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Predictions for Epic Submission Only Tournament: Buchecha, Roger Gracie, Andre Galvao, Ryron Gracie

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On October 14th, the world will get to witness seven epic battles at the Metamoris Pro Jiu Jitsu Invitational:

  • Roger Gracie vs Buchecha
  • Andre Galvao vs Ryron Gracie
  • Kron Gracie vs Otavio Sousa
  • Kayron Gracie vs Rafael Lovato Jr
  • Jeff Glover vs Caio Terra
  • Dean Lister vs “King” Kevin Casey
  • Jean Jacques Machado vs Nelson Monteiro

This will be a submission-only tournament (30 minute time limit I believe), and for jiu jitsu fans such as myself this event will be amazing no matter what. Old champion vs new champion, Gracie vs non-Gracie, American vs Brazilian, scrambler vs technician, etc. Like I said: this is epic.

So let’s make some predictions! I have idolized most of the people on this list, so win or lose, they will all remain legends in my eyes and the eyes of the jiu jitsu community (I hope). That said, I think some people are more ready than others:

  • Roger Gracie vs Buchecha: This one is tough. Buchecha is on fire and is hitting his prime. But Roger is the greatest competitor in sport jiu jitsu history. My prediction is Roger takes this by cross choke from mount.
  • Andre Galvao vs Ryron Gracie: I believe Galvao can beat Ryron on points 99 out of 100 times. However, given Ryron’s approach to this match, he may be very difficult to submit. I believe Galvao catches Ryron early on with a choke from back control.
  • Kron Gracie vs Otavio Sousa: This should be an awesome war. Otavio Sousa has been on fire, much like Buchecha. But this is a submission tournament, and Kron is an expert of finishing people (even when he’s significantly behind on points). I predict Kron will come out on top deep into the 30 minute match with a kneebar submission.
  • Kayron Gracie vs Rafael Lovato Jr: Two great competitors for sure. Rafael has size and experience on his side, and he’s been hungry for that second gi World title. I’m excited to just watch him work against Kayron’s guard. I predict Lovato Jr will win via choke from a dominant position (mount or back).
  • Jeff Glover vs Caio Terra: Rematch! I think Caio will take this one in a crazy scrambling battle of footlocks, fifty fifty, deep half, berimbolos, etc. Caio wins by toe hold late into the match.
  • Dean Lister vs “King” Kevin Casey: Kevin Casey is the one guy on the list I don’t really know in terms of jiu jitsu. He might be good, but he ain’t beating Dean Lister in a submission-only tournament.
  • Jean Jacques Machado vs Nelson Monteiro: I’m not touching this one, lol. 7th degree black belt vs 5th degree black belt. Both are admired and respected in the jiu jitsu community. This remind me of the Renzo Gracie vs Mario Sperry superfight at 2011 ADCC. It was just awesome to watch two legends go at it one more time, past their prime, but still full of the competitive fire that never dies in warriors like that. Alright, fine, I’ll say it, Machado wins.

So to summarize, my picks are Roger, Galvao, Kron, Lovato Jr, Caio, Lister, and  Machado. But I’m not betting on it. In a submission-only tournament, anything could happen.

Notes on the World Jiu Jitsu Expo Superfights

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The World Jiu Jitsu Expo brought together some exciting match-ups. There was Glover sporting a gi and goatee. There was the impossible-to-pass guard of Lovato Jr. And there was the confident-bordering-on-cocky top game of Kron. Anyway, here are my three favorite fights from that event along with some notes.

Kron Gracie vs Vitor Estima

Some interesting things from this match are:

  • Kron’s standing pass of Vitor’s closed guard at the beginning (maybe the 1 minute mark). It showed to me that confidence and good balance goes a long way.
  • The reverse body lock at 7:30. I’m pretty sure Kron has not seen this position too often, but he remained calm, keep good posture, and used grips to resume a dominant position.
  • Kron’s smash pass at 9:30 that went on forever. It was interesting to see the fact that Vitor was stopping it by simply holding on to Kron’s left ankle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHq5YjQBWNg

Lucas Leite vs Rafael Lovato Jr

Some interesting things from this match are:

  • Beautiful long step pass attemps at 1:30 by Lucas Leite.
  • The whole match is just guard passing by Lucas Leite. He almost passed a lot of times with the bull pass, but Lovato did not seem worried any of those times. The bull pass has that quality that it looks like you passed, but you really haven’t.
  • The break they get at 8:00 is awesome. I love those breaks. It gives both guys a breather for the final push in the match. It makes cardio a little less of a factor, and more about technique.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2GnQ5DCiSs

Jeff Glover vs Caio Terra

Some interesting things from this match are:

  • Glover is famously a goof ball. Some things he does I think are entertaining, but some (in my eyes) are disrespectful to the sport. In the beginning of the match he turned his back as he often does, and I was glad to see Caio immediate look to capitalize on it.
  • When Glover was on top in the match it was interesting to see him in a stance with his weight on his back foot, kind of like you are when on top of deep half guard. That created a lot of complicated footlock-type situations, but he seemed to be comfortable with it.
  • It was interesting to see left-sided de la riva guard from Caio (e.g. 7:40). Glover seemed to be comfortable with it, and Caio’s half guard, which is of course very impressive.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7eixxm5CLI

Flower Sweep

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Training journal for Thursday at BJJU…

Good training in the afternoon and night. High level black, brown, purple belts packed the mats. There were so many exciting matches going on, both gi and no-gi… with reverse de la riva, inverted guard, one legged x-guard, triangle attempts from every angle, crazy backtakes…

In fundamentals, the technique was the flower sweep, which never really clicked for me until today. The setup is key. Jared put the left foot on the hip and used a bump one way to set up the flower sweep the other way.

The combination of off-balancing one way and then the other way is prevalent in a lot of jiu jitsu techniques but especially for closed guard attacks.

Here’s a video of Rafael Lovato Jr describing the basic flower sweep and his variation of the off-balance to one side as a setup for the sweep. PS: He refers to it as the Xande sweep.

And here’s him pulling it off in competition:

Also, here’s a video of the very entertaining Kurt Osiander showing a variation of the flower sweep: