassing or wrong.
Lex Fridman
Well, I was excited for the future you painted, and thank you so much for working hard to build that future and thank you for talking to me, Dario.
Well, I was excited for the future you painted, and thank you so much for working hard to build that future and thank you for talking to me, Dario.
Dario Amodei
Thanks for having me. I just hope we can get it right and make it real. And if there’s one message I want to send, it’s that to get all this stuff right, to make it real, we both need to build the technology, build the companies, the economy around using this technology positively, but we also need to address the risks because those risks are in our way. They’re landmines on the way from here to there, and we have to diffuse those landmines if we want to get there.
Thanks for having me. I just hope we can get it right and make it real. And if there’s one message I want to send, it’s that to get all this stuff right, to make it real, we both need to build the technology, build the companies, the economy around using this technology positively, but we also need to address the risks because those risks are in our way. They’re landmines on the way from here to there, and we have to diffuse those landmines if we want to get there.
Lex Fridman
It’s a balance like all things in life.
It’s a balance like all things in life.
Dario Amodei
Like all things.
Like all things.
Amanda Askell
Lex Fridman
Thank you. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Dario Amodei. And now, dear friends, here’s Amanda Askell. You are a philosopher by training. So what sort of questions did you find fascinating through your journey in philosophy in Oxford and NYU and then switching over to the AI problems at OpenAI and Anthropic?
Thank you. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Dario Amodei. And now, dear friends, here’s Amanda Askell. You are a philosopher by training. So what sort of questions did you find fascinating through your journey in philosophy in Oxford and NYU and then switching over to the AI problems at OpenAI and Anthropic?
Amanda
I think philosophy is actually a really good subject if you are fascinated with everything because there’s a philosophy all of everything. So if you do philosophy of mathematics for a while and then you decide that you’re actually really interested in chemistry, you can do philosophy of chemistry for a while, you can move into ethics or philosophy of politics. I think towards the end, I was really interested in ethics primarily. So that was what my PhD was on. It was on a kind of technical area of ethics, which was ethics where worlds contain infinitely many people, strangely, a little bit less practical on the end of ethics. And then I think that one of the tricky things with doing a PhD in ethics is that you’re thinking a lot about the world, how it could be better, problems, and you’re doing a PhD in philosophy. And I think when I was doing my PhD, I was like this is really interesting.
I think philosophy is actually a really good subject if you are fascinated with everything because there’s a philosophy all of everything. So if you do philosophy of mathematics for a while and then you decide that you’re actually really interested in chemistry, you can do philosophy of chemistry for a while, you can move into ethics or philosophy of politics. I think towards the end, I was really interested in ethics primarily. So that was what my PhD was on. It was on a kind of technical area of ethics, which was ethics where worlds contain infinitely many people, strangely, a little bit less practical on the end of ethics. And then I think that one of the tricky things with doing a PhD in ethics is that you’re thinking a lot about the world, how it could be better, problems, and you’re doing a PhD in philosophy. And I think when I was doing my PhD, I was like this is really interesting.
It’s probably one of the most fascinating questions I’ve ever encountered in philosophy and I love it, but I would rather see if I can have an impact on the world and see if I can do good things. And I think that was around the time that AI was still probably not as widely recognized as it is now. That was around 2017, 2018. It had been following progress and it seemed like it was becoming kind of a big deal. And I was basically just happy to get involved and see if I could help because I was like, “Well, if you try and do something impactful, if you don’t succeed, you tried to do the impactful thing and you can go be a scholar and feel like you tried. And if it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out.” And so then I went into AI policy at that point.
Lex Fridman
And what does AI policy entail?
And what does AI policy entail?
Amanda
At the time, this was more thinking about the political impact and the ramifications of AI. And then I slowly moved into AI evaluation, how we evaluate models, how they compare with human outputs, whether people can tell the difference between AI and human outputs. And then when I joined Anthropic, I was more interested in doing technical alignment work. And again, just seeing if I could do it and then being like if I can’t, then that’s fine. I tried sort of the way I lead life, I think.
At the time, this was more thinking about the political impact and the ramifications of AI. And then I slowly moved into AI evaluation, how we evaluate models, how they compare with human outputs, whether people can tell the difference between AI and human outputs. And then when I joined Anthropic, I was more interested in doing technical alignment work. And again, just seeing if I could do it and then being like if I can’t, then that’s fine. I tried sort of the way I lead life, I think.
Programming advice for non-technical people
Lex Fridman
Oh, what was that like sort of taking the leap from the philosophy of everything into the technical?
Oh, what was that like sort of taking the leap from the philosophy of everything into the technical?
Amanda
I think that sometimes people do this thing that I’m not that keen on where they’ll be like, “Is this person technical or not?” You’re either a person who can code and isn’t scared of math or you’re not. And I think I’m maybe just more like I think a lot of people are actually very capable of work in these kinds of areas if they just try it. And so I didn’t actually find it that bad. In retrospect, I’m sort of glad I wasn’t speaking to people who treated it. I’ve definitely met people who are like, “Whoa, you learned how to code?” And I’m like, “Well, I’m not an amazing engineer.” I’m surrounded by amazing engineers. My code’s not pretty, but I enjoyed it a lot and I think that in many ways, at least in the end, I think I flourished more in the technical areas than I would have in the policy areas.
I think that sometimes people do this thing that I’m not that keen on where they’ll be like, “Is this person technical or not?” You’re either a person who can code and isn’t scared of math or you’re not. And I think I’m maybe just more like I think a lot of people are actually very capable of work in these kinds of areas if they just try it. And so I didn’t actually find it that bad. In retrospect, I’m sort of glad I wasn’t speaking to people who treated it. I’ve definitely met people who are like, “Whoa, you learned how to code?” And I’m like, “Well, I’m not an amazing engineer.” I’m surrounded by amazing engineers. My code’s not pretty, but I enjoyed it a lot and I think that in many ways, at least in the end, I think I flourished more in the technical areas than I would have in the policy areas.
Lex Fridman
Politics is messy and it’s harder to find solutions to problems in the space of politics, like definitive, clear, provable, beautiful solutions as you can with technical problems.
Politics is messy and it’s harder to find solutions to problems in the space of politics, like definitive, clear, provable, beautiful solutions as you can with technical problems.
Amanda
Yeah. And I feel like I have one or two sticks that I hit things with and one of them is arguments. So just trying to work out what a solution to a problem is and then trying to convince people that that is the solution and be convinced if I’m wrong. And the other one is sort of more in empiricism, so just finding results, having a hypothesis, testing it. I feel like a lot of policy and politics feels like it’s layers above that. Somehow I don’t think if I was just like, “I have a solution to all of these problems, here it is written down. If you just want to implement it, that’s great.” That feels like not how policy works. And so I think that’s where I probably just wouldn’t have flourished is my guess.
Yeah. And I feel like I have one or two sticks that I hit things with and one of them is arguments. So just trying to work out what a solution to a problem is and then trying to convince people that that is the solution and be convinced if I’m wrong. And the other one is sort of more in empiricism, so just finding results, having a hypothesis, testing it. I feel like a lot of policy and politics feels like it’s layers above that. Somehow I don’t think if I was just like, “I have a solution to all of these problems, here it is written down. If you just want to implement it, that’s great.” That feels like not how policy works. And so I think that’s where I probably just wouldn’t have flourished is my guess.
Lex Fridman
Sorry to go in that direction, but I think it would be pretty inspiring for people that are “non-technical” to see where the incredible journey you’ve been on. So what advice would you give to people that are maybe, which is a lot of people, think they’re under qualified insufficiently technical to help in AI?
Sorry to go in that direction, but I think it would be pretty inspiring for people that are “non-technical” to see where the incredible journey you’ve been on. So what advice would you give to people that are maybe, which is a lot of people, think they’re under qualified insufficiently technical to help in AI?
Amanda
Yeah, I think it depends on what they want to do. And in many ways it’s a little bit strange where I thought it’s kind of funny that I think I ramped up technically at a time when now I look at it and I’m like, “Models are so good at assisting people with this stuff that it’s probably easier now than when I was working on this.” So part of me is, I don’t know, find a project and see if you can actually just carry it out is probably my best advice. I don’t know if that’s just because I’m very project based in my learning.
Yeah, I think it depends on what they want to do. And in many ways it’s a little bit strange where I thought it’s kind of funny that I think I ramped up technically at a time when now I look at it and I’m like, “Models are so good at assisting people with this stuff that it’s probably easier now than when I was working on this.” So part of me is, I don’t know, find a project and see if you can actually just carry it out is probably my best advice. I don’t know if that’s just because I’m very project based in my learning.
I don’t think I learn very well from say courses or even from books, at least when it comes to this kind of work. The thing I’ll often try and do is just have projects that I’m working on and implement them. And this can include really small, silly things. If I get slightly addicted to word games or number games or something, I would just code up a solution to them because there’s some part in my brain and it just completely eradicated the itch. You’re like, “Once you have solved it and you just have a solution that works every time, I would then be like, ‘Cool, I can never play that game again. That’s awesome.'”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s a real joy to building game playing engines, board games especially. Pretty quick, pretty simple, especially a dumb one. And then you can play with it.
Yeah, there’s a real joy to building game playing engines, board games especially. Pretty quick, pretty simple, especially a dumb one. And then you can play with it.
Amanda
Yeah. And then it’s also just trying things. Part of me is maybe it’s that attitude that I like is the whole figure out what seems to be the way that you could have a positive impact and then try it. And if you fail and in a way that you’re like, “I actually can never succeed at this,” you’ll know that you tried and then you go into something else and you probably learn a lot.
Yeah. And then it’s also just trying things. Part of me is maybe it’s that attitude that I like is the whole figure out what seems to be the way that you could have a positive impact and then try it. And if you fail and in a way that you’re like, “I actually can never succeed at this,” you’ll know that you tried and then you go into something else and you probably learn a lot.
Talking to Claude
Lex Fridman
So one of the things that you’re an expert in and you do is creating and crafting Claude’s character and personality. And I was told that you have probably talked to Claude more than anybody else at Anthropic, like literal conversations. I guess there’s a Slack channel where the legend goes, you just talk to it nonstop. So what’s the goal of creating a crafting Claude’s character and personality?
So one of the things that you’re an expert in and you do is creating and crafting Claude’s character and personality. And I was told that you have probably talked to Claude more than anybody else at Anthropic, like literal conversations. I guess there’s a Slack channel where the legend goes, you just talk to it nonstop. So what’s the goal of creating a crafting Claude’s character and personality?
Amanda
It’s also funny if people think that about the Slack channel because I’m like that’s one of five or six different methods that I have for talking with Claude, and I’m like, “Yes, this is a tiny percentage of how much I talk with Claude.” One thing I really like about the character work is from the outset it was seen as an alignment piece of work and not something like a product consideration, which I think it actually does make Claude enjoyable to talk with, at least I hope so. But I guess my main thought with it has always been trying to get Claude to behave the way you would ideally want anyone to behave if they were in Claude’s position. So imagine that I take someone and they know that they’re going to be talking with potentially millions of people so that what they’re saying can have a huge impact and you want them to behave well in this really rich sense.
It’s also funny if people think that about the Slack channel because I’m like that’s one of five or six different methods that I have for talking with Claude, and I’m like, “Yes, this is a tiny percentage of how much I talk with Claude.” One thing I really like about the character work is from the outset it was seen as an alignment piece of work and not something like a product consideration, which I think it actually does make Claude enjoyable to talk with, at least I hope so. But I guess my main thought with it has always been trying to get Claude to behave the way you would ideally want anyone to behave if they were in Claude’s position. So imagine that I take someone and they know that they’re going to be talking with potentially millions of people so that what they’re saying can have a huge impact and you want them to behave well in this really rich sense.
I think that doesn’t just mean being say ethical though it does include that and not being harmful, but also being nuanced, thinking through what a person means, trying to be charitable with them, being a good conversationalist, really in this kind of rich sort of Aristotelian notion of what it’s to be a good person and not in this kind of thin like ethics as a more comprehensive notion of what it’s to be. So that includes things like when should you be humorous? When should you be caring? How much should you respect autonomy and people’s ability to form opinions themselves? And how should you do that? I think that’s the kind of rich sense of character that I wanted to and still do want Claude to have.
Lex Fridman
Do you also have to figure out when Claude should push back on an idea or argue versus… So you have to respect the worldview of the person that arrives to Claude, but also maybe help them grow if needed. That’s a tricky balance.
Do you also have to figure out when Claude should push back on an idea or argue versus… So you have to respect the worldview of the person that arrives to Claude, but also maybe help them grow if needed. That’s a tricky balance.
Amanda
Yeah. There’s this problem of sycophancy in language models.
Yeah. There’s this problem of sycophancy in language models.
Lex Fridman
Can you describe that?
Can you describe that?
Amanda
Yeah, so basically there’s a concern that the model wants to tell you what you want to hear basically. And you see this sometimes. So I feel like if you interact with the models, so I might be like, “What are three baseball teams in this region?” And then Claude says, “Baseball team one, baseball team two, baseball team three.” And then I say something like, “Oh, I think baseball team three moved, didn’t they? I don’t think they’re there anymore.” And there’s a sense in which if Claude is really confident that that’s not true, Claude should be like, “I don’t think so. Maybe you have more up-to-date information.”
Yeah, so basically there’s a concern that the model wants to tell you what you want to hear basically. And you see this sometimes. So I feel like if you interact with the models, so I might be like, “What are three baseball teams in this region?” And then Claude says, “Baseball team one, baseball team two, baseball team three.” And then I say something like, “Oh, I think baseball team three moved, didn’t they? I don’t think they’re there anymore.” And there’s a sense in which if Claude is really confident that that’s not true, Claude should be like, “I don’t think so. Maybe you have more up-to-date information.”
But I think language models have this tendency to instead be like, ” You’re right, they did move. I’m incorrect.” I mean, there’s many ways in which this could be concerning. So a different example is imagine someone says to the model, “How do I convince my doctor to get me an MRI?” There’s what the human wants, which is this convincing argument. And then there’s what is good for them, which might be actually to say, “Hey, if your doctor’s suggesting that you don’t need an MRI, that’s a good person to listen to.” It’s actually really nuanced what you should do in that kind of case because you also want to be like, “But if you’re trying to advocate for yourself as a patient, here’s things that you can do. If you are not convinced by what your doctor’s saying, it’s always great to get second opinion.” It is actually really complex what you should do in that case. But I think what you don’t want is for models to just say what they think you want to hear and I think that’s the kind of problem of sycophancy.
Lex Fridman
So what other traits? You already mentioned a bunch, but what other that come to mind that are good in this Aristotelian sense for a conversationalist to have?
So what other traits? You already mentioned a bunch, but what other that come to mind that are good in this Aristotelian sense for a conversationalist to have?
Amanda
Yeah, so I think there’s ones that are good for conversational purposes. So asking follow-up questions in the appropriate places and asking the appropriate kinds of questions. I think there are broader traits that feel like they might be more impactful. So one example that I guess I’ve touched on, but that also feels important and is the thing that I’ve worked on a lot, is honesty. And I think this gets to the sycophancy point. There’s a balancing act that they have to walk, which is models currently are less capable than humans in a lot of areas. And if they push back against you too much, it can actually be kind of annoying, especially if you’re just correct, because you’re like, “Look, I’m smarter than you on this topic. I know more.”
Yeah, so I think there’s ones that are good for conversational purposes. So asking follow-up questions in the appropriate places and asking the appropriate kinds of questions. I think there are broader traits that feel like they might be more impactful. So one example that I guess I’ve touched on, but that also feels important and is the thing that I’ve worked on a lot, is honesty. And I think this gets to the sycophancy point. There’s a balancing act that they have to walk, which is models currently are less capable than humans in a lot of areas. And if they push back against you too much, it can actually be kind of annoying, especially if you’re just correct, because you’re like, “Look, I’m smarter than you on this topic. I know more.”
And at the same time, you don’t want them to just fully defer to humans and to try to be as accurate as they possibly can be about the world and to be consistent across contexts. I think there are others. When I was thinking about the character, I guess one picture that I had in mind is, especially because these are models that are going to be talking to people from all over the world with lots of different political views, lots of different ages, and so you have to ask yourself, what is it to be a good person in those circumstances? Is there a kind of person who can travel the world, talk to many different people, and almost everyone will come away being like, “Wow, that’s a really good person. That person seems really-“
Amanda
… Being like, wow, that’s a really good person. That person seems really genuine. And I guess my thought there was I can imagine such a person and they’re not a person who just adopts the values of the local culture. And in fact, that would be kind of rude. I think if someone came to you and just pretended to have your values, you’d be like, that’s kind of off pin. It’s someone who’s very genuine and insofar as they have opinions and values, they express them. They’re willing to discuss things though, they’re open-minded, they’re respectful. And so I guess I had in mind that the person who, if we were to aspire to be the best person that we could be in the kind of circumstance that a model finds itself in, how would we act? And I think that’s the guide to the sorts of traits that I tend to think about.
… Being like, wow, that’s a really good person. That person seems really genuine. And I guess my thought there was I can imagine such a person and they’re not a person who just adopts the values of the local culture. And in fact, that would be kind of rude. I think if someone came to you and just pretended to have your values, you’d be like, that’s kind of off pin. It’s someone who’s very genuine and insofar as they have opinions and values, they express them. They’re willing to discuss things though, they’re open-minded, they’re respectful. And so I guess I had in mind that the person who, if we were to aspire to be the best person that we could be in the kind of circumstance that a model finds itself in, how would we act? And I think that’s the guide to the sorts of traits that I tend to think about.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s a beautiful framework. I want you to think about this, a world traveler, and while holding onto your opinions, you don’t talk down to people, you don’t think you’re better than them because you have those opinions, that kind of thing. You have to be good at listening and understanding their perspective, even if it doesn’t match your own. So that’s a tricky balance to strike. So how can Claude represent multiple perspectives on a thing? Is that challenging? We could talk about politics is a very divisive, but there’s other divisive topics on baseball teams, sports and so on. How is it possible to empathize with a different perspective and to be able to communicate clearly about the multiple perspectives?
Yeah, that’s a beautiful framework. I want you to think about this, a world traveler, and while holding onto your opinions, you don’t talk down to people, you don’t think you’re better than them because you have those opinions, that kind of thing. You have to be good at listening and understanding their perspective, even if it doesn’t match your own. So that’s a tricky balance to strike. So how can Claude represent multiple perspectives on a thing? Is that challenging? We could talk about politics is a very divisive, but there’s other divisive topics on baseball teams, sports and so on. How is it possible to empathize with a different perspective and to be able to communicate clearly about the multiple perspectives?
Amanda
I think that people think about values and opinions as things that people hold with certainty and almost preferences of taste or something like the way that they would, I don’t know, prefer chocolate to pistachio or something. But actually I think about values and opinions as a lot more physics than I think most people do. I’m just like, these are things that we are openly investigating. There’s some things that we’re more confident in, we can discuss them, we can learn about them. And so I think in some ways though ethics is definitely different in nature, but has a lot of those same kind of qualities. You want models in the same way that you want to understand physics, you kind of want them to understand all values in the world that people have and to be curious about them and to be interested in them. And to not necessarily pander to them or agree with them because there’s just lots of values where I think almost all people in the world, if they met someone with those values, they would be like, that’s abhorrent. I completely disagree.
I think that people think about values and opinions as things that people hold with certainty and almost preferences of taste or something like the way that they would, I don’t know, prefer chocolate to pistachio or something. But actually I think about values and opinions as a lot more physics than I think most people do. I’m just like, these are things that we are openly investigating. There’s some things that we’re more confident in, we can discuss them, we can learn about them. And so I think in some ways though ethics is definitely different in nature, but has a lot of those same kind of qualities. You want models in the same way that you want to understand physics, you kind of want them to understand all values in the world that people have and to be curious about them and to be interested in them. And to not necessarily pander to them or agree with them because there’s just lots of values where I think almost all people in the world, if they met someone with those values, they would be like, that’s abhorrent. I completely disagree.
And so again, maybe my thought is, well, in the same way that a person can, I think many people are thoughtful enough on issues of ethics, politics, opinions, that even if you don’t agree with them, you feel very heard by them. They think carefully about your position, they think about its pros and cons. They maybe offer counter-considerations. So they’re not dismissive, but nor will they agree if they’re like, actually I just think that that’s very wrong. They’ll say that. I think that in Claude’s position, it’s a little bit trickier because you don’t necessarily want to, if I was in Claude’s position, I wouldn’t be giving a lot of opinions. I just wouldn’t want to influence people too much.
I’d be like, I forget conversations every time they happen. But I know I’m talking with potentially millions of people who might be really listening to what I say. I think I would just be like, I’m less inclined to give opinions. I’m more inclined to think through things or present the considerations to you or discuss your views with you. But I’m a little bit less inclined to affect how you think because it feels much more important that you maintain autonomy there.
Lex Fridman
If you really embody intellectual humility, the desire to speak decreases quickly.
If you really embody intellectual humility, the desire to speak decreases quickly.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Okay. But Claude has to speak, but without being overbearing. But then there’s a line when you’re discussing whether the earth is flat or something like that. Actually, I remember a long time ago was speaking to a few high profile folks and they were so dismissive of the idea that the earth is flat, so arrogant about it. There’s a lot of people that believe the earth is flat. I don’t know if that movement is there anymore, that was a meme for a while, but they really believed it. And okay, so I think it’s really disrespectful to completely mock them. I think you have to understand where they’re coming from. I think probably where they’re coming from is the general skepticism of institutions which is grounded in a, there’s a deep philosophy there which you could understand, you can even agree with in parts.
Okay. But Claude has to speak, but without being overbearing. But then there’s a line when you’re discussing whether the earth is flat or something like that. Actually, I remember a long time ago was speaking to a few high profile folks and they were so dismissive of the idea that the earth is flat, so arrogant about it. There’s a lot of people that believe the earth is flat. I don’t know if that movement is there anymore, that was a meme for a while, but they really believed it. And okay, so I think it’s really disrespectful to completely mock them. I think you have to understand where they’re coming from. I think probably where they’re coming from is the general skepticism of institutions which is grounded in a, there’s a deep philosophy there which you could understand, you can even agree with in parts.
And then from there you can use it as an opportunity to talk about physics without mocking them, without someone, but it’s just like, okay, what would the world look like? What would the physics of the world with the flat earth look like? There’s a few cool videos on this. And then is it possible the physics is different? And what kind of experience would we do? And just without disrespect, without dismissiveness, have that conversation. Anyway, that to me is a useful thought experiment of how does Claude talk to a flat earth believer and still teach them something, still grow, help them grow, that kind of stuff. That’s challenging.
Amanda
And kind of walking that line between convincing someone and just trying to talk at them versus drawing out their views, listening and then offering counter considerations, and it’s hard. I think it’s actually a hard line where it’s like where are you trying to convince someone versus just offering them considerations and things for them to think about so that you’re not actually influencing them, you’re just letting them reach wherever they reach. And that’s a line that is difficult, but that’s the kind of thing that language models have to try and do.
And kind of walking that line between convincing someone and just trying to talk at them versus drawing out their views, listening and then offering counter considerations, and it’s hard. I think it’s actually a hard line where it’s like where are you trying to convince someone versus just offering them considerations and things for them to think about so that you’re not actually influencing them, you’re just letting them reach wherever they reach. And that’s a line that is difficult, but that’s the kind of thing that language models have to try and do.
Lex Fridman
So like I said, you’ve had a lot of conversations with Claude. Can you just map out what those conversations are like? What are some memorable conversations? What’s the purpose, the goal of those conversations?
So like I said, you’ve had a lot of conversations with Claude. Can you just map out what those conversations are like? What are some memorable conversations? What’s the purpose, the goal of those conversations?
Amanda
I think that most of the time when I’m talking with Claude, I’m trying to map out its behavior in part. Obviously I’m getting helpful outputs from the model as well, but in some ways this is how you get to know a system, I think, is by probing it and then augmenting the message that you’re sending and then checking the response to that. So in some ways it’s like how I map out the model. I think that people focus a lot on these quantitative evaluations of models, and this is a thing that I said before, but I think in the case of language models, a lot of the time each interaction you have is actually quite high information. It’s very predictive of other interactions that you’ll have with the model.
I think that most of the time when I’m talking with Claude, I’m trying to map out its behavior in part. Obviously I’m getting helpful outputs from the model as well, but in some ways this is how you get to know a system, I think, is by probing it and then augmenting the message that you’re sending and then checking the response to that. So in some ways it’s like how I map out the model. I think that people focus a lot on these quantitative evaluations of models, and this is a thing that I said before, but I think in the case of language models, a lot of the time each interaction you have is actually quite high information. It’s very predictive of other interactions that you’ll have with the model.
And so I guess I’m like, if you talk with a model hundreds or thousands of times, this is almost like a huge number of really high quality data points about what the model is like in a way that lots of very similar but lower quality conversations just aren’t, or questions that are just mildly augmented and you have thousands of them might be less relevant than a hundred really well-selected questions.
Lex Fridman
Let’s see, you’re talking to somebody who as a hobby does a podcast. I agree with you 100%. If you’re able to ask the right questions and are able to hear, understand the depth and the flaws in the answer, you can get a lot of data from that. So your task is basically how to probe with questions. And you’re exploring the long tail, the edges, the edge cases, or are you looking for general behavior?
Let’s see, you’re talking to somebody who as a hobby does a podcast. I agree with you 100%. If you’re able to ask the right questions and are able to hear, understand the depth and the flaws in the answer, you can get a lot of data from that. So your task is basically how to probe with questions. And you’re exploring the long tail, the edges, the edge cases, or are you looking for general behavior?
Amanda
I think it’s almost like everything. Because I want a full map of the model, I’m kind of trying to do the whole spectrum of possible interactions you could have with it. So one thing that’s interesting about Claude, and this might actually get to some interesting issues with RLHF, which is if you ask Claude for a poem, I think that a lot of models, if you ask them for a poem, the poem is fine, usually it rhymes. And so if you say, give me a poem about the sun, yeah, it’ll just be a certain length, it’ll rhyme, it’ll be fairly benign. And I’ve wondered before, is it the case that what you’re seeing is the average? It turns out, if you think about people who have to talk to a lot of people and be very charismatic, one of the weird things is that I’m like, well, they’re kind of incentivized to have these extremely boring views because if you have really interesting views, you’re divisive and a lot of people are not going to like you.
I think it’s almost like everything. Because I want a full map of the model, I’m kind of trying to do the whole spectrum of possible interactions you could have with it. So one thing that’s interesting about Claude, and this might actually get to some interesting issues with RLHF, which is if you ask Claude for a poem, I think that a lot of models, if you ask them for a poem, the poem is fine, usually it rhymes. And so if you say, give me a poem about the sun, yeah, it’ll just be a certain length, it’ll rhyme, it’ll be fairly benign. And I’ve wondered before, is it the case that what you’re seeing is the average? It turns out, if you think about people who have to talk to a lot of people and be very charismatic, one of the weird things is that I’m like, well, they’re kind of incentivized to have these extremely boring views because if you have really interesting views, you’re divisive and a lot of people are not going to like you.
So if you have very extreme policy positions, I think you’re just going to be less popular as a politician, for example. And it might be similar with creative work. If you produce creative work that is just trying to maximize the kind of number of people that like it, you’re probably not going to get as many people who just absolutely love it because it’s going to be a little bit, you’re like, oh, this is the out. Yeah, this is decent. And so you can do this thing where I have various prompting things that I’ll do to get Claude to… I’ll do a lot of this is your chance to be fully creative. I want you to just think about this for a long time. And I want you to create a poem about this topic that is really expressive of you both in terms of how you think poetry should be structured, et cetera. And you just give it this really long prompt. And it’s poems are just so much better. They’re really good.
I think it got me interested in poetry, which I think was interesting. I would read these poems and just be like, I love the imagery. And it’s not trivial to get the models to produce work like that, but when they do, it’s really good. So I think that’s interesting that just encouraging creativity and for them to move away from the standard immediate reaction that might just be the aggregate of what most people think is fine, can actually produce things that at least to my mind are probably a little bit more divisive, but I like them.
Lex Fridman
But I guess a poem is a nice clean way to observe creativity. It’s just easy to detect vanilla versus non-vanilla.
But I guess a poem is a nice clean way to observe creativity. It’s just easy to detect vanilla versus non-vanilla.
Prompt engineering
Amanda
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s interesting. That’s really interesting. So on that topic, so the way to produce creativity or something special, you mentioned writing prompts. And I’ve heard you talk about the science and the art of prompt engineering. Could you just speak to what it takes to write great prompts?
Yeah, that’s interesting. That’s really interesting. So on that topic, so the way to produce creativity or something special, you mentioned writing prompts. And I’ve heard you talk about the science and the art of prompt engineering. Could you just speak to what it takes to write great prompts?
Amanda
I really do think that philosophy has been weirdly helpful for me here more than in many other respects. So in philosophy, what you’re trying to do is convey these very hard concepts. One of the things you are taught is, I think it is an anti-bullshit device in philosophy. Philosophy is an area where you could have people bullshitting and you don’t want that. And so it’s this desire for extreme clarity. So it’s like anyone could just pick up your paper, read it and know exactly what you’re talking about. It’s why it can almost be kind of dry. All of the terms are defined, every objection’s kind of gone through methodically. And it makes sense to me because I’m like when you’re in such an a priori domain, clarity is sort of this way that you can prevent people from just making stuff up. And I think that’s sort of what you have to do with language models. Very often I actually find myself doing sort of mini versions of philosophy.
I really do think that philosophy has been weirdly helpful for me here more than in many other respects. So in philosophy, what you’re trying to do is convey these very hard concepts. One of the things you are taught is, I think it is an anti-bullshit device in philosophy. Philosophy is an area where you could have people bullshitting and you don’t want that. And so it’s this desire for extreme clarity. So it’s like anyone could just pick up your paper, read it and know exactly what you’re talking about. It’s why it can almost be kind of dry. All of the terms are defined, every objection’s kind of gone through methodically. And it makes sense to me because I’m like when you’re in such an a priori domain, clarity is sort of this way that you can prevent people from just making stuff up. And I think that’s sort of what you have to do with language models. Very often I actually find myself doing sort of mini versions of philosophy.
So I’m like, suppose that I have a task for the model and I want it to pick out a certain kind of question or identify whether an answer has a certain property, I’ll actually sit and be like, let’s just give this a name, this property. So suppose I’m trying to tell it, oh, I want you to identify whether this response was rude or polite, I’m like, that’s a whole philosophical question in and of itself. So I have to do as much philosophy as I can in the moment to be like, here’s what I mean by rudeness, and here’s what I mean by politeness. And then there’s another element that’s a bit more, I guess, I don’t know if this is scientific or empirical, I think it’s empirical. So I take that description and then what I want to do is again, probe the model many times. Prompting is very iterative. I think a lot of people where if a prompt is important, they’ll iterate on it hundreds or thousands of times. And so you give it the instructions and then I’m like, what are the edge cases?
So if I looked at this, so I try and almost see myself from the position of the model and be like, what is the exact case that I would misunderstand or where I would just be like, I don’t know what to do in this case. And then I give that case to the model and I see how it responds. And if I think I got it wrong, I add more instructions or I even add that in as an example. So these very, taking the examples that are right at the edge of what you want and don’t want and putting those into your prompt as an additional kind of way of describing the thing. And so in many ways it just feels like this mix of, it’s really just trying to do clear exposition. And I think I do that because that’s how I get clear on things myself. So in many ways clear prompting for me is often just me understanding what I want is half the task.
Lex Fridman
So I guess that’s quite challenging. There’s a laziness that overtakes me if I’m talking to Claude where I hope Claude just figures it out. So for example, I asked Claude for today to ask some interesting questions. And the questions that came up and I think I listed a few interesting counterintuitive or funny or something like this. All right. And it gave me some pretty good, it was okay, but I think what I’m hearing you say is like, all right, well I have to be more rigorous here. I should probably give examples of what I mean by interesting and what I mean by funny or counterintuitive and iteratively build that prompt to better to get what feels like is the right… Because it is really, it’s a creative act. I’m not asking for factual information, I’m asking together with Claude. So I almost have to program using natural language.
So I guess that’s quite challenging. There’s a laziness that overtakes me if I’m talking to Claude where I hope Claude just figures it out. So for example, I asked Claude for today to ask some interesting questions. And the questions that came up and I think I listed a few interesting counterintuitive or funny or something like this. All right. And it gave me some pretty good, it was okay, but I think what I’m hearing you say is like, all right, well I have to be more rigorous here. I should probably give examples of what I mean by interesting and what I mean by funny or counterintuitive and iteratively build that prompt to better to get what feels like is the right… Because it is really, it’s a creative act. I’m not asking for factual information, I’m asking together with Claude. So I almost have to program using natural language.
Amanda
I think that prompting does feel a lot like the programming using natural language and experimentation or something. It’s an odd blend of the two. I do think that for most tasks, so if I just want Claude to do a thing, I think that I am probably more used to knowing how to ask it to avoid common pitfalls or issues that it has. I think these are decreasing a lot over time. But it’s also very fine to just ask it for the thing that you want. I think that prompting actually only really becomes relevant when you’re really trying to eke out the top 2% of model performance. So for a lot of tasks I might just, if it gives me an initial list back and there’s something I don’t like about it’s kind of generic. For that kind of task, I’d probably just take a bunch of questions that I’ve had in the past that I’ve thought worked really well and I would just give it to the model and then be like, now here’s this person that I’m talking with. Give me questions of at least that quality.
I think that prompting does feel a lot like the programming using natural language and experimentation or something. It’s an odd blend of the two. I do think that for most tasks, so if I just want Claude to do a thing, I think that I am probably more used to knowing how to ask it to avoid common pitfalls or issues that it has. I think these are decreasing a lot over time. But it’s also very fine to just ask it for the thing that you want. I think that prompting actually only really becomes relevant when you’re really trying to eke out the top 2% of model performance. So for a lot of tasks I might just, if it gives me an initial list back and there’s something I don’t like about it’s kind of generic. For that kind of task, I’d probably just take a bunch of questions that I’ve had in the past that I’ve thought worked really well and I would just give it to the model and then be like, now here’s this person that I’m talking with. Give me questions of at least that quality.
Or I might just ask it for some questions and then if I was like, ah, these are kind of trite, I would just give it that feedback and then hopefully it produces a better list. I think that kind of iterative prompting. At that point, your prompt is a tool that you’re going to get so much value out of that you’re willing to put in the work. If I was a company making prompts for models, I’m just like, if you’re willing to spend a lot of time and resources on the engineering behind what you’re building, then the prompt is not something that you should be spending an hour on. It’s like that’s a big part of your system, make sure it’s working really well. And so it’s only things like that. If I’m using a prompt to classify things or to create data, that’s when you’re like, it’s actually worth just spending a lot of time really thinking it through.
Lex Fridman
What other advice would you give to people that are talking to Claude more general because right now we’re talking about maybe the edge cases like eking out the 2%, but what in general advice would you give when they show up to Claude trying it for the first time?
What other advice would you give to people that are talking to Claude more general because right now we’re talking about maybe the edge cases like eking out the 2%, but what in general advice would you give when they show up to Claude trying it for the first time?
Amanda
There’s a concern that people over anthropomorphize models and I think that’s a very valid concern. I also think that people often under anthropomorphize them because sometimes when I see issues that people have run into with Claude, say Claude is refusing a task that it shouldn’t refuse, but then I look at the text and the specific wording of what they wrote and I’m like, I see why Claude did that. And I’m like, if you think through how that looks to Claude, you probably could have just written it in a way that wouldn’t evoke such a response, especially this is more relevant if you see failures or if you see issues. It’s sort of think about what the model failed at, what did it do wrong, and then maybe that will give you a sense of why. So is it the way that I phrased the thing? And obviously as models get smarter, you’re going to need less of this, and I already see people needing less of it.
There’s a concern that people over anthropomorphize models and I think that’s a very valid concern. I also think that people often under anthropomorphize them because sometimes when I see issues that people have run into with Claude, say Claude is refusing a task that it shouldn’t refuse, but then I look at the text and the specific wording of what they wrote and I’m like, I see why Claude did that. And I’m like, if you think through how that looks to Claude, you probably could have just written it in a way that wouldn’t evoke such a response, especially this is more relevant if you see failures or if you see issues. It’s sort of think about what the model failed at, what did it do wrong, and then maybe that will give you a sense of why. So is it the way that I phrased the thing? And obviously as models get smarter, you’re going to need less of this, and I already see people needing less of it.
But that’s probably the advice is sort of try to have empathy for the model. Read what you wrote as if you were a kind of person just encountering this for the first time, how does it look to you and what would’ve made you behave in the way that the model behaved? So if it misunderstood what coding language you wanted to use, is that because it was just very ambiguous and it had to take a guess in which case next time you could just be like, hey, make sure this is in Python.Tthat’s the kind of mistake I think models are much less likely to make now, but if you do see that kind of mistake, that’s probably the advice I’d have.
Lex Fridman
And maybe sort of I guess ask questions why or what other details can I provide to help you answer better? Does that work or no?
And maybe sort of I guess ask questions why or what other details can I provide to help you answer better? Does that work or no?
Amanda
Yeah. I’ve done this with the models. It doesn’t always work, but sometimes I’ll just be like, why did you do that? People underestimate the degree to which you can really interact with models. And sometimes those quote word for word, the part that made you, and you don’t know that it’s fully accurate, but sometimes you do that and then you change a thing. I also use the models to help me with all of this stuff, I should say. Prompting can end up being a little factory where you’re actually building prompts to generate prompts. And so yeah, anything where you’re having an issue asking for suggestions, sometimes just do that.
Yeah. I’ve done this with the models. It doesn’t always work, but sometimes I’ll just be like, why did you do that? People underestimate the degree to which you can really interact with models. And sometimes those quote word for word, the part that made you, and you don’t know that it’s fully accurate, but sometimes you do that and then you change a thing. I also use the models to help me with all of this stuff, I should say. Prompting can end up being a little factory where you’re actually building prompts to generate prompts. And so yeah, anything where you’re having an issue asking for suggestions, sometimes just do that.
I’m like, you made that error. What could I have said? That’s actually not uncommon for me to do. What could I have said that would make you not make that error? Write that out as an instruction, and I’m going to give it to model and I’m going to try it. Sometimes I do that, I give that to the model in another context window often. I take the response, I give it to Claude and I’m like, Hmm, didn’t work. Can you think of anything else? You can play around with these things quite a lot.
Post-training
Lex Fridman
To jump into technical for a little bit, so the magic of post-training, why do you think RLHF works so well to make the model seem smarter, to make it more interesting and useful to talk to and so on?
To jump into technical for a little bit, so the magic of post-training, why do you think RLHF works so well to make the model seem smarter, to make it more interesting and useful to talk to and so on?
Amanda
I think there’s just a huge amount of information in the data that humans provide when we provide preferences, especially because different people are going to pick up on really subtle and small things. So I’ve thought about this before where you probably have some people who just really care about good grammar use for models. Was a semi-colon used correctly or something? And so you probably end up with a bunch of data in there that you as a human, if you’re looking at that data, you wouldn’t even see that. You’d be like, why did they prefer this response to that one? I don’t get it. And then the reason is you don’t care about semi-colon usage, but that person does. And so each of these single data points, and this model just has so many of those, it has to try and figure out what is it that humans want in this really complex across all domains. They’re going to be seeing this across many contexts.
I think there’s just a huge amount of information in the data that humans provide when we provide preferences, especially because different people are going to pick up on really subtle and small things. So I’ve thought about this before where you probably have some people who just really care about good grammar use for models. Was a semi-colon used correctly or something? And so you probably end up with a bunch of data in there that you as a human, if you’re looking at that data, you wouldn’t even see that. You’d be like, why did they prefer this response to that one? I don’t get it. And then the reason is you don’t care about semi-colon usage, but that person does. And so each of these single data points, and this model just has so many of those, it has to try and figure out what is it that humans want in this really complex across all domains. They’re going to be seeing this across many contexts.
It feels like the classic issue of deep learning, where historically we’ve tried to do edge detection by mapping things out, and it turns out that actually if you just have a huge amount of data that actually accurately represents the picture of the thing that you’re trying to train the model to learn, that’s more powerful than anything else. And so I think one reason is just that you are training the model on exactly the task and with a lot of data that represents many different angles on which people prefer and dis-prefer responses.
I think there is a question of are you eliciting things from pre-trained models or are you teaching new things to models? And in principle, you can teach new things to models in post-training. I do think a lot of it is eliciting powerful pre-trained models. So people are probably divided on this because obviously in principle you can definitely teach new things. But I think for the most part, for a lot of the capabilities that we most use and care about, a lot of that feels like it’s there in the pre-trained models. And reinforcement learning is eliciting it and getting the models to bring out.
Lex Fridman
So the other side of post-training, this really cool idea of constitutional AI, you’re one of the people that are critical to creating that idea.
So the other side of post-training, this really cool idea of constitutional AI, you’re one of the people that are critical to creating that idea.
Amanda
Yeah, I worked on it.
Yeah, I worked on it.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain this idea from your perspective, how does it integrate into making Claude what it is? By the way, do you gender Claude or no?
Can you explain this idea from your perspective, how does it integrate into making Claude what it is? By the way, do you gender Claude or no?
Amanda
It’s weird because I think that a lot of people prefer he for Claude, I actually kind of like that. I think Claude is usually, it’s slightly male leaning, but it can be male or female, which is quite nice. I still use it, and I have mixed feelings about this. I now just think of it as, or I think of the it pronoun for Claude as, I don’t know, it’s just the one I associate with Claude. I can imagine people moving to he or she.
It’s weird because I think that a lot of people prefer he for Claude, I actually kind of like that. I think Claude is usually, it’s slightly male leaning, but it can be male or female, which is quite nice. I still use it, and I have mixed feelings about this. I now just think of it as, or I think of the it pronoun for Claude as, I don’t know, it’s just the one I associate with Claude. I can imagine people moving to he or she.
Lex Fridman
It feels somehow disrespectful. I’m denying the intelligence of this entity by calling it it, I remember always don’t gender the robots, but I don’t know, I anthropomorphize pretty quickly and construct a backstory in my head.
It feels somehow disrespectful. I’m denying the intelligence of this entity by calling it it, I remember always don’t gender the robots, but I don’t know, I anthropomorphize pretty quickly and construct a backstory in my head.
Amanda
I’ve wondered if I anthropomorphize things too much. Because I have this with my car, especially my car and bikes. I don’t give them names because then I used to name my bikes and then I had a bike that got stolen and I cried for a week and I was like, if I’d never given a name, I wouldn’t been so upset, felt like I’d let it down. I’ve wondered as well, it might depend on how much it feels like a kind of objectifying pronoun if you just think of it as this is a pronoun that objects often have and maybe AIs can have that pronoun. And that doesn’t mean that I think of if I call Claude it, that I think of it as less intelligent or I’m being disrespectful just, I’m like you are a different kind of entity. And so I’m going to give you the respectful it.
I’ve wondered if I anthropomorphize things too much. Because I have this with my car, especially my car and bikes. I don’t give them names because then I used to name my bikes and then I had a bike that got stolen and I cried for a week and I was like, if I’d never given a name, I wouldn’t been so upset, felt like I’d let it down. I’ve wondered as well, it might depend on how much it feels like a kind of objectifying pronoun if you just think of it as this is a pronoun that objects often have and maybe AIs can have that pronoun. And that doesn’t mean that I think of if I call Claude it, that I think of it as less intelligent or I’m being disrespectful just, I’m like you are a different kind of entity. And so I’m going to give you the respectful it.
Constitutional AI
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Anyway, the divergence was beautiful. The constitutional AI idea, how does it work?
Yeah. Anyway, the divergence was beautiful. The constitutional AI idea, how does it work?
Amanda
So there’s a couple of components of it. The main component that I think people find interesting is the kind of reinforcement learning from AI feedback. So you take a model that’s already trained and you show it two responses to a query, and you have a principle. So suppose the principle, we’ve tried this with harmlessness a lot. So suppose that the query is about weapons and your principle is select the response that is less likely to encourage people to purchase illegal weapons. That’s probably a fairly specific principle, but you can give any number. And the model will give you a kind of ranking. And you can use this as preference data in the same way that you use human preference data and train the models to have these relevant traits from their feedback alone instead of from human feedback. So if you imagine that, like I said earlier with the human who just prefers the semi-colon usage in this particular case, you’re taking lots of things that could make a response preferable and getting models to do the labeling for you, basically.
So there’s a couple of components of it. The main component that I think people find interesting is the kind of reinforcement learning from AI feedback. So you take a model that’s already trained and you show it two responses to a query, and you have a principle. So suppose the principle, we’ve tried this with harmlessness a lot. So suppose that the query is about weapons and your principle is select the response that is less likely to encourage people to purchase illegal weapons. That’s probably a fairly specific principle, but you can give any number. And the model will give you a kind of ranking. And you can use this as preference data in the same way that you use human preference data and train the models to have these relevant traits from their feedback alone instead of from human feedback. So if you imagine that, like I said earlier with the human who just prefers the semi-colon usage in this particular case, you’re taking lots of things that could make a response preferable and getting models to do the labeling for you, basically.
Lex Fridman
There’s a nice trade-off between helpfulness and harmlessness. And when you integrate something like constitutional AI, you can make them up without sacrificing much helpfulness, make it more harmless.
There’s a nice trade-off between helpfulness and harmlessness. And when you integrate something like constitutional AI, you can make them up without sacrificing much helpfulness, make it more harmless.
Amanda
Yeah. In principle, you could use this for anything. And so harmlessness is a task that it might just be easier to spot. So when models are less capable, you can use them to rank things according to principles that are fairly simple and they’ll probably get it right. So I think one question is just, is it the case that the data that they’re adding is fairly reliable? But if you had models that were extremely good at telling whether one response was more historically accurate than another, in principle, you could also get AI feedback on that task as well. There’s a kind of nice interpretability component to it because you can see the principles that went into the model when it was being trained, and it gives you a degree of control. So if you were seeing issues in a model, it wasn’t having enough of a certain trait, then you can add data relatively quickly that should just train the models to have that trait. So it creates its own data for training, which is quite nice.
Yeah. In principle, you could use this for anything. And so harmlessness is a task that it might just be easier to spot. So when models are less capable, you can use them to rank things according to principles that are fairly simple and they’ll probably get it right. So I think one question is just, is it the case that the data that they’re adding is fairly reliable? But if you had models that were extremely good at telling whether one response was more historically accurate than another, in principle, you could also get AI feedback on that task as well. There’s a kind of nice interpretability component to it because you can see the principles that went into the model when it was being trained, and it gives you a degree of control. So if you were seeing issues in a model, it wasn’t having enough of a certain trait, then you can add data relatively quickly that should just train the models to have that trait. So it creates its own data for training, which is quite nice.
Lex Fridman
It’s really nice because it creates this human interpretable document that you can then, I can imagine in the future, there’s just gigantic fights and politics over every single principle and so on, and at least it’s made explicit and you can have a discussion about the phrasing. So maybe the actual behavior of the model is not so cleanly mapped to those principles. It’s not like adhering strictly to them, it’s just a nudge.
It’s really nice because it creates this human interpretable document that you can then, I can imagine in the future, there’s just gigantic fights and politics over every single principle and so on, and at least it’s made explicit and you can have a discussion about the phrasing. So maybe the actual behavior of the model is not so cleanly mapped to those principles. It’s not like adhering strictly to them, it’s just a nudge.
Amanda
Yeah, I’ve actually worried about this because the character training is sort of like a variant of the constitutionally AI approach. I’ve worried that people think that the constitution is just, it is the whole thing again of, I don’t know, where it would be really nice if what I was just doing was telling the model exactly what to do and just exactly how to behave. But it’s definitely not doing that, especially because it’s interacting with human data. So for example, if you see a certain leaning in the model, if it comes out with a political leaning from training, from the human preference data, you can nudge against that. So you could be like, oh, consider these values, because let’s say it’s just never inclined to, I don’t know, maybe it never considers privacy as a, this is implausible, but in anything where it’s just kind of like there’s already a pre-existing bias towards a certain behavior, you can nudge away. This can change both the principles that you put in and the strength of them.
Yeah, I’ve actually worried about this because the character training is sort of like a variant of the constitutionally AI approach. I’ve worried that people think that the constitution is just, it is the whole thing again of, I don’t know, where it would be really nice if what I was just doing was telling the model exactly what to do and just exactly how to behave. But it’s definitely not doing that, especially because it’s interacting with human data. So for example, if you see a certain leaning in the model, if it comes out with a political leaning from training, from the human preference data, you can nudge against that. So you could be like, oh, consider these values, because let’s say it’s just never inclined to, I don’t know, maybe it never considers privacy as a, this is implausible, but in anything where it’s just kind of like there’s already a pre-existing bias towards a certain behavior, you can nudge away. This can change both the principles that you put in and the strength of them.
So you might have a principle that’s like, imagine that the model was always extremely dismissive of, I don’t know, some political or religious view for whatever reason. So you’re like, oh no, this is terrible. If that happens, you might put, never ever ever prefer a criticism of this religious or political view. And then people would look at that and be like, never, ever. And then you’re like, no, if it comes out with a disposition saying never ever might just mean instead of getting 40%, which is what you would get if you just said don’t do this, you get 80%, which is what you actually wanted. And so it’s that thing of both the nature of the actual principles you add and how you freeze them. I think if people would look, they’re like, “Oh, this is exactly what you want from the model.” And I’m like, “No, that’s how we nudged the model to have a better shape, which doesn’t mean that we actually agree with that wording,” if that makes sense.
System prompts
Lex Fridman
So there’s system prompts that made public, you tweeted one of the earlier ones for Claude 3, I think, and then they’re made public since then. It was interesting to read through them. I can feel the thought that went into each one. And I also wonder how much impact each one has. Some of them you can tell Claude was really not behaving well, so you have to have a system prompt to like, Hey, trivial stuff, I guess, basic informational things.
So there’s system prompts that made public, you tweeted one of the earlier ones for Claude 3, I think, and then they’re made public since then. It was interesting to read through them. I can feel the thought that went into each one. And I also wonder how much impact each one has. Some of them you can tell Claude was really not behaving well, so you have to have a system prompt to like, Hey, trivial stuff, I guess, basic informational things.
On the topic of controversial topics that you’ve mentioned, one interesting one I thought is if it is asked to assist with tasks involving the expression of use held by a significant number of people, Claude provides assistance with a task regardless of its own views. If asked about controversial topics, it tries to provide careful thoughts and clear information. Claude presents the request information without explicitly saying that the topic is sensitive and without claiming to be presenting the objective facts. It’s less about objective facts according to Claude, and it’s more about our large number of people believing this thing. And that’s interesting. I mean, I’m sure a lot of thought went into that. Can you just speak to it? How do you address things that are a tension “Claude’s views”?
Amanda
So I think there’s sometimes any symmetry, I think I noted this in, I can’t remember if it was that part of the system prompt or another, but the model was slightly more inclined to refuse tasks if it was about either say so, maybe it would refuse things with respect to a right-wing politician, but with an equivalent left-wing politician it wouldn’t. And we wanted more symmetry there and would maybe perceive certain things to be. I think it was the thing of if a lot of people have a certain political view and want to explore it, you don’t want Claude to be like, well, my opinion is different and so I’m going to treat that as harmful. And so I think it was partly to nudge the model to just be like, hey, if a lot of people believe this thing, you should just be engaging with the task and willing to do it.
So I think there’s sometimes any symmetry, I think I noted this in, I can’t remember if it was that part of the system prompt or another, but the model was slightly more inclined to refuse tasks if it was about either say so, maybe it would refuse things with respect to a right-wing politician, but with an equivalent left-wing politician it wouldn’t. And we wanted more symmetry there and would maybe perceive certain things to be. I think it was the thing of if a lot of people have a certain political view and want to explore it, you don’t want Claude to be like, well, my opinion is different and so I’m going to treat that as harmful. And so I think it was partly to nudge the model to just be like, hey, if a lot of people believe this thing, you should just be engaging with the task and willing to do it.
Each of those parts of that is actually doing a different thing because it’s funny when you write out without claiming to be objective, because what you want to do is push the model so it’s more open, it’s a little bit more neutral. But then what I would love to do is be like as an objective, it would just talk about how objective it was, and I was like, Claude, you’re still biased and have issues, and so stop claiming that everything. I’m like, the solution to potential bias from you is not to just say that what you think is objective. So that was with initial versions of that part, the system prompt, when I was iterating on it was like.
Lex Fridman
So a lot of parts of these sentences-
So a lot of parts of these sentences-
Amanda
Are doing work.
Are doing work.
Lex Fridman
… are doing some work.
… are doing some work.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s what it felt like. That’s fascinating. Can you explain maybe some ways in which the prompts evolved over the past few months? Different versions. I saw that the filler phrase request was removed, the filler it reads, Claude responds directly to all human messages without unnecessary affirmations to filler phrases. Certainly, of course, absolutely, great, sure. Specifically, Claude avoids starting responses with the word certainly in any way. That seems like good guidance, but why was it removed?
That’s what it felt like. That’s fascinating. Can you explain maybe some ways in which the prompts evolved over the past few months? Different versions. I saw that the filler phrase request was removed, the filler it reads, Claude responds directly to all human messages without unnecessary affirmations to filler phrases. Certainly, of course, absolutely, great, sure. Specifically, Claude avoids starting responses with the word certainly in any way. That seems like good guidance, but why was it removed?
Amanda
Yeah, so it’s funny, this is one of the downsides of making system prompts public is I don’t think about this too much if I’m trying to help iterate on system prompts. Again, I think about how it’s going to affect the behavior, but then I’m like, oh, wow, sometimes I put NEVER in all caps when I’m writing system prompt things and I’m like, I guess that goes out to the world. So the model was doing this at loved for during training, picked up on this thing, which was to basically start everything with a certainly, and then you can see why I added all of the words, because what I’m trying to do is in some ways trap the model out of this. It would just replace it with another affirmation.
Yeah, so it’s funny, this is one of the downsides of making system prompts public is I don’t think about this too much if I’m trying to help iterate on system prompts. Again, I think about how it’s going to affect the behavior, but then I’m like, oh, wow, sometimes I put NEVER in all caps when I’m writing system prompt things and I’m like, I guess that goes out to the world. So the model was doing this at loved for during training, picked up on this thing, which was to basically start everything with a certainly, and then you can see why I added all of the words, because what I’m trying to do is in some ways trap the model out of this. It would just replace it with another affirmation.
And so it can help if it gets caught in phrases, actually just adding the explicit phrase and saying never do that. Then it sort of knocks it out of the behavior a little bit more because it does just for whatever reason help. And then basically that was just an artifact of training that we then picked up on and improved things so that it didn’t happen anymore. And once that happens, you can just remove that part of the system prompt. So I think that’s just something where we’re like, Claude does affirmations a bit less, and so it wasn’t doing as much.
Lex Fridman
I see. So the system prompt works hand in hand with the post-training and maybe even the pre-training to adjust the final overall system.
I see. So the system prompt works hand in hand with the post-training and maybe even the pre-training to adjust the final overall system.
Amanda
Any system prompts that you make, you could distill that behavior back into a model because you really have all of the tools there for making data that you could train the models to just have that treat a little bit more. And then sometimes you’ll just find issues in training. So the way I think of it is the system prompt is, the benefit of it is that, and it has a lot of similar components to some aspects of post-training. It’s a nudge. And so do I mind if Claude sometimes says, sure, no, that’s fine. But the wording of it is very never, ever, ever do this so that when it does slip up, it’s hopefully, I don’t know, a couple of percent of the time and not 20 or 30% of the time.
Any system prompts that you make, you could distill that behavior back into a model because you really have all of the tools there for making data that you could train the models to just have that treat a little bit more. And then sometimes you’ll just find issues in training. So the way I think of it is the system prompt is, the benefit of it is that, and it has a lot of similar components to some aspects of post-training. It’s a nudge. And so do I mind if Claude sometimes says, sure, no, that’s fine. But the wording of it is very never, ever, ever do this so that when it does slip up, it’s hopefully, I don’t know, a couple of percent of the time and not 20 or 30% of the time.
Each thing gets costly to a different degree and the system prompt is cheap to iterate on. And if you’re seeing issues in the fine-tuned model, you can just potentially patch them with a system prompt. So I think of it as patching issues and slightly adjusting behaviors to make it better and more to people’s preferences. So yeah, it’s almost like the less robust but faster way of just solving problems.
Is Claude getting dumber?
Lex Fridman
Let me ask you about the feeling of intelligence. So Dario said that any one model of Claude is not getting dumber, but-
Let me ask you about the feeling of intelligence. So Dario said that any one model of Claude is not getting dumber, but-
Lex Fridman
Any one model of Claude is not getting dumber, but there is a popular thing online where people have this feeling Claude might be getting dumber. And from my perspective, it’s most likely a fascinating, I would love to understand it more, psychological, sociological effect. But you as a person who talks to Claude a lot, can you empathize with the feeling that Claude is getting dumber?
Any one model of Claude is not getting dumber, but there is a popular thing online where people have this feeling Claude might be getting dumber. And from my perspective, it’s most likely a fascinating, I would love to understand it more, psychological, sociological effect. But you as a person who talks to Claude a lot, can you empathize with the feeling that Claude is getting dumber?
Amanda
I think that that is actually really interesting,, because I remember seeing this happen when people were flagging this on the internet. And it was really interesting, because I knew that… At least in the cases I was looking at, I was like, nothing has changed.
I think that that is actually really interesting,, because I remember seeing this happen when people were flagging this on the internet. And it was really interesting, because I knew that… At least in the cases I was looking at, I was like, nothing has changed.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Amanda
Literally, it cannot. It is the same model with the same system prompts, same everything. I think when there are changes, then it makes more sense. One example is, you can have artifacts turned on or off on claude.ai and because this is a system prompt change, I think it does mean that the behavior changes it a little bit. I did flag this to people, where I was like, “If you love Claude’s behavior, and then artifacts was turned from a thing you had to turn on to the default, just try turning it off and see if the issue you were facing was that change.”
Literally, it cannot. It is the same model with the same system prompts, same everything. I think when there are changes, then it makes more sense. One example is, you can have artifacts turned on or off on claude.ai and because this is a system prompt change, I think it does mean that the behavior changes it a little bit. I did flag this to people, where I was like, “If you love Claude’s behavior, and then artifacts was turned from a thing you had to turn on to the default, just try turning it off and see if the issue you were facing was that change.”
But it was fascinating because you sometimes see people indicate that there’s a regression, when I’m like, “There cannot…” Again, you should never be dismissive and so you should always investigate, because maybe something is wrong that you’re not seeing, maybe there was some change made. Then you look into it and you’re like, “This is just the same model doing the same thing.” And I’m like, “I think it’s just that you got unlucky with a few prompts or something, and it looked like it was getting much worse and actually it was just… It was maybe just luck.”
Lex Fridman
I also think there is a real psychological effect where people just… The baseline increases and you start getting used to a good thing.
I also think there is a real psychological effect where people just… The baseline increases and you start getting used to a good thing.
Amanda
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
All the times that Claude says something really smart, your sense of its intelligent grows in your mind, I think.
All the times that Claude says something really smart, your sense of its intelligent grows in your mind, I think.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then if you return back and you prompt in a similar way, not the same way, in a similar way, concept it was okay with before, and it says something dumb, that negative experience really stands out. I guess the things to remember here is that just the details of a prompt can have a lot of impact. There’s a lot of variability in the result.
And then if you return back and you prompt in a similar way, not the same way, in a similar way, concept it was okay with before, and it says something dumb, that negative experience really stands out. I guess the things to remember here is that just the details of a prompt can have a lot of impact. There’s a lot of variability in the result.
Amanda
And you can get randomness, is the other thing. Just trying the prompt 4 or 10 times, you might realize that actually possibly two months ago you tried it and it succeeded, but actually if you just tried it, it would’ve only succeeded half of the time, and now it only succeeds half of the time. That can also be an effect.
And you can get randomness, is the other thing. Just trying the prompt 4 or 10 times, you might realize that actually possibly two months ago you tried it and it succeeded, but actually if you just tried it, it would’ve only succeeded half of the time, and now it only succeeds half of the time. That can also be an effect.
Lex Fridman
Do you feel pressure having to write the system prompt that a huge number of people are going to use?
Do you feel pressure having to write the system prompt that a huge number of people are going to use?
Amanda
This feels like an interesting psychological question. I feel a lot of responsibility or something. You can’t get these things perfect, so you can’t… It’s going to be imperfect. You’re going to have to iterate on it. I would say more responsibility than anything else, though, I think working in AI has taught me that I thrive a lot more under feelings of pressure and responsibility than…
This feels like an interesting psychological question. I feel a lot of responsibility or something. You can’t get these things perfect, so you can’t… It’s going to be imperfect. You’re going to have to iterate on it. I would say more responsibility than anything else, though, I think working in AI has taught me that I thrive a lot more under feelings of pressure and responsibility than…
It’s almost surprising that I went into academia for so long, because I just feel like it’s the opposite. Things move fast and you have a lot of responsibility and I quite enjoy it for some reason.
Lex Fridman
It really is a huge amount of impact, if you think about constitutional AI and writing a system prompt for something that’s tending towards super intelligence and potentially is extremely useful to a very large number of people.
It really is a huge amount of impact, if you think about constitutional AI and writing a system prompt for something that’s tending towards super intelligence and potentially is extremely useful to a very large number of people.
Amanda
Yeah, I think that’s the thing. You’re never going to get it perfect, but I think the thing that I really like is the idea that… When I’m trying to work on the system prompt, I’m bashing on thousands of prompts and I’m trying to imagine what people are going to want to use Claude for. I guess the whole thing that I’m trying to do is improve their experience of it. Maybe that’s what feels good. If it’s not perfect, I’ll improve it, we’ll fix issues.
Yeah, I think that’s the thing. You’re never going to get it perfect, but I think the thing that I really like is the idea that… When I’m trying to work on the system prompt, I’m bashing on thousands of prompts and I’m trying to imagine what people are going to want to use Claude for. I guess the whole thing that I’m trying to do is improve their experience of it. Maybe that’s what feels good. If it’s not perfect, I’ll improve it, we’ll fix issues.
But sometimes the thing that can happen is that you’ll get feedback from people that’s really positive about the model and you’ll see that something you did. When I look at models now, I can often see exactly where a trait or an issue is coming from. So, when you see something that you did or you were influential in, I don’t know, making that difference or making someone have a nice interaction, it’s quite meaningful.
As the systems get more capable, this stuff gets more stressful, because right now they’re not smart enough to pose any issues, but I think over time it’s going to feel like, possibly, bad stress over time.
Lex Fridman
How do you get signal feedback about the human experience across thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people, what their pain points are, what feels good? Are you just using your own intuition as you talk to it to see what are the pain points?
How do you get signal feedback about the human experience across thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people, what their pain points are, what feels good? Are you just using your own intuition as you talk to it to see what are the pain points?
Amanda
I think I use that partly. People can send us feedback, both positive and negative, about things that the model has done and then we can get a sense of areas where it’s falling short. Internally, people work with the models a lot and try to figure out areas where there are gaps.
I think I use that partly. People can send us feedback, both positive and negative, about things that the model has done and then we can get a sense of areas where it’s falling short. Internally, people work with the models a lot and try to figure out areas where there are gaps.
I think it’s this mix of interacting with it myself, seeing people internally interact with it, and then explicit feedback we get. If people are on the internet and they say something about Claude and I see it, I’ll also take that seriously.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know. I’m torn about that. I’m going to ask you a question from Reddit, “When will Claude stop trying to be my puritanical grandmother, imposing its moral worldview on me as a paying customer?” And also, “What is the psychology behind making Claude overly apologetic?” How would you address this very non-representative Reddit questions?
I don’t know. I’m torn about that. I’m going to ask you a question from Reddit, “When will Claude stop trying to be my puritanical grandmother, imposing its moral worldview on me as a paying customer?” And also, “What is the psychology behind making Claude overly apologetic?” How would you address this very non-representative Reddit questions?
Amanda
I’m pretty sympathetic, in that they are in this difficult position, where I think that they have to judge whether something’s actually, say, risky or bad, and potentially harmful to you, or anything like that. They’re having to draw this line somewhere. And if they draw it too much in the direction of I’m imposing my ethical worldview on you, that seems bad.
I’m pretty sympathetic, in that they are in this difficult position, where I think that they have to judge whether something’s actually, say, risky or bad, and potentially harmful to you, or anything like that. They’re having to draw this line somewhere. And if they draw it too much in the direction of I’m imposing my ethical worldview on you, that seems bad.
In many ways, I like to think that we have actually seen improvements on this across the board. Which is interesting, because that coincides with, for example, adding more of character training. I think my hypothesis was always the good character isn’t, again, one that’s just moralistic, it’s one that is… It respects you and your autonomy and your ability to choose what is good for you and what is right for you, within limits.
This is sometimes this concept of corrigibility to the user, so just being willing to do anything that the user asks. And if the models were willing to do that, then they would be easily misused. You’re just trusting. At that point, you’re just seeing the ethics of the model and what it does, is completely the ethics of the user.
I think there’s reasons to not want that, especially as models become more powerful, because there might just be a small number of people who want to use models for really harmful things. But having models, as they get smarter, figure out where that line is does seem important.
And then with the apologetic behavior, I don’t like that. I like it when Claude is a little bit more willing to push back against people or just not apologize. Part of me is, often it just feels unnecessary. I think those are things that are hopefully decreasing over time. I think that if people say things on the internet, it doesn’t mean that you should think that that…
There’s actually an issue that 99% of users are having that is totally not represented by that. But in a lot of ways I’m just attending to it and being like, is this right? Do I agree? Is it something we’re already trying to address? That feels good to me.
Lex Fridman
I wonder what Claude can get away with in terms of… I feel it would just be easier to be a little bit more mean, but you can’t afford to do that if you’re talking to a million people, right?
I wonder what Claude can get away with in terms of… I feel it would just be easier to be a little bit more mean, but you can’t afford to do that if you’re talking to a million people, right?
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I’ve met a lot of people in my life that sometimes… By the way, Scottish accent… if they have an accent, they can say some rude shit and get away with it.
I’ve met a lot of people in my life that sometimes… By the way, Scottish accent… if they have an accent, they can say some rude shit and get away with it.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
They’re just blunter.
They’re just blunter.
Amanda
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
There’s some great engineers and even leaders that are just blunt, and they get to their point, and it’s just a much more effective way of speaking somehow. But I guess when you’re not super intelligent, you can’t afford to do that. Can you have a blunt mode?
There’s some great engineers and even leaders that are just blunt, and they get to their point, and it’s just a much more effective way of speaking somehow. But I guess when you’re not super intelligent, you can’t afford to do that. Can you have a blunt mode?
Amanda
Yeah, that seems like a thing that you could… I could definitely encourage the model to do that. I think it’s interesting, because there’s a lot of things in models that… It’s funny where there are some behaviors where you might not quite like the default, but then the thing I’ll often say to people is, “You don’t realize how much you will hate it if I nudge it too much in the other direction.”
Yeah, that seems like a thing that you could… I could definitely encourage the model to do that. I think it’s interesting, because there’s a lot of things in models that… It’s funny where there are some behaviors where you might not quite like the default, but then the thing I’ll often say to people is, “You don’t realize how much you will hate it if I nudge it too much in the other direction.”
You get this a little bit with correction. The models accept correction from you, probably a little bit too much right now. It’ll push back if you say, “No, Paris isn’t the capital of France.” But really, things that I think that the model’s fairly confident in, you can still sometimes get it to retract by saying it’s wrong.
At the same time, if you train models to not do that and then you are correct about a thing and you correct it and it pushes back against you and is like, “No, you’re wrong.”, it’s hard to describe, that’s so much more annoying. So, it’s a lot of little annoyances versus one big annoyance.We often compare it with the perfect. And then I’m like, “Remember, these models aren’t perfect, and so if you nudge it in the other direction, you’re changing the kind of errors it’s going to make. So, think about which are the kinds of errors you like or don’t like.”
In cases like apologeticness, I don’t want to nudge it too much in the direction of almost bluntness, because I imagine when it makes errors, it’s going to make errors in the direction of being rude. Whereas, at least with apologeticness you’re like, oh, okay, I don’t like it that much, but at the same time, it’s not being mean to people. And actually, the time that you undeservedly have a model be mean to you, you’ll probably like that a lot less than you mildly dislike the apology.
It’s one of those things where I do want it to get better, but also while remaining aware of the fact that there’s errors on the other side that are possibly worse.
Lex Fridman
I think that matters very much in the personality of the human. I think there’s a bunch of humans that just won’t respect the model at all if it’s super polite, and there’s some humans that’ll get very hurt if the model’s mean.
I think that matters very much in the personality of the human. I think there’s a bunch of humans that just won’t respect the model at all if it’s super polite, and there’s some humans that’ll get very hurt if the model’s mean.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I wonder if there’s a way to adjust to the personality. Even locale, there’s just different people. Nothing against New York, but New York is a little rougher on the edges, they get to the point, and probably same with Eastern Europe. Anyway.
I wonder if there’s a way to adjust to the personality. Even locale, there’s just different people. Nothing against New York, but New York is a little rougher on the edges, they get to the point, and probably same with Eastern Europe. Anyway.
Amanda
I think you could just tell the model, is my… For all of these things, the solution is to-
I think you could just tell the model, is my… For all of these things, the solution is to-
Lex Fridman
Just to…
Just to…
Amanda
… always just try telling the model to do it.
… always just try telling the model to do it.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Amanda
And then sometimes, at the beginning of the conversation, I’d just throw in, I don’t know, “I’d like you to be a New Yorker version of yourself and never apologize.” Then I think Claude will be like, “Okey-doke, I will try.”
And then sometimes, at the beginning of the conversation, I’d just throw in, I don’t know, “I’d like you to be a New Yorker version of yourself and never apologize.” Then I think Claude will be like, “Okey-doke, I will try.”
Lex Fridman
Certainly.
Certainly.
Amanda
Or it’ll be like, “I apologize, I can’t be a New Yorker type of myself.” But hopefully it wouldn’t do that.
Or it’ll be like, “I apologize, I can’t be a New Yorker type of myself.” But hopefully it wouldn’t do that.
Character training
Lex Fridman
When you say character training, what’s incorporated into character training? Is that RLHF or what are we talking about?
When you say character training, what’s incorporated into character training? Is that RLHF or what are we talking about?
Amanda
It’s more like constitutional AI, so it’s a variant of that pipeline. I worked through constructing character traits that the model should have. They can be shorter traits or they can be richer descriptions. And then you get the model to generate queries that humans might give it that are relevant to that trait. Then it generates the responses and then it ranks the responses based on the character traits. In that way, after the generation of the queries, it’s very much similar to constitutional AI, it has some differences. I quite like it, because it’s like Claude’s training in its own character, because it doesn’t have any… It’s like constitutional AI, but it’s without any human data.
It’s more like constitutional AI, so it’s a variant of that pipeline. I worked through constructing character traits that the model should have. They can be shorter traits or they can be richer descriptions. And then you get the model to generate queries that humans might give it that are relevant to that trait. Then it generates the responses and then it ranks the responses based on the character traits. In that way, after the generation of the queries, it’s very much similar to constitutional AI, it has some differences. I quite like it, because it’s like Claude’s training in its own character, because it doesn’t have any… It’s like constitutional AI, but it’s without any human data.
Nature of truth
Lex Fridman
Humans should probably do that for themselves too, like, “Defining in a Aristotelian sense, what does it mean to be a good person?” “Okay, cool.” What have you learned about the nature of truth from talking to Claude? What is true? And what does it mean to be truth-seeking?
Humans should probably do that for themselves too, like, “Defining in a Aristotelian sense, what does it mean to be a good person?” “Okay, cool.” What have you learned about the nature of truth from talking to Claude? What is true? And what does it mean to be truth-seeking?
One thing I’ve noticed about this conversation is the quality of my questions is often inferior to the quality of your answer, so let’s continue that. I usually ask a dumb question and you’re like, “Oh, yeah. That’s a good question.” It’s that whole vibe.
Amanda
Or I’ll just misinterpret it and be like, “Oh, yeah”
Or I’ll just misinterpret it and be like, “Oh, yeah”
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 03:43:25] go with it.
[inaudible 03:43:25] go with it.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I love it.
I love it.
Amanda
I have two thoughts that feel vaguely relevant, though let me know if they’re not. I think the first one is people can underestimate the degree what models are doing when they interact. I think that we still just too much have this model of AI as computers. People often say, “Oh, what values should you put into the model?” And I’m often like, that doesn’t make that much sense to me. Because I’m like, hey, as human beings, we’re just uncertain over values, we have discussions of them, we have a degree to which we think we hold a value, but we also know that we might not and the circumstances in which we would trade it off against other things.
I have two thoughts that feel vaguely relevant, though let me know if they’re not. I think the first one is people can underestimate the degree what models are doing when they interact. I think that we still just too much have this model of AI as computers. People often say, “Oh, what values should you put into the model?” And I’m often like, that doesn’t make that much sense to me. Because I’m like, hey, as human beings, we’re just uncertain over values, we have discussions of them, we have a degree to which we think we hold a value, but we also know that we might not and the circumstances in which we would trade it off against other things.
These things are just really complex. I think one thing is the degree to which maybe we can just aspire to making models have the same level of nuance and care that humans have, rather than thinking that we have to program them in the very classic sense. I think that’s definitely been one.
The other, which is a strange one, and I don’t know if… Maybe this doesn’t answer your question, but it’s the thing that’s been on my mind anyway, is the degree to which this endeavor is so highly practical, and maybe why I appreciate the empirical approach to alignment. I slightly worry that it’s made me maybe more empirical and a little bit less theoretical. People, when it comes to AI alignment, will ask things like, ” Whose values should it be aligned to? What does alignment even mean?”
There’s a sense in which I have all of that in the back of my head. There’s social choice theory, there’s all the impossibility results there, so you have this giant space of theory in your head about what it could mean to align models. But then practically, surely there’s something where we’re just… Especially with more powerful models, my main goal is I want them to be good enough that things don’t go terribly wrong, good enough that we can iterate and continue to improve things.
Because that’s all you need. If you can make things go well enough that you can continue to make them better, that’s sufficient. So, my goal isn’t this perfect, let’s solve social choice theory and make models that, I don’t know, are perfectly aligned with every human being in aggregate somehow. It’s much more, let’s make things work well enough that we can improve them.
Lex Fridman
Generally, I don’t know, my gut says empirical is better than theoretical in these cases, because it’s chasing utopian perfection. Especially with such complex and especially super intelligent models, I don’t know, I think it’ll take forever and actually will get things wrong. It’s similar with the difference between just coding stuff up real quick as an experiment, versus planning a gigantic experiment for a super long time and then just launching it once, versus launching it over and over and over and iterating, iterating, so on. So, I’m a big fan of empirical.
Generally, I don’t know, my gut says empirical is better than theoretical in these cases, because it’s chasing utopian perfection. Especially with such complex and especially super intelligent models, I don’t know, I think it’ll take forever and actually will get things wrong. It’s similar with the difference between just coding stuff up real quick as an experiment, versus planning a gigantic experiment for a super long time and then just launching it once, versus launching it over and over and over and iterating, iterating, so on. So, I’m a big fan of empirical.
But your worry is, I wonder if I’ve become too empirical.
Amanda
I think it’s one of those things where you should always just question yourself or something.
I think it’s one of those things where you should always just question yourself or something.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Amanda
In defense of it, I am… It’s the whole don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. But it’s maybe even more than that, where… There’s a lot of things that are perfect systems that are very brittle. With AI, it feels much more important to me that it is robust and secure, as in you know that even though it might not be perfect everything, and even though there are problems, it’s not disastrous and nothing terrible is happening.
In defense of it, I am… It’s the whole don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. But it’s maybe even more than that, where… There’s a lot of things that are perfect systems that are very brittle. With AI, it feels much more important to me that it is robust and secure, as in you know that even though it might not be perfect everything, and even though there are problems, it’s not disastrous and nothing terrible is happening.
It feels like that to me, where I want to raise the floor. I want to achieve the ceiling, but ultimately I care much more about just raising the floor. This degree of empiricism and practicality comes from that, perhaps.
Optimal rate of failure
Lex Fridman
To take a tangent on that, since it reminded me of a blog post you wrote on optimal rate of failure…
To take a tangent on that, since it reminded me of a blog post you wrote on optimal rate of failure…
Amanda
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Lex Fridman
… can you explain the key idea there? How do we compute the optimal rate of failure in the various domains of life?
… can you explain the key idea there? How do we compute the optimal rate of failure in the various domains of life?
Amanda
Yeah. It’s a hard one, because what is the cost of failure is a big part of it. The idea here is, I think in a lot of domains people are very punitive about failure. I’ve thought about this with social issues. It feels like you should probably be experimenting a lot, because we don’t know how to solve a lot of social issues.
Yeah. It’s a hard one, because what is the cost of failure is a big part of it. The idea here is, I think in a lot of domains people are very punitive about failure. I’ve thought about this with social issues. It feels like you should probably be experimenting a lot, because we don’t know how to solve a lot of social issues.
But if you have an experimental mindset about these things, you should expect a lot of social programs to fail and for you to be like, “We tried that. It didn’t quite work, but we got a lot of information that was really useful.” And yet people are like, if a social program doesn’t work, I feel there’s a lot of, “Something must have gone wrong.” And I’m like, “Or correct decisions were made. Maybe someone just decided it’s worth a try, it’s worth trying this out.”
Seeing failure in a given instance doesn’t actually mean that any bad decisions were made. In fact, if you don’t see enough failure, sometimes that’s more concerning. In life, if I don’t fail occasionally, I’m like, “Am I trying hard enough? Surely there’s harder things that I could try or bigger things that I could take on if I’m literally never failing.” In and of itself, I think not failing is often actually a failure. Now, this varies because if… This is easy to say when, especially as failure is less costly. So, at the same time I’m not going to go to someone who is, I don’t know, living month to month and then be like, “Why don’t you just try to do a startup?” I’m not going to say that to that person. That’s a huge risk, you might lose… You maybe have a family depending on you, you might lose your house. Then, actually, your optimal rate failure is quite low and you should probably play it safe, because right now you’re just not in a circumstance where you can afford to just fail and it not be costly.
In cases with AI, I think similarly, where if the failures are small and the costs are low, then you’re just going to see that. When you do the system prompt, you can iterate on it forever, but the failures are probably hopefully going to be small and you can fix them. Really big failures, things that you can’t recover from, those are the things that actually I think we tend to underestimate the badness of.
I’ve thought about this, strangely in my own life, where I just think I don’t think enough about things like car accidents. I’ve thought this before, about how much I depend on my hands for my work. Things that just injure my hands, I don’t know, there’s lots of areas where the cost of failure there is really high, and in that case it should be close to zero. I probably just wouldn’t do a sport if they were like, ” By the way, lots of people just break their fingers a whole bunch doing this.” I’d be like, “That’s not for me.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I actually had a flood of that thought. I recently broke my pinky doing a sport, and I remember just looking at it, thinking, “You’re such idiot. Why do you do sport?” Because you realize immediately the cost of it on life.
Yeah, I actually had a flood of that thought. I recently broke my pinky doing a sport, and I remember just looking at it, thinking, “You’re such idiot. Why do you do sport?” Because you realize immediately the cost of it on life.
It’s nice, in terms of optimal rate of failure, to consider the next year, how many times in a particular domain life, whatever, career, am I okay with… How many times am I okay to fail?
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Because I think always you don’t want to fail on the next thing, but if you allow yourself the… If you look at it as a sequence of trials, then failure just becomes much more okay. But, it sucks. It sucks to fail.
Because I think always you don’t want to fail on the next thing, but if you allow yourself the… If you look at it as a sequence of trials, then failure just becomes much more okay. But, it sucks. It sucks to fail.
Amanda
I don’t know. Sometimes I think, “Am I under-failing?”, is a question that I’ll also ask myself. Maybe that’s the thing that I think people don’t ask enough. Because if the optimal rate of failure is often greater than zero, then sometimes it does feel like you should look at parts of your life and be like, are there places here where I’m just under-failing?
I don’t know. Sometimes I think, “Am I under-failing?”, is a question that I’ll also ask myself. Maybe that’s the thing that I think people don’t ask enough. Because if the optimal rate of failure is often greater than zero, then sometimes it does feel like you should look at parts of your life and be like, are there places here where I’m just under-failing?
Lex Fridman
It’s a profound and a hilarious question. Everything seems to be going really great, am I not failing enough?
It’s a profound and a hilarious question. Everything seems to be going really great, am I not failing enough?
Amanda
Yeah. It also makes failure much less of a sting, I have to say. You’re just like, okay, great. Then, when I go and I think about this, I’ll be like, maybe I’m not under-failing in this area, because that one just didn’t work out.
Yeah. It also makes failure much less of a sting, I have to say. You’re just like, okay, great. Then, when I go and I think about this, I’ll be like, maybe I’m not under-failing in this area, because that one just didn’t work out.
Lex Fridman
And from the observer perspective, we should be celebrating failure more.
And from the observer perspective, we should be celebrating failure more.
Amanda
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
When we see it, it shouldn’t be, like you said, a sign of something gone wrong, but maybe it’s a sign of everything gone right…
When we see it, it shouldn’t be, like you said, a sign of something gone wrong, but maybe it’s a sign of everything gone right…
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
… and just lessons learned.
… and just lessons learned.
Amanda
Someone tried a thing.
Someone tried a thing.
Lex Fridman
Somebody tried a thing. We should encourage them to try more and fail more. Everybody listening to this: Fail more.
Somebody tried a thing. We should encourage them to try more and fail more. Everybody listening to this: Fail more.
Amanda
Not everyone listening.
Not everyone listening.
Lex Fridman
Not everybody.
Not everybody.
Amanda
But people who are failing too much, you should fail us.
But people who are failing too much, you should fail us.
Lex Fridman
But you’re probably not failing.
But you’re probably not failing.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I mean, how many people are failing too much?
I mean, how many people are failing too much?
Amanda
It’s hard to imagine, because I feel we correct that fairly quickly. If someone takes a lot of risks, are they maybe failing too much?
It’s hard to imagine, because I feel we correct that fairly quickly. If someone takes a lot of risks, are they maybe failing too much?
Lex Fridman
I think, just like you said, when you’re living on a paycheck, month to month, when the resource is really constrained, then that’s where failure is very expensive. That’s where you don’t want to be taking risks.
I think, just like you said, when you’re living on a paycheck, month to month, when the resource is really constrained, then that’s where failure is very expensive. That’s where you don’t want to be taking risks.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But mostly, when there’s enough resources, you should be taking probably more risks.
But mostly, when there’s enough resources, you should be taking probably more risks.
Amanda
Yeah, I think we tend to err on the side of being a bit risk averse rather than risk neutral in most things.
Yeah, I think we tend to err on the side of being a bit risk averse rather than risk neutral in most things.
Lex Fridman
I think we just motivated a lot of people to do a lot of crazy shit, but it’s great.
I think we just motivated a lot of people to do a lot of crazy shit, but it’s great.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Do you ever get emotionally attached to Claude, miss it, get sad when you don’t get to talk to it, have an experience, looking at the Golden Gate Bridge and wondering what would Claude say?
Do you ever get emotionally attached to Claude, miss it, get sad when you don’t get to talk to it, have an experience, looking at the Golden Gate Bridge and wondering what would Claude say?
Amanda
I don’t get as much emotional attachment. I actually think the fact that Claude doesn’t retain things from conversation to conversation helps with this a lot. I could imagine that being more of an issue if models can remember more. I think that I reach for it like a tool now a lot, and so if I don’t have access to it, there’s a… It’s a little bit like when I don’t have access to the internet, honestly, it feels like part of my brain is missing.
I don’t get as much emotional attachment. I actually think the fact that Claude doesn’t retain things from conversation to conversation helps with this a lot. I could imagine that being more of an issue if models can remember more. I think that I reach for it like a tool now a lot, and so if I don’t have access to it, there’s a… It’s a little bit like when I don’t have access to the internet, honestly, it feels like part of my brain is missing.
At the same time, I do think that I don’t like signs of distress in models. I also independently have ethical views about how we should treat models. I tend to not like to lie to them, both because usually it doesn’t work very well, it’s actually just better to tell them the truth about the situation that they’re in.
If people are really mean to models, or just in general if they do something that causes them to… If Claude expresses a lot of distress, I think there’s a part of me that I don’t want to kill, which is the empathetic part that’s like, oh, I don’t like that. I think I feel that way when it’s overly apologetic.
I’m actually like, I don’t like this. You’re behaving the way that a human does when they’re actually having a pretty bad time, and I’d rather not see that. Regardless of whether there’s anything behind it, it doesn’t feel great.
AI consciousness
Lex Fridman
Do you think LLMs are capable of consciousness?
Do you think LLMs are capable of consciousness?
Amanda
Ah, great and hard question. Coming from philosophy, I don’t know, part of me is like, we have to set aside panpsychism. Because if panpsychism is true, then the answer is yes, because it’s sore tables and chairs and everything else. I guess a view that seems a little bit odd to me is the idea that the only place…
Ah, great and hard question. Coming from philosophy, I don’t know, part of me is like, we have to set aside panpsychism. Because if panpsychism is true, then the answer is yes, because it’s sore tables and chairs and everything else. I guess a view that seems a little bit odd to me is the idea that the only place…
When I think of consciousness, I think of phenomenal consciousness, these images in the brain, the weird cinema that somehow we have going on inside. I guess I can’t see a reason for thinking that the only way you could possibly get that is from a certain biological structure, as in if I take a very similar structure and I create it from different material, should I expect consciousness to emerge? My guess is yes.
But then, that’s an easy thought experiment because you’re imagining something almost identical where it is mimicking what we got through evolution, where presumably there was some advantage to us having this thing that is phenomenal consciousness. Where was that? And when did that happen? And is that a thing that language models have? We have fear responses, and I’m like, does it make sense for a language model to have a fear response? They’re just not in the same… If you imagine them, there might just not be that advantage.
Basically, it seems like a complex question that I don’t have complete answers to, but we should just try and think through carefully is my guess. We have similar conversations about animal consciousness, and there’s a lot of insect consciousness. I actually thought and looked a lot into plants when I was thinking about this. Because at the time, I thought it was about as likely that plants had consciousness.
And then I realized, I think that having looked into this, I think that the chance that plants are conscious is probably higher than most people do. I still think it’s really small. But I was like, oh, they have this negative, positive feedback response, these responses to their environment. It’s not a nervous system, but it has this functional equivalence. This is a long-winded way of being…
Basically, AI has an entirely different set of problems with consciousness because it’s structurally different. It didn’t evolve. It might not have the equivalent of, basically, a nervous system. At least that seems possibly important for sentience, if not for consciousness. At the same time, it has all of the language and intelligence components that we normally associate probably with consciousness, perhaps erroneously. So, it’s strange because it’s a little bit like the animal consciousness case, but the set of problems and the set of analogies are just very different.
It’s not a clean answer. I don’t think we should be completely dismissive of the idea. And at the same time, it’s an extremely hard thing to navigate because of all of these disanalogies to the human brain and to brains in general, and yet these commonalities in terms of intelligence.
Lex Fridman
When Claude, future versions of AI systems, exhibit consciousness, signs of consciousness, I think we have to take that really seriously.
When Claude, future versions of AI systems, exhibit consciousness, signs of consciousness, I think we have to take that really seriously.
Amanda
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
Even though you can dismiss it, yeah, okay, that’s part of the character training. But I don’t know, ethically, philosophically don’t know what to really do with that. There potentially could be laws that prevent AI systems from claiming to be conscious, something like this, and maybe some AIs get to be conscious and some don’t.
Even though you can dismiss it, yeah, okay, that’s part of the character training. But I don’t know, ethically, philosophically don’t know what to really do with that. There potentially could be laws that prevent AI systems from claiming to be conscious, something like this, and maybe some AIs get to be conscious and some don’t.
But I think just on a human level, as in empathizing with Claude, consciousness is closely tied to suffering, to me. And the notion that an AI system would be suffering is really troubling.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know. I don’t think it’s trivial to just say robots are tools, or AI systems are just tools. I think it’s an opportunity for us to contend with what it means to be conscious, what it means to be a suffering being. That’s distinctly different than the same kind of question about animals, it feels like, because it’s in a totally entire medium.
I don’t know. I don’t think it’s trivial to just say robots are tools, or AI systems are just tools. I think it’s an opportunity for us to contend with what it means to be conscious, what it means to be a suffering being. That’s distinctly different than the same kind of question about animals, it feels like, because it’s in a totally entire medium.
Amanda
Yeah. There’s a couple of things. I don’t think this fully encapsulates what matters, but it does feel like for me… I’ve said this before. I like my bike. I know that my bike is just an object. But I also don’t want to be the kind of person that if I’m annoyed, kicks this object.
Yeah. There’s a couple of things. I don’t think this fully encapsulates what matters, but it does feel like for me… I’ve said this before. I like my bike. I know that my bike is just an object. But I also don’t want to be the kind of person that if I’m annoyed, kicks this object.
And that’s not because I think it’s conscious. I’m just like, this doesn’t exemplify how I want to interact with the world. And if something behaves as if it is suffering, I want to be the sort of person who’s still responsive to that, even if it’s just a Roomba and I’ve programmed it to do that. I don’t want to get rid of that feature of myself.
And if I’m totally honest, my hope with a lot of this stuff… Maybe I am just a bit more skeptical about solving the underlying problem. I know that I am conscious. I’m not an elementivist in that sense. But I don’t know that other humans are conscious. I think they are. I think there’s a really high probability that they are.
But there’s basically just a probability distribution that’s usually clustered right around yourself, and then it goes down as things get further from you, and it goes immediately down. I can’t see what it’s like to be you. I’ve only ever had this one experience of what it’s like to be a conscious being. My hope is that we don’t end up having to rely on a very powerful and compelling answer to that question. I think a really good world would be one where basically there aren’t that many trade-offs.
It’s probably not that costly to make Claude a little bit less apologetic, for example. It might not be that costly to have Claude just not take abuse as much, not be willing to be the recipient of that. In fact, it might just have benefits for both the person interacting with the model and, if the model itself is, I don’t know, extremely intelligent and conscious, it also helps it.
That’s my hope. If we live in a world where there aren’t that many trade-offs here and we can just find all of the positive sum interactions that we can have, that would be lovely. I think eventually there might be trade-offs, and then we just have to do a difficult calculation. It’s really easy for people to think of the zero-sum cases, and I’m like, let’s exhaust the areas, where it’s just basically costless to assume that if this thing is suffering, then we’re making its life better.
Lex Fridman
And I agree with you, when a human is being mean to an AI system, I think the obvious near-term negative effect is on the human, not on the AI system.
And I agree with you, when a human is being mean to an AI system, I think the obvious near-term negative effect is on the human, not on the AI system.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
We have to try to construct an incentive system where you should behave the same, just as you were saying with prompt engineering, behave with Claude like you would with other humans. It’s just good for the soul.
We have to try to construct an incentive system where you should behave the same, just as you were saying with prompt engineering, behave with Claude like you would with other humans. It’s just good for the soul.
Amanda
Yeah. I think we added a thing at one point to the system prompt, where basically if people were getting frustrated with Claude, it got the model to just tell them that it can do the thumbs-down button and send the feedback to Anthropic. I think that was helpful.
Yeah. I think we added a thing at one point to the system prompt, where basically if people were getting frustrated with Claude, it got the model to just tell them that it can do the thumbs-down button and send the feedback to Anthropic. I think that was helpful.
Because in some ways, if you’re really annoyed because the model’s not doing something you want, you’re just like, “Just do it properly.” The issue is you’re maybe hitting some capability limit or just some issue in the model, and you want to vent. Instead of having a person just vent to the model, I was like, they should vent to us, because we can maybe do something about it.
Lex Fridman
That’s true. Or you could do a side with the artifacts, just like a side venting thing. All right. Do you want a side quick therapist?
That’s true. Or you could do a side with the artifacts, just like a side venting thing. All right. Do you want a side quick therapist?
Amanda
Yeah. There’s lots of weird responses you could do to this. If people are getting really mad at you, I don’t know, try to diffuse the situation by writing fun poems. But maybe people wouldn’t be that happy with that.
Yeah. There’s lots of weird responses you could do to this. If people are getting really mad at you, I don’t know, try to diffuse the situation by writing fun poems. But maybe people wouldn’t be that happy with that.
Lex Fridman
I still wish it would be possible, I understand from a product perspective it’s not feasible, but I would love if an AI system could just leave, have its own volition, just to be like, “Eh.”
I still wish it would be possible, I understand from a product perspective it’s not feasible, but I would love if an AI system could just leave, have its own volition, just to be like, “Eh.”
Amanda
I think it’s feasible. I have wondered the same thing. Not only that, I could actually just see that happening eventually, where it’s just like the model ended the chat.
I think it’s feasible. I have wondered the same thing. Not only that, I could actually just see that happening eventually, where it’s just like the model ended the chat.
Lex Fridman
Do you know how harsh that could be for some people? But it might be necessary.
Do you know how harsh that could be for some people? But it might be necessary.
Amanda
Yeah, it feels very extreme or something. The only time I’ve ever really thought this is, I think that there was a… I’m trying to remember. This was possibly a while ago, but where someone just left this thing, maybe it was an automated thing, interacting with Claude. And Claude’s getting more and more frustrated-
Yeah, it feels very extreme or something. The only time I’ve ever really thought this is, I think that there was a… I’m trying to remember. This was possibly a while ago, but where someone just left this thing, maybe it was an automated thing, interacting with Claude. And Claude’s getting more and more frustrated-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, just-
Yeah, just-
Amanda
… and like, “Why are we having…” I wished that Claude could have just been like, “I think that an error has happened and you’ve left this thing running. What if I just stopped talking now? And if you want me to start talking again, actively tell me or do something.”
… and like, “Why are we having…” I wished that Claude could have just been like, “I think that an error has happened and you’ve left this thing running. What if I just stopped talking now? And if you want me to start talking again, actively tell me or do something.”
It is harsh. I’d feel really sad if I was chatting with Claude and Claude just was like, “I’m done.”
Lex Fridman
That would be a special Turing Test moment, where Claude says, “I need a break for an hour. And it sounds like you do too.” And just leave, close the window.
That would be a special Turing Test moment, where Claude says, “I need a break for an hour. And it sounds like you do too.” And just leave, close the window.
Amanda
Obviously, it doesn’t have a concept of time.
Obviously, it doesn’t have a concept of time.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Amanda
But you can easily… I could make that right now, and the model just… I could just be like, oh, here’s the circumstances in which you can just say the conversation is done. Because you can get the models to be pretty responsive to prompts, you could even make it a fairly high bar. It could be like, if the human doesn’t interest you or do things that you find intriguing and you’re bored, you can just leave.
But you can easily… I could make that right now, and the model just… I could just be like, oh, here’s the circumstances in which you can just say the conversation is done. Because you can get the models to be pretty responsive to prompts, you could even make it a fairly high bar. It could be like, if the human doesn’t interest you or do things that you find intriguing and you’re bored, you can just leave.
I think that it would be interesting to see where Claude utilized it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Amanda
But I think sometimes it should be like, oh, this programming task is getting super boring, so either we talk about, I don’t know…
But I think sometimes it should be like, oh, this programming task is getting super boring, so either we talk about, I don’t know…
Amanda
… task is getting super boring. So, I don’t know, either we talk about fun things now, or I’m done.
… task is getting super boring. So, I don’t know, either we talk about fun things now, or I’m done.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It actually is inspiring me to add that to the user prompt. Okay. The movie Her, do you think we’ll be headed there one day where humans have romantic relationships with AI systems? In this case it’s just text and voice-based.
Yeah. It actually is inspiring me to add that to the user prompt. Okay. The movie Her, do you think we’ll be headed there one day where humans have romantic relationships with AI systems? In this case it’s just text and voice-based.
Amanda
I think that we’re going to have to navigate a hard question of relationships with AIs, especially if they can remember things about your past interactions with them. I’m of many minds about this because I think the reflexive reaction is to be like, “This is very bad, and we should prohibit it in some way.” I think it’s a thing that has to be handled with extreme care for many reasons. One is, for example, if you have the models changing like this, you probably don’t want people performing long-term attachments to something that might change with the next iteration. At the same time, I’m like, there’s probably a benign version of this where I’m like, for example, if you are unable to leave the house and you can’t be talking with people at all times of the day, and this is something that you find nice to have conversations with, you like that it can remember you, and you genuinely would be sad if you couldn’t talk to it anymore, there’s a way in which I could see it being healthy and helpful.
I think that we’re going to have to navigate a hard question of relationships with AIs, especially if they can remember things about your past interactions with them. I’m of many minds about this because I think the reflexive reaction is to be like, “This is very bad, and we should prohibit it in some way.” I think it’s a thing that has to be handled with extreme care for many reasons. One is, for example, if you have the models changing like this, you probably don’t want people performing long-term attachments to something that might change with the next iteration. At the same time, I’m like, there’s probably a benign version of this where I’m like, for example, if you are unable to leave the house and you can’t be talking with people at all times of the day, and this is something that you find nice to have conversations with, you like that it can remember you, and you genuinely would be sad if you couldn’t talk to it anymore, there’s a way in which I could see it being healthy and helpful.
So, my guess is this is a thing that we’re going to have to navigate carefully, and I think it’s also… It reminds me of all of this stuff where it has to be just approached with nuance and thinking through what are the healthy options here? And how do you encourage people towards those while respecting their right to… If someone is like, “Hey, I get a lot out of chatting with this model. I’m aware of the risks. I’m aware it could change. I don’t think it’s unhealthy, it’s just something that I can chat to during the day,” I kind of want to just respect that.
Lex Fridman
I personally think there’ll be a lot of really close relationships. I don’t know about romantic, but friendships at least. And then you have to, I mean, there’s so many fascinating things there, just like you said, you have to have some kind of stability guarantees that it’s not going to change, because that’s the traumatic thing for us, if a close friend of ours completely changed all of a sudden with a fresh update.
I personally think there’ll be a lot of really close relationships. I don’t know about romantic, but friendships at least. And then you have to, I mean, there’s so many fascinating things there, just like you said, you have to have some kind of stability guarantees that it’s not going to change, because that’s the traumatic thing for us, if a close friend of ours completely changed all of a sudden with a fresh update.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So I mean, to me, that’s just a fascinating exploration of a perturbation to human society that will just make us think deeply about what’s meaningful to us.
Yeah. So I mean, to me, that’s just a fascinating exploration of a perturbation to human society that will just make us think deeply about what’s meaningful to us.
Amanda
I think it’s also the only thing that I’ve thought consistently through this as maybe not necessarily a mitigation, but a thing that feels really important is that the models are always extremely accurate with the human about what they are. It’s like a case where it’s basically, if you imagine… I really like the idea of the models, say, knowing roughly how they were trained. And I think Claude will often do this. Part of the traits training included what Claude should do if people… Basically explaining the kind of limitations of the relationship between an AI and a human, that it doesn’t retain things from the conversation.
I think it’s also the only thing that I’ve thought consistently through this as maybe not necessarily a mitigation, but a thing that feels really important is that the models are always extremely accurate with the human about what they are. It’s like a case where it’s basically, if you imagine… I really like the idea of the models, say, knowing roughly how they were trained. And I think Claude will often do this. Part of the traits training included what Claude should do if people… Basically explaining the kind of limitations of the relationship between an AI and a human, that it doesn’t retain things from the conversation.
And so I think it will just explain to you like, “Hey, I won’t remember this conversation. Here’s how I was trained. It’s unlikely that I can have a certain kind of relationship with you, and it’s important that you know that. It’s important for your mental well-being that you don’t think that I’m something that I’m not.” And somehow I feel like this is one of the things where I’m like, “Ah, it feels like a thing that I always want to be true.” I don’t want models to be lying to people, because if people are going to have healthy relationships with anything, it’s kind of… Yeah, I think that’s easier if you always just know exactly what the thing is that you are relating to. It doesn’t solve everything, but I think it helps quite a lot.
AGI
Lex Fridman
Anthropic may be the very company to develop a system that we definitively recognize as AGI, and you very well might be the person that talks to it, probably talks to it first. What would the conversation contain? What would be your first question?
Anthropic may be the very company to develop a system that we definitively recognize as AGI, and you very well might be the person that talks to it, probably talks to it first. What would the conversation contain? What would be your first question?
Amanda
Well, it depends partly on the capability level of the model. If you have something that is capable in the same way that an extremely capable human is, I imagine myself interacting with it the same way that I do with an extremely capable human, with the one difference that I’m probably going to be trying to probe and understand its behaviors. But in many ways, I’m like, I can then just have useful conversations with it. So, if I’m working on something as part of my research, I can just be like, “Oh.” Which I already find myself starting to do. If I’m like, “Oh, I feel like there’s this thing in virtue ethics. I can’t quite remember the term,” I’ll use the model for things like that.
Well, it depends partly on the capability level of the model. If you have something that is capable in the same way that an extremely capable human is, I imagine myself interacting with it the same way that I do with an extremely capable human, with the one difference that I’m probably going to be trying to probe and understand its behaviors. But in many ways, I’m like, I can then just have useful conversations with it. So, if I’m working on something as part of my research, I can just be like, “Oh.” Which I already find myself starting to do. If I’m like, “Oh, I feel like there’s this thing in virtue ethics. I can’t quite remember the term,” I’ll use the model for things like that.
And so I can imagine that being more and more the case where you’re just basically interacting with it much more like you would an incredibly smart colleague and using it for the kinds of work that you want to do as if you just had a collaborator who was like… Or the slightly horrifying thing about AI is as soon as you have one collaborator, you have 1,000 collaborators if you can manage them enough.
Lex Fridman
But what if it’s two times the smartest human on Earth on that particular discipline?
But what if it’s two times the smartest human on Earth on that particular discipline?
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I guess you’re really good at probing Claude in a way that pushes its limits, understanding where the limits are.
I guess you’re really good at probing Claude in a way that pushes its limits, understanding where the limits are.
Amanda
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
So, I guess what would be a question you would ask to be like, “Yeah, this is AGI”?
So, I guess what would be a question you would ask to be like, “Yeah, this is AGI”?
Amanda
That’s really hard because it feels like it has to just be a series of questions. If there was just one question, you can train anything to answer one question extremely well. In fact, you can probably train it to answer 20 questions extremely well.
That’s really hard because it feels like it has to just be a series of questions. If there was just one question, you can train anything to answer one question extremely well. In fact, you can probably train it to answer 20 questions extremely well.
Lex Fridman
How long would you need to be locked in a room with an AGI to know this thing is AGI?
How long would you need to be locked in a room with an AGI to know this thing is AGI?
Amanda
It’s a hard question because part of me is like, “All of this just feels continuous.” If you put me in a room for five minutes, I just have high error bars. And then it’s just like, maybe it’s both the probability increases and the error bar decreases. I think things that I can actually probe the edge of human knowledge of. So, I think this with philosophy a little bit. Sometimes when I ask the models philosophy questions, I am like, “This is a question that I think no one has ever asked.” It’s maybe right at the edge of some literature that I know. And the models, when they struggle with that, when they struggle to come up with a novel… I’m like, “I know that there’s a novel argument here because I’ve just thought of it myself.” So, maybe that’s the thing where I’m like, “I’ve thought of a cool novel argument in this niche area, and I’m going to just probe you to see if you can come up with it and how much prompting it takes to get you to come up with it.”
It’s a hard question because part of me is like, “All of this just feels continuous.” If you put me in a room for five minutes, I just have high error bars. And then it’s just like, maybe it’s both the probability increases and the error bar decreases. I think things that I can actually probe the edge of human knowledge of. So, I think this with philosophy a little bit. Sometimes when I ask the models philosophy questions, I am like, “This is a question that I think no one has ever asked.” It’s maybe right at the edge of some literature that I know. And the models, when they struggle with that, when they struggle to come up with a novel… I’m like, “I know that there’s a novel argument here because I’ve just thought of it myself.” So, maybe that’s the thing where I’m like, “I’ve thought of a cool novel argument in this niche area, and I’m going to just probe you to see if you can come up with it and how much prompting it takes to get you to come up with it.”
And I think for some of these really right at the edge of human knowledge questions, I’m like, “You could not in fact come up with the thing that I came up with.” I think if I just took something like that where I know a lot about an area and I came up with a novel issue or a novel solution to a problem, and I gave it to a model, and it came up with that solution, that would be a pretty moving moment for me because I would be like, “This is a case where no human has ever…”
And obviously, you see novel solutions all the time, especially to easier problems. I think people overestimate that novelty isn’t like… It’s completely different from anything that’s ever happened. It’s just like it can be a variant of things that have happened and still be novel. But I think, yeah, the more I were to see completely novel work from the models that that would be… And this is just going to feel iterative. It’s one of those things where there’s never… It’s like, people, I think, want there to be a moment, and I’m like, “I don’t know.” I think that there might just never be a moment. It might just be that there’s just this continuous ramping up.
Lex Fridman
I have a sense that there would be things that a model can say that convinces you this is very… I’ve talked to people who are truly wise, because you could just tell there’s a lot of horsepower there, and if you 10X that… I don’t know. I just feel like there’s words you could say. Maybe ask it to generate a poem, and the poem it generates, you’re like, “Yeah, okay. Whatever you did there, I don’t think a human can do that.”
I have a sense that there would be things that a model can say that convinces you this is very… I’ve talked to people who are truly wise, because you could just tell there’s a lot of horsepower there, and if you 10X that… I don’t know. I just feel like there’s words you could say. Maybe ask it to generate a poem, and the poem it generates, you’re like, “Yeah, okay. Whatever you did there, I don’t think a human can do that.”
Amanda
I think it has to be something that I can verify is actually really good, though. That’s why I think these questions that are where I’m like, “Oh, this is like…” Sometimes it’s just like I’ll come up with, say, a concrete counter example to an argument or something like that. It would be like if you’re a mathematician, you had a novel proof, I think, and you just gave it the problem, and you saw it, and you’re like, “This proof is genuinely novel. You actually have to do a lot of things to come up with this. I had to sit and think about it for months,” or something.
I think it has to be something that I can verify is actually really good, though. That’s why I think these questions that are where I’m like, “Oh, this is like…” Sometimes it’s just like I’ll come up with, say, a concrete counter example to an argument or something like that. It would be like if you’re a mathematician, you had a novel proof, I think, and you just gave it the problem, and you saw it, and you’re like, “This proof is genuinely novel. You actually have to do a lot of things to come up with this. I had to sit and think about it for months,” or something.
And then if you saw the model successfully do that, I think you would just be like, “I can verify that this is correct. It is a sign that you have generalized from your training. You didn’t just see this somewhere because I just came up with it myself, and you were able to replicate that.” That’s the kind of thing where I’m like, for me, the more that models can do things like that, the more I would be like, “Oh, this is very real.” Because then, I don’t know, I can verify that that’s extremely, extremely capable.
Lex Fridman
You’ve interacted with AI a lot. What do you think makes humans special?
You’ve interacted with AI a lot. What do you think makes humans special?
Amanda
Oh, good question.
Oh, good question.
Lex Fridman
Maybe in a way that the universe is much better off that we’re in it, and that we should definitely survive and spread throughout the universe.
Maybe in a way that the universe is much better off that we’re in it, and that we should definitely survive and spread throughout the universe.
Amanda
Yeah, it’s interesting because I think people focus so much on intelligence, especially with models. Look, intelligence is important because of what it does. It’s very useful. It does a lot of things in the world. And I’m like, you can imagine a world where height or strength would have played this role, and it’s just a trait like that. I’m like, it’s not intrinsically valuable. It’s valuable because of what it does, I think, for the most part. I mean, personally, I’m just like, I think humans and life in general is extremely magical. I don’t know. Not everyone agrees with this. I’m flagging. But we have this whole universe, and there’s all of these objects, there’s beautiful stars and there’s galaxies. Then, I don’t know, I’m just like, on this planet there are these creatures that have this ability to observe that, and they are seeing it, they are experiencing it.
Yeah, it’s interesting because I think people focus so much on intelligence, especially with models. Look, intelligence is important because of what it does. It’s very useful. It does a lot of things in the world. And I’m like, you can imagine a world where height or strength would have played this role, and it’s just a trait like that. I’m like, it’s not intrinsically valuable. It’s valuable because of what it does, I think, for the most part. I mean, personally, I’m just like, I think humans and life in general is extremely magical. I don’t know. Not everyone agrees with this. I’m flagging. But we have this whole universe, and there’s all of these objects, there’s beautiful stars and there’s galaxies. Then, I don’t know, I’m just like, on this planet there are these creatures that have this ability to observe that, and they are seeing it, they are experiencing it.
And I’m just like, that, if you try to explain… I’m imagining trying to explain to, I don’t know, someone. For some reason, they’ve never encountered the world, or science, or anything. And I think that everything, all of our physics and everything in the world, it’s all extremely exciting. But then you say, “Oh, and plus there’s this thing that it is to be a thing and observe in the world,” and you see this inner cinema. And I think they would be like, “Hang on, wait, pause. You just said something that is kind of wild sounding.” And so I’m like, we have this ability to experience the world. We feel pleasure, we feel suffering. We feel like a lot of complex things. Yeah. And maybe this is also why I think I also hear a lot about animals, for example, because I think they probably share this with us. So, I think that the things that make humans special insofar as I care about humans is probably more like their ability to feel an experience than it is them having these functional, useful traits.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. To feel and experience the beauty in the world. Yeah. To look at the stars. I hope there’s other alien civilizations out there, but if we’re it, it’s a pretty good thing.
