This page provides estimates of Tesla vehicles delivered and Autopilot miles driven segmented by Autopilot hardware version, based on the following milestones:
- Sep-2014: Autopilot Hardware 1.0 installed (Autopilot not enabled).
- Oct-2015: Autopilot enabled.
- Oct-2016: Autopilot Hardware 2.0 released.
Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Hardware
The primary source for the data on vehicle deliveries are the quarterly letters. We scraped these to generate a quarterly estimates of Tesla vehicles delivered (by model) with minimal interpolation. You can download the CSV with this aggregated data here: tesla_vehicles.csv. The following is the plot showing the total number of delivered vehicles, segmented by Autopilot hardware.
Key observation: there are 825,970 Tesla vehicles delivered with Autopilot hardware 2/3.
Total and Autopilot Miles
NOTICE: The following mileage estimates use a rate calculated before and up to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. It is likely that the amount of total miles and autopilot miles will be drastically lower for the period of lockdown. These numbers will be recalculated once the economy is reopened and new mileage data comes in.
I describe how I got the estimates below, but before that, let’s look at the numbers. The following is a plot of total Autopilot miles and Autopilot miles on the first and second generation of Autopilot hardware. Key mileage estimates to-date are:
- Estimated Autopilot miles to-date: 3.3 billion miles
- Estimated miles in all Tesla vehicles: 22.5 billion miles
Details on Estimating Autopilot Miles
I started with the number of Tesla vehicles delivered by quarter and organized by Autopilot hardware version. Next, I did an estimate of per-day deliveries dating back to 2008 in a way that fits the quarterly reported delivery numbers. The resulting data can be downloaded here: tesla_vehicle_estimates_and_projections.csv.
Finally, I enumerated the number of miles driven in each vehicle under manual and Autopilot control. The resulting data can be downloaded here: tesla_autopilot_miles.csv. There are two notable periods that were accounted for:
- Hardware 1 production started (approximately) on 2014-10-01 but Autopilot was not enabled on that hardware until 2015-10-15. Source: Elon Musk tweet.
- Hardware 2 production started (approximately) on 2016-10-19 but Autopilot was not enabled on that hardware until 2017-01-21. Source: Elon Musk tweet.
The data points on mileage (overall and in Autopilot) came from various sources online as listed in the Sources section below. It all boils down to an estimate of miles traveled per vehicle per day (overall and in Autopilot). This estimate has remained stable over time as the number of vehicles and miles increased.
- Vehicle deliveries: Quarterly Investor Communication
- Autopilot usage rates: MIT Autonomous Vehicle Technology Study
- Total mileage data points:
- 2015-06-22 – 1 billion total – tesla website
- 2016-04-08 – 2 billion total – tesla twitter
- 2016-10-07 – 3 billion total – tesla twitter
- 2016-12-26 – 3.5 billion – electrek
- 2018-04-22 – 7.2 billion – electrek
- 2018-11-16 – 10 bilion – electrek
- Autopilot mileage data points:
- 2016-04-09 – 47 million – tesla twitter
- 2016-05-24 – 100 million – electrek
- 2016-10-07 – 222 million – elon musk twitter
- 2018-11-28 – 1 billion – tesla twitter
- 2020-02-26 – 3 billion – karpathy talk