Predictions for Epic Submission Only Tournament: Buchecha, Roger Gracie, Andre Galvao, Ryron Gracie

On October 14th, the world will get to witness seven epic battles at the Metamoris Pro Jiu Jitsu Invitational:

  • Roger Gracie vs Buchecha
  • Andre Galvao vs Ryron Gracie
  • Kron Gracie vs Otavio Sousa
  • Kayron Gracie vs Rafael Lovato Jr
  • Jeff Glover vs Caio Terra
  • Dean Lister vs “King” Kevin Casey
  • Jean Jacques Machado vs Nelson Monteiro

This will be a submission-only tournament (30 minute time limit I believe), and for jiu jitsu fans such as myself this event will be amazing no matter what. Old champion vs new champion, Gracie vs non-Gracie, American vs Brazilian, scrambler vs technician, etc. Like I said: this is epic.

So let’s make some predictions! I have idolized most of the people on this list, so win or lose, they will all remain legends in my eyes and the eyes of the jiu jitsu community (I hope). That said, I think some people are more ready than others:

  • Roger Gracie vs Buchecha: This one is tough. Buchecha is on fire and is hitting his prime. But Roger is the greatest competitor in sport jiu jitsu history. My prediction is Roger takes this by cross choke from mount.
  • Andre Galvao vs Ryron Gracie: I believe Galvao can beat Ryron on points 99 out of 100 times. However, given Ryron’s approach to this match, he may be very difficult to submit. I believe Galvao catches Ryron early on with a choke from back control.
  • Kron Gracie vs Otavio Sousa: This should be an awesome war. Otavio Sousa has been on fire, much like Buchecha. But this is a submission tournament, and Kron is an expert of finishing people (even when he’s significantly behind on points). I predict Kron will come out on top deep into the 30 minute match with a kneebar submission.
  • Kayron Gracie vs Rafael Lovato Jr: Two great competitors for sure. Rafael has size and experience on his side, and he’s been hungry for that second gi World title. I’m excited to just watch him work against Kayron’s guard. I predict Lovato Jr will win via choke from a dominant position (mount or back).
  • Jeff Glover vs Caio Terra: Rematch! I think Caio will take this one in a crazy scrambling battle of footlocks, fifty fifty, deep half, berimbolos, etc. Caio wins by toe hold late into the match.
  • Dean Lister vs “King” Kevin Casey: Kevin Casey is the one guy on the list I don’t really know in terms of jiu jitsu. He might be good, but he ain’t beating Dean Lister in a submission-only tournament.
  • Jean Jacques Machado vs Nelson Monteiro: I’m not touching this one, lol. 7th degree black belt vs 5th degree black belt. Both are admired and respected in the jiu jitsu community. This remind me of the Renzo Gracie vs Mario Sperry superfight at 2011 ADCC. It was just awesome to watch two legends go at it one more time, past their prime, but still full of the competitive fire that never dies in warriors like that. Alright, fine, I’ll say it, Machado wins.

So to summarize, my picks are Roger, Galvao, Kron, Lovato Jr, Caio, Lister, and  Machado. But I’m not betting on it. In a submission-only tournament, anything could happen.

0 thoughts on “Predictions for Epic Submission Only Tournament: Buchecha, Roger Gracie, Andre Galvao, Ryron Gracie

  1. Kenny

    What I would like to know, is if there will be any place to watch. . . like streaming via the internet… hell even PPV. This I would pay to watch.

    Reply
  2. Ze Grappler

    Souza’s definitely hit his stride at black belt. he looked great in the brown belt mundials up until he made a mistake against Kron, then Kron poured it on, passed, and mounted cross collar choked him.
    Kron is a serious finisher, but Otavio’s looked better and better across successive IBJJF events the last 2 years.
    Can’t wait.

    And props to Roger from coming off a layoff against a locomotive like Buchecha. I see Roger riding out the storm and an early scare or two to get the finish in the second half of the match. I’ve seen Roger switch the momentum against everyone from Jacare to Margarida.

    Reply
    1. Lex Post author

      Roger is only 30 years old. According to Braulio, you don’t hit your peak until 35, lol. So, I think he’ll pull out the win despite the layoff!

      Reply
  3. sgo

    agree with your excitement and that the fights will be epic!

    disagree with some of your picks though:

    1. Roger hasn’t been fighting in the Gi for quite a while. I don’t think he can submit Buchecha, though it will be very interesting to watch. Xande Riveiro I think was the last guy to beat Roger (on points) with the Gi in competition, and he lost to Rodolfo this year, who in turn lost to Buchecha. Point is, you never know, and Buchecha is in his prime, Roger might not.

    2. Galvao is in his prime and more athletic than Ryron so he can push the pace. I think he will beat Ryron, but I don’t think he can choke him out as easily as you think. I think Ryron has more surprises up his sleeve and that may be the wildcard factor, as when Estima surprised Andre.

    3. Otavio won big this year, Kron had a lackluster year.

    4. Kayron’s guard nowadays is almost impassable with the Gi, even with the weight advantage Kayron dominated last year’s Pan Ams, and Lovato did not place that well the last couple years.

    5. Though I am rooting for Caio, where on earth do you get the idea Glover can get submitted via toe hold? Have you seen how flexible his feet are? That will never happen, much less in competition. They fought recently and Glover won convincingly using his weight/strength. I hope Caio can adjust and triangle him.

    I agree completely w/ you on both Lister and JJ, no way those 2 will lose.

    Reply
    1. Lex Post author

      Great break down. I can help but have my mind changed about Roger, Otavio, Kayron, and Caio. And even Galvao… I can’t forget the 30 lbs size advantage of Ryron. Now if it was Ryron vs someone like Rodolfo Vieira (who is same size as him), that would be a different story.

      Reply
    2. Ze Grappler

      Kron was lackluster, but he also did the absolute and like always goes for the finish rather than simply ride out the points (ahem, Malfacine against Gui at the Pans). I saw him grinding away at the Pan Ams in absolute, then did the black belt division at weight. Kron is an animal.

      Reply

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