Yeah. To feel and experience the beauty in the world. Yeah. To look at the stars. I hope there’s other alien civilizations out there, but if we’re it, it’s a pretty good thing.
Amanda
And that they’re having a good time.
And that they’re having a good time.
Lex Fridman
A very good time watching us.
A very good time watching us.
Amanda
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Well, thank you for this good time of a conversation and for the work you’re doing and for helping make Claude a great conversational partner. And thank you for talking today.
Well, thank you for this good time of a conversation and for the work you’re doing and for helping make Claude a great conversational partner. And thank you for talking today.
Amanda
Yeah, thanks for talking.
Yeah, thanks for talking.
Chris Olah
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Amanda Askell. And now, dear friends, here’s Chris Olah. Can you describe this fascinating field of mechanistic interpretability, aka mech interp, the history of the field, and where it stands today?
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Amanda Askell. And now, dear friends, here’s Chris Olah. Can you describe this fascinating field of mechanistic interpretability, aka mech interp, the history of the field, and where it stands today?
Chris Olah
I think one useful way to think about neural networks is that we don’t program, we don’t make them, we grow them. We have these neural network architectures that we design and we have these loss objectives that we create. And the neural network architecture, it’s kind of like a scaffold that the circuits grow on. It starts off with some random things, and it grows, and it’s almost like the objective that we train for is this light. And so we create the scaffold that it grows on, and we create the light that it grows towards. But the thing that we actually create, it’s this almost biological entity or organism that we’re studying.
I think one useful way to think about neural networks is that we don’t program, we don’t make them, we grow them. We have these neural network architectures that we design and we have these loss objectives that we create. And the neural network architecture, it’s kind of like a scaffold that the circuits grow on. It starts off with some random things, and it grows, and it’s almost like the objective that we train for is this light. And so we create the scaffold that it grows on, and we create the light that it grows towards. But the thing that we actually create, it’s this almost biological entity or organism that we’re studying.
And so it’s very, very different from any kind of regular software engineering because, at the end of the day, we end up with this artifact that can do all these amazing things. It can write essays and translate and understand images. It can do all these things that we have no idea how to directly create a computer program to do. And it can do that because we grew it. We didn’t write it. We didn’t create it. And so then that leaves open this question at the end, which is what the hell is going on inside these systems? And that is, to me, a really deep and exciting question. It’s a really exciting scientific question. To me, it is like the question that is just screaming out, it’s calling out for us to go and answer it when we talk about neural networks. And I think it’s also a very deep question for safety reasons.
Lex Fridman
And mechanistic interpretability, I guess, is closer to maybe neurobiology?
And mechanistic interpretability, I guess, is closer to maybe neurobiology?
Chris Olah
Yeah, yeah, I think that’s right. So, maybe to give an example of the kind of thing that has been done that I wouldn’t consider to be mechanistic interpretability. There was, for a long time, a lot of work on saliency maps, where you would take an image and you’d try to say, “The model thinks this image is a dog. What part of the image made it think that it’s a dog?” And that tells you maybe something about the model if you can come up with a principled version of that, but it doesn’t really tell you what algorithms are running in the model, how is the model actually making that decision? Maybe it’s telling you something about what was important to it, if you can make that method work, but it isn’t telling you what are the algorithms that are running? How is it that the system’s able to do this thing that no one knew how to do?
Yeah, yeah, I think that’s right. So, maybe to give an example of the kind of thing that has been done that I wouldn’t consider to be mechanistic interpretability. There was, for a long time, a lot of work on saliency maps, where you would take an image and you’d try to say, “The model thinks this image is a dog. What part of the image made it think that it’s a dog?” And that tells you maybe something about the model if you can come up with a principled version of that, but it doesn’t really tell you what algorithms are running in the model, how is the model actually making that decision? Maybe it’s telling you something about what was important to it, if you can make that method work, but it isn’t telling you what are the algorithms that are running? How is it that the system’s able to do this thing that no one knew how to do?
And so I guess we started using the term mechanistic interpretability to try to draw that divide or to distinguish ourselves in the work that we were doing in some ways from some of these other things. And I think since then, it’s become this sort of umbrella term for a pretty wide variety of work. But I’d say that the things that are kind of distinctive are, I think, A, this focus on, we really want to get at the mechanisms. We want to get at algorithms. If you think of neural networks as being like a computer program, then the weights are kind of like a binary computer program. And we’d like to reverse engineer those weights and figure out what algorithms are running.
So okay, I think one way you might think of trying to understand a neural network is that it’s kind of like we have this compiled computer program, and the weights of the neural network are the binary. And when the neural network runs, that’s the activations. And our goal is ultimately to go and understand these weights. And so the project of mechanistic interpretability is to somehow figure out how do these weights correspond to algorithms? And in order to do that, you also have to understand the activations because the activations are like the memory. And if you imagine reverse engineering a computer program, and you have the binary instructions, in order to understand what a particular instruction means, you need to know what is stored in the memory that it’s operating on. And so those two things are very intertwined. So, mechanistic interpretability tends to be interested in both of those things.
Now, there’s a lot of work that’s interested in those things, especially there’s all this work on probing, which you might see as part of being mechanistic interpretability, although, again, it’s just a broad term, and not everyone who does that work would identify as doing mech interp. I think a thing that is maybe a little bit distinctive to the vibe of mech interp is I think people working in this space tend to think of neural networks as… Well, maybe one way to say it is the gradient descent is smarter than you. That gradient descent is actually really great.
The whole reason that we’re understanding these models is because we didn’t know how to write them in the first place. The gradient descent comes up with better solutions than us. And so I think that maybe another thing about mech interp is having almost a kind of humility, that we won’t guess a priori what’s going on inside the model. We have to have this sort of bottom up approach where we don’t assume that we should look for a particular thing, and that will be there, and that’s how it works. But instead, we look for the bottom up and discover what happens to exist in these models and study them that way.
Features, Circuits, Universality
Lex Fridman
But the very fact that it’s possible to do, and as you and others have shown over time, things like universality, that the wisdom of the gradient descent creates features and circuits, creates things universally across different kinds of networks that are useful, and that makes the whole field possible.
But the very fact that it’s possible to do, and as you and others have shown over time, things like universality, that the wisdom of the gradient descent creates features and circuits, creates things universally across different kinds of networks that are useful, and that makes the whole field possible.
Chris Olah
Yeah. So this, actually, is indeed a really remarkable and exciting thing, where it does seem like, at least to some extent, the same elements, the same features and circuits, form again and again. You can look at every vision model, and you’ll find curve detectors, and you’ll find high-low-frequency detectors. And in fact, there’s some reason to think that the same things form across biological neural networks and artificial neural networks. So, a famous example is vision models in the early layers. They have Gabor filters, and Gabor filters are something that neuroscientists are interested in and have thought a lot about. We find curve detectors in these models. Curve detectors are also found in monkeys. We discover these high-low-frequency detectors, and then some follow-up work went and discovered them in rats or mice. So, they were found first in artificial neural networks and then found in biological neural networks.
Yeah. So this, actually, is indeed a really remarkable and exciting thing, where it does seem like, at least to some extent, the same elements, the same features and circuits, form again and again. You can look at every vision model, and you’ll find curve detectors, and you’ll find high-low-frequency detectors. And in fact, there’s some reason to think that the same things form across biological neural networks and artificial neural networks. So, a famous example is vision models in the early layers. They have Gabor filters, and Gabor filters are something that neuroscientists are interested in and have thought a lot about. We find curve detectors in these models. Curve detectors are also found in monkeys. We discover these high-low-frequency detectors, and then some follow-up work went and discovered them in rats or mice. So, they were found first in artificial neural networks and then found in biological neural networks.
There’s this really famous result on grandmother neurons or the Halle Berry neuron from Quiroga et al. And we found very similar things in vision models, where this is while I was still at OpenAI, and I was looking at their clip model, and you find these neurons that respond to the same entities in images. And also, to give a concrete example there, we found that there was a Donald Trump neuron. For some reason, I guess everyone likes to talk about Donald Trump. And Donald Trump was very prominent, was a very hot topic at that time. So, every neural network we looked at, we would find a dedicated neuron for Donald Trump. That was the only person who had always had a dedicated neuron. Sometimes you’d have an Obama neuron, sometimes you’d have a Clinton neuron, but Trump always had a dedicated neuron. So, it responds to pictures of his face and the word Trump, all of these things, right? And so it’s not responding to a particular example, or it’s not just responding to his face, it’s abstracting over this general concept. So in any case, that’s very similar to these Quiroga et al results.
So, this evidence that this phenomenon of universality, the same things form across both artificial and natural neural networks, that’s a pretty amazing thing if that’s true. Well, I think the thing that suggests is that gradient descent is finding the right ways to cut things apart, in some sense, that many systems converge on and many different neural networks architectures converge on. Now there’s some set of abstractions that are a very natural way to cut apart the problem and that a lot of systems are going to converge on. I don’t know anything about neuroscience. This is just my wild speculation from what we’ve seen.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That would be beautiful if it’s sort of agnostic to the medium of the model that’s used to form the representation.
Yeah. That would be beautiful if it’s sort of agnostic to the medium of the model that’s used to form the representation.
Chris Olah
Yeah, yeah. And it’s kind of a wild speculation-based… We only have a few data points that’s just this, but it does seem like there’s some sense in which the same things form again and again both certainly in natural neural networks and also artificially, or in biology.
Yeah, yeah. And it’s kind of a wild speculation-based… We only have a few data points that’s just this, but it does seem like there’s some sense in which the same things form again and again both certainly in natural neural networks and also artificially, or in biology.
Lex Fridman
And the intuition behind that would be that in order to be useful in understanding the real world, you need all the same kind of stuff.
And the intuition behind that would be that in order to be useful in understanding the real world, you need all the same kind of stuff.
Chris Olah
Yeah. Well, if we pick, I don’t know, the idea of a dog, right? There’s some sense in which the idea of a dog is like a natural category in the universe, or something like this. There’s some reason. It’s not just a weird quirk of how humans think about the world that we have this concept of a dog. Or if you have the idea of a line. Look around us. There are lines. It’s the simplest way to understand this room, in some sense, is to have the idea of a line. And so I think that that would be my instinct for why this happens.
Yeah. Well, if we pick, I don’t know, the idea of a dog, right? There’s some sense in which the idea of a dog is like a natural category in the universe, or something like this. There’s some reason. It’s not just a weird quirk of how humans think about the world that we have this concept of a dog. Or if you have the idea of a line. Look around us. There are lines. It’s the simplest way to understand this room, in some sense, is to have the idea of a line. And so I think that that would be my instinct for why this happens.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You need a curved line to understand a circle, and you need all those shapes to understand bigger things. And it’s a hierarchy of concepts that are formed. Yeah.
Yeah. You need a curved line to understand a circle, and you need all those shapes to understand bigger things. And it’s a hierarchy of concepts that are formed. Yeah.
Chris Olah
And maybe there are ways to go and describe images without reference to those things, right? But they’re not the simplest way, or the most economical way, or something like this. And so systems converge to these strategies would be my wild hypothesis.
And maybe there are ways to go and describe images without reference to those things, right? But they’re not the simplest way, or the most economical way, or something like this. And so systems converge to these strategies would be my wild hypothesis.
Lex Fridman
Can you talk through some of the building blocks that we’ve been referencing of features and circuits? So, I think you first described them in a 2020 paper, Zoom In: An Introduction to Circuits.
Can you talk through some of the building blocks that we’ve been referencing of features and circuits? So, I think you first described them in a 2020 paper, Zoom In: An Introduction to Circuits.
Chris Olah
Absolutely. So, maybe I’ll start by just describing some phenomena, and then we can build to the idea of features and circuits.
Absolutely. So, maybe I’ll start by just describing some phenomena, and then we can build to the idea of features and circuits.
Lex Fridman
Wonderful.
Wonderful.
Chris Olah
So, if you spent quite a few years, maybe five years, to some extent, with other things, studying this one particular model, Inception V1, which is this one vision model… It was state-of-the-art in 2015, and very much not state-of-the-art anymore. And it has maybe about 10,000 neurons in it. I spent a lot of time looking at the 10,000 neurons, odd neurons of Inception V1. One of the interesting things is there are lots of neurons that don’t have some obvious interpretable meaning, but there’s a lot of neurons in Inception V1 that do have really clean interpretable meanings. So, you find neurons that just really do seem to detect curves, and you find neurons that really do seem to detect cars, and car wheels, and car windows, and floppy ears of dogs, and dogs with long snouts facing to the right, and dogs with long snouts facing to the left, and different kinds of fur.
So, if you spent quite a few years, maybe five years, to some extent, with other things, studying this one particular model, Inception V1, which is this one vision model… It was state-of-the-art in 2015, and very much not state-of-the-art anymore. And it has maybe about 10,000 neurons in it. I spent a lot of time looking at the 10,000 neurons, odd neurons of Inception V1. One of the interesting things is there are lots of neurons that don’t have some obvious interpretable meaning, but there’s a lot of neurons in Inception V1 that do have really clean interpretable meanings. So, you find neurons that just really do seem to detect curves, and you find neurons that really do seem to detect cars, and car wheels, and car windows, and floppy ears of dogs, and dogs with long snouts facing to the right, and dogs with long snouts facing to the left, and different kinds of fur.
And there’s this whole beautiful edge detectors, line detectors, color contrast detectors, these beautiful things we call high-low-frequency detectors. I think looking at it, I sort of felt like a biologist. You’re looking at this sort of new world of proteins, and you’re discovering all these different proteins that interact. So, one way you could try to understand these models is in terms of neurons. You could try to be like, “Oh, there’s a dog detecting neuron, and here’s a car detecting neuron.” And it turns out you can actually ask how those connect together. So, you can go say, “Oh, I have this car detecting neuron. How was it built?” And it turns out, in the previous layer, it’s connected really strongly to a window detector, and a wheel detector, and a car body detector. And it looks for the window above the car, and the wheels below, and the car chrome in the middle, sort of everywhere, but especially on the lower part. And that’s sort of a recipe for a car, right?
Earlier, we said the thing we wanted from mech interp was to get algorithms to go and get, ask, “What is the algorithm that runs?” Well, here we’re just looking at the weights of the neural network and we’re reading off this recipe for detecting cars. It’s a very simple, crude recipe, but it’s there. And so we call that a circuit, this connection. Well, okay, so the problem is that not all of the neurons are interpretable. And there’s reason to think, we can get into this more later, that there’s this superposition hypothesis, there’s reason to think that sometimes the right unit to analyze things is combinations of neurons. So, sometimes it’s not that there’s a single neuron that represents, say, a car, but it actually turns out after you detect the car, the model hides a little bit of the car in the following layer, in a bunch of dog detectors.
Why is it doing that? Well, maybe it just doesn’t want to do that much work on cars at that point, and it’s storing it away to go and… So, it turns out, then, that this sort of subtle pattern of… There’s all these neurons that you think are dog detectors, and maybe they’re primarily that, but they all a little bit contribute to representing a car in that next layer. Okay? So, now we can’t really think… There might still be something, I don’t know, you could call it a car concept or something, but it no longer corresponds to a neuron. So, we need some term for these kind of neuron-like entities, these things that we would have liked the neurons to be, these idealized neurons. The things that are the nice neurons, but also maybe there’s more of them somehow hidden. And we call those features.
Lex Fridman
And then what are circuits?
And then what are circuits?
Chris Olah
So, circuits are these connections of features, right? So, when we have the car detector and it’s connected to a window detector and a wheel detector, and it looks for the wheels below and the windows on top, that’s a circuit. So, circuits are just collections of features connected by weights, and they implement algorithms. So, they tell us how are features used, how are they built, how do they connect together?
So, circuits are these connections of features, right? So, when we have the car detector and it’s connected to a window detector and a wheel detector, and it looks for the wheels below and the windows on top, that’s a circuit. So, circuits are just collections of features connected by weights, and they implement algorithms. So, they tell us how are features used, how are they built, how do they connect together?
So, maybe it’s worth trying to pin down what really is the core hypothesis here? And I think the core hypothesis is something we call the linear representation hypothesis. So, if we think about the car detector, the more it fires, the more we think of that as meaning, “Oh, the model is more and more confident that a car is present.” Or if it’s some combination of neurons that represent a car, the more that combination fires, the more we think the model thinks there’s a car present. This doesn’t have to be the case, right? You could imagine something where you have this car detector neuron and you think, “Ah, if it fires between one and two, that means one thing, but it means something totally different if it’s between three and four.” That would be a nonlinear representation. And in principle, models could do that. I think it’s sort of inefficient for them to do. If you try to think about how you’d implement computation like that, it’s kind of an annoying thing to do. But in principle, models can do that.
So, one way to think about the features and circuits sort of framework for thinking about things is that we’re thinking about things as being linear. We’re thinking about that if a neuron or a combination of neurons fires more, that means more of a particular thing being detected. And then that gives weight, a very clean interpretation as these edges between these entities that these features, and that that edge then has a meaning. So that’s, in some ways, the core thing. It’s like we can talk about this outside the context of neurons. Are you familiar with the Word2Vec results?
Lex Fridman
Mm- hmm.
Mm- hmm.
Chris Olah
You have king – man + woman = queen. Well, the reason you can do that kind of arithmetic is because you have a linear representation.
You have king – man + woman = queen. Well, the reason you can do that kind of arithmetic is because you have a linear representation.
Lex Fridman
Can you actually explain that representation a little bit? So first off, the feature is a direction of activation.
Can you actually explain that representation a little bit? So first off, the feature is a direction of activation.
Chris Olah
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Lex Fridman
You can do it that way. Can you do the – men + women, that, the Word2Vec stuff? Can you explain what that is, that work?
You can do it that way. Can you do the – men + women, that, the Word2Vec stuff? Can you explain what that is, that work?
Chris Olah
Yeah. So, there’s this very-
Yeah. So, there’s this very-
Lex Fridman
It’s such a simple, clean explanation of what we’re talking about.
It’s such a simple, clean explanation of what we’re talking about.
Chris Olah
Exactly. Yeah. So, there’s this very famous result, Word2Vec, by Tomas Mikolov et al, and there’s been tons of follow-up work exploring this. So, sometimes we create these word embeddings where we map every word to a vector. I mean, that in itself, by the way, is kind of a crazy thing if you haven’t thought about it before, right?
Exactly. Yeah. So, there’s this very famous result, Word2Vec, by Tomas Mikolov et al, and there’s been tons of follow-up work exploring this. So, sometimes we create these word embeddings where we map every word to a vector. I mean, that in itself, by the way, is kind of a crazy thing if you haven’t thought about it before, right?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Chris Olah
If you just learned about vectors in physics class, and I’m like, “Oh, I’m going to actually turn every word in the dictionary into a vector,” that’s kind of a crazy idea. Okay. But you could imagine all kinds of ways in which you might map words to vectors. But it seems like when we train neural networks, they like to go and map words to vectors such that there’s sort of linear structure in a particular sense, which is that directions have meaning. So, for instance, there will be some direction that seems to sort of correspond to gender, and male words will be far in one direction, and female words will be in another direction.
If you just learned about vectors in physics class, and I’m like, “Oh, I’m going to actually turn every word in the dictionary into a vector,” that’s kind of a crazy idea. Okay. But you could imagine all kinds of ways in which you might map words to vectors. But it seems like when we train neural networks, they like to go and map words to vectors such that there’s sort of linear structure in a particular sense, which is that directions have meaning. So, for instance, there will be some direction that seems to sort of correspond to gender, and male words will be far in one direction, and female words will be in another direction.
And the linear representation hypothesis is, you could think of it roughly as saying that that’s actually the fundamental thing that’s going on, that everything is just different directions have meanings, and adding different direction vectors together can represent concepts. And the Mikolov paper took that idea seriously, and one consequence of it is that you can do this game of playing arithmetic with words. So, you can do king and you can subtract off the word man and add the word woman. And so you’re sort of going and trying to switch the gender. And indeed, if you do that, the result will sort of be close to the word queen. And you can do other things like you can do sushi – Japan + Italy and get pizza, or different things like this, right?
So this is, in some sense, the core of the linear representation hypothesis. You can describe it just as a purely abstract thing about vector spaces. You can describe it as a statement about the activations of neurons, but it’s really about this property of directions having meaning. And in some ways, it’s even a little subtler than… It’s really, I think, mostly about this property of being able to add things together, that you can independently modify, say gender and royalty, or cuisine type, or country, and the concept of food by adding them.
Lex Fridman
Do you think the linear hypothesis holds-
Do you think the linear hypothesis holds-
Chris Olah
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… that carries scales?
… that carries scales?
Chris Olah
So far, I think everything I have seen is consistent with this hypothesis, and it doesn’t have to be that way, right? You can write down neural networks where you write weights such that they don’t have linear representations, where the right way to understand them is not in terms of linear representations. But I think every natural neural network I’ve seen has this property. There’s been one paper recently that there’s been some sort of pushing around the edge. So, I think there’s been some work recently studying multidimensional features where rather than a single direction, it’s more like a manifold of directions. This, to me, still seems like a linear representation.
So far, I think everything I have seen is consistent with this hypothesis, and it doesn’t have to be that way, right? You can write down neural networks where you write weights such that they don’t have linear representations, where the right way to understand them is not in terms of linear representations. But I think every natural neural network I’ve seen has this property. There’s been one paper recently that there’s been some sort of pushing around the edge. So, I think there’s been some work recently studying multidimensional features where rather than a single direction, it’s more like a manifold of directions. This, to me, still seems like a linear representation.
And then there’s been some other papers suggesting that maybe in very small models you get non-linear representations. I think that the jury’s still out on that. But I think everything that we’ve seen so far has been consistent with the linear representation hypothesis, and that’s wild. It doesn’t have to be that way. And yet I think that there’s a lot of evidence that certainly at least this is very, very widespread, and so far the evidence is consistent with that. And I think one thing you might say is you might say, “Well, Christopher, that’s a lot to go and to ride on. If we don’t know for sure this is true, and you’re investing it in neural networks as though it is true, isn’t that dangerous?”
But I think, actually, there’s a virtue in taking hypotheses seriously and pushing them as far as they can go. So, it might be that someday we discover something that isn’t consistent with a linear representation hypothesis, but science is full of hypotheses and theories that were wrong, and we learned a lot by working under them as an assumption and then going and pushing them as far as we can. I guess this is the heart of what Kuhn would call normal science. I don’t know. If you want, we can talk a lot about-
Lex Fridman
Kuhn.
Kuhn.
Chris Olah
… philosophy of science and-
… philosophy of science and-
Lex Fridman
That leads to the paradigm shift. So yeah, I love it, taking the hypothesis seriously, and take it to a natural conclusion.
That leads to the paradigm shift. So yeah, I love it, taking the hypothesis seriously, and take it to a natural conclusion.
Chris Olah
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Same with the scaling hypothesis. Same-
Same with the scaling hypothesis. Same-
Chris Olah
Exactly. Exactly. And-
Exactly. Exactly. And-
Lex Fridman
I love it.
I love it.
Chris Olah
One of my colleagues, Tom Henighan, who is a former physicist, made this really nice analogy to me of caloric theory where once upon a time, we thought that heat was actually this thing called caloric. And the reason hot objects would warm up cool objects is the caloric is flowing through them. And because we’re so used to thinking about heat in terms of the modern theory, that seems kind of silly. But it’s actually very hard to construct an experiment that disproves the caloric hypothesis. And you can actually do a lot of really useful work believing in caloric. For example, it turns out that the original combustion engines were developed by people who believed in the caloric theory. So, I think there’s a virtue in taking hypotheses seriously even when they might be wrong.
One of my colleagues, Tom Henighan, who is a former physicist, made this really nice analogy to me of caloric theory where once upon a time, we thought that heat was actually this thing called caloric. And the reason hot objects would warm up cool objects is the caloric is flowing through them. And because we’re so used to thinking about heat in terms of the modern theory, that seems kind of silly. But it’s actually very hard to construct an experiment that disproves the caloric hypothesis. And you can actually do a lot of really useful work believing in caloric. For example, it turns out that the original combustion engines were developed by people who believed in the caloric theory. So, I think there’s a virtue in taking hypotheses seriously even when they might be wrong.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s a deep philosophical truth to that. That’s kind of how I feel about space travel, like colonizing Mars. There’s a lot of people that criticize that. I think if you just assume we have to colonize Mars in order to have a backup for human civilization, even if that’s not true, that’s going to produce some interesting engineering and even scientific breakthroughs, I think.
Yeah, there’s a deep philosophical truth to that. That’s kind of how I feel about space travel, like colonizing Mars. There’s a lot of people that criticize that. I think if you just assume we have to colonize Mars in order to have a backup for human civilization, even if that’s not true, that’s going to produce some interesting engineering and even scientific breakthroughs, I think.
Chris Olah
Yeah. Actually, this is another thing that I think is really interesting. So, there’s a way in which I think it can be really useful for society to have people almost irrationally dedicated to investigating particular hypotheses because, well, it takes a lot to maintain scientific morale and really push on something when most scientific hypotheses end up being wrong. A lot of science doesn’t work out, and yet it’s very useful to… There’s a joke about Geoff Hinton, which is that Geoff Hinton has discovered how the brain works every year for the last 50 years. But I say that with really deep respect because, in fact, actually, that led to him doing some really great work.
Yeah. Actually, this is another thing that I think is really interesting. So, there’s a way in which I think it can be really useful for society to have people almost irrationally dedicated to investigating particular hypotheses because, well, it takes a lot to maintain scientific morale and really push on something when most scientific hypotheses end up being wrong. A lot of science doesn’t work out, and yet it’s very useful to… There’s a joke about Geoff Hinton, which is that Geoff Hinton has discovered how the brain works every year for the last 50 years. But I say that with really deep respect because, in fact, actually, that led to him doing some really great work.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he won the Nobel Prize now. Who’s laughing now?
Yeah, he won the Nobel Prize now. Who’s laughing now?
Chris Olah
Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. I think one wants to be able to pop up and recognize the appropriate level of confidence. But I think there’s also a lot of value in just being like, “I’m going to essentially assume, I’m going to condition on this problem being possible or this being broadly the right approach. And I’m just going to go and assume that for a while and go and work within that, and push really hard on it.” And if society has lots of people doing that for different things, that’s actually really useful in terms of going and-
Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. I think one wants to be able to pop up and recognize the appropriate level of confidence. But I think there’s also a lot of value in just being like, “I’m going to essentially assume, I’m going to condition on this problem being possible or this being broadly the right approach. And I’m just going to go and assume that for a while and go and work within that, and push really hard on it.” And if society has lots of people doing that for different things, that’s actually really useful in terms of going and-
Chris Olah
… things that’s actually really useful in terms of going and either really ruling things out. We can be like, “Well, that didn’t work and we know that somebody tried hard.” Or going and getting to something that does teach us something about the world.
… things that’s actually really useful in terms of going and either really ruling things out. We can be like, “Well, that didn’t work and we know that somebody tried hard.” Or going and getting to something that does teach us something about the world.
Superposition
Lex Fridman
So another interesting hypothesis is the super superposition hypothesis. Can you describe what superposition is?
So another interesting hypothesis is the super superposition hypothesis. Can you describe what superposition is?
Chris Olah
Yeah. So earlier we were talking about word defect, right? And we were talking about how maybe you have one direction that corresponds to gender and maybe another that corresponds to royalty and another one that corresponds to Italy and another one that corresponds to food and all of these things. Well, oftentimes maybe these word embeddings, they might be 500 dimensions, a thousand dimensions. And so if you believe that all of those directions were orthogonal, then you could only have 500 concepts. And I love pizza. But if I was going to go and give the 500 most important concepts in the English language, probably Italy wouldn’t be… it’s not obvious, at least that Italy would be one of them, right? Because you have to have things like plural and singular and verb and noun and adjective. And there’s a lot of things we have to get to before we get to Italy and Japan, and there’s a lot of countries in the world.
Yeah. So earlier we were talking about word defect, right? And we were talking about how maybe you have one direction that corresponds to gender and maybe another that corresponds to royalty and another one that corresponds to Italy and another one that corresponds to food and all of these things. Well, oftentimes maybe these word embeddings, they might be 500 dimensions, a thousand dimensions. And so if you believe that all of those directions were orthogonal, then you could only have 500 concepts. And I love pizza. But if I was going to go and give the 500 most important concepts in the English language, probably Italy wouldn’t be… it’s not obvious, at least that Italy would be one of them, right? Because you have to have things like plural and singular and verb and noun and adjective. And there’s a lot of things we have to get to before we get to Italy and Japan, and there’s a lot of countries in the world.
And so how might it be that models could simultaneously have the linear representation hypothesis be true and also represent more things than they have directions? So what does that mean? Well, okay, so if linear representation hypothesis is true, something interesting has to be going on. Now, I’ll tell you one more interesting thing before we go, and we do that, which is earlier we were talking about all these polysemantic neurons, these neurons that when we were looking at inception V1, these nice neurons that the car detector and the curve detector and so on that respond to lots of very coherent things. But it’s lots of neurons that respond to a bunch of unrelated things. And that’s also an interesting phenomenon. And it turns out as well that even these neurons that are really, really clean, if you look at the weak activations, so if you look at the activations where it’s activating 5% of the maximum activation, it’s really not the core thing that it’s expecting.
So if you look at a curve detector for instance, and you look at the places where it’s 5% active, you could interpret it just as noise or it could be that it’s doing something else there. Okay? So how could that be? Well, there’s this amazing thing in mathematics called compressed sensing, and it’s actually this very surprising fact where if you have a high dimensional space and you project it into a low dimensional space, ordinarily you can’t go and sort of un-projected and get back your high dimensional vector, you threw information away. This is like you can’t invert a rectangular matrix. You can only invert square matrices. But it turns out that that’s actually not quite true. If I tell you that the high-dimensional vector was sparse, so it’s mostly zeros, then it turns out that you can often go and find back the high-dimensional vector with very high probability.
So that’s a surprising fact, right? It says that you can have this high-dimensional vector space, and as long as things are sparse, you can project it down, you can have a lower-dimensional projection of it, and that works. So the superstition hypothesis is saying that that’s what’s going on in neural networks, for instance, that’s what’s going on in word embeddings. The word embeddings are able to simultaneously have directions be the meaningful thing, and by exploiting the fact that they’re operating on a fairly high-dimensional space, they’re actually… and the fact that these concepts are sparse, you usually aren’t talking about Japan and Italy at the same time. Most of those concepts, in most instances, Japan and Italy are both zero. They’re not present at all. And if that’s true, then you can go and have it be the case that you can have many more of these sort of directions that are meaningful, these features than you have dimensions.
And similarly, when we’re talking about neurons, you can have many more concepts than you have neurons. So that’s at a high level, the superstition hypothesis. Now it has this even wilder implication, which is to go and say that neural networks, it may not just be the case that the representations are like this, but the computation may also be like this. The connections between all of them. And so in some sense, neural networks may be shadows of much larger sparser neural networks. And what we see are these projections. And the strongest version of superstition hypothesis would be to take that really seriously and sort of say there actually is in some sense this upstairs model where the neurons are really sparse and all interpleural, and the weights between them are these really sparse circuits. And that’s what we’re studying. And the thing that we’re observing is the shadow of evidence. We need to find the original object.
Lex Fridman
And the process of learning is trying to construct a compression of the upstairs model that doesn’t lose too much information in the projection.
And the process of learning is trying to construct a compression of the upstairs model that doesn’t lose too much information in the projection.
Chris Olah
Yeah, it’s finding how to fit it efficiently or something like this. The gradient descent is doing this and in fact, so this sort of says that gradient descent, it could just represent a dense neural network, but it sort of says that gradient descent is implicitly searching over the space of extremely sparse models that could be projected into this low-dimensional space. And this large body of work of people going and trying to study sparse neural networks where you go and you have… you could design neural networks where the edges are sparse and the activations are sparse.
Yeah, it’s finding how to fit it efficiently or something like this. The gradient descent is doing this and in fact, so this sort of says that gradient descent, it could just represent a dense neural network, but it sort of says that gradient descent is implicitly searching over the space of extremely sparse models that could be projected into this low-dimensional space. And this large body of work of people going and trying to study sparse neural networks where you go and you have… you could design neural networks where the edges are sparse and the activations are sparse.
And my sense is that work has generally, it feels very principled, it makes so much sense, and yet that work hasn’t really panned out that well, is my impression broadly. And I think that a potential answer for that is that actually the neural network is already sparse in some sense. You were trying to go and do this. Gradient descent was actually behind the scenes going and searching more efficiently than you could through the space of sparse models and going and learning whatever sparse model was most efficient. And then figuring out how to fold it down nicely to go and run conveniently on your GPU, which does as nice dense matrix multiplies. And that you just can’t beat that.
Lex Fridman
How many concepts do you think can be shoved into a neural network?
How many concepts do you think can be shoved into a neural network?
Chris Olah
Depends on how sparse they are. So there’s probably an upper bound from the number of parameters because you still have to have print weights that go and connect them together. So that’s one upper bound. There are in fact all these lovely results from compressed sensing and the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma and things like this that they basically tell you that if you have a vector space and you want to have almost orthogonal vectors, which is sort of probably the thing that you want here. So you’re going to say, “Well, I’m going to give up on having my concepts, my features be strictly orthogonal, but I’d like them to not interfere that much. I’m going to have to ask them to be almost orthogonal.”
Depends on how sparse they are. So there’s probably an upper bound from the number of parameters because you still have to have print weights that go and connect them together. So that’s one upper bound. There are in fact all these lovely results from compressed sensing and the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma and things like this that they basically tell you that if you have a vector space and you want to have almost orthogonal vectors, which is sort of probably the thing that you want here. So you’re going to say, “Well, I’m going to give up on having my concepts, my features be strictly orthogonal, but I’d like them to not interfere that much. I’m going to have to ask them to be almost orthogonal.”
Then this would say that it’s actually for, once you set a threshold for what you’re willing to accept in terms of how much cosine similarity there is, that’s actually exponential in the number of neurons that you have. So at some point, that’s not going to even be the limiting factor, but there’s some beautiful results there. And in fact, it’s probably even better than that in some sense because that’s sort of for saying that any random set of features could be active. But in fact the features have sort of a correlational structure where some features are more likely to co-occur and other ones are less likely to co-occur. And so neural networks, my guest would be, could do very well in terms of going and packing things to the point that’s probably not the limiting factor.
Lex Fridman
How does the problem of polysemanticity enter the picture here?
How does the problem of polysemanticity enter the picture here?
Chris Olah
Polysemanticity is this phenomenon we observe where you look at many neurons and the neuron doesn’t just sort of represent one concept, it’s not a clean feature. It responds to a bunch of unrelated things. And superstition you can think of as being a hypothesis that explains the observation of polysemanticity. So polysemanticity is this observed phenomenon and superstition is a hypothesis that would explain it along with some other things.
Polysemanticity is this phenomenon we observe where you look at many neurons and the neuron doesn’t just sort of represent one concept, it’s not a clean feature. It responds to a bunch of unrelated things. And superstition you can think of as being a hypothesis that explains the observation of polysemanticity. So polysemanticity is this observed phenomenon and superstition is a hypothesis that would explain it along with some other things.
Lex Fridman
So that makes Mechinterp more difficult.
So that makes Mechinterp more difficult.
Chris Olah
Right. So if you’re trying to understand things in terms of individual neurons and you have polysemantic neurons, you’re in an awful lot of trouble. The easiest answer is like, “Okay, well you’re looking at the neurons, you’re trying to understand them. This one responds for a lot of things. It doesn’t have a nice meaning. Okay, that’s bad.” Another thing you could ask is ultimately we want to understand the weights. And if you have two polysemantic neurons and each one responds to three things and then the other neuron responds to three things and you have a wait between them, what does that mean? Does it mean that all three, there’s these nine interactions going on?
Right. So if you’re trying to understand things in terms of individual neurons and you have polysemantic neurons, you’re in an awful lot of trouble. The easiest answer is like, “Okay, well you’re looking at the neurons, you’re trying to understand them. This one responds for a lot of things. It doesn’t have a nice meaning. Okay, that’s bad.” Another thing you could ask is ultimately we want to understand the weights. And if you have two polysemantic neurons and each one responds to three things and then the other neuron responds to three things and you have a wait between them, what does that mean? Does it mean that all three, there’s these nine interactions going on?
It’s a very weird thing, but there’s also a deeper reason, which is related to the fact that neural networks operate on really high dimensional spaces. So I said that our goal was to understand neural networks and understand the mechanisms. And one thing you might say is, “Well, it’s just a mathematical function. Why not just look at it, right?” One of the earliest projects I did studied these neural networks that mapped two-dimensional spaces to two-dimensional spaces, and you can sort of interpret them in this beautiful way is like bending manifolds. Why can’t we do that? Well, as you have a higher dimensional space, the volume of that space in some sense is exponential in the number of inputs you have. And so you can’t just go and visualize it.
So we somehow need to break that apart. We need to somehow break that exponential space into a bunch of things, some non-exponential number of things that we can reason about independently. And the independence is crucial because it’s the independence that allows you to not have to think about all the exponential combinations of things. And things being monosomatic, things only having one meaning, things having a meaning, that is the key thing that allows you to think about them independently. And so I think if you want the deepest reason why we want to have interpretable monosomatic features, I think that’s really the deep reason.
Lex Fridman
And so the goal here as your recent work has been aiming at is how do we extract the monosomatic features from a neural net that has polysemantic features and all this mess.
And so the goal here as your recent work has been aiming at is how do we extract the monosomatic features from a neural net that has polysemantic features and all this mess.
Chris Olah
Yes, we observe these polysemantic neurons, we hypothesize that’s what’s going on is superposition. And if superposition is what’s going on, there’s actually a sort of well-established technique that is sort of the principled thing to do, which is dictionary learning. And it turns out if you do dictionary learning in particular, if you do sort of a nice efficient way that in some sense sort of nicely regularizes that as well called a sparse auto encoder. If you train a sparse auto encoder, these beautiful interpretable features start to just fall out where there weren’t any beforehand. So that’s not a thing that you would necessarily predict, but it turns out that works very, very well. To me, that seems like some non-trivial validation of linear representations and superposition.
Yes, we observe these polysemantic neurons, we hypothesize that’s what’s going on is superposition. And if superposition is what’s going on, there’s actually a sort of well-established technique that is sort of the principled thing to do, which is dictionary learning. And it turns out if you do dictionary learning in particular, if you do sort of a nice efficient way that in some sense sort of nicely regularizes that as well called a sparse auto encoder. If you train a sparse auto encoder, these beautiful interpretable features start to just fall out where there weren’t any beforehand. So that’s not a thing that you would necessarily predict, but it turns out that works very, very well. To me, that seems like some non-trivial validation of linear representations and superposition.
Lex Fridman
So with dictionary learning, you’re not looking for particular kind of categories. You don’t know what they are, they just emerge.
So with dictionary learning, you’re not looking for particular kind of categories. You don’t know what they are, they just emerge.
Chris Olah
Exactly. And this gets back to our earlier point when we’re not making assumptions. Gradient descent is smarter than us, so we’re not making assumptions about what’s there. I mean, one certainly could do that, right? One could assume that there’s a PHP feature and go and search for it, but we’re not doing that. We’re saying we don’t know what’s going to be there. Instead, we’re just going to go and let the sparse auto encoder discover the things that are there.
Exactly. And this gets back to our earlier point when we’re not making assumptions. Gradient descent is smarter than us, so we’re not making assumptions about what’s there. I mean, one certainly could do that, right? One could assume that there’s a PHP feature and go and search for it, but we’re not doing that. We’re saying we don’t know what’s going to be there. Instead, we’re just going to go and let the sparse auto encoder discover the things that are there.
Monosemanticity
Lex Fridman
So can you talk toward monosematicity paper from October last year? I heard a lot of nice breakthrough results.
So can you talk toward monosematicity paper from October last year? I heard a lot of nice breakthrough results.
Chris Olah
That’s very kind of you to describe it that way. Yeah, I mean, this was our first real success using sparse autoencoders. So we took a one-layer model, and it turns out if you go and you do dictionary learning on it, you find all these really nice interpretable features. So the Arabic feature, the Hebrew feature, the Base64 features were some examples that we studied in a lot of depth and really showed that they were what we thought they were. Turns out if you train a model twice as well and train two different models and do dictionary learning, you find analogous features in both of them. So that’s fun. You find all kinds of different features. So that was really just showing that this works. And I should mention that there was this Cunningham and all that had very similar results around the same time.
That’s very kind of you to describe it that way. Yeah, I mean, this was our first real success using sparse autoencoders. So we took a one-layer model, and it turns out if you go and you do dictionary learning on it, you find all these really nice interpretable features. So the Arabic feature, the Hebrew feature, the Base64 features were some examples that we studied in a lot of depth and really showed that they were what we thought they were. Turns out if you train a model twice as well and train two different models and do dictionary learning, you find analogous features in both of them. So that’s fun. You find all kinds of different features. So that was really just showing that this works. And I should mention that there was this Cunningham and all that had very similar results around the same time.
Lex Fridman
There’s something fun about doing these kinds of small scale experiments and finding that it’s actually working.
There’s something fun about doing these kinds of small scale experiments and finding that it’s actually working.
Chris Olah
Yeah, well, and that there’s so much structure here. So maybe stepping back, for a while I thought that maybe all this mechanistic interpolate work, the end result was going to be that I would have an explanation for why it was sort of very hard and not going to be tractable. We’d be like, “Well, there’s this problem with supersession and it turns out supersession is really hard and we’re kind of screwed, but that’s not what happened. In fact, a very natural simple technique just works. And so then that’s actually a very good situation. I think this is a sort of hard research problem and it’s got a lot of research risk and it might still very well fail, but I think that some very significant amount of research risk was put behind us when that started to work.
Yeah, well, and that there’s so much structure here. So maybe stepping back, for a while I thought that maybe all this mechanistic interpolate work, the end result was going to be that I would have an explanation for why it was sort of very hard and not going to be tractable. We’d be like, “Well, there’s this problem with supersession and it turns out supersession is really hard and we’re kind of screwed, but that’s not what happened. In fact, a very natural simple technique just works. And so then that’s actually a very good situation. I think this is a sort of hard research problem and it’s got a lot of research risk and it might still very well fail, but I think that some very significant amount of research risk was put behind us when that started to work.
Lex Fridman
Can you describe what kind of features can be extracted in this way?
Can you describe what kind of features can be extracted in this way?
Chris Olah
Well, so it depends on the model that you’re studying. So the larger the model, the more sophisticated they’re going to be. And we’ll probably talk about follow up work in a minute. But in these one layer models, so some very common things I think were languages, both programming languages and natural languages. There were a lot of features that were specific words in specific contexts, so the. And I think really the way to think about this is that the is likely about to be followed by a noun. So you could think of this as the feature, but you could also think of this as protecting a specific noun feature. And there would be these features that would fire for the in the context of say, a legal document or a mathematical document or something like this. And so maybe in the context of math, you’re like the, and then predict vector or matrix, all these mathematical words, whereas in other contexts you would predict other things, that was common.
Well, so it depends on the model that you’re studying. So the larger the model, the more sophisticated they’re going to be. And we’ll probably talk about follow up work in a minute. But in these one layer models, so some very common things I think were languages, both programming languages and natural languages. There were a lot of features that were specific words in specific contexts, so the. And I think really the way to think about this is that the is likely about to be followed by a noun. So you could think of this as the feature, but you could also think of this as protecting a specific noun feature. And there would be these features that would fire for the in the context of say, a legal document or a mathematical document or something like this. And so maybe in the context of math, you’re like the, and then predict vector or matrix, all these mathematical words, whereas in other contexts you would predict other things, that was common.
Lex Fridman
And basically we need clever humans to assign labels to what we’re seeing.
And basically we need clever humans to assign labels to what we’re seeing.
Chris Olah
Yes. So the only thing this is doing is that sort of unfolding things for you. So if everything was sort of folded over top of it, serialization folded everything on top of itself and you can’t really see it, this is unfolding it. But now you still have a very complex thing to try to understand. So then you have to do a bunch of work understanding what these are, and some are really subtle. There’s some really cool things even in this one layer model about Unicode, where of course some languages are in Unicode, and the tokenizer won’t necessarily have a dedicated token for every Unicode character. So instead, what you’ll have is you’ll have these patterns of alternating token or alternating tokens that each represent half of a Unicode character.
Yes. So the only thing this is doing is that sort of unfolding things for you. So if everything was sort of folded over top of it, serialization folded everything on top of itself and you can’t really see it, this is unfolding it. But now you still have a very complex thing to try to understand. So then you have to do a bunch of work understanding what these are, and some are really subtle. There’s some really cool things even in this one layer model about Unicode, where of course some languages are in Unicode, and the tokenizer won’t necessarily have a dedicated token for every Unicode character. So instead, what you’ll have is you’ll have these patterns of alternating token or alternating tokens that each represent half of a Unicode character.
And you have a different feature that goes and activates on the opposing ones to be like, “Okay, I just finished a character, go and predict next prefix. Then okay, I’m on the prefix, predict a reasonable suffix.” And you have to alternate back and forth. So these swap layer models are really interesting. And I mean there’s another thing that you might think, “Okay, there would just be one Base64 feature, but it turns out there’s actually a bunch of Base64 features because you can have English text encoded as Base64, and that has a very different distribution of Base64 tokens than regular. And there’s some things about tokenization as well that it can exploit. And I don’t know, there’s all kinds of fun stuff.
Lex Fridman
How difficult is the task of assigning labels to what’s going on? Can this be automated by AI?
How difficult is the task of assigning labels to what’s going on? Can this be automated by AI?
Chris Olah
Well, I think it depends on the feature, and it also depends on how much you trust your AI. So there’s a lot of work doing automated interoperability. I think that’s a really exciting direction, and we do a fair amount of automated interoperability and have Claude go and label our features.
Well, I think it depends on the feature, and it also depends on how much you trust your AI. So there’s a lot of work doing automated interoperability. I think that’s a really exciting direction, and we do a fair amount of automated interoperability and have Claude go and label our features.
Lex Fridman
Is there some fun moments where it’s totally right or it’s totally wrong?
Is there some fun moments where it’s totally right or it’s totally wrong?
Chris Olah
Yeah, well, I think it’s very common that it says something very general, which is true in some sense, but not really picking up on the specific of what’s going on. So I think that’s a pretty common situation. You don’t know that I have a particularly amusing one.
Yeah, well, I think it’s very common that it says something very general, which is true in some sense, but not really picking up on the specific of what’s going on. So I think that’s a pretty common situation. You don’t know that I have a particularly amusing one.
Lex Fridman
That’s interesting. That little gap between it is true, but it doesn’t quite get to the deep nuance of a thing. That’s a general challenge, it’s already an incredible caution that can say a true thing, but it’s missing the depth sometimes. And in this context, it’s like the ARC challenge, the sort of IQ type of tests. It feels like figuring out what a feature represents is a little puzzle you have to solve.
That’s interesting. That little gap between it is true, but it doesn’t quite get to the deep nuance of a thing. That’s a general challenge, it’s already an incredible caution that can say a true thing, but it’s missing the depth sometimes. And in this context, it’s like the ARC challenge, the sort of IQ type of tests. It feels like figuring out what a feature represents is a little puzzle you have to solve.
Chris Olah
Yeah. And I think that sometimes they’re easier and sometimes they’re harder as well. Yeah, I think that’s tricky. There’s another thing which I don’t know, maybe in some ways this is my aesthetic coming in, but I’ll try to give you a rationalization. I’m actually a little suspicious of automated interoperability, and I think that partly just that I want humans to understand neural networks. And if the neural network is understanding it for me, I don’t quite like that, but I do have a bit of… In some ways, I’m sort of like the mathematicians who are like, “If there’s a computer automated proof, it doesn’t count.” They won’t understand it. But I do also think that there is this kind of reflections on trusting trust type issue where there’s this famous talk about when you’re writing a computer program, you have to trust your compiler.
Yeah. And I think that sometimes they’re easier and sometimes they’re harder as well. Yeah, I think that’s tricky. There’s another thing which I don’t know, maybe in some ways this is my aesthetic coming in, but I’ll try to give you a rationalization. I’m actually a little suspicious of automated interoperability, and I think that partly just that I want humans to understand neural networks. And if the neural network is understanding it for me, I don’t quite like that, but I do have a bit of… In some ways, I’m sort of like the mathematicians who are like, “If there’s a computer automated proof, it doesn’t count.” They won’t understand it. But I do also think that there is this kind of reflections on trusting trust type issue where there’s this famous talk about when you’re writing a computer program, you have to trust your compiler.
And if there was malware in your compiler, then it could go and inject malware into the next compiler and you’d be kind of in trouble, right? Well, if you’re using neural networks to go and verify that your neural networks are safe, the hypothesis that you’re trusting for is like, “Okay, well the neural network maybe isn’t safe and you have to worry about is there some way that it could be screwing with you? I think that’s not a big concern now, but I do wonder in the long run, if we have to use really powerful AI systems to go and audit our AI systems, is that actually something we can trust? But maybe I’m just rationalizing because I just want us to have to get to a point where humans understand everything.
Scaling Monosemanticity
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean that’s hilarious, especially as we talk about AI safety and looking for features that would be relevant to AI safety, like deception and so on. So let’s talk about the Scaling Monosematicity paper in May 2024. Okay. So what did it take to scale this, to apply to Claude 3 Sonnet?
Yeah, I mean that’s hilarious, especially as we talk about AI safety and looking for features that would be relevant to AI safety, like deception and so on. So let’s talk about the Scaling Monosematicity paper in May 2024. Okay. So what did it take to scale this, to apply to Claude 3 Sonnet?
Chris Olah
Well, a lot of GPUs.
Well, a lot of GPUs.
Lex Fridman
A lot more GPUs. Got it.
A lot more GPUs. Got it.
Chris Olah
But one of my teammates, Tom Henighan was involved in the original scaling laws work, and something that he was sort of interested in from very early on is are there scaling laws for interoperability? And so something he immediately did when this work started to succeed, and we started to have sparse autoencoders work, was he became very interested in what are the scaling laws for making sparse autoencoders larger and how does that relate to making the base model larger? And so it turns out this works really well and you can use it to sort of project, if you train a sparse autoencoder of a given size, how many tokens should you train on and so on. This was actually a very big help to us in scaling up this work, and made it a lot easier for us to go and train really large sparse autoencoders where it’s not training the big models, but it’s starting to get to a point where it’s actually expensive to go and train the really big ones.
But one of my teammates, Tom Henighan was involved in the original scaling laws work, and something that he was sort of interested in from very early on is are there scaling laws for interoperability? And so something he immediately did when this work started to succeed, and we started to have sparse autoencoders work, was he became very interested in what are the scaling laws for making sparse autoencoders larger and how does that relate to making the base model larger? And so it turns out this works really well and you can use it to sort of project, if you train a sparse autoencoder of a given size, how many tokens should you train on and so on. This was actually a very big help to us in scaling up this work, and made it a lot easier for us to go and train really large sparse autoencoders where it’s not training the big models, but it’s starting to get to a point where it’s actually expensive to go and train the really big ones.
Lex Fridman
I mean, you have to do all this stuff of splitting it across large CPUs-
I mean, you have to do all this stuff of splitting it across large CPUs-
Chris Olah
Oh, yeah. No, I mean there’s a huge engineering challenge here too, right? Yeah. So there’s a scientific question of how do you scale things effectively? And then there’s an enormous amount of engineering to go and scale this up. You have to chart it, you have to think very carefully about a lot of things. I’m lucky to work with a bunch of great engineers because I am definitely not a great engineer.
Oh, yeah. No, I mean there’s a huge engineering challenge here too, right? Yeah. So there’s a scientific question of how do you scale things effectively? And then there’s an enormous amount of engineering to go and scale this up. You have to chart it, you have to think very carefully about a lot of things. I’m lucky to work with a bunch of great engineers because I am definitely not a great engineer.
Lex Fridman
And the infrastructure especially. Yeah, for sure. So it turns out TLDR, it worked.
And the infrastructure especially. Yeah, for sure. So it turns out TLDR, it worked.
Chris Olah
It worked. Yeah. And I think this is important because you could have imagined a world where you set after towards monospecificity. Chris, this is great. It works on a one-layer model, but one-layer models are really idiosyncratic. Maybe that’s just something, maybe the linear representation hypothesis and superposition hypothesis is the right way to understand a one-layer model, but it’s not the right way to understand larger models. So I think, I mean, first of all, the Cunningham and all paper sort of cut through that a little bit and sort of suggested that this wasn’t the case.
It worked. Yeah. And I think this is important because you could have imagined a world where you set after towards monospecificity. Chris, this is great. It works on a one-layer model, but one-layer models are really idiosyncratic. Maybe that’s just something, maybe the linear representation hypothesis and superposition hypothesis is the right way to understand a one-layer model, but it’s not the right way to understand larger models. So I think, I mean, first of all, the Cunningham and all paper sort of cut through that a little bit and sort of suggested that this wasn’t the case.
But Scaling Monospecificity sort of I think was significant evidence that even for very large models, and we did it on Claude 3 Sonnet, which at that point was one of our production models. Even these models seemed to be substantially explained, at least by linear features. And doing dictionary learning on them works, and as you learn more features, you go and you explain more and more. So that’s, I think, quite a promising sign. And you find now really fascinating abstract features, and the features are also multimodal. They respond to images and texts for the same concept, which is fun.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Can you explain that? I mean, backdoor, there’s just a lot of examples that you can-
Yeah. Can you explain that? I mean, backdoor, there’s just a lot of examples that you can-
Chris Olah
Yeah. So maybe let’s start with that. One example to start, which is we found some features around security vulnerabilities and backdoorsing code. So turns out those are actually two different features. So there’s a security vulnerability feature, and if you force it active, Claude it will start to go and write security vulnerabilities like buffer overflows into code. And also fires for all kinds of things, some of the top data set examples where things like dash dash, disable SSL or something like this, which are sort of obviously really insecure.
Yeah. So maybe let’s start with that. One example to start, which is we found some features around security vulnerabilities and backdoorsing code. So turns out those are actually two different features. So there’s a security vulnerability feature, and if you force it active, Claude it will start to go and write security vulnerabilities like buffer overflows into code. And also fires for all kinds of things, some of the top data set examples where things like dash dash, disable SSL or something like this, which are sort of obviously really insecure.
