Metamoris 3 Predictions: A Tale of Awesome Mismatches

Update (Mar 29, 2014): The six video from our panel discussion are now added below.

Metamoris 3 is coming up on Saturday, March 29. It’s 20 minute matches, submission-only. Below is the line-up (along with whether I think it’ll be gi or no-gi). In bold is who I predict will win. I refuse to predict ties, but I know (sadly) several of the matches will likely go the distance without a submission. I’ll be watching this with several friends, and will take a big Russian shot of vodka for every prediction I get wrong.

  1. Zak Maxwell vs Sean Roberts (gi): Zak – armbar
  2. Gui Mendes vs Samir Chantre (gi): Gui – bow and arrow choke
  3. Dean Lister vs Renato “Babalu” Sobral (no-gi): Dean – heelhook
  4. Keenan Cornelius vs Vinny Magalhaes (no-gi): Keenan – triangle
  5. Rafael Mendes vs Clark Gracie (gi): Rafa – armbar
  6. Royler Gracie vs Eddie Bravo (no-gi): Royler – rear naked choke

Do you disagree with any of these predictions? There are some more details below.

I joined a panel of podcasters to talk Metamoris: Raf and Kevin of Verbal Tap, Matt of Aesopian, and Paul of Open Mat Radio and The Journey Podcast. The YouTube links for each of the six videos from that panel discussion are included below:

Zak Maxwell vs Sean Roberts

zakZak was one of my first training partners / instructors. He left the school I was training at after only a couple weeks of me starting there. But I’ve got to know him pretty well through his friends, without ever exchanging more than a few words with him. The guy is a quiet, humble warrior. He is a much more seasoned black belt while still being very young (25 I believe). I don’t see him losing, but I expect this to be one of the more exciting matches, since Sean Roberts has a lot of submissions up his sleeve. Still, with a better guard and better positional control on top, I’m picking Zak with to win by armbar.

Gui Mendes vs Samir Chantre

guilherme-mendesIf you bet against a Mendes brother, you must know something I don’t. Gui is a jiu jitsu mastermind. He is a much more accomplished competitor: a 3x world champ. A tie is possible here, but most likely it’ll be Gui by choke from back control.

Dean Lister vs Renato “Babalu” Sobral

Dean Lister is a philosopher, and that’s thedean-lister-contra-xande-ribeiro-no-metamoris-pro quality I value above all else in a warrior. If this was an MMA fight I’d give Babalu an edge, but even then it’d be a war. But in a 20 minute jiu jitsu match, I don’t see any way that Babalu escapes Dean’s heelhook, and even if he does that is definitely no way that he is catching Dean (one of the hardest guys to submit). So, Dean wins with a heelhook.

Keenan Cornelius vs Vinny Magalhaes

keenan-corneliusAssuming this will be no-gi, both guys are world class. This is artist versus fighter. Like in the song “Devil Went Down to Georgia”, Keenan is Johnny and Vinny is the devil. This will probably be by far the most exciting no-gi match of the tournament. Still, I just don’t see Keenan getting submitted. This is either a draw or Keenan wins by triangle.

Rafael Mendes vs Clark Gracie

rafaClark Gracie has a great offensive guard, so he will be exciting to watch, and he is 30-40 lbs heavier than Rafa, but… Rafa’s last name is Mendes (of the Mendes brothers), and that means you just can’t bet against him, ever. Clark won Pans in 2013, while Rafa won Pans twice, Worlds three times, and medalled at Worlds 5 times. There will be many submission attempts in this match, but in the end Rafa wins by armbar.

Eddie Bravo vs Royler Gracie

roylerThis is unorthodox weird jiu jitsu versus old school orthodox jiu jitsu. This is Goliath coming back after losing to David in 2003. Eddie is full of surprises, heart, flexibility, and creativity. But Royler is a 4x World Champ, 3x ADCC champ, and he has a room full of killers to train with. On the other hand it looks like Eddie is a bit more fired up for this, and he is getting a lot of love from people online, which is understandable. Eddie is a personality and someone that a lot of people connect with. But still, I’m picking Royler to win by rear naked choke.

Answering Reddit Questions

Mismatches that Look Like Good Matches

To me, it looks like every match was brilliantly put together to look like it’s an even match from a distance, but if you look at the actual competition record, it’s a complete mismatch. That’s brilliant because a mismatch is more likely to result in a submission, and that’s what people want to see. But, of course, I could be completely wrong, surprised, and drinking shots all night. To summarize my predictions are:

  1. Zak Maxwell vs Sean Roberts (gi): Zak – armbar
  2. Gui Mendes vs Samir Chantre (gi): Gui – bow and arrow choke
  3. Dean Lister vs Renato “Babalu” Sobral (no-gi): Dean – heelhook
  4. Keenan Cornelius vs Vinny Magalhaes (no-gi): Keenan – triangle
  5. Rafael Mendes vs Clark Gracie (gi): Rafa – armbar
  6. Royler Gracie vs Eddie Bravo (no-gi): Royler – rear naked choke

Do you disagree with any of these predictions?

0 thoughts on “Metamoris 3 Predictions: A Tale of Awesome Mismatches

  1. raf

    I disagree with the royler match up.. Royler did a lot in his competitive days but they are long over .. Older out weighed and facing bravo who is legit on the mats I see bravo by sub again or 20 draw

    Reply
    1. Lex Post author

      You’re starting to put doubts in my head. Royler did sound like his fighting days are long behind him. We’ll see…

      Reply
      1. raf

        Obviously the mans 50!! Royler was the man and dominted his division for. Along time but now older richer and with more responsibility in life how could he be up on everything technique wise in sport bjj if bravo doesn’t a bigger younger stronger and also very talented practicioner doenst dominate ill be very suprised. Either way RafA mendeds has the crown at these lower weights point blank. Case closed

        Reply
    1. Lex Post author

      The wise bet at these events is usually the draw, but that’s not fun. I do think this event has a chance to only have one draw or even zero.

      Reply

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