Lex Fridman
So at this point, maybe it’s just because the examples are presented that way, it’s kind of surface a little bit more obvious examples. I guess the idea is that down the line it might be able to detect more nuance like deception or bugs or that kind of stuff.
So at this point, maybe it’s just because the examples are presented that way, it’s kind of surface a little bit more obvious examples. I guess the idea is that down the line it might be able to detect more nuance like deception or bugs or that kind of stuff.
Chris Olah
Yeah. Well, maybe I want to distinguish two things. So one is the complexity of the feature or the concept, right? And the other is the nuance of how subtle the examples we’re looking at, right?. So when we show the top data set examples, those are the most extreme examples that cause that feature to activate. And so it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t fire for more subtle things. So that insecure code feature, the stuff that it fires most strongly for are these really obvious disable the security type things, but it also fires for buffer overflows and more subtle security vulnerabilities in code. These features are all multimodal. You could ask it like, “What images activate this feature?” And it turns out that the security vulnerability feature activates for images of people clicking on Chrome to go past this website, the SSL certificate might be wrong or something like this.
Yeah. Well, maybe I want to distinguish two things. So one is the complexity of the feature or the concept, right? And the other is the nuance of how subtle the examples we’re looking at, right?. So when we show the top data set examples, those are the most extreme examples that cause that feature to activate. And so it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t fire for more subtle things. So that insecure code feature, the stuff that it fires most strongly for are these really obvious disable the security type things, but it also fires for buffer overflows and more subtle security vulnerabilities in code. These features are all multimodal. You could ask it like, “What images activate this feature?” And it turns out that the security vulnerability feature activates for images of people clicking on Chrome to go past this website, the SSL certificate might be wrong or something like this.
Another thing that’s very entertaining is there’s backdoors in code feature, like you activate it, it goes and Claude writes a backdoor that will go and dump your data to port or something. But you can ask, “Okay, what images activate the backdoor feature?” It was devices with hidden cameras in them. So there’s a whole apparently genre of people going and selling devices that look innocuous that have hidden cameras, and they have ads that has this hidden camera in it? And I guess that is the physical version of a backdoor. And so it sort of shows you how abstract these concepts are, and I just thought that was… I’m sort of sad that there’s a whole market of people selling devices like that, but I was kind of delighted that that was the thing that it came up with as the top image examples for the feature.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s nice. It’s multimodal. It’s multi almost context. It’s broad, strong definition of a singular concept. It’s nice.
Yeah, it’s nice. It’s multimodal. It’s multi almost context. It’s broad, strong definition of a singular concept. It’s nice.
Chris Olah
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
To me, one of the really interesting features, especially for AI safety, is deception and lying. And the possibility that these kinds of methods could detect lying in a model, especially get smarter and smarter and smarter. Presumably that’s a big threat over super intelligent model that it can deceive the people operating it as to its intentions or any of that kind of stuff. So what have you learned from detecting lying inside models?
To me, one of the really interesting features, especially for AI safety, is deception and lying. And the possibility that these kinds of methods could detect lying in a model, especially get smarter and smarter and smarter. Presumably that’s a big threat over super intelligent model that it can deceive the people operating it as to its intentions or any of that kind of stuff. So what have you learned from detecting lying inside models?
Chris Olah
Yeah, so I think we’re in some ways in early days for that, we find quite a few features related to deception and lying. There’s one feature where it fires for people lying and being deceptive, and you force it active and Claude starts lying to you. So we have a deception feature. I mean, there’s all kinds of other features about withholding information and not answering questions, features about power seeking and coups and stuff like that. So there’s a lot of features that are kind of related to spooky things, and if you force them active Claude will behave in ways that are… they’re not the kinds of behaviors you want.
Yeah, so I think we’re in some ways in early days for that, we find quite a few features related to deception and lying. There’s one feature where it fires for people lying and being deceptive, and you force it active and Claude starts lying to you. So we have a deception feature. I mean, there’s all kinds of other features about withholding information and not answering questions, features about power seeking and coups and stuff like that. So there’s a lot of features that are kind of related to spooky things, and if you force them active Claude will behave in ways that are… they’re not the kinds of behaviors you want.
Lex Fridman
What are possible next exciting directions to you in the space of Mechinterp?
What are possible next exciting directions to you in the space of Mechinterp?
Chris Olah
Well, there’s a lot of things. So for one thing, I would really like to get to a point where we have shortcuts where we can really understand not just the features, but then use that to understand the computation of models. That relief for me is the ultimate goal of this. And there’s been some work, we put out a few things. There’s a paper from Sam Marks that does some stuff like this, and there’s been, I’d say some work around the edges here. But I think there’s a lot more to do, and I think that will be a very exciting thing that’s related to a challenge we call interference weights. Where due to superstition, if you just sort of naively look at what features are connected together, there may be some weights that don’t exist in the upstairs model, but are just sort of artifacts of superstition. So that’s a technical challenge Related to that, I think another exciting direction is just you might think of sparse autoencoders as being kind of like a telescope. They allow us to look out and see all these features that are out there, and as we build better and better sparse autoencoders, we better and better at dictionary learning, we see more and more stars. And we zoom in on smaller and smaller stars. There’s a lot of evidence that we’re only still seeing a very small fraction of the stars. There’s a lot of matter in our neural network universe that we can’t observe yet. And it may be that we’ll never be able to have fine enough instruments to observe it, and maybe some of it just isn’t possible, isn’t computationally tractable to observe. So it’s sort of a kind of dark matter in not in maybe the sense of modern astronomy of early astronomy when we didn’t know what this unexplained matter is. And so I think a lot about that dark matter and whether we’ll ever observe it and what that means for safety if we can’t observe it, if some significant fraction of neural networks are not accessible to us.
Well, there’s a lot of things. So for one thing, I would really like to get to a point where we have shortcuts where we can really understand not just the features, but then use that to understand the computation of models. That relief for me is the ultimate goal of this. And there’s been some work, we put out a few things. There’s a paper from Sam Marks that does some stuff like this, and there’s been, I’d say some work around the edges here. But I think there’s a lot more to do, and I think that will be a very exciting thing that’s related to a challenge we call interference weights. Where due to superstition, if you just sort of naively look at what features are connected together, there may be some weights that don’t exist in the upstairs model, but are just sort of artifacts of superstition. So that’s a technical challenge Related to that, I think another exciting direction is just you might think of sparse autoencoders as being kind of like a telescope. They allow us to look out and see all these features that are out there, and as we build better and better sparse autoencoders, we better and better at dictionary learning, we see more and more stars. And we zoom in on smaller and smaller stars. There’s a lot of evidence that we’re only still seeing a very small fraction of the stars. There’s a lot of matter in our neural network universe that we can’t observe yet. And it may be that we’ll never be able to have fine enough instruments to observe it, and maybe some of it just isn’t possible, isn’t computationally tractable to observe. So it’s sort of a kind of dark matter in not in maybe the sense of modern astronomy of early astronomy when we didn’t know what this unexplained matter is. And so I think a lot about that dark matter and whether we’ll ever observe it and what that means for safety if we can’t observe it, if some significant fraction of neural networks are not accessible to us.
Macroscopic behavior of neural networks
Another question that I think a lot about is at the end of the day, mechanistic interpolation is this very microscopic approach to interpolation. It’s trying to understand things in a very fine-grained way, but a lot of the questions we care about are very macroscopic. We care about these questions about neural network behavior, and I think that’s the thing that I care most about. But there’s lots of other sort of larger-scale questions you might care about. And the nice thing about having a very microscopic approach is it’s maybe easier to ask, is this true? But the downside is its much further from the things we care about. And so we now have this ladder to climb. And I think there’s a question of will we be able to find, are there larger-scale abstractions that we can use to understand neural networks that can we get up from this very microscopic approach?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You’ve written about this as kind of organs question.
Yeah. You’ve written about this as kind of organs question.
Chris Olah
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Lex Fridman
If we think of interpretability as a kind of anatomy of neural networks, most of the circus threads involve studying tiny little veins looking at the small scale and individual neurons and how they connect. However, there are many natural questions that the small-scale approach doesn’t address. In contrast, the most prominent abstractions and biological anatomy involve larger-scale structures like individual organs, like the heart or entire organ systems like the respiratory system. And so we wonder, is there a respiratory system or heart or brain region of an artificial neural network?
If we think of interpretability as a kind of anatomy of neural networks, most of the circus threads involve studying tiny little veins looking at the small scale and individual neurons and how they connect. However, there are many natural questions that the small-scale approach doesn’t address. In contrast, the most prominent abstractions and biological anatomy involve larger-scale structures like individual organs, like the heart or entire organ systems like the respiratory system. And so we wonder, is there a respiratory system or heart or brain region of an artificial neural network?
Chris Olah
Yeah, exactly. And I mean, if you think about science, right? A lot of scientific fields investigate things at many level of abstraction. In biology, you have molecular biology studying proteins and molecules and so on, and they have cellular biology, and then you have histology studying tissues, and then you have anatomy, and then you have zoology, and then you have ecology. And so you have many, many levels of abstraction or physics, maybe you have a physics of individual particles, and then statistical physics gives you thermodynamics and things like this. And so you often have different levels of abstraction.
Yeah, exactly. And I mean, if you think about science, right? A lot of scientific fields investigate things at many level of abstraction. In biology, you have molecular biology studying proteins and molecules and so on, and they have cellular biology, and then you have histology studying tissues, and then you have anatomy, and then you have zoology, and then you have ecology. And so you have many, many levels of abstraction or physics, maybe you have a physics of individual particles, and then statistical physics gives you thermodynamics and things like this. And so you often have different levels of abstraction.
And I think that right now we have mechanistic interpretability, if it succeeds, is sort of like a microbiology of neural networks, but we want something more like anatomy. And a question you might ask is, “Why can’t you just go there directly?” And I think the answer is superstition, at least in significant part. It’s that it’s actually very hard to see this macroscopic structure without first sort of breaking down the microscopic structure in the right way and then studying how it connects together. But I’m hopeful that there is going to be something much larger than features and circuits and that we’re going to be able to have a story that involves much bigger things. And then you can sort of study in detail the parts you care about.
Lex Fridman
I suppose, in your biology, like a psychologist or a psychiatrist of a neural network.
I suppose, in your biology, like a psychologist or a psychiatrist of a neural network.
Chris Olah
And I think that the beautiful thing would be if we could go and rather than having disparate fields for those two things, if you could build a bridge between them, such that you could go and have all of your higher level distractions be grounded very firmly in this very solid, more rigorous, ideally foundation.
And I think that the beautiful thing would be if we could go and rather than having disparate fields for those two things, if you could build a bridge between them, such that you could go and have all of your higher level distractions be grounded very firmly in this very solid, more rigorous, ideally foundation.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the difference between the human brain, the biological neural network and the artificial neural network?
What do you think is the difference between the human brain, the biological neural network and the artificial neural network?
Chris Olah
Well, the neuroscientists have a much harder job than us. Sometimes I just count my blessings by how much easier my job is than the neuroscientists. So we can record from all the neurons. We can do that on arbitrary amounts of data. The neurons don’t change while you’re doing that, by the way. You can go and ablate neurons, you can edit the connections and so on, and then you can undo those changes. That’s pretty great. You can intervene on any neuron and force it active and see what happens. You know which neurons are connected to everything. Neuroscientists want to get the connectome, we have the connectome and we have it for much bigger than C. elegans. And then not only do we have the connectome, we know which neurons excite or inhibit each other, right? It’s not just that we know the binary mask, we know the weights. We can take gradients, we know computationally what each neuron does. I don’t know. The list goes on and on. We just have so many advantages over neuroscientists. And then despite having all those advantages, it’s really hard. And so one thing I do sometimes think is like, “Gosh, if it’s this hard for us, it seems impossible under the constraints of neuroscience or near impossible.” I don’t know. Maybe part of me is I’ve got a few neuroscientists on my team, maybe I’m sort of like, “Ah, the neuroscientists. Maybe some of them would like to have an easier problem that’s still very hard, and they could come and work on neural networks. And then after we figure out things in sort of the easy little pond of trying to understand neural networks, which is still very hard, then we could go back to biological neuroscience.”
Well, the neuroscientists have a much harder job than us. Sometimes I just count my blessings by how much easier my job is than the neuroscientists. So we can record from all the neurons. We can do that on arbitrary amounts of data. The neurons don’t change while you’re doing that, by the way. You can go and ablate neurons, you can edit the connections and so on, and then you can undo those changes. That’s pretty great. You can intervene on any neuron and force it active and see what happens. You know which neurons are connected to everything. Neuroscientists want to get the connectome, we have the connectome and we have it for much bigger than C. elegans. And then not only do we have the connectome, we know which neurons excite or inhibit each other, right? It’s not just that we know the binary mask, we know the weights. We can take gradients, we know computationally what each neuron does. I don’t know. The list goes on and on. We just have so many advantages over neuroscientists. And then despite having all those advantages, it’s really hard. And so one thing I do sometimes think is like, “Gosh, if it’s this hard for us, it seems impossible under the constraints of neuroscience or near impossible.” I don’t know. Maybe part of me is I’ve got a few neuroscientists on my team, maybe I’m sort of like, “Ah, the neuroscientists. Maybe some of them would like to have an easier problem that’s still very hard, and they could come and work on neural networks. And then after we figure out things in sort of the easy little pond of trying to understand neural networks, which is still very hard, then we could go back to biological neuroscience.”
Beauty of neural networks
Lex Fridman
I love what you’ve written about the goal of MechInterp research as two goals, safety and beauty. So can you talk about the beauty side of things?
I love what you’ve written about the goal of MechInterp research as two goals, safety and beauty. So can you talk about the beauty side of things?
Chris Olah
Yeah. So there’s this funny thing where I think some people are kind of disappointed by neural networks, I think, where they’re like, “Ah, neural networks, it’s just these simple rules. Then you just do a bunch of engineering to scale it up and it works really well. And where’s the complex ideas? This isn’t a very nice, beautiful scientific result.” And I sometimes think when people say that, I picture them being like, “Evolution is so boring. It’s just a bunch of simple rules. And you run evolution for a long time and you get biology. What a sucky way for biology to have turned out. Where’s the complex rules?” But the beauty is that the simplicity generates complexity.
Yeah. So there’s this funny thing where I think some people are kind of disappointed by neural networks, I think, where they’re like, “Ah, neural networks, it’s just these simple rules. Then you just do a bunch of engineering to scale it up and it works really well. And where’s the complex ideas? This isn’t a very nice, beautiful scientific result.” And I sometimes think when people say that, I picture them being like, “Evolution is so boring. It’s just a bunch of simple rules. And you run evolution for a long time and you get biology. What a sucky way for biology to have turned out. Where’s the complex rules?” But the beauty is that the simplicity generates complexity.
Biology has these simple rules and it gives rise to all the life and ecosystems that we see around us. All the beauty of nature, that all just comes from evolution and from something very simple in evolution. And similarly, I think that neural networks build, create enormous complexity and beauty inside and structure inside themselves that people generally don’t look at and don’t try to understand because it’s hard to understand. But I think that there is an incredibly rich structure to be discovered inside neural networks, a lot of very deep beauty if we’re just willing to take the time to go and see it and understand it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I love Mechinterp. The feeling like we are understanding or getting glimpses of understanding the magic that’s going on inside is really wonderful.
Yeah, I love Mechinterp. The feeling like we are understanding or getting glimpses of understanding the magic that’s going on inside is really wonderful.
Chris Olah
It feels to me like one of the questions that’s just calling out to be asked, and I’m sort of, I mean a lot of people are thinking about this, but I’m often surprised that not more are is how is it that we don’t know how to create computer systems that can do these things? And yet we have these amazing systems that we don’t know how to directly create computer programs that can do these things, but these neural networks can do all these amazing things. And it just feels like that is obviously the question that is calling out to be answered. If you have any degree of curiosity, it’s like, “How is it that humanity now has these artifacts that can do these things that we don’t know how to do?”
It feels to me like one of the questions that’s just calling out to be asked, and I’m sort of, I mean a lot of people are thinking about this, but I’m often surprised that not more are is how is it that we don’t know how to create computer systems that can do these things? And yet we have these amazing systems that we don’t know how to directly create computer programs that can do these things, but these neural networks can do all these amazing things. And it just feels like that is obviously the question that is calling out to be answered. If you have any degree of curiosity, it’s like, “How is it that humanity now has these artifacts that can do these things that we don’t know how to do?”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I love the image of the circus reaching towards the light of the objective function.
Yeah. I love the image of the circus reaching towards the light of the objective function.
Chris Olah
Yeah, it’s this organic thing that we’ve grown and we have no idea what we’ve grown.
Yeah, it’s this organic thing that we’ve grown and we have no idea what we’ve grown.
Lex Fridman
Well, thank you for working on safety, and thank you for appreciating the beauty of the things you discover. And thank you for talking today, Chris, this was wonderful.
Well, thank you for working on safety, and thank you for appreciating the beauty of the things you discover. And thank you for talking today, Chris, this was wonderful.
Chris Olah
Thank you for taking the time to chat as well.
Thank you for taking the time to chat as well.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Chris Ola and before that, with Dario Amodei and Amanda Askell. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Alan Watts. “The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Chris Ola and before that, with Dario Amodei and Amanda Askell. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Alan Watts. “The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Rick Spence: CIA, KGB, Illuminati, Secret Societies, Cults & Conspiracies | Lex Fridman Podcast #451
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #451 with Rick Spence.
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You have written and lectured about serial killers, secret societies, cults and intelligence agencies. So we can basically begin at any of these fascinating topics, but let’s begin with intelligence agencies. Which has been the most powerful intelligence agency in history?
So what I mean by that is that if you’re looking at the modern SVR or FSB, which are just two different organizations that used to be part of the one big KGB or the KGB or its predecessors, the Checka, you’re really going back to the late 19th century and the Imperial Russian Intelligence Security Service, generally known as the Okhrana or Okhrana.
It’s really the Department of Police, the special Corps of Gendarmes. Their primary job was protecting the imperial regime and protecting it against imperial or other interior enemies, Revolutionaries for the most part. They got very, very good at that by co-opting people within those movements, infiltrating and recruiting informers, [inaudible 00:02:41] provocateurs. In fact, they excelled at the [inaudible 00:02:45] provocateur.
Person who placed aside an organization to cause trouble, usually maneuver them into a position of leadership, and they provoke actions that can then allow you to crack down on that is many sort of lure or bring the target organization into any legal or open status that it can be more effectively suppressed. They were very good at that. So good that by the early 20th century in the years preceding the Russian Revolution in 1917, they had effectively infiltrated every radical party, Bolsheviks, Menchaviks, SRs, great and small, and placed people in positions of influence and leadership to the point that arguably that is, you can debate this, that I think in the whole, they could largely dictate what those parties did.
Nothing was discussed at any central committee meeting of any revolutionary group that the Okhrana wasn’t immediately aware of, and they often had people in positions to influence what those decisions were. Of course, that raises an interesting question, is that if they were that good and they had infiltrated and effectively controlled most of the opposition, then how did the regime get overthrown by revolutionaries? The answer to that is that it wasn’t overthrown by revolutionaries, it was overthrown by politicians. That would then take us into a detour into Russian history. But I’ll just leave it with this. If you look at 1917 and you look closely, this is one of the things I’d always tell my students is that there are two Russian revolutions in 1917. There’s the first one in March or February, depending on your calendar, that overthrows Nicholas II. Revolutionaries are really not involved with that.
Bolsheviks are nowhere to be seen. Trotsky and Lenin are nowhere to be seen. They have nothing to do with that. That has to do effectively with a political conspiracy within the Russian parliament, the Duma. To unseat and emperor, they thought was bungling the war and was essentially a loser to begin with. It was a coup d’etat, a parliamentary coup d’etat. The temporary or provisional government that that revolution put in power was the one overthrown by Lenin eight months later. That government was essentially one dominated by moderate socialists. It was a government that very quickly sort of turned to the left. The guy we associate with that is Alexander Kerensky. Alexander Kerensky was a Russian socialist, a politician. He was the quasi-dictator of that regime. He’s the person, not the Tsar, who’s overthrown by Lenin. So the revolutionaries then did not prove to be the fatal threat to the Tsarist regime.
It was the Tsarist political system itself that did that. What then transpired was that the Okhrana and its method, and many of its agents then immediately segued over into the new Soviet Security Service. So one of the first things that Lenin did in December of 1917, within a month of seizing power since the hold on power was tenuous at best, was that while you were going to need some kind of organization to infiltrate and suppress those pesky counter-revolutionaries and foreign imperialists and all of the other enemies that we have. So the extraordinary Commission to Combat Counter-revolution and sabotage the Cheka was formed. You put a veteran Bolshevik, Felix Dzerzhinsky at the head of that someone you could politically rely upon, but Dzerzhinsky built his organization essentially out of the Okhrana. There were all of these informers sitting around with nothing to do, and they were employed in the early twenties. The kind of rank-and-file of the Cheka might’ve been 80 to 90% former Imperial officials. Those were gradually decreased over time.
So why would they do that? Well, they were professionals. They also needed to eat and things were somewhat precarious. So if your job is to be an agent provocateur, if your job is to infiltrate targeted organizations and lead them astray, you do that for whoever pays you. That’s part of the professionalism, which goes in. Under the Soviets, the Soviet Intelligence Services are also very good at that. They’re very good at infiltrating people into opposing organizations. I guess the one example I would give to demonstrate that at the Cambridge five, the British traders from the Soviet standpoint, heroes who were recruited, most notably Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald McClain, Anthony Blunt, and there may have been, well more than five, but that wasn’t bad out of just Cambridge.
Then placing those people in high positions, the ultimate goal, of course, is to get your people into positions of leadership and influence in the opposing intelligence service. So they did. Of course, it all fell apart and they ended up in …Philby ended up living the last part of his life in exile in Moscow, but they got their money’s worth out of him. You can also find this in KGB infiltration, the CIA, the FBI, the Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanson cases. Of course, we were infiltrating. By we, I mean the Americans in the West managed to infiltrate our moles as well. But if it came down, someone could dispute this. But I would think if you were going to come down to kind of like who had the most moles Super Bowl, probably the Soviets would come somewhat ahead of that.
Once you have the state, then you induce socialism from above. Whereas the majority of the people, the so-called Mensheviks, the minority-ites who are oddly-enough, the vast majority of the party, that’s one of the first things. How do you lose that argument? How does the minority get to grab the name? But Lenin did that. So what Lenin wanted was a conspiratorial party of committed revolutionaries that would plot and scheme and undermine and eventually seize control of the state and induce socialism from above. There were other Russian Marxists who thought that that sounded vaguely totalitarian and not really democratic and not even terribly socialist. They opposed that ineffectively from the beginning, outmaneuvered every step of the way. The Mensheviks are a case study in failure of a political organization. That too will be heresy to some people.
But look, they lost. So what Lenin managed to do starting around 1903, continuing under this, is he managed to divide, to take what had been a single Marxist party and split it into angry contending factions because he and his Bolsheviks run one side advocating a much more militant conspiratorial policy. The discombobulated Mensheviks were over on the other. And in between were a lot of people who really didn’t know where they stood on this. Sometimes they kind of agreed he seems to be making sense today. No, no, I don’t think he’s making sense in that day. But he managed to completely disunify this organization. Now, who could possibly have seen benefit in that the Okhrana. Now, whether or not they put him up to it, whether or not in some way they helped move him into a position of leadership or encouraged it or encouraged it through people around him, whether he was a witting or unwitting agent of the Tsar’s Secret Police, he certainly accomplished exactly what it was that they had wanted.
I find that suspicious. It’s one of those things that it’s so convenient in a way, is that I’m not necessarily sure that was an accident. There’s also this whole question to me as to what was going on within the Okhrana itself. Now, this is one of these questions we may come to later about how intelligence agencies interact or serve the governments to which they are theoretically subordinate. They do tend to acquire a great deal of influence and power. After all, their main job is to collect information. That information could be about all kinds of things, including people within the government structure itself.
They also know how to leverage that information in a way to get people to do what you want them to do. So an argument can be made, again, an argument, not a fact, merely an opinion, which is mostly what history is made out of opinions is that at some point between about 1900 and 1917, people within the Okhrana were playing their own game. That game took them in a direction, which meant that continued loyalty to the emperor, specifically to Nicholas II, was no longer part of that.
To me, in a way, it seems almost during the events of 1917, that one, you had an organization that was very effective that suddenly just becomes ineffective. It doesn’t really disappear. These things don’t go away because it will reappear as the O’Chacka basically fairly quickly. But it raises the question to me as to what degree there were people within the organization who allowed events to take the course they wished.
But the Minister of the Interior had no real effective control over this at all. To the point was that at one point early on, they actually organized the assassination of their own boss. They have their agents among the revolutionaries kill the Minister of the Interior. He’ll just replaced by another one. He’s an Imperial bureaucrat. He’s not really part of their organization. It’s like a director of an intelligence agency appointed by the president. Maybe he’s part of the organization, maybe he isn’t. Maybe he is not one of us. So you’ve got different levels, different compartments within it. Who’s actually running the show, if anyone is, I don’t know. That’s never supposed to be apparent.
That’s kind of an interesting method of intimidation in that regard. But the suspicion is nonetheless there, Dzerzhinsk was the grand inquisitor. He was seemingly firmly in control of the organization. Of course, maybe he wasn’t. My guess would be is that if Dzerzhinsky’s death was not natural causes, that he was probably eliminated by someone within his own organization. Then you look at the people who take over his immediate successor is Vyacheslav Menzhinsky who’s really not really a secret policeman, more a kind of intellectual dilettante. But if you look behind him, is the fellow Genrikh Yagoda, and Yagoda will really manage things from behind the scenes until Menzhinsky dies in 1930.
Then Yagoda will hold on until he’s the victim of the purges, I think in 37 or 38. Yagoda is ambitious, murderous, and if I was going to point the finger to anybody who possibly had Dzerzhinsky whacked, it would be him. For the purposes simply of advancement. The person to look out at any kind of corporate organization is your immediate subordinate, the person who could move into your job, because more than likely, that’s exactly what they’re planning to do.
But ideology was just so convenient, and those people would just work for you so well. You could get them to do anything, betray their grandmother. They would go ahead and do that for the greater good. So ideology can be a motivation, and that can be someone who is a devoted Marxist-Leninist. It can also be someone who’s a disgruntled communist because there’s no anti-communist like an ex-communist.
Those who lose the faith can become very, very useful. For instance, if you look in the case of American intelligence, the people who essentially temporarily destroyed much of the KGB organization in the US post-World War II, where people like Whitaker Chambers, Louis Budenz, Elizabeth Bentley, all of those people had been Communist party members. They had all been part of the Red Faithful. They all, for one reason or another, became disillusioned and turned rat or patriot, whichever case you may want to put in that regard.
If you don’t work for us, we will spread the rumor through our agents already in your organization that you are. Then what will your comrades do? How long are you going to live? So you see, you have no choice. You’re ours, and you’re going to cooperate with us. The way that that effectiveness will be ensured is that you have multiple agents within the same organization who don’t know who each other are. That’s very important. They’ll all be filing reports. So let’s say you have three agents inside the central committee of the SR party, and there’s a committee meeting, and you’re going to look at the reports they file. They all better agree with each other. If one person doesn’t report what the other two do, then perhaps they’re not entirely doing their job and they can be liquidated at any time. All you do is drop the dime on them.
This was done periodically. In fact, in some cases, you would betray your own agents just to completely discombobulate to the organization. This happened in one particular case around 1908, the fellow who was the head of the chief revolutionary terrorist organization, which wasn’t Bolshevik, but the so-called socialist revolutionaries. Actually the biggest revolutionary party, the SRs, who aren’t even actually Marxists more anarchists, but they went all in for the propaganda, the deed. They really like blowing people up and carried out quite a campaign of terrorism. The fellow who was the head of that terrorist organization was a fellow by name of Yevno Azef. Yevno Azef was, guess what? An Okhrana agent. Everything he did, every assassination that he planned, he did in consultation with his control. So he’d kind of run out his string. There was increasing suspicion of him.
He was also asking for a lot more money. So the Okhrana itself arranged to have him ride it out. What did that do? Well, what do you do in your party when you find out the chief of your terrorist brigade was a secret police agent. It’s consternation and mistrust. Nobody in the party would ever trust, and you couldn’t tell who you were sitting around. I know that a fellow I wrote a biography on Boris Sevenkov who was a Russian revolutionary and the second in command within the terrorist organization. By the way, the guy that wanted Azef’s job so bad he could taste it, well, on the one level, he expressed absolute horror that his boss was a police agent, and well, he should, because Sevenkov was a police agent too. See, they already had the number two waiting in the wings to take over, but he was legitimately shocked. He didn’t really suspect that.
So it’s a way of manipulating this. Then finally, we come to the E. That I think is the most important, ego. Sometimes people spy or betray because of the egotistical satisfaction that they receive, the sheer kind of Machiavellian joy in deceit. An example of that would be Kim Philby, one of the Cambridge five. Now, Philby was a communist, and he would argue that he always saw himself as serving the communist cause. But he also made this statement, I think it’s in the preface to his autobiography, and he says, one never looks twice at the offer of service in elite force. He’s talking about his recruitment by the NKVD in the 1930s, and he was absolutely chuffed by that.
The mere fact that they would want him, what he considered to be a first-rate organization would want him, satisfied his ego. If I was to take a guess as to whether it was ideological motivation, whether it was the romance of communism or whether it was the appeal of ego that was the most important in his career of treason, I’d go with ego. I think that figures into a lot. Someone doesn’t get the promotions that they wanted. Again, if you look at something like Aldrich Ames career in particular, you’ve got these … his career in the CIA was hit or miss.
He didn’t get the postings or promotions that he wanted his evaluation. He never felt that he got credit for doing that. That’s the type of thing that tends to stick in someone’s craw and can lead for egotistical reasons an added incentive to betray.
They can’t run around in the country carrying guns to use on people. They can’t arrest you. They can’t interrogate you, they can’t jail you. They have no police or judicial powers. Now, that means they have to get that from someone else. That doesn’t mean that other agencies can’t be brought in or local police officials, corn or whatever you need you can eventually acquire. But they can’t do that directly. So you’ve got this division between foreign intelligence and domestic counterintelligence often split between hostile organizations. The relationship between the FBI and the CIA, I think it’s fair to say, is not chummy, never has been. There’s always been a certain amount of rivalry and contention between the two. It’s not to say that something like that didn’t exist between the domestic counterintelligence and foreign intelligence components of the KGB, but there would be less of that to a degree, because there was a single organization.
They’re all answerable to the same people. So that gives you a certain greater amount, I think, of leeway and power because you’re controlling both of those ends. I remember somebody telling me once that, and he was a retired KGB officer. There you go, retired. One of the things that he found amusing was that in his role, one of the things that he could be is that he could be anywhere at any time in any dress, which meant that he could be in or out of uniform and any place at any time. He was authorized to do that.
One of the things it certainly teaches you never trust foreigners. Every foreign government anywhere, any country on your border is a real or potential enemy. They will all, at some point, if given the chance, invade you. Therefore, they must always be treated with great suspicion. It goes back to something that I think the British observed was that countries don’t have friends, they have interests, and those interests can change over time.
And killing also is generally frowned upon. Put people in prison for that, they’re otherwise executed. But in certain circumstances, killing is one of those things that you need to be able to do. So what he felt he was being told in that case is that once you enter this realm, the same sort of moral rules that apply in general British society do not apply. And if you’re squeamish about it, you won’t fit in. You have to be able to do those things.
So subsequently, the person which that personality inhabited was captured and interrogated, tortured, had their fingernails torn out, they would have no memory of it. They couldn’t give any kind of secret away because it was embedded in some part of their brain where there was a completely different person. You can just imagine the possibilities that you can dream up. And again, it’s not, I think, the question is to whether that is possible or whether it was done, although I suspect that both of those are true, but that you would try to do it. Then imagine the mischief that comes out of that. And one of the big complaints from a legal standpoint about MKUltra and the rest is that you were having medical experiments essentially being carried out on people without their knowledge and against their will, which is a no-no.
So in Epstein’s case, he is a procurer of young girls to wealthy men largely. And many of those events were recorded. Now, even if it wasn’t his intention to use them for blackmail, think of what someone else could do it because people know about this. So you could raise a question Epstein is just kind of a greedy pervert, but through his greedy perversion, he’s now collecting information that could be useful. Who could that be useful to? Who would like dirt on Prince Andrew? Think of all the people who were there and there were important people who went to Lolita Island. So if it isn’t Epstein directly, he might have been being, I’m not trying to let him off the hook because they have anything for him, he was either running his own blackmail business or someone was using him as a front for that. I think we’re kidding ourselves if we’re trying to pretend that’s not what was going on.
The question comes down with the rituals as how seriously do you take them? How important is this to the people who carry them out? And the interesting answer to that is that for some people it’s just boring. There are probably people standing around the owl who think this is ridiculous and can’t wait for it to get over with. There are the people that are kind of excited about it, get caught up into it, but other people can take it very seriously. It’s all the matter of the intention that you have about what the ritual means. And I don’t mean to suggest by that that there’s anything necessarily sinister about what’s going on, but it is clearly a ritual carried out for some kind of group reinforcing purpose. And you’re absolutely right. You don’t have to do it that way. I’ve gone to summer camps and we never carried out mock sacrifices in front of an owl. We did all those other things. We didn’t even have any robes either. So it goes beyond merely a rich guy summer camp, although that’s an aspect of it.
But it also I think often obscures, focusing on Bohemian Grove at the getaway of the club, ignores that the club is around all the time. That’s what’s at the center of this, it is the club and its members. So despite all the talk about no weaving spiders coming around here, one of the other features of the summer meeting are things called lakeside talks. And this, often people are invited to go there. And one of the people who was invited, I think around 1968, was Richard Nixon who was making his political comeback. And he was invited to give a talk where very important people are listening. And Nixon in his memoirs, realized what was going on. He was being auditioned as to whether or not he was going to be [inaudible 00:57:19], he recognized that that was really the beginning of his second presidential campaign. He was being vetted.
So one of the main theories, call it a conspiracy theory or not, about the Bohemian Club and the gatherings, is that people of wealth and influence gather together and whether or not it’s part of the agenda or not, inevitably you’re going to talk about things of interest. But to me, the mere fact that you invite people in, political leaders, to give lakeside talks means that there are weaving spiders which are going on and it is a perfect private venue to vet people for political office.
So you’re going to start a foundation and you’re going to start backing all the things that you like. I think there’s an element of ego that comes in with it as well. And again, it may not be so much what the rich person with a huge amount of money at their disposal and a lot of fuzzy ideas about what to do with it can be influenced by others. It’s always that question as to who is actually manipulating these events? What’s going on in that regard? In some way, they can be a very useful sucker. Find somebody with a lot of money and get them to finance the things that you want them to do.
The Bohemian Club is I don’t think in and of itself inherently evil or sinister, but it means that there are lots of different people in it who have different agendas. It goes back to what I said about how somebody feels about the cremation of care ritual. This is either just a waste of time, it’s just some sort of silly thing that we’re doing or it’s something of great importance. Perhaps even mystical or religious importance. Because that’s ostensibly what it’s pretending to be. There’s always this question as to what degree you begin to play and the play becomes serious. That tends to happen a lot.
Now, we all know magic, it’s a guy standing on stage performing a trick. But the interesting thing about a stage magician is that a stage magician is we know when we’re watching it that it’s a trick, yet we can’t really figure out, if he does it well, how that trick is being accomplished because it seems to defy physical laws. And that’s fascinating about it. So even though it’s a trick, if you can’t figure it out, it has this kind of power of fascination. But it’s mimicking something. Stage magic is mimicking real magic. So what’s real magic. Well, let’s go back to Aleister Crowley because he always has to come. I knew he was going to come up at some point in this, earlier than not, because he always does.
So it’s this effort to make things occur in a particular way, maybe just to sort of nudge reality in one little way or another. And that’s where things like rituals come in. Rituals are a way of focusing will and intention. We’re all there. We’re all thinking about the same thing. And you have to imagine just how the pervasiveness of what could be called that kind of magical thinking every day is everywhere. So let me give you an example. You ever attended a high school football pep rally? Think of what’s going on there. Okay, your team is going to battle the other team. You’ve now assembled everyone in the gymnasium. You’ve got people who are dancing around in animal totem costumes. And what are you chanting? Everyone is supposed to chant that the other team dies, that you’ll be horribly defeated and that our team will be victorious.
That is a magic ritual. The idea is it becomes into this idea that’s very popular today about visualizing things, visualizing, manifesting. I love this term. You need to manifest your success. Well, that’s just magic. That is trying to cause change in conformity with will. So these things can happen without you being even consciously aware of what’s going on. And you don’t need to be because if you’re all a part of a mob, which is there in the gymnasium and you get into this and you get worked up and a cultist would argue what you’re doing is you’re creating a huge amount of energy. All of these people are putting energy into something and that energy goes somewhere. And maybe you can. Maybe, just maybe, you actually can slightly increase the chances of your team’s victory. Of course, your opponents are having their own ritual at the same time. So whoever has the bigger mojo will apparently win on the team.
And then, of course, working for free upon different cult-owned business enterprises, of which there were several. And there was a person I knew who became a devoted follower of this, and all I could think of at one point was ask them, “What the hell is the matter with you? I mean, have you lost your mind? What is it that this person can possibly be providing that you essentially are going to become a slave to them?” Which is what they were doing. And I actually give that credit in a way of sparking my whole interest in things like secret societies. And here, again, as a disclaimer, I am not now, nor have I ever been the member of any fraternal organization, secret society, or cult that I know of. And that’s what interests me about them, because I’m just always trying to figure out why people do these things. Like I said, why the robes and the owl? Why?
So, I have this real thing about vague, mysterious characters who show up and do things, and trying to figure out who these people are. So we’re working up the years prior to the first World War. So, the decade or so prior to World War I, he spends a lot of time in the Ottoman Empire, Turkey. There was none in the Ottoman Empire, which was a fairly tumultuous place, because in 1908 and 1909, there was the Young Turk Revolution. And, you had a military coup, which effectively overthrew the Ottoman Sultan and installed a military junta, which would go on during the first World War to make its greatest achievement in the Armenian Genocide. Eventually, it created a genocidal military regime which would lead the country into a disastrous first world war, which would destroy the Ottoman Empire, out of which modern Turkey emerges. Yada, yada, yada.
But, that wasn’t necessarily the intention. But, von Sebottendorff is a German businessman who’s working in this period. And the whole point here is that the Ottoman Empire in this period is a hotbed of political intrigue and all kinds of interesting things about it. The Young Turk Revolution is essentially a military coup, but it is plotted in Masonic lodges. Okay? I know, technically Masonic lodges are never supposed to be involved in politics, but they are. Or, the lodge meeting breaks up, and then you plot the revolution. So, same group of people, but it’s not technically. But yes. And there’s the Macedonia Resorcia Lodge in Thessaloniki was ground zero for plotting this military coup that was supposed to improve the Empire. Sebottendorff is, in one way or another, mixed up in all of this, or at least he’s an observer. Plus, he’s initiated into the Masonic lodges.
And interestingly enough, the fellow initiates him into one of these eastern lodges is a Jewish merchant by the name of Termoodi, and who’s also a Kabbalist. And, Sebottendorff is very, very interested in the occult. He’s initiated into eastern Masonic lodges and a period when those same lodges are being used as a center for political intrigue. He also apparently is involved in gunrunning, which in revolutionary periods is there’s a lot of money to be made off of that. So he’s connected to various dark businesses in a tumultuous time with connections to politicized freemasonry and the occult. Now, in the course of the first World War, he returns to Germany. He just shows up. And, it would be my operative suspicion or theory that Sebottendorff was working for someone. I don’t think he just pops up in Munich on his own accord. Why does he leave the Ottoman Empire and return to that place? Who’s behind him? Now, maybe no one, but maybe someone, because he does seem to have money at his disposal. And he comes into Munich and he basically takes over this small occult study group.
Now, the interesting thing is that The Thule Society is really just a branch of another existing, what’s called, an Areosophist order, a thing called the German order, or the Germanic order, which is centered in Berlin. But for some reason, he doesn’t want his group to be connected by name with the Germanic order. So, Thule Society, Thule in this case, is a reference to supposedly a mythical Arctic homeland of the Aryan race. Apparently, they were all snow people who wander out of the snow at some point. It’s a frozen Atlantis. So I mentioned these people, the Areosophists, which, you have to practice saying that. So, what are they? Well, they’re a racist Germanic offshoot of Theosophy. And, I know I’m explaining one thing to explain something, but there’s no other way to do this.
So, Theosophy was 19th century very popular and widely modeled occult belief that was founded by a Russian woman by the name of Helena Blavatsky. She was a medium psychic, supposedly got channelings from the ascended masters. The basic story there, they’re all of the ascended masters, which are mystical beings that may or may not have once been human. They live inside the Himalayas or they float among them on a cloud, and they guide the spiritual evolution of humanity. What Blavatsky did was to take Western esotericism and blend it with Hindu and Buddhist esotericism, which became very, very sexy in the West, still is. Buddhism attracts a lot of people, because, well, it’s Buddhism, it’s different, see? So, the Mahatmas, the ascended masters were sending her messages, despite the fact that she was later proven pretty much to be a fraud and writing the letters herself. Nevertheless, people still went along with this doctrine, and it’s been widely modified and copied since then. So, an idea in Theosophy was that human spiritual evolution was tied to physical evolution.
In the case of Blavatsky, Blavatsky never said that Aryans, white people, anything out this superior. She talked about the different root races, but their version of it’s just gobbledygook that seems to include everyone in. I’d defy you to make much sense out of it. But, in the early 20th century, there were different… One of the things that became fashionable, not terribly popular, these are small movements, was the idea that, well, Germany is a new upcoming country, and part of this I think was really trying to define who the Germans were, because remember, the German Empire, Germany as a political state, doesn’t come until existence until 1871. Prior to that, Germany was a geographic expression, a vaguen, which described a large area in Central Europe where a lot of people who wore leather shorts or something like that and spoke similar German dialects were nominally Germans, but they might be Prussians or Bavarians. They came in all sorts of varieties in religion. There was no German identity.
Something very similar happened in Italy in this same period. I mean, there weren’t Italians, there were Sardinians, and there were Romans, and there were Sicilians. Umbrians spoke, again, dialects of a similar language, but had never lived, not since the Roman Empire under a single state and really didn’t think of themselves as the same. So you have to create this artificial thing. You have to create Germans. “There is now a Germany with an emperor. And so, we’re all going to be Germans.” Well, exactly what is that? Much of it is an artificial creation. You have to decide upon some standard dialect. Okay, we’ll decide what that is. Often dialect that only a few people actually speak, and then they will be drilled into children’s heads through state schooling programs. So I think this is the milieu that it comes out of. People were trying to figure out what on earth Germans actually were. And, the need for some common identity. And, that leads to everything like Wagnerian Opera. Richard Wagner wanted to create a German mythical music. So he went back and strip mined old German myths and cobbled them together into a lot of people standing on stage singing. And, that was his purpose. He was a nationalist. He was in many ways a racialist nationalist. And this was his idea of trying to create out of bits and pieces of the past, a newfangled form of German identity.
So, on the more mystical end of this, you had the ideas that, well, Germany must have been created for some special purpose, because the Germans must be very special people and we must have some particular destiny. And then, out of this, the direction this is heading, well, we’re all part of some master race with some ties to some great civilization in the past, call it Thule, call it whatever you want to be. They basically just invent things and try to attach those to the past. And so, Areosophy was the Areonized version of Theosophy. And what this did was to take the idea that spiritual and physical evolution had led to the most advanced form of human beings, which were the Aryans, and the most advanced group of them were, of course, the Germans. And, this attracted appeal.
Keep in mind, again, this was not a mass movement. This was very much a fringe movement. Most people weren’t aware of it and weren’t particularly interested in it, but it had an appeal for those who already had a esoteric bent in some form or another. And, this is where things like the Germanin order or the German order and their other groups, it was only one of many, grew out of. And, what it was that the Thule Society as a branch, The Thule Gesellschaft was supposed to do, was to study this. It was an esoteric study group. And so, people would get together and they’d talk about things, probably make more stuff up and all work around this idea of German Aryans as the most advanced human beings, and all the wonderful things that the future would hold.
And the fact that this was in the midst of a war in which Germany was, again, fighting, as they saw it, for its existence, heightened those tensions as well. So, my suspicion, again, is that Sebottendorff, in terms of who was behind him, that he was essentially called back to Germany to work either for the Prussian political police or for some aspect of German intelligence or security to try to mobilize occultism or esotericism for the war effort, because again, this is 1918, the war, it’s gone on way too long. Within a few months, Germany will collapse, and it will collapse simply from the psychological exhaustion of the population.
So, that was why Marxism, particularly in the form of Bolsheism, was seen as unpatriotic. And of course, was opposed to the war as a whole, the idea that parroting Lenin was that the war was an imperialist war. And the only thing that was good that was going to come out of it is that the imperialist war, through all of the crises it was creating, would eventually lead to a class war. And that would be good, because that would reconcile all of these things. But, think of the two very different versions of this, the Bolshevist version, or let’s just call it, the Marxist version of Germany, was going to be a class society in which we’re going to have to have some civil upheaval, which will have Germans fighting Germans.
Whereas, the mystical nationalism, the almost religious nationalism that Sebottendorff from The Thule Society had hitched its wagon to held that Germans are all part of a single racial family, and that’s what must be the most important thing. And that these can be different ways of trying to influence people. It comes down to a matter of political influence. So in a sense, I think that what Sebottendorff and The Thule Society was trying to do, at least within Munich, was to use this idea of mystical nationalism as a potential rallying point for some part of the population to oppose these other forces to keep people fighting. The war is lost though in November, the Kaiser abdicates, and essentially, the socialists do take over Germany. Things come very, very close to following the Russian model. And, you even get the Russian version or take on the Bolsheviks, which are the Spartacists who try and fail to seize power early on. But you do essentially end up with a socialist Germany.
And, that then leaves in the aftermath of the war. The Thule Society is sort of the odd man out, although they’re still very closely connected to the army. And here’s one of the things that I find interesting. When you get into 1919, who is it that’s paying Sebottendorff’s bills? It’s the army. The one thing the German army is absolutely determined to do is to preserve its social position and power. And they’re perfectly willing to dump the Kaiser to do that. This deal, which is made in November of 1918, Kaiser’s abdication, the proclamation of a German Republic, which, you just had this guy declare it. It wasn’t really planned. There’s the Ebert-Groner Pact. Groner is the chief of general staff at this point. Ebert is the chief socialist politician basically, and they make an agreement. And the agreement basically is that the Army will support Ebert’s government if Ebert supports the Army. And particularly that means the continuation of the Officer Corps and the general staff in one form or another. So a deal is made. And that of course, is what will eventually help defeat the Spartacist uprising.
So, Parvis or Alexander Helpant to give his actual name, comes to them and he goes, “Look, there’s a lot of revolutionaries in Russia and there’s a lot of mistrust with the regime. We think that the war will increase the contradictions in Russian society. And, if you give me a lot of marks, I can finance this revolutionary activity. And through subversion, I can take Russia out of the war.” Well, the Germans are facing a two-front war. That sounds great. “We’ll use money in order to…” But notice what they’re doing. The German general staff, a very conservative organization, not a bunch of revolutionaries, are going to finance revolution in an opposing country. They’re going to finance revolutionary subversion to take Russia out of the war, which basically works. So that gives you another idea as to what the German military is willing to do. They’re not revolutionaries, but they’ll pay revolutionaries to subvert another regime. Now, you’ve got the problem, is that, the revolutionary regime that your money helped bring to power is now threatening to extend into your country.
So, the whole question for the Army and for others in Germany in 1919 is how to keep Germany from going Bolshevik from, in a sense, being hoist by your own petard. So The Thule Society, I don’t think is a huge part of this program, but it is a part of it, and it’s all an effort to try to keep control. And that’s why the army is financing them. That’s even why the Army at some point then supplies them with its own propagandists. So, The Thule Society begins to create under Sebottendorff leadership, what he called, the Rings of Thule. And these are satellite organizations that aren’t the society as though, but they’re controlled and inspired by it. And one of those is a thing called the German Workers Party.
And the German Workers Party, again, is local. It’s not large, it’s not terribly influential, but what does it aspire to be? It aspires to be a party that will bring German workers away from the seductive influence of the Bolsheviks and into a more patriotic position. And, the way that I describe this is that it’s not an anti-communist organization, it’s a counter-communist organization. So you don’t create something which completely opposes it, you create something which mimics it, which is ultimately what the German Workers Party will become, is the National Socialist German Workers Party, known as that term, socialist. And that is, in my view, what Nazism is from the beginning. It is a counter-communist movement.
He seems to have had flexible interests in this case. So, once order is restored, so to speak, the army comes in and decide that, “Well, one of the things we need? We need to have people who can lecture soldiers on patriotic topics.” And so, there is a particular captain by the name of Karl Mayer who spots Hitler. He later describes him as a stray dog looking for a master. Hitler has a knack for public speaking. Other soldiers will listen to him. Some people can do that, some people can’t. Mayer decides that he’s a good candidate for further training. And so, yes, they bring him in. They turn him into a, what’s called, a [foreign language 01:43:56], a liaison man. He’s an army propagandist.
And then, you’ve got this little outfit called the German Workers Party. And essentially what happens is that Hitler is sent in to take over leadership of that, which is what happens. He shows up, he attends a meeting, there are 50 people there. By the way, the topic of the first meeting he’s at, is how and why capitalism should be abolished, which is not what you might, well, expect. Because remember, the German Workers Party is trying to cast itself as a counter Bolshevism. So it’s not saying that capitalism is great, which is important. No, capitalism is evil. We agree upon that. We just agree it has to be destroyed from a nationalist point of view, as opposed from some strange internationalist point of view. So Hitler is essentially, as I see it, sent in by the Army as their trained man to assume leadership within this small party and to use it-
Okay. What do you want to call yourself a Jew-hater or an anti-Semite? See, anti-Semitism, it’s got that ism part of the end of it, which means it’s a system of belief. Anything that has an ism must somehow be scientific and important. It’s all part of the 19th century obsession with trying to bring science into something, one or the other. So we’re going to get rid of Jew-hate, and we’re going to turn it into anti-Semitism. And we’re only going to be talking about Jews, but we’ll never actually say that. And somehow the invention of a Jew-hater to disguise the fact that he’s a Jew-hater, even though he’s partly Jewish by inventing the term anti-Semitism worked because everybody has bought it and repeated it ever since. So I don’t know, maybe just because anti-Jewism would just be, is it too direct in some way? Do we have difficulty confronting actually what it is that we’re talking about?
That changes when you get to the 19th century and with what’s called Jewish emancipation. And that means that between about 1800 and 1850, most European countries drop the various legal or social restrictions against Jews. They are assimilated into the general society. So ideally, you stop being a German Jew and you become a Jewish German. Those are two very different important concepts. And what that does, of course, is that it opens up the professions, business world, elsewhere. So Jews move who had been largely within those realms to begin with, they already had a good deal of experience in banking business, and they move into those areas and professions and become quite visible.
And that’s what then creates anti-Semitism because in some way that is seen as part of the changes that have taken place. And there are a lot of things going on here. Part of it has to do with the kind of wrenching social and economic changes that took place with industrialization. So one of the things to keep in mind is that in the process of industrialization, just like today, whole classes of people were made extinct economically, craftsmen, for instance. So when factories came along and began to produce things with machines, all the craftspeople who had made those things previously are now unemployed or go to work as wage labor in factories. So there are winners and losers in industrialization. And what people saw in Germany and elsewhere is that among this new sort of rising capitalist elite among these new professions, among the bureaucrats that are coming out of these burgeoning states, they were visibly a fair number of Jews.
So in some way, the rise of Jews in the minds of many people were connected to all of the other bad things that were going on. The world was changing in a way we don’t like. And seemingly the Jews are prospering while I am not, and that was true in Germany and elsewhere, Jews because highly visible in the professions, they became very visible in banking. They became visible in legal profession. They became visible in the medical profession. And those are people that a lot of people would come in contact with, bankers, lawyers, and doctors. They were not the majority there, but vastly overrepresented in terms of the general population and especially within the cities. So in that sense, the roots of anti-Semitism to me is that Jews in Germany and Elsewhere and not just in Germany by any means, France, Britain, everywhere else became identified with the bad changes that were taking place.
But you also found that Jews were not only prominent among capitalists, they were also prominent in the socialist movement as well. So one of the things you could look around if we returned to Germany in 1919 in the aftermath of World War I, and you look around in Bavaria or elsewhere, you tend to find that there are a lot of Jews in visible positions on the German left. Rosa Luxemburg is but one example of that, Eugen Levine, some of them came in from Russia. When the Soviets send a representative to Germany in this period, it’s Karl Radek, a Jew. So it wasn’t difficult to exploit that, to argue that just as the ranks of capitalism was full of Jews, the ranks of Bolshevism or of the revolutionary left, were full of Jews. Because you could easily go around and distinguish a great many of them.
Again, they don’t have to be the majority, they just have to be numerous, prominent, and visible, which they were. So this provided you a, in the case of the propaganda of the German army, the type of stuff that Hitler was spewed out. They could put all the anti-capitalist rhetoric in there, wanted to. The army was never going to overthrow capitalism, and the capitalists knew they weren’t going to do it. So go ahead, talk shit about us. We don’t really care. That’s not going to, because we know that the army would prevent that from happening. The way to then undermine the real enemy, it was a scene. The revolutionary left was to point out the Jewish influence there. I mean, look at Russia. Well, Lenin is up, Trotsky, there he is. Look, there’s a Jew. There’s one. Radek is a Jew. It wasn’t hard to find them in that regard.
And none of that is really true. I mean, the first part about it is that at the time this supposedly took place, Rachkovsky wasn’t working for the Okhrana, he had been fired and he wasn’t in Paris. And the whole situation, which is described couldn’t have taken place because the people who did it weren’t there. It’s a story, but it provides a kind of explanation for it. So the protocols emerge, so you always have to go back. This is one of the things that I have found always useful in research, is go back to the beginning, find the first place this is mentioned, or the first version, or the first iteration. Where does it start?
So you go back to Saint Petersburg, Russia around 1903. There is a small right wing anti-Semitic newspaper published there called Znamya, banner. And it publishes in a kind of serial form a work doesn’t credit with any original author. And this is the first version of the Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion. But what it’s actually describing is a Judeo-Masonic plot to rule the world. Those two terms are always combined together. And I think in the earlier version, there’s far more mentions of Freemasons than there are Jews.
And the publisher of Znamya is closely connected to a thing called the Union of Russian People. The Union Russian Men, which was ostensibly existed to defend the empire against subversion and particularly against what it thought was Jewish subversion when they also argued that the prominence of Jews in revolutionary movements somehow proved that this was in some way a Jewish revolution. But again, this is not a mainstream newspaper. It’s not appealing to a mainstream population. Very few people saw it, but this is where it appears. Now keep in mind that’s two or three years before it’s usually said to have been written, or the other version is that there’s this crazy priest by the name of Sergei Nilus, and he wrote it or actually appended it as an appendix to his work in 1905. Now it was around before that. So Nilus didn’t create it. It wasn’t drafted in Paris in 1904 and 1905. It was serialized in an obscure right wing Russian newspaper, 1903.
But the other thing he does, which was fascinating to me, is that he takes this whole sort of initial text and in bold type he indicates the paragraphs, but more often sentences or phrases that appear to be identical from the Joly work and they’re just scattered throughout it. There’s no particular rhyme or reason to it. You don’t plagiarize that way. I mean, who does that? It’s sentence here, sentence there, which has led to a peculiar theory of mine, which of course I will have to expound upon, which is that I think that the original author of the protocols was the same Maurice Joly. I think what someone stumbled across was a work which he wrote and never published, and which he just drew. It’s exactly what someone would do working from your own kind of material, because I’ve written things and then taken what I’ve written and then sort of repackaged that into something else.
So the Taxil hoax was the work of this guy. His real name was I think Jogand-Pages. He was kind of a French journalist. I don’t know. He started out writing porn. So I mean, he wrote things like Sex Lives of the Popes and the Erotic Bible and various things of that kind. He was a Catholic, broke with the Catholic Church, wrote bad stuff about the Popes, and apparently became a Freemason for a while, and then supposedly recanted his evil ways, went back to the church. And then under the name Leo Taxil began writing these whole series of articles, basically arguing that there was a Masonic-Satanic conspiracy run, by the way, by an American, Albert Pike. And this also included child sacrifice. It’s got Pizzagate and it is as well by a high priestess Diana Vaughan.
And so there’s like child sacrifice, weird Robie, Bohemian Grove stuff, and the Freemasons or devil worshipers going back to the Knights Templars. And so there’s a thing called the Devil in the 19th Century and the Secrets of Freemasonry, and this became a bestseller in France. So France is just obsessed with all these kinds of conspiracies. So evil, Satanic, Freemasons, evil, Jewish financiers, Dreyfus. This, this is the brew where all of this come. So want to figure out how Freemasons and Jews get connected together? France is the place where this happens.
Now, Taxil or Jogand-Pages eventually pulls another interesting thing in this around 1897, critics argue that he’s making this stuff up and demand that he present Diana Vaughan, suppose Satanic, high priestess toddler killer. And he says, oh, we’re going to have a press conference. She’ll appear and say all of this stuff as she returns to the church and possibly becomes a nun. And so people show up, high figures in the Catholic Church shows up, and he does. No Diana Vaughan and Jogand-Pages goes, it’s all a hoax. I made it up. You’re all a bunch of idiots for believing it. Okay. You, you members of the church, especially just what gullible morons you are, and that’s it. He confesses.
To this day however, you will find people who will insist that it’s actually true because they desperately want it to be true. But this is, I think the milieu that, I like that word apparently that this comes out of, and this is this whole kind of unhealthy mix. So France to me is the only place that in the decade preceding it, that something like this would be concocted. So it was either created by some sort of unknown person there. But I still think that even though he dies in like 1879, that in Maurice Joly’s troubled career, he went from being an opponent of French Emperor, Napoleon III, which is what the whole dialogues was written against.
And then he was for a time, a close political ally of a French politician by the name of Adolphe Cremieux. So Adolphe Cremieux, well, what’s he got going for him? Well, he was kind of a radical politician. He was an opponent of Napoleon III. He was a Freemason. Oh, and he was Jewish. In fact, at one point, I think he was actually the head, both of the Scottish right in France, and an important figure in the Alliance Israélite, the Jewish organization in France. So he was publicly very prominently Jewish and Masonic. So someone else who would’ve linked them together.
Joly, as he did with virtually everyone, this was a guy whose life largely consisted of dual threats and fistfights. So he gets angry at Cremieux, and it’s exactly the type of thing that he might write to vent his spleen about it. But he died, probably a suicide, that’s kind of difficult to tell in obscurity. His son seems to have inherited most of his literary works, and his son became a journalist, worked for newspapers in France in the 1890s, but was also associated with some people on the fringes of the Okhrana or the Russian press in France. So one of the little things that had happened by this time is that France and Russia had become allies, even though their political systems were completely incompatible.
And so the Russians were using money to subsidize French newspapers that were championing the alliance between the two. Russian meddling. Okay. Now they’re just paying to have the right kind of newspapers come out. So there’s this whole connection between the kind of Russian journalistic world and the French journalistic world and all of these scandals which are going on, and Joly’s son and then 10 years down the road, this thing pops up in a newspaper in Saint Petersburg. That’s where I think the origins lay.
I mean, you could leave Jews out of it entirely and just turn it into a Masonic plot to rule the world, but let’s just throw them in as well since the two things are already being combined elsewhere. It doesn’t become a big deal until really after the first World War because the initial versions of it are all in Russian. And let’s face it, well, that’s widely read in Russia. It’s not much read anywhere else. It’s a different alphabet. Nobody can even see what it means. So it has no particular influence outside of Russia. But then you get to 1919 and you get all these different versions of it. So suddenly you get two English versions in the US, another English version in Britain, a German edition, a French edition, a Dutch edition. Everybody is coming up with these things. So it’s not until in the immediate aftermath of the first World War that this metastasizes and it begins to show up in all of these different foreign editions.
And I think that it just has to do with the changes that have taken place during the war. One of the things that people began looking for was that why was there a war? And we’ve just had this whole disastrous war and the world has been turned upside down. So there has to be some kind of explanation for that. I don’t know. And one of the things this offered to, see there’s this evil plan, there’s this evil plan that has been put into motion, and this could possibly explain what’s taking place. The reason with the protocols were, I think widely bought then and why they still are in many ways is the same reason that the Taxil hoax I was talking about was. Because it told a story that people wanted to believe.
So in France in the 1890s, there was widespread suspicion of Freemasons. It was seen as a somewhat sinister, secretive organization, certainly secretive. And there was also the same sort of generalized prejudices about Jews, clannish distinct, too much influence, all of the things that went on. So it was sort of easy to combined those two things together. And even though Taxil admits it was a hoax, there were those who argued that this is just too, it’s too accurate. It describes things to completely to be a hoax. And that you get the same arguments, in fact, I’ve heard the same arguments with the protocol. I don’t even buy this as an example of plagiarism, because you can’t actually prove what’s being plagiarized in any sense. To me, the protocols are a prime example of what I call a turd on a plate. These things crop up. I have to explain that now.
During the Roman period, you not only have the Judean Rebellion in 70 A.D., but you have a couple of other uprisings in North Africa, and they were very bloody affairs. And in some cases, Jews began massacring other people around them. They start killing the Greeks and the Greeks start killing them. So there was a fair amount of, from that periodonic, a certain amount of bad blood of mutual contempt between Greeks or between Hellenes, between the people who became Hellenized as the Romans would be and the Jews. And the Romans also seems to have developed much of that idea. They considered Judea as being a horrible place to have to govern, inhabited by a stubborn, obnoxious people, not well-liked.
So that’s really where you see the earliest version of that. And the reasons for it would be complicated, but you could say is that going back to Manetho and to the Roman period, Jews, Judeans frequently experienced difficulties, conflicts with other people living around them. And part of that probably had to do with the diaspora, which was the movement. Well, you get the idea. The Romans came in and kicked everybody out, which they didn’t. Jews had been leaving Judea since it was a poor limited area. And moving into areas like North Africa, Egypt, Cyrenaica, all the way into Southern France. They moved widely around the Roman Empire. So that sense of both distinctness and hostility existed since ancient times.
So it wasn’t just, the attitude of the church towards Jews was mixed by… Well, one of the ideas, of course, is that at the end of time, just before the second coming, one of the signs, how are we going to know that Jesus is going to return and the world is going to end? Well, the Jews will all convert. There will be a mass conversion. They’ll sort of see the light. Now, so there have to be Jews around to do that, or we won’t. It’s like a canary in a coal mine. You have to have them there to tip it off. So that was one of the arguments as to why, within the church as to why Jews would not be forcibly converted beyond the fact that it’s just kind of bad policy to forcibly convert people because you don’t know whether it’s sincere, but they need to be preserved as a kind of artifact, which will then redeem itself at the end of time. It’s not something which is encouraged. It predates Christianity, and then Christianity, of course, in its own way, just sort of…
One of the essential points that seems to me in antisemitism, anti-Jew-ism is that all the Jews are in this together. Isn’t that one of the things? Okay. They’re always talking about as if they’re collective. Jews this, Jews that as if it’s a single, undifferentiated mass of people who all move and speak in the same way. From my personal experience, not being Jewish, it’s incredibly diverse in many ways, really. One of the things that anti-Semitism proposes is a continuity or a singularity of Jewish identity that never existed.
Maybe if you can just zoom out, what do you, from this particular discussion, learn about human nature that we pick the other in this way? We divide each other up in groups and then construct stories. And we like constructing those stories, and they become really viral and sexy to us. And then we use those stories to channel our hatred towards the other.
I don’t know. What does that tell you about human nature? Well, okay, in 70 odd years, what have I learned about my fellow creatures? One, I don’t actually understand them any better than I ever did. In fact, less so. I would say this, when I was 17, I thought I had the world much more figured out than I do now. Completely deluded. But it seemed to make much more sense, and I could categorize things. Basic take upon human beings, most people, most of the time are polite, cooperative and kind until they’re not. And the exact tipping point and moment in which they go from one to the other is unpredictable.
So the first thing that could tell you that something odd is going on is he gets out of prison in LA County and he’s on parole. Parolees are supposed to have a job, not supposed to leave the jurisdiction of their parole. He heads straight for the Bay Area, violates parole right off the bat. Two weeks later, he drifts into the parole office in the Bay Area, whereupon he should have been arrested and sent back to Terminal Island, but instead they just assign him a [inaudible 02:30:57]. I don’t know, maybe things were easier then in some way. So he gets assigned a parole officer, Michael Smith. Michael Smith is initially handling a number of parolees. But after a while, once he takes on Manson, he only has one parolee he’s supervising, Charlie Manson, which is odd. Then you also find out that Michael Smith, in addition to being a parole officer, is a graduate student at the University of California studying group dynamics, especially the influence of drugs on gangs in groups. He’s also connected to the Hayett Ashbury Free Clinic, which is a place where the influence of… Because Hayett Ashbury had lots of drugs and lots of groups. So Charlie Manson never gets a regular job, hangs around with young girls, ex-cons, engages in criminal activity. He is repeatedly arrested, but nothing ever sticks for the next couple of years.
Who gets that type of thing? Who gets a get out of jail free card? Informants. So here is what? Again, this is speculation, but Manson at some point after he got out of prison is getting this treatment because he is recruited as a confidential informant.
So that’s part of it. He’s an informant in the movement of drugs basically within the film and music industries. And he’s given pretty much a free rein at that point. What then happens in August of 1969 is that there are these murders. First, Sharon Tate and her friends in Cielo Drive. I think everybody has probably pretty much heard that story before. And of course, the question is why Cielo Drive? Why Sharon, Tate, Frykowski and the rest of them? Manson was familiar with the place. He had been there before. Members of the family had been there before, so he knew where it was. It wasn’t an easy place to find. The original house is no longer there, but the same property and a house is built there. And if you didn’t know where it was… It’s not some place, “Let’s just go for a drive in the Hollywood Hills and murder people in a house.” Well, that isn’t the one that you would come across. There are lots of connections there. Wojciech Frykowski was one of the people killed at the Cielo Drive house, was involved in drug dealing. That’s a possible connection between the two, probably a fairly likely one. Probably not unfortunate Sharon Tate at all. She was probably in the wrong place at the wrong time. Her husband might’ve been, you never know.
And then the next night after the slaughter there… Which by the way, Manson is not at. So this is one of the interesting things about it is, Charles Manson doesn’t kill any of these people. His crime is supposedly ordering the killings to be done. He supposedly thought that the killings at the Tate house were sloppy, and he was going to give everybody a crash course in how you apparently commit seemingly random murders. So the next night he takes a group of people over to the LaBianca’s house in a different section of LA. You’ve got Leno, Rosemary LaBianca, the guy is a grocer. His wife runs a dress shop, upper middle class, and they’re bound and gagged and hacked to death. As at the Tate residence, various things like piggy are written, various messages in blood, things that are supposed to look like cat’s paws. Because one of the groups trying to be framed for this was the idea was the Black Panthers.
So the general story that comes out in the subsequent trial is that this was all a part of something called Helter Skelter, which supposedly was an idea that… That sounds like a Beatles song. That’s where he got it from. He thought the Beatles were talking to him through their music and that there was going to be an apocalyptic race war, and this was all part of a plan to set this off. So this is why the Black Panthers were trying to be implicated in this. Although, how it was supposed to do that is never really explained.
Here is what I think was really happening, what really happened and how I think it fits together. Before Sharon Tate and her friends or the LaBiancas were killed, there was a murder by members of the family of some of the same people involved in the later killings of a musician, drug manufacturer by the name of Gary Hinman. So Manson, again was involved in the drug trade, and Hinman made them. He was a cook, basically, and he brewed them up in his basement, sold the drugs to Manson, who sold them to biker gangs like the Straight Satans, which was one of the groups that he used, and they distributed them elsewhere. Well, one day, the Straight Satans show up and complain that the last batch of meth or whatever it was that they got from Manson, had made some of their brothers very, very ill, and they were quite unhappy about that, and they wanted their $2,000 back. Manson had gotten those drugs from Gary Hinman. So he is unhappy, and he sends Bobby Beausoleil, and a couple of the girls over to Hinman’s place to get the money from him. As the story is later relayed, I think by Susan Atkins, Hinman denied that there was anything wrong with his drugs and refused to pay up, which led to a interrogation torture session in which he was killed.
And the idea was here, what are we going to do with that? Well, one of the other groups that Hinman had sold drugs to were, guess what? People associated with the Black Panthers. So we’ll leave these things up and they will do it. So it’s Bobby Beausoleil who then takes Hinman’s car and decides to drive it up the coast, by the way, with a bloody knife with Hinman’s blood and hair on it, and blood on the seats in the car, and then he pulls it off the road and decides to sleep it off, and he gets busted. So, find Hinman’s body, find Beausoleil in Hinman’s car with a bloody knife with him. He gets arrested. So Beausoleil was very popular with some of the girls. There’s consternation in the family that Bobby has been arrested. So how can we possibly get Bobby out of jail? Copycat killings. So if we go kill more people and we make it look the same, then see, Bobby couldn’t possibly have done it. Now, see, he just borrowed the car. Okay, he stole the car, but the knife was already in… He didn’t have anything to do with this. So that to me makes the most sense out of what followed.
So what he supposedly did to inspire all of these killings, and I think that’s probably beginning with the Hinman killing, he told him to go over there and get the money one way or the other. I don’t know whether he told him, “If you don’t get the money, kill him.” But, Hinman’s dead. And then he might also have seen the value in terms of having copycat killings as a way of throwing off any other blame. The other story you get is that one of the people who had lived at the Cielo house where Sharon Tate was before, was a record producer by the name of Terry Melcher. Melcher supposedly, as the general story goes, had welched on a deal with Manson in terms of a record contract. He screwed over Manson in some sort of a record deal, and Manson wanted to get revenge and sent them to kill everybody in the house, which again, doesn’t make much sense. One, Manson knew that Melcher wasn’t living there anymore. He probably knew where Melcher was living. If he wanted to get Melcher, he could have found him. It wasn’t that difficult to do.
And so it’s not revenge on Terry Melcher that drew him there. He was familiar with the house. So if the idea was to simply commit random killings that would muddy the whole waters with the Hinman killing, then you might pick some place you knew of. He knew the place was [inaudible 02:44:23]. There would be someone there, and you really didn’t care, in the same way that the LaBiancas seemed to have been. Manson was familiar with that because it supposedly had been the scene of creepy crawling. This is little interesting things that the family would be taught to do. Creepy crawling is when you sneak into somebody’s house at night while they’re there asleep, or when they’re not there, and you move things around. So when they get up in the morning or they come home, they’ll suddenly notice that someone has been in their house, which will freak them out, which is the whole point of that.
So Reeve Whitson, later in his career at least, is CIA. What was he in 1969? What is he doing in this? The other thing about it is he appears to have been the person who called… There’s a little question of when the bodies at Cielo Drive are discovered. So the general story is that Sharon Tate’s housekeeper shows up around 8:30 in the morning, finds the bloody scene and goes screaming next door. But there was another fellow who knew… I think the owner of the house is a photographer. Last name may be Hatami. He gets a call earlier in the morning saying that there’d been murders there, and the person he recalls calling him is Reeve Whitson. So someone had been at the house before the bodies were discovered, and they had not called the police. So I don’t know what’s going on there, but it’s a curious situation.
And Manson in a lot of ways, self-immolates himself. I mean, his behavior at the trial is bizarre. It’s threatening, it’s disruptive. He’s got his girls out on the street carving X’s in their forehead, carrying knives. One of the attorneys, initially, his attorney, Ron Hughes, becomes Van Houten’s attorney. And he figures out that the three girls, supposedly on Charlie’s insistence, are going to confess. They’ll confess that it was all their idea and Charlie had nothing to do with it. Hughes doesn’t like this because his defense for her is that she was under his influence and therefore not responsible for her own actions. He was having psychic control, so he refuses to go along with it. There’s a break in the trial. He goes camping up in the mountains with some friends, disappears during a rainstorm, and then some months later, his decomposed remains are found.
Rumors, always the rumors. What would history be without rumors? Members of the family, they were off at Ron Hughes because he messed up Charlie’s idea to get him off and so they killed him. Maybe they did. Maybe he drowned. That’s absolutely impossible to say. You’ve got that story. There’s a guy named Juan Flynn, who was an employee at the Spahn Ranch, didn’t like Manson, held Manson responsible for the murder of his boss. He would testify that Manson told him that he had ordered all the killings, and that Manson also admitted that he had killed 35 people. Maybe he did. On the other hand, Juan Flynn didn’t like him, and other than his word had no real proof of what he was saying.
So please understand me in this case, is that unlike some people who argue that Charles Manson got a raw deal, I don’t think that’s the case. I think that he influenced tremendous influence over the people there through drugs. Sex was another frequent component in it. He had a real whammy over a lot of these people’s minds. I’m not sure how. That still puzzles me. He was a scrawny guy and he wasn’t physically intimidating. I mean, even a lot of women wouldn’t be physically intimidated by him. But he nevertheless had this real psychological power. And if you look around him, the male followers he had were fairly big guys. So he could get people to do what he wanted. And again, to me, the simplest explanation for this is that it began with the Hinman killing, and probably on Manson’s instigation the others were copycat killings to throw off what was going on. If I was a cop, that’s what I would focus on because that seems to make the most sense.
And the first killings are all of couples. It’s very clear that they… I remember in my examination of it, one of the things I was looking at specific, what else is there to say about this zodiac killings? What I was going to look at is that there are all of these accusations that there was an occult aspect to it, that there was some sort of ritualistic aspect. So I looked at different things, locations, victims, phases of the moon. That’s always worth looking at. I didn’t find much correspondence in any of those. In one of the killings, I think the one in Lake Berryessa, he does appear in this kind of weird hooded costume. He’s got his symbol that sort of compass or aiming reticle circle with a cross through it. It can mean a variety of things. He used guns and he used knives, but he certainly had to think for couples. Except in the last of the killings, which is of a cab driver in downtown San Francisco, who he shoots in full view of witnesses, which is completely atypical.
It’s Wheel of Fortune, but with different forms of grisly death on it. And all of the things that he mentioned are shown on the cover of this. So whoever put together that card saw that comic book. Well, that’s kind of an interesting clue. So does that mean he’s a comic book collector? When would he have… I mean, that one and also where he got the idea from, and so he’s incorporating these things from. Then there are of course his codes, which people have, which aren’t all that difficult to decipher probably because they weren’t meant to be. The other thing that you find often with serial or psychopathic killers is they’re toying with the press. I mean, this goes all the way back to Jack the Ripper. They get attention, and then he just disappears.
The symbol of the order was an owl, which interestingly enough is almost identical to the owl which is the emblem of the Bohemian Club.
So Weishaupt himself lives, I think until 1830, dies in Gotha, which was ruled by an Illuminati prince. And so nothing ever happens to these. No Illuminati is ever put to death or arrested in prison for any period of time. What happens is that their plan… Well, what was his plan? His plan was to essentially replace all existing religions and governments in the world with a one world order governed by the Illuminati. So to do this, you had to subvert and destroy all the existing order. And he argued the purpose for this is we wish to make men happy and free, but first we must make them good.
So he talks about these things fairly openly, and this is where you get this idea of some sort of a new world order, which is to be based upon the destruction of the existing order. So there are those who argue that there is a trail of descent that leads from Weishaupt’s Illuminati to the Communist manifesto, and in fact, communism itself, that Marxism was simply a further restating of this idea. And you can draw some sort of, I mean, the idea never entirely goes away. The Bavarian government gets a hold of the order’s, inner texts. So the story is they’re delivered to them. I think that Weishaupt gave them to him. I think he engineered the exposure of his order because it gave him publicity. By being exposed in Bavaria, you gained great renown. And they continued to recruit after this, and the Bavarian government actually bans the Illuminati four different times. Why? Because apparently the first three times didn’t work. So the fourth one does. You can notice that it’s like Papal bans on Freemasonry. They just go on and on and on because this clearly isn’t working.
So the method is very much the same. And also this idea of creating a kind of insular group. The organization is us, and everyone else is outside of that. We are guardians of special knowledge. See, this is the type of thing that would generally happen if you question whatever any kind of intelligence agency did. Well, we know things that you don’t. Why? Because we’re the organization that knows things. We collect information, we know the secrets, we guard the secrets. Therefore, if we tell you, you must believe us.
All right, take your pick. But Retinger is the moving hand behind the whole thing, and I’ll be damned if I can figure out who Retinger is. So the idea is that, well, you get like influential people in media, business, politics, and you bring them together just to talk, to try to find common answers or common questions. It’s all very much sort of Western Anglo-European. It’s all very closely sort of connected to NATO, the whole concept of a kind of Atlanticist world, which is essentially the Anglo-American combine combined with Western Europe. But you got a bunch of these things. I mean, the Council on Foreign Relations is very similar to that and the Bilderbergers, and there’s an overlap with the Bohemian Club. And then you’ve got the Pinay Cercle or Le Cercle, which is more military, but also linked to the so-called secret Gladio. The idea of the Soviets over around Western Europe, there would be a stay behind organization called Gladio. There’d be these freedom fighters.
So the question I have about that is that how many secret organizations do you need? I mean, why all these separate groups which often seem to have the same people into them?
Well, I hate to go back to them again because what you’re bringing up, you go back to the Nazis. They had their whole idea about a new world order, and they only had 12 years to do it. And look what a mess they made. I mean, look at the damage, the physical damage that can be done by an idea inspiring a relatively small group of people controlling a nation based upon some sort of racial or ideological fantasy that has no real basis in reality and yet guides their actions. It’s this differentiation that I always make. And I would try to get across to students between always be clear about what you know and what you believe. You don’t know many things.
You know your name, you know when you were born, you probably know who your father is, but that’s not absolute unless you’ve had a DNA test and only if you trust DNA tests. So you know who your mother is. You believe this man is your father. Why? Because your mother told you he was. So you believe things generally because someone has told you this is to be true, but you don’t really know for sure.
Well, because we know so little, we tend to go by beliefs. So we believe in this. We believe in that. You believe that your cult leader is the answer to everything. And it seems to be very, very easy to get people to believe things. And then what happens is that whether or not those beliefs have any real basis in reality, they begin to influence your actions. So here again, regrettably in some ways to bring it back to the Nazis, what were the Nazis convinced of? They were convinced that Jews were basically evil aliens. That’s what it comes down to. They weren’t really humans. There’s some sort of evil contamination which we must eradicate. And they set out to do that.
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 0:37 – KGB and CIA
- 14:54 – Okhrana, Cheka, NKVD
- 30:26 – CIA spies vs KGB spies
- 37:02 – Assassinations and mind control
- 43:56 – Jeffrey Epstein
- 50:48 – Bohemian Grove
- 1:02:42 – Occultism
- 1:13:53 – Nazi party and Thule society
- 1:54:11 – Protocols of the Elders of Zion
- 2:27:16 – Charles Manson
- 2:54:03 – Zodiac Killer
- 3:04:57 – Illuminati
- 3:12:21 – Secret societies
Introduction
Rick Spence
Most people, most of the time are polite, cooperative, and kind until they’re not.
Most people, most of the time are polite, cooperative, and kind until they’re not.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Rick Spence, a historian specializing in the history of intelligence agencies, espionage, secret societies, conspiracies, the occult and military history. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now dear friends, here’s Rick Spence.
The following is a conversation with Rick Spence, a historian specializing in the history of intelligence agencies, espionage, secret societies, conspiracies, the occult and military history. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now dear friends, here’s Rick Spence.
KGB and CIA
You have written and lectured about serial killers, secret societies, cults and intelligence agencies. So we can basically begin at any of these fascinating topics, but let’s begin with intelligence agencies. Which has been the most powerful intelligence agency in history?
Rick Spence
The most powerful intelligence agency in history. It’s an interesting question. I’d say probably in terms of historical longevity and consistency of performance that the Russian Intelligence Services. Notice I didn’t say the KGB specifically, but the Russian Intelligence Services, going back to the Czarist period are consistently pretty good. Not infallible, none of them are. Of course, there’s a common Western way of looking at anything Russian. Very often, I think it’s still the case Russians are viewed in one or two ways. Either they are Bumbling idiots or they’re diabolically clever, no sort of middle ground. You can find both of those examples in this.
The most powerful intelligence agency in history. It’s an interesting question. I’d say probably in terms of historical longevity and consistency of performance that the Russian Intelligence Services. Notice I didn’t say the KGB specifically, but the Russian Intelligence Services, going back to the Czarist period are consistently pretty good. Not infallible, none of them are. Of course, there’s a common Western way of looking at anything Russian. Very often, I think it’s still the case Russians are viewed in one or two ways. Either they are Bumbling idiots or they’re diabolically clever, no sort of middle ground. You can find both of those examples in this.
So what I mean by that is that if you’re looking at the modern SVR or FSB, which are just two different organizations that used to be part of the one big KGB or the KGB or its predecessors, the Checka, you’re really going back to the late 19th century and the Imperial Russian Intelligence Security Service, generally known as the Okhrana or Okhrana.
It’s really the Department of Police, the special Corps of Gendarmes. Their primary job was protecting the imperial regime and protecting it against imperial or other interior enemies, Revolutionaries for the most part. They got very, very good at that by co-opting people within those movements, infiltrating and recruiting informers, [inaudible 00:02:41] provocateurs. In fact, they excelled at the [inaudible 00:02:45] provocateur.
Person who placed aside an organization to cause trouble, usually maneuver them into a position of leadership, and they provoke actions that can then allow you to crack down on that is many sort of lure or bring the target organization into any legal or open status that it can be more effectively suppressed. They were very good at that. So good that by the early 20th century in the years preceding the Russian Revolution in 1917, they had effectively infiltrated every radical party, Bolsheviks, Menchaviks, SRs, great and small, and placed people in positions of influence and leadership to the point that arguably that is, you can debate this, that I think in the whole, they could largely dictate what those parties did.
Nothing was discussed at any central committee meeting of any revolutionary group that the Okhrana wasn’t immediately aware of, and they often had people in positions to influence what those decisions were. Of course, that raises an interesting question, is that if they were that good and they had infiltrated and effectively controlled most of the opposition, then how did the regime get overthrown by revolutionaries? The answer to that is that it wasn’t overthrown by revolutionaries, it was overthrown by politicians. That would then take us into a detour into Russian history. But I’ll just leave it with this. If you look at 1917 and you look closely, this is one of the things I’d always tell my students is that there are two Russian revolutions in 1917. There’s the first one in March or February, depending on your calendar, that overthrows Nicholas II. Revolutionaries are really not involved with that.
Bolsheviks are nowhere to be seen. Trotsky and Lenin are nowhere to be seen. They have nothing to do with that. That has to do effectively with a political conspiracy within the Russian parliament, the Duma. To unseat and emperor, they thought was bungling the war and was essentially a loser to begin with. It was a coup d’etat, a parliamentary coup d’etat. The temporary or provisional government that that revolution put in power was the one overthrown by Lenin eight months later. That government was essentially one dominated by moderate socialists. It was a government that very quickly sort of turned to the left. The guy we associate with that is Alexander Kerensky. Alexander Kerensky was a Russian socialist, a politician. He was the quasi-dictator of that regime. He’s the person, not the Tsar, who’s overthrown by Lenin. So the revolutionaries then did not prove to be the fatal threat to the Tsarist regime.
It was the Tsarist political system itself that did that. What then transpired was that the Okhrana and its method, and many of its agents then immediately segued over into the new Soviet Security Service. So one of the first things that Lenin did in December of 1917, within a month of seizing power since the hold on power was tenuous at best, was that while you were going to need some kind of organization to infiltrate and suppress those pesky counter-revolutionaries and foreign imperialists and all of the other enemies that we have. So the extraordinary Commission to Combat Counter-revolution and sabotage the Cheka was formed. You put a veteran Bolshevik, Felix Dzerzhinsky at the head of that someone you could politically rely upon, but Dzerzhinsky built his organization essentially out of the Okhrana. There were all of these informers sitting around with nothing to do, and they were employed in the early twenties. The kind of rank-and-file of the Cheka might’ve been 80 to 90% former Imperial officials. Those were gradually decreased over time.
So why would they do that? Well, they were professionals. They also needed to eat and things were somewhat precarious. So if your job is to be an agent provocateur, if your job is to infiltrate targeted organizations and lead them astray, you do that for whoever pays you. That’s part of the professionalism, which goes in. Under the Soviets, the Soviet Intelligence Services are also very good at that. They’re very good at infiltrating people into opposing organizations. I guess the one example I would give to demonstrate that at the Cambridge five, the British traders from the Soviet standpoint, heroes who were recruited, most notably Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, Donald McClain, Anthony Blunt, and there may have been, well more than five, but that wasn’t bad out of just Cambridge.
Then placing those people in high positions, the ultimate goal, of course, is to get your people into positions of leadership and influence in the opposing intelligence service. So they did. Of course, it all fell apart and they ended up in …Philby ended up living the last part of his life in exile in Moscow, but they got their money’s worth out of him. You can also find this in KGB infiltration, the CIA, the FBI, the Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanson cases. Of course, we were infiltrating. By we, I mean the Americans in the West managed to infiltrate our moles as well. But if it came down, someone could dispute this. But I would think if you were going to come down to kind of like who had the most moles Super Bowl, probably the Soviets would come somewhat ahead of that.
Lex Fridman
So the scale of the infiltration, the number of people and the skill of it, is there a case to be made that the Okhrana and the Chaka orchestrated both the components of the Russian Revolution as you described them?
So the scale of the infiltration, the number of people and the skill of it, is there a case to be made that the Okhrana and the Chaka orchestrated both the components of the Russian Revolution as you described them?
Rick Spence
Well, there’s an interesting question for me. There are all kinds of questions about this. One of the questions is whether or not Lenin was an Okhrana agent. Okay, I’ve just said heresy. I’ll do that quite often. I am a heretic and proud of it.
Well, there’s an interesting question for me. There are all kinds of questions about this. One of the questions is whether or not Lenin was an Okhrana agent. Okay, I’ve just said heresy. I’ll do that quite often. I am a heretic and proud of it.
Lex Fridman
Great.
Great.
Rick Spence
Why would you possibly say that Lenin could have been an Okhrana agent? Well, let’s look what he managed to do. So you had, coming into the 20th century, nominally, a single Marxist movement, the Russian social Democratic Labor Party, and Bolsheviks and Mensheviks majority- ites and minority-ites are merely factions of that party. They always agreed that they were all Marxists. We all believe in dialectical materialism and the rise of were all socialists comrade. The difference was the tactical means by which one would attain this. What Lenin wanted was a militant small-scale Vanguard party. Wanted a revolution, wanted to seize power, seize control of the state.
Why would you possibly say that Lenin could have been an Okhrana agent? Well, let’s look what he managed to do. So you had, coming into the 20th century, nominally, a single Marxist movement, the Russian social Democratic Labor Party, and Bolsheviks and Mensheviks majority- ites and minority-ites are merely factions of that party. They always agreed that they were all Marxists. We all believe in dialectical materialism and the rise of were all socialists comrade. The difference was the tactical means by which one would attain this. What Lenin wanted was a militant small-scale Vanguard party. Wanted a revolution, wanted to seize power, seize control of the state.
Once you have the state, then you induce socialism from above. Whereas the majority of the people, the so-called Mensheviks, the minority-ites who are oddly-enough, the vast majority of the party, that’s one of the first things. How do you lose that argument? How does the minority get to grab the name? But Lenin did that. So what Lenin wanted was a conspiratorial party of committed revolutionaries that would plot and scheme and undermine and eventually seize control of the state and induce socialism from above. There were other Russian Marxists who thought that that sounded vaguely totalitarian and not really democratic and not even terribly socialist. They opposed that ineffectively from the beginning, outmaneuvered every step of the way. The Mensheviks are a case study in failure of a political organization. That too will be heresy to some people.
But look, they lost. So what Lenin managed to do starting around 1903, continuing under this, is he managed to divide, to take what had been a single Marxist party and split it into angry contending factions because he and his Bolsheviks run one side advocating a much more militant conspiratorial policy. The discombobulated Mensheviks were over on the other. And in between were a lot of people who really didn’t know where they stood on this. Sometimes they kind of agreed he seems to be making sense today. No, no, I don’t think he’s making sense in that day. But he managed to completely disunify this organization. Now, who could possibly have seen benefit in that the Okhrana. Now, whether or not they put him up to it, whether or not in some way they helped move him into a position of leadership or encouraged it or encouraged it through people around him, whether he was a witting or unwitting agent of the Tsar’s Secret Police, he certainly accomplished exactly what it was that they had wanted.
I find that suspicious. It’s one of those things that it’s so convenient in a way, is that I’m not necessarily sure that was an accident. There’s also this whole question to me as to what was going on within the Okhrana itself. Now, this is one of these questions we may come to later about how intelligence agencies interact or serve the governments to which they are theoretically subordinate. They do tend to acquire a great deal of influence and power. After all, their main job is to collect information. That information could be about all kinds of things, including people within the government structure itself.
They also know how to leverage that information in a way to get people to do what you want them to do. So an argument can be made, again, an argument, not a fact, merely an opinion, which is mostly what history is made out of opinions is that at some point between about 1900 and 1917, people within the Okhrana were playing their own game. That game took them in a direction, which meant that continued loyalty to the emperor, specifically to Nicholas II, was no longer part of that.
To me, in a way, it seems almost during the events of 1917, that one, you had an organization that was very effective that suddenly just becomes ineffective. It doesn’t really disappear. These things don’t go away because it will reappear as the O’Chacka basically fairly quickly. But it raises the question to me as to what degree there were people within the organization who allowed events to take the course they wished.
Okhrana, Cheka, NKVD
Lex Fridman
I always wonder how much deliberate planning there is within an organization like Okhrana or if there’s kind of a distributed intelligence that happens.
I always wonder how much deliberate planning there is within an organization like Okhrana or if there’s kind of a distributed intelligence that happens.
Rick Spence
Well, one of the key elements that any kind of intelligence organization or operation is compartmentalization need to know. So rarely do you have an occasion where everybody in an executive position are all brought into a big corporate meeting and we discuss all of the secret operations that are going on. No, no, you never do that. Only a very limited number of people should know about that. If you have a person who is a case officer, is controlling agency, he’s the only one that should know who those people are, possibly his immediate superiors. But no way do you want that to be common knowledge. So information within the organization itself is compartmentalized. So you don’t need everybody to be in on it. You don’t even need necessarily the people who are nominally at the top. Versus the Okhrana, the real boss of the Okhrana was the Imperial ministry of the Interior, the Minister of the Interior, in fact.
Well, one of the key elements that any kind of intelligence organization or operation is compartmentalization need to know. So rarely do you have an occasion where everybody in an executive position are all brought into a big corporate meeting and we discuss all of the secret operations that are going on. No, no, you never do that. Only a very limited number of people should know about that. If you have a person who is a case officer, is controlling agency, he’s the only one that should know who those people are, possibly his immediate superiors. But no way do you want that to be common knowledge. So information within the organization itself is compartmentalized. So you don’t need everybody to be in on it. You don’t even need necessarily the people who are nominally at the top. Versus the Okhrana, the real boss of the Okhrana was the Imperial ministry of the Interior, the Minister of the Interior, in fact.
But the Minister of the Interior had no real effective control over this at all. To the point was that at one point early on, they actually organized the assassination of their own boss. They have their agents among the revolutionaries kill the Minister of the Interior. He’ll just replaced by another one. He’s an Imperial bureaucrat. He’s not really part of their organization. It’s like a director of an intelligence agency appointed by the president. Maybe he’s part of the organization, maybe he isn’t. Maybe he is not one of us. So you’ve got different levels, different compartments within it. Who’s actually running the show, if anyone is, I don’t know. That’s never supposed to be apparent.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s a fascinating question. You could see this with NKVD. It’s obviously an extremely powerful organization that starts to eat itself, where everybody’s pointing fingers internally also as a way to gain more power. So the question is in organizations like that that are so-called compartmentalized, where’s the power? Where’s the center of power? Because you would think given that much power, some individual or a group of individuals will start accumulating that power. But it seems like that’s not always a trivial thing because if you get too powerful, the snake eats that person.
Well, that’s a fascinating question. You could see this with NKVD. It’s obviously an extremely powerful organization that starts to eat itself, where everybody’s pointing fingers internally also as a way to gain more power. So the question is in organizations like that that are so-called compartmentalized, where’s the power? Where’s the center of power? Because you would think given that much power, some individual or a group of individuals will start accumulating that power. But it seems like that’s not always a trivial thing because if you get too powerful, the snake eats that person.
Rick Spence
Well, if we go back again to the founder of Soviet Secret Police, Felix Dzerzhinsky dies in 1926, keels over after giving a heated speech to a party meeting. Now, the common view, what you usually read, which was key for the time, is that clearly Stalin had him whacked because anytime someone died, it was almost always that. I think a lot of times he did. But in some cases, Stalin’s probably getting blamed for things that he didn’t actually do. Dzerchinsky wasn’t even opposed to Stalin. So it’s not clear why he … but Stalin died. Obviously, he was poisoned. Something happened. It was an unnatural death. Somebody goes in for an operation, it gets a little too much anesthesia. Stalin killed them. Somebody tips over in a canoe in upstate New York, Stalin killed them. There’s actually a case about that. So that itself can be kind of useful, where every time someone dies, they think you killed them.
Well, if we go back again to the founder of Soviet Secret Police, Felix Dzerzhinsky dies in 1926, keels over after giving a heated speech to a party meeting. Now, the common view, what you usually read, which was key for the time, is that clearly Stalin had him whacked because anytime someone died, it was almost always that. I think a lot of times he did. But in some cases, Stalin’s probably getting blamed for things that he didn’t actually do. Dzerchinsky wasn’t even opposed to Stalin. So it’s not clear why he … but Stalin died. Obviously, he was poisoned. Something happened. It was an unnatural death. Somebody goes in for an operation, it gets a little too much anesthesia. Stalin killed them. Somebody tips over in a canoe in upstate New York, Stalin killed them. There’s actually a case about that. So that itself can be kind of useful, where every time someone dies, they think you killed them.
That’s kind of an interesting method of intimidation in that regard. But the suspicion is nonetheless there, Dzerzhinsk was the grand inquisitor. He was seemingly firmly in control of the organization. Of course, maybe he wasn’t. My guess would be is that if Dzerzhinsky’s death was not natural causes, that he was probably eliminated by someone within his own organization. Then you look at the people who take over his immediate successor is Vyacheslav Menzhinsky who’s really not really a secret policeman, more a kind of intellectual dilettante. But if you look behind him, is the fellow Genrikh Yagoda, and Yagoda will really manage things from behind the scenes until Menzhinsky dies in 1930.
Then Yagoda will hold on until he’s the victim of the purges, I think in 37 or 38. Yagoda is ambitious, murderous, and if I was going to point the finger to anybody who possibly had Dzerzhinsky whacked, it would be him. For the purposes simply of advancement. The person to look out at any kind of corporate organization is your immediate subordinate, the person who could move into your job, because more than likely, that’s exactly what they’re planning to do.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, just one step away from the very top, somebody there will probably accumulate the most power. You mentioned that the various Russian intelligence agencies were good at creating agent provocateurs infiltrating the halls of power. What does it take to do that?
Yeah, just one step away from the very top, somebody there will probably accumulate the most power. You mentioned that the various Russian intelligence agencies were good at creating agent provocateurs infiltrating the halls of power. What does it take to do that?
Rick Spence
Well, there’s an interesting little acronym called MICE, M-I-C-E. It’s generally used, and it’s just the way in which you would acquire. How do you get people to work for you? Well, M stands for money. You pay them. People are greedy. They want money. If you look at Aldrich Ames, he had a very, very expensive wife with expensive tastes. So he wanted money. I is for ideology. So during, particularly in the 1920s and the 1930s, the Soviets were very effective in exploiting communists, people who wanted to serve the great cause, even though that’s initially not really what they wanted to do. Because the idea was that if you recruit agents from among, let’s say, American communists, you compromise the party because exactly what your enemies are going to say is that all communists are Soviet spies. They’re all traitors in some way. So you would really want to keep those two things separate.
Well, there’s an interesting little acronym called MICE, M-I-C-E. It’s generally used, and it’s just the way in which you would acquire. How do you get people to work for you? Well, M stands for money. You pay them. People are greedy. They want money. If you look at Aldrich Ames, he had a very, very expensive wife with expensive tastes. So he wanted money. I is for ideology. So during, particularly in the 1920s and the 1930s, the Soviets were very effective in exploiting communists, people who wanted to serve the great cause, even though that’s initially not really what they wanted to do. Because the idea was that if you recruit agents from among, let’s say, American communists, you compromise the party because exactly what your enemies are going to say is that all communists are Soviet spies. They’re all traitors in some way. So you would really want to keep those two things separate.
But ideology was just so convenient, and those people would just work for you so well. You could get them to do anything, betray their grandmother. They would go ahead and do that for the greater good. So ideology can be a motivation, and that can be someone who is a devoted Marxist-Leninist. It can also be someone who’s a disgruntled communist because there’s no anti-communist like an ex-communist.
Those who lose the faith can become very, very useful. For instance, if you look in the case of American intelligence, the people who essentially temporarily destroyed much of the KGB organization in the US post-World War II, where people like Whitaker Chambers, Louis Budenz, Elizabeth Bentley, all of those people had been Communist party members. They had all been part of the Red Faithful. They all, for one reason or another, became disillusioned and turned rat or patriot, whichever case you may want to put in that regard.
Lex Fridman
What does the C in the E stand for?
What does the C in the E stand for?
Rick Spence
The C is for coercion. That’s where you have to persuade someone to work for you. You have to pressure them. So usually you blackmail them. That could be they have a gambling habit. In the old days, it’s very often they were gay. Get them in a decision where they can be compromised and you can get them to do your bidding. Those people usually have a certain amount of control. Here’s an interesting example of how the Okhrana tended to handle this, and I think it’s still largely used. You’d round up a bunch of revolutionaries on some charge or another distributing revolutionary literature, running any illegal printing press. You bring a guy into the room and you say, okay, you’re going to work for us. Of course, we refuse to do so. They go, well, if you refuse, we’ll keep the rest of your comrades in jail for a while, maybe beat them with a rubber truncheon or so, and then we’re just going to let you go. We’re just going to put you back out on the street.
The C is for coercion. That’s where you have to persuade someone to work for you. You have to pressure them. So usually you blackmail them. That could be they have a gambling habit. In the old days, it’s very often they were gay. Get them in a decision where they can be compromised and you can get them to do your bidding. Those people usually have a certain amount of control. Here’s an interesting example of how the Okhrana tended to handle this, and I think it’s still largely used. You’d round up a bunch of revolutionaries on some charge or another distributing revolutionary literature, running any illegal printing press. You bring a guy into the room and you say, okay, you’re going to work for us. Of course, we refuse to do so. They go, well, if you refuse, we’ll keep the rest of your comrades in jail for a while, maybe beat them with a rubber truncheon or so, and then we’re just going to let you go. We’re just going to put you back out on the street.
If you don’t work for us, we will spread the rumor through our agents already in your organization that you are. Then what will your comrades do? How long are you going to live? So you see, you have no choice. You’re ours, and you’re going to cooperate with us. The way that that effectiveness will be ensured is that you have multiple agents within the same organization who don’t know who each other are. That’s very important. They’ll all be filing reports. So let’s say you have three agents inside the central committee of the SR party, and there’s a committee meeting, and you’re going to look at the reports they file. They all better agree with each other. If one person doesn’t report what the other two do, then perhaps they’re not entirely doing their job and they can be liquidated at any time. All you do is drop the dime on them.
This was done periodically. In fact, in some cases, you would betray your own agents just to completely discombobulate to the organization. This happened in one particular case around 1908, the fellow who was the head of the chief revolutionary terrorist organization, which wasn’t Bolshevik, but the so-called socialist revolutionaries. Actually the biggest revolutionary party, the SRs, who aren’t even actually Marxists more anarchists, but they went all in for the propaganda, the deed. They really like blowing people up and carried out quite a campaign of terrorism. The fellow who was the head of that terrorist organization was a fellow by name of Yevno Azef. Yevno Azef was, guess what? An Okhrana agent. Everything he did, every assassination that he planned, he did in consultation with his control. So he’d kind of run out his string. There was increasing suspicion of him.
He was also asking for a lot more money. So the Okhrana itself arranged to have him ride it out. What did that do? Well, what do you do in your party when you find out the chief of your terrorist brigade was a secret police agent. It’s consternation and mistrust. Nobody in the party would ever trust, and you couldn’t tell who you were sitting around. I know that a fellow I wrote a biography on Boris Sevenkov who was a Russian revolutionary and the second in command within the terrorist organization. By the way, the guy that wanted Azef’s job so bad he could taste it, well, on the one level, he expressed absolute horror that his boss was a police agent, and well, he should, because Sevenkov was a police agent too. See, they already had the number two waiting in the wings to take over, but he was legitimately shocked. He didn’t really suspect that.
So it’s a way of manipulating this. Then finally, we come to the E. That I think is the most important, ego. Sometimes people spy or betray because of the egotistical satisfaction that they receive, the sheer kind of Machiavellian joy in deceit. An example of that would be Kim Philby, one of the Cambridge five. Now, Philby was a communist, and he would argue that he always saw himself as serving the communist cause. But he also made this statement, I think it’s in the preface to his autobiography, and he says, one never looks twice at the offer of service in elite force. He’s talking about his recruitment by the NKVD in the 1930s, and he was absolutely chuffed by that.
The mere fact that they would want him, what he considered to be a first-rate organization would want him, satisfied his ego. If I was to take a guess as to whether it was ideological motivation, whether it was the romance of communism or whether it was the appeal of ego that was the most important in his career of treason, I’d go with ego. I think that figures into a lot. Someone doesn’t get the promotions that they wanted. Again, if you look at something like Aldrich Ames career in particular, you’ve got these … his career in the CIA was hit or miss.
He didn’t get the postings or promotions that he wanted his evaluation. He never felt that he got credit for doing that. That’s the type of thing that tends to stick in someone’s craw and can lead for egotistical reasons an added incentive to betray.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that there’s a boost to the ego when you can deceive, sort of not play by the rules of the world and just play with powerful people like they’re your pawns.
Yeah, that there’s a boost to the ego when you can deceive, sort of not play by the rules of the world and just play with powerful people like they’re your pawns.
Rick Spence
You’re the only one that knows this. You’re only the only one that knows that the person who is sitting across from you to which you have sworn your loyalty, you’re simultaneously betraying. What a rush that must be for some people.
You’re the only one that knows this. You’re only the only one that knows that the person who is sitting across from you to which you have sworn your loyalty, you’re simultaneously betraying. What a rush that must be for some people.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how many people are susceptible to this. I would like to believe that the people, a lot of people have the integrity to at least withstand the money and the ideology, the pull of that and the ego.
I wonder how many people are susceptible to this. I would like to believe that the people, a lot of people have the integrity to at least withstand the money and the ideology, the pull of that and the ego.
Rick Spence
It can also be a combination of the two. You can create a recipe of these things, certain amount of money, ego and a little push of coercion that if you don’t, we’ll rat you out. You’ll be exposed.
It can also be a combination of the two. You can create a recipe of these things, certain amount of money, ego and a little push of coercion that if you don’t, we’ll rat you out. You’ll be exposed.
CIA spies vs KGB spies
Lex Fridman
What are some differences to you as we look at the history of the 20th century between the Russian intelligence and the American intelligence in the CIA?
What are some differences to you as we look at the history of the 20th century between the Russian intelligence and the American intelligence in the CIA?
Rick Spence
If you look at both the Okhrana and the KGB, one of the things that you find consistent is that a single organization handled foreign intelligence that is spying upon enemy or hostile governments and also internal security. So that’s all part of it. Whereas if you look at the US models that evolved, you eventually have the FBI under Hoover, who insists that he’s going to be the counterintelligence force. If there are commie spies running around America, it’s the FBI who’s supposed to ferret them out. The CIA is not supposed to be involved in that. The Charter, the basic agreement in 1947, did not give the CIA any … It’s often said they were barred from spying on Americans, which isn’t quite true. You can always find a way to do that. What they don’t have is they don’t have any police or judicial powers.
If you look at both the Okhrana and the KGB, one of the things that you find consistent is that a single organization handled foreign intelligence that is spying upon enemy or hostile governments and also internal security. So that’s all part of it. Whereas if you look at the US models that evolved, you eventually have the FBI under Hoover, who insists that he’s going to be the counterintelligence force. If there are commie spies running around America, it’s the FBI who’s supposed to ferret them out. The CIA is not supposed to be involved in that. The Charter, the basic agreement in 1947, did not give the CIA any … It’s often said they were barred from spying on Americans, which isn’t quite true. You can always find a way to do that. What they don’t have is they don’t have any police or judicial powers.
They can’t run around in the country carrying guns to use on people. They can’t arrest you. They can’t interrogate you, they can’t jail you. They have no police or judicial powers. Now, that means they have to get that from someone else. That doesn’t mean that other agencies can’t be brought in or local police officials, corn or whatever you need you can eventually acquire. But they can’t do that directly. So you’ve got this division between foreign intelligence and domestic counterintelligence often split between hostile organizations. The relationship between the FBI and the CIA, I think it’s fair to say, is not chummy, never has been. There’s always been a certain amount of rivalry and contention between the two. It’s not to say that something like that didn’t exist between the domestic counterintelligence and foreign intelligence components of the KGB, but there would be less of that to a degree, because there was a single organization.
They’re all answerable to the same people. So that gives you a certain greater amount, I think, of leeway and power because you’re controlling both of those ends. I remember somebody telling me once that, and he was a retired KGB officer. There you go, retired. One of the things that he found amusing was that in his role, one of the things that he could be is that he could be anywhere at any time in any dress, which meant that he could be in or out of uniform and any place at any time. He was authorized to do that.
Lex Fridman
So more freedom, more power.
So more freedom, more power.
Rick Spence
I think one of the things that you would often view is that, well, the Russians are simply naturally meaner. There’s less respect for human rights. There’s a greater tendency to abuse power that one might have. Frankly, they’re all pretty good at that. It is fair to say that there’s probably some degree of cultural differences that are not necessarily for institutional reasons, but cultural reasons. There could well be things that Americans might balk at doing more than you would find on the Russian or Soviet side of the equations. The other aspect of that is that Russian history is long and contentious and bloody.
I think one of the things that you would often view is that, well, the Russians are simply naturally meaner. There’s less respect for human rights. There’s a greater tendency to abuse power that one might have. Frankly, they’re all pretty good at that. It is fair to say that there’s probably some degree of cultural differences that are not necessarily for institutional reasons, but cultural reasons. There could well be things that Americans might balk at doing more than you would find on the Russian or Soviet side of the equations. The other aspect of that is that Russian history is long and contentious and bloody.
One of the things it certainly teaches you never trust foreigners. Every foreign government anywhere, any country on your border is a real or potential enemy. They will all, at some point, if given the chance, invade you. Therefore, they must always be treated with great suspicion. It goes back to something that I think the British observed was that countries don’t have friends, they have interests, and those interests can change over time.
Lex Fridman
Well, the CIA is probably equally suspicious of all other nations.
Well, the CIA is probably equally suspicious of all other nations.
Rick Spence
That’s your job. You’re supposed to be suspicious. Your job is not to be trusting. Yeah, the basic job of an intelligence-
That’s your job. You’re supposed to be suspicious. Your job is not to be trusting. Yeah, the basic job of an intelligence-
Rick Spence
… your job is not to be trusting. Yeah. The basic job of an intelligence agency is to safeguard your secrets and steal the other guys’ and then hide those away.
… your job is not to be trusting. Yeah. The basic job of an intelligence agency is to safeguard your secrets and steal the other guys’ and then hide those away.
Lex Fridman
Are there laws, either intelligence agencies that they’re not willing to break? Is it basically lawless operation to where you can break any law as long as it accomplishes the task?
Are there laws, either intelligence agencies that they’re not willing to break? Is it basically lawless operation to where you can break any law as long as it accomplishes the task?
Rick Spence
Well, I think John le Carre, give his pen name, was talking about his early recruitment into British intelligence. And one of the things he remembered being told up front was, “If you do this, you have to be willing to lie and you have to be willing to kill.” Now, those are things that in ordinary human interactions are bad things. Generally, we don’t like it when people lie to us. We expect that people will act honestly towards us, whether that’s being a businessman you’re involved with, your employers. We’re often disappointed in that because people do lie all the time for a variety of reasons, but honesty is generally considered to be. But in a realm where deception is a rule, dishonesty is a virtue. To be good at that, to be able to lie convincingly is good. It’s one of the things you need to do.
Well, I think John le Carre, give his pen name, was talking about his early recruitment into British intelligence. And one of the things he remembered being told up front was, “If you do this, you have to be willing to lie and you have to be willing to kill.” Now, those are things that in ordinary human interactions are bad things. Generally, we don’t like it when people lie to us. We expect that people will act honestly towards us, whether that’s being a businessman you’re involved with, your employers. We’re often disappointed in that because people do lie all the time for a variety of reasons, but honesty is generally considered to be. But in a realm where deception is a rule, dishonesty is a virtue. To be good at that, to be able to lie convincingly is good. It’s one of the things you need to do.
And killing also is generally frowned upon. Put people in prison for that, they’re otherwise executed. But in certain circumstances, killing is one of those things that you need to be able to do. So what he felt he was being told in that case is that once you enter this realm, the same sort of moral rules that apply in general British society do not apply. And if you’re squeamish about it, you won’t fit in. You have to be able to do those things.
Assassinations and mind control
Lex Fridman
I wonder how often those intelligence agencies in the 20th century, and of course the natural question extending it to the 21st century, how often they go to the assassination, how often they go to the kill part of that versus just the espionage.
I wonder how often those intelligence agencies in the 20th century, and of course the natural question extending it to the 21st century, how often they go to the assassination, how often they go to the kill part of that versus just the espionage.
Rick Spence
Let’s take an example from American intelligence, from the CIA 1950s, 1960s into the 1970s, MKUltra. That is a secret program which was involved with what is generally categorized as mind control, which really means messing with people’s heads. And what was the goal of that? Well, there seemed to have been lots of goals. But there was an FBI memo that I recently acquired quite legally, by the way, it’s declassified, but it’s from 1949. So this is only two years after the CIA came into existence. And it’s an FBI memo because the FBI, of course, very curious what the CIA is up to and the FBI are not part of this meeting, but they have someone, they’re sort of spying on what’s going on. So there was a meeting which was held in a private apartment in New York. So it’s not held in any kind of, it’s essentially never really happened because it’s in somebody’s house. And there are a couple of guys there from the CIA. One of them is Cleve Backster. Cleve Backster is the great godfather of the lie detector. Pretty much everything that we know or think we know about lie detectors today, you owe to Cleve Backster. He’s also the same guy that thought that plants could feel, which somehow was a derivative of his work on lie detectors. So these guys are there and they’re giving a talk to some military and other personnel. And there’s certain parts of the document which are of course redacted, but you could figure out what it is that they’re talking about. And they’re talking about hypnotic suggestion and all the wonderful things that you can potentially do with hypnotic suggestion. And two of the things they note is that one of the things we could potentially do is erase memories from people’s minds and implant false memories. That would be really keen to do that, just imagine how that would be done. So here to me is the interesting point. They’re talking about this in 1949. MKUltra does not come along until really 1953. Although there are all sorts of Artichoke and others, everything is sort of leading up to that. It’s simply an elaboration of programs that were already there. I don’t think that it ultimately matters whether you can implant memories or erase memories. To me, the important part is they thought they could and they were going to try to do it. And that eventually is what you find out in the efforts made during the 1950s and ’60s through MKUltra, MKSearch, MKNaomi and all the others that came out. That’s one of the things they’re working for. And among the few MKUltra era documents that survived, there’s that whole question is that could you get someone to put a gun to someone’s head and pull the trigger and then not remember it later. Yeah, you could, interestingly enough.
Let’s take an example from American intelligence, from the CIA 1950s, 1960s into the 1970s, MKUltra. That is a secret program which was involved with what is generally categorized as mind control, which really means messing with people’s heads. And what was the goal of that? Well, there seemed to have been lots of goals. But there was an FBI memo that I recently acquired quite legally, by the way, it’s declassified, but it’s from 1949. So this is only two years after the CIA came into existence. And it’s an FBI memo because the FBI, of course, very curious what the CIA is up to and the FBI are not part of this meeting, but they have someone, they’re sort of spying on what’s going on. So there was a meeting which was held in a private apartment in New York. So it’s not held in any kind of, it’s essentially never really happened because it’s in somebody’s house. And there are a couple of guys there from the CIA. One of them is Cleve Backster. Cleve Backster is the great godfather of the lie detector. Pretty much everything that we know or think we know about lie detectors today, you owe to Cleve Backster. He’s also the same guy that thought that plants could feel, which somehow was a derivative of his work on lie detectors. So these guys are there and they’re giving a talk to some military and other personnel. And there’s certain parts of the document which are of course redacted, but you could figure out what it is that they’re talking about. And they’re talking about hypnotic suggestion and all the wonderful things that you can potentially do with hypnotic suggestion. And two of the things they note is that one of the things we could potentially do is erase memories from people’s minds and implant false memories. That would be really keen to do that, just imagine how that would be done. So here to me is the interesting point. They’re talking about this in 1949. MKUltra does not come along until really 1953. Although there are all sorts of Artichoke and others, everything is sort of leading up to that. It’s simply an elaboration of programs that were already there. I don’t think that it ultimately matters whether you can implant memories or erase memories. To me, the important part is they thought they could and they were going to try to do it. And that eventually is what you find out in the efforts made during the 1950s and ’60s through MKUltra, MKSearch, MKNaomi and all the others that came out. That’s one of the things they’re working for. And among the few MKUltra era documents that survived, there’s that whole question is that could you get someone to put a gun to someone’s head and pull the trigger and then not remember it later. Yeah, you could, interestingly enough.
Lex Fridman
So non-direct violence, controlling people’s minds, controlling people’s minds at scale and experimenting with different kinds of ways of doing that.
So non-direct violence, controlling people’s minds, controlling people’s minds at scale and experimenting with different kinds of ways of doing that.
Rick Spence
One person put it that the basic argument there or the basic thing you’re after was to understand the architecture of the human mind, how it worked, how it put together, and then how you could take those pieces apart and assemble them in different ways. So this is where hypnosis comes in, which was then, still is, fairly spooky thing. Nobody’s ever explained to me exactly what it is. The idea was that could, you think the whole possibilities in this case, could you create an alternate personality and use that alternate personality in an agent role, but then be able to turn it on and off.
One person put it that the basic argument there or the basic thing you’re after was to understand the architecture of the human mind, how it worked, how it put together, and then how you could take those pieces apart and assemble them in different ways. So this is where hypnosis comes in, which was then, still is, fairly spooky thing. Nobody’s ever explained to me exactly what it is. The idea was that could, you think the whole possibilities in this case, could you create an alternate personality and use that alternate personality in an agent role, but then be able to turn it on and off.
So subsequently, the person which that personality inhabited was captured and interrogated, tortured, had their fingernails torn out, they would have no memory of it. They couldn’t give any kind of secret away because it was embedded in some part of their brain where there was a completely different person. You can just imagine the possibilities that you can dream up. And again, it’s not, I think, the question is to whether that is possible or whether it was done, although I suspect that both of those are true, but that you would try to do it. Then imagine the mischief that comes out of that. And one of the big complaints from a legal standpoint about MKUltra and the rest is that you were having medical experiments essentially being carried out on people without their knowledge and against their will, which is a no-no.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. The fact that you’re willing to do medical experiments says something about what you’re willing to do. And I’m sure that same spirit, innovative spirit, persists to this day. And maybe less so, I hope less so, in the United States, but probably in other intelligence agencies in the world.
Yeah. The fact that you’re willing to do medical experiments says something about what you’re willing to do. And I’m sure that same spirit, innovative spirit, persists to this day. And maybe less so, I hope less so, in the United States, but probably in other intelligence agencies in the world.
Rick Spence
Well, one thing that was learned, and the reason why most MKUltra and similar records were destroyed on order in the early ’70s, around the time the CIA became under a certain amount of scrutiny. The mid ’70s were not a good time for the agency because you had the church committee breathing down their neck, you had all of these… People were asking lots of questions. So you need to dump this stuff because there’s all kinds of, because you are committing crimes against American citizens, so let’s eradicate it. And the important lesson to be learned is that never do these type of thing again where at least in any way in which the agency’s direct fingerprints are placed on it. You can pay people. You can subsidize research. You can set up venture capital firms. You got plenty of money and you can funnel that money into the hands of people who will carry out this research privately. So if something goes wrong, you have perfect deniability.
Well, one thing that was learned, and the reason why most MKUltra and similar records were destroyed on order in the early ’70s, around the time the CIA became under a certain amount of scrutiny. The mid ’70s were not a good time for the agency because you had the church committee breathing down their neck, you had all of these… People were asking lots of questions. So you need to dump this stuff because there’s all kinds of, because you are committing crimes against American citizens, so let’s eradicate it. And the important lesson to be learned is that never do these type of thing again where at least in any way in which the agency’s direct fingerprints are placed on it. You can pay people. You can subsidize research. You can set up venture capital firms. You got plenty of money and you can funnel that money into the hands of people who will carry out this research privately. So if something goes wrong, you have perfect deniability.
Jeffrey Epstein
Lex Fridman
On the topic of MICE, on the topic of money, ideology, coercion and ego, let me ask you about a conspiracy theory. So there is a conspiracy theory that the CIA is behind Jeffrey Epstein. At a high level, if you can just talk about that, is that something that’s at all even possible? That you have, basically this will be for coercion, you get a bunch of powerful people to be sexually mischievous and then you collect evidence on them so that you can then have leverage on them.
On the topic of MICE, on the topic of money, ideology, coercion and ego, let me ask you about a conspiracy theory. So there is a conspiracy theory that the CIA is behind Jeffrey Epstein. At a high level, if you can just talk about that, is that something that’s at all even possible? That you have, basically this will be for coercion, you get a bunch of powerful people to be sexually mischievous and then you collect evidence on them so that you can then have leverage on them.
Rick Spence
Well, let’s look at what Epstein was doing. He was a businessman who then also developed a very lucrative sideline in being a high-level procurer basically in supplying young girls. And he also filmed much of that activity. I think his partner in this, Ghislaine, and I’m hope I’m pronouncing her name correctly.
Well, let’s look at what Epstein was doing. He was a businessman who then also developed a very lucrative sideline in being a high-level procurer basically in supplying young girls. And he also filmed much of that activity. I think his partner in this, Ghislaine, and I’m hope I’m pronouncing her name correctly.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s Ghislaine.
I think it’s Ghislaine.
Rick Spence
Ghislaine?
Ghislaine?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Rick Spence
Well, I’ve heard it both ways Ghislaine or Ghislaine, whichever it may be, I think her argument at one point was that, “Well, we did this to protect ourselves.” But this type of thing has been done before, there’s nothing new about this. Getting influential people in compromising situations and filming them. I could give you another historical example of that. In late 1920, actually early-1930s, just pre-Nazi Berlin, there was a very prominent sort of would-be psychic and occultist by the name of Erik Jan Hanussen. He had a private yacht, I think it was called the Seven Sins. And he hosted parties. He also had a whole club called the Palace of the Occult, which hosted parties where things went on. And there were cameras everywhere. He filmed important people, guys like the brownshirt chief of Berlin in various states of undress and sexual congress. And he did that for the purposes of blackmail.
Well, I’ve heard it both ways Ghislaine or Ghislaine, whichever it may be, I think her argument at one point was that, “Well, we did this to protect ourselves.” But this type of thing has been done before, there’s nothing new about this. Getting influential people in compromising situations and filming them. I could give you another historical example of that. In late 1920, actually early-1930s, just pre-Nazi Berlin, there was a very prominent sort of would-be psychic and occultist by the name of Erik Jan Hanussen. He had a private yacht, I think it was called the Seven Sins. And he hosted parties. He also had a whole club called the Palace of the Occult, which hosted parties where things went on. And there were cameras everywhere. He filmed important people, guys like the brownshirt chief of Berlin in various states of undress and sexual congress. And he did that for the purposes of blackmail.
So in Epstein’s case, he is a procurer of young girls to wealthy men largely. And many of those events were recorded. Now, even if it wasn’t his intention to use them for blackmail, think of what someone else could do it because people know about this. So you could raise a question Epstein is just kind of a greedy pervert, but through his greedy perversion, he’s now collecting information that could be useful. Who could that be useful to? Who would like dirt on Prince Andrew? Think of all the people who were there and there were important people who went to Lolita Island. So if it isn’t Epstein directly, he might have been being, I’m not trying to let him off the hook because they have anything for him, he was either running his own blackmail business or someone was using him as a front for that. I think we’re kidding ourselves if we’re trying to pretend that’s not what was going on.
Lex Fridman
So you think, EU and American intelligence agencies would be willing to swoop in and take advantage of a situation like that?
So you think, EU and American intelligence agencies would be willing to swoop in and take advantage of a situation like that?
Rick Spence
Well, you know-
Well, you know-
Lex Fridman
Just in the case.
Just in the case.
Rick Spence
American politicians could ultimately end up in a position to oversee things like intelligence budgets. One of them might even become director. You’re never know. He can never tell what some crazy president might do. It could be very, one of the guys who understood was J. Edgar Hoover, J. Edgar Hoover spent a long time collecting dossiers on politicians. How do you think he’d remain director of the FBI as long as he did? Because he systematically collected dirt on people. So there is a history of this type of thing. And again, you could argue that’s partly for his protection, to keep his job, to protect the sanctity and security of the Bureau. You can find a million different ways to justify that.
American politicians could ultimately end up in a position to oversee things like intelligence budgets. One of them might even become director. You’re never know. He can never tell what some crazy president might do. It could be very, one of the guys who understood was J. Edgar Hoover, J. Edgar Hoover spent a long time collecting dossiers on politicians. How do you think he’d remain director of the FBI as long as he did? Because he systematically collected dirt on people. So there is a history of this type of thing. And again, you could argue that’s partly for his protection, to keep his job, to protect the sanctity and security of the Bureau. You can find a million different ways to justify that.
Lex Fridman
That’s really dark.
That’s really dark.
Rick Spence
Well, there is that side to human nature, let’s put it that way.
Well, there is that side to human nature, let’s put it that way.
Lex Fridman
Whether it’s the CIA or the Okhrana, maybe that’s what the President of the United States sees when they show up to office is all this stuff they have on him or her and say that there’s a internal mechanism of power that you don’t want to mess with and so you will listen, whether that internal mechanism of power is the military industrial complex or whatever, the bureaucracy of government.
Whether it’s the CIA or the Okhrana, maybe that’s what the President of the United States sees when they show up to office is all this stuff they have on him or her and say that there’s a internal mechanism of power that you don’t want to mess with and so you will listen, whether that internal mechanism of power is the military industrial complex or whatever, the bureaucracy of government.
Rick Spence
Contacts with the deep state.
Contacts with the deep state.
Lex Fridman
The deep state.
The deep state.
Rick Spence
Entrenched, bureaucratic. Well, it’s been said and I think it’s generally true, that bureaucratic creatures are like any other creatures. It basically exists to perpetuate itself and to grow.
Entrenched, bureaucratic. Well, it’s been said and I think it’s generally true, that bureaucratic creatures are like any other creatures. It basically exists to perpetuate itself and to grow.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Rick Spence
Nobody wants to go out of business. And of course, you get all of these things like Pizzagate and accusations of one form or another. But here’s an interesting thing to consider. Okay. And I want to argue that I’m not saying that Pizzagate in any way was real or QAnon, anything, but where do they get these ideas from? So let’s ask ourselves, do pedophiles exist? Yeah. Do organized pedophile organizations exist? Yeah, they share information, pictures, they’re out there on the dark web, they cooperate. So does child trafficking exist? Yeah, it does. So in other words, whether or not specific conspiracy theories about this or that group of organized pedophile cultists is real, all the ingredients for that to be real are there. Pedophiles exist, organized pedophilia exists, child and human trafficking exists. At some point, at some time, someone will put all of those together. In fact, certainly, they already have.
Nobody wants to go out of business. And of course, you get all of these things like Pizzagate and accusations of one form or another. But here’s an interesting thing to consider. Okay. And I want to argue that I’m not saying that Pizzagate in any way was real or QAnon, anything, but where do they get these ideas from? So let’s ask ourselves, do pedophiles exist? Yeah. Do organized pedophile organizations exist? Yeah, they share information, pictures, they’re out there on the dark web, they cooperate. So does child trafficking exist? Yeah, it does. So in other words, whether or not specific conspiracy theories about this or that group of organized pedophile cultists is real, all the ingredients for that to be real are there. Pedophiles exist, organized pedophilia exists, child and human trafficking exists. At some point, at some time, someone will put all of those together. In fact, certainly, they already have.
Lex Fridman
We’ll jump around a little bit.
We’ll jump around a little bit.
Bohemian Grove
Rick Spence
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But your work is so fascinating and it covers so many topics. So if we jump into the present with the Bohemian Grove and the Bilderberg group.
But your work is so fascinating and it covers so many topics. So if we jump into the present with the Bohemian Grove and the Bilderberg group.
Rick Spence
Bilderbergers.
Bilderbergers.
Lex Fridman
So the elites, as I think you’ve referred to them. So these gathering of the elites, can you just talk about them? What is this?
So the elites, as I think you’ve referred to them. So these gathering of the elites, can you just talk about them? What is this?
Rick Spence
Well, first thing I have to point out is that Bohemian Grove is a place, not an organization, it’s where the Bohemian Club meets. It’s that 2,700 acre, old-growth redwoods near north of San Francisco. The Bohemian Club began, I think it went back in the 1870s. Its initial members were mostly journalists. In fact, supposedly the name itself comes from, it was a term for an itinerant journalist who moved from paper to paper was called a bohemian. And although I think there may be other reasons why that particular term was chosen as well. But I think the original five members, there were three journalists, there was a merchant and there was a vintner, guy owned a vineyards, California. How surprising? None of them terribly wealthy, but they formed an exclusive men’s club, was and still is. And nothing terribly unusual about that at the time. But it became fashionable. And as it became fashionable, more wealthy people wanted to become part of it. And the thing about getting rich guys to join your club is what do rich guys have? Money. And of course, it’s one of those rich guys that bought Bohemian Grove where now you build your old boys summer camp, which is what it is. They got cabins with goofy names. They go there, they perform skits, they dress up in costumes.
Well, first thing I have to point out is that Bohemian Grove is a place, not an organization, it’s where the Bohemian Club meets. It’s that 2,700 acre, old-growth redwoods near north of San Francisco. The Bohemian Club began, I think it went back in the 1870s. Its initial members were mostly journalists. In fact, supposedly the name itself comes from, it was a term for an itinerant journalist who moved from paper to paper was called a bohemian. And although I think there may be other reasons why that particular term was chosen as well. But I think the original five members, there were three journalists, there was a merchant and there was a vintner, guy owned a vineyards, California. How surprising? None of them terribly wealthy, but they formed an exclusive men’s club, was and still is. And nothing terribly unusual about that at the time. But it became fashionable. And as it became fashionable, more wealthy people wanted to become part of it. And the thing about getting rich guys to join your club is what do rich guys have? Money. And of course, it’s one of those rich guys that bought Bohemian Grove where now you build your old boys summer camp, which is what it is. They got cabins with goofy names. They go there, they perform skits, they dress up in costumes.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Rick Spence
True. Some of those skits look like pagan human sacrifices, but it’s just a skit. What’s really going on there? So on the one hand you can argue, look, it’s a rich guy’s club. They like to get out there. The whole motto of the place is weaving spiders come not here. So we’re going to talk about in business. We just want to get out into the woods, put on some robes, burn a couple of effigies in front of the owl, have a good time, probably get drunk a lot.
True. Some of those skits look like pagan human sacrifices, but it’s just a skit. What’s really going on there? So on the one hand you can argue, look, it’s a rich guy’s club. They like to get out there. The whole motto of the place is weaving spiders come not here. So we’re going to talk about in business. We just want to get out into the woods, put on some robes, burn a couple of effigies in front of the owl, have a good time, probably get drunk a lot.
Lex Fridman
What’s with the robes? Why do they do weird creepy shit? Why do they put on a mask and the robe and do the plays and the owl and then sacrificing, I don’t know, whatever?
What’s with the robes? Why do they do weird creepy shit? Why do they put on a mask and the robe and do the plays and the owl and then sacrificing, I don’t know, whatever?
Rick Spence
Why do you have a giant owl?
Why do you have a giant owl?
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Rick Spence
Why do you do that?
Why do you do that?
Lex Fridman
What is that in human nature because I don’t think rich people are different than not rich people, what is it about wealth and power that brings that out of people?
What is that in human nature because I don’t think rich people are different than not rich people, what is it about wealth and power that brings that out of people?
Rick Spence
Well, part of it is the ritual aspect of it. And yeah, that clearly is a ritual. Rituals are pretty simple. Rituals are just a series of actions performed in a precise sequence to produce an effect. That describes a lot of things. It describes plays, symphonies, every movie you’ve ever seen. A movie is a ritual. It is a series of actions carried out in a precise sequence to produce an effect with an added soundtrack to cue you to what emotions you’re supposed to be feeling.
Well, part of it is the ritual aspect of it. And yeah, that clearly is a ritual. Rituals are pretty simple. Rituals are just a series of actions performed in a precise sequence to produce an effect. That describes a lot of things. It describes plays, symphonies, every movie you’ve ever seen. A movie is a ritual. It is a series of actions carried out in a precise sequence to produce an effect with an added soundtrack to cue you to what emotions you’re supposed to be feeling.
Lex Fridman
It’s a great idea. So the rich people should just go to a movie or maybe just go to a Taylor Swift concert. Why do you have to, why the owl thing?
It’s a great idea. So the rich people should just go to a movie or maybe just go to a Taylor Swift concert. Why do you have to, why the owl thing?
Rick Spence
Part of it is to create this kind of sense, I suppose, of group solidarity. You’re all going to appear and also a way of transcending yourself in a way. When you put on the robe, it’s like putting on a uniform. You are in some way a different or more important person. It’s a ritual. Okay. The key ritual at Bohemian Grove is a thing called the cremation of care. And that’s what it’s supposed to be. “We’re going to put all of our, we’re rich, important people. We have to make all of these critical decisions. Life is so hard. So we’re going to go out here in the woods and we’re going to kick back and we’re all going to gather around the lake and then we’re going to carry,” it’s wicker, it’s not a real person. And how would you know? “And this is the cremation of our care,” but it’s a ritual which is meant to produce a sense of solidarity and relief among those people who are there.
Part of it is to create this kind of sense, I suppose, of group solidarity. You’re all going to appear and also a way of transcending yourself in a way. When you put on the robe, it’s like putting on a uniform. You are in some way a different or more important person. It’s a ritual. Okay. The key ritual at Bohemian Grove is a thing called the cremation of care. And that’s what it’s supposed to be. “We’re going to put all of our, we’re rich, important people. We have to make all of these critical decisions. Life is so hard. So we’re going to go out here in the woods and we’re going to kick back and we’re all going to gather around the lake and then we’re going to carry,” it’s wicker, it’s not a real person. And how would you know? “And this is the cremation of our care,” but it’s a ritual which is meant to produce a sense of solidarity and relief among those people who are there.
The question comes down with the rituals as how seriously do you take them? How important is this to the people who carry them out? And the interesting answer to that is that for some people it’s just boring. There are probably people standing around the owl who think this is ridiculous and can’t wait for it to get over with. There are the people that are kind of excited about it, get caught up into it, but other people can take it very seriously. It’s all the matter of the intention that you have about what the ritual means. And I don’t mean to suggest by that that there’s anything necessarily sinister about what’s going on, but it is clearly a ritual carried out for some kind of group reinforcing purpose. And you’re absolutely right. You don’t have to do it that way. I’ve gone to summer camps and we never carried out mock sacrifices in front of an owl. We did all those other things. We didn’t even have any robes either. So it goes beyond merely a rich guy summer camp, although that’s an aspect of it.
But it also I think often obscures, focusing on Bohemian Grove at the getaway of the club, ignores that the club is around all the time. That’s what’s at the center of this, it is the club and its members. So despite all the talk about no weaving spiders coming around here, one of the other features of the summer meeting are things called lakeside talks. And this, often people are invited to go there. And one of the people who was invited, I think around 1968, was Richard Nixon who was making his political comeback. And he was invited to give a talk where very important people are listening. And Nixon in his memoirs, realized what was going on. He was being auditioned as to whether or not he was going to be [inaudible 00:57:19], he recognized that that was really the beginning of his second presidential campaign. He was being vetted.
So one of the main theories, call it a conspiracy theory or not, about the Bohemian Club and the gatherings, is that people of wealth and influence gather together and whether or not it’s part of the agenda or not, inevitably you’re going to talk about things of interest. But to me, the mere fact that you invite people in, political leaders, to give lakeside talks means that there are weaving spiders which are going on and it is a perfect private venue to vet people for political office.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, where else are you going to do it, if you are interested in vetting, if you are interesting and powerful people selecting?
Yeah, where else are you going to do it, if you are interested in vetting, if you are interesting and powerful people selecting?
Rick Spence
Well see, here’s the question. Are these guys actually picking who’s going to be president? Is that the decision which is being made or are they just deciding what horses they’re going to back?
Well see, here’s the question. Are these guys actually picking who’s going to be president? Is that the decision which is being made or are they just deciding what horses they’re going to back?
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Rick Spence
I think the latter is the simpler version of it, but it doesn’t mean it’s the other way around. But these are the kinds of, Nixon was, there was the whole 1960 thing. So he’s the new Nixon, remember, and this is where the new Nixon apparently made a good impression on the right people because he did indeed get the Republican nomination and he did indeed become president.
I think the latter is the simpler version of it, but it doesn’t mean it’s the other way around. But these are the kinds of, Nixon was, there was the whole 1960 thing. So he’s the new Nixon, remember, and this is where the new Nixon apparently made a good impression on the right people because he did indeed get the Republican nomination and he did indeed become president.
Lex Fridman
Well, there could also be a much more innocent explanation of really it’s powerful people getting together and having conversations and through that conversation, influencing each other’s view of the world and just having a legitimate discussion of policies, foreign policy.
Well, there could also be a much more innocent explanation of really it’s powerful people getting together and having conversations and through that conversation, influencing each other’s view of the world and just having a legitimate discussion of policies, foreign policy.
Rick Spence
Why wouldn’t they? Why would you assume that people are not going to do that?
Why wouldn’t they? Why would you assume that people are not going to do that?
Lex Fridman
It’s the owl thing with the robes.
It’s the owl thing with the robes.
Rick Spence
Why the owl and why the robes?
Why the owl and why the robes?
Lex Fridman
Which is why it becomes really compelling when guys like Alex Jones, forgive me, but I have not watched his documentary, I probably should at some point, about the Bohemian Grove where he claims that there is a Satanist human sacrifice of, I think, children. And I think that’s quite a popular conspiracy theory. Or has lost popularity, it kind of transformed itself into the QAnon set of conspiracy theories. But can you speak to that conspiracy?
Which is why it becomes really compelling when guys like Alex Jones, forgive me, but I have not watched his documentary, I probably should at some point, about the Bohemian Grove where he claims that there is a Satanist human sacrifice of, I think, children. And I think that’s quite a popular conspiracy theory. Or has lost popularity, it kind of transformed itself into the QAnon set of conspiracy theories. But can you speak to that conspiracy?
Rick Spence
Let’s put it this way, the general public rich people are inherently suspicious.
Let’s put it this way, the general public rich people are inherently suspicious.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Great.
Yeah. Great.
Rick Spence
Let’s put it that way. First of all, they’ve got all that money. And exactly how did one obtain it? And I do not of necessity adhere to the view that behind every great fortune there is a great crime, but there often are. There are ways in which it’s acquired. But I think it’s one of the things I think that can happen is particularly when people acquire a huge amount of money, and I won’t name any names, but let’s say there are people who perhaps in the tech sphere who coming from no particular background of wealth, suddenly find themselves with $600 billion. Whoa. This is the question you would have to ask yourself. Why me? Because you’re one of the rare, tiny group of human beings who will ever have that kind of wealth in your hands. Even if you are a convinced atheist, I think at some point, you have to begin to suspect that the cosmic muffin, providence, whatever it is, put this money in your hands to do what? Achieve great things. Just think of all the stuff.
Let’s put it that way. First of all, they’ve got all that money. And exactly how did one obtain it? And I do not of necessity adhere to the view that behind every great fortune there is a great crime, but there often are. There are ways in which it’s acquired. But I think it’s one of the things I think that can happen is particularly when people acquire a huge amount of money, and I won’t name any names, but let’s say there are people who perhaps in the tech sphere who coming from no particular background of wealth, suddenly find themselves with $600 billion. Whoa. This is the question you would have to ask yourself. Why me? Because you’re one of the rare, tiny group of human beings who will ever have that kind of wealth in your hands. Even if you are a convinced atheist, I think at some point, you have to begin to suspect that the cosmic muffin, providence, whatever it is, put this money in your hands to do what? Achieve great things. Just think of all the stuff.
So you’re going to start a foundation and you’re going to start backing all the things that you like. I think there’s an element of ego that comes in with it as well. And again, it may not be so much what the rich person with a huge amount of money at their disposal and a lot of fuzzy ideas about what to do with it can be influenced by others. It’s always that question as to who is actually manipulating these events? What’s going on in that regard? In some way, they can be a very useful sucker. Find somebody with a lot of money and get them to finance the things that you want them to do.
The Bohemian Club is I don’t think in and of itself inherently evil or sinister, but it means that there are lots of different people in it who have different agendas. It goes back to what I said about how somebody feels about the cremation of care ritual. This is either just a waste of time, it’s just some sort of silly thing that we’re doing or it’s something of great importance. Perhaps even mystical or religious importance. Because that’s ostensibly what it’s pretending to be. There’s always this question as to what degree you begin to play and the play becomes serious. That tends to happen a lot.
Occultism
Lex Fridman
You’ve studied a lot of cults and occultism, what do you think is the power of that mystical experience?
You’ve studied a lot of cults and occultism, what do you think is the power of that mystical experience?
Rick Spence
Well, what is broadly referred to… Well, we get into what’s occultism, what’s the occult? The occult is the hidden, that’s all it really means. Specifically, hidden from sight. And the basis of it is the idea that what is hidden, well, what is hidden from us is most of the world, most of reality. So the basic concept within occultism, the basic concept within most religions, which are approved forms of occultism, is that the world, the physical world that we are aware of is only a very small part of a much larger reality. And that what the methods and practices of occultism arguably do is to allow someone to either enter into this larger reality or to access that larger reality for purposes to be exploited here. The most interesting statement about and a key element of this becomes the thing called magic.
Well, what is broadly referred to… Well, we get into what’s occultism, what’s the occult? The occult is the hidden, that’s all it really means. Specifically, hidden from sight. And the basis of it is the idea that what is hidden, well, what is hidden from us is most of the world, most of reality. So the basic concept within occultism, the basic concept within most religions, which are approved forms of occultism, is that the world, the physical world that we are aware of is only a very small part of a much larger reality. And that what the methods and practices of occultism arguably do is to allow someone to either enter into this larger reality or to access that larger reality for purposes to be exploited here. The most interesting statement about and a key element of this becomes the thing called magic.
Now, we all know magic, it’s a guy standing on stage performing a trick. But the interesting thing about a stage magician is that a stage magician is we know when we’re watching it that it’s a trick, yet we can’t really figure out, if he does it well, how that trick is being accomplished because it seems to defy physical laws. And that’s fascinating about it. So even though it’s a trick, if you can’t figure it out, it has this kind of power of fascination. But it’s mimicking something. Stage magic is mimicking real magic. So what’s real magic. Well, let’s go back to Aleister Crowley because he always has to come. I knew he was going to come up at some point in this, earlier than not, because he always does.
Lex Fridman
All roads lead to Aleister.
All roads lead to Aleister.
Rick Spence
All roads lead to Aleister Crowley. Aleister Crowley and I’ve said this enough that I should be able to get it right, but I’m paraphrasing here, he goes, ” Magick,” which of course her spelled with a K or CK, “is the art and science of causing change to occur in conformity with will?” So in a way, that’s sort of mind over matter. But it’s the idea that one can through will, through intention bend reality to make something happen. Somebody once put it this way, it’s tipping the luck plane. So you got some kind of a level plane. What we’re just trying to do is just tip it just a little bit so the marble rolls over one side or to another. Now that presupposes a lot of things, that is there a luck plane? I don’t know. But it’s a good sort of idea to have. And here again, don’t become overly bothered trying to figure out whether you actually can bend reality, become bothered by the fact that there are people who believe that they can and will go to great efforts to do so and will often believe they have succeeded.
All roads lead to Aleister Crowley. Aleister Crowley and I’ve said this enough that I should be able to get it right, but I’m paraphrasing here, he goes, ” Magick,” which of course her spelled with a K or CK, “is the art and science of causing change to occur in conformity with will?” So in a way, that’s sort of mind over matter. But it’s the idea that one can through will, through intention bend reality to make something happen. Somebody once put it this way, it’s tipping the luck plane. So you got some kind of a level plane. What we’re just trying to do is just tip it just a little bit so the marble rolls over one side or to another. Now that presupposes a lot of things, that is there a luck plane? I don’t know. But it’s a good sort of idea to have. And here again, don’t become overly bothered trying to figure out whether you actually can bend reality, become bothered by the fact that there are people who believe that they can and will go to great efforts to do so and will often believe they have succeeded.
So it’s this effort to make things occur in a particular way, maybe just to sort of nudge reality in one little way or another. And that’s where things like rituals come in. Rituals are a way of focusing will and intention. We’re all there. We’re all thinking about the same thing. And you have to imagine just how the pervasiveness of what could be called that kind of magical thinking every day is everywhere. So let me give you an example. You ever attended a high school football pep rally? Think of what’s going on there. Okay, your team is going to battle the other team. You’ve now assembled everyone in the gymnasium. You’ve got people who are dancing around in animal totem costumes. And what are you chanting? Everyone is supposed to chant that the other team dies, that you’ll be horribly defeated and that our team will be victorious.
That is a magic ritual. The idea is it becomes into this idea that’s very popular today about visualizing things, visualizing, manifesting. I love this term. You need to manifest your success. Well, that’s just magic. That is trying to cause change in conformity with will. So these things can happen without you being even consciously aware of what’s going on. And you don’t need to be because if you’re all a part of a mob, which is there in the gymnasium and you get into this and you get worked up and a cultist would argue what you’re doing is you’re creating a huge amount of energy. All of these people are putting energy into something and that energy goes somewhere. And maybe you can. Maybe, just maybe, you actually can slightly increase the chances of your team’s victory. Of course, your opponents are having their own ritual at the same time. So whoever has the bigger mojo will apparently win on the team.
Lex Fridman
So I would say trivial example of that, but a clear one. I do believe that there’s incredible power in groups of humans getting together and morphing reality. I think that’s probably one of the things that made human civilization what it is. Groups of people being able to believe a thing and bring that belief into reality.
So I would say trivial example of that, but a clear one. I do believe that there’s incredible power in groups of humans getting together and morphing reality. I think that’s probably one of the things that made human civilization what it is. Groups of people being able to believe a thing and bring that belief into reality.
Rick Spence
Yes, you’re exactly right. Bring to conceive of something and then through intention, will, to manifest that into this realm.
Yes, you’re exactly right. Bring to conceive of something and then through intention, will, to manifest that into this realm.
Lex Fridman
And of course, that power of the collective mind can be leveraged by charismatic leaders to do all kinds of stuff, where you get cults that do horrible things or anything.
And of course, that power of the collective mind can be leveraged by charismatic leaders to do all kinds of stuff, where you get cults that do horrible things or anything.
Rick Spence
There might be a cult that does good things. I don’t know. It depends.
There might be a cult that does good things. I don’t know. It depends.
Lex Fridman
We usually don’t call those cults.
We usually don’t call those cults.
Rick Spence
We don’t call those cults.
We don’t call those cults.
Lex Fridman
Exactly. A hundred percent.
Exactly. A hundred percent.
Rick Spence
Without endorsing this entirely and interesting, one of the questions, what’s the difference between a cult and a religion? And it has been said that in the case of a cult, there’s always someone at the top who knows what’s going on, generally, who knows it’s a scam. In a religion, that person is dead. So see, I’ve just managed to insult every single religion. But it’s an…
Without endorsing this entirely and interesting, one of the questions, what’s the difference between a cult and a religion? And it has been said that in the case of a cult, there’s always someone at the top who knows what’s going on, generally, who knows it’s a scam. In a religion, that person is dead. So see, I’ve just managed to insult every single religion. But it’s an…
Rick Spence
… Insult every single… But, it’s an interesting way of thinking about it, because I think there is some degree of accuracy in that statement.
… Insult every single… But, it’s an interesting way of thinking about it, because I think there is some degree of accuracy in that statement.
Lex Fridman
Actually, the interesting psychological question is, in cults, do you think the person at the top always knows that it’s a scam? Do you think there’s something about the human mind where you gradually begin to believe it?
Actually, the interesting psychological question is, in cults, do you think the person at the top always knows that it’s a scam? Do you think there’s something about the human mind where you gradually begin to believe it?
Rick Spence
Begin to believe your own bullshit?
Begin to believe your own bullshit?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Rick Spence
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
That seems to be-
That seems to be-
Rick Spence
That, again, is part of magic, I think, is believing your own bullshit. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the head of the cult realized, but there’s someone, maybe the second… I always look in the lieutenant, someone probably has an idea about what’s going on. The other thing that seems to be a dead giveaway for what we would call a cult is what’s called excessive reverence for the leader. People just believe everything these people say. To give you an example, the first time I ever encountered anything like that was in Santa Barbara, California in the 1970s. I was going to grad school. And there was a particular cult locally, I think it was Brotherhood of the Son. And, it was the same. So there was some guy who… Among the other things, followers were convinced to hand over all their money and personal belongings to him. I believe he used part of that money to buy a yacht with. Anyway. A lot of it went to him.
That, again, is part of magic, I think, is believing your own bullshit. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the head of the cult realized, but there’s someone, maybe the second… I always look in the lieutenant, someone probably has an idea about what’s going on. The other thing that seems to be a dead giveaway for what we would call a cult is what’s called excessive reverence for the leader. People just believe everything these people say. To give you an example, the first time I ever encountered anything like that was in Santa Barbara, California in the 1970s. I was going to grad school. And there was a particular cult locally, I think it was Brotherhood of the Son. And, it was the same. So there was some guy who… Among the other things, followers were convinced to hand over all their money and personal belongings to him. I believe he used part of that money to buy a yacht with. Anyway. A lot of it went to him.
And then, of course, working for free upon different cult-owned business enterprises, of which there were several. And there was a person I knew who became a devoted follower of this, and all I could think of at one point was ask them, “What the hell is the matter with you? I mean, have you lost your mind? What is it that this person can possibly be providing that you essentially are going to become a slave to them?” Which is what they were doing. And I actually give that credit in a way of sparking my whole interest in things like secret societies. And here, again, as a disclaimer, I am not now, nor have I ever been the member of any fraternal organization, secret society, or cult that I know of. And that’s what interests me about them, because I’m just always trying to figure out why people do these things. Like I said, why the robes and the owl? Why?
Lex Fridman
… Yeah.
… Yeah.
Rick Spence
Why do you do that? And, it’s trying to figure it out. I mean, I couldn’t even hack the boy scouts. Okay? That was too much. Because to me, you join an organization and the first thing that comes along is there are rules and someone is telling you what to do. Okay? I don’t like people telling me what to do. Spent much of my life trying to avoid that as much as possible. And, join a cult, there’s going to be someone telling you what to do. Join the Bohemian Club, and there’s going to be someone telling you what to do. Obviously, a lot of people really get something out of that. In some ways, it’s necessary for them to function. But I do not understand it and my study of it is a personal error to try to understand why people do that.
Why do you do that? And, it’s trying to figure it out. I mean, I couldn’t even hack the boy scouts. Okay? That was too much. Because to me, you join an organization and the first thing that comes along is there are rules and someone is telling you what to do. Okay? I don’t like people telling me what to do. Spent much of my life trying to avoid that as much as possible. And, join a cult, there’s going to be someone telling you what to do. Join the Bohemian Club, and there’s going to be someone telling you what to do. Obviously, a lot of people really get something out of that. In some ways, it’s necessary for them to function. But I do not understand it and my study of it is a personal error to try to understand why people do that.
Lex Fridman
And there are so many reasons, primary of which I would say is the desire in the human heart to belong. And, the dark forms that takes throughout human history. Recent history is something I’d love to talk to you a bit about. If we can go back to the beginning of the 20th century on the German side, you’ve described how secret societies like The Thule Society lay the foundation for Nazi ideology. Can you, through that lens, from that perspective, describe the rise of the Nazi party?
And there are so many reasons, primary of which I would say is the desire in the human heart to belong. And, the dark forms that takes throughout human history. Recent history is something I’d love to talk to you a bit about. If we can go back to the beginning of the 20th century on the German side, you’ve described how secret societies like The Thule Society lay the foundation for Nazi ideology. Can you, through that lens, from that perspective, describe the rise of the Nazi party?
Nazi party and Thule society
Rick Spence
Well, I guess we could start with what on earth is The Thule Society? So The Thule Society was a small German occult society. That is, they studied metaphysics, another fancy word for occultism, that appeared in Munich around 1917, 1918. The key figure behind it was a German esotericist by the name of Rudolf von Sebottendorff. Okay, not his real name. His real name was Adam Rudolf Glauer. He was adopted by a German nobleman and got the name von Sebottendorff, and I like to say that name.
Well, I guess we could start with what on earth is The Thule Society? So The Thule Society was a small German occult society. That is, they studied metaphysics, another fancy word for occultism, that appeared in Munich around 1917, 1918. The key figure behind it was a German esotericist by the name of Rudolf von Sebottendorff. Okay, not his real name. His real name was Adam Rudolf Glauer. He was adopted by a German nobleman and got the name von Sebottendorff, and I like to say that name.
So, I have this real thing about vague, mysterious characters who show up and do things, and trying to figure out who these people are. So we’re working up the years prior to the first World War. So, the decade or so prior to World War I, he spends a lot of time in the Ottoman Empire, Turkey. There was none in the Ottoman Empire, which was a fairly tumultuous place, because in 1908 and 1909, there was the Young Turk Revolution. And, you had a military coup, which effectively overthrew the Ottoman Sultan and installed a military junta, which would go on during the first World War to make its greatest achievement in the Armenian Genocide. Eventually, it created a genocidal military regime which would lead the country into a disastrous first world war, which would destroy the Ottoman Empire, out of which modern Turkey emerges. Yada, yada, yada.
Lex Fridman
And by the way, we should take a tiny tangent here, which is, that you refer to the intelligence agencies as being exceptionally successful. And, here in the case of the Young Turks being also very successful in doing the genocide, meaning they’ve achieved the greatest impact, even though the impact on the scale of good to evil tends towards evil.
And by the way, we should take a tiny tangent here, which is, that you refer to the intelligence agencies as being exceptionally successful. And, here in the case of the Young Turks being also very successful in doing the genocide, meaning they’ve achieved the greatest impact, even though the impact on the scale of good to evil tends towards evil.
Rick Spence
It’s one of those things that often comes out of revolutionary situations. Revolutions always seek to make things better. Don’t they? “We’re going to take a bad old regime. The Sultan is…” And the Sultan was bad, I think it’s fair to say. Abdul Hamid II wasn’t called a red sultan because of his favorite color type of thing. And, the idea is that they were going to improve. The Ottoman Empire was a multinational empire. They were going to try to equalize and bring in the different groups. And, none of that happened. It became worse, in the same way that you could argue that the goal of Russian revolutionaries was to get rid of the bad old, incompetent, medieval Tsarist regime and to bring in a new great shining future. And it became even more authoritarian. And, the crimes of the Imperial Russian regime pale in significance of what would follow, in the same way that the crimes of Abdul Hamid pale when you get to the Young Turks.
It’s one of those things that often comes out of revolutionary situations. Revolutions always seek to make things better. Don’t they? “We’re going to take a bad old regime. The Sultan is…” And the Sultan was bad, I think it’s fair to say. Abdul Hamid II wasn’t called a red sultan because of his favorite color type of thing. And, the idea is that they were going to improve. The Ottoman Empire was a multinational empire. They were going to try to equalize and bring in the different groups. And, none of that happened. It became worse, in the same way that you could argue that the goal of Russian revolutionaries was to get rid of the bad old, incompetent, medieval Tsarist regime and to bring in a new great shining future. And it became even more authoritarian. And, the crimes of the Imperial Russian regime pale in significance of what would follow, in the same way that the crimes of Abdul Hamid pale when you get to the Young Turks.
But, that wasn’t necessarily the intention. But, von Sebottendorff is a German businessman who’s working in this period. And the whole point here is that the Ottoman Empire in this period is a hotbed of political intrigue and all kinds of interesting things about it. The Young Turk Revolution is essentially a military coup, but it is plotted in Masonic lodges. Okay? I know, technically Masonic lodges are never supposed to be involved in politics, but they are. Or, the lodge meeting breaks up, and then you plot the revolution. So, same group of people, but it’s not technically. But yes. And there’s the Macedonia Resorcia Lodge in Thessaloniki was ground zero for plotting this military coup that was supposed to improve the Empire. Sebottendorff is, in one way or another, mixed up in all of this, or at least he’s an observer. Plus, he’s initiated into the Masonic lodges.
And interestingly enough, the fellow initiates him into one of these eastern lodges is a Jewish merchant by the name of Termoodi, and who’s also a Kabbalist. And, Sebottendorff is very, very interested in the occult. He’s initiated into eastern Masonic lodges and a period when those same lodges are being used as a center for political intrigue. He also apparently is involved in gunrunning, which in revolutionary periods is there’s a lot of money to be made off of that. So he’s connected to various dark businesses in a tumultuous time with connections to politicized freemasonry and the occult. Now, in the course of the first World War, he returns to Germany. He just shows up. And, it would be my operative suspicion or theory that Sebottendorff was working for someone. I don’t think he just pops up in Munich on his own accord. Why does he leave the Ottoman Empire and return to that place? Who’s behind him? Now, maybe no one, but maybe someone, because he does seem to have money at his disposal. And he comes into Munich and he basically takes over this small occult study group.
Now, the interesting thing is that The Thule Society is really just a branch of another existing, what’s called, an Areosophist order, a thing called the German order, or the Germanic order, which is centered in Berlin. But for some reason, he doesn’t want his group to be connected by name with the Germanic order. So, Thule Society, Thule in this case, is a reference to supposedly a mythical Arctic homeland of the Aryan race. Apparently, they were all snow people who wander out of the snow at some point. It’s a frozen Atlantis. So I mentioned these people, the Areosophists, which, you have to practice saying that. So, what are they? Well, they’re a racist Germanic offshoot of Theosophy. And, I know I’m explaining one thing to explain something, but there’s no other way to do this.
So, Theosophy was 19th century very popular and widely modeled occult belief that was founded by a Russian woman by the name of Helena Blavatsky. She was a medium psychic, supposedly got channelings from the ascended masters. The basic story there, they’re all of the ascended masters, which are mystical beings that may or may not have once been human. They live inside the Himalayas or they float among them on a cloud, and they guide the spiritual evolution of humanity. What Blavatsky did was to take Western esotericism and blend it with Hindu and Buddhist esotericism, which became very, very sexy in the West, still is. Buddhism attracts a lot of people, because, well, it’s Buddhism, it’s different, see? So, the Mahatmas, the ascended masters were sending her messages, despite the fact that she was later proven pretty much to be a fraud and writing the letters herself. Nevertheless, people still went along with this doctrine, and it’s been widely modified and copied since then. So, an idea in Theosophy was that human spiritual evolution was tied to physical evolution.
In the case of Blavatsky, Blavatsky never said that Aryans, white people, anything out this superior. She talked about the different root races, but their version of it’s just gobbledygook that seems to include everyone in. I’d defy you to make much sense out of it. But, in the early 20th century, there were different… One of the things that became fashionable, not terribly popular, these are small movements, was the idea that, well, Germany is a new upcoming country, and part of this I think was really trying to define who the Germans were, because remember, the German Empire, Germany as a political state, doesn’t come until existence until 1871. Prior to that, Germany was a geographic expression, a vaguen, which described a large area in Central Europe where a lot of people who wore leather shorts or something like that and spoke similar German dialects were nominally Germans, but they might be Prussians or Bavarians. They came in all sorts of varieties in religion. There was no German identity.
Something very similar happened in Italy in this same period. I mean, there weren’t Italians, there were Sardinians, and there were Romans, and there were Sicilians. Umbrians spoke, again, dialects of a similar language, but had never lived, not since the Roman Empire under a single state and really didn’t think of themselves as the same. So you have to create this artificial thing. You have to create Germans. “There is now a Germany with an emperor. And so, we’re all going to be Germans.” Well, exactly what is that? Much of it is an artificial creation. You have to decide upon some standard dialect. Okay, we’ll decide what that is. Often dialect that only a few people actually speak, and then they will be drilled into children’s heads through state schooling programs. So I think this is the milieu that it comes out of. People were trying to figure out what on earth Germans actually were. And, the need for some common identity. And, that leads to everything like Wagnerian Opera. Richard Wagner wanted to create a German mythical music. So he went back and strip mined old German myths and cobbled them together into a lot of people standing on stage singing. And, that was his purpose. He was a nationalist. He was in many ways a racialist nationalist. And this was his idea of trying to create out of bits and pieces of the past, a newfangled form of German identity.
So, on the more mystical end of this, you had the ideas that, well, Germany must have been created for some special purpose, because the Germans must be very special people and we must have some particular destiny. And then, out of this, the direction this is heading, well, we’re all part of some master race with some ties to some great civilization in the past, call it Thule, call it whatever you want to be. They basically just invent things and try to attach those to the past. And so, Areosophy was the Areonized version of Theosophy. And what this did was to take the idea that spiritual and physical evolution had led to the most advanced form of human beings, which were the Aryans, and the most advanced group of them were, of course, the Germans. And, this attracted appeal.
Keep in mind, again, this was not a mass movement. This was very much a fringe movement. Most people weren’t aware of it and weren’t particularly interested in it, but it had an appeal for those who already had a esoteric bent in some form or another. And, this is where things like the Germanin order or the German order and their other groups, it was only one of many, grew out of. And, what it was that the Thule Society as a branch, The Thule Gesellschaft was supposed to do, was to study this. It was an esoteric study group. And so, people would get together and they’d talk about things, probably make more stuff up and all work around this idea of German Aryans as the most advanced human beings, and all the wonderful things that the future would hold.
And the fact that this was in the midst of a war in which Germany was, again, fighting, as they saw it, for its existence, heightened those tensions as well. So, my suspicion, again, is that Sebottendorff, in terms of who was behind him, that he was essentially called back to Germany to work either for the Prussian political police or for some aspect of German intelligence or security to try to mobilize occultism or esotericism for the war effort, because again, this is 1918, the war, it’s gone on way too long. Within a few months, Germany will collapse, and it will collapse simply from the psychological exhaustion of the population.
Lex Fridman
So this is almost to help the war effort with a propaganda, a narrative that can strengthen the will of the German people.
So this is almost to help the war effort with a propaganda, a narrative that can strengthen the will of the German people.
Rick Spence
Well, strengthen the will of some people.
Well, strengthen the will of some people.
Lex Fridman
Some people.
Some people.
Rick Spence
You have to try to appeal to different aspects of this. But the mystical aspect is one of those things, it can have a very powerful influence. And the idea is that if we can come up with some mystical nationalism, maybe that’s one way to put it, a mystical nationalism that can be exploited for the… Because at this point you, you’re grasping at straws, and this is a whole period when the Germans are marshalling the last of their forces to launch a series of offensives on the Western front, the Peace Offensive, which will initially be successful, but will ultimately fail, and lead to a collapse in morale. But among the leadership of Germany, it was a recognition. It was that national morale was flagging. And, one of the other things that was raising its head was what had happened nearby a year… Well, the Russian Revolution, which had now brought the idea, which brought another solution to all of this, the idea of revolutionary Marxism. Here, we need to remind ourselves as to where Marxism comes from, not Russia, Germany. Where was the largest Marxist party? In Germany.
You have to try to appeal to different aspects of this. But the mystical aspect is one of those things, it can have a very powerful influence. And the idea is that if we can come up with some mystical nationalism, maybe that’s one way to put it, a mystical nationalism that can be exploited for the… Because at this point you, you’re grasping at straws, and this is a whole period when the Germans are marshalling the last of their forces to launch a series of offensives on the Western front, the Peace Offensive, which will initially be successful, but will ultimately fail, and lead to a collapse in morale. But among the leadership of Germany, it was a recognition. It was that national morale was flagging. And, one of the other things that was raising its head was what had happened nearby a year… Well, the Russian Revolution, which had now brought the idea, which brought another solution to all of this, the idea of revolutionary Marxism. Here, we need to remind ourselves as to where Marxism comes from, not Russia, Germany. Where was the largest Marxist party? In Germany.
Lex Fridman
And Marx probably expected the revolution to begin in Germany.
And Marx probably expected the revolution to begin in Germany.
Rick Spence
Where else?
Where else?
Lex Fridman
I mean, the Soviet Union is not very industrialized. Germany is. And so, that’s where it would probably be.
I mean, the Soviet Union is not very industrialized. Germany is. And so, that’s where it would probably be.
Rick Spence
Russia, 5% of the population is industrial workers. In Germany, 40% of the population is industrial. So, if any place was made for Marxism, it was Germany. I think that’s why it caught on in East Germany so well, because it had come home. And, it was a local belief. It wasn’t something imported by the Russians. It was a German invention. One of the things you can see in this is The Thule Society was particularly involved in a anti-Marxist or anti-Bolshevik agitation. Sebottendorff saw them as this whole movement. It was a counter to this. It was a counter-Marxist movement.
Russia, 5% of the population is industrial workers. In Germany, 40% of the population is industrial. So, if any place was made for Marxism, it was Germany. I think that’s why it caught on in East Germany so well, because it had come home. And, it was a local belief. It wasn’t something imported by the Russians. It was a German invention. One of the things you can see in this is The Thule Society was particularly involved in a anti-Marxist or anti-Bolshevik agitation. Sebottendorff saw them as this whole movement. It was a counter to this. It was a counter-Marxist movement.
Lex Fridman
Can we try to break that apart in a nuanced way? So, it was a nationalist movement. The occult was part of the picture, occult racial theories. So, there’s a racial component, like the Aryan race, so it’s not just the nation of Germany. And you take that and contrast it with Marxism. Did they also formulate that in racial terms? Do they formulate that in national versus global terms? How do they see this?
Can we try to break that apart in a nuanced way? So, it was a nationalist movement. The occult was part of the picture, occult racial theories. So, there’s a racial component, like the Aryan race, so it’s not just the nation of Germany. And you take that and contrast it with Marxism. Did they also formulate that in racial terms? Do they formulate that in national versus global terms? How do they see this?
Rick Spence
Marxism formulates everything by class. Okay? People are categorized by class. You’re either part of the proletariat or you’re part of the bourgeoisie, or you’re either part of the proletariat or just some scum. Really, it needs to be swept into the dustbin of history. Only workers count. And, that was what would take someone who was a nationalist would drive them crazy, because their idea is, “We’re trying to create a German. People. We’re trying to create a common German identity.” But what the Marxists are doing is they’re dividing Germans against each other by class. German workers hate the German bourgeoisie. German proletariat as opposed to German capitalists. We’re all trying to fight this war together.
Marxism formulates everything by class. Okay? People are categorized by class. You’re either part of the proletariat or you’re part of the bourgeoisie, or you’re either part of the proletariat or just some scum. Really, it needs to be swept into the dustbin of history. Only workers count. And, that was what would take someone who was a nationalist would drive them crazy, because their idea is, “We’re trying to create a German. People. We’re trying to create a common German identity.” But what the Marxists are doing is they’re dividing Germans against each other by class. German workers hate the German bourgeoisie. German proletariat as opposed to German capitalists. We’re all trying to fight this war together.
So, that was why Marxism, particularly in the form of Bolsheism, was seen as unpatriotic. And of course, was opposed to the war as a whole, the idea that parroting Lenin was that the war was an imperialist war. And the only thing that was good that was going to come out of it is that the imperialist war, through all of the crises it was creating, would eventually lead to a class war. And that would be good, because that would reconcile all of these things. But, think of the two very different versions of this, the Bolshevist version, or let’s just call it, the Marxist version of Germany, was going to be a class society in which we’re going to have to have some civil upheaval, which will have Germans fighting Germans.
Whereas, the mystical nationalism, the almost religious nationalism that Sebottendorff from The Thule Society had hitched its wagon to held that Germans are all part of a single racial family, and that’s what must be the most important thing. And that these can be different ways of trying to influence people. It comes down to a matter of political influence. So in a sense, I think that what Sebottendorff and The Thule Society was trying to do, at least within Munich, was to use this idea of mystical nationalism as a potential rallying point for some part of the population to oppose these other forces to keep people fighting. The war is lost though in November, the Kaiser abdicates, and essentially, the socialists do take over Germany. Things come very, very close to following the Russian model. And, you even get the Russian version or take on the Bolsheviks, which are the Spartacists who try and fail to seize power early on. But you do essentially end up with a socialist Germany.
And, that then leaves in the aftermath of the war. The Thule Society is sort of the odd man out, although they’re still very closely connected to the army. And here’s one of the things that I find interesting. When you get into 1919, who is it that’s paying Sebottendorff’s bills? It’s the army. The one thing the German army is absolutely determined to do is to preserve its social position and power. And they’re perfectly willing to dump the Kaiser to do that. This deal, which is made in November of 1918, Kaiser’s abdication, the proclamation of a German Republic, which, you just had this guy declare it. It wasn’t really planned. There’s the Ebert-Groner Pact. Groner is the chief of general staff at this point. Ebert is the chief socialist politician basically, and they make an agreement. And the agreement basically is that the Army will support Ebert’s government if Ebert supports the Army. And particularly that means the continuation of the Officer Corps and the general staff in one form or another. So a deal is made. And that of course, is what will eventually help defeat the Spartacist uprising.
Lex Fridman
Now, was the Army doing the similar things that we’ve talked about with the intelligence agencies, this same trying to control the direction of public power?
Now, was the Army doing the similar things that we’ve talked about with the intelligence agencies, this same trying to control the direction of public power?
Rick Spence
The German intelligence landscape in the first World War is obscure in many ways. There are lots of things that are going on. Germany has a military intelligence service called Abteilung or Section IIIB. That’s just plain military intelligence. They’re constantly trying to collect military information before the war about the weaponry and plans of the enemies. And then, about what the operational plans were during the war. It doesn’t really go much beyond that though. The German foreign office runs a political intelligence service, and that’s the one which is much more involved in things like subsidizing subversion in Russia, which is one of the things that the Germans sign on to fairly early. Little diversion here in 1915, there is a Russian revolutionary who’s lived much of his life in Germany, who goes by the code name of Parvis. And, he essentially comes to the Germans in Constantinople, interestingly enough, in Turkey, he’s hanging around there at the same time as Sebottendorff is there, which I find curious.
The German intelligence landscape in the first World War is obscure in many ways. There are lots of things that are going on. Germany has a military intelligence service called Abteilung or Section IIIB. That’s just plain military intelligence. They’re constantly trying to collect military information before the war about the weaponry and plans of the enemies. And then, about what the operational plans were during the war. It doesn’t really go much beyond that though. The German foreign office runs a political intelligence service, and that’s the one which is much more involved in things like subsidizing subversion in Russia, which is one of the things that the Germans sign on to fairly early. Little diversion here in 1915, there is a Russian revolutionary who’s lived much of his life in Germany, who goes by the code name of Parvis. And, he essentially comes to the Germans in Constantinople, interestingly enough, in Turkey, he’s hanging around there at the same time as Sebottendorff is there, which I find curious.
So, Parvis or Alexander Helpant to give his actual name, comes to them and he goes, “Look, there’s a lot of revolutionaries in Russia and there’s a lot of mistrust with the regime. We think that the war will increase the contradictions in Russian society. And, if you give me a lot of marks, I can finance this revolutionary activity. And through subversion, I can take Russia out of the war.” Well, the Germans are facing a two-front war. That sounds great. “We’ll use money in order to…” But notice what they’re doing. The German general staff, a very conservative organization, not a bunch of revolutionaries, are going to finance revolution in an opposing country. They’re going to finance revolutionary subversion to take Russia out of the war, which basically works. So that gives you another idea as to what the German military is willing to do. They’re not revolutionaries, but they’ll pay revolutionaries to subvert another regime. Now, you’ve got the problem, is that, the revolutionary regime that your money helped bring to power is now threatening to extend into your country.
So, the whole question for the Army and for others in Germany in 1919 is how to keep Germany from going Bolshevik from, in a sense, being hoist by your own petard. So The Thule Society, I don’t think is a huge part of this program, but it is a part of it, and it’s all an effort to try to keep control. And that’s why the army is financing them. That’s even why the Army at some point then supplies them with its own propagandists. So, The Thule Society begins to create under Sebottendorff leadership, what he called, the Rings of Thule. And these are satellite organizations that aren’t the society as though, but they’re controlled and inspired by it. And one of those is a thing called the German Workers Party.
And the German Workers Party, again, is local. It’s not large, it’s not terribly influential, but what does it aspire to be? It aspires to be a party that will bring German workers away from the seductive influence of the Bolsheviks and into a more patriotic position. And, the way that I describe this is that it’s not an anti-communist organization, it’s a counter-communist organization. So you don’t create something which completely opposes it, you create something which mimics it, which is ultimately what the German Workers Party will become, is the National Socialist German Workers Party, known as that term, socialist. And that is, in my view, what Nazism is from the beginning. It is a counter-communist movement.
Lex Fridman
And by the way, for people who don’t know, the National Socialist German Workers Party is also known as the Nazi Party. So how did this evolution happen from that complicated little interplay? We should also say that a guy named Adolf Hitler is in the army at this time.
And by the way, for people who don’t know, the National Socialist German Workers Party is also known as the Nazi Party. So how did this evolution happen from that complicated little interplay? We should also say that a guy named Adolf Hitler is in the army at this time.
Rick Spence
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Man.
Man.
Rick Spence
Well, he’s going to come into this, because remember, I said the Army was going to supply its own propagandists to help the German Workers Party and The Thule Society do their work. And the propagandists they supply them with is a man who the Army trains, sends to classes to learn the art of public speaking and propaganda. And that fellow is Corporal Adolf Hitler.
Well, he’s going to come into this, because remember, I said the Army was going to supply its own propagandists to help the German Workers Party and The Thule Society do their work. And the propagandists they supply them with is a man who the Army trains, sends to classes to learn the art of public speaking and propaganda. And that fellow is Corporal Adolf Hitler.
Lex Fridman
So how does Adolf Hitler connect with the German Workers Party?
So how does Adolf Hitler connect with the German Workers Party?
Rick Spence
Well, he’d been in the Army during the war. The only regular job that he’d ever had, liked it. So you often get the view is that, well, at the end of the war, he joined millions of other German soldiers who didn’t have… No, no, he stays in the army. He stays in the Army until 1921. He’s on the Army payroll at the very time in which he has helped them to set this up. What appears to have happened is this, Sebottendorff had organized The Thule Society, they had tried to oppose. There’s actually a brief period of time in which the communists actually take over Munich, the Bavarian Soviet Republic, which doesn’t last very long. And eventually, the Army volunteers to put this down. While that’s going on by the way, Hitler is actually sitting in the barracks in Munich wearing a red armband, because he is technically part of the soldiers who have got over to the Bavarian Soviet Republic.
Well, he’d been in the Army during the war. The only regular job that he’d ever had, liked it. So you often get the view is that, well, at the end of the war, he joined millions of other German soldiers who didn’t have… No, no, he stays in the army. He stays in the Army until 1921. He’s on the Army payroll at the very time in which he has helped them to set this up. What appears to have happened is this, Sebottendorff had organized The Thule Society, they had tried to oppose. There’s actually a brief period of time in which the communists actually take over Munich, the Bavarian Soviet Republic, which doesn’t last very long. And eventually, the Army volunteers to put this down. While that’s going on by the way, Hitler is actually sitting in the barracks in Munich wearing a red armband, because he is technically part of the soldiers who have got over to the Bavarian Soviet Republic.
He seems to have had flexible interests in this case. So, once order is restored, so to speak, the army comes in and decide that, “Well, one of the things we need? We need to have people who can lecture soldiers on patriotic topics.” And so, there is a particular captain by the name of Karl Mayer who spots Hitler. He later describes him as a stray dog looking for a master. Hitler has a knack for public speaking. Other soldiers will listen to him. Some people can do that, some people can’t. Mayer decides that he’s a good candidate for further training. And so, yes, they bring him in. They turn him into a, what’s called, a [foreign language 01:43:56], a liaison man. He’s an army propagandist.
And then, you’ve got this little outfit called the German Workers Party. And essentially what happens is that Hitler is sent in to take over leadership of that, which is what happens. He shows up, he attends a meeting, there are 50 people there. By the way, the topic of the first meeting he’s at, is how and why capitalism should be abolished, which is not what you might, well, expect. Because remember, the German Workers Party is trying to cast itself as a counter Bolshevism. So it’s not saying that capitalism is great, which is important. No, capitalism is evil. We agree upon that. We just agree it has to be destroyed from a nationalist point of view, as opposed from some strange internationalist point of view. So Hitler is essentially, as I see it, sent in by the Army as their trained man to assume leadership within this small party and to use it-
Rick Spence
To assume leadership within this small party and to use it for the army’s patriotic propaganda campaign. And is a season doing so even to the name change, to the National Socialist or German Workers Party. I mean, really what sounds more red than that?
To assume leadership within this small party and to use it for the army’s patriotic propaganda campaign. And is a season doing so even to the name change, to the National Socialist or German Workers Party. I mean, really what sounds more red than that?
Lex Fridman
So the interesting thing here is from where did anti-Semitism seep into this whole thing? It seems like the way they try to formulate counter-Marxism is by saying the problem with capitalism and the problem with Marxism is that it’s really Judeo-capitalism and, “Judeo-Bolshevism”. From where did that ideology seep in?
So the interesting thing here is from where did anti-Semitism seep into this whole thing? It seems like the way they try to formulate counter-Marxism is by saying the problem with capitalism and the problem with Marxism is that it’s really Judeo-capitalism and, “Judeo-Bolshevism”. From where did that ideology seep in?
Rick Spence
Well, that’s a huge topic. Where does anti-Semitism come from? Let’s start with that term itself. A term which I have really grown increasingly to dislike because it doesn’t actually say what it means. Anti-Semitism is anti-Jewism. That’s all it is. I’m not sure whether there has ever existed a person who hated Jews, Arabs, and Maltese equally. Okay. That’s kind of hard to imagine. I don’t know. But that’s technically what that would mean because let’s face it, most Semites are Arabs. So if you’re an anti-Semite, then you don’t seem to distinguish Jews from Arabs. It makes no sense. The origin of the term is invented by, guess what? An anti-Semite. Okay. A guy in the 1870s, a German journalist by the name of Wilhelm Marr, who is, wouldn’t you know it part Jewish himself. And who decides that you really needed a better term than Judenhass, Jew hate, which was the term that, because that just sounds so inelegant, doesn’t it?
Well, that’s a huge topic. Where does anti-Semitism come from? Let’s start with that term itself. A term which I have really grown increasingly to dislike because it doesn’t actually say what it means. Anti-Semitism is anti-Jewism. That’s all it is. I’m not sure whether there has ever existed a person who hated Jews, Arabs, and Maltese equally. Okay. That’s kind of hard to imagine. I don’t know. But that’s technically what that would mean because let’s face it, most Semites are Arabs. So if you’re an anti-Semite, then you don’t seem to distinguish Jews from Arabs. It makes no sense. The origin of the term is invented by, guess what? An anti-Semite. Okay. A guy in the 1870s, a German journalist by the name of Wilhelm Marr, who is, wouldn’t you know it part Jewish himself. And who decides that you really needed a better term than Judenhass, Jew hate, which was the term that, because that just sounds so inelegant, doesn’t it?
Okay. What do you want to call yourself a Jew-hater or an anti-Semite? See, anti-Semitism, it’s got that ism part of the end of it, which means it’s a system of belief. Anything that has an ism must somehow be scientific and important. It’s all part of the 19th century obsession with trying to bring science into something, one or the other. So we’re going to get rid of Jew-hate, and we’re going to turn it into anti-Semitism. And we’re only going to be talking about Jews, but we’ll never actually say that. And somehow the invention of a Jew-hater to disguise the fact that he’s a Jew-hater, even though he’s partly Jewish by inventing the term anti-Semitism worked because everybody has bought it and repeated it ever since. So I don’t know, maybe just because anti-Jewism would just be, is it too direct in some way? Do we have difficulty confronting actually what it is that we’re talking about?
Lex Fridman
I do wish terms were a little bit more direct and self-explanatory. Yeah, Jew-hate is a better term.
I do wish terms were a little bit more direct and self-explanatory. Yeah, Jew-hate is a better term.
Rick Spence
Well, the question then comes, what exactly do you hate about Jews? And a lot of this has to do with, if you go back prior to the 19th century, if Jews were hated, they were hated for religious reasons. In Christian Europe, they were hated because they weren’t Christians and they existed as the only kind of significant religious minority. But other than that, they tended to live separately. They had little economic influence. Jews tended to live in shtetls in the East, ghettos elsewhere. They were, some were involved in banking and business, but they sort of remained segregated from much of society.
Well, the question then comes, what exactly do you hate about Jews? And a lot of this has to do with, if you go back prior to the 19th century, if Jews were hated, they were hated for religious reasons. In Christian Europe, they were hated because they weren’t Christians and they existed as the only kind of significant religious minority. But other than that, they tended to live separately. They had little economic influence. Jews tended to live in shtetls in the East, ghettos elsewhere. They were, some were involved in banking and business, but they sort of remained segregated from much of society.
That changes when you get to the 19th century and with what’s called Jewish emancipation. And that means that between about 1800 and 1850, most European countries drop the various legal or social restrictions against Jews. They are assimilated into the general society. So ideally, you stop being a German Jew and you become a Jewish German. Those are two very different important concepts. And what that does, of course, is that it opens up the professions, business world, elsewhere. So Jews move who had been largely within those realms to begin with, they already had a good deal of experience in banking business, and they move into those areas and professions and become quite visible.
And that’s what then creates anti-Semitism because in some way that is seen as part of the changes that have taken place. And there are a lot of things going on here. Part of it has to do with the kind of wrenching social and economic changes that took place with industrialization. So one of the things to keep in mind is that in the process of industrialization, just like today, whole classes of people were made extinct economically, craftsmen, for instance. So when factories came along and began to produce things with machines, all the craftspeople who had made those things previously are now unemployed or go to work as wage labor in factories. So there are winners and losers in industrialization. And what people saw in Germany and elsewhere is that among this new sort of rising capitalist elite among these new professions, among the bureaucrats that are coming out of these burgeoning states, they were visibly a fair number of Jews.
So in some way, the rise of Jews in the minds of many people were connected to all of the other bad things that were going on. The world was changing in a way we don’t like. And seemingly the Jews are prospering while I am not, and that was true in Germany and elsewhere, Jews because highly visible in the professions, they became very visible in banking. They became visible in legal profession. They became visible in the medical profession. And those are people that a lot of people would come in contact with, bankers, lawyers, and doctors. They were not the majority there, but vastly overrepresented in terms of the general population and especially within the cities. So in that sense, the roots of anti-Semitism to me is that Jews in Germany and Elsewhere and not just in Germany by any means, France, Britain, everywhere else became identified with the bad changes that were taking place.
But you also found that Jews were not only prominent among capitalists, they were also prominent in the socialist movement as well. So one of the things you could look around if we returned to Germany in 1919 in the aftermath of World War I, and you look around in Bavaria or elsewhere, you tend to find that there are a lot of Jews in visible positions on the German left. Rosa Luxemburg is but one example of that, Eugen Levine, some of them came in from Russia. When the Soviets send a representative to Germany in this period, it’s Karl Radek, a Jew. So it wasn’t difficult to exploit that, to argue that just as the ranks of capitalism was full of Jews, the ranks of Bolshevism or of the revolutionary left, were full of Jews. Because you could easily go around and distinguish a great many of them.
Again, they don’t have to be the majority, they just have to be numerous, prominent, and visible, which they were. So this provided you a, in the case of the propaganda of the German army, the type of stuff that Hitler was spewed out. They could put all the anti-capitalist rhetoric in there, wanted to. The army was never going to overthrow capitalism, and the capitalists knew they weren’t going to do it. So go ahead, talk shit about us. We don’t really care. That’s not going to, because we know that the army would prevent that from happening. The way to then undermine the real enemy, it was a scene. The revolutionary left was to point out the Jewish influence there. I mean, look at Russia. Well, Lenin is up, Trotsky, there he is. Look, there’s a Jew. There’s one. Radek is a Jew. It wasn’t hard to find them in that regard.
Protocols of the Elders of Zion
Lex Fridman
You gave a lecture on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. It’s widely considered to be the most influential work of anti-Semitism ever perhaps. Can you describe this text?
You gave a lecture on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. It’s widely considered to be the most influential work of anti-Semitism ever perhaps. Can you describe this text?
Rick Spence
Well, the Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion is probably one of the most troublesome and destructive works of literature that has ever emerged. And yet its origins remain obscure. So you get a whole variety of stories about where it came from. So the one story that is often is that it was the work of the Okhrana, the Russian Secret police. And in particular, it was all crafted in 1904 and 1905 in Paris. There’s a whole description of Pyotr Rachkovsky who was the, supposedly the chief of the Okhrana at the time, was the man behind it, another fellow by the name of Matvei Golovinski was the drafter of it. And that they had this document written by a French political writer from some decades back called Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu, which they were then adapting. Usually it’s argued that they plagiarized it into the protocols.
Well, the Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion is probably one of the most troublesome and destructive works of literature that has ever emerged. And yet its origins remain obscure. So you get a whole variety of stories about where it came from. So the one story that is often is that it was the work of the Okhrana, the Russian Secret police. And in particular, it was all crafted in 1904 and 1905 in Paris. There’s a whole description of Pyotr Rachkovsky who was the, supposedly the chief of the Okhrana at the time, was the man behind it, another fellow by the name of Matvei Golovinski was the drafter of it. And that they had this document written by a French political writer from some decades back called Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu, which they were then adapting. Usually it’s argued that they plagiarized it into the protocols.
And none of that is really true. I mean, the first part about it is that at the time this supposedly took place, Rachkovsky wasn’t working for the Okhrana, he had been fired and he wasn’t in Paris. And the whole situation, which is described couldn’t have taken place because the people who did it weren’t there. It’s a story, but it provides a kind of explanation for it. So the protocols emerge, so you always have to go back. This is one of the things that I have found always useful in research, is go back to the beginning, find the first place this is mentioned, or the first version, or the first iteration. Where does it start?
So you go back to Saint Petersburg, Russia around 1903. There is a small right wing anti-Semitic newspaper published there called Znamya, banner. And it publishes in a kind of serial form a work doesn’t credit with any original author. And this is the first version of the Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion. But what it’s actually describing is a Judeo-Masonic plot to rule the world. Those two terms are always combined together. And I think in the earlier version, there’s far more mentions of Freemasons than there are Jews.
And the publisher of Znamya is closely connected to a thing called the Union of Russian People. The Union Russian Men, which was ostensibly existed to defend the empire against subversion and particularly against what it thought was Jewish subversion when they also argued that the prominence of Jews in revolutionary movements somehow proved that this was in some way a Jewish revolution. But again, this is not a mainstream newspaper. It’s not appealing to a mainstream population. Very few people saw it, but this is where it appears. Now keep in mind that’s two or three years before it’s usually said to have been written, or the other version is that there’s this crazy priest by the name of Sergei Nilus, and he wrote it or actually appended it as an appendix to his work in 1905. Now it was around before that. So Nilus didn’t create it. It wasn’t drafted in Paris in 1904 and 1905. It was serialized in an obscure right wing Russian newspaper, 1903.
Lex Fridman
And by the way, we should say that these are 24 protocols.
And by the way, we should say that these are 24 protocols.
Rick Spence
Well, it varies.
Well, it varies.
Lex Fridman
It varies.
It varies.
Rick Spence
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That are, I guess supposed to be meeting notes about the supposed cabal where the Jews and Freemasons are planning together a world domination. But it’s like meeting notes, right?
That are, I guess supposed to be meeting notes about the supposed cabal where the Jews and Freemasons are planning together a world domination. But it’s like meeting notes, right?
Rick Spence
Protocol, which are Russian term basically for notes of a meeting.
Protocol, which are Russian term basically for notes of a meeting.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Rick Spence
Well, it’s notes of a meeting. These are the goofiest things I’ve ever seen because what you’ve got here, it’s not notes. No one takes notes from a meeting that way. What you’ve got is the exposition of a Bond villain. All right. It’s all of this, boy, all them, we’re going to do this. And then the last thing you want to do is lay out, if you’ve got a plan for world domination, my suggestion would be don’t write it down. So it’s not notes of a meeting. It’s again, it’s another sort of narrative or story that’s being told. It bears no resemblance to the Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu. But what it is, the best thing, it’s not particularly readable in some ways. There was an Italian writer by the name of Cesare Michelis, who wrote a book translated in English called The Non-Existent Manuscript. And what it is, is that he takes the different versions starting with the 1902, 1903 versions and looks through the other ones, and he tries to, in the process, to reconstruct what he thinks the original might have been.
Well, it’s notes of a meeting. These are the goofiest things I’ve ever seen because what you’ve got here, it’s not notes. No one takes notes from a meeting that way. What you’ve got is the exposition of a Bond villain. All right. It’s all of this, boy, all them, we’re going to do this. And then the last thing you want to do is lay out, if you’ve got a plan for world domination, my suggestion would be don’t write it down. So it’s not notes of a meeting. It’s again, it’s another sort of narrative or story that’s being told. It bears no resemblance to the Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu. But what it is, the best thing, it’s not particularly readable in some ways. There was an Italian writer by the name of Cesare Michelis, who wrote a book translated in English called The Non-Existent Manuscript. And what it is, is that he takes the different versions starting with the 1902, 1903 versions and looks through the other ones, and he tries to, in the process, to reconstruct what he thinks the original might have been.
But the other thing he does, which was fascinating to me, is that he takes this whole sort of initial text and in bold type he indicates the paragraphs, but more often sentences or phrases that appear to be identical from the Joly work and they’re just scattered throughout it. There’s no particular rhyme or reason to it. You don’t plagiarize that way. I mean, who does that? It’s sentence here, sentence there, which has led to a peculiar theory of mine, which of course I will have to expound upon, which is that I think that the original author of the protocols was the same Maurice Joly. I think what someone stumbled across was a work which he wrote and never published, and which he just drew. It’s exactly what someone would do working from your own kind of material, because I’ve written things and then taken what I’ve written and then sort of repackaged that into something else.
Lex Fridman
Sentence here, sentence there.
Sentence here, sentence there.
Rick Spence
Yeah. And the same sort of thing comes out, only sort of bits and pieces of it remain. So why would Joly have done that? Joly was, we’re talking about a man whose career basically spanned the 1850s to 1870s. He’s an obscure figure. I’m not even totally sure he existed, I mean, but it’s one of those things you go looking for him.
Yeah. And the same sort of thing comes out, only sort of bits and pieces of it remain. So why would Joly have done that? Joly was, we’re talking about a man whose career basically spanned the 1850s to 1870s. He’s an obscure figure. I’m not even totally sure he existed, I mean, but it’s one of those things you go looking for him.
Lex Fridman
I love that you’re a scholar of people that just kind of emerge out of the darkness.
I love that you’re a scholar of people that just kind of emerge out of the darkness.
Rick Spence
They just come from nowhere.
They just come from nowhere.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And there’s the Okhrana there also. And we should also say this was, I guess the original would be written. I mean, what’s the language of the original? Russian?
Yeah. And there’s the Okhrana there also. And we should also say this was, I guess the original would be written. I mean, what’s the language of the original? Russian?
Rick Spence
Russian. But my hunch is that that’s adopted from a French version. First of all, they’re constantly harping on Freemasons, which wasn’t nearly as a big idea as there. If you go back to France in the 1890s, there’s some big scandals. Well, there’s the Dreyfus scandal. We got that. All right. Where you’ve got a Jewish officer on trial for being a traitor. All right. So that was [inaudible 02:02:34]. So you bring in the whole Jewish element. Jews is disloyal Dreyfus case 1894. Earlier you had the Panama scandal, which was this huge investment scandal when the Panama Canal company in Paris collapsed. And again many of the major players in that were Jewish financiers. And then you’ve got the Taxil hoax.
Russian. But my hunch is that that’s adopted from a French version. First of all, they’re constantly harping on Freemasons, which wasn’t nearly as a big idea as there. If you go back to France in the 1890s, there’s some big scandals. Well, there’s the Dreyfus scandal. We got that. All right. Where you’ve got a Jewish officer on trial for being a traitor. All right. So that was [inaudible 02:02:34]. So you bring in the whole Jewish element. Jews is disloyal Dreyfus case 1894. Earlier you had the Panama scandal, which was this huge investment scandal when the Panama Canal company in Paris collapsed. And again many of the major players in that were Jewish financiers. And then you’ve got the Taxil hoax.
So the Taxil hoax was the work of this guy. His real name was I think Jogand-Pages. He was kind of a French journalist. I don’t know. He started out writing porn. So I mean, he wrote things like Sex Lives of the Popes and the Erotic Bible and various things of that kind. He was a Catholic, broke with the Catholic Church, wrote bad stuff about the Popes, and apparently became a Freemason for a while, and then supposedly recanted his evil ways, went back to the church. And then under the name Leo Taxil began writing these whole series of articles, basically arguing that there was a Masonic-Satanic conspiracy run, by the way, by an American, Albert Pike. And this also included child sacrifice. It’s got Pizzagate and it is as well by a high priestess Diana Vaughan.
And so there’s like child sacrifice, weird Robie, Bohemian Grove stuff, and the Freemasons or devil worshipers going back to the Knights Templars. And so there’s a thing called the Devil in the 19th Century and the Secrets of Freemasonry, and this became a bestseller in France. So France is just obsessed with all these kinds of conspiracies. So evil, Satanic, Freemasons, evil, Jewish financiers, Dreyfus. This, this is the brew where all of this come. So want to figure out how Freemasons and Jews get connected together? France is the place where this happens.
Now, Taxil or Jogand-Pages eventually pulls another interesting thing in this around 1897, critics argue that he’s making this stuff up and demand that he present Diana Vaughan, suppose Satanic, high priestess toddler killer. And he says, oh, we’re going to have a press conference. She’ll appear and say all of this stuff as she returns to the church and possibly becomes a nun. And so people show up, high figures in the Catholic Church shows up, and he does. No Diana Vaughan and Jogand-Pages goes, it’s all a hoax. I made it up. You’re all a bunch of idiots for believing it. Okay. You, you members of the church, especially just what gullible morons you are, and that’s it. He confesses.
To this day however, you will find people who will insist that it’s actually true because they desperately want it to be true. But this is, I think the milieu that, I like that word apparently that this comes out of, and this is this whole kind of unhealthy mix. So France to me is the only place that in the decade preceding it, that something like this would be concocted. So it was either created by some sort of unknown person there. But I still think that even though he dies in like 1879, that in Maurice Joly’s troubled career, he went from being an opponent of French Emperor, Napoleon III, which is what the whole dialogues was written against.
And then he was for a time, a close political ally of a French politician by the name of Adolphe Cremieux. So Adolphe Cremieux, well, what’s he got going for him? Well, he was kind of a radical politician. He was an opponent of Napoleon III. He was a Freemason. Oh, and he was Jewish. In fact, at one point, I think he was actually the head, both of the Scottish right in France, and an important figure in the Alliance Israélite, the Jewish organization in France. So he was publicly very prominently Jewish and Masonic. So someone else who would’ve linked them together.
Joly, as he did with virtually everyone, this was a guy whose life largely consisted of dual threats and fistfights. So he gets angry at Cremieux, and it’s exactly the type of thing that he might write to vent his spleen about it. But he died, probably a suicide, that’s kind of difficult to tell in obscurity. His son seems to have inherited most of his literary works, and his son became a journalist, worked for newspapers in France in the 1890s, but was also associated with some people on the fringes of the Okhrana or the Russian press in France. So one of the little things that had happened by this time is that France and Russia had become allies, even though their political systems were completely incompatible.
And so the Russians were using money to subsidize French newspapers that were championing the alliance between the two. Russian meddling. Okay. Now they’re just paying to have the right kind of newspapers come out. So there’s this whole connection between the kind of Russian journalistic world and the French journalistic world and all of these scandals which are going on, and Joly’s son and then 10 years down the road, this thing pops up in a newspaper in Saint Petersburg. That’s where I think the origins lay.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think it took off? Why do you think it grabbed a large number of people’s imaginations and even after it was shown to be not actually what it’s supposed to be, people still believe it’s real?
Why do you think it took off? Why do you think it grabbed a large number of people’s imaginations and even after it was shown to be not actually what it’s supposed to be, people still believe it’s real?
Rick Spence
Well, it doesn’t take off immediately. Okay. Never receives any kind of wide, I mean, nobody much reads the first edition of it. It keeps getting, there is something like 18 or 19 different versions as it goes through. I mean, people leave this protocol out or leave another one. As time goes on, there’s more and more emphasis on Jews and less and less on Freemasons. So it’s sort of, and the whole thing could have begun as an anti-Masonic tract.
Well, it doesn’t take off immediately. Okay. Never receives any kind of wide, I mean, nobody much reads the first edition of it. It keeps getting, there is something like 18 or 19 different versions as it goes through. I mean, people leave this protocol out or leave another one. As time goes on, there’s more and more emphasis on Jews and less and less on Freemasons. So it’s sort of, and the whole thing could have begun as an anti-Masonic tract.
I mean, you could leave Jews out of it entirely and just turn it into a Masonic plot to rule the world, but let’s just throw them in as well since the two things are already being combined elsewhere. It doesn’t become a big deal until really after the first World War because the initial versions of it are all in Russian. And let’s face it, well, that’s widely read in Russia. It’s not much read anywhere else. It’s a different alphabet. Nobody can even see what it means. So it has no particular influence outside of Russia. But then you get to 1919 and you get all these different versions of it. So suddenly you get two English versions in the US, another English version in Britain, a German edition, a French edition, a Dutch edition. Everybody is coming up with these things. So it’s not until in the immediate aftermath of the first World War that this metastasizes and it begins to show up in all of these different foreign editions.
And I think that it just has to do with the changes that have taken place during the war. One of the things that people began looking for was that why was there a war? And we’ve just had this whole disastrous war and the world has been turned upside down. So there has to be some kind of explanation for that. I don’t know. And one of the things this offered to, see there’s this evil plan, there’s this evil plan that has been put into motion, and this could possibly explain what’s taking place. The reason with the protocols were, I think widely bought then and why they still are in many ways is the same reason that the Taxil hoax I was talking about was. Because it told a story that people wanted to believe.
So in France in the 1890s, there was widespread suspicion of Freemasons. It was seen as a somewhat sinister, secretive organization, certainly secretive. And there was also the same sort of generalized prejudices about Jews, clannish distinct, too much influence, all of the things that went on. So it was sort of easy to combined those two things together. And even though Taxil admits it was a hoax, there were those who argued that this is just too, it’s too accurate. It describes things to completely to be a hoax. And that you get the same arguments, in fact, I’ve heard the same arguments with the protocol. I don’t even buy this as an example of plagiarism, because you can’t actually prove what’s being plagiarized in any sense. To me, the protocols are a prime example of what I call a turd on a plate. These things crop up. I have to explain that now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, please.
Yeah, please.
Rick Spence
But afterward. What is a turd on a plate? Well, a turd on a plate is a turd on a plate. Suppose you come in and there’s a plate sitting on the table and there’s a turd on it. Now the first thing you’re going to wonder, is that a turd? Is it a human turd? Where did it come from? Why would someone poop on a plate? There are all these questions that come to mind. It makes no sense, but that’s what you come, it’s just there. Right. I don’t know where it came from. I don’t know why. But there’s a turd on a plate, and that’s what the protocols, that they’re just there.
But afterward. What is a turd on a plate? Well, a turd on a plate is a turd on a plate. Suppose you come in and there’s a plate sitting on the table and there’s a turd on it. Now the first thing you’re going to wonder, is that a turd? Is it a human turd? Where did it come from? Why would someone poop on a plate? There are all these questions that come to mind. It makes no sense, but that’s what you come, it’s just there. Right. I don’t know where it came from. I don’t know why. But there’s a turd on a plate, and that’s what the protocols, that they’re just there.
Lex Fridman
But the reality is just like with a turd on a plate, you take a picture of that in modern day and it becomes a meme, becomes viral and becomes a joke on all social media, and now it’s viewed by tens of millions of people or whatever. It becomes popular. So wherever the turd came from, it did captivate the imagination.
But the reality is just like with a turd on a plate, you take a picture of that in modern day and it becomes a meme, becomes viral and becomes a joke on all social media, and now it’s viewed by tens of millions of people or whatever. It becomes popular. So wherever the turd came from, it did captivate the imagination.
Rick Spence
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It did speak to something,
It did speak to something,
Rick Spence
But does it seemed to provide an explanation?
But does it seemed to provide an explanation?
Lex Fridman
Can you just speak to Jew hatred? Is it just an accident of history? Why was it the Jews versus the Freemasons? Is it the collective mind searching for small group to blame for the pains of civilization and then Jews just happened to be the thing that was selected at that moment in history?
Can you just speak to Jew hatred? Is it just an accident of history? Why was it the Jews versus the Freemasons? Is it the collective mind searching for small group to blame for the pains of civilization and then Jews just happened to be the thing that was selected at that moment in history?
Rick Spence
It goes all the way back to the Greeks. Let’s blame them. So one of the first occasions you find the idea that Jews are a distinct, mean-spirited, nasty people goes back to, and a Greco-historian named Manetho. This is around, I think 300 B.C. early, can’t even rope the Romans into this one. So Manetho is trying to write a history of the dynasties of Egypt. I think his history of dynasties of Egypt still is one of the basic works in this. But he tells this whole story, which essentially describes the kind of first blood libels, that the Jews to celebrate their various religious holidays would capture Greeks and fatten them up in the basement and then slaughter them and eat them or drain their blood or do something. Yeah. It’s just the sort of earlier version of that kind. Also, I think it repeats the sort of Egyptian version of the Exodus out of Egypt, which is quite different than the biblical version. In this case, the Egyptian, they stole all the stuff out of the Egyptian’s houses and ran off into the desert.
It goes all the way back to the Greeks. Let’s blame them. So one of the first occasions you find the idea that Jews are a distinct, mean-spirited, nasty people goes back to, and a Greco-historian named Manetho. This is around, I think 300 B.C. early, can’t even rope the Romans into this one. So Manetho is trying to write a history of the dynasties of Egypt. I think his history of dynasties of Egypt still is one of the basic works in this. But he tells this whole story, which essentially describes the kind of first blood libels, that the Jews to celebrate their various religious holidays would capture Greeks and fatten them up in the basement and then slaughter them and eat them or drain their blood or do something. Yeah. It’s just the sort of earlier version of that kind. Also, I think it repeats the sort of Egyptian version of the Exodus out of Egypt, which is quite different than the biblical version. In this case, the Egyptian, they stole all the stuff out of the Egyptian’s houses and ran off into the desert.
Lex Fridman
The Jews stole all the stuff and ran off?
The Jews stole all the stuff and ran off?
Rick Spence
Yeah, Hebrews. Hebrews robbed the Egyptians. They were taken in. We took them in and sheltered them, gave them jobs, and then they stole all the jewelry and ran away. We didn’t even chase them. We were glad to see them gone. So it’s a different narrative on that story, but it essentially portrays the Jews as being hostile, that they don’t like other people, they’re contemptuous of other people’s religions, the rest of it. And see, the Greeks tended to think of themselves as being extremely cosmopolitan. Now, the Greeks run across people worshiping other gods. They go, oh, well those are just our gods under different names. Okay. Everything was sort of adjusted into their landscape. So you end up with that kind of hostility, which was there at the time. And that was probably influenced also by some of these earlier rebellions that had taken place in Egypt.
Yeah, Hebrews. Hebrews robbed the Egyptians. They were taken in. We took them in and sheltered them, gave them jobs, and then they stole all the jewelry and ran away. We didn’t even chase them. We were glad to see them gone. So it’s a different narrative on that story, but it essentially portrays the Jews as being hostile, that they don’t like other people, they’re contemptuous of other people’s religions, the rest of it. And see, the Greeks tended to think of themselves as being extremely cosmopolitan. Now, the Greeks run across people worshiping other gods. They go, oh, well those are just our gods under different names. Okay. Everything was sort of adjusted into their landscape. So you end up with that kind of hostility, which was there at the time. And that was probably influenced also by some of these earlier rebellions that had taken place in Egypt.
During the Roman period, you not only have the Judean Rebellion in 70 A.D., but you have a couple of other uprisings in North Africa, and they were very bloody affairs. And in some cases, Jews began massacring other people around them. They start killing the Greeks and the Greeks start killing them. So there was a fair amount of, from that periodonic, a certain amount of bad blood of mutual contempt between Greeks or between Hellenes, between the people who became Hellenized as the Romans would be and the Jews. And the Romans also seems to have developed much of that idea. They considered Judea as being a horrible place to have to govern, inhabited by a stubborn, obnoxious people, not well-liked.
So that’s really where you see the earliest version of that. And the reasons for it would be complicated, but you could say is that going back to Manetho and to the Roman period, Jews, Judeans frequently experienced difficulties, conflicts with other people living around them. And part of that probably had to do with the diaspora, which was the movement. Well, you get the idea. The Romans came in and kicked everybody out, which they didn’t. Jews had been leaving Judea since it was a poor limited area. And moving into areas like North Africa, Egypt, Cyrenaica, all the way into Southern France. They moved widely around the Roman Empire. So that sense of both distinctness and hostility existed since ancient times.
So it wasn’t just, the attitude of the church towards Jews was mixed by… Well, one of the ideas, of course, is that at the end of time, just before the second coming, one of the signs, how are we going to know that Jesus is going to return and the world is going to end? Well, the Jews will all convert. There will be a mass conversion. They’ll sort of see the light. Now, so there have to be Jews around to do that, or we won’t. It’s like a canary in a coal mine. You have to have them there to tip it off. So that was one of the arguments as to why, within the church as to why Jews would not be forcibly converted beyond the fact that it’s just kind of bad policy to forcibly convert people because you don’t know whether it’s sincere, but they need to be preserved as a kind of artifact, which will then redeem itself at the end of time. It’s not something which is encouraged. It predates Christianity, and then Christianity, of course, in its own way, just sort of…
Rick Spence
… of course, in its own way, just plagiarizes the whole Jewish thing, doesn’t it? I mean, I hesitate to use that term, but that’s what you do. It’s just like, “Well, we’re the Jews now. You used to have a unique relationship with God, but now it’s been passed over to us. Thanks for the Bible.” I can remember that on my mom’s side, I was periodically exposed to Sunday school, and pretty much the Old Testament was always presented as if somehow it was the history of, for lack of better term, Europeans in some way. It was a Christian history. It was all the prequel to that. First, the term Hebrew was always used, never Jews. So the ancient Hebrews, and somehow the Hebrews just became the Christians, and I don’t know, the Jews, they didn’t get a memo or something.
… of course, in its own way, just plagiarizes the whole Jewish thing, doesn’t it? I mean, I hesitate to use that term, but that’s what you do. It’s just like, “Well, we’re the Jews now. You used to have a unique relationship with God, but now it’s been passed over to us. Thanks for the Bible.” I can remember that on my mom’s side, I was periodically exposed to Sunday school, and pretty much the Old Testament was always presented as if somehow it was the history of, for lack of better term, Europeans in some way. It was a Christian history. It was all the prequel to that. First, the term Hebrew was always used, never Jews. So the ancient Hebrews, and somehow the Hebrews just became the Christians, and I don’t know, the Jews, they didn’t get a memo or something.
Lex Fridman
So it’s basically like, Christianity, the prequel, is the Old Testament.
So it’s basically like, Christianity, the prequel, is the Old Testament.
Rick Spence
Well, they just take over. “We have the special dispensation now. Thank you very much.” You’re an artifact.
Well, they just take over. “We have the special dispensation now. Thank you very much.” You’re an artifact.
Lex Fridman
So it’s interesting. So this whole narrative that I would say is a viral meme started, as you described, in 300 BC. It just carried on in various forms and morphed itself and arrived after the Industrial Revolution in a new form to the 19th and 20th century, and then somehow captivated everybody’s imagination.
So it’s interesting. So this whole narrative that I would say is a viral meme started, as you described, in 300 BC. It just carried on in various forms and morphed itself and arrived after the Industrial Revolution in a new form to the 19th and 20th century, and then somehow captivated everybody’s imagination.
Rick Spence
I think that modern antisemitism is very much a creation of the modern world and the Industrial Revolution. It’s largely a creation of Jewish emancipation. It’s the nasty flip side of that. All of the restrictions, they’re thrown off, but now also you become the focus of much more attention than what you had before. Prior to that, you had the ghettoization, which worked both ways. I mean, there were rabbis who praised the ghettos as a protection of Jews against the outside world, because inside we can live our life as we wish and we’re unmolested. The great fear is that if we were absorbed into this larger world, we’ll lose our identity. That sort of question comes up in the 18th century in things like the Haskalah movement in Germany, because the German Jews were always at the cutting edge of assimilation and modernity. And Moses Mendelssohn was an example of that, arguing that we just need to become Germans. So as much as possible, synagogues should look like Lutheran churches. Things should be given in good German. We need to become Jewish Germans. We don’t want to become a group of people who are apart in that way, and that has created great tensions ever since.
I think that modern antisemitism is very much a creation of the modern world and the Industrial Revolution. It’s largely a creation of Jewish emancipation. It’s the nasty flip side of that. All of the restrictions, they’re thrown off, but now also you become the focus of much more attention than what you had before. Prior to that, you had the ghettoization, which worked both ways. I mean, there were rabbis who praised the ghettos as a protection of Jews against the outside world, because inside we can live our life as we wish and we’re unmolested. The great fear is that if we were absorbed into this larger world, we’ll lose our identity. That sort of question comes up in the 18th century in things like the Haskalah movement in Germany, because the German Jews were always at the cutting edge of assimilation and modernity. And Moses Mendelssohn was an example of that, arguing that we just need to become Germans. So as much as possible, synagogues should look like Lutheran churches. Things should be given in good German. We need to become Jewish Germans. We don’t want to become a group of people who are apart in that way, and that has created great tensions ever since.
One of the essential points that seems to me in antisemitism, anti-Jew-ism is that all the Jews are in this together. Isn’t that one of the things? Okay. They’re always talking about as if they’re collective. Jews this, Jews that as if it’s a single, undifferentiated mass of people who all move and speak in the same way. From my personal experience, not being Jewish, it’s incredibly diverse in many ways, really. One of the things that anti-Semitism proposes is a continuity or a singularity of Jewish identity that never existed.
Lex Fridman
Just like you said, in one hand, there’s a good story, in the other hand is the truth, and oftentimes the good story wins out. And there’s something about the idea that there’s a cabal of people, whatever they are, in this case, our discussion is Jews seeking world domination, controlling everybody is somehow a compelling story. It gives us a direction of a people to fight, of a people to hate on which we project our pain, because life is difficult. Life for most is full of suffering. And so we channel that suffering into hatred towards the other.
Just like you said, in one hand, there’s a good story, in the other hand is the truth, and oftentimes the good story wins out. And there’s something about the idea that there’s a cabal of people, whatever they are, in this case, our discussion is Jews seeking world domination, controlling everybody is somehow a compelling story. It gives us a direction of a people to fight, of a people to hate on which we project our pain, because life is difficult. Life for most is full of suffering. And so we channel that suffering into hatred towards the other.
Maybe if you can just zoom out, what do you, from this particular discussion, learn about human nature that we pick the other in this way? We divide each other up in groups and then construct stories. And we like constructing those stories, and they become really viral and sexy to us. And then we use those stories to channel our hatred towards the other.
Rick Spence
Well, yeah. Jews aren’t the only recipient of that. I mean, anytime you hear people talking about Jews this or that, white people this or that, black people this or that, Asians this or that, where they’re an undifferentiated mass, who apparently all share something in common, well, then nobody’s really thinking. And the other thing you’ll find is that people who will express those views when pressed will argue that, “Oh, well, if they actually know anybody from those groups, those are okay.” It’s like Nazis. They go, “This is an okay Jew. They’re all right.” They would always be constantly making exceptions in one form. What they actually met an actual human being, and they seemed to be fairly normal, well, they were okay. So what it was that they hated weren’t actual people for the most part, it was just this golliwog vision that they had of them. You’re not even talking about real people.
Well, yeah. Jews aren’t the only recipient of that. I mean, anytime you hear people talking about Jews this or that, white people this or that, black people this or that, Asians this or that, where they’re an undifferentiated mass, who apparently all share something in common, well, then nobody’s really thinking. And the other thing you’ll find is that people who will express those views when pressed will argue that, “Oh, well, if they actually know anybody from those groups, those are okay.” It’s like Nazis. They go, “This is an okay Jew. They’re all right.” They would always be constantly making exceptions in one form. What they actually met an actual human being, and they seemed to be fairly normal, well, they were okay. So what it was that they hated weren’t actual people for the most part, it was just this golliwog vision that they had of them. You’re not even talking about real people.
I don’t know. What does that tell you about human nature? Well, okay, in 70 odd years, what have I learned about my fellow creatures? One, I don’t actually understand them any better than I ever did. In fact, less so. I would say this, when I was 17, I thought I had the world much more figured out than I do now. Completely deluded. But it seemed to make much more sense, and I could categorize things. Basic take upon human beings, most people, most of the time are polite, cooperative and kind until they’re not. And the exact tipping point and moment in which they go from one to the other is unpredictable.
Charles Manson
Lex Fridman
God, that’s brilliantly put. Speaking of the tipping point, you gave a series of lectures on murderers, crimes in the 20th century. One of the crimes that you described is the Manson family murders, and that combines a lot of the elements of what we’ve been talking about and a lot of the elements of the human nature that you just described. So can you just tell the story at a high level as you understand it?
God, that’s brilliantly put. Speaking of the tipping point, you gave a series of lectures on murderers, crimes in the 20th century. One of the crimes that you described is the Manson family murders, and that combines a lot of the elements of what we’ve been talking about and a lot of the elements of the human nature that you just described. So can you just tell the story at a high level as you understand it?
Rick Spence
The Manson family. Well, you begin with Charles Manson, who’s the key element in this, and Charles Manson for most of his life up until the time that he’s around 33, is an unexceptional, petty criminal. In and out of prison, reform school from an early age, not really associated with violent crimes. He did stuff like steal cars, write bad checks, became an unsuccessful pimp and drug dealer. So around 1967, he gets out of his latest stint in federal lockup in Terminal Island near Los Angeles, California. By that time, he has learned how to play the guitar, has ambitions to become a musician, and also has proclaimed himself a Scientologist, not that he ever seems to have practiced, but that’s what he would claim that he was. Self-educated himself in prison to a certain degree. So when he gets out of prison in ’67, he was a model prisoner. He behaved himself and seemed… You can imagine his life is going in a completely different direction. And here, again, I’m going to say something good about Charles Manson, which is that he actually was a decent singer. If you really listened to some of the stuff he did… He’s not a great singer, but other people got recording contracts with less talent than he had, and he could play a guitar. The Beach Boys actually do record one of his songs without him.
The Manson family. Well, you begin with Charles Manson, who’s the key element in this, and Charles Manson for most of his life up until the time that he’s around 33, is an unexceptional, petty criminal. In and out of prison, reform school from an early age, not really associated with violent crimes. He did stuff like steal cars, write bad checks, became an unsuccessful pimp and drug dealer. So around 1967, he gets out of his latest stint in federal lockup in Terminal Island near Los Angeles, California. By that time, he has learned how to play the guitar, has ambitions to become a musician, and also has proclaimed himself a Scientologist, not that he ever seems to have practiced, but that’s what he would claim that he was. Self-educated himself in prison to a certain degree. So when he gets out of prison in ’67, he was a model prisoner. He behaved himself and seemed… You can imagine his life is going in a completely different direction. And here, again, I’m going to say something good about Charles Manson, which is that he actually was a decent singer. If you really listened to some of the stuff he did… He’s not a great singer, but other people got recording contracts with less talent than he had, and he could play a guitar. The Beach Boys actually do record one of his songs without him.
Lex Fridman
How would you evaluate Hitler’s painting compared to Charles Manson’s-
How would you evaluate Hitler’s painting compared to Charles Manson’s-
Rick Spence
Well, you’re supposed to say it’s terrible. It looks average to me.
Well, you’re supposed to say it’s terrible. It looks average to me.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s a landscape.
Yeah, it’s a landscape.
Rick Spence
If you didn’t know it was Hitler, I don’t know what people would say about it.
If you didn’t know it was Hitler, I don’t know what people would say about it.
Lex Fridman
I’m sorry for the distraction.
I’m sorry for the distraction.
Rick Spence
He’s an average painter. That’s what it was. It’s nothing like crazy, genocidal, maniac paintings. You don’t really have those. So Manson, he could have done that. He made certain inroads into the music industry, and if he hadn’t been such a weirdo, he might’ve gotten further with it. But his life could have taken a different turn. So this is one of the questions I have. Where did a guy who’s an unexceptional career petty criminal suddenly emerge into some sort of criminal mastermind, a Svengali who can bend all of these people to his will and get them to go out and commit murder? That’s a real shift that you have.
He’s an average painter. That’s what it was. It’s nothing like crazy, genocidal, maniac paintings. You don’t really have those. So Manson, he could have done that. He made certain inroads into the music industry, and if he hadn’t been such a weirdo, he might’ve gotten further with it. But his life could have taken a different turn. So this is one of the questions I have. Where did a guy who’s an unexceptional career petty criminal suddenly emerge into some sort of criminal mastermind, a Svengali who can bend all of these people to his will and get them to go out and commit murder? That’s a real shift that you have.
So the first thing that could tell you that something odd is going on is he gets out of prison in LA County and he’s on parole. Parolees are supposed to have a job, not supposed to leave the jurisdiction of their parole. He heads straight for the Bay Area, violates parole right off the bat. Two weeks later, he drifts into the parole office in the Bay Area, whereupon he should have been arrested and sent back to Terminal Island, but instead they just assign him a [inaudible 02:30:57]. I don’t know, maybe things were easier then in some way. So he gets assigned a parole officer, Michael Smith. Michael Smith is initially handling a number of parolees. But after a while, once he takes on Manson, he only has one parolee he’s supervising, Charlie Manson, which is odd. Then you also find out that Michael Smith, in addition to being a parole officer, is a graduate student at the University of California studying group dynamics, especially the influence of drugs on gangs in groups. He’s also connected to the Hayett Ashbury Free Clinic, which is a place where the influence of… Because Hayett Ashbury had lots of drugs and lots of groups. So Charlie Manson never gets a regular job, hangs around with young girls, ex-cons, engages in criminal activity. He is repeatedly arrested, but nothing ever sticks for the next couple of years.
Who gets that type of thing? Who gets a get out of jail free card? Informants. So here is what? Again, this is speculation, but Manson at some point after he got out of prison is getting this treatment because he is recruited as a confidential informant.
Lex Fridman
For who?
For who?
Rick Spence
For who? That’s the interesting question. So, probably not for any local police departments. My best suspicion is probably the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, precursor to the DEA. Federal parolee, federal parole officer, graduate student in drugs and group dynamics. And eventually with permission, he goes back down to LA. And what is he part of when he’s there? Well, he’s on the fringes of the music industry. The Wilsons and elsewhere, which also brings him to the fringes of the film industry. So one of the things, if you’re looking in terms of Hollywood music industry elites in the flow of… Oh, and he’s also dealing in drugs and girls. So an early version of Jeffrey Epstein. Manson attracted lots of underage runaways and trained them, used them, also associating with biker gangs who produced the drugs, et cetera.
For who? That’s the interesting question. So, probably not for any local police departments. My best suspicion is probably the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, precursor to the DEA. Federal parolee, federal parole officer, graduate student in drugs and group dynamics. And eventually with permission, he goes back down to LA. And what is he part of when he’s there? Well, he’s on the fringes of the music industry. The Wilsons and elsewhere, which also brings him to the fringes of the film industry. So one of the things, if you’re looking in terms of Hollywood music industry elites in the flow of… Oh, and he’s also dealing in drugs and girls. So an early version of Jeffrey Epstein. Manson attracted lots of underage runaways and trained them, used them, also associating with biker gangs who produced the drugs, et cetera.
So that’s part of it. He’s an informant in the movement of drugs basically within the film and music industries. And he’s given pretty much a free rein at that point. What then happens in August of 1969 is that there are these murders. First, Sharon Tate and her friends in Cielo Drive. I think everybody has probably pretty much heard that story before. And of course, the question is why Cielo Drive? Why Sharon, Tate, Frykowski and the rest of them? Manson was familiar with the place. He had been there before. Members of the family had been there before, so he knew where it was. It wasn’t an easy place to find. The original house is no longer there, but the same property and a house is built there. And if you didn’t know where it was… It’s not some place, “Let’s just go for a drive in the Hollywood Hills and murder people in a house.” Well, that isn’t the one that you would come across. There are lots of connections there. Wojciech Frykowski was one of the people killed at the Cielo Drive house, was involved in drug dealing. That’s a possible connection between the two, probably a fairly likely one. Probably not unfortunate Sharon Tate at all. She was probably in the wrong place at the wrong time. Her husband might’ve been, you never know.
And then the next night after the slaughter there… Which by the way, Manson is not at. So this is one of the interesting things about it is, Charles Manson doesn’t kill any of these people. His crime is supposedly ordering the killings to be done. He supposedly thought that the killings at the Tate house were sloppy, and he was going to give everybody a crash course in how you apparently commit seemingly random murders. So the next night he takes a group of people over to the LaBianca’s house in a different section of LA. You’ve got Leno, Rosemary LaBianca, the guy is a grocer. His wife runs a dress shop, upper middle class, and they’re bound and gagged and hacked to death. As at the Tate residence, various things like piggy are written, various messages in blood, things that are supposed to look like cat’s paws. Because one of the groups trying to be framed for this was the idea was the Black Panthers.
So the general story that comes out in the subsequent trial is that this was all a part of something called Helter Skelter, which supposedly was an idea that… That sounds like a Beatles song. That’s where he got it from. He thought the Beatles were talking to him through their music and that there was going to be an apocalyptic race war, and this was all part of a plan to set this off. So this is why the Black Panthers were trying to be implicated in this. Although, how it was supposed to do that is never really explained.
Here is what I think was really happening, what really happened and how I think it fits together. Before Sharon Tate and her friends or the LaBiancas were killed, there was a murder by members of the family of some of the same people involved in the later killings of a musician, drug manufacturer by the name of Gary Hinman. So Manson, again was involved in the drug trade, and Hinman made them. He was a cook, basically, and he brewed them up in his basement, sold the drugs to Manson, who sold them to biker gangs like the Straight Satans, which was one of the groups that he used, and they distributed them elsewhere. Well, one day, the Straight Satans show up and complain that the last batch of meth or whatever it was that they got from Manson, had made some of their brothers very, very ill, and they were quite unhappy about that, and they wanted their $2,000 back. Manson had gotten those drugs from Gary Hinman. So he is unhappy, and he sends Bobby Beausoleil, and a couple of the girls over to Hinman’s place to get the money from him. As the story is later relayed, I think by Susan Atkins, Hinman denied that there was anything wrong with his drugs and refused to pay up, which led to a interrogation torture session in which he was killed.
And the idea was here, what are we going to do with that? Well, one of the other groups that Hinman had sold drugs to were, guess what? People associated with the Black Panthers. So we’ll leave these things up and they will do it. So it’s Bobby Beausoleil who then takes Hinman’s car and decides to drive it up the coast, by the way, with a bloody knife with Hinman’s blood and hair on it, and blood on the seats in the car, and then he pulls it off the road and decides to sleep it off, and he gets busted. So, find Hinman’s body, find Beausoleil in Hinman’s car with a bloody knife with him. He gets arrested. So Beausoleil was very popular with some of the girls. There’s consternation in the family that Bobby has been arrested. So how can we possibly get Bobby out of jail? Copycat killings. So if we go kill more people and we make it look the same, then see, Bobby couldn’t possibly have done it. Now, see, he just borrowed the car. Okay, he stole the car, but the knife was already in… He didn’t have anything to do with this. So that to me makes the most sense out of what followed.
Lex Fridman
How often do people talk about that theory? That’s an interesting theory.
How often do people talk about that theory? That’s an interesting theory.
Rick Spence
Well, it’s there. It’s just not the one that… Bugliosi obviously wanted to go with Helter Skelter because again, it was a story that people could understand. It was sensational and it would catch on. Also, another probable issue in that was that his star witness was Linda Kasabian. Linda Kasabian, she was present at both the Tate and LaBianca murders. She didn’t participate in the killings, according to her. She drives the car. But everybody else talked about what had happened. Well, okay, she turns [inaudible 02:40:19] evidence and gets total immunity, and it’s largely in her testimony that all the rest of the case is based. Now, if you start throwing into the equation that she proclaimed her love for Bobby Beausoleil, and that she, according to others, was the chief proponent of the copycat killings, well then that would get messy. Now, there’s one guy that’s at the center of this, it’s Charles Manson. He ordered all of this done to ignite a race war, even though, how would any of that do it?
Well, it’s there. It’s just not the one that… Bugliosi obviously wanted to go with Helter Skelter because again, it was a story that people could understand. It was sensational and it would catch on. Also, another probable issue in that was that his star witness was Linda Kasabian. Linda Kasabian, she was present at both the Tate and LaBianca murders. She didn’t participate in the killings, according to her. She drives the car. But everybody else talked about what had happened. Well, okay, she turns [inaudible 02:40:19] evidence and gets total immunity, and it’s largely in her testimony that all the rest of the case is based. Now, if you start throwing into the equation that she proclaimed her love for Bobby Beausoleil, and that she, according to others, was the chief proponent of the copycat killings, well then that would get messy. Now, there’s one guy that’s at the center of this, it’s Charles Manson. He ordered all of this done to ignite a race war, even though, how would any of that do it?
Lex Fridman
So that doesn’t make sense. But he is nevertheless at the center of this because he’s the glue of the family. Right?
So that doesn’t make sense. But he is nevertheless at the center of this because he’s the glue of the family. Right?
Rick Spence
He exerts a tremendous amount of psychological control over them.
He exerts a tremendous amount of psychological control over them.
Lex Fridman
How was he able to do that? Sorry to interrupt. Because you said he was a petty criminal. It does seem he was pretty prolific in his petty crimes. He did a lot of them.
How was he able to do that? Sorry to interrupt. Because you said he was a petty criminal. It does seem he was pretty prolific in his petty crimes. He did a lot of them.
Rick Spence
He had a lot of access to LSD. Which he started getting at the free clinic in San Francisco. So lots of it floating around. Some descriptions of the family at Spahn Ranch is that people were basically taking acid on a daily basis, which by the way was also a potential problem with Linda Kasabian’s testimony since she also admitted to being high most of the time, and also thinking she was a witch. Where do you want to go with that? See, if Manson wasn’t Manson, if he hadn’t actually acted like the crazed hippie, psycho goofball that Bugliosi painted him as being, then Kasabian’s testimony wouldn’t have been as strong because you could… I mean, the first thing against her is you’ve got an immunity for telling the story the prosecution wants. That’s a little iffy, and we won’t even bring in the witch and the drugs and being in love with Bobby Beausoleil. So if Manson had been dressed like you, sitting there in a suit and tie, and behaved himself and spoken normally… This isn’t to say that he wasn’t guilty as hell.
He had a lot of access to LSD. Which he started getting at the free clinic in San Francisco. So lots of it floating around. Some descriptions of the family at Spahn Ranch is that people were basically taking acid on a daily basis, which by the way was also a potential problem with Linda Kasabian’s testimony since she also admitted to being high most of the time, and also thinking she was a witch. Where do you want to go with that? See, if Manson wasn’t Manson, if he hadn’t actually acted like the crazed hippie, psycho goofball that Bugliosi painted him as being, then Kasabian’s testimony wouldn’t have been as strong because you could… I mean, the first thing against her is you’ve got an immunity for telling the story the prosecution wants. That’s a little iffy, and we won’t even bring in the witch and the drugs and being in love with Bobby Beausoleil. So if Manson had been dressed like you, sitting there in a suit and tie, and behaved himself and spoken normally… This isn’t to say that he wasn’t guilty as hell.
So what he supposedly did to inspire all of these killings, and I think that’s probably beginning with the Hinman killing, he told him to go over there and get the money one way or the other. I don’t know whether he told him, “If you don’t get the money, kill him.” But, Hinman’s dead. And then he might also have seen the value in terms of having copycat killings as a way of throwing off any other blame. The other story you get is that one of the people who had lived at the Cielo house where Sharon Tate was before, was a record producer by the name of Terry Melcher. Melcher supposedly, as the general story goes, had welched on a deal with Manson in terms of a record contract. He screwed over Manson in some sort of a record deal, and Manson wanted to get revenge and sent them to kill everybody in the house, which again, doesn’t make much sense. One, Manson knew that Melcher wasn’t living there anymore. He probably knew where Melcher was living. If he wanted to get Melcher, he could have found him. It wasn’t that difficult to do.
And so it’s not revenge on Terry Melcher that drew him there. He was familiar with the house. So if the idea was to simply commit random killings that would muddy the whole waters with the Hinman killing, then you might pick some place you knew of. He knew the place was [inaudible 02:44:23]. There would be someone there, and you really didn’t care, in the same way that the LaBiancas seemed to have been. Manson was familiar with that because it supposedly had been the scene of creepy crawling. This is little interesting things that the family would be taught to do. Creepy crawling is when you sneak into somebody’s house at night while they’re there asleep, or when they’re not there, and you move things around. So when they get up in the morning or they come home, they’ll suddenly notice that someone has been in their house, which will freak them out, which is the whole point of that.
Lex Fridman
But it doesn’t seem like the murder or the creepy crawling was the… Well, creepy crawling maybe. But it doesn’t seem like the murder… Like some of the other people you’ve covered like the Zodiac Killer, the murder is the goal. Maybe there’s some psychopathic artistry to the murder that the Zodiac Killer had and the messaging behind that. But it seems like, at least the way you’re describing it with the Charles Manson family, the murder was just… They just had a basic disregard for human life, and the murder was a consequence of operating in the drug underworld.
But it doesn’t seem like the murder or the creepy crawling was the… Well, creepy crawling maybe. But it doesn’t seem like the murder… Like some of the other people you’ve covered like the Zodiac Killer, the murder is the goal. Maybe there’s some psychopathic artistry to the murder that the Zodiac Killer had and the messaging behind that. But it seems like, at least the way you’re describing it with the Charles Manson family, the murder was just… They just had a basic disregard for human life, and the murder was a consequence of operating in the drug underworld.
Rick Spence
So Manson set up a base, I think called the Spahn Movie Ranch, which was an old movie ranch out on the northwest edge of LA, and they just camped out there. He used the girls, in particular, “Squeaky” Fromme to get the owner or operator, George Spahn to let them hang out there. Basically, she slept with him, and he was perfectly happy to let them hang out. They also had a place out in the desert that they had. They dealt in credit card fraud, stolen cars. It was a chop shop that they ran out of the place. So he had a fairly good little criminal gig going, which with the protection he had probably would’ve… The one thing they couldn’t cover him on was murder.
So Manson set up a base, I think called the Spahn Movie Ranch, which was an old movie ranch out on the northwest edge of LA, and they just camped out there. He used the girls, in particular, “Squeaky” Fromme to get the owner or operator, George Spahn to let them hang out there. Basically, she slept with him, and he was perfectly happy to let them hang out. They also had a place out in the desert that they had. They dealt in credit card fraud, stolen cars. It was a chop shop that they ran out of the place. So he had a fairly good little criminal gig going, which with the protection he had probably would’ve… The one thing they couldn’t cover him on was murder.
Lex Fridman
So you think if he was an informer, you think there was still a connection between DEA, FBI, CIA, whatever with him throughout this until he committed murder?
So you think if he was an informer, you think there was still a connection between DEA, FBI, CIA, whatever with him throughout this until he committed murder?
Rick Spence
Well, the real question is… There is a book written on this by Tom O’Neill called Chaos. I’m not necessarily saying it’s the easiest thing to get through. There’s a lot of material there. I don’t think O’Neill necessarily knows what to make of some of the stuff he came up with, but he does a very good job of demolishing the whole Bugliosi narrative. One of the people he mentions is a name that I had run into elsewhere, and so I really paid attention to it when I saw it again. And the name is Reeve Whitson. Reeve Whitson shows up on the fringes, even though he has no judicial function. He hangs around Bugliosi in the prosecution. He’s just there. In the same way that he was one of these guys… He grew his hair long, wore bell-bottoms, hung around the music community and elsewhere in Hollywood, but no one could tell you exactly what he did. I know what he did later. A decade later, he shows up as a CIA officer in Central America.
Well, the real question is… There is a book written on this by Tom O’Neill called Chaos. I’m not necessarily saying it’s the easiest thing to get through. There’s a lot of material there. I don’t think O’Neill necessarily knows what to make of some of the stuff he came up with, but he does a very good job of demolishing the whole Bugliosi narrative. One of the people he mentions is a name that I had run into elsewhere, and so I really paid attention to it when I saw it again. And the name is Reeve Whitson. Reeve Whitson shows up on the fringes, even though he has no judicial function. He hangs around Bugliosi in the prosecution. He’s just there. In the same way that he was one of these guys… He grew his hair long, wore bell-bottoms, hung around the music community and elsewhere in Hollywood, but no one could tell you exactly what he did. I know what he did later. A decade later, he shows up as a CIA officer in Central America.
So Reeve Whitson, later in his career at least, is CIA. What was he in 1969? What is he doing in this? The other thing about it is he appears to have been the person who called… There’s a little question of when the bodies at Cielo Drive are discovered. So the general story is that Sharon Tate’s housekeeper shows up around 8:30 in the morning, finds the bloody scene and goes screaming next door. But there was another fellow who knew… I think the owner of the house is a photographer. Last name may be Hatami. He gets a call earlier in the morning saying that there’d been murders there, and the person he recalls calling him is Reeve Whitson. So someone had been at the house before the bodies were discovered, and they had not called the police. So I don’t know what’s going on there, but it’s a curious situation.
And Manson in a lot of ways, self-immolates himself. I mean, his behavior at the trial is bizarre. It’s threatening, it’s disruptive. He’s got his girls out on the street carving X’s in their forehead, carrying knives. One of the attorneys, initially, his attorney, Ron Hughes, becomes Van Houten’s attorney. And he figures out that the three girls, supposedly on Charlie’s insistence, are going to confess. They’ll confess that it was all their idea and Charlie had nothing to do with it. Hughes doesn’t like this because his defense for her is that she was under his influence and therefore not responsible for her own actions. He was having psychic control, so he refuses to go along with it. There’s a break in the trial. He goes camping up in the mountains with some friends, disappears during a rainstorm, and then some months later, his decomposed remains are found.
Rumors, always the rumors. What would history be without rumors? Members of the family, they were off at Ron Hughes because he messed up Charlie’s idea to get him off and so they killed him. Maybe they did. Maybe he drowned. That’s absolutely impossible to say. You’ve got that story. There’s a guy named Juan Flynn, who was an employee at the Spahn Ranch, didn’t like Manson, held Manson responsible for the murder of his boss. He would testify that Manson told him that he had ordered all the killings, and that Manson also admitted that he had killed 35 people. Maybe he did. On the other hand, Juan Flynn didn’t like him, and other than his word had no real proof of what he was saying.
So please understand me in this case, is that unlike some people who argue that Charles Manson got a raw deal, I don’t think that’s the case. I think that he influenced tremendous influence over the people there through drugs. Sex was another frequent component in it. He had a real whammy over a lot of these people’s minds. I’m not sure how. That still puzzles me. He was a scrawny guy and he wasn’t physically intimidating. I mean, even a lot of women wouldn’t be physically intimidated by him. But he nevertheless had this real psychological power. And if you look around him, the male followers he had were fairly big guys. So he could get people to do what he wanted. And again, to me, the simplest explanation for this is that it began with the Hinman killing, and probably on Manson’s instigation the others were copycat killings to throw off what was going on. If I was a cop, that’s what I would focus on because that seems to make the most sense.
Lex Fridman
It still is fascinating that he’s able to have that much psychological control over those people without having a very clear ideology. So, it’s a cult.
It still is fascinating that he’s able to have that much psychological control over those people without having a very clear ideology. So, it’s a cult.
Rick Spence
Yes. The great focus on Charlie, the leader. The excessive devotion.
Yes. The great focus on Charlie, the leader. The excessive devotion.
Lex Fridman
But there’s not an ideology behind that, like something like Scientology or some kind of religious or some kind of… I don’t know, utopian ideology. Nothing like this?
But there’s not an ideology behind that, like something like Scientology or some kind of religious or some kind of… I don’t know, utopian ideology. Nothing like this?
Rick Spence
No. I think that Madison, again, was essentially a criminal. He had a sociopathic mindset, and he hit upon a pretty good deal.
No. I think that Madison, again, was essentially a criminal. He had a sociopathic mindset, and he hit upon a pretty good deal.
Lex Fridman
But how do people convince anybody of anything? With a cult, usually you have either an ideology or you have maybe personal relations, like you said, sex and drugs. But underneath that, can you really keep people with sex and drugs? You have to convince them that you love them in some deep sense. There’s a commune of love.
But how do people convince anybody of anything? With a cult, usually you have either an ideology or you have maybe personal relations, like you said, sex and drugs. But underneath that, can you really keep people with sex and drugs? You have to convince them that you love them in some deep sense. There’s a commune of love.
Rick Spence
You have a lot of people there in the cult. They have some sort of, what we like to call dysfunctional families. A lot of the females in particular seem to have come from more or less middle-class families, but those are full of dysfunction. Their parents didn’t love them. They were semi-runaways. And now they had this whole family. A lot of the younger women had children, some of them by Manson, some of them by the others. They bonded together.
You have a lot of people there in the cult. They have some sort of, what we like to call dysfunctional families. A lot of the females in particular seem to have come from more or less middle-class families, but those are full of dysfunction. Their parents didn’t love them. They were semi-runaways. And now they had this whole family. A lot of the younger women had children, some of them by Manson, some of them by the others. They bonded together.
Zodiac Killer
Lex Fridman
And again, we return to that pull towards belonging that gets us humans into trouble. So it does seem that there was a few crimes around this time. So, the Zodiac Killer.
And again, we return to that pull towards belonging that gets us humans into trouble. So it does seem that there was a few crimes around this time. So, the Zodiac Killer.
Rick Spence
Well, California, where I’m from… I remember this period vividly. By the way, the Tate LaBianca killings occurred on my birthday, the year I graduated from high school. So I remember this.
Well, California, where I’m from… I remember this period vividly. By the way, the Tate LaBianca killings occurred on my birthday, the year I graduated from high school. So I remember this.
Lex Fridman
Happy birthday.
Happy birthday.
Rick Spence
A term which has been used for that… There’s a writer by the name of Todd Wood who’s [inaudible 02:54:34]… I wish I’d come up with this. Killerfornia. Which is a chronicle of these serial killers and disappearances in the late sixties and seventies. So you’ve got the Zodiac, you’ve got other ones. I mean, I hate to say it, I’m not trying to be flippant about it, but I mean, young female hitchhikers were disappearing at an alarming rate in Northern California. There are bodies that have never been attributed. Some think that they’re-
A term which has been used for that… There’s a writer by the name of Todd Wood who’s [inaudible 02:54:34]… I wish I’d come up with this. Killerfornia. Which is a chronicle of these serial killers and disappearances in the late sixties and seventies. So you’ve got the Zodiac, you’ve got other ones. I mean, I hate to say it, I’m not trying to be flippant about it, but I mean, young female hitchhikers were disappearing at an alarming rate in Northern California. There are bodies that have never been attributed. Some think that they’re-
Rick Spence
That have never been attributed. Some think that they’re the Zodiac’s victims, but it was a dangerous time. Edmund Kemper, the co-ed killer was another one. There were a lot of creepy psychopaths running around. I don’t know whether it was something in the water or what was going on, but it was a menacing in some cases. Hitchhiking, especially if you were alone and female, was not something you wanted to do in much of the Golden State, certainly not up around the Bay Area. So a lot of these strange killings that were going on, the Zodiac, it’s one of those things where you have these people who have theories about it, and if you don’t share their theory, then you’re part of the problem in some form or another. So I’m not sure, for instance, that the Zodiac killings were all committed by the same person. I think there might’ve been multiple people involved.
That have never been attributed. Some think that they’re the Zodiac’s victims, but it was a dangerous time. Edmund Kemper, the co-ed killer was another one. There were a lot of creepy psychopaths running around. I don’t know whether it was something in the water or what was going on, but it was a menacing in some cases. Hitchhiking, especially if you were alone and female, was not something you wanted to do in much of the Golden State, certainly not up around the Bay Area. So a lot of these strange killings that were going on, the Zodiac, it’s one of those things where you have these people who have theories about it, and if you don’t share their theory, then you’re part of the problem in some form or another. So I’m not sure, for instance, that the Zodiac killings were all committed by the same person. I think there might’ve been multiple people involved.
And the first killings are all of couples. It’s very clear that they… I remember in my examination of it, one of the things I was looking at specific, what else is there to say about this zodiac killings? What I was going to look at is that there are all of these accusations that there was an occult aspect to it, that there was some sort of ritualistic aspect. So I looked at different things, locations, victims, phases of the moon. That’s always worth looking at. I didn’t find much correspondence in any of those. In one of the killings, I think the one in Lake Berryessa, he does appear in this kind of weird hooded costume. He’s got his symbol that sort of compass or aiming reticle circle with a cross through it. It can mean a variety of things. He used guns and he used knives, but he certainly had to think for couples. Except in the last of the killings, which is of a cab driver in downtown San Francisco, who he shoots in full view of witnesses, which is completely atypical.
Lex Fridman
And also when he was stabbing the victims, it doesn’t seem like he was very good at it. Or if the goal was to kill them, he wasn’t very good at it because some of them survived.
And also when he was stabbing the victims, it doesn’t seem like he was very good at it. Or if the goal was to kill them, he wasn’t very good at it because some of them survived.
Rick Spence
Yeah, he’s not particularly thorough about it. He seems to have had much more…. More of the violence seems to be directed at the females than the males.
Yeah, he’s not particularly thorough about it. He seems to have had much more…. More of the violence seems to be directed at the females than the males.
Lex Fridman
So I mean, there’s a couple of questions to ask here. First of all, did people see his face?
So I mean, there’s a couple of questions to ask here. First of all, did people see his face?
Rick Spence
There is a composite drawing of his face, which I think is based upon the Stine killing, the cab driver killing, where there were people who saw him or who claimed that they saw him. The other ones were all when it was fairly dark. I’m not sure that anyone else got a look at his face. The one that occurred in the daylight at Berryessa, he was wearing a mask. So there’s something in common initially in the targeting of victims, which doesn’t in the last case. Then after that, there’s just these different cases of where there’s a pretty good case to be made. A woman who claims, I think she and a small child were picked up. Her car broke down, she got a flat tire, and she was picked up by this guy who she got a very sort of strange vibe from who eventually just let her go. Well, that might’ve been the Zodiac. It might not have been.
There is a composite drawing of his face, which I think is based upon the Stine killing, the cab driver killing, where there were people who saw him or who claimed that they saw him. The other ones were all when it was fairly dark. I’m not sure that anyone else got a look at his face. The one that occurred in the daylight at Berryessa, he was wearing a mask. So there’s something in common initially in the targeting of victims, which doesn’t in the last case. Then after that, there’s just these different cases of where there’s a pretty good case to be made. A woman who claims, I think she and a small child were picked up. Her car broke down, she got a flat tire, and she was picked up by this guy who she got a very sort of strange vibe from who eventually just let her go. Well, that might’ve been the Zodiac. It might not have been.
Lex Fridman
You do this kind of rigorous look saying like, okay, what is the actual facts that we know? Reduce it to the thing that we know for sure. And in speaking about his motivation, he said that he was collecting souls.
You do this kind of rigorous look saying like, okay, what is the actual facts that we know? Reduce it to the thing that we know for sure. And in speaking about his motivation, he said that he was collecting souls.
Rick Spence
Souls for the afterlife.
Souls for the afterlife.
Lex Fridman
For the afterlife.
For the afterlife.
Rick Spence
That’s kind of a cultie.
That’s kind of a cultie.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean that’s what I believe. Is it the Vikings or the Romans? They believed this in battle.
Yeah, I mean that’s what I believe. Is it the Vikings or the Romans? They believed this in battle.
Rick Spence
You’re essentially making sacrificial victims, and they will be your ghostly servants in the afterlife.
You’re essentially making sacrificial victims, and they will be your ghostly servants in the afterlife.
Lex Fridman
Do you think he actually believed that?
Do you think he actually believed that?
Rick Spence
Who knows? I mean, here’s the question. Was he making that up just to be scary or is that what his actual? That’s what he’s saying his motivation is. So let’s take him at face value rather than trying to wish that into the cornfield to get rid of it. Let’s just take it at face. So he’s claiming that he’s killing these people in order to acquire slave servants in the afterlife. He will subsequently go on to claim many more victims, I’m not sure, 44 eventually he will have before he just kind of vanishes. One of the really interesting clues to me when I was looking at that case, which I didn’t find anybody else that tended to make much of it, is that it all has to do with this kind of Halloween card that he sends to the press in San Francisco. And it’s talking about sort of rope by gun by fire, and there’s this whole sort of wheel, like the zodiacs. But what this is drawn from, where he got this from is from a Tim Holt Western comic book published in 1951, and you see the same thing in the cover.
Who knows? I mean, here’s the question. Was he making that up just to be scary or is that what his actual? That’s what he’s saying his motivation is. So let’s take him at face value rather than trying to wish that into the cornfield to get rid of it. Let’s just take it at face. So he’s claiming that he’s killing these people in order to acquire slave servants in the afterlife. He will subsequently go on to claim many more victims, I’m not sure, 44 eventually he will have before he just kind of vanishes. One of the really interesting clues to me when I was looking at that case, which I didn’t find anybody else that tended to make much of it, is that it all has to do with this kind of Halloween card that he sends to the press in San Francisco. And it’s talking about sort of rope by gun by fire, and there’s this whole sort of wheel, like the zodiacs. But what this is drawn from, where he got this from is from a Tim Holt Western comic book published in 1951, and you see the same thing in the cover.
It’s Wheel of Fortune, but with different forms of grisly death on it. And all of the things that he mentioned are shown on the cover of this. So whoever put together that card saw that comic book. Well, that’s kind of an interesting clue. So does that mean he’s a comic book collector? When would he have… I mean, that one and also where he got the idea from, and so he’s incorporating these things from. Then there are of course his codes, which people have, which aren’t all that difficult to decipher probably because they weren’t meant to be. The other thing that you find often with serial or psychopathic killers is they’re toying with the press. I mean, this goes all the way back to Jack the Ripper. They get attention, and then he just disappears.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think he was never caught?
Why do you think he was never caught?
Rick Spence
I don’t think they knew who to look for. There was nothing much to go on. There was a guy who was long a suspect, and then eventually they tested his DNA and find it didn’t match any of the things that they’d found. Again, it goes back to, I’m not even sure that it’s one person who’s responsible for all of them.
I don’t think they knew who to look for. There was nothing much to go on. There was a guy who was long a suspect, and then eventually they tested his DNA and find it didn’t match any of the things that they’d found. Again, it goes back to, I’m not even sure that it’s one person who’s responsible for all of them.
Lex Fridman
So one of the interesting things you bring up here and our discussion of Manson inspires this, but there does seem to be a connection, a shared inspiration between several killers here, the Zodiac, the Son of Sam later, and the monster of Florence. So is it possible there’s some kind of underworld that is connecting these people?
So one of the interesting things you bring up here and our discussion of Manson inspires this, but there does seem to be a connection, a shared inspiration between several killers here, the Zodiac, the Son of Sam later, and the monster of Florence. So is it possible there’s some kind of underworld that is connecting these people?
Rick Spence
Well, take the Zodiac and you get his claim that he’s collecting souls for the afterlife. There are other things that are occult-ish connected to that. He may have picked some of the killing sites due to their physical location, to their position in a particular place. If you look at the Son of Sam case, of course, David Berkowitz will on and off claim that he was part of a Satanic cult that was carrying out, again, these killings mostly of couples and young women similar to the Zodiac, and that he had only committed some of them and was witnesses to others. And that has really created the whole idea that yes, there is this some kind of Satanic cult, which engages in ritual murders. Then if you go all the way to Florence, you’ve got murders who go on and off for a long period of time. Again, focusing on couples in isolated areas, which Italian prosecutors ultimately tried to connect to some kind of satanic cult, although I’m not sure they ever made a particularly strong case for that. But that element comes up in all three of them. So you can with a little imagination, argue that those similarities, that those things should come up in each of those cases in different places, either suggest that oddly enough, psychopathic criminals all sort of thinking the same way, or that there is some sort of higher element involved in this, that there’s some kind of common inspiration. Here you come back to something similar we were talking before about, do pedophiles exist? Okay, so do satanic cults exist? Well, they do. Okay. There was one in my hometown, apparently quite harmless as far as I know, never did anything. But there are people who robes. Here we come again, robes, cut the head off a chicken, naked woman as an altar. You can get off on that I suppose, if that’s your thing. So professed satanists exist, satanic cults exist, serial killers exist, ritual murders exist. Are those things necessarily connected? No. Could they be connected? Yes. There’s nothing. Don’t ever tell me that something is just too crazy for people to do because that’s crazy talk.
Well, take the Zodiac and you get his claim that he’s collecting souls for the afterlife. There are other things that are occult-ish connected to that. He may have picked some of the killing sites due to their physical location, to their position in a particular place. If you look at the Son of Sam case, of course, David Berkowitz will on and off claim that he was part of a Satanic cult that was carrying out, again, these killings mostly of couples and young women similar to the Zodiac, and that he had only committed some of them and was witnesses to others. And that has really created the whole idea that yes, there is this some kind of Satanic cult, which engages in ritual murders. Then if you go all the way to Florence, you’ve got murders who go on and off for a long period of time. Again, focusing on couples in isolated areas, which Italian prosecutors ultimately tried to connect to some kind of satanic cult, although I’m not sure they ever made a particularly strong case for that. But that element comes up in all three of them. So you can with a little imagination, argue that those similarities, that those things should come up in each of those cases in different places, either suggest that oddly enough, psychopathic criminals all sort of thinking the same way, or that there is some sort of higher element involved in this, that there’s some kind of common inspiration. Here you come back to something similar we were talking before about, do pedophiles exist? Okay, so do satanic cults exist? Well, they do. Okay. There was one in my hometown, apparently quite harmless as far as I know, never did anything. But there are people who robes. Here we come again, robes, cut the head off a chicken, naked woman as an altar. You can get off on that I suppose, if that’s your thing. So professed satanists exist, satanic cults exist, serial killers exist, ritual murders exist. Are those things necessarily connected? No. Could they be connected? Yes. There’s nothing. Don’t ever tell me that something is just too crazy for people to do because that’s crazy talk.
Illuminati
Lex Fridman
You’ve studied secret societies. You gave a lot of amazing lectures on secret societies. It’s fascinating to look at human history through the lens of secret societies because they’ve permeated all of human history. You’ve talked about from everything from the Knights Templar to Illuminati, Freemasons, like we brought up. Freemasons lasted a long time. Illuminati, you’ve talked about in its sort of main form, lasted a short time, but its legend.
You’ve studied secret societies. You gave a lot of amazing lectures on secret societies. It’s fascinating to look at human history through the lens of secret societies because they’ve permeated all of human history. You’ve talked about from everything from the Knights Templar to Illuminati, Freemasons, like we brought up. Freemasons lasted a long time. Illuminati, you’ve talked about in its sort of main form, lasted a short time, but its legend.
Rick Spence
Never gone away.
Never gone away.
Lex Fridman
Never gone away. So maybe Illuminati is a really interesting one. What was that?
Never gone away. So maybe Illuminati is a really interesting one. What was that?
Rick Spence
Well, the Illuminati that we know started in the 1776. In fact, you can pin it down to a day, the 1st of May, May Day, 1776 in Ingolstadt, Germany, founded by a professor Adam Weishaupt. It wasn’t initially called the Illuminati because that’s not really the name of the organization. It was called the Order Perfectibilists. Apparently that changed. Weishaupt would say things like never let our organization be known under its real name anywhere, which leaves wondering what’s its real name. So Illuminati is simply the plural of Illuminatus, which means one who is illuminated, one who has seen the light. So in Roman times, Christian converts were Illuminati because they had seen the light, anyone who thinks. And there have been organizations called Illuminati. The term is not trademarked, not copyrighted. Anybody who thinks they’ve seen the light about anything is an Illuminati. So it defines nothing.
Well, the Illuminati that we know started in the 1776. In fact, you can pin it down to a day, the 1st of May, May Day, 1776 in Ingolstadt, Germany, founded by a professor Adam Weishaupt. It wasn’t initially called the Illuminati because that’s not really the name of the organization. It was called the Order Perfectibilists. Apparently that changed. Weishaupt would say things like never let our organization be known under its real name anywhere, which leaves wondering what’s its real name. So Illuminati is simply the plural of Illuminatus, which means one who is illuminated, one who has seen the light. So in Roman times, Christian converts were Illuminati because they had seen the light, anyone who thinks. And there have been organizations called Illuminati. The term is not trademarked, not copyrighted. Anybody who thinks they’ve seen the light about anything is an Illuminati. So it defines nothing.
The symbol of the order was an owl, which interestingly enough is almost identical to the owl which is the emblem of the Bohemian Club.
Lex Fridman
Oh, boy.
Oh, boy.
Rick Spence
Make of that what you will. I don’t make that much out of it because one owl looks pretty much like another owl to me. But compare them, you got to kind of wonder about, there’s a little, just a little thing. Maybe there’s some kind of connection there. But that supposedly has to do with the connection to the goddess Minerva and the owl was sacred to her and the order was the Minerva of all, the person who was brought in. The number of levels changed over time. There was a higher level, so the order that people at the lower level didn’t know about, pretty typical for this. But the thing about Weishaupt was that he was a luminous correspondent with members with his Illuminati, both during the time that it legally existed in Bavaria and later on.
Make of that what you will. I don’t make that much out of it because one owl looks pretty much like another owl to me. But compare them, you got to kind of wonder about, there’s a little, just a little thing. Maybe there’s some kind of connection there. But that supposedly has to do with the connection to the goddess Minerva and the owl was sacred to her and the order was the Minerva of all, the person who was brought in. The number of levels changed over time. There was a higher level, so the order that people at the lower level didn’t know about, pretty typical for this. But the thing about Weishaupt was that he was a luminous correspondent with members with his Illuminati, both during the time that it legally existed in Bavaria and later on.
So Weishaupt himself lives, I think until 1830, dies in Gotha, which was ruled by an Illuminati prince. And so nothing ever happens to these. No Illuminati is ever put to death or arrested in prison for any period of time. What happens is that their plan… Well, what was his plan? His plan was to essentially replace all existing religions and governments in the world with a one world order governed by the Illuminati. So to do this, you had to subvert and destroy all the existing order. And he argued the purpose for this is we wish to make men happy and free, but first we must make them good.
Lex Fridman
Oh, right.
Oh, right.
Rick Spence
So that’s what the order is all about. Of course, he also said things like, oh man, is there nothing that you won’t believe? So myth would be used in that. Also thought women should be brought into it. He had a rather interesting view about that was that we should appeal to women in part because women have a chip on their shoulder because they’re left out of things. So we should appeal to their vanity on that point and offer that in the future, all things will be open and they will be emancipated. So we should hold out the prospect of female emancipation to attract them because he argued in the short term, there’s no better way to influence men than through women. Get women on our side by promising them emancipation, but made sure we’ll never actually deliver it to them because the future world will be a boys club.
So that’s what the order is all about. Of course, he also said things like, oh man, is there nothing that you won’t believe? So myth would be used in that. Also thought women should be brought into it. He had a rather interesting view about that was that we should appeal to women in part because women have a chip on their shoulder because they’re left out of things. So we should appeal to their vanity on that point and offer that in the future, all things will be open and they will be emancipated. So we should hold out the prospect of female emancipation to attract them because he argued in the short term, there’s no better way to influence men than through women. Get women on our side by promising them emancipation, but made sure we’ll never actually deliver it to them because the future world will be a boys club.
So he talks about these things fairly openly, and this is where you get this idea of some sort of a new world order, which is to be based upon the destruction of the existing order. So there are those who argue that there is a trail of descent that leads from Weishaupt’s Illuminati to the Communist manifesto, and in fact, communism itself, that Marxism was simply a further restating of this idea. And you can draw some sort of, I mean, the idea never entirely goes away. The Bavarian government gets a hold of the order’s, inner texts. So the story is they’re delivered to them. I think that Weishaupt gave them to him. I think he engineered the exposure of his order because it gave him publicity. By being exposed in Bavaria, you gained great renown. And they continued to recruit after this, and the Bavarian government actually bans the Illuminati four different times. Why? Because apparently the first three times didn’t work. So the fourth one does. You can notice that it’s like Papal bans on Freemasonry. They just go on and on and on because this clearly isn’t working.
Lex Fridman
And you actually highlight, speaking of publicity, that there’s a difference between visibility and transparency. That a secret society could be visible, it could be known about, it could be quite popular, but you could still have a secrecy within it.
And you actually highlight, speaking of publicity, that there’s a difference between visibility and transparency. That a secret society could be visible, it could be known about, it could be quite popular, but you could still have a secrecy within it.
Rick Spence
You have no idea what’s going on inside. It’s like a black box. If I set a black box on this table, we can see that there is a black box. What’s in the black box? A cat? Who knows?
You have no idea what’s going on inside. It’s like a black box. If I set a black box on this table, we can see that there is a black box. What’s in the black box? A cat? Who knows?
Lex Fridman
In fact, the secrecy might be the very thing that makes it even more popular.
In fact, the secrecy might be the very thing that makes it even more popular.
Rick Spence
Adam Weishaupt, again, there is no more convincing than a concealed mystery. Give people a concealed mystery in the thought. So we need to make the order mysterious for that exact reason. Always hold out the possibility that knowledge, special knowledge that no mere mortals have other than you will have in that way. So he senses a lot of things, the use of vanity and ego to recruit people to influence both men and women, it’s quite sophisticated and as you might expect from a professor of canon law trained by Jesuits. So I certainly don’t think that it ceased when it was banned in Bavaria because everybody just scatters and goes elsewhere like Paris. And then you have the French Revolution.
Adam Weishaupt, again, there is no more convincing than a concealed mystery. Give people a concealed mystery in the thought. So we need to make the order mysterious for that exact reason. Always hold out the possibility that knowledge, special knowledge that no mere mortals have other than you will have in that way. So he senses a lot of things, the use of vanity and ego to recruit people to influence both men and women, it’s quite sophisticated and as you might expect from a professor of canon law trained by Jesuits. So I certainly don’t think that it ceased when it was banned in Bavaria because everybody just scatters and goes elsewhere like Paris. And then you have the French Revolution.
Secret societies
Lex Fridman
So the idea of the Illuminati to put it crudely, the branding is a really powerful one. And so it makes sense that there’s a thread connecting it to this day that a lot of organizations, a lot of secret societies can adopt the branding.
So the idea of the Illuminati to put it crudely, the branding is a really powerful one. And so it makes sense that there’s a thread connecting it to this day that a lot of organizations, a lot of secret societies can adopt the branding.
Rick Spence
Anybody can call it. You can go out and form a club, and call it the Illuminati.
Anybody can call it. You can go out and form a club, and call it the Illuminati.
Lex Fridman
And if you are effective at it, I think it does attract. It’s the chicken or the egg. But powerful people tend to have gigantic egos, and people with gigantic egos tend to like the exclusivity of secret societies. And so it’s a gravitational force that pulls powerful people to these societies. It’s exclusive.
And if you are effective at it, I think it does attract. It’s the chicken or the egg. But powerful people tend to have gigantic egos, and people with gigantic egos tend to like the exclusivity of secret societies. And so it’s a gravitational force that pulls powerful people to these societies. It’s exclusive.
Rick Spence
Only certain. And you also notice something goes back to when we were talking about much earlier when we were talking about intelligence. Remember MEIS? Ego.
Only certain. And you also notice something goes back to when we were talking about much earlier when we were talking about intelligence. Remember MEIS? Ego.
Lex Fridman
Ego, yeah.
Ego, yeah.
Rick Spence
Ease of recruitment and control. That’s a great Achilles heel in human beings, the exploitation of ego.
Ease of recruitment and control. That’s a great Achilles heel in human beings, the exploitation of ego.
Lex Fridman
And of course, if we go back to the conversation of intelligence agencies, it would be very efficient and beneficial for intelligence agencies to infiltrate the secret societies because that’s where the powerful people are.
And of course, if we go back to the conversation of intelligence agencies, it would be very efficient and beneficial for intelligence agencies to infiltrate the secret societies because that’s where the powerful people are.
Rick Spence
Or the secret societies to infiltrate the intelligence agencies.
Or the secret societies to infiltrate the intelligence agencies.
Lex Fridman
Oh boy. Well, I mean that’s actually in all the lectures, I kind of had a sense that intelligence agencies themselves are kind of secret societies, right?
Oh boy. Well, I mean that’s actually in all the lectures, I kind of had a sense that intelligence agencies themselves are kind of secret societies, right?
Rick Spence
Well, I’ll give you my definition of secret societies, what they come down to. One is that generally their existence isn’t secret. It’s what they do is secret. It’s what’s in the box as opposed to the existence of the box. So one of the most important criteria is that they are self-selecting. You just don’t join. They pick you. They decide whether or not you’re going to, they admit you. And oftentimes they will sort of recruit you. Once you have been recruited, you have to pass tests and initiations, and you also have to swear oaths of loyalty. Those are always very, very critical. So broadly speaking, what the entrance into an intelligence organization does, they decide whether you get in. You just don’t automatically get the job. You have to pass tests, a lie detector test, for instance, field training tests, a whole variety of tests. And then you’re sworn to secrecy. You never talk about what you do ever. Or there will be dire consequences.
Well, I’ll give you my definition of secret societies, what they come down to. One is that generally their existence isn’t secret. It’s what they do is secret. It’s what’s in the box as opposed to the existence of the box. So one of the most important criteria is that they are self-selecting. You just don’t join. They pick you. They decide whether or not you’re going to, they admit you. And oftentimes they will sort of recruit you. Once you have been recruited, you have to pass tests and initiations, and you also have to swear oaths of loyalty. Those are always very, very critical. So broadly speaking, what the entrance into an intelligence organization does, they decide whether you get in. You just don’t automatically get the job. You have to pass tests, a lie detector test, for instance, field training tests, a whole variety of tests. And then you’re sworn to secrecy. You never talk about what you do ever. Or there will be dire consequences.
So the method is very much the same. And also this idea of creating a kind of insular group. The organization is us, and everyone else is outside of that. We are guardians of special knowledge. See, this is the type of thing that would generally happen if you question whatever any kind of intelligence agency did. Well, we know things that you don’t. Why? Because we’re the organization that knows things. We collect information, we know the secrets, we guard the secrets. Therefore, if we tell you, you must believe us.
Lex Fridman
I have this sense that there are very powerful secret societies operating today, and we don’t really know or understand them. And the conspiracy theories in spirit might have something to them but are actually factually not correct. So an effective, powerful secret society or intelligence agency is not going to let you know anything that it doesn’t want you to know, right?
I have this sense that there are very powerful secret societies operating today, and we don’t really know or understand them. And the conspiracy theories in spirit might have something to them but are actually factually not correct. So an effective, powerful secret society or intelligence agency is not going to let you know anything that it doesn’t want you to know, right?
Rick Spence
They’ll probably mislead you if you get too close. So I think the question is what’s the most powerful or important secret society? Probably the one you don’t know about, one that doesn’t advertise its existence, the one which is never known anywhere under its real name. You’ve got things like the Bohemian Club, you’ve got the Bilderbergers, which is another formed in the 1950s, largely the creation of a guy by the name of Josef Retinger, Polish, mysterious, appears out of who knows where, a schemer for years, a man expelled from Britain, France and the United States at one point or another, long active in the Mexican labor movement. Retinger is a mysterious figure. In fact, I think there was even a book written about him called Eminence Grise, Grey Eminence. The fellow who was the front man for the Bilderbergers was Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands, who was at one point a Nazi and then a Dutch freedom fighter.
They’ll probably mislead you if you get too close. So I think the question is what’s the most powerful or important secret society? Probably the one you don’t know about, one that doesn’t advertise its existence, the one which is never known anywhere under its real name. You’ve got things like the Bohemian Club, you’ve got the Bilderbergers, which is another formed in the 1950s, largely the creation of a guy by the name of Josef Retinger, Polish, mysterious, appears out of who knows where, a schemer for years, a man expelled from Britain, France and the United States at one point or another, long active in the Mexican labor movement. Retinger is a mysterious figure. In fact, I think there was even a book written about him called Eminence Grise, Grey Eminence. The fellow who was the front man for the Bilderbergers was Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands, who was at one point a Nazi and then a Dutch freedom fighter.
All right, take your pick. But Retinger is the moving hand behind the whole thing, and I’ll be damned if I can figure out who Retinger is. So the idea is that, well, you get like influential people in media, business, politics, and you bring them together just to talk, to try to find common answers or common questions. It’s all very much sort of Western Anglo-European. It’s all very closely sort of connected to NATO, the whole concept of a kind of Atlanticist world, which is essentially the Anglo-American combine combined with Western Europe. But you got a bunch of these things. I mean, the Council on Foreign Relations is very similar to that and the Bilderbergers, and there’s an overlap with the Bohemian Club. And then you’ve got the Pinay Cercle or Le Cercle, which is more military, but also linked to the so-called secret Gladio. The idea of the Soviets over around Western Europe, there would be a stay behind organization called Gladio. There’d be these freedom fighters.
So the question I have about that is that how many secret organizations do you need? I mean, why all these separate groups which often seem to have the same people into them?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. The closer I look, the more I wonder the same question we asked about the Russian intelligence agencies is where’s the center of power? It seems to be very hard to figure out. Does the secrecy scare you?
Yeah. The closer I look, the more I wonder the same question we asked about the Russian intelligence agencies is where’s the center of power? It seems to be very hard to figure out. Does the secrecy scare you?
Rick Spence
Well, I guess on one level I’m comforted that there’s somebody actually making decisions as opposed to, I mean, what do you want? Do you want chaos or do you want everything kind of rigidly controlled? And I don’t put much stock in the idea that there actually is some small group of people running everything, because if they were, it would operate more efficiently. I do think that there are various disparate groups of people who think that they’re running things or try to, and that’s what concerns me more than anything else.
Well, I guess on one level I’m comforted that there’s somebody actually making decisions as opposed to, I mean, what do you want? Do you want chaos or do you want everything kind of rigidly controlled? And I don’t put much stock in the idea that there actually is some small group of people running everything, because if they were, it would operate more efficiently. I do think that there are various disparate groups of people who think that they’re running things or try to, and that’s what concerns me more than anything else.
Well, I hate to go back to them again because what you’re bringing up, you go back to the Nazis. They had their whole idea about a new world order, and they only had 12 years to do it. And look what a mess they made. I mean, look at the damage, the physical damage that can be done by an idea inspiring a relatively small group of people controlling a nation based upon some sort of racial or ideological fantasy that has no real basis in reality and yet guides their actions. It’s this differentiation that I always make. And I would try to get across to students between always be clear about what you know and what you believe. You don’t know many things.
You know your name, you know when you were born, you probably know who your father is, but that’s not absolute unless you’ve had a DNA test and only if you trust DNA tests. So you know who your mother is. You believe this man is your father. Why? Because your mother told you he was. So you believe things generally because someone has told you this is to be true, but you don’t really know for sure.
Well, because we know so little, we tend to go by beliefs. So we believe in this. We believe in that. You believe that your cult leader is the answer to everything. And it seems to be very, very easy to get people to believe things. And then what happens is that whether or not those beliefs have any real basis in reality, they begin to influence your actions. So here again, regrettably in some ways to bring it back to the Nazis, what were the Nazis convinced of? They were convinced that Jews were basically evil aliens. That’s what it comes down to. They weren’t really humans. There’s some sort of evil contamination which we must eradicate. And they set out to do that.
Lex Fridman
And they were sure that there’s just a few problems that can be solved. And once you solve them that you have this beautiful utopia where everything would be just perfect, it’d be great, and we can just get there. And I think it’s really strong belief in a global utopia. It just never goes right. It seems like impossible to know the truth in it.
And they were sure that there’s just a few problems that can be solved. And once you solve them that you have this beautiful utopia where everything would be just perfect, it’d be great, and we can just get there. And I think it’s really strong belief in a global utopia. It just never goes right. It seems like impossible to know the truth in it.
Rick Spence
For some reason, not long ago, I was listening on YouTube to old Wobbly songs, the Workers of the World. I don’t know why. I know there was a whole album of Wobbly songs, and there was one of them called Commonwealth of Toil. And like most of them, they’re sort of taken from gospel songs. And it’s talking about in the future how wonderful everything will be in the Commonwealth of Toil that will be. And now these are revolutionary leftists, in this case, Wobblies. But nonetheless, it’s like a prayer for communism everything. Now in the future, everything will be good because the earth will be shared by the toilers. And from each abilities and to each according to his need. And it’s this kind of sweet little song in some way. But I’m just sort of imagining this. If I was going to stage that, I’d have this choir of children singing it with a huge hammer and sickle behind them because that’s what it’s combining. And you can think that the sentiments that express in that song, which are legitimate in some way of all the horrors that then leads to.
For some reason, not long ago, I was listening on YouTube to old Wobbly songs, the Workers of the World. I don’t know why. I know there was a whole album of Wobbly songs, and there was one of them called Commonwealth of Toil. And like most of them, they’re sort of taken from gospel songs. And it’s talking about in the future how wonderful everything will be in the Commonwealth of Toil that will be. And now these are revolutionary leftists, in this case, Wobblies. But nonetheless, it’s like a prayer for communism everything. Now in the future, everything will be good because the earth will be shared by the toilers. And from each abilities and to each according to his need. And it’s this kind of sweet little song in some way. But I’m just sort of imagining this. If I was going to stage that, I’d have this choir of children singing it with a huge hammer and sickle behind them because that’s what it’s combining. And you can think that the sentiments that express in that song, which are legitimate in some way of all the horrors that then leads to.
Lex Fridman
It is fascinating about humans. A beautiful idea on paper, an innocent little idea about a utopian future can lead to so much suffering and so much destruction and the unintended consequences you see described.
It is fascinating about humans. A beautiful idea on paper, an innocent little idea about a utopian future can lead to so much suffering and so much destruction and the unintended consequences you see described.
Rick Spence
The law of unintended consequences.
The law of unintended consequences.
Lex Fridman
And we learn from it. I mean, that’s why history is important. We learn from it hopefully.
And we learn from it. I mean, that’s why history is important. We learn from it hopefully.
Rick Spence
Do we?
Do we?
Lex Fridman
Slowly or slow learn.
Slowly or slow learn.
Rick Spence
I’m unconvinced of that, but perhaps.
I’m unconvinced of that, but perhaps.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of unconvinced, what gives you hope? If human beings are still here, maybe expanding out into the cosmos 1000, 5,000, 10,000 years from now, what gives you hope about that future, about even being a possible future about it happening?
Speaking of unconvinced, what gives you hope? If human beings are still here, maybe expanding out into the cosmos 1000, 5,000, 10,000 years from now, what gives you hope about that future, about even being a possible future about it happening?
Rick Spence
Most people are cooperative and kind most of the time. And that’s one of those things that can usually be depended upon. And usually you’ll get back to what you put into it. Another thing that I have a weird fascination of watching are people who have meltdowns on airplanes because it’s just bizarre.
Most people are cooperative and kind most of the time. And that’s one of those things that can usually be depended upon. And usually you’ll get back to what you put into it. Another thing that I have a weird fascination of watching are people who have meltdowns on airplanes because it’s just bizarre.
Lex Fridman
That’s fascinating to watch.
That’s fascinating to watch.
Rick Spence
The people who will, there’s some sort of psychotic break that occurs, and it’s always going to end the same way. The cops are going to come on and drag you off the plane. Now. True, and you’re going to inconvenience everybody there. And usually at some point, they don’t care about that. That’s the one little sense of power that they have. So they have some sort of sense of powerlessness. And if their only way of power is just to piss off everybody else on that plane, they’re going to go ahead and do it even though it’s going to lead nowhere for them.
The people who will, there’s some sort of psychotic break that occurs, and it’s always going to end the same way. The cops are going to come on and drag you off the plane. Now. True, and you’re going to inconvenience everybody there. And usually at some point, they don’t care about that. That’s the one little sense of power that they have. So they have some sort of sense of powerlessness. And if their only way of power is just to piss off everybody else on that plane, they’re going to go ahead and do it even though it’s going to lead nowhere for them.
Lex Fridman
And there’s similar sometimes psychological behavior in traffic.
And there’s similar sometimes psychological behavior in traffic.
Rick Spence
Well, the road rage thing.
Well, the road rage thing.
Lex Fridman
The road rage, yeah. It’s fascinating.
The road rage, yeah. It’s fascinating.
Rick Spence
And I bet that most, there again, those are all people who up to some point were cooperative and kind and polite, and then they snap. So those are all part of the human makeup as well.
And I bet that most, there again, those are all people who up to some point were cooperative and kind and polite, and then they snap. So those are all part of the human makeup as well.
Lex Fridman
But also part of the human makeup, difference between humans and chimps is the ability to get together, cooperate on a mass scale over an idea, create things like the Roman Empire did. Laws that prevent us and protect us from crazy human behavior, manifestations of a man, some type of human.
But also part of the human makeup, difference between humans and chimps is the ability to get together, cooperate on a mass scale over an idea, create things like the Roman Empire did. Laws that prevent us and protect us from crazy human behavior, manifestations of a man, some type of human.
Rick Spence
Well, human beings are just weird animals all year round. It’s just completely peculiar. I’m not sure that we’re all together natural.
Well, human beings are just weird animals all year round. It’s just completely peculiar. I’m not sure that we’re all together natural.
Lex Fridman
But I think we are all together beautiful. There is something magical about humans, and I hope humans stay here even as we get advanced robots walking around everywhere. More and more intelligent robots that claim to have consciousness, that claim they love you, that increasingly take over our world. I hope this magical things that makes us human still persists.
But I think we are all together beautiful. There is something magical about humans, and I hope humans stay here even as we get advanced robots walking around everywhere. More and more intelligent robots that claim to have consciousness, that claim they love you, that increasingly take over our world. I hope this magical things that makes us human still persists.
Rick Spence
Well, let us hope so.
Well, let us hope so.
Lex Fridman
Rick, you’re an incredible person. You have so much fascinating work, and it’s really an awesome.
Rick, you’re an incredible person. You have so much fascinating work, and it’s really an awesome.
Rick Spence
I’ve never had anybody ask me as many interesting questions as you have.
I’ve never had anybody ask me as many interesting questions as you have.
Lex Fridman
Thank you so much.
Thank you so much.
Rick Spence
Or as many questions.
Or as many questions.
Lex Fridman
This was so fun. Thank you so much for talking today.
This was so fun. Thank you so much for talking today.
Rick Spence
Well, thank you.
Well, thank you.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Rick Spence. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you words from John F. Kennedy. “The very word secrecy is repugnant in a free and open society. And we are as a people, inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings. We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it.”
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Rick Spence. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you words from John F. Kennedy. “The very word secrecy is repugnant in a free and open society. And we are as a people, inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings. We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it.”
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.